WEBVTT - The Outlook for a COVID-19 Vaccine 0:00:00.720 --> 0:00:03.720 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:03.800 --> 0:00:06.320 Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.160 latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics, 0:00:11.240 --> 0:00:14.320 all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors, 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:16.439 and of course Carol that's part of a team of 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:20.439 twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:23.280 and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business 0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:26.239 Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:28.640 also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern 0:00:28.680 --> 0:00:31.560 on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:36.239 by searching Bloomberg Global News. This is a story that 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:39.680 we really started talking about last week with our next guest, 0:00:40.040 --> 0:00:43.480 and we've been talking about it with him for years now, 0:00:44.080 --> 0:00:47.960 and it's really ratcheted up even over the past forty 0:00:47.960 --> 0:00:51.959 eight hours. We're talking about Hong Kong and China. It's relationship, 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:55.760 its relationship that crisis to the US and the man 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:58.880 we're talking about. Andy Brown, editorial director for Bloomberg New Economy, 0:00:58.960 --> 0:01:03.200 joining us on the phone from New Hampshire. So Andy, 0:01:03.360 --> 0:01:06.560 help us understand what has happened of late, because it 0:01:06.720 --> 0:01:11.280 seems to have accelerated pretty quickly this week and with 0:01:11.800 --> 0:01:15.360 some moves that are going to be hard to walk back. 0:01:15.480 --> 0:01:17.120 What do we need to know about what's going on 0:01:17.200 --> 0:01:20.839 in Hong Kong. Yeah, well, acchanged, You're absolutely right. Things 0:01:20.920 --> 0:01:24.560 have come to a head UM in Hong Kong with 0:01:24.720 --> 0:01:32.280 the National People's Congress China's parliament passing UH national Security legislation, 0:01:32.319 --> 0:01:36.200 which is going to be imposed on Hong Kong bypassing 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:41.280 the Hong Kong Legislature UM. And this is very clearly 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:46.800 a prelude to a broad and very decisive crackdown on 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:52.240 the democracy protests pro democracy protests UM in Hong Kong. 0:01:52.520 --> 0:01:56.880 And in response to that, the United States has determined 0:01:56.920 --> 0:02:00.840 that Hong Kong no longer enjoys or autonomy or a 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:05.400 sufficient level of autonomy from China UM. And we don't 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:08.680 quite know what the implication of that is, but it 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:13.040 could mean anything from the U S revoking Hong Kong 0:02:13.120 --> 0:02:16.560 Special trading status with the United States to going after 0:02:16.600 --> 0:02:20.519 the assets of individuals responsible for that legislation, or indeed 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:24.840 something broader like you know, an even broader decoupling in 0:02:24.880 --> 0:02:29.400 the financial sector. Choking off the flow of funds into China, 0:02:29.480 --> 0:02:32.280 many of which a mediated through Hong Kong, which of 0:02:32.320 --> 0:02:35.920 course is one of the world's largest financial centers. And 0:02:36.080 --> 0:02:38.440 as you know, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lamb, she defended 0:02:38.480 --> 0:02:41.840 the legislation earlier this week and she said, quote, it 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:44.360 will not affect the legitimate rights and freedoms enjoyed by 0:02:44.440 --> 0:02:48.079 Hong Kong residents. Is she right? That's my first question? 0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:50.679 And what about this timing? Why is this happening? Is 0:02:50.720 --> 0:02:54.120 it because just of the protests or was this, you know, 0:02:54.240 --> 0:02:58.160 something that was going to come from China at some point? Well, 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:00.280 actually it was supposed to have come from Hong Kong. 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:03.320 You know, Hong Kong administration was supposed that we put 0:03:03.360 --> 0:03:06.520 in place a national security law many many years ago, UM, 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:08.799 but has been putting it off in the face of, of 0:03:08.480 --> 0:03:14.480 of course, massive widespread opposition from all segments of Hong 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:18.639 Kong society. Hence it was imposed, um, you know, with 0:03:18.639 --> 0:03:24.959 with without any form of review um by by the 0:03:25.520 --> 0:03:28.960 the the territories legislature. UM. So as far as Carry 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:31.560 Lamb is concerned, saying that you know, this isn't a 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:34.440 threat to the rule of law. We heard something similar 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:38.400 from her predecessor, Um Ton Chi Hua. UM. So you 0:03:38.480 --> 0:03:40.600 see that the the the essence of this law is 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:49.720 it's going after UM secession, terrorism, UM, you know, UH sedition, UM, 0:03:49.920 --> 0:03:53.960 collusion with foreign forces UM. And so Ton Chihua said, well, 0:03:54.000 --> 0:03:56.280 you know, as long as you're not engaged in acts terrorism, 0:03:56.360 --> 0:03:58.280 you're going to be fine, which essentially what Carrie Lamb 0:03:58.320 --> 0:04:02.320 seems to be saying. UM. Problem is that these terms 0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:06.880 in the Chinese judicial lexicon can mean just about anything 0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:10.520 that the authorities want them to mean, and they're used 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:14.480 in China to go after a huge broad array of 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:21.440 dissidents UM, you know, Ngo people, the Wagers, the Tibetans, 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:26.080 you know, UM and so these are catch all terms. Furthermore, 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:31.280 the legislation is going to be accompanied by a physical 0:04:31.320 --> 0:04:35.400 presence in Hong Kong of the security services from agencies 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:38.680 from China Ministry of State Security, Ministry of Public Security. 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:43.240 So you know, it's not clear what degree of oversight 0:04:43.480 --> 0:04:47.240 or interpretation, if if any, that Hong Kong courts will 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:51.040 have over this new National Security ages at law. At 0:04:51.040 --> 0:04:53.120 the very minimum, you can say that it will it 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:56.479 will exist side by side with law. That is the 0:04:56.560 --> 0:04:58.960 term that is there to protect freedom in Hong Kong, 0:04:59.160 --> 0:05:03.320 and it will also include this shadowy parallel presence of 0:05:03.400 --> 0:05:07.400 Chinese security forces operating side by side with the Hong 0:05:07.440 --> 0:05:11.120 Kong Police Force. So andy to be a little bit 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:14.880 parochial about this. From from my perspective, I think about 0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:18.080 our listeners, many of whom work in and around Wall Street. 0:05:18.080 --> 0:05:21.960 They work in the financial industry, the financial services industry. 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:25.680 If you're sitting at JP Morgan Morgan, Stanley, Goldman, Sachs, 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:29.280 any number of global banks, you have a big presence 0:05:29.360 --> 0:05:32.560 in Hong Kong. What are you thinking about right now 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:34.279 in terms of your people who are there now? And 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:37.080 maybe more importantly, how do you think about Hong Kong 0:05:37.120 --> 0:05:40.479 and the near the midterm future. Yeah, so you know, 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:44.080 many details of this legislation, Uh, you know I yet 0:05:44.160 --> 0:05:45.920 to be revealed. We don't know how it's going to 0:05:46.000 --> 0:05:49.520 be implemented. Um, you know, will it be swift, will 0:05:49.560 --> 0:05:51.479 it be brutal? Will it be hard? Will it be 0:05:51.839 --> 0:05:55.479 you know? We we we don't know. UM. I think 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:59.000 probably if you're investing in Hong Kong right now, your 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:02.720 immediate confirm is about street violence, is about the chaos 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:05.479 that's bringing the Hong Kong economy to its knees. You 0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:09.480 may even be somewhat relieved that there's legislation coming which 0:06:09.800 --> 0:06:15.120 could potent potentially snuffed that out and and sort of 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:18.280 revive Hong Kong as a as a business center if 0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:20.280 you're looking for if you're looking at it long term, 0:06:20.320 --> 0:06:22.640 and you're thinking the degree to which Hong Kong is 0:06:22.680 --> 0:06:25.080 a financial center, and they say one of the world's 0:06:25.120 --> 0:06:29.080 great financial centers, the degree to which it is founded 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:31.920 upon the rule of law, and the extent to which 0:06:31.960 --> 0:06:35.880 this national security legislation undermines that rule of law, then 0:06:35.920 --> 0:06:38.040 I think you're going to be very alarmed. And at 0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:39.640 the very least, I think what you're going to see 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:44.080 is a hedging behavior now by companies, financial services companies, UM. 0:06:44.120 --> 0:06:45.920 The ones that don't have to be there are probably 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:47.760 going to start leaving. The big banks have to be there. 0:06:47.760 --> 0:06:50.880 They can't, they can't just take off and and leave. 0:06:51.000 --> 0:06:53.440 But I think you will see a drain of businesses. 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:55.880 You'll certainly see a brain a drain of talent. The 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:58.680 United Kingdom just just a day or yesterday announced that 0:06:59.000 --> 0:07:00.880 it was going to give addition will visa rights to 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:06.000 three thousand Hong Kong British uh possiblet hold is not 0:07:06.120 --> 0:07:10.200 full residency but additional visa rights. Um. Taiwan has said 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:11.920 that it will it will offers shelve to the Hong 0:07:11.960 --> 0:07:14.280 Kong people. So I think you write a real outflow 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:17.360 of tawer. All right, Well, we appreciate your context. As always, 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:20.320 Andy Brownie knows so much about this. Editorial director for 0:07:20.360 --> 0:07:23.720 Bloomberg New Economy Jonny is on the phone from New Hampshire. 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:27.640 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:31.000 Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. He has threatened to shut them 0:07:31.040 --> 0:07:33.080 down now. President Trump says this will be a big 0:07:33.160 --> 0:07:36.000 day for social media and fairness, as he's expected to 0:07:36.040 --> 0:07:39.080 sign an executive order aimed at Twitter and other tech giants. 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:43.640 He's also singled out one specific Twitter employee for those 0:07:43.640 --> 0:07:46.880 fact checking tweets. Let's get into this story because it 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:50.520 just gets more interesting and kind of a hotter story 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:54.040 each day, goes by. Bloomberg News White House correspondent Josh 0:07:54.040 --> 0:07:57.760 wind Grove joining us on the phone on this Thursday. So, Josh, 0:07:58.080 --> 0:08:02.440 we're gonna get this executive order. It sounds like it's 0:08:02.440 --> 0:08:05.160 in flux. The press briefing is ongoing at the Press 0:08:05.200 --> 0:08:08.440 Secretary just said that they're continuing to work on this. 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:11.040 You remember yesterday, it was supposed to come last night, 0:08:11.120 --> 0:08:13.640 and today they haven't really given a time, So it 0:08:13.680 --> 0:08:16.560 sounds like they're still working on at the draft that 0:08:16.680 --> 0:08:21.240 is floating out publicly right now. Uh, sort of targets 0:08:21.480 --> 0:08:24.400 social media companies by kind of taking aim at that 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:27.960 shield that they have on liability, the Section to thirty 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:31.440 protections that treat them as sort of a conduit rather 0:08:31.520 --> 0:08:34.160 than a publisher. It sounds like they're going to try 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:37.200 to rattle the cage somehow on it. But executive orders 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:42.720 have murky authority at best. It is well short of legislation, 0:08:42.840 --> 0:08:44.839 and so you know, the actual impact is going to 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:46.880 depend a lot on that sort of fine text, and 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:49.680 again we just don't know where it's gonna land. Well, 0:08:49.720 --> 0:08:52.840 without being too silly about this, Josh, if I think 0:08:52.880 --> 0:08:55.480 about the relationship that the President of the United States, 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:58.080 both as a candidate and now as the leader of 0:08:58.120 --> 0:09:02.640 the free world, has with social media and specifically with Twitter, 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:07.320 you might say it's complicated. Um, he has relied heavily 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:11.559 on it, to say the least, and certainly has galvanized 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:15.599 a lot of support, but also galvanized a lot of opposition. 0:09:16.080 --> 0:09:20.280 I mean, help us understand the politics of this, because 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:24.920 the net effect might be good for him, might not be. 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:29.760 How are folks around inside the Beltway and outside considering this. 0:09:31.040 --> 0:09:34.959 There is a long running grievance among conservatives that they 0:09:34.960 --> 0:09:38.160 think that social media and big text treat them unfairly 0:09:38.160 --> 0:09:41.600 and target conservative voices unfairly. Trump has been sort of, 0:09:42.000 --> 0:09:44.640 you know, circling this issue on and off since the 0:09:44.720 --> 0:09:48.800 start is presidency, and this sort of fact check label 0:09:48.880 --> 0:09:51.560 that came on for the first time this week sort 0:09:51.559 --> 0:09:53.680 of blewed up again and pushed it to the hit 0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:56.800 front of his mind. But it's been there for a while, 0:09:56.880 --> 0:09:59.400 and so we've seen We've seen, for instance, them target 0:09:59.720 --> 0:10:03.400 this particular Twitter employee, Old Roth, who's the head of 0:10:03.440 --> 0:10:08.160 site integrity, essentially like protecting Twitter against blots and misuse. Uh. 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:11.960 He's tweeted negative things in the administration about the administration, 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:13.800 and they're saying, look, how do you have an employee 0:10:13.800 --> 0:10:16.760 doing that while you're coming at us for for lying. 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:21.360 So I think you know, Twitter has I guess, uh 0:10:21.520 --> 0:10:23.840 taken steps to I guess fact check some of the 0:10:23.840 --> 0:10:27.439 President's tweets, you know, the ones that effectively accused Joe Scarborough, 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:30.319 the MSNBC host, of murder, have so far fart not 0:10:30.520 --> 0:10:35.080 been fact checked at all. So you know, this is 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:38.640 I guess, in some ways a red meat based issue 0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:42.360 for the President because many of his voters and supporters 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:46.000 believe the Twitter and other sites, uh just you know, 0:10:46.120 --> 0:10:49.320 aren't giving them a fair shake. What's amazing is I 0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:51.640 think some would say it's long overdue for these social 0:10:51.679 --> 0:10:54.880 media sites to be responsible about what's on their site, 0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:58.800 right and do fact checking. At the same time, you 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:01.760 do wonder, you know, what the slippery slope is that 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:05.080 we maybe go down here, um, And I just do wonder. 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:08.200 You know, it feels like regulators have backed off a 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:11.800 little bit about, you know, focusing on social media companies. 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:14.160 But I do wonder if we start to see Congress 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:16.400 kind of jump back into the freight at this point. 0:11:17.400 --> 0:11:19.679 It's a great, great question. You know. One of the 0:11:19.760 --> 0:11:22.319 questions that's also been raised is, you know, is it 0:11:22.520 --> 0:11:26.360 these uh companies placed the police truth? And you know, 0:11:26.760 --> 0:11:28.719 I don't think that's necessarily part of the issue. And 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:30.640 by that, I mean I think you'd find some Democrats 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:33.839 who think that who might be uncomfortable with the idea 0:11:33.880 --> 0:11:36.520 of handing Twitter and Google and the likes even more 0:11:36.600 --> 0:11:39.880 power for our lives than they have now to start 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:43.040 deciding what is true or not. You know, the way 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:45.280 the Press Secretary put it, as the president today, she 0:11:45.280 --> 0:11:47.680 said he he wants to make sure big tech is 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:51.280 not stifle free speech. Now, this kind of backs in 0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:54.280 into a bit of a corner because the President can't 0:11:54.320 --> 0:11:59.280 be seen to be targeting Twitter too much inciting for 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:01.959 free speech, because of course he would amount to censorship 0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:05.040 of Twitter in his fight against censorship. But you know 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:09.120 that hasn't necessarily stopped him in the past. So I 0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:13.520 think that we will see something come out this The 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:18.320 draft order is not as harsh as as Trump has 0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:21.080 made it sound, and it sounds like they're still wrangling 0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:23.680 over it. So whether the final order is, you know, 0:12:23.880 --> 0:12:26.760 more watered down or more beefed up, I think remains 0:12:27.160 --> 0:12:29.920 to be seen. But I think it'll be a lobbying 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:32.199 frenzy either way for big tech in Washington. I'm just 0:12:32.240 --> 0:12:36.640 gonna say, Josh, it's definitely an election year. Yeah, for sure, 0:12:36.800 --> 0:12:39.640 for sure. Sometimes we forget that amid everything else going on. 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:42.640 All Right, Joshuayn Grove, White House correspondent for Bloomberg. We 0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:45.440 really appreciate it. I'm great political context there. You know, 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:47.480 we talked to Sarah Fryar yesterday. You can check that 0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:51.640 out on our podcast feed. But this is important. It's 0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:55.120 important for us to understand this. Twitter shares, by the way, 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:58.240 they're down about two point six percent today after being 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:02.800 down about the same amount yesterday. This is Bloomberg Business 0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:06.880 Week with Carol Messer and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. 0:13:07.240 --> 0:13:10.000 So a group of super forecasters say a COVID nineteen 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:13.800 vaccine is still a ways off in today's Business Week Economics. 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:17.280 Business Week Economics editor Peter coy joins us along with 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:19.640 the CEO of that group that pulls all of the 0:13:19.720 --> 0:13:22.959 super forecasters together. He's Warren Hatch, CEO of Good Judgment. 0:13:23.400 --> 0:13:26.120 It's a company that maintains a global network of forecasters 0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:29.840 to make predictions for clients based on publicly available evidence. 0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:33.200 Peter's on the phone in New Jersey, Warren in New 0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:35.920 York City. Peter set the stage for us. I love 0:13:36.120 --> 0:13:39.800 this story. Oh thanks you. You know everybody wants to 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:41.640 know this. When are we gonna have a vaccine? It's 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:46.480 a question on everybody's mind now. So I uh got 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:49.600 a pitch actually from a PR person about good Judgment, 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:52.040 a company I was aware of, but I hadn't really 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.000 looked at their website to see what they were saying 0:13:54.480 --> 0:13:58.480 about COVID nineteen. I was really curious, and you know, 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:01.680 I was surprised actually, and I saw the results how 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:05.040 pessimistic they really were. It seems like they're on the 0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:08.040 pessimistic end of the stuff you're hearing. But I thought, well, 0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:13.160 maybe they're right. And all the you know, companies and 0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:18.040 epidemiologists and government officials are just champing at a bit 0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:20.520 a bit too much, getting a little over Robertimi, this 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:25.560 sounds like a story, So put something out so Warren 0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:27.880 tell us about it. And by the way, I think 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:31.720 super Forecaster is one of the greatest descriptions that I've 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:34.520 ever heard, Like two title, you know, to have the 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:36.520 title like, yeah, I'm a super forecast, Like do you 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:38.240 actually have that on your business card? Or is that 0:14:38.320 --> 0:14:40.320 just something you sort of throw around at cocktail parties. 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:43.720 I'm just giving you a hard time, but it is cool. Well, 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:49.080 I'll want to know, do you have a cape? Uh, well, 0:14:49.120 --> 0:14:50.800 I think there is a cape on one of our 0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:54.600 stock photo images that we've used in the past. Uh. 0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:58.360 And I could tell you that the term um super 0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:02.800 forecast the SuperM orchastras themselves. They're a little uneasy with 0:15:02.800 --> 0:15:05.400 with with with with that. But now that I'm CEO 0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:08.560 of the commercial spinoff, I sure recognize the value of 0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:10.760 the term. I'm all for it. Putting it on my 0:15:10.800 --> 0:15:14.280 business cards a great idea. So what what did you 0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:17.000 find help us understand? You know, as you guys dug 0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:19.760 into this, because as Peter you know rightly said, this 0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:22.600 is running, you know, counter to what a lot of 0:15:22.640 --> 0:15:25.920 us are, you know, hearing and reading from maybe more 0:15:26.080 --> 0:15:31.720 optimistic folks. Yeah. So the way we approach these kinds 0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:34.960 of questions for a clients and government and private sector 0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:39.320 and finances is we think in terms of probabilities. So 0:15:39.760 --> 0:15:43.480 rather than saying, well, a vaccine is unlikely or likely 0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:47.360 or absolutely for sure those sorts of things. Uh, but 0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:51.840 they're really hard to track, to evaluate, to interpret. So 0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:56.560 we use probabilities numbers that you can compare across different 0:15:56.640 --> 0:16:00.360 kinds of questions. When will the US economy recover? Were 0:16:00.480 --> 0:16:04.440 less optimistic than my old friend Steve Raschudo Uh. But 0:16:04.520 --> 0:16:07.480 also when is of what vaccine going to be widely available? 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:10.280 And then we create ranges so we can get a 0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:14.400 little bit more nuance. What's the probability that a vaccine 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:17.240 will be in wide distribution by the end of this year? 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:21.240 Right now, the super forecasters have pretty low odds in 0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:23.880 the single digits that that's going to occur. Now, that 0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:27.240 doesn't mean it won't. In a world of probabilities, you know, 0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:32.480 it's low, we may see it. Uh, But then by may, 0:16:32.560 --> 0:16:36.280 I mean like six percent probability. Um, So it's not zero, 0:16:36.600 --> 0:16:40.240 but the probabilities are much higher for a vaccine and 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:44.640 wide circulation about a year from now. And I can 0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:50.800 also say that the pessimism or the skepticism is less 0:16:50.800 --> 0:16:53.160 than what it was. One of the things that super 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:57.120 forecasters will do is follow the news flow like we 0:16:57.200 --> 0:17:01.480 all do and and uh, and then antify the impact 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:04.600 of that news flow on their forecasts. And so some 0:17:04.680 --> 0:17:07.760 of the news that we have been seeing about possible 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:11.400 successes and some of the vaccine research has been reflected 0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:14.280 in that now they're not seeing much movement in the 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:16.240 probability that we'll get a vaccine by the end of 0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:19.280 this year, but a vaccine by this time next year 0:17:19.840 --> 0:17:23.480 has moved up. Well, it's so fascinating, you know, Peter, 0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:25.359 I feel like Jason likes to make references like this 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:26.960 is going to be in billions, But I could see 0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:29.200 this being in billions, you know, down the road. It's like, 0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:33.200 you know, figuring out what's the likelihood of something happening 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:35.679 or not happening. But I do think in a world 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:37.960 where I was just in a conversation with a bunch 0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:40.920 of CEOs, there's just no data and folks are saying 0:17:40.920 --> 0:17:42.800 you've got to throw out the old data points because 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:45.400 they just don't apply to the future. You know, this 0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:50.080 kind of information can be very useful. Yeah, I mean information. 0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:53.800 It's not like this is the answer. I mean the 0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:58.000 good judgment incorporated is how to share mistakes too. And 0:17:58.040 --> 0:18:00.320 when I talk to Philip pet Luck was a co 0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:04.240 founder University of Pennsylvania professor, and he was the first 0:18:04.280 --> 0:18:07.720 to say, look, it's rare that we're gonna have We're 0:18:07.760 --> 0:18:09.600 gonna be way on one end, everybody will be way 0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:11.119 on the other We'll be right and they'll be wrong. 0:18:11.200 --> 0:18:14.359 And but another hand, if you're right, fifty two of 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:17.280 the time in the stock market for example, you can 0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:21.240 make a lot of money, so uh, you don't again 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:26.119 the the goals. The measure of success is not perfection. 0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:29.040 It's just being having a little bit of an edge. 0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:31.600 And I you know, I'm willing to say that, you know, 0:18:31.640 --> 0:18:35.640 maybe these people just because of their disciplined way of thinking, 0:18:36.200 --> 0:18:39.120 the fact that they don't have they're not emotionally tied 0:18:39.160 --> 0:18:42.440 to a particular answer or financially invested in their particular answer, 0:18:42.680 --> 0:18:44.879 but they just want to make the very best estimate 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:48.520 makes them worth listening to. Yeah, well, and weren't it. 0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:51.080 And we should note you know your background is in 0:18:51.680 --> 0:18:53.720 hedge funds. I mean you you helped co found a 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:56.640 head fund. You understand the research element and so from 0:18:56.680 --> 0:19:00.959 an investment perspective, exactly the framing, uh that Peter just 0:19:01.040 --> 0:19:03.199 laid out is I think important for people to keep 0:19:03.240 --> 0:19:07.040 in mind. Right, I couldn't agree more. And I wish 0:19:07.119 --> 0:19:11.000 I knew twenty years ago when I got started and 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:14.159 find in Morgan Stanley what I know now, because they 0:19:14.160 --> 0:19:17.680 are all these wonderful tools that can give you just 0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:20.000 a little bit of an edge here and there. And 0:19:20.040 --> 0:19:22.520 it's these little things that when you add them all together, 0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:27.560 can add up to a pretty significant outperformance relative to 0:19:27.640 --> 0:19:31.720 your peers. And that's that's what it's all about. All right, Well, 0:19:31.760 --> 0:19:34.280 we really appreciate both of your time. Warren Hatches, the 0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:36.040 CEO of Good Judgment, joining us on the phone from 0:19:36.040 --> 0:19:39.200 New York City. Read more about him and his firm. 0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:41.760 He's a super forecaster. You can follow him on Twitter 0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:46.879 at super Forecaster. Peter Coy wrote the story in Business 0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:51.280 Week Online Peter Coy, of Course Economics Ceter for Bloomberg Week. 0:19:51.400 --> 0:19:54.919 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason 0:19:55.000 --> 0:20:00.440 Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Huawei continues to be in the 0:20:00.480 --> 0:20:06.639 news and owing in Part two are continued attention that 0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:09.680 we're paying to cybersecurity and also some headlines yesterday coming 0:20:09.680 --> 0:20:12.960 out of Canada. Here to discuss all that. Andy Purty's 0:20:13.040 --> 0:20:16.199 chief security officer for Huawei Technologies USA, joining us on 0:20:16.200 --> 0:20:18.440 the phone from But that's the Andy. Really nice to 0:20:18.480 --> 0:20:21.479 have you back with us. Thank you pleasure. All right, 0:20:21.560 --> 0:20:23.840 so let's start in the news if we can. UH 0:20:23.960 --> 0:20:28.760 the CFO of Huawei, the parent company UH continues to 0:20:28.840 --> 0:20:31.160 be part of a big legal fight in Canada. Help 0:20:31.240 --> 0:20:35.679 us understand what's going on and candidly beyond the the 0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:38.760 legal issue here sort of what it means for business, 0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:43.080 what it means for the brand at this point, well, 0:20:43.240 --> 0:20:47.480 the effort against Miss Mong, our chief financial officer, is 0:20:47.560 --> 0:20:50.360 part of the overall effort the last couple of years 0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:54.439 by the US government to carpet BOMBAWE out of existence. 0:20:54.600 --> 0:20:57.679 And in terms of the impact on the company, the 0:20:57.760 --> 0:21:01.880 decision involving Miss mom and the process for extradition will 0:21:01.920 --> 0:21:06.520 take quite a number of months, if not years, before 0:21:06.800 --> 0:21:09.560 there might be a actual trial in the Eastern District 0:21:09.600 --> 0:21:11.159 of New York. And we have great confidence in the 0:21:11.240 --> 0:21:17.800 legal systems of Canada and the US, so we feel 0:21:17.800 --> 0:21:20.280 like I shall be vindicated in the end. But right now, 0:21:20.320 --> 0:21:24.560 this this campaign against Wahwei, the recent ramping up of 0:21:24.680 --> 0:21:28.520 pressure on American company's ability to sell to Wawa, even 0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:31.600 through international companies, is going to have a tremendous negative 0:21:31.600 --> 0:21:35.240 impact on American jobs. You know, it's interesting, you know 0:21:35.320 --> 0:21:38.160 that this is going on amid a week or two 0:21:38.320 --> 0:21:42.199 where we are seeing once again heightened tensions UH and 0:21:42.280 --> 0:21:45.000 back and forth between the head of the United States, 0:21:45.000 --> 0:21:47.920 President Trump and of course Chinese President j and Ping. 0:21:48.119 --> 0:21:51.639 And what how do you see this? Uh? You know, 0:21:51.640 --> 0:21:54.240 you've got to run your business amid kind of all 0:21:54.280 --> 0:21:56.440 of this fury, and we're trying to figure out is 0:21:56.480 --> 0:21:59.560 that rhetoric or is it going to turn into actions 0:21:59.600 --> 0:22:04.200 at all? The mainly impact both China and the United States. Well, 0:22:04.240 --> 0:22:08.040 there's certainly been an impact on our company. The impact 0:22:08.119 --> 0:22:10.920 US about twelve million dollars last year, and we haven't 0:22:10.920 --> 0:22:13.120 been able to estimate what the impact will be this year. 0:22:13.119 --> 0:22:15.920 Of course, it's it's complicated by the added factor of 0:22:16.200 --> 0:22:19.159 the pandemic, but you look at the overall situation. The 0:22:19.200 --> 0:22:22.120 geopolitical situation between China and the US is what we're 0:22:22.160 --> 0:22:26.480 talking about, and that's exacerbated now by the US presidential campaign. 0:22:26.600 --> 0:22:31.200 So the the the competition among President Trump and a 0:22:31.320 --> 0:22:35.760 former vice President Biden to out maneuver the other in 0:22:35.880 --> 0:22:38.760 terms of anti China rhetoric, kind of a new red 0:22:38.840 --> 0:22:42.720 Scare kind of thing. Um indicates that this battle is 0:22:43.119 --> 0:22:45.879 going to go on at least through the election. And 0:22:46.040 --> 0:22:49.000 there doesn't seem to be rational discussion and people don't 0:22:49.000 --> 0:22:51.040 seem to care about the fact that American jobs are 0:22:51.040 --> 0:22:54.239 going to be lost as a result, and can you 0:22:54.359 --> 0:22:58.000 quantify you know, the job's piece of this I understand 0:22:58.000 --> 0:23:01.000