1 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 1: On this episode of NEWTS World. As election day nears, 2 00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:10,160 Speaker 1: I wanted to have someone on who's taking a unique 3 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: look at polling data in this election cycle. He's been 4 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:18,440 Speaker 1: studying the swing states and methodically going through county by 5 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:22,120 Speaker 1: county to understand how each state will perform. He's been 6 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:26,440 Speaker 1: looking at low propensity voters, independent voters, and his analyzed 7 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 1: early vote. He is one of the most knowledgeable pollsters 8 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:33,879 Speaker 1: on the upcoming election, and he approaches it from a 9 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:38,199 Speaker 1: very unique perspective. So I'm really pleased to welcome my guests, 10 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 1: pollster Seth Keshel. He is on Telegram and on sub sect. 11 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 1: His site is Captain Kay's Corner. Seth, welcome and thank 12 00:00:57,320 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 1: you for joining me on Newtsworld. 13 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 2: Well, thank you so much, miss Speaker. It's like we 14 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 2: were talking about before I jumped on. It's an honor 15 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 2: to get to collaborate with you, especially as we approach 16 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 2: a very important day. 17 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: Well, I have to ask you, how did your military 18 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 1: intelligence background help you as you thought about the election 19 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 1: polling business. 20 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 2: So I've always been a numbers guy. I'm a baseball 21 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:19,680 Speaker 2: guy at heart. God did not give me the ability 22 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 2: to be a great athlete, but he gave me the 23 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 2: mind and appreciate the numbers. And I was a baseball 24 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:27,559 Speaker 2: analyst in college at Old Miss and wound up joining 25 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:31,119 Speaker 2: Army RGC, following the family tradition in the military, wound 26 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:33,880 Speaker 2: up as an Army intelligence officer a tactical level. Never 27 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:35,960 Speaker 2: went beyond the rank of captain, just served six years. 28 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:39,959 Speaker 2: And my job requirements were to understand lots of data points, 29 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 2: lots of events over a massive expanse. So we're talking 30 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 2: about an area of the size of Georgia and western Afghanistan, 31 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 2: and to be able to boil that down into digestible 32 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 2: pieces of information to give to my commander to inform 33 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 2: his decision making. So we have fifty different states. We 34 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 2: have Washington, d C. We have two split districts. We 35 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 2: have more than fifty separate elections that contribute five hundred 36 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 2: and thirty eight elector votes, and they all balance in 37 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:05,920 Speaker 2: different directions, and they have different variables and different trends racial, ethnic, 38 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 2: socioeconomic trends, and I'm able to balance and understand these. 39 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 2: I can spot inaccuracies in media reporting and also narratives. 40 00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 2: And in twenty sixteen, when Ohio was given to Trump 41 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 2: by the media two months out, and it was going 42 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 2: to be five plus. I knew right away there was 43 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:23,520 Speaker 2: no way that that matched up with a Clinton plus 44 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 2: ten or twelve point popular vote map. Ohio had only 45 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 2: missed the presidential winner twice since eighteen ninety six. So 46 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,480 Speaker 2: I went back, deconstructed the map, learned about voter registration 47 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 2: by party trend, and figured out pretty quickly that Trump 48 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 2: was on pace to grab Pennsylvania, Michigan, and I wound 49 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 2: up calling all fifty states right in twenty sixteen. And 50 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 2: one of the reasons we have issues with twenty twenty 51 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 2: based on the analysis is because it defied every single trend, indicator, bellweather, 52 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 2: and predictor known to political analysts since the eighteen hundreds. 53 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 1: How do you explain that, Well. 54 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 2: You know, it's about ballots. I did an event in 55 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 2: Los Angeles in January with Brad Parskale, who used to 56 00:02:57,680 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 2: work with the Trump campaign. First time I'd met the guy, 57 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:03,680 Speaker 2: and being exposed to so many different viewpoints allows you 58 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 2: to understand what other people are seeing out there. And 59 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 2: he referred to certain states as messaging states, like Florida, Texas. 60 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 2: Florida got anti communist message, You're going to pull Florida 61 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 2: easily these days Texas big energy message, freedom message. But 62 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 2: other states like Pennsylvania he referred to as ballot states 63 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 2: where the messaging no longer matters as much. Now Trump's 64 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 2: messaging plays up there with the working class message, but 65 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 2: collecting ballots is what has to happen. So getting in 66 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:31,360 Speaker 2: there and throw in a wrench in the screws of 67 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:34,239 Speaker 2: the mail in agenda is important. Getting the early vote 68 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 2: out is important. But that's where the twenty twenty election broke. 69 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 2: All the rules went around all the legislators, which have 70 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 2: the authority, the only authority to change election law. So 71 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 2: really you could make the case that most of the 72 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 2: twenty twenty election was not even conducted under a legal premise. 73 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 2: But those were what were responsible for generating this low 74 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 2: propensity turnout, ensuring that everybody's casting a vote, rather than 75 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 2: having the traditional political indicators of enthusiasm, which Trump had 76 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 2: an enthusiasm gap over Biden and probably an even bigger 77 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 2: one over Harris this year. 78 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: The two things one is that voter registration tells you 79 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:12,320 Speaker 1: a lot, and the other is there can be mechanisms 80 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 1: that overwhelm the registration. 81 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 2: Correct usually if it's consistent enough and strong enough, it's 82 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 2: very hard to buck against the voter registration trend. For 83 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 2: the data in Pennsylvania, I can find one county that 84 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 2: sometimes bucks, and that's Alleghany County. So if the trend 85 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 2: isn't significant, it's less than a point. In the rest 86 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:32,839 Speaker 2: of the electorate is made up of left leaning urban independence, 87 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 2: then yes, that may push your margins. But voter registration 88 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 2: by party is far more accurate than polling. And the 89 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 2: thing is, you can backdate this and go back as 90 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:43,600 Speaker 2: long as you have the data and find that the 91 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 2: trends correctly predict, especially the larger of the sample statewide registration, 92 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 2: especially it correctly predicts the trajectory of the next election. 93 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 2: And right now, every single meaningful state in the country 94 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 2: that registers voters by party is on a heavy Republican trend. 95 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 2: There's only one state in the entire country that registers 96 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 2: by party that is moving towards the Democrats. You know 97 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:04,359 Speaker 2: which one that one is? 98 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: Now, I was gonna say, I'm very curious. 99 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 2: Now it's Colorado. 100 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:12,040 Speaker 1: Well that's because of the Californians it is. 101 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 2: It's also Denver's dominance is two thirds of the vote 102 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:16,479 Speaker 2: right up there in Denver and the surrounding county, so 103 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 2: it's pretty much overwhelmed the entire countryside. 104 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:24,919 Speaker 1: What's happening in Denver. That's different than other states that 105 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:28,239 Speaker 1: have large cities but are migrating towards the Republican. 106 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 2: And Denver doesn't have a big working class dynamic a 107 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 2: place like Pittsburgh. Of course, you're talking about steel mills 108 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 2: and refineries, and especially the surrounding areas Westmoreland, Washington Counties, 109 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:42,760 Speaker 2: Armstrong Counties. Denver is more of the glass and concrete 110 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 2: financial place where you have a lot of white liberals 111 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 2: that are going there. You have a different mindset. You 112 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 2: have the drug culture in Denver is a big thing 113 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:54,160 Speaker 2: that's going on there. You have all sorts of liberal movements, 114 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 2: feminism movements that drag the culture of the area to 115 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 2: the left. Of course, northwest of Denver you've got Boulder, 116 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:02,839 Speaker 2: which fences in. So even the surrounding countryside Larimer County 117 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 2: that Bush carried in two thousand and four, those have 118 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,279 Speaker 2: drifted as well. They're even eating into the margins in 119 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:10,719 Speaker 2: El Paso County, Douglas County south of Denver. So really 120 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 2: Colorado is unless the Hispanic vote really grows and surges 121 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:17,799 Speaker 2: to the right. Colorado is looking like a stronger Democrat 122 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,840 Speaker 2: version than even Minnesota is probably a consistent ten point 123 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:21,599 Speaker 2: Democrat state. 124 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, well, of course Minnesota, there's a pull out that 125 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: Trump's only three points behind. 126 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 2: I agree with it. Number one. It's interesting because I've 127 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 2: never believed that the vice presidential selection does a lot 128 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:34,400 Speaker 2: with moving the math on a state. So a lot 129 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:36,839 Speaker 2: of people thought Josh Shapiro would move the math on Pennsylvania. 130 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 2: I'm not so sure it would have. It may have 131 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:40,919 Speaker 2: created a narrative for what needs to be done for 132 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 2: Harris to win Pennsylvania, which looks impossible to me. But 133 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 2: with Minnesota, it's a very similar state in my analytics 134 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,919 Speaker 2: to Virginia. I ballpart both of those states at about 135 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 2: three to five points just as a default setting, which 136 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:54,599 Speaker 2: of course could be close enough with a turnout differential 137 00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 2: to swing that. But Hennepin and Ramsey Counties are dominant counties, 138 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 2: and they're huge margins, and they're full of white liberals 139 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 2: and not a lot of blue collar population, so they 140 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 2: are very tough lifts for Trump because the outlying areas 141 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:09,280 Speaker 2: are somewhat maxed out, especially in Minnesota. But this is 142 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 2: the reason we play the game. Same thing with college 143 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 2: football every Saturday, the reason they line up to play 144 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 2: the game. 145 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: I couldn't help when you were talking about baseball. I 146 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 1: mean the huge impact ten or fifteen years ago of 147 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 1: really good mathematical modeling and how it changed the Oakland A's, etc. 148 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: I think baseball maybe the most numbers oriented of all 149 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 1: the sports. 150 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 2: Definitely, Moneyball was something that I read it when it 151 00:07:33,360 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 2: first came out as a book in two thousand and two. 152 00:07:35,680 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 2: I thought it was fascinating and got a team out 153 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 2: there that's overshadowed by the San Francisco Giants. Of course, 154 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 2: now the Oakland A's are gone from Oakland. They're going 155 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 2: to Sacramento until they wind up in Las Vegas eventually. 156 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 2: But had to figure out how to get it done 157 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 2: on a shoe string budget, and they would draft first 158 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 2: rounders and give them a smaller signing bonus, and they 159 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:55,119 Speaker 2: relied heavily on scouting. Likewise, remember the twenty sixteen Trump 160 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 2: campaign relied heavily on different types of data analytics. They 161 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 2: would go through the crowds at the rallies and they 162 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 2: would peg about how many people used to vote for Obama. 163 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 2: There you go, the two time Obama voter in the 164 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 2: Midwest being the reason Donald Trump won the presidency in 165 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:09,960 Speaker 2: the first place. And when people can fully understand the 166 00:08:09,960 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 2: power of a coalition shift where their site starts voting 167 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 2: for you, it's not really a new thing. When you 168 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 2: were Speaker, Texas was still electing Democrats at the state level, 169 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 2: and some of the southern states were still putting Democrat 170 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 2: governors in there, and eventually that went all the way 171 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 2: down to the state houses. Texas still had a state 172 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 2: legislature that was Democrat run in the twenty first century. 173 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 1: Based on your registration analysis, I noticed that in Sean 174 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: Spicer's podcast about ten days ago you said New Hampshire 175 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: ought to be considered the eighth battleground state. And I 176 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 1: just saw Paul yesterday that showed Trump up by one, 177 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:43,840 Speaker 1: which I think shocked everybody. 178 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:46,440 Speaker 2: I sent that over to Sean, so I called back 179 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 2: in July when I was parceling out these states. In 180 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 2: my opinion, if you can't call thirty seven states red 181 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 2: or blue decisively, you have no business being involved in this. 182 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:57,680 Speaker 2: And I think that actually points to a bigger problem 183 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 2: with the polarization in the country. I think that you know, 184 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:02,960 Speaker 2: going back even into the sixties, sixties to the eighties, 185 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 2: there was only one state that never voted for the 186 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,320 Speaker 2: other party, and that was Arizona. Every other state voted 187 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 2: for both parties between the sixties and the eighties. So 188 00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 2: when you look at that equation, there's thirty seven states 189 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 2: that I predict will go rhet or blue by ten points, 190 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 2: ballpark or more. And then you have the seven decisive states, 191 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:21,200 Speaker 2: which I have from a Trump perspective. So like I 192 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 2: expect Trump to carry North Carolina, I would only consider 193 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 2: it decisive if she got it. But we have seven 194 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 2: decisive states that I call from the Trump perspective, and 195 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 2: then we have six that I call leaners, and two 196 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:34,079 Speaker 2: are Trump leaners less than ten North Carolina and Texas. 197 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 2: And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm 198 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 2: calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota. And we 199 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 2: can split that main state wide in Nebraska two but 200 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 2: four whole states, and now all four of them are 201 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 2: on Trump's radar, and they're looking at New Hampshire as 202 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 2: what I knew would be a decisive state. And the 203 00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 2: reason it's decisive to me is because if you pair 204 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 2: it with Nevada, it makes ten electoral votes that could 205 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:58,560 Speaker 2: make up for the loss of ten electoral votes somewhere else, 206 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 2: which is Wisconsin or Era, which is eleven. 207 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 1: You have in your analysis ten out of the ten 208 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 1: counties in New Hampshire have shifted more Republican. 209 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 2: It's gone from Democrat plus one point three percent advantage 210 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty, which by my records is the only 211 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:16,320 Speaker 2: time at a presidential election they've ever had a D 212 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:19,560 Speaker 2: plus registration advantage. New Hampshire, of course, is the most 213 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:22,560 Speaker 2: Republican of all New England states, even going back in time, 214 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 2: just like New Hampshire and Maine and Vermont were very 215 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 2: tough for Roosevelt even in the thirties, traditional Republican states. 216 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 2: Trump almost got it in twenty sixteen, but there was 217 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 2: a huge third party share of the vote there, and 218 00:10:34,160 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 2: some people still think that Clinton might have taken advantage 219 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 2: of those loopholes with the Massachusetts same day registration voters 220 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 2: without ID, but it was twenty six hundred votes between 221 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:44,559 Speaker 2: the two and then in twenty twenty. You've got to 222 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 2: swing to the left and registrations. I do have New 223 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 2: Hampshire moving left organically, in twenty twenty, even though I 224 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:52,319 Speaker 2: think it was boosted by the COVID election for sure. 225 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:54,959 Speaker 2: But now when you look at the stats, all ten 226 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 2: counties have a right word shift. The shift in Rockingham 227 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 2: County is huge. New Hampshire is also weird because the 228 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 2: two most urban counties are two of the more Republican 229 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 2: counties in the state, Hillsboro and Rockingham. And then we 230 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:07,960 Speaker 2: have the Republicans out to a lead with thirty nine 231 00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 2: thousand plus registration four point four percent. Trump is run 232 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 2: on average thirty three thousand left of the registrations, so 233 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:17,359 Speaker 2: the results in New Hampshire are always left of the registration. 234 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:20,480 Speaker 2: Independence dragged the result to the left. So Trump will 235 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 2: not win the state by thirty nine thousand votes, It'll 236 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 2: be left of that. And the average has been thirty 237 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 2: three thousand, so that would give Trump a slight window 238 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 2: to win the state of about five thousand votes in 239 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 2: the most optimal circumstances. But either way, I can't see 240 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:36,440 Speaker 2: either candidate winning the state by more than about fifteen 241 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 2: thousand votes. It would defy two plus decades worth of 242 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 2: predictive analytics. 243 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 1: I just saw on analysis that in North Carolina the 244 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 1: Democrats are down two hundred and thirty seven thousand votes 245 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: in early voting. Let me just start a breathtaking number. 246 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: The Republicans arep some, but the really big story is 247 00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 1: Democrats aren't turning. 248 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 2: Out North Carolina this time in twenty twenty. I believe 249 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 2: the Democrats had a lead of about three hundred thousand 250 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 2: ballots at this point in early voting a week before 251 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 2: the election in twenty twenty, and Trump still won the 252 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 2: state by seventy five thousand. Now, it also bucked the 253 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 2: registration trends, which I've had my eyes on North Carolina 254 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 2: for a long time. But mail in voting expanded, especially 255 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:19,080 Speaker 2: with no time to introduce it, it really blew the 256 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 2: numbers everywhere. So Western North Carolina was a big concern 257 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:24,959 Speaker 2: with the hurricanes on, it looks like they're going to 258 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 2: get a pretty solid turnout out there. I think Trump 259 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:30,600 Speaker 2: stands to gain about fifty to seventy thousand in margin 260 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:33,680 Speaker 2: in the twenty nine counties west of the disaster line, 261 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 2: and that would be enough to blot out the gains 262 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:39,200 Speaker 2: from either Charlotte or Raleigh that were seen in twenty twenty, 263 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 2: and neither of them appear to be on pace to 264 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 2: give the kind of Democrat margin that Biden got in 265 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 2: twenty twenty. So a week ago I saw a number 266 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 2: that there were sixty seven thousand fewer Black votes in 267 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 2: North Carolina than at the same point in twenty twenty, 268 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 2: and the organizers have taken note of that, and so 269 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 2: have Obviously the media is seen North Carolina. Now North 270 00:12:57,000 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 2: Carolina is only D plus one point four is D 271 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:02,559 Speaker 2: plus nine and a half when Trump won it eight 272 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 2: years ago. So the trend has been heavy. The working 273 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 2: class areas in the southeast are heavily Republican trending. Trump 274 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 2: should do very well with what does come out for 275 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 2: the black and Latino vote relative to a standard Republican 276 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 2: So I think North Carolina looks like at least four points. 277 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:35,840 Speaker 1: The state that probably had the most attention is Pennsylvania. 278 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 1: And you make the point that sixty three out of 279 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:42,560 Speaker 1: the sixty seven counties have actually grown more Republican since 280 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 1: twenty twenty. I mean, what's your sense of what's happening 281 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:46,559 Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania. 282 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 2: So the news is even better than that. They put 283 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:52,080 Speaker 2: out the last voter registration update on Monday, and Chester 284 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:55,120 Speaker 2: County moved to the right now too, So that's one 285 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 2: of the suburban counties. 286 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 1: So sixty four out of sixty seven. 287 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 2: Sixty four out of sixty seven, and the three that 288 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 2: are left shifted from twenty twenty. It's Cumberland County, it's 289 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:08,200 Speaker 2: a traditional Republican stronghold in south central PA. Then you 290 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:10,440 Speaker 2: have Delaware County right west of Philly, and then you 291 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:13,199 Speaker 2: have Montgomery County to the northwest of Philly. Those were 292 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:16,720 Speaker 2: traditional establishment type Republican counties in the eighties, nineties and 293 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 2: before that. Well, all of them in the last six 294 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 2: weeks have been hard Republicans shifted. Now since twenty twenty 295 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 2: they're left shifted. But arguably all sixty seven counties have 296 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 2: a Trump momentum, and most of Pennsylvania is working class. 297 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 2: I think it was James Carville that said Pennsylvania is 298 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 2: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle. And I 299 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 2: think in some of these white working class counties in 300 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:41,440 Speaker 2: western Pennsylvania you could be looking at Wyoming numbers for 301 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 2: Trump overhears. I think he'll probably exceed his white working 302 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 2: class margins this election. And obviously in twenty twenty it 303 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 2: was only eighty thousand plus ballots against an Irish Catholic 304 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 2: from Scranton, Pennsylvania that went by scrant and Joe and 305 00:14:55,560 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 2: with a mail in heavy election. Right now, the mail 306 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 2: in gap is about twenty percent sent better off for 307 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 2: the Republicans than it was at this point in twenty twenty. 308 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 2: The firewall they have is less than four hundred thousand 309 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 2: votes when it was one point one million four years ago. 310 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 1: I was born in Harrisburg and silver family in the 311 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 1: Harrisburg area. Is my sense is that the more radical 312 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 1: the Democrats have been, the more the state has shifted, 313 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 1: because it's actually a pretty culturally conservative state. 314 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 2: Absolutely. A big problem they have right now is Core Philadelphia. 315 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 2: Core Philadelphia has tens of thousands of fewer Democrat registrations 316 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 2: this time around than they did last time. I think 317 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 2: it's more than fifty thousand, and I think they're missing 318 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 2: about ninety three thousand male returns from where they were 319 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty in Philadelphia County. So the urban decline 320 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 2: in raw vote dumping is way down in the urban 321 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 2: metros of the battleground states. And you could probably extrapolate 322 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 2: this and see the same thing in Detroit, because it's 323 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 2: evident already in Milwaukee County in Wisconsin. 324 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 1: Don't you sense that she just can't get them to 325 00:15:58,040 --> 00:15:58,520 Speaker 1: turn out. 326 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:01,040 Speaker 2: There's a number of Democrats that are offended by the 327 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 2: fact that the party replaced the nominee without a democratic process. 328 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 2: That's another great irony is there is nothing democratic about 329 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 2: the Democrat Party. That is an issue there which they 330 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 2: completely usurped the nomination process. And you have to assume 331 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:17,120 Speaker 2: that inside the left circles, the progressive circles, there's a 332 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 2: resentment about that because with an open nomination you would 333 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 2: have at least expected to have a crack at getting 334 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 2: your candidate in. It would be like if the Republicans 335 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 2: replaced Trump without the voters having to have a say. 336 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 2: I think you would have a big time turnout drag, 337 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 2: especially in conservative areas or working class areas. Romney got 338 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 2: suburban turnout in twenty twelve, but he did not get 339 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 2: working class turnout, and that's why Obama lost three hundred 340 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 2: thousand votes in Pennsylvania and Michigan each and Romney didn't 341 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 2: close the gap other than what Obama lost. 342 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 1: I've been a little surprised at how much Ohio has 343 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 1: really moved to the Republicans, and I think Bernie Mario 344 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: may become the next Senator, just out of the underlying 345 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 1: current that every year gets more Republican. How do you 346 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: read Michigan and was so the. 347 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 2: Whole region is on a glide path like that. Pennsylvania 348 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 2: has Ohio twenty sixteen vibes where you could get a 349 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 2: much larger than surprising, hey five points big margin. You know, 350 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:12,520 Speaker 2: nobody thought of Iowa would go to Trump by nine 351 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 2: points in twenty sixteen. It went further to the right 352 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 2: for Trump than Texas did in twenty sixteen and in 353 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 2: twenty twenty. So Pennsylvania looks like it's becoming Ohio. Ohio 354 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 2: looks like it's becoming Indiana. Indiana appears to be becoming Kentucky. 355 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 2: In Kentucky's becoming West Virginia. So the way I read 356 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 2: Michigan is I read Pennsylvania first. Pennsylvania voter registration edge 357 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 2: is and it's just unbelievable. Trump ran six hundred and 358 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:39,480 Speaker 2: five thousand votes to the right of the Democrat registration 359 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 2: advantage in twenty twenty. So he lost the quasi election, 360 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 2: as Richard Barris calls it, to Biden by eighty thousand, 361 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 2: but he was still six oh five right of their 362 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 2: registration advantage. If Trump went six hundred and five thousand 363 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 2: right of the current registration advantage of two hundred and 364 00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 2: eighty one thousand, he would win Pennsylvania by more than 365 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,360 Speaker 2: three hundred thousand votes. And it just so happens that 366 00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:00,640 Speaker 2: Echelon Insights just put out a pull before we got 367 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 2: on here showing Trump plus six, which would be about 368 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 2: four hundred thousand plus in margin. 369 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 1: Cha also means we'll probably pick up the Senate seat. 370 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 2: Right. So I don't know if I'm bullish enough to 371 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:12,280 Speaker 2: go six points with the way Pennsylvania Soviet style ballot 372 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:14,960 Speaker 2: collection efforts can go, but to me, it looks like 373 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:18,960 Speaker 2: we probably have enough to get Pennsylvania. So Michigan for Trump. 374 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,720 Speaker 2: Michigan was thirty three thousand votes left of PA in 375 00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 2: twenty sixteen when it went to Trump, and then it 376 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 2: was seventy three thousand left in twenty twenty. There were issues, obviously, 377 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,400 Speaker 2: but the average is fifty three thousand in the Trump age. 378 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:34,160 Speaker 2: So if Pennsylvania is two hundred plus three hundred plus 379 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:38,640 Speaker 2: to Trump, Michigan sits fifty to seventy thousand left of Pennsylvania, 380 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,560 Speaker 2: it looks to me like the two are very closely correlated. 381 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:44,200 Speaker 2: They've moved in the same direction in every election since 382 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 2: nineteen forty eight, and Pennsylvania has voted right of Michigan 383 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 2: in every election since ninety two. So I think that 384 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,200 Speaker 2: you're likely to find Michigan in Trump's column if he 385 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,399 Speaker 2: gets a big enough number in PA. Wisconsin is not 386 00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:57,680 Speaker 2: entirely related. 387 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:03,440 Speaker 1: Isn't the Muslim rebellion against Harris also an additional insurance policy. 388 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,000 Speaker 2: They're two to three percent of the vote in Michigan, 389 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:10,480 Speaker 2: but that minority working class shift in southeastern Michigan is 390 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 2: a big deal, and the lower black turnout, the ones 391 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 2: that do turn out, vote bigger for Trump. That's big. 392 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,480 Speaker 2: You have more white working class voters in Michigan than 393 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:20,720 Speaker 2: you do in Pennsylvania. That's why sometimes people are wondering 394 00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 2: if Michigan is going to wind upright of Pennsylvania Wisconsin. 395 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:26,080 Speaker 2: On the other hand, it does correlate to the working 396 00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 2: class shift in general. I think that New York to 397 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 2: me is a canary in the coal mine, and I've 398 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 2: been writing about that for some time now. I don't 399 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:35,639 Speaker 2: think Trump is going to win New York, but I 400 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 2: have seen consistent polling where I'm not a big believer 401 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 2: in polls. But I look at the cross tabs, and 402 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:43,120 Speaker 2: I look at the tight shot groups, and New York 403 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:47,360 Speaker 2: from August October was consistently polling between twelve and fourteen points, 404 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 2: including from polsters that had the race at Biden plus 405 00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:53,600 Speaker 2: thirty in twenty twenty, and I saw inside ten a 406 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 2: couple times. And I've seen a few crazy polls lately 407 00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:59,439 Speaker 2: that are eighteen or so. But I have a feeling 408 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 2: that that numb is down in the low double digits, 409 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:04,000 Speaker 2: if not potentially inside ten, because the New York state 410 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:06,400 Speaker 2: wide races were inside ten points in twenty twenty, which 411 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 2: is a good sign. And when New York moves to 412 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:12,399 Speaker 2: the right since nineteen fifty two, that's happened nine times 413 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 2: in presidential elections. It's moved right nine times in every 414 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:20,679 Speaker 2: single time, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Jersey move right with it, 415 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 2: and almost every single time Wisconsin one exception in two 416 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:27,119 Speaker 2: thousand and four and two exceptions in Minnesota. So that 417 00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:30,400 Speaker 2: entire working class set of states moves off of New 418 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,399 Speaker 2: York and New York is absolutely set to go heavily 419 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 2: to the right. 420 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:37,639 Speaker 1: This year if Trump does anything close to as well 421 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 1: as illus recent polls even though he won't carry the state, 422 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: he probably will have a majority of the popular vote 423 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:44,120 Speaker 1: in the country. 424 00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:47,320 Speaker 2: It'll shift hundreds of thousands of popular votes. I mean, 425 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,199 Speaker 2: New York could shift a million in margin. If we 426 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 2: have a number like that where Trump finishes ten twelve 427 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,080 Speaker 2: points off the mark California, if he eats up ten 428 00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 2: percent of margin, you're looking at a shift of a 429 00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,920 Speaker 2: million and a half votes. So that's definitely there. Blowout Florida. 430 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 2: Texas looks like it's going to be a bloodbath this year, 431 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:04,880 Speaker 2: which is going to be a relief for a lot 432 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 2: of people who've been smelling the tighter margins in Texas 433 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 2: for ten years. 434 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 1: Do you think Texas ends up staying Republican. 435 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 2: I had been very pessimistic about Texas in the next 436 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 2: eight years, but I am very encouraged at least by 437 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,399 Speaker 2: this cycle because we have a major movement of the 438 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 2: Latino working class. It used to be that people thought 439 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 2: that demographics racially and ethnically were going to doom Texas, 440 00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 2: but Texas also has a lot of Latinos that have 441 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,639 Speaker 2: been around since Texas before was even a state, so 442 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,159 Speaker 2: they basically are voting like white Americans now. Anyway, but 443 00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,920 Speaker 2: Texas has had a big Latino shift. Eighty eight percent 444 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:40,920 Speaker 2: of the vote is urban and suburban, so that is 445 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,440 Speaker 2: a bit of a concern. So the suburban margins, it's 446 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 2: impossible to maintain forty plus point margins when you start 447 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,199 Speaker 2: getting that kind of population density. So the key to 448 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:53,400 Speaker 2: me is getting into Houston proper, Dallas proper in denting 449 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,440 Speaker 2: those Democrat margins. So if that can be done successfully 450 00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:58,439 Speaker 2: in a program to sustain it can happen, then you 451 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 2: can train Texas like Florida. There's no reason not to 452 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:04,399 Speaker 2: believe that. But getting control of these urban areas. Harris 453 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 2: County is extremely corrupt. It is pretty much the Chicago 454 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 2: of the South, if not Atlanta, but Harris County is 455 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,520 Speaker 2: very bad. Prior to this, what looks like Trump pushing 456 00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,400 Speaker 2: Texas back off to the right this year, I had 457 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 2: thought Texas could be vulnerable by twenty thirty two. 458 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 1: The scale of the Republican shift in Florida is unbelievable. 459 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:25,880 Speaker 2: It's going to be a nineteen eighty eight margin. It's 460 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 2: going to be the biggest margin since eighty eight. Florida 461 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,679 Speaker 2: has gone from D plus one and twenty twenty to 462 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,639 Speaker 2: R plus eight in twenty twenty four. And you know, 463 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,960 Speaker 2: most people thought the twenty twenty two midterms that Trump 464 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,919 Speaker 2: couldn't approach Rubio de Santus numbers, which were sixteen to 465 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,199 Speaker 2: nineteen points. Right now, turnout in Florida is almost R 466 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 2: plus twelve. The Republicans have a three quarter of a 467 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 2: million ballot advantage in Florida, and election day is still 468 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,359 Speaker 2: going to trend Republicans. So Trump could be looking at 469 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 2: numbers in Florida between twelve and fifteen points, and that 470 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 2: is going to be truly impressive. And Florida, Michigan, and 471 00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 2: Pennsylvania all moved together in every election since nineteen fifty 472 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,879 Speaker 2: two except for the safest and most secure election of 473 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:04,399 Speaker 2: all time, which was in twenty twenty. 474 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 1: I think there was a headline the other day in 475 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 1: the Miami paper that the Republicans were now out voting 476 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,639 Speaker 1: the Democrats and Miami Dade. 477 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:17,800 Speaker 2: Miami's R plus five today. Total turnout is R plus five. 478 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:19,439 Speaker 2: The county is D plus three and a half, but 479 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,720 Speaker 2: it's R plus five turnout as of today. So Trump 480 00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:25,120 Speaker 2: is going to flip Miami Dade County. So the Republican 481 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 2: nominee for president has carried Miami Dade County seven times, 482 00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,640 Speaker 2: so in nineteen twenty eight, fifty two, fifty six, seventy two, 483 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,400 Speaker 2: eighty eighty four, eighty eight, and all seven times won 484 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:37,160 Speaker 2: the presidency or retained the presidency. 485 00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 1: But it's just a huge shift. That's not going to 486 00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:41,080 Speaker 1: be that quest. 487 00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 2: It's not even close. Florida was a one point race 488 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:46,000 Speaker 2: between an ice cream cone and a kick in the 489 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,359 Speaker 2: neck for so many years. And you know, even in 490 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,679 Speaker 2: twenty twenty, Biden led in most of the polls in Florida. 491 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:52,680 Speaker 2: I didn't think Florida would go to Biden based on 492 00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 2: the registration shifts. But right now all sixty seven counties 493 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,680 Speaker 2: are more Republican than they were in twenty twenty. There's 494 00:23:58,720 --> 00:24:00,880 Speaker 2: been a voter roll perge. There's also been a Pursi 495 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 2: in New Hampshire, and a purge in Nevada, and a 496 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 2: Persie in Philadelphia County and a Persian in Maricopa County. 497 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,120 Speaker 2: It's funny to me how voter role purges always only 498 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,440 Speaker 2: hurt one party. 499 00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 1: YEP, which explains why they hated. 500 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 2: One hundred percent. Michigan is the most corrupt of all 501 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,480 Speaker 2: the battleground states. This here eighty three and a half 502 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:22,360 Speaker 2: percent of Michigan's population total population is registered to vote. 503 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,119 Speaker 2: Only seventy seven percent of any population is over the 504 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,240 Speaker 2: age of eighteen, So there's at least six hundred thousand 505 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 2: people that are on Michigan's voter rolls that don't belong there. 506 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 2: Just based on simple age splits. 507 00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 1: Does that lead you believe that it's possible that some 508 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 1: of the votes will be cash this year will not 509 00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 1: be actually people who are living. 510 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 2: Absolutely, it's not just possible, it's one hundred percent likely. 511 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 2: Now the extent of how much that will go on 512 00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:50,080 Speaker 2: If Trump pulls Pennsylvania on an early night, pulls Georgia pools, 513 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:55,439 Speaker 2: North Carolina, pools, Pensylvania, that's two seventy right there, without Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada. 514 00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:57,959 Speaker 2: So I don't think that Michigan will be riddled with 515 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:01,200 Speaker 2: cheating if Trump puts an early nightcap on things. I 516 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 2: don't think it's worth getting caught. I don't think it's 517 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:05,120 Speaker 2: worth dealing with the other fall out of that, because 518 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:06,960 Speaker 2: Michigan to me looks like a three to four point 519 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:07,920 Speaker 2: Trump state right now. 520 00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 1: You have made a comment at which I'm intrigued by 521 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:16,119 Speaker 1: the UC daval County, which is Jacksonville, as sort of 522 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:19,720 Speaker 1: a model for Georgia. What's your reasoning. 523 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 2: When I was doing my forecasting for Georgia, I prefer 524 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,360 Speaker 2: states that register voters by party, because then I get 525 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:26,280 Speaker 2: down at the county levels and I produce a trend 526 00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,719 Speaker 2: analysis which when you look at the margin of votes 527 00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 2: one by, ultimately we're talking about number of votes one by. 528 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,359 Speaker 2: Each county has a certain amount of votes, just like 529 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:36,919 Speaker 2: each cloud has a certain amount of rain, and I 530 00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 2: prefer to get granular like that. Now, some states like 531 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 2: Georgia or Texas or Wisconsin don't register voters by party, 532 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,959 Speaker 2: so I have to infer if I can. And for Wisconsin, 533 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:51,160 Speaker 2: a great comp is Iowa. They move together and they've 534 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,120 Speaker 2: never been more than nine point eight points apart since 535 00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 2: nineteen sixty. But states like Georgia. You know, I thought 536 00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,800 Speaker 2: logically that North Carolina would potentially be the for Georgia, 537 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,960 Speaker 2: but it's not. In fact, North Carolina voted to the 538 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,360 Speaker 2: right of Georgia last time for the first time since 539 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:08,160 Speaker 2: nineteen eighty eight, so now they're moving in opposite directions. 540 00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:12,240 Speaker 2: But Florida, not the state, but Duval County, the home 541 00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:14,920 Speaker 2: of Jacksonville, I started running the numbers on that. First off, 542 00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:19,919 Speaker 2: they have an almost identical racial and ethnic split. The black, white, 543 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 2: and Hispanic populations are almost identical to the number what 544 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,840 Speaker 2: the racial demographics are. Of course, you have an urban 545 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 2: area of Duval County, you have rural, you have suburbs, 546 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 2: and then you have of course the swing since two 547 00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:36,159 Speaker 2: thousand and four. So in four both of those Duval County, 548 00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 2: Florida and Georgia backed George Bush by a lot. I 549 00:26:39,320 --> 00:26:41,879 Speaker 2: think it was about sixteen points in each, and then 550 00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,879 Speaker 2: they swung to the left. In eight they both backed McCain, 551 00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:48,040 Speaker 2: but very narrowly. Duvall was less than two points, Georgia 552 00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,199 Speaker 2: was five points all right, And then we had in 553 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 2: twenty twelve both of them moved back to the right. 554 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,399 Speaker 2: So Duval was a little more comfortable for Romney and 555 00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:56,720 Speaker 2: Georgia was seven and a half almost eight points for 556 00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:59,400 Speaker 2: mitt Romney. And then in twenty sixteen they both swung 557 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,200 Speaker 2: left and hung with Trump, but just by a little 558 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,760 Speaker 2: bit in Duval and by five in Georgia. And in 559 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:06,880 Speaker 2: twenty twenty they swung to the left. Now I don't 560 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:08,440 Speaker 2: know how much of that was an organic swing and 561 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,600 Speaker 2: how much of it was the COVID election, but Duval 562 00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 2: flipped narrowly by three point eight percent towards Biden, and 563 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,600 Speaker 2: then Georgia flipped to Biden as well. So they've moved 564 00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:20,920 Speaker 2: to the same direction every election, and they moved by 565 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,280 Speaker 2: about the same number. And this year duvall is shifted 566 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,280 Speaker 2: from D plus five point nine to D plus one 567 00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 2: point nine and the current turnout in Duval is R 568 00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 2: plus three point six. So Duval appears to be heading 569 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:38,120 Speaker 2: for a Trump win by standard Republican margins. And if 570 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,200 Speaker 2: Georgia sticks with the swing that we've had since four eight, twelve, 571 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 2: sixteen twenty so for the last five elections, then Georgia 572 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:46,159 Speaker 2: is going to be running back right with Duval. And 573 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,439 Speaker 2: that pegged me for Georgia at a Trump margin of 574 00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:49,639 Speaker 2: five point six percent. 575 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,440 Speaker 1: My sense was around five percent. The people I trust 576 00:27:53,520 --> 00:28:12,080 Speaker 1: most watching it. The one other state I have to 577 00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:15,480 Speaker 1: ask about Gus has been intriguing. How much has shifted 578 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:19,560 Speaker 1: this year is Nevada. I mean, Clark County was just collapsing, 579 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:23,240 Speaker 1: which is Las Vegas. And as Democrats aren't kiring Clark 580 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,680 Speaker 1: County by a big margin, they have no hope. 581 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:28,000 Speaker 2: The thing that people have to understand about Nevada is 582 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,679 Speaker 2: seven out of eight votes come from two counties, Washo, 583 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,240 Speaker 2: which is Metro Areno, and then Clark, which of course 584 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,600 Speaker 2: is Metro Las Vegas seven out of eight votes. So 585 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 2: the one out of eight votes that come from the 586 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:42,480 Speaker 2: other fifteen county equivalents are massively Trump margins. And I 587 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:44,840 Speaker 2: ran them on a county trend based on registration, and 588 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 2: I think he's only got about another ten thousand of 589 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:49,920 Speaker 2: margin to squeeze out of those fifteen counties, So you 590 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:53,240 Speaker 2: have to make hay in Clark and Washoe counties. And 591 00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:55,840 Speaker 2: this could potentially, if it's extrapolated, it could speak to 592 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,200 Speaker 2: the strength of Trump in core urban areas, which of 593 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:01,600 Speaker 2: course Arizona being one of them, Maricopa County right next door. 594 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,320 Speaker 2: But right now, you have an R plus five turnout 595 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:07,600 Speaker 2: statewide in Nevada. The state itself is D plus one. 596 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,280 Speaker 2: Their registration advantage has been shrinking since Obama's second run, 597 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 2: and Trump has always run well to the right of 598 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,560 Speaker 2: the Democrat voter registration in Nevada. So I think that 599 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 2: Nevada is pretty much baked at this point. I don't 600 00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:22,480 Speaker 2: think that she has a chance to get back in 601 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:24,880 Speaker 2: the fight. I really don't even think that the ruling 602 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,240 Speaker 2: from last week is going to butt that. And here's 603 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 2: another important thing I'd like to talk about sports betting. 604 00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,680 Speaker 2: I'm not a big better, but I used to play 605 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,000 Speaker 2: with those daily lineup drafts in baseball to try to 606 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,000 Speaker 2: put the brain on baseball. And there's a pick called 607 00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,880 Speaker 2: the chalk pick. So I may not like Mike Trout 608 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:42,760 Speaker 2: in the lineup today because I have a hunch, but 609 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,680 Speaker 2: he always hits left handers, and here's his stats against lefties, 610 00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 2: so if you play him enough times, he's going to deliver. 611 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:52,560 Speaker 2: So the chalk pick is that Nevada has never voted 612 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:57,800 Speaker 2: Republican in Arizona voted Democrat in a presidential election. It's 613 00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,640 Speaker 2: never happened in Arizona has been a state since nineteen twelve. 614 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,280 Speaker 2: So if we think Nevada is going to Trump, then 615 00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:05,880 Speaker 2: one hundred and twelve years of history suggests that Arizona 616 00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:07,960 Speaker 2: is going to Trump too. So I like to make 617 00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,480 Speaker 2: parallel assumptions like that. And now there's the first time 618 00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,080 Speaker 2: for everything, but I don't think it's this year. 619 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,719 Speaker 1: Do you think the problems in a Maricopa which actually 620 00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:17,000 Speaker 1: we now have a majority don't we. 621 00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,960 Speaker 2: Maricopa County has one hundred and eighty one thousand Republican advantage. 622 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,440 Speaker 2: It was one hundred thousand four years ago. So you 623 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,400 Speaker 2: know a lot of these people thinking that party switchers 624 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:26,960 Speaker 2: are going to save them. I mean, you'd have to 625 00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,360 Speaker 2: believe that Arizona went from one hundred and thirty thousand 626 00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:31,520 Speaker 2: Republican lead to three hundred thousand just so they could 627 00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:34,440 Speaker 2: vote more Democrat in all fifteen counties. 628 00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,480 Speaker 1: We may pick up the Senate seat there based on 629 00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:38,520 Speaker 1: the most recent Poland. 630 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:40,920 Speaker 2: I saw Carrie Lake at an event a couple weeks 631 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,120 Speaker 2: ago and she said that she was only running two 632 00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:46,360 Speaker 2: points behind Trump. Now the media swings wildly. I saw 633 00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:48,840 Speaker 2: a Gyeago plus fifteen poll the other day, which is 634 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:52,280 Speaker 2: laughable to me. But you know, she's definitely running behind Trump. 635 00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:54,120 Speaker 2: We don't know how much. And I think that the 636 00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 2: discord there is probably the Latino working class. And the 637 00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,080 Speaker 2: reason I believe that is because I went through Reuben 638 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,920 Speaker 2: Gegos social media. I have not found one single foul 639 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,840 Speaker 2: word about Donald Trump all year. So it tells me 640 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 2: that they're sharing voters, just like you have Bob Casey 641 00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:10,719 Speaker 2: and Slotkin up in the industrial Midwest, not wanting to 642 00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 2: run a foul Trump supporters. 643 00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,960 Speaker 1: I thought one of the telling examples of how the 644 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,480 Speaker 1: momentum is built is the number of Democrats now who've 645 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 1: always liked Donald Trump. They've always found it easy to 646 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:22,160 Speaker 1: work with him. 647 00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, and the newspapers that won't come out and endorse does. 648 00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:28,400 Speaker 1: That actually have any impact? Historically they would have been 649 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 1: endorsing Harris. Now none of them are endorsing. 650 00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:33,920 Speaker 2: So the Washington Post is what I like to look at. 651 00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:36,239 Speaker 2: They did not endorse Ducaucus in eighty eight, but they 652 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,400 Speaker 2: endorsed Bill Clinton in ninety two, and then every Democrat 653 00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:45,240 Speaker 2: through twenty twenty. So every election ninety two, ninety six, two, four, eight, twelve, sixteen, 654 00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:48,680 Speaker 2: and twenty and they didn't endorse Harris. Well, they've endorsed 655 00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:52,040 Speaker 2: three losing Democrats since they began their endorsement street. They 656 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:54,960 Speaker 2: endorsed Gore who lost, Kerry who lost in Clinton who lost, 657 00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:57,920 Speaker 2: and Biden who won by forty twenty nine hundred and 658 00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,800 Speaker 2: eighteen ballots in three states. So why is that they're 659 00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,480 Speaker 2: not willing to endorse a Democrat this time who could lose? 660 00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 2: It's happened before, it suggests to me that maybe things 661 00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:08,360 Speaker 2: aren't as close as things have been led to believe. 662 00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,480 Speaker 1: Tell me from here about Captain Ky's Corner, because it's 663 00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,680 Speaker 1: on substact. It strikes me that the work you do 664 00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,880 Speaker 1: is really, really interesting. So what do people get if 665 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:21,400 Speaker 1: they go to Captain K's Corner. 666 00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:23,720 Speaker 2: Well, Captain Ky's Corner. I started it two years ago. 667 00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:25,440 Speaker 2: I was one of these names if you look me up. 668 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:27,160 Speaker 2: I don't have a lot of nice things written about 669 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,880 Speaker 2: me in the media. I don't necessarily consider myself an 670 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 2: election denier. I would call myself more of a fraud affirmer. 671 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,640 Speaker 2: And Bob Dole, of course, wrote in his own farewell 672 00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:37,960 Speaker 2: letter to America that he wondered if Heaven would be 673 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,680 Speaker 2: anything like Kansas, and if like in Chicago, he could vote, 674 00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,280 Speaker 2: if he could vote from Chicago. So I thought it 675 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,240 Speaker 2: was pretty funny, and it speaks to these distances of this. 676 00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:48,800 Speaker 2: Now I can language the complaints of the twenty twenty 677 00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:52,560 Speaker 2: election in a way that forces people who are skeptical 678 00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,080 Speaker 2: about those sort of things to engage and think. I 679 00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:58,120 Speaker 2: think that the twenty twenty election was part organic, some 680 00:32:58,160 --> 00:32:59,959 Speaker 2: of it was contrived by the media, some of them 681 00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,680 Speaker 2: because of the virus that was put out there and overhyped, 682 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:06,680 Speaker 2: and then other parts because the state legislatures allowed their 683 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,800 Speaker 2: duties to be usurped by executives and secretaries of state 684 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,400 Speaker 2: and created what Richard Barris I like to use the 685 00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:16,080 Speaker 2: term quasi elections. And we have states where the trends 686 00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:18,680 Speaker 2: are no longer discernible because the integrity of the election 687 00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:20,440 Speaker 2: has been completely blown up. And I think that a 688 00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:22,959 Speaker 2: lot of the numbers I'm seeing now not only confirmed 689 00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,600 Speaker 2: Trump momentum this year, but confirm my assumptions from the 690 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:28,920 Speaker 2: twenty twenty election. So a lot of my analyzes are 691 00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:31,680 Speaker 2: built on where I believe elections to be today. Most 692 00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,320 Speaker 2: of my stuff is elections focused. Sometimes I get into 693 00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,760 Speaker 2: the weeds about other things. But I believe that automatic 694 00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:40,640 Speaker 2: voter registration is the death wish of fair elections. Why 695 00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:42,760 Speaker 2: do I believe that because in twenty twenty there were 696 00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:46,560 Speaker 2: twenty states that had automatic voter registration. Biden won eighteen 697 00:33:46,640 --> 00:33:48,720 Speaker 2: of them and the count was two hundred and forty 698 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,720 Speaker 2: three electoral votes to nine. So once you blow up 699 00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:54,600 Speaker 2: the voter roles, then you have more entries to which 700 00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 2: you can assign mail in ballots, and the longer period 701 00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,200 Speaker 2: of early voting. You have for these mail in ballots 702 00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:01,400 Speaker 2: to be distributed, to be filled out and then harvested 703 00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,480 Speaker 2: and then turned back in because ultimately, if somebody knows 704 00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:07,280 Speaker 2: how to trend to analyze counties like I do, they 705 00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,480 Speaker 2: know what the possible extent of a GOP margin is 706 00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:12,960 Speaker 2: in all of these different counties, so they know if 707 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:15,640 Speaker 2: they get X amount of ballots that they will win. 708 00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:18,319 Speaker 2: So I think that election rigging has taken on a 709 00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,520 Speaker 2: new front with all the sophisticated data and technology and 710 00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:24,200 Speaker 2: then the loosening of the law. Rank choice voting is 711 00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,000 Speaker 2: another great example. When your state is trending hard read 712 00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:29,799 Speaker 2: it gives you one last election where your Democrat will 713 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,160 Speaker 2: win because usually when the Republicans flip the state, they 714 00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:33,960 Speaker 2: get about forty nine percent of the vote the first 715 00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:36,440 Speaker 2: time they flip it. Right, Well, that wouldn't be sufficient 716 00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:38,200 Speaker 2: to flip your state, so you get one more shot. 717 00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:40,799 Speaker 2: Captain K's Corner explores a lot of these. I go 718 00:34:40,880 --> 00:34:42,760 Speaker 2: into the data and I leave it open for people 719 00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:46,400 Speaker 2: to criticize, and I found counties that cannot confirm to 720 00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,279 Speaker 2: me that some of their precincts did not have more 721 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,720 Speaker 2: than one hundred percent turnout in the twenty twenty election, 722 00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,239 Speaker 2: just based on the way they organize their data. 723 00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:59,759 Speaker 1: The intensity of rejecting the dishonesty of the twenty twenty 724 00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:03,040 Speaker 1: eleve on the left. I've got annoyed with that. I 725 00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:05,600 Speaker 1: was the guy who's normally very rational, and it was 726 00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,640 Speaker 1: like I was violating his religious belief system. 727 00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,320 Speaker 2: Well, they're going to be election deniers, heif these trends 728 00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:14,360 Speaker 2: hold up the kind of questions I'll ask, so Arizona. 729 00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:18,600 Speaker 2: When I look at Arizona, Arizona's the most loyal presidential 730 00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:21,600 Speaker 2: state in modern political history. So in forty eight it 731 00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:24,880 Speaker 2: voted for Harry Truman, and so did Maricopa County. And 732 00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,080 Speaker 2: then in fifty two it flipped Eisenhower and so did 733 00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,520 Speaker 2: Maricopa County. And then from nineteen fifty two through twenty 734 00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,880 Speaker 2: sixteen it voted for every single Republican presidential candidate except 735 00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,640 Speaker 2: Bob Dolan ninety six. And the only reason Dole didn't 736 00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:38,560 Speaker 2: win it is because that was the year that Perot 737 00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:41,200 Speaker 2: did cost the Republican He almost got bushed in ninety two, 738 00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:44,400 Speaker 2: but he got Dolan ninety six, all right, Maricopa County. 739 00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:47,279 Speaker 2: Even though Dolt lost, Arizona still went to Dole. So 740 00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,239 Speaker 2: Maricopa was read from fifty two through twenty sixteen, and 741 00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:52,319 Speaker 2: Trump won it in twenty sixteen with fewer votes than 742 00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:55,280 Speaker 2: Mitt Romney did in twenty twelve. So in twenty twenty, 743 00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:59,040 Speaker 2: Trump's gains in Arizona statewide more than four hundred thousand 744 00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:02,040 Speaker 2: net new votes, the largest Republican gain in one election 745 00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:04,680 Speaker 2: cycle in the history of the most loyal Republican state, 746 00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:07,520 Speaker 2: and in Maricopa County, a gain of a quarter million, 747 00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:10,279 Speaker 2: the largest Republican gain in the history of the most 748 00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:13,680 Speaker 2: loyal urban Republican county in the United States, only to 749 00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:18,239 Speaker 2: be outdone by a Joe Biden gain that was three 750 00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:20,719 Speaker 2: times larger than any gain they ever had in Maricopa 751 00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,640 Speaker 2: County in calling the state with one percent of the 752 00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:26,520 Speaker 2: vote county. So, no, it doesn't make sense, and nobody 753 00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:28,680 Speaker 2: really wants to get to the bottom of how this happened. 754 00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:31,880 Speaker 2: But the answer is flooded voter roles, ballot harvesting in 755 00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,680 Speaker 2: an extensive period of time to contribute these ballots, and 756 00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:37,920 Speaker 2: an overarching media narrative. The thing that Trump is truly 757 00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,680 Speaker 2: commanding this year is the media narrative. I believe he 758 00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:42,600 Speaker 2: had the vote in twenty twenty, he did not have 759 00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:45,520 Speaker 2: the narrative. This time he appears to have them both. 760 00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:48,560 Speaker 1: That's all amazing. I hope we get a chance to 761 00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:51,560 Speaker 1: continue this friendship and to continue this kind of work. 762 00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:55,080 Speaker 1: You are remarkable. I want to thank you for joining me. 763 00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:57,880 Speaker 1: I want to remind our listeners that they can find 764 00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,040 Speaker 1: your reporting and all the latest elections news on substack 765 00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:05,600 Speaker 1: at Skeshel dot substack dot com. We'll have that on 766 00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,840 Speaker 1: our show page. But I really appreciate you taking this 767 00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:11,480 Speaker 1: time to talk with us. This has been very enlightening. 768 00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,680 Speaker 2: Likewise, I appreciate the opportunity to come on with your audience. 769 00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:16,160 Speaker 2: I've met a lot of new audiences here in the 770 00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:18,719 Speaker 2: last couple of weeks. I encourage everybody to keep your 771 00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,200 Speaker 2: eyes open, do not go to sleep on election night, 772 00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:22,879 Speaker 2: make sure you get out there and vote. Make sure 773 00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:24,840 Speaker 2: you take your friends that are like minded to vote. 774 00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:26,480 Speaker 2: This is an important time and we're going to have 775 00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:28,160 Speaker 2: to get out there and do all the fundamentals right. 776 00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:30,760 Speaker 2: So thank you so much for the invite, Miss Speaker. 777 00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,319 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, Seth Keshel. You can get 778 00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:38,600 Speaker 1: a link to a substack on our show page at 779 00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:41,640 Speaker 1: Newtsworld dot com. News World is produced by Gangwish three 780 00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:46,160 Speaker 1: sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guardnsei Sloan. Our 781 00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:50,040 Speaker 1: researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show was 782 00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,040 Speaker 1: created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team at 783 00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:56,000 Speaker 1: Ganwish three sixty. If you've been enjoying newts World, I 784 00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:58,680 Speaker 1: hope you'll go to Apple Podcasts and both rate us 785 00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:01,760 Speaker 1: with five stars and give us a review so others 786 00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,840 Speaker 1: can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of 787 00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:08,719 Speaker 1: Newtsworld can sign up for my three freeweekly columns at 788 00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:13,200 Speaker 1: gingristree sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. This 789 00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:14,080 Speaker 1: is Nutsworld.