Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The single best idea,
Speaker 1: the single best idea is that David Ger and I
Speaker 1: will not work this weekend. That's where we're trying to
Speaker 1: get to. The politics of America continues an important meeting
Speaker 1: with mister Yahoo and mister Trump in Florida on this Friday.
Speaker 1: Davy Girl with wonderful perspective on that Today the show
Speaker 1: was wonderfully eclectic. A major thank you. Under real dress.
Speaker 1: Carolyne Conan of our Paris news bureau got us started
Speaker 1: on the Paris Olympics in the train. I don't know
Speaker 1: what I call it sabotage. I'm trying to not make
Speaker 1: news here, but I think that's appropriate where many of
Speaker 1: the train tracks across France are shut down. She mentioned
Speaker 1: the track out to Brittany out of Montpa perhaps is damaged,
Speaker 1: as well as the trip from London to Paris. But
Speaker 1: thank you to Carolyn Conan literally sitting, I believe, on
Speaker 1: a train when she gave us at report on the batphone.
Speaker 1: A lot of other things going on as well, but
Speaker 1: the key one was the inflation data today, and so
Speaker 1: we spoke to Bloomberg's surveillance philosopher Ira Jersey.
Speaker 2: I mean everything's transitory. Life is transitory if you wait
Speaker 2: long enough, right, Well, I love that philosophy.
Speaker 1: Here he was worse than credit suitee continue.
Speaker 2: So you know, obviously there's cyclicality, right, So we always
Speaker 2: look at trends versus cycles, and that's one of the
Speaker 2: important things. So, you know, we had this forty five
Speaker 2: year downtrend in interest rates, forty year down to which
Speaker 2: was subsequent to a forty year down trend in inflation.
Speaker 2: And now we've broken too that to the upside. So
Speaker 2: so now we're looking not only for you know, what's
Speaker 2: the new trend in both inflation and therefore different markets,
Speaker 2: you know, fixing come markets really yields like you're noted,
Speaker 2: And then what is the cycle around that? And do
Speaker 2: we have inflationary cycles now that have higher highs for
Speaker 2: inflation and higher lows. The answer is probably for the
Speaker 2: next cycle or two we will have that type of environment.
Speaker 1: Iiraon Jersey. There was some good reporting, and of course
Speaker 1: we saw in the bond market some stasis off of
Speaker 1: the set of economic data today, but nevertheless equities higher
Speaker 1: and fixed income yields came in. I saw a lot
Speaker 1: of different voices suggesting September as we were heading to
Speaker 1: But boy, we have to really keep in mind the
Speaker 1: essay by William Dudley, the former New York FED President.
Speaker 1: We saw that on Bloomberg Opinion, a blistering essay stop
Speaker 1: screwing around and move July thirty one, that puts some
Speaker 1: tension into the FED decides we'll do that next week.
Speaker 1: John Fair, Lisa Bramwoitz, and myself as well on the
Speaker 1: tech juggernaut to come. In the background, there's Tesla and Google,
Speaker 1: but far more there's this stress us over cap X
Speaker 1: every once in a while, and we talked to people
Speaker 1: this this blather blather. I'm as guilty of it as anyone.
Speaker 1: And then someone steps in with specificity where the show
Speaker 1: just stops on AI. On Capex for Global, Wall Street,
Speaker 1: Gene Munster, deep water asset.
Speaker 3: Management companies are spending about fifty billion a year on CAPEX.
Speaker 3: So you figure over a three year period, one hundred
Speaker 3: and fifty billion. They're generating about one hundred billion a
Speaker 3: year in income. Of that capex, by the way, about
Speaker 3: half of it is related to AI. So said another way,
Speaker 3: seventy five billion over three years. Their market caps are
Speaker 3: two plus trillion dollars, and as Zuckerberg said this weekend
Speaker 3: is Bloomberg Podcast, that there's just too much risk if
Speaker 3: they don't pursue this, because it is the biggest changes
Speaker 3: he talked about in the next ten to fifteen years.
Speaker 3: I think it's the biggest change in the next fifty.
Speaker 3: But the point is is that I think that if
Speaker 3: one of these companies takes the approach of let's save
Speaker 3: ten billion dollars here, ten billion dollars there over a
Speaker 3: over a year period, I think it could be a
Speaker 3: just a historic mistake. And so they get it. Google
Speaker 3: said it soundar sat on their call that they have
Speaker 3: to continue to embrace capex and ultimately, Dave that is
Speaker 3: that's the central question of what AI investors should focus
Speaker 3: in on, at least over the next year or two years,
Speaker 3: is what does that capex pace look like?
Speaker 1: Gene Munster bottle that that's just incredibly important comments there
Speaker 1: as he breaks out the actual numbers within this Capex
Speaker 1: panic over AI. We will go next week too, an
Speaker 1: exceptionally important final week of July. We've got the FED meeting,
Speaker 1: We've got the earnings here that we will observe from Microsoft,
Speaker 1: from Amazon, from Apple and others. We're on YouTube, let's
Speaker 1: forget that. Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast please. That's the best
Speaker 1: way to help me drive this forward. You're subscribing to
Speaker 1: Bloomberg podcasts and again on YouTube. A great live chat,
Speaker 1: informative live chat as we build out that audience. On
Speaker 1: Apple CarPlay worldwide and in France. If you can't get
Speaker 1: on the train and see the Olympics, at least listen
Speaker 1: to us on Apple CarPlay stuck in what I'm sure
Speaker 1: is a lot of traffic outside Paris. And Android Auto
Speaker 1: as well on Apple Podcasts. This is single best idea