WEBVTT - Micklethwait: Goodbye to all that

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Surveillance. The main focus now is to

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<v Speaker 1>prevent that this move in Britain encourages populist movements in

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<v Speaker 1>other countries. Nothing will change in the terms on which

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<v Speaker 1>Britain contray with the rest of the world for at

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<v Speaker 1>least two years. This project to knit the European countries

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<v Speaker 1>together in a kind of a United States of Europe

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<v Speaker 1>is up against it. In my view, it's not going

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<v Speaker 1>to work. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the world of economics,

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<v Speaker 1>finance and investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning everyone, Michael

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<v Speaker 1>McKee and Tom Keane Bloomberg Surveillance Worldwide. We welcome all

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<v Speaker 1>of you this morning. Michael, you got your arm up

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<v Speaker 1>over there. You get some news coming. We've got some

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<v Speaker 1>news coming. It is Car Sales Day, the first month

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<v Speaker 1>day reports on June car sales from the Big Three.

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<v Speaker 1>The first of the Big three, as always, Fiat Chrysler

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<v Speaker 1>sales up six and a half percent. That's less than

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<v Speaker 1>the forecast consensus estimate of eight point nine percent. However,

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<v Speaker 1>once again sales are up for a Fiat Chrysler, so

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<v Speaker 1>they continue their trend to continue continually improving their business

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<v Speaker 1>with pounds Sterling and ninety four. You wonder where car

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<v Speaker 1>sales will be in the United Kingdom? Is an exports

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<v Speaker 1>an important proce. You know. One of the biggest employers

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<v Speaker 1>in England and the biggest car sales company in England

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<v Speaker 1>is the Ford Motor Company. So it happens in It's

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<v Speaker 1>not just Rolls. Royce happens in England. Matters a lot

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<v Speaker 1>in Detroit. And I saw Michels wait with his Bentley

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<v Speaker 1>the other day and I'm like, where did he get that?

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<v Speaker 1>Did he buy? The wheel was on the other side

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<v Speaker 1>of the car? Couldn't believe it. The for X Brief

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<v Speaker 1>this Morning, brought to you by Interactive Brokers for X

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<v Speaker 1>traders focus on tightness of spreads if cost matters. Visit

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<v Speaker 1>ib k R dot com slash for x to learn

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<v Speaker 1>about their forex e c N and includes fourteen fourteen

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<v Speaker 1>of the largest inter bank dealers Sterling one nine five,

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<v Speaker 1>Michels twas broke Yeah, one oh two sixty four euro

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<v Speaker 1>one eleven thirty five WI lee of it at that.

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<v Speaker 1>What is success? I think it is a mixture of

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<v Speaker 1>having a flare for the thing that you are doing,

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<v Speaker 1>knowing that it is not enough that you have got

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<v Speaker 1>to have hard work and a certain sense of purpose,

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<v Speaker 1>Margaret Thatcher from a few years ago, John Michaelsway with

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<v Speaker 1>a terrific essay, truly heartfelt essay that those four those

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<v Speaker 1>against on his England. I make jokes about it, but John,

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<v Speaker 1>congratulations on this essay. The photo of Baroness Thatcher speaks

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<v Speaker 1>volumes about your emotion as well. Is Michael Gove or

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<v Speaker 1>Theresa May or You're not running, are you? I was

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<v Speaker 1>thinking about it. We could run together as a as

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<v Speaker 1>a joint ticket, which would be the obvious ownset. We

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<v Speaker 1>have a Canadian bank governor of the Bank of England,

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<v Speaker 1>a small step to Tom Keane as king. Maybe where

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<v Speaker 1>is the certain sense of purpose going forward? As Baroness

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<v Speaker 1>Thatcher spoke of. Is that sets the purpose? I think

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<v Speaker 1>to be fair, right, I think to be fair to

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<v Speaker 1>Michael Gove and Theresa May both in different ways have

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<v Speaker 1>a certain sense of purpose. Michael Gove. Is he's a

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<v Speaker 1>friend of mine? Isn't he's a ideal logue? I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>here's somebody who believes very very firmly in things, and

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<v Speaker 1>for instance, I think he would be holy convinced that

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<v Speaker 1>Brexit is within the tradition of Margaret Thatcher. He would

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<v Speaker 1>see it as a tradition trying to build a liberal,

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<v Speaker 1>better Britain that could sit outside the Leviathan of Brussels.

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<v Speaker 1>That that's very much the way he goes and that's

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<v Speaker 1>very much the sort of Britain he would like to

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<v Speaker 1>build in Michael his humility in his comments today of

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<v Speaker 1>saying he doesn't have the baboom, he doesn't have the

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<v Speaker 1>pop and the other candidates was something, yeah, I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's I think that's true. I think he's always been

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<v Speaker 1>a he's always been somebody who's been a thinker rather

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<v Speaker 1>than necessarily a leader. It's worth it's worth pointing out

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<v Speaker 1>in his favor, he was the guy who got ahold

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<v Speaker 1>of the education brief and pushed through a very health

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<v Speaker 1>education thing past the school teachers, who are almost as

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<v Speaker 1>powerful a lobby in Britain as they are in America.

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<v Speaker 1>And he did push. He pushed that very hard. It

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<v Speaker 1>did result in him getting extraordinarily unpopular teachers. So he

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<v Speaker 1>was removed by Cameron, who was another a very close

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<v Speaker 1>friend of his, and put into a different post. Theresa

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<v Speaker 1>May is much more and more sort of solid figure.

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<v Speaker 1>She's slightly more akin in some ways to Angler Merkel,

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<v Speaker 1>and in some ways again, I think that makes her

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<v Speaker 1>quite an attractive candidate, because she might be the sort

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<v Speaker 1>of person you can imagine sitting down with Michael and

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<v Speaker 1>trying to hash out a deal, but doing it on

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<v Speaker 1>broadly equivalent levels. She has one difficulty is as sort

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<v Speaker 1>of home secretary, as we call it. She was the

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<v Speaker 1>person who was at least nominally in charge of immigration.

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<v Speaker 1>But the problem with immigration is that nobody is really

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<v Speaker 1>in charge with it because as long as Britakers within

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<v Speaker 1>the European Union, as many people from the British European

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<v Speaker 1>Union in general, can get into Britain as as they

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<v Speaker 1>want getting a lit have noticed for the essay you

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<v Speaker 1>wrote this week for Bloomberg dot Com Goodbye to All

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<v Speaker 1>that a sort of lament for uh the United Kingdom

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<v Speaker 1>that that was um and maybe at time still the

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<v Speaker 1>title from Robert Graves, which is one of one of

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<v Speaker 1>the many influences of Tom Keane, or maybe it was

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<v Speaker 1>the other way around. What struck me though in reading

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<v Speaker 1>it was that I wondered if I were reading the

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<v Speaker 1>lament of an Englishman who was coming from the perspective

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<v Speaker 1>of someone within England looking at at this because it's

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<v Speaker 1>a historian, you know that things go in cycles. You

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<v Speaker 1>praised the Thatcher era and the level to which she rose,

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<v Speaker 1>But if the Argentine generals hadn't invaded the Falklands, she

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<v Speaker 1>might have been a one term prime minister. We never

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<v Speaker 1>would have been talking about her. Accidents of history can

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<v Speaker 1>mean a lot. Yes, I think, I think maybe very quickly,

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<v Speaker 1>just I should quickly lay out the thesis. The thesis was,

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<v Speaker 1>this is the back in to nine Mrs Thatcher snuck

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<v Speaker 1>up on Britain. We most people then voted. Certainly I

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<v Speaker 1>was very young. I think I was too young just

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<v Speaker 1>to vote. But most people I knew who voted for

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<v Speaker 1>her voted for her as being a sort of hard

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<v Speaker 1>headed pragmatist who would deal with, you know, the mess

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<v Speaker 1>that labor had left, the winter of discontent and things

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<v Speaker 1>like that. In fact, as I put in the assay,

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<v Speaker 1>she was a much more idyllistic thing. She she called

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<v Speaker 1>back on the sort of ancient British idea of liberalism.

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<v Speaker 1>In some way, it's not liberalism as in Nancy Pelosi,

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<v Speaker 1>but the liberalism of Adam Smith and John Stuart Mill

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<v Speaker 1>and those sort of people and she opened up free markets.

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<v Speaker 1>She pushed things very, very hard, and it was cathartic.

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<v Speaker 1>As you've just pointed out, she was very lucky. She

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<v Speaker 1>might well have been almost certainly would have been thrown

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<v Speaker 1>out um in three, but for the fact that the

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<v Speaker 1>Argentine Strather stupidly invaded the Falklands and she was able

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<v Speaker 1>to push them out and claim a victory. She she

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<v Speaker 1>she she was lucky. She wasn't always consistent, but she

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<v Speaker 1>was by most people stand as brutal in her desire

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<v Speaker 1>to sort of open Britain up. She probably went too

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<v Speaker 1>far in some places. A lot of the industrial North

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<v Speaker 1>that voted against voted for Brexit this time with the

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<v Speaker 1>areas she came from. And my thesis is that that

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<v Speaker 1>was the beginning of a sort of reversal of history.

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<v Speaker 1>That the Britain and I grew up in was one

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<v Speaker 1>where we just expected gentle gentlemanly decline um and then

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<v Speaker 1>it was just bound to gradually go down. That was

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<v Speaker 1>the whole atmosphere everything I saw that Sha completely shook

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<v Speaker 1>that up. And to be fair to her successors, to

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<v Speaker 1>be fair to John Major, Tony Blair, they opened that up.

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<v Speaker 1>Britain became the sort of capital of finance for Europe.

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<v Speaker 1>It became the capital also of of of talented people.

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<v Speaker 1>If I was to visit, you know that any of

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<v Speaker 1>the people in this room in Rome, or in Paris

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<v Speaker 1>or in Berlin, all their children would be trying to

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<v Speaker 1>go to London to be um, to to work there,

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<v Speaker 1>to study there. And for that extent, London rather bizarrely,

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<v Speaker 1>despite being the place which was at least happy with

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<v Speaker 1>the European Union, became as the capital of Europe. And

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<v Speaker 1>what I fear is that maybe, just maybe there's Brexit

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<v Speaker 1>vote is the end of that era. But could it

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<v Speaker 1>also not lead to a reinvention we could? I think again,

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<v Speaker 1>if Michael Gove was here, he would sit and say,

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely what we're doing is a d percent. In the

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<v Speaker 1>spirit of Margaret's action, she might well have voted for

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<v Speaker 1>a Brexit herself. But the danger is that for every

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<v Speaker 1>pro globalization person like go and arguably like Boris Johnson too,

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<v Speaker 1>although his beliefs are a little less certain, if we

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<v Speaker 1>could put it that way, for every single person who

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<v Speaker 1>would think this is you know about written being the

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<v Speaker 1>global cultural entrepos There are quite a lot of people,

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<v Speaker 1>or most of the Brexit vote, where people who said

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<v Speaker 1>we've had too much globalization, not the people who said

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<v Speaker 1>we haven't had enough, go is from that liberal we're

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<v Speaker 1>going through there in the US, certainly with Trump and

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<v Speaker 1>the whole question of whether popularism is other rise. But

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<v Speaker 1>you got back to the eighteen nineties, I mean, the

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<v Speaker 1>world was coming to an end. William Jennings Bryan was

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<v Speaker 1>going to around the country and and you know then

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<v Speaker 1>you got Teddy Roosevelt who adopted all that stuff. And

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<v Speaker 1>I heard you make a very good joke this morning

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<v Speaker 1>about about Tom Keene being an intern in seventeen eighties.

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<v Speaker 1>But back in an interesting perhaps the most interesting bit

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<v Speaker 1>which I didn't put in the essay, almost one interesting

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<v Speaker 1>bit relevant to that is there's a bit of John

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<v Speaker 1>Maynard Ken's where he looks back at a Londoner in

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<v Speaker 1>and the Londoners sitting in bed. It's the end of

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<v Speaker 1>the first great age of globalization, and he is sipping

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<v Speaker 1>his morning tea in bed, and he is able to

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<v Speaker 1>order from around the world everything. He can order any

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<v Speaker 1>any manufacture. There is no barriers of trade. That global currency,

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<v Speaker 1>effectively sterling, was that you have this fantastic open market

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<v Speaker 1>around the world and he already can think about it

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<v Speaker 1>is that actually can order the stuff around the world.

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<v Speaker 1>And in his newspaper there's a sort of headline at

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<v Speaker 1>the bottom saying Archdukes South shot in Sarajevo. But he

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<v Speaker 1>does not believe that the world is going to change,

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<v Speaker 1>except it's going to get more global and in some

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<v Speaker 1>ways where it's a sort of similar sort of moment.

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<v Speaker 1>People voted for this thing somewhat by accident, but it

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<v Speaker 1>could have very very big ramifications. John, do you believe

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<v Speaker 1>this is from the Economist tower in St James? Do

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<v Speaker 1>you believe that the elites and changed St James Street

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<v Speaker 1>in London or of all different pace skills, they really

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<v Speaker 1>are going to move to Europe? I think quite. I

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<v Speaker 1>think what will happen is two things. One, there is

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<v Speaker 1>a vast sort of soft power element of Britain which

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<v Speaker 1>is hard to shake. People have children at British schools,

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<v Speaker 1>people who moved there. But there are some structural things,

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<v Speaker 1>you know you that Britain has. It doesn't have particularly

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<v Speaker 1>great infrastructure, we're not particularly big unproductivity in some areas.

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<v Speaker 1>Um the reasons that made it a default option for

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<v Speaker 1>anybody who is young and not never in Europe may change. John.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much. John. Michael tweet with Bloomberg this morning.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's check in with Michael Byron. Now I'll get the

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<v Speaker 1>latest world and national headlines. Michael by time, Thank you

0:10:56.400 --> 0:10:59.760
<v Speaker 1>very much. A Justice Department officials says Attorney General Lauretta

0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:05.520
<v Speaker 1>expects to accept whatever recommendation prosecutors make in the investigation

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<v Speaker 1>into Hillary Clinton's handling of emails while she was Secretary

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<v Speaker 1>of State. It comes after a private discussion Lynch had

0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:16.839
<v Speaker 1>aboard her plane Monday with former President Bill Clinton. It's

0:11:16.880 --> 0:11:20.720
<v Speaker 1>been criticized as an appropriate by Republicans and some Democrats.

0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:23.360
<v Speaker 1>A federal judges putting on the whole key portions of

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<v Speaker 1>a new Florida abortion law. The law blocks public funding

0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:31.640
<v Speaker 1>for planned parenthood and greatly increases inspection requirements aboard the

0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:35.600
<v Speaker 1>abortion clinics. A new poll shows that European citizens want

0:11:35.679 --> 0:11:39.000
<v Speaker 1>the EU to be more involved in the fight against terrorism.

0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:42.280
<v Speaker 1>In the poll announced by the European Parliament in Brussels,

0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:46.120
<v Speaker 1>it says eight percent of the EU should intervene more

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<v Speaker 1>than it has now been in the anti terrorism experts

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<v Speaker 1>Michael Barr, This is Bloomberg, Tom, Michael Bars. Thanks so much.

0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:55.160
<v Speaker 1>We didn't get to John Nichols Way, but I can

0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:57.720
<v Speaker 1>assure you it's his fault. There isn't a third runway

0:11:58.000 --> 0:12:05.880
<v Speaker 1>at Heathrow. Will continue Bloomberg's surveillance. This is Bloomberg Market Drivers,

0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:08.560
<v Speaker 1>brought to you by Bank of America. Mery Lynch committed

0:12:08.559 --> 0:12:11.120
<v Speaker 1>to bringing higher financed, lower carbon name the most innovative

0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:13.679
<v Speaker 1>investment bank for climate change and sustainability by the banker.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the power of global connections. Bank of America n A,

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<v Speaker 1>F D I C