WEBVTT - Putin is Playing Us.  Mike Lyons Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>The Armstrong and Getty shows. For some people here, the

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<v Speaker 1>war has already begun. Showing in the east, where Ukrainian

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<v Speaker 1>soldiers opposed Russian back separatists is increased with two Ukrainian

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<v Speaker 1>soldiers killed. Saturday, separatist leaders ordered an evacuation with a

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<v Speaker 1>dubious warning that Ukraine surrounded by a hundred ninety thousand

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<v Speaker 1>Russian soldiers plans to attack and we're taking enough food

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<v Speaker 1>for one day. She says, we don't know when we'll

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<v Speaker 1>be back. How was yesterday news this morning Russia reporting

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<v Speaker 1>that they killed five Ukrainian soldiers that had crossed the

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<v Speaker 1>border to attack Russians. I have my doubts. Also, a

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<v Speaker 1>Putin has called an emergency meeting of officials on whether

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<v Speaker 1>or not they should de glare various regions of Ukraine independent,

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<v Speaker 1>and just moments ago, a couple of separatist leaders appeared

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<v Speaker 1>on television asking Putin to recognize the independence of their territories.

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<v Speaker 1>A couple of it look like uh, thugs and suits,

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<v Speaker 1>saying we are I want to be president of new

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<v Speaker 1>independent what you might call it, and that charming Yeah. Exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>After graduating from West Point, Mike Lyons had a distinguished

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<v Speaker 1>career in the United States Military award the Bronze Star

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<v Speaker 1>for his actions in combat, and is a well respected

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<v Speaker 1>and loved around here military analyst. Mike, welcome, How are you, sir?

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<v Speaker 1>Hey when guys, great to be back with you. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>has it started? Well, we know when it started? Is

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<v Speaker 1>this the start? Yeah? I think so. I mean usually

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<v Speaker 1>artillery starts these kinds of combats and these kinds of conflicts,

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<v Speaker 1>and I you know, we could We're sitting there. We

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<v Speaker 1>got this report over the weekend about how the commanders

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<v Speaker 1>on the front have got their orders and the like.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we're just ignoring all principles of war about

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<v Speaker 1>surprise or or or or the like. Um. But from

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<v Speaker 1>from bradmar Putin's respect, if he controls everything on the

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<v Speaker 1>ground there, so I think from all practical purposes that

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<v Speaker 1>has and in his eyes, and this is just a

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<v Speaker 1>way of extending it out before the rest of the

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<v Speaker 1>world recognizes it. I think that's really what this is

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<v Speaker 1>all about. As he's just controlled the narrative from top

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<v Speaker 1>to bottom. We saw yesterday, Um, we couldn't get out

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<v Speaker 1>this press really is fast enough about how Joe Biden

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<v Speaker 1>is going to meet with him you don't know where

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<v Speaker 1>or when or whatever. And then all of a sudden

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<v Speaker 1>this morning that that's been canceled for I think, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean the Russian um uh communicate says we're not so

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<v Speaker 1>fast on that. So so I I do think that

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<v Speaker 1>now at the Olympics over, you're going to see a

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<v Speaker 1>lot more stepping up. But from from my perspective on

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening on the ground, this is this has already started.

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<v Speaker 1>What's interesting while watching this unfold in real time, and

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<v Speaker 1>it's so reminiscent of various similar incidents in history, is

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<v Speaker 1>that it's not clear at all what Putin's goals are.

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<v Speaker 1>Does he want a little? Does he want a lot?

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<v Speaker 1>You know? And that's part of the way expansionists keep

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<v Speaker 1>those would intervene, you know, off off balance. I guess

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<v Speaker 1>I think he wants a lot. I think that he

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<v Speaker 1>the kind of forces he's gathered there means he wants

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<v Speaker 1>a lot. I think that um, he's going to have

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<v Speaker 1>that capability, especially to the north and Belarus, and and

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that he can easily close off the boundary

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<v Speaker 1>of western Ukraine. UM. But this is going to be

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<v Speaker 1>more than just a boundary. The physical boundary that exists

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<v Speaker 1>on the ground, it's gonna be a cyber it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be all the infrastructure, it's going to be the

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<v Speaker 1>things that the controls there. Um to take a look

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<v Speaker 1>at the amount of pipelines that run through Ukraine from

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<v Speaker 1>from Russia that he's going to have to strategically get

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<v Speaker 1>a hold of right away. I also think that that

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<v Speaker 1>he doesn't want to destroy Ukraine to take and I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's why he's proceeding very carefully. Um, when he

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<v Speaker 1>does finally launched, let's say, a larger attack where it's

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<v Speaker 1>more obvious to people already here we go things a wrong.

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<v Speaker 1>He's going to really go after the Ukraine military and

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<v Speaker 1>in their bases and places that are likely away from

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<v Speaker 1>built up areaus, knowing full well that the Ukraine military

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<v Speaker 1>is guarding important things, but for all practical purposes, again,

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to be a target in this whole thing. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that was the reporting CBS had yesterday that that he

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<v Speaker 1>has so many troops because he wants to occupy the country.

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<v Speaker 1>He doesn't want to destroy it. He wants to have

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<v Speaker 1>a working, you know, economic asset of a country to

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<v Speaker 1>be running. Yeah, it looks like right now this is

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<v Speaker 1>going the way of you know, we could do this harder,

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<v Speaker 1>we could do this easy, and um, you saw over

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<v Speaker 1>the weekend also the Zalinski, the the Ukraine minister basically

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<v Speaker 1>challenged the West, saying, you guys have all these sanctions,

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<v Speaker 1>you won't tell me what they are and you won't

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<v Speaker 1>start them in place. Now you know he's bombing me

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<v Speaker 1>right now and you guys are aren't doing anything. And

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<v Speaker 1>you know we sent our crack vice president over there

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<v Speaker 1>to make a statement or two about something about something.

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<v Speaker 1>But again, this he letter of Putin runs this whole

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<v Speaker 1>thing top to bottom, and um, we have to be careful.

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<v Speaker 1>I also think about looking for transactions on a daily

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<v Speaker 1>basis of of you know, one thing is going to

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<v Speaker 1>happen that's gonna cause some something else. And that's because

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<v Speaker 1>if you just look back at it, he's been planning

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<v Speaker 1>this for the last eight months. The amount of troops

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<v Speaker 1>that are there, the amount of seeds that have been planted,

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<v Speaker 1>the amount of things that he's done over the past

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<v Speaker 1>eight nine months, go back from the past fourteen years.

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<v Speaker 1>This has been going. This has been a long time coming,

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<v Speaker 1>which is why he's just not gonna all of a

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<v Speaker 1>sudden pull the plug and saying that forget it, We're

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<v Speaker 1>not going to do it. So here's something you know

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<v Speaker 1>a lot about. We have been the dominant military force

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<v Speaker 1>rolling into a smaller country and you know, and you

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<v Speaker 1>would think, Okay, we're just gonna roll them over and

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<v Speaker 1>take it over. But then you have, you know, a

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<v Speaker 1>whole bunch of people that are really unhappy that you're

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<v Speaker 1>there shooting that yeah and bomby alongside the road for

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<v Speaker 1>years to come. Is that what Putin's looking at. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's one of the the terns. There's there's two

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<v Speaker 1>of them. He's got that one an insurgency that could

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<v Speaker 1>take place, knowing that we would try to fund that

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<v Speaker 1>and supply weapons to those people if we can get them.

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<v Speaker 1>This is why he has to steal that border. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think that second thing is that the terns

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<v Speaker 1>of the fact that the Ukraine military you can inflict

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<v Speaker 1>some damage on Russian troops and sending a bunch of

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<v Speaker 1>Russian body bags back the other direction is not going

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<v Speaker 1>to go well with Russian people. Um this and say,

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<v Speaker 1>since let's say the sanctions do work and they do

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<v Speaker 1>somewhat strangle off the Russian economy and Russian people feel it,

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<v Speaker 1>so there's there's still there's slight bits of the terrence

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<v Speaker 1>still left, which is why I think he's trying to

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<v Speaker 1>squeeze this thing out to make it more of a

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<v Speaker 1>fate to complete, because he really doesn't want to go

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<v Speaker 1>full force a hundred ninety thousand troops occupying there. But

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<v Speaker 1>the other thing is these things never go as intended.

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<v Speaker 1>Look at look at the Gulf, will go back to that.

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm saying, never thought that the United States would

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<v Speaker 1>do anything, never thought the United States would put an

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<v Speaker 1>ally together like we did, and never thought we would

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<v Speaker 1>finally do anything, and look what happened there. There's so

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<v Speaker 1>many examples in history of where things once the shooting starts.

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<v Speaker 1>It's that whole Mike Tyson thing. If you know, everyone's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna plan to get punts in the face, and once

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<v Speaker 1>the shooting starts on the earnest on both sides, he's

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<v Speaker 1>going to lose control of the initiative at that point.

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<v Speaker 1>Military analyst Mike Lyons is on the line this is

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<v Speaker 1>less military and more diplomatic. But I don't think it's

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<v Speaker 1>coincidence at all that She of China and Putin signed

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<v Speaker 1>this gigantic new were best Buddies agreement on the eve

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<v Speaker 1>of this happening. How important is China being willing to

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<v Speaker 1>bail rush out economically? Yeah, I think is the backstop

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<v Speaker 1>is the net that he wanted in order to uh

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<v Speaker 1>feel more confident that if he does this that at

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<v Speaker 1>least they'll stay out of it. They won't say anything,

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<v Speaker 1>let's say, but they'll also provide that economic support in

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<v Speaker 1>the background. He'll lose some some energy exports over the

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<v Speaker 1>next few months, let's say. Um, And you know, now

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing this alliance between Russia, China, Iran North Korea

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<v Speaker 1>that could contentstionally take place. And you know, here we

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<v Speaker 1>go back to the future. We're back to having this

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<v Speaker 1>these two poles again. The United States, it's done really

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<v Speaker 1>a terrible job the past thirty years. All administrations to

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<v Speaker 1>be blamed for this and not keeping together these certain alliances,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think. I think, um, the last you know

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<v Speaker 1>what the last administration tried to do with NATO to

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<v Speaker 1>pony at money to figure out how we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>get along was important. I think this administration is just

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<v Speaker 1>still a day later dollar stort. When he got up

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<v Speaker 1>there last week and said this alliance is really strong

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<v Speaker 1>you see that Macron has been there to negotiate separately,

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<v Speaker 1>that the UK have in there to negotiate separately. We're

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<v Speaker 1>not really speaking with one voice. And you know, once again,

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<v Speaker 1>once things become more evident that he's rolled. I think

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<v Speaker 1>that you know that you're not going to see a

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<v Speaker 1>united front. Sometimes you don't recognize something as bad has

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<v Speaker 1>happened until it's already over. Um, is the world about

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<v Speaker 1>to wake up here in the next couple of days,

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of weeks, whatever, and just and everybody recognized, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>the world is just we have a completely different world

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<v Speaker 1>order going on than we've had for the last many decades. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>that's it's gonna be that tipping point that we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>it happening often times. I mean, maybe we'll stop inviting

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<v Speaker 1>Vladimir Putin to Davos and stop inviting him to you know,

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<v Speaker 1>conferences and let him talk. You know, maybe we'll treat

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<v Speaker 1>him like the thug and the dictator and he is

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<v Speaker 1>and how you know, maybe that will happen. I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>sure we we we can't seem to help ourselves though

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<v Speaker 1>with this in terms of it's always about the money,

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<v Speaker 1>it's always about economics, and I still sake my head.

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<v Speaker 1>How does Germany shut down all their nuclear power plants

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<v Speaker 1>and decide to outsource their energy to Russia and knowing

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<v Speaker 1>full well that you know, this is who they're outsourcing

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<v Speaker 1>it to, even as we give away our energy and dependence,

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<v Speaker 1>which makes me nuts. But uh, my final question, just

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<v Speaker 1>as a devil's advocate, maybe a question given especially the

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<v Speaker 1>Russian experience in w W two, horrific losses, the rest

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<v Speaker 1>of it, Russia has a fair amount of you could

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<v Speaker 1>call a paranoia or just concern about invasion. Was there

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<v Speaker 1>a way maybe, is there a way to to grant

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<v Speaker 1>putin security assurances enough to settle this down? That's a

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<v Speaker 1>great question. I don't think at this point he'll believe them.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's what we're talking about here. And even

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<v Speaker 1>if we said, you know, you can, won't be in NATO,

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to be that peace in our time. Analogy

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<v Speaker 1>we're all looking for. What's the historical analogy here? You've

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<v Speaker 1>got the analogy of what happened in the Middle East

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<v Speaker 1>in the in the sixties and seventies, of the ar

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<v Speaker 1>countries coming to the Israeli border threatened war. That lots

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<v Speaker 1>what this is to me more. But I think I

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<v Speaker 1>think anything else like that as appeasement, because um, there's

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<v Speaker 1>no way Ukraine ever is in NATO. The Germans wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>go for it, the Turks wouldn't go for it, So

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<v Speaker 1>it's not going to happen. But we're not going to

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<v Speaker 1>say that quite part out loud, um And I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think he's gonna believe it at this point. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think for all practical purposes, he and he wants to

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<v Speaker 1>get that that former Soviet Union and restore that power.

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<v Speaker 1>They try to get that economic, um, both that he'll

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<v Speaker 1>get when he takes over this country. Military analyst Major

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<v Speaker 1>Mike Lions Mike, I hope we can stay in touch.

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<v Speaker 1>Whatever unfolds, it's going to be significant, I think so,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks guys. Yeah, I agree it's going to be It's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna be significant. Yeah, which is a gross understatement, but

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<v Speaker 1>there you have it, Thanks Mike. A very serious sounding

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<v Speaker 1>my clients there. So CBS is reporting s Day with

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<v Speaker 1>David Martin. I believe he was the first one that

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<v Speaker 1>reported that um Russian military leaders had been given the

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<v Speaker 1>go ahead to start and he also reported that Russia

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<v Speaker 1>is planning a shock and awe campaign similar to what

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<v Speaker 1>we did to Baghdad when we went in. And it's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna start with cyber and then they're just gonna light

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<v Speaker 1>up the sky, bombing the crap out of stuff. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's where I heard that. The reason they have

0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:16.480
<v Speaker 1>a hundred troops and then they want to occupy the

0:11:16.520 --> 0:11:19.240
<v Speaker 1>place quickly and have a you know, a functioning state.

0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:21.040
<v Speaker 1>They don't want to destroy the country. They want to

0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:26.520
<v Speaker 1>run the country. Right. Um, but Jake Sullivan are Secretary

0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:31.200
<v Speaker 1>of State. No, it's a national security advisor. Just a

0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:36.280
<v Speaker 1>moment ago, uh said this. Um, Russia is planning an

0:11:36.280 --> 0:11:40.880
<v Speaker 1>extremely violent operation to crush Ukraine. So I don't know,

0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:42.480
<v Speaker 1>I don't know how you can do shock and awe

0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:45.320
<v Speaker 1>and not destroy a hell of a lot of stuff. Well,

0:11:45.360 --> 0:11:47.600
<v Speaker 1>what I was picturing when Mike was talking Mike clients,

0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:53.080
<v Speaker 1>was that picturing the Russian military decimating you know, X

0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:58.000
<v Speaker 1>percent of the Ukrainian military in such short order that

0:11:58.160 --> 0:12:02.520
<v Speaker 1>everybody from military leadership to you civilian leadership says, all right,

0:12:02.720 --> 0:12:06.400
<v Speaker 1>this will be suicide if we don't come to some

0:12:06.520 --> 0:12:10.080
<v Speaker 1>sort of agreement see what Russia wants. Um, Well, we

0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:13.440
<v Speaker 1>won't sacrifice, you know, the young men of this country

0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:18.160
<v Speaker 1>in a need in a you know, useless mission, suicide mission,

0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:21.400
<v Speaker 1>and then you know, Putin gets a quote unquote political

0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:24.960
<v Speaker 1>settlement and installs his puppet regime and you know, a

0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:29.400
<v Speaker 1>hundred and fifty thousand lives are spared. Uh, that's probably

0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:33.040
<v Speaker 1>what he's hoping for. Just so overwhelming that they just say,

0:12:33.280 --> 0:12:37.839
<v Speaker 1>there's no point in trying to resist this, right exactly exactly,

0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:41.760
<v Speaker 1>I don't know stuff. A lot of people interviewed on

0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:43.400
<v Speaker 1>the street who say they're willing to fight to the

0:12:43.400 --> 0:12:48.439
<v Speaker 1>death for this, but we'll see that is grim as

0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:51.480
<v Speaker 1>I had like been saying all last week. Thank god,

0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:53.200
<v Speaker 1>every day you live in the United States, where there's

0:12:53.200 --> 0:12:56.880
<v Speaker 1>no freaking chance some country is gonna you know, roll

0:12:56.960 --> 0:13:00.640
<v Speaker 1>tanks in and take over. You're gonna have to like

0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:04.160
<v Speaker 1>get your hunting gun and hide behind bushes and see

0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:06.720
<v Speaker 1>how long you can last against trained soldiers to try

0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:08.960
<v Speaker 1>to defend your country. Thank god, you don't have to

0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:12.360
<v Speaker 1>do that. Yipes, yipes. And at the risk of driving

0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:15.360
<v Speaker 1>the point into the ground. When we gave away our

0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:21.960
<v Speaker 1>energy independence, we empowered Putin beyond. It's difficult to estimate

0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:27.040
<v Speaker 1>accurately how much more hand to quote Seinfeld, we gave Putin,

0:13:28.000 --> 0:13:33.280
<v Speaker 1>it's absolutely awful to appease the whackadoodle American environmental left,

0:13:34.080 --> 0:13:36.680
<v Speaker 1>farming out energy production to countries that are way worse

0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:40.480
<v Speaker 1>to the environment than we are. It's just insane. You

0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:44.280
<v Speaker 1>mentioned Seinfeld, speaking of Seinfeld, what I'm giving myself for

0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:48.679
<v Speaker 1>my birthday is related to Seinfeld, among a lot of

0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:50.640
<v Speaker 1>things we can talk about coming up our text line

0:13:50.640 --> 0:13:52.360
<v Speaker 1>four nine five k FDC