Speaker 1: You found Fantasy Football Weekly Micro a deep dive on
Speaker 1: one player in just five to ten minutes. Now, here's
Speaker 1: your host, Paul Charge. It's another edition to Fantasy Football
Speaker 1: Weekly Micro. These are our weekday editions where we break
Speaker 1: down one player deep dive style and oh, one of
Speaker 1: my favorites every year. One of my favorite players coming
Speaker 1: up right now my coast is Tyler Knabeleie Tyler. Who
Speaker 1: are we talking about today?
Speaker 2: We are talking about JK. Dobbins.
Speaker 1: JK Dobbins. I love this guy. I have every year.
Speaker 1: I've been optimistic. I've backed him a bunch of times.
Speaker 1: Two years ago I think I've had him in like
Speaker 1: my top five or six. Then he probably blew out
Speaker 1: his ACL. Last year optimistic didn't work out. I'm back
Speaker 1: on board again with JK. Dobbins. Will break him down
Speaker 1: in great detail in just a second. First a reminder,
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Speaker 1: totally different. Start the season with eighteen teams and instead
Speaker 1: of playing head to head every week, the low scoring
Speaker 1: team gets chopped and all their players go to the
Speaker 1: waiver wire. It is pandemonium in your guillotine league as
Speaker 1: you try to figure out when to bid on all
Speaker 1: these great free agents. How long do I hold my
Speaker 1: fab How long can I survive? All you have to
Speaker 1: do is not finish last. You can do that right,
Speaker 1: not be last.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I when I play guillotine leagues, I am like
Speaker 3: the definition of I'm just not trying to finish last.
Speaker 3: I will have the worst team weeks one through ten.
Speaker 3: I do not care because I'm not the worst, exactly
Speaker 3: the second worst. The second worst team, yeah, wee one
Speaker 3: through ten. But because I feel like I drafted just
Speaker 3: like a whole bunch of guys. They're just gonna get
Speaker 3: like nine points or ten points. I feel like I
Speaker 3: can just kno get last. And then when I have
Speaker 3: eight hundred dollars and it's we twelve, Yeah, you've.
Speaker 1: Got to you got all your fast, That's the that's
Speaker 1: the easiest path to victory right there. Easier said than done.
Speaker 2: Yeah, by risk ky reward.
Speaker 1: Yes, you want to go safe, safe safe players in
Speaker 1: the guillotine league, and we love it. Let's talk about JK.
Speaker 1: Dobbins and how safe he might be. I think safer
Speaker 1: then a lot of people think.
Speaker 3: I think I would be those a lot of people, Well,
Speaker 3: all right, he was. He was the are you fifty six?
Speaker 2: Last year?
Speaker 3: He obviously missed some games RB thirty four and average
Speaker 3: points per game and he's currently going off the board
Speaker 3: is RB seventeen. I got him no apparent reason. I
Speaker 3: think of my cheat sheet, I've got him going like twelve.
Speaker 2: That's I'm out on that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know you're not. That's fine, that's fine.
Speaker 2: I'm totally well, let's talk about it.
Speaker 3: So the hope is obviously for this year, is that
Speaker 3: he's another year moved from the a CL Hopefully he's
Speaker 3: not limping out there like he was last season, and.
Speaker 2: He won't be.
Speaker 3: I think he will look closer to his rookie year self,
Speaker 3: the guy we drafted him to be kind of before
Speaker 3: the the ACL that was like what a week before
Speaker 3: the season or something like that.
Speaker 1: It was, Yeah, it was about a week before this is.
Speaker 2: Like Pop already done their draft.
Speaker 1: I had JK. Dobbins all over the place. Yeah, and
Speaker 1: I had in one of a couple of my leagues.
Speaker 1: I doubled him up with Gus Edwards, so I had.
Speaker 2: Dobbins and Edwards.
Speaker 1: Dobbins blows out his ACL and I'm like, oh, well,
Speaker 1: at least I got Gus Edwards. Now I got I've
Speaker 1: got like the go to guy. And I'm like, two
Speaker 1: days later Gus Edwards, same injury.
Speaker 2: Did you draft Tyson Williams too well? Did?
Speaker 1: I picked him up in some leagues just trying to
Speaker 1: get something out of that spot that did not work out.
Speaker 2: Did not work out at all.
Speaker 3: So he started the year he didn't He didn't play
Speaker 3: the first I think it was three weeks of the season,
Speaker 3: comes back for a couple of games.
Speaker 2: Gets hurt.
Speaker 1: Yeah, didn't look good doing it exactly, clearly favoring one leg.
Speaker 1: It's like you shouldn't even been out there.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: And then he comes back toward the end of the
Speaker 3: season and he put together a couple of nice string
Speaker 3: of games. He had back to back one hundred plus
Speaker 3: rushing yards in weeks fourteen and fifteen, and then he
Speaker 3: had ninety three rushing yards in week seventeen. So at
Speaker 3: least we saw some signs of him kind of returning
Speaker 3: to the guy he was before the injury, yeah.
Speaker 1: Which is not that uncommon with the ACLS, right, I
Speaker 1: mean not everybody's gonna be Adrian Peterson, where like six
Speaker 1: months off for racecl you're off running for two thousand yards.
Speaker 1: That's it doesn't normally work that way, you know. And
Speaker 1: for Dobbins, clearly he came back too soon. He wasn't ready.
Speaker 1: You know, God love him for trying, but he wasn't ready.
Speaker 1: And you know, as a comparable with the Rams, cam
Speaker 1: Akers came back too soon from his achilles, looked really
Speaker 1: bad for a long time, and then he lit up
Speaker 1: December and everybody's like cam Akers is back.
Speaker 3: JK.
Speaker 1: Dobbins, it's a similar story. Came back too soon, had
Speaker 1: a good December, but nobody thinks he's back. I do.
Speaker 3: You dive into some of the stats and they're kind
Speaker 3: of just I would say, weird, because we all agreed
Speaker 3: that Dobbins didn't look like himself. But when you dive
Speaker 3: into someone like the yards for carry, he was five.
Speaker 3: He had finished with five point seven yards per carry,
Speaker 3: which was tied with Khalil Herbert for first in the
Speaker 3: entire league.
Speaker 1: How about that? Which it is insane And again for
Speaker 1: guy wasn't healthy and no threat in the passing game
Speaker 1: for most of this year. Right, Yeah, you know that
Speaker 1: Pat once or shot Baateman went out. The passing game
Speaker 1: was dead in the water for Baltimore and was not
Speaker 1: they were and.
Speaker 3: Mark Andrews too, he went out kind of for a
Speaker 3: couple of games in the middle of there too.
Speaker 2: Sorry point, and you had.
Speaker 1: To here's Dobbins when defenses know they're going to run
Speaker 1: the ball, and here's Dobbins running for five point seven yards.
Speaker 1: So Harry on a bad leg.
Speaker 3: I saw that stat and I was like, oh, maze,
Speaker 3: because he didn't play a lot of games or kind
Speaker 3: of that kind of thing. And then you can find
Speaker 3: other stat He was fifth in rush yards over expected
Speaker 3: for a tent, which is I understand.
Speaker 2: I don't understand that.
Speaker 1: I will tell you how that's possible.
Speaker 2: JK.
Speaker 1: Dobbins is good. Tyler dude's good.
Speaker 2: I won't say that. I won't dispute the fact that
Speaker 2: he's not good.
Speaker 3: But when we get into some of the other guy
Speaker 3: I'm not taking pretty much any of them over JK.
Speaker 2: Dobbins. I don't think.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, we'll talk more about that offensive line.
Speaker 1: I love the fact that the Ravens are turning four
Speaker 1: of their five starters from last year's number two ranked
Speaker 1: run blocking offensive line. So this line is going to
Speaker 1: give opportunities to its running backs and that's primarily going
Speaker 1: to be JK. Dobbins. And the one change they made
Speaker 1: I mentioned four or five starters. The one change they
Speaker 1: made they got rid of their they're one bad player.
Speaker 1: They went from Ben Powers at guard to Ben Cleveland.
Speaker 1: Powers was awful. He was guard at number one hundred
Speaker 1: eleven by Pro Football Focus and run blocking, and they
Speaker 1: got rid of him. So Ben Cleveland will be an
Speaker 1: upgrade on the offensive line. That's going to be good news.
Speaker 1: The only threat to JK. Dobbins and what will be
Speaker 1: a lot of running is Gus Edwards. And we you know,
Speaker 1: we've seen how this team, or at least how Greg
Speaker 1: Roman used Gus Edwards, which is really just sprinkling him
Speaker 1: in as a change of pace back. I don't think
Speaker 1: Gus Edwards is a real threat to you.
Speaker 3: Not not this year, because I think when you look
Speaker 3: at the Todd munk In factor and you kind of,
Speaker 3: I mean, we don't know what this offense is gonna
Speaker 3: look like.
Speaker 2: Every report is that they're gonna throw a lot this year.
Speaker 1: See Con says they're gonna throw more.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1: I'll take his word for it.
Speaker 3: And Greg Roman was the guy who just I want
Speaker 3: to run the ball, and I want to run this
Speaker 3: many times I possibly can.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got the stats here.
Speaker 3: It's rush attempts by year in their rank in the
Speaker 3: league will start in twenty eighteen. They were first twenty nineteen, first,
Speaker 3: twenty twenty, first twenty twenty one to third, twenty twenty
Speaker 3: two to six.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and well I'm part of it, you know. And
Speaker 1: maybe the only reason they dropped to six last year
Speaker 1: is because Lamar Jackson missed so much exactly. Yeah, Now,
Speaker 1: this is total rushing attempts. These are not running back
Speaker 1: rushing attempt Yeah.
Speaker 2: Okay, Lamar Jackson does inflate him a little bit, but.
Speaker 1: Yes he does.
Speaker 3: But if I think if you pull Lamar Jackson even
Speaker 3: out of there, it's probably still going to be sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, still a very run heavy offense, no doubt
Speaker 1: about that. And we don't know what Todd how much
Speaker 1: that'll change under Todd Monkin. But here's what I can
Speaker 1: tell you, this is not a great passing offense. No
Speaker 1: matter what Lamar Jackson is a limited passer. It's not
Speaker 1: a bad passer, but he's a limited passer, sometimes great,
Speaker 1: sometimes terrible. Rashad Bakman's got a lot to prove on
Speaker 1: whether or not he is a legitimate NFL number one
Speaker 1: wide receiver on a team. Mark Andrews has nothing to
Speaker 1: prove he's great, although you know, we saw him disappear
Speaker 1: for long stretches last year, but we still think he's
Speaker 1: an elite tight end and he's I think he's my
Speaker 1: tight end three or two or something, So I think
Speaker 1: he bounces back nicely here. But I still feel like
Speaker 1: there's so many more questions about this passing offense than
Speaker 1: there is about the rushing offense that Baltimore and JK.
Speaker 1: Dobbins feels very safe to get a lot of carries.
Speaker 3: Again, I don't know, I just I just there's something
Speaker 3: about the fact that we had We haven't even seen
Speaker 3: him like finished this highs as a running back ever
Speaker 3: like in his career, because he's only played two one
Speaker 3: healthy year, healthy year year. I don't remember exactly I
Speaker 3: should have had that, but he was in a crowded
Speaker 3: backfield that right, exactly, and then he was because it
Speaker 3: was mark Ingram. It was godsad words, and then Dobbins
Speaker 3: did come on the later fact of the year.
Speaker 2: That's why he was being.
Speaker 3: Drafted so high that next year, like me exactly, and
Speaker 3: then this year get ACL So now we're here. So
Speaker 3: now there's too much risk for me going into this
Speaker 3: year that we're just not getting with some of these
Speaker 3: other running backs. And I just can't buy in on
Speaker 3: the fact from a guy who is not going to
Speaker 3: offer you anything in the receiving game.
Speaker 2: He's a pure on the ground runner.
Speaker 3: Seemingly, Lamar Jackson's gonna take some of his red zone carries.
Speaker 2: Mark Anders not a lot.
Speaker 1: Jackson doesn't do a lot of red zone stuff. He'll
Speaker 1: score and he does some, but he's not Josh Allen
Speaker 1: and he's not Jalen Hurts. Where the balls at the two?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree to go to plays to the quarterback.
Speaker 2: I agree. JK.
Speaker 1: Dobbins has double digit touchdown probability if he plays seventeen games.
Speaker 3: I think the ceiling is like Miles Sanders from last
Speaker 3: year for JK. Dobbins, a guy who's gonna get used
Speaker 3: a lot in the red zone. He's gonna get all
Speaker 3: the red zone carries but he's not gonna offer you
Speaker 3: much in the in the receiving game, and like, yeah,
Speaker 3: he he might be the wideceiver one in a very
Speaker 3: high rushing attack offense. But I just don't see how
Speaker 3: he ends up like a I don't know, like a
Speaker 3: like a Dalvin Cook or someone like that from last
Speaker 3: year or years before. I don't see how that. I
Speaker 3: don't see that in the probability for JK.
Speaker 2: Dobbins this year.
Speaker 1: All Right, I'm I'm a lot more optimistic, I think,
Speaker 1: and I don't. I don't the Miles Sanders. I understand
Speaker 1: the Miles Sanders comparison, cause Sanders doesn't catch a lot
Speaker 1: and Dobbins doesn't catch a lot. But Dobbins is gonna
Speaker 1: get a lot more work. He's gonna be like sixteen
Speaker 1: carries a game, and Dobbins isn't gonna get sniped at
Speaker 1: the goal line for ten touchdowns like Jalen Hurts just did.
Speaker 1: So this I think, I think Dobbins is sitting on
Speaker 1: an average game log, average game log, it's gonna be
Speaker 1: sixteen carries, one hundred let's call it ninety yards and
Speaker 1: zero point eight touchdowns. I mean he's gonna score touchdowns
Speaker 1: two out of three games.
Speaker 3: Okay, and where you say you have himranked white like
Speaker 3: look running back twelve?
Speaker 1: I think am I chie cheet? I love JK. Dobb Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm in. I'm back in again. Ready, I'm ready to
Speaker 1: get hurt all over again.
Speaker 3: That's okay, Let's play the game. All right, Let's do
Speaker 3: the game. Kenneth Walker RB fifteen.
Speaker 1: Kenth Walker's got too many he's got He's got a
Speaker 1: crowd of backfield. But I don't like I'd go Job,
Speaker 1: I'd go Dobbins.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 3: I'll definitely go Kenneth Walker because I think he's a
Speaker 3: better runner than than JK.
Speaker 2: Dobbins. I'll love Kenneth Walker. Aaron Jones RB sixteen.
Speaker 1: I love Aaron Jones, but I've I've had Aaron Jones
Speaker 1: on so many teams the last couple of years, and
Speaker 1: the usage is so frustrating. I can't do it. I
Speaker 1: would take Dobbins.
Speaker 2: You think it's better this year without a Rodgers? Or God?
Speaker 1: I hope, so God, I hope so all right, Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 1: Aaron Jones a really really good running back, just languishing
Speaker 1: with the misuse in my mind.
Speaker 2: I don't have to ask, but Joe Mixon RB eighteen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm off mixing. Yeah, We've talked about it in
Speaker 1: the previous shows. I just think what I saw last
Speaker 1: year was very troubling. Now, the fact they didn't backfilm
Speaker 1: mixing with you know, more competition in the backfield is optimistic.
Speaker 3: I thought, I'm sure he was gonna be off the roster,
Speaker 3: but they've pretty much done nothing to suggest that they're
Speaker 3: gonna get rid of what they're gonna just give our
Speaker 3: like carries to Chase.
Speaker 2: Brown and Trayvon Williams, not like.
Speaker 1: It just doesn't it seem likely.
Speaker 2: It doesn't seem like that's just mix makes It's the.
Speaker 1: Perfect guillotine guy. You're gonna get him in, like if
Speaker 1: an eighteen team draft, you're gonna get him in, Like
Speaker 1: I don't know, round four or five, I'm an eighteen
Speaker 1: team guillotine league. And it just he's gonna be just good.
Speaker 1: You know, he's gonna give you your you know, like
Speaker 1: seventy yards, Yeah, score a few touchdowns here, and he's
Speaker 1: just gonna be good. He's gonna be a guy who
Speaker 1: doesn't get you chopped.
Speaker 3: I'll take Dobbins over mixing, all right, Right now, I
Speaker 3: got youah h yeah, alright, Miles Sanders, who we just
Speaker 3: compared him to Army nineteen. I'm telling you, I'd rather.
Speaker 1: I'd rather have the Ravens lead running back than the
Speaker 1: Panthers lead running BA.
Speaker 2: But I think Miles Sanders has there. They're too mean.
Speaker 3: I don't like it's coach talk. But they're talking about
Speaker 3: three down roll for Miles Standers. And if that's the case,
Speaker 3: Miles Sanders is a smash. We've seen bad like team.
Speaker 3: Bad teams have a lot of good fantasy running back products.
Speaker 1: That's all can happen.
Speaker 2: So I like I like Miles Sanders.
Speaker 1: Okay, last one, Damian Pierce. Now you know how I
Speaker 1: feel about Damien exactly. RB twenty is a travesty, a travisty.
Speaker 1: Houston's offense is going to be so much better than
Speaker 1: the version we saw last year. I love Damian Pierce.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have him. I am higher than anybody else
Speaker 1: in the world. I'm a chiachet last year. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: have him higher than anybody else this year. Nobody watched
Speaker 1: enough Texans football to realize Damian Pierce is the single
Speaker 1: best player in the entire offense. And they know it,
Speaker 1: and they're gonna go back to him copiously.
Speaker 2: So you're going Damian Pierce.
Speaker 1: Damian Pierce. That's not a debt. Is that doesn't mean
Speaker 1: I don't love JK. Dobbins.
Speaker 3: I want to toss one last one in just because
Speaker 3: you said JK. Dobbins RB twelve. I looked at the
Speaker 3: RB twelve and and ADP for best ball traves Etn
Speaker 3: is going as RB twelve.
Speaker 1: I'm out on Etn. Tank Bigsby is gonna eat that.
Speaker 2: Dude.
Speaker 1: You watch you mark my words on this.
Speaker 3: Want one more just because I need you to agree
Speaker 3: with me because it's all about me. Brees Hall RB
Speaker 3: eleven Hall, Okay.
Speaker 2: Thank you.
Speaker 1: Assuming you know, assuming the ACL is rounding in de form,
Speaker 1: he might be the I knew Adrian Peterson come back
Speaker 1: from what they said.
Speaker 2: He's running twenty two miles an hour. I know that's crazy.
Speaker 1: Now, you know you can run straight on the ACL
Speaker 1: for a long time. It's all the cutting and everything
Speaker 1: that's the big thing. So but still the twenty two
Speaker 1: miles per hours are very promising. Yeah the sound of that.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to this edition of Fantasy Football Weekly
Speaker 1: Micro Edition. We're back with another player tomorrow in the
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