Speaker 1: Check it down Man Now Down Man Thursday Morning Eating
Speaker 1: the Book podcast, Megapod Live once a game from the D.
Speaker 1: We're at the day to day. We're supposed to be
Speaker 1: a circuit. We're at the D because well I don't
Speaker 1: know the Working as King still a circuit or more
Speaker 1: more specifically, Mikey is on a schedule today. He's got
Speaker 1: a meeting upstairs to the Deal on the twelfth floor.
Speaker 1: So we decided, why I push it, Let's just go
Speaker 1: to the D. But you have to you have to
Speaker 1: go to this meeting here pretty soon. So we're going
Speaker 1: to get all of mike stuff out of the way.
Speaker 1: We're gonna break forbad a little today, uh, and then
Speaker 1: we'll do a round table with me, Todd Wishnev and
Speaker 1: our rotating guest today. You may know him as producing
Speaker 1: number five from a numbers game and he hosts his
Speaker 1: own podcast called The Parlay Podcast. Where'd he get that
Speaker 1: name from? Jeff Parlay? How you doing, Jeff Gil, It's great,
Speaker 1: great to see everybody, Uh, and now actually knowing Todd,
Speaker 1: what what Todd's came and his mother's attic looks like
Speaker 1: I now actually have a better feel for the podcast today.
Speaker 1: I now actually familiar with all the surroundings that were,
Speaker 1: that that are that are in this podcast today. Jeff,
Speaker 1: please use the word cork when referring to the attic
Speaker 1: in which he does. Please. All right, mikey, uh. First
Speaker 1: of all, we have a we have a special This
Speaker 1: is lady gentleman, Mike Palm. Now thirty six hours since
Speaker 1: the Grand Circle opening. Mike, here is your introduction from
Speaker 1: the other night. He's a genius of all things. He
Speaker 1: knows which one is hall and which one's hopes. He
Speaker 1: knows what they call the coo cools and not just cool.
Speaker 1: He knows who started the fire, because we didn't start
Speaker 1: the fire. And if we didn't start the fire, who did?
Speaker 1: Was it lightening? He knows, ladies and gentleman the poll
Speaker 1: reader vice president out of a cloud of smoke, arms
Speaker 1: raised Mike Palm, everybody. He knows which one is hall
Speaker 1: and which one is oats. Introduced by the Great George
Speaker 1: Shay from the Hot Dog Eating Concepts. They're on Coney Island.
Speaker 1: How you know what, mikey wonderful, busy, busy. There's not
Speaker 1: enough hours in the day. Gil, I'm sorry, wasn't everything
Speaker 1: you imagine it to be yes and more and you
Speaker 1: still you still look like you're a little tired from it.
Speaker 1: I'm exhausted, exhaust I mean there's you wake up, you
Speaker 1: get two hours sleep, and there's thirty seven emails and
Speaker 1: eighteen texts and likes, and then you gotta slum with
Speaker 1: us and do this little picture megapod. Oh, it's nice.
Speaker 1: It's nice to see Jeff again. And you know, I
Speaker 1: had I was out on the pool deck yesterday. It
Speaker 1: was really the first day of stadium swim and I
Speaker 1: was sitting with a gentleman who was really enjoying the
Speaker 1: soccer games and and the atmosphere, and the people kept
Speaker 1: coming up and we hear you on visa and we
Speaker 1: listened to you on the megapod, and the number one
Speaker 1: question was, well, i'll phrase it, I can't your certain words.
Speaker 1: But the number one question was tell us about Todd?
Speaker 1: Is Todd really being Todd when he's on the air,
Speaker 1: And I said, he really is. I mean, that's his
Speaker 1: genuine self. There's no airs, there's no put on, you know.
Speaker 1: And there was a lot of positive comments about Todd,
Speaker 1: and and then there was something that weren't as as positive.
Speaker 1: But you know, I thought well, one guy said he's
Speaker 1: an exhausting listen. I said, well, you know, he's even
Speaker 1: more exhausting is a friend. But but still he's there.
Speaker 1: He's Mikeycorn for yourself. There is thank you, Todd. Than
Speaker 1: Chris Felika was on the Number Be the Big One,
Speaker 1: the Big Popcorn Todd. Chris Fliga was on the Numbers
Speaker 1: game this morning, and then he got the long segment
Speaker 1: on the Numbers Game. We hadn't had him on the
Speaker 1: long side of for a long time. The reserved for
Speaker 1: Paul Carr just because, so FeliCa said, I said, it
Speaker 1: was nice to talk to you on the long side,
Speaker 1: and he goes, yeah, thanks for you know, putting me
Speaker 1: ahead of prioritizing me, ahead of wishing it. Finally, so
Speaker 1: he's he's He threw a shout out to Todd as well.
Speaker 1: Todd your thoughts, I have listened. When you have as
Speaker 1: much talent as I do, you're gonna have people sling
Speaker 1: bows and arrows at you. It happens. You have to
Speaker 1: be okay with your talent and understand that other people
Speaker 1: are gonna get jealous. It's the same thing as when
Speaker 1: I was three hundred and thirty pounds and I would
Speaker 1: walk into a bar and there'll be a hot girl
Speaker 1: and her boyfriend standing there, and I would walk over
Speaker 1: and we would joke around and laugh. Everybody loves me.
Speaker 1: It's fantastic. Then I would get to be two hundred pounds,
Speaker 1: do the exact same thing, and all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: the dude gets very intimidated because there's a good looking
Speaker 1: guy standing near his girl. Same story with Mikey Palm.
Speaker 1: He feels a little threatened by my talent. And it's okay.
Speaker 1: We just had tipped to him all good. Mike just noted.
Speaker 1: He's like, yeah, okay, maybe very accurate, very accurate, very accurate.
Speaker 1: It's like white women have so many gay friends. You know,
Speaker 1: they're non threatening. It's non threatened. Todd at three thirty
Speaker 1: was non threatening. You know. People love to have him around.
Speaker 1: All right. So, uh, because Mike, he's on a schedule,
Speaker 1: so we hold let's let's let's hold on for the hijinks.
Speaker 1: Um okay. Survivor from three fifty three to three fifty
Speaker 1: I believe I think that at two of them were
Speaker 1: because they didn't put it in the entry. Again, again,
Speaker 1: how's this, How's it possible? It was almost like a
Speaker 1: perfect week. But there was nobody, no big upsets that
Speaker 1: nobody agains one person. One person had the Patriots, that's it.
Speaker 1: Everybody else through. There's somebody I knew that's in the
Speaker 1: circuit million two that didn't get their five picks in
Speaker 1: as well. Somebody that I know that was contending. Um,
Speaker 1: he was contending for quarterly and the second quarter didn't
Speaker 1: get his five picks. I mean he was like a
Speaker 1: point and a half out in the second quarter. Brutal.
Speaker 1: Is there any contest that have ever gone down to
Speaker 1: the wire and survivor with like hundreds of people still alive?
Speaker 1: Could happen this year? Could happen. But Thanksgiving, thanks you're
Speaker 1: saving grace. I never asked you directly, like do you
Speaker 1: guys look back at that and thank God we have
Speaker 1: this sink Thanksgiving rule. Well, a lot of people are
Speaker 1: not do not like it. But I think made the contest.
Speaker 1: Made the contest because you can plan until then, you
Speaker 1: can plan after. But that's a prayer that day. Um, Okay,
Speaker 1: by the way, circa everything that it was supposed to be,
Speaker 1: it was awesome. Everybody had a great time. I hope
Speaker 1: you didn't mind that a lot of us had, you know,
Speaker 1: regular ties on. It's not a little sore about it,
Speaker 1: aren't you. I'm upset I never got to see Debra. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I know. I was upset because I want I were
Speaker 1: there any pictures? Did you take any pictures? We took? No,
Speaker 1: not there. We took a couple at home. Yeah. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's the only thing. No. Everybody looked nice. What a
Speaker 1: good call to go black tie because when you dress well,
Speaker 1: you feel well. I already got everyone in a good
Speaker 1: mood being and in black tie and tuxedos and gowns
Speaker 1: and dressed up, and the women had their hair done
Speaker 1: and their makeup and all that. So that's my motto, Mikey,
Speaker 1: if I dress well, I feel well. That's definitely my motto.
Speaker 1: How come you never dress well? Because I don't agree
Speaker 1: with that statement. I'm not Martin Vance, Martin Vance Todd's
Speaker 1: personal Twitter fashion coach. Uh and Derek was great, great speech,
Speaker 1: He was all inclusive. Um, it was like a business plan.
Speaker 1: It was perfect. It was one recent host text to
Speaker 1: me or it's long enough, can you tell Derek, let's
Speaker 1: get it. I said, very grateful, You're very grateful, welcome
Speaker 1: for everything. You're welcome. You're welcome. You're welcome. Hi, Mikey,
Speaker 1: without further ado, your three best bets one, two, and three,
Speaker 1: and a brief explanation as to why these are your bets. Okay,
Speaker 1: I like, I'm gonna keep going with these overs. I
Speaker 1: think the over trends continue. Here's two teams that have
Speaker 1: bad defenses, the Titans and Bengals. I know it's a
Speaker 1: high number, fifty three and a half, but I like
Speaker 1: going over it again. I mean, I think you've seen
Speaker 1: how bad that Bengals defense is exposed the last couple
Speaker 1: of weeks against the Browns and then against the Colts
Speaker 1: when they couldn't hold a gift twenty one point lead.
Speaker 1: And I'm not I'm not convinced of this Tennessee Titans defense.
Speaker 1: I think that that that you know, they've they've done
Speaker 1: well with Tannehill, they've got the most out of them,
Speaker 1: but they can't get stops either. So I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: over there my second play. As I'm gonna say this,
Speaker 1: it's the number. What's the number in that one? Mikey? Well,
Speaker 1: I have fifty three and a half and a half,
Speaker 1: all right there? My second Okay, Todd, I have I've
Speaker 1: have had two minutes left. I have the Seahawks minus three.
Speaker 1: I think they bound. They bounced back at home against
Speaker 1: the fourth like, look at that's a tough loss. They
Speaker 1: controlled that whole game. They should have won it. And
Speaker 1: over it. I mean it was you know, Carol Bozo
Speaker 1: the Carroll uh, you know, finally reared his ugly head there.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's gotten away with a lot of stuff here.
Speaker 1: I still think this this offense is very explosive, and
Speaker 1: I don't think the forty Niners are gonna beat will
Speaker 1: slow them down. I think Seattle is going to get
Speaker 1: out to a quick start in this game now that
Speaker 1: they let Russell Wilson throw a forward pass in the
Speaker 1: first half this year. And so I'll lay there is
Speaker 1: a field goal time. I have it as a field
Speaker 1: goal reduced juice field goal. And then I this is
Speaker 1: probably maybe not my third best play, but I was
Speaker 1: just looking. I really like the Ravens over the Steelers
Speaker 1: this week. This this Steelers defense. I know the rematches
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving, uh, but I think this Ravens tea And
Speaker 1: you know, there's a handful of teams that have a
Speaker 1: good defense, and they're one of them. Um the Bears
Speaker 1: are another one. Anyhow, what are we giving him on
Speaker 1: that number? Is it three and a half or four?
Speaker 1: It's three and a half or four. Yeah, it's close.
Speaker 1: That's very that's very general. It's very very generous of
Speaker 1: you guys to do that. Um yeah, So I like
Speaker 1: the Ravens big this week. I think they crushed the Steelers.
Speaker 1: You know, this is a hatred hating game, the rivalry
Speaker 1: and all this uh off to buy. I just think
Speaker 1: that they're there'll be rested. Steelers had a tough game
Speaker 1: in Tennessee that could have went the other way as well.
Speaker 1: Um So, all those are my three picks. I'll have
Speaker 1: comments on that one later because I think I'll be
Speaker 1: picking that, but perhaps Todd's running it. Teaser Yeah, teaser
Speaker 1: packers is my packers is the first part of my
Speaker 1: teaser packers down to one? That okay with everybody? Can everybody?
Speaker 1: Can everybody agree on that number? Uh one? Green Bay
Speaker 1: and I haven't even boo uh Jesus is a tough one,
Speaker 1: just making it. How about how about Dolphins plus nine
Speaker 1: and a half? How about girls team the Miami Dolphins
Speaker 1: to Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins. I wasn't ready for my song.
Speaker 1: But I'll tell you, but I will tell you. I
Speaker 1: think they can hang with the golf ster. Who's you
Speaker 1: don't have any Thursday night thoughts? Do you tonight? No?
Speaker 1: My Thursday night thoughts are Let's see what stadium swim
Speaker 1: in the sports book looks like for our first NFL game.
Speaker 1: I'm I like the Eagle. You know I always fade
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. There's no number on this game. We don't
Speaker 1: know who's who's playing quarterback, but I'll probably lay the
Speaker 1: points with the Eagles when the number comes out. Uh,
Speaker 1: and the game I want nothing to do with. Uh?
Speaker 1: What was the Eagles one? What category did that fall under? Well?
Speaker 1: I would that would be a play if we had
Speaker 1: a number on it, but it's off the board everywhere.
Speaker 1: I have nine. I have nine all over the place. Yeah, okay, nine,
Speaker 1: I'd late nine. I'd lake ten. Dallas just a random
Speaker 1: bonus as a thought, one of my fading Dallas. Do
Speaker 1: you like the those hot Todd? I love the Eagles, BABYCC.
Speaker 1: Vinny Malula is starting a quarterback for Dallas. Yeah, Mayula
Speaker 1: Colts Lions. I don't want anything to do with good game.
Speaker 1: Could be a good game and favorite most likely lose outright?
Speaker 1: Favorite most likely to lose outright is none of them? Uh?
Speaker 1: What is it's? It's only the Packers of the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: Are the Bucks? Uh right? Or the Eagles? But no,
Speaker 1: they're not losing. Okay, I'll say the Bucks. No not really?
Speaker 1: Uh what else do I have left here? Green Bay?
Speaker 1: Is it like that? But I like Green you like?
Speaker 1: I'll say the Road I'll say the road team the
Speaker 1: Bucks there, alright? Or Tampa Bayampa, Tampa Bay could lo
Speaker 1: they could lose, they could lose. What your official pick
Speaker 1: is they Tampa Bay is the tam most likely to lose.
Speaker 1: Thank you everybody. Sorry to everybody, we didn't get to
Speaker 1: Bay alright, buddy continued success. Say hi to Sean Kavanaugh
Speaker 1: for me. Take care everyone, Thank you for your use
Speaker 1: your studio here. Thank you, sir, Mike, paulm everybody. Uh,
Speaker 1: he's got a thing. He's a very busy man. They
Speaker 1: just opened a brand new casino for God's sake, So
Speaker 1: let's give my pass on that. So it's just the
Speaker 1: three of us, gentlemen. Um Todd is the I want
Speaker 1: the update on on everybody? Please start, yes, please? Okay,
Speaker 1: So last week. The Gilly Ice Man did a great
Speaker 1: job with a nice two and one to move himself
Speaker 1: to nine eleven and one and teasers win again. Six
Speaker 1: and one for Gil, Mikey moved to two and one,
Speaker 1: two and one again, he moved to twelve eight and one.
Speaker 1: Very solid by Mikey, and he's won his teaser. He's
Speaker 1: also six and one on teasers. And I also had
Speaker 1: a two and one week to move to nine and
Speaker 1: twelve and my teaser one as well, so I'm also
Speaker 1: six and one. So all three of us are six
Speaker 1: and one on teasers, which is quite interesting. Why did
Speaker 1: I see that one of us? Someone someone on Twitter
Speaker 1: logs our picks and he called yours five one and one.
Speaker 1: Did he give you a push on the teaser or something?
Speaker 1: I don't I don't know what why he did that,
Speaker 1: because easily there were all six of one. All right, um,
Speaker 1: all right. By the way, Jeff Parlay, the name of
Speaker 1: the podcast is the Parlay Podcast. How's that going for you?
Speaker 1: Going going pretty well? Gil, all things considered? And uh,
Speaker 1: obviously we're with a book at sports Are app is
Speaker 1: coming on Sunday, so that that will be a lot
Speaker 1: of fun. But the podcast is going well, and uh,
Speaker 1: and I'll say this, and I wish Mike was here
Speaker 1: for this. I missed the hell out of you, Gil.
Speaker 1: I missed the hell out of Mike. It was great
Speaker 1: to see Todd a few weeks ago when Todd destroyed
Speaker 1: me in tennis, which was probably the least surprising result
Speaker 1: of the last six months for anything that has happened
Speaker 1: with any of us, I'll give I'll give u the
Speaker 1: former big man, some credit on that one there, Todd, Todd,
Speaker 1: were you down to wait? Wise, I've been. I've been
Speaker 1: around two forty six for the last three weeks because
Speaker 1: I haven't played tennis once. Because right after I whooped
Speaker 1: up on Mr Parl's six oh six oh six wine,
Speaker 1: I knew that was kind. I got one game, Come on,
Speaker 1: you gave it to me at the end. I got
Speaker 1: the first I got legitimately the first game we played,
Speaker 1: six O six or whatever. The bottom line is, he
Speaker 1: got crushed. And after he got crushed, a couple of
Speaker 1: days later, I got a real bad hamstring injury. So
Speaker 1: I haven't been able to play. But I'm still hanging
Speaker 1: in at around two nice. I'm hanging in right where
Speaker 1: I was too, but starting to eat a little more.
Speaker 1: I'm a little worried I might be going to the
Speaker 1: other direction. Um, all right, parlay you now or either
Speaker 1: of you ever coming back to Las Vegas. Yes, I
Speaker 1: will be back. I will be back before the end
Speaker 1: of the year. I will be back before the end
Speaker 1: of the year. Um My, my girlfriend Margaret, who both
Speaker 1: of you know, has a has a physical therapy clinical
Speaker 1: that starts in the new year in Las Vegas. So
Speaker 1: we will definitely be there at the year's end to
Speaker 1: the beginning of next year for sure. God, I mean
Speaker 1: I I don't know exactly. I don'n't really have any
Speaker 1: plans right now exactly what's going to happen. I will
Speaker 1: tell you this. I am enjoying the hell out to
Speaker 1: be able to do things like betting team totals in
Speaker 1: game betting all kinds of incredible offerings that they have
Speaker 1: at FanDuel and draft Kings and this one and that
Speaker 1: one and the other one, and uh, it's just gonna
Speaker 1: feel like when I if I come back to Vegas,
Speaker 1: like I'm going back in time. I just totally get it, man,
Speaker 1: I totally get me. For people who are just in
Speaker 1: Vegas all the time and they don't understand the offerings
Speaker 1: that are out there. It's just unbelievable. Yeah, it's uh,
Speaker 1: it's primitive here, it's primitive, and they don't view it
Speaker 1: as as competition because they think they're their own ecosystem.
Speaker 1: But once one of those operators, let's say it's a
Speaker 1: Draft Kings or whoever shows up. Obviously Circuit does the
Speaker 1: best job out here by far. But if you if
Speaker 1: if one of those operators comes in here, I mean,
Speaker 1: everybody's gonna have to be forced to innovate. It's like,
Speaker 1: why do I get ahead of that? It's very strange,
Speaker 1: very strange how the VET operates. And also why not
Speaker 1: have all the offerings for people? I mean, people love
Speaker 1: to bet when there's things to bet on, yeah, you know,
Speaker 1: I mean it's like, yeah, it's it just doesn't make
Speaker 1: any sense. It's like, you know, they could buy the
Speaker 1: same service the DraftKings is buying. Right. I don't have
Speaker 1: an explanation. I really don't. I really there's no good
Speaker 1: explanation for it. Um. But again, shout out to Matt
Speaker 1: metcalf in the whole crew at Circle for doing their
Speaker 1: best to innovate and really running a sports book the
Speaker 1: way it's supposed to be run. Um, but it's just
Speaker 1: it's a strange ecosystem, man, for sure, let's do it,
Speaker 1: Ben MGM. I've never been on bet mgm s app.
Speaker 1: Do they have any like different offerings? And they do,
Speaker 1: but you know, Ben MGM and Ben MGM would even
Speaker 1: admit this New Jersey is not always the same as Nevada,
Speaker 1: so sometimes their new Jersey offerings are different or better
Speaker 1: than Nevada. But I will say this, I will give
Speaker 1: Ben MGM a lot of credit. They sponsor a numbers
Speaker 1: game too, so let me just be full disclosure here.
Speaker 1: Uh and DraftKings does sponsor Primetime Action, so I'm not
Speaker 1: just mentioning them because of that. But Ben MGM did
Speaker 1: a great job through baseball season. I thought here in
Speaker 1: Nevada keeping up like Awards pro when no one else did.
Speaker 1: So they surprise you a lot. They're like, oh wow,
Speaker 1: you can still bet Corey Seeger, you know, throughout the
Speaker 1: sixty game season. Um. By the way, Corey Seeger completely
Speaker 1: trolling me with my m v P picks at thirty
Speaker 1: to one when he got the m v P in
Speaker 1: both the nlcs of the World Series. But it's it's
Speaker 1: there's they will surprise you a bet MGM in Nevada.
Speaker 1: But sometimes Ben MGM New Jersey will have some great
Speaker 1: things and we don't have it here, So you know,
Speaker 1: I don't know. It's very it's all very strange still here.
Speaker 1: Just uh, you know, one and a half years after
Speaker 1: the overturning of Pasma. Let's do our picks, boys, because
Speaker 1: I got stuff to say about Survivor and teasers and
Speaker 1: all that. Well, let's start with our best bets. We'll
Speaker 1: do one to three here, parlay as all as we
Speaker 1: start with the guests, what is your number one best
Speaker 1: bet sider total in weekate? Sir? Number one is one
Speaker 1: that Mike picked and I agreed with him on that.
Speaker 1: The Seattle Seahawks lane three against the San Francisco forty Niners. Uh,
Speaker 1: it feels too good in all honesty, it feels like
Speaker 1: a little bit of an overreaction to what we saw
Speaker 1: last week. The Niners beat the but Jesus of a
Speaker 1: New England team that just, let's face it, the Patriots stink.
Speaker 1: That was just the Niners enforced their will on a
Speaker 1: bad team and and one easily the Seahawks. They controlled
Speaker 1: that game. Russell Wilson threw three really bad interceptions that
Speaker 1: we normally don't see him even make one play like
Speaker 1: that in the game, and he made three horrible plays
Speaker 1: and they still lost on a field goal in the
Speaker 1: last minute of overtime and one by the way, Arizona
Speaker 1: needed a ten point come back in the last five
Speaker 1: minutes of regulation even get toot So Seattle to me
Speaker 1: laying only a field goal at home against the Niner
Speaker 1: team that is still banged up, and a Niner team
Speaker 1: that I'm still not convinced is all that good this
Speaker 1: year because of those injuries. Out of lay to three
Speaker 1: very happily with Seattle. Those are three of the worst
Speaker 1: passes of Russell Wilson's career. That was You're like, oh, wow,
Speaker 1: he's a human being after all, Todd, your number one,
Speaker 1: my number one pick is going to be. Let me
Speaker 1: just decide here. I'm gonna go with I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: with the Eagles. Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Eagles.
Speaker 1: Eagle minus nine. Uh. You know, the Cowboys can't cover
Speaker 1: a game, and I'm always you know, nervous betting in
Speaker 1: the NFL against a team that's never covered. And sooner
Speaker 1: or later they will. I'm sure cover a game, but
Speaker 1: Ben de Nucci, Ben de Nucci, are you serious? This
Speaker 1: team is incredible. They couldn't protect Andy Dalton. Now they're
Speaker 1: gonna protect Ben de Nucci. I mean, gives me a break.
Speaker 1: I'm the Eagles. I'm not saying the Eagles are a
Speaker 1: great team by any means, but they're mediocre. But they
Speaker 1: should be able to slap the hell out of Ben
Speaker 1: de Nucci, I would think, especially at home. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's ridiculous, and it's not like their defense is any good,
Speaker 1: So you know, why not late the nine? Give me
Speaker 1: Dallas minus nine. You know, I know it's obvious, I mean,
Speaker 1: Eagles minus nine. I know it's obvious, but uh, I
Speaker 1: mean I think it's just bend Nucci. Come on, they
Speaker 1: gotta be kidding. Andy Dalton remains in concussion protocol. So
Speaker 1: as we do this Thursday morning, it is Ben Denucci. Uh.
Speaker 1: Here's a trivia question. By the way, Free boys ready
Speaker 1: for this, who leads among NFC East quarterbacks who leads
Speaker 1: the division in yards passing this year? Let me guess
Speaker 1: Kyle Allen Jeffrey. My guests would probably be uh, well, no,
Speaker 1: it would be Dak Prescott probably right. Dak Prescott still
Speaker 1: leads the NFC East in yards passing. Yeah, there there
Speaker 1: just gives you a sense of a division that the
Speaker 1: Eagles lead to four and one, Cowboys and Washington Football
Speaker 1: Teamers are two and five and their Giants bringing up
Speaker 1: the rear one and six. By the way, there is
Speaker 1: a prop over a DraftKings and we've talked about this
Speaker 1: for a couple of weeks. Now, what will the eventual
Speaker 1: NFC East winner have total wins? And it's at seven
Speaker 1: and a half. And last week the under was at
Speaker 1: plus one thirty seven. I was like, go under. This
Speaker 1: week the under is at plus one oh five. Not
Speaker 1: quite as much bang for your buck, but still plus money.
Speaker 1: I would still take the under, wouldn't you. I would
Speaker 1: take under seven because the worst you're gonna happen is
Speaker 1: a push. They're not getting eight because you got all
Speaker 1: those teams, Eagles, Washington Football Teamers, and Cowboys all would
Speaker 1: have to go six and three down the stretch. Giants
Speaker 1: would have to go seven and two. I mean, the
Speaker 1: only scenario schedules. I haven't looked at the schedules, but
Speaker 1: I can't sdules are difficult to begin with anyway. I
Speaker 1: that's under seven and a half plus money. It feels
Speaker 1: like a really good bet. They can. They get to
Speaker 1: beat up on each other, they get they get a
Speaker 1: lot of inherent winds right within the division, so they
Speaker 1: do get some wins because they get to play each other.
Speaker 1: So there's that, but still six and three. The only
Speaker 1: scenario I can see, and I was saying this this morning,
Speaker 1: is let's say somehow the Cowboys upset the Eagles this week.
Speaker 1: Just play along with me, because you know, the Eagles
Speaker 1: barely beat the Giants to some say, some would argue
Speaker 1: shouldn't have. Let's say that Cowboys somehow win and then
Speaker 1: before the trade deadline they pick up Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's
Speaker 1: the only way I can see it happening. But it's
Speaker 1: currently constituted. That's an under no doubt to me, I
Speaker 1: love it under I agree. The other point I was
Speaker 1: making was I did a little research on this. So
Speaker 1: if you win the NFC East, you get a home playoff,
Speaker 1: a which is comical to begin with. You also can
Speaker 1: only pick at best nineteen in the draft, no better
Speaker 1: than nineteen, and if you don't win the NFC East,
Speaker 1: you're gonna have a top ten pick. Most likely. Why
Speaker 1: would you want to win this division? That's a huge
Speaker 1: gap between ten and nineteen. That's awful anyway, random NFC's thoughts.
Speaker 1: My number one pick is that I'm gonna debate between
Speaker 1: my three which I like the best. Uh. What I
Speaker 1: did guessing lines on Monday. We didn't have Chrissy this
Speaker 1: week because Chrissie tested positive. For those who missed it,
Speaker 1: Chris Andrews tested positive for the coronavirus. The last guy
Speaker 1: we want to test positive for corona. By the way,
Speaker 1: he is doing better. He said, I still has coughing, fits,
Speaker 1: still has some other sort of intestinal stuff going on,
Speaker 1: but he says he's feeling better. We hope to hap
Speaker 1: him next week. So when we did a bastardized version
Speaker 1: of guessing lines on Monday, this was the line. The
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Baltimore line was the line that I could not understand.
Speaker 1: Five and a half. I was like, it's three and
Speaker 1: a half at worst. Where do they get five and
Speaker 1: a half from? I thought three. I still like Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: at three and a half, even at four, and obviously
Speaker 1: even at four, which we're seeing it's sort of toggling
Speaker 1: between those two. But let's say it's three and a half.
Speaker 1: I like the Pittsburgh Steelers, but I will concede this.
Speaker 1: It is always favorable in any sport, but certainly in
Speaker 1: the NFL to take a lead early. I don't think
Speaker 1: there's ever been a matchup where having the lead early
Speaker 1: will mean more. Baltimore is the quintessential come from a
Speaker 1: head team. They're a great front running team. They're a
Speaker 1: terrible come from behind team. They're not constituted with Lamar
Speaker 1: Jackson to come from behind. Conversely, Pittsburgh could not have
Speaker 1: been more dominant against Tennessee last week. First quarter and
Speaker 1: change when they were up fourteen to nothing. It was
Speaker 1: one and sixty total yards to one, and they were
Speaker 1: dominating the clock. I think the one three and out
Speaker 1: that Tennessee had only had a minute twenty one. So
Speaker 1: it was this unbelievable dominance at the beginning of the
Speaker 1: game for Pittsburgh. That was why they held on to
Speaker 1: win that game against Tennessee because Big Ben had some
Speaker 1: mistakes at the end of the first half of the
Speaker 1: end of the game. So for me, this game will
Speaker 1: be very interesting to see who who starts out on top,
Speaker 1: because that might dictate the rest of the football game.
Speaker 1: In fact, I would imagine it would. So Pittsburgh is
Speaker 1: the pick plus three and a half. I think if
Speaker 1: they get ahead early, they cover that. If they fall behind,
Speaker 1: you might know very early that it's a bad pick.
Speaker 1: But I'll take Pittsburgh plus the three and a half.
Speaker 1: You're giving me three and a half as the only
Speaker 1: undefeated team in the NFL. I will take that three
Speaker 1: and a half, knowing Baltimore's weakness if they fall behind.
Speaker 1: So that's my number one pick. Number two, Jeffrey, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go to tonight. I I know going on Thursday
Speaker 1: night games is usually not a popular move, but Carolina
Speaker 1: laying only now it's a consensus one and a half.
Speaker 1: Now with Carolina laying that against the Falcons, I'll think
Speaker 1: the Panthers very happily laying only one and a half.
Speaker 1: Caroline is going to score thirty points in this game,
Speaker 1: and the Falcons at this point, even if they have
Speaker 1: a lead in the fourth quarter, there's about a sevent
Speaker 1: a chance they're gonna blow it anyway. So I like Carolina.
Speaker 1: They're the better football team. The only concern is that
Speaker 1: deep defense stage, but you don't want I trust Teddy Bridgewater.
Speaker 1: I think d J. Moore and Robby Anderson both have
Speaker 1: huge games against that bad secondary. So I'll take Carolina
Speaker 1: minus one and a half very happily tonight. Teddy Bridgewater
Speaker 1: on Sunday against the Saints, it was twenty seven to
Speaker 1: twenty four, which was the eventual final score, but it's
Speaker 1: four Bridgewater, who was twenty three of twenty eight on
Speaker 1: the game for two fifty two touchdowns, no pick in
Speaker 1: a sack. He had a third and eleven. The Panthers
Speaker 1: had third and eleven at the Saints thirty nine down
Speaker 1: and the play before the two minute warning on third
Speaker 1: and eleven, he takes an eight yard sack and that
Speaker 1: was the That was the game right there, because coming
Speaker 1: back from the two minute warning break, they attempt a
Speaker 1: sixty five yard field will attempt from Joey Sly that
Speaker 1: probably goes sixty three and a half yards and so
Speaker 1: as long as he learns not to take that sack,
Speaker 1: uh sky's the limit for Teddy Bridgewater. By the way,
Speaker 1: we did, we didn't do the Thursday night segment because
Speaker 1: we're all out of We're all fora cocta on the
Speaker 1: format today. But the only thing that I'm doing tonight
Speaker 1: I'm doing a Falcon's over tease. I already put that
Speaker 1: bed in tease me through the three of the seven.
Speaker 1: Give me the over Falcons over tease, Todd number two.
Speaker 1: My number two pick is going to be this Chicago
Speaker 1: Bears the Bears. I'm gonna go with the Bears. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know I was down on the Bears earlier. I
Speaker 1: kept saying they were a joke. Um. I sort of
Speaker 1: had a chance to take advantage of that by betting
Speaker 1: the Rams at halftime, and then, like an idiot, I
Speaker 1: got off of it. But I I didn't like the Bears.
Speaker 1: But in this spot, I'm gonna take the Bears because
Speaker 1: I'm getting four and a half points. And here's the thing.
Speaker 1: I don't think New Orleans is that good, and I
Speaker 1: certainly don't think they're that good outside on grass there.
Speaker 1: New Orleans to me, has always been a turf team.
Speaker 1: You put Drew Brees on grass and things seem to
Speaker 1: not go as well for that team historically. Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: the Bears have a real nice defense. It's not like
Speaker 1: the Saints are stopping anybody. Carolina scored a million on
Speaker 1: him last week. Everybody who played the Saints this year
Speaker 1: scored a lot of points. If the Saints are going
Speaker 1: to give up points, it's gonna be hard to win
Speaker 1: by four and a half. And as well as on
Speaker 1: on top of that, I don't know that the Saints
Speaker 1: are gonna go gangbusters on the road in the cold
Speaker 1: in Chicago. You know, four and a half is a
Speaker 1: lot in an NFL game, especially against the team that
Speaker 1: has a nice defense. Give me the Bears. The Bears
Speaker 1: plus four and a half. I can't say I expected
Speaker 1: that one, but the Bears plus four and a half.
Speaker 1: By the way, just looking up at the screens, the
Speaker 1: weekly COVID report, and this has everything to do with
Speaker 1: people who are in contests, uh, people who are in
Speaker 1: survivor especially who have to be really aware of of
Speaker 1: COVID outbreaks and if it might postpone a game because
Speaker 1: of all the contest rules. Uh. The Chargers had one
Speaker 1: positive COVID test this morning, and apparently the Giants have
Speaker 1: multiple on their team in the front office, so just
Speaker 1: keep that in mind. UM. Giants scheduled to play the
Speaker 1: Bucks on Monday night. The Charger schedule to play Denver
Speaker 1: in an afternoon game. UH, this coming Sunday, Week number eight,
Speaker 1: my number two pick is call me crazy. I'll leave
Speaker 1: some room for you guys. Call me crazy. I'm taking
Speaker 1: the New England Patriots plus three and a half against
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills. And I know the Patriots look like ass.
Speaker 1: They just look terrible. Um. I shouldn't really diminish very
Speaker 1: nice looking asses perhaps, but New England plus three and
Speaker 1: a half to me, Buffalo is the most one dimensional
Speaker 1: team in football, and offensively, uh Josh Allen tucking the
Speaker 1: ball under and running is by far their best play
Speaker 1: on offense. And what have we talked about with Bill
Speaker 1: Belichick through the years. The one thing that he is
Speaker 1: great at is taking away the offense is strength. You're
Speaker 1: gonna beat me, beat me with other options, not with
Speaker 1: your best. And I know New England's stats last week,
Speaker 1: worst start since two thousand now currently first three game
Speaker 1: losing streaks since two thousand two. Belichick with his worst
Speaker 1: home loss last week as a Patriot's head coach by
Speaker 1: twenty seven points to the Niners. Out gained by two
Speaker 1: two yards in the first half by the Niners. It's
Speaker 1: the worst first half differential under Belichick ever. But I
Speaker 1: like him against this Bill's offense, which could not get
Speaker 1: into the end zone against your New York Jets. Jeffrey
Speaker 1: couldn't get in there. I had Buffalo and survivor one
Speaker 1: of the men who had Buffalo and survivor. And I
Speaker 1: will say this, on the one hand, it was the
Speaker 1: least sweat filled one score survivor win ever, survivor advancement ever,
Speaker 1: because the Jets got four yards of offense four total
Speaker 1: yards of offense in the second half against the Bills,
Speaker 1: so it really felt like even though one flukey play
Speaker 1: could have beaten the Bills, it was never in doubt.
Speaker 1: On the other hand, did say more about the Jets
Speaker 1: or did say more about the Bills, I'm not really
Speaker 1: quite sure. I like the Patriots, and this game is
Speaker 1: everything for New England. They lose this, their season is done. Zo.
Speaker 1: It's that dire. I'll take the three and a half
Speaker 1: New England. My second dog of the day is Yeah,
Speaker 1: no issue with that pick at all. I'm with Todd.
Speaker 1: I kind of like the spot for the Patriots the
Speaker 1: h and also to It's Bell, We've never seen a
Speaker 1: Belichick team in this scenario where their season is on
Speaker 1: the line this early in the year. So I'm getting
Speaker 1: three and a half against a Buffalo team. Then again,
Speaker 1: like you said, one dimensional with Alan just really using
Speaker 1: his feed more than his arm. I have no problem
Speaker 1: with that, and as I give that pick right up
Speaker 1: on the screen as if on cue. Julian Edelman will
Speaker 1: not play this weekend for the Patriots with his knee
Speaker 1: injury in case there was any doubt about his data,
Speaker 1: So he is, he is out. But I am taking
Speaker 1: the Patriots plus three and a half is my number
Speaker 1: two pick, Jeff number three. I I can't believe I'm
Speaker 1: doing this on on in public in anything, guys, but
Speaker 1: my number three pick is the Kansas City Chiefs minus
Speaker 1: nineteen and a half against my Jets, because because here's
Speaker 1: the deal. How the Jets scoring more than a touchdown
Speaker 1: in this game, and that's how they have four yards
Speaker 1: of offense like you said against the Bills defense. That
Speaker 1: let's face, the Bill's defense has not been good this year,
Speaker 1: and the Jets moved the ball for four American football
Speaker 1: yards in the second half, which should be impossible at
Speaker 1: the NFL level regardless of how awful you are. And
Speaker 1: Kansas City keeping this in mind with Kansas City, the
Speaker 1: Chief's offense last week didn't do a lot against Denver.
Speaker 1: They scored on a short field at the end with
Speaker 1: his backups, a pick six and a kick return, So
Speaker 1: they're coming off a not great offensive performance. A week
Speaker 1: before they ran all over Buffalo, so Mahomes has not
Speaker 1: had a mahomesy and performance in a while. This feels
Speaker 1: like Kansas City's up twenty eight nothing immediately, and the
Speaker 1: only way I'm sweating is if Chad hand He plays
Speaker 1: the whole second half and scores the Jets a touchdown
Speaker 1: with a pick six. So I'm I'm doing it. I'm
Speaker 1: laying in the nineteen and a half with Kansas City.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's enough. I thought it should have
Speaker 1: been twenty three, Gill, I really did. I thought there
Speaker 1: should have been twenty three with Kansas City. So nineteen
Speaker 1: and a half, I'm getting four and a half better.
Speaker 1: At four and a half points better than I thought.
Speaker 1: I'll lay it. I would have guessed twenty one on
Speaker 1: guessing lines. That would have been my guest twenty one.
Speaker 1: But it's nine score Kansas City Chiefs twenty six Jet
Speaker 1: at seven Ye right now totally and Chad Headie throws
Speaker 1: his pick six with three and a half minutes left. Um,
Speaker 1: remember last year, similar scenario, Week three Jets lane excuse me,
Speaker 1: Patriots lane twenty and a half against the Jets in
Speaker 1: Week three and the Jets did not have an offensive
Speaker 1: touchdown but covered because they were covered a fumble on
Speaker 1: a punt in the end zone for a touchdown and
Speaker 1: Jack that resolutely remind me of that game. I had
Speaker 1: Jets under team total ten and a half in that
Speaker 1: game the Patriots mus twenty and a half and that
Speaker 1: one and it's thart speaking of speaking of props, that
Speaker 1: there is an O N sixteen prop out there. There's
Speaker 1: a sixteen and oh but the no is like ridiculously cartoonish,
Speaker 1: uh cartoonishly used Pittsburgh's not going sixteen. But there's an
Speaker 1: O N sixteen one that has existed now for a
Speaker 1: few weeks. And it existed when the Giants and Falcons
Speaker 1: were both winless as well, and it was for the
Speaker 1: Jets specifically, or was it all three? I can't remember.
Speaker 1: I think it was a Jet specifically at that time,
Speaker 1: because there was one with all three and I said, well,
Speaker 1: the Falcons are gonna win a couple of games, at
Speaker 1: least a few games, And the Giants were favored that
Speaker 1: week against Washington. They ended up winning, so it really
Speaker 1: did come down to the Jets, and you could have
Speaker 1: gotten them at north of plus seven hundred to go
Speaker 1: o N sixteen, And I was like, you gotta play that.
Speaker 1: It's a great you know, it would be a fun bet.
Speaker 1: Not mathematically great, but it's a fun bet for people
Speaker 1: having if you look at their schedule. It was the
Speaker 1: second Miami game where you're like, well, if that would
Speaker 1: be Twah's first game, maybe you could see the Jets
Speaker 1: winning that game. Uh, now it's plus two thirty five.
Speaker 1: I believe on the Jets going oh in sixteen, which
Speaker 1: mathematically is a horrible number. However, uh, trying not to
Speaker 1: be too close to the sun and realize that people
Speaker 1: just like fun bets sometimes. If you look at the
Speaker 1: Jet schedule, they gotta lose nine more games, um, nine
Speaker 1: more games or ten more games? What are they? Seven? Yeah?
Speaker 1: And seven nine more games? And you look at the
Speaker 1: schedule like, where's the loss And the only thing we
Speaker 1: could come up with was if you bet the plus
Speaker 1: money on the no, which again mathematically is not great,
Speaker 1: but it's still a fun bet. Week seventeen might be
Speaker 1: the problem because if New England doesn't have anything to
Speaker 1: play for. In Week seventeen, maybe they play without any
Speaker 1: care motivation and the Jets sneak in a win after
Speaker 1: being oh in fifteen to kill those bets. But other
Speaker 1: than that, do you see a loss? Would the manual
Speaker 1: nine team parlay make you even more money if you
Speaker 1: just bet against the Jets every week on the money?
Speaker 1: What I'm saying, mathematically, I've said it several times. Mathematically
Speaker 1: it's terrible bet right plus two thirty five should be
Speaker 1: way better than that. But some people are like, I
Speaker 1: don't care. You know, we as we immerse ourselves in gambling,
Speaker 1: we have to realize there's a lot of audience out there.
Speaker 1: It's just like, I just want fun bets. I just
Speaker 1: don't see lost. Besides that one Daryl and all honesty,
Speaker 1: where the wind may come from for him? Uh? The
Speaker 1: Bear and I were tweeting back at this a few
Speaker 1: weeks ago, when it was apparent that this could very
Speaker 1: easily happen. Week sixteen, the Jets host Cleveland. I could
Speaker 1: very much see a scenario where the Browns need a
Speaker 1: win to stay in the playoffs and the Jets win
Speaker 1: that game just because of course you'll have and also
Speaker 1: to make matters worse on that. I wouldn't be shocked
Speaker 1: Gil if Jacksonville at this point goes one in fifteen
Speaker 1: and they're gonna have an easier schedule than the Jets.
Speaker 1: So in order for the Jets to get the number
Speaker 1: one pick and get the rights to Trevor Lawrence, in
Speaker 1: all likelihood, they gotta go lose out at this point,
Speaker 1: I really do think that, Gil. So there's a lot
Speaker 1: on the line for the Jets going oh in sixteen,
Speaker 1: including those bets, which look again, I don't unless of
Speaker 1: Vegas really lays an egg on an east coast trip
Speaker 1: in the first week of December. Ah, that week seventeen thing.
Speaker 1: But Belichick will have this guys ready to play against
Speaker 1: the Jets, you know how he hates them. So I
Speaker 1: don't know. I don't see a win on this schedule
Speaker 1: at this point. I really don't Where are we, guys,
Speaker 1: in terms of where we are the rotation. Jeff did
Speaker 1: a third pick third, Jeff. Jeff gave three, Mikey gave
Speaker 1: three me, and you gave to Gil. Okay, so you
Speaker 1: want me to give my third, yes, sir. First of all,
Speaker 1: I want to just say before you give my third
Speaker 1: What the hell did Mikey talking about? Is Todd really
Speaker 1: like that? What do you mean informative and entertaining? Yeah,
Speaker 1: Todd's exactly like that. Informative and entertaining. What the hell
Speaker 1: are they talking about? I don't know. I don't know.
Speaker 1: You know, I love you, Toddy. You know what. I'm
Speaker 1: tired of people. I really am tired of people. Tired
Speaker 1: of people. People. Didn't you want to say on on
Speaker 1: one of your first Numbers Game appearances, didn't you? I said?
Speaker 1: People suck? And I think you responded with people one
Speaker 1: of the worst inventions ever. Terrible inventions. Terrible Anyways, Uh,
Speaker 1: my third pick I am going to go. I'm really
Speaker 1: torn between taking Carolina along with Jeffrey, but since Jeffrey
Speaker 1: took Carolina, I'm gonna do the other pick that I like,
Speaker 1: which is the Detroit Motown Lions. Give me the Lions
Speaker 1: under the Radar. They won for me last week and
Speaker 1: that heartbreaking, crazy like heart attack game with the ridiculous
Speaker 1: Todd Gurley nonsense when I had the plus four at
Speaker 1: halftime and then I had to watch them score when
Speaker 1: they shouldn't score and get the two point conversion to
Speaker 1: break my heart, and then come down and get the
Speaker 1: great catch at the eight r line, and then Matt
Speaker 1: Stafford on the last play playing Matthew Ice. Baby. That's
Speaker 1: Matthew Ice, not Maddie Ice, the real Matthew Ice Baby
Speaker 1: Ice Man. Anyways, Lions I think are a little bit
Speaker 1: better than people realize. Had they beaten the Bears that
Speaker 1: game earlier in the year, they would have a respectable record.
Speaker 1: I think the Lions are really not that bad a
Speaker 1: football team. I think they're pretty decent. And you now
Speaker 1: have Philly Rivers going on the road. We've all seen
Speaker 1: Philly Rivers before the Philly Rivers show, right, don't you
Speaker 1: know what this game could look like late? You know,
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers driving down and do does something stupid, and
Speaker 1: you know, you go, nice job betting against phil Rivers.
Speaker 1: Give me Detroit lines. I know Indiapolis is good, but
Speaker 1: are they Are they really good enough to be laying
Speaker 1: two and a half minus twenty five? Why the way?
Speaker 1: What line do you have? The real line is really
Speaker 1: three for me if you look at the juice. Uh yeah,
Speaker 1: but it's two and a half extra juice. Okay, fine,
Speaker 1: So I'll just say I don't even care. I don't
Speaker 1: even need the three. Give me the two and a
Speaker 1: half with the Detroit lines. I'd much rather have the three.
Speaker 1: And if I was playing this for real, I would
Speaker 1: play play it with the three because you got all
Speaker 1: that juice there. But um, you know, give me the Detrod.
Speaker 1: I don't think the culture that good. They should be
Speaker 1: going on the road, you know, to beat the decent team.
Speaker 1: The lines are really not that bad. Why were they?
Speaker 1: Why were the Why were the cults so obsessed with
Speaker 1: getting Philip was? I know you refused to call him Philip,
Speaker 1: You going Philip Philly, but like they didn't. They didn't
Speaker 1: even look for anybody Else's like Philip Rivers, that's our guy.
Speaker 1: It's like every sports better was like, why why are
Speaker 1: you doing this? Why are you doing it? Could be
Speaker 1: because he won a lot of games against the Colts
Speaker 1: in his career. I remember a bunch of games. I
Speaker 1: don't know if you remember this, but when Peyton Manning
Speaker 1: was with the Colts, they the Chargers played them a
Speaker 1: number of times as big dogs and played them very tough.
Speaker 1: Maybe that was it. I don't know, because I don't
Speaker 1: see it. I think he's he's I mean, pass this
Speaker 1: time years ago. Let's let's go back to that thing
Speaker 1: you were talking about with Todd Gurley again. I'm sure
Speaker 1: everybody is well aware Todd Gurley with the with the
Speaker 1: Falcons up and there by the way, NFL Films has
Speaker 1: the audio of of Matt Ryan in the huddle saying
Speaker 1: just remember first down and go down, first down and
Speaker 1: go down, and uh he said, don't score, Yeah, don't score.
Speaker 1: And Todd Gurley was right next to him. I don't
Speaker 1: know if he heard it. I don't even acknowledge that
Speaker 1: he remembered to split second too late, right, just like
Speaker 1: Devin Ford of Penn State the day before it did
Speaker 1: against Indiana to put Penn State up twenty to twenty,
Speaker 1: and of course Indiana matriculated down the field, got the
Speaker 1: two point conversion, forced overtime, and wanted on a ridiculously
Speaker 1: short two point conversion. Uh. The next day Todd Gurley
Speaker 1: does the same thing in Detroit, goes right downfield, Matt
Speaker 1: Stafford hits t. J. Hockenson at the buzzer, if you will,
Speaker 1: and then they then they convert a forty eight yard
Speaker 1: extra point after a penalty to beat the Falcons. But
Speaker 1: what I was getting at there was the biggest single
Speaker 1: thing I think you can talk about with NFL betting
Speaker 1: is and I use the word plinko again, attribute to
Speaker 1: the old prices right game to define a percentage of
Speaker 1: these NFL games, and Todd you are very good at
Speaker 1: pointing out it is a percentage. There is a percentage
Speaker 1: of games that you're not right. If you win, you're
Speaker 1: not wrong if you lose. And last week alone it
Speaker 1: was what Cleveland, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Detroit, What am I forgetting? Uh? Seattle?
Speaker 1: Who did Seattle play again? Seattle? And the areas, And
Speaker 1: there was a fourth game to which I'm which I'm losing.
Speaker 1: Off the top of my head, I'll check it right now.
Speaker 1: But those games were complete plinko. You were not right.
Speaker 1: If you wanted, you were not wrong if you didn't.
Speaker 1: I had it, and I had a few of those games. Um,
Speaker 1: I would even consider oh, New Orleans, Carolina being the
Speaker 1: fourth of those right. But then there is inevitably a
Speaker 1: percentage of games where it is not plinko right. If
Speaker 1: you had Washington last week, if you had San Francisco
Speaker 1: last week, those were clearly not that. So the extent
Speaker 1: to which, yeah, the extent to which we can figure
Speaker 1: out what those games are the better we will be
Speaker 1: as football betters. Now, of course that's easier said than done, right,
Speaker 1: but that's why. So that's why this is such a
Speaker 1: hard sport, because there is inevitably a huge percentage of
Speaker 1: games where it's just dude. You know people in contests
Speaker 1: who like go on these runs of like twenty three
Speaker 1: and two, they're getting the best to all of those.
Speaker 1: They're not avoiding all the plinko games, but they're getting
Speaker 1: them all to break their way. So index, you've got
Speaker 1: a very high PA. That's exactly what I felt. In
Speaker 1: college football, you have a lower plank Oization index. Therefore
Speaker 1: there's going to be more right sides in the NFL
Speaker 1: because everything is so tight. You've got a very low
Speaker 1: plank Oization index. You've got to be very careful. But
Speaker 1: um I I just want to know if you guys.
Speaker 1: I saw the replay of that where they had the
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan telling him to go down, and then they
Speaker 1: showed the play again and I noticed one of the
Speaker 1: guys knew not to tackle him. The other guy it
Speaker 1: looks like he he like really did sort of try
Speaker 1: to tackle him, and then and then Girlie like sluffed
Speaker 1: him off. And then you know, did the brain fart?
Speaker 1: But what was that Lions guy doing trying to tackle him?
Speaker 1: Or maybe Todd he was trying to pay him in
Speaker 1: the think he was tackling. You mean it was pure genius, Todd,
Speaker 1: go GALLAXI oka weak galaxy brain there, Todd Plaza index
Speaker 1: the pc I if drink, if you give me the drink,
Speaker 1: then it must be your drink in front of you
Speaker 1: is the one that I drink. But if you put
Speaker 1: the drink the other thing. But really, maybe you thought
Speaker 1: I thought that that's why you put the drink in
Speaker 1: the other drink. That is an excellent That is an
Speaker 1: excellent portrayal of the great scene from The Princess Bride.
Speaker 1: And then he croaks, Yeah, I didn't do it well
Speaker 1: at all. It's there. Oh, it's the greatest incompatable. I
Speaker 1: do not think you're using that word correctly. Uh. My
Speaker 1: last one is again it's another stinker. It's a third dog.
Speaker 1: I am taking the Denver broncos it's really uh, it's
Speaker 1: really just to play against the Chargers. Being a three
Speaker 1: point favorite here. Um Denver was terrible against the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: As we pointed out, Chiefs didn't even have to really
Speaker 1: exert themselves at all. They had a kickoff return excuse
Speaker 1: me that to pick six, they had a kickoff return
Speaker 1: for a touchdown. Yeah, two Denver turnovers led directly to scores,
Speaker 1: so they didn't have to break a sweat and beat
Speaker 1: in Denver. And by the way, I've said this before,
Speaker 1: no one loves Drew Lock more than Drew Lock. And
Speaker 1: when you know, when when Kansas City is up seven
Speaker 1: and nothing and they turned the ball over deep in
Speaker 1: their own territory and you're able to run in from
Speaker 1: a few yards out and make the score or seven
Speaker 1: to six before you miss an extra point, probably stop
Speaker 1: with the dancing right like, probably not the best move
Speaker 1: Drew Luck. All that said, he has a lock to
Speaker 1: be in it is. All that said. I'll take Denver
Speaker 1: plus three because I just don't trust the Chargers in
Speaker 1: any way, and I think they will Anthony Lynn their
Speaker 1: way to defeat in this game. In a week of
Speaker 1: the NFL, I mean, the biggest theme in in week
Speaker 1: we probably buried the headline. There's gonna be a lot
Speaker 1: of weather around the country, a lot of inclement weather.
Speaker 1: You've got to make sure that it's wind though. You
Speaker 1: gotta make sure it's the type of of inclement weather
Speaker 1: that matters. So you see a lot of these totals
Speaker 1: crashing and multiple games this week, and be aware of
Speaker 1: the fact that with them going down, they might just
Speaker 1: be precursors to the same better as taking the over
Speaker 1: later in the week when the rest of the public
Speaker 1: catches on. So don't don't necessarily think that it's a
Speaker 1: but one move and done kind of thing. But I'll
Speaker 1: take the Broncos here for no other reason than I
Speaker 1: don't trust the Chargers on the road in Denver in
Speaker 1: late October, and I don't think the Broncos should be
Speaker 1: a three point dog at home. And I know home
Speaker 1: is in quotes this year against the Charges, I can't
Speaker 1: be more impressed with Justin Herbert. But the Chargers managed
Speaker 1: to lose games like this. And you know, speaking of
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers, Todd, that was the famous game, Jeff, I
Speaker 1: can think you were with us for this one too,
Speaker 1: that game against Denver at Denver with Philip Rivers where
Speaker 1: he just threw the ball into the dirt on third
Speaker 1: down and Chargers manager, Yeah, figured out a way to
Speaker 1: lose that game. Denver plus three for me my third
Speaker 1: pick by the way, it should have never even gotten
Speaker 1: to that. If you remember that game, it was twenty
Speaker 1: six and the third quarter in Philip rivers through an
Speaker 1: interception to I, he makes me so angry. And and
Speaker 1: and last week the Chargers come from ahead, come from
Speaker 1: behind win against the Jaguars, who are terrible by Gardner Minshew.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw this news. Gardner Minshew
Speaker 1: admitted just today, I believe it's just today this morning,
Speaker 1: that he has multiple fractures in his throwing hand. The
Speaker 1: Jaguars had no idea about this and his status for
Speaker 1: next week. Because the Jaguars don't play this week, his
Speaker 1: status for next week is very much in doubt. So
Speaker 1: they did that. The Chargers did against a Gardner Minshew
Speaker 1: impaired Jaguars team almost lost big turnover for the Jaguars
Speaker 1: late in the third quarter that turned that game and
Speaker 1: made it a non sweat in the end for Chargers
Speaker 1: survivor pickers. Anyway, All right, uh so we are at
Speaker 1: the Todd Did you have anything on Thursday night tonight
Speaker 1: or no? I mean, Eileen heavily to Carolina. I agree
Speaker 1: with Jeffrey. First of all, Carolina beat the pants out
Speaker 1: of it Land in the last game. I had the
Speaker 1: over in that game and lost because Carolina's defense really
Speaker 1: stifled Atlanta. I don't think Julio Jones played in that game.
Speaker 1: I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure he did
Speaker 1: not play in that game, so that that is a difference.
Speaker 1: The thing is, the Falcons are also a little bit
Speaker 1: like the the Saints. I don't know if you guys
Speaker 1: I mean noticed this, but they don't seem to play
Speaker 1: as fast and as well on the on grass. I
Speaker 1: don't I don't know if the numbers would bear that out,
Speaker 1: but it just seems to me that that whenever they
Speaker 1: get on grass, they're just not the same offensive firepower.
Speaker 1: So I kind of like Carolina with Jeff as a
Speaker 1: bonus pick. Okay uh And then comes to our teaser
Speaker 1: of the week again, as Todd said, we're all six
Speaker 1: and one, me and Mikey. What was Mikey's teaser. Mikey's
Speaker 1: teaser last week was Detroit Lions. This week? Oh this week? Yeah,
Speaker 1: this week, Mikey's teaser was the Green Bay Packers minus
Speaker 1: one with the Miami Dolphins plus nine and a half
Speaker 1: and to a interesting interesting All right, Jeff, we have
Speaker 1: done very well on these this year, what is your
Speaker 1: two leg at six point teaser of the week. So
Speaker 1: I'm with Mike on his first leg. I don't see
Speaker 1: a universe where green Bay doesen't doesn't beat Minnesota by
Speaker 1: more than a field goal. I mean, they're gonna beat
Speaker 1: him by at least the field goals. So I'll go
Speaker 1: green Bay. I guess we're going with minus one on that, guys,
Speaker 1: I guess, uh down from seven, uh, even though there's
Speaker 1: a good good amount of six and a half out there.
Speaker 1: So if you can get that, obviously get it down
Speaker 1: today half um, and then I'm I'm I'm thinking the
Speaker 1: same way gill is on Denver and the Chargers. I'll
Speaker 1: push Denver up through the six and the seven and
Speaker 1: the three up the nine very happily that that is
Speaker 1: one score game written all over it. So I'll go
Speaker 1: green Bay minus one. Denver plus nine will be my teaser. Yeah.
Speaker 1: The only pure Stanford loong teaser legs this week are Atlanta,
Speaker 1: which I get on playing the Atlanta Falcons and the
Speaker 1: over Intact in tonight's game, But that's not my teaser
Speaker 1: of the week. Uh. And then the only other one
Speaker 1: I guess is the Raiders. Am I missing anything? Guys?
Speaker 1: That sounds correct, Todd, What do you like? I like
Speaker 1: the um I like the Denver Broncos for similar reasons
Speaker 1: that you said. I just don't see the Chargers, even
Speaker 1: if they can beat the Broncos. I don't see them
Speaker 1: blowing out the Broncos, especially after the Broncos had such
Speaker 1: a poor week last week against Kansas City. They're gonna
Speaker 1: be loaded up for air this week against the team. Look,
Speaker 1: let's be honest. The Chargers are just an average, mediocre
Speaker 1: football team. Sometimes they're gonna look good, sometimes they're gonna
Speaker 1: look bad. I don't think they can beat the Broncos
Speaker 1: by more than nine. So give me the Broncos plus
Speaker 1: the nine. And then also give me another team plus
Speaker 1: the nine, and that is the uh what was the
Speaker 1: other one? Oh, San Francisco forty Niners. Give me the
Speaker 1: San Francisco forty Niners plus the nine. Look, Seattle is good,
Speaker 1: but they don't have any defense, so it's very hard
Speaker 1: to win by margin if you don't have any defense.
Speaker 1: I don't see San Francisco getting spanked in this game.
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be a tight game. Give me
Speaker 1: the Niners plus the nine and Denver plus the nine.
Speaker 1: I kind of like that San Francisco Lake Um, by
Speaker 1: the way, says you bring bring up the Chargers Broncos
Speaker 1: again with the other prop that we looked at this morning.
Speaker 1: And I'll usually do props on my show because I
Speaker 1: think it's kind of it's kind of nonsense radio because
Speaker 1: most people don't bet them. But these are all kind
Speaker 1: of cool. This year in the NFL, these season long
Speaker 1: ones with the Jets and the NFC East total, there
Speaker 1: was another one that was, uh, well, all four teams
Speaker 1: from you know, make it from a division into the playoffs.
Speaker 1: And they're clearly talking about the NFC West, which has
Speaker 1: the Niners at four and three in last place, and
Speaker 1: just like we were talking about with the NFC East,
Speaker 1: where there's built in wins against each other, in the
Speaker 1: NFC West there's built in losses because they play each other.
Speaker 1: But really, if you look at the NFC, what are
Speaker 1: the only two like, what are the teams that could
Speaker 1: torpedo that from happening? Because it seems unlikely, but then
Speaker 1: you think, well who could who could ruin this? I
Speaker 1: guess New Orleans would be the number one candidate because
Speaker 1: New Orleans and Tampa whoever wins that division where it
Speaker 1: doesn't win that division, could could mess that up. Chicago
Speaker 1: is the only other one. I don't believe in Chicago,
Speaker 1: you know. So it's interesting. It was plus three fifty,
Speaker 1: by the way, which wasn't nearly enough bang for your
Speaker 1: buck to get all four of those teams. But the
Speaker 1: other one basically betting Arizona versus Chicago versus New Orleans. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Oro or San Francisco. I think San Francisco is going
Speaker 1: to be better than gil Gil. One thing actually that
Speaker 1: up there, San Francisco goes to New Orleans later this year.
Speaker 1: That could go a long way towards deciding that prop that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and New Orleans plays Chicago this week, right, so there's
Speaker 1: one more loss for one of those teams. What what
Speaker 1: I was really getting at, though, was one that I
Speaker 1: couldn't decide on a bet, which was the next coach
Speaker 1: to be fired. So we've already had Bill O'Brien fired
Speaker 1: as both the coach and the GM of the Houston Texans,
Speaker 1: and then Dan Quinn got fired from Atlanta. You could
Speaker 1: argue that both of those guys should have been fired
Speaker 1: a long time ago. But then so the new one
Speaker 1: is Adam Gaze is the short shot at plus one hundred,
Speaker 1: and my opinion was, well, they would have fired him already.
Speaker 1: They're not gonna fire him. Uh. And then there was
Speaker 1: all kinds of other people on that list. Mike McCarthy
Speaker 1: was sixteen and one, but I'm but over twenty one.
Speaker 1: I was like, well, yeah, but Dad got hurt, so
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if Jerry would do that to him.
Speaker 1: Anthony Lynn is sixteen to one. From a football perspective,
Speaker 1: you would think Anthony Lynn would be the choice, but
Speaker 1: he's teflon, like, they just don't fire him. He's too
Speaker 1: nice of a guy, apparently, So I didn't really know.
Speaker 1: Was it Doug Morone and Jack Xonville? Was it someone
Speaker 1: like Zimmer in Minnesota who were not thinking about But
Speaker 1: I didn't like any of them. I was like, I
Speaker 1: wouldn't bet this at all. I'm not sure if you
Speaker 1: got someone. Maron's the only name that would make sense.
Speaker 1: But they're on the by this week, and they probably
Speaker 1: would have already done it, and they're in a scenario too,
Speaker 1: and look they lose out. They have a real shot
Speaker 1: at the number one pick if the Jets win a game,
Speaker 1: Jacksonville loses out. Jacksonville is getting the first pick because
Speaker 1: their schedule will have been easier than the jet schedule,
Speaker 1: So uh, Maron would be the only guy I'd look at.
Speaker 1: I have a hard time seeing Minnesota fire firing Zimmer
Speaker 1: in the middle of the season. Gil. I just I
Speaker 1: just have a hard time seeing that, even though that,
Speaker 1: to me is a logical pick. Without that, seasons just
Speaker 1: completely fallen. Apart for that, I have a hard time
Speaker 1: seeing anybody fire anyone at this point, for it doesn't
Speaker 1: make any sense does. By the way, Bill Belichick was
Speaker 1: included at five one, I was like, that's I don't know,
Speaker 1: that's not enough. It would need to be five jillions,
Speaker 1: five five trillion at least taught any any choice. There
Speaker 1: By the way, Zach Tylor was not on that list
Speaker 1: at all. He wasn't even listed. Um, I can't really
Speaker 1: think of anybody that you know, I don't know. I
Speaker 1: just anyway, here's my two team six point teaser. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna take the Pittsburgh Steelers, which is consistent with my
Speaker 1: first best bet, taking Pittsburgh on the against spread at
Speaker 1: three and a half plus three and a half. I'm
Speaker 1: also gonna take yeah, I'm also gonna take Pittsburgh in
Speaker 1: addition to the plus three and a half is one
Speaker 1: of my best bets, plus nine and a half on
Speaker 1: a teaser. Again, I am concerned about the fact that
Speaker 1: the game script of this is going to be very
Speaker 1: very uh sort of a portent of things to come.
Speaker 1: If Baltimore goes out early, this could go bad. But
Speaker 1: if Pittsburgh goes out early, I'm gonna be very comfortable
Speaker 1: with both of these. So Pittsburgh plus nine and a
Speaker 1: half and I'm gonna tease Tennessee down to basically just
Speaker 1: having to win again with with very few Stanford Wong
Speaker 1: pure teaser legs available, I'll take Tennessee down. It's five
Speaker 1: and a half now, so I'm actually taking it, you know,
Speaker 1: two plus a half. I get it. I know you're
Speaker 1: not supposed to do that, but basically, I'm just having
Speaker 1: Tennessee win that football game against Cincinnati. And I'm I'm
Speaker 1: all about Joe Burrow and I'm all about the back
Speaker 1: door covers of the Cincinnati Bengals. And what's the stat
Speaker 1: Four of their five losses have been by five points
Speaker 1: or fewer. Yes, four of their five losses by five
Speaker 1: points or fewer, but Cincinnati's three nineteen and one under
Speaker 1: Zach Taylor. I think it's three twenty in one. So
Speaker 1: for me, it's Pittsburgh and Tennessee as my two leg
Speaker 1: six point teaser, all right, So that for the survivors, Gil,
Speaker 1: you still have your second entry going. You want me
Speaker 1: to tell you who you've taken so far? Please tell
Speaker 1: the world who I've taken so far? Okay, so far
Speaker 1: used the Tennessee Titans, the Cleveland Brianies, the New England Patriots,
Speaker 1: the Tampa Baby Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, and the Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 1: And last week you use Buffalo. So who's it going
Speaker 1: to be? Now? Well, comes down to for me, Uh,
Speaker 1: do I use the Kansas City Chiefs in what amounts
Speaker 1: to a Bingoes free Bingo square against the New York Jets?
Speaker 1: Or am I strategizing and keeping Kansas City for later
Speaker 1: and I gotta keep them later? Now? The answer for
Speaker 1: me is the former. I'm playing the Chiefs. I'm using
Speaker 1: the Chiefs in week number eight. Um, I did not
Speaker 1: script out Survivor in the year of COVID. I think
Speaker 1: it's kind of a fool's errand to do that. This
Speaker 1: year because you just you worry about postponed games and
Speaker 1: that kind of thing. And again, if the game is
Speaker 1: postponed beyond Tuesday at midnight, your scrid in Survivor. But
Speaker 1: I am not. But but I did. Finally, after week six,
Speaker 1: I finally said, all right, let me see we map
Speaker 1: this out. And so I am going to take as
Speaker 1: accordingly according to that grid that I've made, that map
Speaker 1: that I've made for myself. I'm gonna take Kansas City
Speaker 1: here against the Jets, the the fade, the Jets strategy.
Speaker 1: As I've said, there are many worst strategies and Survivor
Speaker 1: than that. It's Kansas City at home against the Jets,
Speaker 1: the nineteen and a half point favorites. I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: think of out of this week Chiefs because I don't.
Speaker 1: By the way, that was really interesting what you said
Speaker 1: about the Thanksgiving there's only six teams. There's gonna be
Speaker 1: people that have already used up all six of those teams. Well,
Speaker 1: that's part of circus thing. By the way, if you
Speaker 1: look at the Chiefs, just finishing the thought, if you
Speaker 1: look at the Chiefs schedule, there isn't really a completely
Speaker 1: obvious spot to play them again. Some might argue with that,
Speaker 1: and do you really think they're gonna go fifteen and one.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're gonna lose at some other point. So
Speaker 1: I'll take the Chiefs here. That, yeah, the Thanksgiving thing
Speaker 1: because of the presence of a team like the Jets,
Speaker 1: because Circa couldn't have anticipated to teams so epically bad
Speaker 1: sorry Jeff, so bad that people would still be around
Speaker 1: right now. And it's really not eroding quickly at all.
Speaker 1: So they've got to be thrilled that they have that
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving rule, which is instead of a seventeen week survivor,
Speaker 1: it essentially becomes an eighteen week with this mini week
Speaker 1: of Thanksgiving, and the three games are really difficult unless
Speaker 1: there's a major injury to someone very important in one
Speaker 1: of these three games. There is no obvious choice. It's
Speaker 1: Baltimore Pittsburgh the rematch, It's Dallas Washington the rematch, and
Speaker 1: it's get ready for this the first game that day,
Speaker 1: Houston Detroit. So it's so thanks as you can plan
Speaker 1: everything to get to Thanksgiving, and you can sort of
Speaker 1: plan everything until the last week. Week seventeen is always scorely,
Speaker 1: but like Thanksgiving is just a prayer and you have well,
Speaker 1: will you would you? Absolutely? I think they stink. I
Speaker 1: mean I wouldn't say it that quickly, Gail. If we
Speaker 1: were picking that today, if you made me take the
Speaker 1: pick today, I would take Detroit. I would not be
Speaker 1: watching that game to basically that that that's what I
Speaker 1: would do, just because. And this was when remember when
Speaker 1: when the when the schedule was released, we all looked
Speaker 1: at this for this reason, with the with the survivor
Speaker 1: pool a circuit usually Thanksgiving, Gil and we all said,
Speaker 1: all right, we're gonna save the Dallas Cowboys for Thanksgiving
Speaker 1: as Washington football team. And now the Cowboys are one
Speaker 1: of the five worst teams in football, so it completely
Speaker 1: again that that day is gonna be h It's gonna
Speaker 1: be a bloody Thanksgiving for folks that are left in
Speaker 1: the pool. But but we you know, that's the thing,
Speaker 1: for all these survivor players, including myself, who are still alive,
Speaker 1: you almost have to be okay with losing then, right
Speaker 1: like it's like, well, we knew this was coming. This
Speaker 1: was the day where it's sort of just coin flippy.
Speaker 1: But I think you're right now as we stand, Jeff,
Speaker 1: that's kind of what I'm thinking about too, it's like
Speaker 1: Detroit at home short week. Maybe that's the way to
Speaker 1: play it, but that could change, right if uh, you know,
Speaker 1: God gets hurt, Lamar Jackson, Lamar Jackson gets hurt or
Speaker 1: Big Ben gets hurt. I mean, there's so many things
Speaker 1: that can happen between now and then. But imagine if
Speaker 1: Circuit didn't have the Thanksgiving rule. There would be like
Speaker 1: a hundred people get to the finish line I think
Speaker 1: in this season and they never know if another big
Speaker 1: upset is coming that could wipe out Jets would one
Speaker 1: game and half absolutely, But that's the thing. It's like
Speaker 1: there's no sure things, so fading the Jets look at
Speaker 1: some point they might win. Maybe backing the Chiefs like
Speaker 1: saving the Chiefs for another time. I don't know. I
Speaker 1: don't know, Like they've lost already, right, So as if
Speaker 1: you have a free Bingo square, at least for me,
Speaker 1: I'm using the Chiefs this week. I have them. I'm
Speaker 1: using them, um. But obviously there's other choices. If you
Speaker 1: have Tampa Bay, a lot of people are gonna pick
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. But with the Giants outbreak, now will they
Speaker 1: really pick Tampa Bay because you might lose all together?
Speaker 1: Right if the game gets postponed because of the COVID
Speaker 1: outbreak on the Giants, so Tampa Bay looked pretty obvious.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure you can play that anymore. Will you
Speaker 1: take Philly against Dallas? Philly was another consideration you would, Todd.
Speaker 1: I'm not so sure I would. I don't trust. I
Speaker 1: can't stand Dallas. I think they're horrendous and now they're
Speaker 1: going to be even worse. But I don't Philadelphia apparently
Speaker 1: beat the Giants shouldn't have beaten the Giants. This is why, well,
Speaker 1: actually we'll get to it in old bit on on
Speaker 1: one of your last questions, Gil, but Philadelphia should not
Speaker 1: be almost a ten point favorite against anyone at this
Speaker 1: point and they and they proved that on Thursday night,
Speaker 1: where they needed a lot of luck to be the
Speaker 1: Giant team that I mean, the Giants think there if
Speaker 1: it wasn't for the Jets, the Giants who probably be
Speaker 1: the worst team in the NFL. Right, that's right, with
Speaker 1: apologies to the Cowboys, that's right. And if they were
Speaker 1: playing an NFL team, I would agree. Unfortunately, they're playing
Speaker 1: Austin this week with quarterback Ben d Nucci. All I'm
Speaker 1: just saying is all I'm saying is Philadelphia. I don't
Speaker 1: really trust them against Dallas quite frankly. And you know
Speaker 1: what else, I don't trust green Bay hosting Minnesota. It
Speaker 1: would not shock me if Minnesota just has this random
Speaker 1: game where they beat the you know where they beat
Speaker 1: the pants off the green Bay defense and score a
Speaker 1: lot of points. I don't know. Those are division games
Speaker 1: that scare me. They might all listen. I say this
Speaker 1: every week. These games scare me. But like every one
Speaker 1: of these seems to come home like there are no
Speaker 1: massive upsets. And so Survivor has three hundred fifty people
Speaker 1: left with with eleven weeks of circle left through seven,
Speaker 1: and that's special Thanksgiving quirk. Yes, sir, you know one
Speaker 1: other good one that I think And I'm not a
Speaker 1: huge fan of picking road teams in the Survivor pool,
Speaker 1: but Tennessee against Cincinnati feels pretty good and pretty safe. Also,
Speaker 1: just because Cincinnati's defense is horrible and that run defense
Speaker 1: is especially horrible. That could be a day where Derrick
Speaker 1: Henry just goes absolutely nuclear 'ar in Tennessee wins a
Speaker 1: game and you're not sweating too much. Well, so this
Speaker 1: segway is perfectly that we're kind of already answering this
Speaker 1: the big favorite most likely to lose out right one
Speaker 1: of our final two questions, because it really does just
Speaker 1: come down to the Chiefs nineteen and a half point
Speaker 1: favorites against the Jets. We already mentioned the Eagles nine
Speaker 1: or eight and a half point favorites against Dallas, Green
Speaker 1: Bay seven point favorites against Minnesota, and Tampa Bay twelve
Speaker 1: point favorites at the Giants, and it's like, who of
Speaker 1: those is the most likely to lose out right? Jeff,
Speaker 1: your thought again would be who I by default, I
Speaker 1: have to take Philadelphia, even though I don't think they're
Speaker 1: gonna lose. It. Just just a bed again. The Cowboys
Speaker 1: are all world bad right now. Benda Nucci is a
Speaker 1: fit string NFL quarterback on on normal on a regular
Speaker 1: team that is in the Jets of the Cowboys at
Speaker 1: this point. But the Eagles are bad. The Eagles are
Speaker 1: legitimately bad, and they still might win the NFC East anyway,
Speaker 1: but uh, it's well in the realm of possibility that
Speaker 1: wins gets the interception bug and all of a sudden
Speaker 1: you've got a problem there. So that's the only reason
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna lose. I think Philly is
Speaker 1: more likely to cover than lose. But of all those
Speaker 1: other teams, no one else is gonna come close to losing.
Speaker 1: I mean, Tampa is going to destroy the Giants. I
Speaker 1: took Kansas City as one of the picks, and I
Speaker 1: love Tennessee this week too. So by the fault, that's Philip,
Speaker 1: and Tennessee is not even part of this because it
Speaker 1: fell to five and a half. So five and a half, yeah,
Speaker 1: and I like green Bay to gil I don't. I
Speaker 1: don't agree with you on that. I think I think
Speaker 1: Minnesota can't give up mode. Well, so Tampa Bay in
Speaker 1: Kansas City are not losing. So it really is a
Speaker 1: binary choice, right, it's a choice between It's a choice
Speaker 1: between Green Bay and UM and of course Phildelphia. I
Speaker 1: mean that it really is, Todd. You're gonna say, then
Speaker 1: it's green Bay, right, Yeah, I could totally see. Look,
Speaker 1: I mean, Minnesota played good against Seattle. They're not that
Speaker 1: bad a team. They could have a great game. Hearon Rodgers,
Speaker 1: you know, has a screw up game, and you know
Speaker 1: it could happen, all right, I would say green Bay,
Speaker 1: just I don't know if I would say green Bay.
Speaker 1: When I say Green Bay or Philly, you know what
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say, Philly. Philly by default don't see it happening,
Speaker 1: but they would be my choice. And then the final
Speaker 1: question if we live in a bizarro world and right
Speaker 1: now we don't have any postponements right now, but again,
Speaker 1: Giants with a little bit of a breakout. But we
Speaker 1: have fourteen games in the NFL, four teams on by
Speaker 1: UH and those four teams on by are Jacksonville, Arizona, Houston,
Speaker 1: and Washington. But of the remaining games, fourteen of them
Speaker 1: we get to is that we have to choose a
Speaker 1: side and every single one of them except one. It's
Speaker 1: a bizarro world where you're forced to make bets one
Speaker 1: game where you get a free pass. Jeffrey, what is
Speaker 1: the game on the side you want no part of? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I want nothing to do in Las Vegas and Cleveland, no,
Speaker 1: thank you. I have no feel for what Cleveland is
Speaker 1: now going to be. With Odell Beckham out, this Baker
Speaker 1: Mayfield actually get better or does that offense regress like
Speaker 1: it would normally would with an elite talent being out
Speaker 1: and the Raiders going to the Eastern time zone and
Speaker 1: a local one o'clock game ten am for the body clocks,
Speaker 1: even though it's a little different this week because of
Speaker 1: daylight savings, so really be eleven am for their body clocks.
Speaker 1: I still don't have a feel at all for these
Speaker 1: teams anyway, with all those factors put in. So no,
Speaker 1: thank you for Las Vegas and Cleveland. That's as good
Speaker 1: a choice as any man. Todd, what was Mike's again,
Speaker 1: Indianapolis Detroit. I believe it was. Yeah, that's what he Yeah,
Speaker 1: he wanted no part of Indianapolis Detroit, Todd, what's yours?
Speaker 1: I want to know part of the Rams Miami because
Speaker 1: I just don't know what to a Tagavalo is yet.
Speaker 1: So I just don't understand that team right now. You know,
Speaker 1: with Fitzy, I know exactly what I'm getting. I'm either
Speaker 1: getting some compident quarterback or a blow up for interception performance.
Speaker 1: I don't know what I'm getting with two. I think
Speaker 1: it's Indianapolis Detroit for me. I think I agree with
Speaker 1: Mikey and and all these are good choices. You could
Speaker 1: pick a lot of these games, but Indianapolis Detroit. I
Speaker 1: don't know if I really understand either of these teams. Like,
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's like people were all over
Speaker 1: they were sweating Indiana's defense. Indianapolis defense was the greatest
Speaker 1: thing in the world. They're not that great. And then
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers can't trust him. And there's Detroit three and three, right,
Speaker 1: but like we kill Matt Patricia because he's terrible in
Speaker 1: game coach, and then what I'm supposed to know what
Speaker 1: we're getting with them? Detroit takes a lot of leads
Speaker 1: and a squandered a lot of leads. I get it.
Speaker 1: They came back against the Falcons. Something finally worked out
Speaker 1: for them perfectly. But I don't trust them. So I mean,
Speaker 1: for me, that game is I could see any outcome,
Speaker 1: Like if you told me now Indianapolis won by double digits,
Speaker 1: if you told me Detroit won by double digits, I
Speaker 1: might be surprised by Detroit winning by double digits, but
Speaker 1: either way, I could see it happening. Um So, that's
Speaker 1: the deal. Excellently done, gentlemen. Thank you to Mike Palm
Speaker 1: who had to break out of here because he's a
Speaker 1: busy man these days. With the Circle opening, maybe next
Speaker 1: week we will be at Circa. That will be the hope.
Speaker 1: Um So, for Mike Palm and Todd, wishing of thank you, gentlemen,
Speaker 1: Thank you Todd from your mother's attic, your mother's cork
Speaker 1: addict there in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. It's cork, right, Yeah, it's cork.
Speaker 1: That's what I thought. It's it's a ginger bread. Uh.
Speaker 1: And Jeff Parls, who, by the way, I finally said
Speaker 1: his name correctly, so because his parents will be upset
Speaker 1: with me, I think if I didn't say it. Jeff Pearls,
Speaker 1: who affectionately known as Parlay. The Parlay podcasts available. We're
Speaker 1: all podcasts are distributed, right, Jeff. Of course, of course
Speaker 1: I'm gonna as soon as we're done here, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: be riding right into right into one of those as well. So.
Speaker 1: But Gil, it's Gil, It's it's it's awesome. Awesome to
Speaker 1: see is always awesome to hear you, awesome to uh,
Speaker 1: awesome to see how everyone is doing well through these
Speaker 1: crazy times. And also to UH again wishing the best
Speaker 1: for Chris Andrews. Hope he can get on the men
Speaker 1: sooner rather than later, of course, Uh and UH, and
Speaker 1: congratulations again to Mike and Derek and the entire team
Speaker 1: over at Circa. I can't wait to see that place
Speaker 1: in person. It looks absolutely incredible. It's insane, it's absolutely insane.
Speaker 1: The sports Book inside and outside, absolutely insane and uh yes,
Speaker 1: very kind of you. Also well wishes from all of
Speaker 1: us to Chris Andrews to close the show, who we
Speaker 1: hope to have for guessing lines on Monday right here
Speaker 1: on the Beating the Book Podcast. Thank you all for listening.
Speaker 1: Good luck with all your bets week eate in the NFL. Yeah,
Speaker 1: thank you boys. The Battle Battle b