WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: September 12, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio)

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<v Speaker 1>Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Burger Studios is Bloomberg Daybreak

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<v Speaker 1>for Monday, September twelve two. Coming up this hour, Promising

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<v Speaker 1>signs for Ukraine as military forces retake key territory from Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>The UK enters a week of mourning as the public

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<v Speaker 1>prepares to pay respect to Queen Elizabeth. And on Wall Street,

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<v Speaker 1>It's all about inflation? Is traders await the next greeting

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<v Speaker 1>on consumer prices? The New York police officer was killed

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<v Speaker 1>while heading to nine eleven ceremonies, plus the sentencing phase

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<v Speaker 1>continues for the Parkland High School shooter. I'm Michael barr

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<v Speaker 1>More ahelf. I'm John stash Owen Sports a thrillion season

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<v Speaker 1>Open and went for the Giants. The Jets lost the

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<v Speaker 1>Mets and Yankees one on Carlos Alcarez one the US Open.

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<v Speaker 1>That's All's training ahead on Bloomberg day Break on Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>eleven Free on New York, Bloomberg N one, Washington, d C,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco,

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<v Speaker 1>Syrius x AM one nine Team and around the World

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<v Speaker 1>Old on Bloomberg Radio Dot. Carmen via the Bloomberg Business app.

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning, I'm Nathan Haker and I'm Karen Moscow. US

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<v Speaker 1>DOT index futures on the rise this morning. We're going

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<v Speaker 1>to have to fago went on Wall Street and we

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<v Speaker 1>checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day

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<v Speaker 1>on bloomberg S and P Future is of twenty six bys,

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<v Speaker 1>Dow futures of a hundred seventy five and NASTAG futures

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<v Speaker 1>up ninety two. The ten year treasury up three thirty seconds,

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<v Speaker 1>held three point to nine percent, and they yield on

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<v Speaker 1>the two year three point five three percent and nine X.

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<v Speaker 1>Screwed oil is up three quarters of a percent at

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<v Speaker 1>eighty seven dollars forty five cents of barrel. Nathan, Karen. Thanks.

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<v Speaker 1>We begin this morning in Ukraine. It's been more than

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred days since Russia invaded the country, and now

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<v Speaker 1>we are seeing promising signs for Ukraine as the country's

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<v Speaker 1>military advances in the east and retakes some key territories.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's Amy Morris has the latest from our newsroom in Washington, Nathan.

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<v Speaker 1>Unconfirmed reports overnight suggests the Ukrainian troops have retaken hounds

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<v Speaker 1>in and around the Kharkiv region, not far from the

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<v Speaker 1>Russia Ukraine border. Ukraine's top commander says they've returned about

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<v Speaker 1>three thousand square kilometers of lost territory back to Ukrainian control.

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<v Speaker 1>Russia's Defense ministry published a map showing that much of

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<v Speaker 1>the country's forces are out of the Kharkiv region now,

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<v Speaker 1>but they didn't comment further. Military experts tell Bloomberg News

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine should watch for an unexpected reaction from Vladimir Putin

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<v Speaker 1>in Washington. I'm Amy Moore as Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, Amy,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you. We turned to the UK now, where the

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<v Speaker 1>nation continues its period of mourning in the wig of

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<v Speaker 1>Queen Elizabeth's death. King Charles will speak in Westminster today

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<v Speaker 1>as political leaders gathered to offer their condolences. Then the

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<v Speaker 1>Queen lies in state for twenty four hours in Edinburgh, Scotland,

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<v Speaker 1>where the public will pay their respects before she's moved

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<v Speaker 1>to London. Bloomberg's Lizzie Burden has more details from Buckingham

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<v Speaker 1>Palace to plority lining up to pay their respects. They

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<v Speaker 1>have been since before the sun even came up, just

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<v Speaker 1>to take a quiet moment of reflection. The King Charles

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<v Speaker 1>the Third over the weekend. Of course, he formally took

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<v Speaker 1>the throne trust swore allegiance to him in the last

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<v Speaker 1>Prime Minister do do. That was Winston Churchhill. For the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of the week as well as she's going to

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<v Speaker 1>accompany him on a tour of Britain. Tomorrow, the Coffin

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<v Speaker 1>will return here to Buckingham Palace, and then from Wednesday

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<v Speaker 1>until the funeral now confirmed for September nineteenth, the Queen

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<v Speaker 1>will lie in state at Westminster Hale and Bloomberrys. Lizzie

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<v Speaker 1>Burden at Buckingham Palace says the Queen's funeral be hounded

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<v Speaker 1>Westminster Abbey one week from today. Man. President Biden is

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<v Speaker 1>going to attend that funeral next week, Karen. But back

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<v Speaker 1>in the US, it was a somber weekend for the

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<v Speaker 1>White House. Politics hit the pause button Sunday as we

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<v Speaker 1>marked twenty one years since the attacks of nine eleven.

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<v Speaker 1>President Biden used the events of our vigilance against future

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<v Speaker 1>terror threats in remarks made at the Pentagon. What was destroyed,

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<v Speaker 1>we have repaired, what was threatened, We fortified what was attacked.

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<v Speaker 1>The abdominable spirit has never ever wavered. President Biden later

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<v Speaker 1>reef at the panda on that has become a tradition

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<v Speaker 1>for US presidents on the anniversary of nine eleven. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it was indeed a somber weekend, Nathan, And as we

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<v Speaker 1>emerge from it, President Biden faces a possible labor crisis

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<v Speaker 1>that threatens to shock supply chains across the country. US

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<v Speaker 1>railroad workers are threatening a strike, and we get details

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<v Speaker 1>from Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo. Tens of thousands of US rail

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<v Speaker 1>workers could be on strike by the end of this week.

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<v Speaker 1>Their warning of potential disruptions as soon as today. Negotiations

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<v Speaker 1>have been challenging and ongoing for more than two years.

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<v Speaker 1>Current rail labor contracts are frozen at levels, and the

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<v Speaker 1>White House is urging negotiators to continue talks throughout the week.

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<v Speaker 1>According to rail officials, a strike could snarl supply chains,

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<v Speaker 1>disrupt agricultural deliveries, and cost the US economy more than

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<v Speaker 1>two billion dollars a day. In New York, I'm Lisa

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<v Speaker 1>Mateo Bloomberg Daybreak. Al Right, Lisa, thank you. As inflation

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<v Speaker 1>sees workers fight for higher wages, it also remains front

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<v Speaker 1>and center on Wall Street. Janet Yelling came out to

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<v Speaker 1>address the matter this weekend. The Treasury Secretary tell CNN

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<v Speaker 1>she's hopeful the FED can bring down prices without sending

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<v Speaker 1>the US economy into recession. The FIT is going to

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<v Speaker 1>need great skill and also some good look to achieve

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<v Speaker 1>what we sometimes call a soft landing, which is bringing

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<v Speaker 1>inflation down while maintaining the strength of the labor market.

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<v Speaker 1>And my hope, I believe there is a path to

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<v Speaker 1>accomplishing that, and my hope is that we will achieve

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<v Speaker 1>the soft landing. Jenny Gellen says taming inflation is the

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<v Speaker 1>main priority for the FED and that the US cannot

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<v Speaker 1>have a strong labor market if prices remain high. Well, Nathan,

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<v Speaker 1>we won't have to wait long for the next reading

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<v Speaker 1>on inflation consumer prices headline the list of economic data

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<v Speaker 1>on TAMP this week. We get that rating tomorrow and

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Schress Condon says it will be key for the

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<v Speaker 1>Fed's next meeting. There's still ten days to go before

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<v Speaker 1>this meeting, but we're gonna get a lot of data

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<v Speaker 1>this week, so the Fed is going to want to

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<v Speaker 1>not by seventy basis points as they seem to have

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<v Speaker 1>signaled to the markets. Then they're going to have to

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<v Speaker 1>change that signal by the end of the week, and

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<v Speaker 1>of course that will be data dependent. Mer Chris Condon

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<v Speaker 1>says CPI data is not the only key indicator this week.

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<v Speaker 1>The FED will also be looking at readings on producer

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<v Speaker 1>prices and retail sales. But we're seeing the dollar weekend

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<v Speaker 1>sharply this morning, Karena. That's giving a lift of the

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<v Speaker 1>euro and the pound. It also gave a boost to

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<v Speaker 1>stocks in Asia overnight. Bloomberg's Juliette Sally joins US from Sydney,

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<v Speaker 1>Australia with the details. Good morning Juliette, Good morning Nathan

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<v Speaker 1>and Karen. Semiconductor stocks led the games, t SMC, rising

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<v Speaker 1>more than three percent in Taipei, boosting Taiwan's gage after

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<v Speaker 1>August sales rose from a year ago and Routs reported

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<v Speaker 1>the US plans to broaden curbs on ship shipments to

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<v Speaker 1>China reopening. Stocks in Japan gained after fn N and

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<v Speaker 1>The Decay News reported the nation may soon ease travel

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<v Speaker 1>curbs and scrap daily passenger cabs. Australia as a sex

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred grows more than one percent in Sydney, and

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<v Speaker 1>markets were closed for a holiday in China, Hong Kong

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<v Speaker 1>and South Korea. In Sitney, Juliet Sally Bloomberg, daybreak. All right, Juliette,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks SMP futures. Right now, we're up twenty five point

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<v Speaker 1>staff futures up a hundred seventy four and NASTAC futures.

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<v Speaker 1>You're hired by ninety two points ten. Your treasury is

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<v Speaker 1>up three thirty seconds, the yield three point to nine.

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<v Speaker 1>Straight ahead, your latest local headlines and a check of sports.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg five oh seven on Wall Street, sixty

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<v Speaker 1>nine degrees in Central Park. We've got two accidents on

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<v Speaker 1>the northbound FDR Drive in the upper east Side. Details

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<v Speaker 1>coming up in traffic. First, Michael Barr, What else is

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<v Speaker 1>going on in New York and around the world? Morning, Michael,

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning, Nathan and New York Port Authority police officer

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<v Speaker 1>was killed yesterday while heading to a nine eleven ceremony.

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<v Speaker 1>Anthony Vavarro from Staten Island was heading to serve at

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<v Speaker 1>the World Trade Center Command on Sunday morning when he

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<v Speaker 1>was killed in the car crash near the Holland Tunnel.

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<v Speaker 1>Vavaro voluntarily retired as a picture from Major League Baseball

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<v Speaker 1>from the Braves to join the Port Authority only a

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<v Speaker 1>few days later, and Enny of Vavarro was thirty seven

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<v Speaker 1>years old. The trial resums today in the sentencing phase

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<v Speaker 1>of the Parkland High School shooter Nicholas Cruz, who is

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<v Speaker 1>twenty three years old, pleaded guilty in October to the

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<v Speaker 1>eighteen attack that killed seventeen students and staff members. The

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<v Speaker 1>jury will decide where the Cruise will be sentenced to

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<v Speaker 1>death or life without parole. In Madara County, California, officials

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<v Speaker 1>are now saying the Fork fire is six contained. Chris

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<v Speaker 1>Hamilton's and her husband Rick have been lucky so far

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<v Speaker 1>and their house has remained unharmed. But Chris Hamilton's says

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<v Speaker 1>one of their friends hasn't been as fortunate. One of

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<v Speaker 1>the gentlemen that helps many of us up here with

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<v Speaker 1>our yards, he did lose his house. It's just heartbreaking.

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<v Speaker 1>What I know. There's nothing you can say that makes

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<v Speaker 1>it better. Um, because we've been there. They'll go through

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<v Speaker 1>the motions and do the best they can. The fire

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<v Speaker 1>so far has consumed at least twenty eight structures in

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen outbuildings. We reached the halfway date of the Atlantic

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<v Speaker 1>hurricane season. It was supposed to be above average year

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<v Speaker 1>for storms, but for now, experts say the odds of

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<v Speaker 1>a quiet season are increasing with each passing day. Last spring,

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<v Speaker 1>federal forecasters predicted as many as twenty one named storms,

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<v Speaker 1>including three to six major hurricanes. The seventy four Annual

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<v Speaker 1>Emmy Awards takes place tonight. One show nominated Netflix Squid Game,

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<v Speaker 1>the first non English speaking show to be nominated in

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<v Speaker 1>the Outstanding Drama category. Global News twenty four hours a

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<v Speaker 1>day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more

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<v Speaker 1>than dred journalists and analysts more than a d twenty countries.

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<v Speaker 1>Michael Barr, I'll get under the table. This is Bloomberg, Nathan,

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<v Speaker 1>never too early to creep us out. Thank you, Michael.

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<v Speaker 1>Five O nine on Wall Street, Time for the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Sports Update. Football's back, John stash Our, Yeah, Nathan, the

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<v Speaker 1>giants are want to oh that doesn't happen off and

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<v Speaker 1>in Nashville they fell line thirteen uphing and then two

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<v Speaker 1>big plays in the third quarter of sixty eight yard

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<v Speaker 1>run by se Kwan Barkley, who had a huge afternoon,

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<v Speaker 1>a sixties six yard touchdown past Daniel Jones, the Sterling

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<v Speaker 1>Shepherd those two plays longer than any plays all of

0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:17.000
<v Speaker 1>last season. Giants took the league with just over a

0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:20.840
<v Speaker 1>minute left, converting on a risky two point conversion. Titans

0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:23.319
<v Speaker 1>had a chance to win at the end, Naps clean

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<v Speaker 1>tick on its way and doncer end and its left

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<v Speaker 1>one for the first thirty two thousand sixteen, the Giants

0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:38.439
<v Speaker 1>have won the season over twenty one twenty and Brian

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<v Speaker 1>Bables coaching debut, asked the Jets more of the same

0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:43.839
<v Speaker 1>couple of turnovers dropped passes. Jets only touchdown came with

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<v Speaker 1>a minute left. They lost to Baltimore nine. Jets have

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<v Speaker 1>lost thirteen games in a row in September. Last night

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<v Speaker 1>in Dallas, Tampa Bay won nineteen three Leonard four an

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<v Speaker 1>ad A hundred twenty seven yards Patrick Mahomes been five

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<v Speaker 1>TV passes, easy win for Kansas City, four teeny fasses

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<v Speaker 1>for Carson wentzon Is Washington a View. Minnesota upset Green

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<v Speaker 1>Bay easily for Justin Jefferson hundred eighty four receiving yards,

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of two vings. The day after the Yankees

0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:09.760
<v Speaker 1>one ten to three, they won ten to four over

0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:12.120
<v Speaker 1>Tampa Bay scored all ten and the first two innings

0:11:12.120 --> 0:11:14.800
<v Speaker 1>and four home runs, two by Glabor Torres yanks Nelly

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<v Speaker 1>the Rays by five and a half. Mets moved game

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<v Speaker 1>and a half ahead of Atlanta nine three win in

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<v Speaker 1>Miami after three straight five set wins. Carlos Alcarez won

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<v Speaker 1>the US Open finally in four sets over Norway's Casparou,

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<v Speaker 1>the nineteen year old Alcarez youngest Open winner in thirty

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<v Speaker 1>two years. John stash were Bloomberg scorts. Okay, John, thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>We're watching equities move higher this morning. You have SMP

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<v Speaker 1>futures right now twenty six points down, futures of a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred seventy five. Nast decks futures are higher by nineties

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<v Speaker 1>six points, leading the games this morning. Look at the

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<v Speaker 1>jacks in Germany up one point six percent right now.

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<v Speaker 1>We are seeing euro strength on stronger hawk ish talk

0:11:50.720 --> 0:11:53.640
<v Speaker 1>from European central bankers. The euro right now one point zero,

0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:57.559
<v Speaker 1>one eight zero against the dollar. Dennis Gartman, the former

0:11:57.600 --> 0:11:59.960
<v Speaker 1>publisher of the Gartment Letter, now chairman of the univer

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<v Speaker 1>City of Akron's Endowment Investment Committee, joins US next on

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<v Speaker 1>these markets. This is Bloomberg Bloomberg eleventh three. Weather a

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<v Speaker 1>few showers early then turning probably to mostly cloudy with

0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:13.199
<v Speaker 1>a high near eighty degrees. Morning showers a good way

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<v Speaker 1>to sunshine Tomorrow. Low eighties will be near eighty under

0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:22.680
<v Speaker 1>sunny skies Wednesday. Right now sixty nine in Central Park Markets,

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<v Speaker 1>headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day at

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Business at and at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Quicktake's a Bloomberg Business Flash, and I'm Camra in Moscow.

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<v Speaker 1>European stocks and US stock index futures are extending a

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<v Speaker 1>rally and the dollar retreating as traders bet inflation is

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<v Speaker 1>nearing peak, even as policymakers ramp up hawkish rhetoric. We

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<v Speaker 1>checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day

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<v Speaker 1>on bloombergs and Key futures are up twenty six points

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<v Speaker 1>down futures up one hundred seventy and NASDAGG futures up

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<v Speaker 1>ninety two. The decks in Germany is at one point

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<v Speaker 1>seven percent, ten year treasury at four thirty seconds here

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<v Speaker 1>three point nine percent. The yield on the two year

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<v Speaker 1>three point five three percent. Nine max screwed oil is

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<v Speaker 1>up seven tenths per cent, or sixty one cents at

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<v Speaker 1>eighty seven dollars forty one cents a barrel. Comic schoold

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<v Speaker 1>is up half percent or eight dollars fifty cents is

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<v Speaker 1>seventeen thirty seven ten an ounce the euro one point

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<v Speaker 1>one seven five against the dollar, British found one point

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<v Speaker 1>one six eight three and again one forty two point

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<v Speaker 1>seven one. Look at bitcoin, it is up two point

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<v Speaker 1>eight percent at twenty two thousand, two hundred fifty dollars.

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<v Speaker 1>An Oracle is among companies schedule to report earnings today.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael Barb with

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<v Speaker 1>more on what's going on around the world. Michael, good morning,

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning Karen. Ukrainian soldiers are taking back territory that

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<v Speaker 1>had been controlled by Russia for several months as part

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<v Speaker 1>of a swift counter offensive. The Ukrainians are claiming gains

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<v Speaker 1>in the northeast and south of their nation. Queen Elizabeth's

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<v Speaker 1>flying Draped Confidness slowly percessed through the Scottish country reside

0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:03.599
<v Speaker 1>on a journey from her bell Moral Castle to the

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<v Speaker 1>Scottish capital of Edinburgh. In football, the Giants won, the

0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:11.119
<v Speaker 1>Jets lost to the Ravens. The Commanders won the Patriots

0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:14.880
<v Speaker 1>and Forts lost. In baseball, the Yankees and Mets won,

0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:18.240
<v Speaker 1>the Nationals lost, the Red Sox beat the Orioles one zip,

0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:22.920
<v Speaker 1>The A's and Giants won. Global news twenty four hours

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<v Speaker 1>a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by

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<v Speaker 1>more than journalist and analysts more than a hundred twenty countries.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg, Nathan, Michael. Thanks.

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<v Speaker 1>It's five nineteen on Wall Street Live from the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Interactive Brokers studios. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. On the morning

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<v Speaker 1>when we're seeing pretty strong gains in equities, looks like

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<v Speaker 1>risk on this morning, let's bring in Dennis Gartman to

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<v Speaker 1>help us kick off this trading week, the chairman of

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<v Speaker 1>the University of akronin Downmin Investment Committee and of course

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<v Speaker 1>former publisher of the Gartment letter. Dennis great as always

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<v Speaker 1>to speak with you. As a stocks are coming off

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<v Speaker 1>their best week since late July. Do you expect this

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<v Speaker 1>rally to continue? What do you think is driving in

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<v Speaker 1>I think there's some optimism about what's happening in Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>and the fact that the gig ping in China has

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<v Speaker 1>decided to travel outside of China for the first time

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<v Speaker 1>in months, indicating that there's some reduction, and the concerns

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<v Speaker 1>over COVID in China. I think those two things are

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<v Speaker 1>driving prices higher. There's no question that the FED is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be very uh uh is going to tighten

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<v Speaker 1>monetary policy again at the September meeting. The question shall

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<v Speaker 1>be what will they do in the November and December meetings.

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<v Speaker 1>I think they'll tighten again, and I'm I've been bearish

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<v Speaker 1>of the stock market since basically January this year, and

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<v Speaker 1>I continue to be bearish. I think the rally that

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<v Speaker 1>we're having is on extremely light volume, and good bull

0:15:43.640 --> 0:15:46.920
<v Speaker 1>markets always go up on good volume, fall on light volume.

0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:49.680
<v Speaker 1>Bear markets go up on light volume and down on

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<v Speaker 1>heavy volume, and what we're seeing is a rally on

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<v Speaker 1>very light volume. So I continue to say that this

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<v Speaker 1>is a bear market. It's nice to see the market rally.

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<v Speaker 1>Everybody feels better when stock prices go up. Everybody feels

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<v Speaker 1>bad when stock prices go down. But I think if

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<v Speaker 1>you're long the stock market, I think you should be

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<v Speaker 1>using this rally that we've had the first one in

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<v Speaker 1>a long while to lighten up your positions. That's what

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<v Speaker 1>I've been doing, and I think that's the right course

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<v Speaker 1>of action at this point to FED is gonna FED

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<v Speaker 1>is going to continue to take nine billion dollars out

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<v Speaker 1>of its assets over the course of the next several years,

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<v Speaker 1>and that was the fuel that drove the stock market

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<v Speaker 1>and drove the economy higher. Now they're taking that fuel away.

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<v Speaker 1>We mentioned some of the exogenous indicators like the gains

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<v Speaker 1>in Ukraine and a Chinese president she moving out of

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<v Speaker 1>the country now, so much of the inflation we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>has been driven by exogenous factors. When you see the

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<v Speaker 1>developments like this on a headline basis, does that raise

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<v Speaker 1>the possibility that we could see a stronger gain for

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<v Speaker 1>risk assets given what central banks can do against inflation,

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<v Speaker 1>which is fairly limited. It's it's possible. I've been in

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<v Speaker 1>the business for forty forty five years, have been training

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<v Speaker 1>for my own account for that long period of time.

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<v Speaker 1>Been very lucky over the course of those or in

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<v Speaker 1>a half decades. But what I've learned is follow the

0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:06.280
<v Speaker 1>follow volume more than anything else. Follow don't fade the

0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:08.840
<v Speaker 1>FED and follow volume. Those are the two things to

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<v Speaker 1>pay attention to. There's a lot of green on the

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<v Speaker 1>board today, grains are up, livestock prices are up, crude

0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:16.960
<v Speaker 1>oil prices are up. There's a risk off circumstance going

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<v Speaker 1>on right now. But I do think that this will

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<v Speaker 1>be very short term and duration. And again I'll just

0:17:21.280 --> 0:17:24.600
<v Speaker 1>simply say I've been bary since January five, and I

0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:27.119
<v Speaker 1>think that that's been the proper course of action. So

0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:29.400
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to continue to say the same thing. Don't

0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:31.840
<v Speaker 1>don't be a buyer here. If you've been lucky and

0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:34.080
<v Speaker 1>you've been long, use this, Use this rally that we've

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<v Speaker 1>had in the course of the past five five training

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<v Speaker 1>sessions to become less and less involved, less long raise

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<v Speaker 1>some cash. Well. Of course, a lot of attention is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be on the August Consumer Price Index coming

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<v Speaker 1>out tomorrow, because it's gonna be a big focus for

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<v Speaker 1>the FED as well. What are your expectations there in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of whether we could see peak inflation or at

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<v Speaker 1>least a trough uh in inflation. I think we're I

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<v Speaker 1>think we've been lucky with inflation for the US the

0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:02.679
<v Speaker 1>past month and a half or two. Crude oil prices

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<v Speaker 1>have fallen, obviously, from a hundred twenty dollars a barrel

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<v Speaker 1>earlier this year. To eighty one dollars a barrel. It's

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<v Speaker 1>bounced a bit. We've seen grain prices come off. We've

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<v Speaker 1>seen a weed, for example, which was trading thirteen dollars

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<v Speaker 1>a bushel falling all the way to eight dollars a bushel.

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<v Speaker 1>But that's turned higher and going from the lower left

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<v Speaker 1>to the upper right. Corn prices now have turned from

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<v Speaker 1>the lower left and are moving to the upper right.

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<v Speaker 1>Livestock prices are getting stronger. Comper prices are beginning to

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<v Speaker 1>turn better. So I think people who have hoped that

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<v Speaker 1>we'd have a peak and inflation, probably our ill advised,

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<v Speaker 1>probably are wrong. I think we've had a good month

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<v Speaker 1>and a half or two of weaker prices, but now

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<v Speaker 1>they're turning from the lower Now they're turning up again,

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<v Speaker 1>And I think inflationary problems will be incoming again, not

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<v Speaker 1>in the not too distant future. So don't get carried

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<v Speaker 1>away with a hope for peak in inflation. I don't

0:18:47.480 --> 0:18:49.600
<v Speaker 1>think we've seen one. Well, what are you looking at

0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:52.800
<v Speaker 1>the would give you some confidence that we could see

0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:56.560
<v Speaker 1>peak inflation? What what would need to change? Grain prices

0:18:56.680 --> 0:18:58.760
<v Speaker 1>have to turn lower again, live stock prices have to

0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:01.480
<v Speaker 1>turn lower again, copper prices would have to turn lower again.

0:19:01.960 --> 0:19:04.560
<v Speaker 1>Gold would have to trade under seventeen hundred dollars announced

0:19:05.280 --> 0:19:08.600
<v Speaker 1>uh bitcoin would have to trade back below eighteen thousand dollars.

0:19:08.760 --> 0:19:10.919
<v Speaker 1>You need all of those things to to convince me

0:19:10.960 --> 0:19:13.960
<v Speaker 1>that inflation has been negated. I I don't think that

0:19:13.960 --> 0:19:17.320
<v Speaker 1>that's possible. As as we learned in graduate school and

0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:21.520
<v Speaker 1>undergraduate economics, inflation is always an everywhere, a monetary phenomenon.

0:19:21.880 --> 0:19:23.879
<v Speaker 1>And the fact that the set has taken its assets

0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:27.880
<v Speaker 1>from nine nine nine billion, nine hundred billion dollars, get

0:19:27.920 --> 0:19:31.520
<v Speaker 1>it right, Dennis, nine hundred billion dollars to nine trillion

0:19:31.520 --> 0:19:33.680
<v Speaker 1>dollars over the course of the past decade and a half.

0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:37.520
<v Speaker 1>That's that was what supplied the impetus for inflation, and

0:19:37.560 --> 0:19:39.600
<v Speaker 1>it's going to continue to be a problem for years

0:19:39.600 --> 0:19:41.719
<v Speaker 1>to go into the future. So, yes, we may get

0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:43.639
<v Speaker 1>a better number two more. It's probably gonna be about

0:19:43.640 --> 0:19:46.080
<v Speaker 1>eight point one percent or so, a little bit better

0:19:46.119 --> 0:19:48.000
<v Speaker 1>than we had seen in the course of the past

0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:49.960
<v Speaker 1>several months. But I think that that's gonna be the

0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:51.960
<v Speaker 1>best number we're gonna see for quite some period of time.

0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:55.240
<v Speaker 1>Speaking for prices, labor, labor cross continue to rise and

0:19:55.280 --> 0:19:57.919
<v Speaker 1>that's the real problem. We're speaking with Dennis Gartman, the

0:19:57.920 --> 0:20:00.000
<v Speaker 1>former publisher of The Garment Letter now chairman of the

0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:04.040
<v Speaker 1>University of acron Endowment Investment Committee. Dennis, with your advice

0:20:04.160 --> 0:20:08.639
<v Speaker 1>that investors should take this opportunity to pile into more cash.

0:20:08.720 --> 0:20:10.800
<v Speaker 1>Where do you see the path for the US dollar

0:20:10.880 --> 0:20:12.960
<v Speaker 1>at this point? We've seen a lot of dollar strength

0:20:12.960 --> 0:20:15.320
<v Speaker 1>in recent days that we're starting to pull back on

0:20:15.359 --> 0:20:17.399
<v Speaker 1>that in the current session. Where do you see the

0:20:17.400 --> 0:20:20.040
<v Speaker 1>path for the dollar going forward? It's still the