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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just mop that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go from throwing out so spect

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Speaker 3: I'm sitting up to cash touchtop.

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Speaker 1: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win.

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Speaker 4: That's incredible, big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 1: I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to pass.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway. Welcome into our NFL roundtable for

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Speaker 3: week or this week. I am joined by two of

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Speaker 3: my Action Network colleagues, Brendan Glasheen, joined by our NFL contributors,

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Speaker 3: mister Brandon Anderson. Catch Brandon every Friday morning here on

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Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast for our weekly NFL Best Bets episodes,

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Speaker 3: as well as Monday mornings for our NFL recaps, and

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Speaker 3: joining him is one of our predictive analytics analysts, analytics analysts,

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Speaker 3: one of our predictive analytics contributors at Action. He's a

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Speaker 3: darling of the Action Network Discord Server. He's one of

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Speaker 3: our best NASCAR betters in the world. He's an engine

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Speaker 3: of Action. He is the engine or engine I mean

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Speaker 3: pick one the a there's very different connotation there, but

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Speaker 3: he is a key cog behind the Action Network luck rankings.

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Speaker 3: NFL Luck rankings. He does a million different stuff here.

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Speaker 3: The Doctor Nick Giffen is joining the NFL Roundtable for

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Speaker 3: the first time this year.

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Speaker 1: Hei, Nick, Hello, Hello, Happy Leading into Week four of

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Speaker 1: NFL season, was that.

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Speaker 3: The best setup you've ever had in your Action Network career?

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Speaker 1: It was? I think the only thing you left off

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Speaker 1: was the college basketball This all.

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Speaker 3: Right, Nick, my fault. I forgot eighty million things you do,

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Speaker 3: fair schuir. Fact though, we're gonna spend the first half

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Speaker 3: of today's show focusing on the luck rankings. First off,

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Speaker 3: let's kick off with the first usual question, and we're

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Speaker 3: gonna get to several topics. Nick, I call this like

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Speaker 3: the group therapy session Tuesday of the NFL season, just

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Speaker 3: to kind of decompress, gather your thoughts and what is

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Speaker 3: kind of twisting and turning up there in your brain

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Speaker 3: of yours leading into the following weeks. I'll go to

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Speaker 3: you first. Biggest takeaway from NFL Week.

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Speaker 1: Three, Yeah, I think the biggest takeaway for me is

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Speaker 1: how different it was from weeks one and two. Some

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Speaker 1: people may not realize it, you know, they still think

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Speaker 1: scoring is down, but play calling and QB improvements were

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Speaker 1: the name of the week, passing success rates were up

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Speaker 1: to forty five point three percent. That's up from forty

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Speaker 1: one and forty three percent in weeks one and two.

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Speaker 1: Passing volume was up. There were one thirty eight total

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Speaker 1: passing plays that were non spikes that result in either

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Speaker 1: a pass attempt or a sack versus ten fifty three

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Speaker 1: in ten forty in weeks one and two, So nearly

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Speaker 1: one hundred more pass attempts in week three than the

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Speaker 1: first two weeks average. And you know, if we look

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Speaker 1: at explosive plays, explosive passing was up to four point

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Speaker 1: seven percent, which of all plays, not just of pass plays,

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Speaker 1: but of all plays four point seven percent of all

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Speaker 1: plays versus three point nine and four point two percent

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Speaker 1: in weeks one and two. And explosive passing, explosive rushing,

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Speaker 1: non explosive passing, and non explosive rushing, we're all right

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Speaker 1: in line with twenty twenty three averages for the whole

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Speaker 1: season there in week three. So maybe we're having a return,

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a return to maybe not so

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Speaker 1: much normalcy, but closer to what we've been seeing in

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Speaker 1: the past.

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Speaker 3: Brandon, same question to you.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I feel like the takeaway is kind of what

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Speaker 4: we thought going in Brandon. I think it was kitchen

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Speaker 4: sink Week. We saw all these oh and two teams

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Speaker 4: show up and fight for their lives. We ranked Brandon

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Speaker 4: on our show on Friday. We ranked the nine oh

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Speaker 4: to two teams in order of how well they fit

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Speaker 4: the kitchen sink trends. The top five we winked where

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Speaker 4: the Rams, Ravens, Giants, Colts, Panthers. They all covered. They

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Speaker 4: all went out right six and a half point dog,

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Speaker 4: six and a half, seven and a half for three

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Speaker 4: of those teams. Sunday especially was a very kitchen sinky

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Speaker 4: week or kitchen sinky Day, and just in general that's

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Speaker 4: been the story of the season. I think still is

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Speaker 4: just the underdogs continue to win. And to me, the

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Speaker 4: takeaway then is don't get too overconfident. Right, the Steelers

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Speaker 4: are three and oh, the Vikings are three and oh,

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Speaker 4: the Bengals are oh and to three, the Jaguars are

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Speaker 4: oh and to three. Like nobody thought this is what

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Speaker 4: was going to happen. You got to kind of see

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Speaker 4: what's happening. Hold lightly to things, don't get too overconfident

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Speaker 4: in your reads, and especially play the number not necessarily

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Speaker 4: just the team or the matchups. Sometimes when books are

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Speaker 4: overreacting or betters are overreacting or both, we got to

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Speaker 4: just kind of close your eyes and take the points.

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Speaker 4: I even said on the show that the Rams were

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Speaker 4: the best kitchen sink spot. They're definitely the spot. But

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Speaker 4: I can't do it. I couldn't do it, and then

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Speaker 4: here they are winners of their game. So sometimes you

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Speaker 4: just got to play the number in the spot and

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Speaker 4: let the rest sort itself out.

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Speaker 3: I think Nick raises a good point with his data

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Speaker 3: to back it up, but also just eyeball test, it's

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Speaker 3: a proof that they're no preseason. We've been beating us

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Speaker 3: into the drum, but no preseason and young quarterbacks like

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Speaker 3: I think Nick Daniels was fantastic last night, of course.

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Speaker 3: Just they're making strides, and I think this is what

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Speaker 3: the league wanted us to sign up for by adding

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Speaker 3: another game eventually down the road, adding the seventeenth game

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Speaker 3: a few years ago, eighteen coming. We're just gonna have

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Speaker 3: to We're just gonna have to accept it. You know,

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Speaker 3: these first few weeks are going to be turbulent and

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Speaker 3: maybe piss poor as far as like offense is concerned,

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Speaker 3: but better good signs in Week three, as Nick mentioned,

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Speaker 3: So for like the five hundredth million time that I've

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Speaker 3: talked to Nick Giffen, I want him to educate the

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Speaker 3: audience on the NFL luck rank And it's a big

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Speaker 3: umbrella of a question here, but like your biggest takeaway

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Speaker 3: as it pertains to the NFL luck rankings, Nick Giffen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, something that I thought was very interesting is what

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Speaker 1: powers our luck rankings is something called expected scores. So

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Speaker 1: that's basically, if they've replayed this game between these two

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Speaker 1: teams a million times over and put them in the

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Speaker 1: same situations, what should the score have been based off

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Speaker 1: the underlying stats and data from that matchup. Well, our

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Speaker 1: expected scores have always trended perfectly with actual scores. If

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Speaker 1: you plot a graph, you know, you get a perfect

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Speaker 1: line that fits right next to the line why equals x.

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Speaker 1: This year, our expected scores you have to just shift

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Speaker 1: straight downward from actual scores. I should say actual scores

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Speaker 1: are much lower than our expected scores. So our expected

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Speaker 1: scores have been overshooting every game, and I think it's

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Speaker 1: because of the weird changes in Week one and two.

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Speaker 1: Week three was a lot better though, So I'm not

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Speaker 1: totally there on, I need to update the expected scores formula.

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Speaker 1: We'll see what happens, but I do have a contingent

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Speaker 1: expected scores formula already in case there's been some league

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Speaker 1: wide shifts. And that's the thing. The NFL is always changing.

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Speaker 1: I can't use luck rankings data from pre twenty eighteen

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Speaker 1: because the league was so different seven, eight, nine, ten

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Speaker 1: years ago than it was the past few years. And

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Speaker 1: if the league is starting to change again, that we're

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Speaker 1: gonna have to keep up with that in the expected

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Speaker 1: score formula. And that's a great thing about having the

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Speaker 1: luck rankings is we'll be able to catch up just

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Speaker 1: as fast, if not faster, than maybe the other sports

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Speaker 1: betters or the books because we're always staying on top

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Speaker 1: of these trends of how expected scores and actual scores.

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Speaker 1: But one thing that's not going to change is luck. Right,

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Speaker 1: if you should have scored more and you didn't, or

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Speaker 1: if you should have scored less, you know, those things

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Speaker 1: will still tend to play out over time. So I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, we'll be right on the ball there, So

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Speaker 1: even if overall scores have gone up or down on

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Speaker 1: the luck factor will still remain not stillborn.

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Speaker 3: I appreciate about people like you that appreciate math but

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Speaker 3: quickly to just to respond to what you said, what

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Speaker 3: would prompt you to make a change, like, what would

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Speaker 3: what would it take?

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Speaker 1: Just sustained differences between actual and expected scores. I think,

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Speaker 1: if it's sustained and we see reasons for it being sustained,

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Speaker 1: things like we've talked about with the too high safety trends,

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Speaker 1: more rushing, fewer overall plays. If those things are sustained

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Speaker 1: and they affect things like explosive play rates and success

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Speaker 1: rates are no longer indicative of predicted performance or less

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Speaker 1: less of predictive of future performance simply because success rate

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Speaker 1: is less meaningful because the successes are smaller. Then I

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Speaker 1: think that it would just prompt the change. But it

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Speaker 1: has to be sustained and there has to be reasons

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Speaker 1: for it.

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Speaker 3: So using the luck rankings, and I want Brandon to

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Speaker 3: chime in on this after you give give out the

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Speaker 3: he's I think this this first one won't surprise many.

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Speaker 3: I think based on some of the screenshots I saw

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Speaker 3: online last night that are annoying people. They're getting a

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Speaker 3: lot of breaks like the Patriots did and their dynasty

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Speaker 3: run which teams, based on the luck rankings are lucky,

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Speaker 3: which teams are unlucky, And can you explain about why

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Speaker 3: that is the case for each of those teams.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so we'll start right at the top. Chiefs enter

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Speaker 1: week four as the luckiest team. They were the luckiest

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Speaker 1: team after week three, I say, after week two, entering

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Speaker 1: week three as well.

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Speaker 3: And we know the record. Nick is not just going

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Speaker 3: back to likely and the non PI call. There's a

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Speaker 3: lot that goes into this. He's not just whining about calls, right.

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Speaker 1: Sure, yeah, Well, it has nothing to do with calls.

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Speaker 1: It just has to do with the fact that based

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Speaker 1: off the expected scores of these games, they should have

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Speaker 1: lost week one versus the Ravens. We had I think

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Speaker 1: the Ravens about a point and a half better in

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Speaker 1: our expected scores. From the data, we had Cincinnati by

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Speaker 1: about a point over the Chiefs, and they won both

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Speaker 1: of those games. So, going to and Zho, realistically you

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Speaker 1: should be fifty to fifty means you're at fifty percent luck.

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Speaker 1: If you're one hundred percent winner versus fifty percent should

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Speaker 1: be winning. Our luck rankings use record versus expected record, right,

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Speaker 1: and so, and there's another way we can look at

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Speaker 1: luck rankings, which is scoring versus actual scoring versus expected scoring.

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Speaker 1: That is a different luck percentage that I also keep

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Speaker 1: in the background. I've actually found that record has been

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Speaker 1: more indicative of successful betting with the luck rankings. Interesting enough,

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Speaker 1: and then Week three against Atlanta, you know, they played

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Speaker 1: a close game. It was a one score game. They

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Speaker 1: should have won. They should have won by about as

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Speaker 1: much as they did. But that just means again, there's

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Speaker 1: still half a win above expectation something like that. Well,

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Speaker 1: I shouldn't say half a win more than that. They

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Speaker 1: they have. They're three to zero and they should have

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Speaker 1: won you know, around one and a half of these games,

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Speaker 1: little more than one and a half of these games,

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Speaker 1: because they've all essentially been coin flips and they've won three.

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Speaker 3: Right now, second second unlock luckiest team is ho unlucky.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so the Bengals on the flip side, who the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs of course played in Week two, are the second

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Speaker 1: most unlucky. They dropped into our bottom three this week

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Speaker 1: after that loss to the Washington Commanders, which they should

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Speaker 1: have lost by our expected score, but only by one point,

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Speaker 1: not by five. But a lot of it also has

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Speaker 1: to do with the loss versus the Chiefs, which was unlucky,

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Speaker 1: as we talked about, and in Week one they lost

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Speaker 1: to the Patriots in a game they definitely got unlucky,

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Speaker 1: and our expected score still had the Patriots winning, but

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Speaker 1: by a very close margin instead of the six point

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Speaker 1: margin not the Patriots one.

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Speaker 3: Okay, and then the last one. Oh man, Well, will

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Speaker 3: Levis I think has contributed to some of this as far.

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Speaker 1: As uh yeah, yeah. My note in here is holy hell,

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Speaker 1: stop giving up defensive and special team scores, because the

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Speaker 1: Titans have given up three of those now, one on

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Speaker 1: a blocked punt that turned into a touchdown and two

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Speaker 1: will Levis turnovers into scores. Per Pro Football Focus, will

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Speaker 1: Levis has only had three turnover worthy plays is year.

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Speaker 1: Two of them have been touchdowns for the opposing team, right,

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Speaker 1: So that's just not sustainable. That's if you throw twenty

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Speaker 1: turnover worthy plays in a season, maybe two or three

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Speaker 1: of them tend to be pick sixes. He's already had

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Speaker 1: two or three of them in the first couple of

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Speaker 1: weeks here, so certainly just some bad turnover luck. He

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Speaker 1: is going to be a guy that will be on

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Speaker 1: the higher turnover side of things. And that's all accounted

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Speaker 1: for in the underlying data, but just the fact that

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Speaker 1: they've been returned for scores is you know, and then

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Speaker 1: the block punt as well has just been really unlucky.

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Speaker 3: Brandon. I think this kind of reflects back to what

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Speaker 3: you sit off the top about long year kitchen sink week. Now,

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Speaker 3: you've got to keep it in perspective when you using

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Speaker 3: nick is kind of a jumping off point with the

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Speaker 3: luck rankings. How does that as a better now keep

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Speaker 3: you grounded?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think for me what's interesting is thinking about

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Speaker 4: playing week to week versus playing future. So we know,

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Speaker 4: I'm like the big futures guy. And so with the Chiefs,

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Speaker 4: you've got you gotta anowedge Chiefs and Bengals, both sides

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Speaker 4: of the equation here where Okay, I probably shouldn't be

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Speaker 4: thinking about the Chiefs as this like high flying three

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Speaker 4: and oh two time Super Bowl champion juggernaut right now,

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Speaker 4: that's not how they're playing, however, they are. In fact

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Speaker 4: three and oh. It's a binary sport either win or lose.

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Speaker 4: I mean they get like a tie once a season,

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Speaker 4: but you pretty much either win or lose. And like,

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Speaker 4: so I have an article up today as we've got

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Speaker 4: five three and oh teams, So my article of Action

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Speaker 4: Network is okay, which of the three and oh teams

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Speaker 4: might still not make the postseason? The numbers gonna vary

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Speaker 4: because the postseason is shifting. Effectively, about one in three

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Speaker 4: three and oh teams tend to still miss the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: It's not gonna be the Chiefs.

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Speaker 4: They're three and oh against the Ravens and the Bengals

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Speaker 4: and the Falcons, which right now doesn't seem great because

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Speaker 4: those teams aren't winning. But when we look back at

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Speaker 4: the end of the season, that's gonna be the toughest

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Speaker 4: stretch of the season. They should have lost at least

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Speaker 4: one of the games, maybe two already. Like Nick by

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Speaker 4: your formula, they could being three right like, they are

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Speaker 4: not so far from zero to three versus three and oh,

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Speaker 4: but they're not. So I need to think about the

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Speaker 4: Chiefs a little less week to week and maybe not

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Speaker 4: think that they're juggernauts blowing teams out, but at a

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Speaker 4: future standpoint, they're three to zero with the luck in

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Speaker 4: their favor however they got there. You can be mad

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Speaker 4: if you want, but like Patrick Mahomes, MVP stock has

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Speaker 4: to be up, not because he's playing well, but because

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Speaker 4: we picked quarterbacks from teams that win a lot, and

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs win a lot. And guess what, they still

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Speaker 4: got two Broncos games, two Raiders games, two Chargers games,

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Speaker 4: one of them this week against the Corps of the

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Speaker 4: Chargers whoever they have left or roll out. So that's

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs side. On the other side with the Bengals

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Speaker 4: are the Bengals oh and three team? Well, no, the

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Speaker 4: Bengals are much better team than they look right now.

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Speaker 4: They've had terrible fumble lock, they've had terrible kicking lock,

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Speaker 4: like everything has gone against them. Also, yes, the Bengals

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Speaker 4: are owing three because that's what the standings say. They

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Speaker 4: have lost the games. And historically last week with the

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Speaker 4: kitchen sink thing, we talked about, you gotta win in

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Speaker 4: week three. You can't go to to three. Your chances

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Speaker 4: of making the playoffs at oh to three are like

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Speaker 4: nearly zero. Historically, it's barely ever happened. The Bengals are,

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Speaker 4: in fact one to three. I have to treat them

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Speaker 4: like they're not a postseason team until they actually make

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Speaker 4: the postseason. That's what I have to assume. That doesn't

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Speaker 4: mean you have to bet them week to week. I

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Speaker 4: think they're much better team than they look week to week.

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Speaker 3: So it's both.

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Speaker 4: And I think too, as you follow picks in the

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Speaker 4: app or see how things come in, you can be

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Speaker 4: on a Bengals side and you can still be fading

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Speaker 4: the Bengals futures both at the same time. So I

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Speaker 4: think for me, that's where the luck rankings come in

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Speaker 4: and say, okay, well, well, how do anything about this

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Speaker 4: team now? But also what are the actual results that

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Speaker 4: we have for later and how do they tally up

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Speaker 4: for futures?

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Speaker 3: Interesting? And yeah, the article NFL Predictions Futures picks ranking

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Speaker 3: which undefeated teams could miss the playoffs, and he talks

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Speaker 3: about all five of them. Ye spoiler alert.

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Speaker 4: I'm not a big fan of the Steelers right now.

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Speaker 4: So the question is really when, not if, we should

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Speaker 4: be fading Pittsburgh. You can take a look at that

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Speaker 4: from ore.

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Speaker 1: Thir Weirs third luckiest team in our Love bankings the

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh You're red in my mind. And to Brandon's point,

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Speaker 1: when we get around week five, six seven, when enough

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Speaker 1: teams have had five six seven games, right then we

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Speaker 1: can really start strength to schedule adjusting because to Brandon's point,

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs faced a tough schedule and they'll face an

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Speaker 1: easier schedule when we get the strength adjusted strength, the

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Speaker 1: schedule adjusted expected scores, that's when it really kicks in

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Speaker 1: and I love start starting to bet futures again rest

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Speaker 1: of season futures. I love that, and that's how we

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Speaker 1: can use the luck rankings for that.

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Speaker 3: Our sister company, Playmaker, just released a new podcast that

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Speaker 1: You know what I'm saying.

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Speaker 3: NFL Week four, Nick Giffin means we can start using

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Speaker 3: the luck rankings for totals as well. What are we

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Speaker 3: seeing this week? Unders have been hitting at a very

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Speaker 3: high rate, so I think that might be at the

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Speaker 3: top of mind for better's tuning in. So with that

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Speaker 3: in mind, but you did say the offense was better

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Speaker 3: in week three, better quarterback play, So how are we

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Speaker 3: meshing that together? And it goes back to expected scoring.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a messy one. Normally this is where

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Speaker 1: totals would kick in and we'd be betting some luckovers

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Speaker 1: or some luck unders, depending on if these teams should

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Speaker 1: have had been in higher scoring games than they were

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Speaker 1: or should have been in lower scoring games than they were.

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Speaker 1: Then you know, trend towards and under. But with expected

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Speaker 1: scores not matching actual scores, a complete total shift. It

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Speaker 1: makes me a little nervous. So I have both the

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Speaker 1: old version of expected scores and the twenty twenty four

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Speaker 1: version of expected scores in there. And what I think

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Speaker 1: we can do safely is if I'm using the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four version of expected scores, which are lower to

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Speaker 1: match the lower actual scoring, and we're still showing undervalue

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Speaker 1: based off of the luck unders, then we can safely

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Speaker 1: bet the under. I think right, because I've already just

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Speaker 1: them down and it's saying you should still go lower

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Speaker 1: than that, and maybe books haven't caught up enough to

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Speaker 1: the under trends. Then I feel like we can safely

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Speaker 1: bet it under even if the league returns to previous

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00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:17,200
Speaker 1: rates of scoring and sustainableness. We have such a buffer there.

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Speaker 1: We're going under on a kind of artificial under that

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Speaker 1: I've made with the expected scores, so we have a

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Speaker 1: lot of buffer for if these offenses improve, we can

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Speaker 1: still hit the under.

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Speaker 3: We have five totals under forty this week Tennessee, Miami, Cleveland, Vegas,

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Speaker 3: Kansas City Chargers. Wow, it's under forty, Patriots, Niners, Rams,

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Speaker 3: Bears is at forty and a half now, Colt Steelers, which, Brandon,

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Speaker 3: you've been on top of that one for a while

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Speaker 3: now going back a few weeks and then uh, Denver Jets. Okay,

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Speaker 3: maybe it's more than five, maybe it's six. Okay, all right,

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Speaker 3: anything the way in there, Brandon as far as totals,

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Speaker 3: because Brandon Anderson got the you know, one of the

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Speaker 3: hottest guys of the company right now, he got his

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Speaker 3: this whole season straightened out thanks to betting some unders.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the unders definitely have gone well. I was just

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Speaker 4: looking as you were talking, Nick, to see what the

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Speaker 4: total is for that Monday night Titans and Dolphins game.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if we're gonna get there in our

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Speaker 4: rundown here, but I have my eye on that one

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Speaker 4: only because I'm wondering who exactly plays quarterback for the Dolphins.

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Speaker 4: And I don't know that this necessarily will carry over,

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Speaker 4: but I think maybe the quarterback will be Tyler Huntley

400
00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:30,400
Speaker 4: because Skyler Thompson's not healthy and we were out of options.

401
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,680
Speaker 4: Tyler Huntley, last we forget, is a pro bowler. Don't

402
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Speaker 4: forget Tyler Huntley is a pro bowler, which is ridiculous.

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Speaker 4: Tyler Huntley Unders are eight and one all time. They

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Speaker 4: average under thirty two points a game. Combine for the teams. Now,

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Speaker 4: look those are with the Ravens. I don't get the

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Speaker 4: Ravens defense in this game, but I do get Will

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Speaker 4: Levis and maybe Tyler Huntley if we go that direction.

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Speaker 4: So I do see there's some thirty seven and a

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00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,920
Speaker 4: half's out there. Thirty seven is the last key number

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00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,680
Speaker 4: we get going down, So I think that that under

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Speaker 4: could be interesting. Nick, does that one come up in

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Speaker 4: the luck unders at all? Right now?

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Speaker 1: It does? It is the second most luck under right now.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of it is Will Levis gifting

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Speaker 1: pick sixes to the other teams, scoring that shouldn't have

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00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 1: been there, right, and the block punt things like that.

417
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 1: So this game actually has, with the newly adjusted expected scores,

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00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 1: a luck total of minus nine point six. Typically we

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Speaker 1: say anything below minus five is a luck under. So

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Speaker 1: this is the second most luck under on the already

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Speaker 1: downward adjusted expected scores.

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Speaker 3: Real quick, before we move on from luck. As much

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Speaker 3: as I love the luck conversation, what else besides betting

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Speaker 3: sides and totals can we utilize? Because Nick, you do,

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Speaker 3: you dive into some niche markets, which is which makes

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Speaker 3: it a lot of fun to follow you in the

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Speaker 3: Action network app. So what are some other things that

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Speaker 3: folks can use the luck rankings for to capitalize on markets?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, team totals. Of course, if we have luck team totals,

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Speaker 1: which which is you know how much these teams should

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Speaker 1: be scoring above or below expectation based off the matchup

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Speaker 1: they have that week, we can do player props, right

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Speaker 1: if a team is the perfect one was Caleb Williams

434
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 1: this week. I took over thirty and a half passing attempts.

435
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:19,160
Speaker 1: He threw over fifty because we had the Indianapolis Colts

436
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,440
Speaker 1: as the unlucky team versus the Bears, so we had

437
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:24,160
Speaker 1: Indy more likely to cover versus the Bears, more likely

438
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 1: to lead, meaning passing game script for the Bears. And

439
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,879
Speaker 1: so you can translate that into Caleb Williams needing to

440
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,359
Speaker 1: pass more than expectation. So you can use player props

441
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 1: for it highest and lowest scoring games. We just talked

442
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 1: about luck totals, right. Billy Ward our Predictive Analytics Colleague

443
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,640
Speaker 1: Weeks one in week two hit the highest scoring game

444
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:46,439
Speaker 1: seven to one in week one ten to one in

445
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 1: week two. We had a luck signal on the week

446
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 1: two games specifically, so I was also on that with

447
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 1: him highest scoring game in Week two hit at ten

448
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:59,199
Speaker 1: to one, So all sorts of things. And I have

449
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,879
Speaker 1: an overtime I like to use. And when the underdog

450
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,920
Speaker 1: team is the also the unlucky team, they're more likely

451
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 1: to cover, more likely to make it close. Overtime ends

452
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 1: up showing more value. So you know, that's always a

453
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 1: fun one, like a fifteen to one twelve to one

454
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 1: type market that I love playing every once in a

455
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:18,880
Speaker 1: while when the model shows value.

456
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 3: Okay, real quick before I'm putting you on the spot

457
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,160
Speaker 3: a little bit here, so forgive me any luck plays

458
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 3: that you want to give here on the show before

459
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 3: we move on.

460
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,160
Speaker 1: I like that luck under that Tennessee and Miami that

461
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 1: Brandon was talking about for Monday Night Football. Haven't gotten

462
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 1: through everything yet, right, you know, Monday Night Football just

463
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 1: ended last night. I instantly updated the luck rankings when

464
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:43,040
Speaker 1: the data came out, and because I'm on Pacific time,

465
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:44,960
Speaker 1: I haven't had a chance to dive in this morning.

466
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 4: No problem.

467
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,640
Speaker 3: This again is it's Tuesday morning and Nick, he's West

468
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 3: Coast time Tuesday afternoon for our cases, myself and Brandon,

469
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,160
Speaker 3: So all good, no problem. Just want to be sure

470
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,919
Speaker 3: we have all this luck talk that there's something there.

471
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 3: We'll give it out again. This is our round table episode.

472
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,400
Speaker 3: It's kind of getting into the weeds from what we

473
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 3: just saw and trying to wrap our heads around what

474
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 3: is expected this week. Brandon. We did the recap episode

475
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,919
Speaker 3: on Sunday evening and the wee hours into Monday, and

476
00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:17,159
Speaker 3: I felt kind of bad because Evan Abrams, our director

477
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 3: of research and media, does a great job. We split

478
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 3: up all the games, Nick and I allowed Evan to

479
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 3: talk about the Carolina Raiders game, and we were short

480
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 3: on time or moving along. I really didn't give Brandon

481
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 3: a chance to weigh in on the Island resort maybe

482
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:39,160
Speaker 3: getting some positive reviews. They looked like the Panthers looked

483
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 3: like a real franchise for the first time in forever.

484
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:46,680
Speaker 3: Dave Canalis with Andy Dalton, who looked awesome slinging it

485
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 3: all over the yard. The team Carolina claims that Young's

486
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 3: Bryce Young's benching is temporary. It's a temporary timeout. How

487
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 3: many games do they need to lose to return to

488
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,439
Speaker 3: Bryce Young without causing a riot? Brandon?

489
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,040
Speaker 4: I mean, I think that the fact that Bryce Young

490
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 4: is in trade rumors right now probably speaks for itself,

491
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:10,200
Speaker 4: so I think that it's Andy Dalton's team until proven otherwise.

492
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 4: These are only three hundred and three touchdown game of

493
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 4: the year. Well, I'm not sure if that's still true

494
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 4: after last night. I'm gonna guess we had some big

495
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 4: performances on Monday night, but Dalton had a big game.

496
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 4: Chewba Hobbard at one hundred and almost seventy yards combined

497
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 4: two scores. Dante Johnson looked like a receiver. Games like,

498
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 4: oh hey, look, competent quarterback play. How about that Panthers

499
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 4: Island one game out of the division After all that,

500
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,959
Speaker 4: I don't know. The Saints lose, the Falcons lose, and

501
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 4: the Buccaneers lose.

502
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:40,639
Speaker 3: We're there.

503
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 4: A week ago. We bet them at two hundred to

504
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 4: one to win the division. It's down to twenty five

505
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 4: to one.

506
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 1: Now.

507
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 4: That means we're still gonna lose, but we got a

508
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 4: lot better chance. Now it's only a one game back.

509
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 4: We'll see. I gotta be honest, I can't get so

510
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 4: excited about Carolina yet. I think this was more about

511
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 4: the Raiders, the other team in the game that got

512
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 4: absolutely plowed by the Panthers. Antonio Peers after three weeks

513
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,399
Speaker 4: is calling dudes out for business decisions. A ton of

514
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 4: Peers after three weeks is talking about maybe benching their quarterback.

515
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 3: What in the.

516
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,880
Speaker 4: World three weeks in, like if you've lost things that

517
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 4: badly already, and their run game in particular, and Tony

518
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 4: Pierce wants to run football like this is what their

519
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:26,200
Speaker 4: identity is supposed to be. It's what they brought in

520
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 4: Luke Getzi to do. They're under thirty one percent and

521
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 4: rushing success rate that is dead last in the NFL.

522
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,400
Speaker 4: It's about half of what the Saints are so far

523
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 4: epa per run. There are two teams below point negative

524
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,920
Speaker 4: point twenty five epa per run. One of them is

525
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 4: the Panthers. One of them's the Raiders at negative point six'

526
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 4: four epa per. Run every time The raiders run the

527
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 4: ball three, times which is like a, series usually they

528
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,959
Speaker 4: lose two more points chancing to win the. Game so

529
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 4: it's not. Great it's not great for The, RAIDERS i

530
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 4: gotta tell, you not great for The bengals that they

531
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,439
Speaker 4: are only four and a half point favorites playing The

532
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:09,399
Speaker 4: panthers this. Week The panthers as terrible as they've looked.

533
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 1: Before the.

534
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,640
Speaker 4: Season this was six and a half on the season look,

535
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:16,160
Speaker 4: ahead so not a great look for The bengals that

536
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 4: the line has dropped toward The panthers despite their terrible.

537
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 4: Start although Nick bengals luck, rankings The bengals are still

538
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 4: a lot better than The. Panthers if it's only four

539
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 4: and a half, POINTS i want to have to think

540
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:30,880
Speaker 4: pretty hard about back in the zero to three team, there.

541
00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 1: And to your, point to your, point this is A

542
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 1: eleckt rankings game for The bengals being the unlucky team

543
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 1: under the current and the old expected score. Model so

544
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:45,480
Speaker 1: definitely The bengals the unlucky team. HERE i will, say

545
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 1: though you know you mentioned they went from six and

546
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 1: a half to four and a. Half it probably if

547
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:51,640
Speaker 1: you went and looked after week one or week two

548
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 1: Before Andy dalton, came and it probably went to seven

549
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 1: and a. Half maybe you. Know so some of this

550
00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:00,479
Speaker 1: it was early poor play From panthers And, bryce but

551
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 1: then you add in the boost To Andy, dalton WHO i,

552
00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 1: mean he has a adjusted net yards per attempt OF

553
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 1: i think it's like over seven and a half yards

554
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 1: for as A Carolina, panther And Bryce young was at

555
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 1: three point four as A Carolina, Panther so four yards

556
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 1: per play better per passing, play better For Andy dalton

557
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:26,080
Speaker 1: Than Bryce young during their time As. Panthers, now obviously

558
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 1: small sample size On dalton, there but his career floor

559
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 1: has been a yard and a half better Than Bryce

560
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 1: young in his like LIKE i, said in his worst.

561
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 1: Season so The panthers tem This panthers seae is much

562
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,959
Speaker 1: improved With Andy. Dalton, this As brandon, said this Is

563
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 1: Andy dalton's team until they're either eliminated from the playoffs

564
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 1: or something like.

565
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 4: That over under it was three and a half one week.

566
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 4: Ago so if we Get Andy dalton the rest of the,

567
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 4: way that is looking like it was a little bit

568
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 4: maybe free money h territory going. Forward we already got the,

569
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 4: one so we need three more to get.

570
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 3: There to five and a. Half by the, way, yes.

571
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 4: Short money for green half was a terrible.

572
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 3: Line short money on short plus money on the over

573
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 3: minus one thirty under five and a Half Andy dalton

574
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 3: against his former team at. Home that's a, math that's

575
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 3: narrative Crap Nick. Giffin so that actually transitions well to

576
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 3: our next. One If, Carolina nick isn't the worst team

577
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 3: in THE. Nfl because this is With dalton in, mind

578
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 3: you think they're much, Better so that you're, toned to,

579
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 3: me indicates that there are a few other possibilities as

580
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 3: worst teams in the.

581
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 1: League, yes AND i know the listeners can't see, this

582
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: but in our, OUTLINE i Have week TWO nfl tiers

583
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 1: In week THREE nfl. Tiers as posted By Ben baldwin On,

584
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 1: twitter you should definitely follow. Him he's fantastic with what

585
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 1: he posts his weekly. Recaps but The panthers went from

586
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 1: all the way down on the bottom left of the,

587
00:29:55,280 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 1: graph meaning completely, terrible to joining the other b on

588
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 1: tier teams in just one week because Of Andy. Dalton

589
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: so that's still incorporating weeks one and two. Data so

590
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 1: they're definitely not the worst team in THE nfl With Andy.

591
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 1: Dalton to, me it's. Tough we don't, know is. It you,

592
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 1: Know miami Without, tua If tour, returns they're not the

593
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 1: worst team in THE. Nfl but without, them Maybe New

594
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: england is still really. Bad that to, ME i think

595
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 1: that's my, answer even though they beat The bengals In week.

596
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 1: One The, bengals, man they're so good on, offense but

597
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 1: they're so bad on, Defense so you, Know Jacoby brissett

598
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 1: just found a way to just manage that, game and you,

599
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 1: Know cincinnati had their apparently typical slow start And New

600
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 1: england covered there and. Won BUT i still think it's The.

601
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 1: Patriots they don't have an offensive. Line Jacoby brissett has

602
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 1: looked like he's been injured multiple times this year and

603
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 1: still ended up. Playing they played so bad against The

604
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 1: jets On thursday night that they finally put In Drake

605
00:30:57,440 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 1: may at the end of the game there because they

606
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 1: were getting beat so. Bad SO i think it's The

607
00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 1: New England.

608
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 3: Patriots, brandon who do you think is the worst team

609
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 3: in the? League is It? Carolina, yeah it's Not.

610
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 4: Carolina right, NOW i Have New england as one of my.

611
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 4: Possibilities that went over The bengals that got us all,

612
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 4: excited a little less exciting now that we've seen the

613
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,719
Speaker 4: rest of The bengals so. FAR i think The, raiders

614
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 4: who we just talked about the fact that they beat

615
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 4: The ravens is gonna look stupider and stupider the longer

616
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 4: the season goes on like that is going to just

617
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 4: be baffling the rest of the. YEAR i think still

618
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 4: The giants. Too that was the hot red Pick thursday

619
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 4: night they play The. Cowboys this is The dallas get

620
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 4: right spot for. ME i don't Think dallas is, great

621
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 4: BUT i think The giants are. Not SO i Think, Raiders, Giants,

622
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 4: patriots of, Course dolphins right now With Scaler thompson or

623
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 4: whoever they're rolling out, there you, know plenty of bad

624
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 4: teams to pick.

625
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 3: From, okay we'll do one more before we go real.

626
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 3: QUICK nfl underdogs have six plus points are now twelve

627
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 3: and one against the number through three, weeks improving the

628
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 3: best start for big dogs and RECORDED nfl betting. History

629
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 3: picked your favorite six plus point dog this, Week, Brandon

630
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 3: i'll let you chime in, first because when we did

631
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 3: the recap pod On, sunday you gave out the teaser

632
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 3: in regards to The chiefs And chargers line still there

633
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 3: at eight and a. Half that's one of the. Games

634
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 3: So chargers getting eight and a half at home host

635
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 3: home as you put, It, Yeah New england At San

636
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 3: francisco in a it feels like a get right spot

637
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:27,880
Speaker 3: For san FRAN i, mean as A patriots, FAN i

638
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:30,239
Speaker 3: kind of wish The niners won that. Game maybe they

639
00:32:30,280 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 3: a little more. COMPLACENT i don't know if that's the,

640
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 3: case but they're banged. Up we know that offensive, line,

641
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 3: weapons all of. It and Then denver against The, Jets,

642
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 3: Brandon i'll let you go first favorite of those.

643
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 4: Three, Yeah AND i played The jets as part of that.

644
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 4: TEASER i got The, jets The, Jets chiefs just win baby.

645
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 4: Teaser SO i guess to that, POINT i would really

646
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 4: only be teasing these teams IF i did not want

647
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 4: the full, Spread SO i GUESS i don't necessarily want

648
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 4: to bet them as over touchdown Favoritesna i'm gonna pass

649
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 4: on all three of these, teams BUT i do have

650
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 4: an answer for, You. Brandan there's a fourth choice here

651
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 4: as of last, night AND i Think jacksonville plus six

652
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 4: and a half at The texans is a great play

653
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 4: and it's actually one of my favorite.

654
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 3: Early plays of the.

655
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 4: Week So, jacksonville of, course looked absolutely horrendous last. Night

656
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 4: jacksonville's new defensive, Coordinator Ryan, nielsen plays the most man

657
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 4: coverage in THE. Nfl Josh allen is elite against man

658
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 4: coverage since twenty twenty for more and sharp early downs

659
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 4: forty two, touchdowns four interceptions against man. Coverage twenty seven,

660
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 4: touchdowns twenty nine interceptions against. Zone, okay, well now you

661
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 4: gotta PLAY.

662
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 3: Cj.

663
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 4: Stroud how does he?

664
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 3: Do?

665
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 4: Hey guess?

666
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:40,000
Speaker 3: WHAT.

667
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 4: Cj stroud against, zone which The jaguars don't play very.

668
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 1: MUCH.

669
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 4: Cj stroud lights it. Up number ONE qbr last, year

670
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 4: eighty ninth PERCENTILE pff against. Zone how about against, man

671
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:56,240
Speaker 4: the Thing jacksonville does do twenty seventh IN qbr a year,

672
00:33:56,280 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 4: ago seventeenth percentile against man IN. Pff so it's a

673
00:34:02,040 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 4: matchups play. Here it's also just a big line for

674
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 4: an early season division. GAME i don't really trust The texans.

675
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,439
Speaker 4: STILL i know we were on the island last, year

676
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 4: BUT i think this is going to come down to

677
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 4: the quarterbacks in a game where neither team can really

678
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 4: run the football right. Now and there's a lot of

679
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 4: trends already On jacksonville, here winless teams against non undefeated winning,

680
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,440
Speaker 4: teams sixty two percent against the spread From week, four

681
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 4: forward road teams after failing to cover with twenty four

682
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,879
Speaker 4: or more sixty two percent against the spread, Brighton we've

683
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 4: talked about this all. Year six six and a half

684
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 4: point road, underdogs just. Blind that is a spot to play.

685
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 4: Teams those teams are seven and one ats for the

686
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,480
Speaker 4: season play the money. Line, also we're getting over a

687
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 4: thirty PERCENT roi on the money. LINE i Like jacksonville.

688
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 4: HERE i THINK i will be looking At jacksonville to

689
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 4: win out right as. Well AND i don't think it's

690
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 4: going to stay at six and a half all week,

691
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 4: long SO i might lock this one early in the action.

692
00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 3: Out jacksonville Jack simville minus five and a. Half any takers?

693
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 4: THERE i, MEAN i don't want the six six and

694
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 4: a half because we're getting the key, numbers so we'll

695
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 4: see where it ends up. Later but it's still those

696
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 4: numbers on the. BOARDS i don't need to worry about

697
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 4: the five and a half just.

698
00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 3: Yet, NO i was saying minus five and a half the,

699
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 3: way you're, right brand all.

700
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,640
Speaker 4: RIGHT i like where your head is a let's, go let's,

701
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 4: go let's do The, Giants, Broncos let's go right back.

702
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 4: There jacksonville minus five and a. HALF i like.

703
00:35:23,239 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 3: It, sorry that's that's WHAT i was getting. At, yeah good, Call,

704
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 3: nick what say?

705
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 1: YOU i was gonna say the same. Thing, actually the

706
00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 1: hidden fourth Option jacksonville is also a lut rankings play this,

707
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:39,879
Speaker 1: week so in weeks three and. Four, now obviously week

708
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 1: three was a disaster for THE luckt rankings two and

709
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 1: five for unlucky teams that meet our, thresholds but that

710
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:49,360
Speaker 1: happens right when you're hitting at sixty seven percent or

711
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 1: sixty five. Percent you're still going to have two and five.

712
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,839
Speaker 1: Weeks and THE luckt rankings in weeks three and four

713
00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 1: traditionally have been at their highest sixty eight sixty nine

714
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 1: percent for THE luckt rankings the history in weeks three and.

715
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 1: Four So i'm still gonna trust the, process And i'm

716
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,760
Speaker 1: gonna take The Jacksonville jaguars as the unlucky team here

717
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:09,320
Speaker 1: on the, road and we have a little bit more

718
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 1: trends on the road teams as well with the luck.

719
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 1: Rankings and so, yeah right there With, brandon love this,

720
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 1: spot love the zone and man splits there that he,

721
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 1: Mentioned AND i think that was one of my feelings

722
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 1: in the handicap Of jacksonville Versus, buffalo was not considering

723
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 1: The Josh allen just absolutely destroying man coverage. Spot so you,

724
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,879
Speaker 1: know always good to be humbled by that and learn from,

725
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 1: it but to apply those, LEARNINGS i agree the similar FOR.

726
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:39,920
Speaker 1: Cj stroud he's much better versus zone than, man And

727
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 1: jacksonville plays the highest amount of man coverage in the.

728
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:45,319
Speaker 1: League i'm With, brandon take the six and a, half

729
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:49,240
Speaker 1: now take the money. Line but, also The Denver broncos

730
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:51,560
Speaker 1: are an unlucky team in the luck rankings as. WELL

731
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 1: i do have to point that. Out so maybe To

732
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,760
Speaker 1: brandon's point where he was teasing The jets don't feel

733
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: too comfortable with the, spread there are some signal On

734
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 1: denver covering versus The jets as, well because think about,

735
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 1: THIS i Know denver just won twenty six to seven

736
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 1: Against Tampa, bay but when you win by that, much

737
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 1: it's not because you got, lucky it's because you were. Better.

738
00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 1: Right So denver is still the third most unlucky team

739
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 1: in the luck, rankings even though they blew out The

740
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, buccaneers because in weeks one and two they

741
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 1: were very, unlucky and week three they were just they

742
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:26,720
Speaker 1: won because they should, have, Right so they overall stay

743
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 1: unlucky as on the season as a, Whole and so

744
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:33,279
Speaker 1: there's still the unlucky team here versus The jets by

745
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 1: our luck.

746
00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 3: Rankings and this ends the episode very well because you

747
00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:40,919
Speaker 3: let off the show about improved quarterback play and Then

748
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 3: Bonnicks Sean payton having a few weeks to get it.

749
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 3: Right nix only has one touchdown PASS i, think and

750
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 3: he's ran one in or ran two. In but uh it's.

751
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 3: Better but, man good good notes there by both of

752
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:53,919
Speaker 3: you about.

753
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 1: Stroudo that was a key point of taking The broncos

754
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,440
Speaker 1: to cover Versus Tampa. Bay it Was bonick improved from

755
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 1: week one to week. Two if you can maintain that

756
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 1: week two level or improve even more into week, three

757
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 1: The broncos were going to cover Vers Tampa bay and

758
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 1: they did. So hopefully we see more continued good play

759
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 1: from Bow. Nix there will be ups and, downs BUT

760
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:16,359
Speaker 1: i think you know that week two and week three

761
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 1: level from him will make The broncos a competent.

762
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 3: Team good and good note there also on The jacksonville

763
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 3: defense as far as their man. Coverage Joe brady cooked

764
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:28,239
Speaker 3: them up last Night Monday Night wow nine and. One

765
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 3: Joe brady nine and one now Or Josh allen nine

766
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 3: and one With Joe brady as his offensive. Coordinator All, right,

767
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 3: gents that's, It Nick, giffin thank you very much for stotting.

768
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 3: By i'm sure we'll get you on again at some,

769
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 3: point but Find Nick giffin in The Action network out

770
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:44,799
Speaker 3: find him actionnetwork dot. Com i'll lead college. Basketball that's

771
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:46,479
Speaker 3: what he also does here BECAUSE i forgot the first.

772
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:51,400
Speaker 3: Time The Action Discord, SERVER, NASCAR Nfl Luck, Rankings Brandon,

773
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 3: anderson he's back with, you first Thing friday morning FOR

774
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 3: Nfl week Four Best. Bets don't want to miss, That

775
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 3: brandon coming off nice, week and then we have the

776
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 3: recap Episode come In Your way first Thing monday. Morning

777
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 3: also The sunday six pack With rayvon And, stucky a

778
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 3: lot of. Stuff thanks for being with us FOR Nfl

779
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:15,239
Speaker 3: Roundtable week. Four Freendi glassheen signing author on The Action network.

780
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:34,320
Speaker 2: Podcast Action network reminds you please gamble.

781
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 3: Responsibly if you or someone you care about has a gambling,

782
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 3: problem help is available twenty four to seven at one

783
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 3: eight Hundred gambler