Speaker 1: Welcome to Zero.
Speaker 2: I am akshatrati this week good Cop, bad Cop.
Speaker 3: I had to use it sometimes.
Speaker 2: I'm in Baku, Yes, still in Baku.
Speaker 3: For COP twenty nine.
Speaker 2: It's week two, which means the biggest heads of state
Speaker 2: have gone home, as have many climate celebrities like al
Speaker 2: Gore and Theresa May. Now negotiators are getting down to business.
Speaker 2: We are still days away from knowing what agreement, if any,
Speaker 2: might be reached, and Zero will come to you with
Speaker 2: how it all went down next week. In the meantime,
Speaker 2: there are already questions about what the next COP might
Speaker 2: look like, and for good reasons. As we explode in
Speaker 2: a previous episode, the small state of Azerbaijan has had
Speaker 2: its hands full in hosting fifty thousand delegates and advocates
Speaker 2: who arrived in Baku from around the world. Next year,
Speaker 2: Brazil will play host, but not in Rio or Sa Paolo. Instead,
Speaker 2: the conference is said to be in the city of Belem,
Speaker 2: the gateway to the Amazon, a beautiful coastal city that
Speaker 2: might not have the infrastructure to host fifty thousand people.
Speaker 2: But Brazil has been trying to position itself as a
Speaker 2: leader on climate, and it warns people who come to
Speaker 2: COP thirty to realize what's on the line. But Brazil
Speaker 2: is also growing. It's all in gas production and quickly
Speaker 2: reaching levels that match the United Arab Emirates. So I
Speaker 2: was eager to catch up with Andre Corea the Lago,
Speaker 2: Brazil's Secretary for Climate, Energy and the Environment. He's rumored
Speaker 2: to be the next COP president, something he wouldn't confirm
Speaker 2: on the record, but he wasn't shy in answering just
Speaker 2: how much Brazil has to do to make COP thirty
Speaker 2: a success, from challenging the sticks to fracture in geopolitics
Speaker 2: and what COP twenty nine must get right to give
Speaker 2: Brazil a better footing. Andre, welcome to the show.
Speaker 1: Hello, it's lovely to be here.
Speaker 2: Now tell us what Brazil is hoping to get out
Speaker 2: of COP twenty nine specifically.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Look, you know that one of the basic principles
Speaker 4: of brazil foreign policy is to strengthen multilateralism. So we want,
Speaker 4: obviously COP twenty nine.
Speaker 1: To be very successful.
Speaker 4: We believe in UNFCCC, we believe in the Paris Accord,
Speaker 4: and we have to show the world that this is
Speaker 4: the right way of doing things.
Speaker 2: And at coptery nine there are going to be two
Speaker 2: things that need to be worked on. One it seems
Speaker 2: has already been worked on, which is Article six. Are
Speaker 2: you happy with the Article six outcome?
Speaker 4: I think that to have an outcome is already a
Speaker 4: very good news. I like quite a lot the solution,
Speaker 4: but now we have to transform it into something practical
Speaker 4: because the problem is that we've been thinking about that
Speaker 4: for nine years and we saw that in general, carbon
Speaker 4: markets and everything else have been very complicated in recent years,
Speaker 4: and I think that this decision will be extremely important
Speaker 4: to put some order into that. We think that this
Speaker 4: is a very important step.
Speaker 2: So you know that among the things that we approved
Speaker 2: our possibility of old credits being grandfathered into the Article
Speaker 2: six program, and they could be on sale as soon
Speaker 2: as January one, twenty twenty five. And many of those
Speaker 2: old credits, vast majority of them are renewable energy credits,
Speaker 2: which many experts have said are junk and really should
Speaker 2: not have been allowed to grandfather into a new market
Speaker 2: that is hoping to be quite credible so that it
Speaker 2: can sustain and it can grow. Are you not worried
Speaker 2: about the credibility of the old offsets?
Speaker 4: Look, we need to have environmental integrity in that operation,
Speaker 4: or we're going to destroy the already battered carbon market.
Speaker 4: Carbon markets I think can be amazing, but it's true
Speaker 4: that these years have been very confusing, so we have
Speaker 4: to analyze that and somehow. You know, in a negotiation,
Speaker 4: for good things to pass, sometimes you need other things
Speaker 4: also to pass.
Speaker 1: So let's see.
Speaker 4: How we can manage that. We are very concerned with
Speaker 4: forestry credits because we believe that they are the most
Speaker 4: important credits possible, because as we know, restoration of for
Speaker 4: us are probably today the most science supported form of
Speaker 4: sink that you can create, and these credits, for instance,
Speaker 4: have been very much discredited. I'm sorry for using the
Speaker 4: word and this is absurd because if you believe in
Speaker 4: urgency to fight climate change, you need to do the
Speaker 4: best possible things as soon as possible. It's useless also
Speaker 4: to try to do the perfect system if we know
Speaker 4: that we have very few years ahead of us. So
Speaker 4: let's try to be ambitious and at the same time
Speaker 4: to be practical and not to be unhappy in three
Speaker 4: years when we discovered that we could have done many things.
Speaker 4: Some of them may fail, some of them may not
Speaker 4: have environmental integrity. But let's concentrate on the majority. They
Speaker 4: try to have the overwhelming majority of what do we
Speaker 4: do with environmental integrity.
Speaker 2: The second thing on the agenda is the new Quantified
Speaker 2: Goal on Climate finance, and that is crucial for developing
Speaker 2: countries like Brazil, like India, but so many other developing
Speaker 2: countries to step up their climate actions. And without a
Speaker 2: good outcome on a larger amount of money supporting the
Speaker 2: action of developing countries, you're not likely to get very
Speaker 2: ambitious targets set under the nationally determined contributions, and that
Speaker 2: will have so many downstream impacts. It will affect COP thirty,
Speaker 2: which is going to come to Brazil. So on NCQG,
Speaker 2: where do you think things stand right now and how
Speaker 2: much of an ambitious deal could we get?
Speaker 1: We're not in the right direction.
Speaker 4: That I think is quite clear, and I think that
Speaker 4: we have to understand the Convention. Although we are all
Speaker 4: de developing countries under a certain category in the Convention,
Speaker 4: but the truth is that you have some very low
Speaker 4: income countries that really need full support. That it's even
Speaker 4: absurd to think that they have to mitigate when they
Speaker 4: are absolutely not responsible for emissions and they have to
Speaker 4: take care of schools, they have to take care of
Speaker 4: health and other things, and their action is not going
Speaker 4: to have such a big impact because they emit very little.
Speaker 4: It's very unfair somehow. And then you have the middle
Speaker 4: income developing countries like Brazil, like Indonesia, like India, and
Speaker 4: we can do a lot to mitigate climate change, and
Speaker 4: we are doing a lot to mitigate climate change, and
Speaker 4: the sums that we're talking about under the NCQG is
Speaker 4: very far from what we know is reality. Most of
Speaker 4: the studies have been showing that we're going to need
Speaker 4: trillians and we're talking about some one hundred billions that
Speaker 4: are very necessary. I'm not going to say they are
Speaker 4: not necessary, but they are not the full solution. And
Speaker 4: then you have to organize the finance in a way
Speaker 4: that it can fulfill the needs of the lower income countries,
Speaker 4: which I think the NCQG can deal with that. But
Speaker 4: we need much more money for these middle income countries
Speaker 4: to do what they need to do, and this is
Speaker 4: not going to come in the NCQG. I don't see
Speaker 4: the developed countries having the same sense of urgency that
Speaker 4: they proclaim as climate change. Oh, the PROCLAIMATY is very
Speaker 4: close it's very close, but the this urgency is not
Speaker 4: in the finances. You don't see the same sense of urgency.
Speaker 4: So what do countries like in the Indonesia and Brazil,
Speaker 4: for instance, do Brazil worked on that very hard on
Speaker 4: the G twenty in our presidency of the G twenty,
Speaker 4: and how much we have to mainstream climates into investments
Speaker 4: in general and not in specific funds. We are huge economies,
Speaker 4: the developing countries that are in the G twenty, and
Speaker 4: we perfectly understand that it's not going to be grants.
Speaker 1: It's not going to be that that is going to
Speaker 1: solve our issue.
Speaker 4: The problem is that we pay too much for foreign capital.
Speaker 4: We cannot afford to pay. It's completely absurd that we
Speaker 4: have to pay such a high price to have this capital.
Speaker 4: So we have to work on many fields. So the
Speaker 4: NCQG is one of them. Is extremely important, but we
Speaker 4: also have to be practical and think that we have
Speaker 4: very few years ahead of it.
Speaker 2: Yes, So if I am hearing you right, you're saying NCQG,
Speaker 2: the needs are clearly in the trillions, but there is
Speaker 2: very little possibility or political feasibility of the trillions being approved.
Speaker 2: But the hundreds of billions may get approved, and that
Speaker 2: means the gap has to be filled in other ways,
Speaker 2: and those other ways are what.
Speaker 4: The other ways are the mainstream of the economy. Countries
Speaker 4: like Brazil, Indonesia or India, we are very investible countries.
Speaker 4: I mean, there are many things to be done in
Speaker 4: our countries, and our economies are huge and our population
Speaker 4: is huge, and so we have to lower the cost
Speaker 4: of capital I think will have an amazing impact. Then
Speaker 4: you have also to recognize that countries like ours, including China,
Speaker 4: we've been doing so many things inside our country without
Speaker 4: foreign support, and this is never taken into consideration. For instance,
Speaker 4: fighting deforestation in Brazil, ninety percent of what we spend
Speaker 4: is from our budget, is not international support. So this
Speaker 4: recognition of what we're doing and the importance that we
Speaker 4: invest in our own effort to combat climate change is
Speaker 4: not taken into consideration. So there is this very strange
Speaker 4: idea of increasing the donor base, which is completely getting
Speaker 4: out of the main subject. The main subject is what
Speaker 4: are the developed countries going to provide for the developing
Speaker 4: countries under the rules of the Paris Accord.
Speaker 2: But are there steps that can be taken or are
Speaker 2: being taken to lower the cost of capital coming into Brazil,
Speaker 2: India and Indonesia.
Speaker 4: We are trying in the G twenty. I think that
Speaker 4: there was quite a good progress because we put together
Speaker 4: for the first time in the G twenty the ministers
Speaker 4: of finance and the central bankers talking together with their
Speaker 4: ministers of foreign affairs and ministers of climate. And it
Speaker 4: was quite surprising because even in the developed countries they
Speaker 4: hardly knew each other. So I think this is a progress.
Speaker 4: But what really drives us is the sense of urgency,
Speaker 4: and the sense of urgency cannot only be in ambition. Yeah,
Speaker 4: it has to be finance, it has to be action.
Speaker 2: Where is the next G twenty happening.
Speaker 1: In South Africa?
Speaker 2: So that's great, But I hear that the South African
Speaker 2: economy ministry and the finance ministry do not get on
Speaker 2: with each other, so they might not do what you
Speaker 2: did so successfully under the Brazil G twenty. Is that right?
Speaker 1: I think that.
Speaker 4: I have to tell you that the biggest differences between
Speaker 4: finance ministries and climate ministries that I saw in the
Speaker 4: G twenty was in some European countries.
Speaker 2: So do you think given the tense negotiations which is
Speaker 2: the case every comp but especially when it comes to money,
Speaker 2: and there's sorts of money. We are talking at COP
Speaker 2: twenty nine. Do you think there will be a deal
Speaker 2: at the end?
Speaker 4: I do hope that because I hope that for two reasons,
Speaker 4: First as a citizen of the planet and second because
Speaker 4: Brazil is going to preside the next COP, so we
Speaker 4: need a successful COP twenty nine.
Speaker 2: So between now and the next COP, Donald Trump is
Speaker 2: going to come to power, and he has said that
Speaker 2: he will pull the US out of the Paris Agreement,
Speaker 2: which is something he did in his first term in
Speaker 2: twenty seventeen. Last time around, the impact wasn't very much
Speaker 2: because of rules. He only left in November twenty twenty
Speaker 2: and jan twenty twenty one, Joe Biden joined the US
Speaker 2: into the Paris Agreement again. This time he can have
Speaker 2: much greater impact because he will leave within a year,
Speaker 2: and he could pull the US out of the UN
Speaker 2: Climate Treaty altogether. So when you meet your US counterparts
Speaker 2: right now who are from the Biden administration, do you
Speaker 2: take them seriously?
Speaker 4: I take them very seriously because they are really serious negotiators.
Speaker 4: But we have to try to find a new way
Speaker 4: of dealing with the US. But we cannot think that
Speaker 4: the US is just the government of the US. The
Speaker 4: US is universities, scientists, states, cities, and many of them,
Speaker 4: most of them believe in climate change and believe that
Speaker 4: things have to be done. So if you just take California,
Speaker 4: it's one of the biggest economies in the world. So
Speaker 4: if you concentrate your efforts on the sectors of the
Speaker 4: US that can contribute to this debate, it's already a lot.
Speaker 4: It's obvious that it would be much better to have
Speaker 4: the whole government together. Now, what I also believe is
Speaker 4: that even the most anti climate personality in America or
Speaker 4: whatever will rethink about it if he sees that he
Speaker 4: can have profits working with climate change. So see for instance, Texas.
Speaker 4: Texas has become one of the states of the United
Speaker 4: States that uses most renewables, with the wind energy, with
Speaker 4: solar energy. Why it's not an ideological decision like people
Speaker 4: say that California is. This was exclusively because of the cost,
Speaker 4: because it was a good business. So for those who
Speaker 4: don't believe in those discussions, let's talk with the language
Speaker 4: of business with others. Let's talk with the appropriate language of.
Speaker 2: Chun see there is a deal a chapter twenty nine
Speaker 2: on the NCQG, and then the US pulls out of
Speaker 2: the Paris Agreement. The US is the world's largest economy,
Speaker 2: it would, I believe, have to promise the largest sum
Speaker 2: to be given under the NCQG. If the US gets out,
Speaker 2: what happens to the NCQG.
Speaker 4: I think that it would be quite logical not to
Speaker 4: expect the US to be one of the main funders
Speaker 4: of the NCQG.
Speaker 2: Even now, So going into the deal, you don't think that'll.
Speaker 4: Happen, because even if you're negotiating with the bide and administration,
Speaker 4: the truth is that the signs that President Trump has
Speaker 4: already shown are very clear.
Speaker 2: And so if what happens at the NSQG and the
Speaker 2: US is backtracking from its commitments shows up at COP thirty,
Speaker 2: how are you going to make sure COP thirty is
Speaker 2: a success. Because the NCQG will be a challenge. Not
Speaker 2: enough countries will have submitted ambitious NDCs. They will look
Speaker 2: at the US, the world's largest historical emitter, and say
Speaker 2: they're out, why should we contribute? And you get into
Speaker 2: a new, bigger fight when you come to COP thirty.
Speaker 2: So what are you doing now to avoid that.
Speaker 4: Well, I think we cannot avoid that. We have to
Speaker 4: deal with that, and so we'll have to find some
Speaker 4: intelligence answers to those intelligent questions. But that is reality.
Speaker 4: We have to face reality, like climate change if you
Speaker 4: believe in it. So it's a big challenge, there is
Speaker 4: no doubt about it.
Speaker 2: After the break, more from my conversation with Brazilian Secretary
Speaker 2: for Climate, Energy and the Environment Andre Corea the logo.
Speaker 3: By the way, if you've.
Speaker 2: Been enjoying this episode, please take a moment to rate
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Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 2: Cop thirty is currently scheduled to happen in Bellm. We
Speaker 2: just got attendance figures today and there are expecting fifty
Speaker 2: two thousand people coming to this cup. Now, this is
Speaker 2: the capital of a country. It's a small country, but
Speaker 2: it's the capital of a country, and you are able
Speaker 2: to manage that crowd. My understanding is Bellm is a
Speaker 2: really good place to go to just understand what the
Speaker 2: amazon is, but it's not got the capacity to host
Speaker 2: fifty thousand people, let alone eighty thousand people which showed
Speaker 2: up in Dubai. So what is the plan currently for
Speaker 2: COP thirty in Brazil?
Speaker 4: In Belem, the plan is to have a COP that
Speaker 4: is proportional to what the city can offer, but also
Speaker 4: a COP that will leave a very positive legacy to
Speaker 4: the city. So we cannot build pharonic things just for
Speaker 4: a COP. If we are going to improve the city
Speaker 4: for the COP, it's to improve the city itself and
Speaker 4: there will be a legacy for the population. Now, we're
Speaker 4: going to have to do it differently, obviously very differently
Speaker 4: than Dubai was or what Baku is operating, but you
Speaker 4: can be sure that we will be very transparent about
Speaker 4: what is possible.
Speaker 1: To have in Berlin.
Speaker 4: We have a full team of the people that are
Speaker 4: organizing the billain here seeing all the challenges that we
Speaker 4: will have to face. But the symbolism of having it
Speaker 4: in the Amazon, and the fact that Brazil is developing
Speaker 4: countries with many success stories but also with huge challenges,
Speaker 4: and the fact that Brazil assumes to do it in
Speaker 4: a complex place, I think it has a fantastic political power.
Speaker 4: We are not trying to hide the problems we have
Speaker 4: and as you know, deforestation is our main source of emissions.
Speaker 4: We have a very strange profile of emissions. So we
Speaker 4: are taking the world to the place where we have
Speaker 4: our biggest source of emission, and we're going to show
Speaker 4: to the world how complex the Amazon region is. With
Speaker 4: the best food in Brazil on one side, the most
Speaker 4: beautiful natural place you can imagine, but a city that
Speaker 4: still has lots of very strong social challenges. So I
Speaker 4: think that it is quite refreshing to have a country.
Speaker 4: Obviously I'm suspicious because I'm Brazilian, but I'm quite proud
Speaker 4: of being a country that doesn't hide its problem. It's
Speaker 4: a country that is showing the world it's problems and
Speaker 4: let's try to work on that. Everybody has its problem
Speaker 4: and we are showing ours very clearly to everybody.
Speaker 2: So how many people do you think, well them will
Speaker 2: be able to fit.
Speaker 4: I think that the organizers are working on fifty thousand people.
Speaker 4: They are working on fifty thousands, but President Lula wants
Speaker 4: very strong participation of civil society, so we'll have to
Speaker 4: measure how many people. I mean, because the negotiators, as
Speaker 4: you know, is something that doesn't move very much, is
Speaker 4: around twenty thousand people. Then you have the UNFCCC staff
Speaker 4: is one hundred, there's like eight hundred two thousand people,
Speaker 4: So we're dealing with the realistic numbers. But President Lula
Speaker 4: doesn't want, you know, to let's have less people from
Speaker 4: civil society. No, we need lots of presence and citizens.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Now Brazil produces more oil than the UAE does, and
Speaker 2: President Lula has asked Petro Brass to produce even more oil.
Speaker 2: How is that going to play in your NBC?
Speaker 4: We have to deal with this very, very challenging reality
Speaker 4: is that last year Brazil's main expert was oil. So
Speaker 4: from an economic point of view, this is obviously interpreted
Speaker 4: by most of the Brazilians as something that we didn't expect.
Speaker 4: And this only happened because of the incredible technological progress
Speaker 4: of Petro Brass that is looking for oil in places
Speaker 4: that are extremely complex and technologically difficult places to exploit oil.
Speaker 4: So there is a part of Brazil that is extremely
Speaker 4: proud of Petrobrias to have found oil in such deep areas.
Speaker 4: And then on the other side, we all are conscious
Speaker 4: that we have to transition away from fossil fuels. So
Speaker 4: this is the big debate we're going to have in
Speaker 4: Brazil next year because we have to arrive at COP
Speaker 4: thirty lead by example as our Minister of the environment,
Speaker 4: but in a silver always says so.
Speaker 2: Over here, you're hoping there will be a big financing
Speaker 2: push that will hopefully make it possible for countries to
Speaker 2: come with new ambitions in bellum at COP thirty. What
Speaker 2: other metrics are you setting for success? First is that
Speaker 2: countries need to come up with new ambition with goals
Speaker 2: set out to twenty thirty five and ideally start to
Speaker 2: finally reduce emissions that paces needed.
Speaker 3: What are the other priorities?
Speaker 4: I think that to try to make it as simple
Speaker 4: as possible, we feel that urgency has to be everywhere
Speaker 4: when we talk about climate change. So this is a
Speaker 4: progress in these debates that will make a huge difference.
Speaker 4: So it's not only the an f c C. It's
Speaker 4: not only the Paris Accord. It's the economy in general.
Speaker 4: It's the behavior of people that have to take into
Speaker 4: consideration the urgency, economic theory, ministries of finance, ministries of transportation.
Speaker 4: I mean it's not that's the sense of the n
Speaker 4: dissies is that the ndsies create a number that is
Speaker 4: an objective, and each country is going to find its
Speaker 4: way to reach it, and we have to do it
Speaker 4: together because, as you are saying, if the richest country
Speaker 4: in the world is going to backtrack maybe on some
Speaker 4: of its commitments, why the others are going to follow.
Speaker 4: So we have to build something really strong in which
Speaker 4: the world is con vinced of the urgency. How are
Speaker 4: we going to do that this? I cannot give you
Speaker 4: the answer now.
Speaker 2: So in a way, now COP thirty becomes how to
Speaker 2: defend the climate consensus even as the US leaves the
Speaker 2: paras of card.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but remember that when we say the US is
Speaker 4: leaving US, scientists are not living US.
Speaker 1: Business is not living.
Speaker 4: And we have to think that the symbolic billionaire that
Speaker 4: supports President Trump is eln Musk. Elon Musk is the
Speaker 4: guy that made America fall in love with electric cars.
Speaker 4: So there are many dimensions in America. We cannot oversimplify
Speaker 4: what it is. And I mean, if the oil companies
Speaker 4: find a way of contributing to the transition away from
Speaker 4: fossil fuels, that would be super welcome. I mean everybody
Speaker 4: has to come with solution in their own way, in
Speaker 4: a reasonable with reasonable costs, and with reasonable social costs.
Speaker 4: Because we have seen in some countries that the fight
Speaker 4: against climate change has made some of the basic services
Speaker 4: more expensive. This is not the solution. You lose the
Speaker 4: support of the population for this fight.
Speaker 2: So I'm looking forward to the new Brazil climate plan.
Speaker 2: But given Petrobrass's state backed are we also going to
Speaker 2: see a new climate plan from your state backed oil company.
Speaker 1: Ah, that's a good question. Let's talk to Peter Brass together.
Speaker 2: Thank you for coming on the show.
Speaker 3: Thank you very much, thank you for listening to zero.
Speaker 2: And now for the sound of the week. This is
Speaker 2: this sound of cop. Every year, almost always, there is
Speaker 2: wooden flooring newly put to turn something into a cop
Speaker 2: venue and have thousands and thousands of people walk across it,
Speaker 2: making this drumbeat of a noise that's the sound of
Speaker 2: the footsteps inside the Bako Olympic Stadium, the drumbeat.
Speaker 3: That dictates the pace of negotiations.
Speaker 2: If you liked this episode, please take a moment to
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Speaker 2: Also check out Bloombergreens coverage of COP twenty nine. It's
Speaker 2: free to read, share this episode with a friend or
Speaker 2: with someone who is ready to plan a trip to.
Speaker 3: Brazil in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: You can get in touch at zero Pod at bloomberg
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