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Speaker 1: The bridge was in the town of Tire. Israel's defense

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Speaker 1: minister said that hesbealah And, which is the Iranian backed militia,

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Speaker 1: was using it to move fighters and weapons into the

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Speaker 1: southern part of the country. This video was released today

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Speaker 1: by US Central Commands, saying it showed its forces continue

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Speaker 1: to aggressively strike Iranian military targets with precision munitions.

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Speaker 2: Those were their words.

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Speaker 1: Over the weekend, President Trump suddenly he should an ultimatum

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Speaker 1: on social media, threatening Iran with a deadline that would

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Speaker 1: have passed just about thirty minutes ago. Here's what he

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Speaker 1: posted on Saturday at seven forty four pm.

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Speaker 2: Quote.

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Speaker 1: If Iran doesn't fully open without threat the Strait of

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Speaker 1: Hormuz within forty eight hours from this exact point in time,

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Speaker 1: the United States of America will hit and obliterate their

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Speaker 1: various power plants, starting with the biggest one first. Iran's

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Speaker 1: military responded on Sunday that if his threats regarding Iran's

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Speaker 1: power plants are carried out, the Strait of Hormuz will

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Speaker 1: be complete letely closed, and that all Israeli energy and

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Speaker 1: communications infrastructure will be targeted, as well as quote similar

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Speaker 1: companies in the region.

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Speaker 2: With US shareholders.

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Speaker 1: Then this morning, the President posted this quote, I am

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Speaker 1: pleased to report that the United States of America and

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Speaker 1: the country of Bhran have had over the last two days,

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Speaker 1: very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total

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Speaker 1: resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. He went

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Speaker 1: on to say, quote, I have instructed the Department of

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Speaker 1: War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian

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Speaker 1: power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period,

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Speaker 1: subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.

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Speaker 1: For its part, Iran denied such talks that happened, and

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Speaker 1: the speaker of Iran's parliament even borrowed a page from

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Speaker 1: the president's own playbook, calling it fake news.

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Speaker 3: Well, the Iraq War, as we learned some of it

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Speaker 3: in real time and certainly since then, was based on

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Speaker 3: a lie, on an exaggeration. But the Bush administration was

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Speaker 3: very serious about it. They put together an enormous effort worldwide,

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Speaker 3: brought together forty countries in a global coalition, stayed on

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Speaker 3: message on a single message throughout. It was about WMD

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Speaker 3: and about bringing democracy to the Middle East, and they

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Speaker 3: did not vary from those messages. This war is that

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Speaker 3: there's so many things that are made up that seem

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Speaker 3: on the fly by the seat of the president's pants,

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Speaker 3: that it's hard to get a sense of what the

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Speaker 3: purpose is, what the end goal looks like. There's been

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Speaker 3: no communication that's consistent that explains the theory of the

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Speaker 3: campy over the week, Sagowyer, Well, you.

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Speaker 4: Shogaryer and twenty two hundred marines from Japan, y send

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Speaker 4: twenty two hundred marines from California.

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Speaker 5: That's a very good question.

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Speaker 6: I think that they're probably talking about a ground operation

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Speaker 6: at Carg Island. There might also be a ground operation

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Speaker 6: of what are the islands in the Strait of our moves.

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Speaker 6: The problem with Cardig Island is a long ways away

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Speaker 6: from the Strait reg I mean, no, I totally agree

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Speaker 6: it'd be absolutely ludicrous to do this. But because I

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Speaker 6: mean that's what I mean, you're putting boots on the ground.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, sure, they're.

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Speaker 6: Going to be able to take Carg Island, let's say,

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Speaker 6: fairly easily, probably in about a week or so something

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Speaker 6: like that. And they have twenty two hundred with an

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Speaker 6: aviation component, so they can probably control that ground and

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Speaker 6: seize that terrain pretty easily. But now they're gonna be

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Speaker 6: sitting twenty miles off the coast of Iran and there

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Speaker 6: are just a big target. Think about all the missiles

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Speaker 6: that are gonna be fired, all the drones are gonna

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Speaker 6: come over. Think about the political implications of having American soldiers, sailors,

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Speaker 6: Irman marines killed on Iranian sovereign territory.

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Speaker 1: Think about what.

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Speaker 6: That would that kind of message would send it the

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Speaker 6: world into the Ranian people. You know, these are tough,

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Speaker 6: brazilient people. They are not going to take this.

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Speaker 1: Very real lightly so general.

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Speaker 4: Isn't Iran's potential control of those State of Horror moves?

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Speaker 4: Wasn't that the most obvious card they had to play here?

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Speaker 7: Why is it that it seems that the US was

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Speaker 7: not prepared for this? Well, Andre, we actually were prepared

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Speaker 7: for it. I don't know where this narrative came out

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Speaker 7: that it was a big surprise. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 7: we do an annual exercise with up to thirty countries

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Speaker 7: and about the closure of the State straight of hor

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Speaker 7: moves and how to reopen it. And so what you're

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Speaker 7: seeing in the campaign now, and I think this is

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Speaker 7: really important to understand, is a continuation of the joint

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Speaker 7: of the combined force of the US and Israel, prioritizing

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Speaker 7: the missile and the drone capabilities, including their manufacturing capabilities,

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Speaker 7: including their ability to reconstitute their missiles and drones with

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Speaker 7: support from Russia and China. There are a couple of

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Speaker 7: ships sailing right now with solid fuel from China. I

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Speaker 7: don't think they're going to make it to Iran. And

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Speaker 7: you saw the IDF in the last twenty four to

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Speaker 7: forty eight hours striking ships in the Caspian Sea in

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Speaker 7: the far north of Iran because Russia was smuggling drones

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Speaker 7: into a ran to reconstitute their capabilities.

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Speaker 8: President clearly thinks you do negotiations by press release or

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Speaker 8: by tweet. That's not how negotiations are done. They can't

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Speaker 8: be done as a drive by. This is very serious.

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Speaker 9: This is war.

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Speaker 8: I do hope that there are talks that take place.

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Speaker 8: I don't think there's any chance at all that fifteen

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Speaker 8: points of agreement have come to pass at this point.

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Speaker 8: The most one could get in five days are very

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Speaker 8: very broad parameters. This is a highly technical negotiation. And

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Speaker 8: one of the things we've seen time and time again

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Speaker 8: is that this administration doesn't really recognize expertise or respect expertise,

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Speaker 8: and they're going to need some people at the time,

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Speaker 8: even if it's Vice President fans who actually know what

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Speaker 8: they're talking about.

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Speaker 5: Walk model.

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Speaker 9: Let me bring you into the White House thinking in

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Speaker 9: this moment and how they are viewing this. To Hagar's point,

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Speaker 9: they are not looking at opposition back transition right now.

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Speaker 9: They are not looking to bring in an outsider. In fact,

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Speaker 9: officials I spoke to told me Reza Palabi, the exiled

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Speaker 9: Prince that some people are looking to as a potential

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Speaker 9: leader that is not on the table for somebody that

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Speaker 9: the US would back. Instead, they are looking right now

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Speaker 9: at the Speaker of Parliament as a potential partner for

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Speaker 9: the United States and possibly that the United States could

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Speaker 9: work with. Now he is you talked about the r GC,

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Speaker 9: the Revolutionary Guard. He's a former IRGC commander. He is

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Speaker 9: a powerbroker, and he is not a moderate necessarily, again

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Speaker 9: to Hagar's point.

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Speaker 10: But this is somebody that the United States believes might

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Speaker 10: be someone on the inside that could potentially have a

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Speaker 10: pragmatic streak and be willing to make a deal with

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Speaker 10: the United States.

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Speaker 3: Let's let's not understate the fact that the conventional Iranian

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Speaker 3: military strength has been greatly weakened. That planes are have

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Speaker 3: been blown up, their ships have been blown up, But

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Speaker 3: conventional military strength has not been the core of the

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Speaker 3: menace that Iran represents in the region and to the

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Speaker 3: wider world. It's always been about unexpected asymmetric capabilities. Those

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Speaker 3: drones that do so much damage sleepers ells all over

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Speaker 3: the world. They're proxy militias. So uti is that has

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Speaker 3: Bela and people like that, and these are only the

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Speaker 3: ones we know about it. This is a regime that

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Speaker 3: for fifty years. Every day this regime, the people at

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Speaker 3: the highest levels of this regime have been absolutely convinced

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Speaker 3: that sooner or later, America's going to come for them.

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Speaker 3: So they've been preparing for fifty years. They've always known

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Speaker 3: that they were never going to be able to stand

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Speaker 3: up against the greatest military in the world, and so

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Speaker 3: they've been making plans precisely for that. So to say

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Speaker 3: that we've blown up every one of their ships, those

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Speaker 3: ships are not the real threat. Without any ships, they've

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Speaker 3: still managed to block the Straits of Hormuz and essentially

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Speaker 3: put a chokehold on the global economy. That's the nature

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Speaker 3: of the regime we're dealing with. These are very serious people.

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Speaker 3: They're seriously bad people, but they are very.

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Speaker 5: Serious, and they're fighting for their lives.

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Speaker 3: They're fighting for their existence. Yeah, they know that if

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Speaker 3: they if they lose this war, their biggest problem will

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Speaker 3: not be American bombs from the air. Their biggest problem

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Speaker 3: will be their own citizens will hanging them from lamp

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Speaker 3: posts in Tehran. You know, they've done so much damage

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Speaker 3: to their own country and their own people for so

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Speaker 3: long that there's a lot of resentment built up there.

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Speaker 3: They can't afford to show any weakness.

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Speaker 4: Back to tonight's breaking news, the Wall Street Journal reporting

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Speaker 4: thousands of US marines are slated to arrive in the

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Speaker 4: Middle East on Friday, according to two US officials, the

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Speaker 4: day President Trump has set as the deadline for Iran

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Speaker 4: to reopen the Strait of Hormouse. As the US builds

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Speaker 4: up its presence in the region, Donald Trump has been

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Speaker 4: sending mixed messages over his war of choice that included

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Speaker 4: a vow to obliterate Iran's power plants, to later insisting

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Speaker 4: without providing any details, that productive conversations to end the

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Speaker 4: war were underway, something that Iran has denied.

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Speaker 2: It's Tuesday, twenty four March year Lord twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 2: What President Trump committed to yesterday, and we talked about

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Speaker 2: having various conversations where people were actually conversation. One they

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Speaker 2: were going down a punch li is to get fifteen

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Speaker 2: items agreed to. He did not. As we mentioned on

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Speaker 2: the show, he said he would not. He would hold

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Speaker 2: off on the bombing of the energy and infrastructure. He

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Speaker 2: did not say the samecom war of defanging, declawing, the

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Speaker 2: methodical takedown of the conventional military forces of the Iranian

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Speaker 2: government would stop. And of course overnight another horrific night

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Speaker 2: of giving as good as they got they actually got.

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Speaker 2: They shelled Tel Aviv, and of course the Israelis hit

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Speaker 2: them hard. The Americans hit them hard. On the conventional

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Speaker 2: military side. There are the White House talking about having discussions.

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Speaker 2: There are a couple of different I think streams on this.

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Speaker 2: One is with potentially through Pakistan's field Marshal. I think

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Speaker 2: it's Mirran, who is very close to the President Trump.

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Speaker 2: He's been in the Oval Office, he's had lunch with

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Speaker 2: the President. President Trump thinks very highly of him. This

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Speaker 2: is one of the ones they're talking about doing it

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Speaker 2: with the Speaker of the House, which is still part

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Speaker 2: of the hunta of the of the of the kind

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Speaker 2: of the Mola Ayatola Islamic theocrat. Click. There's other discussions

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Speaker 2: about Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff might be discussing with

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Speaker 2: people Erdawan. The Turks may be involved in that. Let's

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Speaker 2: say this. There's also a collection of foreign ministers of

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Speaker 2: Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain and UAE. They're

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Speaker 2: also having discussions. A lot of people are trying to

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Speaker 2: figure out how this war winds down, but the underlying

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Speaker 2: military aspect of this continues on overnight. Sencom going through,

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Speaker 2: like I said, their methodical defanging declining program. Also, two

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Speaker 2: marine amphibious ready groups are marine expeditionary units. One on

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Speaker 2: the USS Tripoli coming for about twenty five hundred marines

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Speaker 2: coming from Japan, I think a couple of days away.

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Speaker 2: Also the USS Boxer from San Diego about twenty two

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Speaker 2: hundred marines. That would give us about approximately I don't know,

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Speaker 2: five thousand marines amphibious assault forces with complete helicopter and

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Speaker 2: the other the Ausprey aircraft that can be both helicopter

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Speaker 2: and also conventional in addition to all the assets we

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Speaker 2: have in there, my understanding is a tremendous amount of

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Speaker 2: support aircraft eighty second airboard maybe on alert. So other

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Speaker 2: as negotiations going on, President Trump is not giving up

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Speaker 2: any of his military leverage. In fact, I would say

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Speaker 2: that that leverage in the applicability, the sharp end of

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Speaker 2: the spear actually from a non air aspect is coming

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Speaker 2: to around the North Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman.

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Speaker 2: That would either take carg Island and or some of

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Speaker 2: the right around the straight her Moos where they've had

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Speaker 2: this five thousand pound bunker busting bomb B two runs.

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Speaker 2: Might even do an amphibious assault there to take and

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Speaker 2: hold that and make sure those missiles and drones, etc.

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Speaker 2: Are taken care of. So an increasingly complex military operation

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Speaker 2: continues on with more aspects coming at the same time,

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Speaker 2: various discussions. I mean, the President's been pretty clear his

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Speaker 2: military objectives. He's also said, hey, the straight of horse

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Speaker 2: moves has got to be open. I think it's becoming

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Speaker 2: more and more evident every day that our quote unquote allies,

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Speaker 2: particularly in Europe and NATO are just not up to

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Speaker 2: the task. It's more this is kind of more happy

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Speaker 2: talk than they gave in Ukraine about what type of

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Speaker 2: military and naval assets they would give to keep these

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Speaker 2: straight or her moves and the Persian Gulf open for

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Speaker 2: free navigation. Also, don't forget the Gate of Tears down

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Speaker 2: at the Red Sea right off of Yemen, where the

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Speaker 2: Houties essentially control or if they get involved, at which

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Speaker 2: they have not they've held back, would be another aspect

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Speaker 2: that you would have to keep that open to make

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Speaker 2: sure you get to the Suez Canal. Increasingly complex, geopolitically complex, militarily.

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Speaker 2: President Trump the ultimate deal maker, thinking through his options,

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Speaker 2: keeping a lot of irons in the fire. Also, I

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Speaker 2: think he may be keeping the Iranian the Iranian establishment

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Speaker 2: of the IRGC on their back foot. Of course, the Iranians,

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Speaker 2: I think they look at the Americans, Hey, these guys

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Speaker 2: are bringing in the Marines. Can we really cut a

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Speaker 2: deal here? They just buying time. All the complexity we

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Speaker 2: got Kurt Mills, American Conservative. We also have Eric Bowen's

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Speaker 2: going to talk about some markets. We're also going to

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Speaker 2: pivot to get some political news here in the good

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Speaker 2: old United States of America. Some good news out there

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Speaker 2: and a big battle down at Georgia. Also is America

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Speaker 2: driving off a physical cliff. We'll talk all about that first,

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Speaker 2: Ladies over, Good.

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Speaker 11: Morning, Ambassador Crowley, Ambassador Wolds, Secretary McMahon, Deputy Secretary, LANDAU

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Speaker 11: Director Christias Chairman, Ferguson, Special Envoy for the Best Future Generations,

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Speaker 11: Charles Harder. Thank you all for being champions for fostering

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Speaker 11: the future together. It is wonderful to receive such an

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Speaker 11: impressive delegation of world leaders, first spouses and be best

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Speaker 11: in class tech companies, all with a shared purpose to

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Speaker 11: empower our next generations advancement in technology and education. Welcome Albania,

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Speaker 11: Antiga and Berbuddha, Aruba, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Bangladesh, Belize and Bolivia.

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Speaker 11: It is my distinct honor to have Burundi, Cabo Verde, Congo,

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Speaker 11: Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Estonia, Friends, Gambia, Georgia,

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Speaker 11: Ghana and Guatemala here in Washington, d C. Greetings Israel, Kenya, Kosovo, Lithuania, Malta, Malawi, Montenegro, Morocco, Nigeria,

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Speaker 11: North Macedonia, Palao, Panama and of course Paraguay. Hello Poland. Romania, Senegal, Serbia, Seashelles,

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Speaker 11: Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Saint Kitts and Nieves, Ukraine and UAE.

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Speaker 11: As people, we dream, As leaders, we progress. As nations,

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Speaker 11: we will build. Beginning today, let's accelerate our new global

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Speaker 11: alliance this bond to positively impact the progress of our children.

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Speaker 11: Welcome members to the inaugural meeting of Fostering the Future Together.

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Speaker 11: Our coalition's mission is to empower children by providing greater

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Speaker 11: access to technology and education. This is a historic moment

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Speaker 11: in time, our key driver to cultivate the skills young

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Speaker 11: people need to be successful in this rapidly evolving world.

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Speaker 5: In the future.

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Speaker 11: Together will achieve these by creating innovative learning programs, advocating

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Speaker 11: for supportive education policies, sponsoring new tech focused legislation, and

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Speaker 11: building strong partnerships between the public and private sectors. Each

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Speaker 11: of you has a fintal role to play in shaping

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Speaker 11: the tech ad opportunities for the next generation. Fostering the

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Speaker 11: Future Together's collaborative platform will serve as a capability multiplier

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Speaker 11: for members. This added benefit is derived directly from our

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Speaker 11: coalitions foundational elements AI, education and global leadership. Our shared

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Speaker 11: vision prioritized children about political philosophy, graphical borders, and local justices.

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Speaker 11: To turn this vision into action, I invite each of

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Speaker 11: you to participate. Commit to hosting original meeting, conduct research, study,

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Speaker 11: advance new partnerships, collaborate with another member nation in your

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Speaker 11: region of the world. Magic happens in our nation's capital,

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Speaker 11: particularly when the private and public sectors join forces. Today's

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Speaker 11: meeting is unprecedented. I command America's leading companies for convening

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Speaker 11: with us today. Never before have so many tech visionaries

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Speaker 11: stood before such a large global audience of leaders in

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Speaker 11: the State Department and the White House over the two

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Speaker 11: day period. Nowhere else could such a contancentration of excellent

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Speaker 11: be assembled. From a pioneers like open Ai, Polunteer, and Xai,

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Speaker 11: to tech platforms like Google and Meta creative engines like

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Speaker 11: Adobe and Microsoft, plus human connectivity through Zoom Communications. This

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Speaker 11: room is filled with extraordinary human capital. Leaders harness it

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Speaker 11: to alleviate your children, to empower your people, and to

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Speaker 11: accelerate your economies. Our Coalition for Leaders will improve our future,

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Speaker 11: but only by supporting concrete initiatives that equip young people

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Speaker 11: with the skills and knowledge they need together, let's invest,

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Speaker 11: expand success and create opportunities for education and technology. I

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Speaker 11: wish everyone great success during Fostering the Future Together's Global

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Speaker 11: Coalition summit. There is much to accomplish over this two

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Speaker 11: day period, and this is only the beginning.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, First Lady of the United States at the

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Speaker 2: State Department this morning, just moments ago, Kurt Mills, I'd

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Speaker 2: laid out after the cold Open, by the way, another

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Speaker 2: brilliant job by the Warren production team and a real

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Speaker 2: American voice, a team in Denver. Want to thank everybody

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Speaker 2: for doing that. I think I will to string all

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Speaker 2: those together and every day of the war and kind

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Speaker 2: of just lay it out. Think it lays out the

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Speaker 2: entire war. Just incredible, Kurt. Multiple streams of negotiation, right,

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Speaker 2: You've got foreign ministers in riod of the major Arab nations.

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Speaker 2: You've got some sort of path maybe with Turkey and

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Speaker 2: with Steve Whitkoff and Jered Kushner although they're being accused

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Speaker 2: of being Israeli agents by certain members of the Iranian regime.

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Speaker 2: You've got the Field Marshal in Pakistan who's quite close

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Speaker 2: to President Trump. And there you may have the there

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Speaker 2: you may have their Speaker of the House. It looks

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Speaker 2: like a lot of irons in the fire. But as

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Speaker 2: I said yesterday, when President Trump said, hey, we're not

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Speaker 2: going to hit the energy in the in the oil infrastructure,

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Speaker 2: he did he specifically didn't say, I'm accalloff Sencam another

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Speaker 2: big night last night on the on the actual kinetic side.

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Speaker 2: Put this in perspective for sir, where are we just morning?

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Speaker 12: Yeah, So obviously the starting gone on the week was shot,

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Speaker 12: so to speak, by the President's attempt to calm the

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Speaker 12: markets by saying that he was not going to basically

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Speaker 12: see through his ultimatum to the Iranians. And from there

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Speaker 12: it's it's sort of a guessing game. It's very clear

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Speaker 12: that the White House wants to talk with Iran. What's

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Speaker 12: less clear is if it's going on and with whom

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Speaker 12: they are speaking. The reality of the Iranian government at

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Speaker 12: this point is that they have effectively a junta around

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Speaker 12: Most Tabahamane, the new Supreme Leader. Whatever Most Tabahamane's status

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Speaker 12: and health, it's there's rumors flurry about potentially lost a leg,

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Speaker 12: et cetera, et cetera. What matters is that there are

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Speaker 12: eight to nine decision makers with in Tehran that the

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Speaker 12: that DC would have to deal with, and so if

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Speaker 12: Trump wants to deal, he's got to figure out who

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Speaker 12: to extended to. There's also reports again South Asian reports,

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Speaker 12: so not exactly uh, the let's say Anglo American commitment

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Speaker 12: to the truth in that part of the world journalistically. Uh,

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Speaker 12: there are reports of a potential VP meeting with the

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Speaker 12: speaker of the Iranian Parliament gallabeif I think that actually

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Speaker 12: would be a very generative idea something that I think

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Speaker 12: that would be a useful maneuver boy the administration. I think, frankly,

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Speaker 12: at this point, at this juncture good change, Kushner and

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Speaker 12: Wikoff are seen as as agents of Israel effectively as

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Speaker 12: you allude to, for better or worse.

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Speaker 2: Why that's because that's because Steve and Jared were working

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Speaker 2: on the main negotiation when it was broken off and

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Speaker 2: the attack took place. So the Iranians were sitting there going,

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Speaker 2: we can't trust those guys because we didn't get a

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Speaker 2: heads up. We thought we were in negotiations with this.

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Speaker 12: Look, it's going on on both sides. I mean, I

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Speaker 12: saw over the weekend in Axios and Barack Reravide, you know,

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Speaker 12: the Americans are on background calling, you know, the Iranian

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Speaker 12: foreign minister Rachi a fax machine. So like everybody's angry

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Speaker 12: at everybody about who to talk to. I think the reality, though,

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Speaker 12: is that Wikoff has handled this portfolio for over a

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Speaker 12: year and we don't have a deal, and Kushner is

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Speaker 12: obviously seen as very tight with NETANYAHUU. The reality here

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Speaker 12: is that this war is not going to end until

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Speaker 12: President Trump says no to Israel. If he's unwilling to

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Speaker 12: do that or unable to do that, this war will

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Speaker 12: continue in some in some form, or at least at worst.

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Speaker 2: It will there will be a pause and let's go

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Speaker 2: back in the summer.

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Speaker 12: And I think that's a catastrophe.

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Speaker 2: Look, there's a breaking news that the Pakistanis have offered

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Speaker 2: to host some sort of talks. You've got the foreign

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Speaker 2: ministers all meeting in Saudi Arabia of Kuwait and UAE

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Speaker 2: Saudi in Egypt. You've got the Turks. Ertawan is making

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Speaker 2: moves to say he wants to be helpful somehow the

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Speaker 2: entire region. It looks like Kurt says, hey, we've had

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Speaker 2: enough of this already, and as bad as these guys are,

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Speaker 2: somehow will figure this out. I mean there there. That

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Speaker 2: is part of the pressures come of the White House. Also,

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Speaker 2: remember we're bowling on here, joined Kurt in a moment.

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Speaker 2: Even with the Iranians, and we've done some back of

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Speaker 2: the envelope math. Everybody in that region is incentivized, at

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Speaker 2: least to date, to get to get the price of

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Speaker 2: oil and gas up. They're calling force majeure, the Kataris,

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Speaker 2: the Iraqis force sure on these contracts, the Iranians. You know,

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Speaker 2: oil at one hundred and forty bucks is a lot

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Speaker 2: better than President Trump's full spectrum energy dominance, where it's

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Speaker 2: got a four handle in front of it. Right, that's

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Speaker 2: not when they're lifting costs. I think twenty bucks now

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Speaker 2: they want a five bagger every time they pull a

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Speaker 2: barrel out. Anyway, Kurt, hang on for one second. Birch Gold,

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Speaker 2: take your phone at text Bannon b A N N

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Speaker 2: O nine eight nine eight nine eight The Ultimate Guide

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Speaker 2: for Investing Gold and Precious Metals in the Age of Trump.

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Speaker 2: And this gets you contact with Philip Patrick. Talk to him,

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Speaker 2: talk about turbulent markets. Gold's got hammered last week, little

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Speaker 2: uptick this morning, then down. It ain't the daily price.

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Speaker 2: It's the process of drives value. Talk to the experts

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Speaker 2: at Birch Gold, Philip Patrick and his team. Short commercial break,

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Speaker 2: Kurt Mill's going to join Eric Bowling on the other side.

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Speaker 5: Use your host, Stephen k Bath.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna get back to Curt in a second. About

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Speaker 2: these negotiations, Eric Bowling. Two reports that just kind of

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Speaker 2: popped the the theoretical force majure of the Qataris. I

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Speaker 2: understand now I'm reading it. They have actually invoked force masure,

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Speaker 2: which means kind of active war of act of God

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Speaker 2: on LERG long term contracts for LG supplies, disrupting deliveries

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Speaker 2: to Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China. Also breaking news

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Speaker 2: from the Financial Times of London that says five hundred

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Speaker 2: and eighty million dollars of old trades happened moments before,

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Speaker 2: minutes before President Trump made his announcement on the talks yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Let's take the first event first. The Iraqis have already

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Speaker 2: called force masure in some of their contracts.

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Speaker 7: Here.

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Speaker 2: Here's one of the issues is that everybody over there,

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Speaker 2: including the Arrange, the Saudia's, the Kuwaitis, the Qataris, they're

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Speaker 2: all incentivized to have these higher prices call force masure,

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Speaker 2: negate the contracts they sold when President Trump was full

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Speaker 2: on with full spectrum energy dominance and reap a massive

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Speaker 2: reward for this war that America is underwriting with our

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Speaker 2: tax payer money, in our in our troops, sir.

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Speaker 13: So yeah, Steve, Remember we talked about these force measures

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Speaker 13: that would likely be popping out because you don't want

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Speaker 13: to make a commitment. You've made a commitment of fifty

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Speaker 13: five or sixty dollars a barrel or the equivalent of

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Speaker 13: it's lng. And then the legal loophole that you can

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Speaker 13: work your way through is force masure, which is an

430
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 13: active god, active nature or war. And so they figured

431
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,080
Speaker 13: out this is a good opportunity. You know, some of

432
00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 13: the people that we don't maybe respect as much that

433
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,880
Speaker 13: they're doing business with, they'll they'll declare force masure and

434
00:28:57,920 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 13: double the price that they're gonna they're gonna get for

435
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 13: no question about that. We told Quitar had already insinuated

436
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 13: that they may do it. Now they've looks like they

437
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 13: have done it. We knew the Kuwaitis did it with

438
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 13: refined products out a week ago. But when they did

439
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 13: that see we were on air I think when it happened,

440
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 13: and I said, look, I expect a lot more of this,

441
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 13: and I think you will see a lot more of

442
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 13: it because whether it this doesn't look.

443
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 5: Like it's ending anytime soon.

444
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 13: So this all clear that we kind of felt was

445
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 13: the people who were saying was happening yesterday. You know,

446
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 13: you and I talked about it on rav My show

447
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 13: into years that likely wasn't over yet. The Conicco Ceo,

448
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 13: it was Conico Ceo Chevron Ceo, I'm sorry, said we

449
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 13: got a lot more upside here, and people aren't realizing

450
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 13: how dangerous this is. You know, you can call this

451
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 13: a war dividend for these Middle Eastern countries, all right,

452
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 13: So yes, Iran is gonna get hit, They're gonna get

453
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 13: hit hard, they'll continue to get hit hard.

454
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 5: But do the math. They produced three million barrels per day.

455
00:29:57,360 --> 00:30:00,080
Speaker 13: They're probably gonna push all prices around one hundred, one

456
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 13: hundred and twenty dollars.

457
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 5: A barrel that steve it lasts sixty days only. I mean,

458
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 5: this s cool last a lot longer sixty.

459
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 13: Days only, and we'd handed Iran a war given in

460
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 13: of over twenty one billion dollars. So this everyone looks

461
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:17,479
Speaker 13: at it into like counting tubli. You have to look

462
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 13: at it because everyone looks at war in Iran. We're

463
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 13: hitting them, we're degrading them, but we're also handing them,

464
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 13: you know, a bank account to rebuild and rebuild the

465
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 13: way they want. That's why I believe the deal a

466
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 13: deal needs to be made, needs to be made fairly

467
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 13: quickly with type parameras as.

468
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 2: Far as the just from hang hang, hang on, hang on,

469
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 2: hang on, hand slow down, just quickly walk people through

470
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 2: math on that. With the now, Iran's got cash flow problems.

471
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 2: They can't get their stuff out. People talking about sending

472
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 2: the Marines into to secure carg Island, which would cut

473
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 2: them off from the world at least their ability to

474
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 2: get it out, get it and monetize it. To just

475
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 2: walk through the basic math of what they reserve. One

476
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 2: of the issues in the Middle East, particularly with President

477
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 2: Trump's full spectrum energy dominance, is that they look at

478
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 2: this as a wasting asset, and you know, they hate

479
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 2: selling that when they're lifting cost is I don't know

480
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 2: around twenty it used to be five. I think somebody

481
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 2: says it's twenty bucks a barrow.

482
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 5: Let's assume that, yeah, me, that was me. It was five.

483
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 5: It was five dollars a barrel.

484
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 13: It was five dollars a barrel to lift it, you know,

485
00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 13: thirty forty years ago, sand just pull it right out.

486
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 13: It pushes thirty dollars a barrel now maybe even a

487
00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 13: little bit higher. So at fifty five they're not making

488
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 13: a massive well, they're making good profit. That making a

489
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 13: massive profit to fund their economy, because this is really

490
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 13: it's petro dollars that fund most of those Middle Eastern countries' economies.

491
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 13: At one hundred and twenty dollars a barrel, you're talking

492
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 13: and saying number here, I'll do the math for three

493
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 13: million barrels a day and Ran produces right now, and

494
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 13: that's down from seven or eight which they have in

495
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 13: the past, which means if they want to ramp it up,

496
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 13: it could be a lot more. So, just three million

497
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 13: barrels a day which they're producing prior to the war,

498
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 13: one hundred and twenty dollars a barrel. That's three hundred

499
00:31:56,840 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 13: and sixty million dollars petro dollars per day. Give it

500
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 13: sixty days, and you're talking twenty one point six billion

501
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:09,560
Speaker 13: patre dollars right into the raning Coffers.

502
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:11,720
Speaker 2: Talked to us, what the futures market what are the

503
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:13,959
Speaker 2: Chevron Ceo came out yesterday and said, hey, I can

504
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 2: see it going to one hundred and seventy bucks, but

505
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 2: he says, I don't think this goes below one hundred

506
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 2: dollars until twenty twenty seven. What's the future's market telling

507
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 2: us right now of what? Because the oil and gas

508
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 2: market is one that's got a lot of information out there,

509
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 2: Clearly somebody had some information before President Trump came out

510
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 2: and made that statement. I'm sure that's going to be investigated.

511
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 2: Five hundred and eighty million dollars of trades minutes before that,

512
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 2: quite frankly, the kind of shock announcement that said, hey,

513
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 2: we're looking to were looking to talk to somebody because

514
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 2: we've degraded their military so much, it's time to time

515
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 2: to move on. What are the future markets telling us

516
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 2: right now about what they think about the possibilities negotiations?

517
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 2: Because Kurt said, hey, look, this is not particularly easy.

518
00:32:57,080 --> 00:33:00,120
Speaker 2: They don't really trust us. They're they're backed in to

519
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 2: a corner. They're either a rabbit dog or rabbit rat,

520
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 2: or are grizzly right. They know that if if their

521
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 2: people turn on them, they're done. So they're going to

522
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 2: fight to the end. It's not easy. Present drums a

523
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 2: master deal maker, but it ain't easy when you really

524
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 2: don't have anybody totally in charge to negotiate with. So

525
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 2: are the market does that incorporate into the markets right now?

526
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 13: It is in the way the futures market works in

527
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 13: the oil is you can take delivery, you can buy

528
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 13: delivery going forward. And I looked at it yesterday, or

529
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 13: I'll look again, but it's within striking range of an

530
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 13: eighty dollars a barrel about ten months down the road,

531
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 13: so into twenty twenty seven. Right at twenty twenty seven,

532
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 13: you're looking at eighty dollars a barrel. If everything stayed

533
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 13: the same. Right now we're talking ninety ninety three dollars

534
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 13: a barrel. Now, if it goes higher, those back months,

535
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 13: those future delivery months will continue to raise with it.

536
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 13: But right now, the futures aren't saying it's going to

537
00:33:56,480 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 13: last you know, six, eight, ten months, and they've priced

538
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 13: in a lower.

539
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,120
Speaker 5: Oil price going forward.

540
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 13: So the belief right now is this is a a

541
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 13: now event, and that Trump could ramp up production, ramp

542
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 13: up ways to bring oil prices down, and he can

543
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 13: and he will when he's done. But Steve, we've been

544
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 13: saying this, like I hate to say, we've been saying,

545
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 13: but we have. It depends how high it goes and

546
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:24,760
Speaker 13: how long it stays there, how quickly.

547
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 2: But these very sophistically yeah, yeah, but these very sophisticated

548
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,640
Speaker 2: markets with tons of trading about people trying to hedge

549
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 2: the future, not just speculators. They're telling us that they

550
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 2: believe right now President Trump will not just get some

551
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:42,840
Speaker 2: military accomplishment, but will bring some sort of peace or

552
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 2: get some sort of deal that will get back to normal.

553
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 2: That it won't be one twenty, won't be one fifty.

554
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:50,359
Speaker 2: It'll be eighty, which is obviously a lot higher than

555
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 2: the fifty five I think that we had when BB

556
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 2: went to mar Lago in December. Right, But it's it's

557
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 2: not the end of the world, correct.

558
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 5: Correct, correct, And then that will just itself.

559
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:03,839
Speaker 13: Well, it's based a lot on front month as well,

560
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 13: But the point is it's not two hundred dollars a

561
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 13: barrel a year from now. They're believing eighty dollars a

562
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,080
Speaker 13: barrel a year from Now, these are traders.

563
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:13,720
Speaker 5: And when I say traders, I don't mean speculators everyone

564
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 5: loves to hate.

565
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 13: I'm talking about the people like the Conico Phillips head

566
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,600
Speaker 13: trader that I spoke to, who had similar assessment of

567
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 13: the situation that the Chevron CEO who came out yesterday saying,

568
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:28,799
Speaker 13: so they're looking for higher prices going forward, which will

569
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:32,800
Speaker 13: pull up that ten eleven to twelve month oil price

570
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,319
Speaker 13: will pull it up higher as well. Again, that's why

571
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,359
Speaker 13: I keep saying it matters how high it goes, how

572
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 13: long it stays there, because people are smart enough to

573
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 13: realize it takes time to ramp up production, to get deliveries,

574
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 13: to get deliveries flowing quickly, and to ramp up your

575
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 13: own let's call it counter high prices policy here in

576
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:55,920
Speaker 13: the United States. I'm sure Trump will throw everything, including

577
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 13: the kitchen sink at it, but that takes time. Unfortunately,

578
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 13: the worst fallout of all of this is Middle Eastern

579
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:06,560
Speaker 13: countries who frankly hate us, even though they pretend to

580
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 13: be our allies. Their coffers, they're war coffers, Their anti

581
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:13,839
Speaker 13: West coffers are being filled. The longer we play this game,

582
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 13: and it really has become a game because you can

583
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:20,760
Speaker 13: get in, get out, make your deal kind of strong

584
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 13: deal going forward a lot quicker than.

585
00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 5: We're doing it right now.

586
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 2: Hang on one second, Kurt, Let's go back to the negotiations.

587
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 2: I mean, one of the issues is who's actually got

588
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,359
Speaker 2: stroke over there? Who can you actually make it, Who

589
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,840
Speaker 2: can you actually negotiate with that can deliver it. Like

590
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 2: I said, there's a lot of different things going on.

591
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:42,319
Speaker 2: A lot of Arab nations are jumping in this. They're

592
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:46,840
Speaker 2: all volunteering to host something. President Trump, in the search

593
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 2: for alternatives, wants to make sure this is meaningful. He's saying,

594
00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 2: the guys, and it looks like that was the Pakistani

595
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 2: with the Speaker of the House. He already said, hey,

596
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:59,280
Speaker 2: we've got general agreement on a fifteen at least fifteen

597
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 2: points of twenty or twenty five. Your thoughts about that,

598
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 2: because it's pretty obvious. I think a lot of the

599
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 2: Iranians say, hey, look, the Americans and the Israelis just

600
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 2: got another you know this, another delay tactic until you

601
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 2: get the Marines in so they can bring combat troops

602
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 2: in to seize our ability to monetize anything.

603
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 12: Sir, Yeah, I suppose I mean, my basic cut is

604
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:26,320
Speaker 12: that they're going to have to deal with the Iranians

605
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 12: the way that the Iranians are going to insist on

606
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 12: dealing with it. I mean, the raw reality is not

607
00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:35,840
Speaker 12: that much has changed, and so some of the circulated

608
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 12: proposals from the administration that have been leaked to places

609
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 12: like Axios are the same set of demands. Zero enrichment,

610
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:47,759
Speaker 12: no ballistic missiles. These are things that the regime would

611
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 12: rather fight and die over than concede. If they have

612
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 12: an actual olive branch to the Iranians, that will be

613
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 12: a better deal than Obama JCPOA. They can end this war,

614
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 12: but it involves saying know to the Israelis as opposed

615
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 12: as as far as who they should deal with. I mean, look,

616
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 12: they're going to send out Arachi, the Foreign Minister. Arachi

617
00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 12: is an ambitious figure. I think he wants to be

618
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:13,839
Speaker 12: the next president of Iran. Has been reported this week

619
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 12: of the Journal by Lawrence Norman and others. You know,

620
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 12: that's who you have to deal with. It is opposed

621
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 12: to trying to find someone in the junta to deal with.

622
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 12: I mean, the reality is a lot of these people

623
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:26,279
Speaker 12: don't speak English, you know. I don't think the administration

624
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 12: should try to circumvent the Iranian process. Frankly, if they

625
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 12: have a serious offer to end this war, they should

626
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:34,879
Speaker 12: extend it. If they don't, they should come home. I mean,

627
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 12: to an extent, negotiations themselves may be provocative if the

628
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 12: if President Trump just declares victory we took out the

629
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:44,799
Speaker 12: Supreme Leader and announces that we are withdrawing, I think

630
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:48,279
Speaker 12: back in cool tensions, it won't satisfy our partners quote

631
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:51,840
Speaker 12: unquote in Israel. But this war is not ending until

632
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 12: the President says no to net Yahoo.

633
00:38:56,480 --> 00:39:00,319
Speaker 2: The another aspect, and this is what treat A keeps

634
00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 2: saying on it when he's posting on Twitter that the uh,

635
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 2: the runnings. Also, besides all those kind of military aspects,

636
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 2: they're insisting upon sanctions relief and the reasons they've got

637
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:14,840
Speaker 2: to get sanctions relief. Without sanctions relief, Without sanctions relief,

638
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 2: they are absolutely no cash. Is that going to be

639
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 2: a central part of this negotiation because I don't see

640
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 2: how President Trump gives them relief on sanctions, right, because

641
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 2: sanctions brought up to their knees and made him as

642
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 2: weak as possible.

643
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 12: Go ahead, sir, They've always lived in sanctions relief right

644
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 12: to get more oil onto the to the market for

645
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 12: loosening the sanctions in order to bomb them, right, I

646
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 12: mean it's it's yes, Doctor Strange was yes, right, yeah,

647
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 12: So I mean I think we've already created the practice. Sorry,

648
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 12: we've already created the president. Right, So so I think, uh,

649
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 12: I think.

650
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 2: That house there's presidents that I can get this done

651
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,319
Speaker 2: in five days? Is the Irane Are the Iranians sitting

652
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 2: there going Trump is a smart as they get. What

653
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:03,960
Speaker 2: he wants is his two marine amphibio, his two marine

654
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 2: exhibition units to show up. Then he's got five thousand

655
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:10,000
Speaker 2: combat troops, the eighty second Airborne. He can take the

656
00:40:10,040 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 2: coasts down by Hormuz. He can get rid of the

657
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:14,919
Speaker 2: those are kind of Arabs and even Persians down there.

658
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:17,280
Speaker 2: He can get rid of those guys in take Cargo Island,

659
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 2: cut us off from everything, and then we're toast. Do

660
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 2: you think that's going through their mind that they understand that.

661
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what, stick through the break. I want

662
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 2: to get to this on the other side now more

663
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 2: than ever, I think it's important for you to talk

664
00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:32,240
Speaker 2: to the folks at birch Gold. We're in a world

665
00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 2: of turbulence. The Cuttery Energy minister just said moments ago

666
00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 2: that if this war is not wrapped up by the

667
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 2: end of the week, all exports out of the Persian

668
00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 2: Gulf of energy and all of it's formed will cease.

669
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:51,240
Speaker 2: Of course, the Cutteries are great at playing both sides

670
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 2: against the metal.

671
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:53,839
Speaker 7: It's on the.

672
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:57,439
Speaker 2: Treacherous aspects of this war. In the golf short commercial break,

673
00:40:58,080 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 2: Birch Golf talking Philipatrins team.

674
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,839
Speaker 5: Today here's your host, Stephen k Ban.

675
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 2: Okay, guys, thank you for doing this this morning again

676
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 2: to keep this audience ahead of the curve, as you

677
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:15,759
Speaker 2: guys do days ahead the curve. Eric, I'm gonna let

678
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 2: you go. But like I said, Qatar energy minister just

679
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 2: warned that this war will force all golf, all golf

680
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 2: nations to stop energy exports within days. Now. I assume

681
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 2: he's even talking about the five million barrels a day

682
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 2: going from Saudi Arabia through the pipeline into the to

683
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 2: the Red Sea outlet. But it's kind of general. But

684
00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 2: that's a pretty stark warning for President Trump to deal

685
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:43,040
Speaker 2: with well.

686
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:47,319
Speaker 13: Indeed, and because we know that the Iranians will do

687
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 13: whatever it takes to keep keep it going. And they're

688
00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 13: they're getting a war given and based on these what

689
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 13: what's happening so far? Seeing oil prices double more than

690
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 13: the double now of course, and and like you, Saidee,

691
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:00,840
Speaker 13: the these Middle East, and she's who claim to be

692
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 13: our friend, Saudi Qatar. I mean really, Cutter has been

693
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:06,600
Speaker 13: all over the board with as far as terrorism and friendly.

694
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 5: To the United States, all over the board. They're not.

695
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 5: They're not our friends there.

696
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 13: They're interested in the They would love to see a

697
00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 13: two hundred dollars price tag for oil. Any force measures

698
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 13: they can do, and any online production that they can

699
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 13: pull offline because of some sort of attack on infrastructure somewhere,

700
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:25,440
Speaker 13: they'll do it, and they'll be slow to pull it

701
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 13: back up. I'm not sure one hundred percent hault is possible,

702
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:31,239
Speaker 13: but a fifty percent haul with drive prices too, three

703
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:33,480
Speaker 13: hundred dollars a barrel, ten dollars a gallon of gasoline

704
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:38,440
Speaker 13: that they have, They've gotten America's Achilles, but in their

705
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 13: hand right now, and I've seen it.

706
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 5: You've seen it, and I'm just not.

707
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 13: Sure why anyone else isn't seeing it right now that

708
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 13: let's get the hell out of there, let's cut up

709
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 13: in the international deal that's that's got teeth, and let's

710
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 13: get the hell out of the Middle East and let

711
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 13: them let them blow each other up instead of like

712
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 13: they used to do, instead of us.

713
00:42:59,200 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 2: Where people go to get your to get all your

714
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 2: contents are well.

715
00:43:04,040 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 13: At Eric Bowling on across social media. At the Edge

716
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,760
Speaker 13: on YouTube is a new show that we're doing. But Steve,

717
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:11,359
Speaker 13: you guys, your audience is amazing. You jump on every

718
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 13: time we come on. But the biggest plus for me

719
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 13: is when we do the four o'clock at RAV into

720
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:19,280
Speaker 13: your five o'clock show, that's where you're really.

721
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 5: Going to get.

722
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 13: You get a lot of you, a lot of opinion,

723
00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 13: you a lot of markets. You understand a lot about

724
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:26,359
Speaker 13: the oil markets and the effect on the economy four

725
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 13: and then you just get the geo politics like nobody's

726
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:32,840
Speaker 13: business at five. So I think people are pretty pretty

727
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:36,759
Speaker 13: well serviced between four and six pm every day on RAV.

728
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:41,319
Speaker 2: Thank you, Thank you brother, thank you for coming on

729
00:43:41,360 --> 00:43:42,839
Speaker 2: doing the morning show. I know you guys are busy.

730
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 2: Thank you, sir Kurt. You've done a good job of

731
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:49,800
Speaker 2: framing this so people can to understand how things develop.

732
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 2: So give us your best shot here, President Trump, day

733
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 2: two of his trying to look through various alternatives, where

734
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 2: you have a cornered enemy that is experts in asymmetric warfare,

735
00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 2: and they're sitting there going, hey, the Marines are heading here.

736
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 2: And once he's got the Marines, you know, maybe the

737
00:44:08,760 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 2: eighty second Airborne, he's got another error in the quiver.

738
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 2: In addition to Howard's getting hammered every night, your thoughts are.

739
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:22,400
Speaker 12: He is going to be the subject of a pressure

740
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:25,520
Speaker 12: campaign led by the Israelis and their allies in the

741
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 12: United States to quote, finish the job. These are the

742
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:31,439
Speaker 12: same people that would say that the US didn't stay

743
00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:34,360
Speaker 12: in Vietnam long enough, and that the only problem with

744
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 12: the Iraq Wars that we didn't stay longer. The only

745
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 12: problem with Afghanistan is that we didn't stay longer. You

746
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 12: see it playing out in the op ed pages of

747
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 12: the Wall Street Journal, you see it on Fox News,

748
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:46,720
Speaker 12: you see it in anything that's part of the Rupert

749
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 12: Murdoch empire. They are going to drive Trump to try

750
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:52,800
Speaker 12: to do a larger war.

751
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:56,839
Speaker 2: Okay, Everett, but hang on, hang on when they when

752
00:44:56,840 --> 00:45:00,040
Speaker 2: they say finish the job, right, because you've seen what

753
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,200
Speaker 2: the President said, and he's been very vocal in the

754
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:04,320
Speaker 2: last twenty four hours while he's going to Memphis on

755
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:07,880
Speaker 2: the tarmac. I mean that is Trump in deal mode.

756
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:10,440
Speaker 2: When you say finished the when they come to him

757
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 2: and say finish the job, put some substance on that.

758
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:15,840
Speaker 2: What do they mean? What are they telling him to

759
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:18,279
Speaker 2: finish the job, Because there's got to be some specifics

760
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:21,920
Speaker 2: there for him. He goes back and says, hey, look,

761
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:24,799
Speaker 2: I'd laid out and remember the White House made a

762
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 2: big pivot yesterday. They said we no longer refer to

763
00:45:27,560 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 2: this as war. We've always referred to this as a

764
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:34,360
Speaker 2: military operation. The sencom Admiral Cooper In the Chairman of

765
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:37,440
Speaker 2: the Joint Chiefs, his senior military advisor, ha been very

766
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:43,359
Speaker 2: specific about the military objectives of the military operation. And

767
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 2: if you talk to President Trump right now, you call

768
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 2: him and said, hey, look, navy's gone, air force has gone,

769
00:45:47,719 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 2: air defense is essentially gone. I'm taking care of the

770
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:54,359
Speaker 2: industrial capacity. I'm not taught touching as they told him.

771
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 2: I'm not going to touch the energy infrastructure. I'm not

772
00:45:57,440 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 2: going to touch the grid of as much as we

773
00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:03,440
Speaker 2: can avoid it. So when others come to him, And

774
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 2: clearly the Israelis have a broader war that they're fighting.

775
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 2: We just heard McMasters say they took out a couple

776
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 2: of Russian ships. Are hit Russian ships in the Caspian

777
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 2: Sea that were supposedly bringing drones in to help the

778
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 2: help the Revolutionary Guard, and they're and they're now you know,

779
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 2: commencing looks like a major combined arms, both air and

780
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 2: land campaign in against the proxies of Hesbla in southern Lebanon.

781
00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:31,839
Speaker 2: But when somebody calls him up and says, hey, look,

782
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:33,920
Speaker 2: you don't don't listen all this stuff. Don't listen to

783
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 2: all market finish the job. What does finished the job mean?

784
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 12: They want regime change, whatever it takes. I mean, and

785
00:46:41,360 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 12: the the allies who support this, and Trump's allies who

786
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 12: support this, can call whatever they want. I saw that

787
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 12: he hewit with Tom Cotton yesterday called the Iraq War

788
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:54,200
Speaker 12: a battle. He called the Gulf War a battle. So

789
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:56,320
Speaker 12: I'm not really sure he's being served by the advice

790
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:59,279
Speaker 12: he's getting. The American people are gonna are going to

791
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,239
Speaker 12: conclude right that this is a war. And I think

792
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:05,120
Speaker 12: that if President Trump doesn't want his entire legacy to

793
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 12: be about nation building and cleaning up the mess that

794
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 12: the Israelis want in Iran. He should declare victory and

795
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 12: come home.

796
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:17,360
Speaker 2: Kurt Mails, where do people go? You're there. You're in

797
00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 2: the lineage of Pat Buchanan. You're the editor in chief

798
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:26,360
Speaker 2: of his beloved newspaper magazine website American Conservative.

799
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 12: Where they go American Conservative dot com is founded by

800
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:34,359
Speaker 12: Patent others in two thousand and two against the Iraq War.

801
00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:37,399
Speaker 12: We are covering this wire to wire and we are

802
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 12: doing our best to contain the damage.

803
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 5: Of this Iran war. Thank you.

804
00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 2: Okay, listen up, kurk q Hewitt said, it's the Iraq Battle.

805
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 2: I don't know if I tell the I don't know

806
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:52,720
Speaker 2: if I tell the veterans of that ten year conflict

807
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 2: or eleven year conflict or nine year conflict which we're

808
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 2: still there, by the way.

809
00:47:57,600 --> 00:48:01,320
Speaker 12: No, they called the war that it was about. Great

810
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:03,239
Speaker 12: Battle is what they called it. That's what that's uh.

811
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 12: The twenties they were calling it the Great Battle the

812
00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:06,400
Speaker 12: Hemingway generation.

813
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:12,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Great Battle, sir. Thank you so much, Kurt Mills,

814
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 2: look forward to having you back.

815
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 5: Thanks.

816
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:16,879
Speaker 2: We're going to take Natasha Owens is going to take

817
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:22,319
Speaker 2: us out we come back. Is America driving off a

818
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 2: physical cliff? I think we've talked about that a couple

819
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 2: three times on this show. The stark reality that the

820
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:32,400
Speaker 2: political class in Washington, d c. Just wants to avoid

821
00:48:32,560 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 2: over and over and over again. How long can we

822
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 2: actually avoid it until tough changes, tough calls, tough decisions

823
00:48:42,120 --> 00:48:46,319
Speaker 2: have to be made. Neil Irwin from Axios. Next in

824
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:51,120
Speaker 2: the war room. You know you still need help from

825
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:54,520
Speaker 2: the boss. We need help from the boss.