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Speaker 1: Welcome to Zero.

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Speaker 2: I am akshatrati this week good Cop, bad Cop.

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Speaker 3: I had to use it sometimes.

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Speaker 2: I'm in Baku, Yes, still in Baku.

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Speaker 3: For COP twenty nine.

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Speaker 2: It's week two, which means the biggest heads of state

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Speaker 2: have gone home, as have many climate celebrities like al

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Speaker 2: Gore and Theresa May. Now negotiators are getting down to business.

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Speaker 2: We are still days away from knowing what agreement, if any,

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Speaker 2: might be reached, and Zero will come to you with

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Speaker 2: how it all went down next week. In the meantime,

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Speaker 2: there are already questions about what the next COP might

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Speaker 2: look like, and for good reasons. As we explode in

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Speaker 2: a previous episode, the small state of Azerbaijan has had

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Speaker 2: its hands full in hosting fifty thousand delegates and advocates

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Speaker 2: who arrived in Baku from around the world. Next year,

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Speaker 2: Brazil will play host, but not in Rio or Sa Paolo. Instead,

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Speaker 2: the conference is said to be in the city of Belem,

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Speaker 2: the gateway to the Amazon, a beautiful coastal city that

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Speaker 2: might not have the infrastructure to host fifty thousand people.

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Speaker 2: But Brazil has been trying to position itself as a

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Speaker 2: leader on climate, and it warns people who come to

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Speaker 2: COP thirty to realize what's on the line. But Brazil

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Speaker 2: is also growing. It's all in gas production and quickly

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Speaker 2: reaching levels that match the United Arab Emirates. So I

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Speaker 2: was eager to catch up with Andre Corea the Lago,

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Speaker 2: Brazil's Secretary for Climate, Energy and the Environment. He's rumored

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Speaker 2: to be the next COP president, something he wouldn't confirm

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Speaker 2: on the record, but he wasn't shy in answering just

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Speaker 2: how much Brazil has to do to make COP thirty

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Speaker 2: a success, from challenging the sticks to fracture in geopolitics

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Speaker 2: and what COP twenty nine must get right to give

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Speaker 2: Brazil a better footing. Andre, welcome to the show.

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Speaker 1: Hello, it's lovely to be here.

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Speaker 2: Now tell us what Brazil is hoping to get out

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Speaker 2: of COP twenty nine specifically.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Look, you know that one of the basic principles

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Speaker 4: of brazil foreign policy is to strengthen multilateralism. So we want,

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Speaker 4: obviously COP twenty nine.

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Speaker 1: To be very successful.

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Speaker 4: We believe in UNFCCC, we believe in the Paris Accord,

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Speaker 4: and we have to show the world that this is

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Speaker 4: the right way of doing things.

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Speaker 2: And at coptery nine there are going to be two

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Speaker 2: things that need to be worked on. One it seems

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Speaker 2: has already been worked on, which is Article six. Are

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Speaker 2: you happy with the Article six outcome?

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Speaker 4: I think that to have an outcome is already a

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Speaker 4: very good news. I like quite a lot the solution,

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Speaker 4: but now we have to transform it into something practical

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Speaker 4: because the problem is that we've been thinking about that

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Speaker 4: for nine years and we saw that in general, carbon

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Speaker 4: markets and everything else have been very complicated in recent years,

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Speaker 4: and I think that this decision will be extremely important

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Speaker 4: to put some order into that. We think that this

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Speaker 4: is a very important step.

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Speaker 2: So you know that among the things that we approved

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Speaker 2: our possibility of old credits being grandfathered into the Article

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Speaker 2: six program, and they could be on sale as soon

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Speaker 2: as January one, twenty twenty five. And many of those

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Speaker 2: old credits, vast majority of them are renewable energy credits,

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Speaker 2: which many experts have said are junk and really should

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Speaker 2: not have been allowed to grandfather into a new market

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Speaker 2: that is hoping to be quite credible so that it

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Speaker 2: can sustain and it can grow. Are you not worried

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Speaker 2: about the credibility of the old offsets?

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Speaker 4: Look, we need to have environmental integrity in that operation,

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Speaker 4: or we're going to destroy the already battered carbon market.

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Speaker 4: Carbon markets I think can be amazing, but it's true

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Speaker 4: that these years have been very confusing, so we have

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Speaker 4: to analyze that and somehow. You know, in a negotiation,

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Speaker 4: for good things to pass, sometimes you need other things

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Speaker 4: also to pass.

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Speaker 1: So let's see.

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Speaker 4: How we can manage that. We are very concerned with

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Speaker 4: forestry credits because we believe that they are the most

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Speaker 4: important credits possible, because as we know, restoration of for

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Speaker 4: us are probably today the most science supported form of

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Speaker 4: sink that you can create, and these credits, for instance,

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Speaker 4: have been very much discredited. I'm sorry for using the

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Speaker 4: word and this is absurd because if you believe in

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Speaker 4: urgency to fight climate change, you need to do the

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Speaker 4: best possible things as soon as possible. It's useless also

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Speaker 4: to try to do the perfect system if we know

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Speaker 4: that we have very few years ahead of us. So

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Speaker 4: let's try to be ambitious and at the same time

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Speaker 4: to be practical and not to be unhappy in three

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Speaker 4: years when we discovered that we could have done many things.

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Speaker 4: Some of them may fail, some of them may not

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Speaker 4: have environmental integrity. But let's concentrate on the majority. They

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Speaker 4: try to have the overwhelming majority of what do we

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Speaker 4: do with environmental integrity.

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Speaker 2: The second thing on the agenda is the new Quantified

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Speaker 2: Goal on Climate finance, and that is crucial for developing

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Speaker 2: countries like Brazil, like India, but so many other developing

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Speaker 2: countries to step up their climate actions. And without a

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Speaker 2: good outcome on a larger amount of money supporting the

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Speaker 2: action of developing countries, you're not likely to get very

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Speaker 2: ambitious targets set under the nationally determined contributions, and that

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Speaker 2: will have so many downstream impacts. It will affect COP thirty,

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Speaker 2: which is going to come to Brazil. So on NCQG,

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Speaker 2: where do you think things stand right now and how

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Speaker 2: much of an ambitious deal could we get?

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Speaker 1: We're not in the right direction.

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Speaker 4: That I think is quite clear, and I think that

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Speaker 4: we have to understand the Convention. Although we are all

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Speaker 4: de developing countries under a certain category in the Convention,

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Speaker 4: but the truth is that you have some very low

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Speaker 4: income countries that really need full support. That it's even

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Speaker 4: absurd to think that they have to mitigate when they

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Speaker 4: are absolutely not responsible for emissions and they have to

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Speaker 4: take care of schools, they have to take care of

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Speaker 4: health and other things, and their action is not going

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Speaker 4: to have such a big impact because they emit very little.

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Speaker 4: It's very unfair somehow. And then you have the middle

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Speaker 4: income developing countries like Brazil, like Indonesia, like India, and

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Speaker 4: we can do a lot to mitigate climate change, and

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Speaker 4: we are doing a lot to mitigate climate change, and

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Speaker 4: the sums that we're talking about under the NCQG is

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Speaker 4: very far from what we know is reality. Most of

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Speaker 4: the studies have been showing that we're going to need

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Speaker 4: trillians and we're talking about some one hundred billions that

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Speaker 4: are very necessary. I'm not going to say they are

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Speaker 4: not necessary, but they are not the full solution. And

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Speaker 4: then you have to organize the finance in a way

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Speaker 4: that it can fulfill the needs of the lower income countries,

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Speaker 4: which I think the NCQG can deal with that. But

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Speaker 4: we need much more money for these middle income countries

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Speaker 4: to do what they need to do, and this is

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Speaker 4: not going to come in the NCQG. I don't see

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Speaker 4: the developed countries having the same sense of urgency that

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Speaker 4: they proclaim as climate change. Oh, the PROCLAIMATY is very

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Speaker 4: close it's very close, but the this urgency is not

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Speaker 4: in the finances. You don't see the same sense of urgency.

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Speaker 4: So what do countries like in the Indonesia and Brazil,

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Speaker 4: for instance, do Brazil worked on that very hard on

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Speaker 4: the G twenty in our presidency of the G twenty,

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Speaker 4: and how much we have to mainstream climates into investments

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Speaker 4: in general and not in specific funds. We are huge economies,

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Speaker 4: the developing countries that are in the G twenty, and

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Speaker 4: we perfectly understand that it's not going to be grants.

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Speaker 1: It's not going to be that that is going to

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Speaker 1: solve our issue.

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Speaker 4: The problem is that we pay too much for foreign capital.

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Speaker 4: We cannot afford to pay. It's completely absurd that we

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Speaker 4: have to pay such a high price to have this capital.

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Speaker 4: So we have to work on many fields. So the

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Speaker 4: NCQG is one of them. Is extremely important, but we

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Speaker 4: also have to be practical and think that we have

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Speaker 4: very few years ahead of it.

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Speaker 2: Yes, So if I am hearing you right, you're saying NCQG,

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Speaker 2: the needs are clearly in the trillions, but there is

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Speaker 2: very little possibility or political feasibility of the trillions being approved.

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Speaker 2: But the hundreds of billions may get approved, and that

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Speaker 2: means the gap has to be filled in other ways,

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Speaker 2: and those other ways are what.

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Speaker 4: The other ways are the mainstream of the economy. Countries

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Speaker 4: like Brazil, Indonesia or India, we are very investible countries.

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Speaker 4: I mean, there are many things to be done in

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Speaker 4: our countries, and our economies are huge and our population

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Speaker 4: is huge, and so we have to lower the cost

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Speaker 4: of capital I think will have an amazing impact. Then

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Speaker 4: you have also to recognize that countries like ours, including China,

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Speaker 4: we've been doing so many things inside our country without

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Speaker 4: foreign support, and this is never taken into consideration. For instance,

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Speaker 4: fighting deforestation in Brazil, ninety percent of what we spend

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Speaker 4: is from our budget, is not international support. So this

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Speaker 4: recognition of what we're doing and the importance that we

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Speaker 4: invest in our own effort to combat climate change is

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Speaker 4: not taken into consideration. So there is this very strange

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Speaker 4: idea of increasing the donor base, which is completely getting

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Speaker 4: out of the main subject. The main subject is what

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Speaker 4: are the developed countries going to provide for the developing

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Speaker 4: countries under the rules of the Paris Accord.

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Speaker 2: But are there steps that can be taken or are

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Speaker 2: being taken to lower the cost of capital coming into Brazil,

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Speaker 2: India and Indonesia.

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Speaker 4: We are trying in the G twenty. I think that

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Speaker 4: there was quite a good progress because we put together

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Speaker 4: for the first time in the G twenty the ministers

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Speaker 4: of finance and the central bankers talking together with their

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Speaker 4: ministers of foreign affairs and ministers of climate. And it

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Speaker 4: was quite surprising because even in the developed countries they

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Speaker 4: hardly knew each other. So I think this is a progress.

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Speaker 4: But what really drives us is the sense of urgency,

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Speaker 4: and the sense of urgency cannot only be in ambition. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: it has to be finance, it has to be action.

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Speaker 2: Where is the next G twenty happening.

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Speaker 1: In South Africa?

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Speaker 2: So that's great, But I hear that the South African

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Speaker 2: economy ministry and the finance ministry do not get on

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Speaker 2: with each other, so they might not do what you

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Speaker 2: did so successfully under the Brazil G twenty. Is that right?

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Speaker 1: I think that.

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Speaker 4: I have to tell you that the biggest differences between

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Speaker 4: finance ministries and climate ministries that I saw in the

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Speaker 4: G twenty was in some European countries.

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Speaker 2: So do you think given the tense negotiations which is

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Speaker 2: the case every comp but especially when it comes to money,

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Speaker 2: and there's sorts of money. We are talking at COP

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Speaker 2: twenty nine. Do you think there will be a deal

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Speaker 2: at the end?

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Speaker 4: I do hope that because I hope that for two reasons,

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Speaker 4: First as a citizen of the planet and second because

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Speaker 4: Brazil is going to preside the next COP, so we

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Speaker 4: need a successful COP twenty nine.

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Speaker 2: So between now and the next COP, Donald Trump is

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Speaker 2: going to come to power, and he has said that

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Speaker 2: he will pull the US out of the Paris Agreement,

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Speaker 2: which is something he did in his first term in

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Speaker 2: twenty seventeen. Last time around, the impact wasn't very much

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Speaker 2: because of rules. He only left in November twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: and jan twenty twenty one, Joe Biden joined the US

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Speaker 2: into the Paris Agreement again. This time he can have

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Speaker 2: much greater impact because he will leave within a year,

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Speaker 2: and he could pull the US out of the UN

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Speaker 2: Climate Treaty altogether. So when you meet your US counterparts

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Speaker 2: right now who are from the Biden administration, do you

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Speaker 2: take them seriously?

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Speaker 4: I take them very seriously because they are really serious negotiators.

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Speaker 4: But we have to try to find a new way

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Speaker 4: of dealing with the US. But we cannot think that

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Speaker 4: the US is just the government of the US. The

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Speaker 4: US is universities, scientists, states, cities, and many of them,

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Speaker 4: most of them believe in climate change and believe that

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Speaker 4: things have to be done. So if you just take California,

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Speaker 4: it's one of the biggest economies in the world. So

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Speaker 4: if you concentrate your efforts on the sectors of the

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Speaker 4: US that can contribute to this debate, it's already a lot.

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Speaker 4: It's obvious that it would be much better to have

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Speaker 4: the whole government together. Now, what I also believe is

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Speaker 4: that even the most anti climate personality in America or

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Speaker 4: whatever will rethink about it if he sees that he

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Speaker 4: can have profits working with climate change. So see for instance, Texas.

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Speaker 4: Texas has become one of the states of the United

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Speaker 4: States that uses most renewables, with the wind energy, with

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Speaker 4: solar energy. Why it's not an ideological decision like people

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Speaker 4: say that California is. This was exclusively because of the cost,

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Speaker 4: because it was a good business. So for those who

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Speaker 4: don't believe in those discussions, let's talk with the language

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Speaker 4: of business with others. Let's talk with the appropriate language of.

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Speaker 2: Chun see there is a deal a chapter twenty nine

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Speaker 2: on the NCQG, and then the US pulls out of

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Speaker 2: the Paris Agreement. The US is the world's largest economy,

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Speaker 2: it would, I believe, have to promise the largest sum

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Speaker 2: to be given under the NCQG. If the US gets out,

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Speaker 2: what happens to the NCQG.

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Speaker 4: I think that it would be quite logical not to

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Speaker 4: expect the US to be one of the main funders

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Speaker 4: of the NCQG.

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Speaker 2: Even now, So going into the deal, you don't think that'll.

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Speaker 4: Happen, because even if you're negotiating with the bide and administration,

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Speaker 4: the truth is that the signs that President Trump has

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Speaker 4: already shown are very clear.

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Speaker 2: And so if what happens at the NSQG and the

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Speaker 2: US is backtracking from its commitments shows up at COP thirty,

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Speaker 2: how are you going to make sure COP thirty is

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Speaker 2: a success. Because the NCQG will be a challenge. Not

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Speaker 2: enough countries will have submitted ambitious NDCs. They will look

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Speaker 2: at the US, the world's largest historical emitter, and say

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Speaker 2: they're out, why should we contribute? And you get into

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Speaker 2: a new, bigger fight when you come to COP thirty.

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Speaker 2: So what are you doing now to avoid that.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think we cannot avoid that. We have to

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Speaker 4: deal with that, and so we'll have to find some

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Speaker 4: intelligence answers to those intelligent questions. But that is reality.

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Speaker 4: We have to face reality, like climate change if you

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Speaker 4: believe in it. So it's a big challenge, there is

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Speaker 4: no doubt about it.

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Speaker 2: After the break, more from my conversation with Brazilian Secretary

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Speaker 2: for Climate, Energy and the Environment Andre Corea the logo.

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Speaker 3: By the way, if you've.

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Speaker 2: Been enjoying this episode, please take a moment to rate

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Speaker 2: and review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. It

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Speaker 2: helps other listeners find the show.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: Cop thirty is currently scheduled to happen in Bellm. We

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Speaker 2: just got attendance figures today and there are expecting fifty

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Speaker 2: two thousand people coming to this cup. Now, this is

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Speaker 2: the capital of a country. It's a small country, but

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Speaker 2: it's the capital of a country, and you are able

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Speaker 2: to manage that crowd. My understanding is Bellm is a

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Speaker 2: really good place to go to just understand what the

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Speaker 2: amazon is, but it's not got the capacity to host

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Speaker 2: fifty thousand people, let alone eighty thousand people which showed

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Speaker 2: up in Dubai. So what is the plan currently for

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Speaker 2: COP thirty in Brazil?

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Speaker 4: In Belem, the plan is to have a COP that

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Speaker 4: is proportional to what the city can offer, but also

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Speaker 4: a COP that will leave a very positive legacy to

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Speaker 4: the city. So we cannot build pharonic things just for

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Speaker 4: a COP. If we are going to improve the city

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Speaker 4: for the COP, it's to improve the city itself and

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Speaker 4: there will be a legacy for the population. Now, we're

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Speaker 4: going to have to do it differently, obviously very differently

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Speaker 4: than Dubai was or what Baku is operating, but you

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Speaker 4: can be sure that we will be very transparent about

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Speaker 4: what is possible.

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Speaker 1: To have in Berlin.

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Speaker 4: We have a full team of the people that are

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Speaker 4: organizing the billain here seeing all the challenges that we

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Speaker 4: will have to face. But the symbolism of having it

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Speaker 4: in the Amazon, and the fact that Brazil is developing

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Speaker 4: countries with many success stories but also with huge challenges,

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Speaker 4: and the fact that Brazil assumes to do it in

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Speaker 4: a complex place, I think it has a fantastic political power.

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Speaker 4: We are not trying to hide the problems we have

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Speaker 4: and as you know, deforestation is our main source of emissions.

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Speaker 4: We have a very strange profile of emissions. So we

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Speaker 4: are taking the world to the place where we have

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Speaker 4: our biggest source of emission, and we're going to show

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Speaker 4: to the world how complex the Amazon region is. With

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Speaker 4: the best food in Brazil on one side, the most

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Speaker 4: beautiful natural place you can imagine, but a city that

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Speaker 4: still has lots of very strong social challenges. So I

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Speaker 4: think that it is quite refreshing to have a country.

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Speaker 4: Obviously I'm suspicious because I'm Brazilian, but I'm quite proud

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Speaker 4: of being a country that doesn't hide its problem. It's

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Speaker 4: a country that is showing the world it's problems and

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Speaker 4: let's try to work on that. Everybody has its problem

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Speaker 4: and we are showing ours very clearly to everybody.

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Speaker 2: So how many people do you think, well them will

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Speaker 2: be able to fit.

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Speaker 4: I think that the organizers are working on fifty thousand people.

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Speaker 4: They are working on fifty thousands, but President Lula wants

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Speaker 4: very strong participation of civil society, so we'll have to

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Speaker 4: measure how many people. I mean, because the negotiators, as

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Speaker 4: you know, is something that doesn't move very much, is

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Speaker 4: around twenty thousand people. Then you have the UNFCCC staff

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Speaker 4: is one hundred, there's like eight hundred two thousand people,

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Speaker 4: So we're dealing with the realistic numbers. But President Lula

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Speaker 4: doesn't want, you know, to let's have less people from

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Speaker 4: civil society. No, we need lots of presence and citizens.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Now Brazil produces more oil than the UAE does, and

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Speaker 2: President Lula has asked Petro Brass to produce even more oil.

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Speaker 2: How is that going to play in your NBC?

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Speaker 4: We have to deal with this very, very challenging reality

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Speaker 4: is that last year Brazil's main expert was oil. So

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Speaker 4: from an economic point of view, this is obviously interpreted

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Speaker 4: by most of the Brazilians as something that we didn't expect.

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Speaker 4: And this only happened because of the incredible technological progress

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Speaker 4: of Petro Brass that is looking for oil in places

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Speaker 4: that are extremely complex and technologically difficult places to exploit oil.

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Speaker 4: So there is a part of Brazil that is extremely

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Speaker 4: proud of Petrobrias to have found oil in such deep areas.

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Speaker 4: And then on the other side, we all are conscious

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Speaker 4: that we have to transition away from fossil fuels. So

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Speaker 4: this is the big debate we're going to have in

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Speaker 4: Brazil next year because we have to arrive at COP

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Speaker 4: thirty lead by example as our Minister of the environment,

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Speaker 4: but in a silver always says so.

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Speaker 2: Over here, you're hoping there will be a big financing

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Speaker 2: push that will hopefully make it possible for countries to

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Speaker 2: come with new ambitions in bellum at COP thirty. What

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Speaker 2: other metrics are you setting for success? First is that

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Speaker 2: countries need to come up with new ambition with goals

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Speaker 2: set out to twenty thirty five and ideally start to

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Speaker 2: finally reduce emissions that paces needed.

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Speaker 3: What are the other priorities?

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Speaker 4: I think that to try to make it as simple

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Speaker 4: as possible, we feel that urgency has to be everywhere

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Speaker 4: when we talk about climate change. So this is a

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Speaker 4: progress in these debates that will make a huge difference.

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Speaker 4: So it's not only the an f c C. It's

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Speaker 4: not only the Paris Accord. It's the economy in general.

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Speaker 4: It's the behavior of people that have to take into

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Speaker 4: consideration the urgency, economic theory, ministries of finance, ministries of transportation.

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Speaker 4: I mean it's not that's the sense of the n

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Speaker 4: dissies is that the ndsies create a number that is

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Speaker 4: an objective, and each country is going to find its

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Speaker 4: way to reach it, and we have to do it

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Speaker 4: together because, as you are saying, if the richest country

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Speaker 4: in the world is going to backtrack maybe on some

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Speaker 4: of its commitments, why the others are going to follow.

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Speaker 4: So we have to build something really strong in which

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Speaker 4: the world is con vinced of the urgency. How are

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Speaker 4: we going to do that this? I cannot give you

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Speaker 4: the answer now.

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Speaker 2: So in a way, now COP thirty becomes how to

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Speaker 2: defend the climate consensus even as the US leaves the

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Speaker 2: paras of card.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but remember that when we say the US is

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Speaker 4: leaving US, scientists are not living US.

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Speaker 1: Business is not living.

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Speaker 4: And we have to think that the symbolic billionaire that

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Speaker 4: supports President Trump is eln Musk. Elon Musk is the

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Speaker 4: guy that made America fall in love with electric cars.

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Speaker 4: So there are many dimensions in America. We cannot oversimplify

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Speaker 4: what it is. And I mean, if the oil companies

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Speaker 4: find a way of contributing to the transition away from

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Speaker 4: fossil fuels, that would be super welcome. I mean everybody

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Speaker 4: has to come with solution in their own way, in

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Speaker 4: a reasonable with reasonable costs, and with reasonable social costs.

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Speaker 4: Because we have seen in some countries that the fight

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Speaker 4: against climate change has made some of the basic services

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Speaker 4: more expensive. This is not the solution. You lose the

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Speaker 4: support of the population for this fight.

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Speaker 2: So I'm looking forward to the new Brazil climate plan.

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Speaker 2: But given Petrobrass's state backed are we also going to

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Speaker 2: see a new climate plan from your state backed oil company.

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Speaker 1: Ah, that's a good question. Let's talk to Peter Brass together.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for coming on the show.

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Speaker 3: Thank you very much, thank you for listening to zero.

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Speaker 2: And now for the sound of the week. This is

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00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:04,959
Speaker 2: this sound of cop. Every year, almost always, there is

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Speaker 2: wooden flooring newly put to turn something into a cop

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Speaker 2: venue and have thousands and thousands of people walk across it,

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00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 2: making this drumbeat of a noise that's the sound of

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00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 2: the footsteps inside the Bako Olympic Stadium, the drumbeat.

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Speaker 3: That dictates the pace of negotiations.

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Speaker 2: If you liked this episode, please take a moment to

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Speaker 3: Brazil in twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: You can get in touch at zero Pod at bloomberg

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Speaker 2: dot net. Zero's producer is might Lee Row. Bloomberg's head

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