WEBVTT - May Prepares to Trigger Brexit, Begins Countdown (Audio) 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:03.720 Tomorrow in Brussels, Sir Tim Barrow, the UK's representative there, 0:00:03.760 --> 0:00:07.200 will hand deliver a letter to European Council President Donald Tusk. 0:00:07.800 --> 0:00:10.440 It will declare that Brexit has begun and it will 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:13.119 open a two year negotiation window over the terms of 0:00:13.119 --> 0:00:15.600 the withdrawal. The letter could also set the tone for 0:00:15.640 --> 0:00:19.000 what could be rather contentious talks in January. May warn 0:00:19.079 --> 0:00:22.000 the EU that quote no deal for Britain is better 0:00:22.040 --> 0:00:24.880 than a bad deal. Whether us to discuss what we 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.200 should be looking for tomorrow and in the coming months 0:00:27.520 --> 0:00:30.640 is Katherine Bernhard, Professor at the University of Cambridge School 0:00:30.680 --> 0:00:33.560 of Law. Katherine, thank you for joining us um tell 0:00:33.640 --> 0:00:36.280 us what we know about what this letter will say, 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:40.199 and perhaps more importantly, what what don't we know yet? Well, 0:00:40.200 --> 0:00:42.320 actually we don't know a great deal, with the content 0:00:42.400 --> 0:00:45.520 of the letters being kept secret, but it's thought likely 0:00:45.560 --> 0:00:48.360 to contain more than the simple words we're off. It's 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:52.840 thought likely to contain some of the UK's negotiating position, 0:00:52.880 --> 0:00:54.920 what it would like to get out of the negotiations 0:00:55.120 --> 0:00:58.480 with the European Union. But that's pretty much all we 0:00:58.520 --> 0:01:02.320 do know. But what we from the Article fifty itself 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:06.520 is Tomorrow will be the day that Article fifty gets triggered, 0:01:06.680 --> 0:01:09.800 and that starts the clock ticking, and the clock will 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:12.520 run down till the end of the two year period, 0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:16.480 which will take us toy of March nineteen, and the 0:01:16.600 --> 0:01:18.840 UK will be out of the European Union on the 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:23.920 twenty March. Katherine, there is only a draft of the 0:01:23.959 --> 0:01:28.600 e USE negotiating guidelines. When will that be finalized? And 0:01:28.720 --> 0:01:32.240 as the UK have any say in that? No, the 0:01:32.280 --> 0:01:36.360 UK won't have any say. It's for the European Council, 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:39.560 which is the heads of state of the other twenty 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:43.440 seven member states. It's likely that the guidelines guidelines will 0:01:43.480 --> 0:01:47.080 be available quite soon. Um, they've already, as you say, 0:01:47.160 --> 0:01:52.000 being drafted. And what happens next is that these guidelines 0:01:52.040 --> 0:01:55.920 will be discussed by the seven. There's going to be 0:01:55.920 --> 0:01:59.080 a summit in June where the UK and the EU 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:03.000 will meet to negotiate how to negotiate, and then the 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:09.679 substantive negotiations themselves won't start until the end of September seventeen, 0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:12.600 So in fact there's going to be a rather quiet 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:16.160 period um, at least publicly them no doubt, will be 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:18.240 discussions going on behind the scenes, but there'll be a 0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:21.400 quiet period because the USE made it clear that no 0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:26.440 negotiations will occur until after the French elections, and the 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:30.960 French elections are end of April. Startup, May, Catherine, What 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:34.160 don't we think or what do you think that Theresa 0:02:34.240 --> 0:02:37.080 May is going to be pushing for in particular when 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:42.760 these talks began, Well, there are two separate issues. One 0:02:42.880 --> 0:02:45.240 is the question of the divorce, which is covered by 0:02:45.320 --> 0:02:49.760 Article fifty, and then the second issue is the future 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:53.959 deal between the UK and the EU. Now, Theresa May 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:59.920 and her government want the two issues to be negotiated simultaneously. However, 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:04.800 the EU says they should be done sequentially, and the 0:03:04.919 --> 0:03:09.600 law tends to favor the EUS position because strictly speaking, 0:03:10.040 --> 0:03:15.000 any future deal that the UK entered into cannot be 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:18.480 negotiated until it's a third country. A third country is 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:21.760 EU jargon for not being a member state of the EU. 0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:23.800 And of course, if there was goodwill on both sides, 0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:28.080 it would be perfect perfectly possible for a degree of 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:33.000 simultane its simultaneity either two being negotiated at the same time. 0:03:33.400 --> 0:03:35.920 But the moment the EU is holding hard and saying 0:03:36.080 --> 0:03:40.440 divorce first, then future deal does the EU have the 0:03:40.520 --> 0:03:48.200 stronger hand here, Yes, because the EU knows that once 0:03:48.440 --> 0:03:52.000 Article fifty has been triggered, the clock will start running 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:56.840 down and therefore the power very much shifts to the EU. 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:59.760 That if the EU doesn't cooperate and takes things that 0:03:59.840 --> 0:04:03.680 have very leisurely paced, eventually there will be a rush 0:04:03.920 --> 0:04:07.280 up until the end of the two year period to 0:04:07.360 --> 0:04:10.320 get some sort of deal. And in anticipation of this, 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:14.480 Theresa May has said that no deal is better than 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:17.359 a bad deal, and that's because she doesn't want to 0:04:17.400 --> 0:04:21.520 be essentially having a metaphorical gun held off against her 0:04:21.560 --> 0:04:25.960 head come March, being forced to sign a deal which 0:04:26.000 --> 0:04:28.440 is not in the UK's interest. But the way Article 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:31.360 fifty structure is very much puts the boot on the 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:34.839 EU's foot. Kather, we only have about thirty seconds, but 0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:37.640 maybe you can tell ask what will the euse priorities 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:43.080 be in these stocks money money number one? And sorting 0:04:43.080 --> 0:04:46.039 out the rights of EU citizens in the UK and 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:50.880 British citizens in the EU number two. Okay, I want 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:53.840 to thank our guest Katherine Barner, and she's a professor 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:57.720 at the University of Cambridge School of Law, filling us 0:04:57.760 --> 0:05:00.560 in on the latest developments on Brexit and explaining to 0:05:00.640 --> 0:05:03.359 us what might be coming next. It sounds like we 0:05:03.400 --> 0:05:06.240 are going to be quite fixated on Brexit and the 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:10.400 negotiation process over the next couple of years, because when 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:14.760 Theresa May's representative delivers that letter tomorrow, that will trigger 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:18.320 a two year window for negotiations with the EU on 0:05:18.480 --> 0:05:24.240 exactly how it's gonna look when Britain exits the EU. Okay, 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:27.400 coming up on Bloomberg law, the Attorney General says he's 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:30.279 going to crack down on sanctuary cities. He's saying they're 0:05:30.320 --> 0:05:35.640 not doing enough to help federal officials deport illegal and 0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:36.720 criminal aliens.