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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we all throwing, Joe. I'm saying up

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Speaker 1: to cash, that's all.

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Speaker 2: See, most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 2: to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 3: If you want to fall.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway. What is up? Everybody?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by Bat MGM.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and this is our annual

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Speaker 2: NFL Season Long Player Props episode. I'll go about my

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Speaker 2: top three player props for the twenty twenty four season,

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Speaker 2: and so will the man. I'm joined by fellow top

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Speaker 2: five most accurate season long Ranker projector over the past

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Speaker 2: three seasons, the odds maker Don Turner.

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Speaker 1: Sean, what's going on? What's up?

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Speaker 4: I would say, this is, you know, arguably, if not,

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Speaker 4: my favorite pod that we do every year. Is this

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Speaker 4: our sixth annual seventh Daniel?

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Speaker 1: Do you any idea what this is?

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Speaker 4: Six?

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Speaker 1: Six or six? Yeah? I think we're yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: we're around six. Love it? Yeah, man.

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Speaker 2: So, as mentioned, you're gonna give your three best bets

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Speaker 2: for season one props I'm gonna give mine. We'll go

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Speaker 2: back and forth and we'll get right into it, but

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Speaker 2: before we do, just want to remind everybody out there,

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Speaker 2: Action Pro really great subscription that that we offer. Really

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Speaker 2: Action Pro subscription. When you want to sign up, just

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Speaker 2: go to actionnetwork dot com or you can download the

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Speaker 2: free award winning Action Network app.

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Speaker 1: Either way works, but I just.

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Speaker 2: Remember to use the promo code POD two zero for

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Speaker 2: twenty dollars off. Again, it's the only betting subscription that

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Speaker 2: you will ever need. With that being said, Sean, let's

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Speaker 2: get right into it. Give me your first best bet

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Speaker 2: for twenty twenty four NFL season long player props.

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Speaker 4: All right, So I got a gross passing yards prop

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Speaker 4: for you. It's Gardner Minshew under two thousand, nine hundred

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Speaker 4: and twenty five and a half passing yards at minus

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Speaker 4: one thirty. But this is essentially a prop for games

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Speaker 4: started played for Gardner Minshew, and I would say this

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Speaker 4: line implies right around thirteen games started and completed for

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Speaker 4: Gardner Minshew. And this is certainly a tricky prop to

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Speaker 4: project because there's a lot of uncertainty to hear. You know,

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Speaker 4: he was battling second year quarterback eight and O'Connell for

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Speaker 4: the starting job, and you know, head coach Antonio Pierce

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Speaker 4: decided Week two of the preseason was going to be

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Speaker 4: the audition. Gardner Minshew passed the test, I guess, but

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Speaker 4: it was close. And you know he's going into the

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Speaker 4: season with maybe one of the least job securities as

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Speaker 4: a starter that isn't starting over rookie, I would say, so,

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Speaker 4: I think he's going to be on a tightly share

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Speaker 4: and he's you know, Minshew's coming off this solid season

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Speaker 4: last year at the Colts, surprisingly made the Pro Bowl.

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Speaker 4: But it's kind of reminiscent of Jimmy exactly, kind of

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Speaker 4: reminiscent of Jimmy g where you know, he was driving

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Speaker 4: in a very good scheme under Shane Steichen. Now he

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Speaker 4: goes to the Raiders, there's gonna be a tougher situation.

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Speaker 4: And a concerning thing is last year he threw nine interceptions,

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Speaker 4: but based on my expected interception model, he was expected

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Speaker 4: to throw closer to thirteen. So he could see some

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Speaker 4: you know, nasty interception regression which would lead to him

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Speaker 4: getting benched obviously, So he's got a lot of outs

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Speaker 4: for this to hit, injury being one of them. You know,

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Speaker 4: the Raiders are struggling and pivoting Dayan O'Connell again this

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Speaker 4: year as a possibility, plus their top receiver, DeVante Adams

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Speaker 4: has said publicly that he prefers a O'Connell under center,

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Speaker 4: So you could see a situation where if they're struggling,

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Speaker 4: Adams is unhappy. You know, he could be public or

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Speaker 4: private about you know, hey, maybe we should go back

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Speaker 4: to an O'Connell. So I just love all the outs

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Speaker 4: that we have on the under here. Again, he probably

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Speaker 4: needs to play thirteen more games of Clearer this and

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Speaker 4: I'm projecting in closer to eleven starts. But with all

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Speaker 4: the uncertain toy here, this is a great underplay. I

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Speaker 4: would say two thou seven hundred and fifty might be

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Speaker 4: a more fair line. That's kind of you know, appropriately

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Speaker 4: factoring all this risk. So yeah, that's this is by

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Speaker 4: far my favorite passing yards prop right now.

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Speaker 2: I mean, let's see, we got we got death, we've

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Speaker 2: got taxes, we've got Sean Kerner finding a way to

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Speaker 2: invest in Aiden O'Connell, sue or another.

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Speaker 1: You just cannot quit this guy.

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Speaker 2: We gotta get we gotta get out to Vegas and

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Speaker 2: just go see O'Connell standing on the sideline.

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Speaker 1: Literally.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, Well, I mean he started ten games last year,

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Speaker 4: they went five and five. Most of those games were

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Speaker 4: in Pierce we're under center, So I think we're just

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Speaker 4: gonna see a repeat of that this year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Now, it's kind of like similar to in season

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Speaker 2: when you bet, you know, quarterback passing unders when they're

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Speaker 2: like a benching risk in game benching risk. It's the

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Speaker 2: same thing, you know, betting a season long prop for

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Speaker 2: a guy who doesn't really have much job security as

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Speaker 2: mentioned all right, four, my first prop of twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with my guy, Tank Dell over four and

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Speaker 2: a half receiving touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: I have this at a projected median of six.

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Speaker 2: I think the market is way too low on Dell

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Speaker 2: because of the arrival of Tank of Stefan Diggs. Excuse

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Speaker 2: me from the buff flow bills, but I happen to

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Speaker 2: think that Tank Dell's every bit as good as Digs

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Speaker 2: and Nico Collins I think there's a very good chance

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Speaker 2: that Dell could outproduce both of those guys. But remember,

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Speaker 2: this is the guy who only played eleven games as

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Speaker 2: a rookie and really only nine healthy games, and yet

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Speaker 2: he was able to score seven touchdowns receiving. So he's

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Speaker 2: got some out since, you know, in some upside even

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Speaker 2: if he doesn't play a full amount of games or

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Speaker 2: if he takes you know, a distant backseat as the

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Speaker 2: wide receiver three in this offense, six of eight games

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Speaker 2: when he played sixty percent or more of the snaps

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Speaker 2: he caught a touchdown, and four of the six games

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Speaker 2: when he played between sixty and eighty percent. So even

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Speaker 2: if his snap rate you know, never gets to that,

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Speaker 2: you know, true every down roll, this guy is still

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Speaker 2: a threat to catch touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud is elite, so he's got that working for him

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Speaker 2: as well at the quarterback position. And since twenty ten,

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Speaker 2: there's been fourteen rookie wide receiver that scored exactly seven

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Speaker 2: receiving touchdowns and the next season they averaged six point three.

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Speaker 2: Ten of the fourteen went over four and a half,

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Speaker 2: eight of the fourteen went over.

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Speaker 1: Five and a half.

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Speaker 2: So history, you know, the trends are are on your

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Speaker 2: side as well. I think this prop is a full

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Speaker 2: touchdown too low, So I am hammering the over four

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Speaker 2: and a half for my guy, Tank Dell.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I love it, And you've been talking about all

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Speaker 4: off season. And again you know Nico Collins and Sefon

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Speaker 4: Diggs are there, but if either one misses time, you

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Speaker 4: know even more likely that he's going to go off.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I love this one as well.

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Speaker 2: All right, prop number two. Remember we're doing three here,

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Speaker 2: so we've each done one so far. You went with

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Speaker 2: your boy Carter Minshew under I went with Tank Dell

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Speaker 2: over receiving scores.

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Speaker 1: Where are you going with prop number two?

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Speaker 4: Well, if anything, I'm betting on my boy An O'Connell.

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Speaker 4: But similar to you, to you, I'm I'm eager to

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Speaker 4: invest in the guy I've been talking up all off season,

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Speaker 4: and this is more of an exotic market. It's most

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Speaker 4: rushing yards for a rookie this year, and I'm going

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Speaker 4: with Blake Korham at five to one right now are

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Speaker 4: the best odds you can get. But I think this

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Speaker 4: is a fun market and I think this is probably

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Speaker 4: the best way to cash in on a Blake Korn's

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Speaker 4: upside outside of fantasy obviously. But yesterday, you know, we

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Speaker 4: got the report that kyn Williams is expected to return

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Speaker 4: punts this year, and of course, you know, everyone's starting

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Speaker 4: to freak out about it, and you have a wide

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Speaker 4: range of people, you know, like how they're interpreting this news.

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Speaker 4: Some people like me, I'm like, this is par for

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Speaker 4: the course. Mcgay's inconsistent. You never know what the hell

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Speaker 4: is going to do. This could mean nothing, it could

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Speaker 4: be something, who knows. You have other people who are

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Speaker 4: like the Leslie Nielsen everything is fine, Gift with the

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Speaker 4: you know, burning building behind him, being like, oh, this

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Speaker 4: is fine. He's just gonna potentially have some punt return

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Speaker 4: touchdowns to go along with his role, you know. So

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Speaker 4: I just think that this very volatile situation sets up,

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Speaker 4: you know, nicely for a potential quorum ceiling season, which

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Speaker 4: is what this market's all about. So if you look

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Speaker 4: at the other people in this market, Jonathan Brooks is

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Speaker 4: the favorite. That's kind of bizarre to me because he's

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Speaker 4: expected to miss at least the first four games, who knows,

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Speaker 4: possibly more, And once he is back, you know, I

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Speaker 4: don't think he's just gonna be the bell cow back

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Speaker 4: out of the gate. I think maybe towards the end

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Speaker 4: of the season he could be. Again I've said I

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Speaker 4: think he's the best rookie running back in this class,

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Speaker 4: but this season his ceilings kept because he's not playing

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Speaker 4: for their first four games. I think the person with

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Speaker 4: the highest floor is quarterback Jade and Daniels. You know,

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Speaker 4: he has massive rushing upside. He's gonna start every game

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Speaker 4: this year, win healthy, So I think he should probably

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Speaker 4: be the favorite, if I'm being honest, in this market,

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Speaker 4: and Blake Rum should probably be a co favorite or

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Speaker 4: next up. So I like the value we're getting here

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Speaker 4: at five to one with Blake Korum. You know, some

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Speaker 4: other backs like Trey Benson, Braylan Allen, Marshaun Lloyd, they're

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Speaker 4: gonna need an injury to take down this market, and

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Speaker 4: they certainly have that upside. But Quorum, he has that upside,

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Speaker 4: and he has the possibility of to Sean McVay doing

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Speaker 4: Sean McVay things, and you know, unleashing his third round

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Speaker 4: talent this year as the workhorse back.

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot of paths for Korum to hit here.

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Speaker 4: Love the value we're getting here to lead all, you know,

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Speaker 4: rookies and rushing yards at five to one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I love this quick because I was at one

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Speaker 2: of those RAM preseason games and you know, I was

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Speaker 2: expecting to see some some rookies, you know, take the

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Speaker 2: field and lo and behold, Korum's nowhere.

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Speaker 1: To be found.

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Speaker 2: Sean McVay refused to play Korum for the entire preseason,

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Speaker 2: gave him the starter treatment despite the fact that he's

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Speaker 2: never played a live NFL snap, So that that says

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Speaker 2: a lot. And remember, you know, coming into the year

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Speaker 2: last year, it was all about cam Akers and then

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Speaker 2: what happens in Week one. It's like Kyro Williams gets

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Speaker 2: like fifteen carries or something like that, Acres gets twenty.

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Speaker 2: It was just, you know, and then it just everything

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Speaker 2: went crazy. So I could see that happening again with

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Speaker 2: Corum because you know, Sean mavay's given us all the

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Speaker 2: New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, at Virginia, West Virginia,

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Speaker 2: or older. Again when problem call one eight hundred gambler.

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Speaker 1: One more thing. This is exciting.

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Speaker 1: It's totally free to play.

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Speaker 2: Five picks each week Monday night football tiebreaker and it's

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Speaker 2: got the same season long prizes. Top ten finishers get paid,

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Speaker 2: first place get forty thousand dollars. There's thousands in cash

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Speaker 2: up for grabs each and every week.

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Speaker 1: Is there a catch? Nope, we got nuttingnawws.

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Speaker 2: So sign up at favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. For

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Speaker 2: my second prop, I'm going with an under. You know,

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Speaker 2: got to get back on brand here, Tony Power under

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Speaker 2: five and a half rushing touchdowns at minus one twenty.

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Speaker 2: I really like it at any anywhere at five and

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Speaker 2: a half. I have him projected about four point sevens.

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Speaker 2: And as you know, you know that those you know,

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Speaker 2: tents of a point or whatever you want to call it,

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Speaker 2: tents of a touchdown are just so valuable in this market.

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Speaker 2: So the reason I like Power to go under his

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Speaker 2: rushing touchdown prop is, you know, he's coming from the

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Speaker 2: Dallas Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: They were the most high.

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Speaker 2: They scored the most points per game in the league

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Speaker 2: last year, fourth most the year before. So you know,

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Speaker 2: I think there's gonna be a lot of regression in

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Speaker 2: terms of the type of offense that Poward is in.

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Speaker 2: And then you look at the offensive line for Tennessee

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Speaker 2: a big, big downgrade for what Pollard has been running

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Speaker 2: behind his entire career in Dallas. So even though Poward

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Speaker 2: has gone over this in each of the last two seasons.

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Speaker 2: I'm expecting a big downgrade here. And you look at

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Speaker 2: this Titan offense twenty seventh in points per game.

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Speaker 1: That's kind of where I haven't projected this year.

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Speaker 2: I do expect them to be a little better, but

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Speaker 2: it's still hard to project them for, you know, much

263
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Speaker 2: better than like a top you know, outside the top,

264
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Speaker 2: you know, inside the top twenty five or something like that.

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Speaker 2: So Powered, I expect a big downgrade there. And then

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Speaker 2: his career touchdown rate is average, and that's with that

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Speaker 2: that great line, but where he really struggles inside the

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Speaker 2: five yard line, and that's gonna be key because remember

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Speaker 2: he's splitting work with ta J Spears. We don't really

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Speaker 2: know how that's going to turn out. I have Power

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Speaker 2: projected for a sixty forty you know, edge and carries,

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Speaker 2: and I'm still projecting them for just four point seven touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: That's because twenty seven point six percent rate of touchdowns

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Speaker 2: inside the five for Poward that is well below the

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Speaker 2: league average, which is around forty six percent, so about

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Speaker 2: nineteen points below league average, and that's not going to

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Speaker 2: get it done. And pff rents the Titan O line

278
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Speaker 2: bottom three heading into the year. So I'm expecting him

279
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Speaker 2: to get stuffed a lot to go on, and I

280
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Speaker 2: don't know if he's going to give you any of

281
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Speaker 2: those long touchdowns that he was known for earlier in

282
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Speaker 2: his career, because he just hasn't looked the same since

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Speaker 2: that injury in the playoffs against the Niners a couple

284
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Speaker 2: of years ago. And now he's getting up there in

285
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Speaker 2: age as well, so fading powered under five and a

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Speaker 2: half Russian scores nice.

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Speaker 1: I like this one.

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Speaker 4: And last year I told you that I did some

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Speaker 4: research on, you know, taking the unders on these running

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Speaker 4: backs that are kind of in a committee going into

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Speaker 4: the season, and I think, you know, Pollard certainly qualifies.

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Speaker 4: I think he's going to be in a committee with

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Speaker 4: Taj Spears. Unfortunately, the four that I took last year,

294
00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:39,880
Speaker 4: they played all seventeen games, every single snap, they were

295
00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:41,960
Speaker 4: fully healthy all season long, and they still.

296
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Speaker 1: Barely cleared it.

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Speaker 4: But my point being that these typically, you know, cash

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Speaker 4: out the under at a very high rate, and Pollard

299
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Speaker 4: checks that box here as well.

300
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I see Poward starting to get a little bit

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Speaker 2: of hype even in Fantasy League, you know, I see

302
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Speaker 2: his ADP starting to climb. So I always want to

303
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Speaker 2: kind of bet against these hype guys, so hopefully we'll

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Speaker 2: get some you know, hype on on a few of

305
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Speaker 2: those other guys too, like Zach Moss and Zamir White,

306
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Speaker 2: because I'd love to fade them as well.

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Speaker 1: Already.

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Speaker 2: You know we're I think we're both fading Tyron Williams. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: that's gonna be very profitable. But before we get into

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Speaker 2: our final NFL twenty twenty four season long player prop,

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Speaker 2: just want to mention that our twenty twenty four Fantasy

312
00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:31,280
Speaker 2: Football draft kit is available right now over at Fantasy

313
00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,280
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314
00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:36,280
Speaker 2: of our rankings, all of our projections.

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Speaker 1: You can download a.

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Speaker 2: Spreadsheet of our actual stat projections for each player for

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Speaker 2: the season, so you can use that. You could kind

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Speaker 2: of to customize, you know, your projections and kind of

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Speaker 2: tweak them. You could use them to player prop just

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00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,880
Speaker 2: like we're doing right now. And remember we're both top

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00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:56,720
Speaker 2: five in the Fantasy Pro season long accuracy contests over

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00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,840
Speaker 2: the past three seasons combined, so you definitely want to

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00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:03,840
Speaker 2: be using our projections for your fantasy needs, your your

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Speaker 2: player prop needs. You put a lot of work into

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Speaker 2: let's close it out strong your final of three best

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Speaker 2: bets for NFL twenty twenty four season long player prop

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Speaker 2: Sean Kerner, which you got.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going with a defensive player prop here. I'm

335
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Speaker 4: going with Alex Highsmith of the Steelers to go over

336
00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:57,399
Speaker 4: seven point seven five sacks at minus one twenty. You know,

337
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Speaker 4: Heismith followed up a twelve sacks season in twenty twenty

338
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Speaker 4: two with a pretty disappointing seven sax season last year. However,

339
00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:10,400
Speaker 4: he was very unlucky to only have seven sacks last year.

340
00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:15,720
Speaker 4: His underlying data was absolutely elite. He ranked seventh overall

341
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Speaker 4: and total pressures on the season. Nobody in that ballpark

342
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:23,000
Speaker 4: had less than ten sacks, is to put it in perspective,

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Speaker 4: and he had the third most quick pressures according to

344
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:30,040
Speaker 4: next Gen stats, which are pressures that happened within the

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Speaker 4: first three seconds, and those happen to be more predictive

346
00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,800
Speaker 4: than just general pressures. And he was the only two

347
00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:38,720
Speaker 4: defensive players that had more than him were Micah Parsons

348
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 4: and Miles Garrett. So that's kind of the company he's

349
00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:44,320
Speaker 4: in when it comes to these like underlying metrics. So

350
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Speaker 4: based on my expected SAX model, I had him getting

351
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Speaker 4: closer to eleven and a half expected sacks last year.

352
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Speaker 4: So again, you know, four and a half below what

353
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Speaker 4: he was expected. The market is clearly not you know,

354
00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 4: adjusting for that correctly here. So I think he's going

355
00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:00,959
Speaker 4: to bounce back and have a ten plus sax season.

356
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,399
Speaker 4: You know, if you can't, you should absolutely take this

357
00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:07,359
Speaker 4: better if you can get it if not, And they're

358
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,840
Speaker 4: offering you know, most sacks in the season, he's one

359
00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,440
Speaker 4: hundred to one at most books take that as well.

360
00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,439
Speaker 4: I think he's offering value there. I'd probably bet that

361
00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,120
Speaker 4: down to sixty to one or so. But he is

362
00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:21,560
Speaker 4: up there in the upper echelon. You know, he's playing

363
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:23,399
Speaker 4: with one of the best guys in TJ. Watt, but

364
00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:25,399
Speaker 4: he is way up there when it comes to the

365
00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 4: underlying data. I look at when it comes to sacks,

366
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Speaker 4: and it wouldn't shock me fands up having the most

367
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:32,760
Speaker 4: saxes here. But either way, I think investing in Alex

368
00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 4: Heismiths over on his saxes here.

369
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Speaker 1: Is definitely a good way to go.

370
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,040
Speaker 2: Oh baby, I love when you start talking dirty all

371
00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:42,399
Speaker 2: types of you know, pressure rate predicted sacrate and this

372
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:44,800
Speaker 2: is great. I mean this was great because not only

373
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Speaker 2: did you give out a pick, but you kind of

374
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 2: told people you know how to fish, so to speak,

375
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,159
Speaker 2: because you know, just to recap of people if you

376
00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:53,399
Speaker 2: out there and you kind of missed that.

377
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:55,880
Speaker 1: What Sean is saying is that.

378
00:19:57,720 --> 00:20:02,239
Speaker 2: Future sac rate is better addicted by cast pressure rate

379
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:04,800
Speaker 2: than past sack rate. So it's better to just look

380
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,720
Speaker 2: at pressures when you want to predict sacks, then looking

381
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 2: at you know, the past sack data itself, and then

382
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:14,160
Speaker 2: you know, in regards to quick pressures being more predictive,

383
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 2: that's because if if a pressure happens like after the

384
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,280
Speaker 2: three second mark, it's probably because a quarterback is just indecisive.

385
00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:24,960
Speaker 2: He's just holding the ball to loll or he's scrambling around.

386
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 2: Think about adjustin fields who just you know, looks every

387
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,760
Speaker 2: which way before he decides what he's gonna do. Or

388
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,159
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson, who just you know, looks downfield and then

389
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 2: just looks straight at the ground until he gets sacked.

390
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:37,280
Speaker 2: You know, that's what you kind of think of when

391
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:39,960
Speaker 2: you think of those slower pressures. So, uh, you know,

392
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:42,639
Speaker 2: not your boy Aidan O'Connell taking those what was it

393
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:46,879
Speaker 2: eight sacks against each other? God, how to slide that

394
00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:47,360
Speaker 2: on in there?

395
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 1: But no, that was that was really that was really

396
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 1: great stuff.

397
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,200
Speaker 2: So I hope people out there uh caught that because

398
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 2: you can use that information even if you if you

399
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,719
Speaker 2: can't make the pick or you don't want to make

400
00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,400
Speaker 2: the pick. I think that was really really strong information there.

401
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 2: All right, I'll close it out and my final prop.

402
00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:08,119
Speaker 2: I feel like I bet this one before, but Lamar

403
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 2: Jackson under five and a half rushing touchdowns and the

404
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 2: five and a half is really important.

405
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:15,639
Speaker 1: So I don't want it at four and a half.

406
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:19,639
Speaker 2: That's where I haven't projected, So I am about a

407
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 2: touchdown under the line, but I have seen it at

408
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 2: certain spots.

409
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 1: At four and a half. You don't want it there.

410
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 1: You want the five and a half.

411
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 2: He's been under that each of the last three seasons,

412
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 2: five last year three in twenty twenty two to two

413
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one, and he only played twelve games

414
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one. In twenty twenty two, but even

415
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 2: if you pro rate his touchdowns per game to a

416
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 2: full seventeen game season, he still wouldn't have cleared this number.

417
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:49,359
Speaker 2: And I think the big reason why is because he's

418
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,919
Speaker 2: not running near the goal line quite as much as

419
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 2: he was early in his career. So his first two

420
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:59,400
Speaker 2: full years as a starter, he averaged one carry per

421
00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 2: game in side the ten. Since then last three years

422
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 2: just point seven to three carries per game inside the ten.

423
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 2: And I think he's gonna trend down even more this

424
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 2: year because he's swimmed down. He's playing about fifteen pounds

425
00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 2: wider than last season, reportedly thirty pounds wider than you know,

426
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 2: a couple of seasons ago. And he says he wants

427
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 2: to be faster and not fatigue as much. But I

428
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:23,680
Speaker 2: think that's gonna help his overall rushing efficiency, you know,

429
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 2: inside the twenties. But the one area it doesn't really

430
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 2: help is down by the goal line when you have

431
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 2: all those big bodies. And the other thing is they

432
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 2: just signed probably the best goal line back in the

433
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 2: National Football League in Derrick Henry. So when you get

434
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 2: down there, why are you going to risk a two

435
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 2: hundred pound Lamar Jackson getting hit when you could just

436
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 2: put it in a chest of you know, big Burley,

437
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 2: old Derrick Henry back there and watch him waltz in

438
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 2: to the end zone. So I think it's gonna be

439
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:54,120
Speaker 2: the fourth year in a row where Lamar Jackson ends

440
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 2: up with five or fewer rushing touchdowns. And you also

441
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,879
Speaker 2: have some additional upside here in the form of you know,

442
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 2: miss games. Last year Jackson had five and sixteen games,

443
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,160
Speaker 2: but as I mentioned, both seasons before that, he only

444
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 2: played twelve games, and he often the Ravens are usually

445
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,159
Speaker 2: so good that he usually ends up resting in the

446
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 2: final week of the season. That's happened a couple of

447
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 2: times as well, So a lot of ways for Jackson

448
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 2: to miss games and the swim down weight. I also,

449
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 2: you know, maybe he feels better on a game to

450
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 2: game basis, but that could also lead to more injuries

451
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 2: as well. So a lot to like here. With Jackson

452
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 2: under five and a half rushing scores, again, you really

453
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 2: want that five and a half because I'm projecting four

454
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 2: and a half. So at five and a half, I

455
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,879
Speaker 2: don't really I take it pretty much to any juice,

456
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 2: but I just don't want I don't want it at

457
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:40,359
Speaker 2: four and a half.

458
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 1: Man.

459
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 4: This is our sixth annual prop show, and I think

460
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 4: this might be the third time you've given this out

461
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 4: and you kind of nailed it. It was after a

462
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 4: seven touchdown season twenty twenty. You've kind of been hitting

463
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,439
Speaker 4: it since then, and he's stayed under every year since.

464
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,679
Speaker 4: Like you said, they just brought in Derrick Henry. He lost,

465
00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 4: you know, quite a bit of weight in the offseason.

466
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,400
Speaker 4: That is so yeah. I love this one.

467
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:05,640
Speaker 2: All right, Dad is going to wrap it up here.

468
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 2: You know, our three player props, just to recap, Sean

469
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 2: went Gardner Minshew under two thousand, nine hundred and twenty

470
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 2: five and a half passing yards. He went Blake Corra

471
00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,959
Speaker 2: most rushing yards for a rookie at plus five hundred,

472
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 2: and he went Alex high Smith of the Steelers over

473
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 2: seven point seventy five sacks at minus one twenty. My

474
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 2: three were tanked out over four and a half receiving touchdowns.

475
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 2: Then I went with Lamar No before Labar went Tony

476
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 2: Poward under five and a half rushing scores and then

477
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 2: Lamar under five and a half rushing scores as well.

478
00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 2: So that is going to wrap it up for the

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00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 2: Action Network podcast presented by Bett MDM. I am your host,

480
00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 2: Chris Raybond. Be sure to check out Fantasy Labs dot

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00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:06,120
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488
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490
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:33,440
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491
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