Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Bloomberg sound On. Not
Speaker 2: just any Monday. This is it the start of the
Speaker 2: last big push, last week of the year for Congress
Speaker 2: unless they start adding days to the schedule. The last
Speaker 2: train leaves the station at the end of this week.
Speaker 2: And we've been talking about some pretty big stuff that
Speaker 2: needs to get done around here, never mind funding the
Speaker 2: government with a shutdown possibly looming in January. I'm talking
Speaker 2: about Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and the big one of course,
Speaker 2: the lynchpin the border. So read the headline and Jonathan
Speaker 2: Tamari's column today at Bloomberg Government. Congress's final week is
Speaker 2: equal parts acrimony and compromise, and that is where we
Speaker 2: begin with Jonathan. It's good to see you reporting for
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Government and of course all things Capital Hill. Jonathan,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna get to all the deal making in a moment.
Speaker 2: We've got pretty important news though, and Voladim Rzelenski returning
Speaker 2: to the Capitol in person. He'll be here tomorrow, not
Speaker 2: only to meet with all of the Senators, which is
Speaker 2: a big enough deal, but he's gonna sit down one
Speaker 2: on one with Speaker Mike Johnson. Does it change anything
Speaker 2: in the end, this last minute pitch.
Speaker 3: I mean, certainly that's what he's hoping for, but it's
Speaker 3: more a factor of whether or not whether he's changing things,
Speaker 3: but how much has changed around him in Congress. The
Speaker 3: last time he addressed Congress, you know, there was almost
Speaker 3: universal support from both chambers, both parties, for aiding Ukraine.
Speaker 4: Helping them do.
Speaker 3: Congress trying to do almost anything they could do to
Speaker 3: support Ukraine in their fight against Russia. And now it's
Speaker 3: much much more divided. You know, House Republicans in particular
Speaker 3: are very skeptical of Ukraine aid. Senate Republicans support Ukraine aid,
Speaker 3: but they want it to be attached to tougher border policies.
Speaker 3: And so I think, more so than anything he might say,
Speaker 3: the issue is whether Democrats and the White House and
Speaker 3: Senate Republicans can get to a point where they agree
Speaker 3: on those border policies. And it's enough for the Republicans
Speaker 3: and it's something that Democrats can swallow. That's been the
Speaker 3: big hold up, and that's what we're all watching this week.
Speaker 2: He'll be speaking with all of the Senators, at least
Speaker 2: those who attend the All Senators meeting tomorrow morning at
Speaker 2: the invitation of Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell. This meeting
Speaker 2: with the Speaker, though, is interesting to me. He can
Speaker 2: talk to Joe Biden, Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer all day long.
Speaker 2: That won't really change the game here. Is this about
Speaker 2: President Zelenski speaking to Mike Johnson or is it going
Speaker 2: to be Mike Johnson also sending a message to President
Speaker 2: Zelenski that this is not going to come as easily anymore.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think that point has been made
Speaker 3: very clear. I think this is my interpretation is that
Speaker 3: this is Lenski trying to make one final push to
Speaker 3: the most important Republican in the House to say, listen,
Speaker 3: if we can get this aid through the Senate, trying
Speaker 3: to get those votes that he's going to need from
Speaker 3: the House to make it final, if they can get
Speaker 3: that done this week. Zelensky has always been the best
Speaker 3: advocate for his country. He's very skilled in public presentations,
Speaker 3: and so I think he's trying to close the deal.
Speaker 3: That is a very difficult deal for him right now.
Speaker 2: Well, you also can't really talk about Ukraine without mentioning Israel.
Speaker 2: The supplemental request from the White House included funding for both,
Speaker 2: along with Taiwan and the border. This has since broken
Speaker 2: down into slightly more complex and a lot more complex
Speaker 2: situation as we approach these one by one. Jonathan Tamari,
Speaker 2: Where Israeli funding here? We're talking a lot about the border,
Speaker 2: unlocking money for Ukraine, But if you ask Mike Johnson,
Speaker 2: those are separate bills that would come to the floor
Speaker 2: at different times. Right.
Speaker 3: Yes, that is his plan, and in fact, the House
Speaker 3: has passed aid to Israel on its own already a
Speaker 3: couple weeks ago. Now, the thing is that was attached
Speaker 3: to big cuts to the irs, which Democrats say is
Speaker 3: a non starter. And Democrats want to pair all these
Speaker 3: things together. They say they're all in our national security
Speaker 3: interest and that the Senate is not going to move
Speaker 3: any of these individually.
Speaker 5: The House would disagree with that.
Speaker 3: I think the fact Democrats certainly want to keep Israel
Speaker 3: need in the package is something of a sweetener for
Speaker 3: those Republicans even if they're not maybe fully satisfied with
Speaker 3: the border provisions.
Speaker 4: If any get agreed.
Speaker 3: To that Israel can be something that still draws some
Speaker 3: Republican votes along.
Speaker 2: Well, there you have it. Then it's Monday. Will any
Speaker 2: of this get done by the end of the week, Jonathan.
Speaker 3: I think that's that is the million dollar question that
Speaker 3: we're all watching for. You know, I think it's a
Speaker 3: big challenge for the people who support Ukraine, you know,
Speaker 3: trying to tie this up with border funding. It's a
Speaker 3: big lift. Immigration has been, you know, one of the
Speaker 3: toughest issues in Congress for decades, and they're trying to
Speaker 3: close a deal here in a matter of days. The
Speaker 3: only thing I would say is that I think with
Speaker 3: bipartisan support for Ukraine, bipartisan support for Israel, there is
Speaker 3: potentially room for everybody to get something that they want
Speaker 3: and to get this over the line.
Speaker 5: But I think it's going to be a tough lift.
Speaker 3: I would say the odds are against it, but I
Speaker 3: would not say it's impossible at this point.
Speaker 2: Holding out hope with Jonathan Samari. Thank you, Jonathan. I
Speaker 2: know you've got a busy week ahead reporting for Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Government with us here to get things started on Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. As we turned
Speaker 2: to the situation in Israel now the IDF pushing further
Speaker 2: into southern Gaza, two hundred and fifty air strikes or
Speaker 2: certainly two hundred and fifty targets from the air pushing
Speaker 2: now thousands of Palestinians toward the border with Egypt, and
Speaker 2: questions now about where this is going to go. As
Speaker 2: we hear from the EU's top diplomat, Joseph Burrell, who
Speaker 2: says the situation in Gaza is catastrophic, apocalyptic, with destruction
Speaker 2: proportionally even greater, he says, than that which Germany experienced
Speaker 2: in World War Two. Reporting by AFP, As we add
Speaker 2: the voice now of Hadar Suskan, the president and CEO
Speaker 2: of Americans for Peace. Now he spent time in the
Speaker 2: IDF as Sergeant first class, and we've been looking forward
Speaker 2: to the conversation for some time, Hadar, since you were
Speaker 2: with us a couple of weeks ago. Thank you for
Speaker 2: coming back. I wonder your reaction to what we're hearing
Speaker 2: now from the EU's top diplomat versus Israel's goal to
Speaker 2: eliminate Hamas.
Speaker 6: Thanks Joe, I'm happy to be back here with you today. Look,
Speaker 6: there's no question that the situation in Gaza is catastrophic.
Speaker 6: We've all seen the pictures, We've all seen the videos.
Speaker 6: The question is, you know what can be done, and
Speaker 6: you say it Israel's goal of eliminating Hamas in Israel,
Speaker 6: there's an incredibly vibrant argument and we're seeing it here
Speaker 6: in Washington too, about whether that's even a real achievable goal.
Speaker 6: And you know, certainly everyone agrees Israel has the right
Speaker 6: to defend itself.
Speaker 7: Israel needed to.
Speaker 6: Respond to the atrocities that Hamas committed on October seventh,
Speaker 6: But that doesn't answer the question of what are the
Speaker 6: actual goals of this campaign?
Speaker 7: What are they trying to achieve?
Speaker 6: And you know, can it be done in any way
Speaker 6: that brings this conflict to a close sometime soon?
Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you. The fierce fighting comes with news
Speaker 2: from the IDF that Hamas is beginning to buckle. As
Speaker 2: I read in the Washington Post under the onslaught do
Speaker 2: we need then, as we talk about funding with strings
Speaker 2: attached to the International Humanitarian law and so forth, should
Speaker 2: the funding simply be attached to an endgame, an exit
Speaker 2: strategy here and basically how we define eliminating Hamas because
Speaker 2: there are many who argue that these strikes, the attacks
Speaker 2: by Israel against Gaza, is creating a whole new generation
Speaker 2: of Hamas fighters.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 6: Again, you know, Hamas is an institution, and it's also
Speaker 6: an idea. And I you know, stand firmly with the
Speaker 6: people of Israel that Hamas cannot be left in power
Speaker 6: in Gaza in a capacity to perpetrate future events like
Speaker 6: what they did on October seventh.
Speaker 7: Everybody agrees on that.
Speaker 6: But to say you're going to eliminate Hamas, I don't
Speaker 6: think anyone thinks is feasible. And so the Israeli government
Speaker 6: needs to determine what that goal is. They need to
Speaker 6: be clear and specific about real achievable military goals. And
Speaker 6: you know, on the question of aid, whether you're talking
Speaker 6: about the supplemental or aid to Israel overall, you know,
Speaker 6: I support aid to Israel, but I think, like all
Speaker 6: of our aid to every country, it should support US
Speaker 6: policy priorities and American value. And I think that's the
Speaker 6: debate right now around conditioning aid is making sure that
Speaker 6: the military aid that we give to Israel, and it
Speaker 6: is all military aid that it does support those US
Speaker 6: policies and values.
Speaker 2: I was struck by our conversation last time by the
Speaker 2: way in which you saw both sides of this story.
Speaker 2: Certainly as a former member of the IDF, it gives
Speaker 2: you some sympathy, some empathy for those troops or are
Speaker 2: going into very dangerous areas in Gaza, and that's been
Speaker 2: the impetus in many cases to strike from a distance,
Speaker 2: to strike from the air, which you tell Israel to
Speaker 2: send more boots on the ground to be more precise.
Speaker 6: Look, I am not the head of the IDF or
Speaker 6: a military strategist like you said, I do have some
Speaker 6: of that experience. You know, it's a really difficult balance.
Speaker 6: It is the job of the Israeli military to try
Speaker 6: to keep its soldiers and it's civilians safe. And obviously,
Speaker 6: you know bombing long distance is safer than sending troops
Speaker 6: into the ground in on the ground. But it's also
Speaker 6: evident that you can't achieve all of the goals, including
Speaker 6: what I think should be the top goal of this
Speaker 6: Israeli campaign, which is the returning, the return of the
Speaker 6: remaining hostages. Cannot be achieved through bombing, cannot be achieved
Speaker 6: through long distance attacks. You need to have troops on
Speaker 6: the ground if your effort is going to be to
Speaker 6: militarily rescue them as they have tried. What's been successful,
Speaker 6: of course, was when there was a ceasefire and an
Speaker 6: agreement to release the hostages.
Speaker 2: That brings us to the potential for another truce. And
Speaker 2: I wonder where your your thoughts are, because time is
Speaker 2: not going to help heal wounds here. There are more
Speaker 2: aggravated feelings and emotions on both sides of the of
Speaker 2: the line here. Do you think that was all we're
Speaker 2: going to get? Or could you see another week or
Speaker 2: two come out of this knowing that Hamas has its
Speaker 2: own reasons to seek a truce, so it can regroup.
Speaker 6: Like it can't be all we're going to get. Right,
Speaker 6: At some point, this war, this specific campaign is going
Speaker 6: to come to an end, and when it does, there'll
Speaker 6: still be Israelis there and there'll still be Palestinians there,
Speaker 6: and they're going to have to figure out how to live,
Speaker 6: if not together, then in proximity in a better way.
Speaker 6: And so there's the current hot button issues. There's again,
Speaker 6: as you said, the you know, incredible humanitarian crisis that's
Speaker 6: taking place in Gaza right now. You know, the death
Speaker 6: numbers keep climbing, not only from bombing, but now we're
Speaker 6: talking about deaths from disease, deaths from hunger, from lack
Speaker 6: of sanitation. So there's a huge crisis there that needs
Speaker 6: to be addressed imminently. And of course there are still
Speaker 6: the hostages there, and there's still rockets flying from Comas
Speaker 6: as well.
Speaker 7: It's not only Israel who's bombing.
Speaker 6: So you know, whether we're going to see that this
Speaker 6: week or next week or the next or the one
Speaker 6: after that, I don't know.
Speaker 7: I hope it is as soon as possible. I would
Speaker 7: like to see.
Speaker 6: You know, if what we can get is a temporary
Speaker 6: halt to release those hostages to allow more aid in,
Speaker 6: I think that would be a positive step, but it's
Speaker 6: only that step.
Speaker 7: Ultimately, there needs to be a ceasefire.
Speaker 6: There needs to be an end to this round of
Speaker 6: the conflict, and I hope that when we achieve that,
Speaker 6: when we get to that moment, it means the hostages
Speaker 6: that have been released, and it means that people in
Speaker 6: Gozla can start rebuilding their lives as well.
Speaker 2: Dar. I'm glad you can come back to talk to us.
Speaker 2: Saddar Suskan President's CEO Americans for Peace now former sergeant
Speaker 2: first class in the Israeli Defense Forces. Good to have
Speaker 2: your insights today. As we assemble our panel, Rick Davis
Speaker 2: and Jeanie Shanzino are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors, and
Speaker 2: we'll have time for everyone to be able to weigh
Speaker 2: in on this when it comes to Israel, Genie, after
Speaker 2: what you just heard from Kadar, it's pretty difficult to
Speaker 2: come to consensus in a conversation like this, with such
Speaker 2: a complex set of situations here on both sides. What's
Speaker 2: the view of Joe Biden when we hear about two
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty more strikes overnight, as any of the
Speaker 2: message from the White House being heard in Tel Aviv.
Speaker 8: It doesn't feel like it's being heard, and it's got
Speaker 8: to be deeply concerning. You know, look at the step
Speaker 8: we took just the other day on the UN resolution.
Speaker 8: The Biden administration is going to have to really think
Speaker 8: about this passive strategy that they've adopted, you know, to
Speaker 8: the point of your previous conversation, the reality is is
Speaker 8: our funding has to be conditioned on what is in
Speaker 8: the best entrance of US policy, what is within the
Speaker 8: international law, and of course the fact that Real seems
Speaker 8: not to be listening is problematic.
Speaker 2: All right, We'll have more time on this, as I
Speaker 2: mentioned with Genie and Rick, also the matter of Ukraine.
Speaker 2: With President Zelenski visiting Washington again this week. We'll see
Speaker 2: what happens to the debate on both and we'll air
Speaker 2: it out here next. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program
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Speaker 2: President Zelenski will be meeting tomorrow with Senators, with the
Speaker 2: new Speaker of the House and with President Biden. But
Speaker 2: he is already here today. The delegation from Ukraine is
Speaker 2: in the Capitol. In fact, he appeared alongside Lloyd Austin,
Speaker 2: the Secretary of Defense. President Zelenski speaking earlier to the
Speaker 2: National Defense University The real high stakes day, though, is tomorrow,
Speaker 2: as he finally gets in front of some of the
Speaker 2: very lawmakers who have been doubtful over the effort to
Speaker 2: continue funding Ukraine. Let's reassemble our panel. We have a
Speaker 2: lot to talk about today with Rick Davis and Genie
Speaker 2: Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors. We'll get back to the matter
Speaker 2: of Israel in a moment, Rick. This latest visit by
Speaker 2: President Zelenski comes thanks to an invite from not only
Speaker 2: the White House, but the leadership in the Senate. What
Speaker 2: happens when he gets in a room with the Speaker
Speaker 2: of the House. That's the real business at hand here,
Speaker 2: when he looks eye to eye with Mike Johnson, what
Speaker 2: should be the message.
Speaker 4: Well, I think, first.
Speaker 9: Of all, the atmospheric says, he's coming off of a
Speaker 9: very bad week. The collapse of his visit last week,
Speaker 9: or at least the visit virtually to the private briefing.
Speaker 9: The briefing itself collapsed through the fact that there was
Speaker 9: no new information being imparted. You can try the senator's
Speaker 9: time all you want, but if you ask him to
Speaker 9: go to a meeting where they don't learn anything, they're
Speaker 9: going to be pretty grumpy, and that's what you had
Speaker 9: at the end of last week, a real negative turn.
Speaker 9: So he's got to overcome that. He's got to build
Speaker 9: a relationship with the new speaker. He really doesn't have one,
Speaker 9: certainly not since Johnson's been elected Speaker, and he has
Speaker 9: to do it all in the context of trying to
Speaker 9: get something done in literally one week in order to
Speaker 9: try and preserve the funding that he needs to go
Speaker 9: into to extend the war into new year. So it's
Speaker 9: a monumental task and frankly one that I think all
Speaker 9: the cards are stacked against his success, which may actually
Speaker 9: be the blessing in disguise, because at this stage, you know,
Speaker 9: just being able to build that relationship with Johnson might
Speaker 9: be enough to preserve an option for next year funding.
Speaker 2: Well, of course we're not talking about Ukraine funding or
Speaker 2: apparently Israel funding without a deal on the border. And
Speaker 2: I want to get both of your takes on this,
Speaker 2: because we heard from both the lead negotiators the Democratic
Speaker 2: Republican Party, they both did the Sunday shows. Although we
Speaker 2: heard from James Langford the Republican of course, the senator
Speaker 2: here who's leading negotiations just outside the Capitol on the steps.
Speaker 2: He's coming into work today and he was on sea
Speaker 2: and I want to listen. I want you to listen
Speaker 2: to how close actually what Langford and Chris Murphy, the
Speaker 2: Democrat are saying. Here. Here's James Langford with see.
Speaker 10: You got a narrow majority in the House, we're in
Speaker 10: a minority in the Senate, and we don't have the
Speaker 10: White House on it. I mean, we don't have the
Speaker 10: pole position may have resolve this. We're not going to
Speaker 10: resolve every area dealing with border security, but based on
Speaker 10: right now what's happening along the border, we shouldn't just
Speaker 10: ignore it.
Speaker 2: Okay, We're not going to be able to resolve every
Speaker 2: area with regard to the border. That's the Republican lead
Speaker 2: of negotiations. Here's the Democrat on Meet the Press, Chris
Speaker 2: Murphy of Connecticut.
Speaker 11: Ukraine is running out of ammunition and if we don't
Speaker 11: solve this in the next few weeks, Vladimir Putin is
Speaker 11: going to have an opening and opening to march through
Speaker 11: the Ukrainian lines to make a move on Kiev, threatening
Speaker 11: all of Europe. So this has to be resolved right now,
Speaker 11: which is why Republicans have to be reasonable we are
Speaker 11: not going to solve the entire problem of immigration between
Speaker 11: now and the end of the year, but we can
Speaker 11: make a down payment.
Speaker 2: We're not going to solve the entire problem of immigration, Genie.
Speaker 2: It was almost word for word. Does that make you
Speaker 2: feel like we're getting more realistic about a compromise here
Speaker 2: or might get something done?
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, I think they both indicated over the
Speaker 8: weekend that progress was being made definitely better than they
Speaker 8: were the weekend before. One big concern in my mind
Speaker 8: was hearing Chris Murphy over the weekend saying the White
Speaker 8: House is going to get more engaged. It would seem
Speaker 8: to be given the timing that their height of engagement
Speaker 8: would have been like three years ago. So the idea
Speaker 8: that we're waiting for the last minute for them to
Speaker 8: come in in a heightened engagement is a bit troubling
Speaker 8: to me because time is certainly not on our side.
Speaker 8: But you know, on the opposite side, we did hear
Speaker 8: the President last week say that the White House was engaged,
Speaker 8: So getting some mixed signals on that is a little
Speaker 8: bit troubling. But you know, the reality is is this
Speaker 8: was always the downside of tying all these together was
Speaker 8: if one thing goes down, everything crumbles. So you know,
Speaker 8: we've got to hope they can keep all these balls
Speaker 8: in the air and keep this moving forward. And I
Speaker 8: think that the White House really has to jump on this.
Speaker 8: What I see as a gift by Republicans. The immigration
Speaker 8: issue is a loser for Democrats. They should be jumping
Speaker 8: on this, get it feel and claim success as soon
Speaker 8: as possible. I know that's easier said than done, but
Speaker 8: I think Biden's got to be out there pushing for
Speaker 8: a deal of any kind, even incremental on immigration.
Speaker 2: Rick, you just heard Langford and Murphy speaking about this.
Speaker 2: Dick Durbin, the number two Democrat in the Senate, had
Speaker 2: an interview from Guatemala, who's down there over the weekend
Speaker 2: looking into this issue, and he spoke with punch bowl quote,
Speaker 2: we cannot ignore the reality of the numbers and where
Speaker 2: they're coming from. We did not design the border policies
Speaker 2: for the volume of this nature. Unquote. You're hearing democrats,
Speaker 2: It sure sounds to me, Rick, indicate that they are
Speaker 2: ready to make a deal. Are we closer than we
Speaker 2: were a week ago?
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think we're closer. I mean, you know, everybody
Speaker 9: was talking about a week before last the death of
Speaker 9: these negotiations. Oh my god, they laughed and yeah, you know,
Speaker 9: they didn't finish anything, and they're still talking, and as
Speaker 9: you portrayed, it sounds like they're saying exactly the same
Speaker 9: thing I would say a little person.
Speaker 5: Deny's take.
Speaker 9: I think Biden should get involved, but he needs to
Speaker 9: talk to his Democrats. They're the ones who are saying
Speaker 9: no to a deal that Langford's got on the table.
Speaker 9: And so if Biden's smart, he's making sure that the
Speaker 9: Democrats in the Senate aren't being too tough in their negotiation.
Speaker 9: He needs a deal, no matter what that deal is,
Speaker 9: and he needs it worse than they do, and so
Speaker 9: I think that that could be a positive to actually
Speaker 9: get a deal done. He's not going to have any
Speaker 9: influence with Republicans, but he could have an impact with
Speaker 9: Democrats who might be standing in the way of a
Speaker 9: border deal.
Speaker 2: Interesting numbers here on funding for Ukraine, And to your point, Genie,
Speaker 2: this could be a gift for Joe Biden. It could
Speaker 2: be a gift in more ways than one. You take
Speaker 2: the border off the table in a campaign here and
Speaker 2: you overcome apparently pretty real opposition here at least real
Speaker 2: skepticism overfunding for Ukraine half of registered voters. This is
Speaker 2: a University of Michigan Ross School, a business poll. They
Speaker 2: did it with the Financial Times. Forty eight percent say
Speaker 2: the US is spending too much on aid for Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Sixty that's overall, sixty five percent of Republicans say too much,
Speaker 2: compared with fifty two percent of Independence and thirty two
Speaker 2: percent of Democrats. This is clearly an independent and Republican concern. Genie,
Speaker 2: So is this two gifts the Republican Congress could give
Speaker 2: Joe Biden?
Speaker 8: It is. But those numbers are so important because they
Speaker 8: underscore what Franklin Roosevelt told all leaders. You have to
Speaker 8: educate the public. When you are sending millions and billions
Speaker 8: of dollars somewhere else of people's hard earned money and
Speaker 8: they are suffering at home, you have an obligation to
Speaker 8: educate them on why it's in our interest to do that.
Speaker 8: And that is what needs to happen. It would be
Speaker 8: a disaster for the US from almost every perspective to
Speaker 8: walk away from Ukraine right now, and that is got
Speaker 8: to be said over and over. You can't say it enough.
Speaker 8: Otherwise the numbers that you just read will continue, and
Speaker 8: if Congress did support the funding, there would be questions
Speaker 8: and it would not look good for President Biden come
Speaker 8: twenty twenty four when people go to the polls. So educate, educate, educates,
Speaker 8: got to happen.
Speaker 2: Here, Rick, we've got a minute to the news. I
Speaker 2: just want to give you a chance to weigh in
Speaker 2: on the conversation that we were having earlier on the
Speaker 2: situation in Israel. So what extent is the Biden administration
Speaker 2: do you think or should be helping to call shots,
Speaker 2: helping to actually influence military strategy right now in Israel
Speaker 2: as it conducts its raids in Gaza.
Speaker 9: Well, I think that they are actively trying to weigh
Speaker 9: in on the death of civilians. Right There's nothing in
Speaker 9: it for the United States to use our money and
Speaker 9: weaponry to kill a lot of civilians in harm's way.
Speaker 9: There's no question there are collateral damage to this offensive
Speaker 9: by Israel, and we've been I think a positive force
Speaker 9: in trying to find ways for the Israelis to avoid
Speaker 9: those clashes.
Speaker 2: That being said, Israel has.
Speaker 9: Their battle plan. It's their battle plan, and they're going
Speaker 9: to execute it as they seem fit. And even though
Speaker 9: we are a reliable and important ally to them. I
Speaker 9: think they'll listen, but we can't dictate terms to them.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: And welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound On. We're
Speaker 2: back to Washington now, Kaylee linees at my side as
Speaker 2: we drive forward here on the fastest show in politics.
Speaker 2: I just don't know where we're driving. Yeah, we've been
Speaker 2: like winding up to this week for weeks. We added
Speaker 2: a border deal, we added a laddered cr We've got
Speaker 2: all kinds of stuff flying around here. No one has
Speaker 2: a path on anything apparently, but maybe that's just when
Speaker 2: news breaks. Kayley, I'm holding out hope.
Speaker 12: Well, I guess you can't rule it out right. Something
Speaker 12: could always happen in the next couple days before they
Speaker 12: head home for the holidays, assuming that they do as scheduled,
Speaker 12: head home at the end of this week, even if
Speaker 12: they haven't gotten much on the to do list done
Speaker 12: before doing so.
Speaker 2: That's right, We're going to talk to Mick mulvaney in
Speaker 2: just a moment. I'm gonna guess that. You know, he's
Speaker 2: probably listening to us right now and he thinks we're
Speaker 2: sounding pretty downbeat. I know Mick will lift our spirits,
Speaker 2: will he? If Jack Fitzpatrick does not? From Bloomberg Government, Jack,
Speaker 2: good to see you. This is your time. This is
Speaker 2: like Christmas morning for someone who covers appropriations. But will
Speaker 2: there be appropriations to cover? And are we really going
Speaker 2: home this week? Or the law makers get a letter
Speaker 2: in a couple of days saying and you're gonna work
Speaker 2: through weekend.
Speaker 13: I don't know when the holidays start, especially for the Senate.
Speaker 13: You've had this letter that came out last week from
Speaker 13: the White House saying your deadline to get a deal
Speaker 13: for Ukraine funding, which is locked up with these border talks,
Speaker 13: is the end of the calendar year. They're scheduled to
Speaker 13: leave December fifteenth. I'd be a little surprised if they
Speaker 13: left early. If they left on December fifteenth without a
Speaker 13: deal for Ukraine, having been told by the White House
Speaker 13: we absolutely need something this year, and it does not
Speaker 13: even if today is a good day, tomorrow is a
Speaker 13: good day in negotiations. It doesn't sound like they could
Speaker 13: actually pass something through both chambers even if there was
Speaker 13: a handshake deal.
Speaker 12: Now, well, that's what I was going to say, Jack.
Speaker 12: It's one thing. If the Senate agrees and can get
Speaker 12: it done, it then has to go to the House
Speaker 12: and be voted on by enough House Republicans who are
Speaker 12: many of whom are very resistant to the idea of
Speaker 12: further Ukraine Ukraine ad and would only like to see
Speaker 12: HR two essentially when it comes to border policy. So
Speaker 12: the reconciliation is difficult to see here.
Speaker 13: Yeah, the tougher part, I think is the border measures
Speaker 13: and the pressure that it could put on House Republican LEADLeadership.
Speaker 13: They've been pushed to say we want all of HR two,
Speaker 13: even if there are concessions there. You could get Democratic
Speaker 13: votes in a bipartisan deal that's going to get through
Speaker 13: the Senate. You can count on anything requiring Democratic support,
Speaker 13: so you don't need to get two hundred eighteen votes
Speaker 13: from Republicans. But the key question in the House is
Speaker 13: how much pressure does the Freedom Caucus put on Mike Johnson,
Speaker 13: the News Speaker. Does it get to the point where
Speaker 13: his stance as the leader of the conference is shakier
Speaker 13: if he doesn't get a really good deal on border measures.
Speaker 13: And that's the really tough stuff that there's still plenty
Speaker 13: of Republicans who are supportive of Ukraine, but it's the
Speaker 13: it's the quid pro quo that makes it complicated.
Speaker 2: The commentary that we're hearing though from both Chris Murphy
Speaker 2: and James Langford, it's kind of amazing. We cooked it
Speaker 2: down in the last hour. They're using word for word
Speaker 2: language that makes you wonder if maybe they're closer than
Speaker 2: it appears. I'll walk you through it. This is James
Speaker 2: Langford just a short time ago on CNN Mona Raj.
Speaker 2: You got him as he was coming up us.
Speaker 10: Our majority in the House, we're in a minority in
Speaker 10: the Senate, and we don't have the White House on it.
Speaker 10: I mean, you know, we don't have the pole position.
Speaker 10: May have resolve this. We're not going to resolve every
Speaker 10: area dealing with border security, but.
Speaker 2: We're not going to be able to resolve in every area.
Speaker 11: We solve this in the next few weeks, Chris murv
Speaker 11: Vlatimir Putin is going to have an opening and opening
Speaker 11: to march through the Ukrainian lines. To make a move
Speaker 11: on Keys, threatening all of Europe. So this has to
Speaker 11: be resolved right now, which is why Republicans have to
Speaker 11: be reasonable. We are not going to solve the entire
Speaker 11: problem of immigration between now and the end of the year,
Speaker 11: but we can make a down payment.
Speaker 2: They're basically saying the same thing, So are we going
Speaker 2: to get some form of immigration light here? We're not
Speaker 2: going to solve the entire problem, but here's what we've got.
Speaker 13: That is the focus. There's a lot of there's a
Speaker 13: real reality check from Senate Republicans, even h with regard
Speaker 13: to House republicans expectations. House Republicans are saying, we want
Speaker 13: everything that we passed in our partisan bill on the border.
Speaker 13: You heard James Langford, you may have heard last week
Speaker 13: Tom Tillis say they'll get what we send them. But
Speaker 13: it's still very difficult to get a deal in the Senate.
Speaker 13: The proposals that have been put forward, according to Chris
Speaker 13: Murphy from Republicans, are ones that would not get any
Speaker 13: Democratic support, let alone enough to get sixty votes in
Speaker 13: the Senate. And you do still have that political pressure
Speaker 13: on Mike Johnson. There could be a difference between the
Speaker 13: House Republican stance and the Senate Republican stance that makes
Speaker 13: it difficult to get something through.
Speaker 12: All right, I would say Jack sounded pretty downbeat there
Speaker 12: as well.
Speaker 2: Really optimist.
Speaker 12: Yeah, not upbeat, that's for sure, Jack Fitzpatrick of Bloomberg Government,
Speaker 12: thank you so much.
Speaker 2: As always, it's straight though, absolutely neutral beats.
Speaker 12: Perhaps should we get the beat from from Mick mulvaney,
Speaker 12: of course, a former congressman better not neutral himself, as
Speaker 12: our listeners know, we talk to him every Monday and
Speaker 12: we give the whole list of the resume. I'll skip that.
Speaker 12: Are we two down beat or are we appropriately down beat?
Speaker 12: What's your take here?
Speaker 4: I think you're appropriately downbeat?
Speaker 14: And keep in mind, and everybody knows this now that
Speaker 14: Washington is not going by any of the typical playbooks, right,
Speaker 14: so anybody says, oh, yeah, this is how it's gonna happen,
Speaker 14: this is how it's going to happen, this is how
Speaker 14: it's going to happen, just isn't paying attention because we're
Speaker 14: sort of off the rails when it comes to how
Speaker 14: Washington is functioning. So the best I think I can do,
Speaker 14: Keiley is give you some additional data points. Right number one.
Speaker 14: The whole idea behind this laddered CR, at least one
Speaker 14: of the ideas behind the laddered CR was to take
Speaker 14: the pressure off that traditionally exists before Christmas. Conservatives in
Speaker 14: the House really really hated it when leadership, even in
Speaker 14: their own party used the Christmas holidays to pressure them
Speaker 14: to do something. And I think you saw some creativity
Speaker 14: for Mike Johnson to move it beyond the funding issues now,
Speaker 14: beyond Christmas and get it into the new year.
Speaker 4: That was done for a reason.
Speaker 14: Okay, so factor that into whether or not something's going
Speaker 14: to get done right now.
Speaker 4: Also you put your yourself.
Speaker 14: Yes, the House says they want everything, and I get that,
Speaker 14: but they actually have passed something that not that something
Speaker 14: in Democrats like they passed something on foreign Aid and
Speaker 14: I think they defunded the IRS. I don't think they've
Speaker 14: done it. Then they passed HR two. At least they've
Speaker 14: passed something the Senate. While they say, look, you know
Speaker 14: that the House will take what the Senate can pass.
Speaker 14: What we said them, that's you know, that's that's not wrong.
Speaker 14: But that only becomes relevant once the Senate actually passes something.
Speaker 4: And as your man pointed, out. The Senate hasn't passed
Speaker 4: anything yet.
Speaker 14: It doesn't show any sort of willingness or at least
Speaker 14: ability in the next forty hours to pass something. So
Speaker 14: everything you've just heard is correct. From your guy in
Speaker 14: the him, I apologize, I can't remember his name. Everything
Speaker 14: you guys have mentioned is correct, and you take those
Speaker 14: other pieces and parts, and where do you get.
Speaker 4: I still get that nothing happens before Christmas.
Speaker 14: There's one other, one other factor the House members that
Speaker 14: the right wing of the Republican Party is not going
Speaker 14: to believe the Office of Management and Budget when it
Speaker 14: says Ukraine is going to run out of money by Christmas.
Speaker 14: They are going to perceive that, rightly or wrongly, as
Speaker 14: a manufactured deadline and sort of, oh, here we are again.
Speaker 14: It's the same old thing about using our vacation to
Speaker 14: get so you can discount that. So you put all
Speaker 14: that together, and I'm fairly downbeating get anything you've done
Speaker 14: this week. And I don't think they're staying past Saturday.
Speaker 2: What do you make of the in person pitch? President
Speaker 2: Zelenski here tomorrow is going to do the bilateral with
Speaker 2: Joe Biden in all senators meeting, I'll be curious to
Speaker 2: see how many Senators show up and at the invitation
Speaker 2: of Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer. Then he's got a
Speaker 2: one on one with Mike Johnson. Mick, I'd love to
Speaker 2: get your thoughts on both sides of this conversation, because
Speaker 2: President Zelenski knows what's going on. He knows this is
Speaker 2: tied to the border. He's heard the refrain. The White
Speaker 2: House is keeping him up to speed here, what does
Speaker 2: he tell the speaker? And maybe it's more important, what
Speaker 2: does the speaker have to tell him?
Speaker 14: Listen, Zelenski's the best salesman they have. There's no question
Speaker 14: about it. You have to take your head off to
Speaker 14: the guy. When I met him a couple of times
Speaker 14: in personalizing in the White House, I was not impressed.
Speaker 14: I had been thoroughly impressed with the way he's conducted
Speaker 14: himself since the Russian invasion. So he is their best
Speaker 14: sales when he's the right person to send here. I'm
Speaker 14: not sure what he says, Joe, because here's the question.
Speaker 14: I would ask, Okay, you ran out of you ran
Speaker 14: out of ammunition, and we sent you that and it
Speaker 14: did work. He ran out of money to run your government,
Speaker 14: and we sent you that and that's not working. Now
Speaker 14: you're running out of men. We're not going to send
Speaker 14: you any meant people. You're running out of men and
Speaker 14: women to fight this battle. We're not doing that. So
Speaker 14: your what is your plan? What comes next? Other than
Speaker 14: us writing you a blank check? And I know that's
Speaker 14: a derogatory term in some people's mind, and it certainly
Speaker 14: isn't mind. But what is the plan other than just
Speaker 14: asking us for more of the saying that hasn't worked
Speaker 14: so far. That's a really tough question to ask in
Speaker 14: a really tough question for him to answer. So again,
Speaker 14: he's the right person to do it, but there could
Speaker 14: be some very frank and very difficult conversations for him,
Speaker 14: the toughest questions he's had since he's been coming to
Speaker 14: Washington over the last two years.
Speaker 12: But make is this really about the plan or is
Speaker 12: this about the alternative, which is Russia getting its way
Speaker 12: in Ukraine. Isn't that much greater risk than maybe some
Speaker 12: money being used ineffectively?
Speaker 7: Yes and no, I.
Speaker 14: Guess the question is it's really hard to go home
Speaker 14: and tell people we spent another X number of dollars
Speaker 14: on Ukraine. They don't really have a plan, but we
Speaker 14: don't know what else to do. And by the way,
Speaker 14: we didn't get anything on the border. That doesn't sell well.
Speaker 14: In fact, that doesn't sell well, and even in some
Speaker 14: Democrat districts. Keep in mind, this whole border thing has
Speaker 14: morphed Cayley a little bit. I'm not trying to oversell this.
Speaker 14: I'm not trying to pick aside us. I'm biased, I'm
Speaker 14: a Republican and I get all that. But keep in mind,
Speaker 14: the border is now a topic that is crossing party lines.
Speaker 14: When you have the Democrat mayors in New York and
Speaker 14: Chicago and Washington, D C. And even secondary and tertiary
Speaker 14: cities complaining about border policies, it starts to sort of
Speaker 14: bleed over. It's no longer just a right wing conservative
Speaker 14: thing that pops up, say in a Republican primary. It's
Speaker 14: going to start to impact those swim districts. So it's
Speaker 14: really hard to go back and say, oh, yeah, we
Speaker 14: gave Ukraine money. We don't know what we gave it
Speaker 14: to him for what we did. To say we're doing
Speaker 14: something and we didn't do anything on the border that
Speaker 14: that's not a very tenable position for a lot of folks,
Speaker 14: not just Republicans.
Speaker 2: Well, so what needs to happen? When you hear Chris
Speaker 2: Murphy speaking open mindedly, the White House says it's open
Speaker 2: to refining asylum law, maybe enhancing the deportation process. Dick
Speaker 2: Durbin speaking today with the Tip Sheets this morning from Guatemala,
Speaker 2: he says, we cannot ignore the reality of the numbers
Speaker 2: and where they're coming from any longer. Mick, that feels
Speaker 2: like we're closer, not further away. Don't you think, Oh,
Speaker 2: it's a great point.
Speaker 14: And so let's let's let's let's move the chest pieces
Speaker 14: as to how do you get to a deal? Okay,
Speaker 14: the Senate passes something, anything right right now?
Speaker 4: Again, until the Senate passes anything, this is sort.
Speaker 14: Of your your you know, you're well, you're not making
Speaker 14: much progress, and use a derogatory sort of analogy, but
Speaker 14: you're not doing anything productive until the Senate passes something.
Speaker 14: The Senate passes somebody that puts a lot of pressure
Speaker 14: on the House. Uh, and maybe that's when you start
Speaker 14: to have those conversations. But okay, boys and girls, we
Speaker 14: can't get all of HR two, but we can get
Speaker 14: a sodom reform. We can get some maybe return to Mexico.
Speaker 14: I don't know, pick something out of it. We're not
Speaker 14: going to get everything. That's where that language that you
Speaker 14: just heard James Langford use about we're not going to
Speaker 14: get everything.
Speaker 4: Keeping in mind, James, though.
Speaker 14: A good House member is now a senator runs every
Speaker 14: six years, not every two. But yet that dynamic starts
Speaker 14: to come into focus. So if you want to imagine
Speaker 14: how you get to an end result here, the Senate
Speaker 14: has to pass something, they go back to the House
Speaker 14: and they sort of meet in the middle. That's how
Speaker 14: you get something done. I just don't see that happening
Speaker 14: by Christmas.
Speaker 12: Yeah, it's definitely tough when we're speaking in terms of
Speaker 12: just days here. But nick to the point of what
Speaker 12: we've heard consistently from Senator Langford among them is the
Speaker 12: idea that HR two passed the House with absolutely no
Speaker 12: Democratic support. So, to paraphrase his words, essentially that it's
Speaker 12: unfair for the Senate to expect to get enough Democrats
Speaker 12: on board to pass something similarly, is that a reality
Speaker 12: that just frankly doesn't really matter to this House of Representatives.
Speaker 14: No, again, that's the negotiating language you're going to use right,
Speaker 14: and again there's going to be people in the House
Speaker 14: who don't want to negotiate on anything. Keep in mind,
Speaker 14: Matt Gates has already proved he's not there to try
Speaker 14: and solve any problem. So take the crazy folks out
Speaker 14: of the equation in the House. Again, does that raise
Speaker 14: an issue about Mike Johnson's viability, Yes, it does, But
Speaker 14: let's just focus on this issue at hand, that if
Speaker 14: you are a conservative, a normal conservative republic, and you're
Speaker 14: sort of the deciding votes and whether or not something
Speaker 14: can pass on a bipartisan basis in the House.
Speaker 4: Are you listening to James?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 14: I think you probably are you? Okay, Look, we get
Speaker 14: something here. We haven't got anything on immigration, especially on
Speaker 14: the Biden administration. We're having any really good legislation on
Speaker 14: immigration a long time. That could be I could sell
Speaker 14: that as a win in my conservative red district back
Speaker 14: in South Carolina.
Speaker 2: Nick, I've got to ask you about your former boss
Speaker 2: before you go away, because this dictator thing seems to
Speaker 2: be getting real. But then again, I don't know. Well, look,
Speaker 2: it seemed like we're normalizing the dictator thing. Now this
Speaker 2: is Donald Trump in New York over the weekend, Following
Speaker 2: his interview with Sean.
Speaker 15: Hann Baker today in The New York Times, he said
Speaker 15: that I want to be a dictator.
Speaker 4: I didn't say that.
Speaker 2: I said I want to.
Speaker 15: Be a dictator for one day. But the New York
Speaker 15: Times said, and you know why I wanted to be
Speaker 15: a dictator because I want a wall, right, I want
Speaker 15: a wall, and I want to drill rell drill.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: Well, wow, we won't get into whether he's built the wall,
Speaker 2: which he says, but is he doing this dictator thing
Speaker 2: just to get the media in a lather?
Speaker 14: Oh yeah, absolutely, that's exactly he's trolling.
Speaker 4: That's exactly. He's done that before, you know, and he'll
Speaker 4: do it again.
Speaker 14: He'll start talking about running in twenty twenty four and
Speaker 14: then again in twenty twenty eight. He knows how to
Speaker 14: play the media. He knows how to drive a media cycle.
Speaker 14: This is what he does. But you know, that's the
Speaker 14: first time I've heard that audio. I've seen it in
Speaker 14: print and so forth. But Joe, the thinking you out
Speaker 14: at me there, he sounds really really tired. That is
Speaker 14: that's not that's not the typical theories of the weather.
Speaker 14: We got a cold, or he's that doesn't sound that
Speaker 14: doesn't sound like Donald Trump to me.
Speaker 4: So and by the way, skip ahead. He also said
Speaker 4: something over the weekend. He went back to the Access
Speaker 4: Hollywood tape for the talking about a general.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I heard that. Oh, if there was only time
Speaker 2: to play all of this with Mick mulvaney. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: call you when they come after me. Mick. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 2: Last week for Congress to get anything done, at least
Speaker 2: that's what they say this Monday. We'll see if the
Speaker 2: schedule changes later in the week. You know, if we
Speaker 2: get some progress on a border deal, for instance, we
Speaker 2: could be working for the weekend and maybe into next week.
Speaker 2: Maybe we do creep up on Christmas. Anything is possible
Speaker 2: here in the Capitol. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington alongside
Speaker 2: Kaylee Lines. As we read the tea leaves on a
Speaker 2: possible border deal here Kaylee, knowing that President Zelenski will
Speaker 2: be here tomorrow. Yep, he's of course coming for the
Speaker 2: big ass the last to ditch ask on Ukraine funding.
Speaker 2: But that can't move until there is a deal on
Speaker 2: the border. And interesting to hear from Chris Murphy over
Speaker 2: the weekend, the Democratic lead negotiator that without any real
Speaker 2: progress happening on Capitol Hill, maybe it's time for the
Speaker 2: White House to start leaning in.
Speaker 12: Yeah, there's kind of three parties involved in these negotiations, really,
Speaker 12: they're Senate Democrats, Senate Republicans, and then the White House
Speaker 12: wish initiated this emergency funding request in the first place,
Speaker 12: including not only funding for Ukraine, but funding for the
Speaker 12: border as well. Money not necessarily policy changes, however, and
Speaker 12: I think that is wherein lies the rub when it's
Speaker 12: real policy changes that Republicans in Congress are looking for, and.
Speaker 2: The reporting at the end of last week, it sure
Speaker 2: seemed like we were getting closer to something. The White
Speaker 2: House says it's open to refining asylum law, open to
Speaker 2: enhancing the deportation program. That's like halfway to a deal.
Speaker 12: It seems to me halfway though, Yeah, well it is
Speaker 12: not all the way. Maybe it's the second half of
Speaker 12: the journey that proves a little bit harder. Let's add
Speaker 12: a voice to this conversation, someone who has worked closely
Speaker 12: with a presidential campaign. Keeping in mind President Biden is
Speaker 12: not just in the White House. He wants to stay
Speaker 12: there yep, throughout twenty twenty five and beyond.
Speaker 2: Be a massive issue on the campaign.
Speaker 7: Yeah, period, a big challenge for him.
Speaker 12: Lonnie Chen's joining us now, he of course is a
Speaker 12: former policy advisor on Mitt Romney's presidential campaign. Now at
Speaker 12: the Hoover Institution and a lecture at Stanford Law. Lonnie,
Speaker 12: thank you so much for joining us. If you are
Speaker 12: not just the Biden White House, but the Biden campaign,
Speaker 12: how important is it to get border policy right and
Speaker 12: to do it quickly?
Speaker 5: It's crucial. I mean, if you look at all of
Speaker 5: the recent polling about this presidential campaign, we know that
Speaker 5: there are two issues that are really animating voters above
Speaker 5: all else. One is the economy, the state of the
Speaker 5: economy as it tends to be in every election, and
Speaker 5: the second is immigration. It's really border security. And so
Speaker 5: for President Biden and for his team, the ability to
Speaker 5: get a deal done on border security gives him the
Speaker 5: potential to at least close the margin on this issue.
Speaker 5: The pull we saw from the Wall Street Journal over
Speaker 5: the weekend, for example, tells us that former President Trump
Speaker 5: has a significant advantage over President Biden when it comes
Speaker 5: to public perceptions about handling border security and immigration. So
Speaker 5: this kind of a deal, if the President were to
Speaker 5: be able to strike something that enhances border security that
Speaker 5: he can use to market during his campaign, would be
Speaker 5: a significant point of advantage and something I know the
Speaker 5: Biden campaign cares deeply about.
Speaker 2: Arguably a gift we've heard argued before on this program
Speaker 2: for Joe Biden that Republicans are giving him a reason
Speaker 2: to take the border off the table in this campaign
Speaker 2: while also taking care of our allies in Ukraine Israel.
Speaker 2: Seems to be a little bit less of a lift
Speaker 2: in Congress. But Lani, I've got another poll for you,
Speaker 2: and it's from the University of Michigan's Ross School of
Speaker 2: Business with the Financial Times. They put this together specifically
Speaker 2: on the matter of funding for Ukraine. Forty eight percent
Speaker 2: of registered voters half essentially say the US is spending
Speaker 2: too much on aid for Ukraine. Sixty five percent of
Speaker 2: Republicans feel that way, and that's compared with only thirty
Speaker 2: two percent of Democrats. So would you describe Republicans as
Speaker 2: the party of No when it comes to Ukraine?
Speaker 5: Well, Joe, I would say that theirs skepticism broadly. The
Speaker 5: poll points out, you know, there's a substantial number of
Speaker 5: Democrats who also have doubts. I do think amongst Republicans
Speaker 5: those doubts are stronger, There's no question about it. I
Speaker 5: would say the lack of what appears to be outcomes
Speaker 5: for all the spending so far, I think that troubles
Speaker 5: some Republican voters. I think, frankly, the lack of some
Speaker 5: transparency around on where this money is going. I think
Speaker 5: the administration could afford to be a little bit more forthcoming,
Speaker 5: probably about at least how they've spent the money. I
Speaker 5: know that there are various controls in place, and that's important,
Speaker 5: but fundamentally, when voters see a lot of money going
Speaker 5: out the door, don't necessarily see what's happening. We appear
Speaker 5: to be at virtual stalemate in Ukraine now. I think
Speaker 5: there are concerns about where that money's going, and those
Speaker 5: are going to be particularly acute amongst Republicans, and therefore
Speaker 5: no surprise that increasingly you're hearing voices in the Congress
Speaker 5: amongst Republicans say that there need to be more conditions
Speaker 5: placed on this money, that there has to be a
Speaker 5: little bit more accountability, and maybe some even saying that
Speaker 5: the flow of funds needs to slow down or stop.
Speaker 12: Well, so, when we think about foreign policies, maybe something
Speaker 12: that doesn't necessarily have as much weight when it comes
Speaker 12: to the mind of the US voter. Is it so
Speaker 12: much the domestic politics that matter, or the consideration of
Speaker 12: the international politics at play, the message it sends. If
Speaker 12: the US says you know what you care, you're on
Speaker 12: your own from here on out.
Speaker 5: I think the international politics are part of a scene setting.
Speaker 5: They're not necessarily going to be dispositive for voters. I
Speaker 5: don't think there's been any real recent evidence that we've
Speaker 5: seen presidential campaigns hinge on issues of national security directly,
Speaker 5: perhaps since two thousand and four, shortly after the nine
Speaker 5: to eleven attacks on New York and the Pentagon. But
Speaker 5: I would say that for voters, the foreign policy issues
Speaker 5: formulate help them to formulate their views of candidates and
Speaker 5: whether a candidate is strong or weak, whether a candidate
Speaker 5: is vital or not. I think these kinds of issues
Speaker 5: clearly issues that have affected President Biden's approval ratings, for example,
Speaker 5: are impacted by his perceived lack of good handling in
Speaker 5: the foreign policy sphere. And the most recent polling we
Speaker 5: have on this from over the weekend again suggests that
Speaker 5: a lot of Americans don't believe the president has handled
Speaker 5: the situation in Ukraine particularly well. They don't believe he's
Speaker 5: handled the situation the Middle East particularly well, even though
Speaker 5: there's nothing to directly blame him for. In many cases,
Speaker 5: I think that there is this sense that how people
Speaker 5: view his presidency generally leaks into their views of foreign
Speaker 5: policy and vice versa.
Speaker 2: You know what it's like to be thirty five days
Speaker 2: out from Iowa and I one of your thoughts on this.
Speaker 2: An Sealzer poll today. This is the Hawkeye State survey
Speaker 2: NBC News. Des Moines register fifty one percent for Donald Trump,
Speaker 2: the highest leads, the highest level ever recorded at this
Speaker 2: point in a competitive Republican caucus. The next stop down
Speaker 2: the line here is Ron de Santis at nineteen, then
Speaker 2: Nikki Hayley at sixteen. Are we all done here?
Speaker 5: Well, we're not done till voters actually vote. But obviously,
Speaker 5: the indications from what are probably the most credible poll.
Speaker 5: Ann Selzer's poll is the most credible poll we have
Speaker 5: tended to have historically in Iowa tells us that in
Speaker 5: that state, at least former President Trump has a commanding lead,
Speaker 5: And you know, I think, really the big question is
Speaker 5: does he hold that magnitude lead. If he holds that
Speaker 5: magnitude lead through the Iowa caucauses, this is going to
Speaker 5: be a pretty short nominating contest, I think. But let's say,
Speaker 5: for example, the former president wins Iowa but only by
Speaker 5: eight or nine points, or there's a strong second place
Speaker 5: finish from Nikki Haley, who, as you see in that
Speaker 5: poll right now, is running a close third. I think
Speaker 5: that those are the conditions that could create an interesting
Speaker 5: nominating contest. But if that result holds, if the former
Speaker 5: president continues to be in a commanding position, if he's
Speaker 5: up thirty points, there's really not much conversation to be had.
Speaker 5: So I think a lot of this is going to
Speaker 5: depend on what actually happens. And bear this in mind
Speaker 5: as well, Joe Iowa is very good at picking winners
Speaker 5: of Iowa, not necessarily of the entire presidential nominating cycle.
Speaker 5: You know, we saw Rick Santorum barely edge out Mitt
Speaker 5: Romney when I worked on that campaign twenty twelve. We
Speaker 5: saw Ted Cruz do well in twenty sixteen. So it's
Speaker 5: very hard for us to put, I think too much
Speaker 5: stock in what happens in Iowa, except to say that
Speaker 5: it has an impact on what happens in New Hampshire,
Speaker 5: South Carolina and subsequently.
Speaker 12: Well, but it's not just Iowa where the former president
Speaker 12: has a commanding lead. It just perhaps is most commanding
Speaker 12: in the Hawkeye state. Lonnie, you were talking a moment
Speaker 12: ago about how foreign policy and showing strength in that
Speaker 12: regard as something that maybe voters find appealing in candidates.
Speaker 12: Just how real of a chance do you think NICKI
Speaker 12: Haley has, Knowing that she does have that foreign policy
Speaker 12: experience and she's been flexing it quite a lot on
Speaker 12: the debate Stage's former ambassador to the Unan.
Speaker 5: I think she presents a lot of really unique talents,
Speaker 5: and I think in this race has has a lot
Speaker 5: of unique points of view that could be very helpful
Speaker 5: to her. Now the question will be can she get
Speaker 5: enough oxygen to last through South Carolina, her home state,
Speaker 5: when she has the potential to do quite well. I
Speaker 5: think in New Hampshire, where you have a primary for
Speaker 5: president where non Republicans can vote, that's sort of a
Speaker 5: unique thing about in New Hampshire. That's why Chris Christy
Speaker 5: is developing his infrastructure there, It's why Nikki Haley has
Speaker 5: invested so much time there. Really, what it's going to
Speaker 5: take is for her to not just burnish those foreign
Speaker 5: policy credentials, but be able to talk clearly about why
Speaker 5: she's the better choice. And all the polling reveals that
Speaker 5: while Donald Trump does beat Joe Biden, if you look
Speaker 5: at the head to head nationally as well as in
Speaker 5: key states, if Nicki Haley were the Republican nominee, it
Speaker 5: wouldn't even be particularly close. So Nicky Haley, at least
Speaker 5: from the data, appears to be the strongest Republican candidate.
Speaker 5: She's got to keep making that point and driving that
Speaker 5: home through I when New Hampshire, in these early states,
Speaker 5: if she wants to have any chance at knocking off
Speaker 5: someone who's a prohibitive favorite.
Speaker 2: Sounds to me like we're going to know around South Carolina,
Speaker 2: and that's not far away a third or fourth contest
Speaker 2: on the list here who the Republican nominee is going
Speaker 2: to be? Lonnie, do you agree with that or are
Speaker 2: we going to start having sugar plums in our heads
Speaker 2: about a contested convention like we do every four years.
Speaker 5: You know, it's gonna be very hard for us to
Speaker 5: determine how contested this will be until, as you say,
Speaker 5: we get past the first couple of states, and let's
Speaker 5: not forget there will be a tremendous number of delegates
Speaker 5: on the line and Super Tuesday the first Tuesday in March,
Speaker 5: including California, which has i think it lasts count almost
Speaker 5: two hundred delegates to be awarded in that contest. And
Speaker 5: so there are a lot of things yet to develop.
Speaker 5: But certainly, if Donald Trump does as we expect he
Speaker 5: will do in these first three states, if he sweeps
Speaker 5: these first three states states, it's very, very challenging to
Speaker 5: see how this contest goes on much farther than than
Speaker 5: Super Tuesday.
Speaker 11: Lonnie.
Speaker 12: Joe's brought it up a few times so far this show,
Speaker 12: but the Dictator comments that the former president seems only
Speaker 12: to have doubled down on Frankly, he just wants to
Speaker 12: be a dictator on day one. Is that a play
Speaker 12: for more media attention or do you think that's real?
Speaker 5: Well, you know, Mitt Romney over the weekend, you know,
Speaker 5: when Meet the Press together, described a dess as a
Speaker 5: human gumball machine. And I think that that's kind of
Speaker 5: an interesting and probably apt comparison when you're talking about
Speaker 5: about the former president. Yeah, I think that he has
Speaker 5: a way of taking these comments and driving them amongst
Speaker 5: his voters, his constituency, to to continue to demonstrate the
Speaker 5: degree to which he believes that the so called mainstream
Speaker 5: media is out of step with with his voters, with
Speaker 5: his supporters, and so I, like others, don't necessarily put
Speaker 5: a whole lot of stock in it. Look, this is
Speaker 5: not the kind of thing you want at presidential candidate saying,
Speaker 5: I understand that. But at the end of the day,
Speaker 5: for the former president, it is part of his persona,
Speaker 5: It is part of who he is, It is part
Speaker 5: of who he projects, and I don't think he sees
Speaker 5: it as particularly problematic, which is why you know, you
Speaker 5: haven't seen him try to even walk it back, and
Speaker 5: contrary to that, actually double down on these comments. And
Speaker 5: so I don't think he perceives it as a problem.
Speaker 5: I think he believes that it is a demonstration of strength,
Speaker 5: and to our conversation earlier, strength is something that matters
Speaker 5: a lot in these not just primary elections, but elections
Speaker 5: more broadly.
Speaker 2: At the Hoover Institution of course. A veteran of the
Speaker 2: Mitt Romney campaign, Lonnie Chen, it's great to see you
Speaker 2: joining us live from New York here on Bloomberg sound On.
Speaker 2: Thanks for sharing the insights as always, Lennie, and don't
Speaker 2: be a stranger. Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast.
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