1
00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:13,000
Speaker 1: What's up, boys and girls? How are you welcome to

2
00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:15,280
Speaker 1: the Saturday morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast. I'm

3
00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:17,360
Speaker 1: your host, Matt Parolt here off Bettingpros dot com. This

4
00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:19,400
Speaker 1: thing's all being brought to you by our friends at

5
00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:22,880
Speaker 1: bet MGM. All right, so, not a great night last night.

6
00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:27,400
Speaker 1: Fifteen fifteen and one. Really it's a sixteen and fifteen

7
00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,720
Speaker 1: depending on where you got that one over bet for

8
00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:32,680
Speaker 1: the second period. I told you to bet it at

9
00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:35,400
Speaker 1: one and a half. I bet at two. You cashed.

10
00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:36,720
Speaker 1: If you had it at one and a half, you

11
00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:39,360
Speaker 1: got to push at two. I took the plus money

12
00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:41,159
Speaker 1: at plus one ten, but I took it. I told

13
00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:42,960
Speaker 1: you to bet it at my at one and a

14
00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:46,519
Speaker 1: half for that second period. In that crazy game yesterday

15
00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:49,199
Speaker 1: between two teams that I didn't think would score a

16
00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:52,040
Speaker 1: ton as much as they did in Dallas and Colorado,

17
00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:54,680
Speaker 1: I thought the first game seven last night would look

18
00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:56,480
Speaker 1: more like the second game seven, which was a three

19
00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:58,360
Speaker 1: nothing victory for Vegas. But pretty much it was a

20
00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,800
Speaker 1: one nothing game and then empty neck goals came in

21
00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,000
Speaker 1: and were scored. How did Vegas cash the puck line?

22
00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:06,959
Speaker 1: I almost bet that we took the over didn't happen.

23
00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:10,720
Speaker 1: Vegas scored their three goals, but nothing as Robin Leonard

24
00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:14,520
Speaker 1: plays incredibly well. Five shutouts now in his last six games.

25
00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:17,920
Speaker 1: Five shutouts of Robin Leonard, three in that series against

26
00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:20,920
Speaker 1: the Vancouver Canucks. My gosh, sorry, Marc Andre Fleury, you

27
00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:23,959
Speaker 1: were not playing anymore for the Figas Golden Knights this year.

28
00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,720
Speaker 1: That is Robin Leonard's team into the Western Conference Finals,

29
00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,840
Speaker 1: the Vegas Golden Knights go. We got the Miami Heat right,

30
00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:32,360
Speaker 1: which was good. We got the Blue Jays right, which

31
00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,040
Speaker 1: was good, but then everything else kind of went to crap.

32
00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,080
Speaker 1: So a two four and one or three and four

33
00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,560
Speaker 1: day either or it's a losing day for us, losing

34
00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:42,520
Speaker 1: on the juice, losing units as well, so not what

35
00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:45,480
Speaker 1: we want. We're down about two and a half units

36
00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:48,200
Speaker 1: here on the week. We were up, you know, a

37
00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:50,760
Speaker 1: pretty good number, ten point one units last week. So

38
00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:52,720
Speaker 1: we're looking at you know, we're over the last two weeks.

39
00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:55,240
Speaker 1: We're still pretty up, but not good this week. So

40
00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,480
Speaker 1: let's get some picks. Let's get some plays. I've got

41
00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:02,520
Speaker 1: two college football plays, I've got two NBA plays, I

42
00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:05,560
Speaker 1: have one Derby pick, and I have one play on

43
00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:07,800
Speaker 1: hockey that I want to get to here this morning

44
00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:09,960
Speaker 1: for the Daily Juice. So we got a bunch of

45
00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:11,639
Speaker 1: things we want to break down, bunch of games we

46
00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:13,400
Speaker 1: want to talk about. So I don't want to spend

47
00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:15,280
Speaker 1: too much time here breaking down last night. I want

48
00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:16,840
Speaker 1: to get to the picks, get to the plays. But

49
00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,639
Speaker 1: let's definitely talk about using that deposit bonus match from

50
00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:25,400
Speaker 1: bet MGM right now, using the code juice bet MGM Sports.

51
00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,240
Speaker 1: One of you guys dm me this week and said, Matt,

52
00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:30,480
Speaker 1: is this still available? And I said, yes, it's still

53
00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:35,160
Speaker 1: available in Nevada, Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, West Virginia. Bet MGM,

54
00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:37,120
Speaker 1: you go get the app. You're going to go in

55
00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:41,480
Speaker 1: download the app Betmgmsports. You're going to go to betmgm

56
00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,040
Speaker 1: dot com. You're going to get the application. And when

57
00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:46,520
Speaker 1: you go for your first deposit, you use the bonus

58
00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:49,640
Speaker 1: code Juice. When you deposit five hundred, they give you

59
00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,560
Speaker 1: five hundred, deposit one hundred, they give you hundred. It's

60
00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,760
Speaker 1: free money. It's really cool. Take advantage of it right

61
00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:59,040
Speaker 1: now as we start college football and the NFL starts

62
00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,040
Speaker 1: next week. I mean, come on, you're going to be

63
00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:03,480
Speaker 1: gambling a lot. Right, it's football. Okay, we're in football

64
00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:05,880
Speaker 1: season now. It is go time for us as gamblers.

65
00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:08,680
Speaker 1: Why not take advantage of this really cool deposit bonus

66
00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,520
Speaker 1: from BETMGM. It's a huge thank you to them for

67
00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,160
Speaker 1: sponsoring the podcast. It's a great way of saying thanks

68
00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:15,720
Speaker 1: to me. If you like what we do, if you

69
00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:18,000
Speaker 1: enjoy the podcast, you enjoy what we're doing here each

70
00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:19,880
Speaker 1: and every morning. This is a great way of saying

71
00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:23,280
Speaker 1: thank you. Going get into betmgm account, download its, load

72
00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:27,080
Speaker 1: its and use that bonus code juice. Visit betmgm dot

73
00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,080
Speaker 1: com for terms and conditions. You must be twenty one

74
00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:31,920
Speaker 1: years or older. Must be physically located in Colorado, Indiana,

75
00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:35,400
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Nevada, or West Virginia. Please gamble responsibly, and

76
00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:37,280
Speaker 1: if you do have a gambling problem, called one eight

77
00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:40,320
Speaker 1: hundred five two to two forty seven hundred in Colorado

78
00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:43,160
Speaker 1: and Nevada, one hundred gambler in New Jersey, in West

79
00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:46,680
Speaker 1: Virginia or one eight hundred with it. All right, let's

80
00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:49,920
Speaker 1: start with college football today. Because we've not made any

81
00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:53,800
Speaker 1: picks in college football. This one is a little ugly

82
00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:58,840
Speaker 1: because of the number. All right, twenty three SMU is

83
00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:03,240
Speaker 1: laying twenty three point against Texas State. But something happened

84
00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:09,160
Speaker 1: before this game yesterday that I think is significant. SMU's

85
00:04:09,200 --> 00:04:13,000
Speaker 1: game against TCU a rematch from last year, or SMU

86
00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:17,800
Speaker 1: beat TCU at TCU. It was a gigantic upset TCU

87
00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:20,440
Speaker 1: at the time they were ranked. A lot of people

88
00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:24,120
Speaker 1: thought that SMU would overlook Texas State to look ahead

89
00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:28,040
Speaker 1: to that game against TCU. Guess what happened. The TCU

90
00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:31,800
Speaker 1: game was canceled COVID nineteen, our first cancelation. We got

91
00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:33,320
Speaker 1: to get used to this. There's gonna be a lot

92
00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:38,640
Speaker 1: of them COVID nineteen testing positive players for TCU, SMU, TCU.

93
00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:43,640
Speaker 1: That game's off. So we have a focused SMU. We

94
00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,800
Speaker 1: have Seane Buchelle coming back. We've got a guy who

95
00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:50,039
Speaker 1: threw for almost four thousand yards thirty four touchdowns. He

96
00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,320
Speaker 1: ripped a part college football. They had ten wins last year.

97
00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:57,719
Speaker 1: This is a high flying offense. Poor Texas State, man,

98
00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:00,679
Speaker 1: they're going to get their doors blown off. I'm gonna

99
00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:03,279
Speaker 1: lay the twenty three points here. I'm gonna go with

100
00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:06,800
Speaker 1: the guy who is gonna put up big numbers. I mean,

101
00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:11,120
Speaker 1: they defeated Texas State forty seven to seventeen last year.

102
00:05:11,320 --> 00:05:13,799
Speaker 1: This is a guy in Bouschelle who transferred from Texas

103
00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,240
Speaker 1: who's been putting up huge numbers in sunny decks offense.

104
00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:18,760
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna run up and down the field here.

105
00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:22,200
Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay the twenty three points SMU minus twenty

106
00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:25,680
Speaker 1: three to rip apart Texas State. Look the weather, there

107
00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:28,000
Speaker 1: might be some rain. I don't care. I'm not too

108
00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:30,800
Speaker 1: worried about the rain. This is a huge game for SMU.

109
00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:34,000
Speaker 1: Now to focus and unload because no game against TCU.

110
00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,080
Speaker 1: Full attention on Texas Tech. Let's lay the points here,

111
00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:41,440
Speaker 1: SMU minus twenty three, lay it big number. But I

112
00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:43,560
Speaker 1: think SMU with that offense puts up a lot of

113
00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:49,200
Speaker 1: points against Texas State. Blowout SMU minus twenty three second game.

114
00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:52,760
Speaker 1: And this one's a little bit stickier, okay, because I

115
00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:55,000
Speaker 1: know a lot of people, a lot of sharp people

116
00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:58,320
Speaker 1: are on Middle Tennessee State plus three and a half.

117
00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:01,880
Speaker 1: All right, the line down to three, which I like

118
00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:06,200
Speaker 1: it better At three, I'm taking Army. Okay, Army was

119
00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,080
Speaker 1: five and eight last year. But here's my thought process

120
00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:11,839
Speaker 1: on this game. This is going to be a fourth

121
00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,360
Speaker 1: quarter game. In a ball control game for Army, they

122
00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:19,480
Speaker 1: run the triple option. Conditioning shouldn't be a problem for Army, right,

123
00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:22,599
Speaker 1: I mean, these guys are cadets, these guys are in

124
00:06:22,640 --> 00:06:24,960
Speaker 1: the military. These guys get up in the morning, they run,

125
00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:28,720
Speaker 1: they work out a ton. They're in their own bubble. Literally, Army, Navy,

126
00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:30,800
Speaker 1: the academies have it. They have their own bubble. Right,

127
00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:33,880
Speaker 1: They've kept COVID nineteen away. This is a game where

128
00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:38,240
Speaker 1: I think Army in the fourth quarter, using their running attack,

129
00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:41,440
Speaker 1: using ball control, I just think they're going to be

130
00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:44,600
Speaker 1: able to run off a couple of really long drives

131
00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:47,800
Speaker 1: keep the football away from Middle Tennessee State. And I

132
00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:49,560
Speaker 1: don't think the Blue Raiders are going to come in

133
00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,400
Speaker 1: here and throw up a ton of points. Army's defense

134
00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:54,599
Speaker 1: is not that good, Okay, I understand that that's the

135
00:06:54,640 --> 00:06:57,520
Speaker 1: big fear. And you've got a quarterback for Middle Tenzee

136
00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:01,440
Speaker 1: State who's put up some big numbers O'Hara, who had

137
00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:04,559
Speaker 1: over a thousand yards rushing, two six hundred yards, passing

138
00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:07,600
Speaker 1: twenty touchdowns to eight picks. I mean, I have a

139
00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:09,640
Speaker 1: lean on the over I don't hate the over here,

140
00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:12,200
Speaker 1: but I do think Army in the fourth quarter. I

141
00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:14,320
Speaker 1: think they make more plays, and a lot of people

142
00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:16,800
Speaker 1: do like MTSU. I'm not going to debate that. I

143
00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:19,280
Speaker 1: am kind of going against the grain here. I just

144
00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:22,880
Speaker 1: think early in the year, conditioning and then trying to

145
00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:25,320
Speaker 1: stop the triple option in your first game, that's not

146
00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,960
Speaker 1: fun to do. Man, that is hard to do when

147
00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:30,920
Speaker 1: you have to play assignment football early out of the gate,

148
00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:33,560
Speaker 1: in the heat in your first game. I don't know.

149
00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:35,000
Speaker 1: I mean, we just don't know how much of these

150
00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:37,320
Speaker 1: teams have been practicing. We don't know what MTSU has

151
00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:40,600
Speaker 1: been doing. Really, how many contact practices did they have,

152
00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:43,080
Speaker 1: and you know, what was their off season conditioning, Like

153
00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:46,080
Speaker 1: we know what Army does. So I just think in

154
00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:48,400
Speaker 1: the same thing we'll talk about Navy tomorrow. I just

155
00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:50,680
Speaker 1: think that there are games here early in the year

156
00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,640
Speaker 1: where the military academies have a big advantage because they

157
00:07:53,760 --> 00:07:55,840
Speaker 1: run a type of offense that's very tough to stop.

158
00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:59,200
Speaker 1: Conditioning weather and early on with COVID nineteen issues for

159
00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:01,720
Speaker 1: working out and whatnot. I'm gonna lay the three points here.

160
00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:07,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say Army minus three to win and beat MTSU.

161
00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:10,960
Speaker 1: So first game SMU in a route over Texas State

162
00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:14,800
Speaker 1: at minus twenty three Army in a close game. But

163
00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,400
Speaker 1: I think they do cover that three point line. Army

164
00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:22,560
Speaker 1: minus three taking on MTSU. Okay, I'm gonna give you

165
00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,840
Speaker 1: a Kentucky Derby pick, but I'm talking about this is

166
00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:29,000
Speaker 1: zero point two five units. Okay, this is a quarter unit.

167
00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:32,720
Speaker 1: This is a flyer fun bet. I know nothing about

168
00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:35,120
Speaker 1: horse racing. All that I know is that I asked

169
00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:38,080
Speaker 1: a dude who does know something about horse racing, and

170
00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,480
Speaker 1: he said, after the Oaks and the oaks, how fast

171
00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,920
Speaker 1: the oaks ran? That the track is fast at Kentucky,

172
00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:48,800
Speaker 1: and these horses are older because this thing. Remember, we're

173
00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:51,199
Speaker 1: supposed to be running in May. So the horses who

174
00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:54,360
Speaker 1: are really fast in May are even faster here in September.

175
00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:57,640
Speaker 1: And tis the law is going to set a record

176
00:08:57,679 --> 00:09:02,000
Speaker 1: potentially at the Kentucky Derby. Again, I don't have much

177
00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:04,800
Speaker 1: interest in the Derby. I don't know a lot about

178
00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:06,679
Speaker 1: the Derby. I'm not gonna sit here and tell you

179
00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:09,360
Speaker 1: that I've handicapped this race, and I've got a bunch

180
00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:13,720
Speaker 1: of ideas and angles. My first wager ever was at

181
00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:17,520
Speaker 1: a racetrack with my grandfather, who's now deceased. But he

182
00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:20,440
Speaker 1: took me to Rockingham Park in Salem, New Hampshire, and

183
00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:22,480
Speaker 1: that's where I placed my first bet as an eleven

184
00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:25,719
Speaker 1: year old. I will play at a quarter unit. I'm

185
00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:28,000
Speaker 1: gonna go ahead and take the horse that everyone thinks

186
00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:31,200
Speaker 1: it's the betting favorite. He's gonna be very very fast,

187
00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:34,760
Speaker 1: and tis the law at three to five. Wherever you

188
00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:36,959
Speaker 1: get him betting favorite, we'll see where the odds are

189
00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:40,320
Speaker 1: where he goes off. But quarter unit Flyer on the

190
00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:44,400
Speaker 1: favorite to come through here. He drew the seventeenth post position,

191
00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:46,920
Speaker 1: which is not good. It's never produced a winner, so

192
00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,800
Speaker 1: people have kind of said that's really bad. I don't know.

193
00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:53,000
Speaker 1: He's been dominant. Everyone's told me he's just ripped apart people.

194
00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,400
Speaker 1: So it doesn't matter where he is because he's so fast,

195
00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:57,480
Speaker 1: he's gonna be able to run through it most likely

196
00:09:57,679 --> 00:09:59,920
Speaker 1: gonna be the winner. So we're taking tis the la

197
00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:03,040
Speaker 1: aw to win the Kentucky Derby. Is that smart? I

198
00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,640
Speaker 1: have no idea because I don't know nothing about horse racing,

199
00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:07,200
Speaker 1: but that's what I was told by a guy who's

200
00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:08,720
Speaker 1: had to go bet test tis the law. So if

201
00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:10,320
Speaker 1: you want to have some fun like me, and you

202
00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:12,640
Speaker 1: want to throw a quarter unit down here on the

203
00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:15,520
Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby. You to have something to watch as the

204
00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:18,120
Speaker 1: fastest two minutes of sports goes off, coming up on

205
00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:21,240
Speaker 1: Saturday from Kentucky in September, which is so weird, no fans,

206
00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,800
Speaker 1: it was odd watching the Oaks. I don't know, but

207
00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:26,160
Speaker 1: I like whiskey, so I'll drink a couple of any

208
00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:30,040
Speaker 1: any excuse to drink whiskey, I'm in. Any excuses to

209
00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:32,640
Speaker 1: drink I'm in dulip Any excuse to go ahead and

210
00:10:32,720 --> 00:10:36,640
Speaker 1: drink an old fashion I'm a Kentucky bourbon, Kentucky whiskey guy,

211
00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:38,920
Speaker 1: so fine, you know, any excuse to drink that, I'm

212
00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:40,360
Speaker 1: good to go. So I'll have some fun watching the

213
00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:43,559
Speaker 1: derby tomorrow. 'tis the law? Is our pick for the Derby?

214
00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,960
Speaker 1: All right? Two plays for basketball? Did anything change with

215
00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:51,360
Speaker 1: Toronto beating the Celtics? Like really? I've been talking to

216
00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:54,079
Speaker 1: a couple of my sports pick friends about this, and

217
00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,280
Speaker 1: I was on a podcast with our friend Dave Sharapan

218
00:10:56,480 --> 00:11:00,480
Speaker 1: over yesterday and or two days ago, and we're having

219
00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:02,400
Speaker 1: a conversation about you know, I was saying, you know,

220
00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:04,760
Speaker 1: what about Toronto? What about momentum. How do you handicap this?

221
00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:06,840
Speaker 1: And he would and really this is with three book

222
00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:09,360
Speaker 1: makers and they also the same thing. Nothing changed just

223
00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,600
Speaker 1: because that shot went down. Nothing changed. Boston still should

224
00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:14,439
Speaker 1: have won that game. They fell asleep three point and

225
00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:16,640
Speaker 1: went in. But Boston did not play very well, and

226
00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:18,520
Speaker 1: yet they still should be up. They should be three.

227
00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:21,960
Speaker 1: Oh okay, So maybe that anger is the Celtics. Maybe

228
00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:25,240
Speaker 1: like focusing them more, Jalen Brown plays better, you still

229
00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,000
Speaker 1: haven't changed the fact that, well, three point shots aren't

230
00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:32,120
Speaker 1: going down. Pascal Siakam has not looked right, so why change?

231
00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:35,040
Speaker 1: Just keep going with Boston and Boston's getting a point,

232
00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:37,360
Speaker 1: so plus one if you want to play Boston on

233
00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:39,320
Speaker 1: the money line, I don't hate that. I'll just take

234
00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:41,760
Speaker 1: the one point in case of another craziness as to

235
00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,560
Speaker 1: what happened in game number three. But I'm gonna take

236
00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,439
Speaker 1: Boston to win Game four and go up three games

237
00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:50,559
Speaker 1: to one, Boston plus the one. I think Jalen Brown's mad.

238
00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:53,760
Speaker 1: I think he's angering and very frustrated at what happened.

239
00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,640
Speaker 1: So I think he's gonna come out flying. I think

240
00:11:56,679 --> 00:11:59,120
Speaker 1: he has a big game look for him. His personal

241
00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:01,800
Speaker 1: totals is scoring totals. I think he has like a

242
00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:04,040
Speaker 1: thirty point game here for Boston. He was really mad

243
00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,320
Speaker 1: after what happened in Game number three, really angry with

244
00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,680
Speaker 1: the defensive lapses and the mistakes. I think Boston bounces back.

245
00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:13,480
Speaker 1: Boston's been playing well as Dog's here in this bubble,

246
00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:15,760
Speaker 1: and Brad Stevens is a really good coach. Nick Nurse

247
00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:17,439
Speaker 1: is a good coach too, but Stevens has been pushing

248
00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:19,480
Speaker 1: some right buttons, and Kemba Walker is a big difference

249
00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:21,640
Speaker 1: maker in that series, so he's been out playing Kyle

250
00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:23,959
Speaker 1: Lowry so far, although Lowry did play well in Game

251
00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:26,520
Speaker 1: number three. So we're gonna take Boston at plus one

252
00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,520
Speaker 1: and then one more play in the NBA before a

253
00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:33,760
Speaker 1: hockey play Clippers and the Nuggets. So clearly I was

254
00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:35,559
Speaker 1: dead wrong taking the Nuggets right, That was a really

255
00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:37,760
Speaker 1: stupid bet. They got killed. I took the plus eight

256
00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:39,800
Speaker 1: and a half plus nine. It was never a game.

257
00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:42,800
Speaker 1: I do think this is going to be more competitive,

258
00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:45,480
Speaker 1: but I do think this game will fit more into

259
00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:47,880
Speaker 1: what Denver wants to do, which is they know they

260
00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,559
Speaker 1: have to run and score to beat the Clippers, and

261
00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,120
Speaker 1: they got to hope that the Clippers don't shoot very well,

262
00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,520
Speaker 1: So I'm not gonna play aside here. I'm just gonna

263
00:12:56,559 --> 00:12:58,640
Speaker 1: go back to the old adage that Denver needs to

264
00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:01,400
Speaker 1: score to win, and I think we're gonna bet the

265
00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:02,880
Speaker 1: over act I think I am. I'm gonna bet the

266
00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:05,320
Speaker 1: over here at two twenty one. I'm gonna bet the

267
00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:08,720
Speaker 1: over for the Clippers and the Denver Nuggets in game

268
00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:11,440
Speaker 1: number two. I'm gonna expect Murray to have a game.

269
00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:13,880
Speaker 1: Yo gets to get going a little bit here. I

270
00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:16,240
Speaker 1: do still think the Clippers win, but I think we're

271
00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:18,280
Speaker 1: gonna see a high scoring game. I think Denver will

272
00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:22,120
Speaker 1: score finally here and hit threes and figure some things out.

273
00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:24,559
Speaker 1: I didn't like Michael Malone's comments get angry at the

274
00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:26,599
Speaker 1: NBA about the family is not being there. That was

275
00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:29,200
Speaker 1: a little weird to get angry now about that. So

276
00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,000
Speaker 1: this is where people aren't focused on the right things,

277
00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:34,480
Speaker 1: much like the Bucks. Like I mean, it's like in

278
00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:37,760
Speaker 1: terms of basketball now, Bucks are distracted for better reasons

279
00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:40,480
Speaker 1: than big society reasons. But you're taking on Jimmy Butler

280
00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:42,640
Speaker 1: in a team that is locked in and focused. We're

281
00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:44,480
Speaker 1: three and oh in that series. Betting on the Heat,

282
00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:48,920
Speaker 1: and I guess one book in the offshore market hung

283
00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:52,440
Speaker 1: the Heat at minus one. I really want to see

284
00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:54,360
Speaker 1: what the Vegas books and we'll get into it tomorrow

285
00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:56,360
Speaker 1: a little bit more. I mean, are the Are the

286
00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:58,680
Speaker 1: Heat finally gonna be favored? Are we finally gonna have

287
00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,000
Speaker 1: to lay some numbers here to bet the Heat? Because

288
00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:05,360
Speaker 1: that series is over? That's over, And I mean I

289
00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:08,000
Speaker 1: hope that the I hope the Heat catch points again.

290
00:14:08,040 --> 00:14:10,960
Speaker 1: It would be awesome to see Miami plus four plus five, like,

291
00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:13,600
Speaker 1: please keep on giving me the same numbers to bet.

292
00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:15,960
Speaker 1: We're three and oh betting it. Let's bet it again.

293
00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:18,000
Speaker 1: If you give me five points to play with four

294
00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:20,800
Speaker 1: points to play with, I'm betting the Heat again here

295
00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:23,800
Speaker 1: to go. If they lose, fine, maybe a last second

296
00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,400
Speaker 1: shot or something. But Giannis and company, they don't have

297
00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:28,360
Speaker 1: a clue how to stop that Heat team. And Jimmy

298
00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,560
Speaker 1: Butler's on a different level. So I'm a little concerned

299
00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:33,600
Speaker 1: about Malone's comments and maybe being focused on other things

300
00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:36,560
Speaker 1: in basketball. But over to twenty one for the Clippers

301
00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,080
Speaker 1: and the Nuggets coming up in game number two and

302
00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,640
Speaker 1: finally one game seven to go here one hockey game.

303
00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:45,680
Speaker 1: We're going back to our same betting here, one and

304
00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,280
Speaker 1: a half goals. One oh six is the number I

305
00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:52,240
Speaker 1: got Islanders over one and a half goals. Remember, we

306
00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:55,120
Speaker 1: have the Islanders at plus one twenty five to win

307
00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:58,360
Speaker 1: this series. I'm not gonna hedge this time. Okay, I'm

308
00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:00,320
Speaker 1: gonna let this play out because I think the Islanders

309
00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:02,840
Speaker 1: are gonna win. So I'm not gonna bet it because

310
00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:06,000
Speaker 1: I actually think that New York wins. So rather than

311
00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:08,480
Speaker 1: just take the other side and say, okay, the Flyers win,

312
00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:10,880
Speaker 1: and I mean, I could hedge if I want to,

313
00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:13,200
Speaker 1: but I'm not going to. I'm gonna see if this

314
00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:16,480
Speaker 1: plays out. I was talking to again, a sportsbook friend

315
00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:18,360
Speaker 1: of mine, and you know, it's kind of saying, like

316
00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:21,000
Speaker 1: Matt hedging, you don't need to hedge here when it's

317
00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:23,040
Speaker 1: only a plus one twenty five, Like you should be

318
00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:25,920
Speaker 1: hedging when it's a gigantic four or five leg parlay

319
00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,240
Speaker 1: like that makes more sense to hedge when it's a

320
00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:31,400
Speaker 1: series price at plus one twenty five, not really worth

321
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:32,960
Speaker 1: it to go ahead and do that. You just let

322
00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:35,240
Speaker 1: it ride it out, because you know, if you're betting

323
00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,440
Speaker 1: one hundred dollars or one unit Okay, So you lose

324
00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,560
Speaker 1: one hundred in order to come back and bet the

325
00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,600
Speaker 1: flyers on the other side. You know, it's not a

326
00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:44,680
Speaker 1: lot of money we're talking about, and he's right. So

327
00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:46,880
Speaker 1: you're talking about the difference of like a five leg

328
00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:50,240
Speaker 1: parlay that pays out at you know, a thousand dollars. Okay,

329
00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:53,240
Speaker 1: then definitely hedge and makes some money for yourself. But

330
00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:55,240
Speaker 1: if it's that small of a price, don't hedge. It

331
00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:57,600
Speaker 1: doesn't make a lot of sense. So that makes he

332
00:15:57,640 --> 00:15:59,560
Speaker 1: tucked me out of that. So we're gonna ride with

333
00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:02,040
Speaker 1: the Island plus one twenty five. Let that rollout and

334
00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,120
Speaker 1: take the second period over one and a half goals

335
00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:08,120
Speaker 1: because that's just consistently hitting one for two. Yesterday hitting

336
00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:10,280
Speaker 1: one and a half goals over Vegas did not hit.

337
00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:13,720
Speaker 1: But the first game with the Avalanche and the Stars

338
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:15,800
Speaker 1: did hit one and a half goals with two goals

339
00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:18,240
Speaker 1: being scored in the second period. So we're gonna ride

340
00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,240
Speaker 1: that again. I think that trend now of one and

341
00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,560
Speaker 1: a half goals, I think it's seventeen to seven now

342
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:26,000
Speaker 1: here in the second round, and we have one more

343
00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:27,840
Speaker 1: game in the second round. I'm not sure what will

344
00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,960
Speaker 1: happen in the Western Conference in East Conference finals. I

345
00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:32,800
Speaker 1: don't know if we'll keep playing this, but we're gonna

346
00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:34,680
Speaker 1: play it one more time here in round number two

347
00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:37,600
Speaker 1: for the playoffs for that So okay, So the recap

348
00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:41,560
Speaker 1: our plays here for a Saturday's Daily juice. It's hopefully

349
00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,320
Speaker 1: end the weekend when in the week on an upswing

350
00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:47,640
Speaker 1: here fifteen to fifteen in one in the week SMU

351
00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:51,800
Speaker 1: minus twenty three minus one ten, Army minus three minus

352
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:55,120
Speaker 1: one ten. The Derby pick for a quarter unit is

353
00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:57,640
Speaker 1: tis the law depending on where the you know, wait

354
00:16:57,720 --> 00:16:59,400
Speaker 1: till the it all kind of shakes out here a

355
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,040
Speaker 1: little bit because the Derby odds are going to be

356
00:17:01,040 --> 00:17:03,240
Speaker 1: all over the place. So whatever the odds are three

357
00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:05,720
Speaker 1: to five, maybe it's even money, I don't know, but

358
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,080
Speaker 1: we're gonna just bettiss the law at a quarter unit

359
00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:11,320
Speaker 1: to win the Derby, Boston plus one at minus one ten,

360
00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:16,240
Speaker 1: Clippers over to twenty one, total game total at two

361
00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:19,840
Speaker 1: twenty one at minus one ten, and the Islanders second

362
00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:23,280
Speaker 1: period over minus one and a half goals at minus

363
00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:28,120
Speaker 1: one oh six here for game number seven. So busy Saturday,

364
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:32,359
Speaker 1: keep dming me, keep watching games with me, sweating it

365
00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:35,920
Speaker 1: out at Sports Talk Matt on Instagram and on Twitter.

366
00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,040
Speaker 1: We're having fun. We're not making money right now, but

367
00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,800
Speaker 1: hopefully we will this coming today, college football gets going today.

368
00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:45,320
Speaker 1: I like my college football plays a lot, so hopefully,

369
00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:47,800
Speaker 1: crossing my fingers, hopefully those picks both hit for us,

370
00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:50,400
Speaker 1: and then we've got football and I feel football coming

371
00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,000
Speaker 1: up on Thursday. Just a lot of fun, a lot

372
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:55,280
Speaker 1: of cool things going on. And by the way, I'm

373
00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:59,760
Speaker 1: in the DraftKings Pro Football pick contest. Dan Harris and

374
00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:02,240
Speaker 1: I together from Fantasy Pros. Him and I are together

375
00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:05,919
Speaker 1: for a team for DraftKings. I'm with another team for

376
00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,760
Speaker 1: Circa for the Circa Million here in Vegas. So I'm

377
00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,320
Speaker 1: in both contests. So if you have any questions, if

378
00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:12,520
Speaker 1: you guys are going to be in those contests, do

379
00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,000
Speaker 1: you have any questions. I've been in them now for

380
00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:16,040
Speaker 1: five years, so if you have any questions about how

381
00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:18,639
Speaker 1: to do strategy or what's it like to be in

382
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:20,280
Speaker 1: them or whatnot, And as we go through it, you

383
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,520
Speaker 1: can ask me questions each week about NFL stagnant Lions

384
00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:25,639
Speaker 1: and even I did the Westgate Super Contest for a

385
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:27,080
Speaker 1: bunch of years too, So if you're in that and

386
00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:28,600
Speaker 1: you want to talk to me about that, feel free

387
00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:31,159
Speaker 1: as well. So those contests will get going in the

388
00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:34,000
Speaker 1: first weekend of the NFL next weekend, not this weekend,

389
00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,880
Speaker 1: but next weekend for that. So football's here. It's gonna

390
00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:38,679
Speaker 1: be a ton of fun. So best of luck to

391
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:40,639
Speaker 1: us and our plays and our picks. My name is

392
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,560
Speaker 1: Matt Paroltz. Follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt.

393
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,440
Speaker 1: We're back for a Sunday edition of the Daily News podcast,

394
00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:57,920
Speaker 1: presented by bettmgm off benningcros dot com.