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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, joining.

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Speaker 2: Us in studio Lizzie Saunders today. Okay, forget about all

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Speaker 2: the equity discussion. I want to know the act of

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Speaker 2: your Twitter feed. Yesterday your Twitter feed looked like the

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Speaker 2: Federal Reserve analyzing economic data. It was a rock star

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Speaker 2: feed of like fifteen studies of GDP and the dynamics

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Speaker 2: into the equity market. Are you doing that in your

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Speaker 2: spare time?

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Speaker 3: Well, I'm not creating most of the charts. You know,

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Speaker 3: that's Kevin's domain.

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Speaker 1: If I had to create, would be.

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Speaker 2: You know, from the Bloomberg terminals with crayon.

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Speaker 3: So thankfully I've got a great pair of folks with

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Speaker 3: Kevin and Adrian who do the charts. But you know,

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Speaker 3: there are there are days where weeks happen, and this

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Speaker 3: week is one of those unbelievable weeks.

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Speaker 2: And I got breakfast at Sarah Bass in Central Park,

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Speaker 2: South today and do like a four hour conversation on

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Speaker 2: this moment. At hand, I got bran crewed under sixty

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Speaker 2: dollars A barrel global slowdown? US slowdown? Is that what

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Speaker 2: you model in?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think what we're seeing now is there was

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Speaker 3: a lot of debate in the onset of the escalation

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Speaker 3: of the trade war as to whether the growth hit

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Speaker 3: would come first or the inflation pop would come first.

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Speaker 3: And it looks like the growth hit maybe coming first.

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Speaker 1: So Liz, we've got the S and P five hundred.

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Speaker 1: I mean that good news bad news, and bad news

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Speaker 1: is were down ten percent from the high early in

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Speaker 1: the year, but the good news is were ten percent

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Speaker 1: higher from the bottom. What do you make of this?

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Speaker 1: What do you think we should be doing here?

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Speaker 3: I think what we're seeing in the month of April,

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Speaker 3: particularly since the low, is a sign that the retail

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Speaker 3: trader is still very active. They're still in the by

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Speaker 3: the dip mentality. You've got a tech back and the

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Speaker 3: leaderboard on a month to date basis, even though it's

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Speaker 3: toward the bottom on a year to date baseis vand

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Speaker 3: Track tracks what retail traders are doing. And that's in

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Speaker 3: start contrast to hedge funds and other institutions and CTAs

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Speaker 3: that have been going more risk off. And then when

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Speaker 3: you see something, you know Goldman Sachs has those great

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Speaker 3: indexes and boxes of baskets, and their Meme stock basket

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Speaker 3: is soaring in the last month too. Another proxy for

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Speaker 3: retail traders.

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Speaker 1: What do you make here of earnings? Because we're almost

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Speaker 1: halfway through the earning cycle. I see a lot of

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Speaker 1: companies probably doing what I would do, which is like,

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Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on at there, so I'm

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Speaker 1: going to pull my guidance or give you some ranges

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Speaker 1: or some scenarios. What are you taking away from earnings?

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Speaker 3: I think companies have put themselves into time out, you know,

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Speaker 3: earning so far for first quarter a little bit better

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Speaker 3: than expected, not quite the beat rate that we've seen

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Speaker 3: over the last year. So but that's through March data.

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Speaker 3: So it's the it's the guidance or lack thereof that

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Speaker 3: I think is really important. And it is starting to

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Speaker 3: feel a little bit like the early stages of the pandemic,

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Speaker 3: when at that time you've had a record percentage of

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Speaker 3: companies ships got and solved together.

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Speaker 2: Is institutional under owned in the MEGS seven that retail

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Speaker 2: owns up to their eyeballs.

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Speaker 3: In many cases yes, because of certain funds requirements that

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Speaker 3: they have a max on the amount they can hold

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Speaker 3: percentage wise in any individual stock. Even some of the

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Speaker 3: sector exchange traded funds are limited are limited, so they

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Speaker 3: they thereby default can't get couldn't have developed the same

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Speaker 3: concentration problem as what was embedded in cap weighted indexes.

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Speaker 2: Our conversation with the Day and the Equity Marcus Lizzie Saunders

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Speaker 2: with us from Charles Schwab