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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game jewish prow read enough.

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Speaker 2: They're all for running a game so smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 3: D sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 3: is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that?

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Speaker 3: Shop with mind, buddy, and that's why you see.

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Speaker 2: Your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous a mount.

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Speaker 1: Of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody kicks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The love is left to one of the wide eyed,

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Speaker 2: drilled bibused. How on earth did that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, Welcome back to Wonderful, the Soccer Betting podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lee Buff

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Speaker 1: and joining me as always will be my colleagues co

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Speaker 1: hosts friends b J. Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo, and together

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Speaker 1: the three of us will go through all ten Premier

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Speaker 1: League matches coming your way starting on Saturday, February eleventh

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Speaker 1: and going through the weekend. We also have a Monday

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Speaker 1: night football Merseyside derby to get to. Then we'll talk

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Speaker 1: about Bundesliga La Liga, Siria Ligan and then give out

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Speaker 1: our favorite underdogs and then a best bet in the

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Speaker 1: Premier League. But before we get to all that, a

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Speaker 1: reminder that wonder goal is presented to you by Bet

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Speaker 1: three six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up

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Speaker 1: with promo Code Action to get Bet three six fives

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Speaker 1: exclusive sign up off her in New Jersey and Colorado.

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Speaker 1: Bet one dollar on any game and get two hundred

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Speaker 1: dollars free. There's one place to start this weekend. It's

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Speaker 1: not even in the weekend. It's on Monday, and it's

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Speaker 1: Anfield Liverpool Merseyside England Merseyside Derby between Jurgen Klops Liverpool

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Speaker 1: and Sean Deitsch's Everden. Liverpool's minus two hundred to top hees

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Speaker 1: five to one on the road draw here is plus

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Speaker 1: three fifty. We all know what this line looked like

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Speaker 1: before Sean Diich's masterclass against Michel Arteta and Arsenal over

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Speaker 1: the weekend and Liverpool capitulating once again. The line's moved,

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Speaker 1: but I still think it's Everden here at five to

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Speaker 1: one what we saw. I think what we saw out

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Speaker 1: of Everdon, like whether that level of performance is repeatable

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Speaker 1: is one thing, but the foundation of it is I

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Speaker 1: think right like, this is going to be a well

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Speaker 1: much more organized team, a team that is going to

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Speaker 1: know when to kind of what risks they can take,

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Speaker 1: how to play and transition, and also a more cohesive attacking.

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Speaker 4: Plan that all showed up.

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Speaker 1: And this Liverpool defense BJ is a mess. Thirteenth overall

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Speaker 1: in the Premier League in non penalty expectacles conceded per

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Speaker 1: ninety the season, fourteenth and big chances and a big

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Speaker 1: one here, the second worst team in terms of preventing

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Speaker 1: scoring chances or expectacles.

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Speaker 4: Off of set pieces.

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Speaker 1: You know, our our favorite bald headed Scott is licking

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Speaker 1: his jobs there. And also I don't know about the

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Speaker 1: spot for Liverpool. I know it's not they're not on

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Speaker 1: for Champions League coming up this coming week, but they're

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Speaker 1: gonna have Newcastle next weekend, so they play Monday against Everden,

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Speaker 1: that it's Newcastle on that Saturday, and then they're playing

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Speaker 1: Real Madrid. So it's things are getting tight for a

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Speaker 1: team that the depth isn't showing through, the defense is struggling.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot to be concerned about here. Plus like

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Speaker 1: their seasons basically feels over. I know it's a rival rematch.

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Speaker 1: You throw the records out the window for stuff like this,

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Speaker 1: but I mean, you can't, you can't look away here.

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Speaker 1: This is this It feels I know you're buying high

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Speaker 1: after just one game, but it feels it just feels right.

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Speaker 2: I agree. I'm I'm gonna do a little bit something different,

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Speaker 2: so I actually like Everton to score. You can find them.

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Speaker 2: You know, minus one thirty five, there's you know minus

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Speaker 2: one forty out there right now. You know, let's first

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Speaker 2: the Everage defense. Uh, Michael, I'm gonna give you credit.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna give Everton credit to give Shan Ditsche credit.

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Speaker 2: They deserve to beat Arsenal. They were the better team.

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Speaker 2: They stifled Arsenal's build up play. I mean, Ditch went

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Speaker 2: with the four or five one, which is a little

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Speaker 2: different than what he typically likes to do. Because of

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Speaker 2: what Arsenal is able to do when they build to play,

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Speaker 2: when they get when they invert zin Chenko alongside Party

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Speaker 2: and then they push Shot up along the side ode guards,

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Speaker 2: they basically create this square in the middle of the pitch,

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Speaker 2: and that's how they've been able to find a lot

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Speaker 2: of space in between the lines. Everton just completely took

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Speaker 2: that away and they closed off those lines. Only allowed

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Speaker 2: Arsenal to create point nine expectacles, even though the Gunners

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Speaker 2: did have twenty two box entries. That just shows how

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Speaker 2: good it's just like a typical like Burnley Sean Ditch

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Speaker 2: type of formance, blocking shots and not allowing teams to

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Speaker 2: create get those high quality shots even if they are

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Speaker 2: in the box. But Liverpool's But the flip side of

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Speaker 2: that is Liverpool's defense. It has shown no signs of

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Speaker 2: been proving anytime soon. Like they've been terrible all season

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Speaker 2: long since we've came back from the World Cup. They've

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Speaker 2: allowed nine point six expected goals in six matches and

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Speaker 2: they haven't really played a murderer's row either. It's been

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Speaker 2: aston Ville, Lester, Brentford, Brighton, Chelsea and Wolves. And I

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Speaker 2: mentioned this I think two or three podcasts ago. Liverpool

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Speaker 2: has not held an opponent under one expected goal since

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Speaker 2: August thirty first against Newcastle. That's how bad it's been

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Speaker 2: for them. And now they still don't have Vandyk, they

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Speaker 2: still don't have Kanate just like you mentioned Michael Everton.

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Speaker 2: Even with Frank Lampard and how they've been going this season,

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Speaker 2: there's still a top five team in terms of actual

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Speaker 2: per set piece. That's only gonna improve a Sean Diysch

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Speaker 2: at the helm Liverpool's dead last. Like you mentioned, Hey,

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Speaker 2: Everton just created one point seven expected goals against what

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Speaker 2: I believe is the best defense in the Premier League,

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Speaker 2: so I actually have them Everton projected at one point

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Speaker 2: zero three expected goals. I'm not sure the status of

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Speaker 2: Domini Calvert Lewin right now. Hopefully he plays, but even

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Speaker 2: if he doesn't, I think Everton can absolutely just thrive

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Speaker 2: and transition here against Liverpool, and hey, they put up

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Speaker 2: a great offensive performance the last time these two teams

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Speaker 2: met as well. So uh, I'm on Everton to score

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Speaker 2: and minus one thirty five, just because I do believe

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Speaker 2: the line has come down far too much, to the

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Speaker 2: point where I was almost looking to play back on Liverpool,

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Speaker 2: but the injuries that have stacked up for Liverpool keep

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Speaker 2: me away from it. So Everton to score and minus

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Speaker 2: one thirty five for me, the We've talked about this

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Speaker 2: a little bit throughout the season, just how much and

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Speaker 2: it's hard to handicap how much a team will care,

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Speaker 2: and that's oversimplifying it, but the effort interest you can

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Speaker 2: one hundred percent bank on the effort level from Everton

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Speaker 2: in this match, right and you can one hundred percent

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Speaker 2: bank on them to be physical and do what Sean

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Speaker 2: Ditsch teams do. And that that midfield three of Decore

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Speaker 2: Oana and Ghana were really good. That was the best

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Speaker 2: Ghana has looked since coming back from PSG H.

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Speaker 4: They're not going to give an inch too.

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Speaker 1: Like so, like this is the type of match where

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Speaker 1: it wouldn't just it just wouldn't be a surprise to

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Speaker 1: see Liverpool kind of just not want any of it,

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Speaker 1: considering the stakes are just not that high outside of

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Speaker 1: once again being a rivalry and what's to come for them,

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Speaker 1: And plus, like you said, the injuries are piloting up

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Speaker 1: this is it's it's still a tough spot. And look,

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Speaker 1: I know this numbers come down, but you're still getting

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Speaker 1: five to one on a three way line where I

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Speaker 1: think that first of all, we might see some buyback

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Speaker 1: on on Liverpool as well, so you might want to

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Speaker 1: just wait on this one. Ah, but you're still getting

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Speaker 1: five to one on a on a match where I think.

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Speaker 4: It's gonna play it's gonna.

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Speaker 1: Play out closer than those odds suggest here. Uh, Anthity

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Speaker 1: your man Yurgury clop he seems to be in a

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Speaker 1: spot of bother right now the other that's the other

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Speaker 1: thing too. Like this Liverpool team, think about when things

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Speaker 1: have gone wrong for them under Clop, they kind of

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Speaker 1: could continue to circle the drain until the season's over.

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Speaker 1: But when the you know, when things go right, obviously

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Speaker 1: they keep going. Like was it three years ago when

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Speaker 1: they kind of just felt like they they didn't ever

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Speaker 1: pick themselves back off the mat and like make a run.

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Speaker 1: That's what I'm trying to say.

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Speaker 2: They're the only team that has uh has injuries and

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Speaker 2: they're playing too many matches. According to Yurgen Klop.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if I agree with that though, because

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Speaker 3: uh if like Liverpool, okay, like the Championship year, they

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Speaker 3: kind of came back from COVID and were just kind

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Speaker 3: of coasting, like they were out of the Champions League.

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Speaker 3: They had already won the league, so like naturally you'd

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Speaker 3: expect them to just kind of coast. But I thought

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Speaker 3: they they did. Remember they had the year after they

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Speaker 3: had the crisis year, they got waxed a bunch of

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Speaker 3: times in like December and January and they were like

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Speaker 3: eighth place, but they actually got hot and made a

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Speaker 3: run and got back into the top four. I think

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Speaker 3: they finished.

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Speaker 2: Fourth or third.

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Speaker 3: I forget who Chelsea or Liverpool was higher, but they

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Speaker 3: finished back in the top four, so they can turn

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Speaker 3: it around. But his team is a lot older. The

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Speaker 3: team is worse. This team has more holes, They have

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Speaker 3: more injuries scattered across the entire team, whereas that team

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Speaker 3: was just kind and if all the center backs got

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Speaker 3: hurt at the same time. And I kind of agree.

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Speaker 3: You know, I'm not buying Liverpool here whatsoever. I want

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Speaker 3: one point twenty five to buy Everton. I don't know

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Speaker 3: that we're going to get it anymore. I'm kind of

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Speaker 3: mad I didn't take the look ahead because this was

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Speaker 3: going to be a great Everton spot. Either way, I

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Speaker 3: do think Liverpool will be up for this game, but like,

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Speaker 3: what is Liverpool being up for the game even look like?

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Speaker 3: Because you would expect coming off the World Cup where

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Speaker 3: they really didn't have the many players playing, that they

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Speaker 3: would be better than they've been. And they really have

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Speaker 3: had one good game since the World Cup probably, like

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Speaker 3: Villa is probably the only game where I'm like that's Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: Other than that, they've been quite poor. So yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 3: I can't bet Liverpool. You could talk me into an

191
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Speaker 3: Everton team total. The first half team totals against Liverpool

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Speaker 3: have just been printing money all year and really since April.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I probably will end up staying away at

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Speaker 3: the current number, but yeah I would, I would definitely

195
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Speaker 3: look toward Everton. If anything, it also could be a

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Speaker 3: good live spot here, potentially live team total, you know,

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Speaker 3: depending on how the game is playing out.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's flip the page Saturday morning. West Ham

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Speaker 1: plus two thirty Chelsea plus one twenty five on the road.

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Speaker 4: The draw is.

201
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Speaker 1: Four to one. There's some offensive regression, positive regression coming

202
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Speaker 1: for Chelsea at some point. Oh yeah, one goal scored,

203
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Speaker 1: one goal scored to their last three matches and nearly

204
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Speaker 1: five expected. But this west Ham team, like we've talked

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Speaker 1: about this defense a lot now, it's just it's really

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Speaker 1: really good. So I'm not thinking that this is going

207
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Speaker 1: to be the spot where you want to back that

208
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Speaker 1: offensive regression to come. And similar to Liverpool, like this

209
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Speaker 1: Chelsea team it's a team in transition obviously under Potter,

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Speaker 1: new faces coming in Georgino now playing for BJ's team.

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Speaker 1: So I just don't know how much the kind of

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Speaker 1: motivation is there for this Chelsea team right like it's

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Speaker 1: the season's over pretty much for for the Premier League.

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Speaker 1: They've got bigger fish to fry coming up on. I

215
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Speaker 1: believe they played the Wednesday matches against Dortmund in the

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Speaker 1: Champions League not a great spot.

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Speaker 4: So I actually like.

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Speaker 1: West Ham at home plus two thirty to get this

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Speaker 1: one done.

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Speaker 4: Anthony, you seem.

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Speaker 1: Pretty excited about the offensive aggression coming for Graham Potters Blues.

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Speaker 3: I'm just I'm kind of interested in Chelsea again. I'm

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Speaker 3: getting there. The underlying process. Numbers from the last four

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Speaker 3: games have been pretty encouraging. Over two expected goals against Fulham.

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Speaker 3: B JA talked about that match last week. Down a

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Speaker 3: man for the last half hour, but a really good

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Speaker 3: track of performance and I still don't know what to

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Speaker 3: do with this Fulham defense. We need to have a

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Speaker 3: talk about Fulham at some point Crystal Palace over one

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Speaker 3: and a half expected goals in that match, one point

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Speaker 3: six at Anfield against Liverpool and what I thought was

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Speaker 3: a very good performance from them, including set piece you know,

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Speaker 3: mixing and matching some stuff on set pieces, which is

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Speaker 3: something Potter was always good at with Brighton and now

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Speaker 3: seems to have improved them on set pieces at Chelsea

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Speaker 3: as well, and then one point three again Fulham. At

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Speaker 3: in the last match they didn't score. You know, there's

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Speaker 3: been a lot of bad variants, but they've also been

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Speaker 3: mixing a lot of pieces in The big thing here

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Speaker 3: is jew Felix is back. He's back from suspension. He

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Speaker 3: missed three matches after getting the red card against Fulham.

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Speaker 3: He produced six shots and almost a full expected goal

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Speaker 3: in an out against Fulham on the road. I think

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Speaker 3: it's a huge upgrade.

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Speaker 2: To this attack. I like Kai Havertz.

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Speaker 3: He's been in a finishing rut. You can see his

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Speaker 3: confidence is a little bit off right now and he's

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Speaker 3: missed a lot of good opportunities. Felix is a different

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Speaker 3: option Mudrich I thought, didn't I mean, I didn't think

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Speaker 3: he did nothing in the first forty five minutes against

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Speaker 3: Fulham and got yanked at halftime. But like, there are

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Speaker 3: other pieces in this Chelsea team that are gonna gonna

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Speaker 3: mix and match and I think they'll He'll figure out

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Speaker 3: kind of what the situation is going forward. But I'm

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Speaker 3: also encouraged by the fact that Reech James is back.

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Speaker 3: That's a that's a big upgrade for their for their attack.

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Speaker 3: As well, And I mean it's not a coincidence that they,

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Speaker 3: you know, finally looked like they had an outlet up

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Speaker 3: the right wing that they could rely on to get

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Speaker 3: up and down the pitch and what he adds going forward.

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Speaker 3: So I think, you know, the time is coming for

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Speaker 3: Chelsea here. And I still believe that this west Ham

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Speaker 3: attack is underrated and it's been that way for a

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Speaker 3: long time. Nice cash for them at Newcastle last weekend.

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Speaker 3: They did produce an over one expected goal in that match.

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Speaker 3: Danny Ings is going to be fit to play more minutes.

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Speaker 3: Scamaca may be back for west Ham and there's no

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Speaker 3: team that's worse at turning final third possession and box

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Speaker 3: entries into shots than west Ham. Now I think that's

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Speaker 3: more of like a regression thing, Like I think it's

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Speaker 3: probably just going to regress back towards the mean A

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Speaker 3: little bit. Shout out to BJ for putting that stat

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Speaker 3: together for us, But yeah, I think that this west

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Speaker 3: Ham attack it's just better than the market says, and

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Speaker 3: this Chelsea attack has positive regression coming and like it's

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Speaker 3: starting to figure things out. This total has crashed over

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Speaker 3: two and a half. You can find it plus one twenty.

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Speaker 3: I like that. I like both teams to score minus

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Speaker 3: one ten. I think we're going to get a rare

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Speaker 3: over for me in this prem I have many a

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Speaker 3: lot of unders. Unders have come back in a big

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Speaker 3: way since the World Cup. But yeah, I like the

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Speaker 3: over both BTTs and over two and a half here.

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Speaker 1: Chelsea's gonna be an interesting team in the futures market

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Speaker 1: next year, I think. And they're sixteen to one to

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Speaker 1: win the Champions League right now they have Dortmann coming up.

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Speaker 1: It's I mean, I don't know if I don't think

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Speaker 1: sixteen to one is a great number, but no, I

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Speaker 1: would just I would say that it's gonna win, right,

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Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. It's much more about it being

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Speaker 1: wide open, the competition being wide open, than believing in Chelsea.

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Speaker 1: And we'll talk Champions League on Sunday Nights episode. But

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Speaker 1: it's just something to keep in mind there because like,

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Speaker 1: if let's just say Chelsea do figure it out, then

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden you're talking about a very talented team.

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Speaker 3: He finally upgraded the midfield with Enzo, and I thought

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Speaker 3: he had a very impressive showing against Fulham, like that

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Speaker 3: was the one signing that made a real difference. Felix

299
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Speaker 3: Enzo Reese. If Moo it gives you anything, Ziek is

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Speaker 3: still there.

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Speaker 2: That starts to get in.

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Speaker 3: It starts, I mean, it starts to get interested. I

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Speaker 3: mean Covid. I mean, couldn't go the Conte come back.

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Speaker 3: I don't. I wouldn't count on that.

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Speaker 2: But like Covid, Enzo is very interesting because it helps

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Speaker 2: with Gallagher, because Gallagher can go forward more and press

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Speaker 2: more and do more out of possession, which is what

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Speaker 2: he did at Palace and why he was so effective

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Speaker 2: when he did play well well two Chil's just playing

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Speaker 2: him in a you know, a two alongside Kovaci or Conte.

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Speaker 2: It just doesn't work like that. But yeah, I actually

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Speaker 2: am I gonna be on west Ham here plus a

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Speaker 2: half at minus one forty. I get it. Like I

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Speaker 2: agree like the Chelsea attack, like I said it last week,

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Speaker 2: like it has to get better, like considering the regression

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Speaker 2: that we're going to see. But I don't know if

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Speaker 2: against west Ham on the road in a like you said, Michael,

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Speaker 2: a terrible spot is necessarily going to be the spot

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Speaker 2: for me to do it. Uh, Anthony mentioned the stat

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Speaker 2: I don't know if this is out there in the

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Speaker 2: ethers or somebody's already created it, so I'm sorry. You

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Speaker 2: know if I stole it, I don't. I couldn't find

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Speaker 2: it on Google. But essentially the stat I created is

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Speaker 2: final third entries converted into box entries, so final third

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Speaker 2: to box entry conversion rate. So essentially saying, okay, how

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Speaker 2: many box entries are you getting compared to how many

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Speaker 2: final third entries you're getting? West Ham they're obviously they're

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Speaker 2: playing a low block. They're allowing teams in their final

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Speaker 2: third pretty pretty easy, pretty easily. I mean they're nineteenth

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Speaker 2: and pass per defensive action sixteenth and final third entry allowed.

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Speaker 2: But they're only allowing opponents into their box twenty six

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Speaker 2: point seven percent of the time once they enter the

333
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Speaker 2: final third, so that's the fourth best mark in the

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Speaker 2: Premier League. Chelsea. On the flip side, it's been this

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Speaker 2: story the whole season long. Like they get they get

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Speaker 2: into the final third, they're very good of progressing the

337
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Speaker 2: ball at the field, and then they just can't do

338
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Speaker 2: anything in the box. Like Anthy mentioned, kai Vertz has

339
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Speaker 2: been on a big time finishing route. They're fifteenth in

340
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Speaker 2: box or final third to box conversion rates, so I

341
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Speaker 2: am to be playing west Ham plus I have at

342
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Speaker 2: minus one forty. I actually have west Ham projected as

343
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Speaker 2: a slight favorite here just because Chelsea's overall underlying metrics

344
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Speaker 2: have just been really, really bad this season. I mean,

345
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Speaker 2: there's still at a minus expected goal differential under Potter,

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Speaker 2: and if you go look through Chelsea's results against good

347
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Speaker 2: low block teams, it hasn't really gone that well for them.

348
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Speaker 2: Like if you right before the World Cup break, they

349
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Speaker 2: were under one expected goal against both Villa, against Brentford,

350
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Speaker 2: they couldn't even create over one expected goal at Nottingham Forest,

351
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Speaker 2: even though they get one of their goals was off

352
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Speaker 2: a flute goal. You know, they obviously created one point

353
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Speaker 2: eight and they've created you know a lot of chances

354
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Speaker 2: here against Fulham and back to back matches, and also

355
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Speaker 2: they had a good performance against Bournemouth. But I really

356
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Speaker 2: question if west Ham is just gonna let Chelsea have

357
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Speaker 2: the ball and tell them to break them down. Can

358
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Speaker 2: they do it? Do they have a front man that

359
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Speaker 2: can get on the end of those chances and actually

360
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Speaker 2: put the ball in the back of the net. I'm

361
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Speaker 2: not so sure about that. So I do like west

362
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Speaker 2: Ham here plus half a goal at minus one forty.

363
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Speaker 3: Who does Chelsea have coming up besides Dortmund?

364
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,520
Speaker 2: On one second, I will look that up right now.

365
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Speaker 2: I think I want to.

366
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Speaker 3: Say they're hosting Southampton, then they go to Spurs. So

367
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Speaker 3: they go to Spurs. Is a great spot for them.

368
00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:13,600
Speaker 2: But yeahs Spurs and they host a non Jesse Marsh

369
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Speaker 2: Leeds team. We'll talk leads, which is frightening. Let's stay

370
00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:23,080
Speaker 2: in London Arsenal minus two fifty hosting hosting Brentford six

371
00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:27,520
Speaker 2: to one. The draw here is four to one the Bees. Baby,

372
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Speaker 2: they're four to two and oh one draw loss. Since

373
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Speaker 2: the World Cup a plus four point three expected goal

374
00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:37,480
Speaker 2: difference nine point seven created five point four against, which

375
00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:41,080
Speaker 2: is just outstanding defensive numbers, only three goals conceded, twelve

376
00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:45,320
Speaker 2: score They've only allowed one point three expected goals in

377
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Speaker 2: the last three matches, albeit those game against Bournemouth leads Southampton.

378
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:51,679
Speaker 4: But this team is.

379
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Speaker 1: Good, Like we keep saying it over and over again,

380
00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:54,720
Speaker 1: the team's really good.

381
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 4: They're really well coached.

382
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Speaker 1: They know how to manage games, they know when like

383
00:18:58,440 --> 00:19:01,119
Speaker 1: they know how to manage spot they know how to

384
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:04,760
Speaker 1: play up against better teams like this this team tacks

385
00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:09,800
Speaker 1: so many boxes on one of those situations where it's

386
00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 1: a spot I talk about a lot or situation I

387
00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:13,880
Speaker 1: talk about a lot where if you're going to deal

388
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,120
Speaker 1: six to one on a team this good, I don't

389
00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:17,680
Speaker 1: really care about the opponent. I'm just gonna take a

390
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 1: shot because they're gonna pay off more often than they're not. Like, like,

391
00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,439
Speaker 1: over the long term, if you if Brentford plays this

392
00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:26,400
Speaker 1: game at plus six hundred odds, I think that you're

393
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,800
Speaker 1: gonna win more often than those odds. Imply this is

394
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:31,919
Speaker 1: a tricky I think also a tricky spot for Arsenal,

395
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:35,199
Speaker 1: like that they lost their second game of the season

396
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:40,119
Speaker 1: last week and they have to a juggernaut.

397
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Speaker 4: Yeah, and then right, so.

398
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Speaker 1: Like this is a little bit of a an interesting one. BJ.

399
00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:49,040
Speaker 1: I know there's not much for you here from a

400
00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:54,000
Speaker 1: betting standpoint, but just real quick, how nervous are you?

401
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,399
Speaker 2: Kind of nervous? I wouldn't say I'm like full on panicking.

402
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,760
Speaker 2: I mean, this is just another situation that we've seen.

403
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 2: I mean, Brentford's going to have the same game plan

404
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,520
Speaker 2: that Everton did. They're gonna play some type of low block,

405
00:20:08,560 --> 00:20:10,240
Speaker 2: whether it be a four or five to one, whether

406
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:11,600
Speaker 2: it be a four to four to two, whether it

407
00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:13,240
Speaker 2: be a five to three to two, whatever it is,

408
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:15,800
Speaker 2: They're going to play a low block and they're very

409
00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:18,080
Speaker 2: very effective in doing so. That's stad I just mentioned

410
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 2: for west Ham Chelsea final third to box entry conversion rate.

411
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 2: Brentford's the second best team in the Premier League behind

412
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 2: to them in that category. They're absolutely elite at defending

413
00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:32,400
Speaker 2: their penalty area. So if Arsenal gets stifled and build

414
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,800
Speaker 2: up play, they're not able to play the progress the

415
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 2: ball through the middle of the pitch and pull Brentford

416
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:41,200
Speaker 2: out of position. It's very very concerning of how Arsenal

417
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 2: is going to be able to break them down. Now,

418
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:45,879
Speaker 2: I have Arsenal projected at minus two of six a

419
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 2: spread of minus one point two five, so I'm not there.

420
00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 2: I would say Arsenal's, you know, tad overvalued, and I've

421
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 2: said this once Arsenals started going on this run. I

422
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:59,719
Speaker 2: mean once they've they're obviously leading the Premier League title challenge.

423
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 2: Now I just purely as a fan, I'm not going

424
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Speaker 2: to bet against my team. I don't really care if

425
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:07,119
Speaker 2: there's value on a certain team against Arsenal. I'm just

426
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 2: not going to do it. I just can't. I I

427
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 2: love my club too much.

428
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 1: You're in, You're in a title. There's nothing wrong with that.

429
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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'm not You could do what Anthlete doesn't

430
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 2: have a different team. There's much value here on Brentford either.

431
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 2: I mean, if you're you're neutral and Brentford gets to

432
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 2: I don't know, they're not going to get to this,

433
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 2: but if they get to a plus one point five

434
00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 2: and even money, or maybe even a plus one point

435
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 2: seventy five, it's probably worth it to play Branford at

436
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 2: that point. But Narsenal is still fully healthy besides obviously

437
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 2: Gabriel Jyzeus, and honestly didn't matter. Obviously I think the

438
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 2: Cats it might be a better striker than him.

439
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 3: But we'll stop, stop stop, stop doing that.

440
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:51,600
Speaker 2: But I think you made a quality It's better than

441
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 2: all of it.

442
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,439
Speaker 3: You made a quick point, a.

443
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 1: Quick point there that everything kind of provided this blueprint

444
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,080
Speaker 1: on you know what what you need to do to

445
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 1: derail Arsenal. And they're now playing the second best manager

446
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 1: in the Premier League, probably after Dytche It's it's Thomas

447
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 1: Frank So like this is I think things are gonna

448
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 1: get a little rough. It's gonna be a little rough,

449
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 1: choppy waters for Arsenal who and they might just that

450
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 1: could just throw the whole race itto. Uh, you know,

451
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 1: disarray a little bit more than because you know City

452
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:24,120
Speaker 1: obviously what's going on with City, Like we could see

453
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 1: this become three or four teams as we get I don't.

454
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 2: Know about that.

455
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 3: Who though that is United and Newcastle.

456
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:31,520
Speaker 2: If it's.

457
00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,440
Speaker 1: Bright, Yeah, I think it's gonna be bit more interesting.

458
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 1: Uh United, But uh, Anthony, what are your thoughts here?

459
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 3: I mean, I I really want to bet the Bees.

460
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 3: I do uh like plus plus because I'm a coward, Michael,

461
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,399
Speaker 3: I'm I'm billing up the courage as we speak. I'm

462
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 3: gonna have I have until Saturday at nine fifty nine

463
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 3: am to do it.

464
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:53,920
Speaker 2: Uh.

465
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,880
Speaker 3: This market hadn't moved. You know, we saw Everton took

466
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 3: a ton of money. I think part of that had

467
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 3: to do with Liverpool also getting shipped on last weekend.

468
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 3: But Arsenal line didn't really move.

469
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 2: Wait to describe it, it was it.

470
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 3: Was minus two sixty like now it's finish two fifty,

471
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 3: so like not really a meaningful difference. BS plus one

472
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 3: and a half did take a little bit of money,

473
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 3: just moved it out of my range. But I still

474
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,439
Speaker 3: like the spot. I mean, people were saying, you know,

475
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 3: it's a great bounce back at home. They thrashed Branford

476
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 3: away from home. I mean, if you watched that game back,

477
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 3: like they scored their first two two half chances, it

478
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,639
Speaker 3: wasn't really like a thrashing. It was like a solid

479
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,479
Speaker 3: deserved road win, probably by like a goal, but they

480
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 3: won by three because of the finishing was in their

481
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,919
Speaker 3: favor that day. They scored off a set piece, you know,

482
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 3: little things that Brentford doesn't normally screw up. So Arsenal's

483
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,399
Speaker 3: defense has also shown a little bit of cracking in

484
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,880
Speaker 3: the last couple of couple of matches. You know, they've

485
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 3: they've had at least one expected goal in five out

486
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,880
Speaker 3: of six, which is notable to me. They have played

487
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 3: a relatively tough schedule. But remember we said that and

488
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 3: then we said, oh, Everton will be the reprieve, and

489
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:58,520
Speaker 3: then they went to Everton and gave up, you know

490
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 3: at one point five XG and you really got out

491
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 3: that spot wasn't fair, by the way, That's just wasn't fair.

492
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 3: But you know what, United had to face it today too.

493
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 2: Nobody, nobody on earth could have beaten Sean Diish new

494
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,959
Speaker 2: manager bounce at Everton and a and when they and

495
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 2: they needed it to not be relegated. There's just no

496
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 2: way anybody in the world could have ever beaten Everton

497
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:17,159
Speaker 2: in that spot.

498
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 3: I agree, So yeah, I also think it's just like

499
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 3: a weird look ahead spot with City on Wednesday, so

500
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 3: you're expecting to bounce back like they have to have

501
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 3: one eye on the biggest match of their season, which

502
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 3: is in four days four days after the match on Saturday.

503
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,879
Speaker 3: So I'm debating I'll end up with some type of

504
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 3: dollars on Brentford, whether it's the team total over, whether

505
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 3: it's the plus one and a half the first half.

506
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 3: I think they're all good looks. I just think that like,

507
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 3: we can't go away from what we've believed for a

508
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 3: long time. And if Arsenal had beaten Everton or even

509
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 3: drawn Everton, you would have said, oh yes, Brentford, Brentford, Brentford,

510
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 3: and so I think from my point of view, like

511
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 3: I'm close enough that I'm probably gonna just bite the

512
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 3: bullet and take the bees pallace.

513
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 1: Staying in London again pallaces plus two seventy five hosting

514
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 1: Brighton even money on the road. The draw is plus

515
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 1: two forty. This, of course, is the famous rivalry between

516
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 1: these two teams hate each other over an incident of

517
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 1: someone defecating in a locker room in Brighton. So we

518
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,399
Speaker 1: got another derby here. But I've got no betting interest

519
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 1: here at all. I think this is there's a couple

520
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,399
Speaker 1: of easy passes on the board as usual, this is

521
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 1: one of them.

522
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 4: Allis has scored two goals in its last five matches.

523
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 1: Now, they played a tough schedule United twice, Spurs, Newcastle

524
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,160
Speaker 1: and Chelsea. But we've talked about how concerning this team

525
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:41,360
Speaker 1: has looked for a long time now and nothing changes. Meanwhile,

526
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 1: they're gonna likely need to score to keep up with

527
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:47,120
Speaker 1: this Brighton attack, which is generated nearly twelve expected goles

528
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 1: in its last six matches. So easy pass here for me, BJ.

529
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 1: I know that this game for me and Anthony, it's

530
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 1: not all that excited. But you have something on this

531
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 1: match and also a play in the futures market.

532
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll bring forward the future in a second. That'll

533
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 2: be our weekly future hopefully for a profile that we

534
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 2: can put together for wonder goal listeners before the end

535
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 2: of the year and we can come back with with

536
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 2: winning zero of them. But anyway, I like Brighton's team

537
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 2: total over one and a half at plus one fifteen.

538
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 2: Like I have no interest to playing Brighton as a

539
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 2: road favorite, especially given how aggressive Deserby has been They're

540
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 2: gonna be with how Levi Colewell for this match has

541
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 2: been very, very important for them defensively, so I have

542
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 2: no interest to playing Brighton, and I have Brighton projected

543
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 2: at minus one or two, so really no interest there.

544
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 2: But since Deserbey has taken over Brighton, they are have

545
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 2: scored twenty seven goals in fourteen Premier League matches and

546
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 2: are averaging one point eight expected goals per ninety minutes.

547
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 2: They're now up to fifth in the Premier League inexpected

548
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 2: goals shots for ninety box entries, expected threat and being

549
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,439
Speaker 2: up to fifth and expected goals is important for the

550
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 2: point I'm about to say, and I've set up before

551
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 2: that Palace's defense is really bad when they have to

552
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 2: play good competition. Ten matches against the Big Six plus

553
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 2: Newcastle this season, they have conceded seventeen point four expected

554
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,879
Speaker 2: goals but against everybody else only twelve expected goals allowed

555
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:14,840
Speaker 2: in ten matches, and Palace when they fall behind, are

556
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 2: allowing over two expected goals for ninety wee Brighton's averaging

557
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 2: one point eight. So I do have Brighton projected for

558
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 2: one point seven one goals for this match, so over

559
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:25,719
Speaker 2: one and a half at plus one fifteen is good

560
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,879
Speaker 2: enough for me. But the future I'm bringing forward, and

561
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 2: it really pains me to do this because you know,

562
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 2: we were all over Palace in the futures market to

563
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 2: begin this season, Like I have a Palace over forty

564
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,199
Speaker 2: six and a half points and an over in a

565
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 2: top ten finish that you know, I think it's plus

566
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 2: two seventy five, which is both are pretty much drawing

567
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 2: dead at this point. But Palace is twelve, the one

568
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 2: to be relegated right now, and I think that does

569
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,400
Speaker 2: have some value if you look at Palace's upcoming schedule

570
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 2: in the very very short term. They've obviously got Brighton

571
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 2: this weekend a home, then they go to Brentford, they're

572
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 2: at home against Liverpool, they go on the road to Villa,

573
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,360
Speaker 2: they host City and then they go on the road

574
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:08,360
Speaker 2: to Arsenal. They could get zero to three points from

575
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 2: those matches, Like, given the way they've looked, I'm not

576
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 2: so sure that they're gonna get much from those. And

577
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,120
Speaker 2: then you couple that with the fact that they're only

578
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 2: six of points. I know, they're in twelfth place, they're

579
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 2: only six points above the drop zone. So in that

580
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 2: span of time, and then of course after Arsenal they

581
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 2: get a bunch of relegation six pointers against Leicester Leads, Southampton, Everton, Wolves,

582
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 2: et cetera. But we could be in a situation here

583
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 2: by the time we reach April, which is when their

584
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 2: schedule finally lightens up, that they're sitting one or two

585
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 2: points above the drop zone, or they're in the drop

586
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:48,040
Speaker 2: zone where teams like Everton and Wolves and maybe even Southampton,

587
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 2: teams that are due for some of this positive aggression,

588
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,959
Speaker 2: start to see it going forward. I think twelve to

589
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 2: one is a price to buy right now on Crystal Palace.

590
00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 3: Who.

591
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 2: I mean that every underlying metric that we look at

592
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 2: shows that they are a bottom five Premier League team

593
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 2: and they've continue to show that they've shown no sign

594
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,200
Speaker 2: of improvement. Zaha is still hurt. He's even though he's

595
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 2: getting up there in age, he's still their most productive forward.

596
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 2: So Crystal pal It really hurts me to do this

597
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 2: because we love this team so much coming into the season,

598
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 2: but they have just shown no signs of improving their

599
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 2: underlying metrics. Still sucks. So Palace at twelve to one,

600
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 2: we relegated, and I'm sure they'll finish like fourteenth and

601
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 2: they'll lose both top ten and relegation. But that's okay.

602
00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 2: So Palas twelve won't be relegated. Is the future that

603
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 2: I'm bringing forward this week.

604
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 3: It hurts.

605
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 2: I don't I don't want to know.

606
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 4: There's no but it does.

607
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 3: There's no attack at all, but their second to last

608
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 3: next week for ninety.

609
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's does. It takes a It takes a big man,

610
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 1: and it takes a big show to admit when we're

611
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 1: wrong and dead wrong. We were dead wrong about Crystal

612
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: Palace coming into the season. Full of minus one ten

613
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 1: hosting Nottingham Forest plus three twenty. The draw is plus

614
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 1: six fifty. Of course, these odds are from our friends

615
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 1: that bet three sixty five. Both both of these teams

616
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 1: are are due for some negative regression coming. I think

617
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 1: Forrest has figured out a way to just play these

618
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 1: low events snoozefest and come out better for it. Six

619
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 1: goals scored five against in their last six and their

620
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 1: expected goal differential is minus one point five six point

621
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 1: four created about eight given up in their last six matches,

622
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 1: So not too much going on when Forrest takes the field.

623
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 1: And the opposite, of course, is true for Fulham, who

624
00:30:39,800 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 1: total when you put together their expected goals created and conceded,

625
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 1: we're looking at nearly three per match and four goals against.

626
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:51,479
Speaker 1: Since the World Cup break, they're four one and two

627
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 1: Windrell loss on nine point four expected. So this defensive

628
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 1: regressions coming, I think I'm going to end up on

629
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 1: Ningham Forest here. It's not a bet I want to

630
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 1: make because I'd like them to get sucked into the

631
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:06,720
Speaker 1: relegation battle or further into the relegation battle for Everdeen's sake,

632
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 1: But at some point the Chickens are gonna come home

633
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 1: to roost with this Fulham defense.

634
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 4: There's no other way to put it.

635
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 1: It's just it's hard Anthony anything here Forrest and Fulham.

636
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 3: Yeah. I have a strong lean to Forrest and a

637
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 3: lean to the under as well. Just still not quite

638
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 3: buying this Fulham attack. Think they're overrated. I think there's holes.

639
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 3: I think regression is coming. I say this every week,

640
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 3: so I'm not going to keep saying it. But they

641
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 3: have started to show some troubles. There's some trouble of bruin,

642
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 3: at least for the attack. I mean, they failed to

643
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 3: score against Chelsea, which you know, you can't really knock

644
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 3: them for it, but even before that they had started

645
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 3: to you know, leak a little bit. You know, you

646
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,719
Speaker 3: failed to score against Spur, failed to score against Newcastle. Now,

647
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 3: of course Nottingham Forest is a significantly worse defense, but

648
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 3: they just had a Kayler Navas who's the greatest goal

649
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 3: lead of all time yep, and has never I've never

650
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 3: actually seen him concede a goal.

651
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 2: No for Costa Rica, not for against against Average, not

652
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 2: Real Madrid and not not m Forced.

653
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, I think it's actually a huge upgrade.

654
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 3: I mean, I like Henderson, I think he's fine, but

655
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 3: he was given up a lot of long range goals

656
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 3: and it was kind of hurting them. And then they had,

657
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 3: you know, the Hennessy matches, which were really bad. But

658
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:25,600
Speaker 3: like them fixing their defensive issues by just having an

659
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 3: ellege really stop all the shots could work could not.

660
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 3: I mean, he is older and like in theory won't

661
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 3: stop everything, and you know, is human, but it could

662
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 3: be enough and I think that, uh, you know, when

663
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 3: these two teams played earlier in the season, it was

664
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 3: a very even match. Was one of those matches where

665
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 3: Fulham took all their chances in true Fulham form. But

666
00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 3: I don't really see a huge gap between these two

667
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 3: teams in my ratings anymore. I've umpgraded not Eam Forest

668
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 3: since the season began, and I've got them even with Fulham,

669
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 3: So you know, home Field gets you almost there, but

670
00:32:56,480 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 3: like not quite. So yeah, I would look toward Forrest here.

671
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 1: If anything, Steve Cooper Man good Man, the.

672
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 2: Defensive regression is coming for Fulham. It might not be this,

673
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 2: but we.

674
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 3: Have to talk about the Fulham defense though, because like

675
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 3: they're xg allowed per ninety is really bad and you

676
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 3: look at it and then you factor in the fact

677
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 3: that they have had a lot of game state advantages.

678
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 3: But then there's other stuff where I'm like, you know,

679
00:33:16,640 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 3: like Paulina does such a good job of like not

680
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 3: letting teams get into their penalty area. They're they're a

681
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:25,680
Speaker 3: top ten twelve defense by like box entries allowed. So

682
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 3: I'm not really sure what to make of this full

683
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 3: I know we said earlier in the year, I said

684
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 3: I was buying Fulham, and then I said I was

685
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 3: selling Fulham, and I generally, I mean, obviously they're not

686
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 3: the seventh best team, but the market also doesn't think

687
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 3: they're the seventh best team in the league. So now

688
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 3: you know, Fulham sits there with their stats and it's like, okay,

689
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 3: when teams get into their area, they're very good at

690
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 3: creating big chances. They're dead last there. But like the

691
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 3: other the rest of the defensive profile, like ninth in

692
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 3: box entries allowed is not that bad ninth and progressive

693
00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 3: passes allowed, Like, I think there's a case to be

694
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 3: made that maybe it's not as bad, but also maybe

695
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 3: it's not as good.

696
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:05,719
Speaker 4: I don't know.

697
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 3: I'm back and forth on this Fulham defense. I don't

698
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 3: know what to make of it anymore.

699
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 2: Look aheadline real quick, and we'll get to it obviously

700
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 2: next week. But Brighton's hosting Fulham next weekend right Atlanta goal,

701
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 2: Brighten's only minus most, Brighten's only minus one thirty. I'm

702
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 2: gonna run a projection really quick live on the podcast.

703
00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:28,840
Speaker 2: I have Brighton projected at minus two thirty.

704
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 3: Jesus holy crap, I am not going to be that high.

705
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:35,879
Speaker 2: Okay, let's move on. We'll get to that next.

706
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:39,360
Speaker 1: We will move on Leicester sixty four. Leicester City is

707
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:42,800
Speaker 1: plus two to fifty this weekend. Take you on Tottenham

708
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 1: Hotspur plus one ten on the road the draws plus

709
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 1: two forty. This one is another pretty easy pass, uh

710
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 1: for me? Yeah? Nothing for BJ, Anthony. Just a couple

711
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,880
Speaker 1: of quick thoughts here on your Spurs.

712
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 2: They're the best team in the world.

713
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean early Holland didn't take a shot. We'll

714
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 3: talk about that on the other end in a minute.

715
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:06,720
Speaker 3: But Eric tire master class, Emerson Royale master class, two phrases.

716
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 3: I never thought I would say that was.

717
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:11,319
Speaker 2: An amazing competition can do to a person, right.

718
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:15,720
Speaker 3: Yes, yes, Emerson Royale under was never in doubt. Easy

719
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 3: money there. Good call on Spurs, BJ, We'll take our

720
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:20,440
Speaker 3: victory lap there. I thought this was actually going to

721
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 3: be a decent Spurs spot, especially since the Fox just

722
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 3: had a huge road win. But the numbers about where

723
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 3: I make it. The total opened higher and came down hard.

724
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,279
Speaker 3: Somebody hit that under hard. To the point now where

725
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 3: I have no value on it anymore. Sitting at two

726
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 3: and a half, at two and three quarters closer to three,

727
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,400
Speaker 3: which is where it was. I would have loved, loved

728
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:42,839
Speaker 3: the under one of my best bets of the year.

729
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:47,719
Speaker 3: But now at two and a half, I will pass Saints.

730
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:51,359
Speaker 1: This is a relegation six pointer. They need to start

731
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 1: making some headway here. There plus one eighty seven best

732
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,720
Speaker 1: manager in the world, Nathan Jones leading them. I gotta

733
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 1: be there for leading them against Wolverampton. Southampton is a

734
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 1: home underdog plus twenty eighty seven Wolves plus one fifty

735
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 1: plus two twenty. You two are in an agreement. I'm

736
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 1: passing here, so I'll just flip it right over to

737
00:36:09,680 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 1: you BJ.

738
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:12,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, should Southampton really be an underdog here?

739
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 2: I get it like they've been bad under Nathan Jones.

740
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:19,280
Speaker 2: I think you're at a minus four point five expected

741
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 2: gol differential since he's been in charge. Now, if you

742
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 2: read the little tea leaves coming from the South Coast,

743
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 2: it's that the players are questioning what tactics are we doing?

744
00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 2: Is he really that good of a manager? Like it's

745
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 2: and now there's discussions if they should sack him after

746
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 2: just what six or seven matches in charge, So that's

747
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:41,879
Speaker 2: not great. But at the same token, are we really

748
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,359
Speaker 2: just going to overreact to a Wolve's three nothing win

749
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,719
Speaker 2: over Liverpool, Like that was the first time that they

750
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 2: have created over one expected goal since November fifth, It's

751
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 2: been over three months. Obviously we had a World Cup break,

752
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 2: but Wolves hasn't carried over one expected goal in close

753
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 2: to three months, and that was the first time they

754
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 2: did it. So, I mean, we just keep talking about

755
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 2: this with Southampton team, about how they're going to have

756
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 2: to at some point progress forward. They're due for a

757
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 2: ton of positive aggression. Like defensively their tenth and non

758
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 2: penalty expectacles allowed. It's just been bad goalkeeping, bad luck.

759
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 2: They are allowing the fourth most big scoring chances, but

760
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:20,960
Speaker 2: Wolves has created the fewest big scoring chances in the

761
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 2: Premier League. I say, I don't know how many weeks

762
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 2: I can say it over and over again. They just

763
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 2: take all their shots from outside the box. Even if

764
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:29,839
Speaker 2: you look at Southampton, they're terrible on set pieces. Wolves

765
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 2: a third, last and next ye per set piece. There's

766
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 2: nothing in this that tells me that Wolves should be

767
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 2: a favorite on the road against this Southampton team at

768
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 2: the market is pricing I believe, way below what their

769
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:43,360
Speaker 2: metrics are telling us. So I like Southampton, John No

770
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 2: bet it even money?

771
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, I mean I have I have the

772
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 3: preview for this match. You can read it in the

773
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:54,359
Speaker 3: Action Network app and website yep, Thursday or Friday. But yeah,

774
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 3: I mean this is an overreaction. I mean the line

775
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 3: was a true pick them. Southampton is a small favorite.

776
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 3: Southamp was in I think we missed this last week.

777
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 3: They were in a horrendous spot. They played an EFL

778
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:10,240
Speaker 3: Cup semi first leg FA Cup match EFL second leg

779
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 3: and men had to play at Brentford at the weekend.

780
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:16,239
Speaker 3: So they had played three matches in about ten days,

781
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,319
Speaker 3: which you know, for the top six teams they're more

782
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 3: used to it. For a team like Southampton, they're not

783
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 3: used to that level. They don't have the squad depth

784
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 3: to pull that off. They went to Brentford, who had

785
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 3: not played in any of those time frames. They had

786
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 3: the weekend off because they're out of the Cup. They

787
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:30,479
Speaker 3: were not in the NFL Cup, and they looked dead.

788
00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 3: I mean they had no legs and the press was

789
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:34,839
Speaker 3: off and they got wrecked. I mean that's what happens.

790
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 3: There is a real thing that it can happen with

791
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,439
Speaker 3: like Southampton players not believing in the manager because they've

792
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 3: had all lucky breaks and like results by us, like,

793
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 3: oh we keep giving up all these goals, we suck

794
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 3: when in reality, like the goalies have been bad and

795
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 3: they've been unlucky. Like you said, the goalie Bazunu is

796
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 3: now twice as bad in a post shot. Expect a

797
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 3: difference than every other goalie in the league. Like I

798
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 3: don't think he's good, but he's nobody's that bad. Like

799
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 3: it's the Danny Ward thing over again. So yeah, I

800
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:03,799
Speaker 3: mean the market overreacted. I think the Wolves win at

801
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:06,760
Speaker 3: home said more about wool or said more about Liverpool

802
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 3: than it did about Wolves. So yeah, I love the

803
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:11,800
Speaker 3: Saints as a home dog here I have Wolves slightly

804
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 3: slightly better slightly so once you factor in home field,

805
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 3: I make Southampton a favorite here. I love the John

806
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 3: no Bett at home.

807
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:23,320
Speaker 1: Pick them born withth and Newcastle at twelve thirty pm

808
00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:26,959
Speaker 1: on Saturday. The Cherries plus four to seventy five at home,

809
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 1: Matt Pies minus one eighty eight on the road. That

810
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:34,320
Speaker 1: draws three to plus three thirty three. Once again, pretty

811
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 1: easy for me to just kind of move on from

812
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 1: this one. BJ quick thought here on Bournemuth and Newcastle

813
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:43,760
Speaker 1: before we flipped the page of Sunday.

814
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a pretty easy pass for me as well.

815
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:49,239
Speaker 2: Like I have Newcastle projected at minus one seventy eight.

816
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 2: The Bournemouth performance against Brighton, I think it's going to

817
00:39:53,400 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 2: be very indicative of what's going to happen here where

818
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:57,919
Speaker 2: they can seed over two expected goals. Brighton just didn't

819
00:39:57,920 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 2: take advantage of their chances in the first half and

820
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 2: eventuallyually the goal came through. One thing to note with

821
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:06,439
Speaker 2: Brentford or not Brnford, excuse me Bournemouth though, is that

822
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 2: there was a stretch of matches where Neto wasn't in

823
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:12,120
Speaker 2: goal and the backup goalkeeper if you look at post

824
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 2: shot actually plus minus he was right near Benuzu like

825
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 2: he was awful. And now they have Nato and goal

826
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 2: who has been better for them. They've obviously brought in

827
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 2: all these new attackers like Oatara and I'madreire so like

828
00:40:27,680 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 2: the Bournemouth attack has to improve, like at some point,

829
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 2: like they're going to score eventually. I don't know if

830
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 2: Newcastle is potentially the spot you know, like the stat

831
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 2: I mentioned, you know, final third entries converted into box entries.

832
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:42,919
Speaker 2: Newcastle is by far the best team in the Premier

833
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,600
Speaker 2: League get that category offensively going up against a Bournemouth

834
00:40:46,480 --> 00:40:48,839
Speaker 2: low block, but like they don't do the low block

835
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 2: very effectively. So again, yeah, very very easy pass for

836
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 2: me as well. And obviously newcastlett a look at spot

837
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 2: with Liverpool next weekend.

838
00:40:57,239 --> 00:40:58,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought we'd get an under number here, but

839
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 3: it's not good. It's yeah, they know, and and that

840
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:03,839
Speaker 3: I think that's a good point you made.

841
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:05,160
Speaker 2: You know, we talked, that's funny.

842
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:08,799
Speaker 3: They know, yeah, they And like I think the two

843
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 3: the first thing, like does anybody really believe that Newcastle

844
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:14,880
Speaker 3: is going to be the most efficient team in the

845
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:17,800
Speaker 3: whole league at turning final third entries into box entries?

846
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,760
Speaker 2: But like a lot of that's like what we mentioned

847
00:41:20,760 --> 00:41:23,080
Speaker 2: early on inas where it's like, yeah, it's like they

848
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 2: conceded possession. Teams didn't play a little blocks against them.

849
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 2: They didn't you know, necessarily believe that Newcastle was this

850
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:32,800
Speaker 2: like top four type team. And so Newcastle got a

851
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,520
Speaker 2: lot of transition opportunities and so it's very easy to convert,

852
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:37,880
Speaker 2: you know, when you're in transition rather than trying to

853
00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:38,799
Speaker 2: break down a little block.

854
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:42,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a classic. Like if we get an

855
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 3: early new Newcastle goal, well I guess maybe not because

856
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:46,879
Speaker 3: we don't like doing that with Newcastle, but like, that's

857
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,879
Speaker 3: it could be a good live undergame, be an early goal.

858
00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:53,080
Speaker 3: So that's I haven't seen Newcastle play from behind much

859
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:56,040
Speaker 3: this year, I feel like, which would be interesting to see.

860
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:58,239
Speaker 3: But Born With can't score, so we won't see it

861
00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 3: on Saturday.

862
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 1: This will sound familiar the twelve thirty Wait, quick, is

863
00:42:04,000 --> 00:42:04,959
Speaker 1: that the twelve thirty match?

864
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:08,759
Speaker 2: Yes, it is, Oh my gosh, okay, move on.

865
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,399
Speaker 3: The Germany one stinks too, so it's it's a rough

866
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 3: rough time.

867
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 1: The Islanders New York Islanders played twelve thirty on Saturday,

868
00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:17,839
Speaker 1: so there you go.

869
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, pretty out there fifty to one and when the

870
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 2: cup is stealing. According to Michael, this is.

871
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 1: Gonna sound familiar because it just happened Leeds. Today, Leeds

872
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:31,879
Speaker 1: United and Manchester United are playing once again, Leeds three

873
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:36,279
Speaker 1: to one at home, hosting the Red Devil's odds on

874
00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 1: minus twenty eighteen on the road of that Druss plus

875
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 1: two seventy five. It was a two two draw for

876
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:43,799
Speaker 1: Chris Armis and a bunch of other caretaker managers after

877
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 1: Jesse mars Is in charge, was fired in disgrace.

878
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 3: The whole squad of people, I don't know who's in charge.

879
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:51,399
Speaker 2: I literally stayed away from the Leeds because I knew Chris.

880
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 2: I thought Chris Armis was in charge, and now I

881
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 2: found out that it's just like a team of people.

882
00:42:55,560 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 2: And I was like, man, I really wish how to

883
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:57,239
Speaker 2: bed leads.

884
00:42:57,239 --> 00:43:03,560
Speaker 1: Then yeah, I what's another one that's got I've got

885
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 1: really no interest in betting here, but Anthony, you you

886
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:10,320
Speaker 1: just can't quit this leads team.

887
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:13,200
Speaker 3: That regret of the year of the year. I sat

888
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:15,399
Speaker 3: there all day to day and I said, I gotta

889
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:18,040
Speaker 3: bet leads, Gotta bet leads, gotta bet leads. You know what.

890
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:19,759
Speaker 3: I'll wait for the team total live because I know

891
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 3: they're going to score. And I think, you know, it

892
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 3: was like minus one thirty forty juice. I was like,

893
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 3: oh wait, you know ten minutes get you know, like

894
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:30,839
Speaker 3: the even money what minus one twenty that that pops.

895
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:34,319
Speaker 3: They scored in the first minute, which you know, good

896
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 3: for them, great result. I mean they got the point

897
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 3: that they probably deserved it on the balance, I thought, like,

898
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:41,839
Speaker 3: you know, I did definitely put the put the work

899
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:43,920
Speaker 3: on them in the in the middle stretch of that

900
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 3: match when they were Leads were kind of defending, and

901
00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 3: we saw kind of the perils of leads trying to

902
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,279
Speaker 3: defend deep like they're not very good at it. And

903
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:54,279
Speaker 3: so everybody who's like, oh, they pressed too much, they

904
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:56,919
Speaker 3: don't know how to manage a game, like we saw

905
00:43:56,920 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 3: what did happen when they tried to do that. It

906
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:02,520
Speaker 3: didn't go well. So I love leads here. I think

907
00:44:02,560 --> 00:44:07,359
Speaker 3: this is a classic spot. Uh you know the thing

908
00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:09,800
Speaker 3: about it is this is weird, right. We don't normally

909
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 3: see back to back league matches where they just trade

910
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 3: home and away. But what we have seen, and what

911
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:19,000
Speaker 3: I saw in that match was a United midfield that

912
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 3: had way way less gain control than you'd expect given

913
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:25,720
Speaker 3: how well they've played in the last month and a half.

914
00:44:26,320 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 3: And I think that's going to be an even bigger

915
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 3: issue going on the road to Leads as a road favorite.

916
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:33,759
Speaker 2: Because ye still no Casimiro, which is.

917
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:37,279
Speaker 3: Obviously no Casamiro, no Erickson, so that means it's a

918
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 3: Fred sabbatser midfield and that is light defensively, like you

919
00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:44,359
Speaker 3: don't have the organization, the control, and I don't know

920
00:44:44,400 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 3: that leads score the first goal of Casimira is playing right,

921
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:48,120
Speaker 3: that's the difference.

922
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 2: So here's the thing. And then I think, you know,

923
00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 2: from a bigger picture of why Jesse Marsh failed at

924
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 2: leads is essentially that not you know, obviously I don't

925
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 2: think he's a great manager, but leads thrives when matches

926
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:01,239
Speaker 2: are up and down transitional. And but you saw it

927
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 2: against Nottingham Forrest, like if you just hand them the

928
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:05,400
Speaker 2: ball and say like break down a little blocker, you

929
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:07,319
Speaker 2: tell them like we're gonna pin you inside the final third,

930
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 2: this game is not gonna be transitional. They struggle. So

931
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:14,480
Speaker 2: suddenly that's something to look out for in the betting market. Now,

932
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 2: who knows who they're gonna You know, there's two managers

933
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 2: that they're it's kind of like they're both even money

934
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 2: to be hired as the fine Ord manager and I

935
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 2: believe the Viacount manager. Right, we had the two that

936
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 2: are he turned them down. Yeah, so it's the Nord manager.

937
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 2: I guess it's the only one left. And they rolled

938
00:45:33,239 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 2: out Bielsa coming back, which I thought would have been

939
00:45:34,920 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 2: hilarious if he if he did, uh, but yeah no,

940
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 2: it's uh, yeah, I have I might be on you

941
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 2: with leads for this match, like I yeah, I agree,

942
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 2: Bet regretted the year because again, like I said, I

943
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:49,480
Speaker 2: thought Chrs arm Moss was in charge, which I was like,

944
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 2: I want no part of that if he is running anything,

945
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 2: but it sounds like it's just team people and that

946
00:45:55,800 --> 00:46:00,359
Speaker 2: he's maybe not directing things. So I might be you,

947
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 2: uh with Leeds because again I've said it before, but

948
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 2: like passa Miro even if just looking at the splits

949
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 2: on and off, like United is at point eight, expect

950
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:12,359
Speaker 2: ninety with him off the field or with him on

951
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:14,760
Speaker 2: the field with him off, they're at like one point six,

952
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, they can't. They can't defend a transition as well,

953
00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 2: you know. So it's a little things too.

954
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:25,279
Speaker 3: And and like even within games, if you go back

955
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:27,320
Speaker 3: and look like the Palace game, they led one nill

956
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 3: he came off eightieth minute, United went like hay Wire

957
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 3: and blew the game. I'm lucky to blow it, but

958
00:46:32,120 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 3: like gave away multiple possessions in bad areas. The same

959
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 3: problem came after he got the red card. Now, granted,

960
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 3: like the red cards kind of extreme. You know, they're

961
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:43,959
Speaker 3: down a man, but they had they had no idea

962
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:45,400
Speaker 3: what they were doing in the last ten minutes against

963
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 3: new against Palace and even going back earlier in the season,

964
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:52,239
Speaker 3: like we've seen this before and now they don't even

965
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:54,000
Speaker 3: have the depth. So you know, it's it's not a

966
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:57,879
Speaker 3: great spot for United either. You just played the team.

967
00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:00,440
Speaker 3: Now you got to go to their place. Leads are

968
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:02,319
Speaker 3: not a fun team to play. They you know, they

969
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:03,879
Speaker 3: press you high, they make you work, they make games

970
00:47:03,920 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 3: for netic. And United does have Barcelona in the Europa

971
00:47:07,160 --> 00:47:08,319
Speaker 3: League this week too, so.

972
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 2: I think that Barsa it's.

973
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:12,239
Speaker 3: Going to be good. I mean, you're laying juice there,

974
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:16,400
Speaker 3: big juice, but maybe on United. But uh yeah, I

975
00:47:16,440 --> 00:47:21,560
Speaker 3: think that it's not a great spot. I think it

976
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 3: favors the underdog, the underdog who had the lead and

977
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 3: blew it. Now, if United had lost, you know, maybe

978
00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 3: it's a little bit different. You know, you refocus, go again.

979
00:47:27,760 --> 00:47:29,919
Speaker 3: But because they got the draw, it's like a sigh

980
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 3: of relief in my view. And I just think that

981
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:34,879
Speaker 3: the line's wrong too. I mean, that's that's a big

982
00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:36,880
Speaker 3: part of it. Yeah, I make them plus one seventeen

983
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:39,239
Speaker 3: on the road here, so I love leads catching a

984
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 3: half goal.

985
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:41,879
Speaker 4: All right, we got to talk about this one.

986
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:42,440
Speaker 2: Finally.

987
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:47,600
Speaker 1: City they're in some trouble. They're in the bad boy

988
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 1: chair minus four hundred hosting Acid Villa eight to one.

989
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 1: The draw is six to one. News came out of that.

990
00:47:57,239 --> 00:48:01,800
Speaker 1: Potential sanctions or maybe points to Dutch or kicking City

991
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:05,399
Speaker 1: out of the league. Wherever you want to go with it.

992
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:09,880
Speaker 1: Maybe they could take Liverpool with them on their way out.

993
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 2: Can you do it on a rainy night in Colchester?

994
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:15,799
Speaker 4: Michael, Yeah, I can. I don't know.

995
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 1: I don't know if early Holland can. Villa has been

996
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:21,800
Speaker 1: improving under Unayamori. This situation is so weird for City.

997
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:26,279
Speaker 1: I don't particularly think it's a great bet like, but

998
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:28,719
Speaker 1: with the kind of balls in the air, it's Villa

999
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:31,879
Speaker 1: or nothing here, it's just going to be a kind

1000
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:36,520
Speaker 1: of strange atmosphere. I know you two are also in

1001
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:41,560
Speaker 1: agreement here, willing to back Villa to keep it relatively close.

1002
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 1: Ain't that right? BJ?

1003
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:46,759
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think this is a great spot here for

1004
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:51,200
Speaker 2: Villa if you look so. I thought the performance that

1005
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:53,760
Speaker 2: Todden them. Putting against City is probably their best performance

1006
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 2: I've seen them have this year, especially defensively they are

1007
00:48:57,120 --> 00:48:59,399
Speaker 2: you know, obviously they're elite at defending their penalty area,

1008
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 2: and they held sit under one expected goal. It was

1009
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 2: a fantastic performance, but it also highlights kind of what's

1010
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:08,440
Speaker 2: happening with City. So Pep tried tried to change the

1011
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:10,160
Speaker 2: formation to a four to four to two so to

1012
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 2: get somebody to supply Alvarez alongside Holland, and it just

1013
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:17,399
Speaker 2: didn't It just didn't work. And so what City's trying

1014
00:49:17,440 --> 00:49:18,759
Speaker 2: to do is they're trying to build up in a

1015
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:22,280
Speaker 2: three to two three to two. Well, what often happens

1016
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:25,319
Speaker 2: with that is that he scrunches everything so narrow and

1017
00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 2: then greenish and whoever they plan the right, whether it

1018
00:49:28,160 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 2: be Mares, whether it be Silba, whoever, they just get

1019
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:33,440
Speaker 2: left alone on an island out there with no support.

1020
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:36,480
Speaker 2: So there's no consalo, there's no Kyle Walker to come

1021
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:39,760
Speaker 2: and supply those overlapping runs or whatever it is. So

1022
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:42,360
Speaker 2: now City is stuck with this position of like, we

1023
00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:44,839
Speaker 2: have to build through the middle of the pitch because

1024
00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:47,319
Speaker 2: our wingers are isolated. And I think that's why you

1025
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:51,799
Speaker 2: saw Holland not get any touches is because they're so

1026
00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 2: obsessed with playing through the middle of the pitch. Tom's

1027
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 2: very elite at doing that, and they had a great

1028
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 2: game plan to keep earlying Holland at Bay. And I mean,

1029
00:49:56,960 --> 00:49:58,600
Speaker 2: this is what we've been saying for how many weeks

1030
00:49:58,640 --> 00:50:01,440
Speaker 2: that Holland has made City worse or made them more predictable,

1031
00:50:01,480 --> 00:50:04,640
Speaker 2: whatever you want to call it. So now you got

1032
00:50:04,640 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 2: to face soon Iamory's team, who I mean, yeah, they

1033
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:09,560
Speaker 2: conceded four goals to Lester, but if you saw how

1034
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 2: they conceded some of those, I mean, the first one

1035
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:14,040
Speaker 2: was on one of the dumbest mistakes I've I've seen

1036
00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:15,640
Speaker 2: a long time trying to build out of the back.

1037
00:50:15,960 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 2: You know, Lester got a perfect cross in there. Guy

1038
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 2: lost a man, and then you know the other two.

1039
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 2: The match was kind of you know, haywire and and

1040
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:26,279
Speaker 2: game state obviously matters, but n Iamori's teams do such

1041
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:28,279
Speaker 2: a good job at defending in between the lines, and

1042
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:29,640
Speaker 2: I have no doubt they're gonna be able to do

1043
00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:32,920
Speaker 2: that here as well. I mean, City they just consistently

1044
00:50:32,960 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 2: are putting up under one expected goal and that's a

1045
00:50:35,239 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 2: big problem. And Another thing is is they're not that

1046
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:43,239
Speaker 2: great defending in transition either, like you know, instead, I've

1047
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:45,800
Speaker 2: you know, mentioned I don't know seven thousand times already,

1048
00:50:45,800 --> 00:50:49,320
Speaker 2: but you know, final third box entry conversion rate City,

1049
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 2: although it's a small sample size for them, so you

1050
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:52,759
Speaker 2: kind of have to take that with a grain of salt.

1051
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:55,440
Speaker 2: They're dead last in the Premier League. Like once teams

1052
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 2: are able to go in transition, they're able to get

1053
00:50:57,080 --> 00:50:58,360
Speaker 2: from the final throat and the end of the box

1054
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 2: more effectively against City than anybody else in the Premier League.

1055
00:51:02,400 --> 00:51:05,239
Speaker 2: So I do like Villa at plus two. You know,

1056
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:09,800
Speaker 2: I have Cities spread projected at minus one point seven,

1057
00:51:10,040 --> 00:51:13,720
Speaker 2: so you know, plus two at minus one thirty about,

1058
00:51:14,160 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 2: you know, minus one thirty minus one thirty five is

1059
00:51:16,000 --> 00:51:18,399
Speaker 2: but as high as i'd go. But it's another good

1060
00:51:18,400 --> 00:51:20,840
Speaker 2: spot situation, because we've already mentioned sit He's got Arsenal

1061
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 2: on Wednesday, which is a massive match for them because

1062
00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 2: if they lose that, they're eight points behind Arsenal and

1063
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:29,560
Speaker 2: Arsenal as a game in hands. So I like Villain

1064
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:31,759
Speaker 2: plus two. I think there's some decent value there and

1065
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 2: I really question whether City. You know, well, we'll talk

1066
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 2: about City and Leipzig next week. But I really question

1067
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:42,320
Speaker 2: if these problems for City are gonna you know, I

1068
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:44,120
Speaker 2: don't think they're gonna be fixed any time soon.

1069
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:47,239
Speaker 3: If City scores three or four and beats me here,

1070
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:50,080
Speaker 3: wins this game by three plus goals quick for them, Yeah,

1071
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:53,799
Speaker 3: tip my cap, the good job, great win. Congrats to

1072
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:56,239
Speaker 3: the book on my unit, you know, on that match,

1073
00:51:56,920 --> 00:51:59,279
Speaker 3: I don't see it. Like there is no more like

1074
00:51:59,360 --> 00:52:03,160
Speaker 3: mid table in mid table team than Villa. Like they're

1075
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:05,439
Speaker 3: not great at anything, they're not bad at anything. They're

1076
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:06,600
Speaker 3: just kind of like a team.

1077
00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 2: Who exists less steepen jards in charge than their top

1078
00:52:09,239 --> 00:52:09,680
Speaker 2: six team.

1079
00:52:09,920 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 3: By the way, I was wrong about Yard, I'm not

1080
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 3: wrong about Marsh But anyway, oh.

1081
00:52:13,040 --> 00:52:16,959
Speaker 2: Stop, and he's gonna run the United States men's national

1082
00:52:17,040 --> 00:52:20,000
Speaker 2: team into the ground. I know our guy winn Alda

1083
00:52:20,000 --> 00:52:20,719
Speaker 2: would agree with me.

1084
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:23,160
Speaker 3: We'll have to get him on and see what he said.

1085
00:52:23,320 --> 00:52:26,719
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, look, I think that like I said, though,

1086
00:52:26,760 --> 00:52:29,680
Speaker 3: I mean the Villa Emery has always had a good

1087
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:31,600
Speaker 3: game plan when going up against the big sides. That's

1088
00:52:31,600 --> 00:52:34,600
Speaker 3: been true everywhere. He's been especially true at Virial, you know,

1089
00:52:34,640 --> 00:52:36,399
Speaker 3: the last couple of years going up against the big

1090
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 3: You know, we always said this with Virial, like they

1091
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 3: were always played up well against Barcelona, Real Madrid, even

1092
00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 3: in the Champions League of course, taking off some big scalps,

1093
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:48,799
Speaker 3: Like this team is still a well organized defense that

1094
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 3: will be difficult to break down from the middle. They

1095
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 3: will let you cross and they will, but like you

1096
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:56,920
Speaker 3: said said, he's not really like using the crosses as

1097
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 3: much as normal, and they're not really taking advantage of

1098
00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 3: set p which is one area where Villa has really

1099
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:05,120
Speaker 3: struggled defensively. So I think this is a great Villa

1100
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:07,239
Speaker 3: plus two. I don't think City is good, and I

1101
00:53:07,239 --> 00:53:08,800
Speaker 3: don't think there's anybody good enough this year to be

1102
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:11,240
Speaker 3: laying two against the big against the mid table team.

1103
00:53:11,360 --> 00:53:13,319
Speaker 3: Earlier this year City laid two to Palace and I

1104
00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:15,759
Speaker 3: was like, it's too many. That was when City was

1105
00:53:15,800 --> 00:53:20,279
Speaker 3: flying high and Palath ended up being worse. Now like

1106
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:22,920
Speaker 3: they're still laying two despite them, Like I don't I

1107
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:25,600
Speaker 3: don't understand how the market hasn't downgraded them yet and

1108
00:53:25,640 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 3: they're a road favorite at Arsenal next week too. It's

1109
00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:30,719
Speaker 3: it's really interesting to me because somebody asked me the

1110
00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:32,840
Speaker 3: other day, like does Pep want to win the league, Like,

1111
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:34,959
Speaker 3: why is he playing de Brona because that doesn't make sense.

1112
00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 2: He's it's he's so afraid. I've been reading a lot

1113
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:40,640
Speaker 2: of City like tactical stuff, and I think what it

1114
00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:43,879
Speaker 2: is is, well, what happened is is like when when

1115
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:46,440
Speaker 2: Tottenham played City, you know, in previous times, is like

1116
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:49,400
Speaker 2: they've punished them in transition and obviously is not a

1117
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:52,080
Speaker 2: transitional defensive type of guy. So Pep has gone with

1118
00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:55,279
Speaker 2: a more defensive type approach so that if they do

1119
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:57,680
Speaker 2: lose the ball, they don't get beat in transition that easily.

1120
00:53:58,239 --> 00:54:02,760
Speaker 2: And De Bruyna doesn't really fit into what he wants

1121
00:54:02,800 --> 00:54:04,640
Speaker 2: to do with their build up play, which I mean,

1122
00:54:04,680 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 2: you know, it doesn't really make much sense to me,

1123
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:07,760
Speaker 2: but that's what kind of the city people are saying.

1124
00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:11,200
Speaker 2: So I don't overthink. It's an overthink, is what it is.

1125
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:15,759
Speaker 2: It's exactly right, Anthony, So who knows again, And then also,

1126
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:18,720
Speaker 2: like you said, like there's this nothing's going to happen

1127
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 2: in the near future according to all the reports, but

1128
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:24,480
Speaker 2: there is this overarching cloud of like sanctions, so it's

1129
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:26,799
Speaker 2: gonna be at least like somewhat on the mind. Of

1130
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:28,759
Speaker 2: players being like, am I going to be here next year?

1131
00:54:29,239 --> 00:54:31,080
Speaker 3: I think it was twenty twenty, right, they were they

1132
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,399
Speaker 3: the same thing happened where it was like the right band.

1133
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:33,600
Speaker 4: Yea.

1134
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:36,839
Speaker 3: I remember reading in the paper like they're gonna they're

1135
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:38,239
Speaker 3: gonna go to the fifth division, Like me and my

1136
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:40,719
Speaker 3: buddy and I were joking about it and then we're like,

1137
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:43,880
Speaker 3: nothing's gonna happen. They'll get a fine, like a transfer ban.

1138
00:54:44,040 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 3: That's my prediction.

1139
00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:45,920
Speaker 4: You can't.

1140
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:49,600
Speaker 1: You can't piss off an entire country. They'll just take

1141
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:51,640
Speaker 1: away all all the funding from the league that they

1142
00:54:51,719 --> 00:54:55,400
Speaker 1: give through advertisements and shady deals and stuff, so.

1143
00:54:56,000 --> 00:54:56,920
Speaker 2: No more fly amorous.

1144
00:54:57,400 --> 00:55:02,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, transfer band is my official prediction. Like two two windows.

1145
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:04,120
Speaker 3: That's what they gave Chelsea At least I think.

1146
00:55:03,960 --> 00:55:04,359
Speaker 4: It was.

1147
00:55:06,440 --> 00:55:10,279
Speaker 1: All right. That wraps up the Premier League. It's a

1148
00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 1: great note to wrap it up on possible sanctions for

1149
00:55:14,200 --> 00:55:16,719
Speaker 1: Man City onto the Bundesliga.

1150
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:21,680
Speaker 2: Onto ubj Unjan Berlin RB Leipzig both teams to score

1151
00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:26,879
Speaker 2: nope at minus one fifteen. I love this Unjan Berlin team.

1152
00:55:26,920 --> 00:55:29,359
Speaker 2: They are so hilarious and awesome at the same time.

1153
00:55:29,520 --> 00:55:33,719
Speaker 2: They are really really good defensively, like they are only

1154
00:55:33,760 --> 00:55:36,279
Speaker 2: allowing one non penal leaguesped goal per ninety in the

1155
00:55:36,320 --> 00:55:39,320
Speaker 2: highest scoring league in Europe's top five leagues. And here's

1156
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:41,960
Speaker 2: why they're so good. As they play their low defensive block,

1157
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:43,919
Speaker 2: which is usually a five to three to two, they'll

1158
00:55:43,960 --> 00:55:47,840
Speaker 2: hardly ever press you and they just will not allow

1159
00:55:47,880 --> 00:55:51,719
Speaker 2: you into their penaltarias second fewest box entries allowed in

1160
00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 2: the Bundesliga, behind only Bayern Munich. And I mean, their

1161
00:55:54,640 --> 00:55:56,879
Speaker 2: offense is just hilarious. It's just long balls up the pitch.

1162
00:55:56,920 --> 00:56:00,560
Speaker 2: They scored thirty three goals of twenty one point eight expected.

1163
00:56:01,280 --> 00:56:02,680
Speaker 2: They do love to get the ball out. Why they

1164
00:56:02,680 --> 00:56:04,799
Speaker 2: swing the most crosses in the box of anybody in

1165
00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:09,120
Speaker 2: the Bundesliga. I mean, Leipzig's defense is top three. They're

1166
00:56:09,320 --> 00:56:11,280
Speaker 2: very very good at defending frosts. And the one weakness

1167
00:56:11,320 --> 00:56:13,800
Speaker 2: that Leipzig has had is their dead last in the

1168
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:16,480
Speaker 2: Bundesliga in next g allowed per set piece. Well, Unjan

1169
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:18,839
Speaker 2: Blin is the worst set piece team in the Bundesliga.

1170
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:22,160
Speaker 2: So and also if you look, you know Leipzig is

1171
00:56:22,200 --> 00:56:25,080
Speaker 2: gonna be without in Cucku and Danny Olmo and Kuku's

1172
00:56:25,080 --> 00:56:28,120
Speaker 2: obviously their best offensive threat right now, so just gonna

1173
00:56:28,120 --> 00:56:30,960
Speaker 2: make things even more difficult trying to break down the

1174
00:56:32,120 --> 00:56:35,240
Speaker 2: I want to say Berlin Wall, but that sounds bad

1175
00:56:35,520 --> 00:56:38,120
Speaker 2: to break down Unyar and Blin's defense. So I like

1176
00:56:38,200 --> 00:56:41,000
Speaker 2: both teams to score no at minus one fifteen. Far

1177
00:56:41,280 --> 00:56:43,600
Speaker 2: pretty cheap price on that for two of the three

1178
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:45,400
Speaker 2: best defenses in the league.

1179
00:56:46,000 --> 00:56:47,799
Speaker 1: I'm sticking in that game. For my favorite bet in

1180
00:56:47,800 --> 00:56:49,880
Speaker 1: the Bundesliga, I like Unyan on the money line for

1181
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:53,040
Speaker 1: to one. Like you said, this is a defensive powerhouse.

1182
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:55,360
Speaker 1: They kind of remind me. They give me mind vibes

1183
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:57,959
Speaker 1: from last year both since mine.

1184
00:56:58,200 --> 00:56:59,360
Speaker 2: I agree.

1185
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 1: They do for sure turn turn a game into a

1186
00:57:02,080 --> 00:57:04,800
Speaker 1: coin flip. See what happens. It's a huge game obviously

1187
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:09,000
Speaker 1: on the table Unan. If they're gonna win the title,

1188
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:12,120
Speaker 1: they're gonna need they probably are.

1189
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:16,080
Speaker 4: Uh, Anthony, are you staying in this game too?

1190
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:17,280
Speaker 1: I'm not.

1191
00:57:17,960 --> 00:57:20,680
Speaker 3: I did write a full preview for the Bundesliga with

1192
00:57:20,720 --> 00:57:22,800
Speaker 3: my three best bets. This might be my favorite Bundesliga

1193
00:57:22,840 --> 00:57:24,520
Speaker 3: card the weekend, so you can pencil me in for

1194
00:57:24,600 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 3: three defeats, but I'm gonna go with Stutegart plus a

1195
00:57:30,320 --> 00:57:33,880
Speaker 3: half minus one ten or better at home. I think

1196
00:57:33,880 --> 00:57:36,040
Speaker 3: you can find even money plus plus money out there

1197
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:40,320
Speaker 3: right now. Uh, Stutgart is at Freiburg and Stuttgart is

1198
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:43,400
Speaker 3: I mean, the team makes no sense from a from

1199
00:57:43,200 --> 00:57:47,040
Speaker 3: an underlying numbers perspective, This team is like a sleeping giant.

1200
00:57:47,680 --> 00:57:50,479
Speaker 3: They have everything you'd want in like a top half

1201
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:54,120
Speaker 3: team in the Bundesliga. They do it and then it

1202
00:57:54,240 --> 00:57:56,520
Speaker 3: just gets into the penalty area and everything falls apart.

1203
00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:58,440
Speaker 3: They've had so much variance go against them. They are

1204
00:57:58,480 --> 00:58:01,520
Speaker 3: sitting with an above average expected goal difference. Yeah, they're

1205
00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:03,480
Speaker 3: in sixteenth and if the season ended today, they'd be

1206
00:58:03,480 --> 00:58:07,120
Speaker 3: in a relegation playoff. Stutgart has better numbers than Freiburg

1207
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:11,160
Speaker 3: in most metrics. Stutgart attack is better, an expected threat

1208
00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:17,600
Speaker 3: better in shots. Freiburg is tenth and expected threat Stutgart fourth. Defensively,

1209
00:58:17,600 --> 00:58:21,160
Speaker 3: they're pretty even teams. Freiburg gives up you know, much

1210
00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:24,720
Speaker 3: longer shots and thus you know, gets away with more

1211
00:58:24,960 --> 00:58:28,600
Speaker 3: I think generally, but stut Gart like, they're still like

1212
00:58:28,680 --> 00:58:30,760
Speaker 3: about even. So I don't really have much difference between

1213
00:58:30,760 --> 00:58:32,640
Speaker 3: these two teams. So I'm gonna take the plus a

1214
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:34,560
Speaker 3: half and you know, plus money at home or on

1215
00:58:34,600 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 3: the road rather and take stut Gart. I also like

1216
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:40,640
Speaker 3: COLNB at home against Frankfurt. Home run spot for COLN.

1217
00:58:41,680 --> 00:58:44,120
Speaker 3: The defense has been really improving the whole. I mean

1218
00:58:44,160 --> 00:58:46,200
Speaker 3: everything about this Colin team I think is trending in

1219
00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 3: the right direction. I think they're even with Frankfurt, so

1220
00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:50,600
Speaker 3: getting them at home as a pick when I think

1221
00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:53,160
Speaker 3: they're even teams is a huge spot. And you know,

1222
00:58:53,200 --> 00:58:56,360
Speaker 3: Frankfurt did have a midweek match whereas Colan was off,

1223
00:58:56,400 --> 00:58:59,080
Speaker 3: so definitely helps them from a rest perspective as well.

1224
00:59:00,120 --> 00:59:03,680
Speaker 3: Syria A Anthony, Yeah, Friday, I like two bets in

1225
00:59:03,720 --> 00:59:05,280
Speaker 3: the same game. I like Tina plus a half and

1226
00:59:05,320 --> 00:59:07,800
Speaker 3: I like Under two and a half. This Milan attack

1227
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:10,160
Speaker 3: is just kind of falling apart here, and we've talked

1228
00:59:10,160 --> 00:59:13,080
Speaker 3: about this for so long on this show and it

1229
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 3: finally happened, and I really didn't catch in enough. I

1230
00:59:15,080 --> 00:59:17,520
Speaker 3: think I only faded them once in the last stretch

1231
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:19,360
Speaker 3: of matches. But since they have come out of the

1232
00:59:19,400 --> 00:59:23,040
Speaker 3: World Cup break, they have one win, two draws, five

1233
00:59:23,160 --> 00:59:26,280
Speaker 3: losses in all competitions. The market has seemed heavily against them.

1234
00:59:26,800 --> 00:59:29,360
Speaker 3: In their Champions League match, which is on Tuesday against

1235
00:59:29,360 --> 00:59:32,480
Speaker 3: Tottenham they are now basically a pickup after being minus

1236
00:59:32,560 --> 00:59:35,840
Speaker 3: a half huge steam. The biggest thing though, the attack

1237
00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:38,320
Speaker 3: got a huge leap from Leo Ralfi Laout took a

1238
00:59:38,360 --> 00:59:40,200
Speaker 3: huge step forward the first half of the season, but

1239
00:59:40,240 --> 00:59:41,960
Speaker 3: the attack didn't get better. They just kind of stayed

1240
00:59:42,000 --> 00:59:44,680
Speaker 3: the same. Everybody else got worse around him, and now

1241
00:59:44,760 --> 00:59:46,880
Speaker 3: Leo is in a bit of a form problem. He

1242
00:59:46,920 --> 00:59:48,880
Speaker 3: hasn't been very good since the World Cup. He's been dropped.

1243
00:59:48,920 --> 00:59:51,600
Speaker 3: He's been coming off the bench for like ten minutes.

1244
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:55,080
Speaker 3: They didn't get a shot off at Inter against Inter

1245
00:59:55,560 --> 00:59:58,440
Speaker 3: until the sixtieth minute on Sunday. It was embarrassing. They

1246
00:59:58,480 --> 01:00:01,680
Speaker 3: finished with four total, all bad shots, none of them

1247
01:00:01,720 --> 01:00:04,320
Speaker 3: on target. And now they play Tono, who is not

1248
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:06,440
Speaker 3: the team you want to play when you have issues

1249
01:00:06,600 --> 01:00:09,880
Speaker 3: going forward. Terno is actually, I'll make the case better

1250
01:00:09,880 --> 01:00:12,720
Speaker 3: than their underlying numbers. Even though their undnine numbers say

1251
01:00:12,760 --> 01:00:15,120
Speaker 3: that they're like fifth and or their fifth and goals

1252
01:00:15,120 --> 01:00:17,640
Speaker 3: allowed fifth and expected goals allowed, I actually think they're better.

1253
01:00:17,720 --> 01:00:20,080
Speaker 3: I make them the third best defense in Italy. I

1254
01:00:20,120 --> 01:00:23,520
Speaker 3: think it's a good difficult spot from Milan still despite

1255
01:00:23,560 --> 01:00:25,880
Speaker 3: all these losses. So I like Terno and.

1256
01:00:25,880 --> 01:00:28,439
Speaker 1: Under anything for you here, bj Yeah.

1257
01:00:28,440 --> 01:00:30,919
Speaker 2: How about Bologna Monza over two and a half goals

1258
01:00:30,920 --> 01:00:34,000
Speaker 2: at plus one twenty Mons has been playing just chaotic

1259
01:00:34,080 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 2: matches out of the World Cup break, last six matches

1260
01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:39,240
Speaker 2: have averaged three point one expected goals. The Bologna offense

1261
01:00:40,440 --> 01:00:42,439
Speaker 2: has been with al Margo Nautovich for a little while,

1262
01:00:42,480 --> 01:00:45,040
Speaker 2: but they've created six point five expected goals in their

1263
01:00:45,120 --> 01:00:47,920
Speaker 2: last four matches without him, including two expected goals against

1264
01:00:47,920 --> 01:00:50,520
Speaker 2: Fiorentine on the road over the weekend, Monza dead last

1265
01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:53,440
Speaker 2: and Syria and big scoring chances allowed. The Blunde defense

1266
01:00:53,480 --> 01:00:55,640
Speaker 2: also really isn't that good themselves? Are fifteenth and non

1267
01:00:55,680 --> 01:00:59,040
Speaker 2: penalty expected goals allowed thirteenth and expected threat twelfth and

1268
01:00:59,120 --> 01:01:02,360
Speaker 2: big scoring chances allowed well Bonza listen. I said a

1269
01:01:02,400 --> 01:01:04,440
Speaker 2: lot of bad things about them on our Futures podcast,

1270
01:01:04,480 --> 01:01:05,959
Speaker 2: and early on in the season they had a bad

1271
01:01:05,960 --> 01:01:07,760
Speaker 2: stretch to start at the season they were adjusting to

1272
01:01:07,800 --> 01:01:09,840
Speaker 2: life in Syria A, getting a lot of their new

1273
01:01:09,840 --> 01:01:13,480
Speaker 2: signings into the starting eleven. Since October first, they've created

1274
01:01:13,600 --> 01:01:16,600
Speaker 2: nineteen point six expected goals in their last fourteen matches.

1275
01:01:16,640 --> 01:01:19,360
Speaker 2: That's eighth best in Syria A and I do project

1276
01:01:19,600 --> 01:01:22,080
Speaker 2: around two point six goals for this match. So if

1277
01:01:22,080 --> 01:01:23,640
Speaker 2: you're giving me plus one twenty on over two and

1278
01:01:23,640 --> 01:01:25,880
Speaker 2: a half, I think there's some good value there.

1279
01:01:26,320 --> 01:01:29,400
Speaker 1: Te l Aliga BJA, You're you're on your own here.

1280
01:01:29,600 --> 01:01:32,920
Speaker 2: I know. Unfortunately, I regret to inform everybody that the

1281
01:01:32,920 --> 01:01:35,480
Speaker 2: both teams of score no streak is over. Caudi scored

1282
01:01:35,920 --> 01:01:39,320
Speaker 2: against Bilbao, which is just sad. So I'm gonna I'm

1283
01:01:39,320 --> 01:01:41,120
Speaker 2: gonna do something a little different and not take a

1284
01:01:41,120 --> 01:01:42,800
Speaker 2: both teams to score now because actually don't really like

1285
01:01:42,840 --> 01:01:45,280
Speaker 2: anyone out there, but I'm gonna go Majorca plus a

1286
01:01:45,280 --> 01:01:49,040
Speaker 2: half on the road against Sevilla. I think Sevilla is

1287
01:01:49,080 --> 01:01:52,000
Speaker 2: still really like really really bad, like out of the

1288
01:01:52,040 --> 01:01:55,360
Speaker 2: World Cup break. They're at a minus point one expected

1289
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:58,280
Speaker 2: gol differential. You know, it's not that bad, it's average,

1290
01:01:58,400 --> 01:02:01,280
Speaker 2: but that is and you know, obviously that includes their

1291
01:02:01,360 --> 01:02:05,800
Speaker 2: horrific performance against Barcelona over the weekend, but it's actually

1292
01:02:05,960 --> 01:02:09,280
Speaker 2: worse when you dive into it, because they won two

1293
01:02:09,320 --> 01:02:11,800
Speaker 2: matches over LJA and Cadiz, who are the two worst

1294
01:02:11,840 --> 01:02:15,400
Speaker 2: teams in La Liga. They created a combined in those

1295
01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:17,840
Speaker 2: two matches four point nine expected goals and another at

1296
01:02:17,920 --> 01:02:20,120
Speaker 2: point five, so if you take away those two matches

1297
01:02:20,560 --> 01:02:24,080
Speaker 2: since the World Cup break against Celta, Ego, Guitafe, Girona

1298
01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:27,360
Speaker 2: and Barcelona, they have a minus four point five expected

1299
01:02:27,400 --> 01:02:29,800
Speaker 2: goal differential. They are just as bad as they were

1300
01:02:29,880 --> 01:02:33,120
Speaker 2: before the World Cup break. They're one of these teams

1301
01:02:33,120 --> 01:02:35,680
Speaker 2: that really struggles to convert final third possession into any

1302
01:02:35,680 --> 01:02:38,960
Speaker 2: type of high quality chance in Majorca. I've said it before,

1303
01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:43,000
Speaker 2: they have one of the best low blocks, not only

1304
01:02:43,320 --> 01:02:47,400
Speaker 2: in Spain but across Europe. They are the best team

1305
01:02:47,880 --> 01:02:51,240
Speaker 2: in final third to box entry conversion rate in Europe's

1306
01:02:51,240 --> 01:02:54,080
Speaker 2: top five leagues nineteen percent of the time when opponents

1307
01:02:54,080 --> 01:02:55,919
Speaker 2: and another final third they're getting into the box. Now

1308
01:02:56,240 --> 01:02:58,560
Speaker 2: they don't press. They allowed a ton of final third entries,

1309
01:02:58,560 --> 01:03:01,000
Speaker 2: but still then their face a team like Sevilla who

1310
01:03:01,040 --> 01:03:03,720
Speaker 2: just can't turn any further possession into a high quality

1311
01:03:03,760 --> 01:03:06,400
Speaker 2: chance or get inside the box. And the fact that

1312
01:03:06,440 --> 01:03:09,000
Speaker 2: my orc is allowing also the second are the longest

1313
01:03:09,040 --> 01:03:12,480
Speaker 2: average shot distance in La Liga. It's really concerning of

1314
01:03:12,560 --> 01:03:14,800
Speaker 2: how Sevia is actually gonna be able to break them down.

1315
01:03:15,080 --> 01:03:16,600
Speaker 2: And the last time these two teams met it was

1316
01:03:16,600 --> 01:03:18,800
Speaker 2: one of the dumbest matches I've ever seen in my

1317
01:03:18,960 --> 01:03:21,800
Speaker 2: entire life. I mean, Sevilla scored on their first shot

1318
01:03:21,880 --> 01:03:24,120
Speaker 2: of the match from thirty six yards away from the goal,

1319
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:26,360
Speaker 2: only took four shots in the match and created point

1320
01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:29,440
Speaker 2: two won the match one nothing. Uh So I like

1321
01:03:29,480 --> 01:03:31,360
Speaker 2: Myraka plus a half at minus one oh five. I

1322
01:03:31,400 --> 01:03:34,000
Speaker 2: don't think there's much difference between these two teams. I mean,

1323
01:03:34,040 --> 01:03:35,600
Speaker 2: even if you look at the expected gold differential, my

1324
01:03:35,680 --> 01:03:37,720
Speaker 2: Orca is at minus five point two on the season,

1325
01:03:38,120 --> 01:03:41,000
Speaker 2: Sabba's third worst in La League at minus ten point three.

1326
01:03:41,120 --> 01:03:43,439
Speaker 2: So even if you factor in home field advantage, there's

1327
01:03:43,480 --> 01:03:45,240
Speaker 2: no way that you can get to Sevilla minus went

1328
01:03:45,280 --> 01:03:47,840
Speaker 2: twenty five at home. So the market just keeps thinking

1329
01:03:47,840 --> 01:03:49,840
Speaker 2: this team's gonna come back, and I still think they suck.

1330
01:03:49,920 --> 01:03:52,120
Speaker 2: So Myraka plus a half at minus one o five

1331
01:03:52,120 --> 01:03:52,440
Speaker 2: for me.

1332
01:03:53,000 --> 01:03:55,800
Speaker 1: Uh lego, and then we'll get to underdogs and best

1333
01:03:55,800 --> 01:03:58,960
Speaker 1: bets at Anthony. You got one for us at France.

1334
01:04:00,040 --> 01:04:00,240
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1335
01:04:00,240 --> 01:04:03,640
Speaker 3: I bet Sevia team total over a half on Sunday.

1336
01:04:03,640 --> 01:04:05,600
Speaker 3: If you did, I'm sorry. That was the worst betal.

1337
01:04:05,760 --> 01:04:07,880
Speaker 3: That was the worst betal all year. When I said

1338
01:04:07,920 --> 01:04:11,200
Speaker 3: over a half, I meant shots, not goals, and they

1339
01:04:11,200 --> 01:04:13,640
Speaker 3: finished with one shot. Maybe maybe they might have got

1340
01:04:13,680 --> 01:04:15,439
Speaker 3: a second in stoppage time, but it was one for

1341
01:04:15,960 --> 01:04:20,240
Speaker 3: the entire match. Uh. And I like Monaco. I had

1342
01:04:20,240 --> 01:04:22,400
Speaker 3: this spot circled weeks ago. If you follow me the

1343
01:04:22,480 --> 01:04:25,880
Speaker 3: app we got. We got good numbers there plus a

1344
01:04:25,920 --> 01:04:28,160
Speaker 3: half and plus two forty five money line. I will

1345
01:04:28,200 --> 01:04:30,840
Speaker 3: still bet at it plus two hundred. Just play it smaller,

1346
01:04:30,840 --> 01:04:33,400
Speaker 3: maybe half a unit, because it has come down a lot.

1347
01:04:33,840 --> 01:04:36,760
Speaker 3: This PSD team just got waxed in the midweek at Marseille.

1348
01:04:37,360 --> 01:04:41,000
Speaker 3: They had a very uninspiring performance against Toulouse, even though

1349
01:04:41,000 --> 01:04:45,400
Speaker 3: they won. Like this PST team is just not very

1350
01:04:45,400 --> 01:04:50,000
Speaker 3: good right now without killing and Bappe especially, so we're

1351
01:04:50,040 --> 01:04:54,080
Speaker 3: going to keep fading U And I've I like Monico

1352
01:04:54,120 --> 01:04:56,280
Speaker 3: at home they always played them tough, like their attack

1353
01:04:56,360 --> 01:04:57,920
Speaker 3: is cooking with gas right now, and below has been

1354
01:04:57,920 --> 01:04:59,880
Speaker 3: in great form, Like this is a good team at

1355
01:05:00,080 --> 01:05:02,480
Speaker 3: home as an underdog in a home run spot with

1356
01:05:02,520 --> 01:05:05,960
Speaker 3: PSG looming with bar Byron on Tuesday, so you know,

1357
01:05:06,000 --> 01:05:09,080
Speaker 3: the lead in league is fine. They're gonna have one

1358
01:05:09,080 --> 01:05:11,280
Speaker 3: eye on Tuesday. Naymars just coming back from injury too,

1359
01:05:11,480 --> 01:05:15,000
Speaker 3: so could see him, you know, have his minutes restricted

1360
01:05:15,040 --> 01:05:16,360
Speaker 3: a little bit, like I wouldn't be shocked to be

1361
01:05:16,360 --> 01:05:18,760
Speaker 3: played like a half as opposed to going all out

1362
01:05:18,840 --> 01:05:23,520
Speaker 3: with with Byron coming up nice seeing uh tennis tennis

1363
01:05:23,600 --> 01:05:27,080
Speaker 3: legend ben wa Pere cheering on Marseille.

1364
01:05:27,160 --> 01:05:28,840
Speaker 4: Uh BJ what do you have?

1365
01:05:31,160 --> 01:05:35,000
Speaker 2: It's funny that pair and Marseille are connected. That's hilarious.

1366
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:39,160
Speaker 2: Reems in Troy over two and a half goals at

1367
01:05:39,240 --> 01:05:43,360
Speaker 2: minus one thirty. I mean reems. I mean they're they're

1368
01:05:43,440 --> 01:05:46,760
Speaker 2: kind of good, especially offensively. And if you know what's

1369
01:05:46,760 --> 01:05:50,160
Speaker 2: funny is they they've actually underperformed offensively When I was

1370
01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:52,200
Speaker 2: looking through the numbers, twenty six goals off a thirty

1371
01:05:52,280 --> 01:05:56,080
Speaker 2: four point eight expected one point six expected goals per

1372
01:05:56,200 --> 01:05:58,440
Speaker 2: ninety minutes. They are going up against one of the

1373
01:05:58,480 --> 01:06:01,160
Speaker 2: worst defenses in France. Troy is following one point eighty

1374
01:06:01,160 --> 01:06:03,080
Speaker 2: five expecta goles for ninety minutes. Out of the World

1375
01:06:03,080 --> 01:06:06,200
Speaker 2: Cup break. They've allowed fourteen point two expected goals in

1376
01:06:06,200 --> 01:06:08,400
Speaker 2: their last seven matches. The last time these two teams

1377
01:06:08,400 --> 01:06:10,760
Speaker 2: faced off, it was a chaotic two to two draw

1378
01:06:10,840 --> 01:06:13,600
Speaker 2: that featured four big scoring chants around three expected goals

1379
01:06:13,640 --> 01:06:16,760
Speaker 2: to create between the two sides. So I think we're

1380
01:06:16,800 --> 01:06:19,560
Speaker 2: going to see something very similar to that. I actually

1381
01:06:19,600 --> 01:06:21,960
Speaker 2: project three point zero or three goals for this one,

1382
01:06:22,040 --> 01:06:24,400
Speaker 2: so over two and a half goals at minus one

1383
01:06:24,480 --> 01:06:26,680
Speaker 2: thirty between Reems and CHOI for me.

1384
01:06:27,440 --> 01:06:30,160
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to our favorite underdogs.

1385
01:06:30,440 --> 01:06:32,720
Speaker 1: Last week we had a whopper of a parlay get

1386
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:36,160
Speaker 1: started with a plus seven to fifty hundred dug Everdon

1387
01:06:36,720 --> 01:06:37,920
Speaker 1: and then two draws.

1388
01:06:37,600 --> 01:06:38,280
Speaker 4: So we're pretty close.

1389
01:06:38,320 --> 01:06:40,720
Speaker 1: We're getting closer to our second it might be this

1390
01:06:40,760 --> 01:06:42,600
Speaker 1: week and we got another big one. It's going to

1391
01:06:42,640 --> 01:06:45,160
Speaker 1: come out at one hundred and fifty to one, Anthony.

1392
01:06:45,200 --> 01:06:47,080
Speaker 1: You can go first by.

1393
01:06:47,080 --> 01:06:49,880
Speaker 3: Just about every metric you can possibly imagine if Fiorentina

1394
01:06:50,000 --> 01:06:54,360
Speaker 3: is a better team than Juventus this season, Juventus did

1395
01:06:54,400 --> 01:06:57,320
Speaker 3: have some pixie dust goals against Salernitana on the road

1396
01:06:57,320 --> 01:06:59,560
Speaker 3: in the midwek to win that match, like a weird

1397
01:06:59,560 --> 01:07:01,800
Speaker 3: deflection that felt a costage right in front of the goal,

1398
01:07:01,880 --> 01:07:05,680
Speaker 3: a penalty where it was just stupid defending nothing Juventus did.

1399
01:07:06,440 --> 01:07:08,680
Speaker 3: I still think that they stink. I mean, Kiez upgrades them,

1400
01:07:08,680 --> 01:07:10,120
Speaker 3: but like they do have a bunch of injuries going

1401
01:07:10,120 --> 01:07:12,320
Speaker 3: on here, Like it's the ghost of Anhaldi Maria that's

1402
01:07:12,320 --> 01:07:15,240
Speaker 3: carrying this attack, right now and Valovich does own me.

1403
01:07:15,760 --> 01:07:19,240
Speaker 3: But I like Fiorentina At plus three thirty. It was

1404
01:07:19,320 --> 01:07:21,240
Speaker 3: gonna be Monaco, but they've gotten steam so far now

1405
01:07:21,240 --> 01:07:24,440
Speaker 3: that I'm gonna use Fiorentina for the parlay. I may

1406
01:07:24,520 --> 01:07:25,840
Speaker 3: just take the money line here and not play the

1407
01:07:25,840 --> 01:07:28,320
Speaker 3: plus a half, but I do like Fiorentina.

1408
01:07:28,960 --> 01:07:32,520
Speaker 1: Bradford plus six hundred. We beat Arsenal last week. We're

1409
01:07:32,520 --> 01:07:33,480
Speaker 1: gonna try to do it again.

1410
01:07:34,720 --> 01:07:35,920
Speaker 3: Hell yeah.

1411
01:07:36,080 --> 01:07:39,760
Speaker 2: I hate when you guys put in Hoover's facing Arsenal

1412
01:07:39,760 --> 01:07:41,880
Speaker 2: into this. It makes it no fun for me. Well,

1413
01:07:42,640 --> 01:07:46,240
Speaker 2: the Bees bj they are rolling since the World Cup break.

1414
01:07:46,240 --> 01:07:48,080
Speaker 2: They went rolling into the World Cup break with that

1415
01:07:48,120 --> 01:07:52,040
Speaker 2: win over City. There are four wins two draws since then.

1416
01:07:52,320 --> 01:07:54,880
Speaker 2: The got a plus four point.

1417
01:07:54,600 --> 01:07:57,919
Speaker 1: Three expected goal differential in that span only five point

1418
01:07:58,000 --> 01:08:02,360
Speaker 1: four allowed expectacles allowed, only three goals allowed. Plus a

1419
01:08:02,640 --> 01:08:07,120
Speaker 1: really tricky spot coming for Arsenal. They did just lose

1420
01:08:07,480 --> 01:08:09,680
Speaker 1: everdent at Goodison Park last weekend, and now they got

1421
01:08:10,120 --> 01:08:13,800
Speaker 1: Manchester City in what will be basically a title eliminator

1422
01:08:13,840 --> 01:08:18,000
Speaker 1: for just for City coming on Wednesday, not the time

1423
01:08:18,040 --> 01:08:20,320
Speaker 1: you want to face a team like Brentford. They've taken

1424
01:08:20,360 --> 01:08:22,479
Speaker 1: advantage of these spots so many times over the past

1425
01:08:22,479 --> 01:08:25,160
Speaker 1: two years. They're gonna do it again. Six to one

1426
01:08:25,680 --> 01:08:26,520
Speaker 1: on the Bees.

1427
01:08:26,320 --> 01:08:30,280
Speaker 2: Baby, yeah, I'll go. I already mentioned it Myorca four

1428
01:08:30,320 --> 01:08:32,960
Speaker 2: to one on the road against Sevilla. This line just

1429
01:08:32,960 --> 01:08:35,280
Speaker 2: makes no sense to me. These Myoca has been a

1430
01:08:35,320 --> 01:08:38,120
Speaker 2: better team by every underlying metric than Savilla this season.

1431
01:08:38,479 --> 01:08:40,640
Speaker 2: The market just keeps thinking that this team is going

1432
01:08:40,720 --> 01:08:42,519
Speaker 2: to come back. They put in one of the worst

1433
01:08:42,560 --> 01:08:45,360
Speaker 2: performances they've had all season long against Barcelona. I understand

1434
01:08:45,360 --> 01:08:48,240
Speaker 2: my ork is not Barcelona, but they were the better

1435
01:08:48,240 --> 01:08:50,599
Speaker 2: team against them the last two times. The last time

1436
01:08:50,640 --> 01:08:53,600
Speaker 2: these two teams faced off, Myorca is one of the

1437
01:08:53,720 --> 01:08:56,400
Speaker 2: most elite teams at defending their penalty area in sevia

1438
01:08:56,439 --> 01:08:58,519
Speaker 2: cancer and final third possession into any type of chance

1439
01:08:58,520 --> 01:09:01,320
Speaker 2: inside the box. So and I get it. My Orca's

1440
01:09:01,320 --> 01:09:04,120
Speaker 2: offense isn't that great, but Tavia's defense is really bad too,

1441
01:09:04,160 --> 01:09:07,599
Speaker 2: like their eighteenth and expected goals allowed. So this is

1442
01:09:07,960 --> 01:09:11,160
Speaker 2: a way over priced sa Via team. So I love

1443
01:09:11,200 --> 01:09:12,080
Speaker 2: my Orca four to one.

1444
01:09:13,040 --> 01:09:16,280
Speaker 1: Like I said, uh, you wrap those three teams together

1445
01:09:16,840 --> 01:09:19,439
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty to one. Feel pretty good about that.

1446
01:09:19,760 --> 01:09:21,639
Speaker 1: Puts a little money in your pocket.

1447
01:09:21,720 --> 01:09:25,439
Speaker 2: Is Uarantina Uventus on Sunday. I believe it's right, okay,

1448
01:09:25,479 --> 01:09:29,040
Speaker 2: so we put a little money is early Saturday morning

1449
01:09:29,040 --> 01:09:31,519
Speaker 2: to kick things off, and then obviously Arcel and Brentford

1450
01:09:31,520 --> 01:09:33,760
Speaker 2: are playing at ten am Eastern time, so maybe we'll

1451
01:09:33,760 --> 01:09:36,639
Speaker 2: go and do a nice uh nice super Bowl Sunday

1452
01:09:36,920 --> 01:09:39,920
Speaker 2: with potential lung shots.

1453
01:09:40,080 --> 01:09:43,320
Speaker 3: There you got Sunday at noon Orantina.

1454
01:09:43,880 --> 01:09:47,960
Speaker 1: Our favorite bets for this Premier League match week BJ

1455
01:09:48,240 --> 01:09:49,280
Speaker 1: you can go first.

1456
01:09:49,320 --> 01:09:52,800
Speaker 2: Everton over half a goal or Everton to score and

1457
01:09:52,920 --> 01:09:56,640
Speaker 2: minus one thirty five. This Liverpool defense has shown no

1458
01:09:56,760 --> 01:09:59,000
Speaker 2: signs of been proving. They've been one of the worst

1459
01:09:59,040 --> 01:10:02,800
Speaker 2: defenses in the Premie all season long. They have not

1460
01:10:02,880 --> 01:10:05,920
Speaker 2: held an opponent under one expected goal since August thirty

1461
01:10:05,960 --> 01:10:09,080
Speaker 2: first against Newcastle. Even the last time these two teams met,

1462
01:10:09,160 --> 01:10:11,559
Speaker 2: Everton created over one and a half expected goal. Everton

1463
01:10:11,640 --> 01:10:15,040
Speaker 2: just put up one point seven expected goals against what

1464
01:10:15,160 --> 01:10:17,360
Speaker 2: I believe is the best defense in the Premier League.

1465
01:10:17,640 --> 01:10:19,479
Speaker 2: And the biggest thing here is now that Everton has

1466
01:10:19,520 --> 01:10:22,439
Speaker 2: Sean Ditsch. Even before him, they were a top top

1467
01:10:22,439 --> 01:10:24,160
Speaker 2: five team in terms of actually per set piece, so

1468
01:10:24,160 --> 01:10:27,479
Speaker 2: they're only going to get better. Liverpool is literally the

1469
01:10:27,600 --> 01:10:30,040
Speaker 2: worst set piece defense in the Premier League. They're still

1470
01:10:30,080 --> 01:10:33,200
Speaker 2: without Kanate, They're still without Virgil van Dijk, So what's

1471
01:10:33,200 --> 01:10:35,880
Speaker 2: going to improve here for Liverpool. So even you know

1472
01:10:35,880 --> 01:10:37,960
Speaker 2: Dominic Calvert Lewin is questionable to play in this match,

1473
01:10:38,000 --> 01:10:39,840
Speaker 2: but Everton still has a lot of great attackers that

1474
01:10:39,880 --> 01:10:42,960
Speaker 2: can make up for his loss. I do project Everton

1475
01:10:43,280 --> 01:10:45,840
Speaker 2: at one point zero three goals, so over half a

1476
01:10:45,840 --> 01:10:47,639
Speaker 2: goal I mightus won thirty five is a good enough

1477
01:10:47,680 --> 01:10:50,360
Speaker 2: price for me to see the Toffees put the ball

1478
01:10:50,600 --> 01:10:51,719
Speaker 2: in the back of the net.

1479
01:10:52,080 --> 01:10:57,439
Speaker 1: Hopefully multiple times. Hopefully maybe six or seven. My favorite bet,

1480
01:10:57,439 --> 01:10:59,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Nottingham Force there plus three twenty

1481
01:11:00,600 --> 01:11:00,920
Speaker 1: on the.

1482
01:11:00,920 --> 01:11:04,720
Speaker 4: Road at Fulham. Fulham totally in the hunt.

1483
01:11:04,439 --> 01:11:08,639
Speaker 1: Here for a spot in Europe against the odds eighth

1484
01:11:08,640 --> 01:11:12,200
Speaker 1: place as we come into this Premier League match week

1485
01:11:12,720 --> 01:11:15,040
Speaker 1: donning of Forest, they're only six points above the drop zone.

1486
01:11:15,080 --> 01:11:17,919
Speaker 1: They're in thirteenth, But when you look at the underlying numbers,

1487
01:11:18,400 --> 01:11:20,679
Speaker 1: there's really not that much a difference here. In total,

1488
01:11:20,800 --> 01:11:23,840
Speaker 1: the expected goal differential for Fulham minus seven point seven

1489
01:11:24,200 --> 01:11:28,559
Speaker 1: minus seven point nine for Noddingham, Forest and this Fulham

1490
01:11:28,560 --> 01:11:32,720
Speaker 1: defense there, it's weird. They are dead last in terms

1491
01:11:32,760 --> 01:11:36,360
Speaker 1: of total expected goals allowed on the season and yet

1492
01:11:36,400 --> 01:11:40,120
Speaker 1: that's nearly thirty seven and yet they've only allowed thirty

1493
01:11:40,160 --> 01:11:44,600
Speaker 1: So some defensive regression coming. Perhaps most importantly that this

1494
01:11:44,720 --> 01:11:47,080
Speaker 1: nodding of Forest team has kind of just gotten better

1495
01:11:47,320 --> 01:11:49,639
Speaker 1: and grown into the season more and more as these

1496
01:11:49,680 --> 01:11:53,080
Speaker 1: new faces and there's more of them, including one goal,

1497
01:11:53,840 --> 01:11:56,200
Speaker 1: keep getting betted into the squad. So I think Forrest

1498
01:11:56,240 --> 01:11:58,920
Speaker 1: is going to continue trending in the right direction, and

1499
01:11:58,960 --> 01:12:02,240
Speaker 1: we might see Fulham trend in the wrong direction as

1500
01:12:02,240 --> 01:12:04,720
Speaker 1: we finished this season up. So I'll be on the

1501
01:12:04,720 --> 01:12:07,639
Speaker 1: tricky trees. Anthony take us home.

1502
01:12:08,960 --> 01:12:11,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you feel like you're having deja vous as

1503
01:12:11,439 --> 01:12:14,160
Speaker 3: you watch this match, it did just happen today. I

1504
01:12:14,280 --> 01:12:16,880
Speaker 3: like leads plus a half against Man United at home.

1505
01:12:16,920 --> 01:12:20,599
Speaker 3: Now they're going to flip venues and head to Ellen Road. Look,

1506
01:12:20,640 --> 01:12:23,120
Speaker 3: I think Man United had a major problem controlling the game,

1507
01:12:23,240 --> 01:12:27,240
Speaker 3: keeping it in their favor and having the possession and

1508
01:12:27,240 --> 01:12:30,120
Speaker 3: not losing it high and whatnot. Because Casimiro is out

1509
01:12:30,120 --> 01:12:32,200
Speaker 3: and I think it's a huge loss. Him getting the

1510
01:12:32,280 --> 01:12:35,400
Speaker 3: red card means he suspended for this match. Also and

1511
01:12:35,520 --> 01:12:38,920
Speaker 3: I really think that Leads are much better than the

1512
01:12:39,000 --> 01:12:41,599
Speaker 3: numbers say. And I said this under Jesse Marsh, and

1513
01:12:41,680 --> 01:12:43,680
Speaker 3: just because he got fired doesn't mean it changes my

1514
01:12:43,840 --> 01:12:47,120
Speaker 3: view of this still being his team until a new manager,

1515
01:12:47,240 --> 01:12:50,000
Speaker 3: actual manager comes in and imprints his own ideas. And

1516
01:12:50,040 --> 01:12:52,960
Speaker 3: we've saw the ideas in progress and in play. On

1517
01:12:53,040 --> 01:12:55,880
Speaker 3: the first goal for Leads winning the ball high within

1518
01:12:55,920 --> 01:12:57,759
Speaker 3: ten seconds, the ball was in the back of the net,

1519
01:12:57,960 --> 01:13:00,320
Speaker 3: and that's Jesse Marsh staple. This is still a top

1520
01:13:00,360 --> 01:13:02,800
Speaker 3: ten team in box entries, still a team that has

1521
01:13:03,080 --> 01:13:05,639
Speaker 3: somewhat improved in defending their penalty area with the addition

1522
01:13:05,680 --> 01:13:08,360
Speaker 3: of wilbur and United. I think on the road here

1523
01:13:08,600 --> 01:13:10,920
Speaker 3: is in a tough spot with Barcelona looming in the

1524
01:13:10,960 --> 01:13:14,040
Speaker 3: Champions League. They'll feel as though they were probably a

1525
01:13:14,040 --> 01:13:16,040
Speaker 3: little bit fortunate to come back from two down today,

1526
01:13:16,439 --> 01:13:18,680
Speaker 3: But it doesn't matter because on Sunday Leads are going

1527
01:13:18,720 --> 01:13:20,240
Speaker 3: to get at least another point and I would not

1528
01:13:20,280 --> 01:13:23,400
Speaker 3: be surprised if the Peacocks won the match. Do love

1529
01:13:23,439 --> 01:13:27,480
Speaker 3: what I'm seeing from the young attackers like Yotto, especially

1530
01:13:28,560 --> 01:13:29,120
Speaker 3: up the left wing.

1531
01:13:29,680 --> 01:13:32,040
Speaker 1: All Right, that does it for this episode of Wonder

1532
01:13:32,120 --> 01:13:35,080
Speaker 1: Girl presented to you by Bet three six'. Five we

1533
01:13:35,160 --> 01:13:38,840
Speaker 1: will be Back sunday. Night it feels a lot has

1534
01:13:38,840 --> 01:13:41,280
Speaker 1: happened since the last time we Spoke Champions, league including

1535
01:13:41,280 --> 01:13:44,639
Speaker 1: A World, cup but we'll be back Talking Champions league

1536
01:13:44,640 --> 01:13:47,639
Speaker 1: On sunday, night previewing the.

1537
01:13:47,600 --> 01:13:48,800
Speaker 4: Four matches over the.

1538
01:13:48,800 --> 01:13:52,360
Speaker 1: Midweek but until, Then for B J, cunningham For Anthony,

1539
01:13:52,400 --> 01:13:56,680
Speaker 1: dubundo for all our, Producers, Noah Matt, mitchell. Etc I'm

1540
01:13:56,680 --> 01:13:59,000
Speaker 1: Michael liebup pushing you best of luck with all your.

1541
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Speaker 3: Bets Action network reminds you please gamble. Responsibly if you

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