WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: Mortgage Rates, Denmark Election, BYD Earnings 0:00:02.560 --> 0:00:05.440 This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 0:00:05.480 --> 0:00:08.119 top stories in the coming week from our daybreak anchors 0:00:08.160 --> 0:00:10.600 all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, A 0:00:10.720 --> 0:00:13.120 look at what we can expect for US mortgage rates 0:00:13.160 --> 0:00:16.360 in twenty twenty six. I'm Alexis Christophers in New York. 0:00:16.400 --> 0:00:19.160 I'm Calain Hepkeahey in London, where we discussed the snap 0:00:19.239 --> 0:00:23.000 election in Denmark shaped by the standoff with President Trump 0:00:23.120 --> 0:00:23.919 over Greenland. 0:00:24.120 --> 0:00:26.760 I'm Doug Krisner looking at earnings in the coming week 0:00:26.920 --> 0:00:29.480 for the Chinese ev Maker byd. 0:00:30.600 --> 0:00:34.440 That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:38.440 eleven three to zero, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 0:00:38.920 --> 0:00:44.000 Bloomberg ninety two nine, Boston, dav Digital Radio, London, Sirius 0:00:44.159 --> 0:00:47.840 XM one twenty one, and around the world on Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:50.080 dot Com and the Bloomberg Business app. 0:00:54.960 --> 0:00:57.840 This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 0:00:57.840 --> 0:00:59.920 top stories in the coming week from our day break 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:02.880 anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, 0:01:02.920 --> 0:01:05.200 A look at what we can expect for US mortgage 0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:08.759 rates in twenty twenty six. I'm Alexis Christophers in New York. 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:12.200 Good day to you. I'm Alexis Christophers. We begin today's 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:15.120 program with a look at US mortgage rates for more 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:17.080 on what we can expect this year. We're joined by 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:21.160 Erica Aidelberg, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief mortgage backed securities strategist. 0:01:21.680 --> 0:01:21.880 Erica. 0:01:21.959 --> 0:01:23.760 Great to have you here, So glad you're on the 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:27.360 show because this is a hot topic right now. Mortgage rates. 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:30.679 We saw them rise last week to the highest level 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:35.360 so far this year. Big drop in refinancings as well. 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:37.160 What's going on in the mortgage market. 0:01:37.440 --> 0:01:39.480 Hi, thank you for having me on. A Good morning 0:01:39.520 --> 0:01:44.120 to you. Yeah, mortgages, mortgage rates in particular, are right 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:47.840 at that interesting cusp where there's been so many barbers 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:50.080 who had to take out mortgage at a higher rates 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:54.960 over the past four years that we're told to we 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:57.880 like to say, date the rate, marry the house. So 0:01:57.960 --> 0:02:00.520 a lot of these borrowers really had to stretched to 0:02:00.520 --> 0:02:03.120 take out these mortgage rates. And at the same time, 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:06.200 since these were the highest mortgage rates in about twenty years, 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:09.720 they were acutely aware that they were locking in relatively 0:02:09.760 --> 0:02:12.560 high mortgage rates, were hoping to be able to refinance, 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:15.160 and in fact, some of them were really hoping because 0:02:15.160 --> 0:02:18.000 they'd really stretch to take out these mortgage rates. We 0:02:18.040 --> 0:02:22.280 saw a thirty percent drop in refinancing applications just based 0:02:22.320 --> 0:02:25.440 on this very small shift back upwards and rates, and 0:02:25.480 --> 0:02:28.160 we could talk about what caused that as well, and 0:02:28.200 --> 0:02:31.480 that what that really highlights is just the huge percentage 0:02:31.520 --> 0:02:35.840 of borrowers who are right on that cuspoer refinancing, and 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:38.400 a thirty percent drop one way or or increase one 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:40.239 way or the other could really make or break a 0:02:40.360 --> 0:02:42.040 year for like a mortgage banker. 0:02:41.720 --> 0:02:42.280 For instance. 0:02:42.320 --> 0:02:46.360 Sure, so what we're also saying is that mortgage bankers 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:50.839 themselves are really intent in getting as many of these 0:02:50.880 --> 0:02:55.600 refinancings through the pipeline as quickly as possible as they can. 0:02:55.840 --> 0:02:59.720 Before rates going before rates go higher for us, what 0:02:59.720 --> 0:03:01.880 about fifteen year? Where is that sitting at the moment? 0:03:01.880 --> 0:03:05.200 Which I know that's more popular with refinancers. 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:10.000 Yeah, it is more popular with a lot of refinancers. However, 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:13.000 it encurs quite a bit of higher payment. You know, 0:03:13.040 --> 0:03:16.960 a lot of times when that is in fact a 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:20.000 popular item, it's because there's been enough home price appreciation 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:23.640 or enough seasoning in the mortgage loans that it makes 0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:26.080 that it makes sense. You know. For instance, I even 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:30.120 refinanced into a fifteen year a few years ago because 0:03:30.200 --> 0:03:33.760 we had a thirty year mortgage and if we'd refinanced 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:37.040 into another thirty year mortgage, our whole stream, but our 0:03:37.040 --> 0:03:38.920 whole interest stream, would have been higher. 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:42.560 Sure, is this really all about the war with Iran, 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:45.320 what it's doing to the oil markets and how that 0:03:45.360 --> 0:03:48.720 can be inflationary And we've seen how that has impacted 0:03:48.720 --> 0:03:51.520 the ten year treasury, and the thirty year is very 0:03:51.560 --> 0:03:53.480 closely tied to the ten year treasury, more so than 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:55.760 what the Federal Reserve does, of course with its overnight 0:03:56.080 --> 0:03:59.600 interest rate. So is that what's behind this this rise, 0:03:59.640 --> 0:04:01.200 this re rise in mortgage rates. 0:04:01.360 --> 0:04:04.440 That's an excellent question. And just for the fun of it, 0:04:04.480 --> 0:04:06.080 recently I was working on a note where I was 0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:09.520 looking at the correlation between say, mortgage rates or mortgage 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:13.920 spreads and oil rates. Pretty much no correlation, ok, you know, 0:04:14.000 --> 0:04:15.840 I mean, you know, you can see times, but what 0:04:15.920 --> 0:04:18.799 really is driving this? As you said, the key here 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:24.440 is what it's doing to inflation expectations, and more importantly, 0:04:24.839 --> 0:04:27.560 it's also creating a lot of uncertainty about what the 0:04:27.640 --> 0:04:30.040 fen's going to be able to do, what direction rates 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:32.440 are going to be able to go. What does uncertainty mean. 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:39.440 Uncertainty means increases in volatility, both implied in actual rate volatility. Now, 0:04:39.560 --> 0:04:44.599 volatility is a huge driver of mortgage spreads because mortgage 0:04:44.880 --> 0:04:48.520 borrowers have the option is what it's called an option 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:51.600 to refinance or just not move any time they want. 0:04:52.120 --> 0:04:56.560 So as a result, the higher volatility is, the harder 0:04:56.600 --> 0:04:59.760 it is to hedge that borrower option, and the more 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:02.920 expense of the wider spreads need to be to both 0:05:02.920 --> 0:05:07.200 in tract investors, but also for the rate the lenders 0:05:07.240 --> 0:05:11.120 are willing to offer the primary rate. And on top 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:13.800 of that, you have added to that the fact that 0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:17.719 if inflation is expected to increase, mortgage rates are probably 0:05:17.720 --> 0:05:20.719 going to follow as quickly, which means long term rates 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:24.160 have also risen, as you pointed out, which includes ten 0:05:24.200 --> 0:05:26.680 your treasury. So you have the actual base case rate, 0:05:26.720 --> 0:05:29.400 the ten your Treasury rate rising, and you have mortgage 0:05:29.400 --> 0:05:33.200 spreads widening because of this increase in volatility generated by 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:35.120 the uncertainty of what's going to have with oil and 0:05:35.160 --> 0:05:36.080 the war in general. 0:05:36.320 --> 0:05:38.680 Are you thinking we might see a thirty year back 0:05:38.720 --> 0:05:41.480 at seven percent again sometime soon, especially if the war 0:05:41.560 --> 0:05:42.000 drags on. 0:05:43.920 --> 0:05:46.000 You know that that would be a really tough question. 0:05:46.640 --> 0:05:49.320 I actually didn't see the beginning above seven percent in 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:52.160 the first place. You know, I don't think that's certainly 0:05:52.160 --> 0:05:55.880 the long term equilibrium. I don't have a crystal ball, 0:05:56.680 --> 0:06:01.320 but it does seem to me that the widening of 0:06:01.320 --> 0:06:03.920 mortgage breads that we saw that contributed to how high 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:09.080 mortgage rates got in twenty two twenty three was mostly 0:06:09.200 --> 0:06:12.240 because the Fed had just started running off its portfolio. 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:15.200 It was still in tightening mode, which is certainly not 0:06:15.320 --> 0:06:16.760 my base case expectation. 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:20.200 Oh thanks to Erica Aidelberg, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Mortgage backed 0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:23.200 security strategist. Let's take a look now at some stocks 0:06:23.200 --> 0:06:26.159 making news in the week ahead. I'm Alexis Christoffers with 0:06:26.200 --> 0:06:30.280 Tatiana dari a Bloomberg strategist for Markets Live. Tatiana, you 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:34.080 brought three names with you. Let's begin with if you're 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:35.479 a pet owner, you know them well. 0:06:35.640 --> 0:06:40.760 Chewy Chewey exactly. Chewey will report fourth quarter earnings and 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:44.919 next week, and analysts are expecting a solid profit increase 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:48.240 versus the year ahead. And that may come to how 0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:52.440 the stock revive some of that momentum because it has 0:06:52.520 --> 0:06:56.320 come under pressure this year on concerns over growth and 0:06:56.360 --> 0:07:00.160 the profitability outlook for this year and next year. And 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:03.560 analysted Morgan Stanley expect this print to set the tone 0:07:03.640 --> 0:07:06.520 for the year ahead, and they expect full year guidance 0:07:06.680 --> 0:07:10.000 of about seven to seven and a half of revenue growth. 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:14.240 So remember that number because anything less than that could 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:18.880 come to pressure the stock again. The company you know 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:23.440 has named the new CFO in February reaffirmed its financial outlook, 0:07:23.520 --> 0:07:26.640 so it has tailwinds in place. Its revenue has been 0:07:26.680 --> 0:07:31.320 steadily climbing through the years, even as we've seen consumers 0:07:31.600 --> 0:07:36.920 come under pressure from all prices rising elsewhere. Basically, so 0:07:37.320 --> 0:07:39.880 it has it has a momentum there. It's just that 0:07:40.360 --> 0:07:43.760 when people are looking ahead, they're concerned about consumers pulling 0:07:43.800 --> 0:07:46.880 back now with high oil prices, So we sort of 0:07:46.880 --> 0:07:53.880 need to see revenue outlook and that guidance be lifted 0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:57.760 so that the stock investors feel more reassured. 0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:00.000 That was interesting when you talk about consumer spending, because 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:02.840 sometimes we'll pull back on things for ourselves, but I 0:08:02.840 --> 0:08:05.800 think history has shown people don't necessarily pull back for 0:08:05.840 --> 0:08:10.200 their pets. They're still going to pay for their pets. Also, 0:08:10.560 --> 0:08:14.400 they have their Chewy Vet clinics that I guess are 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:17.720 in stores. I understand that's going to be a bigger 0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:21.000 part of the Chewy story, I guess in twenty twenty six. 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:24.680 Yes, exactly a push there. And they also have their 0:08:25.080 --> 0:08:28.600 sort of revenue or their online platform or you can 0:08:28.600 --> 0:08:33.000 schedule deliveries, and that's also been a big focus for 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:36.839 the company and for the stock. But yet again, as 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:39.439 those growth concerns have been battering the stock, it will 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:42.480 be very important for them to go back to what 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:46.200 analysts have been saying to a beat and raise cadence right, 0:08:46.400 --> 0:08:50.199 which they have not had in recent quarters. We have 0:08:50.240 --> 0:08:52.840 a great function on the terminal where you could see 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:57.720 how results have been coming in pitted against expectations, and 0:08:58.120 --> 0:09:00.720 five or four of the past five have not really 0:09:00.760 --> 0:09:03.679 been great. The last one was better, which sets up 0:09:03.840 --> 0:09:07.640 hopes that this one will come in also better than expiring. 0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:09.480 And just want to add Morgan Stanley kept its overweight 0:09:09.559 --> 0:09:12.360 rating on Chewy, trimming its price target to fifty dollars 0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:15.000 from fifty one, saying the stock is offering a quote 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:19.240 compelling entry point following its recent decline, So Chewy on 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:22.280 the move here in the coming week. Also beyond Meat, 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:25.760 which I know is dropping the name meat from its 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:28.079 from its official title, right, tell us what we can 0:09:28.080 --> 0:09:28.720 expect there. 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:32.480 Well, the maker of alternative meat product is also did 0:09:32.480 --> 0:09:35.840 to report, but expectations here are much lower because they've 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:42.040 already reported preliminary revenue and it came below expectations. With that, 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:45.000 they also said that they will delay the filing of 0:09:45.080 --> 0:09:48.960 their ten K annual report because the company requires additional 0:09:48.960 --> 0:09:52.320 time to complete a review and analysis related to its 0:09:52.400 --> 0:09:57.119 inventory balances. And you know when you get messages like that, 0:09:57.120 --> 0:09:59.840 that always books the market. And this is something that 0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:03.360 this company did not need because if you look at 0:10:03.400 --> 0:10:08.320 the long term chart, the stock has fallen dramatically since 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:12.640 it's much talked IPO in twenty nineteen. It's lost more 0:10:12.679 --> 0:10:16.880 than ninety percent of its value since then. So it 0:10:16.920 --> 0:10:19.560 really doesn't have a good story. It keeps getting worse, 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:22.200 and it doesn't have a good track record when it 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:25.640 comes to earnings either. Four of the past five quarters 0:10:25.679 --> 0:10:29.480 have seen earnings really disappoint expectations and shares fall as 0:10:29.520 --> 0:10:33.000 a result. So the bar is pretty high here for 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:34.040 a surprise. 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:36.240 Yeah, and you know, I know they're trying to expand 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:40.560 beyond fake meat. They're rebranding as Beyond the Plant Protein Company. 0:10:40.600 --> 0:10:43.800 They're introducing these new products like high protein sparkling drinks 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:47.439 and what they call simplified plant protein foods. We'll see 0:10:47.440 --> 0:10:49.200 if it's you know, that's what it takes to turn 0:10:49.240 --> 0:10:52.360 things around. All right, let's squeeze Carnival in here, the 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:53.880 cruise line. How are they doing or how are they 0:10:53.920 --> 0:10:54.600 expected to do? 0:10:54.920 --> 0:10:58.240 Carnival of reports before the ball in March twenty seven. 0:10:58.559 --> 0:11:01.360 What the street wants to know here is how much 0:11:01.400 --> 0:11:05.120 will higher oil prices impact it's your head outlook. This 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:07.280 is sort of the big question when it comes to 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:11.280 earning forecasts just overall. In the S and P. Five hundred, 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:15.240 but specifically to Carnival, Morgan Stanley identified the name as 0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:19.520 the most exposed among cruise liners to oil prices because 0:11:19.520 --> 0:11:23.080 it does not hedge, which they reckon that this would 0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:27.520 translate into about a forty five hit hit to its 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:31.000 EPs outlook, or that's about a twenty percent hit to 0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:34.439 its overall guidance if you want to think in percentage terms. Okay, well, 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:36.480 if you look at the stock, that's about how much 0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:39.599 it has fallen since the war has started. So basically 0:11:39.679 --> 0:11:43.320 you could argue that the market has baked that in already. Okay, 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:47.040 But although this is an estimate, not a confirmation from 0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:49.199 the company, so we'll have to see if that comes 0:11:49.240 --> 0:11:52.080 in a sort of a higher or lower than expected. 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:54.720 But the point is that the market has already baked 0:11:54.720 --> 0:11:57.120 in some bad news. Now we have to see how 0:11:57.200 --> 0:11:58.880 bad will the news actually be. 0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:00.880 And Carnival will have to see whether or not they 0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:03.800 pass those higher fuel costs on to consumers in the 0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:06.240 way that some of the airlines are doing that. I 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:09.880 know some international airlines are charging fuel surcharges, but some 0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:14.320 American airlines, US based airlines, i should say, are adding 0:12:14.320 --> 0:12:16.200 it to the ticket price, to higher ticket prices. And 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:18.400 whether or not that's going to i mean, a slower 0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:20.560 summer travel season. Right now, it doesn't look like it's 0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:22.880 going to be lots to look forward to on the 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:24.720 earnings front in the weeks ahead. We're going to leave 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:27.640 it there are thanks to Tatiana Darier, Bloomberg strategist for 0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:31.000 Markets Live. Coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, there is 0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:34.160 an election in Denmark. This week we bring you a preview. 0:12:34.280 --> 0:12:47.760 I'm Alexis CHRISTOPHERUS and this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg 0:12:47.840 --> 0:12:50.720 Daybreak weekend, our global look ahead at the top stories 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:53.960 for investors in the coming week. I'm Alexis CHRISTOPHERUS. This 0:12:54.000 --> 0:12:57.400 week brings us an election in Denmark, and Daybreak Europe 0:12:57.440 --> 0:12:59.600 anchor Caroline Hepger is here with a preview. 0:12:59.640 --> 0:13:05.400 Caroline Alexis Metafriedrickson's party was polling at historically low numbers, 0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:08.439 but barely a month ago the Danish Prime Minister called 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:09.520 a general election. 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:10.280 Now. 0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:13.520 Proportional representation means that there are more than a dozen 0:13:13.640 --> 0:13:17.880 political parties running in this vote, with governments in Denmark 0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:21.920 usually formed from parties within two main blocks, either the 0:13:21.960 --> 0:13:24.800 blue block on the right or the red block on 0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:28.520 the left. Denmark also faces many of the same issues 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:32.360 in this election as in many other European countries, from 0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:38.280 housing costs to food prices, welfare inequality and immigration. But 0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:42.720 it is President Trump's efforts to control Greenland that have 0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:46.920 created a major foreign polity crisis. As we head into 0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:50.960 Denmark's twenty twenty six election, and joining me now to 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:55.280 discuss is our reporter in Copenhagen, sanah Vas great to 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:58.560 speak to you, Sanna. I just want to ask you 0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:02.520 how important you think these elections are now for Denmark. 0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:06.880 They're very important. Denmark is in the middle. 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:11.480 Of a diplomatic conflict with Donald Trump over Greenland, which 0:14:11.520 --> 0:14:15.960 is part of the Danish Kingdom. Denmark is currently negotiating 0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:19.320 with the US to find a solution to Trump's desire 0:14:19.360 --> 0:14:22.800 for more control over this island, and the next government 0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:25.480 in Denmark will have to deal with the next steps. 0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:28.880 So our Prime Minister Matiflis and she's framed. 0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:32.280 This vote as a decisive election because Danes in the 0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:36.360 next election term will have to define the relationship with 0:14:36.480 --> 0:14:38.960 the US but also the future of. 0:14:39.360 --> 0:14:42.280 The Danish Kingdom. So it's a very important election. 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:47.040 Yes indeed. But then why was the election called quite 0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:47.960 a few months early? 0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:50.200 Yes, that's right. 0:14:50.240 --> 0:14:53.560 I mean in Denmark it's the prime minister who decides 0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:57.120 when to call an election. There is a four year 0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:01.240 constitutional deadline, but it is quite comment to call the 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:03.120 election early when the. 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:06.000 Prime minister sees that the timing. 0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:09.680 Looks politically favorable. And that is the case right now 0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:13.160 for metaphy X now Prime Minister, and it's all tied 0:15:13.200 --> 0:15:16.400 to Trump, and she performed very poorly in the polls 0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:20.520 in December, and then she got this massive boost when 0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:23.960 Trump he started making new threats over Greenland in early January, 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:27.680 and this spat it just really reinforced her image as 0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:32.640 a disciplined and steady leader during periods of national crisis, 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:37.120 and that is something that she's hoping to capsulize on 0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:39.000 with this vote. 0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:43.280 So then the US and President Trump looming over this election. 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:47.720 What are people saying in Denmark and also in Greenland? 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:50.680 And you might explain also that there are some seats 0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:55.160 in the parliament in Denmark, correct for Greenlandic representatives. 0:15:56.400 --> 0:16:00.880 Yeah, Greenland elects two representatives for the Danish parliament and 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:04.240 and and they could definitely play a very important role 0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:09.480 in defining uh the future Danish government and and. 0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:13.000 For sure the future relationship with the US. 0:16:12.720 --> 0:16:15.640 And and the future of Greenland will play it an 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:20.040 important will be an important question in those negotiations generally 0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:23.680 for for both Denmark and Greenland, it's the first time 0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:27.800 and in their modern history where geopolitics, geopolitics is really 0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:32.080 top of mind for voters. And we've seen the topic 0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:33.640 feature and national party. 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:36.040 Leader debates and and that's quite unusual. 0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:40.120 We also saw a poll earlier in the campaign that 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:43.680 found that foreign and defense policy that was the number 0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:47.360 one concern for Danes and and and and so in 0:16:47.400 --> 0:16:49.280 a way, Trump, he really turned. 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:51.400 Foreign policy into a domestic issue. 0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:55.720 And and voters are they're likely to assess politicians on 0:16:56.280 --> 0:17:00.600 their leadership skills and and their capacity to handle the areknown, 0:17:00.760 --> 0:17:05.320 and that is favoring especially the governing parties and the 0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:05.959 Prime minister. 0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:09.199 So then tell me a bit more about who is 0:17:09.280 --> 0:17:14.359 favored to win. According to the polls. 0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:16.399 The Prime Minister Medphals and. 0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:20.320 Her Social Democratic Party looks set to become the biggest 0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:25.200 party by far and that will give her the first 0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:29.440 shot at forming at government. And looking at the polls, 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:32.879 she is the most likely candidate to secure my majority 0:17:32.920 --> 0:17:38.800 backing to make her Prime Minister again. The biggest outstanding question, 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:43.080 I'd say is whether she will return to a traditional 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:47.760 left leaning red block government or look to renew the 0:17:48.320 --> 0:17:52.359 or expand the quite unusual centrist kind of cross block 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:53.800 coalition that we have. 0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:54.359 At the moment. 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:58.280 And one of the biggest challenges for going with renewal 0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:02.040 of this government is that if midflex And has proposed 0:18:02.040 --> 0:18:05.879 to introduce a wealth tax, and it's something that's drawn 0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:09.560 sharp criticism and especially from wealthy people in Denmark. 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:11.919 Some are threatening to leave the country. 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:15.320 But also from the liberal parties who will really struggle 0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:18.720 to enter a coalition on those terms. 0:18:19.320 --> 0:18:20.760 But remember Denmark has. 0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:26.600 A very fragmented political system or political landscape, and there's 0:18:26.840 --> 0:18:28.200 twelve parties. 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:28.399 In the running. 0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:31.240 That leaves the outcome very open to kind of late 0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:36.520 shifts and alliances and policies once coalition negotiations start, and 0:18:36.840 --> 0:18:40.480 that could really reshape the balance of power. So we 0:18:40.520 --> 0:18:44.400 are preparing ourselves for potential surprises once talks begin. 0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:45.399 Hm. 0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:49.280 Hm, that'll be interesting. What about other issues? Though the 0:18:49.600 --> 0:18:53.240 Danish Prime Minister is known for her tough stance on immigration, 0:18:53.960 --> 0:18:57.680 how could the outcome of this election shape Denmark's directional 0:18:57.760 --> 0:18:58.480 mats front? 0:18:59.760 --> 0:19:04.920 Yeah, that's right if Felexon she originally in twenty nineteen 0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:08.760 rose to power in Denmark because she managed to steer 0:19:08.840 --> 0:19:13.879 her Social Democratic Party towards a tougher stance on immigration, 0:19:14.000 --> 0:19:17.800 and she in that way reclaimed working class voters who 0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:19.000 had drifted to the right. 0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:22.320 She's also been very outspoken. 0:19:22.400 --> 0:19:27.240 In the EU pushing for stricter border controls and tougher 0:19:27.359 --> 0:19:32.719 immigration policies, and the election could really shape Denmark's direction 0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:37.640 on this topic in the future, especially if Felexon were 0:19:37.720 --> 0:19:40.560 to pivot to the left to create a more kind 0:19:40.560 --> 0:19:45.480 of left leaning majority, it could complicate her ability to 0:19:45.640 --> 0:19:49.720 maintain this stract approach to immigration. So that's definitely something 0:19:49.880 --> 0:19:52.480 that not just the Danes of following, but for sure 0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:54.240 also across Europe. 0:19:55.800 --> 0:19:58.879 So then what role do you think that Denmark wants 0:19:58.920 --> 0:20:01.680 to play then or will all want to play in 0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:06.000 conversations around the EU and the US. 0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:10.520 I think it striking comment that Prime Minister Metaphlags made 0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:13.439 in a debate on TV quite recently was that the 0:20:13.600 --> 0:20:19.280 US is no longer Denmark's closest ally. Instead, she's called 0:20:19.320 --> 0:20:22.880 for closer collaboration in the EU but also with other 0:20:23.240 --> 0:20:27.439 like minded nations such as Canada for example. And we 0:20:27.480 --> 0:20:33.160 are seeing also various ways in which sentiment in Denmark, 0:20:33.320 --> 0:20:38.840 especially on defense and EU collaboration, it's really changing as 0:20:39.440 --> 0:20:43.360 Denmark is adapting to new global order, I mean Denmark. 0:20:43.720 --> 0:20:46.879 It's a very good example is the Denmark earlier this 0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:51.720 month entered into an agreement with France and nuclear deterrence, 0:20:51.760 --> 0:20:55.000 and that is quite a dramatic move for a country 0:20:55.040 --> 0:20:59.040 that has long been opposed to atomic weapons. But it's 0:20:59.080 --> 0:21:01.840 also an example of the changes that Denmark is now 0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:05.320 seeing necessary as it realizes it can't rely on the 0:21:05.400 --> 0:21:09.960 US for security and it needs to build deeper alliances elsewhere. 0:21:10.320 --> 0:21:13.920 Whoever leads Denmark next though, yes they'll be thinking about 0:21:13.920 --> 0:21:17.680 the EU, but surely front and center will be any 0:21:17.720 --> 0:21:20.960 possibility of a clash with the US. You've been reporting 0:21:21.000 --> 0:21:24.800 about the idea that there were actually deeper preparations by 0:21:24.840 --> 0:21:29.239 Copenhagen for some kind of the possibility of some kind 0:21:29.280 --> 0:21:31.160 of military confrontation with America. 0:21:32.000 --> 0:21:36.520 We've seen new information come out this week. A Danish 0:21:36.760 --> 0:21:40.480 broadcast that R reported quite extensively on some of the 0:21:40.520 --> 0:21:45.800 preparations that Copenhagen had been undertaking earlier this year. In 0:21:45.840 --> 0:21:51.000 the event of a potential US attack on Greenland, for example, 0:21:51.640 --> 0:21:56.320 Denmark deployed troops with live and ammunition. They were prepared 0:21:56.400 --> 0:22:00.560 to blow up airport runways in Greenland to prevent US 0:22:00.560 --> 0:22:04.119 forces from landing if Trump chose to take the island 0:22:04.160 --> 0:22:08.679 by force. Dr also reported that Denmark dispatched blood supplies 0:22:08.800 --> 0:22:13.359 to treat the wounded if if fighting were to break out. 0:22:14.520 --> 0:22:20.960 It really shows how worried Copenhagen were back in January, 0:22:21.040 --> 0:22:26.399 when Trump was most vocal in his threats. Denmark was 0:22:26.480 --> 0:22:31.960 extremely worried, and as Danish Prime Minister made flags and 0:22:31.960 --> 0:22:36.240 said just this week, negotiations underway. We hope for an agreement. 0:22:36.320 --> 0:22:41.480 But Trump's desire to take over Greenland remains intact, so 0:22:42.200 --> 0:22:46.200 clearly that nervousness has not gone away, and a future 0:22:46.280 --> 0:22:50.520 government may well have to have to deal with the 0:22:50.560 --> 0:22:54.520 outcome of no deal or potential deal with Trump. 0:22:55.880 --> 0:22:59.280 So then finally, this vote is also going to be 0:22:59.480 --> 0:23:04.359 very into seeing tests about whether campaigning on an anti 0:23:04.480 --> 0:23:08.080 TARP message can work. Perhaps a lot of other countries 0:23:08.119 --> 0:23:10.680 will be watching this. What do you think that they're 0:23:10.720 --> 0:23:12.879 going to be thinking about and looking at when it 0:23:12.880 --> 0:23:15.480 comes to the Danish example, Yeah. 0:23:15.520 --> 0:23:19.359 I think the Danish example is very interesting because even 0:23:19.400 --> 0:23:24.200 though foreign security policy has taken on greater urgency, it's 0:23:24.320 --> 0:23:28.800