Speaker 1: Hey, everybody, Robert Evans here. The episode you're about to
Speaker 1: hear was recorded late last night at like two in
Speaker 1: the morning, due to the time difference between me and Joe,
Speaker 1: who is based in Armenia. As you may have heard,
Speaker 1: Azerbijan launched another attack on the independent Armenian majority region
Speaker 1: of Artsak, which is in territory that Azerbaijan claims. Since
Speaker 1: we recorded this a couple hours after the Artzok defense
Speaker 1: forces have surrendered, there's currently negotiations and something that's being
Speaker 1: called a ceasefire, although there continue to be reports of
Speaker 1: shelling and other violent acts by the Azeri military. It's
Speaker 1: kind of unclear what is going to happen. Tens of
Speaker 1: thousands of frightened Armenians have crowded the airport out of Artzok.
Speaker 1: Pictures are pretty stunning and sobering, out of fears that
Speaker 1: a genocide will be instituted against the Armenian populace in
Speaker 1: that area. The episode You're about to hear is Joe
Speaker 1: and I kind of talking earlier in the invasion, pretty
Speaker 1: soon after it happened, going over some of the history,
Speaker 1: what's going on now, fears for the future, so I
Speaker 1: thought it was still valuable stuff, but I wanted to
Speaker 1: let you know the situation has advanced since we recorded this,
Speaker 1: as is often the case when you're talking about, you know,
Speaker 1: unfolding events. So thank you. Hey, everyone, welcome to It
Speaker 1: could happen here, a podcast about it happening here, And
Speaker 1: unfortunately for our guest today it is again this is
Speaker 1: not the first time that it has been happening where
Speaker 1: this person happens to live. Joe Kasabian, Joe, Hey, how
Speaker 1: you doing, Buddy?
Speaker 2: Hey, Robert, it's I would like to say, it's good
Speaker 2: to be back. But you know this tends to happen
Speaker 2: a lot.
Speaker 1: We did you know in between the first time you
Speaker 1: were or the last time you were on this show
Speaker 1: and now you know, we had a surprise meeting in
Speaker 1: Dublin that was a lovely time.
Speaker 2: That is true.
Speaker 1: That is true. Yeah, And now Joe, you uh, you
Speaker 1: are a podcaster, a genocide expert and academic studying that
Speaker 1: and also you know, the host of the Lions Led
Speaker 1: by Donkeys podcast, which is a lovely podcast. And you
Speaker 1: are based out of Yerevan, which is the capital of Armenia,
Speaker 1: which is a country that is not yet being invaded
Speaker 1: but is also in in another way, is being invaded
Speaker 1: right now, right, Like it's a it's a complicated situation, basically,
Speaker 1: the gist of it is, folks, if you're if you're
Speaker 1: kind of tuning in, there is a there are a
Speaker 1: number of different like little republics in in the Caucasus region,
Speaker 1: and one of the like over the course of the
Speaker 1: last like I don't know, a couple of thousand years,
Speaker 1: there have been a lot of Armenian people in this
Speaker 1: area that we call the Caucuses, right, and you know,
Speaker 1: you have your you know, a couple of thousand years
Speaker 1: of history, you know, around the eleventh century, you get,
Speaker 1: you know, some claims start being made to this area
Speaker 1: in what is now called Karbak Artsak, And yeah, now
Speaker 1: you've got this kind of area that is an Armenian
Speaker 1: majority region where the surrounding Azeri people argue that it
Speaker 1: is their land, their territory, that they should be allowed
Speaker 1: to take it. And there have been a series of
Speaker 1: wars that have been fighting that have been going on
Speaker 1: over this area since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Speaker 1: And now as we are talking right now, Joe, you
Speaker 1: and I, the Azari military has just launched a new
Speaker 1: invasion with the prezum goal with the stated goal really
Speaker 1: of retaking this entire region and potentially the goal of
Speaker 1: engaging the Armenian military in a wider formal way. Right,
Speaker 1: that's at least the way the Azaris have discussed it.
Speaker 1: The Armenian military, the Armenian government has said like, this
Speaker 1: is not you know, Artsak is not Armenia. This is
Speaker 1: not like our troops and stuff on the ground here.
Speaker 1: But the Azaris have basically just said, like, we are
Speaker 1: disabling Armenian military equipment.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's you know, it goes back to December
Speaker 2: of last year. I mean, obviously this goes back even
Speaker 2: before then. But if you start talking about, you know, history,
Speaker 2: people's eyes are going to glaze over. Yeah, this the
Speaker 2: the war that was fought in twenty twenty obviously Azerbaijan one.
Speaker 2: And ever since then, Carlok or Artsak has been cut
Speaker 2: off from the Republic of Armenia through this area called
Speaker 2: the Lashing Corridor. And yeah, according to the treaty it
Speaker 2: was supposed to be maintained by Russian peacekeepers, but it
Speaker 2: never was, and specifically, since December of twenty twenty two,
Speaker 2: Karbak has been completely cut off by the Azarian Russian
Speaker 2: military and is effectively being starved out. So it's been,
Speaker 2: you know, quite a long time, and we knew, like
Speaker 2: everybody knew the war was going to come again, but
Speaker 2: we kind of assumed it was gonna be in like
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five when the Russians are mandated to leave,
Speaker 2: but sort yesterday, you know, it already yesterday.
Speaker 1: It seems like, I think it like the azeris invaded
Speaker 1: right after about twenty three tons something like that of
Speaker 1: essentially like bread was brought into like across the latchin corridor,
Speaker 1: right like so literally like this, yeah, exactly, yeah, this
Speaker 1: tiny amount of food makes it into this starving populace
Speaker 1: and then the next day invasion starts.
Speaker 2: Since December, they've done as much as they possibly could
Speaker 2: to turn Karbak into what is effectively an open air
Speaker 2: concert camp and the military operation. Now, what it.
Speaker 1: Is it to me is it's a.
Speaker 2: Continuation of the twenty twenty war because they couldn't conquer
Speaker 2: Sepanicrits in twenty twenty, which is the capital of Karabak,
Speaker 2: due to external pressures as well as military capacity. Because
Speaker 2: during twenty twenty, the Republic of Armenia, despite not legally
Speaker 2: directly fighting the war was of course helping Karabak with volunteers, soldiers,
Speaker 2: military supplies, everything. Sure this time they can't. It's completely
Speaker 2: cut off, and that this is not a war of
Speaker 2: any kind of near peer powers. The local Karabak defense force,
Speaker 2: called the Artsak Defense Army, is a self defense group.
Speaker 2: They have some heavy equipment, but the vast majority of
Speaker 2: it was destroyed twenty twenty. So this is, you know,
Speaker 2: effectively like a local gun club trying to fight.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this army, this is more or less a militia
Speaker 1: going up against I mean, like the Azaris. One of
Speaker 1: their major suppliers of arms is Israel, Israel and Turkey. Yeah, yeah, Russia, Russia,
Speaker 1: Russia as well too. Yeah, and Russia is selling obviously
Speaker 1: to our media as well.
Speaker 2: They actually aren't that we've we've found out I believe
Speaker 2: last year. The government isn't the best at transparency, I
Speaker 2: feel like is the best way to word that. And
Speaker 2: we have been paying Russia for weapons since twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: They have not delivered a single bullet since the war.
Speaker 1: Sorry I should have said Armenia is paying Russia for weapons.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, we're being fucked by Russia. But yeah, it's
Speaker 2: as far as the state of Asari goals are, they're
Speaker 2: they're very different. In twenty twenty, when the war ended,
Speaker 2: they could frame it as a victory because they took
Speaker 2: over all these areas that they lost during the first war.
Speaker 2: Months about an area where about one hundred and twenty
Speaker 2: thousand people live in Stepanikert and the general outskirts there.
Speaker 2: But this time the messaging is much different. It is,
Speaker 2: you know, the government must collapse. You know, they only
Speaker 2: going tod like this is going quote unquote until the end,
Speaker 2: until they see a white flag from stepanic Cart. So
Speaker 2: this is because now if they don't do that, they
Speaker 2: can't spin it as a victory, right right, And since December,
Speaker 2: the Lashing corridor has been shut for everybody. People couldn't leave,
Speaker 2: people who live in Karbak, who are in Armenia for
Speaker 2: like school or whatever, couldn't go back. And now suddenly
Speaker 2: yesterday when the war started again, they are saying there's
Speaker 2: a humanitarian corridor through the through Lachen. So the goals
Speaker 2: are very very clear here and we know from their
Speaker 2: conduct in twenty twenty government propaganda, just the general attitude
Speaker 2: of the Azari government towards Armenians, which is they don't
Speaker 2: they can't exist here, like this is a liquidation of
Speaker 2: the open air concentration camp that they've created.
Speaker 1: So, I mean, Joe, first off, I guess what I
Speaker 1: want to ask is, like, what what is it like
Speaker 1: in Yerevan right now? Because you know you are you
Speaker 1: are not far from from where the fighting is continuing
Speaker 1: at the moment, but obviously you are. Armenia is not
Speaker 1: technically involved at this point, right Like, that's at least
Speaker 1: according to the claims of the Armenian government. These aeries
Speaker 1: alleged that they are striking Armenian military targets right now.
Speaker 1: What is it like in Yerevan right now?
Speaker 2: I think everybody is. I mean, you can see it
Speaker 2: on everybody's faces, like they just they want information, They
Speaker 2: want to know what's going to happen next. There's a
Speaker 2: lot of protests yesterday and into the night because the
Speaker 2: Prime Minister came out and said, like, you know, we're
Speaker 2: not going to get involved, and he's not exactly very popular,
Speaker 2: despite the fact he kind of is our best option
Speaker 2: at the moment, So there's a lot of you know,
Speaker 2: rightful anger towards him, towards Russia towards the EU. You know,
Speaker 2: you name it. Everybody's mad at everybody. So there was
Speaker 2: different protests yesterday. There was you know, fuck Russia protest.
Speaker 2: There was fuck Nikol Pashnian, who's our prime minister protest.
Speaker 2: There was a combination of the two protests. They all
Speaker 2: kind of met in the middle. There was some fighting
Speaker 2: with the police. I heard reports that someone quite a
Speaker 2: few people tried to break into government buildings. That all
Speaker 2: seemed to have cooled off by that because I went
Speaker 2: down to the area where there was protesting and I
Speaker 2: didn't see any of that, but it seemed to have
Speaker 2: also started up again after I left.
Speaker 1: But again, it's.
Speaker 2: Only day one. People's anger is only going to get
Speaker 2: worse as a situation in Karabak gets worse. Yeah, you know,
Speaker 2: the fall of Karabak and Stapana karat If, And when
Speaker 2: that occurs, I have a hard time believing that the
Speaker 2: current government here in.
Speaker 1: Armenia will survive.
Speaker 2: They'll either resign before stouts, you know, an unfortunate third
Speaker 2: option might happen, especially with the messaging coming from Russia
Speaker 2: where they're blaming Armenia and specifically the Prime Minister for
Speaker 2: all of this. Because since September of last year, Armenia
Speaker 2: has been doing decent diplomacy in turning towards the West.
Speaker 2: There's American soldiers in the Republic of Armenia right now
Speaker 2: for training. We've sent supplies to Ukraine. We've all but
Speaker 2: left the CSTO, which is like Russia's shitty version of NATO.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so this is not very functional, right.
Speaker 2: Like yeah, yeah, I mean this is a fact. I mean,
Speaker 2: this is a green lit punitive expedition on Russia's behalf effect.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and this is you know a couple of things.
Speaker 1: So like obviously the way in which the paper on
Speaker 1: paper alliances here kind of like chart out is not
Speaker 1: friendly to the sort of like sound bite media of
Speaker 1: our day, right because Armenia on paper, Armenia's like big
Speaker 1: supporter has been Russia recently, right.
Speaker 2: As well as Azerbaijan, like as well, before Russia invaded Ukraine,
Speaker 2: they like cemented an alliance. But you know, because Azerbaijan
Speaker 2: has been very overt, I guess you could say, and
Speaker 2: their support for Ukraine, giving them money and you know,
Speaker 2: supplies here and they're non military supplies but humanitarian supplies. Yeah,
Speaker 2: this gets spun in the brain dead infosphere as it
Speaker 2: being like another Russian ally, that being Armenia is being invaded,
Speaker 2: or you know, people equate Klara Bak to Crimea and
Speaker 2: Ukraine's war goals, and since Azerbaijan is a pr ally
Speaker 2: of Ukraine and supplying the E with gas and supplying
Speaker 2: E with Russian gas as well, they gets spun as
Speaker 2: like people are cheering for Azerbaijan, which is is absolutely
Speaker 2: baffling to me. Like it I wish I could say
Speaker 2: I'm confused or surprised, but like when you treat war
Speaker 2: like it's a team sport you want to play on
Speaker 2: your favorite football jersey or whatever. Yeah, this is how
Speaker 2: it goes. When you know, Karabak declared independence from Azerbaijan
Speaker 2: during that the Azeri Soviet Socialist Republic when that was
Speaker 2: legal to do. And the state that they have created
Speaker 2: is one of the most free in the region, whereas Azerbaijan,
Speaker 2: according to like the Freedom Index, is one point above
Speaker 2: the Taliban controlled Afghan state at the moment. Yeah, so
Speaker 2: like this this is not a play. This is not
Speaker 2: like a liberation. A dictator cannot be a liberator.
Speaker 1: No, and a lot of what is happening and why
Speaker 1: a zerbra Jan is engaging in aggression right now is
Speaker 1: due to what's been happening to like the price of
Speaker 1: oil and like what that's done to the Azari economy. Right,
Speaker 1: Like this is a like I mean, it's it's it's
Speaker 1: a pretty standard page in the the authoritarian playbook, right
Speaker 1: of course.
Speaker 2: I mean they're a classic fascist dictatorship and so far
Speaker 2: as you know, every problem in the state that they have,
Speaker 2: of which they have many, because it's effectively a kleptocracy
Speaker 2: built around a Petro Petro dictatorship, is caused by Armenians.
Speaker 2: They're you know, every single anti Asari piece that gets
Speaker 2: published in any media, and you can use the term
Speaker 2: anti Asari to mean like literally anything is funded by
Speaker 2: the like the Armenian lobbying group, which I mean any
Speaker 2: Jewish conspiracy theory that we all know and hear about constantly,
Speaker 2: and Azuerbaijan. You just replace Jewish people with Armenians, and
Speaker 2: it's a it's functionally the same thing. So you know,
Speaker 2: we're this global superpower with our tendrils and everything thing,
Speaker 2: but also we're weak and pitiful and need to be destroyed.
Speaker 2: It's it's same kind of messaging that we're used to
Speaker 2: hearing for like classic fascist propaganda, and you know that
Speaker 2: as far as like why they're doing it now is
Speaker 2: because they've so ensconced themselves in the European good graces
Speaker 2: and over the last little bit they know nobody could
Speaker 2: nobody's going to stop them. The EU literally can't, and
Speaker 2: the United States, I mean, they're an outside player when
Speaker 2: it comes to European politics, at least internal politics, and
Speaker 2: they are only loosely connected to Azerbaijehan. They do some
Speaker 2: military funding, but it's mostly to do with's like these
Speaker 2: weird ghosts of the early global War on Terror where
Speaker 2: they're looking for friendly Muslim powers that would act as
Speaker 2: counter terror forces. But the Azerbaijan secular this war has
Speaker 2: nothing to do with us being Christian or them being Muslim. Yea,
Speaker 2: though it does tend to be free frame that way
Speaker 2: by the worst people imaginable.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's slots conveniently for a lot of people into
Speaker 1: those But like this is I mean, again as I tried,
Speaker 1: and you know, this is what we're kind of like
Speaker 1: throwing this together in media res but like this is
Speaker 1: we're talking about, like this is the result of a
Speaker 1: very long period of conflict and movement of peoples in
Speaker 1: a region where they have been for thousands and thousands
Speaker 1: of years, right, Like that's like, it's not.
Speaker 2: I would say the current conflict is mostly rooted in
Speaker 2: about the last thirty thirty five years, I mean the
Speaker 2: ancient the ancient history gets thrown around a lot by
Speaker 2: like propagandists, But this is a direct result of the
Speaker 2: Soviet Union's policies. It has nothing to do with like,
Speaker 2: you know, the thirteen hundreds.
Speaker 1: Would you take it back though, to like like World
Speaker 1: War One? Right where you've got You've got this like
Speaker 1: very brief period where like Azerbaijan and Armenia and Georgia
Speaker 1: all attempt to have this like almost little like Caucasus
Speaker 1: you win, or EU of their own right, and then
Speaker 1: they all get like gobbled up, you know, over the
Speaker 1: course of the end of the war by by by
Speaker 1: Turkey and then by Russia. Like it's this uh, like
Speaker 1: that's kind of where it all results from. Right, That's
Speaker 1: at least that's my understanding of it.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 2: If you want to go back that far, it has
Speaker 2: more of a result of early Soviet policy and specifically
Speaker 2: Joseph Stalin before he took over the Soviet Union. He
Speaker 2: was ahead of like the the Office of like minorities. Effectively,
Speaker 2: Yeah he he's a Georgian.
Speaker 1: Yeah he's it's so is Barria.
Speaker 2: And he he redrew the borders to include what is
Speaker 2: today Karabak within the borders of what effectively would become
Speaker 2: the Azaria Soviet Socialist Republic. And during the entire period
Speaker 2: of the Soviet Union, which you know, a lot of
Speaker 2: people like to frame as the there's no problems in
Speaker 2: the Soviet Union control these areas, which is magical thinking.
Speaker 1: There were protests by the Armenian populace, right.
Speaker 2: There was a lot of protests during the eighties. You
Speaker 2: have what's called the Karabak movement wanted either a Karabak
Speaker 2: to become its own Soviet Socialist Republic or b to
Speaker 2: be given to the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic and away
Speaker 2: from these areas. And failing that, they declared independence, which
Speaker 2: was within their rights under the Soviet constitution, which did exist,
Speaker 2: I mean, it was largely fluid and completely ignored as
Speaker 2: we see today, and that's what that triggered a lot
Speaker 2: of different programs between Azaris against the Armenian population. Within
Speaker 2: Azerbaijan and Armenians did the same thing here as well,
Speaker 2: but that started the First War, which ended with Armenia
Speaker 2: winning and Artsak becoming a de facto independent republic not
Speaker 2: recognized by anybody to include Armenia.
Speaker 1: And it's I mean, it becomes at that point kind
Speaker 1: of one of a series of sort of little frozen wars.
Speaker 1: During this kind of like early nineties period where the
Speaker 1: US was there was this there was some belief that
Speaker 1: the US would act if like these conflicts got out
Speaker 1: of hand. That was like often proved wrong, right, Like
Speaker 1: the best comparison is effectively Kosovo. The only difference is
Speaker 1: that because of geopolitics, you're getting involved in this war,
Speaker 1: whether it be in the nineties, in twenty twenty or today,
Speaker 1: is it's not geopolitically advantageous, Like telling Azerbaijan to go
Speaker 1: fuck themselves by supporting art soccer Armenians doesn't help anybody geopolitically.
Speaker 1: If it was Russia invading US, it would be raining
Speaker 1: weapons from the West, But geopolitically doesn't benefit anybody to
Speaker 1: support us. And you know, like there's this concept of
Speaker 1: like ethics and morals from superpowers, whether it be you know,
Speaker 1: the bastion of democracy in the United States, or this
Speaker 1: concept of European ethics and morals in the EU, Like,
Speaker 1: that's all propaganda of aprior where it's not real. If
Speaker 1: your country is being helped by any of these countries,
Speaker 1: it's because it benefits the countries that are helping you geopolitically.
Speaker 1: It's not because of they they support whatever it is
Speaker 1: that you're doing, you know that, And because the Republic
Speaker 1: of Armenia itself is kind of in the situation as well.
Speaker 1: But the people of art SoC are certainly in this situation.
Speaker 1: And so like right now, I mean honestly, like what
Speaker 1: what is there to do? But watch right like, is
Speaker 1: there is there? Do you have any kind of like
Speaker 1: hope for sort of positive productive action at this point
Speaker 1: or are we kind of stuck in this We're going
Speaker 1: to see what the next chapter of this conflict looks like,
Speaker 1: you know, as it kind of rolls out here.
Speaker 2: Well, there's two options, really stop it through military force
Speaker 2: or let the largest genocide of the twenty first century
Speaker 2: go unimpeded. Right because the reason why our Prime Minister
Speaker 2: said that the Republic of Armenia is not going to
Speaker 2: get involved is because it literally cannot. You know, we
Speaker 2: have Turkey on one border that will almost certainly be
Speaker 2: involved if we do. These areas also have guns pointed
Speaker 2: at our southern border, which they have said for years
Speaker 2: now they want to conquer. The Armenian military is not
Speaker 2: a superpower by any stretch of the imagination, and since
Speaker 2: we are not connected to Artsock in any feasible way,
Speaker 2: it would require a massive counter offensive to just relieve
Speaker 2: Stapanak Heart from the current siege. Right There's a reason
Speaker 2: why it didn't happen when they're being starved. So Armenia
Speaker 2: lacks the ability to stop this. However, there's multiple countries
Speaker 2: in the world, mostly France in the United States, that
Speaker 2: could end this in five seconds if they truly wanted to.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned at the start that there are US
Speaker 1: troops who are in Armenia right now, and I'm my
Speaker 1: thoughts are drawn back to in twenty nineteen when Turkey
Speaker 1: carried out an expanded invasion of some of the regions
Speaker 1: in northeast Syria that composed Rejava, and you know US
Speaker 1: peacekeepers pulled out previous to that. Now, the US troops
Speaker 1: who were in Armenia were training that were not there
Speaker 1: as peacekeepers.
Speaker 2: But right have they have no mandate to do anything,
Speaker 2: and there's only like two hundred of them from some
Speaker 2: national Guard unit. It's not like it's a you know,
Speaker 2: a brigade combat team, and pressure is whatever you want
Speaker 2: to call them are not simply not going to happen.
Speaker 2: The European Union is not going to sanction Azerbaijan. They
Speaker 2: rely on their oil and Azerbaijan has only become more
Speaker 2: powerful in this petro diplomacy since Russia invaded Ukraine. The
Speaker 2: United States has no functional sanctioning powers over Azerbaijan that
Speaker 2: could really affect them. And not to mention, as we've
Speaker 2: seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine is sanctions don't
Speaker 2: stop wars.
Speaker 1: Yeah, now, I mean they never had. Like again, this
Speaker 1: is something that left is supposed to know right after,
Speaker 1: like what happened with Iraq and the nineties, but like
Speaker 1: they don't, they don't do anything Like no, of course.
Speaker 2: Like if the only thing that stops a genocide is
Speaker 2: military force, and there's never been a genocide that has
Speaker 2: not ended from military from one actor or another.
Speaker 1: I might push even a little bit to say that
Speaker 1: like one thing that in this case I think could
Speaker 1: potentially at least reduce the risk of certain kinds of genocide.
Speaker 1: Is like keeping US troops in the area, not even
Speaker 1: as like a viable combat force, but as a like
Speaker 1: all right, a zebra jen if you if you are
Speaker 1: going to like disrupt the territorial integrity of the actual
Speaker 1: Armenian state, then you know, we've got people who are
Speaker 1: in country and and so you'll have to you'll have
Speaker 1: to kill them, you know.
Speaker 2: That's That's somethings that probable have been arguing for a
Speaker 2: long time now, not necessarily Americans exactly, but some kind
Speaker 2: of international peacekeeping mission, because we all knew that what
Speaker 2: Russia was doing, like this war benefits them as the
Speaker 2: previous instability in the region benefits them because it allows
Speaker 2: them to have their hooks into Armenia. Which is why
Speaker 2: we're kind of worried of what happens next here because
Speaker 2: if Azerbaijean does complete the conquest of stapanic Herit, which
Speaker 2: unless someone gets involved, they will, they need to be
Speaker 2: like I need to be practical about these things, and
Speaker 2: once that happens, Russia won't have the sort of damicles
Speaker 2: hanging over the Republic of Armenia's head anymore. So it
Speaker 2: does make it does make us wonder like, and everybody
Speaker 2: is very very stupid if they I think Azerbaijan stops
Speaker 2: with Artsock right that in September of last year when
Speaker 2: I was on your show, they were invading the Republic
Speaker 2: of Armenia. They were not invading Karabaker Arts. They were
Speaker 2: invading the Republic of Armenia. And their stated goals have
Speaker 2: not changed. The only thing that would happen is that
Speaker 2: this thorn in their side over the last thirty years
Speaker 2: would not be there anymore. They would have no impediments
Speaker 2: at all within what is considered their own borders. They
Speaker 2: could focus everything on the Republic of Armenia. So people
Speaker 2: who believe that this ends in Stapanic heart like, You'll
Speaker 2: only have to go back to this time last year
Speaker 2: to see that is not the case. The only thing
Speaker 2: that's going to happen is maybe they'll take a little
Speaker 2: bit of time. The war is coming to Armenia. This
Speaker 2: massacre will come across our borders. It's only a matter
Speaker 2: of is it one year, two years, three years that
Speaker 2: that's the only thing. So without some kind of immediate intervention,
Speaker 2: this slaughter will continue until they are defeated that you
Speaker 2: don't negotiate with people who want to murder you. It's impossible, No,
Speaker 2: you can't. And it's it's also this is a very
Speaker 2: dangerous situation in part because like the reason why Armenia
Speaker 2: is acting now, right, and part is because you know,
Speaker 2: they have been watching and I think like keying and
Speaker 2: like sort of editing their behavior as a result of
Speaker 2: how the Russian campaign in Ukraine has gone.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they definitely see it as a way to get
Speaker 2: away from Russia. I mean, like, yeah, like any small
Speaker 2: state in Russia's sphere is doing right now, with the
Speaker 2: exception of Georgia, who's kind of doing the opposite.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they there is this, I mean, one of
Speaker 1: the things that is really unsettling right now is there
Speaker 1: is this There has been kind of a freeze and
Speaker 1: a number of conflicts around the world that we have
Speaker 1: seen thawing out for the last really the last five
Speaker 1: six years. It's been particularly like accelerating this kind kind
Speaker 1: of like thaw and a bunch of these old frozen conflicts.
Speaker 1: And part of why is that there's this understanding by
Speaker 1: a lot of these regional powers that like, well, if
Speaker 1: I kicked the fucking door and nobody's coming.
Speaker 2: After me, right, and Azerbaijean understands that to a certain extent,
Speaker 2: which is why they acted the way they acted last
Speaker 2: year in September. I mean, the CSTO is a joke,
Speaker 2: but it does have a mutual defense clause, just like
Speaker 2: NATO does. So an invasion of our borders should have
Speaker 2: triggered it, and that was if people had some kind
Speaker 2: of not sure if Russia could commit to other things.
Speaker 2: That's meanted it for a lot of people. It's sumitted it.
Speaker 2: For Armenia specifically, I mean, we're still technically legal members
Speaker 2: of that alliance, but we have no representation in anymore.
Speaker 2: We don't take part in trainings, we don't go to meetings.
Speaker 2: We're functionally out of it, and we certainly will be
Speaker 2: after this, I believe. But I mean the as an
Speaker 2: example of how you can't really negotiate with someone with
Speaker 2: this kind of ideology in so far as from this position,
Speaker 2: like I'm not saying that like this only ends with
Speaker 2: international peacekeepers hoisting a flag over Blakhu with this kind
Speaker 2: of power discrepancy that the Azaria government has said that
Speaker 2: they will negotiate with the government in Stepanekert in Karabak,
Speaker 2: once they dissolve and lay down all their weapons. So
Speaker 2: once you completely disarm and get rid of all of
Speaker 2: the ways you can defend yourself from the obvious slaughter
Speaker 2: that's coming your way, then we'll talk. Is that really
Speaker 2: a way? Is that a way of any negotiations could
Speaker 2: ever happen? Like being realistic, of course it's not. The
Speaker 2: government of kara Bak is the only thing. The government
Speaker 2: of Karabak and the small local self defense force is
Speaker 2: the only negotiating like little crumb that they have because
Speaker 2: it's stopping them from being murdered. And for people who
Speaker 2: think I'm being we like I'm overreacting or something, look
Speaker 2: at how they treated that. Any Armenian civilians that fell
Speaker 2: into their hands into the twenty twenty war. They cut
Speaker 2: off their ears, they cut off their fingers, they cut
Speaker 2: off their noses, They fucking behead of them. It was
Speaker 2: like watching Isis videos. But they're wearing multiicam and wearing
Speaker 2: fast helmets and they publish them proudly on the internet.
Speaker 2: They're not ashamed of this. You can only imagine what
Speaker 2: happens when a city of one hundred thousand people falls
Speaker 2: into their hands. Yeah, and that is war song in the
Speaker 2: nineteen forties.
Speaker 1: Something around like, Yeah, about one hundred, one hundred and
Speaker 1: twenty thousand people who are who are still there.
Speaker 2: Our media cannot solve this problem. We do not have
Speaker 2: the power to force them to the negotiation table to
Speaker 2: guarantee the rights of existence for people where they live.
Speaker 2: The countries that do are now friends with the country
Speaker 2: that is doing it, so it requires some actual diplomatic spine.
Speaker 2: And the thing is, you know, the joke is, every
Speaker 2: time someone is deeply concerned about something, you take a
Speaker 2: drink and then you don't fucking alcoholism, but you can't say,
Speaker 2: you know, we call for an immediate cease of the
Speaker 2: military offensive without an or or like or what or
Speaker 2: fucking what? Like what are you doing? Like? You can't
Speaker 2: use strong words to stop a fucking ballistic missile. Yeah,
Speaker 2: there needs to be an ore.
Speaker 1: We're staring at about a century since we had a
Speaker 1: series of conflicts, many of which were based around different
Speaker 1: sort of like regional powers scapegoating and then carrying out
Speaker 1: acts of tremendous violence against groups of people, including specifically
Speaker 1: the Armenians.
Speaker 2: Like a tale as old as time. It's being treated
Speaker 2: as an anti terror operation. And you can go back
Speaker 2: to nineteen thirteen during the GENUSI, the first genocide, and
Speaker 2: it's the same exact excuse the Ottoman Empire used well.
Speaker 1: And it's being treated you know, that's what how the
Speaker 1: Azaris are excusing it. But over here, like when you're
Speaker 1: talking about like US politics, about Western politics, it's it's
Speaker 1: it's a thing that's happening over there, right, Like it's
Speaker 1: a couple of countries that most people don't know very
Speaker 1: much about, and like what is what is our Why
Speaker 1: are we involved in this? And it's like, well, because
Speaker 1: this is the thing that we said, like after one
Speaker 1: hundred something million people died, the idea that we all
Speaker 1: kind of came together with was, well, we should probably
Speaker 1: stop folks from doing some of the things that led
Speaker 1: to all of those terrible wars.
Speaker 2: And we just hear people frame it as, oh, those
Speaker 2: people have just been fighting forever. Yeah, no, we haven't.
Speaker 2: It's been within my lifetime. Like I'm thirty five years old.
Speaker 2: This war is not older than i am.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like there was not always mass violence between like
Speaker 1: the people in this region, right, Like Azaries and Armenians
Speaker 1: have not been killing each other over art Soak for
Speaker 1: thousands of years, right like that.
Speaker 2: There's Armenians, and yeah, they used to live next to
Speaker 2: one another. We're not intractable millennia long enemy. But this
Speaker 2: isn't one of those conflicts that you I mean, you
Speaker 2: shouldn't do that with any conflict because it's a scapegoat
Speaker 2: to get you to stop caring and educating yourself about it.
Speaker 2: But specifically in the context of this episode, certainly not
Speaker 2: this conflict. This conflict involves very recent events. Yeah, and
Speaker 2: it's it's tied to major geopolitical events happening in the
Speaker 2: world right now that whatever country that you're living in
Speaker 2: and listening to, your country is involved in.
Speaker 1: And it's I mean, like the the the actual as
Speaker 1: far as I can see that, the actual like realistic
Speaker 1: solution here because this is not a case, right, I
Speaker 1: don't think like shipping a bunch of fucking weapons is
Speaker 1: a realistic thing to hope for. Like the actual realistic
Speaker 1: case for stopping this is putting people in the country
Speaker 1: that uh provide some sort of like barrier to a
Speaker 1: Zeri aggression, right, Like that's like it's taking action.
Speaker 2: We need the thing that we did for Kosovo yes, yes,
Speaker 2: that's exactly what we need without without any kind of
Speaker 2: negotiations or debates like that is the only thing that
Speaker 2: will stop what is coming. It's not an if like
Speaker 2: and this is coming.
Speaker 1: And hey online left people, you know, the Azaris are
Speaker 1: buy in Israeli arms, Like this is a situation in which,
Speaker 1: like we're not talking about we don't need we don't
Speaker 1: need guys kicking indoors. We literally need dudes standing around
Speaker 1: to create a barrier by the sheer political fact of
Speaker 1: their existence, right, That's.
Speaker 2: All it takes. And not to mention if you're trying
Speaker 2: to frame this in like an anti imperialist context or whatever,
Speaker 2: Agema Jhon is literally a fascist fucking dictatorship like the Yeah,
Speaker 2: and Armenia. We have our problems, Karabak, they have their problems,
Speaker 2: you know, but they're functioning representative democracies and with people
Speaker 2: in land that they've lived on. It's I mean, there
Speaker 2: are other people who are indigenous to that land as well,
Speaker 2: but it's also theirs. It's if you want to think
Speaker 2: of it in that way, which I don't really like
Speaker 2: to do because it's it's dirt. But the real issue
Speaker 2: here is the people. The people's lives are like, it
Speaker 2: doesn't fucking matter who controls to PANICRT at the end
Speaker 2: of the day, if people are allowed to live there
Speaker 2: and live their lives in dignity in the way that
Speaker 2: they choose to live them. Yeah, but that's not going
Speaker 2: to happen if the fascist dictatorship's genocidal armies come storming through, right.
Speaker 2: It's it's simply impossible. And that's one of the main
Speaker 2: reasons why Kak Karabak Armenians and the Armenian State as
Speaker 2: well has continuously said that Karabak can't exist within the
Speaker 2: frameworks of the Azaria Reports public because the Azari Republic
Speaker 2: is demonstrously uh anti Armenian. Like for instance, if you
Speaker 2: have an Armenian surname like I do, you can't even
Speaker 2: go there. It doesn't even matter if you've even been
Speaker 2: to this country or not. Simply existing is enough to
Speaker 2: be denied entry. It's it's not a place. I mean,
Speaker 2: if you want to see how they'll be treated, look
Speaker 2: how they treat their own fucking people. Yeah, it's like
Speaker 2: asking anyone to be liberated by the fucking forces of
Speaker 2: North Korea or Saudi Arabia or something. It's obscene, it's absurd.
Speaker 2: The only thing that like and I'm not saying I
Speaker 2: support the government in Armenia as any as anybody who
Speaker 2: knows me. I don't support any government. But the only
Speaker 2: constant track they've had is we support their right for
Speaker 2: self determination, as anybody should. And they voted in the
Speaker 2: eighties to be on their own, not to be part
Speaker 2: of Armenia, not to be part of ANDWJAN, but to
Speaker 2: be the republic of art SoC because they're the only
Speaker 2: people who care about their own rights, their own degnity,
Speaker 2: and their own right to existence. That's all anybody should
Speaker 2: ever defend is people's rights to do that. Yeah, And
Speaker 2: ever since, they've made a functioning state with free and
Speaker 2: fair elections, ministries that handle these things, ministries of health,
Speaker 2: ministries of defense, ministries of education. It's a functioning republic.
Speaker 2: It's not some statelet that barely functions. And the powers
Speaker 2: invading it don't only mean to destroy those the separatist power,
Speaker 2: they mean to destroy the people that live there. There's
Speaker 2: no room for them to exist in this country.
Speaker 1: So, Joe, what do you expect us to see coming
Speaker 1: in the next couple of days here? As you know,
Speaker 1: we're about twenty four hours in right now to the
Speaker 1: renewed a Zeri attack on art Sock, Like, what is
Speaker 1: your kind of expectation for what happens next?
Speaker 2: Well, the art Sock Defense Army is doing their best. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously they're fighting as hard as they possibly can. However,
Speaker 2: without immediate international intervention in some capacity, I mean physical intervention,
Speaker 2: a you will stop or this will occur type situation,
Speaker 2: it's only a matter of time until it ends.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, I think that's.
Speaker 2: And to quote the former head of Doctors without Borders,
Speaker 2: you cannot stop a genocide with doctors. Yeah, there's only
Speaker 2: one way to stop it. And you know, like I've
Speaker 2: said a million times before, I believe before on your show, Yep,
Speaker 2: the only thing that's allowing this to go on is
Speaker 2: the unwillingness of literally anybody to get involved. And there's
Speaker 2: a couple of quotes about that, Yeah, exactly, it's it's
Speaker 2: not a new concept.
Speaker 1: Yeah. And gide studies.
Speaker 2: As someone who studies war, studies genocide and has fought
Speaker 2: in war. War is fucking awful and I don't want
Speaker 2: it for anybody. I don't want a Zari kids to
Speaker 2: conscripts to be fucking dying for this. I don't want
Speaker 2: Armenians to be dying for this. But the only thing
Speaker 2: that's going to stop it is someone who is not Armenian,
Speaker 2: not as AARI, and certainly not fucking Russian, to say
Speaker 2: stop or we will fucking stop it.
Speaker 1: Yep. Yeah, I think that's I think that's as uh
Speaker 1: as good a point to close on as there is
Speaker 1: as we're gonna find at least. Joe, do you have
Speaker 1: anything else you wanted to kind of like bring up
Speaker 1: before we roll out here? I would? I would.
Speaker 2: This is normally where I would say you could support
Speaker 2: the people involved in this in this way, but unfortunately,
Speaker 2: there's they're under siege, they're surrounded, nothing can get to them.
Speaker 2: There's I got nothing, man.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that that is the reality, right, It's
Speaker 1: like there's nowhere to send money, there's nothing to like,
Speaker 1: and to be quite frank, I mean, I think people
Speaker 1: should be harassing their their representatives over this. But you know,
Speaker 1: I'm not overly optimistic. Yeah, the Biden administration has been
Speaker 1: making noises, you know, but but I you know, I
Speaker 1: have not seen evidence that they're going to do more
Speaker 1: than that yet.
Speaker 2: So I will say if the United States gets involved
Speaker 2: and they really want to turn Armenia to the West,
Speaker 2: which they absolutely should. There's no better time, like now,
Speaker 2: this is the chance to do it. You want to
Speaker 2: show that, like the West is the way for Armenians
Speaker 2: and pull them completely away from Russia because everybody wants
Speaker 2: to get the fuck away from Russia. Like, yeah, there's
Speaker 2: thousands of people marching down the street literally saying fuck
Speaker 2: Russia yesterday. But you need to give them a path
Speaker 2: to do so, and this is the way to do it.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, shit, thanks Joe. Sorry, sorry we keep having
Speaker 1: you on the show in this uh this situation. I
Speaker 1: uh well, we'll come on and talk about something. I
Speaker 1: don't know. We probably won't.
Speaker 2: Neither of our shows that we're talking about.
Speaker 1: Other of our shows talk about anything lighthearted. Check out
Speaker 1: Joe's show Lions Led by Donkeys, The Lions Lit by
Speaker 1: Donkeys podcast, Great Military History podcast. Joe, thank you for
Speaker 1: being on, and please, I don't know, uh, good luck.
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me on.
Speaker 1: Rob It could.
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