WEBVTT - Update from an Invasion 0:00:00.040 --> 0:00:02.920 Hey, everybody, Robert Evans here. The episode you're about to 0:00:02.920 --> 0:00:06.200 hear was recorded late last night at like two in 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.319 the morning, due to the time difference between me and Joe, 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:13.840 who is based in Armenia. As you may have heard, 0:00:14.240 --> 0:00:20.079 Azerbijan launched another attack on the independent Armenian majority region 0:00:20.200 --> 0:00:24.800 of Artsak, which is in territory that Azerbaijan claims. Since 0:00:24.800 --> 0:00:27.720 we recorded this a couple hours after the Artzok defense 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:33.040 forces have surrendered, there's currently negotiations and something that's being 0:00:33.080 --> 0:00:36.199 called a ceasefire, although there continue to be reports of 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:41.639 shelling and other violent acts by the Azeri military. It's 0:00:41.720 --> 0:00:44.280 kind of unclear what is going to happen. Tens of 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:49.239 thousands of frightened Armenians have crowded the airport out of Artzok. 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:53.600 Pictures are pretty stunning and sobering, out of fears that 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:57.560 a genocide will be instituted against the Armenian populace in 0:00:57.600 --> 0:01:00.360 that area. The episode You're about to hear is Joe 0:01:00.400 --> 0:01:04.720 and I kind of talking earlier in the invasion, pretty 0:01:04.840 --> 0:01:08.480 soon after it happened, going over some of the history, 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:11.920 what's going on now, fears for the future, so I 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:13.840 thought it was still valuable stuff, but I wanted to 0:01:13.920 --> 0:01:17.600 let you know the situation has advanced since we recorded this, 0:01:17.640 --> 0:01:20.360 as is often the case when you're talking about, you know, 0:01:20.640 --> 0:01:30.240 unfolding events. So thank you. Hey, everyone, welcome to It 0:01:30.280 --> 0:01:37.080 could happen here, a podcast about it happening here, And 0:01:37.680 --> 0:01:41.080 unfortunately for our guest today it is again this is 0:01:41.120 --> 0:01:44.720 not the first time that it has been happening where 0:01:45.840 --> 0:01:50.000 this person happens to live. Joe Kasabian, Joe, Hey, how 0:01:50.080 --> 0:01:50.760 you doing, Buddy? 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:54.560 Hey, Robert, it's I would like to say, it's good 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:56.880 to be back. But you know this tends to happen 0:01:56.920 --> 0:01:57.280 a lot. 0:01:58.360 --> 0:02:01.600 We did you know in between the first time you 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:03.400 were or the last time you were on this show 0:02:03.640 --> 0:02:05.920 and now you know, we had a surprise meeting in 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:07.760 Dublin that was a lovely time. 0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:09.360 That is true. 0:02:09.480 --> 0:02:12.280 That is true. Yeah, And now Joe, you uh, you 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:19.040 are a podcaster, a genocide expert and academic studying that 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:23.400 and also you know, the host of the Lions Led 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:27.000 by Donkeys podcast, which is a lovely podcast. And you 0:02:27.320 --> 0:02:32.320 are based out of Yerevan, which is the capital of Armenia, 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:39.320 which is a country that is not yet being invaded 0:02:39.480 --> 0:02:44.000 but is also in in another way, is being invaded 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:49.320 right now, right, Like it's a it's a complicated situation, basically, 0:02:49.320 --> 0:02:52.000 the gist of it is, folks, if you're if you're 0:02:52.040 --> 0:02:55.400 kind of tuning in, there is a there are a 0:02:55.440 --> 0:02:59.280 number of different like little republics in in the Caucasus region, 0:03:00.520 --> 0:03:03.280 and one of the like over the course of the 0:03:03.360 --> 0:03:06.800 last like I don't know, a couple of thousand years, 0:03:07.960 --> 0:03:11.079 there have been a lot of Armenian people in this 0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:14.760 area that we call the Caucuses, right, and you know, 0:03:14.880 --> 0:03:18.600 you have your you know, a couple of thousand years 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:21.400 of history, you know, around the eleventh century, you get, 0:03:21.480 --> 0:03:24.000 you know, some claims start being made to this area 0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:30.880 in what is now called Karbak Artsak, And yeah, now 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:34.000 you've got this kind of area that is an Armenian 0:03:34.080 --> 0:03:40.400 majority region where the surrounding Azeri people argue that it 0:03:40.480 --> 0:03:43.720 is their land, their territory, that they should be allowed 0:03:43.760 --> 0:03:45.360 to take it. And there have been a series of 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:47.960 wars that have been fighting that have been going on 0:03:48.200 --> 0:03:50.960 over this area since the fall of the Soviet Union. 0:03:51.040 --> 0:03:53.880 And now as we are talking right now, Joe, you 0:03:53.960 --> 0:03:58.520 and I, the Azari military has just launched a new 0:03:58.560 --> 0:04:01.760 invasion with the prezum goal with the stated goal really 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:07.240 of retaking this entire region and potentially the goal of 0:04:07.560 --> 0:04:11.600 engaging the Armenian military in a wider formal way. Right, 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:14.680 that's at least the way the Azaris have discussed it. 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:17.680 The Armenian military, the Armenian government has said like, this 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:22.240 is not you know, Artsak is not Armenia. This is 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:25.120 not like our troops and stuff on the ground here. 0:04:25.960 --> 0:04:28.400 But the Azaris have basically just said, like, we are 0:04:28.440 --> 0:04:31.000 disabling Armenian military equipment. 0:04:31.120 --> 0:04:34.160 Yeah, it's it's you know, it goes back to December 0:04:34.160 --> 0:04:36.920 of last year. I mean, obviously this goes back even 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:39.800 before then. But if you start talking about, you know, history, 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:44.520 people's eyes are going to glaze over. Yeah, this the 0:04:44.720 --> 0:04:48.040 the war that was fought in twenty twenty obviously Azerbaijan one. 0:04:48.480 --> 0:04:52.960 And ever since then, Carlok or Artsak has been cut 0:04:53.000 --> 0:04:56.000 off from the Republic of Armenia through this area called 0:04:56.040 --> 0:05:00.840 the Lashing Corridor. And yeah, according to the treaty it 0:05:00.880 --> 0:05:03.120 was supposed to be maintained by Russian peacekeepers, but it 0:05:03.160 --> 0:05:07.800 never was, and specifically, since December of twenty twenty two, 0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:11.800 Karbak has been completely cut off by the Azarian Russian 0:05:11.800 --> 0:05:15.920 military and is effectively being starved out. So it's been, 0:05:16.040 --> 0:05:19.159 you know, quite a long time, and we knew, like 0:05:19.240 --> 0:05:22.120 everybody knew the war was going to come again, but 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:23.600 we kind of assumed it was gonna be in like 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:26.360 twenty twenty five when the Russians are mandated to leave, 0:05:27.640 --> 0:05:30.800 but sort yesterday, you know, it already yesterday. 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:34.080 It seems like, I think it like the azeris invaded 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:38.240 right after about twenty three tons something like that of 0:05:39.360 --> 0:05:44.040 essentially like bread was brought into like across the latchin corridor, 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:47.440 right like so literally like this, yeah, exactly, yeah, this 0:05:47.520 --> 0:05:50.960 tiny amount of food makes it into this starving populace 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:52.960 and then the next day invasion starts. 0:05:54.080 --> 0:05:57.080 Since December, they've done as much as they possibly could 0:05:57.120 --> 0:05:59.560 to turn Karbak into what is effectively an open air 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:05.160 concert camp and the military operation. Now, what it. 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:09.320 Is it to me is it's a. 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:13.560 Continuation of the twenty twenty war because they couldn't conquer 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:16.680 Sepanicrits in twenty twenty, which is the capital of Karabak, 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:23.240 due to external pressures as well as military capacity. Because 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:27.600 during twenty twenty, the Republic of Armenia, despite not legally 0:06:28.040 --> 0:06:33.599 directly fighting the war was of course helping Karabak with volunteers, soldiers, 0:06:33.680 --> 0:06:38.920 military supplies, everything. Sure this time they can't. It's completely 0:06:39.000 --> 0:06:41.520 cut off, and that this is not a war of 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:47.039 any kind of near peer powers. The local Karabak defense force, 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:50.440 called the Artsak Defense Army, is a self defense group. 0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:53.960 They have some heavy equipment, but the vast majority of 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:57.120 it was destroyed twenty twenty. So this is, you know, 0:06:57.200 --> 0:07:00.000 effectively like a local gun club trying to fight. 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:03.040 Yeah, this army, this is more or less a militia 0:07:03.120 --> 0:07:05.120 going up against I mean, like the Azaris. One of 0:07:05.120 --> 0:07:10.240 their major suppliers of arms is Israel, Israel and Turkey. Yeah, yeah, Russia, Russia, 0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:14.680 Russia as well too. Yeah, and Russia is selling obviously 0:07:14.760 --> 0:07:15.920 to our media as well. 0:07:16.720 --> 0:07:19.680 They actually aren't that we've we've found out I believe 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:24.120 last year. The government isn't the best at transparency, I 0:07:24.160 --> 0:07:27.520 feel like is the best way to word that. And 0:07:28.160 --> 0:07:31.600 we have been paying Russia for weapons since twenty twenty. 0:07:31.600 --> 0:07:34.160 They have not delivered a single bullet since the war. 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:38.360 Sorry I should have said Armenia is paying Russia for weapons. 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:43.200 Yeah, yeah, we're being fucked by Russia. But yeah, it's 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:46.640 as far as the state of Asari goals are, they're 0:07:46.800 --> 0:07:49.520 they're very different. In twenty twenty, when the war ended, 0:07:49.520 --> 0:07:51.280 they could frame it as a victory because they took 0:07:51.320 --> 0:07:54.760 over all these areas that they lost during the first war. 0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:57.680 Months about an area where about one hundred and twenty 0:07:57.680 --> 0:08:01.119 thousand people live in Stepanikert and the general outskirts there. 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:05.480 But this time the messaging is much different. It is, 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:09.720 you know, the government must collapse. You know, they only 0:08:09.880 --> 0:08:12.640 going tod like this is going quote unquote until the end, 0:08:13.120 --> 0:08:15.960 until they see a white flag from stepanic Cart. So 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:20.000 this is because now if they don't do that, they 0:08:20.040 --> 0:08:25.040 can't spin it as a victory, right right, And since December, 0:08:25.160 --> 0:08:30.720 the Lashing corridor has been shut for everybody. People couldn't leave, 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:34.120 people who live in Karbak, who are in Armenia for 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:37.760 like school or whatever, couldn't go back. And now suddenly 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:41.920 yesterday when the war started again, they are saying there's 0:08:41.960 --> 0:08:46.600 a humanitarian corridor through the through Lachen. So the goals 0:08:46.600 --> 0:08:49.240 are very very clear here and we know from their 0:08:49.320 --> 0:08:54.679 conduct in twenty twenty government propaganda, just the general attitude 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:58.559 of the Azari government towards Armenians, which is they don't 0:08:58.840 --> 0:09:02.280 they can't exist here, like this is a liquidation of 0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:04.520 the open air concentration camp that they've created. 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:19.600 So, I mean, Joe, first off, I guess what I 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:23.400 want to ask is, like, what what is it like 0:09:23.480 --> 0:09:26.640 in Yerevan right now? Because you know you are you 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:30.800 are not far from from where the fighting is continuing 0:09:30.840 --> 0:09:33.520 at the moment, but obviously you are. Armenia is not 0:09:34.200 --> 0:09:37.240 technically involved at this point, right Like, that's at least 0:09:37.280 --> 0:09:40.080 according to the claims of the Armenian government. These aeries 0:09:40.600 --> 0:09:44.360 alleged that they are striking Armenian military targets right now. 0:09:45.080 --> 0:09:46.560 What is it like in Yerevan right now? 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:49.760 I think everybody is. I mean, you can see it 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:52.920 on everybody's faces, like they just they want information, They 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:55.040 want to know what's going to happen next. There's a 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:58.880 lot of protests yesterday and into the night because the 0:09:58.880 --> 0:10:01.080 Prime Minister came out and said, like, you know, we're 0:10:01.120 --> 0:10:04.840 not going to get involved, and he's not exactly very popular, 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:07.840 despite the fact he kind of is our best option 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:12.480 at the moment, So there's a lot of you know, 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:17.200 rightful anger towards him, towards Russia towards the EU. You know, 0:10:17.280 --> 0:10:20.199 you name it. Everybody's mad at everybody. So there was 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:24.920 different protests yesterday. There was you know, fuck Russia protest. 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:27.960 There was fuck Nikol Pashnian, who's our prime minister protest. 0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:31.120 There was a combination of the two protests. They all 0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:33.440 kind of met in the middle. There was some fighting 0:10:33.480 --> 0:10:36.520 with the police. I heard reports that someone quite a 0:10:36.559 --> 0:10:39.719 few people tried to break into government buildings. That all 0:10:39.760 --> 0:10:42.360 seemed to have cooled off by that because I went 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:44.719 down to the area where there was protesting and I 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:48.280 didn't see any of that, but it seemed to have 0:10:48.320 --> 0:10:50.640 also started up again after I left. 0:10:51.520 --> 0:10:52.480 But again, it's. 0:10:52.480 --> 0:10:55.959 Only day one. People's anger is only going to get 0:10:56.000 --> 0:11:01.160 worse as a situation in Karabak gets worse. Yeah, you know, 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:04.600 the fall of Karabak and Stapana karat If, And when 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:06.920 that occurs, I have a hard time believing that the 0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:07.959 current government here in. 0:11:07.960 --> 0:11:08.880 Armenia will survive. 0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:15.240 They'll either resign before stouts, you know, an unfortunate third 0:11:15.280 --> 0:11:20.120 option might happen, especially with the messaging coming from Russia 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:23.480 where they're blaming Armenia and specifically the Prime Minister for 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:27.600 all of this. Because since September of last year, Armenia 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:32.760 has been doing decent diplomacy in turning towards the West. 0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:36.680 There's American soldiers in the Republic of Armenia right now 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:41.720 for training. We've sent supplies to Ukraine. We've all but 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:45.839 left the CSTO, which is like Russia's shitty version of NATO. 0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:52.120 Yeah, so this is not very functional, right. 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:54.440 Like yeah, yeah, I mean this is a fact. I mean, 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:59.480 this is a green lit punitive expedition on Russia's behalf effect. 0:11:59.640 --> 0:12:02.920 Yeah, and this is you know a couple of things. 0:12:02.960 --> 0:12:06.800 So like obviously the way in which the paper on 0:12:06.920 --> 0:12:11.240 paper alliances here kind of like chart out is not 0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:15.600 friendly to the sort of like sound bite media of 0:12:15.880 --> 0:12:19.920 our day, right because Armenia on paper, Armenia's like big 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:23.120 supporter has been Russia recently, right. 0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:27.920 As well as Azerbaijan, like as well, before Russia invaded Ukraine, 0:12:28.000 --> 0:12:32.040 they like cemented an alliance. But you know, because Azerbaijan 0:12:32.120 --> 0:12:35.080 has been very overt, I guess you could say, and 0:12:35.120 --> 0:12:38.000 their support for Ukraine, giving them money and you know, 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:42.480 supplies here and they're non military supplies but humanitarian supplies. Yeah, 0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:47.240 this gets spun in the brain dead infosphere as it 0:12:47.320 --> 0:12:51.160 being like another Russian ally, that being Armenia is being invaded, 0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:55.920 or you know, people equate Klara Bak to Crimea and 0:12:56.240 --> 0:13:02.800 Ukraine's war goals, and since Azerbaijan is a pr ally 0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:06.640 of Ukraine and supplying the E with gas and supplying 0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:09.520 E with Russian gas as well, they gets spun as 0:13:09.600 --> 0:13:13.920 like people are cheering for Azerbaijan, which is is absolutely 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:15.800 baffling to me. Like it I wish I could say 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:18.760 I'm confused or surprised, but like when you treat war 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:20.480 like it's a team sport you want to play on 0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:23.200 your favorite football jersey or whatever. Yeah, this is how 0:13:23.240 --> 0:13:30.760 it goes. When you know, Karabak declared independence from Azerbaijan 0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:35.640 during that the Azeri Soviet Socialist Republic when that was 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:39.079 legal to do. And the state that they have created 0:13:39.600 --> 0:13:44.040 is one of the most free in the region, whereas Azerbaijan, 0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:47.800 according to like the Freedom Index, is one point above 0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:51.880 the Taliban controlled Afghan state at the moment. Yeah, so 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.120 like this this is not a play. This is not 0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:56.800 like a liberation. A dictator cannot be a liberator. 0:13:57.160 --> 0:13:59.720 No, and a lot of what is happening and why 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:03.160 a zerbra Jan is engaging in aggression right now is 0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:05.360 due to what's been happening to like the price of 0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.120 oil and like what that's done to the Azari economy. Right, 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:11.520 Like this is a like I mean, it's it's it's 0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:15.240 a pretty standard page in the the authoritarian playbook, right 0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:16.199 of course. 0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:19.240 I mean they're a classic fascist dictatorship and so far 0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:22.440 as you know, every problem in the state that they have, 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:25.280 of which they have many, because it's effectively a kleptocracy 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:29.680 built around a Petro Petro dictatorship, is caused by Armenians. 0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:34.720 They're you know, every single anti Asari piece that gets 0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:37.320 published in any media, and you can use the term 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:41.160 anti Asari to mean like literally anything is funded by 0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:44.480 the like the Armenian lobbying group, which I mean any 0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:49.320 Jewish conspiracy theory that we all know and hear about constantly, 0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:52.600 and Azuerbaijan. You just replace Jewish people with Armenians, and 0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:55.360 it's a it's functionally the same thing. So you know, 0:14:55.440 --> 0:15:00.200 we're this global superpower with our tendrils and everything thing, 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:03.360 but also we're weak and pitiful and need to be destroyed. 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:06.840 It's it's same kind of messaging that we're used to 0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:11.240 hearing for like classic fascist propaganda, and you know that 0:15:11.680 --> 0:15:14.520 as far as like why they're doing it now is 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:20.119 because they've so ensconced themselves in the European good graces 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:22.960 and over the last little bit they know nobody could 0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:26.000 nobody's going to stop them. The EU literally can't, and 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:29.840 the United States, I mean, they're an outside player when 0:15:29.840 --> 0:15:33.680 it comes to European politics, at least internal politics, and 0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:37.880 they are only loosely connected to Azerbaijehan. They do some 0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:42.080 military funding, but it's mostly to do with's like these 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:46.040 weird ghosts of the early global War on Terror where 0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:49.840 they're looking for friendly Muslim powers that would act as 0:15:49.880 --> 0:15:54.360 counter terror forces. But the Azerbaijan secular this war has 0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:57.560 nothing to do with us being Christian or them being Muslim. Yea, 0:15:58.040 --> 0:16:00.680 though it does tend to be free frame that way 0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:02.840 by the worst people imaginable. 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:08.560 Yeah, it's slots conveniently for a lot of people into 0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:12.000 those But like this is I mean, again as I tried, 0:16:12.120 --> 0:16:13.760 and you know, this is what we're kind of like 0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:16.880 throwing this together in media res but like this is 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:19.880 we're talking about, like this is the result of a 0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:24.120 very long period of conflict and movement of peoples in 0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:27.760 a region where they have been for thousands and thousands 0:16:27.760 --> 0:16:30.880 of years, right, Like that's like, it's not. 0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:34.640 I would say the current conflict is mostly rooted in 0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:37.880 about the last thirty thirty five years, I mean the 0:16:37.920 --> 0:16:40.920 ancient the ancient history gets thrown around a lot by 0:16:41.000 --> 0:16:45.200 like propagandists, But this is a direct result of the 0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:47.920 Soviet Union's policies. It has nothing to do with like, 0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:50.400 you know, the thirteen hundreds. 0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:54.080 Would you take it back though, to like like World 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:56.520 War One? Right where you've got You've got this like 0:16:56.680 --> 0:17:00.320 very brief period where like Azerbaijan and Armenia and Georgia 0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:04.000 all attempt to have this like almost little like Caucasus 0:17:04.080 --> 0:17:07.000 you win, or EU of their own right, and then 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:09.720 they all get like gobbled up, you know, over the 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:12.400 course of the end of the war by by by 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:16.679 Turkey and then by Russia. Like it's this uh, like 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:18.840 that's kind of where it all results from. Right, That's 0:17:18.840 --> 0:17:20.359 at least that's my understanding of it. 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:21.159 Uh. 0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:22.960 If you want to go back that far, it has 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:28.320 more of a result of early Soviet policy and specifically 0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:30.879 Joseph Stalin before he took over the Soviet Union. He 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:35.840 was ahead of like the the Office of like minorities. Effectively, 0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:38.520 Yeah he he's a Georgian. 0:17:39.240 --> 0:17:41.200 Yeah he's it's so is Barria. 0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:48.600 And he he redrew the borders to include what is 0:17:48.640 --> 0:17:52.400 today Karabak within the borders of what effectively would become 0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:57.000 the Azaria Soviet Socialist Republic. And during the entire period 0:17:57.000 --> 0:17:58.879 of the Soviet Union, which you know, a lot of 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:02.200 people like to frame as the there's no problems in 0:18:02.280 --> 0:18:06.520 the Soviet Union control these areas, which is magical thinking. 0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:09.000 There were protests by the Armenian populace, right. 0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:12.679 There was a lot of protests during the eighties. You 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:17.920 have what's called the Karabak movement wanted either a Karabak 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:20.639 to become its own Soviet Socialist Republic or b to 0:18:20.720 --> 0:18:24.399 be given to the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic and away 0:18:24.440 --> 0:18:27.800 from these areas. And failing that, they declared independence, which 0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:33.439 was within their rights under the Soviet constitution, which did exist, 0:18:33.520 --> 0:18:36.159 I mean, it was largely fluid and completely ignored as 0:18:36.200 --> 0:18:39.640 we see today, and that's what that triggered a lot 0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:44.560 of different programs between Azaris against the Armenian population. Within 0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:48.439 Azerbaijan and Armenians did the same thing here as well, 0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:51.560 but that started the First War, which ended with Armenia 0:18:51.600 --> 0:18:57.359 winning and Artsak becoming a de facto independent republic not 0:18:57.440 --> 0:18:59.760 recognized by anybody to include Armenia. 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.640 And it's I mean, it becomes at that point kind 0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:06.199 of one of a series of sort of little frozen wars. 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:10.639 During this kind of like early nineties period where the 0:19:10.760 --> 0:19:14.159 US was there was this there was some belief that 0:19:14.200 --> 0:19:17.520 the US would act if like these conflicts got out 0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:21.639 of hand. That was like often proved wrong, right, Like 0:19:21.840 --> 0:19:26.479 the best comparison is effectively Kosovo. The only difference is 0:19:26.520 --> 0:19:31.200 that because of geopolitics, you're getting involved in this war, 0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:35.439 whether it be in the nineties, in twenty twenty or today, 0:19:36.560 --> 0:19:42.560 is it's not geopolitically advantageous, Like telling Azerbaijan to go 0:19:42.600 --> 0:19:49.440 fuck themselves by supporting art soccer Armenians doesn't help anybody geopolitically. 0:19:50.640 --> 0:19:55.040 If it was Russia invading US, it would be raining 0:19:55.080 --> 0:19:59.080 weapons from the West, But geopolitically doesn't benefit anybody to 0:19:59.119 --> 0:20:02.199 support us. And you know, like there's this concept of 0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:05.640 like ethics and morals from superpowers, whether it be you know, 0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:10.159 the bastion of democracy in the United States, or this 0:20:10.280 --> 0:20:12.840 concept of European ethics and morals in the EU, Like, 0:20:12.880 --> 0:20:16.399 that's all propaganda of aprior where it's not real. If 0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:20.280 your country is being helped by any of these countries, 0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:24.640 it's because it benefits the countries that are helping you geopolitically. 0:20:24.800 --> 0:20:27.639 It's not because of they they support whatever it is 0:20:27.640 --> 0:20:31.840 that you're doing, you know that, And because the Republic 0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:34.800 of Armenia itself is kind of in the situation as well. 0:20:35.119 --> 0:20:37.840 But the people of art SoC are certainly in this situation. 0:20:39.359 --> 0:20:45.960 And so like right now, I mean honestly, like what 0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:50.520 what is there to do? But watch right like, is 0:20:50.560 --> 0:20:52.600 there is there? Do you have any kind of like 0:20:52.960 --> 0:20:56.560 hope for sort of positive productive action at this point 0:20:56.680 --> 0:20:59.400 or are we kind of stuck in this We're going 0:20:59.440 --> 0:21:04.280 to see what the next chapter of this conflict looks like, 0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:06.200 you know, as it kind of rolls out here. 0:21:07.040 --> 0:21:11.359 Well, there's two options, really stop it through military force 0:21:12.119 --> 0:21:16.200 or let the largest genocide of the twenty first century 0:21:16.359 --> 0:21:23.199 go unimpeded. Right because the reason why our Prime Minister 0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:25.760 said that the Republic of Armenia is not going to 0:21:25.760 --> 0:21:28.639 get involved is because it literally cannot. You know, we 0:21:28.760 --> 0:21:31.879 have Turkey on one border that will almost certainly be 0:21:32.000 --> 0:21:36.879 involved if we do. These areas also have guns pointed 0:21:36.920 --> 0:21:40.439 at our southern border, which they have said for years 0:21:40.480 --> 0:21:44.760 now they want to conquer. The Armenian military is not 0:21:44.920 --> 0:21:48.159 a superpower by any stretch of the imagination, and since 0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:51.760 we are not connected to Artsock in any feasible way, 0:21:52.240 --> 0:21:55.080 it would require a massive counter offensive to just relieve 0:21:55.119 --> 0:21:58.320 Stapanak Heart from the current siege. Right There's a reason 0:21:58.320 --> 0:22:02.680 why it didn't happen when they're being starved. So Armenia 0:22:02.760 --> 0:22:07.320 lacks the ability to stop this. However, there's multiple countries 0:22:07.400 --> 0:22:11.240 in the world, mostly France in the United States, that 0:22:11.320 --> 0:22:13.800 could end this in five seconds if they truly wanted to. 0:22:13.960 --> 0:22:17.000 Yeah, you mentioned at the start that there are US 0:22:17.119 --> 0:22:20.720 troops who are in Armenia right now, and I'm my 0:22:20.800 --> 0:22:24.240 thoughts are drawn back to in twenty nineteen when Turkey 0:22:24.480 --> 0:22:27.720 carried out an expanded invasion of some of the regions 0:22:27.760 --> 0:22:31.560 in northeast Syria that composed Rejava, and you know US 0:22:31.640 --> 0:22:35.000 peacekeepers pulled out previous to that. Now, the US troops 0:22:35.040 --> 0:22:36.840 who were in Armenia were training that were not there 0:22:36.880 --> 0:22:38.520 as peacekeepers. 0:22:37.880 --> 0:22:40.760 But right have they have no mandate to do anything, 0:22:40.800 --> 0:22:42.960 and there's only like two hundred of them from some 0:22:43.119 --> 0:22:45.040 national Guard unit. It's not like it's a you know, 0:22:45.080 --> 0:22:49.040 a brigade combat team, and pressure is whatever you want 0:22:49.080 --> 0:22:51.040 to call them are not simply not going to happen. 0:22:51.320 --> 0:22:54.120 The European Union is not going to sanction Azerbaijan. They 0:22:54.160 --> 0:22:57.120 rely on their oil and Azerbaijan has only become more 0:22:57.160 --> 0:23:02.800 powerful in this petro diplomacy since Russia invaded Ukraine. The 0:23:02.920 --> 0:23:08.600 United States has no functional sanctioning powers over Azerbaijan that 0:23:08.600 --> 0:23:11.359 could really affect them. And not to mention, as we've 0:23:11.400 --> 0:23:13.880 seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine is sanctions don't 0:23:13.880 --> 0:23:14.760 stop wars. 0:23:15.200 --> 0:23:17.960 Yeah, now, I mean they never had. Like again, this 0:23:18.080 --> 0:23:20.320 is something that left is supposed to know right after, 0:23:20.480 --> 0:23:23.119 like what happened with Iraq and the nineties, but like 0:23:23.200 --> 0:23:26.680 they don't, they don't do anything Like no, of course. 0:23:27.000 --> 0:23:29.000 Like if the only thing that stops a genocide is 0:23:29.080 --> 0:23:32.520 military force, and there's never been a genocide that has 0:23:32.600 --> 0:23:36.200 not ended from military from one actor or another. 0:23:36.480 --> 0:23:38.239 I might push even a little bit to say that 0:23:38.359 --> 0:23:40.680 like one thing that in this case I think could 0:23:40.760 --> 0:23:46.359 potentially at least reduce the risk of certain kinds of genocide. 0:23:46.440 --> 0:23:50.280 Is like keeping US troops in the area, not even 0:23:50.320 --> 0:23:52.680 as like a viable combat force, but as a like 0:23:52.720 --> 0:23:54.840 all right, a zebra jen if you if you are 0:23:54.920 --> 0:23:59.280 going to like disrupt the territorial integrity of the actual 0:23:59.359 --> 0:24:03.199 Armenian state, then you know, we've got people who are 0:24:03.240 --> 0:24:06.119 in country and and so you'll have to you'll have 0:24:06.160 --> 0:24:06.960 to kill them, you know. 0:24:07.240 --> 0:24:09.639 That's That's somethings that probable have been arguing for a 0:24:09.640 --> 0:24:14.040 long time now, not necessarily Americans exactly, but some kind 0:24:14.080 --> 0:24:17.520 of international peacekeeping mission, because we all knew that what 0:24:17.680 --> 0:24:21.680 Russia was doing, like this war benefits them as the 0:24:22.119 --> 0:24:26.160 previous instability in the region benefits them because it allows 0:24:26.200 --> 0:24:29.280 them to have their hooks into Armenia. Which is why 0:24:29.560 --> 0:24:32.600 we're kind of worried of what happens next here because 0:24:33.000 --> 0:24:37.400