1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen. And always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. In Pimpco 11 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:50,880 Speaker 2: in Newport Beach. I mean, in the old days, we're 12 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 2: Bill and Muhammad down at the wedge surfing. 13 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 3: I see Mohammad across the hall on television right now. 14 00:00:57,800 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 3: I'm exciting much. 15 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 2: Pimco Nexus here. Do you guys surf out of pimp. 16 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 3: I can't swim. I have a place in the Caribbean. 17 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 3: I have a place in the Caribbean, Turks and Caicos, 18 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 3: and I have to wear a life jacket anytime the 19 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 3: water is above five foot eleven. He's a concrete jungle. 20 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 3: Any anyone from New York's and Coca. It's all concrete. 21 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 3: I learned to swim in a fourth above ground pool 22 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:28,319 Speaker 3: that's twelve feet long, so I really could. 23 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: Paul Saves, let's go to the bonds here. 24 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 4: I mean, for the longest time, we had no interest 25 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 4: in talking to the PIMPCO people. Interest rates were zero. 26 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 4: Now we can can't even get a phone call return 27 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 4: because everybody wants to talk about bonds here, Tony. We've 28 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:44,320 Speaker 4: got real interest rates out there. There is some significant 29 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 4: carry here for a lot of people. What's kind of 30 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:49,640 Speaker 4: thirty thousand foot view from your perspective at PIMCO, What 31 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 4: are you telling clients to do with their fix to 32 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 4: come investments? 33 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 3: Well, it's like a nirvana for an active bond manager. 34 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 3: It's like a global bond buffet. There's so much to do. 35 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 3: It hasn't been in a global bond market in a 36 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 3: long time because, as you said, interest rates will low, 37 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 3: and they will low everywhere in the twenty tens near zero, 38 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 3: pin near zero, so there wasn't much to do. Now 39 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 3: there's so many things moving around like butterflies. Just simply 40 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:14,640 Speaker 3: take your net, try to find the good ones and 41 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:18,120 Speaker 3: put them in your collection. So we'd say that drop 42 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 3: lower your fears and anxieties. First, I'd say there's three 43 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:24,799 Speaker 3: things not to do. One, don't try to time the market. 44 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 3: Yields are high, they look very good, historically very good 45 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:32,639 Speaker 3: versus expected inflation in the twos and versus what's typical volatility. 46 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:35,800 Speaker 3: So I'd say, generally speaking, you want to be enamored 47 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 3: by the bond market opportunities today and lock in today's 48 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:41,639 Speaker 3: indust rates. It's total return time. It's time to think 49 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 3: about something beyond the yield potential price gains, and that's 50 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:48,360 Speaker 3: what total return strategies are. And that could be and 51 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 3: I don't mean a fund, but I mean the idea 52 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 3: of potential gains and prices is what you want. And 53 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 3: to put those yields higher, the returns higher. 54 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:57,919 Speaker 4: So where do I go, Tony? I mean I could 55 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,240 Speaker 4: just go right outside right now and get it two 56 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 4: year treasury at four point eight percent? 57 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: Do I do that? 58 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 4: Or do I go out and maybe take some more 59 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 4: credit risk here? 60 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:07,239 Speaker 1: How are you guys thinking about? 61 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 3: Well, intermediate maturities are probably the sweet spot and the 62 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 3: Bloomberg aggregate, which is a compilation of lots of bonds. 63 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 3: It's sort of a market cap weighted index has about 64 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 3: forty percent US treasuries, twenty five percent agency mortgage backed securities, 65 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 3: and twenty five percent corporate BONDZI. The average maturity on that, 66 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 3: or duration and fancy bond language lingo, is around six 67 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 3: seven years now. I often call those maturities, especially the 68 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 3: five year, the long bond of the short end. And 69 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 3: if you think the Federal Reserve is going to be 70 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 3: lowering short term interest rates, a two year, of course 71 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,640 Speaker 3: will rally, but not as much as the five year will, 72 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 3: and so that'll really get moving when the Fed. 73 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,120 Speaker 2: Does my chart of the year right now, I haven't 74 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 2: decided yet, and somebody gave it to me. Thank you 75 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 2: out on Twitter. I'm stealing it from you. Is the 76 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 2: yield to worst the old Lehman Barclays now Bloomberg index 77 00:03:56,280 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 2: the global yield to worst tony it's about sevens and 78 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 2: deviations off the Voker Great Moderation. We've had this shift 79 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 2: in the bond market. Do we recover to some form 80 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 2: of trend of the Great moderation? Or are we resetting 81 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 2: a new. 82 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 3: Vector of the bond market thinks it's the new vector 83 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 3: looking at so future overnight futures, I think the likelihood 84 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 3: is that interest rates that the twenty tens is the 85 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 3: wrong analog for thinking about the future, meaning that it's 86 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 3: more likely that we go back to the yields of 87 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:33,839 Speaker 3: past the past than we do the twenty tens, but 88 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 3: not as high as the market's price. The market thinks 89 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,479 Speaker 3: the FED won't lower as possibly less than four the 90 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 3: decade Closelue. 91 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 2: The real solution here, which is iconic in your book, folks, 92 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 2: is twelve vendred pages only some of the tales Reddit Tony. 93 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 2: The loop here is the x axis solves everything. Time 94 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 2: will heal the return to wherever that yield. Yes. 95 00:04:57,600 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 3: In fact, the simple ideas that the stated yield is 96 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 3: of course the likely return. So if you see on 97 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:10,159 Speaker 3: the Bloomberg aggregate five and an eighth five percent, that's 98 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 3: likely to be your return over five years, as the 99 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,159 Speaker 3: starting yield is the major determinant of your future returns. 100 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 3: There are things that could happen, could sprinkle in some 101 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 3: outph and such, but that's the likely story. And given 102 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,559 Speaker 3: the now, here's really the most important thing to think about. 103 00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 3: Price stability and the FED credibility the ability to knock 104 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 3: the inflation rate down if you think it's going to 105 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,719 Speaker 3: get the inflation rate into the twos. A yield of 106 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 3: five historically relative to that is very good. Now, remember 107 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 3: what Chair Powell said recently was X would you be 108 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 3: satisfied with inflation of three percent? He said, you shouldn't 109 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 3: use the word satisfied and three percent in the same sentence. 110 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 3: And you should believe. And here's the adage, don't fight 111 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 3: the Fed. Don't fight the FED means believing in its 112 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 3: eventual success it will be able to get the inflation 113 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 3: rate below three percent and keep it below. And it 114 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 3: is already for the gauge of churn. 115 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:00,920 Speaker 2: We don't care. What's to pretty wild? Did you think? 116 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 2: Does she think we're going to get to two point xx? 117 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 2: Like Clarendon? 118 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 3: They the economics team does. And I give you one 119 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:10,159 Speaker 3: really strong reason to think this. And I was reading 120 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 3: back at Irving Fisher nineteen thirty three, Dead Deflation Theory. 121 00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:16,599 Speaker 2: Of Depression Fisher, Irving Fisher, Fisher. 122 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:21,279 Speaker 3: Irving Fish, trying to understand the Great Depression. The key 123 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 3: is loan growth. In the end, banks are factories. They 124 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,280 Speaker 3: make money. They're the only entities that can private credit 125 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 3: entities slash money around that was already in the system. 126 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 3: And long growth in the United States since the bank 127 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 3: stress of twenty twenty three really meager two percent in 128 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 3: Europe flat to negative for the past year and a half. 129 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 3: You can't have strong spending in the long run with 130 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:43,479 Speaker 3: note with the factories not printing money. 131 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:45,640 Speaker 2: I got, I got thirty seconds. Can you put Phil 132 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 2: Knight into this or Chicago, if you're Fisher, can we 133 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 2: get Knight or Humping into this? 134 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:51,640 Speaker 1: Just do it. 135 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:56,479 Speaker 3: I guess invest in bonds, lock in these swimming cast 136 00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 3: Please someone help me. I can't I do the doggy paddle. 137 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 3: Within seconds of reaching Lisa took. 138 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 2: Me from a beginner to an advanced. 139 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 3: Interviewing red I wear a life jackets six feet out 140 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 3: in the water. 141 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 2: We got to work on it. Anthony Crescenzi, thank you 142 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 2: so much. Thank You's with Pimco. Smart stuff there and yield, 143 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 2: and we'll get Tiffany Wilding on to straighten out the 144 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 2: Pimpko dialog. Now is our most important interview of the day. 145 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 2: Stop what you're doing, and we're going to do this 146 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 2: very carefully. Lindsay Piegs works for Stifil outlier. I'm kidding, 147 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 2: that's an economic firm out in the Midwest. And Lindsay 148 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 2: has staked the ground. If this is a FED, it's 149 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 2: gonna be higher for longer, and even raise rates. Lindsay 150 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 2: an update and your research notes it's stephel. Do you 151 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:57,679 Speaker 2: still believe that your own Powell will need to raise 152 00:07:57,720 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 2: interest rates? 153 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 5: I think right now, looking at the inflationary environment, it's 154 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 5: clear that inflation is very sticky and will likely remain 155 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:11,559 Speaker 5: noticeably above the two percent target for quite some time now. 156 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 5: The Committee should take that as an indication that they 157 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 5: stop short of a sufficiently restrictive level and take further action, 158 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 5: meaning re engage in rate hikes. But Tom, I'm not 159 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 5: confident that they will listening to the latest message. It 160 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 5: feels as if they'd rather remain on the sidelines, keeping 161 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 5: this current elevated level of rates in place and wait 162 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:35,199 Speaker 5: for the improvement to happen more organically. 163 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:37,839 Speaker 2: The real rate, the ten year real rates would I 164 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 2: use Lindsay, I'm sure you've got stuff better than me. 165 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 2: Two point zero eight percent right now, it didn't move 166 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,680 Speaker 2: all that much off this inflation nirvana of the last 167 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 2: ten days. Where are the tip points? Where's the bracket? 168 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 2: If you will around the real rate, that will force 169 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 2: the Fed's. 170 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 5: Hand, that's a good question, because we didn't see much movement, 171 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:04,439 Speaker 5: even with the market cheering that cooler than expected CPI number, 172 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 5: And given the fact that I don't see inflation moving much, 173 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 5: in fact, nominal rates I think are pretty much range 174 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 5: bound at this point. It's difficult to say what the 175 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:19,440 Speaker 5: threshold of pressure will be on the Fed because the 176 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 5: Fed has been very clear that they're focused on policy easing. 177 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 5: So unless we saw a material backup in inflation, and 178 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:30,199 Speaker 5: I don't mean one tens of a percentage point, it 179 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 5: would probably be in the range of half a percentage point, 180 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:37,439 Speaker 5: if not more. Only then would the Fed really feel 181 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 5: as if they're backed up into a corner to take 182 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 5: further action to re engage. They're going to fight that 183 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 5: prospect as much as possible as it forces them to 184 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 5: admit a second policy error on the back end after 185 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 5: a first round policy error of holding crisis level accommodation 186 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 5: in place well passed it was appropriate waiting at those 187 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:00,040 Speaker 5: low levels till March of twenty. 188 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:04,560 Speaker 4: T lindsay, if the Fed does stay consistent here at 189 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 4: these levels in terms of the rates, is that going 190 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 4: to be enough to slow down inflation? Will that be 191 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 4: perhaps enough to push this economy into maybe a recession, 192 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:15,280 Speaker 4: which will certainly take care of inflation. 193 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 5: Well, I do think that at these rates we're going 194 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 5: to continue to lose momentum. We've already seen the economy 195 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 5: slow from five percent to three percent let's call it 196 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 5: at year end, to sub two percent at the start 197 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 5: of the year, but quarter to quarter volatility aside. I 198 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:34,360 Speaker 5: do expect the US economy to remain in positive territory 199 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:38,959 Speaker 5: for twenty twenty four, bouncing around a two ish percent pace. 200 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:42,120 Speaker 5: That's not enough to bring down inflation in of itself. 201 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:46,559 Speaker 5: But that being said, momentum is waning. Consumers are feeling pressure, 202 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 5: businesses are feeling the weight of higher costs, higher borrowing costs. Now, 203 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 5: at this point, consumers are still spending, businesses are still investing. 204 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 5: But again it's that second derivative to client, it's that 205 00:10:57,480 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 5: loss of momentum. So the bigger question is where do 206 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:03,199 Speaker 5: we go as we turn the calendar page into twenty 207 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:06,199 Speaker 5: twenty five, and if we continue to see this loss 208 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:10,720 Speaker 5: of momentum with growth slowing to maybe a non accelerating pace, 209 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 5: or at least falling below the bare minimum that you 210 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:17,560 Speaker 5: would expect for a developed economy, while at that point, 211 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 5: if the FED is still tolerating above target inflation, my 212 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:25,560 Speaker 5: bigger concern is not a recession or a downturn, but 213 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 5: a period of stagflation, slow growth, elevated prices. That's going 214 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:34,000 Speaker 5: to make it very difficult for the FED to stimulate 215 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 5: the economy and get us back onto a longer term 216 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:42,440 Speaker 5: trajectory of prosperity. Given this conundrum of low growth, high inflation, 217 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 5: that really leaves traditional monetary policy metrics less than robust 218 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 5: in terms of their impact on the economy. 219 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 1: He Lindzui. 220 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:55,959 Speaker 4: This week, we also got a weaker than expected retail 221 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:58,600 Speaker 4: sales number. Some folks are telling me, don't worry about it. 222 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:02,200 Speaker 4: We had some good sales numbers out of Walmart yesterday. 223 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 4: What's your take on this consumer well? 224 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:09,680 Speaker 5: Certainly exacerbating the market's optimism for nearer term rate cuts 225 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:13,680 Speaker 5: was that softer than expected consumer spending report, because the 226 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 5: prospect of slower inflation is certainly more convincing when domestic 227 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:22,079 Speaker 5: demand appears to be slowing in tandem. But I'm not 228 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:25,120 Speaker 5: necessarily convinced that that's what we're seeing, a material slow 229 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 5: down in the consumer as the annual pace still remains 230 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 5: very solid. So yes, month to month volatility we are 231 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 5: seeing as consumers shift the groups of services in their basket, 232 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 5: but on an annual basis, three percent is still indicative 233 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:41,200 Speaker 5: of a very solid, resilient consumer. 234 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 2: I agree with you completely, lindsay A really important question. 235 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 2: If we get a pigs in market and inflation is 236 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 2: sticky and we have a two part America, do they 237 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:56,319 Speaker 2: haves the people with assets, do they benefit or are 238 00:12:56,360 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 2: they harmed by difficult inflation? 239 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 5: No, I think we continue to see a growing divide 240 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 5: between the asset holders and the non asset holders, because 241 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 5: as long as the market continues to anticipate the FED 242 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:16,079 Speaker 5: eventually cutting rates, the market eventually focused on this easing 243 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 5: policy that's going to continue to fuel these asset valuations 244 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 5: in terms of the equity markets. And then from a 245 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:25,840 Speaker 5: housing market standpoint, which is the other sizeable component of 246 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 5: growing these asset valuations, well, that comes down to a 247 00:13:29,760 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 5: simple supply and demand. And we came into this housing 248 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 5: market cycle at a multi year deficit. So just by 249 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:41,800 Speaker 5: the nature of household formation, population growth, massive flows of immigration, 250 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:45,920 Speaker 5: it's likely that we continue to see housing demand outpaced supply, 251 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 5: keeping prices elevated and again perpetuating that divide between asset 252 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:51,960 Speaker 5: holders and non asset holders. 253 00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:55,439 Speaker 2: Lindsay, thank you so much. Just brilliant, Lindsay, pegs are congratulations. 254 00:13:55,480 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 2: I can't say enough, folks. Sir Paul, along with a 255 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 2: guy named Jackson, invented modern publishing and he was determined 256 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 2: his show and Mike Bloomberg was a huge participant in 257 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 2: the show at the National Gallery in London, and it's 258 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 2: down in Brooklyn right now. You can go see Paul 259 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:20,880 Speaker 2: McCartney nineteen sixty five black and white photographs, the original. 260 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 2: They have the original copy of I Want to Hold 261 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:29,240 Speaker 2: Your Hand. But Paul McCartney changed how musicians worldwide get 262 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:32,240 Speaker 2: paid single handedly did that with a guy named Michael 263 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 2: Jackson at ATV Music years ago ATV Music, Yeah, sony 264 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 2: ATV Music. That was mister Jackson. They owned the known 265 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 2: world as we know it. This is a joy. Look 266 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 2: at Shaw darkens the door. We never speak to him 267 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:47,080 Speaker 2: because he's in LA and gets in at three am. 268 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 2: You know, the whole thing. And Paul and I are 269 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 2: really interested in like the death of Hollywood in that 270 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 2: and yesterday I got a big hug from Michael McCarty 271 00:14:57,000 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 2: over at Michael's who's iconic in californ Fournia cuisine and 272 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 2: it's where you go when you're beautiful. I was supposed 273 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 2: to go with ger today. I know, you know, girls 274 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 2: has got to be I'm there with Jumana the other day, 275 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 2: Jamana Bertucci. Michael's is old, Hollywood is old Hollywood gone. 276 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 2: Is there anybody darkening the door at McCarty's place anymore? 277 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 1: In Los Angeles? I would say that the there was 278 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 1: a there was a generation of chefs that sort of 279 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 1: typified Hollywood in the eighties, right Michael McCarty, Wolf King, Puck. 280 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 1: Those people, their restaurants are still open, They're still vibrant. 281 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 1: They definitely appeal to an older clientele. I don't think 282 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:34,960 Speaker 1: that if you were to Lisa wouldn't go, you know, 283 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 1: if you were to talk to the people running some 284 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: of the studios or maybe the new stars, because the 285 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 1: fact is most of the people running the studios in 286 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 1: Hollywood are the Michael's demographic. I mean, that's one of 287 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 1: the complaints in the business right now, is that Hollywood 288 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 1: is being run by people in their sixties and seventies, 289 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:51,960 Speaker 1: and they're not a lot of opportunities for people in 290 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:54,200 Speaker 1: their thirties and forties to have a chance to make 291 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 1: some changes. 292 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 2: Right, We've been talking about mister Ripley and you know 293 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 2: within your magnificent nos folks, look show on a high 294 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 2: ground Sunday once it come out. 295 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 1: Sunday, Sunday, three pm Pacific. 296 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 2: Do you have your interns type it or you know? 297 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 1: How's that word right? Every word? 298 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 2: Okay, we've been talking about I hope I'm pronouncing right, 299 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 2: Steven Zalien and mister Ripley. 300 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, he did. 301 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 2: Shindler's List, He's done all this. 302 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 1: Stuff, legendary screenwriter. 303 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 2: Now tell us about that person in the New Hollywood 304 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 2: that we see dying when you look at the stock prices. 305 00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 1: Well, if you think about that show, and I think 306 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 1: I'm getting this right, that show is initially set up 307 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 1: at Showtime and then when Paramount basically killed Showtime or 308 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: folded it into Paramount Plus, that the new boss of 309 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: Paramount Plus with Showtime, Chris McCarthy, who's now the co 310 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 1: CEO of Paramount, I think, decided it wasn't the best 311 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 1: fit for what they were trying to do. Strategically, look 312 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 1: black and white period piece. I get it. It doesn't 313 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 1: scream commercial and Netflix, Switch has more money than almost 314 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 1: anyone else to take some risks and pick things up. 315 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 1: Swooped in and took it. Look, I don't think that 316 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 1: show's a huge hit for that, but it certainly is 317 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:05,360 Speaker 1: beloved artistically, and we'll see if it gets a bunch 318 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 1: of Emmy nominations when those come out over the summer. 319 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:09,880 Speaker 4: So, Lucas, one of the things Tom and I talk 320 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 4: about a lot is just kind of where we go 321 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 4: here going forward from the media industry perspective, the business. 322 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:19,480 Speaker 4: I grew up in the media business. Everybody made money, 323 00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 4: everybody made money. Now those economics are really up. 324 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,400 Speaker 1: For grad very challenged. Yeah, and do you think the. 325 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 4: Traditional media companies in Hollywood? You live there, you're seeing 326 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:32,119 Speaker 4: it every day, are they prepared to make that pivot? 327 00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,439 Speaker 4: I'm thinking Paramount, I'm thinking Warner Brothers, Discovery. What's the 328 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 4: feeling in Hollywood in LA about that? 329 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 1: I mean, look, the mood is pretty dour at the moment, 330 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:46,440 Speaker 1: because you see, the word for a year or two 331 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:49,600 Speaker 1: now has been sort of efficiency and economy and trying 332 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 1: to cut back and save money. Right. You just had 333 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 1: Bob Iger come out earlier this week at an investor 334 00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 1: conference and say we spent too much money launching Disney Plus. 335 00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:00,400 Speaker 1: Now I think that's up for debate. They probably spent 336 00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 1: an appropriate amount of money. But there's no question that 337 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 1: you had a lot of companies, and especially the traditional ones, 338 00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 1: that were seeing their cable networks shrivel, and so they 339 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 1: spent all this money on streaming and they haven't been 340 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:13,199 Speaker 1: able to make it a profitable business. Then they didn't 341 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:16,119 Speaker 1: necessarily have the right approach, and so now everyone's pulling 342 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,440 Speaker 1: back and everyone is scared about that because it's much much, 343 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:21,680 Speaker 1: much harder to get a project made than it used 344 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:21,879 Speaker 1: to be. 345 00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 4: Let's talk just about Powermount. 346 00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:26,480 Speaker 1: That's the number one. 347 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 2: What happens this weekend, Lucas. 348 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:30,119 Speaker 4: I keep telling Tom five years ago, I could have 349 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 4: sold that company with three phone calls. 350 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 1: Now you can't give it away. Well, we will probably 351 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: have an update on that later this morning. 352 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 2: I listen to Lucas Wispy. 353 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 1: But you're correct that. Look, it's not the most attractive 354 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:48,679 Speaker 1: business for people, right you know, it has it's the 355 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 1: way it still makes all of its money for the 356 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 1: most part is these cable networks that are getting smaller 357 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 1: every year. It has a streaming business that's growing but 358 00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 1: doesn't make any money, and it has one of the 359 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 1: weaker film and television studios around. And so you know, 360 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 1: you've got David Ellison who has a lot of money 361 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: and father. His father has a lot of money. He's 362 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: now built a decent sized media business. He wants to 363 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:14,400 Speaker 1: buy it. I think partially because it would make skuy 364 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:17,200 Speaker 1: Dance much bigger and build in the studio, but also 365 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:19,920 Speaker 1: because there's legacy there. Most of the other folks who'd 366 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:22,160 Speaker 1: be interested, you'd, yeah, you'd be buying it almost because 367 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,800 Speaker 1: you like the history of Paramount, not because it's a 368 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 1: great business. 369 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 2: In the crushing lack of time that we have, because 370 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:30,560 Speaker 2: you refuse to get up at three am, Lucas Shaw. 371 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:34,280 Speaker 2: Does Tim Cook want to be in Hollywood? Does Jesse 372 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 2: of Amazon want to be in Hollywood? Does Satya up 373 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 2: north there in Washington? Do those tech people really want 374 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:45,160 Speaker 2: to play the Michaels lunch game. 375 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:47,920 Speaker 1: I think it depends on how you define Hollywood. So Satya, Nadella, 376 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:50,200 Speaker 1: and Microsoft they're in entertainment right, They're one of the 377 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:52,680 Speaker 1: biggest video game companies in the world. I don't think 378 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:56,040 Speaker 1: they're especially interested in the film and television business. Sort 379 00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 1: of classic Hollywood. Amazon is in it. You know, they 380 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,119 Speaker 1: have a I don't know that they're going to invest 381 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:03,400 Speaker 1: at the same level as Netflix, but you know they 382 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 1: have a bunch of sports rights. They're spending billions of 383 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 1: dollars on programming. Their prime video business is one of 384 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,359 Speaker 1: the largest in the world. Apple is sort of the 385 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:13,040 Speaker 1: big question mark. They have invested a bunch of money, 386 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:14,880 Speaker 1: but I don't think they're they're going to go buy 387 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:15,360 Speaker 1: a studio. 388 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:19,160 Speaker 2: Paul's upset is Christmas NFL football un American. 389 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 1: Why they have Christmas NBA basketball? 390 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:22,920 Speaker 2: Right? 391 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:30,120 Speaker 4: So what happens here with sports? I mean Netflix, they're 392 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 4: starting to go into sports. I mean, one could argue 393 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 4: that the future of sports revenue and the value of 394 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,159 Speaker 4: all these franchises and all these big contracts, it's going to. 395 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 1: Be paid out of Silicon Valley, not Hollywood. Well, right now, 396 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:44,720 Speaker 1: the leagues are sort of have the best of both worlds. 397 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: Right There was a while in scripted entertainment where you 398 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,159 Speaker 1: had broadcast and cable networks and streaming services and just 399 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: all this money being spent, and that's sort of where 400 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 1: we are with sports right now. You look at the NFL, 401 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 1: they're in business with CBS, NBC, ABC, Fox, Amazon, YouTube 402 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:00,919 Speaker 1: and Netflix. That's a pretty good place to be. 403 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,479 Speaker 6: The venue sports, the venue sports that just came out. 404 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 1: Oh they Yeah, I'm pretty skeptical of that business. 405 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:14,840 Speaker 2: Last question, we are a walking experiment of YouTube and 406 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 2: YouTube TV. What we're doing your Bloomberg surveillance? Yeah on 407 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 2: YouTube right now? What's the power of YouTube combined with 408 00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 2: YouTube TV five years forward? Are we going to have 409 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:27,920 Speaker 2: jobs in five years? Yeah? 410 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 1: Because you're you're you're living proof that YouTube is a 411 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 1: powerful medium. YouTube is the biggest media media company in 412 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:36,919 Speaker 1: the world and the most powerful one. 413 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:38,000 Speaker 2: Keep it up. 414 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 1: YouTube TV is also going to probably become the biggest 415 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 1: PATV distributor in this country in the next five years. 416 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 1: So yeah, I think you're you're in good hands if 417 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:46,920 Speaker 1: you're in business with you. 418 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:49,920 Speaker 2: Is it monetarizing for Google? Like, are they minting money 419 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:50,680 Speaker 2: on it every day? 420 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: I don't know that it's profitable because they spend a 421 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 1: fortune on it. They only break it. They only break. 422 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:58,520 Speaker 2: Out the Chanel dress yesterday. 423 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: Even you wise, YouTube is bigger than Netflix. You canbine 424 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 1: advertising and subscription. It's a massive business, just not as profitable. 425 00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:08,760 Speaker 2: Okay, so paramount we should pay attention this morning. 426 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 1: Is that it will be an incremental update, but it 427 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 1: will be an update incremental. 428 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:13,120 Speaker 2: And did you go to the upfronts this week? 429 00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: I went to a few of them yes. 430 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:18,399 Speaker 2: Day, Lucashaw with Mark German. All I can say, folks 431 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 2: is we have a series of newsletters out begin with 432 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,640 Speaker 2: Lucashaw and Mark German on Apple. I just can't say 433 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:28,440 Speaker 2: enough about the legit expertise he's writing it. He's got 434 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,560 Speaker 2: four interns from Pepperdine one of them one of them 435 00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:34,119 Speaker 2: is a surf stud and they're writing at Popping Up, 436 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,639 Speaker 2: getting it out Saturday or Sunday. Lucashaw, thank you for 437 00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:50,440 Speaker 2: the visiting. She's got seventy seven papers at her desk, 438 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,120 Speaker 2: its stacked up. You can barely see Lisa at five 439 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 2: am putting this together your daily look at the front pages, Lisa, 440 00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:57,880 Speaker 2: what do you got? 441 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:02,040 Speaker 6: Okay, you're gonna like this one. Cassette ta making a comeback? 442 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 5: Yes, okay. 443 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 6: I still collection those in the music because they say 444 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,199 Speaker 6: the majority is not the older generations, but it's a 445 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,639 Speaker 6: younger generation. Because shows like Stranger Things, Guardians and The 446 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 6: Galaxy that feature cassettes like in their shows and movies 447 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:19,119 Speaker 6: that's sparking that younger generation. Taylor Swift, she's sold twenty 448 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 6: one five hundred cassettes from her latest release. But you 449 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:26,760 Speaker 6: have Billie Eilish, Dua Lipa, Kendrick Lamar. They're all going to. 450 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 4: Cassette cassette players stage. 451 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:31,119 Speaker 6: That's they're finding the cassette player. But the reason why, 452 00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,960 Speaker 6: I'm like, so, what's the thing. So artists are saying 453 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,880 Speaker 6: that lower production costs Okay, new releases on vinyl can 454 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,920 Speaker 6: cost about thirty five cassettes as low as ten dollars, 455 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 6: But they're also saying cassette sales had a bigger impact 456 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 6: on chart position. I'm not sure how that plays out. 457 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 2: I mean, I get the vinyl thing. I mean I don't. 458 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 2: I don't. I'd rather listen to title or something incredibly 459 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:56,879 Speaker 2: beautifully done digital, particularly through tubes, But I get vinyl. Paul, 460 00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 2: remember the celebration when we got rid of cassettes. 461 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:04,360 Speaker 4: Well, going from a track to cassettes, well that was evolution. 462 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 4: Tucker's still using a Trex to cassettes was like unbelievable 463 00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 4: technological beside. 464 00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:15,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, and then Dolby d Dolby, Yes, Dolby Dolby Dolby 465 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 2: and the answers. It sucks. 466 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 6: I just hated when you had when it came out 467 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 6: and then you had to take your pencil and like 468 00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:22,160 Speaker 6: go like exactly. 469 00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:24,440 Speaker 2: So if I go to if I go to Brooklyn 470 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,159 Speaker 2: this week and there's going to be somebody in a 471 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:28,960 Speaker 2: two hundred dollars plaid shirt, David telling me I need 472 00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 2: to buy cassettes. 473 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:31,600 Speaker 1: You gotta buy Himura does this? 474 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,720 Speaker 2: I think it's a big take. Comes up our low 475 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 2: fight with David. 476 00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 6: Next, when you go to the airport, here's the thing 477 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:41,760 Speaker 6: and you do you bring your car? Do you take 478 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:42,640 Speaker 6: an Uber driver? 479 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 2: What do you? What do you do? 480 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:46,919 Speaker 4: Never once have I driven to the aircraft in my 481 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 4: professional life? 482 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,680 Speaker 2: Did I read? That? Is your story that it's. 483 00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:55,520 Speaker 6: Like parking is packed, people can't find spots. There's are 484 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:59,120 Speaker 6: those receive flights. Well, I know when we go sometimes 485 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 6: will bring our are because if you factor in we 486 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,720 Speaker 6: need the extra large you know, Uber. And then to 487 00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 6: go back and forth. Let's say we're going to JFK 488 00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,920 Speaker 6: or somewhere really far. It's going to cause us ridiculous, 489 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,160 Speaker 6: but it's cheaper to take the daily rate and leave 490 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:15,719 Speaker 6: it really and then you can you know, kind of 491 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 6: leave at your will. You know, you can just kind 492 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,000 Speaker 6: of go. We do it like the outside of the 493 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,639 Speaker 6: airport parking, so it's a little bit even cheaper than 494 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:27,520 Speaker 6: the actual I always wondered too, did that but. 495 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,360 Speaker 2: Are they going to raise the price or build more parts? 496 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:31,760 Speaker 6: So they're trying to build more parking, that's one of 497 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:33,960 Speaker 6: the things the airports. They're also working to install these 498 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:37,679 Speaker 6: guidance systems that help direct you to open spots so 499 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,880 Speaker 6: that people don't wind up missing their flights because that's 500 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 6: the problem. And then Memorial Days around the corner, so 501 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,920 Speaker 6: they're trying to put out this warning to people like, hey, 502 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,640 Speaker 6: you know, you better book your spot ahead of time, 503 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:48,920 Speaker 6: which you can also just don't get it. 504 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:49,800 Speaker 2: I have no idea. 505 00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:53,560 Speaker 4: That's why I learned, so you don't have to do this. 506 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,080 Speaker 2: I mean, I had no ideas. 507 00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:01,720 Speaker 6: Live five miles because you have your points on Southwest, 508 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,840 Speaker 6: which don't getting. 509 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:04,800 Speaker 1: Your points on United. 510 00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:10,000 Speaker 2: You know, I wonder if Charlie pell AT's surveillance Europe 511 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:15,359 Speaker 2: on five dollars question, Ye, I wonder pellet his opinion. 512 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:20,480 Speaker 6: Okay, TikTok is testing out sixty minute videos for its app, 513 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,640 Speaker 6: so that's going to put it in competition with YouTube, 514 00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:26,360 Speaker 6: So that's the thing that they're working on now. It's 515 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,320 Speaker 6: a big thing because longer video uploads means more competition 516 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:31,879 Speaker 6: for a lot of the streaming services. But it's not 517 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 6: clear when or when this is going to happen. It 518 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,159 Speaker 6: is kind of in this testing out phase. Is from 519 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 6: Business Insider, So it'll be interesting to see because you know, 520 00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,120 Speaker 6: we did. We've heard so much about YouTube and how 521 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:43,919 Speaker 6: you know it's at the top of of streaming. But 522 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:47,120 Speaker 6: now if TikTok starts putting out these sixty minute videos, 523 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:49,840 Speaker 6: will that start to put it in competition with the 524 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 6: other streaming services. 525 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 1: I don't know why they wouldn't. 526 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 4: Actually, I don't know why they wouldn't because the advertising 527 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:56,720 Speaker 4: dollars are out there. First of all, as you mentioned 528 00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 4: from that data we saw from Nielsen earlier this week, 529 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:03,480 Speaker 4: YouTube is a second and most visited video source in 530 00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,760 Speaker 4: the marketplace after the Walt Disney Company and all their channels. 531 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:08,840 Speaker 4: So people are really spending a ton of time on 532 00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:13,320 Speaker 4: YouTube and YouTube selling advertising against that audience. I think TikTok, 533 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 4: assuming it could stay in its current ownership, would think 534 00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:16,720 Speaker 4: about doing the same. 535 00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,800 Speaker 6: Wow, would surveillance have to go on, TikTok, we could 536 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:24,840 Speaker 6: do that. 537 00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,760 Speaker 2: Not gonna happen. Take a note, Rich, ain't gonna happen. 538 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:29,639 Speaker 2: Let's move on. 539 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:30,479 Speaker 1: Okay. 540 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,239 Speaker 6: We talked about this yesterday because I was wearing this 541 00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 6: dress when I walked in and you commented on Tommy, 542 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:39,959 Speaker 6: you said, everybody ever got a TJ Max. 543 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:41,679 Speaker 2: You know, she's not a Harper's Bazaar. 544 00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:45,439 Speaker 6: So the Wall Street Journal actually put out a story 545 00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:49,240 Speaker 6: about this whole thing, how tj X Hall's becoming this 546 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,920 Speaker 6: badge of honors. I mean, you have people like Bethany Frankel, 547 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,359 Speaker 6: you know, she's going to TJ max in there looking 548 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,000 Speaker 6: for these different things. And we're talking Valentino coach goose. 549 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:04,280 Speaker 4: Valentino prop to get the TJX it doesn't sell in Bloomingdale's, 550 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:06,960 Speaker 4: and then it would go to TGX. Maybe they're usually 551 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 4: the older model the next season if it doesn't sell 552 00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 4: in Bloomingdale. 553 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:14,720 Speaker 6: Exactly, exactly. So that's why you got my Calvin Kleine 554 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 6: dress for thirty dollars. 555 00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:16,840 Speaker 4: That is amazing. 556 00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:20,120 Speaker 2: I mean, when Cavia Mateo hour. 557 00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,879 Speaker 4: Exactly, Calvin Clin think Lisa Mitaylo's gonna be wearing my 558 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:24,280 Speaker 4: dress at thirty dollars. 559 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,360 Speaker 2: This started in Boston, and I have the clear memory 560 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:31,440 Speaker 2: of TJ Max being different, and they've become ever more different. 561 00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:35,920 Speaker 2: Like you say, and the pros Dana Telsey, Joe Feldman, 562 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:41,960 Speaker 2: Oliver Chen and others. Robert Burke's who's ginormous within retail consulting, 563 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,800 Speaker 2: they will tell you there's always been a halo around 564 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 2: TJ Max. I don't understand it. I think I was 565 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 2: in one when Nixon was president. But you know, all 566 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 2: I know is the pros say they're different. 567 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 1: Just big company. 568 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:58,520 Speaker 4: It's got one hundred and twelve billion dollar market cap. 569 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 4: It's up five percent this year. The stock is sub 570 00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 4: twenty seven percent over the past year. So it's done 571 00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:04,360 Speaker 4: well in a tough retail. 572 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 6: Yet one more, it's Marshall's, It's Home Goods. All of 573 00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:08,760 Speaker 6: them are all TJX. 574 00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,600 Speaker 2: Is you that one more? No? 575 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 6: No, I'm going to TJ maxxisque. 576 00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 1: I'll post some pictures for you. 577 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,320 Speaker 2: I think Valentino. But you know, actually I sort of 578 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,960 Speaker 2: see Celene, you know, I could see Lisa, you know 579 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:23,520 Speaker 2: Rock and Selene. 580 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:27,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, absolutely, I mean I didn't know Lisa Mateo. 581 00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 2: Lisa Mateo in charge of the newspapers on this Friday. 582 00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:36,480 Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 583 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:41,280 Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also 584 00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:45,360 Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast 585 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:49,520 Speaker 2: channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from 586 00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in 587 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:56,600 Speaker 2: New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 588 00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:00,520 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen. And always I'm Bloomber Radio, 589 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,840 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.