WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 8 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:14.160 Check it down Man Now Down Man Thursday Morning Eating 0:00:14.200 --> 0:00:18.959 the Book podcast, Megapod Live once a game from the D. 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:20.919 We're at the day to day. We're supposed to be 0:00:20.920 --> 0:00:24.120 a circuit. We're at the D because well I don't 0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:26.160 know the Working as King still a circuit or more 0:00:26.280 --> 0:00:29.880 more specifically, Mikey is on a schedule today. He's got 0:00:29.880 --> 0:00:32.440 a meeting upstairs to the Deal on the twelfth floor. 0:00:32.600 --> 0:00:35.440 So we decided, why I push it, Let's just go 0:00:35.479 --> 0:00:37.600 to the D. But you have to you have to 0:00:37.640 --> 0:00:40.080 go to this meeting here pretty soon. So we're going 0:00:40.120 --> 0:00:41.760 to get all of mike stuff out of the way. 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:44.040 We're gonna break forbad a little today, uh, and then 0:00:44.080 --> 0:00:46.760 we'll do a round table with me, Todd Wishnev and 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:49.120 our rotating guest today. You may know him as producing 0:00:49.200 --> 0:00:51.360 number five from a numbers game and he hosts his 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:54.280 own podcast called The Parlay Podcast. Where'd he get that 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:58.560 name from? Jeff Parlay? How you doing, Jeff Gil, It's great, 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:02.000 great to see everybody, Uh, and now actually knowing Todd, 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:05.759 what what Todd's came and his mother's attic looks like 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:08.640 I now actually have a better feel for the podcast today. 0:01:08.640 --> 0:01:11.720 I now actually familiar with all the surroundings that were, 0:01:12.000 --> 0:01:14.520 that that are that are in this podcast today. Jeff, 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:16.880 please use the word cork when referring to the attic 0:01:17.040 --> 0:01:21.440 in which he does. Please. All right, mikey, uh. First 0:01:21.440 --> 0:01:23.440 of all, we have a we have a special This 0:01:23.520 --> 0:01:26.400 is lady gentleman, Mike Palm. Now thirty six hours since 0:01:26.440 --> 0:01:31.240 the Grand Circle opening. Mike, here is your introduction from 0:01:31.280 --> 0:01:37.440 the other night. He's a genius of all things. He 0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:41.000 knows which one is hall and which one's hopes. He 0:01:41.120 --> 0:01:44.679 knows what they call the coo cools and not just cool. 0:01:45.400 --> 0:01:48.680 He knows who started the fire, because we didn't start 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:51.480 the fire. And if we didn't start the fire, who did? 0:01:51.800 --> 0:01:55.880 Was it lightening? He knows, ladies and gentleman the poll 0:01:56.160 --> 0:02:03.520 reader vice president out of a cloud of smoke, arms 0:02:03.640 --> 0:02:09.120 raised Mike Palm, everybody. He knows which one is hall 0:02:09.200 --> 0:02:11.800 and which one is oats. Introduced by the Great George 0:02:11.800 --> 0:02:15.640 Shay from the Hot Dog Eating Concepts. They're on Coney Island. 0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:18.120 How you know what, mikey wonderful, busy, busy. There's not 0:02:18.240 --> 0:02:20.760 enough hours in the day. Gil, I'm sorry, wasn't everything 0:02:20.800 --> 0:02:23.520 you imagine it to be yes and more and you 0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:25.560 still you still look like you're a little tired from it. 0:02:25.560 --> 0:02:28.200 I'm exhausted, exhaust I mean there's you wake up, you 0:02:28.240 --> 0:02:30.560 get two hours sleep, and there's thirty seven emails and 0:02:30.600 --> 0:02:33.960 eighteen texts and likes, and then you gotta slum with 0:02:34.040 --> 0:02:36.280 us and do this little picture megapod. Oh, it's nice. 0:02:36.320 --> 0:02:38.639 It's nice to see Jeff again. And you know, I 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:41.000 had I was out on the pool deck yesterday. It 0:02:41.080 --> 0:02:43.480 was really the first day of stadium swim and I 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:46.160 was sitting with a gentleman who was really enjoying the 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:49.560 soccer games and and the atmosphere, and the people kept 0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:52.520 coming up and we hear you on visa and we 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:54.720 listened to you on the megapod, and the number one 0:02:54.800 --> 0:03:00.560 question was, well, i'll phrase it, I can't your certain words. 0:03:00.600 --> 0:03:03.280 But the number one question was tell us about Todd? 0:03:03.960 --> 0:03:06.239 Is Todd really being Todd when he's on the air, 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:08.760 And I said, he really is. I mean, that's his 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:12.200 genuine self. There's no airs, there's no put on, you know. 0:03:12.280 --> 0:03:14.600 And there was a lot of positive comments about Todd, 0:03:14.639 --> 0:03:17.079 and and then there was something that weren't as as positive. 0:03:17.160 --> 0:03:20.120 But you know, I thought well, one guy said he's 0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:22.639 an exhausting listen. I said, well, you know, he's even 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:25.919 more exhausting is a friend. But but still he's there. 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:33.240 He's Mikeycorn for yourself. There is thank you, Todd. Than 0:03:33.760 --> 0:03:35.800 Chris Felika was on the Number Be the Big One, 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:39.760 the Big Popcorn Todd. Chris Fliga was on the Numbers 0:03:39.800 --> 0:03:41.880 game this morning, and then he got the long segment 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:43.200 on the Numbers Game. We hadn't had him on the 0:03:43.200 --> 0:03:45.920 long side of for a long time. The reserved for 0:03:45.960 --> 0:03:49.840 Paul Carr just because, so FeliCa said, I said, it 0:03:49.880 --> 0:03:51.000 was nice to talk to you on the long side, 0:03:51.040 --> 0:03:53.000 and he goes, yeah, thanks for you know, putting me 0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:55.680 ahead of prioritizing me, ahead of wishing it. Finally, so 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:58.119 he's he's He threw a shout out to Todd as well. 0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:02.880 Todd your thoughts, I have listened. When you have as 0:04:02.960 --> 0:04:05.560 much talent as I do, you're gonna have people sling 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:08.480 bows and arrows at you. It happens. You have to 0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:12.400 be okay with your talent and understand that other people 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:14.520 are gonna get jealous. It's the same thing as when 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:16.320 I was three hundred and thirty pounds and I would 0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:18.080 walk into a bar and there'll be a hot girl 0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:20.719 and her boyfriend standing there, and I would walk over 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:22.960 and we would joke around and laugh. Everybody loves me. 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:25.840 It's fantastic. Then I would get to be two hundred pounds, 0:04:25.839 --> 0:04:28.200 do the exact same thing, and all of a sudden, 0:04:28.240 --> 0:04:31.599 the dude gets very intimidated because there's a good looking 0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:35.680 guy standing near his girl. Same story with Mikey Palm. 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:38.719 He feels a little threatened by my talent. And it's okay. 0:04:38.920 --> 0:04:42.760 We just had tipped to him all good. Mike just noted. 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:46.080 He's like, yeah, okay, maybe very accurate, very accurate, very accurate. 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:49.520 It's like white women have so many gay friends. You know, 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:52.600 they're non threatening. It's non threatened. Todd at three thirty 0:04:52.720 --> 0:04:55.360 was non threatening. You know. People love to have him around. 0:04:55.560 --> 0:04:58.560 All right. So, uh, because Mike, he's on a schedule, 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:02.200 so we hold let's let's let's hold on for the hijinks. 0:05:02.320 --> 0:05:07.200 Um okay. Survivor from three fifty three to three fifty 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:13.480 I believe I think that at two of them were 0:05:13.480 --> 0:05:16.000 because they didn't put it in the entry. Again, again, 0:05:16.560 --> 0:05:18.640 how's this, How's it possible? It was almost like a 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:20.880 perfect week. But there was nobody, no big upsets that 0:05:20.920 --> 0:05:23.920 nobody agains one person. One person had the Patriots, that's it. 0:05:24.200 --> 0:05:27.520 Everybody else through. There's somebody I knew that's in the 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:29.880 circuit million two that didn't get their five picks in 0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:34.000 as well. Somebody that I know that was contending. Um, 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:37.480 he was contending for quarterly and the second quarter didn't 0:05:37.480 --> 0:05:38.800 get his five picks. I mean he was like a 0:05:38.839 --> 0:05:41.160 point and a half out in the second quarter. Brutal. 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:43.839 Is there any contest that have ever gone down to 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:47.120 the wire and survivor with like hundreds of people still alive? 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:51.400 Could happen this year? Could happen. But Thanksgiving, thanks you're 0:05:51.400 --> 0:05:53.800 saving grace. I never asked you directly, like do you 0:05:53.800 --> 0:05:55.880 guys look back at that and thank God we have 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:58.400 this sink Thanksgiving rule. Well, a lot of people are 0:05:58.640 --> 0:06:00.760 not do not like it. But I think made the contest. 0:06:00.960 --> 0:06:03.320 Made the contest because you can plan until then, you 0:06:03.320 --> 0:06:06.560 can plan after. But that's a prayer that day. Um, Okay, 0:06:06.600 --> 0:06:09.640 by the way, circa everything that it was supposed to be, 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:13.120 it was awesome. Everybody had a great time. I hope 0:06:13.120 --> 0:06:14.599 you didn't mind that a lot of us had, you know, 0:06:14.640 --> 0:06:17.719 regular ties on. It's not a little sore about it, 0:06:17.760 --> 0:06:20.440 aren't you. I'm upset I never got to see Debra. Yeah, 0:06:21.560 --> 0:06:23.920 I know. I was upset because I want I were 0:06:23.920 --> 0:06:27.279 there any pictures? Did you take any pictures? We took? No, 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:29.960 not there. We took a couple at home. Yeah. Yeah, 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:32.279 that's the only thing. No. Everybody looked nice. What a 0:06:32.279 --> 0:06:35.520 good call to go black tie because when you dress well, 0:06:36.000 --> 0:06:38.400 you feel well. I already got everyone in a good 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:41.160 mood being and in black tie and tuxedos and gowns 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:43.520 and dressed up, and the women had their hair done 0:06:43.520 --> 0:06:46.960 and their makeup and all that. So that's my motto, Mikey, 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:49.360 if I dress well, I feel well. That's definitely my motto. 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:53.680 How come you never dress well? Because I don't agree 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:57.919 with that statement. I'm not Martin Vance, Martin Vance Todd's 0:06:57.960 --> 0:07:02.840 personal Twitter fashion coach. Uh and Derek was great, great speech, 0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:06.320 He was all inclusive. Um, it was like a business plan. 0:07:06.440 --> 0:07:08.880 It was perfect. It was one recent host text to 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:10.960 me or it's long enough, can you tell Derek, let's 0:07:10.960 --> 0:07:13.640 get it. I said, very grateful, You're very grateful, welcome 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:16.760 for everything. You're welcome. You're welcome. You're welcome. Hi, Mikey, 0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:21.320 without further ado, your three best bets one, two, and three, 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:24.239 and a brief explanation as to why these are your bets. Okay, 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:26.320 I like, I'm gonna keep going with these overs. I 0:07:26.640 --> 0:07:29.600 think the over trends continue. Here's two teams that have 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:32.400 bad defenses, the Titans and Bengals. I know it's a 0:07:32.480 --> 0:07:35.480 high number, fifty three and a half, but I like 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:39.000 going over it again. I mean, I think you've seen 0:07:39.000 --> 0:07:41.720 how bad that Bengals defense is exposed the last couple 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:44.280 of weeks against the Browns and then against the Colts 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:47.160 when they couldn't hold a gift twenty one point lead. 0:07:47.560 --> 0:07:50.240 And I'm not I'm not convinced of this Tennessee Titans defense. 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:52.440 I think that that that you know, they've they've done 0:07:52.480 --> 0:07:54.560 well with Tannehill, they've got the most out of them, 0:07:54.600 --> 0:07:56.880 but they can't get stops either. So I'm gonna go 0:07:56.960 --> 0:07:59.680 over there my second play. As I'm gonna say this, 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:02.080 it's the number. What's the number in that one? Mikey? Well, 0:08:02.120 --> 0:08:04.520 I have fifty three and a half and a half, 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:07.320 all right there? My second Okay, Todd, I have I've 0:08:07.360 --> 0:08:10.640 have had two minutes left. I have the Seahawks minus three. 0:08:10.680 --> 0:08:14.000 I think they bound. They bounced back at home against 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:15.920 the fourth like, look at that's a tough loss. They 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:18.160 controlled that whole game. They should have won it. And 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:21.560 over it. I mean it was you know, Carol Bozo 0:08:21.600 --> 0:08:24.560 the Carroll uh, you know, finally reared his ugly head there. 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:26.160 I mean, he's gotten away with a lot of stuff here. 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:29.080 I still think this this offense is very explosive, and 0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:31.600 I don't think the forty Niners are gonna beat will 0:08:31.640 --> 0:08:33.480 slow them down. I think Seattle is going to get 0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:35.360 out to a quick start in this game now that 0:08:35.360 --> 0:08:37.560 they let Russell Wilson throw a forward pass in the 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:40.199 first half this year. And so I'll lay there is 0:08:40.240 --> 0:08:42.319 a field goal time. I have it as a field 0:08:42.320 --> 0:08:45.360 goal reduced juice field goal. And then I this is 0:08:45.400 --> 0:08:47.439 probably maybe not my third best play, but I was 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:50.000 just looking. I really like the Ravens over the Steelers 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:53.479 this week. This this Steelers defense. I know the rematches 0:08:53.520 --> 0:08:57.160 on Thanksgiving, uh, but I think this Ravens tea And 0:08:57.200 --> 0:08:58.720 you know, there's a handful of teams that have a 0:08:58.720 --> 0:09:01.440 good defense, and they're one of them. Um the Bears 0:09:01.480 --> 0:09:04.520 are another one. Anyhow, what are we giving him on 0:09:04.559 --> 0:09:06.520 that number? Is it three and a half or four? 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:08.440 It's three and a half or four. Yeah, it's close. 0:09:09.600 --> 0:09:13.920 That's very that's very general. It's very very generous of 0:09:13.960 --> 0:09:17.880 you guys to do that. Um yeah, So I like 0:09:17.960 --> 0:09:20.280 the Ravens big this week. I think they crushed the Steelers. 0:09:20.320 --> 0:09:22.800 You know, this is a hatred hating game, the rivalry 0:09:22.800 --> 0:09:25.920 and all this uh off to buy. I just think 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:28.280 that they're there'll be rested. Steelers had a tough game 0:09:28.320 --> 0:09:30.240 in Tennessee that could have went the other way as well. 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:34.680 Um So, all those are my three picks. I'll have 0:09:34.760 --> 0:09:36.480 comments on that one later because I think I'll be 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:41.120 picking that, but perhaps Todd's running it. Teaser Yeah, teaser 0:09:41.360 --> 0:09:44.320 packers is my packers is the first part of my 0:09:44.400 --> 0:09:48.880 teaser packers down to one? That okay with everybody? Can everybody? 0:09:49.160 --> 0:09:53.800 Can everybody agree on that number? Uh one? Green Bay 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:58.000 and I haven't even boo uh Jesus is a tough one, 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:00.920 just making it. How about how about Dolphins plus nine 0:10:00.920 --> 0:10:04.679 and a half? How about girls team the Miami Dolphins 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:12.160 to Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins. I wasn't ready for my song. 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:17.360 But I'll tell you, but I will tell you. I 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:22.599 think they can hang with the golf ster. Who's you 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:24.920 don't have any Thursday night thoughts? Do you tonight? No? 0:10:25.320 --> 0:10:27.559 My Thursday night thoughts are Let's see what stadium swim 0:10:27.559 --> 0:10:29.800 in the sports book looks like for our first NFL game. 0:10:29.840 --> 0:10:31.760 I'm I like the Eagle. You know I always fade 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:33.640 the Cowboys. There's no number on this game. We don't 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:35.880 know who's who's playing quarterback, but I'll probably lay the 0:10:35.920 --> 0:10:38.760 points with the Eagles when the number comes out. Uh, 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:42.280 and the game I want nothing to do with. Uh? 0:10:42.720 --> 0:10:45.400 What was the Eagles one? What category did that fall under? Well? 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:46.720 I would that would be a play if we had 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:48.600 a number on it, but it's off the board everywhere. 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:52.520 I have nine. I have nine all over the place. Yeah, okay, nine, 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:55.559 I'd late nine. I'd lake ten. Dallas just a random 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:59.360 bonus as a thought, one of my fading Dallas. Do 0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:04.559 you like the those hot Todd? I love the Eagles, BABYCC. 0:11:05.320 --> 0:11:10.640 Vinny Malula is starting a quarterback for Dallas. Yeah, Mayula 0:11:10.880 --> 0:11:15.040 Colts Lions. I don't want anything to do with good game. 0:11:15.080 --> 0:11:17.440 Could be a good game and favorite most likely lose outright? 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:21.599 Favorite most likely to lose outright is none of them? Uh? 0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:23.960 What is it's? It's only the Packers of the Chiefs. 0:11:23.960 --> 0:11:28.640 Are the Bucks? Uh right? Or the Eagles? But no, 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:31.600 they're not losing. Okay, I'll say the Bucks. No not really? 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:35.760 Uh what else do I have left here? Green Bay? 0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:38.160 Is it like that? But I like Green you like? 0:11:38.880 --> 0:11:40.560 I'll say the Road I'll say the road team the 0:11:40.559 --> 0:11:44.200 Bucks there, alright? Or Tampa Bayampa, Tampa Bay could lo 0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:46.520 they could lose, they could lose. What your official pick 0:11:46.600 --> 0:11:48.760 is they Tampa Bay is the tam most likely to lose. 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:52.280 Thank you everybody. Sorry to everybody, we didn't get to 0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:56.040 Bay alright, buddy continued success. Say hi to Sean Kavanaugh 0:11:56.080 --> 0:11:58.120 for me. Take care everyone, Thank you for your use 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:02.000 your studio here. Thank you, sir, Mike, paulm everybody. Uh, 0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:04.640 he's got a thing. He's a very busy man. They 0:12:04.679 --> 0:12:07.040 just opened a brand new casino for God's sake, So 0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:09.520 let's give my pass on that. So it's just the 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:14.920 three of us, gentlemen. Um Todd is the I want 0:12:14.920 --> 0:12:19.240 the update on on everybody? Please start, yes, please? Okay, 0:12:19.240 --> 0:12:22.920 So last week. The Gilly Ice Man did a great 0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:25.480 job with a nice two and one to move himself 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:29.360 to nine eleven and one and teasers win again. Six 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:33.439 and one for Gil, Mikey moved to two and one, 0:12:33.600 --> 0:12:35.600 two and one again, he moved to twelve eight and one. 0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:38.719 Very solid by Mikey, and he's won his teaser. He's 0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:41.720 also six and one on teasers. And I also had 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:43.560 a two and one week to move to nine and 0:12:43.600 --> 0:12:45.840 twelve and my teaser one as well, so I'm also 0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:48.080 six and one. So all three of us are six 0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:50.400 and one on teasers, which is quite interesting. Why did 0:12:50.400 --> 0:12:52.280 I see that one of us? Someone someone on Twitter 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:55.440 logs our picks and he called yours five one and one. 0:12:55.559 --> 0:12:57.480 Did he give you a push on the teaser or something? 0:12:58.679 --> 0:13:00.640 I don't I don't know what why he did that, 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:04.880 because easily there were all six of one. All right, um, 0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:06.720 all right. By the way, Jeff Parlay, the name of 0:13:06.720 --> 0:13:09.160 the podcast is the Parlay Podcast. How's that going for you? 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:14.320 Going going pretty well? Gil, all things considered? And uh, 0:13:14.559 --> 0:13:17.520 obviously we're with a book at sports Are app is 0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:19.920 coming on Sunday, so that that will be a lot 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:23.280 of fun. But the podcast is going well, and uh, 0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:25.760 and I'll say this, and I wish Mike was here 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:27.760 for this. I missed the hell out of you, Gil. 0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:29.200 I missed the hell out of Mike. It was great 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:33.040 to see Todd a few weeks ago when Todd destroyed 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:35.840 me in tennis, which was probably the least surprising result 0:13:36.320 --> 0:13:38.920 of the last six months for anything that has happened 0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:41.840 with any of us, I'll give I'll give u the 0:13:41.920 --> 0:13:45.120 former big man, some credit on that one there, Todd, Todd, 0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:48.520 were you down to wait? Wise, I've been. I've been 0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:51.120 around two forty six for the last three weeks because 0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:54.120 I haven't played tennis once. Because right after I whooped 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:57.360 up on Mr Parl's six oh six oh six wine, 0:13:57.440 --> 0:13:59.679 I knew that was kind. I got one game, Come on, 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:01.360 you gave it to me at the end. I got 0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:03.920 the first I got legitimately the first game we played, 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:07.760 six O six or whatever. The bottom line is, he 0:14:07.800 --> 0:14:10.839 got crushed. And after he got crushed, a couple of 0:14:10.880 --> 0:14:12.960 days later, I got a real bad hamstring injury. So 0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:15.800 I haven't been able to play. But I'm still hanging 0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:19.800 in at around two nice. I'm hanging in right where 0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:22.200 I was too, but starting to eat a little more. 0:14:22.320 --> 0:14:23.600 I'm a little worried I might be going to the 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:26.920 other direction. Um, all right, parlay you now or either 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:30.280 of you ever coming back to Las Vegas. Yes, I 0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:33.280 will be back. I will be back before the end 0:14:33.320 --> 0:14:35.520 of the year. I will be back before the end 0:14:35.560 --> 0:14:39.400 of the year. Um My, my girlfriend Margaret, who both 0:14:39.440 --> 0:14:43.680 of you know, has a has a physical therapy clinical 0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:45.760 that starts in the new year in Las Vegas. So 0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:48.960 we will definitely be there at the year's end to 0:14:49.120 --> 0:14:53.200 the beginning of next year for sure. God, I mean 0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:55.440 I I don't know exactly. I don'n't really have any 0:14:55.480 --> 0:14:57.640 plans right now exactly what's going to happen. I will 0:14:57.680 --> 0:15:00.400 tell you this. I am enjoying the hell out to 0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:03.120 be able to do things like betting team totals in 0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:07.120 game betting all kinds of incredible offerings that they have 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:09.680 at FanDuel and draft Kings and this one and that 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:13.120 one and the other one, and uh, it's just gonna 0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:15.400 feel like when I if I come back to Vegas, 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:18.960 like I'm going back in time. I just totally get it, man, 0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:22.080 I totally get me. For people who are just in 0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.960 Vegas all the time and they don't understand the offerings 0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:27.960 that are out there. It's just unbelievable. Yeah, it's uh, 0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:30.400 it's primitive here, it's primitive, and they don't view it 0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:33.840 as as competition because they think they're their own ecosystem. 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:36.360 But once one of those operators, let's say it's a 0:15:36.440 --> 0:15:39.400 Draft Kings or whoever shows up. Obviously Circuit does the 0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:42.080 best job out here by far. But if you if 0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:44.200 if one of those operators comes in here, I mean, 0:15:44.200 --> 0:15:46.440 everybody's gonna have to be forced to innovate. It's like, 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:48.480 why do I get ahead of that? It's very strange, 0:15:48.920 --> 0:15:52.480 very strange how the VET operates. And also why not 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:56.000 have all the offerings for people? I mean, people love 0:15:56.080 --> 0:15:58.440 to bet when there's things to bet on, yeah, you know, 0:15:58.520 --> 0:16:01.920 I mean it's like, yeah, it's it just doesn't make 0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:03.880 any sense. It's like, you know, they could buy the 0:16:03.920 --> 0:16:07.840 same service the DraftKings is buying. Right. I don't have 0:16:07.880 --> 0:16:10.800 an explanation. I really don't. I really there's no good 0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:14.160 explanation for it. Um. But again, shout out to Matt 0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:16.920 metcalf in the whole crew at Circle for doing their 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:19.960 best to innovate and really running a sports book the 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:22.440 way it's supposed to be run. Um, but it's just 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:25.160 it's a strange ecosystem, man, for sure, let's do it, 0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:27.640 Ben MGM. I've never been on bet mgm s app. 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:30.800 Do they have any like different offerings? And they do, 0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:33.680 but you know, Ben MGM and Ben MGM would even 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:36.720 admit this New Jersey is not always the same as Nevada, 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:39.560 so sometimes their new Jersey offerings are different or better 0:16:39.600 --> 0:16:42.800 than Nevada. But I will say this, I will give 0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:45.080 Ben MGM a lot of credit. They sponsor a numbers 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:47.040 game too, so let me just be full disclosure here. 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:51.040 Uh and DraftKings does sponsor Primetime Action, so I'm not 0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:55.120 just mentioning them because of that. But Ben MGM did 0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:57.600 a great job through baseball season. I thought here in 0:16:57.600 --> 0:17:01.120 Nevada keeping up like Awards pro when no one else did. 0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:03.960 So they surprise you a lot. They're like, oh wow, 0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:06.879 you can still bet Corey Seeger, you know, throughout the 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:10.200 sixty game season. Um. By the way, Corey Seeger completely 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:12.240 trolling me with my m v P picks at thirty 0:17:12.280 --> 0:17:13.480 to one when he got the m v P in 0:17:13.520 --> 0:17:16.160 both the nlcs of the World Series. But it's it's 0:17:16.520 --> 0:17:18.520 there's they will surprise you a bet MGM in Nevada. 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:21.240 But sometimes Ben MGM New Jersey will have some great 0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:23.280 things and we don't have it here, So you know, 0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:26.400 I don't know. It's very it's all very strange still here. 0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:29.040 Just uh, you know, one and a half years after 0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:32.840 the overturning of Pasma. Let's do our picks, boys, because 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:35.520 I got stuff to say about Survivor and teasers and 0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:37.960 all that. Well, let's start with our best bets. We'll 0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:40.040 do one to three here, parlay as all as we 0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:41.640 start with the guests, what is your number one best 0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:45.360 bet sider total in weekate? Sir? Number one is one 0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:47.840 that Mike picked and I agreed with him on that. 0:17:48.119 --> 0:17:52.720 The Seattle Seahawks lane three against the San Francisco forty Niners. Uh, 0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:55.119 it feels too good in all honesty, it feels like 0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:57.520 a little bit of an overreaction to what we saw 0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:00.800 last week. The Niners beat the but Jesus of a 0:18:00.920 --> 0:18:03.520 New England team that just, let's face it, the Patriots stink. 0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:06.919 That was just the Niners enforced their will on a 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:10.960 bad team and and one easily the Seahawks. They controlled 0:18:11.000 --> 0:18:15.239 that game. Russell Wilson threw three really bad interceptions that 0:18:15.280 --> 0:18:17.919 we normally don't see him even make one play like 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:20.439 that in the game, and he made three horrible plays 0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:22.440 and they still lost on a field goal in the 0:18:22.520 --> 0:18:25.480 last minute of overtime and one by the way, Arizona 0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:27.320 needed a ten point come back in the last five 0:18:27.320 --> 0:18:30.520 minutes of regulation even get toot So Seattle to me 0:18:30.800 --> 0:18:33.359 laying only a field goal at home against the Niner 0:18:33.400 --> 0:18:35.640 team that is still banged up, and a Niner team 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:37.760 that I'm still not convinced is all that good this 0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:40.120 year because of those injuries. Out of lay to three 0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:42.480 very happily with Seattle. Those are three of the worst 0:18:42.520 --> 0:18:46.280 passes of Russell Wilson's career. That was You're like, oh, wow, 0:18:46.280 --> 0:18:49.120 he's a human being after all, Todd, your number one, 0:18:51.000 --> 0:18:54.919 my number one pick is going to be. Let me 0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:57.879 just decide here. I'm gonna go with I'm gonna go 0:18:57.920 --> 0:18:59.720 with the Eagles. Yeah, I'm gonna go with the Eagles. 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:04.440 Eagle minus nine. Uh. You know, the Cowboys can't cover 0:19:04.480 --> 0:19:07.119 a game, and I'm always you know, nervous betting in 0:19:07.160 --> 0:19:09.840 the NFL against a team that's never covered. And sooner 0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:12.200 or later they will. I'm sure cover a game, but 0:19:12.359 --> 0:19:17.600 Ben de Nucci, Ben de Nucci, are you serious? This 0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:22.520 team is incredible. They couldn't protect Andy Dalton. Now they're 0:19:22.520 --> 0:19:25.760 gonna protect Ben de Nucci. I mean, gives me a break. 0:19:26.480 --> 0:19:28.359 I'm the Eagles. I'm not saying the Eagles are a 0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:31.320 great team by any means, but they're mediocre. But they 0:19:31.320 --> 0:19:33.440 should be able to slap the hell out of Ben 0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:36.239 de Nucci, I would think, especially at home. I mean, 0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:39.120 it's ridiculous, and it's not like their defense is any good, 0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:41.480 So you know, why not late the nine? Give me 0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:44.159 Dallas minus nine. You know, I know it's obvious, I mean, 0:19:44.320 --> 0:19:47.080 Eagles minus nine. I know it's obvious, but uh, I 0:19:47.160 --> 0:19:49.840 mean I think it's just bend Nucci. Come on, they 0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:52.919 gotta be kidding. Andy Dalton remains in concussion protocol. So 0:19:52.960 --> 0:19:55.760 as we do this Thursday morning, it is Ben Denucci. Uh. 0:19:55.800 --> 0:19:58.040 Here's a trivia question. By the way, Free boys ready 0:19:58.040 --> 0:20:04.199 for this, who leads among NFC East quarterbacks who leads 0:20:04.280 --> 0:20:08.960 the division in yards passing this year? Let me guess 0:20:09.040 --> 0:20:14.120 Kyle Allen Jeffrey. My guests would probably be uh, well, no, 0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:18.600 it would be Dak Prescott probably right. Dak Prescott still 0:20:18.680 --> 0:20:22.800 leads the NFC East in yards passing. Yeah, there there 0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:25.320 just gives you a sense of a division that the 0:20:25.320 --> 0:20:29.119 Eagles lead to four and one, Cowboys and Washington Football 0:20:29.160 --> 0:20:31.280 Teamers are two and five and their Giants bringing up 0:20:31.280 --> 0:20:32.920 the rear one and six. By the way, there is 0:20:32.960 --> 0:20:35.840 a prop over a DraftKings and we've talked about this 0:20:35.880 --> 0:20:38.280 for a couple of weeks. Now, what will the eventual 0:20:38.440 --> 0:20:42.359 NFC East winner have total wins? And it's at seven 0:20:42.400 --> 0:20:44.240 and a half. And last week the under was at 0:20:44.280 --> 0:20:46.680 plus one thirty seven. I was like, go under. This 0:20:46.720 --> 0:20:49.840 week the under is at plus one oh five. Not 0:20:49.960 --> 0:20:52.120 quite as much bang for your buck, but still plus money. 0:20:52.160 --> 0:20:54.800 I would still take the under, wouldn't you. I would 0:20:54.800 --> 0:20:57.440 take under seven because the worst you're gonna happen is 0:20:57.440 --> 0:20:59.600 a push. They're not getting eight because you got all 0:20:59.600 --> 0:21:04.120 those teams, Eagles, Washington Football Teamers, and Cowboys all would 0:21:04.160 --> 0:21:06.040 have to go six and three down the stretch. Giants 0:21:06.080 --> 0:21:08.639 would have to go seven and two. I mean, the 0:21:08.720 --> 0:21:11.679 only scenario schedules. I haven't looked at the schedules, but 0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:14.440 I can't sdules are difficult to begin with anyway. I 0:21:15.240 --> 0:21:17.919 that's under seven and a half plus money. It feels 0:21:17.960 --> 0:21:20.639 like a really good bet. They can. They get to 0:21:20.720 --> 0:21:22.320 beat up on each other, they get they get a 0:21:22.320 --> 0:21:24.719 lot of inherent winds right within the division, so they 0:21:24.760 --> 0:21:26.920 do get some wins because they get to play each other. 0:21:27.000 --> 0:21:29.880 So there's that, but still six and three. The only 0:21:29.920 --> 0:21:32.080 scenario I can see, and I was saying this this morning, 0:21:32.680 --> 0:21:35.920 is let's say somehow the Cowboys upset the Eagles this week. 0:21:35.960 --> 0:21:37.679 Just play along with me, because you know, the Eagles 0:21:37.720 --> 0:21:40.160 barely beat the Giants to some say, some would argue 0:21:40.280 --> 0:21:43.800 shouldn't have. Let's say that Cowboys somehow win and then 0:21:43.840 --> 0:21:47.600 before the trade deadline they pick up Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's 0:21:47.640 --> 0:21:49.360 the only way I can see it happening. But it's 0:21:49.359 --> 0:21:53.280 currently constituted. That's an under no doubt to me, I 0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:55.320 love it under I agree. The other point I was 0:21:55.359 --> 0:21:57.119 making was I did a little research on this. So 0:21:57.240 --> 0:21:59.880 if you win the NFC East, you get a home playoff, 0:22:00.040 --> 0:22:04.160 a which is comical to begin with. You also can 0:22:04.160 --> 0:22:08.680 only pick at best nineteen in the draft, no better 0:22:08.760 --> 0:22:11.600 than nineteen, and if you don't win the NFC East, 0:22:11.600 --> 0:22:14.400 you're gonna have a top ten pick. Most likely. Why 0:22:14.440 --> 0:22:16.879 would you want to win this division? That's a huge 0:22:16.920 --> 0:22:21.760 gap between ten and nineteen. That's awful anyway, random NFC's thoughts. 0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:24.800 My number one pick is that I'm gonna debate between 0:22:24.800 --> 0:22:27.679 my three which I like the best. Uh. What I 0:22:27.680 --> 0:22:30.080 did guessing lines on Monday. We didn't have Chrissy this 0:22:30.119 --> 0:22:32.439 week because Chrissie tested positive. For those who missed it, 0:22:32.560 --> 0:22:35.840 Chris Andrews tested positive for the coronavirus. The last guy 0:22:35.880 --> 0:22:37.680 we want to test positive for corona. By the way, 0:22:37.720 --> 0:22:41.159 he is doing better. He said, I still has coughing, fits, 0:22:41.440 --> 0:22:45.040 still has some other sort of intestinal stuff going on, 0:22:45.080 --> 0:22:46.399 but he says he's feeling better. We hope to hap 0:22:46.480 --> 0:22:48.440 him next week. So when we did a bastardized version 0:22:48.440 --> 0:22:51.040 of guessing lines on Monday, this was the line. The 0:22:51.040 --> 0:22:53.960 Pittsburgh Baltimore line was the line that I could not understand. 0:22:54.160 --> 0:22:55.440 Five and a half. I was like, it's three and 0:22:55.480 --> 0:22:57.359 a half at worst. Where do they get five and 0:22:57.359 --> 0:23:01.240 a half from? I thought three. I still like Pittsburgh 0:23:01.240 --> 0:23:03.240 at three and a half, even at four, and obviously 0:23:03.280 --> 0:23:05.960 even at four, which we're seeing it's sort of toggling 0:23:06.000 --> 0:23:07.760 between those two. But let's say it's three and a half. 0:23:08.160 --> 0:23:10.720 I like the Pittsburgh Steelers, but I will concede this. 0:23:11.920 --> 0:23:14.760 It is always favorable in any sport, but certainly in 0:23:14.800 --> 0:23:17.720 the NFL to take a lead early. I don't think 0:23:17.720 --> 0:23:20.920 there's ever been a matchup where having the lead early 0:23:21.000 --> 0:23:24.639 will mean more. Baltimore is the quintessential come from a 0:23:24.680 --> 0:23:27.960 head team. They're a great front running team. They're a 0:23:28.160 --> 0:23:30.800 terrible come from behind team. They're not constituted with Lamar 0:23:30.920 --> 0:23:35.080 Jackson to come from behind. Conversely, Pittsburgh could not have 0:23:35.119 --> 0:23:38.520 been more dominant against Tennessee last week. First quarter and 0:23:38.640 --> 0:23:40.679 change when they were up fourteen to nothing. It was 0:23:40.720 --> 0:23:43.800 one and sixty total yards to one, and they were 0:23:43.840 --> 0:23:46.400 dominating the clock. I think the one three and out 0:23:46.400 --> 0:23:48.439 that Tennessee had only had a minute twenty one. So 0:23:48.480 --> 0:23:50.600 it was this unbelievable dominance at the beginning of the 0:23:50.640 --> 0:23:53.600 game for Pittsburgh. That was why they held on to 0:23:53.680 --> 0:23:55.600 win that game against Tennessee because Big Ben had some 0:23:55.680 --> 0:23:56.960 mistakes at the end of the first half of the 0:23:57.040 --> 0:23:59.920 end of the game. So for me, this game will 0:24:00.080 --> 0:24:03.000 be very interesting to see who who starts out on top, 0:24:03.040 --> 0:24:05.600 because that might dictate the rest of the football game. 0:24:05.760 --> 0:24:08.919 In fact, I would imagine it would. So Pittsburgh is 0:24:08.960 --> 0:24:11.040 the pick plus three and a half. I think if 0:24:11.080 --> 0:24:14.639 they get ahead early, they cover that. If they fall behind, 0:24:15.200 --> 0:24:17.160 you might know very early that it's a bad pick. 0:24:17.200 --> 0:24:18.800 But I'll take Pittsburgh plus the three and a half. 0:24:18.840 --> 0:24:21.320 You're giving me three and a half as the only 0:24:21.840 --> 0:24:24.800 undefeated team in the NFL. I will take that three 0:24:24.800 --> 0:24:27.480 and a half, knowing Baltimore's weakness if they fall behind. 0:24:27.640 --> 0:24:32.800 So that's my number one pick. Number two, Jeffrey, I'm 0:24:32.800 --> 0:24:36.960 gonna go to tonight. I I know going on Thursday 0:24:37.040 --> 0:24:41.600 night games is usually not a popular move, but Carolina 0:24:41.720 --> 0:24:44.280 laying only now it's a consensus one and a half. 0:24:44.359 --> 0:24:48.080 Now with Carolina laying that against the Falcons, I'll think 0:24:48.160 --> 0:24:51.080 the Panthers very happily laying only one and a half. 0:24:51.400 --> 0:24:53.920 Caroline is going to score thirty points in this game, 0:24:54.400 --> 0:24:57.159 and the Falcons at this point, even if they have 0:24:57.240 --> 0:25:00.000 a lead in the fourth quarter, there's about a sevent 0:25:00.000 --> 0:25:03.680 a chance they're gonna blow it anyway. So I like Carolina. 0:25:03.720 --> 0:25:06.320 They're the better football team. The only concern is that 0:25:06.440 --> 0:25:10.240 deep defense stage, but you don't want I trust Teddy Bridgewater. 0:25:10.320 --> 0:25:12.359 I think d J. Moore and Robby Anderson both have 0:25:12.480 --> 0:25:16.159 huge games against that bad secondary. So I'll take Carolina 0:25:16.200 --> 0:25:19.160 minus one and a half very happily tonight. Teddy Bridgewater 0:25:19.280 --> 0:25:23.119 on Sunday against the Saints, it was twenty seven to 0:25:23.160 --> 0:25:24.960 twenty four, which was the eventual final score, but it's 0:25:25.800 --> 0:25:28.440 four Bridgewater, who was twenty three of twenty eight on 0:25:28.480 --> 0:25:30.720 the game for two fifty two touchdowns, no pick in 0:25:30.760 --> 0:25:33.800 a sack. He had a third and eleven. The Panthers 0:25:33.840 --> 0:25:36.640 had third and eleven at the Saints thirty nine down 0:25:38.280 --> 0:25:40.400 and the play before the two minute warning on third 0:25:40.400 --> 0:25:44.360 and eleven, he takes an eight yard sack and that 0:25:44.520 --> 0:25:47.160 was the That was the game right there, because coming 0:25:47.160 --> 0:25:49.720 back from the two minute warning break, they attempt a 0:25:49.800 --> 0:25:52.840 sixty five yard field will attempt from Joey Sly that 0:25:52.920 --> 0:25:55.640 probably goes sixty three and a half yards and so 0:25:55.680 --> 0:25:58.440 as long as he learns not to take that sack, 0:25:59.000 --> 0:26:01.680 uh sky's the limit for Teddy Bridgewater. By the way, 0:26:01.680 --> 0:26:03.240 we did, we didn't do the Thursday night segment because 0:26:03.240 --> 0:26:05.720 we're all out of We're all fora cocta on the 0:26:05.800 --> 0:26:08.399 format today. But the only thing that I'm doing tonight 0:26:08.440 --> 0:26:11.159 I'm doing a Falcon's over tease. I already put that 0:26:11.200 --> 0:26:13.480 bed in tease me through the three of the seven. 0:26:14.200 --> 0:26:17.160 Give me the over Falcons over tease, Todd number two. 0:26:18.320 --> 0:26:22.200 My number two pick is going to be this Chicago 0:26:22.520 --> 0:26:27.480 Bears the Bears. I'm gonna go with the Bears. Uh. 0:26:27.520 --> 0:26:29.720 You know I was down on the Bears earlier. I 0:26:29.840 --> 0:26:33.679 kept saying they were a joke. Um. I sort of 0:26:33.800 --> 0:26:35.760 had a chance to take advantage of that by betting 0:26:35.760 --> 0:26:37.760 the Rams at halftime, and then, like an idiot, I 0:26:37.800 --> 0:26:40.679 got off of it. But I I didn't like the Bears. 0:26:40.760 --> 0:26:44.160 But in this spot, I'm gonna take the Bears because 0:26:44.160 --> 0:26:47.200 I'm getting four and a half points. And here's the thing. 0:26:47.600 --> 0:26:50.480 I don't think New Orleans is that good, and I 0:26:50.600 --> 0:26:54.240 certainly don't think they're that good outside on grass there. 0:26:54.280 --> 0:26:56.280 New Orleans to me, has always been a turf team. 0:26:56.320 --> 0:26:59.320 You put Drew Brees on grass and things seem to 0:26:59.359 --> 0:27:03.000 not go as well for that team historically. Uh, you know, 0:27:03.600 --> 0:27:06.639 the Bears have a real nice defense. It's not like 0:27:06.680 --> 0:27:09.280 the Saints are stopping anybody. Carolina scored a million on 0:27:09.359 --> 0:27:11.840 him last week. Everybody who played the Saints this year 0:27:11.920 --> 0:27:14.560 scored a lot of points. If the Saints are going 0:27:14.600 --> 0:27:16.640 to give up points, it's gonna be hard to win 0:27:16.720 --> 0:27:19.720 by four and a half. And as well as on 0:27:19.720 --> 0:27:21.760 on top of that, I don't know that the Saints 0:27:21.800 --> 0:27:25.840 are gonna go gangbusters on the road in the cold 0:27:25.880 --> 0:27:28.560 in Chicago. You know, four and a half is a 0:27:28.560 --> 0:27:30.720 lot in an NFL game, especially against the team that 0:27:30.760 --> 0:27:33.480 has a nice defense. Give me the Bears. The Bears 0:27:33.480 --> 0:27:35.280 plus four and a half. I can't say I expected 0:27:35.320 --> 0:27:37.320 that one, but the Bears plus four and a half. 0:27:37.680 --> 0:27:39.560 By the way, just looking up at the screens, the 0:27:39.680 --> 0:27:42.399 weekly COVID report, and this has everything to do with 0:27:42.440 --> 0:27:45.080 people who are in contests, uh, people who are in 0:27:45.160 --> 0:27:48.639 survivor especially who have to be really aware of of 0:27:48.760 --> 0:27:51.160 COVID outbreaks and if it might postpone a game because 0:27:51.160 --> 0:27:54.240 of all the contest rules. Uh. The Chargers had one 0:27:54.359 --> 0:27:57.480 positive COVID test this morning, and apparently the Giants have 0:27:57.760 --> 0:28:01.919 multiple on their team in the front office, so just 0:28:02.080 --> 0:28:06.159 keep that in mind. UM. Giants scheduled to play the 0:28:06.200 --> 0:28:09.560 Bucks on Monday night. The Charger schedule to play Denver 0:28:09.640 --> 0:28:12.640 in an afternoon game. UH, this coming Sunday, Week number eight, 0:28:12.640 --> 0:28:15.960 my number two pick is call me crazy. I'll leave 0:28:16.000 --> 0:28:18.359 some room for you guys. Call me crazy. I'm taking 0:28:18.400 --> 0:28:21.199 the New England Patriots plus three and a half against 0:28:21.200 --> 0:28:24.760 the Buffalo Bills. And I know the Patriots look like ass. 0:28:25.160 --> 0:28:31.040 They just look terrible. Um. I shouldn't really diminish very 0:28:31.119 --> 0:28:34.359 nice looking asses perhaps, but New England plus three and 0:28:34.400 --> 0:28:37.680 a half to me, Buffalo is the most one dimensional 0:28:37.680 --> 0:28:41.720 team in football, and offensively, uh Josh Allen tucking the 0:28:41.720 --> 0:28:44.320 ball under and running is by far their best play 0:28:44.400 --> 0:28:47.200 on offense. And what have we talked about with Bill 0:28:47.240 --> 0:28:50.680 Belichick through the years. The one thing that he is 0:28:50.800 --> 0:28:54.360 great at is taking away the offense is strength. You're 0:28:54.360 --> 0:28:58.040 gonna beat me, beat me with other options, not with 0:28:58.120 --> 0:29:00.840 your best. And I know New England's stats last week, 0:29:01.040 --> 0:29:03.960 worst start since two thousand now currently first three game 0:29:04.040 --> 0:29:06.800 losing streaks since two thousand two. Belichick with his worst 0:29:06.840 --> 0:29:08.840 home loss last week as a Patriot's head coach by 0:29:08.840 --> 0:29:11.320 twenty seven points to the Niners. Out gained by two 0:29:11.920 --> 0:29:13.640 two yards in the first half by the Niners. It's 0:29:13.680 --> 0:29:17.760 the worst first half differential under Belichick ever. But I 0:29:17.840 --> 0:29:21.040 like him against this Bill's offense, which could not get 0:29:21.080 --> 0:29:23.880 into the end zone against your New York Jets. Jeffrey 0:29:24.040 --> 0:29:27.280 couldn't get in there. I had Buffalo and survivor one 0:29:27.320 --> 0:29:29.360 of the men who had Buffalo and survivor. And I 0:29:29.400 --> 0:29:32.000 will say this, on the one hand, it was the 0:29:32.080 --> 0:29:36.600 least sweat filled one score survivor win ever, survivor advancement ever, 0:29:36.640 --> 0:29:39.960 because the Jets got four yards of offense four total 0:29:40.040 --> 0:29:42.120 yards of offense in the second half against the Bills, 0:29:42.160 --> 0:29:44.920 so it really felt like even though one flukey play 0:29:45.000 --> 0:29:46.800 could have beaten the Bills, it was never in doubt. 0:29:47.120 --> 0:29:49.080 On the other hand, did say more about the Jets 0:29:49.160 --> 0:29:51.040 or did say more about the Bills, I'm not really 0:29:51.120 --> 0:29:54.600 quite sure. I like the Patriots, and this game is 0:29:54.760 --> 0:29:58.880 everything for New England. They lose this, their season is done. Zo. 0:29:59.000 --> 0:30:01.800 It's that dire. I'll take the three and a half 0:30:01.920 --> 0:30:07.280 New England. My second dog of the day is Yeah, 0:30:07.480 --> 0:30:09.680 no issue with that pick at all. I'm with Todd. 0:30:09.720 --> 0:30:11.680 I kind of like the spot for the Patriots the 0:30:11.960 --> 0:30:14.520 h and also to It's Bell, We've never seen a 0:30:14.560 --> 0:30:18.280 Belichick team in this scenario where their season is on 0:30:18.320 --> 0:30:21.600 the line this early in the year. So I'm getting 0:30:21.600 --> 0:30:23.680 three and a half against a Buffalo team. Then again, 0:30:23.760 --> 0:30:26.680 like you said, one dimensional with Alan just really using 0:30:26.680 --> 0:30:28.560 his feed more than his arm. I have no problem 0:30:28.560 --> 0:30:30.360 with that, and as I give that pick right up 0:30:30.360 --> 0:30:33.000 on the screen as if on cue. Julian Edelman will 0:30:33.120 --> 0:30:36.520 not play this weekend for the Patriots with his knee 0:30:36.560 --> 0:30:38.720 injury in case there was any doubt about his data, 0:30:38.840 --> 0:30:40.720 So he is, he is out. But I am taking 0:30:40.720 --> 0:30:42.480 the Patriots plus three and a half is my number 0:30:42.480 --> 0:30:47.200 two pick, Jeff number three. I I can't believe I'm 0:30:47.240 --> 0:30:51.600 doing this on on in public in anything, guys, but 0:30:52.240 --> 0:30:54.440 my number three pick is the Kansas City Chiefs minus 0:30:54.520 --> 0:30:58.440 nineteen and a half against my Jets, because because here's 0:30:58.480 --> 0:31:02.280 the deal. How the Jets scoring more than a touchdown 0:31:02.320 --> 0:31:06.320 in this game, and that's how they have four yards 0:31:06.360 --> 0:31:08.920 of offense like you said against the Bills defense. That 0:31:09.000 --> 0:31:11.600 let's face, the Bill's defense has not been good this year, 0:31:12.120 --> 0:31:15.560 and the Jets moved the ball for four American football 0:31:15.640 --> 0:31:18.840 yards in the second half, which should be impossible at 0:31:18.880 --> 0:31:22.440 the NFL level regardless of how awful you are. And 0:31:22.600 --> 0:31:25.240 Kansas City keeping this in mind with Kansas City, the 0:31:25.320 --> 0:31:29.360 Chief's offense last week didn't do a lot against Denver. 0:31:29.440 --> 0:31:31.520 They scored on a short field at the end with 0:31:31.600 --> 0:31:34.720 his backups, a pick six and a kick return, So 0:31:34.760 --> 0:31:38.160 they're coming off a not great offensive performance. A week 0:31:38.200 --> 0:31:41.240 before they ran all over Buffalo, so Mahomes has not 0:31:41.320 --> 0:31:44.479 had a mahomesy and performance in a while. This feels 0:31:44.520 --> 0:31:47.920 like Kansas City's up twenty eight nothing immediately, and the 0:31:48.000 --> 0:31:50.920 only way I'm sweating is if Chad hand He plays 0:31:50.960 --> 0:31:53.840 the whole second half and scores the Jets a touchdown 0:31:53.920 --> 0:31:57.080 with a pick six. So I'm I'm doing it. I'm 0:31:57.160 --> 0:31:59.160 laying in the nineteen and a half with Kansas City. 0:31:59.480 --> 0:32:01.160 I don't think it's enough. I thought it should have 0:32:01.160 --> 0:32:03.920 been twenty three, Gill, I really did. I thought there 0:32:03.920 --> 0:32:06.160 should have been twenty three with Kansas City. So nineteen 0:32:06.200 --> 0:32:07.960 and a half, I'm getting four and a half better. 0:32:07.960 --> 0:32:09.640 At four and a half points better than I thought. 0:32:09.800 --> 0:32:11.880 I'll lay it. I would have guessed twenty one on 0:32:11.960 --> 0:32:13.960 guessing lines. That would have been my guest twenty one. 0:32:14.000 --> 0:32:17.720 But it's nine score Kansas City Chiefs twenty six Jet 0:32:17.840 --> 0:32:22.600 at seven Ye right now totally and Chad Headie throws 0:32:22.640 --> 0:32:25.320 his pick six with three and a half minutes left. Um, 0:32:26.040 --> 0:32:30.920 remember last year, similar scenario, Week three Jets lane excuse me, 0:32:30.960 --> 0:32:33.400 Patriots lane twenty and a half against the Jets in 0:32:33.480 --> 0:32:36.360 Week three and the Jets did not have an offensive 0:32:36.360 --> 0:32:39.480 touchdown but covered because they were covered a fumble on 0:32:39.520 --> 0:32:41.600 a punt in the end zone for a touchdown and 0:32:41.760 --> 0:32:46.760 Jack that resolutely remind me of that game. I had 0:32:46.840 --> 0:32:49.200 Jets under team total ten and a half in that 0:32:49.280 --> 0:32:53.840 game the Patriots mus twenty and a half and that 0:32:53.920 --> 0:32:59.800 one and it's thart speaking of speaking of props, that 0:33:00.120 --> 0:33:02.160 there is an O N sixteen prop out there. There's 0:33:02.160 --> 0:33:05.480 a sixteen and oh but the no is like ridiculously cartoonish, 0:33:05.680 --> 0:33:09.560 uh cartoonishly used Pittsburgh's not going sixteen. But there's an 0:33:09.600 --> 0:33:12.000 O N sixteen one that has existed now for a 0:33:12.000 --> 0:33:15.600 few weeks. And it existed when the Giants and Falcons 0:33:15.600 --> 0:33:18.280 were both winless as well, and it was for the 0:33:18.360 --> 0:33:20.680 Jets specifically, or was it all three? I can't remember. 0:33:20.720 --> 0:33:22.280 I think it was a Jet specifically at that time, 0:33:22.880 --> 0:33:24.440 because there was one with all three and I said, well, 0:33:24.440 --> 0:33:26.040 the Falcons are gonna win a couple of games, at 0:33:26.080 --> 0:33:28.360 least a few games, And the Giants were favored that 0:33:28.400 --> 0:33:30.920 week against Washington. They ended up winning, so it really 0:33:30.920 --> 0:33:32.240 did come down to the Jets, and you could have 0:33:32.240 --> 0:33:34.680 gotten them at north of plus seven hundred to go 0:33:34.760 --> 0:33:36.800 o N sixteen, And I was like, you gotta play that. 0:33:36.840 --> 0:33:38.800 It's a great you know, it would be a fun bet. 0:33:39.000 --> 0:33:41.760 Not mathematically great, but it's a fun bet for people 0:33:41.800 --> 0:33:44.080 having if you look at their schedule. It was the 0:33:44.120 --> 0:33:46.080 second Miami game where you're like, well, if that would 0:33:46.080 --> 0:33:49.520 be Twah's first game, maybe you could see the Jets 0:33:49.520 --> 0:33:53.560 winning that game. Uh, now it's plus two thirty five. 0:33:53.680 --> 0:33:56.320 I believe on the Jets going oh in sixteen, which 0:33:56.360 --> 0:34:00.560 mathematically is a horrible number. However, uh, trying not to 0:34:00.560 --> 0:34:02.120 be too close to the sun and realize that people 0:34:02.200 --> 0:34:04.280 just like fun bets sometimes. If you look at the 0:34:04.320 --> 0:34:09.200 Jet schedule, they gotta lose nine more games, um, nine 0:34:09.200 --> 0:34:11.200 more games or ten more games? What are they? Seven? Yeah? 0:34:11.320 --> 0:34:14.120 And seven nine more games? And you look at the 0:34:14.160 --> 0:34:17.000 schedule like, where's the loss And the only thing we 0:34:17.040 --> 0:34:19.920 could come up with was if you bet the plus 0:34:19.960 --> 0:34:22.440 money on the no, which again mathematically is not great, 0:34:22.480 --> 0:34:26.080 but it's still a fun bet. Week seventeen might be 0:34:26.160 --> 0:34:28.880 the problem because if New England doesn't have anything to 0:34:28.920 --> 0:34:33.200 play for. In Week seventeen, maybe they play without any 0:34:33.239 --> 0:34:37.040 care motivation and the Jets sneak in a win after 0:34:37.120 --> 0:34:40.080 being oh in fifteen to kill those bets. But other 0:34:40.120 --> 0:34:45.080 than that, do you see a loss? Would the manual 0:34:45.160 --> 0:34:47.480 nine team parlay make you even more money if you 0:34:47.560 --> 0:34:49.560 just bet against the Jets every week on the money? 0:34:51.400 --> 0:34:54.000 What I'm saying, mathematically, I've said it several times. Mathematically 0:34:54.000 --> 0:34:56.719 it's terrible bet right plus two thirty five should be 0:34:56.800 --> 0:34:58.920 way better than that. But some people are like, I 0:34:58.960 --> 0:35:01.920 don't care. You know, we as we immerse ourselves in gambling, 0:35:01.920 --> 0:35:03.560 we have to realize there's a lot of audience out there. 0:35:03.560 --> 0:35:06.680 It's just like, I just want fun bets. I just 0:35:06.719 --> 0:35:10.440 don't see lost. Besides that one Daryl and all honesty, 0:35:10.719 --> 0:35:14.840 where the wind may come from for him? Uh? The 0:35:14.880 --> 0:35:16.600 Bear and I were tweeting back at this a few 0:35:16.640 --> 0:35:18.719 weeks ago, when it was apparent that this could very 0:35:18.760 --> 0:35:23.880 easily happen. Week sixteen, the Jets host Cleveland. I could 0:35:23.960 --> 0:35:27.319 very much see a scenario where the Browns need a 0:35:27.400 --> 0:35:31.080 win to stay in the playoffs and the Jets win 0:35:31.200 --> 0:35:35.160 that game just because of course you'll have and also 0:35:35.200 --> 0:35:37.640 to make matters worse on that. I wouldn't be shocked 0:35:37.680 --> 0:35:42.080 Gil if Jacksonville at this point goes one in fifteen 0:35:42.760 --> 0:35:45.799 and they're gonna have an easier schedule than the Jets. 0:35:45.840 --> 0:35:48.040 So in order for the Jets to get the number 0:35:48.040 --> 0:35:50.160 one pick and get the rights to Trevor Lawrence, in 0:35:50.200 --> 0:35:53.200 all likelihood, they gotta go lose out at this point, 0:35:53.200 --> 0:35:55.600 I really do think that, Gil. So there's a lot 0:35:55.680 --> 0:35:57.880 on the line for the Jets going oh in sixteen, 0:35:57.920 --> 0:36:02.080 including those bets, which look again, I don't unless of 0:36:02.239 --> 0:36:04.560 Vegas really lays an egg on an east coast trip 0:36:04.600 --> 0:36:07.839 in the first week of December. Ah, that week seventeen thing. 0:36:07.880 --> 0:36:10.440 But Belichick will have this guys ready to play against 0:36:10.440 --> 0:36:12.920 the Jets, you know how he hates them. So I 0:36:12.920 --> 0:36:14.720 don't know. I don't see a win on this schedule 0:36:14.760 --> 0:36:17.080 at this point. I really don't Where are we, guys, 0:36:17.120 --> 0:36:19.160 in terms of where we are the rotation. Jeff did 0:36:19.760 --> 0:36:23.160 a third pick third, Jeff. Jeff gave three, Mikey gave 0:36:23.239 --> 0:36:25.160 three me, and you gave to Gil. Okay, so you 0:36:25.200 --> 0:36:27.880 want me to give my third, yes, sir. First of all, 0:36:27.920 --> 0:36:29.399 I want to just say before you give my third 0:36:29.440 --> 0:36:31.479 What the hell did Mikey talking about? Is Todd really 0:36:31.520 --> 0:36:34.000 like that? What do you mean informative and entertaining? Yeah, 0:36:34.120 --> 0:36:37.279 Todd's exactly like that. Informative and entertaining. What the hell 0:36:37.320 --> 0:36:40.880 are they talking about? I don't know. I don't know. 0:36:40.920 --> 0:36:43.080 You know, I love you, Toddy. You know what. I'm 0:36:43.120 --> 0:36:46.560 tired of people. I really am tired of people. Tired 0:36:46.640 --> 0:36:48.719 of people. People. Didn't you want to say on on 0:36:48.719 --> 0:36:51.080 one of your first Numbers Game appearances, didn't you? I said? 0:36:51.239 --> 0:36:53.440 People suck? And I think you responded with people one 0:36:53.480 --> 0:36:59.480 of the worst inventions ever. Terrible inventions. Terrible Anyways, Uh, 0:36:59.680 --> 0:37:02.759 my third pick I am going to go. I'm really 0:37:02.800 --> 0:37:06.760 torn between taking Carolina along with Jeffrey, but since Jeffrey 0:37:06.760 --> 0:37:09.719 took Carolina, I'm gonna do the other pick that I like, 0:37:10.200 --> 0:37:15.640 which is the Detroit Motown Lions. Give me the Lions 0:37:15.840 --> 0:37:19.080 under the Radar. They won for me last week and 0:37:19.160 --> 0:37:23.000 that heartbreaking, crazy like heart attack game with the ridiculous 0:37:23.040 --> 0:37:25.880 Todd Gurley nonsense when I had the plus four at 0:37:25.880 --> 0:37:28.799 halftime and then I had to watch them score when 0:37:28.800 --> 0:37:31.319 they shouldn't score and get the two point conversion to 0:37:31.360 --> 0:37:33.560 break my heart, and then come down and get the 0:37:33.600 --> 0:37:35.680 great catch at the eight r line, and then Matt 0:37:35.680 --> 0:37:38.839 Stafford on the last play playing Matthew Ice. Baby. That's 0:37:38.880 --> 0:37:42.160 Matthew Ice, not Maddie Ice, the real Matthew Ice Baby 0:37:42.400 --> 0:37:48.719 Ice Man. Anyways, Lions I think are a little bit 0:37:48.719 --> 0:37:51.520 better than people realize. Had they beaten the Bears that 0:37:51.600 --> 0:37:54.440 game earlier in the year, they would have a respectable record. 0:37:54.760 --> 0:37:56.800 I think the Lions are really not that bad a 0:37:56.840 --> 0:37:59.960 football team. I think they're pretty decent. And you now 0:38:00.160 --> 0:38:03.400 have Philly Rivers going on the road. We've all seen 0:38:03.520 --> 0:38:07.120 Philly Rivers before the Philly Rivers show, right, don't you 0:38:07.160 --> 0:38:09.520 know what this game could look like late? You know, 0:38:09.640 --> 0:38:14.000 Philip Rivers driving down and do does something stupid, and 0:38:14.200 --> 0:38:18.320 you know, you go, nice job betting against phil Rivers. 0:38:18.719 --> 0:38:22.040 Give me Detroit lines. I know Indiapolis is good, but 0:38:22.080 --> 0:38:24.440 are they Are they really good enough to be laying 0:38:25.000 --> 0:38:27.200 two and a half minus twenty five? Why the way? 0:38:27.239 --> 0:38:28.920 What line do you have? The real line is really 0:38:29.040 --> 0:38:32.920 three for me if you look at the juice. Uh yeah, 0:38:32.920 --> 0:38:35.719 but it's two and a half extra juice. Okay, fine, 0:38:35.719 --> 0:38:37.719 So I'll just say I don't even care. I don't 0:38:37.760 --> 0:38:39.480 even need the three. Give me the two and a 0:38:39.520 --> 0:38:42.239 half with the Detroit lines. I'd much rather have the three. 0:38:42.239 --> 0:38:44.320 And if I was playing this for real, I would 0:38:44.320 --> 0:38:46.440 play play it with the three because you got all 0:38:46.480 --> 0:38:49.560 that juice there. But um, you know, give me the Detrod. 0:38:49.719 --> 0:38:51.600 I don't think the culture that good. They should be 0:38:51.600 --> 0:38:54.680 going on the road, you know, to beat the decent team. 0:38:54.719 --> 0:38:57.080 The lines are really not that bad. Why were they? 0:38:57.080 --> 0:38:59.200 Why were the Why were the cults so obsessed with 0:38:59.239 --> 0:39:01.359 getting Philip was? I know you refused to call him Philip, 0:39:01.400 --> 0:39:05.160 You going Philip Philly, but like they didn't. They didn't 0:39:05.160 --> 0:39:07.439 even look for anybody Else's like Philip Rivers, that's our guy. 0:39:07.760 --> 0:39:10.239 It's like every sports better was like, why why are 0:39:10.239 --> 0:39:12.879 you doing this? Why are you doing it? Could be 0:39:12.880 --> 0:39:15.440 because he won a lot of games against the Colts 0:39:15.880 --> 0:39:18.160 in his career. I remember a bunch of games. I 0:39:18.160 --> 0:39:20.160 don't know if you remember this, but when Peyton Manning 0:39:20.200 --> 0:39:23.200 was with the Colts, they the Chargers played them a 0:39:23.280 --> 0:39:25.959 number of times as big dogs and played them very tough. 0:39:26.000 --> 0:39:28.239 Maybe that was it. I don't know, because I don't 0:39:28.280 --> 0:39:31.239 see it. I think he's he's I mean, pass this 0:39:31.360 --> 0:39:33.879 time years ago. Let's let's go back to that thing 0:39:33.880 --> 0:39:36.640 you were talking about with Todd Gurley again. I'm sure 0:39:36.640 --> 0:39:40.200 everybody is well aware Todd Gurley with the with the 0:39:40.200 --> 0:39:43.279 Falcons up and there by the way, NFL Films has 0:39:43.440 --> 0:39:47.880 the audio of of Matt Ryan in the huddle saying 0:39:48.239 --> 0:39:51.239 just remember first down and go down, first down and 0:39:51.280 --> 0:39:56.120 go down, and uh he said, don't score, Yeah, don't score. 0:39:56.160 --> 0:39:58.239 And Todd Gurley was right next to him. I don't 0:39:58.280 --> 0:39:59.840 know if he heard it. I don't even acknowledge that 0:40:00.719 --> 0:40:02.960 he remembered to split second too late, right, just like 0:40:03.040 --> 0:40:04.920 Devin Ford of Penn State the day before it did 0:40:04.960 --> 0:40:08.000 against Indiana to put Penn State up twenty to twenty, 0:40:08.000 --> 0:40:10.160 and of course Indiana matriculated down the field, got the 0:40:10.160 --> 0:40:13.359 two point conversion, forced overtime, and wanted on a ridiculously 0:40:13.480 --> 0:40:17.640 short two point conversion. Uh. The next day Todd Gurley 0:40:17.680 --> 0:40:20.600 does the same thing in Detroit, goes right downfield, Matt 0:40:20.600 --> 0:40:23.959 Stafford hits t. J. Hockenson at the buzzer, if you will, 0:40:24.000 --> 0:40:26.239 and then they then they convert a forty eight yard 0:40:26.320 --> 0:40:29.759 extra point after a penalty to beat the Falcons. But 0:40:29.800 --> 0:40:31.840 what I was getting at there was the biggest single 0:40:31.920 --> 0:40:34.320 thing I think you can talk about with NFL betting 0:40:34.400 --> 0:40:36.400 is and I use the word plinko again, attribute to 0:40:36.440 --> 0:40:39.880 the old prices right game to define a percentage of 0:40:39.920 --> 0:40:42.799 these NFL games, and Todd you are very good at 0:40:42.800 --> 0:40:45.759 pointing out it is a percentage. There is a percentage 0:40:45.760 --> 0:40:49.279 of games that you're not right. If you win, you're 0:40:49.320 --> 0:40:51.640 not wrong if you lose. And last week alone it 0:40:51.719 --> 0:40:58.279 was what Cleveland, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Detroit, What am I forgetting? Uh? Seattle? 0:40:58.280 --> 0:41:01.000 Who did Seattle play again? Seattle? And the areas, And 0:41:01.040 --> 0:41:03.400 there was a fourth game to which I'm which I'm losing. 0:41:03.400 --> 0:41:05.160 Off the top of my head, I'll check it right now. 0:41:05.440 --> 0:41:08.279 But those games were complete plinko. You were not right. 0:41:08.320 --> 0:41:10.640 If you wanted, you were not wrong if you didn't. 0:41:10.680 --> 0:41:13.040 I had it, and I had a few of those games. Um, 0:41:13.080 --> 0:41:15.880 I would even consider oh, New Orleans, Carolina being the 0:41:15.920 --> 0:41:18.600 fourth of those right. But then there is inevitably a 0:41:18.640 --> 0:41:21.279 percentage of games where it is not plinko right. If 0:41:21.320 --> 0:41:23.719 you had Washington last week, if you had San Francisco 0:41:23.840 --> 0:41:26.920 last week, those were clearly not that. So the extent 0:41:27.000 --> 0:41:30.080 to which, yeah, the extent to which we can figure 0:41:30.120 --> 0:41:33.120 out what those games are the better we will be 0:41:33.160 --> 0:41:36.080 as football betters. Now, of course that's easier said than done, right, 0:41:36.440 --> 0:41:38.440 but that's why. So that's why this is such a 0:41:38.440 --> 0:41:41.080 hard sport, because there is inevitably a huge percentage of 0:41:41.120 --> 0:41:44.400 games where it's just dude. You know people in contests 0:41:44.400 --> 0:41:46.520 who like go on these runs of like twenty three 0:41:46.520 --> 0:41:49.160 and two, they're getting the best to all of those. 0:41:49.480 --> 0:41:51.919 They're not avoiding all the plinko games, but they're getting 0:41:51.960 --> 0:41:56.439 them all to break their way. So index, you've got 0:41:56.440 --> 0:42:00.360 a very high PA. That's exactly what I felt. In 0:42:00.400 --> 0:42:03.960 college football, you have a lower plank Oization index. Therefore 0:42:04.000 --> 0:42:06.320 there's going to be more right sides in the NFL 0:42:06.400 --> 0:42:08.839 because everything is so tight. You've got a very low 0:42:08.920 --> 0:42:11.960 plank Oization index. You've got to be very careful. But 0:42:12.080 --> 0:42:13.560 um I I just want to know if you guys. 0:42:13.640 --> 0:42:15.960 I saw the replay of that where they had the 0:42:16.040 --> 0:42:18.239 Matt Ryan telling him to go down, and then they 0:42:18.280 --> 0:42:21.560 showed the play again and I noticed one of the 0:42:21.600 --> 0:42:24.480 guys knew not to tackle him. The other guy it 0:42:24.520 --> 0:42:27.319 looks like he he like really did sort of try 0:42:27.320 --> 0:42:30.960 to tackle him, and then and then Girlie like sluffed 0:42:31.000 --> 0:42:33.880 him off. And then you know, did the brain fart? 0:42:33.920 --> 0:42:38.520 But what was that Lions guy doing trying to tackle him? 0:42:38.960 --> 0:42:41.360 Or maybe Todd he was trying to pay him in 0:42:41.440 --> 0:42:44.320 the think he was tackling. You mean it was pure genius, Todd, 0:42:46.160 --> 0:42:50.800 go GALLAXI oka weak galaxy brain there, Todd Plaza index 0:42:50.880 --> 0:42:54.520 the pc I if drink, if you give me the drink, 0:42:54.560 --> 0:42:56.839 then it must be your drink in front of you 0:42:56.960 --> 0:42:59.560 is the one that I drink. But if you put 0:42:59.560 --> 0:43:02.359 the drink the other thing. But really, maybe you thought 0:43:02.400 --> 0:43:04.239 I thought that that's why you put the drink in 0:43:04.280 --> 0:43:07.839 the other drink. That is an excellent That is an 0:43:07.840 --> 0:43:11.520 excellent portrayal of the great scene from The Princess Bride. 0:43:11.760 --> 0:43:14.359 And then he croaks, Yeah, I didn't do it well 0:43:14.400 --> 0:43:18.440 at all. It's there. Oh, it's the greatest incompatable. I 0:43:18.480 --> 0:43:21.680 do not think you're using that word correctly. Uh. My 0:43:21.800 --> 0:43:24.439 last one is again it's another stinker. It's a third dog. 0:43:25.000 --> 0:43:28.640 I am taking the Denver broncos it's really uh, it's 0:43:28.680 --> 0:43:31.320 really just to play against the Chargers. Being a three 0:43:31.320 --> 0:43:36.600 point favorite here. Um Denver was terrible against the Chiefs. 0:43:36.680 --> 0:43:39.080 As we pointed out, Chiefs didn't even have to really 0:43:39.200 --> 0:43:42.120 exert themselves at all. They had a kickoff return excuse 0:43:42.160 --> 0:43:43.680 me that to pick six, they had a kickoff return 0:43:43.760 --> 0:43:46.400 for a touchdown. Yeah, two Denver turnovers led directly to scores, 0:43:46.640 --> 0:43:48.040 so they didn't have to break a sweat and beat 0:43:48.040 --> 0:43:49.960 in Denver. And by the way, I've said this before, 0:43:50.160 --> 0:43:52.480 no one loves Drew Lock more than Drew Lock. And 0:43:52.520 --> 0:43:54.239 when you know, when when Kansas City is up seven 0:43:54.280 --> 0:43:55.800 and nothing and they turned the ball over deep in 0:43:55.840 --> 0:43:58.120 their own territory and you're able to run in from 0:43:58.160 --> 0:44:00.400 a few yards out and make the score or seven 0:44:00.400 --> 0:44:02.800 to six before you miss an extra point, probably stop 0:44:02.840 --> 0:44:05.520 with the dancing right like, probably not the best move 0:44:05.600 --> 0:44:08.840 Drew Luck. All that said, he has a lock to 0:44:08.880 --> 0:44:10.520 be in it is. All that said. I'll take Denver 0:44:10.600 --> 0:44:14.160 plus three because I just don't trust the Chargers in 0:44:14.200 --> 0:44:16.799 any way, and I think they will Anthony Lynn their 0:44:16.840 --> 0:44:21.120 way to defeat in this game. In a week of 0:44:21.120 --> 0:44:22.799 the NFL, I mean, the biggest theme in in week 0:44:22.960 --> 0:44:25.080 we probably buried the headline. There's gonna be a lot 0:44:25.120 --> 0:44:27.440 of weather around the country, a lot of inclement weather. 0:44:27.840 --> 0:44:30.840 You've got to make sure that it's wind though. You 0:44:30.920 --> 0:44:33.080 gotta make sure it's the type of of inclement weather 0:44:33.120 --> 0:44:35.560 that matters. So you see a lot of these totals 0:44:35.600 --> 0:44:39.319 crashing and multiple games this week, and be aware of 0:44:39.360 --> 0:44:42.279 the fact that with them going down, they might just 0:44:42.440 --> 0:44:45.200 be precursors to the same better as taking the over 0:44:45.320 --> 0:44:47.240 later in the week when the rest of the public 0:44:47.280 --> 0:44:50.840 catches on. So don't don't necessarily think that it's a 0:44:51.600 --> 0:44:53.600 but one move and done kind of thing. But I'll 0:44:53.600 --> 0:44:55.600 take the Broncos here for no other reason than I 0:44:55.640 --> 0:44:58.360 don't trust the Chargers on the road in Denver in 0:44:58.480 --> 0:45:02.040 late October, and I don't think the Broncos should be 0:45:02.120 --> 0:45:04.160 a three point dog at home. And I know home 0:45:04.239 --> 0:45:06.319 is in quotes this year against the Charges, I can't 0:45:06.320 --> 0:45:09.320 be more impressed with Justin Herbert. But the Chargers managed 0:45:09.360 --> 0:45:11.800 to lose games like this. And you know, speaking of 0:45:11.840 --> 0:45:14.640 Philip Rivers, Todd, that was the famous game, Jeff, I 0:45:14.640 --> 0:45:16.640 can think you were with us for this one too, 0:45:17.040 --> 0:45:19.399 that game against Denver at Denver with Philip Rivers where 0:45:19.400 --> 0:45:21.200 he just threw the ball into the dirt on third 0:45:21.239 --> 0:45:24.880 down and Chargers manager, Yeah, figured out a way to 0:45:24.920 --> 0:45:27.520 lose that game. Denver plus three for me my third 0:45:27.520 --> 0:45:30.240 pick by the way, it should have never even gotten 0:45:30.239 --> 0:45:32.200 to that. If you remember that game, it was twenty 0:45:32.440 --> 0:45:34.319 six and the third quarter in Philip rivers through an 0:45:34.320 --> 0:45:39.000 interception to I, he makes me so angry. And and 0:45:39.000 --> 0:45:42.560 and last week the Chargers come from ahead, come from 0:45:42.600 --> 0:45:46.640 behind win against the Jaguars, who are terrible by Gardner Minshew. 0:45:46.680 --> 0:45:48.960 I don't know if you saw this news. Gardner Minshew 0:45:49.560 --> 0:45:53.440 admitted just today, I believe it's just today this morning, 0:45:53.760 --> 0:45:57.239 that he has multiple fractures in his throwing hand. The 0:45:57.320 --> 0:46:00.640 Jaguars had no idea about this and his status for 0:46:00.880 --> 0:46:03.360 next week. Because the Jaguars don't play this week, his 0:46:03.440 --> 0:46:06.000 status for next week is very much in doubt. So 0:46:06.320 --> 0:46:09.200 they did that. The Chargers did against a Gardner Minshew 0:46:09.239 --> 0:46:14.240 impaired Jaguars team almost lost big turnover for the Jaguars 0:46:14.320 --> 0:46:16.279 late in the third quarter that turned that game and 0:46:16.320 --> 0:46:18.560 made it a non sweat in the end for Chargers 0:46:18.840 --> 0:46:21.960 survivor pickers. Anyway, All right, uh so we are at 0:46:22.000 --> 0:46:24.040 the Todd Did you have anything on Thursday night tonight 0:46:24.200 --> 0:46:28.360 or no? I mean, Eileen heavily to Carolina. I agree 0:46:28.360 --> 0:46:31.000 with Jeffrey. First of all, Carolina beat the pants out 0:46:31.000 --> 0:46:32.520 of it Land in the last game. I had the 0:46:32.560 --> 0:46:35.680 over in that game and lost because Carolina's defense really 0:46:35.680 --> 0:46:39.359 stifled Atlanta. I don't think Julio Jones played in that game. 0:46:39.400 --> 0:46:41.439 I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure he did 0:46:41.480 --> 0:46:43.840 not play in that game, so that that is a difference. 0:46:44.280 --> 0:46:46.200 The thing is, the Falcons are also a little bit 0:46:46.239 --> 0:46:48.680 like the the Saints. I don't know if you guys 0:46:48.800 --> 0:46:51.840 I mean noticed this, but they don't seem to play 0:46:51.880 --> 0:46:54.880 as fast and as well on the on grass. I 0:46:54.880 --> 0:46:57.160 don't I don't know if the numbers would bear that out, 0:46:57.200 --> 0:46:59.759 but it just seems to me that that whenever they 0:46:59.800 --> 0:47:03.719 get on grass, they're just not the same offensive firepower. 0:47:03.840 --> 0:47:06.360 So I kind of like Carolina with Jeff as a 0:47:06.400 --> 0:47:09.600 bonus pick. Okay uh And then comes to our teaser 0:47:09.680 --> 0:47:11.839 of the week again, as Todd said, we're all six 0:47:11.880 --> 0:47:15.520 and one, me and Mikey. What was Mikey's teaser. Mikey's 0:47:15.560 --> 0:47:21.279 teaser last week was Detroit Lions. This week? Oh this week? Yeah, 0:47:21.400 --> 0:47:24.960 this week, Mikey's teaser was the Green Bay Packers minus 0:47:25.040 --> 0:47:28.360 one with the Miami Dolphins plus nine and a half 0:47:28.440 --> 0:47:33.040 and to a interesting interesting All right, Jeff, we have 0:47:33.160 --> 0:47:35.200 done very well on these this year, what is your 0:47:35.440 --> 0:47:39.120 two leg at six point teaser of the week. So 0:47:39.400 --> 0:47:41.960 I'm with Mike on his first leg. I don't see 0:47:41.960 --> 0:47:45.560 a universe where green Bay doesen't doesn't beat Minnesota by 0:47:45.640 --> 0:47:47.600 more than a field goal. I mean, they're gonna beat 0:47:47.680 --> 0:47:49.520 him by at least the field goals. So I'll go 0:47:49.920 --> 0:47:52.600 green Bay. I guess we're going with minus one on that, guys, 0:47:52.680 --> 0:47:55.839 I guess, uh down from seven, uh, even though there's 0:47:55.840 --> 0:47:57.759 a good good amount of six and a half out there. 0:47:57.800 --> 0:47:59.719 So if you can get that, obviously get it down 0:47:59.800 --> 0:48:03.239 today half um, and then I'm I'm I'm thinking the 0:48:03.280 --> 0:48:05.839 same way gill is on Denver and the Chargers. I'll 0:48:05.880 --> 0:48:09.040 push Denver up through the six and the seven and 0:48:09.040 --> 0:48:12.520 the three up the nine very happily that that is 0:48:12.600 --> 0:48:14.759 one score game written all over it. So I'll go 0:48:15.239 --> 0:48:19.799 green Bay minus one. Denver plus nine will be my teaser. Yeah. 0:48:19.800 --> 0:48:25.200 The only pure Stanford loong teaser legs this week are Atlanta, 0:48:25.520 --> 0:48:27.640 which I get on playing the Atlanta Falcons and the 0:48:27.719 --> 0:48:29.960 over Intact in tonight's game, But that's not my teaser 0:48:30.000 --> 0:48:31.799 of the week. Uh. And then the only other one 0:48:31.800 --> 0:48:34.760 I guess is the Raiders. Am I missing anything? Guys? 0:48:36.200 --> 0:48:40.920 That sounds correct, Todd, What do you like? I like 0:48:41.320 --> 0:48:47.719 the um I like the Denver Broncos for similar reasons 0:48:48.560 --> 0:48:51.399 that you said. I just don't see the Chargers, even 0:48:51.440 --> 0:48:53.400 if they can beat the Broncos. I don't see them 0:48:53.440 --> 0:48:56.359 blowing out the Broncos, especially after the Broncos had such 0:48:56.400 --> 0:48:59.120 a poor week last week against Kansas City. They're gonna 0:48:59.120 --> 0:49:01.680 be loaded up for air this week against the team. Look, 0:49:01.760 --> 0:49:04.520 let's be honest. The Chargers are just an average, mediocre 0:49:04.560 --> 0:49:06.839 football team. Sometimes they're gonna look good, sometimes they're gonna 0:49:06.880 --> 0:49:09.320 look bad. I don't think they can beat the Broncos 0:49:09.360 --> 0:49:12.440 by more than nine. So give me the Broncos plus 0:49:12.480 --> 0:49:15.360 the nine. And then also give me another team plus 0:49:15.400 --> 0:49:18.719 the nine, and that is the uh what was the 0:49:18.760 --> 0:49:22.120 other one? Oh, San Francisco forty Niners. Give me the 0:49:22.160 --> 0:49:26.400 San Francisco forty Niners plus the nine. Look, Seattle is good, 0:49:26.760 --> 0:49:30.279 but they don't have any defense, so it's very hard 0:49:30.360 --> 0:49:33.400 to win by margin if you don't have any defense. 0:49:33.680 --> 0:49:36.080 I don't see San Francisco getting spanked in this game. 0:49:36.120 --> 0:49:38.080 I think it's gonna be a tight game. Give me 0:49:38.120 --> 0:49:40.680 the Niners plus the nine and Denver plus the nine. 0:49:40.719 --> 0:49:43.520 I kind of like that San Francisco Lake Um, by 0:49:43.560 --> 0:49:46.160 the way, says you bring bring up the Chargers Broncos 0:49:46.200 --> 0:49:48.760 again with the other prop that we looked at this morning. 0:49:48.800 --> 0:49:50.840 And I'll usually do props on my show because I 0:49:50.840 --> 0:49:53.640 think it's kind of it's kind of nonsense radio because 0:49:53.680 --> 0:49:56.040 most people don't bet them. But these are all kind 0:49:56.040 --> 0:49:58.200 of cool. This year in the NFL, these season long 0:49:58.280 --> 0:50:00.839 ones with the Jets and the NFC East total, there 0:50:00.880 --> 0:50:03.800 was another one that was, uh, well, all four teams 0:50:03.880 --> 0:50:07.000 from you know, make it from a division into the playoffs. 0:50:07.320 --> 0:50:09.680 And they're clearly talking about the NFC West, which has 0:50:09.680 --> 0:50:11.960 the Niners at four and three in last place, and 0:50:12.040 --> 0:50:13.560 just like we were talking about with the NFC East, 0:50:13.560 --> 0:50:15.880 where there's built in wins against each other, in the 0:50:16.000 --> 0:50:18.759 NFC West there's built in losses because they play each other. 0:50:19.400 --> 0:50:21.839 But really, if you look at the NFC, what are 0:50:21.880 --> 0:50:24.000 the only two like, what are the teams that could 0:50:24.080 --> 0:50:27.640 torpedo that from happening? Because it seems unlikely, but then 0:50:27.680 --> 0:50:30.400 you think, well who could who could ruin this? I 0:50:30.440 --> 0:50:32.640 guess New Orleans would be the number one candidate because 0:50:32.640 --> 0:50:35.160 New Orleans and Tampa whoever wins that division where it 0:50:35.160 --> 0:50:38.400 doesn't win that division, could could mess that up. Chicago 0:50:38.520 --> 0:50:40.400 is the only other one. I don't believe in Chicago, 0:50:40.920 --> 0:50:43.800 you know. So it's interesting. It was plus three fifty, 0:50:43.840 --> 0:50:45.879 by the way, which wasn't nearly enough bang for your 0:50:45.880 --> 0:50:47.840 buck to get all four of those teams. But the 0:50:47.840 --> 0:50:52.000 other one basically betting Arizona versus Chicago versus New Orleans. Yeah, 0:50:52.080 --> 0:50:56.680 Oro or San Francisco. I think San Francisco is going 0:50:56.719 --> 0:51:00.160 to be better than gil Gil. One thing actually that 0:51:00.320 --> 0:51:03.359 up there, San Francisco goes to New Orleans later this year. 0:51:03.440 --> 0:51:07.319 That could go a long way towards deciding that prop that. Yeah, 0:51:07.320 --> 0:51:09.479 and New Orleans plays Chicago this week, right, so there's 0:51:09.480 --> 0:51:11.560 one more loss for one of those teams. What what 0:51:11.640 --> 0:51:13.600 I was really getting at, though, was one that I 0:51:13.640 --> 0:51:16.760 couldn't decide on a bet, which was the next coach 0:51:16.800 --> 0:51:19.840 to be fired. So we've already had Bill O'Brien fired 0:51:20.320 --> 0:51:22.680 as both the coach and the GM of the Houston Texans, 0:51:22.719 --> 0:51:26.399 and then Dan Quinn got fired from Atlanta. You could 0:51:26.480 --> 0:51:28.000 argue that both of those guys should have been fired 0:51:28.000 --> 0:51:30.479 a long time ago. But then so the new one 0:51:30.560 --> 0:51:33.800 is Adam Gaze is the short shot at plus one hundred, 0:51:33.840 --> 0:51:36.320 and my opinion was, well, they would have fired him already. 0:51:36.360 --> 0:51:38.200 They're not gonna fire him. Uh. And then there was 0:51:38.239 --> 0:51:41.120 all kinds of other people on that list. Mike McCarthy 0:51:41.160 --> 0:51:43.279 was sixteen and one, but I'm but over twenty one. 0:51:43.320 --> 0:51:45.080 I was like, well, yeah, but Dad got hurt, so 0:51:45.160 --> 0:51:47.040 I'm not sure if Jerry would do that to him. 0:51:47.440 --> 0:51:50.280 Anthony Lynn is sixteen to one. From a football perspective, 0:51:50.320 --> 0:51:52.520 you would think Anthony Lynn would be the choice, but 0:51:53.120 --> 0:51:55.719 he's teflon, like, they just don't fire him. He's too 0:51:55.760 --> 0:51:58.400 nice of a guy, apparently, So I didn't really know. 0:51:58.520 --> 0:52:01.760 Was it Doug Morone and Jack Xonville? Was it someone 0:52:01.800 --> 0:52:04.880 like Zimmer in Minnesota who were not thinking about But 0:52:04.920 --> 0:52:06.800 I didn't like any of them. I was like, I 0:52:06.840 --> 0:52:09.360 wouldn't bet this at all. I'm not sure if you 0:52:09.400 --> 0:52:13.520 got someone. Maron's the only name that would make sense. 0:52:13.560 --> 0:52:15.720 But they're on the by this week, and they probably 0:52:15.760 --> 0:52:18.480 would have already done it, and they're in a scenario too, 0:52:18.600 --> 0:52:21.480 and look they lose out. They have a real shot 0:52:21.480 --> 0:52:23.880 at the number one pick if the Jets win a game, 0:52:24.120 --> 0:52:27.560 Jacksonville loses out. Jacksonville is getting the first pick because 0:52:27.640 --> 0:52:30.160 their schedule will have been easier than the jet schedule, 0:52:30.320 --> 0:52:33.160 So uh, Maron would be the only guy I'd look at. 0:52:33.200 --> 0:52:35.720 I have a hard time seeing Minnesota fire firing Zimmer 0:52:35.760 --> 0:52:37.160 in the middle of the season. Gil. I just I 0:52:37.200 --> 0:52:39.560 just have a hard time seeing that, even though that, 0:52:39.640 --> 0:52:42.640 to me is a logical pick. Without that, seasons just 0:52:42.719 --> 0:52:44.839 completely fallen. Apart for that, I have a hard time 0:52:44.920 --> 0:52:47.160 seeing anybody fire anyone at this point, for it doesn't 0:52:47.160 --> 0:52:49.200 make any sense does. By the way, Bill Belichick was 0:52:49.239 --> 0:52:51.800 included at five one, I was like, that's I don't know, 0:52:52.400 --> 0:52:55.320 that's not enough. It would need to be five jillions, 0:52:55.400 --> 0:52:59.279 five five trillion at least taught any any choice. There 0:52:59.280 --> 0:53:01.440 By the way, Zach Tylor was not on that list 0:53:01.880 --> 0:53:07.800 at all. He wasn't even listed. Um, I can't really 0:53:08.160 --> 0:53:11.040 think of anybody that you know, I don't know. I 0:53:11.120 --> 0:53:15.520 just anyway, here's my two team six point teaser. I'm 0:53:15.520 --> 0:53:17.920 gonna take the Pittsburgh Steelers, which is consistent with my 0:53:18.200 --> 0:53:21.440 first best bet, taking Pittsburgh on the against spread at 0:53:21.480 --> 0:53:23.160 three and a half plus three and a half. I'm 0:53:23.160 --> 0:53:25.840 also gonna take yeah, I'm also gonna take Pittsburgh in 0:53:25.880 --> 0:53:27.279 addition to the plus three and a half is one 0:53:27.320 --> 0:53:29.360 of my best bets, plus nine and a half on 0:53:29.440 --> 0:53:32.360 a teaser. Again, I am concerned about the fact that 0:53:32.400 --> 0:53:35.480 the game script of this is going to be very 0:53:36.120 --> 0:53:38.879 very uh sort of a portent of things to come. 0:53:38.920 --> 0:53:41.920 If Baltimore goes out early, this could go bad. But 0:53:41.960 --> 0:53:44.600 if Pittsburgh goes out early, I'm gonna be very comfortable 0:53:44.680 --> 0:53:46.520 with both of these. So Pittsburgh plus nine and a 0:53:46.560 --> 0:53:49.759 half and I'm gonna tease Tennessee down to basically just 0:53:49.800 --> 0:53:54.479 having to win again with with very few Stanford Wong 0:53:55.160 --> 0:53:58.239 pure teaser legs available, I'll take Tennessee down. It's five 0:53:58.280 --> 0:53:59.880 and a half now, so I'm actually taking it, you know, 0:54:00.040 --> 0:54:01.960 two plus a half. I get it. I know you're 0:54:01.960 --> 0:54:07.319 not supposed to do that, but basically, I'm just having 0:54:07.360 --> 0:54:10.279 Tennessee win that football game against Cincinnati. And I'm I'm 0:54:10.280 --> 0:54:12.040 all about Joe Burrow and I'm all about the back 0:54:12.080 --> 0:54:14.640 door covers of the Cincinnati Bengals. And what's the stat 0:54:14.719 --> 0:54:17.560 Four of their five losses have been by five points 0:54:17.640 --> 0:54:20.879 or fewer. Yes, four of their five losses by five 0:54:20.920 --> 0:54:23.919 points or fewer, but Cincinnati's three nineteen and one under 0:54:24.000 --> 0:54:26.440 Zach Taylor. I think it's three twenty in one. So 0:54:26.520 --> 0:54:31.439 for me, it's Pittsburgh and Tennessee as my two leg 0:54:32.120 --> 0:54:35.759 six point teaser, all right, So that for the survivors, Gil, 0:54:35.840 --> 0:54:38.080 you still have your second entry going. You want me 0:54:38.120 --> 0:54:40.719 to tell you who you've taken so far? Please tell 0:54:40.760 --> 0:54:43.080 the world who I've taken so far? Okay, so far 0:54:43.280 --> 0:54:48.680 used the Tennessee Titans, the Cleveland Brianies, the New England Patriots, 0:54:49.120 --> 0:54:55.400 the Tampa Baby Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals, and the Miami Dolphins. 0:54:55.560 --> 0:54:58.000 And last week you use Buffalo. So who's it going 0:54:58.040 --> 0:55:02.600 to be? Now? Well, comes down to for me, Uh, 0:55:02.719 --> 0:55:05.160 do I use the Kansas City Chiefs in what amounts 0:55:05.200 --> 0:55:08.360 to a Bingoes free Bingo square against the New York Jets? 0:55:08.800 --> 0:55:11.839 Or am I strategizing and keeping Kansas City for later 0:55:12.360 --> 0:55:14.480 and I gotta keep them later? Now? The answer for 0:55:14.520 --> 0:55:17.040 me is the former. I'm playing the Chiefs. I'm using 0:55:17.080 --> 0:55:20.360 the Chiefs in week number eight. Um, I did not 0:55:20.600 --> 0:55:23.400 script out Survivor in the year of COVID. I think 0:55:23.440 --> 0:55:25.120 it's kind of a fool's errand to do that. This 0:55:25.160 --> 0:55:27.719 year because you just you worry about postponed games and 0:55:27.719 --> 0:55:29.040 that kind of thing. And again, if the game is 0:55:29.080 --> 0:55:34.000 postponed beyond Tuesday at midnight, your scrid in Survivor. But 0:55:34.520 --> 0:55:37.440 I am not. But but I did. Finally, after week six, 0:55:37.800 --> 0:55:39.799 I finally said, all right, let me see we map 0:55:39.920 --> 0:55:44.399 this out. And so I am going to take as 0:55:44.440 --> 0:55:47.040 accordingly according to that grid that I've made, that map 0:55:47.080 --> 0:55:49.080 that I've made for myself. I'm gonna take Kansas City 0:55:49.080 --> 0:55:52.360 here against the Jets, the the fade, the Jets strategy. 0:55:52.480 --> 0:55:54.920 As I've said, there are many worst strategies and Survivor 0:55:54.960 --> 0:55:57.480 than that. It's Kansas City at home against the Jets, 0:55:57.520 --> 0:55:59.640 the nineteen and a half point favorites. I'm not gonna 0:55:59.680 --> 0:56:02.359 think of out of this week Chiefs because I don't. 0:56:02.440 --> 0:56:05.160 By the way, that was really interesting what you said 0:56:05.160 --> 0:56:07.799 about the Thanksgiving there's only six teams. There's gonna be 0:56:07.800 --> 0:56:10.160 people that have already used up all six of those teams. Well, 0:56:10.200 --> 0:56:12.360 that's part of circus thing. By the way, if you 0:56:12.360 --> 0:56:13.759 look at the Chiefs, just finishing the thought, if you 0:56:13.760 --> 0:56:18.000 look at the Chiefs schedule, there isn't really a completely 0:56:18.080 --> 0:56:20.719 obvious spot to play them again. Some might argue with that, 0:56:21.239 --> 0:56:23.399 and do you really think they're gonna go fifteen and one. 0:56:23.520 --> 0:56:25.440 I mean, they're gonna lose at some other point. So 0:56:25.480 --> 0:56:28.160 I'll take the Chiefs here. That, yeah, the Thanksgiving thing 0:56:28.880 --> 0:56:31.080 because of the presence of a team like the Jets, 0:56:31.600 --> 0:56:35.080 because Circa couldn't have anticipated to teams so epically bad 0:56:35.200 --> 0:56:41.880 sorry Jeff, so bad that people would still be around 0:56:42.120 --> 0:56:46.080 right now. And it's really not eroding quickly at all. 0:56:46.800 --> 0:56:49.080 So they've got to be thrilled that they have that 0:56:49.160 --> 0:56:52.480 Thanksgiving rule, which is instead of a seventeen week survivor, 0:56:52.560 --> 0:56:55.200 it essentially becomes an eighteen week with this mini week 0:56:55.280 --> 0:57:00.400 of Thanksgiving, and the three games are really difficult unless 0:57:00.440 --> 0:57:04.399 there's a major injury to someone very important in one 0:57:04.400 --> 0:57:07.719 of these three games. There is no obvious choice. It's 0:57:07.840 --> 0:57:12.560 Baltimore Pittsburgh the rematch, It's Dallas Washington the rematch, and 0:57:12.600 --> 0:57:15.200 it's get ready for this the first game that day, 0:57:15.480 --> 0:57:20.120 Houston Detroit. So it's so thanks as you can plan 0:57:20.320 --> 0:57:23.240 everything to get to Thanksgiving, and you can sort of 0:57:23.240 --> 0:57:26.480 plan everything until the last week. Week seventeen is always scorely, 0:57:27.080 --> 0:57:30.919 but like Thanksgiving is just a prayer and you have well, 0:57:31.040 --> 0:57:36.040 will you would you? Absolutely? I think they stink. I 0:57:36.080 --> 0:57:39.560 mean I wouldn't say it that quickly, Gail. If we 0:57:39.560 --> 0:57:41.760 were picking that today, if you made me take the 0:57:41.840 --> 0:57:45.280 pick today, I would take Detroit. I would not be 0:57:45.400 --> 0:57:48.440 watching that game to basically that that that's what I 0:57:48.440 --> 0:57:51.800 would do, just because. And this was when remember when 0:57:51.840 --> 0:57:54.440 when the when the schedule was released, we all looked 0:57:54.480 --> 0:57:57.760 at this for this reason, with the with the survivor 0:57:57.760 --> 0:58:00.919 pool a circuit usually Thanksgiving, Gil and we all said, 0:58:00.960 --> 0:58:03.640 all right, we're gonna save the Dallas Cowboys for Thanksgiving 0:58:03.640 --> 0:58:06.720 as Washington football team. And now the Cowboys are one 0:58:06.720 --> 0:58:09.160 of the five worst teams in football, so it completely 0:58:09.480 --> 0:58:11.680 again that that day is gonna be h It's gonna 0:58:11.720 --> 0:58:14.000 be a bloody Thanksgiving for folks that are left in 0:58:14.360 --> 0:58:16.240 the pool. But but we you know, that's the thing, 0:58:16.320 --> 0:58:18.640 for all these survivor players, including myself, who are still alive, 0:58:18.920 --> 0:58:22.720 you almost have to be okay with losing then, right 0:58:22.840 --> 0:58:24.800 like it's like, well, we knew this was coming. This 0:58:24.880 --> 0:58:27.240 was the day where it's sort of just coin flippy. 0:58:27.280 --> 0:58:30.400 But I think you're right now as we stand, Jeff, 0:58:30.440 --> 0:58:32.760 that's kind of what I'm thinking about too, it's like 0:58:32.800 --> 0:58:37.240 Detroit at home short week. Maybe that's the way to 0:58:37.320 --> 0:58:40.040 play it, but that could change, right if uh, you know, 0:58:40.120 --> 0:58:44.320 God gets hurt, Lamar Jackson, Lamar Jackson gets hurt or 0:58:44.360 --> 0:58:45.880 Big Ben gets hurt. I mean, there's so many things 0:58:45.920 --> 0:58:48.360 that can happen between now and then. But imagine if 0:58:48.400 --> 0:58:51.560 Circuit didn't have the Thanksgiving rule. There would be like 0:58:51.600 --> 0:58:53.840 a hundred people get to the finish line I think 0:58:53.840 --> 0:58:56.480 in this season and they never know if another big 0:58:56.560 --> 0:59:00.200 upset is coming that could wipe out Jets would one 0:59:00.240 --> 0:59:04.200 game and half absolutely, But that's the thing. It's like 0:59:05.640 --> 0:59:09.920 there's no sure things, so fading the Jets look at 0:59:10.000 --> 0:59:14.040 some point they might win. Maybe backing the Chiefs like 0:59:14.080 --> 0:59:17.080 saving the Chiefs for another time. I don't know. I 0:59:17.120 --> 0:59:20.520 don't know, Like they've lost already, right, So as if 0:59:20.520 --> 0:59:22.200 you have a free Bingo square, at least for me, 0:59:22.240 --> 0:59:24.000 I'm using the Chiefs this week. I have them. I'm 0:59:24.040 --> 0:59:26.880 using them, um. But obviously there's other choices. If you 0:59:26.880 --> 0:59:28.680 have Tampa Bay, a lot of people are gonna pick 0:59:28.720 --> 0:59:31.680 Tampa Bay. But with the Giants outbreak, now will they 0:59:31.680 --> 0:59:34.040 really pick Tampa Bay because you might lose all together? 0:59:34.520 --> 0:59:36.400 Right if the game gets postponed because of the COVID 0:59:36.400 --> 0:59:38.600 outbreak on the Giants, so Tampa Bay looked pretty obvious. 0:59:38.640 --> 0:59:40.440 I'm not sure you can play that anymore. Will you 0:59:40.520 --> 0:59:44.760 take Philly against Dallas? Philly was another consideration you would, Todd. 0:59:44.880 --> 0:59:47.640 I'm not so sure I would. I don't trust. I 0:59:47.720 --> 0:59:51.439 can't stand Dallas. I think they're horrendous and now they're 0:59:51.440 --> 0:59:53.960 going to be even worse. But I don't Philadelphia apparently 0:59:54.000 --> 0:59:58.720 beat the Giants shouldn't have beaten the Giants. This is why, well, 0:59:58.760 --> 1:00:01.040 actually we'll get to it in old bit on on 1:00:01.040 --> 1:00:04.840 one of your last questions, Gil, but Philadelphia should not 1:00:04.920 --> 1:00:08.040 be almost a ten point favorite against anyone at this 1:00:08.080 --> 1:00:10.880 point and they and they proved that on Thursday night, 1:00:10.920 --> 1:00:13.080 where they needed a lot of luck to be the 1:00:13.120 --> 1:00:16.320 Giant team that I mean, the Giants think there if 1:00:16.400 --> 1:00:18.480 it wasn't for the Jets, the Giants who probably be 1:00:18.520 --> 1:00:20.840 the worst team in the NFL. Right, that's right, with 1:00:20.880 --> 1:00:23.760 apologies to the Cowboys, that's right. And if they were 1:00:23.800 --> 1:00:26.760 playing an NFL team, I would agree. Unfortunately, they're playing 1:00:27.360 --> 1:00:30.200 Austin this week with quarterback Ben d Nucci. All I'm 1:00:30.200 --> 1:00:32.680 just saying is all I'm saying is Philadelphia. I don't 1:00:32.680 --> 1:00:34.880 really trust them against Dallas quite frankly. And you know 1:00:34.920 --> 1:00:39.040 what else, I don't trust green Bay hosting Minnesota. It 1:00:39.120 --> 1:00:42.520 would not shock me if Minnesota just has this random 1:00:42.640 --> 1:00:45.480 game where they beat the you know where they beat 1:00:45.520 --> 1:00:47.840 the pants off the green Bay defense and score a 1:00:47.880 --> 1:00:50.600 lot of points. I don't know. Those are division games 1:00:50.640 --> 1:00:53.120 that scare me. They might all listen. I say this 1:00:53.200 --> 1:00:55.440 every week. These games scare me. But like every one 1:00:55.480 --> 1:00:57.640 of these seems to come home like there are no 1:00:58.120 --> 1:01:00.919 massive upsets. And so Survivor has three hundred fifty people 1:01:01.000 --> 1:01:08.040 left with with eleven weeks of circle left through seven, 1:01:08.280 --> 1:01:11.120 and that's special Thanksgiving quirk. Yes, sir, you know one 1:01:11.120 --> 1:01:12.640 other good one that I think And I'm not a 1:01:12.680 --> 1:01:15.800 huge fan of picking road teams in the Survivor pool, 1:01:16.280 --> 1:01:19.880 but Tennessee against Cincinnati feels pretty good and pretty safe. Also, 1:01:20.080 --> 1:01:24.480 just because Cincinnati's defense is horrible and that run defense 1:01:24.560 --> 1:01:27.080 is especially horrible. That could be a day where Derrick 1:01:27.120 --> 1:01:29.800 Henry just goes absolutely nuclear 'ar in Tennessee wins a 1:01:29.840 --> 1:01:34.600 game and you're not sweating too much. Well, so this 1:01:34.680 --> 1:01:37.040 segway is perfectly that we're kind of already answering this 1:01:37.400 --> 1:01:40.600 the big favorite most likely to lose out right one 1:01:40.640 --> 1:01:42.920 of our final two questions, because it really does just 1:01:43.040 --> 1:01:46.560 come down to the Chiefs nineteen and a half point 1:01:46.560 --> 1:01:50.800 favorites against the Jets. We already mentioned the Eagles nine 1:01:50.920 --> 1:01:53.760 or eight and a half point favorites against Dallas, Green 1:01:53.880 --> 1:01:57.680 Bay seven point favorites against Minnesota, and Tampa Bay twelve 1:01:57.720 --> 1:02:00.440 point favorites at the Giants, and it's like, who of 1:02:00.520 --> 1:02:03.560 those is the most likely to lose out right? Jeff, 1:02:03.640 --> 1:02:07.840 your thought again would be who I by default, I 1:02:07.920 --> 1:02:10.000 have to take Philadelphia, even though I don't think they're 1:02:10.000 --> 1:02:13.080 gonna lose. It. Just just a bed again. The Cowboys 1:02:13.120 --> 1:02:16.080 are all world bad right now. Benda Nucci is a 1:02:16.120 --> 1:02:19.320 fit string NFL quarterback on on normal on a regular 1:02:19.360 --> 1:02:21.120 team that is in the Jets of the Cowboys at 1:02:21.120 --> 1:02:24.360 this point. But the Eagles are bad. The Eagles are 1:02:24.440 --> 1:02:27.400 legitimately bad, and they still might win the NFC East anyway, 1:02:27.440 --> 1:02:31.320 but uh, it's well in the realm of possibility that 1:02:31.320 --> 1:02:34.240 wins gets the interception bug and all of a sudden 1:02:34.240 --> 1:02:36.240 you've got a problem there. So that's the only reason 1:02:36.280 --> 1:02:38.280 I don't think they're gonna lose. I think Philly is 1:02:38.320 --> 1:02:41.000 more likely to cover than lose. But of all those 1:02:41.040 --> 1:02:43.480 other teams, no one else is gonna come close to losing. 1:02:43.480 --> 1:02:45.720 I mean, Tampa is going to destroy the Giants. I 1:02:45.760 --> 1:02:47.880 took Kansas City as one of the picks, and I 1:02:47.920 --> 1:02:50.960 love Tennessee this week too. So by the fault, that's Philip, 1:02:51.040 --> 1:02:52.680 and Tennessee is not even part of this because it 1:02:52.800 --> 1:02:54.920 fell to five and a half. So five and a half, yeah, 1:02:54.920 --> 1:02:56.520 and I like green Bay to gil I don't. I 1:02:56.520 --> 1:02:57.960 don't agree with you on that. I think I think 1:02:57.960 --> 1:03:01.200 Minnesota can't give up mode. Well, so Tampa Bay in 1:03:01.280 --> 1:03:04.360 Kansas City are not losing. So it really is a 1:03:04.400 --> 1:03:07.600 binary choice, right, it's a choice between It's a choice 1:03:07.600 --> 1:03:12.360 between Green Bay and UM and of course Phildelphia. I 1:03:12.400 --> 1:03:14.520 mean that it really is, Todd. You're gonna say, then 1:03:14.600 --> 1:03:17.880 it's green Bay, right, Yeah, I could totally see. Look, 1:03:17.880 --> 1:03:20.800 I mean, Minnesota played good against Seattle. They're not that 1:03:20.840 --> 1:03:23.320 bad a team. They could have a great game. Hearon Rodgers, 1:03:23.680 --> 1:03:25.360 you know, has a screw up game, and you know 1:03:25.400 --> 1:03:27.880 it could happen, all right, I would say green Bay, 1:03:27.920 --> 1:03:29.320 just I don't know if I would say green Bay. 1:03:29.360 --> 1:03:31.520 When I say Green Bay or Philly, you know what 1:03:31.560 --> 1:03:34.960 I'm gonna say, Philly. Philly by default don't see it happening, 1:03:35.000 --> 1:03:37.560 but they would be my choice. And then the final 1:03:37.680 --> 1:03:40.600 question if we live in a bizarro world and right 1:03:40.680 --> 1:03:43.840 now we don't have any postponements right now, but again, 1:03:43.880 --> 1:03:46.400 Giants with a little bit of a breakout. But we 1:03:46.440 --> 1:03:49.600 have fourteen games in the NFL, four teams on by 1:03:49.840 --> 1:03:54.800 UH and those four teams on by are Jacksonville, Arizona, Houston, 1:03:54.880 --> 1:03:59.120 and Washington. But of the remaining games, fourteen of them 1:03:59.280 --> 1:04:01.040 we get to is that we have to choose a 1:04:01.080 --> 1:04:04.160 side and every single one of them except one. It's 1:04:04.160 --> 1:04:07.040 a bizarro world where you're forced to make bets one 1:04:07.080 --> 1:04:08.960 game where you get a free pass. Jeffrey, what is 1:04:08.960 --> 1:04:11.560 the game on the side you want no part of? Yeah, 1:04:11.600 --> 1:04:14.240 I want nothing to do in Las Vegas and Cleveland, no, 1:04:14.360 --> 1:04:17.720 thank you. I have no feel for what Cleveland is 1:04:17.760 --> 1:04:20.560 now going to be. With Odell Beckham out, this Baker 1:04:20.600 --> 1:04:24.000 Mayfield actually get better or does that offense regress like 1:04:24.040 --> 1:04:26.840 it would normally would with an elite talent being out 1:04:26.920 --> 1:04:30.160 and the Raiders going to the Eastern time zone and 1:04:30.280 --> 1:04:33.360 a local one o'clock game ten am for the body clocks, 1:04:33.400 --> 1:04:35.400 even though it's a little different this week because of 1:04:35.520 --> 1:04:38.760 daylight savings, so really be eleven am for their body clocks. 1:04:39.640 --> 1:04:42.040 I still don't have a feel at all for these 1:04:42.080 --> 1:04:45.640 teams anyway, with all those factors put in. So no, 1:04:45.800 --> 1:04:48.120 thank you for Las Vegas and Cleveland. That's as good 1:04:48.120 --> 1:04:53.000 a choice as any man. Todd, what was Mike's again, 1:04:54.160 --> 1:04:57.280 Indianapolis Detroit. I believe it was. Yeah, that's what he Yeah, 1:04:57.280 --> 1:05:00.320 he wanted no part of Indianapolis Detroit, Todd, what's yours? 1:05:00.960 --> 1:05:03.240 I want to know part of the Rams Miami because 1:05:03.280 --> 1:05:06.080 I just don't know what to a Tagavalo is yet. 1:05:06.440 --> 1:05:09.160 So I just don't understand that team right now. You know, 1:05:09.200 --> 1:05:11.800 with Fitzy, I know exactly what I'm getting. I'm either 1:05:11.840 --> 1:05:15.280 getting some compident quarterback or a blow up for interception performance. 1:05:15.680 --> 1:05:17.440 I don't know what I'm getting with two. I think 1:05:17.480 --> 1:05:20.240 it's Indianapolis Detroit for me. I think I agree with 1:05:20.280 --> 1:05:22.919 Mikey and and all these are good choices. You could 1:05:22.920 --> 1:05:27.080 pick a lot of these games, but Indianapolis Detroit. I 1:05:27.120 --> 1:05:30.920 don't know if I really understand either of these teams. Like, 1:05:30.960 --> 1:05:33.240 I don't know if it's like people were all over 1:05:33.280 --> 1:05:36.480 they were sweating Indiana's defense. Indianapolis defense was the greatest 1:05:36.480 --> 1:05:38.560 thing in the world. They're not that great. And then 1:05:38.600 --> 1:05:41.920 Philip Rivers can't trust him. And there's Detroit three and three, right, 1:05:41.960 --> 1:05:44.880 but like we kill Matt Patricia because he's terrible in 1:05:45.000 --> 1:05:48.320 game coach, and then what I'm supposed to know what 1:05:48.360 --> 1:05:50.760 we're getting with them? Detroit takes a lot of leads 1:05:50.760 --> 1:05:52.080 and a squandered a lot of leads. I get it. 1:05:52.080 --> 1:05:54.560 They came back against the Falcons. Something finally worked out 1:05:54.600 --> 1:05:57.400 for them perfectly. But I don't trust them. So I mean, 1:05:57.440 --> 1:06:00.560 for me, that game is I could see any outcome, 1:06:00.600 --> 1:06:03.120 Like if you told me now Indianapolis won by double digits, 1:06:03.160 --> 1:06:05.320 if you told me Detroit won by double digits, I 1:06:05.400 --> 1:06:07.480 might be surprised by Detroit winning by double digits, but 1:06:07.960 --> 1:06:11.080 either way, I could see it happening. Um So, that's 1:06:11.120 --> 1:06:14.640 the deal. Excellently done, gentlemen. Thank you to Mike Palm 1:06:14.680 --> 1:06:16.240 who had to break out of here because he's a 1:06:16.240 --> 1:06:19.080 busy man these days. With the Circle opening, maybe next 1:06:19.080 --> 1:06:21.800 week we will be at Circa. That will be the hope. 1:06:22.160 --> 1:06:24.840 Um So, for Mike Palm and Todd, wishing of thank you, gentlemen, 1:06:24.840 --> 1:06:27.640 Thank you Todd from your mother's attic, your mother's cork 1:06:27.680 --> 1:06:32.840 addict there in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. It's cork, right, Yeah, it's cork. 1:06:32.920 --> 1:06:40.520 That's what I thought. It's it's a ginger bread. Uh. 1:06:40.560 --> 1:06:43.280 And Jeff Parls, who, by the way, I finally said 1:06:43.320 --> 1:06:46.000 his name correctly, so because his parents will be upset 1:06:46.040 --> 1:06:47.920 with me, I think if I didn't say it. Jeff Pearls, 1:06:47.960 --> 1:06:53.040 who affectionately known as Parlay. The Parlay podcasts available. We're 1:06:53.040 --> 1:06:56.640 all podcasts are distributed, right, Jeff. Of course, of course 1:06:56.920 --> 1:06:58.760 I'm gonna as soon as we're done here, I'm gonna 1:06:58.760 --> 1:07:02.640 be riding right into right into one of those as well. So. 1:07:02.680 --> 1:07:05.640 But Gil, it's Gil, It's it's it's awesome. Awesome to 1:07:05.680 --> 1:07:08.720 see is always awesome to hear you, awesome to uh, 1:07:08.840 --> 1:07:11.800 awesome to see how everyone is doing well through these 1:07:11.840 --> 1:07:15.240 crazy times. And also to UH again wishing the best 1:07:15.240 --> 1:07:17.560 for Chris Andrews. Hope he can get on the men 1:07:17.640 --> 1:07:21.160 sooner rather than later, of course, Uh and UH, and 1:07:21.280 --> 1:07:24.640 congratulations again to Mike and Derek and the entire team 1:07:24.640 --> 1:07:27.200 over at Circa. I can't wait to see that place 1:07:27.240 --> 1:07:32.120 in person. It looks absolutely incredible. It's insane, it's absolutely insane. 1:07:32.120 --> 1:07:36.320 The sports Book inside and outside, absolutely insane and uh yes, 1:07:36.520 --> 1:07:38.400 very kind of you. Also well wishes from all of 1:07:38.480 --> 1:07:41.400 us to Chris Andrews to close the show, who we 1:07:41.440 --> 1:07:43.360 hope to have for guessing lines on Monday right here 1:07:43.520 --> 1:07:46.800 on the Beating the Book Podcast. Thank you all for listening. 1:07:46.880 --> 1:07:51.959 Good luck with all your bets week eate in the NFL. Yeah, 1:07:52.480 --> 1:08:04.000 thank you boys. The Battle Battle b