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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast.

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Speaker 3: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway.

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Speaker 2: Tracy now that I'm like a middle aged old man,

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Speaker 2: I don't know. I've been getting really into reading history lately.

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Speaker 3: Is it Roman history? No?

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Speaker 2: No, it's actually worse than Roman history. I've been reading

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Speaker 2: a lot of twentieth century history. And the problem, well,

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Speaker 2: one problem is a bit of a diversion. But one

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Speaker 2: problem with reading twentieth century history is that I'm eventually

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Speaker 2: going to have to get around to really learning what

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Speaker 2: World War two is all about, and then I'm going

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Speaker 2: to be a fifty year old man.

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Speaker 3: Reading You have to fulfill your destiny.

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Speaker 4: I know.

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Speaker 2: So I'm going to be a fifty year old man

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Speaker 2: in a few years reading World War two books and

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Speaker 2: watching World War or two documentaries. So, but yes, I've

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Speaker 2: been reading a lot of twentieth century history lately.

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Speaker 3: You know how you know that you are really old,

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Speaker 3: It's when you start reading twentieth century history books and

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Speaker 3: realize that you were like there and sort of participating

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Speaker 3: in that time period.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's so funny that you mentioned this because this

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Speaker 2: is increasingly dawning on me when I read history. And again,

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Speaker 2: slight sidetrack, but I've mentioned before a couple of times.

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Speaker 2: I lived in Malaysia for a year in nineteen eighty

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Speaker 2: nine and nineteen ninety and I discovered in reading history

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Speaker 2: recently that I don't know if they call it the

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Speaker 2: Malaysian Civil War, but the Ultimate Peace Agreement between the

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Speaker 2: Malaysian government and the Communist Party of Malaysia was signed

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Speaker 2: in nineteen eighty nine that ended that conflict, And so

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Speaker 2: I was there. I had no idea, but reading his.

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Speaker 3: Grade school Joe was living through history.

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Speaker 2: I was, and it sort of reminds I think this

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Speaker 2: is an important thing that I've realized reading more history,

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Speaker 2: is that the modern world as we know it is

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Speaker 2: so young. It's basically like the length of a person's life,

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Speaker 2: depending on where you want to start it. Like we're

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Speaker 2: just getting started here.

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Speaker 3: So the history we're going to be talking about specifically

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Speaker 3: is China. And I was thinking about this because the

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Speaker 3: first time I went to China was in nineteen ninety four,

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Speaker 3: and it was completely different to how it is now,

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Speaker 3: Like there were still rickshaws on the street, Friendship stores existed.

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Speaker 3: Friendship stores still existed in the early two thousands when

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Speaker 3: I was there, and I don't know, do you know

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Speaker 3: what a friendship store is?

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Speaker 2: I can guess.

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Speaker 3: So it's like where foreigners were basically allowed to go

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Speaker 3: and like purchase specific goods. They had a lot of

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Speaker 3: like tourist tat and stuff like that. But if you

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Speaker 3: went to a friendship store in Beijing in the early

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Speaker 3: two thousands, it was basically like going to the East Bloc.

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Speaker 3: It was like a full employment program where you would

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Speaker 3: find a salesperson on the floor and you would say,

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Speaker 3: I want this item, and then they would give you

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Speaker 3: a little like token or receipt and then you would

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Speaker 3: take that to the cashier and pay, and then someone

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Speaker 3: else would bring the item to you. So yeah, that

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Speaker 3: was in the two thousands, And now when I think

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Speaker 3: about Beijing, like it has changed completely, Like stuff that

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Speaker 3: used to be one story neighborhoods full of bars like

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Speaker 3: san Ley Turn is now like luxury shopping centers totally.

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Speaker 2: So this is the other thing too, which is that

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Speaker 2: you know, we talk a lot about China right now

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Speaker 2: for obvious reasons, but I kind of feel that like,

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Speaker 2: if we're going to talk about today. There probably is

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Speaker 2: some justification for like how we got here, and I

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Speaker 2: have to admit, you know, my understanding is really very

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Speaker 2: rudimentary and limited. Like in my mind, it's basically like

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Speaker 2: Maud died Doung Hopeng liberalized the economy, that was the

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Speaker 2: economy plugged into global.

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Speaker 3: Idiot sunflower seeds happened.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and then they allowed a business and then they

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Speaker 2: entered the wto in here. And I would say, I

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Speaker 2: know basically four facts about the history of China, and

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Speaker 2: those you know, nineteen seventy eight wto now, so maybe

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Speaker 2: that's just three. And so I actually think it's important

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Speaker 2: to sort of deepen our understanding of how we got

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Speaker 2: to the China that we are so deeply connected to today.

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Speaker 3: I am in favor of you using the podcast as

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Speaker 3: an excuse to read a bunch of history books.

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Speaker 2: It's great, it's other.

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Speaker 3: Manifest your middle aged self. That's fine, we should do it.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's better because if I have to read books,

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Speaker 2: that means I'm not just scrolling Twitter all the time.

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Speaker 2: So if I have to prepare for episodes anyway, we're

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Speaker 2: going to be speaking with one of the co authors

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Speaker 2: of the new book came out in October The Great Transformation,

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Speaker 2: China's road from revolution to reform. And I would say

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Speaker 2: it complexifies a bit the very rudimentary story of the

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Speaker 2: last I don't know, forty plus years of China. It's

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Speaker 2: more than just three specific dates. It complexifies that story.

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Speaker 2: It sort of fleshes it out in a big way.

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Speaker 2: The co authors are Odd Arned Westdad and Chen John.

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Speaker 2: The first time on odd Lots that we'll have a

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Speaker 2: guest with the name odd.

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Speaker 3: Surely the perfect guest.

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Speaker 2: So it's truly the perfect guest. So we're speaking with

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Speaker 2: professor of history at Yale, Odd Earned west Dad. Professor Westdad,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much for coming on the podcast.

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Speaker 4: Thank you for having me on you you almost had

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Speaker 4: to write we had It's truly, it's really a shame

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Speaker 4: that you haven't had me on before, I mean your

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Speaker 4: podcast with me as you first guest.

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Speaker 3: We had to wait for Joe to enter his history phase.

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Speaker 2: That's right, but you should have. You should have been

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Speaker 2: the first guest. So why this book, because I imagine

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Speaker 2: if I go on Amazon, there are probably hundreds of

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Speaker 2: books that are some version of how China reformed, How

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Speaker 2: China went from being this backwards economy to dynamic capitalist economy.

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Speaker 2: I know it's been written about in various forms of

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Speaker 2: numerous numerous times. Why did you and your co author

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Speaker 2: still feel at this point that this was an important

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Speaker 2: story or collection of stories to tell.

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Speaker 4: I think there are two reasons. The first one is

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Speaker 4: quite personal in a way. I mean it almost goes

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Speaker 4: back to what you were talking about a minute ago.

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Speaker 4: So I first came to China as and I changed

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Speaker 4: student back in the late nineteen seventies and Changen. Of course,

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Speaker 4: my co Walton lived there during that period, so this

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Speaker 4: is away so personal process. Well, we lived through parts

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Speaker 4: of the time period that we are talking about in

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Speaker 4: this book, and there is no better incentive, as you

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Speaker 4: just touched upon, to go back to look at history

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Speaker 4: again than trying to understand the period that you lived through.

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Speaker 4: So that's the first reason. And the second reason is,

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Speaker 4: of course that we think we do it better than

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Speaker 4: anyone else. Do it better than anyone else because we

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Speaker 4: have more access to sources and more access to information

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Speaker 4: about what actually happened during that time period. So as

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Speaker 4: you read the book, you can see how, at least

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Speaker 4: when we do this as well as we can, we

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Speaker 4: are able to get on the inside of many of

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Speaker 4: the things that took place during that time period and

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Speaker 4: show the complexities, I mean, show how complex that period

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Speaker 4: of very early Chinese reform and opening was and in

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Speaker 4: many ways how contingent the process was, and how surprising

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Speaker 4: it is in more than one sense that we ended

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Speaker 4: up where we are today.

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Speaker 3: So speaking of access, you mentioned this, I think in

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Speaker 3: the very beginning of the book, but you started researching

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Speaker 3: this in twenty ten, and you said that the research

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Speaker 3: process and the access you had kind of changed over

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Speaker 3: the next I guess thirteen or fourteen years or so.

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Speaker 3: Give us a little bit more detail, like, as a

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Speaker 3: researcher of Chinese history, how have things actually evolved for you?

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Speaker 4: That's right. We started thinking about this and started researching

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Speaker 4: it in the early twenty teens, and of course back

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Speaker 4: then we had much better access to sources, much better

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Speaker 4: access to archives, to talk to people, to travel around

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Speaker 4: and country, to have informal discussions with people who would

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Speaker 4: be in the know than what is the case today.

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Speaker 4: So China has really since twenty sixteen seventeen, there were

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Speaker 4: closed down in terms of access to historical sources of

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Speaker 4: all kinds. So we were lucky. We started this process

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Speaker 4: quite early on and had some good years in which

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Speaker 4: we actually could collect material. Then we did something really silly.

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Speaker 4: We put it aside for other projects, hoping that we

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Speaker 4: would get even better access in a few years. That

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Speaker 4: happens sometimes that you make the wrong call on these

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Speaker 4: kinds of things, and instead, of course, it got much

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Speaker 4: was So what we had to do was to go

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Speaker 4: back to some of the material that we had gathered

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Speaker 4: in that early time period before we switch to other

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Speaker 4: projects that we then completed before we returned to this book,

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Speaker 4: and then try to feel that in the best we

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Speaker 4: could with all the materials we could get now. But

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Speaker 4: the level of access, the level of information is very

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Speaker 4: different today from what you could get pulled off back then.

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Speaker 2: So I want to get into some of the content

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Speaker 2: of the book obviously, And like I said in the intro,

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Speaker 2: you know, I have this very cartoonish vision of history

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Speaker 2: in my head where Mao dies, Don Chopeg becomes the

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Speaker 2: new leader of the country after a little bit of

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Speaker 2: tension and turmoil, and then China liberalizes.

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Speaker 3: So one of the sort of eye.

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Speaker 2: Opening or sort of mind expanding moments in the book,

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Speaker 2: you talk about the cultural revolution, and how even there,

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Speaker 2: you know, we think of that as going I guess

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Speaker 2: from nineteen sixty six to sometime in the nineteen seventy.

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Speaker 2: You argue that the real intensity of it was two

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Speaker 2: years where the sort of the youth of China rose

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Speaker 2: up against the old cadres within the Communist Party. But

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Speaker 2: even in that time, amid some of this incredible turmoil

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Speaker 2: that the Communist Party was going through under mau, some

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Speaker 2: of the seeds of I guess capitalism were actually planted

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Speaker 2: in that turmoil.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right. I mean that I think is one

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Speaker 4: of the contributions of this book. I mean, your summarized

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Speaker 4: history of what happened. It is not wrong, okay, It's

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Speaker 4: just that it was really difficult and, as I said,

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Speaker 4: very contingent in terms of the various things that are

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Speaker 4: happening to get from warm to the next of those stages.

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Speaker 4: And one of the things that we do show in

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Speaker 4: the book is how the cultural revolution, which was undertaken,

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Speaker 4: of course, in order to solidify Maltadome's leadership and attack

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Speaker 4: the old leaders in the Communist Party who he regarded

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Speaker 4: as being too backle to take China into his new

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Speaker 4: Communist paradise. This cultural revolution had effects that were in

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Speaker 4: no way for sea, and part of them was in

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Speaker 4: many ways the destruction of all China. I mean, they

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Speaker 4: got rid of many of the traditional ways of thinking

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Speaker 4: and loyalties, and much of the patriarchal approaches within families.

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Speaker 4: All of this because of these political campaigns that they undertook,

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Speaker 4: directed almost against any kind of authority except most of

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Speaker 4: ohn authority. And in a strange kind of way, when

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Speaker 4: you get into the nineteen seventies, Mao's still alive, still

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Speaker 4: ruling from Beijing, things start to change in some places

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Speaker 4: from the ground up. So this is turning to markets

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Speaker 4: almost as a kind of revolutionary acts out of desperation,

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Speaker 4: because people along the coast, in the south, in the

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Speaker 4: areas that have some experience with capitalism and with markets,

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Speaker 4: they are worried that when this campaign ends, things have

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Speaker 4: got to get even worse. And some of these people

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Speaker 4: have been starving, you know, back during the Great Leap

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Speaker 4: forward in the late fifties and early sixties. So they

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Speaker 4: start rating, they start building up the opportunities that they

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Speaker 4: can take for themselves. In a little way. I mean,

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Speaker 4: this is not a predominant act in China in the

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Speaker 4: early nineteen seventies, but it did see something that is

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Speaker 4: incredibly important for the future, and then comes into full

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Speaker 4: flow after the party takes a step back off the

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Speaker 4: mal died and opens up for these console reforms happening

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Speaker 4: on an until boy Scain.

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Speaker 3: I apologize in advance for asking a hypothetical, but do

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Speaker 3: you think the economic liberalization of the late nineteen seventies

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Speaker 3: early nineteen eighties would have been able to happen or

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Speaker 3: would have happened in some form if China hadn't experienced

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Speaker 3: the Cultural Revolution and all the I guess emotional trauma

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Speaker 3: and political chaos that came with it.

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Speaker 4: It wouldn't have happened when it happened, that's for sure.

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Speaker 4: That's not even a hypothetical. I mean, I think if

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Speaker 4: China had continued basic along the Soviet model of development,

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Speaker 4: which is what they took up after the People's REPROBLEBM

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Speaker 4: was put in place in the late nineteen forties, Soviet

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Speaker 4: style everything right, planning, centralization, the wholer. I don't think

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Speaker 4: the kind of reform that we saw in the late

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Speaker 4: seventies and nuineteen eighties would have happened because there wouldn't

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Speaker 4: have been any fundamental reason to undertake it. I mean,

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Speaker 4: China would probably have chugged along in the same kind

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Speaker 4: of way as the Soviet Union did until some point

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Speaker 4: when that model started breaking down. Now, I'm not saying

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Speaker 4: that the Cultural Revolution was a necessary condition for these

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Speaker 4: changes in pay place, but the period of Cultural Revolution

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Speaker 4: activism did in many ways prepare the ground for the

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Speaker 4: timing of this and when it was to happen alst

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Speaker 4: be because you know, China at the end of the culture

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Speaker 4: ablution was a deserted thing. You know, when I first

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Speaker 4: arrived there in nineteen seventy nine, this was a dirt

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Speaker 4: poor and terrorized country, you know, a poorer in terms

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Speaker 4: of income to capital and most African countries and things

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Speaker 4: are getting work not that. So that kind of desperation

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Speaker 4: at all levels of Chinese society fitted into these changes.

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Speaker 4: Something had to be done, and going back to the

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Speaker 4: Soviet model of development as it existed only on when

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Speaker 4: you get into the nineteen eighties does not seem as

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Speaker 4: a viable composition.

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Speaker 2: What does it mean when you talk about history being contingent?

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Speaker 2: You use that word a couple of times, and I

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Speaker 2: actually don't know if I fully understand what that means.

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Speaker 2: But when you're telling these stories or this story and

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Speaker 2: you're keeping in mind the contingency and history, can you

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Speaker 2: talk a little bit more about this idea.

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Speaker 4: So you'll see from the book that we go in

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Speaker 4: and out from the sort of micro to the macro

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Speaker 4: level of telling history. And if you look at the

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Speaker 4: night and the coup against the radicals, the softball gang

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Speaker 4: of four within the party took place, which we described

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Speaker 4: in some detail almost you know what happens from hour

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Speaker 4: to hour.

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Speaker 2: That right, This was the moment in which the left

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Speaker 2: faction after maud Dies was arrested and allowed for a

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Speaker 2: sort of more moderate path to emerge.

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Speaker 4: That's right. And it was in effect the military coup,

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Speaker 4: and it was undertaken by the military and the security

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Speaker 4: forces against the people who himself had put in charge

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Speaker 4: of the party, including his widow was most prominent of

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Speaker 4: all jiang Qin. Now that night, the following few days,

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Speaker 4: things could have ended up very differently. In Shanghai, the

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Speaker 4: biggest city in China by far, was still under control

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Speaker 4: of the radicals. There were military units that supported the

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Speaker 4: radical approach to politics. This could have ended up very

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Speaker 4: differently from what it did. And as we described in

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Speaker 4: the in the books, some of the protos, some of

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Speaker 4: the coup makers themselves in those days that followed the

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Speaker 4: coup itself, were completely surprised by how little resistance there

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Speaker 4: had been from the left and how chales there had

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Speaker 4: been on the streets. So that's what I mean with

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Speaker 4: it being contingent. I mean, this is something that obviously

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Speaker 4: connects to the larger picture that we see today, going

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Speaker 4: back to your sort of three level version of what

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Speaker 4: happened right in China, But it didn't seem that obvious

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Speaker 4: at the time, and it could have gone in very

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Speaker 4: different directions from what we're seeing today.

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Speaker 3: How important was the fraying of the relationship between China

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Speaker 3: and the Soviet Union in the sort of nineteen sixties

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Speaker 3: early nineteen seventies to spurring or catalyzing that opening up,

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Speaker 3: Because it does feel like the sudden emergence of the

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Speaker 3: Soviet Union as an external enemy. It feels like that

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Speaker 3: led China in some respects to open up to the

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Speaker 3: US and some other countries.

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Speaker 4: This is a sort of trajectory that I think is

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Speaker 4: really important to get right because what Mao and his

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Speaker 4: group of leaders did in the late nineteen sixties was

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Speaker 4: to turn to the United States as an ally pseudo

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Speaker 4: ally security ally against the Soviet Union because they were

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Speaker 4: so deadly afraid that there would be a war with

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Speaker 4: the Soviets, a war that China certainly would have lost,

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Speaker 4: given the state that the Italians communists themselves had put

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Speaker 4: China into during the Cultural Revolution. So what Mao did

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Speaker 4: was to turn to the enemy far away in the

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Speaker 4: United States to help backing against an enemy much closer

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Speaker 4: to home, the Soviet Union, which that had this falling

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Speaker 4: out with mainly for our geological reasons. From Mao's perspective,

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Speaker 4: this was always intended to be a strictly security oriented

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Speaker 4: pseudo alliance right it was the right state against the

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Speaker 4: Soviet Union. Mao, to the end of the States, was

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Speaker 4: puzzled that the United States would support the real Communists

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Speaker 4: meaning him, against the thing communists meaning the Soviet Union.

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Speaker 4: But as long as they were willing to do that,

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Speaker 4: he was certainly willing to reap burnefit. But he never

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Speaker 4: intended that this would have any effect in terms of

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Speaker 4: the increasingly radical communist direction that he was taking for

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Speaker 4: China internally domestically. So that's when what happens in nineteen

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Speaker 4: seventy six. After Mouse. That becomes so significant because the

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Speaker 4: people who then took over, they thought, aha, we have

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Speaker 4: this relationship with the United States. They are supporting us

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Speaker 4: for their own reasons in the Cold War against the

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Speaker 4: Soviet Union. We can now also make use of this

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Speaker 4: to suit the charge Chinese reform. Right, if it hadn't

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Speaker 4: been for that relationship strictly security orialited that already existed

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Speaker 4: between China and the United States, I doubt that that

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Speaker 4: would be possible. So it's very important point about the

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Speaker 4: longer term US China relationships to think about that origin

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Speaker 4: and how this actually got started, very different from the

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Speaker 4: way most people think about it, where the security element

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Speaker 4: and the reform element that sort of conflated into one.

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Speaker 2: It's also just hard in twenty twenty four to imagine

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Speaker 2: that various communist states would not be natural allies. And

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Speaker 2: of course China after the Vietnam War, China also went

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Speaker 2: to war against Vietnam. The fact that they're so concerned

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Speaker 2: about the Soviet invasion, it just sort of this fascinating

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Speaker 2: dimension that I don't think fits neatly into our heads.

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Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 2: I also read your co author's book. He recently wrote

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Speaker 2: a great biography of Joe and Lae, and it occurs

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Speaker 2: to me like reading that book and the new book. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: I think Mao associated ideologically with the left faction and

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Speaker 2: the CCP and the Gang of Four, etc. But he

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Speaker 2: always seemed to keep a couple of I don't know

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Speaker 2: if the word is liberals, but to some extent liberals

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Speaker 2: around So Joe he never got purged, even though it

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Speaker 2: didn't seem like Mao particularly liked him. For much of

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Speaker 2: his life. Liberals and dun Chopeng got purged multiple times,

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Speaker 2: but never lost his membership of the Communist Party and

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Speaker 2: always seemed to find his way back even during the

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Speaker 2: Mao era. Why was it that, despite his ideological predilections

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Speaker 2: towards the left, that in these important roles he couldn't

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Speaker 2: bring himself to purge some of these perhaps more reformist

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Speaker 2: minded characters.

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Speaker 4: Because he needed to have things stop. I mean, Mao

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Speaker 4: wasn't just an audiologue, which was the most important aspect

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Speaker 4: of him. I think when you look at his historical role,

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Speaker 4: he was also the leader of a country, and he

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Speaker 4: needed to get certain things to work within the country

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Speaker 4: or within the pup and for that, having seen time

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Speaker 4: and again that his ideological allies were not particularly good

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Speaker 4: at this. They were good at reciting Marx and Lenin,

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Speaker 4: but they were not particularly good at running things. He

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Speaker 4: needed people like Joe and I. He needed people like

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Speaker 4: Dung Show King to get Kingstom. But as chan Jen

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Speaker 4: Great Joe in biography shows very clearly, there were limits

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Speaker 4: to how far he would go in working with people

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Speaker 4: like Joe. Or he was willing to work with them

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Speaker 4: as long as they served his purposes, and if there

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Speaker 4: was any sense that they actually tried to have a

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Speaker 4: direct political influence above or different from his, they would

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Speaker 4: get into trouble. So I'm not sure if talken liberals

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Speaker 4: here is the right term. I mean liberals in terms

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Speaker 4: of their thinking about politics. These people served, as long

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Speaker 4: as he was alive, served as gelemen, and they served

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Speaker 4: him at his leisure. So if he got a suspicion

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Speaker 4: with them, as he did so many other people, that

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Speaker 4: they were not serving his radical interests, he would act

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Speaker 4: against them.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned earlier that your book brings together the macro

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Speaker 3: and the micro, and in terms of the micro, it

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Speaker 3: reminded me a lot of second hand time which is

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Speaker 3: an oral history of the end of the Soviet Union,

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Speaker 3: and there are lots of stories in there about individual

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Speaker 3: experiences and entrepreneurs who suddenly are starting their businesses in

394
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Speaker 3: the post communist period and things like that. I've been

395
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Speaker 3: trying to get Joe to read this book a lot time.

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Speaker 3: It's amazing. But can you talk to us a little

397
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Speaker 3: bit more about the individual stories that you heard from

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Speaker 3: this particular period in Chinese history.

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Speaker 4: So there are many stories, and both Jan and I

400
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Speaker 4: are the kind of historians who are storytellers. We like

401
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Speaker 4: to tell these stories. We like to focus on individuals

402
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Speaker 4: and their experiences, and that's of course what sets this

403
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Speaker 4: period upon. It's such an incredibly dramatic era. I mean,

404
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 4: first to count revolution and instants, and then this period

405
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Speaker 4: of almost unbelievable change, which I remember very well myself.

406
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Speaker 4: I mean, from one day to the next, things that

407
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Speaker 4: have been seen as being true forever were no longer true, right,

408
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Speaker 4: And things changed so very quickly, and entrepreneurs who had

409
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Speaker 4: a few weeks earlier had been put in prison for

410
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Speaker 4: their activities held up as heroes of economic development. Right.

411
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Speaker 4: That was China during this time period, and it's wonderfully

412
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Speaker 4: fertile ground for historians who like to tell stories, so

413
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Speaker 4: we tell some of these. Maybe some of the most

414
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Speaker 4: fascinating ones that we came across are the ones of

415
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Speaker 4: these early entrepreneurs, I mean people who get started even

416
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Speaker 4: before the political changes in Beijing have taken place, very

417
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 4: often coming out of collective enterprises of some sort, people's

418
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Speaker 4: communes or whatever you have, and finding that they were

419
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Speaker 4: were pretty good at doing what they were set to do.

420
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Speaker 4: We have one example in there, which is one little

421
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Speaker 4: tract or repair shop that turned out to be incredibly

422
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Speaker 4: good at repairing tractors in Guangdong Province in the south

423
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Speaker 4: of China, and then started gradually to get payment in

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Speaker 4: kind kind of bartering system their services against a little

425
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Speaker 4: bit of steel or a little bit of machinery or

426
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Speaker 4: some silk and that right which they could and trade

427
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Speaker 4: or for a while they could actually smuggle it into

428
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Speaker 4: Hong Kong and trade it there. By the mid nineteen seventies,

429
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Speaker 4: these folks have a Hong Kong Bank account right well

430
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Speaker 4: before anything has happened in Beijing in terms sorry for

431
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Speaker 4: so if these guys had been caught, they would probably

432
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Speaker 4: have been shocked, right for smuggling and currency for when

433
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Speaker 4: the reform really gets started in nineteen seventy eight, they

434
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Speaker 4: have a leg up, right, and they can do things

435
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 4: that no one else can, and now they're heroes. So

436
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 4: this is the origins of one of the biggest companies

437
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 4: in China today. So these are the kinds of stories

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Speaker 4: that we'd like to tell. I mean at the political

439
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,360
Speaker 4: level as well. I mean, one of the most fascinating

440
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:41,639
Speaker 4: people that we came across is who are Wokong? The

441
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 4: guy who became somewhat unwillingly, most handkicked successful, and who

442
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 4: was actually quite a decent leader in many ways, not

443
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 4: very imaginative, not of the kind of dynamism that Don had,

444
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:57,439
Speaker 4: but still probably someone who was annecessary figure, you know,

445
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 4: in order to facilitate that station. Yeah, that happened in

446
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:03,360
Speaker 4: the in the late nineties.

447
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I get the impression to reading about him that

448
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 2: obviously he was in a difficult position having to uphold

449
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 2: MoU's legacy, who's pushed aside eventually more or less by

450
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 2: Don Chopang, but also sort of went gradually and didn't

451
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 2: put up a huge fight. That probably saved a lot

452
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 2: of turmol, you know, speaking of somebody these early companies.

453
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 2: I hadn't realized that the China's number one electrical appliance manufacturer.

454
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm pronounce to you right, but mydea,

455
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,360
Speaker 2: it looks like that was actually founded in nineteen sixty eight,

456
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 2: as you point out in the book. So really, I mean,

457
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 2: here's this gigantic, publicly traded company and it was founded

458
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 2: right in the heart of the Cultural Revolution.

459
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, those are I mean, those were perhaps some of

460
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,119
Speaker 4: the most surprising examples. I mean they're not many of

461
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 4: I mean, we should be careful with not exaggerate. Okay,

462
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 4: this is not an attempt that to rehabilitating the control revolution,

463
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 4: but it was possible, under extraordinary circumstances and by extraordinary people,

464
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 4: to few things that probably early on could not be on.

465
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 4: I mean, they didn't do it big because the Communist

466
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 4: Party wanted them to do it. They did it because

467
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 4: the Communist Party lost control and couldn't go on with

468
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 4: the kind of centralized planning that they had done before.

469
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 4: Not everywhere and at all times anyway. So media is

470
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,520
Speaker 4: a good example of that, and I'm sure there were hundreds,

471
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 4: if not thousands, of these startups cultural revolution era startups

472
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 4: that didn't succeed, or these people were caught and ended

473
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 4: up in prison camps or whatever. Right, so we shouldn't

474
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 4: overstate the countryvoid importance of these attempts at entrepreneurships. Many

475
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,439
Speaker 4: of them ended up not going anywhere, but there was

476
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:43,680
Speaker 4: this opportunity among those that survived to have that fundamental

477
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 4: advantage over others when then countrywide national reform came about

478
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 4: in the late nineteen seventies. And that actually connects to

479
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,640
Speaker 4: a point about who are go Phone because at that point,

480
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 4: normally in Chinese politics, someone who fell from grace the

481
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 4: way who all Go Phone did would have met with

482
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:06,639
Speaker 4: quite a terrible fate. Who allowed himself to be replaced

483
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 4: at the top because he simply taught it was better

484
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 4: for China that it went in the direction that it

485
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 4: did peacefully, and then spent the rest of his life

486
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 4: cultivating grapes in his residence in Beijing. He became one

487
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 4: of China's foremost experts of native grape varieties, a subject

488
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 4: of which he published at least two articles. Of course,

489
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 4: andro pseudonym, So you know, this kind of thing earlier

490
00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 4: on in China would have be don't think given the

491
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:37,720
Speaker 4: cut throat aspects of Chinese politics.

492
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 3: I didn't realize that China had native grape varieties, so

493
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 3: that's interesting, okay, But just on this point, what was

494
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:03,679
Speaker 3: the downside for individu rules in accepting market liberalization, Because

495
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,159
Speaker 3: nowadays we talk a lot about the social compact in China,

496
00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 3: the idea that okay, maybe people don't have as many

497
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 3: democratic rights as in other parts of the world, but

498
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,479
Speaker 3: the promise from the CCP is that we're all going

499
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 3: to get rich. And it feels like in the nineteen

500
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 3: seventies nineteen eighties there was some loss of a social

501
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,919
Speaker 3: safety net that came about as a result of the

502
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 3: promise that like, Okay, you're not going to get as

503
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 3: much welfare social welfare, but you're going to get a

504
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 3: chance to become really, really wealthy.

505
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 4: And that was, of course part of this great transformation

506
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 4: that we're talking about, is what happened when much of

507
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 4: that social welfirm net disappeared. It was a very brutal process.

508
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 4: I mean, we have a tendency I think in this

509
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,399
Speaker 4: country and knows what to think about Chinese reform as

510
00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 4: the good reform in terms of results, and Russian reform

511
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 4: is the bad reform. Right where things went wrong after

512
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 4: the collapse of the solid Union. But these two are

513
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 4: in many ways much more similar, we discovered than what

514
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 4: they generally have been taken to be. The desperation that

515
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 4: you find among a lot of Chinese when these social

516
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 4: welfare systems went away, mainly in the late eighties and nineties,

517
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 4: in the early two thousand was very profound. It was

518
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 4: a market revolution, but as all market revolutions, it has

519
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 4: its winners and its users. And what was remarkable about

520
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 4: the transformation in China was that when one went through

521
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 4: that first period of relative hardship, then of course the

522
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 4: general economy started to pick up, giving more people a

523
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 4: chance to enter into the middle class. But these two

524
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 4: time periods are not the same. There was a period

525
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 4: of real hardship to begin with, and then quite a

526
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 4: bit later this opportunity for many people still not everyone

527
00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 4: still draw up about four hundred to five hundred million

528
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 4: poor people in China, a lot of people, but for

529
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 4: many to take that step into division justice. And that's

530
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 4: in a way the story of Channel's reformed that they

531
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 4: were able to make that jump, while in Russia, most

532
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 4: of the efforts that setting up I'm of the economy

533
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:16,959
Speaker 4: that's actually worked domestically failed.

534
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,239
Speaker 2: So one thing that people say a lot is that

535
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 2: the Chinese Communist Party for a long time up until

536
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 2: the day, is obsessed with the fall of the Soviet

537
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 2: Union and figuring out how to avoid a similar collapse

538
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 2: at some point, and part of me wonders, like, the

539
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 2: two countries seem so different and the circumstances seem so

540
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 2: different that it's like hard for me to like say, like, oh,

541
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:42,240
Speaker 2: if you do this, then you do get that outcome,

542
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 2: and like who knows. But there is some school of

543
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 2: thought that part of the problem with Soviet reforms starting

544
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 2: under Gorbachov was the sort of political liberalization that maybe

545
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 2: economic liberalization is okay markets, but you still need that

546
00:29:55,800 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 2: strong central party, and that maybe Orbitschov's mistake was doing

547
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 2: both at once, or maybe doing the political liberalization at all,

548
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:08,959
Speaker 2: et cetera. You talk also in your conclusion about some

549
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 2: of the missed opportunities of more political liberalization along with

550
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 2: the market liberalization that China has seen over the last

551
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,959
Speaker 2: several decades. When you think about the fall of the

552
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 2: Soviet Union and what contributed to that collapse, how much

553
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 2: of it is it the market reforms versus the structure

554
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 2: of the Soviet Union versus the political liberalization. And is

555
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 2: there an argument to be made that the reason that

556
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:37,239
Speaker 2: the CCP and the country is as stable as it

557
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 2: is today is because they didn't also pursue the political liberalization.

558
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,200
Speaker 4: No, not really, I don't think that is the key.

559
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 4: I think the key reason why the CCP succeeded was

560
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 4: more that they were willing to experiment, I mean, under

561
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 4: a situation of political dictatorship. As you pointed out, they

562
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 4: were willing to experiment in ways that the Soviet leadership

563
00:31:00,280 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 4: was And maybe I mean, and this is pure speculation,

564
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 4: but maybe that goes back to what we talked about

565
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 4: earlier on that the Soviet Union kept chugging along, you know,

566
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 4: with some growth a very very long time. There wasn't

567
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 4: that kind of desperation that you found in China after

568
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,240
Speaker 4: everything that the Communist Party had tried had failed. So

569
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 4: these people were really running out of the time both to

570
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 4: transformed China but also to protect the execution right. They

571
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 4: had to do something, and then they introduced gradual reform

572
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 4: and all that gradual economic reform without ever thinking that

573
00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 4: they would give up political control. So this is one

574
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 4: of the things that we show in the book, and

575
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 4: I think this is the reason why the Chinese communist

576
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:42,479
Speaker 4: potted today is so obsessed with learning the negative lessons

577
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 4: from the Soviet Union, is that much of this was

578
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 4: of course not just about creating a China that was

579
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 4: rich and strong. It was being able to recreate the

580
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 4: communist party that was in control of mostics. Right. So

581
00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 4: that story or how that the dictatorship was reinforced at

582
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 4: the back of reform already in the mid nineteen eighties,

583
00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 4: is a very central part of our book. I mean,

584
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 4: we do see a period of openness from the late

585
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 4: seventies to the mid nineteen eighties, when there would have

586
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 4: been a really possibility that China would have moved in

587
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 4: a more democratic, but more pluralistic, more open direction than

588
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 4: what happened what happened later on. But by nineteen eighty

589
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 4: four of their aboats that period is ended. Done is

590
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 4: laying down the law, saying the direction that China will

591
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 4: go in is one of increased deepening, market reform and

592
00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 4: communist party control. There will be no pluralism of any sort,

593
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,239
Speaker 4: there will be no freedom of speech. All of that

594
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 4: is and this is of course very important in terms

595
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 4: of understanding China today. I mean, this is what created

596
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 4: the kind of situation that we see now, even though

597
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 4: I now, of course, I was in China in the

598
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 4: spring and one of my businessman friends was joking that maybe,

599
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:05,600
Speaker 4: you know, reform and opening should be seen as a

600
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 4: gigantic Yet you know, let in its new economic policy

601
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 4: back in the nineteen twenties where people were allowed to

602
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 4: generate wealth for a while, just for the party to

603
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 4: come back in and confiscate everything. So don't say that

604
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 4: I'm sharing that view, but given what she and King

605
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 4: has been up recently, you can spok of longer standing.

606
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 3: Since we're up firmly in the nineteen eighties. Now, talk

607
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 3: to us about Coca cola and its presence in the

608
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 3: Chinese market, because I kind of think this is like

609
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 3: a nice little microcosm of the changes that happened to

610
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:39,440
Speaker 3: the Chinese economy around that time.

611
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 4: So the Coca Cola example is really interesting because it's

612
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 4: a typical example in a way of how it was

613
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 4: possible for a moved the national company to come into China,

614
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 4: to start working in China because of the attractiveness the

615
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 4: symbolism of the product that it delivered, but also was

616
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 4: able to work with local people and local businesses within China.

617
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 4: And what's also fascinating here is the connection between Coca

618
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:14,240
Speaker 4: Cola and its political significance in terms of the American.

619
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 3: Because Coco is like a symbol of American capitalism, right.

620
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 4: Yes, and the Chinese leadership wanted to embrace that symbolism

621
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 4: without necessarily having to embrace the full package. So they

622
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 4: were trying to figure out how they could work with

623
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:34,760
Speaker 4: this particular American company and indeed other American companies as well,

624
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 4: in order to be seen as helping bringing Coca Cola

625
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:43,800
Speaker 4: to China, but on conditions that would be acceptable to them.

626
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 4: And this is the story that is repeated over and

627
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:50,280
Speaker 4: over again in China when it comes to foreign companies,

628
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:55,319
Speaker 4: the connections to local partners, how the government oversees this

629
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,239
Speaker 4: in seat of political terms, but also how it can

630
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 4: turn out to be immensely emotionally successful under those circumstances.

631
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:07,440
Speaker 2: You joked about your businessman friend in China saying, maybe

632
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 2: that whole reform period was like Lenin's net period, and

633
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:15,440
Speaker 2: you had the dominance of the party and then wealth

634
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 2: was created, and then now the party re emerges in

635
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:22,400
Speaker 2: strength and Caesar's control of that wealth, so to speak.

636
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 2: I'm curious your take here in twenty twenty four. Do

637
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:30,719
Speaker 2: you find that to have been an inevitable arc? I mean,

638
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 2: I probably doesn't sound like you believe much is inevitable,

639
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 2: given your focus on contingencies of history. But was this

640
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 2: something that like due to this specific leaders who emerged

641
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:46,800
Speaker 2: in China, most prominently Shijinping, but also to some extent

642
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,960
Speaker 2: with the more nationalist edge of hu Jintao, Like, was

643
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 2: this something that is like it was the result of

644
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,760
Speaker 2: these specific individuals that has bent the curve of history

645
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,239
Speaker 2: so to speak, or do you think there was sort

646
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 2: of like structural forces and play that brought back the

647
00:36:02,160 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 2: sort of like very high level of state control.

648
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 4: I think it was both. I mean, in the She

649
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:11,840
Speaker 4: and Pink case, I think he was picked by the

650
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,399
Speaker 4: party as the what the Chinese could call the core

651
00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 4: leader back in the early twenty teens in response to

652
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 4: what was seen as a bunch of real problems from

653
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 4: a Chinese Communist Party perspective over liberalization, decentralization, corruption, strength

654
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 4: of private companies that meddled in a lot of things

655
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 4: that the Communists didn't want them to meddle In. They

656
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 4: wanted to get a strong leader win who could deal

657
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:43,240
Speaker 4: with those issues in a way that his predecessors, youngstermen

658
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 4: Hu Jintao, had not been able to do it. So

659
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:49,759
Speaker 4: they wanted a strong leader. It's just that I think

660
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 4: even for many Communist leaders of that generation, they got

661
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 4: more than they bargained for. So that's where the personality

662
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 4: as state comes in. They got a leader who really

663
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 4: wanted to return digal So issues to the maoist or

664
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 4: even the sort of pre Mao period in terms of

665
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 4: the CCP's history, and emphasizes the party's position over what

666
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 4: even many party leaders back twenty fifteen years ago. Coote

667
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 4: would be good for China. And it's a classic example,

668
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 4: right of responding to real world problems not unknown in

669
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:26,360
Speaker 4: this country, right by going very far in one direction,

670
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,560
Speaker 4: hoping that that would resolve the problem that is there,

671
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,759
Speaker 4: and then getting stuck in a way in WICKI kind

672
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 4: of leader that you have in this case in Tea

673
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 4: and pain. So, I think that's the story the way

674
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 4: we can tell it now. I hope at some point

675
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 4: to be able to tell that story based on archives

676
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 4: and primary documents. As an historian, we can't do that yet,

677
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 4: but I think at some point we will be able

678
00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 4: to do that, and then it will be fascinating to

679
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 4: test that hypothesis about how this happened.

680
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 3: So just on the revolution from below point, one of

681
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 3: the things that you emphasize the book is a lot

682
00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 3: of the stuff that happens in this time period is

683
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 3: a result of people feeling that they are heading somewhere,

684
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 3: that there's like a grander Chinese vision that can be achieved,

685
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 3: and so that motivates people to actually do something. I'm curious,

686
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 3: just going up to the present day, do you get

687
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 3: a sense that people feel that that there's like a

688
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:29,799
Speaker 3: direction that China is heading in that it's clear to

689
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 3: people like what they are trying to do at a moment.

690
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 4: Absolutely not. I think it's very very clear that a

691
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:40,400
Speaker 4: lot of people in China do not understand where the

692
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:44,000
Speaker 4: country is heading and what the reasons are. And you know,

693
00:38:44,080 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 4: you don't spend much time in Beijing before you realize

694
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 4: that these days, I think it was very different in

695
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 4: the time period that we are talking about, which was

696
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 4: generally a time or uplift, at least in economic and

697
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 4: social terms. And it's right to say, I mean as

698
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 4: many historians said that there was an element of a

699
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 4: bargament that at least for some Chinese, not everyone, but

700
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:08,320
Speaker 4: for some Chinese, very particularly in business, that one accepted

701
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 4: the dictatorship for what it was and then went on

702
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 4: getting rich and establishing somebodies great middling fortunes that you

703
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:20,239
Speaker 4: find so many in China today. And that is good.

704
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 4: I mean, that was positive. It was much much better

705
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 4: than the dark past that we described at the beginning

706
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 4: of the book. It was just that China wasn't able

707
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 4: to take what in our view is a necessary step

708
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:38,760
Speaker 4: to improve its political system, its overall attempt at trying

709
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 4: to become a more open, more pluralistic country in the

710
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 4: period when the going was good, when there was a

711
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:50,720
Speaker 4: general sense that China was making advances domestically and internationally. Now,

712
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 4: I think even if people from within the Chinese Companist

713
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 4: Party of the Hemping would try to move in a

714
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 4: direction of increased liberalisation, which I think they will have

715
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:03,120
Speaker 4: to do at some point because people are just very

716
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 4: unhappy with the color system that is there at the moment,

717
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 4: it would be much more difficult because the going is

718
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 4: not that good and it probably is never going to

719
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 4: be that good again, and it was a remarkable period

720
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:17,319
Speaker 4: of economic transformation ten percent per year growth rates. It

721
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,799
Speaker 4: would have been possible to carry out necessarily reform, but

722
00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 4: these people didn't want to do it because they had

723
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 4: become so preoccupied with holding on power themselves. And I

724
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,880
Speaker 4: think historically that that might turn out to be the

725
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 4: biggest mistake. That's cover is for us later.

726
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 2: On, arn Western, Thank you so much, truly the perfect guest.

727
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 2: Really appreciate you coming.

728
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:41,319
Speaker 3: On nominative determinism. Truly had to come on this.

729
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 4: Indeedeed we talked about contingency. This is not contingent. This

730
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 4: is right. This is the one.

731
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 2: This is the one scientific fact of history that was

732
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 2: inevitable regardless of it.

733
00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:53,400
Speaker 4: Was great chatting with you.

734
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you so much. Congrats on the book and

735
00:40:55,920 --> 00:40:57,920
Speaker 2: encourage people to check it out. And I appreciate it.

736
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 2: Thank you, Tracy. I'm totally down in my dottage to

737
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 2: just turn this into a history podcast where we read

738
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:18,960
Speaker 2: books and then talk to historians.

739
00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 3: I feel like podcasts becoming history podcast is also an

740
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 3: Indepololgi right.

741
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:25,400
Speaker 2: Well, you run out of things to talk about, so

742
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 2: you gotta start mining the past.

743
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 3: You know what actually in all your recent reading, you

744
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:31,840
Speaker 3: might know the answer to this question which I forgot

745
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 3: to ask arn about. But why was the Soviet Union

746
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:40,320
Speaker 3: and China in like the nineteen fifties obsessed with steel production?

747
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 2: Do you know why? I actually don't know the answer.

748
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 2: My guess would be is just like the most sort

749
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:50,360
Speaker 2: of objective thing of what you need to modernize in

750
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:54,120
Speaker 2: a twentieth century economy, you need steel for probably literally

751
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 2: everything that gets built. It'd been a good question. Another

752
00:41:57,080 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 2: thing that I wish I had asked is how paranoid,

753
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:05,760
Speaker 2: how justified? Was because you asked that great question about

754
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 2: the importance of the tension between China and the Soviet

755
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 2: Union in Mao's turning at least to some extent to

756
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 2: the US, which then expanded greatly over the following decades.

757
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 2: But I never get the impression that there really was

758
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 2: any actual prospect of war. Like there's one point in

759
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 2: the book where like the leaders all scrambled away from

760
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 2: Beijing because they were fear of a nuclear attack from

761
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:29,480
Speaker 2: the Soviet Union. But it's not clear that there was

762
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 2: any real anything happening there.

763
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 3: I guess hindsight is twenty twenty when it comes to

764
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,319
Speaker 3: a lot of this stuff, including the Cold War, is

765
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 3: kind of similar. I guess, like nothing happened in the

766
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:42,279
Speaker 3: end in terms of like a nuclear tech came close

767
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 3: with Cuba as minds, that is true, but like it

768
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 3: didn't happen. Yes, But one thing that I got from

769
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 3: this book is again the importance of an external enemy

770
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:57,080
Speaker 3: when it comes to radical economic transformation. And I think

771
00:42:57,120 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 3: we've seen so many examples of that throughout his at

772
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 3: this point. So China, China's market liberalization as a result

773
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 3: of its fear of the Soviet Union is a great one.

774
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,720
Speaker 3: I guess the return of industrial policy in the US

775
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:15,279
Speaker 3: as a result of its fear of China's economic dominance

776
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 3: is another one. Japan in the nineteen eighties would be

777
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:20,759
Speaker 3: a good one too. It feels like in order for

778
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:24,280
Speaker 3: anything to get done at scale and in an efficient

779
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:27,279
Speaker 3: time period, you have to have like some sort of

780
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:28,960
Speaker 3: threat that's hanging over you.

781
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 2: This is why we need the Paul Krugman, like, we

782
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 2: need to convince everyone that the threat is the alien. Yes, yes,

783
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 2: and then you catalyze development without actually and then there's

784
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:41,400
Speaker 2: no aliens in the end. But yeah, I though there

785
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:43,239
Speaker 2: was fascinating. I know, it's such a cliche and I

786
00:43:43,280 --> 00:43:45,840
Speaker 2: hate to admit it, but it does seem like understanding

787
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:49,760
Speaker 2: the modern world, you can learn something by reading the past.

788
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 3: I resist incredibly surprising.

789
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 2: I resisted that reality for a long time in my life,

790
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 2: and now I've succumbed. We have to know how we

791
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 2: got here.

792
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 3: Okay, now that you've discovered history, shall we leave it there?

793
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 2: Let's leave it there.

794
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 3: This has been another episode of the Audlots podcast. I'm

795
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:05,840
Speaker 3: Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway.

796
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:08,719
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart.

797
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:13,080
Speaker 2: Follow our guest Odd arn Westdad. He's OA Westdad, and

798
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 2: definitely check out his new book, The Great Transformation. Follow

799
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 2: our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Kerman Arman, Dashel Bennett at Dashbot,

800
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 2: and Keil Brooks at Keilbrooks. Thank you to our producer

801
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:26,759
Speaker 2: Moses Ondem. For more Oddlots content, go to Bloomberg dot

802
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:29,400
Speaker 2: com slash od Loots. We have transcripts, a blog, and

803
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:31,719
Speaker 2: a newsletter, and you can chat about all of these

804
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 2: topics twenty four to seven in our discord. There's even

805
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:37,439
Speaker 2: a books channel, which is where I think I saw

806
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:38,439
Speaker 2: this book pop up.

807
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 3: First, and if you enjoy odlots, if you like it

808
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:44,640
Speaker 3: when Joe reads history books, then please leave us a

809
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 3: positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if

810
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:52,000
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811
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:54,920
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812
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813
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Speaker 3: follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.