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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game ju us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough, no running again, so smooth, so sweet, Standard

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Speaker 1: sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is

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Speaker 1: sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop with mind? Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 1: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his

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Speaker 1: movements the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: The one is left to Wanda, wide eyed, drilled bibus

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Speaker 1: how old Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 2: Hello, eyon one, Welcome back to Wondergol Soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 2: from the Action Network, presented to you by Bet three

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Speaker 2: sixty five. My name is Michael Leebuff and joining me

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Speaker 2: for this our COPA America Group Stage Round two preview

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Speaker 2: is BJ Cunningham and together the two of us are

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Speaker 2: going to go game by game to set you up

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Speaker 2: for the second of three rounds with in Copa America.

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Speaker 2: We are recording this on Tuesday afternoon, so just just

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Speaker 2: before proovers Canada. That's my fault. I had something come up,

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Speaker 2: couldn't get to the earlier recording time. But the good

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Speaker 2: news is neither of us really have any interest in

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Speaker 2: provers Canada. So hopefully we can get to you in

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Speaker 2: time to set you up for the rest of the

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Speaker 2: matches and we can give you some actionable advice. I'm

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Speaker 2: entertaining advice to get you through these next few days

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Speaker 2: of matches. Well, we will start with Peru in Canada

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Speaker 2: Peru plus two sixty, Canada plus one fifteen at Patre

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Speaker 2: six five to the draw here plus two twenty five BJ.

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Speaker 2: We talked about Canada as a potential long shot. I

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Speaker 2: still believe in them after the Argentina match in that regard,

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Speaker 2: and that's how I'm looking at this matches. I've got

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Speaker 2: the Canadian long shot ticket and I'm just gonna.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah. I mean, I have a Peru to finished

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Speaker 1: bottom and of Canada to advance. So I think I'm

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Speaker 1: pretty well invested in both of these teams. There's really

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Speaker 1: no interest for me. You know, if you're looking for

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Speaker 1: something that you do want to play, I think Canada

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Speaker 1: over one and a half goals at plus one fifty

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Speaker 1: is a decent angle. You saw that under Marsh they

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Speaker 1: want to play in transition, they want to play more

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Speaker 1: up tempo. That first patch against Argentina had close to

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Speaker 1: four a little over four expected goals in it, and

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Speaker 1: they should be able to get at this Peru defense

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Speaker 1: that you know, by nature does play pretty passively in

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Speaker 1: a low defensive block. But the match against Chile, even

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Speaker 1: though there wasn't a lot of chances, you know, at

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Speaker 1: either end, it still was a little bit back and forth.

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Speaker 1: But you know, I mean, we'll talk about Chile in

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Speaker 1: a second. With that match against Peru, I mean, there

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Speaker 1: were forty fouls, like it was just amazed. It was

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Speaker 1: like a night fight for ninety minutes. So that's what

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Speaker 1: this could turn into. There's been some extracurricular things set

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Speaker 1: off the pitch by the Peru manager about how Canada

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Speaker 1: is like getting away with a ton of things and

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Speaker 1: being way too physical. So you may have a match

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Speaker 1: of ton of fouls. So if you want to look

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Speaker 1: at angles on terms of fouls or cards or anything

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Speaker 1: like that, this might not be a bad match to

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Speaker 1: do that. But if I were to play anything, it

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Speaker 1: would just be Canada team toll over one and a half.

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Speaker 1: But again, I'm a little too invested in both these

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Speaker 1: teams in the future perspectives, So I'm passing.

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Speaker 2: Yep, Canada. I'm seeing like one hundred and ten to

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Speaker 2: one out there on them, and I still think that

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Speaker 2: that's interesting. I obviously you need them to get something

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Speaker 2: from this game. The other Group A match, Argentina's at

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Speaker 2: the top of Group A with Peru Chile on one

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Speaker 2: point a piece after their nil nil like what you

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Speaker 2: said was a street barll and Canada is at the

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Speaker 2: foot of the table as we speak, at no points,

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Speaker 2: but they're the only one that's played Argentina. And now

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Speaker 2: the tournament favorites are taking on Chile at Chile is

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Speaker 2: plus seven hundred on the three way line, Argentina might

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Speaker 2: is two twenty five. The draw is plus three twenty.

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Speaker 2: This one taking place in the meadowlands in New Jersey.

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Speaker 2: I think this looks like a spot where Argentina rolls.

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Speaker 2: Wasn't too impressed with what we saw out Chile and

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Speaker 2: their first match.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I like, you know, the numbers of

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Speaker 1: moving on this Argentina was around minus two hundred, you know,

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Speaker 1: minus one was minus one fifteen, minus one twenty range

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Speaker 1: now and this is pretty This has been typical of

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Speaker 1: what I've been noticing for these Coke American matches, is

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Speaker 1: the favorites tend to get really steamed the closer we

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Speaker 1: get to the match. So if you want to play something,

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Speaker 1: I would suggest that if you like something, just play

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Speaker 1: it early if it involves a favorite, because generally the

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Speaker 1: money just piles in at the end on the bigger teams.

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Speaker 1: But I do like Argentina here. The thing with Chile

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Speaker 1: is that, you know I talked about the last episode

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Speaker 1: that they're a team that things tend to break down

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Speaker 1: when they reach the final third, right, they only created

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Speaker 1: one spectacle against Peru. They're a decent build up team,

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Speaker 1: like they led the South American qualifiers in late twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty three, and passes in the final third and progressive passes,

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Speaker 1: but they're likely going to be playing without the ball here.

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Speaker 1: But when they don't have the ball, they actually do

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Speaker 1: like to press high and they press very narrow, but

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Speaker 1: they're still really bad at keeping teams from playing through

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Speaker 1: the middle against them. They allowed the most counter attacking

103
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Speaker 1: shots per ninety minutes in those South American qualifiers, and

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Speaker 1: Argentina showed against Canada because Canada wanted to make the

105
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Speaker 1: match very phonetic and very transitional, that they can really

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Speaker 1: punish you in transition, not just from build up situations.

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Speaker 1: You know, they created close to three expected goals against them,

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Speaker 1: So I think this is an Argentina route here. They

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Speaker 1: have way too much attacking talent and if Chile is

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Speaker 1: actually going to press them, then that's going to cause

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Speaker 1: all sorts of problems for them. Even if they don't

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Speaker 1: they sit back. I mean Argentina, I said it before that,

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Speaker 1: but right now they're the most difficult team in the

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Speaker 1: world to be after watching some of these matches at

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Speaker 1: the Euros, Like Argentina, since the beginning of the World Cup,

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Speaker 1: so fourteen matches, they have conceded six point six expected

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Speaker 1: goals like they are an unbelievable elite defense. They have

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Speaker 1: a minus one point two expected gold differential per ninety

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Speaker 1: minutes since that timeframe, So I think this is an

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Speaker 1: absolute route here. So I like Argentina minus one and

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Speaker 1: a half at plus one twenty five. If you want

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Speaker 1: to chase bigger price, you can go Ardentina minus two

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Speaker 1: and a half. I know that they tend to shut

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Speaker 1: things down when they get ahead, but if people give

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Speaker 1: them transition opportunities, they're they're going to go for them,

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Speaker 1: right Like a lot of times when they shut matches

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Speaker 1: down it's when teams don't get too aggressively, so too aggressive.

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Speaker 1: So for Chile, I think everything's gonna come down to

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Speaker 1: their final match against Canada. So they just want to

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Speaker 1: limit the goald difference here and hopefully they maybe get

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Speaker 1: through the draw there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. I think that this is a

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Speaker 2: The minus one and a half is fine. I actually

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Speaker 2: have some interest in the next one. So that's Tuesday

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Speaker 2: wrapped up. Six pm prove Canada, nine pm Chile and Argentina.

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Speaker 2: The six pm kickoff on Wednesday is Ecuador and Jamaica.

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Speaker 2: Ecuador minus one eighty eight, Jamaica six to one, and

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Speaker 2: the draws plus two ninety. Actually, I'm gonna bet Jamaica

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Speaker 2: on the money line here. They look decent against Mexico. Really,

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Speaker 2: you know, they lost one nil. I think that a

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Speaker 2: fair score line probably would have been one one or

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Speaker 2: nil nil. They deserve to point out of that performance.

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Speaker 2: This is a must win game for both teams. Ecuador

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Speaker 2: lest to Venezuela to to one in their opener, and

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Speaker 2: I trust Jamaica here to be able to hang around

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Speaker 2: against a more talented team. And there are some match

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Speaker 2: winning players on this Jamaica roster. Whether it's Damari Gray

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Speaker 2: or Mikhael Antonio, Like, there's enough talent here that if

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Speaker 2: they do hang around, they can be dangerous. So I

150
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Speaker 2: think the gap is just not this wide. So I

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Speaker 2: like the six to one on Jamaica.

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Speaker 1: I agree, I will probably be passing on this match.

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Speaker 1: I did project it pretty close. But you know, before

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Speaker 1: the Venezuela match, my concern was, Okay, what happens if

155
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Speaker 1: Enner Valencia is injured and then they don't really have

156
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Speaker 1: much of an attack. Well, inner Valencia karate chopped some

157
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Speaker 1: guy in the twenty second minute and got a red card,

158
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Speaker 1: so you won't be playing in this match. So now

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Speaker 1: you have a lot of question marks around the Ecuador

160
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Speaker 1: attack where they just flat out do not have a striker.

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Speaker 1: You know, you can't really take away much away from

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Speaker 1: that Venezuela match. They were kind of out playing them

163
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Speaker 1: for the first twenty minutes before the red card happened,

164
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Speaker 1: and Ecuador does have some talent. But I mean Jamaica

165
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Speaker 1: defensively I thought was the most impressive thing. I mean,

166
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Speaker 1: Mexico had twenty shots, they didn't create one expected goal.

167
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Speaker 1: Like that's an incredibly inefficient performance. And it comes down

168
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Speaker 1: to the fact that they were good defending in a

169
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Speaker 1: low five to four to one and they're going to

170
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Speaker 1: do that here against Ecuador. And we've said it before,

171
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Speaker 1: but Ecuador during these South American qualifiers only average point

172
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Speaker 1: eight expected goals for ninety minutes. They take a ton

173
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Speaker 1: of shots from outside the box. So I think you

174
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Speaker 1: could see a similar performance like that, And like you said, yeah,

175
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Speaker 1: they have decent guys who can beat you in transition.

176
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Speaker 1: So I don't hate to play on Jamaica at all,

177
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Speaker 1: but for me, I will be passing, all right.

178
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Speaker 2: That brings us to Mexico and Venezuela. These two teams

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Speaker 2: both one. They're opening match one nail for Mexico overt Jamaica,

180
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Speaker 2: then the two to one for Venezuela day. Mexican side

181
00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:54,120
Speaker 2: El Tree is a plus one twenty favorites here, Venezuela

182
00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,120
Speaker 2: plus two to fifty, the draws plus two twenty five

183
00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:59,480
Speaker 2: did short. I think that that's how I would look

184
00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:01,559
Speaker 2: at this, But it's just the price isn't good enough.

185
00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:06,360
Speaker 2: This one feels very nil nilly to me. This doesn't

186
00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:09,880
Speaker 2: this looks like a would be a classic rugby match

187
00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:11,680
Speaker 2: between two sides that I don't think are going to

188
00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:15,480
Speaker 2: be too concerned with just picking up a point here

189
00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:18,560
Speaker 2: and essentially putting a ton of pressure on the other

190
00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,280
Speaker 2: two teams in the group to catch them. So I

191
00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:23,720
Speaker 2: think this is a very low event, very drab, boring.

192
00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:26,599
Speaker 2: Should be a good atmosphere as always when Mexico is

193
00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:29,440
Speaker 2: playing in these kind of matches, but not one that

194
00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:32,880
Speaker 2: I think is I'm going to look like Austria Netherlands

195
00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:34,240
Speaker 2: as we record right now.

196
00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:37,959
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean we are recording your rosters. Hopefully

197
00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:40,880
Speaker 1: they can pull us out. But yeah, so, like I

198
00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:44,360
Speaker 1: already mentioned, you know, Mexico and completely inefficient offensive performance

199
00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:48,960
Speaker 1: against Jamaica and now they're going to be without edits Nalvarez,

200
00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:51,439
Speaker 1: who's their best midfielder, and you can make an argument

201
00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:55,280
Speaker 1: their best player outside of Santiagojo Menez is the cornerstone

202
00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:59,880
Speaker 1: of keeping teams from beating you in transition, especially defending

203
00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:03,240
Speaker 1: the attackers that Venezuela has. Although they don't have much talent,

204
00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:08,520
Speaker 1: Solomon Rondon is a brute to still pin and not

205
00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:10,280
Speaker 1: allow him to get in front of you, and especially

206
00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:12,520
Speaker 1: with aerial duels, and that's something Edison Alvarez does a

207
00:10:12,520 --> 00:10:16,240
Speaker 1: really good job of. So like I did project a

208
00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:18,840
Speaker 1: little bit of value on Mexico here. I think that

209
00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,600
Speaker 1: coming into this tournament they were a little undervalued given

210
00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:24,160
Speaker 1: that they weren't bringing any of the older guys, and

211
00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:26,840
Speaker 1: their underlying metrics are still good. But now if you're

212
00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:29,360
Speaker 1: gonna if you're gonna be without I would argue your

213
00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,040
Speaker 1: most important player for the rest of the tournament. That

214
00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:33,840
Speaker 1: makes it very hard to get behind you. So for me,

215
00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:36,760
Speaker 1: it's a pass. It's too high of a price on

216
00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:38,960
Speaker 1: Venezuela for plus a half to play them at this rate.

217
00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:41,040
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm just passing.

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Speaker 2: That brings us to Panama versus Team USA Thursday, June

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Speaker 2: twenty seventh, six pm Eastern Time. As you'd expect, the

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Speaker 2: Yanks are a pretty big favorite for this one at

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Speaker 2: minus two fifty on the three way line Panama seven

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Speaker 2: to one, the dross plus season three seventy five. There

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Speaker 2: was I think there was both good and bad from

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Speaker 2: what we saw to the Americans in their opener against Bolivia.

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Speaker 2: They just it was a very much a taking care

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Speaker 2: of business, I guess kind of performance against the team

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Speaker 2: that you know they were big favorites. They got the

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Speaker 2: three points, which was most important came out with a

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Speaker 2: stormer with the goal from Christian Poolasitch got the goal

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Speaker 2: from Ballagoon as well. Like it ticked a lot of boxes,

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Speaker 2: I think, especially in the first half, but then you know,

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Speaker 2: foot off the pedal kind of stuff, I guess in

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Speaker 2: the second you would say, and this is a huge

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Speaker 2: match for both teams. Obvious Panama needs something out of

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Speaker 2: this match to stay alive. The Americans can technically just

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Speaker 2: be okay with a dry I would say, with you know,

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Speaker 2: it would be bad, but they could still technically be

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Speaker 2: okay with it, but they'll want to go into that

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Speaker 2: Uruguay match meaning needing absolutely nothing. So it feels like

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Speaker 2: a must win, a must go for it for both teams.

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Speaker 2: I think that opens things up here, which is where

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Speaker 2: you're going.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like over two and a half and minus

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Speaker 1: one ten. I've been kind of racking on what to

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Speaker 1: play because I've been thinking about maybe Panama team total

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Speaker 1: or both teams to score, but I kind of just

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Speaker 1: landed on over two and a half because, like you said,

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Speaker 1: Panama has to go for this, which is not an

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Speaker 1: area where they are really comfortable in right, Like they

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Speaker 1: are typically a low block, transitional type of team, and

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Speaker 1: I've all were actually kind of impressive for stretches against Uruguay.

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Speaker 1: I know Erguay made that match a lot more transitional

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Speaker 1: because that's just bielsa ball. But the United States has

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Speaker 1: played Panama three times since twenty twenty one. If you

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Speaker 1: may remember, they famously lost to Panama in Panama one nothing.

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Speaker 1: Panama created over one expected little against them. There they

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Speaker 1: beat Panama five to one in the United States in

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Speaker 1: that final that secured World Cup qualification. That match had

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Speaker 1: four and a half expected goals and Panama still created

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Speaker 1: over one expected goal. And then they beat us in

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Speaker 1: the Gold Cup an extra time. So and then you

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Speaker 1: look at some with Panama's matches against Mexico, for example,

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Speaker 1: who's on you know, similar level to the United States.

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Speaker 1: There has been you know, the last two times they

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Speaker 1: played in Mexico, they've created close to five expected goals

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Speaker 1: against them. Like they are a pretty decent transition side

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Speaker 1: and the side that can create chances despite lacking a

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Speaker 1: lot of talent, and now the fact they have to

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Speaker 1: go for this, it's going to create a lot of

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Speaker 1: space for the United States to operate. They're much better

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Speaker 1: attacking team than Bolivia was, so you know, Bliviy had

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Speaker 1: point one to eight expected goals. They really posed no

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Speaker 1: threat to the United States. So I think this match

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Speaker 1: gets a little bit out of hand, honestly, with the

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Speaker 1: United States having to face a better attacking team. We'll

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Speaker 1: see how they fare. But you know, the United States,

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Speaker 1: I mean it was a fine performance, Like we're not big,

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Speaker 1: like you know, we're not going to dive deep into

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Speaker 1: the United States men's national team here. You can go

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Speaker 1: to listen to other podcasts to focus on it here.

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Speaker 1: But they kind of just tried to cross Bolivia to

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Speaker 1: death for most of the match, which didn't work. But

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Speaker 1: eventually they got through and they got their chances and

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Speaker 1: we created over two expected goals. So I don't think

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Speaker 1: you can really be mad about a win that was

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Speaker 1: really never in doubt, you know so. But I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is just like we're watching teams like Brazil. We'll

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Speaker 1: get to Brazil in a second, with like Brazil and

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Speaker 1: France and England, like our countries just tend to overreact

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Speaker 1: if the performance isn't perfect, right like, you know, so,

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Speaker 1: I thought it was a good performance. I think they're

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Speaker 1: United States are deserving favorites here, But I think Panama

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Speaker 1: is definitely live to score.

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Speaker 2: Uruguay is a top of the table right now because

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Speaker 2: they have the better They've got more goal scored than

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Speaker 2: the US. They won three to one against Panama and

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Speaker 2: they take on Bolivia in their second match. They are

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Speaker 2: minus seven hundred Bolivia sixteen to one on the three

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Speaker 2: way line draw is seven to one. Here, it just looks,

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Speaker 2: you know, no interest here for me, is what I

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Speaker 2: would say. I think it does look like another perhaps

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Speaker 2: like another just three one three nil type win for

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Speaker 2: Urguay as they roll into that final match against the US.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's uh so I'm passing in this one. I

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Speaker 1: think Urguay is like really kind of like this price

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Speaker 1: is really really high on them, honestly, Like this is

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Speaker 1: higher than what the United States was. So they played

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Speaker 1: Bolivia in Bolivia and they like completely dominated them two

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Speaker 1: point five expecta goles too point one, Like it was

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Speaker 1: a very dominant performance. But so if I were to

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Speaker 1: look at anything, I guess you could make an argument

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Speaker 1: for Uruguay to win nil just because Bolivia's got like

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Speaker 1: literally no attack like to speak of. But Michael bielsa

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Speaker 1: ball always really really makes me nervous when you're trying

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Speaker 1: to win nil. You know, they obviously conceded a goal

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Speaker 1: late against Panama to kill that clean sheet, so I

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Speaker 1: think I'm just going to pass. You know, I have

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Speaker 1: a Bolivia to finished bottom of this group ticket that

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Speaker 1: I think is just you know, it was looking all

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Speaker 1: right right now, so I'm gonna let that happen. It'll

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Speaker 1: come down to them in the final match against Panama.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I love Bielsa to death, and I still

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Speaker 1: think they're really live to win this tournament, but them

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Speaker 1: keeping clean sheets is not something I'm typically keen to bed,

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Speaker 1: especially at such high price.

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Speaker 2: That's right, Okay, Friday, Colombia Costa Rica once again, bjay, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: Costa Rica.

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Speaker 1: You know, hang on, do you know what the price

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Speaker 1: on the nil no was on Brazil Coasta Rica four

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Speaker 1: eighteen to one, thirty to one? Good lord, I know

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Speaker 1: it hurts.

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Speaker 2: That does hurt? Oh my god? Well yeah, all right,

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Speaker 2: I'll try to recover from that. Let's talk about Columbia

334
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Speaker 2: Costa Rica. Costa Rica gets the nil nil against Brazil

335
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Speaker 2: to really give themselves a shot here to be the

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Speaker 2: surprise team to get out of the group stages. Don't

337
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Speaker 2: need another result though against Columbia and the bookies don't

338
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Speaker 2: like their chances. Columbia's mis two seventy five Costa Rica

339
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Speaker 2: plus seven fifty. The draw is four to one. Maybe

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Speaker 2: maybe the draw maybe has a little I think four

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Speaker 2: to one is a little high on a draw here,

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Speaker 2: especially what we just saw from Costa Rica. Knowing that, hey,

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Speaker 2: if we get a point out of this, like we

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Speaker 2: would seriously fancy our chances against.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Paraguay.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, actually four to one, I think that's a

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Speaker 2: fine bet.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm I'm gonna pass. I was thinking about it.

349
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Speaker 1: And again this kind of goes in the same aspect

350
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Speaker 1: of of Uruguay because of the style of play of Colombia.

351
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Speaker 1: As you saw, it's very frenetic, pressing, eigh transitional based,

352
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Speaker 1: like they're playing the strengths of their team. But for me,

353
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Speaker 1: like I would be looking to maybe play you know,

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Speaker 1: Costa Rica not to score or some type of Columbia

355
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Speaker 1: wind nil. But I just don't think the prices are

356
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Speaker 1: good enough on that. I mean, coast ric took a

357
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Speaker 1: one shot against and against Brazil like they had they

358
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Speaker 1: had like nothing, just there was absolutely nothing going on.

359
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Speaker 1: And we'll get to you know, Brazil in a second.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, it's uh, the Columbia attack just has no talent.

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Speaker 1: You know, they have you know Uga all Day who

362
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Speaker 1: plays for Spartak Moscow, who's an okay striker. They got

363
00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:01,320
Speaker 1: a guy playing for not unforcell he didn't really play,

364
00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:04,879
Speaker 1: but he's in the Notham Forced Forest youth system. Like

365
00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:11,359
Speaker 1: there's just nothing and but the same aspect. I'm very

366
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Speaker 1: I'd be very nervous taking a Columbia like to win

367
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Speaker 1: nail ticket here, Like if you want to bet Columbia

368
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Speaker 1: on the spread, like, go ahead, go ahead and do it.

369
00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,760
Speaker 1: Like there's still a very good attacking side despite you know,

370
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:26,440
Speaker 1: overforming a little bit against Paraguay. But yeah, I credit

371
00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:28,480
Speaker 1: to the Costa Rica defense like they held Brazil in

372
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Speaker 1: or two expected goals, Like that's a that's a tremendous

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Speaker 1: feat in and of itself, like when you're defending your

374
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Speaker 1: own final third for large stretches. But I'll be honest,

375
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Speaker 1: it's it's very very difficult to play that style of

376
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Speaker 1: play over and over and over again and not have

377
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Speaker 1: the have the damn break. So I'll pass on this one.

378
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Speaker 1: But yeah, it's uh, probably just looking for that final

379
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Speaker 1: match against Paraguay and Costa Rico that there's a nil nil.

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Speaker 2: All right, Paraguay and Brazil, nine pm Eastern Friday, twenty eighth.

381
00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:04,720
Speaker 2: Paraguay is eight to one, Brazil's minus two seventy five.

382
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Speaker 2: The draw here is four to one. I think most

383
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Speaker 2: people are gonna just flock to the Brazil spread here,

384
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Speaker 2: but I would urge a little bit of caution.

385
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say, you know, yes, Brazil was Brazil

386
00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 1: unlucky to draw zero zero. Of course they were right

387
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Speaker 1: like they had what I thought was a penalty un

388
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Speaker 1: Venetius Junior. They had like a toenail goal deemed off

389
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,960
Speaker 1: side by var and again they did create enough chances

390
00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:34,760
Speaker 1: to win that much match one nothing. But you know,

391
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Speaker 1: I talked about the problems between relation relationism and positionalism,

392
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Speaker 1: and I didn't think Brazil was really that bad. You saw.

393
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Speaker 1: The problem though, is that they just don't have a striker,

394
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Speaker 1: right like when you're playing a team that's just gonna

395
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Speaker 1: sit deep on you and force you into a bunch

396
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,440
Speaker 1: of crosses if you don't have aerial threats and you're

397
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Speaker 1: just throwing it up to you know, small guys like

398
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,800
Speaker 1: Venetius Junior or Rodrigo, or having them try to dribble

399
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Speaker 1: through three guys like it's it's tough. It's really tough

400
00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:04,040
Speaker 1: to play that way. So there are limitations to Brazil now.

401
00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:07,040
Speaker 1: I think what you'll see is when Brazil gets into

402
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 1: positive game states is when they will really thrive and

403
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,239
Speaker 1: they will really punish teams. But the longer you can

404
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 1: keep the match nil nil against them, the better chance

405
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Speaker 1: you have of drawing like you saw at Costa Rica,

406
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Speaker 1: or potentially winning. Now, this kind of leads me more

407
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:24,239
Speaker 1: towards a h an under two and a half at

408
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:26,159
Speaker 1: even money, or potentially a both team to score. No,

409
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Speaker 1: I haven't really decided which one I want to play,

410
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:29,639
Speaker 1: but I think either one has a little bit of

411
00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:33,639
Speaker 1: value because although you know, Paraguay did score and they

412
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,119
Speaker 1: did create one expectable against Columbia, that's a much different

413
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 1: type of opponent, that's a very transitional base, that's much

414
00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 1: more high intense pressing. Brazil is not really a high

415
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 1: intense pressing team. They kind of play a lot like

416
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,639
Speaker 1: Real Madrid honestly, where it's just kind of let's just

417
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 1: sit back in the four and forth too, let's just

418
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 1: try to transition from deep and you know, and we'll

419
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Speaker 1: try to you know kind of hope for the best.

420
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Speaker 1: We have the best players in the world, so we'll

421
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 1: eventually just break through. Right. So Paraguay is a really

422
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,639
Speaker 1: good defense, you know, despite you know, they're very very

423
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Speaker 1: good in the low defensive block. They're actually way better

424
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Speaker 1: than Costa Rica in that aspect, and I think you're

425
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Speaker 1: going to see them play that way again. They are

426
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Speaker 1: in an aspect where they kind of need a resolt

427
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Speaker 1: from this match and then they need to beat Costa

428
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Speaker 1: Rica in their final match to get through, but a

429
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:19,720
Speaker 1: draw would keep them alive in some respects, So I

430
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 1: will be yes. I'll be on under two and a

431
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:23,400
Speaker 1: half for both teams to score. No, I haven't really

432
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Speaker 1: decided which one yet. Stay tuned the action no work

433
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:29,400
Speaker 1: gap and I'll post it in there. But without a striker,

434
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 1: when you're facing low defensive blocks, it's just really hard, honestly,

435
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 1: if you just don't have an aerial threat and teams

436
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:36,400
Speaker 1: just can close off the middle of the pitch. And again,

437
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:38,400
Speaker 1: Paraguay is way better at doing them in Costa Rica.

438
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 1: So Brazil's individual quality might see through here, but I

439
00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 1: I have a hard time seeing it happen. So I

440
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,160
Speaker 1: would look to play unders maybe another nil nil.

441
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 2: Who knows, another nil nol for Brazil would be great,

442
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:55,880
Speaker 2: would be great if they just nil nil their way

443
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 2: through the group. Let's get into our favorite bets for

444
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,679
Speaker 2: this stage of the tournament. You can go first.

445
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 1: Argentina minus one and a half against Chile. The problem

446
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:08,760
Speaker 1: that exists for this match for Chile is that they

447
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 1: are a team that likes to press from the front.

448
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 1: They like to press very narrowly, but they don't do

449
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,400
Speaker 1: a great job at keeping teams from playing through the middle,

450
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:19,119
Speaker 1: so that's a big problem. Argentina showed against Canada that

451
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 1: they can be a really good transition team. Like normally

452
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,720
Speaker 1: Argentina faces a ton of low blocks and is really

453
00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 1: good at possessing the ball, playing passing triangles and playing

454
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:29,120
Speaker 1: through those. But this is going to be a match

455
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 1: where they're going to be more on the front foot

456
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 1: and have a lot of space and for those direct

457
00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,119
Speaker 1: counter attacking opportunities. I mean, they created three expected goals

458
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 1: against Canada, mainly all off of those transition attacks. But

459
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 1: what also what this comes down to is I don't

460
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 1: think Chile is going to really even sniff Argentina's goal.

461
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: Since the beginning of the World Cup in twenty twenty two,

462
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 1: Argentina's allowed six point six expect goals and fourteen matches,

463
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 1: they have minus one point two expect goal differential per

464
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 1: ninety minutes since that timeframe. So I think this is

465
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 1: an Argentina route and I like them minus one and

466
00:22:58,240 --> 00:22:59,440
Speaker 1: a half at plus one twenty five.

467
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,480
Speaker 2: Go with Jamaica to pull the upset at six to

468
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:08,160
Speaker 2: one against Ecuador. That the story from Jamaica's first round

469
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 2: match against Mexico was that they yeah, they lost one nil,

470
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 2: but they looked really good. They were maybe the most

471
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 2: impressive of the losing teams in the first swath of

472
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 2: matches that we've seen in Copa America. This is a

473
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 2: team that held Mexico to zero point six expected goals

474
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,879
Speaker 2: or less than one, which is pretty impressive considering the

475
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 2: talent disparity. But Jamaica also has some match winners in

476
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 2: their squads, so they're the type of team that if

477
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 2: they if you do let them hang around, guys like

478
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 2: Themari Gray or Michael Antonio, Bobby Cordiva, Cordova read these

479
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 2: guys can make make a difference if they can hang around.

480
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,119
Speaker 2: So I think six to one against a team that

481
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:49,359
Speaker 2: is going to be missing enter Valencia. Didn't really uh doesn't.

482
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:51,360
Speaker 2: It doesn't really strike me as a team you'd want

483
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 2: to lay minus one eighty eight with. I just don't

484
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,160
Speaker 2: think the gap between these two teams is wide as

485
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 2: these odds suggest. So I like the sixty to one

486
00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,879
Speaker 2: money line here on Jamaica, and if you want, you

487
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 2: and even play them, split your steak six to one,

488
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 2: maybe plus five point fifty to advance as well, because

489
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 2: I do think that Jamaica is live here. So back

490
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 2: back Jamaica for me, that's my favorite bet. Bjay, good job.

491
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,640
Speaker 2: We'll be back again for the third round of group

492
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 2: stage matches for Copa America. We're also coming up on

493
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 2: the knockout stage for Euro twenty twenty four, so we'll

494
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 2: be back recording that. But until then, best of luck

495
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:37,360
Speaker 2: with all your bets across all tournaments. Action Network reminds

496
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,440
Speaker 2: you please gamble responsibly.

497
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,679
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

498
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

499
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler