Speaker 1: The Armstrong and Getty shows. For some people here, the
Speaker 1: war has already begun. Showing in the east, where Ukrainian
Speaker 1: soldiers opposed Russian back separatists is increased with two Ukrainian
Speaker 1: soldiers killed. Saturday, separatist leaders ordered an evacuation with a
Speaker 1: dubious warning that Ukraine surrounded by a hundred ninety thousand
Speaker 1: Russian soldiers plans to attack and we're taking enough food
Speaker 1: for one day. She says, we don't know when we'll
Speaker 1: be back. How was yesterday news this morning Russia reporting
Speaker 1: that they killed five Ukrainian soldiers that had crossed the
Speaker 1: border to attack Russians. I have my doubts. Also, a
Speaker 1: Putin has called an emergency meeting of officials on whether
Speaker 1: or not they should de glare various regions of Ukraine independent,
Speaker 1: and just moments ago, a couple of separatist leaders appeared
Speaker 1: on television asking Putin to recognize the independence of their territories.
Speaker 1: A couple of it look like uh, thugs and suits,
Speaker 1: saying we are I want to be president of new
Speaker 1: independent what you might call it, and that charming Yeah. Exactly.
Speaker 1: After graduating from West Point, Mike Lyons had a distinguished
Speaker 1: career in the United States Military award the Bronze Star
Speaker 1: for his actions in combat, and is a well respected
Speaker 1: and loved around here military analyst. Mike, welcome, How are you, sir?
Speaker 1: Hey when guys, great to be back with you. Hey,
Speaker 1: has it started? Well, we know when it started? Is
Speaker 1: this the start? Yeah? I think so. I mean usually
Speaker 1: artillery starts these kinds of combats and these kinds of conflicts,
Speaker 1: and I you know, we could We're sitting there. We
Speaker 1: got this report over the weekend about how the commanders
Speaker 1: on the front have got their orders and the like.
Speaker 1: I mean, we're just ignoring all principles of war about
Speaker 1: surprise or or or or the like. Um. But from
Speaker 1: from bradmar Putin's respect, if he controls everything on the
Speaker 1: ground there, so I think from all practical purposes that
Speaker 1: has and in his eyes, and this is just a
Speaker 1: way of extending it out before the rest of the
Speaker 1: world recognizes it. I think that's really what this is
Speaker 1: all about. As he's just controlled the narrative from top
Speaker 1: to bottom. We saw yesterday, Um, we couldn't get out
Speaker 1: this press really is fast enough about how Joe Biden
Speaker 1: is going to meet with him you don't know where
Speaker 1: or when or whatever. And then all of a sudden
Speaker 1: this morning that that's been canceled for I think, I
Speaker 1: mean the Russian um uh communicate says we're not so
Speaker 1: fast on that. So so I I do think that
Speaker 1: now at the Olympics over, you're going to see a
Speaker 1: lot more stepping up. But from from my perspective on
Speaker 1: what's happening on the ground, this is this has already started.
Speaker 1: What's interesting while watching this unfold in real time, and
Speaker 1: it's so reminiscent of various similar incidents in history, is
Speaker 1: that it's not clear at all what Putin's goals are.
Speaker 1: Does he want a little? Does he want a lot?
Speaker 1: You know? And that's part of the way expansionists keep
Speaker 1: those would intervene, you know, off off balance. I guess
Speaker 1: I think he wants a lot. I think that he
Speaker 1: the kind of forces he's gathered there means he wants
Speaker 1: a lot. I think that um, he's going to have
Speaker 1: that capability, especially to the north and Belarus, and and
Speaker 1: the fact that he can easily close off the boundary
Speaker 1: of western Ukraine. UM. But this is going to be
Speaker 1: more than just a boundary. The physical boundary that exists
Speaker 1: on the ground, it's gonna be a cyber it's going
Speaker 1: to be all the infrastructure, it's going to be the
Speaker 1: things that the controls there. Um to take a look
Speaker 1: at the amount of pipelines that run through Ukraine from
Speaker 1: from Russia that he's going to have to strategically get
Speaker 1: a hold of right away. I also think that that
Speaker 1: he doesn't want to destroy Ukraine to take and I
Speaker 1: think that's why he's proceeding very carefully. Um, when he
Speaker 1: does finally launched, let's say, a larger attack where it's
Speaker 1: more obvious to people already here we go things a wrong.
Speaker 1: He's going to really go after the Ukraine military and
Speaker 1: in their bases and places that are likely away from
Speaker 1: built up areaus, knowing full well that the Ukraine military
Speaker 1: is guarding important things, but for all practical purposes, again,
Speaker 1: they're going to be a target in this whole thing. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that was the reporting CBS had yesterday that that he
Speaker 1: has so many troops because he wants to occupy the country.
Speaker 1: He doesn't want to destroy it. He wants to have
Speaker 1: a working, you know, economic asset of a country to
Speaker 1: be running. Yeah, it looks like right now this is
Speaker 1: going the way of you know, we could do this harder,
Speaker 1: we could do this easy, and um, you saw over
Speaker 1: the weekend also the Zalinski, the the Ukraine minister basically
Speaker 1: challenged the West, saying, you guys have all these sanctions,
Speaker 1: you won't tell me what they are and you won't
Speaker 1: start them in place. Now you know he's bombing me
Speaker 1: right now and you guys are aren't doing anything. And
Speaker 1: you know we sent our crack vice president over there
Speaker 1: to make a statement or two about something about something.
Speaker 1: But again, this he letter of Putin runs this whole
Speaker 1: thing top to bottom, and um, we have to be careful.
Speaker 1: I also think about looking for transactions on a daily
Speaker 1: basis of of you know, one thing is going to
Speaker 1: happen that's gonna cause some something else. And that's because
Speaker 1: if you just look back at it, he's been planning
Speaker 1: this for the last eight months. The amount of troops
Speaker 1: that are there, the amount of seeds that have been planted,
Speaker 1: the amount of things that he's done over the past
Speaker 1: eight nine months, go back from the past fourteen years.
Speaker 1: This has been going. This has been a long time coming,
Speaker 1: which is why he's just not gonna all of a
Speaker 1: sudden pull the plug and saying that forget it, We're
Speaker 1: not going to do it. So here's something you know
Speaker 1: a lot about. We have been the dominant military force
Speaker 1: rolling into a smaller country and you know, and you
Speaker 1: would think, Okay, we're just gonna roll them over and
Speaker 1: take it over. But then you have, you know, a
Speaker 1: whole bunch of people that are really unhappy that you're
Speaker 1: there shooting that yeah and bomby alongside the road for
Speaker 1: years to come. Is that what Putin's looking at. I
Speaker 1: think that's one of the the terns. There's there's two
Speaker 1: of them. He's got that one an insurgency that could
Speaker 1: take place, knowing that we would try to fund that
Speaker 1: and supply weapons to those people if we can get them.
Speaker 1: This is why he has to steal that border. Um.
Speaker 1: But I think that second thing is that the terns
Speaker 1: of the fact that the Ukraine military you can inflict
Speaker 1: some damage on Russian troops and sending a bunch of
Speaker 1: Russian body bags back the other direction is not going
Speaker 1: to go well with Russian people. Um this and say,
Speaker 1: since let's say the sanctions do work and they do
Speaker 1: somewhat strangle off the Russian economy and Russian people feel it,
Speaker 1: so there's there's still there's slight bits of the terrence
Speaker 1: still left, which is why I think he's trying to
Speaker 1: squeeze this thing out to make it more of a
Speaker 1: fate to complete, because he really doesn't want to go
Speaker 1: full force a hundred ninety thousand troops occupying there. But
Speaker 1: the other thing is these things never go as intended.
Speaker 1: Look at look at the Gulf, will go back to that.
Speaker 1: So I'm saying, never thought that the United States would
Speaker 1: do anything, never thought the United States would put an
Speaker 1: ally together like we did, and never thought we would
Speaker 1: finally do anything, and look what happened there. There's so
Speaker 1: many examples in history of where things once the shooting starts.
Speaker 1: It's that whole Mike Tyson thing. If you know, everyone's
Speaker 1: gonna plan to get punts in the face, and once
Speaker 1: the shooting starts on the earnest on both sides, he's
Speaker 1: going to lose control of the initiative at that point.
Speaker 1: Military analyst Mike Lyons is on the line this is
Speaker 1: less military and more diplomatic. But I don't think it's
Speaker 1: coincidence at all that She of China and Putin signed
Speaker 1: this gigantic new were best Buddies agreement on the eve
Speaker 1: of this happening. How important is China being willing to
Speaker 1: bail rush out economically? Yeah, I think is the backstop
Speaker 1: is the net that he wanted in order to uh
Speaker 1: feel more confident that if he does this that at
Speaker 1: least they'll stay out of it. They won't say anything,
Speaker 1: let's say, but they'll also provide that economic support in
Speaker 1: the background. He'll lose some some energy exports over the
Speaker 1: next few months, let's say. Um, And you know, now
Speaker 1: we're seeing this alliance between Russia, China, Iran North Korea
Speaker 1: that could contentstionally take place. And you know, here we
Speaker 1: go back to the future. We're back to having this
Speaker 1: these two poles again. The United States, it's done really
Speaker 1: a terrible job the past thirty years. All administrations to
Speaker 1: be blamed for this and not keeping together these certain alliances,
Speaker 1: I don't think. I think, um, the last you know
Speaker 1: what the last administration tried to do with NATO to
Speaker 1: pony at money to figure out how we're going to
Speaker 1: get along was important. I think this administration is just
Speaker 1: still a day later dollar stort. When he got up
Speaker 1: there last week and said this alliance is really strong
Speaker 1: you see that Macron has been there to negotiate separately,
Speaker 1: that the UK have in there to negotiate separately. We're
Speaker 1: not really speaking with one voice. And you know, once again,
Speaker 1: once things become more evident that he's rolled. I think
Speaker 1: that you know that you're not going to see a
Speaker 1: united front. Sometimes you don't recognize something as bad has
Speaker 1: happened until it's already over. Um, is the world about
Speaker 1: to wake up here in the next couple of days,
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks, whatever, and just and everybody recognized, Okay,
Speaker 1: the world is just we have a completely different world
Speaker 1: order going on than we've had for the last many decades. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's it's gonna be that tipping point that we've seen
Speaker 1: it happening often times. I mean, maybe we'll stop inviting
Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin to Davos and stop inviting him to you know,
Speaker 1: conferences and let him talk. You know, maybe we'll treat
Speaker 1: him like the thug and the dictator and he is
Speaker 1: and how you know, maybe that will happen. I'm not
Speaker 1: sure we we we can't seem to help ourselves though
Speaker 1: with this in terms of it's always about the money,
Speaker 1: it's always about economics, and I still sake my head.
Speaker 1: How does Germany shut down all their nuclear power plants
Speaker 1: and decide to outsource their energy to Russia and knowing
Speaker 1: full well that you know, this is who they're outsourcing
Speaker 1: it to, even as we give away our energy and dependence,
Speaker 1: which makes me nuts. But uh, my final question, just
Speaker 1: as a devil's advocate, maybe a question given especially the
Speaker 1: Russian experience in w W two, horrific losses, the rest
Speaker 1: of it, Russia has a fair amount of you could
Speaker 1: call a paranoia or just concern about invasion. Was there
Speaker 1: a way maybe, is there a way to to grant
Speaker 1: putin security assurances enough to settle this down? That's a
Speaker 1: great question. I don't think at this point he'll believe them.
Speaker 1: I think that's what we're talking about here. And even
Speaker 1: if we said, you know, you can, won't be in NATO,
Speaker 1: it's going to be that peace in our time. Analogy
Speaker 1: we're all looking for. What's the historical analogy here? You've
Speaker 1: got the analogy of what happened in the Middle East
Speaker 1: in the in the sixties and seventies, of the ar
Speaker 1: countries coming to the Israeli border threatened war. That lots
Speaker 1: what this is to me more. But I think I
Speaker 1: think anything else like that as appeasement, because um, there's
Speaker 1: no way Ukraine ever is in NATO. The Germans wouldn't
Speaker 1: go for it, the Turks wouldn't go for it, So
Speaker 1: it's not going to happen. But we're not going to
Speaker 1: say that quite part out loud, um And I don't
Speaker 1: think he's gonna believe it at this point. And I
Speaker 1: think for all practical purposes, he and he wants to
Speaker 1: get that that former Soviet Union and restore that power.
Speaker 1: They try to get that economic, um, both that he'll
Speaker 1: get when he takes over this country. Military analyst Major
Speaker 1: Mike Lions Mike, I hope we can stay in touch.
Speaker 1: Whatever unfolds, it's going to be significant, I think so,
Speaker 1: thanks guys. Yeah, I agree it's going to be It's
Speaker 1: gonna be significant. Yeah, which is a gross understatement, but
Speaker 1: there you have it, Thanks Mike. A very serious sounding
Speaker 1: my clients there. So CBS is reporting s Day with
Speaker 1: David Martin. I believe he was the first one that
Speaker 1: reported that um Russian military leaders had been given the
Speaker 1: go ahead to start and he also reported that Russia
Speaker 1: is planning a shock and awe campaign similar to what
Speaker 1: we did to Baghdad when we went in. And it's
Speaker 1: gonna start with cyber and then they're just gonna light
Speaker 1: up the sky, bombing the crap out of stuff. Um.
Speaker 1: And that's where I heard that. The reason they have
Speaker 1: a hundred troops and then they want to occupy the
Speaker 1: place quickly and have a you know, a functioning state.
Speaker 1: They don't want to destroy the country. They want to
Speaker 1: run the country. Right. Um, but Jake Sullivan are Secretary
Speaker 1: of State. No, it's a national security advisor. Just a
Speaker 1: moment ago, uh said this. Um, Russia is planning an
Speaker 1: extremely violent operation to crush Ukraine. So I don't know,
Speaker 1: I don't know how you can do shock and awe
Speaker 1: and not destroy a hell of a lot of stuff. Well,
Speaker 1: what I was picturing when Mike was talking Mike clients,
Speaker 1: was that picturing the Russian military decimating you know, X
Speaker 1: percent of the Ukrainian military in such short order that
Speaker 1: everybody from military leadership to you civilian leadership says, all right,
Speaker 1: this will be suicide if we don't come to some
Speaker 1: sort of agreement see what Russia wants. Um, Well, we
Speaker 1: won't sacrifice, you know, the young men of this country
Speaker 1: in a need in a you know, useless mission, suicide mission,
Speaker 1: and then you know, Putin gets a quote unquote political
Speaker 1: settlement and installs his puppet regime and you know, a
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand lives are spared. Uh, that's probably
Speaker 1: what he's hoping for. Just so overwhelming that they just say,
Speaker 1: there's no point in trying to resist this, right exactly exactly,
Speaker 1: I don't know stuff. A lot of people interviewed on
Speaker 1: the street who say they're willing to fight to the
Speaker 1: death for this, but we'll see that is grim as
Speaker 1: I had like been saying all last week. Thank god,
Speaker 1: every day you live in the United States, where there's
Speaker 1: no freaking chance some country is gonna you know, roll
Speaker 1: tanks in and take over. You're gonna have to like
Speaker 1: get your hunting gun and hide behind bushes and see
Speaker 1: how long you can last against trained soldiers to try
Speaker 1: to defend your country. Thank god, you don't have to
Speaker 1: do that. Yipes, yipes. And at the risk of driving
Speaker 1: the point into the ground. When we gave away our
Speaker 1: energy independence, we empowered Putin beyond. It's difficult to estimate
Speaker 1: accurately how much more hand to quote Seinfeld, we gave Putin,
Speaker 1: it's absolutely awful to appease the whackadoodle American environmental left,
Speaker 1: farming out energy production to countries that are way worse
Speaker 1: to the environment than we are. It's just insane. You
Speaker 1: mentioned Seinfeld, speaking of Seinfeld, what I'm giving myself for
Speaker 1: my birthday is related to Seinfeld, among a lot of
Speaker 1: things we can talk about coming up our text line
Speaker 1: four nine five k FDC