Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. The main focus now is to
Speaker 1: prevent that this move in Britain encourages populist movements in
Speaker 1: other countries. Nothing will change in the terms on which
Speaker 1: Britain contray with the rest of the world for at
Speaker 1: least two years. This project to knit the European countries
Speaker 1: together in a kind of a United States of Europe
Speaker 1: is up against it. In my view, it's not going
Speaker 1: to work. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the world of economics,
Speaker 1: finance and investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning everyone, Michael
Speaker 1: McKee and Tom Keane Bloomberg Surveillance Worldwide. We welcome all
Speaker 1: of you this morning. Michael, you got your arm up
Speaker 1: over there. You get some news coming. We've got some
Speaker 1: news coming. It is Car Sales Day, the first month
Speaker 1: day reports on June car sales from the Big Three.
Speaker 1: The first of the Big three, as always, Fiat Chrysler
Speaker 1: sales up six and a half percent. That's less than
Speaker 1: the forecast consensus estimate of eight point nine percent. However,
Speaker 1: once again sales are up for a Fiat Chrysler, so
Speaker 1: they continue their trend to continue continually improving their business
Speaker 1: with pounds Sterling and ninety four. You wonder where car
Speaker 1: sales will be in the United Kingdom? Is an exports
Speaker 1: an important proce. You know. One of the biggest employers
Speaker 1: in England and the biggest car sales company in England
Speaker 1: is the Ford Motor Company. So it happens in It's
Speaker 1: not just Rolls. Royce happens in England. Matters a lot
Speaker 1: in Detroit. And I saw Michels wait with his Bentley
Speaker 1: the other day and I'm like, where did he get that?
Speaker 1: Did he buy? The wheel was on the other side
Speaker 1: of the car? Couldn't believe it. The for X Brief
Speaker 1: this Morning, brought to you by Interactive Brokers for X
Speaker 1: traders focus on tightness of spreads if cost matters. Visit
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Speaker 1: about their forex e c N and includes fourteen fourteen
Speaker 1: of the largest inter bank dealers Sterling one nine five,
Speaker 1: Michels twas broke Yeah, one oh two sixty four euro
Speaker 1: one eleven thirty five WI lee of it at that.
Speaker 1: What is success? I think it is a mixture of
Speaker 1: having a flare for the thing that you are doing,
Speaker 1: knowing that it is not enough that you have got
Speaker 1: to have hard work and a certain sense of purpose,
Speaker 1: Margaret Thatcher from a few years ago, John Michaelsway with
Speaker 1: a terrific essay, truly heartfelt essay that those four those
Speaker 1: against on his England. I make jokes about it, but John,
Speaker 1: congratulations on this essay. The photo of Baroness Thatcher speaks
Speaker 1: volumes about your emotion as well. Is Michael Gove or
Speaker 1: Theresa May or You're not running, are you? I was
Speaker 1: thinking about it. We could run together as a as
Speaker 1: a joint ticket, which would be the obvious ownset. We
Speaker 1: have a Canadian bank governor of the Bank of England,
Speaker 1: a small step to Tom Keane as king. Maybe where
Speaker 1: is the certain sense of purpose going forward? As Baroness
Speaker 1: Thatcher spoke of. Is that sets the purpose? I think
Speaker 1: to be fair, right, I think to be fair to
Speaker 1: Michael Gove and Theresa May both in different ways have
Speaker 1: a certain sense of purpose. Michael Gove. Is he's a
Speaker 1: friend of mine? Isn't he's a ideal logue? I mean,
Speaker 1: here's somebody who believes very very firmly in things, and
Speaker 1: for instance, I think he would be holy convinced that
Speaker 1: Brexit is within the tradition of Margaret Thatcher. He would
Speaker 1: see it as a tradition trying to build a liberal,
Speaker 1: better Britain that could sit outside the Leviathan of Brussels.
Speaker 1: That that's very much the way he goes and that's
Speaker 1: very much the sort of Britain he would like to
Speaker 1: build in Michael his humility in his comments today of
Speaker 1: saying he doesn't have the baboom, he doesn't have the
Speaker 1: pop and the other candidates was something, yeah, I think
Speaker 1: that's I think that's true. I think he's always been
Speaker 1: a he's always been somebody who's been a thinker rather
Speaker 1: than necessarily a leader. It's worth it's worth pointing out
Speaker 1: in his favor, he was the guy who got ahold
Speaker 1: of the education brief and pushed through a very health
Speaker 1: education thing past the school teachers, who are almost as
Speaker 1: powerful a lobby in Britain as they are in America.
Speaker 1: And he did push. He pushed that very hard. It
Speaker 1: did result in him getting extraordinarily unpopular teachers. So he
Speaker 1: was removed by Cameron, who was another a very close
Speaker 1: friend of his, and put into a different post. Theresa
Speaker 1: May is much more and more sort of solid figure.
Speaker 1: She's slightly more akin in some ways to Angler Merkel,
Speaker 1: and in some ways again, I think that makes her
Speaker 1: quite an attractive candidate, because she might be the sort
Speaker 1: of person you can imagine sitting down with Michael and
Speaker 1: trying to hash out a deal, but doing it on
Speaker 1: broadly equivalent levels. She has one difficulty is as sort
Speaker 1: of home secretary, as we call it. She was the
Speaker 1: person who was at least nominally in charge of immigration.
Speaker 1: But the problem with immigration is that nobody is really
Speaker 1: in charge with it because as long as Britakers within
Speaker 1: the European Union, as many people from the British European
Speaker 1: Union in general, can get into Britain as as they
Speaker 1: want getting a lit have noticed for the essay you
Speaker 1: wrote this week for Bloomberg dot Com Goodbye to All
Speaker 1: that a sort of lament for uh the United Kingdom
Speaker 1: that that was um and maybe at time still the
Speaker 1: title from Robert Graves, which is one of one of
Speaker 1: the many influences of Tom Keane, or maybe it was
Speaker 1: the other way around. What struck me though in reading
Speaker 1: it was that I wondered if I were reading the
Speaker 1: lament of an Englishman who was coming from the perspective
Speaker 1: of someone within England looking at at this because it's
Speaker 1: a historian, you know that things go in cycles. You
Speaker 1: praised the Thatcher era and the level to which she rose,
Speaker 1: But if the Argentine generals hadn't invaded the Falklands, she
Speaker 1: might have been a one term prime minister. We never
Speaker 1: would have been talking about her. Accidents of history can
Speaker 1: mean a lot. Yes, I think, I think maybe very quickly,
Speaker 1: just I should quickly lay out the thesis. The thesis was,
Speaker 1: this is the back in to nine Mrs Thatcher snuck
Speaker 1: up on Britain. We most people then voted. Certainly I
Speaker 1: was very young. I think I was too young just
Speaker 1: to vote. But most people I knew who voted for
Speaker 1: her voted for her as being a sort of hard
Speaker 1: headed pragmatist who would deal with, you know, the mess
Speaker 1: that labor had left, the winter of discontent and things
Speaker 1: like that. In fact, as I put in the assay,
Speaker 1: she was a much more idyllistic thing. She she called
Speaker 1: back on the sort of ancient British idea of liberalism.
Speaker 1: In some way, it's not liberalism as in Nancy Pelosi,
Speaker 1: but the liberalism of Adam Smith and John Stuart Mill
Speaker 1: and those sort of people and she opened up free markets.
Speaker 1: She pushed things very, very hard, and it was cathartic.
Speaker 1: As you've just pointed out, she was very lucky. She
Speaker 1: might well have been almost certainly would have been thrown
Speaker 1: out um in three, but for the fact that the
Speaker 1: Argentine Strather stupidly invaded the Falklands and she was able
Speaker 1: to push them out and claim a victory. She she
Speaker 1: she she was lucky. She wasn't always consistent, but she
Speaker 1: was by most people stand as brutal in her desire
Speaker 1: to sort of open Britain up. She probably went too
Speaker 1: far in some places. A lot of the industrial North
Speaker 1: that voted against voted for Brexit this time with the
Speaker 1: areas she came from. And my thesis is that that
Speaker 1: was the beginning of a sort of reversal of history.
Speaker 1: That the Britain and I grew up in was one
Speaker 1: where we just expected gentle gentlemanly decline um and then
Speaker 1: it was just bound to gradually go down. That was
Speaker 1: the whole atmosphere everything I saw that Sha completely shook
Speaker 1: that up. And to be fair to her successors, to
Speaker 1: be fair to John Major, Tony Blair, they opened that up.
Speaker 1: Britain became the sort of capital of finance for Europe.
Speaker 1: It became the capital also of of of talented people.
Speaker 1: If I was to visit, you know that any of
Speaker 1: the people in this room in Rome, or in Paris
Speaker 1: or in Berlin, all their children would be trying to
Speaker 1: go to London to be um, to to work there,
Speaker 1: to study there. And for that extent, London rather bizarrely,
Speaker 1: despite being the place which was at least happy with
Speaker 1: the European Union, became as the capital of Europe. And
Speaker 1: what I fear is that maybe, just maybe there's Brexit
Speaker 1: vote is the end of that era. But could it
Speaker 1: also not lead to a reinvention we could? I think again,
Speaker 1: if Michael Gove was here, he would sit and say,
Speaker 1: absolutely what we're doing is a d percent. In the
Speaker 1: spirit of Margaret's action, she might well have voted for
Speaker 1: a Brexit herself. But the danger is that for every
Speaker 1: pro globalization person like go and arguably like Boris Johnson too,
Speaker 1: although his beliefs are a little less certain, if we
Speaker 1: could put it that way, for every single person who
Speaker 1: would think this is you know about written being the
Speaker 1: global cultural entrepos There are quite a lot of people,
Speaker 1: or most of the Brexit vote, where people who said
Speaker 1: we've had too much globalization, not the people who said
Speaker 1: we haven't had enough, go is from that liberal we're
Speaker 1: going through there in the US, certainly with Trump and
Speaker 1: the whole question of whether popularism is other rise. But
Speaker 1: you got back to the eighteen nineties, I mean, the
Speaker 1: world was coming to an end. William Jennings Bryan was
Speaker 1: going to around the country and and you know then
Speaker 1: you got Teddy Roosevelt who adopted all that stuff. And
Speaker 1: I heard you make a very good joke this morning
Speaker 1: about about Tom Keene being an intern in seventeen eighties.
Speaker 1: But back in an interesting perhaps the most interesting bit
Speaker 1: which I didn't put in the essay, almost one interesting
Speaker 1: bit relevant to that is there's a bit of John
Speaker 1: Maynard Ken's where he looks back at a Londoner in
Speaker 1: and the Londoners sitting in bed. It's the end of
Speaker 1: the first great age of globalization, and he is sipping
Speaker 1: his morning tea in bed, and he is able to
Speaker 1: order from around the world everything. He can order any
Speaker 1: any manufacture. There is no barriers of trade. That global currency,
Speaker 1: effectively sterling, was that you have this fantastic open market
Speaker 1: around the world and he already can think about it
Speaker 1: is that actually can order the stuff around the world.
Speaker 1: And in his newspaper there's a sort of headline at
Speaker 1: the bottom saying Archdukes South shot in Sarajevo. But he
Speaker 1: does not believe that the world is going to change,
Speaker 1: except it's going to get more global and in some
Speaker 1: ways where it's a sort of similar sort of moment.
Speaker 1: People voted for this thing somewhat by accident, but it
Speaker 1: could have very very big ramifications. John, do you believe
Speaker 1: this is from the Economist tower in St James? Do
Speaker 1: you believe that the elites and changed St James Street
Speaker 1: in London or of all different pace skills, they really
Speaker 1: are going to move to Europe? I think quite. I
Speaker 1: think what will happen is two things. One, there is
Speaker 1: a vast sort of soft power element of Britain which
Speaker 1: is hard to shake. People have children at British schools,
Speaker 1: people who moved there. But there are some structural things,
Speaker 1: you know you that Britain has. It doesn't have particularly
Speaker 1: great infrastructure, we're not particularly big unproductivity in some areas.
Speaker 1: Um the reasons that made it a default option for
Speaker 1: anybody who is young and not never in Europe may change. John.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much. John. Michael tweet with Bloomberg this morning.
Speaker 1: Let's check in with Michael Byron. Now I'll get the
Speaker 1: latest world and national headlines. Michael by time, Thank you
Speaker 1: very much. A Justice Department officials says Attorney General Lauretta
Speaker 1: expects to accept whatever recommendation prosecutors make in the investigation
Speaker 1: into Hillary Clinton's handling of emails while she was Secretary
Speaker 1: of State. It comes after a private discussion Lynch had
Speaker 1: aboard her plane Monday with former President Bill Clinton. It's
Speaker 1: been criticized as an appropriate by Republicans and some Democrats.
Speaker 1: A federal judges putting on the whole key portions of
Speaker 1: a new Florida abortion law. The law blocks public funding
Speaker 1: for planned parenthood and greatly increases inspection requirements aboard the
Speaker 1: abortion clinics. A new poll shows that European citizens want
Speaker 1: the EU to be more involved in the fight against terrorism.
Speaker 1: In the poll announced by the European Parliament in Brussels,
Speaker 1: it says eight percent of the EU should intervene more
Speaker 1: than it has now been in the anti terrorism experts
Speaker 1: Michael Barr, This is Bloomberg, Tom, Michael Bars. Thanks so much.
Speaker 1: We didn't get to John Nichols Way, but I can
Speaker 1: assure you it's his fault. There isn't a third runway
Speaker 1: at Heathrow. Will continue Bloomberg's surveillance. This is Bloomberg Market Drivers,
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