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Speaker 1: And good morning to everybody.

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Speaker 2: On this Saturday, March the sixteenth, we have excuse me, Sunday,

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Speaker 2: March the sixteenth, we have Ken Harbaugh and we have

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Speaker 2: Jacob Cospo from Denmark with us, a former intelligence officer

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Speaker 2: of His Majesty's service in the Kingdom. We are at

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Speaker 2: war day sixteen. I believe, how's it going, Ken?

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Speaker 3: Well, if you listen to the administration, which you shouldn't,

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Speaker 3: it's going well. It's the biggest best war in America's history.

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Speaker 3: I think if people haven't learned this lesson by now,

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Speaker 3: this war should drive the point home. We cannot believe

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Speaker 3: anything that this administration. A few months ago we were

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Speaker 3: sure their nuclear program was obliterated. Now we're going after

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Speaker 3: it again. For some reason, the rationale given for waging

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Speaker 3: this war have varied from taking out their nuclear program

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Speaker 3: to regime change to retaliation for their interference in our elections.

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Speaker 3: It keeps changing every time. The most important question now, though,

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Speaker 3: is what's the plan? What are we doing? How do

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Speaker 3: we get out of this? And it seems like at

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Speaker 3: every turn we are escalating. Even as the President is

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Speaker 3: trying to undo the forces he has unleashed, they are

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Speaker 3: out of his control. We warned from the beginning that

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Speaker 3: this would grow out of control. Allies are having to

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Speaker 3: bail us out, even though they're very reluctant to do so.

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Speaker 3: In the span of one week, the President said to

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Speaker 3: the Brits, we don't need your help. Thanks anyway, you're

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Speaker 3: too late. Now we are begging for help escorting ships

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Speaker 3: through the straight of horror moves, which isn't going to

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Speaker 3: solve the problem anyway, because an escort doesn't deal with

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Speaker 3: the mind, right.

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Speaker 2: Jacob, if you were briefing a Danish Prime minister and

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Speaker 2: you were just put on the spot, you had to

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Speaker 2: walk in and tell them what's going on. How do

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Speaker 2: you analyze what's happening in Iran right now and project out,

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Speaker 2: if you would, the next two weeks. What does this

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Speaker 2: look like at a month into it?

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Speaker 4: It looks like a US operation where the political leadership

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Speaker 4: continuously misreads their opponent. And when you're at war and

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Speaker 4: you misread your opponent, it often has disastrous consequences. And

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Speaker 4: we're seeing one of those consequences now play out in

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Speaker 4: the Strait of Hormus. And sure enough, when that happens,

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump continues to misread his opponent because when he

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Speaker 4: then threatens to obliterate the oil infrastructure in Carg Island,

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Speaker 4: the Iranian regime doesn't say, ah, okay, in that case,

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Speaker 4: we start. No, they hadden their stance and they say, okay, Well,

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Speaker 4: if if Donald Trump bumps the oil infrastructure and Kag Island,

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Speaker 4: he'll even make this economic pressure that we're putting on

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Speaker 4: the global economy, not least the US, He'll he'll contribute

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Speaker 4: actually to the war that we're waging. So so unfortunately,

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump does all the all the wrong things, and

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Speaker 4: it's quite obvious there's no strategy, there's no clearly defined goals.

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Speaker 4: They are not the means to deal with these issues.

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Speaker 4: And and clearly the administration haven't hasn't prepared for all

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Speaker 4: these consequences we're seeing, not in the Strait of Hormuz,

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Speaker 4: not in the in the Gulf region as it is.

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Speaker 4: So unfortunately, there was playing right into the hands of

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Speaker 4: the headliners in the Ringian regime.

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Speaker 2: Ken how do you assess the performance of the Chairman

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Speaker 2: of the Joint chiefs of Staff. The question that I

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Speaker 2: keep having in my mind is he is not in

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Speaker 2: Pete Hagsa's chain of command.

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Speaker 1: He sent it.

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Speaker 2: Confirmed He's the principal military advisor to the President of

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Speaker 2: the United States, and he has every ability to say simply,

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Speaker 2: I'm not going out there with him. If that's how

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Speaker 2: he's going to conduct himself, I'm certainly not going to

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Speaker 2: do it. Standing in uniform, wearing wearing four stars.

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Speaker 1: I will not I will not countenance it.

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Speaker 2: I won't do it, and I suspect he'd be he'd

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Speaker 2: be successful at that. How how should we think about

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Speaker 2: General Kane in his performance to two weeks in.

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Speaker 3: Up until this point, a lot of people were giving

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Speaker 3: General kin some credit for being less crazy than we

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Speaker 3: feared he might be recalled that his only qualification, or

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Speaker 3: his main qualification, was wearing a Maga hat as a

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Speaker 3: three star and reportedly telling President Trump, I will kill

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Speaker 3: for you, sir, not I will kill for the American

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Speaker 3: people or for my oath at the Constitution. I will

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Speaker 3: kill for you, sir. I don't think he is. I

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Speaker 3: know I think Trump is a liar. The problem is

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Speaker 3: that the general had ample opportunity to challenge that, to say, no, actually,

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Speaker 3: my duty is to the Constitution. So the very fact

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Speaker 3: that Trump felt that he could freely lie about his

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Speaker 3: general about something this important and not elicit a response

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Speaker 3: that was a test, and the fact that he wouldn't

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Speaker 3: say something in that moment tells me he's not saying

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Speaker 3: the important things this moment in the Oval office, when

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Speaker 3: the president needs to hear tough advice, when the president

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Speaker 3: needs to be told this is a really dumb idea.

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Speaker 3: The man who couldn't challenge the president on that what

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Speaker 3: I assume to be a fundamental lie at the outset

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Speaker 3: of his confirmation, I don't think is going to challenge

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Speaker 3: the president when it comes to things like the bombing

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Speaker 3: of carg Island, or the closing of the Strait of

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Speaker 3: Horror Moose, or the shifting rationales. We have not prepared

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Speaker 3: as a country at all for this, and I'm not

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Speaker 3: just talking about militarily the fact that we didn't bring

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Speaker 3: our mind sweepers into the theater before this operation took place,

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Speaker 3: but economically, we didn't refill the strategic petroleum reserves. We

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Speaker 3: have done nothing that suggests that this administration understood what

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Speaker 3: it was getting itself into. And you have in the

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Speaker 3: person of Secretary Hegset, someone who looks at more like

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Speaker 3: a video game that it's just a matter of degrading

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Speaker 3: their missile capability, degrading their air force and navy. For

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Speaker 3: those still cheerly this administration, I just got one question,

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Speaker 3: how long did a rocks navy last? How long did

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Speaker 3: their air force last? And yet how long did the

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Speaker 3: war last? We are not going to fight this war

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Speaker 3: on Iron's terms. They get a vote.

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Speaker 2: Well, in that eternal contest between Pete Hagsath and Clausewetz,

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Speaker 2: we'll have to go with Clausewetz, who thought war was,

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Speaker 2: above all things, a moral proposition of of of testing

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Speaker 2: there what Jacob, if you were, if you were called

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Speaker 2: in to the to the White House to speak truth

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Speaker 2: to power about where this, about where this stands right now,

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Speaker 2: and about how to get out of it, what would

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Speaker 2: you say?

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Speaker 4: I would say, We're in a hole, and apparently we

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Speaker 4: keep digging because we've started something that clearly was ill prepared.

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Speaker 4: We've not done any analysis of consequences, etc. And the

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Speaker 4: Iranians know all this, because you can say a lot

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Speaker 4: of things about them, but they're not done. And unfortunately,

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Speaker 4: right now, their whole idea of the conflict is or

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Speaker 4: the war, is to drag it out and create a

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Speaker 4: quagmire because they know it will work against their opponent,

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Speaker 4: namely the US. So I will I will say, either

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Speaker 4: you go pull on with a clearly defined goal. And

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Speaker 4: I'm sorry to say, but it's going to be very

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Speaker 4: hard to go full on now because how are you

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Speaker 4: going to get a coalition behind you with the whole

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Speaker 4: world watching is what's happening? Or you you go to

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Speaker 4: damage limitation. But the unfortunate thing is you could say, okay,

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Speaker 4: then we de escalate, go to damage limited. But again,

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Speaker 4: the Iranians, it's going to be very hard to make

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Speaker 4: a deal with them to stop the economic warfare that

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Speaker 4: they're going to wage because they don't want to go

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Speaker 4: back to the things that they were. They want an

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Speaker 4: improved position, and they want to get the US out

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Speaker 4: of the Gulf region, and and and they'll keep at it.

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Speaker 4: There's only there's only a low probability that they will say, okay,

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Speaker 4: then we we go back to things as they were before.

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Speaker 4: That's not what I see coming. So that's what I

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Speaker 4: would inform the president.

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Speaker 1: And the war.

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Speaker 2: The war started with the declaration if I'm if I'm correct,

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Speaker 2: and I can remember all the way back then that

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Speaker 2: the purpose of this there have been many but can

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Speaker 2: it was to change the regime. Is that not the

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Speaker 2: paramount reason we are we are? Do you recall that

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Speaker 2: as the paramount?

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Speaker 3: I do you recall that vision in the interim there

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Speaker 3: was a demand for unconditional surrender. When the Iranians receive

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Speaker 3: a message like that, they look at the example of

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Speaker 3: Japan and Germany. Do you think they're going to come

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Speaker 3: to the negotiating table if that is the president's opening position.

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Speaker 3: We also had the president railing about Iranian election interference.

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Speaker 3: We had him talking about degrading their missile capability, their

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Speaker 3: nuclear capability. And that's the real wild card here, the

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Speaker 3: one thing that really sets Iran apart from Iraq much

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Speaker 3: less Venezuela. And remember also that the president reportedly told

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Speaker 3: his advisors, let's do it like we did Venezuela. I mean,

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Speaker 3: that should make every military planner's head explode. Totally different scenario.

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Speaker 3: Iran as a nation of ninety three million people half

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Speaker 3: a world away. Venezuela is in our backyard, and we

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Speaker 3: couldn't even change the regime there. For what it's worth,

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Speaker 3: still the Maduro regime and power in Venezuela. But the

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Speaker 3: wild card in Iran is the four hundred plus pounds

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Speaker 3: of enriched uranium that as far as I know, we

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Speaker 3: have no record of where it is. It's certainly not

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Speaker 3: at fourdou ornatans. They knew to move it, right, and

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Speaker 3: four hundred pounds is not that much to spread around

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Speaker 3: to mask with other medical isotopes that can give off

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Speaker 3: false signatures. This stuff is going to be really tough

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Speaker 3: to find. Even if we can find it, it's going

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Speaker 3: to take boots on the ground. The one well, airpower

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Speaker 3: can't do a lot of things, among them change a regime.

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Speaker 3: It certainly cannot secure loose nuclear material. Airpower is not

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Speaker 3: going to do that, which is why you hear this

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Speaker 3: administration now teasing the idea of boots on the ground

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Speaker 3: because they have unleashed Pandora's Box.

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Speaker 2: And Jacob, you have said that an operation and I'm

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Speaker 2: not trying to is is the amount? Is it four

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Speaker 2: hundred pounds or is it four hundred kilograms of enriched uranium?

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Speaker 1: Is that what that's about?

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Speaker 4: That's about double hundred, Yeah, five hundred and sixty kilograms.

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Speaker 2: And sixty kilograms two point two pounds per per kilogram.

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Speaker 2: For the Americans watching today, Jacob, you talked about this

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Speaker 2: being one hundred times more complicated than the operation to

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Speaker 2: get in lot in Operation Neptune Neptune Spear to go

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Speaker 2: get the enriched your enriched uranium. When when you look

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Speaker 2: at this in the trajectory of it, both of you,

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Speaker 2: Ken Jacob, are are we inevitably uh heading towards a

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Speaker 2: situation where there's American combat troops on the ground in

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Speaker 2: in Iran doing something.

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Speaker 4: I will say, it's it's not inevitable because you never

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Speaker 4: know what Donald Trump is going to come up with.

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Speaker 4: But but this sad thing is we have the four

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Speaker 4: hundred and sixty kilograms of highly enriched uranium. That's a

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Speaker 4: problem you are unlikely to solve. And unless you put

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Speaker 4: a substantial number of forces on the ground, we have

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Speaker 4: the problem of an even more radical regime now than

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Speaker 4: than than what it was I believe it or not.

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Speaker 4: We have the problem of the strait of hom Us,

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Speaker 4: and all these things together leaves the US in a

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Speaker 4: worst in a worse position, And as long as the

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Speaker 4: regime is there, these these things aren't likely to change. So,

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Speaker 4: as I was saying, the Donald Trump is just digging

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Speaker 4: the whole ever ever deeper. So it's it's a really

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Speaker 4: bad situation. But is then just going to declare some

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Speaker 4: insane victory where everyone should know it isn't and and

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Speaker 4: and then walk away and and let the rest of

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Speaker 4: the world deal with it. Or will he will he

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Speaker 4: up the ante and and go in with the full forces.

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Speaker 4: I'm not in a position to answer that question because

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Speaker 4: but it's said, the dilemma is getting hotter and hotter.

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Speaker 2: What would the reaction and be be den Mark if

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Speaker 2: if the Prime minister came out and said we have

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Speaker 2: to send forces to fight with the Americans.

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Speaker 4: There's absolutely no chance because everyone here knows that Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump came close to taking Greenland militarily, so so so

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Speaker 4: where we have engaged in all the other wars in

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Speaker 4: the in the Middle East, be it Liviya, be it Afghanistan,

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Speaker 4: be the Iraq. Why I served along with the two

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Speaker 4: of you, I guess then you know this, this is it.

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Speaker 4: We can't we can't come and help Donald Trump when

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Speaker 4: he has threatened to take part of our own territory.

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Speaker 4: That's I can't see that happen at all. I did

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Speaker 4: not I will go for much of Europe.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I did not.

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Speaker 2: I did not serve in the military in Iraq or

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Speaker 2: Afghanistan like like Ken did, but I wanted I wanted

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Speaker 2: to ask Ken. A few weeks back before we went

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Speaker 2: to war, it was clear to us that we were

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Speaker 2: going to go to war, and we did the first

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Speaker 2: of our Saturday UH talks about it, and we talked

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Speaker 2: about that soon we would be at war. And one

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Speaker 2: of the things we talked about was the straights of

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Speaker 2: Horror Moves. And if I recall the question, and I

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Speaker 2: asked you, I asked, I say, Ken, have you ever

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Speaker 2: sailed through the straits of horn Moose? And you said,

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Speaker 2: you said, in the answer to that question, you said,

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Speaker 2: I have sailed through the straits of Horror Moves. And

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Speaker 2: I asked you to describe the straits of her Moves.

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Speaker 2: And what you said is, the straits of horn Moves

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Speaker 2: are very, very narrow, and you can see across the

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Speaker 2: straits of Horror Moves from one.

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Speaker 1: Side to the other the entire way.

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Speaker 2: And of course that narrow boundary waterway between Iran and

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Speaker 2: Oman is exactly as you described. And so apparently General

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Speaker 2: Kine and others said to Donald Trump that we can

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Speaker 2: bomb them into submission back into the Stone Age, as

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Speaker 2: was the parlance once once used during the Vietnam war,

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Speaker 2: we bomb them back into the stone age. We that

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Speaker 2: that that bombing them does not mean that we will

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Speaker 2: control and command the Straits of Hormuz, through which twenty

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Speaker 2: percent of the world's crew passes. And so we've triggered

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Speaker 2: the biggest oil shock in in history. As a naval

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Speaker 2: officer who's been deployed out on out on the ships

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Speaker 2: in that in that in that part of the world,

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Speaker 2: what how does this wrap up? They they control doesn't

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Speaker 2: even have to be by missile artillery alone, can can

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Speaker 2: hit these?

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Speaker 1: Can hit these? Can hit these ships? Well?

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Speaker 2: How does this end in the Straits of Hormuz? How

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Speaker 2: does the Straits of Hormuz open? How do we compel

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Speaker 2: them to open it? Because it seems like the threats

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Speaker 2: that that Donald is issuing will blow up this this

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Speaker 2: will happen been I mean, it's almost like an Austin Powers.

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Speaker 1: Movie at some level.

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Speaker 2: How do the straits reopen absent An America and withdraw

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Speaker 2: from the military attacks.

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Speaker 3: I wish I knew, and I can almost guarantee you

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Speaker 3: that the people who should know don't know either, because

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Speaker 3: of what they have unleashed. The idea that bombing a

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Speaker 3: country of ninety three million back into the Stone Age

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Speaker 3: is going to solve it, first of all, really tough

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Speaker 3: to do. It's going to require a lot of war crimes,

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Speaker 3: which Pete Hagsath the problem apparently has no problem with.

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Speaker 3: But have we learned nothing from Afghanistan? This is a

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Speaker 3: I'm being a little bit pejorative, but a Stone Age

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Speaker 3: society that sent America packing they are They're not going

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Speaker 3: to fight this war on our terms. They're going to

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Speaker 3: fight it on their terms. And I'll give you another

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Speaker 3: analogy that I know will resonate with every navy per

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Speaker 3: but hopefully with others. The USS coal had one of

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Speaker 3: the most advanced anti missile systems in the history of warfare,

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Speaker 3: along with its picket ships. Was it a missile that

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Speaker 3: nearly sank the coal and killed seventeen my shipmates? No,

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Speaker 3: it was a tugboat. That's asymmetric warfare. That's Aron's approach

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Speaker 3: to warfare. This is art of war Sun to one

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Speaker 3: oh one. As Jacob said at the top, you got

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Speaker 3: to know your enemy and I fiving each other because

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Speaker 3: we've degraded their missile capability or destroyed their navy or

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Speaker 3: air force. To me is an indication that they don't

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Speaker 3: understand their enemy at all. You can push a mine

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Speaker 3: off the back of a fishing boat, you can push

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Speaker 3: a mine off the back of a tugboat. And the

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Speaker 3: other insidious thing about minds is that they just they

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Speaker 3: wander right, They're floating out there, many of them. Some

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Speaker 3: of them are obviously stationary. But this is a problem

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Speaker 3: that is going to plague us for years, for years,

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Speaker 3: and we do not have an answer to it. It

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Speaker 3: is one hundred times easier to lay a mind, especially

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Speaker 3: a water mine like that, than it is to clear it.

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Speaker 3: And we didn't even have our mind sweepers in theater

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Speaker 3: at the time. Somebody should go to jail for that one.

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Speaker 2: There is a war underway, Jacob on European soil that

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Speaker 2: has incurred over a million Russian casualties, a million, two

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Speaker 2: hundred thousand, plus immense casualties on the side of Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: I was struck reading something that I knew, but I

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Speaker 2: guess I didn't fit the two pieces together with some

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Speaker 2: emotional resonance that I was able to understand. But during

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Speaker 2: nineteen forty four, at the height of America and military

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Speaker 2: power in the Second World War, we produced eighty eight

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Speaker 2: thousand aircraft and those eighty eight thousand aircraft supplied the

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Speaker 2: whole of the Allied air forces across across the European

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Speaker 2: and the Pacific theaters of operation, and we had control

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Speaker 2: of the skies. We were masters of the air. As

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Speaker 2: the author said, by nineteen forty five, eighty eight thousand planes.

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Speaker 2: Ukraine alone will produce seven million drones this year, seven million.

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Speaker 1: Drones. Seven million.

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Speaker 2: And so when you think about drones and you think

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Speaker 2: about Iran, and you think about the size of the country,

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Speaker 2: and you think about the military, and you think about

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Speaker 2: the fact that sixteen days in the regime grip on

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Speaker 2: the people doesn't seem likely to lessen in the immediate future,

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Speaker 2: is what is the path to victory here?

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Speaker 4: That in Iran, I don't really see a path. The

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Speaker 4: sad thing also, now that you brought up Ukraine is

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Speaker 4: that what we can see also is that the technology

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Speaker 4: that the Iranians and the Russians have developed together in

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Speaker 4: terms of the drone capability, is wondering back to Iran

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Speaker 4: as well. So what we've seen these first fifteen sixteen

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Speaker 4: days of the war is that the Iranians have actually

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Speaker 4: learned and improved due to the Russian experiences in Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: So not only is Ukraine stepping in to help the

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Speaker 4: the Gulf monarchies, but but the Iranians are also getting

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Speaker 4: held the other way around. That's why, that's why we

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Speaker 4: are seeing their improvement, the way they've been able to hit,

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Speaker 4: for example, the American radar systems, the SAD radars, the

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Speaker 4: sa Ram yesterday at the embassy in Baghdad, et cetera,

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Speaker 4: et cetera. So this is going to be a long haul.

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Speaker 4: And just to recap from before, what you were saying

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Speaker 4: about the Strait of ho Musik can it's it's it's

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Speaker 4: unlikely that.

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Speaker 5: There's a that that that there's an a diplomatic off

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Speaker 5: ramp for for Donald Trump that will open the strait,

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Speaker 5: because the Iranians are already fixated on on each in large,

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Speaker 5: even larger motives than just you know, the US in

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Speaker 5: Israels stopping bombing them.

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Speaker 4: They want the US forces out of Kuwait, out of Bahrain,

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Speaker 4: out of Kata, out of the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure they are going to get that, but

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Speaker 4: they'll keep at it. And that's why the Strait of

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Speaker 4: Hormuz is key to them. And it's not only about mines,

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Speaker 4: it's about the naval missiles, it's about fast speedboats, it's

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Speaker 4: about the drones. Maritime drone capability that we've also seen

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Speaker 4: seen improved and used. The Tanka that was sunk up

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Speaker 4: in the northern part of the of the Gulf near

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Speaker 4: Iraq was actually quite a sophisticated naval drone. So unfortunately,

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Speaker 4: these things are also improving what the Iranian regime can

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Speaker 4: do and with stand. So it is unfortunately a Quakemaia Way,

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Speaker 4: I can I can't see a path to success. And Steve,

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Speaker 4: I'm sorry if I missed some of your questions. Someone

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Speaker 4: was trying to call me, so my audio will switch stuff. No, no, no,

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Speaker 4: I just picked it up.

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Speaker 2: Our friend Ken Harbaugh is in his car. As you

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Speaker 2: can see, he has been caught up in the Great

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Speaker 2: Cleveland windstorm and he's had no power for two days,

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Speaker 2: and so I understand that his phone is running low.

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Speaker 2: It's tick it's tiktoking down like any adventure movie. But

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Speaker 2: we we well, we still have can and I'll and

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Speaker 2: i'll and i'll and I'll wrap it up here with

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Speaker 2: Ken that when we get back together next week. I

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Speaker 2: don't I don't think things will have drifted and to

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Speaker 2: a better trajectory from the worldview that's being espoused by

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. But I want to ask you something specifically

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Speaker 2: as a naval officer. As more and more details come

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Speaker 2: out about the first sinking of a warship by an

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Speaker 2: American submarine since August of nineteen forty five, apparently the

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Speaker 2: ship that was sunk was unarmed. We knew it was

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Speaker 2: an unarmed ship. It was coming back from a naval

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Speaker 2: parade at the invitation of the Indian government of which

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Speaker 2: we were invited to participate as well, and had responded

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Speaker 2: affirmatively that pulled out its last minute. I'm sure when

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Speaker 2: you were with the fleet, you've been in a naval

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Speaker 2: parader parade or two over the years. And so we

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Speaker 2: sunk this ship. We gave no quarter to the survivors.

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Speaker 2: We did not surface, We did not uh deploy any

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Speaker 2: type of life saving measures, took no uh prisoners of

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Speaker 2: war aboard.

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Speaker 1: UH, we went away. Pete Hagsath referred to it as

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Speaker 1: quiet death. UH.

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Speaker 2: Two weeks later he's excuse me. A week later he's

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Speaker 2: talking about we we won't give any quarter to two prisoners,

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Speaker 2: you know, UH. A US nuclear submarine surfacing behind an

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Speaker 2: unarmed warship and pointing a gun at it, and and

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Speaker 2: from behind and and saying surrender is a is a

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Speaker 2: powerful thing. A lot of ways to communicate that we

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Speaker 2: could have seized that warship. Uh, under a number of

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Speaker 2: different scenarios.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 2: How how when you talk about this with with veterans,

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Speaker 2: particularly naval officers, the sinking of the submarine?

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Speaker 1: Is this?

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Speaker 2: Is this coming up when when we think about this

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Speaker 2: more deeply, as the Navy looks at this with more circumspection,

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Speaker 2: let's say, in the next year or so, we're imagining

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Speaker 2: when Donald Trump isn't president anywhere, How should we think

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Speaker 2: about what happened with this sinking of an Iranian frigate

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Speaker 2: office Free Laka by US submarine.

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Speaker 3: Offering no quarter is a war crime. It's a war

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Speaker 3: crime according to international statute and US law. The DoD's

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Speaker 3: Law of War Manual has a specific provision a paragraph

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Speaker 3: dedicated with the same language offering no quarter is impermissible.

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Speaker 3: That means not giving an enemy combatant who's unarmed, who's

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Speaker 3: not in the fight, a chance to surrender. And the

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Speaker 3: fact that the Secretary of Defense would say that behind

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Speaker 3: the seal of the United States. I've got people in

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Speaker 3: the military reaching out to me now asking are we

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Speaker 3: the good guys? And it's a fair question. During my

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Speaker 3: entire time in the Navy, I never once had to

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Speaker 3: wonder are we the good guys? But people are asking

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Speaker 3: that again and again because we're violating not only international law.

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Speaker 3: We're a signatory to the nineteen oh seven Hatred nineteen

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Speaker 3: forty nine Geneva Conventions, and we have it embedded in

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Speaker 3: our own law of war doctrines. You don't go into

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Speaker 3: a conflict like this, any conflict, offering no quarter to

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Speaker 3: the enemy. And it seems almost a point of sick

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Speaker 3: pride for this Secretary of Defense. I'm talking about, of course,

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Speaker 3: his press conference on Friday, but before that he talked

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Speaker 3: about dispensing with quote stupid rules of engagement. You know

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Speaker 3: what that leads to. That leads to Mali. That is

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Speaker 3: the SS approach to war. And we have a Secretary

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00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 3: of Defense who was proud of it, remembering, of course

435
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 3: that he his audition for this role was through advocating

436
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 3: for war criminals. That's how we got President Trump's attention.

437
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 3: Writing a book excusing war crimes.

438
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 2: You got a put yourself on the submarine. Submarine's gonna

439
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 2: be commanded by a commander, by an O five. Put

440
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 2: yourself there as an O three. You're the you're the

441
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 2: weapons officer on the boat. You're one of the You're

442
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 2: one of the small handful of officers. And so the

443
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 2: order coms, You're gonna sink the frigate. You sink the frigate.

444
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 2: You know this is not the Solomon Islands in nineteen

445
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:31,479
Speaker 2: nineteen forty three. There is no great Iranian fleet out there. Uh,

446
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 2: that's it. You sank the Iranian. The Iranian boat up.

447
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 2: We have lost Ken. He's out of power. It went faster,

448
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 2: It went faster than I thought. The question I was

449
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 2: going to ask Ken is when they fired the torpedo

450
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 2: and their survivors in the water and they're in they're

451
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 2: watching this, the decision to lurk away, not to not

452
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 2: to surface. As a junior officer on the boat, I

453
00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 2: was curious what his what his what his response would

454
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 2: have been. But I'm going to get him on I'm

455
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 2: going to get him on that.

456
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 1: Get him on.

457
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 2: That later, Jacob, I'll get I'll give you the last

458
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 2: word in the in the last in the last question.

459
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 2: So Trump now is is asking and this is this

460
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 2: is beyond the beyond in terms of I don't know

461
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 2: whether it's parody or force or irony or a.

462
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 1: Mix of all three.

463
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 2: But now he's asking NATO allies to come UH to

464
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 2: the rescue of the American position in the Middle East,

465
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 2: and I suppose use their fleets as escorts UH to

466
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 2: various flag tankers transmitting transiting the U transiting the Straits

467
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 2: of straight to horror moves.

468
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 1: What do you think the.

469
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 2: Reaction is is to that? And I want you to

470
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 2: answer the question, UH by by at two levels. First,

471
00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 2: the government reaction, you know that's going to be consistent

472
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 2: across NATO. But but but then also put into consideration

473
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 2: the popular reaction, just just your average person on the street.

474
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 4: Yeah. Well, I think the governments are going to say

475
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 4: we'll deal with it our own way. From what I know,

476
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 4: the French and the Italians have already been in discussions

477
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 4: with the Iranians to to get ships through. So we're

478
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 4: not going to be involved as a party that gets

479
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 4: ships through by force. I don't see that that happening.

480
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 4: After what has happened and how Donald Trumps dealing dealing

481
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 4: with the with this war and dealing with Europe as

482
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 4: a as a whole. So so you know, the the

483
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 4: Iranian approach to this blockade is also you know, they

484
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 4: want to they want to divide between who's fighting us

485
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 4: and who aren't fighting us. And the way this war

486
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 4: has been handled by Donald Trump tells me that the

487
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 4: Europeans will say, well, we're not at war with the Iranians,

488
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 4: so we'll talk to them and get what we call

489
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 4: Malcolm mans and I call it the easy pass through

490
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 4: the Strait of Hormus. The Chinese have the easy paths already,

491
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 4: the Turks have the easy paths already, and I actually

492
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 4: think most European governments will say, well, we should get

493
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 4: the easy pass and then let the warring parties deal

494
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 4: with with with their part of this. So you know,

495
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 4: we don't really want to deal with the Iranian regime.

496
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 4: Everyone is against it more or less and also at

497
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 4: the at the level of the broad population. But the

498
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 4: way this this war has been handled, you know, for

499
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 4: our governments to to say to the public, well, we

500
00:34:22,400 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 4: have to we have to be a warring party with

501
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 4: the Americans is going to be hard. And bear in

502
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 4: mind the French has they've even lost a soldier in

503
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:38,280
Speaker 4: in a bal up in the Kurdish area of Iraq.

504
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 4: And still you know they're not going to to to

505
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:48,879
Speaker 4: to get engaged in this in this war. So as

506
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 4: long as the Iranians don't do anything actively against the

507
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 4: European country. You could argue that they came close in

508
00:34:56,360 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 4: the beginning of the war by hitting the French navy

509
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 4: base in the UAE in Abu Dhabi, but but I

510
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 4: think the French have sorted sorted that out and I

511
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 4: haven't seen anything on that for for the past like

512
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 4: twelve that was only the first few days that happened.

513
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 4: So just to say, at the government level and at

514
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 4: the level of the populations, I think we're going to

515
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:31,399
Speaker 4: say sorry, I can't do. And the big the big

516
00:35:31,480 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 4: trouble is this, this energy crisis hits us really hard.

517
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:40,080
Speaker 4: But still I don't I don't think we're going to

518
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 4: engage in a in getting traffic through the strait up

519
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 4: ho must by force.

520
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 2: Well, I think that what you have in the first

521
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 2: two weeks now, as a clarification, is that you have

522
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 2: two primary goals which are which are discernible. The primary

523
00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:03,760
Speaker 2: American goal uh an Israeli goal, which seems unachievable, which

524
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 2: is regime change from the air versus the primary Iranian goal,

525
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 2: which is survival by causing economic chaos and two hundred

526
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 2: two hundred plus dollars barrels per oil on the global market,

527
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:24,280
Speaker 2: that will cause enough economic pain that it will force

528
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 2: an American retreat, and that seems eminently achievable. Is that

529
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 2: when Donald Trump is cornered, Donald Trump, who is incapable

530
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 2: of loss acknowledging defeat, will simply assert that he's a Napoleon,

531
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:48,239
Speaker 2: that he won, that the war is over, and all

532
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 2: hail Trump and America. But that won't be reality, just

533
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:56,880
Speaker 2: like it wasn't reality that he had an election stolen

534
00:36:56,920 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 2: from him. So we see deeper. I think Jacob my friend,

535
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 2: into dangerous days. And we'll talk about this again, talk

536
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 2: about this again next weekend with with Cannon, and I'll

537
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 2: give you the last word here and then.

538
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 1: We'll go on the deck.

539
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 4: I will I will just say, just for for in

540
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 4: all fairness, I will say that Donald Trump has made

541
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:26,799
Speaker 4: one correct call during this war, and that was to

542
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 4: abolish the crazy idea of getting the Kurds to attack

543
00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 4: into into You ran that that would have made it

544
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:41,319
Speaker 4: all even worse. So this is the level we had.

545
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 4: All the other calls that have been made have yes,

546
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 4: As I said, he's just digging the whole even deeper

547
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:48,399
Speaker 4: by the day.

548
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 2: Where I so, where do you where? What do you

549
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 2: think caused him to back off on that? So you

550
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 2: have a you have a sea of terrible ideas. So

551
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 2: you have a you have the Kurds of worse, one

552
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:08,040
Speaker 2: of Earth's stateless people spread across Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria.

553
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 2: The Turks declare any number of Kurdish separatist parties as

554
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:20,480
Speaker 2: terrorist organizations. The US has already sold the Kurds out

555
00:38:20,680 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 2: in northern Iraq a time or two, to say the least.

556
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 2: And so you have this population of Kurds who are

557
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:33,480
Speaker 2: Sunni Muslim who would be funded and armed by the

558
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:37,319
Speaker 2: Israelis and the Americans and set forth, I guess, to

559
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 2: wage sectarian war against Shia Muslims, the Persian majority in

560
00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 2: a country that's eighty twenty you know, Persian Shia Muslim

561
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 2: with about twenty percent ethnic minorities in a country of

562
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:57,880
Speaker 2: ninety three million people at all time. Epic, terrible idea.

563
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 2: But where was the leverage point? Who said?

564
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 1: Fuck no?

565
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:05,360
Speaker 2: Donald like, you can't where did that come from?

566
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:10,839
Speaker 4: I suspect that really really huge fuck no came from

567
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 4: the Turkish president because the Turks would not have it.

568
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 4: Bear in mind, if we look at Iran, there are

569
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:29,799
Speaker 4: twice as many Turkmen and as series like population of

570
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 4: Azerbaijan as there are Kurds, so empowering the Kurds in

571
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:43,840
Speaker 4: Iran and to have them as spearhead a rebellion Ogan

572
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:47,239
Speaker 4: would have gone insane. So it's it could have been.

573
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:58,799
Speaker 4: It could have been the rule of Azerbaijan Aliev as well. No, no,

574
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 4: the that's that's right.

575
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 5: But I I I I I.

576
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 4: Don't I think you know, he's obviously his intelligence community

577
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 4: and and so on would also have said the same thing,

578
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 4: So someone must have gotten through to him. I think

579
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 4: I think good Again, primarily.

580
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 2: That's how I would interpret that as as well. But

581
00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:29,400
Speaker 2: it is it is important to recognize that Donald Trump

582
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:35,240
Speaker 2: can be turned around on on the uh on all.

583
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:35,840
Speaker 1: Of this stuff.

584
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 2: At the at the beginning, if it's the right person

585
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 2: doing the doing the turning, and it says something about

586
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 2: Donald that it's it's erdigon who is the person who

587
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 2: is doing the doing the turning there because he admires them.

588
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 1: And UH with that great.

589
00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 2: Place to end it as we continue to look at,

590
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 2: talk about and study this war unfolding uh in Iran

591
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:08,200
Speaker 2: as we speak. But Jacob, good to see you. Where

592
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 2: can everybody mind on substack in online? Why don't you

593
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 2: shout that out before we say goodbye?

594
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 1: Yeah?

595
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 4: Thanks, Thanks Steve. It was great to be here. You know,

596
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:27,760
Speaker 4: I'm primarily on substack and I do all this also

597
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 4: happy to join and help you in the Save American movement.

598
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 4: We just want to say in America back and the

599
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 4: America we all know and feel is a strong ally,

600
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 4: so we hope that they will arrive.

601
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 2: Jacob, where can people find you on substack? Where can they?

602
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:51,720
Speaker 1: Where can they really?

603
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 4: Easy? It's my name, Jacob Caspo j A C O

604
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 4: B k W A R S b O.

605
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 1: So there you have it.

606
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 2: It's a great it's a great sub stack. I look

607
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:09,400
Speaker 2: forward to reading it, and you are an important voice

608
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 2: in these troubled times. And so Jacob, thank you so

609
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 2: much for taking the time today. And we'll be back

610
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 2: in a week with our good friend Ken.

611
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 4: Thanks a lot, good to be st you got it.

612
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:21,359
Speaker 1: Take care