WEBVTT - Irregular Naval Warfare And You (Ukraine and Myanmar Edition) 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:04.960 Al Zone Media. 0:00:05.240 --> 0:00:08.880 Welcome back to It Could Happen Here and our special 0:00:08.960 --> 0:00:13.920 two part series Irregular Naval Warfare and You, where James 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.200 and I teach you how you too can challenge the 0:00:17.360 --> 0:00:20.640 US Navy's dominance of the seas, or at least the 0:00:20.680 --> 0:00:25.279 coasts for fun and profit. Actually today, last episode we 0:00:25.320 --> 0:00:28.760 talked about people challenging the US Navy's coastal dominance. Today 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:32.120 we're talking about doing the same thing for the Russian Navy. 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:34.519 So that's going to be fun. And of course the 0:00:34.600 --> 0:00:37.040 Navy of Meanmar, which is a bit of a different 0:00:37.040 --> 0:00:40.279 class from the US and Russian Navy, but no less interesting. 0:00:41.280 --> 0:00:43.560 Yeah, still fun. I'd love to see about lose. 0:00:43.800 --> 0:00:45.839 Yeah. Well I just like boats going down, you know, 0:00:45.880 --> 0:00:46.640 I just hate a boat. 0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:51.800 Yeah, yeah, USS, many many such cases. Yeah, I'm going 0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:53.800 to start with Ukraine, and then we're going to throw 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:56.240 to James to talk about our friends in Myanmar and 0:00:56.280 --> 0:01:00.920 how they have repurposed civilian technology and stolen weapons to 0:01:01.800 --> 0:01:04.600 counter a navy without really having one of their own. 0:01:04.760 --> 0:01:08.920 But first Ukraine. In twenty fourteen, when the Russian Army 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:12.480 invaded eastern Ukraine and took Crimea, Ukraine lost a significant 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:16.080 portion of it's already not that impressive navy. Most of 0:01:16.120 --> 0:01:18.680 their boats were just taken by Russia, along with a 0:01:18.760 --> 0:01:21.679 number of sailors who defected. A lot of other sailors 0:01:21.720 --> 0:01:24.160 fled the region, leaving behind their homes and cities like 0:01:24.200 --> 0:01:27.080 Sebastopol to continue serving their country in a war that 0:01:27.160 --> 0:01:30.920 a decade later is still ongoing. One of these sailors, 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:33.640 who is a Sebastopol native and had to flee his home, 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:37.480 possibly forever, in order to continue serving his country, is 0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:42.040 the current commander of Ukraine's navy, Admiral Nazpapa. He leads 0:01:42.080 --> 0:01:45.160 a navy that is almost without manned ships, and on paper, 0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:49.400 it is utterly incapable of challenging Russia's legendary Black sea Fleet. 0:01:49.840 --> 0:01:51.960 Since the age of the Tsars, the black sea Fleet 0:01:51.960 --> 0:01:55.880 has been infamous as a pillar of Russian military power. However, 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:58.760 also since the age of the Tsars, it's had a 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:01.840 nasty tendency to get utterly housed by enemies that should 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:02.840 have been able to beat it. 0:02:03.000 --> 0:02:03.200 Right. 0:02:03.880 --> 0:02:06.720 Yeah, yeah, yeah, not the first time. It's taking an 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:07.720 unexpected loot. 0:02:08.000 --> 0:02:08.200 Yeah. 0:02:08.440 --> 0:02:11.440 It has a legendary history. That doesn't mean good. There's bad. 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:16.600 Legendsy out there, you know, Yeah, it's well known. Yeah 0:02:16.639 --> 0:02:20.480 today that enemy is Ukraine. Since the expanded Russian invasion 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:24.240 in twenty twenty two, just two years, Ukraine has destroyed 0:02:24.360 --> 0:02:27.160 or badly damaged more than a third of the Black 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:30.440 Sea fleet. Despite having no battleships or destroyers in the 0:02:30.480 --> 0:02:33.399 sea to counter Russian naval power. They have done enough 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:37.120 damage to reopen Odessa and at least one other port 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:39.960 on the Black Sea to international commerce, which has provided 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:43.280 Ukraine with a crucial economic and strategic lifeline. And that's 0:02:43.320 --> 0:02:46.200 a remarkable achievement. Sinking a third of the Black Sea fleet, 0:02:46.240 --> 0:02:49.280 and basically when you reopen a port, that means that 0:02:49.320 --> 0:02:52.200 you have taken away naval dominance from a country that 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:56.519 has a navy and you don't. That's pretty good, pretty 0:02:56.520 --> 0:03:01.679 good stuff. Over the last two years, had damaged, irreparably 0:03:01.800 --> 0:03:05.359 or sunk seven active landing ships and one to seven 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:08.359 active landing ships and one landing vessel. I don't know 0:03:08.400 --> 0:03:10.720 the difference. They've They've fucked up a lot of boats. 0:03:10.760 --> 0:03:14.519 They have destroyed a submarine with seed to ground capability 0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:17.120 that was docked for repairs. They have sunk a cruiser, 0:03:17.160 --> 0:03:19.880 the capital ship of the entire Black Sea fleet, the Moskva. 0:03:20.320 --> 0:03:22.720 They've also sunk a supply vessel and a handful of 0:03:22.720 --> 0:03:25.240 patrol boats and missile boats, and a number of other 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:28.480 boats have been damaged. That's a significant rate of casualties, 0:03:28.800 --> 0:03:31.880 especially when you consider that every actually destroyed vessel we're 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:35.600 looking at a year's multiple years lead time to replace. 0:03:36.000 --> 0:03:40.640 You cannot make naval vessels very quickly anymore. Back during 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:44.840 the big dub Dub dose, the US did, but nobody 0:03:44.840 --> 0:03:48.440 really does that anymore, not with the big ones. At 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:52.320 least you just roll through that. We were just yeating 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:54.160 aircraft carriers. 0:03:53.680 --> 0:03:56.960 Into the sea, just just flotting them out. 0:03:57.320 --> 0:03:58.440 Yeah, it don't take them out a week. 0:03:58.840 --> 0:04:02.960 Yeah, because it's because Raisi de Rivetay was really riveting 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:03.640 at a high speed. 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:08.040 She was quite a riveter. So at the start of hostilities, Turkey, 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:11.920 which controls access to the Black Sea forbade any additional 0:04:12.000 --> 0:04:15.080 military vessels or at least military vessels of significant size, 0:04:15.080 --> 0:04:17.520 from entering the area. What this means this has a 0:04:17.560 --> 0:04:21.520 significant impact on how well Ukraine strikes work, because even 0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:24.719 if Russia can replace the losses physically, they can't actually 0:04:24.800 --> 0:04:27.600 get replacements into the Black Sea easily. They can't sail 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:30.400 new shit past the Turks. The Turks are not allowing 0:04:30.400 --> 0:04:33.520 that right now. So again, this is a situation that 0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:36.120 has kind of favored the way in which Ukraine has 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:40.279 adapted to countering Russian naval dominance. It is possible that 0:04:40.320 --> 0:04:42.679 at the present rate of attrition, the Black Sea Fleet 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:46.000 could be rendered inoperable in less than two years. Like 0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:47.800 if they keep going at this rates, like eighteen months 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:49.880 or something before, there's not really much of a fleet 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:53.279 anymore now. If Ukraine had accomplished this task with a 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:57.040 traditional navy using standard naval tactics, this would have been 0:04:57.080 --> 0:05:00.200 an impressive victory given the disparity in resources between the 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:02.040 two nations. But they have done all this with a 0:05:02.080 --> 0:05:04.960 mix of cruise missiles, many of which are produced in country, 0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:09.839 aerial drones, and new bespoke locally produced suicide drone boats. 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:13.000 This irregular naval warfare has been successful enough that one 0:05:13.120 --> 0:05:16.440 Rand Corporation engineer and analyst, Scott Savatz, described the Black 0:05:16.480 --> 0:05:20.160 Sea Fleet as a fleet in being quote, it represents 0:05:20.160 --> 0:05:22.880 a potential threat that needs to be vigilantly guarded against, 0:05:22.920 --> 0:05:25.640 but one that remains in check for now. And I'm 0:05:25.640 --> 0:05:27.719 going to quote from a New York Times article on 0:05:27.800 --> 0:05:31.000 the topic, it brought a little more context. Ukraine has 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:33.880 effectively turned around ten thousand square miles in the western 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:36.240 Black Sea off its southern coast into what the military 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:39.200 calls a gray zone, where neither side can sail without 0:05:39.240 --> 0:05:42.599 the threat of attack. James Heapy, Britain's Armed Forces minister, 0:05:42.760 --> 0:05:45.599 told a recent security conference in Warsaw that Russia's Black 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:48.640 Sea fleet had suffered a functional defeat, and contended that 0:05:48.680 --> 0:05:51.120 the liberation of Ukraine's coastal waters in the Black Sea 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:54.200 was every bit as important as the successful counter offensives 0:05:54.240 --> 0:05:57.480 on land and Corsona and Kharkiv last year. The classical 0:05:57.520 --> 0:06:00.320 approach that we studied at military maritime academies is not 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:03.320 work now, Admiral Nese Papas said. Therefore, we have to 0:06:03.320 --> 0:06:05.839 be as flexible as possible and change approaches to planning 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:08.760 and implementing work as much as possible. That at articles 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:11.920 about a year old or so so. The Neptune anti 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:14.680 ship missile is one of the prides of Ukraine's nason 0:06:14.760 --> 0:06:18.440 arms industry. Neptune missiles are credited with destroying the Moskva 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:21.560 in April of twenty twenty two. Ukraine also has access 0:06:21.600 --> 0:06:24.840 to several Western anti ship missiles, including these storm Shadow 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:27.160 and Scalp missiles. I believe the storm Shadow comes from 0:06:27.200 --> 0:06:31.760 your folks, right, James, Yeah, convention, Yeah yeah. And these 0:06:31.760 --> 0:06:34.640 seem to be pretty effective missiles. These obviously much more advanced. 0:06:34.640 --> 0:06:37.800 And these are modern naval weapons, right. These are much 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:40.080 more advanced than, for example, the weapons to who these have. 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:42.200 These are the kind of things that can counter to 0:06:42.279 --> 0:06:46.640 some extent modern anti missile technology. For an example of 0:06:46.720 --> 0:06:48.200 kind of how that tends to work, they used a 0:06:48.240 --> 0:06:51.279 barrage of I believe it was mostly storm shadows to 0:06:51.400 --> 0:06:55.240 rain death on the crime import of Sebastopol. Recently. Seven 0:06:55.320 --> 0:06:57.560 out of eighteen of the missiles fired made it through 0:06:57.640 --> 0:07:00.760 Russian air defenses. And these damaged or just destroyed four 0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:03.320 landing ships and a single strike. And these are sizable 0:07:03.400 --> 0:07:06.440 maple vessels. This is the most recent attack, although as 0:07:06.520 --> 0:07:08.760 after I wrote this, there was another attack on the 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:11.680 Kirch Bridge. I'm not really sure how that took place 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:14.080 yet that seems to have shut it down again. But 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:15.880 that gives you an idea of like what you actually 0:07:15.880 --> 0:07:17.400 have to do. How much of these missiles you have 0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:18.920 to put in the air to get some through. And 0:07:18.960 --> 0:07:21.560 that's not too bad, right eighteen missiles seven get through, 0:07:21.600 --> 0:07:25.440 four ships down. That's a really good rate of return. 0:07:25.640 --> 0:07:28.120 Especially when you consider that, like you know, we were 0:07:28.160 --> 0:07:30.200 talking in our first episode about how the US is 0:07:30.240 --> 0:07:35.080 spending significant resources on maintaining its defending its carriers, right 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:38.680 Russia does not have the same ability to keep good 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:43.360 lord munitions, no, and so like that's a finite resource, 0:07:43.400 --> 0:07:46.080 right there, their means of defining that. Defending their ships 0:07:46.240 --> 0:07:49.880 and defending really anything against missiles are a finite resource. 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:53.400 So any time you can, even if the ship doesn't 0:07:53.920 --> 0:07:56.040 get sunk, if the ship has to deploy one of 0:07:56.080 --> 0:07:58.960 these missiles, which it doesn't, which the whole country doesn't 0:07:59.000 --> 0:08:00.480 have very many of, that's win. 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:04.040 Now, this is we are talking about irregular naval warfare, 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:06.800 and then this is not what most people would have 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:11.000 considered a traditional naval conflict prior to the expansion of 0:08:11.040 --> 0:08:14.000 hostilities in Ukraine. However, we are talking this is very 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:16.280 different than the case of the Huthis. Ukraine is a state. 0:08:16.400 --> 0:08:18.720 It doesn't have a massive arms industry, but it has one, 0:08:18.960 --> 0:08:22.120 and it has the support of nations with sizable arms industries, right, 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:24.560 So we are not talking about this part. We are 0:08:24.600 --> 0:08:27.440 going to talk about the aspects of Ukrainian irregular naval 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:31.200 warfare that are some guys that are hobbyists building shit. Yeah, 0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:33.719 this is not that part yet. But I think this 0:08:34.120 --> 0:08:36.320 information is kind of significant and that it shows the 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:39.200 tactical use of anti ship cruise missiles and their ability 0:08:39.200 --> 0:08:42.800 to significantly shape an operational environment even when the country 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:45.920 using them has minimal conventional naval assets of their own. 0:08:46.200 --> 0:08:48.240 It is largely through the use of these missiles that 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:50.680 Ukraine has been able to reopen their black sea ports. 0:08:51.240 --> 0:08:54.400 That matters to people seeking to understand both this conflict 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:56.920 and the future of unconventional naval warfare. I mean, I 0:08:56.920 --> 0:08:58.960 guess you could say this is the future of conventional 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:02.479 naval warfare, but think we're still leaning on the unconventional 0:09:02.520 --> 0:09:04.240 side at the moment, at least in terms of how 0:09:04.520 --> 0:09:07.040 doctrine is changing as a result of this. So maybe 0:09:07.040 --> 0:09:10.319 I should update how we're defining this. But for our 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:13.200 purposes as people unlikely to have access to cruise missiles 0:09:13.240 --> 0:09:16.559 but significantly likely to find ourselves waging an unconventional war 0:09:16.640 --> 0:09:19.400 than having cruise missiles, it's more relevant to look at 0:09:19.440 --> 0:09:22.040 the new weapons systems Ukraine has developed that have helped 0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:25.600 them lock down the Black Sea Fleet using civilian hobbyists. 0:09:25.640 --> 0:09:29.800 And this is where we get to drones. Ukraine's conventional 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:32.920 aerial drones are a mix of actual military hardware. I'm 0:09:32.920 --> 0:09:36.840 talking about stuff like the Bairaktar, the Turkish drone, which 0:09:36.880 --> 0:09:38.960 is like kind of like the Predator, all right, it's 0:09:38.960 --> 0:09:42.200 like an actual military product. But the majority in terms 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:45.760 of numbers of drones that Ukraine is fielding are civilian drones, 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:49.120 or at least drones that started out a civilian technology. 0:09:49.160 --> 0:09:51.439 A lot of these are now built to be military, 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:53.959 but they're still based on these designs that started with 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:57.640 people hacking and cobbling together civilian drones and outside of 0:09:57.720 --> 0:10:00.200 naval stuff. Prior to the war, there had been a 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:03.080 lot of veterans and hobbyists who were veterans trying to 0:10:03.080 --> 0:10:06.079 convince the Ukrainian military that it needed to adopt drone 0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:08.600 warfare on a large scale, the kind of drone warfare 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:11.480 that you can do with these these less expensive drones, 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:14.080 and they received a lot of pushback until the war 0:10:14.120 --> 0:10:16.160 started and these guys just took to the field and 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:20.680 started fucking murking Russian armed units and infantry and killing 0:10:20.720 --> 0:10:23.800 generals and shit. And now Ukraine has integrated in a 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:26.760 way that everyone is going to follow. Like Ukrainian like 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:29.880 battalions have like companies now that are drone assault companies 0:10:29.920 --> 0:10:31.680 and like line battalions, and. 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:36.040 Within infantry you have people used artillery eating transport zebibas. 0:10:36.320 --> 0:10:38.760 Yes, all over. They have set a goal for this 0:10:38.840 --> 0:10:41.160 year producing at least a million and ideally more like 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:43.600 two million drones, and at least from what I read, 0:10:43.600 --> 0:10:45.720 that looks like very plausible. And most of these are 0:10:45.760 --> 0:10:48.600 quite small, right, but that doesn't mean obviously ineffective. 0:10:48.840 --> 0:10:50.240 I know they buy a lot of their drones in 0:10:50.280 --> 0:10:53.680 the UK because the UK has consistently kicked itself in 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:56.520 the nuts when it comes to like breaxit, and so 0:10:56.840 --> 0:10:59.280 the pound is significantly weaker, and so they're able to 0:10:59.280 --> 0:11:01.320 get the drones cheap a price and then drive them 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:04.840 all the way across. Yeah, people who've done that. I 0:11:04.880 --> 0:11:06.600 was going to go join them, but never wait it out. 0:11:06.880 --> 0:11:10.680 Yeah, And you know there are a number of different 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:15.080 like these drones earlier in the war had an easier 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:17.960 time being effective and causing casualties in the Russians. Then 0:11:18.000 --> 0:11:20.760 later this is something that you know, kind of the 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:24.360 hooplaw and support which I think is necessary that Ukraine gets. 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:27.600 Lead some people to discount the degree to which Russian 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:30.480 forces have adapted and gotten smarter. And one of the 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:32.800 ways in which they've adapted and gotten smarter is in 0:11:32.920 --> 0:11:35.320 blocking drones and using drones of their own. You know, 0:11:35.360 --> 0:11:37.040 one of the stories the last couple of weeks is 0:11:37.080 --> 0:11:41.160 that Russia has succeeded in carrying out strikes on advanced 0:11:41.200 --> 0:11:45.720 weapons systems like samsites deep in Ukrainian territory. They've extended 0:11:45.760 --> 0:11:48.320 their kill chain beyond what they used to be capable of, 0:11:48.360 --> 0:11:51.839 and that's because they've adapted. They're also adapted with less 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:55.600 efficacy at blocking drones and attacks on naval vessels. Some 0:11:55.640 --> 0:11:57.160 of this has been kind of funny. I want to 0:11:57.160 --> 0:12:00.360 read a quote from a Business Insider article here. Russia 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:02.959 is painting silhouettes on naval vessels on land to try 0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:06.200 and trick Ukraine, which keeps destroying its warships. In an 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:09.000 intelligence update on Wednesday, the UK Ministry of Defense said 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:11.360 that silhouettes of vessels have also been painted on the 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:15.280 side of K's probably to confuse the uncrude aerial vehicle operators. 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:18.400 They showed there's some images of this. They don't seem 0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:21.760 convincing to me. I don't know if I think this 0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:22.520 is working. 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:27.320 This is great. I love this. Have a cardboard navy nags. 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:31.000 Yeah, it's very bugs bunny. Yes, they're not working as 0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:31.959 well as bugs would. 0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:33.959 More like a hole in the side of the cliff 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:35.959 face and crushing. 0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:39.679 Into it, keeps throwing at it. It's very funny. I 0:12:39.679 --> 0:12:42.760 mean obviously they just Ukraine just sank like or damn 0:12:42.800 --> 0:12:45.000 it badly damaged four boats. So I don't think this 0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:47.920 is I haven't seen evidence this is working well. Their 0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:50.560 actual like jamming efforts have been much more successful. 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:53.880 Right, Yeah, they always will be on civilian One of 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.400 the thing that's really interesting compared to me and is 0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:59.240 that Ukraine tends to rely on modified off the shelf 0:12:59.280 --> 0:13:02.160 civilian drone. Right your dji is that kind of thing 0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:07.160 in Mianma because of where a lot of the PDFs are. 0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:10.000 Because but they increasingly do control the borders, but they 0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:13.880 haven't always. They have been making their own drones. The 0:13:13.880 --> 0:13:16.160 group called Federal Wings you can find them on telegram, 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:19.360 who make their own drones and I think those seem 0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:24.560 to be less. The Jammas that the sac that the 0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:29.120 Tamadoor has are Chinese made like Jamma rifles. You see 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.160 them all the time in captured weapon cases, but they 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:34.560 don't seem to be having as much impact on these 0:13:34.600 --> 0:13:36.280 homemade drones, which is really interesting. 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:40.120 Yeah. Yeah, and it's you know, I've mentioned a couple 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:42.680 of times we're doing this in part because the odds 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:46.320 that people listening might be involved in an irregular conflict 0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:49.600 are not zero. You know what I think about when 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:51.920 I say that is not that there's high odds for 0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:55.400 any individual person fighting themselves in that situation, but there is, 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:57.480 given the number of people who listen to this podcast, 0:13:57.600 --> 0:14:00.680 probably someone who is not currently involved in conflict that 0:14:00.720 --> 0:14:03.360 will find themselves that way in the future. And I 0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:04.840 based that in part on the fact that all of 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:07.240 our friends in Myanmar who are currently fighting a war 0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:10.480 were a couple of years ago delivery drivers and you know, 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:13.400 playing pubg online and not really thinking they would wind 0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:14.320 up as insurgents. 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:16.360 Yeah. I've spoken to a number of people who are 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:19.880 currently fighting on in Mianma who have listened to our 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:23.760 Meanma podcast and realized the capacity of three D printing, Yeah, 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:26.920 to be very useful and so like, even in that sense, 0:14:27.080 --> 0:14:29.200 it's already happening. But yeah, don't know one in Memma, 0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:33.440 Like many of them said, their entire combat experiences playing 0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:36.480 pubg Yeah, now they're murking ships. 0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:39.320 Yeah. So anyway, it bears thinking about this stuff. And 0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:42.560 this brings me back to Ukraine's irregular drone warfare units, 0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:44.520 which again a lot of these guys started out as 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:48.240 civilian enthusiasts who expanded responded to the outbreak or at 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:52.280 least expansion of hostilities by expanding their hobby into a 0:14:52.320 --> 0:14:55.000 real world military effort that had a real world effect. 0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:58.160 Civilian drones were crucial in the Battle of Kiev, allowing 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:00.440 Ukraine to do severe damage to that mass of Russian 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:03.280 armored column heading towards the city and providing intel that 0:15:03.320 --> 0:15:06.480 led to the assassination of multiple general level officers. So 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:09.320 it is perhaps not surprising that Ukraine looked to the 0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:11.760 same group of volunteer hobbyists when it came time to 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:14.760 expand their naval arsenal. And there's a really good article 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:18.600 I found in CNN by Sebastian Shukla, Alex Marcott, and 0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:21.400 Daria Tarasova. And I actually want to give you the 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:23.120 title of this article. Yeah, I'll try to thriller in 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:26.880 the show notes is exclusive rare access to Ukraine's sea drones, 0:15:26.960 --> 0:15:29.520 part of Ukraine's fight back in the Black Sea. Haven't 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:31.360 really seen the word fight back us that way, but 0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:32.880 there you go. So I'm going to read a quote 0:15:32.880 --> 0:15:37.080 from that article. A government link Ukrainian fundraising organization called 0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:40.000 United twenty four has sourced money from companies and individuals 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:42.160 all around the world, pooling funds to disperse it to 0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:45.360 a variety of developers and initiatives from defense to soccer matches. 0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:48.560 The entire outfit is very security conscious, insisting on strict 0:15:48.560 --> 0:15:51.440 guidelines on filming and revealing identities. Those who see in 0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:53.280 and met with declined to give their full names or 0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:56.080 even their ranks within Ukraine's armed forces. On a creaky 0:15:56.080 --> 0:15:58.840 wooden jetty, a camouflaged sea drone pilot says he wants 0:15:58.880 --> 0:16:01.280 to go by shark. In front of him is a long, 0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:05.440 black hardshell briefcase. He unveils a bespoke multi screened mission control, 0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:09.040 essentially an elaborate gaming center combined complete with levers, joysticks, 0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:11.400 a monitor, and buttons that have covers over switches that 0:16:11.440 --> 0:16:15.520 shouldn't accidentally be knocked with labels like blast. The developer 0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:17.480 of the drone, who asked to remain anonymous, said their 0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:19.720 work on sea drones only began once the war started. 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:22.000 It was very important because we did not have many 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:24.760 forces to resist the maritime state Russia, and we needed 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:26.840 to develop something of our own because we didn't have 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:31.880 the existing capabilities. So again, these are hobbyist design I mean, 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:34.160 this guy's not really a hobbyist in anymore, but that's 0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:36.760 how he started. He's only not a hobbyist because the 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.400 military recognized the value of what he was doing. And 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:42.320 the current iterations of this sea drone weigh a little 0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:45.720 over two thousand pounds with an explosive six hundred and 0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:48.880 sixty one pound payload, a five hundred mile range and 0:16:48.920 --> 0:16:51.160 a max speed of fifty miles per hour. That is 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:55.600 a significant weapons system. Yeah, multiple sea drones have been 0:16:55.680 --> 0:16:57.640 used to strike Russian assets in the Black Sea, and 0:16:57.720 --> 0:17:01.120 drones were involved in a successful attack that severely damaged 0:17:01.160 --> 0:17:05.280 the Kirch Bridge last July, rendering it impassable since until September. 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:07.760 So these have had a real battlefield effect and they 0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:10.639 probably will continue to do so. The developer of these 0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:13.800 drones told CNN these drones are a completely Ukrainian production. 0:17:13.920 --> 0:17:16.160 They are designed, drawn and tested here. It's our own 0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:19.200 production of holes, electronics and software. More than fifty percent 0:17:19.200 --> 0:17:22.040 of the production of equipment is here in Ukraine. And 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:25.320 that's really significant because you know, I think we're all 0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:28.760 aware of the difficulty Ukraine has had getting weaponry lately 0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:31.880 from the West as a result of fucking around in Congress, 0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:34.760 and so it is a necessity for them to be 0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:38.000 able to develop weapon systems like this that can interdict 0:17:38.040 --> 0:17:40.840 and counteract more advanced and expensive weapon systems and can 0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:43.879 be produced indigenously. You know, I don't think we have 0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:48.240 seen a mass suicide boat attack. I'm interested in what 0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:51.879 happens when we do, like with more significant numbers than 0:17:51.880 --> 0:17:55.480 we've seen deployed. I kind of wonder the degree to 0:17:55.480 --> 0:17:57.440 which the Russians have gotten good at spotting this stuff. 0:17:57.600 --> 0:17:59.320 I've come across at least a couple of stories of 0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:02.000 these boats like that destroyed on approach. So they certainly 0:18:02.040 --> 0:18:04.080 don't always work or even a majority of the time. 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:06.040 But given the cost of these things, they don't have 0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:08.520 to get through the majority of the time, very much 0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:12.560 worth it right now. In that interview with The New 0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:17.080 York Times, Admiral Najpapa caution that Ukraine is still outgunned 0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:19.639 in the Black Sea. Even though the Russians no longer 0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:23.640 have supremacy, they still have air superiority. They are still 0:18:23.640 --> 0:18:26.320 able to launch from the sea long range missiles at 0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:31.040 Ukrainian targets, including civilian targets. So this is not again 0:18:31.080 --> 0:18:33.719 a situation that should be portrayed as them having their 0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:36.600 own way. Their ability to kind of interdict the sea 0:18:36.640 --> 0:18:39.440 has been the primary effects of it have been number one, 0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:42.160 the reopening of trade in the Black Sea, and earlier 0:18:42.200 --> 0:18:44.959 in the war, by locking down the ability of these 0:18:45.040 --> 0:18:47.320 landing ships to put more troops on ground and by 0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:49.840 doing damage to the Kurch Bridge, they were able to 0:18:49.960 --> 0:18:54.120 slow Russian reinforcements in Russian materiel from entering the war 0:18:54.240 --> 0:18:56.680 zone in order to and this aided in some of 0:18:56.720 --> 0:19:00.600 the advances, particularly in areas like Carson. At this moment, 0:19:00.640 --> 0:19:03.960 the situation has changed because again the Russians aren't just 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:06.160 kind of like sitting around doing the same thing over 0:19:06.200 --> 0:19:08.960 and over again, or at least not always, and we 0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:10.960 don't tend to talk as much about successes on the 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:13.000 Russian side of things, but that is an important part 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:15.240 of the story. And one of the things the Russians 0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:17.640 have done is kind of acknowledge that the Black Sea 0:19:17.680 --> 0:19:21.520 Fleet may not be a fleet in being forever and 0:19:21.680 --> 0:19:24.880 certainly cannot be relied upon to handle everything they initially 0:19:24.920 --> 0:19:27.800 thought it would handle. And so Russian engineers spent a 0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:31.240 significant period of time building a sizeable new railroad that 0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:35.160 connects Rostov and southern Russia to Mariopol and occupied southern Ukraine. 0:19:35.440 --> 0:19:38.880 This has allowed them to get high volume shipments into 0:19:38.920 --> 0:19:43.040 the area and supply troops to the area along Ukraine's 0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:47.000 southern front without relying on that bridge or relying on 0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:47.840 naval landings. 0:19:47.920 --> 0:19:48.120 Right. 0:19:48.920 --> 0:19:50.960 So the fact that Ukraine has been able to take 0:19:51.000 --> 0:19:53.720 out for landing ships recently is good. That's a win 0:19:53.840 --> 0:19:56.960 for Ukraine. It reduces Russian capability, but it is not 0:19:57.080 --> 0:19:58.879 half the same effect that it would have had, for example, 0:19:58.880 --> 0:20:03.280 two years earlier. Yeah, because Russia has also evolved, and 0:20:03.359 --> 0:20:06.040