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Speaker 1: It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros.

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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's me Joey Paid,

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Speaker 1: Joe Pisapia. And it's time to look ahead because if

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Speaker 1: we don't, we might get hurt. Everybody got hurt in

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Speaker 1: week seven, so it's time to kind of push that

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Speaker 1: aside for a moment, look ahead to wek ape. We

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Speaker 1: had some returns in the league also, most of which

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Speaker 1: did bear some fruit. We're gonna talk about all those

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Speaker 1: and more right here on the podcast today. Of course,

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Speaker 1: Pat Fitzmorris is joining us. Matthew Friedman joining us. Matthew

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Speaker 1: already staring very intently at the stats. You know already

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Speaker 1: he's got a lot to say. Things have been burning

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Speaker 1: inside of him for the last twelve hours.

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Speaker 2: So let's get it all out.

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Speaker 1: Before we do, I want to remind you all we

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Speaker 1: come to you from bet MGM, the King of Sports Books.

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Speaker 2: That's our sponsor.

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Speaker 1: Download that bet MGM app right now and go ahead

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Speaker 1: and start placing your bets. Gentlemen, let's just kick things

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Speaker 1: off here and just jump right into the pool, because

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Speaker 1: we have got the Baltimore Ravens facing the Tampa Bay

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Speaker 1: Buccaneers and oh my goodness, maybe, oh maybe Tom Brady

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Speaker 1: stated the dance too long. The Buccaneers are at home.

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Speaker 1: They are one point underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens, as

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Speaker 1: they should be with the way they've played of late

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Speaker 1: forty three and a half is the number if you

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Speaker 1: like the Tampa Bay Bucks on the money line, it's

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Speaker 1: even money. So Matthew Friedman, let's start with you. Tom

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Speaker 1: Brady and company. I don't know if they're missing the

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Speaker 1: Bruce arians factor. I don't know if they just thought

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Speaker 1: that things were gonna be handed to them. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what's going on. But when you lose to the Steelers,

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Speaker 1: he used the Carolina Panthers back to back weeks, is

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Speaker 1: going to take its toll in Vegas on you. So

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Speaker 1: do you believe this is enough of a toll or

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Speaker 1: do you think that the raven should be favored by more?

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Speaker 3: Okay, So, a couple of general statements on the show.

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Speaker 3: For the past few weeks, I've sort of had this like, ah,

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Speaker 3: I wish I would have gotten on this line sooner

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Speaker 3: type of thing. It was this and look ahead and

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Speaker 3: I didn't. So this this past weekend, I was super

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Speaker 3: aggressive in betting look ahead lines when I thought I

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Speaker 3: had an edge based on my projection. So in the

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Speaker 3: look ahead market, this was Baltimore plus three and I

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Speaker 3: bet it. So like now, my perspective is probably skewed

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Speaker 3: because I'm just like whatever, I don't care on this game.

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Speaker 2: I got the best of the line. I'm just sitting here.

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Speaker 3: But I think this number and maybe I've been slow

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Speaker 3: to adjust, but I think this number is off. I

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Speaker 3: still think Tampa Bay should be a slight home favorite.

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Speaker 3: I have this point five minus point five for Tampa

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Speaker 3: Bay at home. That said, like, I wouldn't feel good

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Speaker 3: about betting it right now, but this did open on

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Speaker 3: the early Sunday night line at one and a half.

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Speaker 3: It has moved down to one at most books, so

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Speaker 3: it is starting to move towards Tampa Bay, which I

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Speaker 3: think is the right movement. But that said, like in

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Speaker 3: a big picture, since Baltimore looks like the better team,

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Speaker 3: and I have this going slightly towards Tampa Bay, but

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Speaker 3: I don't feel good about that at all.

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Speaker 1: Now, speaking of returns, Gus Edwards comes back here for

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Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens. Finally, the Ravens hold on to a

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Speaker 1: lead by the skin of their teeth basically. So, Pat,

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Speaker 1: it's hard to have a lot of confidence in either

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Speaker 1: of these teams right now, but it does feel like

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Speaker 1: the Ravens with a better squad at this point. What

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Speaker 1: are your thoughts on this line early on?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, maybe they're a little better and they've played a

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Speaker 4: lot of close games so they're kind of battle tested.

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Speaker 5: But this is the spot where I.

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Speaker 4: Kind of like to take a team coming off that

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Speaker 4: humiliating game. And maybe, I don't know, maybe the Bucks

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Speaker 4: have been a little overvalued. They have been ranked fairly

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Speaker 4: high in People's power rankings all season. There there's still

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Speaker 4: sixth in DVOA though. So this Buccaneers team, as bad

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Speaker 4: as they were in, as flat as they came out

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Speaker 4: against the Panthers, and maybe they just thought they were

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Speaker 4: going to be able to, you know, walk away with

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Speaker 4: a victory without much effort. In week seven, they're still

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Speaker 4: good enough to do something about this bad taste of

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Speaker 4: defeat in their mouths. So I agree with Friedman, like

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Speaker 4: in the early projections, I mean, I've got Tampa as

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Speaker 4: a one point favorite here, so I kind of am

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Speaker 4: inclined to take them and at a line this small,

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Speaker 4: I'm probably just going to take them on the money line,

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Speaker 4: and you know, I think I think we'll get a

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Speaker 4: better performance. It's from then in the week eight and

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Speaker 4: we got in week seven.

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Speaker 5: Which would be.

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Speaker 4: Hard to pull off a stink bomb quite of that

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Speaker 4: magnitude two straight weeks.

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Speaker 1: I feel like if a replay last week's show, though,

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Speaker 1: we said the same thing when they lost in Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: and we thought, well, it's okay, we're gonna go beat

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Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers, and well that didn't really watch the

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Speaker 1: stink off now did it just got worse? Let's get

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Speaker 1: to the next one on here, we've got the Denver Broncos.

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Speaker 1: We assume without Russell Wilson. I can only imagine it's

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Speaker 1: going to be a few weeks for him. Mark Rippin's nephew,

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Speaker 1: I believe it is Brett Rippon under center.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Not good enough against the Jets. The Jacksonville Jaguars had

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Speaker 1: their opportunity, just kind of fell a little short at

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Speaker 1: the goal line there. Jacksonville falls to two and five.

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Speaker 1: Denver is a two and five. This one's in Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: Four and a half is the numbers on the Jacksonville side.

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Speaker 1: They are the favorites at home, as they should be

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Speaker 1: at this point. Now, the Denver defense is pretty solid.

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Speaker 1: The number is forty, and if you like the upset,

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Speaker 1: Denver is plus one seventy on the money line. Pat,

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Speaker 1: when you look at this one here, that number four

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Speaker 1: already really jumps out to me. It feels like an

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Speaker 1: under But is that an illusion?

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Speaker 3: Sorry, just quick point of order. This game is actually

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Speaker 3: at Wimbley. It's it's all that games. It's a London game,

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Speaker 3: but second home, second.

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Speaker 1: Say, although it might be more of a home field

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Speaker 1: advantage for the Jacksonville Jaguars. My apologies, you're one hundred

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Speaker 1: percent right. Is at nine to thirty am Eastern. By

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Speaker 1: the way, so again, the Jacksonville Jaguars in their second

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Speaker 1: home London. I apologies, So Pat, same question, the forty

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Speaker 1: Is it low enough?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we might get bacon with our breakfast next Sunday,

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Speaker 4: but we will not get offense with our breakfast next Sunday.

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Speaker 4: So yes, Joe, I feel the same way like at

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Speaker 4: this number, I have no interest in betting this game.

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Speaker 4: Maybe I don't know, maybe a little bit of interest

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Speaker 4: in Denver. It seems like this is skewed a bit

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Speaker 4: too much towards the Jaguars and giving them, I don't know,

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Speaker 4: a little too much credit.

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Speaker 5: But I don't know how.

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Speaker 4: This game gets to forty because both of these teams

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Speaker 4: are so much better defensively than they are offensive.

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Speaker 5: And you know, even though I don't know that, there's a.

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Speaker 4: Discernible drop off from Russell Wilson to Brett Reppan at

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Speaker 4: this point, like especially though if it's ripping, I'll feel

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Speaker 4: even more confident about betting the under here. And I'm

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Speaker 4: kind of surprised they said it as high as forty,

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Speaker 4: realizing they you know, we may may well again get

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Speaker 4: Brett reppin in week eight. So I don't know, don't

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Speaker 4: think this one gets to forty.

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Speaker 2: How about you, Friedman?

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Speaker 1: And it's funny I made a mistake, but really your

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Speaker 1: correction is something we should all consider. This is kind

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Speaker 1: of like their second home. I mean, they do have

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Speaker 1: a fan base out there in Jacksonville. I might even

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Speaker 1: wonder if this is more of an energetic feel for

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Speaker 1: the Jaguars that is playing in Jacksonville at times. To

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Speaker 1: be honest with you, it's a it's a big, giant venue.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of pomp and circumstance around it when

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Speaker 1: they show up. So do you think actually that has

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Speaker 1: any advantage here for the Jaguars with that four points?

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Speaker 3: Maybe I did, like I did, toy with the idea

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Speaker 3: of actually giving them a home field advantage because they

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Speaker 3: do play in Undid every year, but there's like there's

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Speaker 3: no continuity in terms of like the coaching staff. So

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Speaker 3: I just it still doesn't feel like it should be

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Speaker 3: a home field advantage. But I definitely took in the

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Speaker 3: look ahead, which that'll be a common refrain under forty

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Speaker 3: and a half.

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Speaker 2: I think this is an undergame.

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Speaker 3: I have this projected at let me see thirty eight

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Speaker 3: point four, So I do think there's value here on

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Speaker 3: the under, even at the line of forty, which we

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Speaker 3: see now. I would definitely that's the way I would

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Speaker 3: be approaching this, because man, I don't want to be

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Speaker 3: betting on the Broncos, and that is where I do

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Speaker 3: see a little bit of value here, and that's assuming

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Speaker 3: that it's Ripping instead of Russell Wilson. But I don't

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Speaker 3: want to be betting on them. I did that last week.

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Speaker 3: I did that last week, and I hated myself for it,

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Speaker 3: and I rightfully hated myself for it. I'm not doing

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Speaker 3: it again. I swear to you for the rest of

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Speaker 3: the year, I am not betting on the Broncos.

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Speaker 1: I don't think I think I think last year, last week,

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Speaker 1: I should say, I don't think you'd enough confidence in

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Speaker 1: that Jets defense. So Jets defense maybe three levels of

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Speaker 1: the d Qwentnin Williams, CJ. Mosley, Sauce guard. There's not

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Speaker 1: a lot of teams that have somebody who's a stud

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Speaker 1: at each level of the defense. And when you have that,

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Speaker 1: that's a really big deal. And you know, I can't

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Speaker 1: believe it. I'm like the defender of the Jets on

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Speaker 1: this show every week. I don't know how that ever happened,

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Speaker 1: but my goodness, I'm embarrassed. All right, Let's get to

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Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers coming off their second win, that's right,

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Speaker 1: second win of the year against the Atlanta Falcons.

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Speaker 2: The Falcons are three and four.

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Speaker 1: I know, this is the most exciting game of the

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Speaker 1: week that you've all got circled. The Falcons are six

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites at home. Forty one and

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Speaker 1: a half is the number if you like the Panthers

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Speaker 1: to just keep rolling. Plus two fifteen. Now we don't

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Speaker 1: know if we're going to get Sam Darnold back in

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Speaker 1: this game, and I don't know if that makes a

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Speaker 1: difference or not. But I don't know about you, Friedman,

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Speaker 1: this one seems.

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Speaker 2: Off to me.

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Speaker 1: Six and a half is a lot of juice on

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Speaker 1: the side for the Atlanta Falcons, a team that I know.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes they show up, at other times they don't, and

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Speaker 1: when they don't it gets ugly. I feel like this

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Speaker 1: is a little bit too much respect. What are your

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Speaker 1: thoughts here?

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Speaker 3: Maybe I don't know where Fitz has it. I have

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Speaker 3: this at six point twenty five, so very close. This

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Speaker 3: is one of the few games where I don't have

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Speaker 3: a position and I don't really anticipate taking a position

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Speaker 3: because I think Carolina they were the right side last week.

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Speaker 3: I did have a bet on them. I'm not really

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Speaker 3: buying it two weeks in a row. I think it

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Speaker 3: will be PJ. Walker who starts for them. You know,

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Speaker 3: he executed the offense better than we've seen any quarterback

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Speaker 3: execute the offense for them this year with loads muchas

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Speaker 3: and say much, but it says something at least, so

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Speaker 3: I think he gets another start. But I'm not really

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Speaker 3: desirous to be betting on either of these teams and

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Speaker 3: the total forty one. I have it at forty point seven,

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Speaker 3: So in the same neighborhood. This is one of the

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Speaker 3: few stay away games for me.

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Speaker 1: Patter, you have the same mind bit of a stay

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Speaker 1: away for you on the side.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, on the total, I like the under.

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Speaker 4: Like the Panthers with no Christian McCaffrey, it was like

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Speaker 4: they had a jolt before the you know, one of

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Speaker 4: those things where maybe rigor mortis doesn't set in for

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Speaker 4: a little while until after.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, like I I don't know, this is another one.

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Speaker 4: I just like, how does this game get to forty

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Speaker 4: especially when we saw how stubborn Arthur Smith is about

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Speaker 4: sticking to the run, like get quickly getting down double

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Speaker 4: digits in week seven and just like refusing to throw

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Speaker 4: Marcus Marioto still attempts what thirteen passes. So this game

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Speaker 4: is definitely going to play to a certain script, and

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Speaker 4: you can bet the Panthers aren't going to be pass

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Speaker 4: heavy either. Yeah, this seems like it's gonna be a

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Speaker 4: quick game, mercifully for anyone who actually has to watch it.

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Speaker 3: Okay, you know what I will I will second Pat's

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Speaker 3: statement on this. If it's anything for me, it's the under,

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Speaker 3: it's under or nothing.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it sounds like.

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Speaker 1: It's anything for you guys. It's actually the rushing props

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Speaker 1: of this game. Look for our gear, look for form,

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Speaker 1: especially if Juba is out.

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Speaker 5: Yeah. Yeah, And Friedman, you asked what I had said.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I've got it at exactly six and a half,

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Speaker 4: so I don't see any value here. But I've got

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Speaker 4: the total projected at thirty nine, so I definitely see

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Speaker 4: value there.

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Speaker 1: So mad Pat, Because two weeks ago, I thought we're

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Speaker 1: going to get the Carolina Panthers coaching firing bounds, but

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Speaker 1: it's dead. We got the bounds after the Christophercaffrey trade.

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Speaker 1: It's just a week behind.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean like they're going through this trauma and

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Speaker 4: it's kind of hard to figure out where like there's

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Speaker 4: gonna be psychologically exactly, I don't know, but yeah, would.

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Speaker 1: Be Dj Moore finally we saw finally and he almost

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Speaker 1: died doing it or Dj Moore, I mean, I was

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Speaker 1: so worried about him. Was like, great, he got it

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Speaker 1: at what cost? There he is laying on the ground

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Speaker 1: there right under I mean he was practically underneath the

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Speaker 1: stadium there in the corner of there after the end zone.

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Speaker 2: Oh my goodness. All right, let's get to the.

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Speaker 1: Next guy here. It's the the Justin Fields led Chicago Bears.

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Speaker 1: Will see what they bring to the table in New

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Speaker 1: England tonight, but it's regardless, we're gonna look ahead. They

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Speaker 1: are ten point underdogs traveling to Dallas. The Cowboys pick

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Speaker 1: up a victory. After a sluggish start to the game,

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Speaker 1: things started to click. Zeke had some good running this game.

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Speaker 1: Dak started to shake the dust and the rust off.

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Speaker 1: So they are ten point favorites. Big number. Forty two

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Speaker 1: and a half is the over under.

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Speaker 5: Pat.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with you on this one here. Ten is

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Speaker 1: a big number. Do you think the Dallas Cowboys are

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Speaker 1: up to this task? Because defense they've been very strong

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Speaker 1: this year, and now with backback, it certainly looks like

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Speaker 1: points are also now on the table.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I do think this is a numbers

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Speaker 4: still as big as it is, I don't think it's

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Speaker 4: big enough to go any other way. But on the

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Speaker 4: Cowboys here, and it's just two teams in very different modes,

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Speaker 4: And I think the Bears are just kind of you know,

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Speaker 4: they are in a clear rebuild here. Dallas has been

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Speaker 4: like playing fantastic, feeling great about themselves.

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Speaker 5: Even when they lost to you know, their.

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Speaker 4: Division rival, the Eagles in Week six, they did so

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Speaker 4: kind of respectably, like getting digging a hole for themselves early,

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Speaker 4: coming back late, took care of business in Week seven,

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Speaker 4: and man, I mean we saw this defense just totally.

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Speaker 5: Harassed Jared Goff yesterday. The Cowboys.

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Speaker 4: They're number one in the league in sacks, They're number

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Speaker 4: one in the league in pressures. I mean, they are

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Speaker 4: just making life hell for opposing quarterbacks. And we've seen

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Speaker 4: that the Bears have like maybe the worst offensive line

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Speaker 4: in the league, Like as little as they have thrown

296
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Speaker 4: this year, is still under constant duress whenever he throws,

297
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Speaker 4: even though you know, the defense is not like it

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Speaker 4: has no reason to prepare for the pass like that.

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Speaker 4: The Bears are so ridiculously run heavy. But I just like,

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Speaker 4: I don't see how the Bears do any business and

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Speaker 4: offense against this Cowboys defense.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, especially with Michael Parsons and Marcus Lawrence breathing down

303
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Speaker 1: your throat now thinking about this too tonight, should they

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Speaker 1: have an embarrassing showing against the Patriots, this number could grow. Friedman,

305
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Speaker 1: is this the time to jump on the ten before

306
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Speaker 1: it goes to eleven.

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Speaker 3: I actually bet this the other way, and I bet

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Speaker 3: it at ten, thinking because I have this projected at

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Speaker 3: nine and a half, so you know, I will do

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Speaker 3: whatever I can to bet against the Cowboys. It's again

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Speaker 3: disease and I'm saying, but you know, this is a team,

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Speaker 3: and I bet this on the look ahead, so I

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Speaker 3: wasn't taking Week seven into account. But the Cowboys, they

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Speaker 3: easily could have lost this game to the Lion. You know,

315
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Speaker 3: like their defense is great, their offense is still finding

316
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Speaker 3: its way, and you know some of that is maybe

317
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Speaker 3: rust with Dak coming back, whatever it is, but the

318
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Speaker 3: Cowboys offense really did not look good. The Bears, I think,

319
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Speaker 3: actually have a decent defense. Ten is a lot of points,

320
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Speaker 3: and I think the Cowboys are one of the few

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Speaker 3: good teams in the league. Like I do, I have

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Speaker 3: them power rated as the number four team. I think

323
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Speaker 3: they're not all that far off from the Eagles. But

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Speaker 3: there are very few teams in the NFL this season

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Speaker 3: who should be favored by a touchdown or more, and

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Speaker 3: I just don't know if the Cowboys are quite in

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Speaker 3: that tier yet and based on what happens tonight, I

328
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Speaker 3: could be hating myself tomorrow with this position, and I

329
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Speaker 3: feel like I probably will be. But this again feels

330
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Speaker 3: like the Carolina Panthers position going against the Buccaneers of

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Speaker 3: just you know, a double digit underdog, just bet it

332
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Speaker 3: and hold your nose, knowing that more often than not

333
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Speaker 3: this season that bet is going to cash.

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Speaker 1: All right, Uh, let's see tomorrow if you hate yourself

335
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Speaker 1: in the morning.

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Speaker 2: The Miami Dolphins I always had myself. It just depends

337
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Speaker 2: on the reasons.

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Speaker 1: Why we recorded this out. It's the best version of Freedman.

339
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Speaker 1: It's my favorite podcast version. The Miami Dolphins four and three,

340
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Speaker 1: picking up a win last night. They are three and

341
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Speaker 1: a half point favorites on the road against Detroit. The

342
00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,880
Speaker 1: Lion's going in the wrong direction. Not enough grit, I guess.

343
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Speaker 1: At the end of the day. They are now one

344
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Speaker 1: in five again at hall and three and a half

345
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Speaker 1: point dogs. Fifty is the number for this game. A

346
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Speaker 1: pretty hefty number here, especially with that Detroit Lions defense

347
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Speaker 1: on hand. If you like the weird upset plus one

348
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Speaker 1: forty five on the money line. But freeven, what do

349
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Speaker 1: you see when you look at the look ahead numbers

350
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Speaker 1: here early on, is there any value on either side

351
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Speaker 1: of Miami Detroit?

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Speaker 3: I have this at three point twenty five, so I'm

353
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Speaker 3: not really seeing any value here. And by the way,

354
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Speaker 3: shout out on fits for getting the pick right in

355
00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:55,080
Speaker 3: the Sunday night football game of Pittsburgh versus Miami. It

356
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Speaker 3: was such a tilting game because it really could have

357
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Speaker 3: gone either way, you know, in terms of how that

358
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Speaker 3: game played out.

359
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Speaker 1: But I don't see any if Pittsburgh maybe he actually

360
00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,680
Speaker 1: caught an interception or two, it would have gone another way. Possibly.

361
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Speaker 1: You can't have those moments. You can't drop those moments,

362
00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:13,600
Speaker 1: no pun intended, like, you just can't do it. Those

363
00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,120
Speaker 1: are the ones that change the momentum game. And when

364
00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:19,440
Speaker 1: you get more than one and you fail twice, that's it.

365
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Speaker 1: You just typically don't come back from that. All right,

366
00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:23,640
Speaker 1: go ahead, early value, You see none?

367
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:25,240
Speaker 2: Anything else you want to add to this bad point?

368
00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:25,360
Speaker 5: No?

369
00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:26,040
Speaker 2: I see nothing?

370
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:28,680
Speaker 1: Okay, Pat fitz Morris, But the glasses on what do

371
00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:29,800
Speaker 1: you see? Yeah?

372
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Speaker 4: I mean if Miami's three and a half point favorites,

373
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Speaker 4: I saw it three undraftkings.

374
00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:38,040
Speaker 5: If I could get it at three and a half.

375
00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:40,400
Speaker 4: Maybe I've got some interest in taking the Lions as

376
00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:43,040
Speaker 4: a home dog, you know, getting that sort of key

377
00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:43,800
Speaker 4: half point.

378
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Speaker 5: But yeah, I think the line's pretty spot on. Like Friedman, I.

379
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Speaker 4: Had this, I mean, I've got what the totals fifty,

380
00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:55,120
Speaker 4: I've got it at fifty, and I've got.

381
00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,920
Speaker 5: Miami's a three point favorite, so no more than half.

382
00:16:57,680 --> 00:16:58,640
Speaker 2: A point good.

383
00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:02,000
Speaker 1: The total surprising underperformed And the only reason I bring

384
00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:04,960
Speaker 1: that up is because you still have too kind of

385
00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:06,840
Speaker 1: shaking some of the rust off. We saw it in

386
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Speaker 1: the game. It was moments where he looked good, moments

387
00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:11,280
Speaker 1: where he made some you know, questionable decisions. But also

388
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,760
Speaker 1: aman Ro Saint Brown doing with that concussion issue, he

389
00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:17,040
Speaker 1: might not play. DeAndre Swift did not play coming off

390
00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:19,040
Speaker 1: the bike, which was not a good sign for him.

391
00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:21,600
Speaker 1: You had that fumble issue, which mull Williams. This is

392
00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:23,239
Speaker 1: a very big number, and I think all of us

393
00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:25,520
Speaker 1: initially see it and go, yeah, that makes sense. As

394
00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:27,040
Speaker 1: we look a little bit harder on it, is that

395
00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:28,280
Speaker 1: actually the way to approach this one.

396
00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:32,840
Speaker 5: Maybe the under I mean, oh, go ahead, Friedman, I'm just.

397
00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,160
Speaker 1: So happy you're both excited about the point I brought.

398
00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:35,520
Speaker 2: Up that's all.

399
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, and I think we'll see this come

400
00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:40,960
Speaker 4: down if we get word during the week that maybe

401
00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:43,600
Speaker 4: aman Ra isn't going to be able to go, you know,

402
00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:46,000
Speaker 4: with the player coming off a concussion on a Sunday,

403
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:48,679
Speaker 4: usually it's around fifty to fifty whether they suit up in.

404
00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:49,520
Speaker 5: The following week.

405
00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:52,200
Speaker 4: But you know, aman Ra was coming off a different injury.

406
00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:56,120
Speaker 4: Maybe they just give him the extra week. DeAndre Swift.

407
00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:58,879
Speaker 4: So like, if there's no Swift and no aman Ra

408
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:02,359
Speaker 4: Saint Brown like that, that's a lot of explosion gone

409
00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:05,160
Speaker 4: from the Detroit offense. You've got guys like Khalif Raymond

410
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,919
Speaker 4: out there, Jamal Williams, who is a very good all

411
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,879
Speaker 4: around running back, but there's just like no explosion to

412
00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:14,400
Speaker 4: his game. Really, He's not going to be getting those

413
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:18,320
Speaker 4: long touchdowns. So yeah, I mean, like there's just the

414
00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:21,040
Speaker 4: Lions will not have the ability to score from anywhere

415
00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:22,960
Speaker 4: on the field the way they do with like Saint

416
00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:26,720
Speaker 4: Brown and Swift out there, And I would definitely think

417
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:28,800
Speaker 4: that would affect the total free movie.

418
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:30,680
Speaker 1: Your thoughts on that, fifty is the time to jump

419
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:31,200
Speaker 1: on that now?

420
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I have this projected at fifty point six,

421
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:38,119
Speaker 3: but that doesn't take into account a Monroe Saint Brown, right,

422
00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,119
Speaker 3: DeAndre Swift. So if there's anything this is the highest

423
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,800
Speaker 3: total on the slate. And if there's anything we've learned

424
00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:46,199
Speaker 3: this season is that football can be really bad and

425
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:49,680
Speaker 3: boring sometimes. So I think if there is a side,

426
00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:50,720
Speaker 3: it's the under.

427
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,000
Speaker 1: I feel like we got spoiled last year, was so

428
00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,560
Speaker 1: magnificent to the playoffs, so magnificent, and I feel like

429
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 1: this is our penance for it.

430
00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:57,040
Speaker 2: Somehow.

431
00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 1: I guess it's that old Brooklyn Catholic Italian and me

432
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:00,440
Speaker 1: where so.

433
00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:01,280
Speaker 2: You had nice things.

434
00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:03,600
Speaker 1: Now you gotta go sit and you gotta, you know,

435
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:06,000
Speaker 1: do one hundred rosaries and think about all the things

436
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,480
Speaker 1: you did last year. All right, let's go to Arizona

437
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:12,160
Speaker 1: and Minnesota. Minnesota coming off the by they are five

438
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,840
Speaker 1: and one in the driver's seat for that division.

439
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:16,560
Speaker 2: Ear muffs fits ear muffs.

440
00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:20,280
Speaker 1: Arizona is four point underdogs heading to Minnesota in this

441
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:23,200
Speaker 1: when they pulled off a victory themselves. DeAndre Hopkins back

442
00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:26,080
Speaker 1: this past week and certainly saw his fair share of

443
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,359
Speaker 1: work right out of the gate. Forty eight and a

444
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:30,520
Speaker 1: half is the number for this one plus one sixty

445
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:32,120
Speaker 1: five on the money line. If you like the Arizona

446
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:35,600
Speaker 1: Cardinals to upset Friedman, let's start with you on this

447
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:38,120
Speaker 1: one forty eight and a half. To me, this one

448
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 1: feels like more of an over. Is it time to

449
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:41,680
Speaker 1: jump on this line?

450
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 2: Now?

451
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,719
Speaker 3: Forty eight and a half? I have this forty seven

452
00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:49,119
Speaker 3: point seven. You know I'm in that same neighborhood. I'm

453
00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:52,520
Speaker 3: probably not betting it what I am betting already bet

454
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 3: again on the look Ahead Matt at myself. I didn't

455
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:56,080
Speaker 3: get it at six, I got it at five and

456
00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 3: a half. I'm very much on the Cardinals in the spot,

457
00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:02,360
Speaker 3: as disgusting as it is. You bet on Cliff Kingsbury

458
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:04,720
Speaker 3: when he's on the road, when he's an underdog, and

459
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:07,120
Speaker 3: when he's a road underdog, this is the perfect situation

460
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:08,920
Speaker 3: in his career. I don't know what it is because

461
00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:10,440
Speaker 3: I don't think it has anything to do with him.

462
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:12,639
Speaker 3: I think it has to do with like the game

463
00:20:12,680 --> 00:20:16,920
Speaker 3: State and Kyler Murray taking over. But Cliff Kingsbury fifteen

464
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:20,400
Speaker 3: three and two against the spread as a road underdog.

465
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 2: Wow, that's that's significant. That Yeah, it's studying for a

466
00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 2: guy who just seemingly can't get out of his way.

467
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 3: But like in this situation, like as a home favorite,

468
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:33,200
Speaker 3: he's absolutely horrible as a road dog, He's like one

469
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,879
Speaker 3: of the best coaches in the league, so I'm very

470
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,200
Speaker 3: much on him in this spot. I have this projected

471
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:40,840
Speaker 3: at three point five, so I do think that there's

472
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:43,600
Speaker 3: some value here, a little bit of value, but really

473
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:45,800
Speaker 3: it's just like I want to be on the Cardinals

474
00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 3: in this spot, all right, after hearing that number of

475
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,680
Speaker 3: Pat fitz Morris, what are your thoughts on this contest.

476
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 5: Oh Man?

477
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 4: I like Friedman has driven home this point about Kingsbury before,

478
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 4: and he's so right about it, But I like, I

479
00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,359
Speaker 4: just don't want to bet the Cardinals at all after

480
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 4: basically the way they needed to what needed to happen

481
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 4: for them to win that game against the Saints forty

482
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 4: two to thirty four, not exactly decisively, but like Andy

483
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:15,200
Speaker 4: Dalton throws four interceptions, two of them get returned for touchdowns,

484
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 4: Like the Cardinals did everything they could to give that

485
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,960
Speaker 4: game away, and yet on the other side, I mean

486
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,439
Speaker 4: the Vikings, Yeah, Joe, it obviously makes me upset that

487
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,879
Speaker 4: the Vikings are well ahead of the Packers and the

488
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 4: standings and probably have the NFC North in hand this year.

489
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 5: But the Vikings are absolutely living a lie.

490
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 4: I mean, they're five and one, they're two and four

491
00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 4: against the spread, like they're I think they're seventeenth in

492
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 4: total DVOA, Like this is a completely average team masquerading

493
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 4: as a good team and so like, and maybe that's

494
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,760
Speaker 4: why the total the number is as modest as it is.

495
00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 4: I think most people would look at this and say, like, wow,

496
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,000
Speaker 4: the Vikings are only favored by four against you know,

497
00:21:57,040 --> 00:22:01,399
Speaker 4: this very mediocre Cardinal team, Like at.

498
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,360
Speaker 5: First, at first blush.

499
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,199
Speaker 4: You know what I think of the Vikings that I'm

500
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 4: still inclined to bet them even at the hunderstand even

501
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 4: thinking they're pretty mediocre. But you know, Friedman has pointed

502
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 4: out the cliff thing time and again. I'm probably just

503
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 4: gonna walk away from this game, like I would feel

504
00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 4: bad about betting on either team here.

505
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 2: That's what a reasonable person should do. I'm clearly not reasonable.

506
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,400
Speaker 2: Oh no, that ship is sill many many weeks ago.

507
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 1: Let's take a quick break in the action to tell

508
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,159
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524
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529
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530
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538
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539
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540
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,000
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541
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 1: in Nevada and New York. And now back to the action.

542
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 1: Let's go to Las Vegas Raiders. You know we talked

543
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,120
Speaker 1: about this, Pat, you and I I want to say

544
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 1: on one of the FP shows earlier this week, were

545
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 1: it feels like to us that the Raiders might be

546
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,399
Speaker 1: this team that comes out of the buy and starts

547
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 1: to put some things together. It might not always be pretty,

548
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 1: but it's going to improve. They got a victory. They're

549
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 1: going to take on the New Orleans Saints, who talk

550
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:10,640
Speaker 1: about not being able to get out of their own way.

551
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:12,919
Speaker 1: We assume Andy Dalton's going to be the quarterback. That

552
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:15,679
Speaker 1: seems to be the way things are trending here. Forty

553
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:17,679
Speaker 1: seven and a half is the over under. If you

554
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 1: like New Orleans to win it home, it's plus one

555
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 1: ten on the money line. They are two point underdogs

556
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 1: though at home against the Las Vegas Arradas. Pat fitz Morris,

557
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 1: let's talk about Vegas and New Orleans. Do you see

558
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 1: opportunity here? Is that opportunity just to bet the Saints

559
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 1: on the money line, or do you think that this

560
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 1: raider trend out of the buy is going to continue

561
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 1: into a second week in a row.

562
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 4: I do think there's an opportunity to bet the Saints

563
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,360
Speaker 4: on the money line. I've got this one projected basically

564
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 4: even I think it should be a pick em, and

565
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 4: the Saints have been undervalued in my opinion, all year

566
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 4: and they should have bumped off the card like I

567
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 4: bet the Saints last Thursday night, continuing a Thursday night

568
00:24:57,800 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 4: losing streak.

569
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 5: I'm on and like, I.

570
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 4: Still feel like it was the right bat Marque Marquez

571
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 4: Callaway doesn't let a ball slip through his fingers and

572
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 4: turn into a pick six.

573
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,399
Speaker 5: Like that very easily could have gone the other way.

574
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 5: And uh. On the other hand, though, I have been guilty.

575
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 4: Of undervaluing this Raiders team, Like you, you have to

576
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 4: say the Raiders have one of the better offenses in

577
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 4: the league because they can do it through the air,

578
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 4: they can do it on the ground, Like this is

579
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:29,119
Speaker 4: a multifaceted Raider team. And I bet the under on

580
00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 4: that Raiders Texans team because I thought it was sort

581
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 4: of the uh, you know, the Raiders souped up pace

582
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 4: of like scoring a lot of points, getting a lot

583
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,919
Speaker 4: of yards, and having this sort of sieve like defense

584
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,160
Speaker 4: versus the Texans who just turn everything into a rock fight.

585
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 4: And I thought the Texans were gonna like turn it

586
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,639
Speaker 4: into a rock fight successfully, and I was completely wrong.

587
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:50,360
Speaker 5: It was just a yeah.

588
00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 1: I mean, if you watch that game, it's just like

589
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 1: they have no inclination to tackling.

590
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 2: They are that's gonna crush you, right.

591
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 4: I think the Texans are leading the league in miss tackles.

592
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 5: If I didn't even yeah.

593
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:01,360
Speaker 2: I'd be sure.

594
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 1: I mean just by watching. If they weren't the leading

595
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 1: the league in break miss tackles, then it would be absurd.

596
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 1: Like it was the way the Falcons used to be

597
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 1: in the last couple of years, where you'd watch the games,

598
00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 1: you'd watch just the lack of aggression towards the other team,

599
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 1: where he's like, Oh, you're gonna run. You know what,

600
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 1: why don't you just go?

601
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 2: Just go?

602
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 1: I don't care, you just run. You got to go

603
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 1: to that touchdown, you go ahead and score it, Freeman.

604
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 1: Winning's contagious, but losing is also contagious. The Saints have

605
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 1: lost too in a row. Here you start to hear

606
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 1: the voices. I feel like this is kind of a

607
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 1: big game here for the Saints, and I mean we

608
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:35,120
Speaker 1: are in week eight. This is kind of that fork

609
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: in the road where if the Saints take another l here,

610
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 1: their season could sort of unravel. I mean, it's right

611
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 1: on that precipice. Michael Thomas has not played in weeks.

612
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:45,199
Speaker 1: We don't know if he's ever gonna play again. I

613
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 1: don't know what's going on there. So what do you

614
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 1: see in this one. What's the projection model have you

615
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,160
Speaker 1: at this week on this contest?

616
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm very similar to Fits. And then I think

617
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 3: there's opportunity on the Saints. I bet them early, I

618
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,399
Speaker 3: bet them at two and a half. I think they

619
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 3: should be slightly favored in this game, like slight favorites,

620
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 3: but close to a pick them, you know, at home.

621
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 2: I don't think that. I don't know. I don't think

622
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 2: that Raiders defense is all that great.

623
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 3: Their offense is good, and I would say, like if

624
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 3: they're they're not a top ten team, but they are

625
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 3: kind of on the precipice. They're like, you know, somewhere

626
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 3: in eleven through fourteen, So I think they're an above

627
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 3: average team. Their offense is good. But the Saints at home,

628
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 3: and I'll just like Derek Carr historically has been horrible

629
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 3: as an underdog in his career. I think he's fifteen

630
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 3: twenty five and two against this bread as an underdog, sorry,

631
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 3: as a favorite, as a favorite. So like Derek Carr

632
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 3: is a favorite, I just I want to be betting

633
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 3: against him in that spot. And even outside of that,

634
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 3: I would still think that there's value in this position

635
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 3: on the Saints, but I'm not taking like the motivational

636
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 3: factors into account.

637
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 1: Sure, I wonder if he sees himself as the underdog

638
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,919
Speaker 1: in this game, though Yo Vegas doesn't see them. But

639
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: I feel like the Raiders are kind of wearing that

640
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 1: underdog moniker because of their record or because of the

641
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:04,119
Speaker 1: hype that didn't happen a lot of the media noise.

642
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: So although they are favorites on paper, I feel like

643
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 1: they're underdogs in their heart. We'll see what happens there.

644
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 1: In the New England Patriots three and three against the

645
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 1: juggernaut New York Jets five and two in New York.

646
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 1: That's right now, they don't have Breeze Hall anymore, so

647
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 1: Michael Carter is going to go back to getting that

648
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: workload tight. Johnson, I'm sure is going to work as well.

649
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 1: The New England Patriots, regardless, are one and a half

650
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:26,439
Speaker 1: point favorites in this one.

651
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:26,680
Speaker 2: Now.

652
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 1: Typically in these contests, Zach Wilson completes a lot of

653
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 1: balls to the New England Patriots. We've seen that time

654
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,159
Speaker 1: and time again when these two teams match up. Friedman,

655
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 1: when you're looking at this one, the numbers forty one,

656
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 1: if you like the Jets for the upset. You're getting

657
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 1: even money on it. Do you think New England goes

658
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 1: in there and teaches a lesson to the Jets, or

659
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 1: do you think this new look Jets and that defense

660
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,040
Speaker 1: can bring the Patriots kind of down to their level

661
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 1: a little bit and somehow eke out of victory.

662
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 3: So I do have the Patriots favored in the spot

663
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 3: by two and a half. The early line last night

664
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 3: was one, and it was that's similar to what we

665
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 3: saw on the look ahead market. And so because it

666
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 3: wasn't anywhere near a key number and I don't have

667
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 3: my projection past a key number, I decided not to

668
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 3: bet it, just to kind of see which direction the

669
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 3: market would go. So it has moved towards the Patriots,

670
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 3: which is, you know where I'm showing value here, So

671
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 3: I might bet it, but given that we're not near

672
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,840
Speaker 3: a key number, I'm probably just staying away. But if

673
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 3: I'm on any side here, it is the Patriots.

674
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 1: Pat Are you on the Patriots side too? Or do

675
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 1: you think this Jets team is kind of just rolling

676
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: downhill right now?

677
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 5: Yeah?

678
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 4: Man, Like I don't want to get caught doubting the

679
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 4: Jets again. But how do they move the ball without

680
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,640
Speaker 4: Breis Hall? I mean Zach Wilson is now, Yeah, Zach

681
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 4: Wilson has looked so bad, and like Breece, Hall gave

682
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 4: them an explosive dimension to their running game. Like he

683
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 4: was not just good, he was explosive, like a sixty

684
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 4: point or a sixty two yard touchdown run early in

685
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 4: that game against Denver in a game where just a

686
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 4: little bit of offense. So it's going to do the trick.

687
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,400
Speaker 4: And so where does that offense come from?

688
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 2: Now?

689
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 4: Michael Carter is good, but he's not going to generate

690
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,760
Speaker 4: those types of plays as often as Briest Hall. So

691
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 4: I'm concerned about how the Jets offense hangs here. Obviously

692
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 4: I'm not too excited about the Patriots offense either. It's

693
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 4: slow and plotting and just basically trying to sledge hammer

694
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 4: you to death. So like I'm staying away from the

695
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 4: side here, interested in the under yet again, like a

696
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 4: lot of these low total unders, you know, set at

697
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 4: forty or forty one, and I'm looking at the two

698
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 4: teams thinking, how are they possibly going to get to forty?

699
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,280
Speaker 5: And this is another one of those games.

700
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 1: The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles six and zero at home ten

701
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites against their state counterpart, the

702
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers, So can you pick it? You know, continues

703
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:53,280
Speaker 1: to show some moments, and I think that's all going

704
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 1: to go in the right direction. George Picktt certainly another

705
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 1: wonderful catch last night for that TD the numbers forty four.

706
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 1: I mean, look, this seems to be a very clear

707
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 1: cut situation where the Eagles coming off of bye, a

708
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 1: very complete team, in a situation where they should win

709
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 1: this game handily. But Pat, we've seen this time and

710
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 1: time again sometimes where that is not the case. Do

711
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 1: you feel that this ten and a half is a

712
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 1: safe number?

713
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 5: I don't feel like it's a safe number.

714
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 4: Joe Friedman gave me credit earlier for being right about

715
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 4: the Steelers on Sunday night against the Dolphins, but I mean,

716
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 4: let's face it, that felt like a very weasy cover

717
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 4: one of those bets you were probably wrong about and

718
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 4: still win anyway.

719
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 5: So I cannot take any credit for that.

720
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 4: I'm gonna finally thank Friedman and let him keep that

721
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 4: credit in his pocket for now. Boy, I've got this

722
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 4: at ten in my early projections, and the total is

723
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 4: kind of right onto. I'm probably not touching this one,

724
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 4: but I feel like I've been giving the Steelers too

725
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 4: much credit. Like the Eagles are definitely close to ten

726
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 4: points better here and coming off a bye, you know,

727
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:04,480
Speaker 4: presumably healthier than they were going in.

728
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 5: I'm definitely not betting against the Eagles here.

729
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 4: But you know, I kind of also don't want to

730
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 4: bet on them as the big number.

731
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,200
Speaker 1: Well, here's the question too. Some teams come out healthier

732
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 1: from the buye, but sometimes they come out flat if

733
00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 1: they do. Does this forty four kind of end up

734
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 1: playing to an under?

735
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 5: Surprisingly it could?

736
00:32:22,120 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, but man, the Philly's got one of the best

737
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:29,239
Speaker 4: offenses in football and Pittsburgh's defense, like we've seen, there

738
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 4: are holes Like Philly could definitely throw up thirty five

739
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 4: or forty points in this game, So, you know, with

740
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 4: their ability to almost hit this number by themselves, I

741
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 4: don't think I can bet the under here.

742
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 1: Friedman, what are your thoughts on this one?

743
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have this slightly to the over forty four

744
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 3: point three, so it's not like I'm really taking a

745
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 3: position there either way, But I obviously I am disgusting

746
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 3: enough to take a position when there's basically the same

747
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 3: margin of value on the spread. I am on the

748
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 3: Eagles in the spot, and I did. I did bet

749
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 3: it in the look ahead market at ten. I just

750
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 3: saw that number and I was like, you know what,

751
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 3: there's a good chance that this goes above ten later

752
00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:10,640
Speaker 3: and I'm just going to be kicking myself that i

753
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 3: didn't grab it at ten. So I have this projected

754
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 3: at ten point seven to five. So given it ten

755
00:33:15,920 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 3: point five, it's not as if there's you know, I

756
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 3: think value there now. But if I had to bet

757
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 3: one of these sides, you know, this goes against my

758
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 3: don't bet big favorites. But I think the Eagles are

759
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 3: one of the few teams in the league that actually

760
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 3: do deserve to be big favorites against most opponents, or

761
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 3: at least bottom feeding opponents. And I think that's what

762
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 3: the Steelers are right now. You know, the Eagles, and

763
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 3: then I think the Chiefs, the Bills. Those are the

764
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 3: three teams that deserve to be big favorites against bad

765
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 3: teams when they are at home. And I think it

766
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 3: checks the box here. So ten point seventy five. You're

767
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 3: probably not betting it now, But if at some point

768
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 3: this does dip down to ten I would grab it

769
00:33:57,920 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 3: at that number.

770
00:33:59,640 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 2: Tennis.

771
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 1: The Titans are at top of their division right now.

772
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 1: They are three and a half point favorites as they

773
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,640
Speaker 1: travel to the Houston Texans. So I don't know how

774
00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 1: plucky you guys think the Texans are anymore. Forty one

775
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,240
Speaker 1: is the number if you like Houston for the upset

776
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 1: plus one sixty five Friedman. You know, sometimes there's these

777
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 1: letdown games right where you have those big indivision opponents

778
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 1: right where you're battling at the top, and then you

779
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 1: go take on the Texans and you're like, yeah, it's

780
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,319
Speaker 1: the Texans. Is there any letdown here? Potentially in this

781
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 1: one for Tennessee?

782
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 3: Maybe I have this protected at two point twenty five,

783
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:29,360
Speaker 3: So I bet it.

784
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 2: You know, I'm that sick.

785
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:32,879
Speaker 3: I've bet Houston plus three and a half.

786
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 1: Uh.

787
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:37,319
Speaker 3: And you know Tennessee, Yeah, they got a tough win,

788
00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 3: but you know it was a divisional opponent, it was

789
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 3: a rematch. You know, they'd already played each other, they

790
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 3: were at home, so you know, weird stuff happens in

791
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 3: division and you know, it's not that weird for the

792
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 3: idea of Houston beating a divisional opponent who's not all

793
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 3: that good when Houston's hosting, that's not that crazy.

794
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 1: Okay, how do you see this one, Pat? When you're

795
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 1: looking ahead here and you see Tennessee coming out just

796
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 1: rolling over and taking care of business, or maybe just

797
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 1: a little bit of a letdown on the surface.

798
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,480
Speaker 4: I kind of see it the same way Friedman does,

799
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 4: where maybe there's a little bit of value on the Texans.

800
00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 4: But I was driving around in the car on Saturday

801
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 4: night listening to a Tennessee beat writer talk about the

802
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 4: Titans and how the offensive line has slipped, and you know,

803
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:23,839
Speaker 4: that's why Derek Henry has not been as effective as

804
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 4: he has in the past. And there are all these

805
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 4: holes on defense, and you know which is true. I

806
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:31,919
Speaker 4: think the Titans are like seventeenth in DVA against the run,

807
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 4: or nineteenth and d against the past or vice versa.

808
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 5: Like they're slightly below average on defense.

809
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 4: And every time I look at the Titans and whatever

810
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 4: their line is, I want to bet against them, like

811
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 4: I just don't believe in the team at all. And

812
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,839
Speaker 4: then every time they surprised. They're four and two, they're

813
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:52,280
Speaker 4: leading the division, They're four and two against the spread.

814
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,959
Speaker 4: They were the number one seeds in the AFC last

815
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,399
Speaker 4: year at twelve and five, which seems absolutely ludicrous. Mike

816
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,760
Speaker 4: Rabel just gets things done, like he takes care of business.

817
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 4: And so when I see that there's like a little

818
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 4: bit of value in Houston, like every instinct is to

819
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:10,960
Speaker 4: pounce on it. But I think I'm just going to

820
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 4: show respect to Mike Rabel and walk away from this one.

821
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 3: That's fair. Actually, got say like that's probably the smart thing.

822
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 3: There are certain teams where it's just like, you know what,

823
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:20,399
Speaker 3: there's something going on with this team that I can't

824
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,919
Speaker 3: really quantify, And I feel like it's a similar case

825
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:25,400
Speaker 3: like with the Giants, where it's just like there's somehow

826
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:26,400
Speaker 3: winning games.

827
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 2: It's you know, yeah, it's yeah.

828
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 3: Something with the culture, and you can try to take

829
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 3: that into account in some sort of power rating by

830
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 3: by moving it in some direction that's not really accounted

831
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,960
Speaker 3: for based on like your EPA numbers or whatever it

832
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:39,360
Speaker 3: is that you're taking into account.

833
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 2: But uh, yeah, like.

834
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,719
Speaker 3: Pat, Pat is right, Like the smart thing would be

835
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:45,840
Speaker 3: to say, like do I really want to be betting

836
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 3: on Houston in the spot and then just to walk away.

837
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,839
Speaker 3: But I'm I'm not smart, So I am I am

838
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 3: betting on Houston in this spot, but like I probably shouldn't, Friedman.

839
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 1: I'm going to task you in the off season with

840
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:57,720
Speaker 1: finding a metric that measures heart.

841
00:36:57,840 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 2: I want you to find that to figure that out,

842
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 2: all right, season? Yeah? The EKG?

843
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:08,760
Speaker 1: What's the ekg? All right, let's get to Washington and Indianapolis.

844
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 1: The Washington commander is a studding victory at home. They

845
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 1: are still four point underdogs regardless of traveling to Indianapolis.

846
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 1: Who was three to three and one? Forty one and

847
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 1: a half is the number if you like Washington to

848
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 1: just keep the good times rolling with Brett Rippon, it's

849
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 1: plus one seventy five. Friedman, let's start with you again

850
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 1: on this one here the commanders and the colts.

851
00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 2: Is it time to just go.

852
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 1: Right back to assuming that the commanders of the commanders

853
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 1: or do you see potentially a little bit of value

854
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:35,800
Speaker 1: here on their side?

855
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 3: So the early line on this last night was four

856
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 3: and a half. It's moved to four. The look ahead

857
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 3: was six, and that's where I met it on Washington. Well,

858
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 3: then you know for four and a half, for I

859
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 3: see that basically where it should be. I have this

860
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 3: projected at four and a half so if I hadn't

861
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:54,760
Speaker 3: gotten it on the look ahead, I would be staying

862
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 3: away at this point.

863
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 1: Okay, Pat, same thing as the ship already sailed on

864
00:37:58,560 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 1: this one for you.

865
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:01,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have this right at four and a half

866
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 4: and the total is right on.

867
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 5: And both of these teams.

868
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,320
Speaker 4: I mean, if we're getting Freedman to develop the grid ometer,

869
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:10,640
Speaker 4: maybe I can work on a trust dominer for betting purposes.

870
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 4: Both of these Both of these teams would register extremely

871
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,360
Speaker 4: low on the trust dominter like. I'm not sure they

872
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 4: would even register. So I'm not betting this one.

873
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 1: All right, Let's walk away. Let's go up to Los

874
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:25,880
Speaker 1: Angeles instead. The Los Angeles Rams three and three against

875
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,359
Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty nine ers. Now, the Rams at

876
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 1: home are still as they should be, underdogs plus one.

877
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 2: And a half.

878
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:34,960
Speaker 1: Because why the San Francisco forty nine ers are their

879
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:37,359
Speaker 1: daddy in the regular season every single time? How many

880
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 1: times you have to get beat over the head with it,

881
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 1: I don't know. Forty two is the number they have,

882
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffery. Now, with a full week of practice, this

883
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 1: one seems kind to me. With the one and a

884
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 1: half fits, I don't know how you see this. If

885
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 1: you like the Rams don't win on the money lines

886
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 1: plus one ten. But I don't until it's proven otherwise,

887
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 1: I'm just going to continue to stay the course. Fit's

888
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 1: our use day in the course with the forty nine ers,

889
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 1: and they're new toy. Christian McCaffrey, Now totally.

890
00:38:58,920 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 5: With you, Joe.

891
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 4: I've got the projected at forty nine or should be

892
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 4: a two and a half point favorite, and that's not

893
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:07,799
Speaker 4: even factoring in the who's your daddy dimension of this.

894
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 5: So yeah, I am.

895
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 4: Taking the forty nine ers, and I think it's like

896
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 4: a gift that this number is as low as it is.

897
00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 1: Friedman, your thoughts on this number.

898
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 3: So this is one point where Fits and I have

899
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 3: a really a pretty wide divergence in what we're seeing here.

900
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 3: I have this, I hate to say it, I have

901
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 3: the Rams as one point seventy five favorites at home.

902
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:30,319
Speaker 2: Wow.

903
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 3: But I will say, I will say, here's the thing,

904
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 3: here's the thing, and the look ahead market this was

905
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 3: I was right on the number, and uh, you know,

906
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 3: this was like one one and a half in the

907
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 3: look ahead market favoring the Rams. And so I saw

908
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:49,360
Speaker 3: that number and I was like, you know what, regardless

909
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 3: of whatever my projections say. I want to be on

910
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 3: Kyle Shanahan against the Rams as a road underdog, like

911
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 3: he's like Cliff Kingsbury in that way. As a road underdog,

912
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:02,880
Speaker 3: Shanahan crushes. So I did bet this plus one and

913
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 3: a half. I'm look ahead market on the forty nine ers,

914
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 3: and now it's flipped. So the thing is, I do

915
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 3: see value in the Rams, but like I don't.

916
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 2: If I had to bet it now, I would bet.

917
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 3: The Rams, but I would just hate myself and I

918
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 3: would say, like, you know what, I haven't adjusted my

919
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 3: number low enough to account for the fact that like

920
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:24,320
Speaker 3: their offense has no continuity and their defenses in shambles.

921
00:40:24,360 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 3: Like their defense, I don't know what it is, like

922
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:28,840
Speaker 3: they're not getting any stops. Like they have some big players,

923
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:32,919
Speaker 3: but those those players aren't supplemented with anyone else who's

924
00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:33,880
Speaker 3: able to make a play.

925
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 1: They are a stars and scrubs roster for anybody who

926
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,800
Speaker 1: plays fantasy. That's what the Rams are. And the problem

927
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 1: with those is if your stars don't perform at that

928
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 1: high level every single time, the scrubs aren't making up

929
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 1: the difference. And I'm again I'm not calling those guys scrubs.

930
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 1: I'm saying, this is just the theoretical complemation of this team,

931
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 1: Like this is how they've put it together. Seven and one.

932
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 2: By the way, the forty nine ers are in their

933
00:40:57,480 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 2: last eight games.

934
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:00,839
Speaker 1: That one loss is the one in the championship game

935
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 1: where they really had it in their grasp and could

936
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:04,760
Speaker 1: have but Jimmy Garoppolo decided to say.

937
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:06,759
Speaker 2: And that's the always think it's always the Garoppolo factor.

938
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 1: I think that gives people pause of these games where

939
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 1: you're waiting for Garoppolo to make the stupid mistakes like

940
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 1: he did yesterday, and you go, oh, Jimmy Garoppolo could

941
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 1: kill this game on his own. But somehow the forty

942
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:18,359
Speaker 1: nine ers always find a way against the Rams.

943
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 4: And and Stafford can absolutely outstoopid Jimmy Garoppolo in this game.

944
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 4: Is I mean, like talk about a game with a

945
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 4: large pick six factor that could turn this spread either

946
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 4: way in a heartbeat with these two quarterbacks.

947
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, so that's one thing.

948
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:36,839
Speaker 3: Go ahead, Sorry, I was just sorry to Interruptor here's

949
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 3: one thing I will say on the forty nine ers,

950
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:42,359
Speaker 3: like they are, they got miraculously healthy this past week,

951
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 3: Like on the injury report, a lot of their guys

952
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:47,839
Speaker 3: have come back, Trent Williams his comeback. You know, like,

953
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 3: there's there's a very good chance that I haven't adjusted

954
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 3: them up enough, given how healthy they are now. That said,

955
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 3: like they didn't really do anything against the Chiefs to

956
00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 3: make me feel like I needed to adjust them drastically

957
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 3: in the power ratings.

958
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 2: Oh so, I haven't take this Friedman for whatever it's worth.

959
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 1: I don't think anybody in the NFC, maybe the Eagles

960
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 1: at this point, maybe makes me feel like they can

961
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 1: compete with any of those juggernaut teams in the AFC.

962
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,479
Speaker 1: I'm talking the Chiefs, I'm talking the Bills. I mean, heck,

963
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:18,319
Speaker 1: you know, the Bengals keep kind of turning things around

964
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 1: the way they are right now, the way they are

965
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 1: looking the last two weeks. I'm just saying, I feel

966
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 1: like the NFC is just kind of like redheaded step

967
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:24,719
Speaker 1: child a little bit.

968
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:26,360
Speaker 2: That's how those are.

969
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 3: That's fair. But you're at home. You know you're going

970
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:32,240
Speaker 3: against the team that beat you in the Super Bowl

971
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 3: a couple of years ago. You've got your left tackle back,

972
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 3: you just traded for Christian McCaffrey. Go keep it close,

973
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 3: you know, like that's all I'm saying, and that that

974
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 3: you need to give it.

975
00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:43,880
Speaker 1: Is not happy with the forty nine ers he has

976
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 1: going straight to the media after this game.

977
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:47,680
Speaker 2: I could just make it a one score game, you know.

978
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, I want to know.

979
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 4: I want to know how Friedman's model has the Rams

980
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:54,680
Speaker 4: favored by that much? Like does your model have Eric

981
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 4: Dickerson a running back for the Rams right now?

982
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 1: Five today? You could catch them in the Poconos, by

983
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 1: the way, this summer. If you're looking all right, the

984
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:09,279
Speaker 1: New York Football Giants six and one taking on the

985
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:11,920
Speaker 1: four and three Seattle Seahawks. Is there a better story

986
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 1: in the NFL than Geno Smith. I don't know if

987
00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:15,839
Speaker 1: there is. They're not gonna have DK Metcalf. I don't

988
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:17,399
Speaker 1: know how long, but they're not gonna have for this game.

989
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:20,320
Speaker 1: I can tell you that regardless. The Seahawks two and

990
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 1: a half point favorites in this one. Forty six and

991
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:23,800
Speaker 1: a half is the number if you like the Giants

992
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 1: to just keep on winning, because that's what the Giants do.

993
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 1: It's plus one fourteen. So Cinderella's meet here in this

994
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 1: matchup fits. I'm just gonna ask you this straight up

995
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 1: is the run team favorite in this game?

996
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:36,840
Speaker 4: No, I mean, I do think it should be Seattle.

997
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 4: Like both of these teams have overachieved big time. Seattle

998
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:44,839
Speaker 4: is I mean, their season, to me in a lot

999
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:47,799
Speaker 4: of ways, is more remarkable than the Giant season. Like

1000
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 4: I thought Seattle was just gonna be absolute trash this year,

1001
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:57,360
Speaker 4: and they've overachieved on defense and offensively, they've actually been potent,

1002
00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 4: So I think they deserve to be favored. But I've

1003
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 4: got them as a smaller favored favorite than what the

1004
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 4: line shows. I've got Seattle's a two point favorite in

1005
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 4: this one, So maybe a little bit of value on

1006
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:13,799
Speaker 4: the Giants, and who can argue with the results they've

1007
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 4: gotten so far. I mean, betting the Giants has been

1008
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 4: good business, so I probably will bet the Giants on

1009
00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 4: this one. But you know, Seattle is, Seattle's is a

1010
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:27,880
Speaker 4: very live team, Like I don't know. I mean, I'm

1011
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 4: much less inclined to bet against the Seahawks than I

1012
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:33,400
Speaker 4: was the first few weeks of the season, where I

1013
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 4: kind of paid for it.

1014
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 1: All right, Uh, Friedman, your thoughts on the Giants Seattle?

1015
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 1: You like the Giants? Maybe on the plus one fourteen.

1016
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 1: That's a pretty good number you're getting there.

1017
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:42,560
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1018
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 3: I like the Giants in the spot, and I'm I'm

1019
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:48,920
Speaker 3: angry that it's moved to three at DraftKings three minus

1020
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 3: one twenty where you know, maybe if I'd been just

1021
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 3: a little more patient, I would have, you know, gotten that.

1022
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 2: But whatever, I'm on the Giants at two and a half.

1023
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:59,399
Speaker 3: I had like fits, I have this projected at two,

1024
00:44:59,600 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 3: so I I do think there's a little bit of

1025
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:04,280
Speaker 3: value there. And you know, underdogs have been the side

1026
00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 3: this season. They are sixty forty five and one against

1027
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:11,919
Speaker 3: the spread this year, and Daniel Jones as a road

1028
00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:16,400
Speaker 3: underdog is thirteen and four against the spread for his career.

1029
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:19,719
Speaker 1: Like that, dude literally has like the Giants out right.

1030
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:21,560
Speaker 1: I think the wrong team's favorite of this. What I

1031
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 1: just do it. Sometimes things just don't make sense. We

1032
00:45:24,440 --> 00:45:26,800
Speaker 1: talked about it. You just got to roll with the punches,

1033
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:31,800
Speaker 1: all right. And perhaps what was the dumbest postgame interview

1034
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:35,239
Speaker 1: comment that I saw all day yesterday? Aaron Rodgers said,

1035
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:38,239
Speaker 1: and I quote, I think this is exactly what we need.

1036
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 1: We need to go to Buffalo and travel there. I

1037
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 1: think this is what that team needs to go out there,

1038
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 1: and that's what we need. We need to play the

1039
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:49,399
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills off a bye the dumbest thing I've ever heard.

1040
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:51,399
Speaker 1: Have you watched your team play Aaron Rodgers? I don't

1041
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:53,400
Speaker 1: know what's going on here. You are ten and a

1042
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 1: half point underdogs in this game, So careful what you

1043
00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:57,320
Speaker 1: wish for, mister Rogers.

1044
00:45:58,360 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 2: This is a forty.

1045
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:01,200
Speaker 1: Seven and a half if you like the Green Bay

1046
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 1: Packers to win outright, and you're drinking the same tea

1047
00:46:03,200 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 1: as Aaron Rodgers, it's plus four hundred on the money line.

1048
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:09,120
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give Pat some time to marinate on this one. Freedman,

1049
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:12,440
Speaker 1: let's start with you. Is mister Rogers anywhere close in

1050
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 1: this neighborhood to the ten and a half?

1051
00:46:14,840 --> 00:46:16,360
Speaker 2: I have this at eleven and a half.

1052
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 3: I did have it at ten and a half before

1053
00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:23,440
Speaker 3: Week seven, But you know the Packers continue, I'm gonna

1054
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:26,839
Speaker 3: bump them down aggressively. Now you know I was steadfast

1055
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 3: and holding the line on the power ratings early on

1056
00:46:29,760 --> 00:46:31,960
Speaker 3: in the season when they weren't looking great, and now

1057
00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:35,279
Speaker 3: I'm making up for it aggressively each week whenever they suck.

1058
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 3: And this line was eight and a half in the

1059
00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:40,200
Speaker 3: look ahead market, and I pounced on it because I

1060
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 3: was just like, look, the Packers could suck again this

1061
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:45,360
Speaker 3: week and this could be above ten. So very happy

1062
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:47,680
Speaker 3: to have the Bills at eight and a half. I

1063
00:46:47,719 --> 00:46:49,840
Speaker 3: still think they offer value at ten and a half.

1064
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:52,799
Speaker 1: All Right, fits, I gave you some extra time to

1065
00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:55,120
Speaker 1: collect your thoughts and your feelings. Please share with the.

1066
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:57,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I'm certainly not betting on Green Bay at

1067
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:01,279
Speaker 4: this point in the season, and I'm inclined to just

1068
00:47:03,160 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 4: although I do have this at ten and a half,

1069
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:10,359
Speaker 4: like I believe as Friedman does, like the Bills are

1070
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 4: probably the better value here. But maybe when Rogers was

1071
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 4: talking about that, I can think of a specific game

1072
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:18,839
Speaker 4: he probably had in mind, and that was when the

1073
00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 4: Packers went to Arizona last year. I think the Cardinals

1074
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 4: were like eight and one or nine and one at

1075
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 4: the time for a Thursday night game, and the Packers

1076
00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:30,520
Speaker 4: did not have DeVante Adams, who.

1077
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 5: I believe was out with turf toe.

1078
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:35,439
Speaker 4: They didn't have David Bacciari at left tackle, they didn't

1079
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 4: have jay r Alexander for that game. They were severely shorthanded,

1080
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 4: and they went out and beat the Cardinals, who at

1081
00:47:42,480 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 4: the time people were talking about as being Super Bowl favorites.

1082
00:47:45,520 --> 00:47:46,839
Speaker 5: Now we know the.

1083
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 4: Cardinals turn out to be not that good and basically

1084
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:53,600
Speaker 4: fell apart after that loss.

1085
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:56,239
Speaker 5: That is a blueprint.

1086
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,879
Speaker 4: I guess if you're looking for a packer upset here,

1087
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:01,839
Speaker 4: I don't see a packer upset happening. They're just too

1088
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 4: limited offensively, and the bills just too explosive offensively.

1089
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 2: By the way.

1090
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:09,880
Speaker 1: Logic is sound, by the way, but the application of

1091
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 1: said logic against the said Buffalo bills coming off said.

1092
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 2: By is said insane.

1093
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:17,840
Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, by the way, I gotta say, for the

1094
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:21,840
Speaker 3: past few weeks, I've absolutely loved listening to Tom Brady

1095
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 3: on the Let's Go Podcast on Mondays and Aaron Rodgers

1096
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:30,080
Speaker 3: on The Pat McAfee Show on Tuesdays. It's just like

1097
00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:33,280
Speaker 3: each week, it's just like you can hear them getting

1098
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:36,920
Speaker 3: more and more depressed. It's a hilarious listen.

1099
00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:39,879
Speaker 1: The only difference is Tom Brady still sits on a

1100
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:42,000
Speaker 1: pile of rings and Aaron Rodgers has won at the

1101
00:48:42,040 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 1: end of the day. So like, Tom Brady's gonna be depressed.

1102
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:46,520
Speaker 1: But how depressed can you be if you're Tom Brady?

1103
00:48:46,520 --> 00:48:48,279
Speaker 1: I mean, on some things in his life aren't going well,

1104
00:48:48,320 --> 00:48:50,799
Speaker 1: but still, like, let's think about that, you won all

1105
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 1: these championships for Rogers. I think the frustration is, you know,

1106
00:48:54,360 --> 00:48:56,319
Speaker 1: you've kind of created this universe, and this is what

1107
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:58,719
Speaker 1: happens sometimes too. In those teams where you pay the

1108
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 1: quarterback a ton of money, it's very hard to surround

1109
00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:03,319
Speaker 1: them with all the pieces you need to win in a.

1110
00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 2: Fifty three man roster.

1111
00:49:04,239 --> 00:49:06,360
Speaker 1: I think it's hurt the Chiefs this year too, Like

1112
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 1: you start to see that the caps start to affect

1113
00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:11,879
Speaker 1: the roster as a whole, and whenever that starts to happen,

1114
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:14,280
Speaker 1: It's why these young It's why the Jalen Hurts Eagles

1115
00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 1: are so good, because you can afford to go out

1116
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 1: there and do lots of other things. It's why the

1117
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:20,600
Speaker 1: early Mahomes teams were so good. The Josh Allen's were

1118
00:49:20,640 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 1: so good. Once you start paying the quarterback that exorbitant

1119
00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:26,520
Speaker 1: amount of money. The Brady Patriots stayed so good for

1120
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:28,960
Speaker 1: years and years because Brady always took pay cuts and

1121
00:49:29,360 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 1: they surrounded him with more talent.

1122
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 2: Go ahead, Yeah, you're chopping at the bit here.

1123
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:36,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't want to give Packers GM Brian Goode

1124
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:39,320
Speaker 4: counts to pass for saying, you know, it's it's Aaron

1125
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:42,759
Speaker 4: Rodgers cap number. That's like keeping them from improving the personnel.

1126
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 4: I mean, obviously, the Jordan Love decision was completely mind boggling,

1127
00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:49,720
Speaker 4: mind boggling.

1128
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:50,200
Speaker 5: Only stupid.

1129
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:53,120
Speaker 4: You sign one free agent wide receiver in the off

1130
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:57,640
Speaker 4: season and it's Sammy Watkins, and you you draft, You

1131
00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 4: spend one early draft pick on a wide receiver, and

1132
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:04,759
Speaker 4: it's the one wide receiver least ready to contribute immediately

1133
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 4: in Christian Watson, who could turn out to be a

1134
00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 4: terrific player. But I mean, like he was the greenest

1135
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:13,759
Speaker 4: of all the top wide receiver prospects, and so like

1136
00:50:13,920 --> 00:50:18,040
Speaker 4: it's it's just been a series of stupefyingly bad drafts.

1137
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 5: Gouda Kunz stays a terrible drafter.

1138
00:50:20,640 --> 00:50:22,360
Speaker 4: He's just like I mean, I think he's like a

1139
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:25,720
Speaker 4: Ryan Pace level general manager, which hurts me to say

1140
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:28,880
Speaker 4: as a Packers fan. But Gudah Kunst is terrible at

1141
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:31,799
Speaker 4: his job. So it's not all about the Rogers cap number.

1142
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:33,839
Speaker 1: There's Ron Wolf, may we get him back here. By

1143
00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:36,280
Speaker 1: the way, the Bills and Packers are on Sunday Night football.

1144
00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:38,040
Speaker 1: To really think that Josh Allen isn't gonna get pumped

1145
00:50:38,080 --> 00:50:40,239
Speaker 1: up or Sunday Night Football. I mean, geez, all right,

1146
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 1: let's get to this last one here. The Cincinnati Bengals

1147
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 1: take on the Cleveland Browns. The Cincinnati Bengals seem to

1148
00:50:44,960 --> 00:50:46,839
Speaker 1: be going in the right direction after they really tough

1149
00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:48,880
Speaker 1: start to the season. They are three point favorites on

1150
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 1: the road. Forty seven is the number if you like

1151
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:53,480
Speaker 1: the Browns for the upset, and I don't. It's plus

1152
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 1: one thirty five. But Fitz, what do you see in

1153
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:57,320
Speaker 1: this contest here? At any value in the look ahead

1154
00:50:57,800 --> 00:50:58,160
Speaker 1: I do.

1155
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 4: I'm gonna take the Bengals. I've got them as a

1156
00:51:01,080 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 4: three and a half point favorite. They have scored twenty

1157
00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 4: seven or more points and for their last five the

1158
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:10,279
Speaker 4: only time where they failed to hit that number was

1159
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:12,759
Speaker 4: in their nineteen seventeen loss to the Ravens a couple

1160
00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:16,160
Speaker 4: of weeks ago. And the Browns defense is really bad.

1161
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:18,879
Speaker 4: Like I think the Bengals have a clicking and they're

1162
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:20,320
Speaker 4: just going to march up and down the field.

1163
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:23,839
Speaker 1: All right, Friedman, your thoughts on this game here?

1164
00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:27,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, as fits with talking. I was betting on this game.

1165
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:29,920
Speaker 3: So the line is three, and I have it at

1166
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:32,400
Speaker 3: three point seventy five, which is enough for me to

1167
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:36,439
Speaker 3: think that betting on it is value. Here totally with him,

1168
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:41,280
Speaker 3: the Bengals have looked rejuvenated as they've shifted their offensive

1169
00:51:41,280 --> 00:51:44,680
Speaker 3: philosophy just putting Burrow in the shotgun, not so much

1170
00:51:44,719 --> 00:51:48,000
Speaker 3: abandoning the run, but abandoning the style of running game

1171
00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 3: that they have. And it's really freed up the offense

1172
00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:54,480
Speaker 3: where they can just let him rip it and he's

1173
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:56,520
Speaker 3: crushing in the passing game right now.

1174
00:51:57,360 --> 00:52:01,640
Speaker 1: All right, let's recap everything here with our three favorite

1175
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 1: look ahead bets. If you have three this week, Friedman,

1176
00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:06,879
Speaker 1: you're up first. What are the three things or two

1177
00:52:07,120 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 1: or one even that you want to lock in here

1178
00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 1: early on, regardless of how disgusting you might feel, Man.

1179
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 3: The Saints definitely there at plus two plus two and

1180
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:20,839
Speaker 3: a half. I have this projected for the Saints as

1181
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 3: slight favorites. I think Fits has it around a pick them,

1182
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 3: but that's definitely one that I would be wanting to bet.

1183
00:52:28,080 --> 00:52:33,719
Speaker 2: And then yeah, Houston, maybe I don't know.

1184
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:35,480
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna say I'm gonna stick with that one.

1185
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:37,799
Speaker 3: I'm gonna stay with the Saints, right now all.

1186
00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:39,400
Speaker 1: Right, how about you, Pat, what do you want to

1187
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:40,839
Speaker 1: lock in here at the end of the day.

1188
00:52:41,560 --> 00:52:44,920
Speaker 4: Saints at plus two for sure, and then I think

1189
00:52:44,920 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 4: I'm inclined to do a couple of these unders that

1190
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:49,360
Speaker 4: we were talking about Joe, like Panthers Falcons.

1191
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:50,600
Speaker 5: That one just jumps out.

1192
00:52:50,640 --> 00:52:54,840
Speaker 4: I don't see how that one gets too anywhere close

1193
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:55,400
Speaker 4: to forty.

1194
00:52:57,120 --> 00:52:59,319
Speaker 5: No, actually, I'll take that back. And for a third one,

1195
00:52:59,360 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 5: I want to.

1196
00:52:59,680 --> 00:53:02,040
Speaker 4: Jump up the Buccaneers like I think they are going

1197
00:53:02,120 --> 00:53:05,600
Speaker 4: to come roaring back coming off that humiliation like this. There,

1198
00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 4: they've got issues, but they're too good to you swallow

1199
00:53:10,160 --> 00:53:13,320
Speaker 4: a loss like that and not be feisty the next week.

1200
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:15,000
Speaker 2: Okay, I've got one more.

1201
00:53:15,040 --> 00:53:19,680
Speaker 3: I've got one more here in the spirit of unders, Jacksonville,

1202
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:23,359
Speaker 3: Denver under forty again, I bet projected in like around

1203
00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:24,919
Speaker 3: thirty eight or so, thirty eight and a half.

1204
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:27,839
Speaker 1: I think there's value there. One hundred percent agree. There

1205
00:53:27,880 --> 00:53:30,160
Speaker 1: you have it. That's the early look ahead for week eight.

1206
00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:32,040
Speaker 1: If you need more help, and of course we're always

1207
00:53:32,040 --> 00:53:34,360
Speaker 1: here for you when you do, make sure you subscribe

1208
00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:37,080
Speaker 1: to our YouTube channel here at Betting Pros. And also,

1209
00:53:37,120 --> 00:53:38,920
Speaker 1: don't forget to go to bettingpros dot com check out

1210
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 1: all the great content and of course find all the

1211
00:53:41,239 --> 00:53:44,040
Speaker 1: best lines for you to wager upon. And we also

1212
00:53:44,040 --> 00:53:46,120
Speaker 1: have that prop bet cheat sheet too for every single

1213
00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:49,719
Speaker 1: game the projections vers Vegas how to take advantage of

1214
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:51,320
Speaker 1: them while that's the prop bet cheat sheet, And of

1215
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 1: course thanks to BETMGM, the sponsor of the show, The

1216
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:57,680
Speaker 1: King of Sportsbooks, download the bet mgm app today. That'll

1217
00:53:57,719 --> 00:53:58,920
Speaker 1: do it for us, But the story of the game

1218
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:01,799
Speaker 1: goes on for Matt and I'm Joey P. We'll see

1219
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:02,319
Speaker 1: you next time.

1220
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:06,680
Speaker 2: Kids. H