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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

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Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Bloomberg sound On. Not

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Speaker 2: just any Monday. This is it the start of the

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Speaker 2: last big push, last week of the year for Congress

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Speaker 2: unless they start adding days to the schedule. The last

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Speaker 2: train leaves the station at the end of this week.

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Speaker 2: And we've been talking about some pretty big stuff that

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Speaker 2: needs to get done around here, never mind funding the

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Speaker 2: government with a shutdown possibly looming in January. I'm talking

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Speaker 2: about Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and the big one of course,

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Speaker 2: the lynchpin the border. So read the headline and Jonathan

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Speaker 2: Tamari's column today at Bloomberg Government. Congress's final week is

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Speaker 2: equal parts acrimony and compromise, and that is where we

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Speaker 2: begin with Jonathan. It's good to see you reporting for

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Government and of course all things Capital Hill. Jonathan,

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna get to all the deal making in a moment.

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Speaker 2: We've got pretty important news though, and Voladim Rzelenski returning

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Speaker 2: to the Capitol in person. He'll be here tomorrow, not

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Speaker 2: only to meet with all of the Senators, which is

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Speaker 2: a big enough deal, but he's gonna sit down one

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Speaker 2: on one with Speaker Mike Johnson. Does it change anything

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Speaker 2: in the end, this last minute pitch.

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Speaker 3: I mean, certainly that's what he's hoping for, but it's

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Speaker 3: more a factor of whether or not whether he's changing things,

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Speaker 3: but how much has changed around him in Congress. The

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Speaker 3: last time he addressed Congress, you know, there was almost

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Speaker 3: universal support from both chambers, both parties, for aiding Ukraine.

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Speaker 4: Helping them do.

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Speaker 3: Congress trying to do almost anything they could do to

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Speaker 3: support Ukraine in their fight against Russia. And now it's

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Speaker 3: much much more divided. You know, House Republicans in particular

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Speaker 3: are very skeptical of Ukraine aid. Senate Republicans support Ukraine aid,

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Speaker 3: but they want it to be attached to tougher border policies.

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Speaker 3: And so I think, more so than anything he might say,

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Speaker 3: the issue is whether Democrats and the White House and

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Speaker 3: Senate Republicans can get to a point where they agree

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Speaker 3: on those border policies. And it's enough for the Republicans

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Speaker 3: and it's something that Democrats can swallow. That's been the

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Speaker 3: big hold up, and that's what we're all watching this week.

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Speaker 2: He'll be speaking with all of the Senators, at least

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Speaker 2: those who attend the All Senators meeting tomorrow morning at

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Speaker 2: the invitation of Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell. This meeting

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Speaker 2: with the Speaker, though, is interesting to me. He can

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Speaker 2: talk to Joe Biden, Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer all day long.

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Speaker 2: That won't really change the game here. Is this about

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Speaker 2: President Zelenski speaking to Mike Johnson or is it going

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Speaker 2: to be Mike Johnson also sending a message to President

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Speaker 2: Zelenski that this is not going to come as easily anymore.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think that point has been made

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Speaker 3: very clear. I think this is my interpretation is that

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Speaker 3: this is Lenski trying to make one final push to

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Speaker 3: the most important Republican in the House to say, listen,

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Speaker 3: if we can get this aid through the Senate, trying

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Speaker 3: to get those votes that he's going to need from

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Speaker 3: the House to make it final, if they can get

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Speaker 3: that done this week. Zelensky has always been the best

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Speaker 3: advocate for his country. He's very skilled in public presentations,

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Speaker 3: and so I think he's trying to close the deal.

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Speaker 3: That is a very difficult deal for him right now.

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Speaker 2: Well, you also can't really talk about Ukraine without mentioning Israel.

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Speaker 2: The supplemental request from the White House included funding for both,

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Speaker 2: along with Taiwan and the border. This has since broken

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Speaker 2: down into slightly more complex and a lot more complex

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Speaker 2: situation as we approach these one by one. Jonathan Tamari,

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Speaker 2: Where Israeli funding here? We're talking a lot about the border,

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Speaker 2: unlocking money for Ukraine, But if you ask Mike Johnson,

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Speaker 2: those are separate bills that would come to the floor

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Speaker 2: at different times. Right.

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Speaker 3: Yes, that is his plan, and in fact, the House

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Speaker 3: has passed aid to Israel on its own already a

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Speaker 3: couple weeks ago. Now, the thing is that was attached

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Speaker 3: to big cuts to the irs, which Democrats say is

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Speaker 3: a non starter. And Democrats want to pair all these

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Speaker 3: things together. They say they're all in our national security

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Speaker 3: interest and that the Senate is not going to move

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Speaker 3: any of these individually.

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Speaker 5: The House would disagree with that.

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Speaker 3: I think the fact Democrats certainly want to keep Israel

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Speaker 3: need in the package is something of a sweetener for

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Speaker 3: those Republicans even if they're not maybe fully satisfied with

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Speaker 3: the border provisions.

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Speaker 4: If any get agreed.

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Speaker 3: To that Israel can be something that still draws some

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Speaker 3: Republican votes along.

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Speaker 2: Well, there you have it. Then it's Monday. Will any

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Speaker 2: of this get done by the end of the week, Jonathan.

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Speaker 3: I think that's that is the million dollar question that

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Speaker 3: we're all watching for. You know, I think it's a

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Speaker 3: big challenge for the people who support Ukraine, you know,

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Speaker 3: trying to tie this up with border funding. It's a

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Speaker 3: big lift. Immigration has been, you know, one of the

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Speaker 3: toughest issues in Congress for decades, and they're trying to

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Speaker 3: close a deal here in a matter of days. The

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Speaker 3: only thing I would say is that I think with

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Speaker 3: bipartisan support for Ukraine, bipartisan support for Israel, there is

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Speaker 3: potentially room for everybody to get something that they want

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Speaker 3: and to get this over the line.

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Speaker 5: But I think it's going to be a tough lift.

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Speaker 3: I would say the odds are against it, but I

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Speaker 3: would not say it's impossible at this point.

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Speaker 2: Holding out hope with Jonathan Samari. Thank you, Jonathan. I

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Speaker 2: know you've got a busy week ahead reporting for Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Government with us here to get things started on Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. As we turned

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Speaker 2: to the situation in Israel now the IDF pushing further

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Speaker 2: into southern Gaza, two hundred and fifty air strikes or

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Speaker 2: certainly two hundred and fifty targets from the air pushing

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Speaker 2: now thousands of Palestinians toward the border with Egypt, and

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Speaker 2: questions now about where this is going to go. As

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Speaker 2: we hear from the EU's top diplomat, Joseph Burrell, who

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Speaker 2: says the situation in Gaza is catastrophic, apocalyptic, with destruction

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Speaker 2: proportionally even greater, he says, than that which Germany experienced

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Speaker 2: in World War Two. Reporting by AFP, As we add

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Speaker 2: the voice now of Hadar Suskan, the president and CEO

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Speaker 2: of Americans for Peace. Now he spent time in the

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Speaker 2: IDF as Sergeant first class, and we've been looking forward

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Speaker 2: to the conversation for some time, Hadar, since you were

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Speaker 2: with us a couple of weeks ago. Thank you for

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Speaker 2: coming back. I wonder your reaction to what we're hearing

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Speaker 2: now from the EU's top diplomat versus Israel's goal to

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Speaker 2: eliminate Hamas.

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Speaker 6: Thanks Joe, I'm happy to be back here with you today. Look,

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Speaker 6: there's no question that the situation in Gaza is catastrophic.

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Speaker 6: We've all seen the pictures, We've all seen the videos.

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Speaker 6: The question is, you know what can be done, and

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Speaker 6: you say it Israel's goal of eliminating Hamas in Israel,

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Speaker 6: there's an incredibly vibrant argument and we're seeing it here

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Speaker 6: in Washington too, about whether that's even a real achievable goal.

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Speaker 6: And you know, certainly everyone agrees Israel has the right

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Speaker 6: to defend itself.

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Speaker 7: Israel needed to.

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Speaker 6: Respond to the atrocities that Hamas committed on October seventh,

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Speaker 6: But that doesn't answer the question of what are the

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Speaker 6: actual goals of this campaign?

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Speaker 7: What are they trying to achieve?

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Speaker 6: And you know, can it be done in any way

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Speaker 6: that brings this conflict to a close sometime soon?

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Speaker 2: Well, I'll tell you. The fierce fighting comes with news

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Speaker 2: from the IDF that Hamas is beginning to buckle. As

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Speaker 2: I read in the Washington Post under the onslaught do

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Speaker 2: we need then, as we talk about funding with strings

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Speaker 2: attached to the International Humanitarian law and so forth, should

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Speaker 2: the funding simply be attached to an endgame, an exit

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Speaker 2: strategy here and basically how we define eliminating Hamas because

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Speaker 2: there are many who argue that these strikes, the attacks

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Speaker 2: by Israel against Gaza, is creating a whole new generation

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Speaker 2: of Hamas fighters.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: Again, you know, Hamas is an institution, and it's also

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Speaker 6: an idea. And I you know, stand firmly with the

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Speaker 6: people of Israel that Hamas cannot be left in power

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Speaker 6: in Gaza in a capacity to perpetrate future events like

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Speaker 6: what they did on October seventh.

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Speaker 7: Everybody agrees on that.

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Speaker 6: But to say you're going to eliminate Hamas, I don't

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Speaker 6: think anyone thinks is feasible. And so the Israeli government

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Speaker 6: needs to determine what that goal is. They need to

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Speaker 6: be clear and specific about real achievable military goals. And

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Speaker 6: you know, on the question of aid, whether you're talking

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Speaker 6: about the supplemental or aid to Israel overall, you know,

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Speaker 6: I support aid to Israel, but I think, like all

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Speaker 6: of our aid to every country, it should support US

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Speaker 6: policy priorities and American value. And I think that's the

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Speaker 6: debate right now around conditioning aid is making sure that

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Speaker 6: the military aid that we give to Israel, and it

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Speaker 6: is all military aid that it does support those US

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Speaker 6: policies and values.

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Speaker 2: I was struck by our conversation last time by the

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Speaker 2: way in which you saw both sides of this story.

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Speaker 2: Certainly as a former member of the IDF, it gives

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Speaker 2: you some sympathy, some empathy for those troops or are

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Speaker 2: going into very dangerous areas in Gaza, and that's been

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Speaker 2: the impetus in many cases to strike from a distance,

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Speaker 2: to strike from the air, which you tell Israel to

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Speaker 2: send more boots on the ground to be more precise.

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Speaker 6: Look, I am not the head of the IDF or

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Speaker 6: a military strategist like you said, I do have some

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Speaker 6: of that experience. You know, it's a really difficult balance.

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Speaker 6: It is the job of the Israeli military to try

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Speaker 6: to keep its soldiers and it's civilians safe. And obviously,

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Speaker 6: you know bombing long distance is safer than sending troops

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Speaker 6: into the ground in on the ground. But it's also

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Speaker 6: evident that you can't achieve all of the goals, including

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Speaker 6: what I think should be the top goal of this

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Speaker 6: Israeli campaign, which is the returning, the return of the

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Speaker 6: remaining hostages. Cannot be achieved through bombing, cannot be achieved

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Speaker 6: through long distance attacks. You need to have troops on

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Speaker 6: the ground if your effort is going to be to

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Speaker 6: militarily rescue them as they have tried. What's been successful,

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Speaker 6: of course, was when there was a ceasefire and an

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Speaker 6: agreement to release the hostages.

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Speaker 2: That brings us to the potential for another truce. And

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Speaker 2: I wonder where your your thoughts are, because time is

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Speaker 2: not going to help heal wounds here. There are more

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Speaker 2: aggravated feelings and emotions on both sides of the of

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Speaker 2: the line here. Do you think that was all we're

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Speaker 2: going to get? Or could you see another week or

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Speaker 2: two come out of this knowing that Hamas has its

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Speaker 2: own reasons to seek a truce, so it can regroup.

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Speaker 6: Like it can't be all we're going to get. Right,

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Speaker 6: At some point, this war, this specific campaign is going

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Speaker 6: to come to an end, and when it does, there'll

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Speaker 6: still be Israelis there and there'll still be Palestinians there,

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Speaker 6: and they're going to have to figure out how to live,

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Speaker 6: if not together, then in proximity in a better way.

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Speaker 6: And so there's the current hot button issues. There's again,

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Speaker 6: as you said, the you know, incredible humanitarian crisis that's

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Speaker 6: taking place in Gaza right now. You know, the death

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Speaker 6: numbers keep climbing, not only from bombing, but now we're

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Speaker 6: talking about deaths from disease, deaths from hunger, from lack

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Speaker 6: of sanitation. So there's a huge crisis there that needs

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Speaker 6: to be addressed imminently. And of course there are still

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Speaker 6: the hostages there, and there's still rockets flying from Comas

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Speaker 6: as well.

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Speaker 7: It's not only Israel who's bombing.

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Speaker 6: So you know, whether we're going to see that this

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Speaker 6: week or next week or the next or the one

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Speaker 6: after that, I don't know.

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Speaker 7: I hope it is as soon as possible. I would

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Speaker 7: like to see.

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Speaker 6: You know, if what we can get is a temporary

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Speaker 6: halt to release those hostages to allow more aid in,

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Speaker 6: I think that would be a positive step, but it's

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Speaker 6: only that step.

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Speaker 7: Ultimately, there needs to be a ceasefire.

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Speaker 6: There needs to be an end to this round of

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Speaker 6: the conflict, and I hope that when we achieve that,

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Speaker 6: when we get to that moment, it means the hostages

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Speaker 6: that have been released, and it means that people in

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Speaker 6: Gozla can start rebuilding their lives as well.

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Speaker 2: Dar. I'm glad you can come back to talk to us.

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Speaker 2: Saddar Suskan President's CEO Americans for Peace now former sergeant

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Speaker 2: first class in the Israeli Defense Forces. Good to have

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Speaker 2: your insights today. As we assemble our panel, Rick Davis

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Speaker 2: and Jeanie Shanzino are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors, and

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Speaker 2: we'll have time for everyone to be able to weigh

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Speaker 2: in on this when it comes to Israel, Genie, after

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Speaker 2: what you just heard from Kadar, it's pretty difficult to

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Speaker 2: come to consensus in a conversation like this, with such

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Speaker 2: a complex set of situations here on both sides. What's

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Speaker 2: the view of Joe Biden when we hear about two

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty more strikes overnight, as any of the

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Speaker 2: message from the White House being heard in Tel Aviv.

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Speaker 8: It doesn't feel like it's being heard, and it's got

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Speaker 8: to be deeply concerning. You know, look at the step

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Speaker 8: we took just the other day on the UN resolution.

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Speaker 8: The Biden administration is going to have to really think

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Speaker 8: about this passive strategy that they've adopted, you know, to

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Speaker 8: the point of your previous conversation, the reality is is

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Speaker 8: our funding has to be conditioned on what is in

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Speaker 8: the best entrance of US policy, what is within the

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Speaker 8: international law, and of course the fact that Real seems

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Speaker 8: not to be listening is problematic.

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Speaker 2: All right, We'll have more time on this, as I

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Speaker 2: mentioned with Genie and Rick, also the matter of Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: With President Zelenski visiting Washington again this week. We'll see

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Speaker 2: what happens to the debate on both and we'll air

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Speaker 2: it out here next. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune

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Speaker 1: in alf, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: President Zelenski will be meeting tomorrow with Senators, with the

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Speaker 2: new Speaker of the House and with President Biden. But

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Speaker 2: he is already here today. The delegation from Ukraine is

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Speaker 2: in the Capitol. In fact, he appeared alongside Lloyd Austin,

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Speaker 2: the Secretary of Defense. President Zelenski speaking earlier to the

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Speaker 2: National Defense University The real high stakes day, though, is tomorrow,

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Speaker 2: as he finally gets in front of some of the

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Speaker 2: very lawmakers who have been doubtful over the effort to

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Speaker 2: continue funding Ukraine. Let's reassemble our panel. We have a

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Speaker 2: lot to talk about today with Rick Davis and Genie

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Speaker 2: Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors. We'll get back to the matter

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Speaker 2: of Israel in a moment, Rick. This latest visit by

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Speaker 2: President Zelenski comes thanks to an invite from not only

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Speaker 2: the White House, but the leadership in the Senate. What

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Speaker 2: happens when he gets in a room with the Speaker

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Speaker 2: of the House. That's the real business at hand here,

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Speaker 2: when he looks eye to eye with Mike Johnson, what

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Speaker 2: should be the message.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think, first.

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Speaker 9: Of all, the atmospheric says, he's coming off of a

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Speaker 9: very bad week. The collapse of his visit last week,

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Speaker 9: or at least the visit virtually to the private briefing.

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Speaker 9: The briefing itself collapsed through the fact that there was

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Speaker 9: no new information being imparted. You can try the senator's

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Speaker 9: time all you want, but if you ask him to

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Speaker 9: go to a meeting where they don't learn anything, they're

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Speaker 9: going to be pretty grumpy, and that's what you had

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Speaker 9: at the end of last week, a real negative turn.

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Speaker 9: So he's got to overcome that. He's got to build

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Speaker 9: a relationship with the new speaker. He really doesn't have one,

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Speaker 9: certainly not since Johnson's been elected Speaker, and he has

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Speaker 9: to do it all in the context of trying to

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Speaker 9: get something done in literally one week in order to

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Speaker 9: try and preserve the funding that he needs to go

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Speaker 9: into to extend the war into new year. So it's

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Speaker 9: a monumental task and frankly one that I think all

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Speaker 9: the cards are stacked against his success, which may actually

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Speaker 9: be the blessing in disguise, because at this stage, you know,

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Speaker 9: just being able to build that relationship with Johnson might

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Speaker 9: be enough to preserve an option for next year funding.

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Speaker 2: Well, of course we're not talking about Ukraine funding or

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Speaker 2: apparently Israel funding without a deal on the border. And

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Speaker 2: I want to get both of your takes on this,

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Speaker 2: because we heard from both the lead negotiators the Democratic

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Speaker 2: Republican Party, they both did the Sunday shows. Although we

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Speaker 2: heard from James Langford the Republican of course, the senator

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Speaker 2: here who's leading negotiations just outside the Capitol on the steps.

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Speaker 2: He's coming into work today and he was on sea

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Speaker 2: and I want to listen. I want you to listen

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Speaker 2: to how close actually what Langford and Chris Murphy, the

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Speaker 2: Democrat are saying. Here. Here's James Langford with see.

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Speaker 10: You got a narrow majority in the House, we're in

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Speaker 10: a minority in the Senate, and we don't have the

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Speaker 10: White House on it. I mean, we don't have the

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Speaker 10: pole position may have resolve this. We're not going to

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Speaker 10: resolve every area dealing with border security, but based on

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Speaker 10: right now what's happening along the border, we shouldn't just

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Speaker 10: ignore it.

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Speaker 2: Okay, We're not going to be able to resolve every

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Speaker 2: area with regard to the border. That's the Republican lead

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Speaker 2: of negotiations. Here's the Democrat on Meet the Press, Chris

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Speaker 2: Murphy of Connecticut.

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Speaker 11: Ukraine is running out of ammunition and if we don't

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Speaker 11: solve this in the next few weeks, Vladimir Putin is

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Speaker 11: going to have an opening and opening to march through

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Speaker 11: the Ukrainian lines to make a move on Kiev, threatening

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Speaker 11: all of Europe. So this has to be resolved right now,

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Speaker 11: which is why Republicans have to be reasonable we are

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Speaker 11: not going to solve the entire problem of immigration between

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Speaker 11: now and the end of the year, but we can

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Speaker 11: make a down payment.

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Speaker 2: We're not going to solve the entire problem of immigration, Genie.

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Speaker 2: It was almost word for word. Does that make you

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Speaker 2: feel like we're getting more realistic about a compromise here

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Speaker 2: or might get something done?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, I think they both indicated over the

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Speaker 8: weekend that progress was being made definitely better than they

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Speaker 8: were the weekend before. One big concern in my mind

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Speaker 8: was hearing Chris Murphy over the weekend saying the White

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Speaker 8: House is going to get more engaged. It would seem

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Speaker 8: to be given the timing that their height of engagement

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Speaker 8: would have been like three years ago. So the idea

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Speaker 8: that we're waiting for the last minute for them to

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Speaker 8: come in in a heightened engagement is a bit troubling

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Speaker 8: to me because time is certainly not on our side.

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Speaker 8: But you know, on the opposite side, we did hear

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Speaker 8: the President last week say that the White House was engaged,

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Speaker 8: So getting some mixed signals on that is a little

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Speaker 8: bit troubling. But you know, the reality is is this

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Speaker 8: was always the downside of tying all these together was

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Speaker 8: if one thing goes down, everything crumbles. So you know,

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Speaker 8: we've got to hope they can keep all these balls

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Speaker 8: in the air and keep this moving forward. And I

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Speaker 8: think that the White House really has to jump on this.

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Speaker 8: What I see as a gift by Republicans. The immigration

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Speaker 8: issue is a loser for Democrats. They should be jumping

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Speaker 8: on this, get it feel and claim success as soon

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Speaker 8: as possible. I know that's easier said than done, but

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Speaker 8: I think Biden's got to be out there pushing for

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Speaker 8: a deal of any kind, even incremental on immigration.

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Speaker 2: Rick, you just heard Langford and Murphy speaking about this.

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Speaker 2: Dick Durbin, the number two Democrat in the Senate, had

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Speaker 2: an interview from Guatemala, who's down there over the weekend

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Speaker 2: looking into this issue, and he spoke with punch bowl quote,

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Speaker 2: we cannot ignore the reality of the numbers and where

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Speaker 2: they're coming from. We did not design the border policies

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Speaker 2: for the volume of this nature. Unquote. You're hearing democrats,

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Speaker 2: It sure sounds to me, Rick, indicate that they are

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Speaker 2: ready to make a deal. Are we closer than we

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Speaker 2: were a week ago?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I think we're closer. I mean, you know, everybody

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Speaker 9: was talking about a week before last the death of

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Speaker 9: these negotiations. Oh my god, they laughed and yeah, you know,

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Speaker 9: they didn't finish anything, and they're still talking, and as

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Speaker 9: you portrayed, it sounds like they're saying exactly the same

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Speaker 9: thing I would say a little person.

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Speaker 5: Deny's take.

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Speaker 9: I think Biden should get involved, but he needs to

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Speaker 9: talk to his Democrats. They're the ones who are saying

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Speaker 9: no to a deal that Langford's got on the table.

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Speaker 9: And so if Biden's smart, he's making sure that the

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Speaker 9: Democrats in the Senate aren't being too tough in their negotiation.

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Speaker 9: He needs a deal, no matter what that deal is,

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Speaker 9: and he needs it worse than they do, and so

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Speaker 9: I think that that could be a positive to actually

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Speaker 9: get a deal done. He's not going to have any

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Speaker 9: influence with Republicans, but he could have an impact with

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Speaker 9: Democrats who might be standing in the way of a

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Speaker 9: border deal.

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Speaker 2: Interesting numbers here on funding for Ukraine, And to your point, Genie,

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Speaker 2: this could be a gift for Joe Biden. It could

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Speaker 2: be a gift in more ways than one. You take

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Speaker 2: the border off the table in a campaign here and

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Speaker 2: you overcome apparently pretty real opposition here at least real

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Speaker 2: skepticism overfunding for Ukraine half of registered voters. This is

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Speaker 2: a University of Michigan Ross School, a business poll. They

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Speaker 2: did it with the Financial Times. Forty eight percent say

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Speaker 2: the US is spending too much on aid for Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: Sixty that's overall, sixty five percent of Republicans say too much,

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Speaker 2: compared with fifty two percent of Independence and thirty two

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Speaker 2: percent of Democrats. This is clearly an independent and Republican concern. Genie,

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Speaker 2: So is this two gifts the Republican Congress could give

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden?

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Speaker 8: It is. But those numbers are so important because they

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Speaker 8: underscore what Franklin Roosevelt told all leaders. You have to

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Speaker 8: educate the public. When you are sending millions and billions

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Speaker 8: of dollars somewhere else of people's hard earned money and

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Speaker 8: they are suffering at home, you have an obligation to

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Speaker 8: educate them on why it's in our interest to do that.

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Speaker 8: And that is what needs to happen. It would be

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Speaker 8: a disaster for the US from almost every perspective to

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Speaker 8: walk away from Ukraine right now, and that is got

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Speaker 8: to be said over and over. You can't say it enough.

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Speaker 8: Otherwise the numbers that you just read will continue, and

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Speaker 8: if Congress did support the funding, there would be questions

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Speaker 8: and it would not look good for President Biden come

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Speaker 8: twenty twenty four when people go to the polls. So educate, educate, educates,

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Speaker 8: got to happen.

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Speaker 2: Here, Rick, we've got a minute to the news. I

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Speaker 2: just want to give you a chance to weigh in

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Speaker 2: on the conversation that we were having earlier on the

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Speaker 2: situation in Israel. So what extent is the Biden administration

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Speaker 2: do you think or should be helping to call shots,

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Speaker 2: helping to actually influence military strategy right now in Israel

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Speaker 2: as it conducts its raids in Gaza.

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Speaker 9: Well, I think that they are actively trying to weigh

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Speaker 9: in on the death of civilians. Right There's nothing in

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Speaker 9: it for the United States to use our money and

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Speaker 9: weaponry to kill a lot of civilians in harm's way.

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Speaker 9: There's no question there are collateral damage to this offensive

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Speaker 9: by Israel, and we've been I think a positive force

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Speaker 9: in trying to find ways for the Israelis to avoid

439
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Speaker 9: those clashes.

440
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 2: That being said, Israel has.

441
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 9: Their battle plan. It's their battle plan, and they're going

442
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 9: to execute it as they seem fit. And even though

443
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 9: we are a reliable and important ally to them. I

444
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 9: think they'll listen, but we can't dictate terms to them.

445
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,880
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

446
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,080
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

447
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

448
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:48,440
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

449
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 2: And welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound On. We're

450
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 2: back to Washington now, Kaylee linees at my side as

451
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 2: we drive forward here on the fastest show in politics.

452
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,680
Speaker 2: I just don't know where we're driving. Yeah, we've been

453
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 2: like winding up to this week for weeks. We added

454
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:08,359
Speaker 2: a border deal, we added a laddered cr We've got

455
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 2: all kinds of stuff flying around here. No one has

456
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 2: a path on anything apparently, but maybe that's just when

457
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:15,719
Speaker 2: news breaks. Kayley, I'm holding out hope.

458
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 12: Well, I guess you can't rule it out right. Something

459
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 12: could always happen in the next couple days before they

460
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 12: head home for the holidays, assuming that they do as scheduled,

461
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,439
Speaker 12: head home at the end of this week, even if

462
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,880
Speaker 12: they haven't gotten much on the to do list done

463
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 12: before doing so.

464
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 2: That's right, We're going to talk to Mick mulvaney in

465
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 2: just a moment. I'm gonna guess that. You know, he's

466
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 2: probably listening to us right now and he thinks we're

467
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 2: sounding pretty downbeat. I know Mick will lift our spirits,

468
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 2: will he? If Jack Fitzpatrick does not? From Bloomberg Government, Jack,

469
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 2: good to see you. This is your time. This is

470
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:52,640
Speaker 2: like Christmas morning for someone who covers appropriations. But will

471
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 2: there be appropriations to cover? And are we really going

472
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 2: home this week? Or the law makers get a letter

473
00:24:58,040 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 2: in a couple of days saying and you're gonna work

474
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:00,479
Speaker 2: through weekend.

475
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 13: I don't know when the holidays start, especially for the Senate.

476
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 13: You've had this letter that came out last week from

477
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 13: the White House saying your deadline to get a deal

478
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 13: for Ukraine funding, which is locked up with these border talks,

479
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 13: is the end of the calendar year. They're scheduled to

480
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 13: leave December fifteenth. I'd be a little surprised if they

481
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 13: left early. If they left on December fifteenth without a

482
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 13: deal for Ukraine, having been told by the White House

483
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 13: we absolutely need something this year, and it does not

484
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 13: even if today is a good day, tomorrow is a

485
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 13: good day in negotiations. It doesn't sound like they could

486
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 13: actually pass something through both chambers even if there was

487
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 13: a handshake deal.

488
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 12: Now, well, that's what I was going to say, Jack.

489
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 12: It's one thing. If the Senate agrees and can get

490
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 12: it done, it then has to go to the House

491
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,239
Speaker 12: and be voted on by enough House Republicans who are

492
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 12: many of whom are very resistant to the idea of

493
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 12: further Ukraine Ukraine ad and would only like to see

494
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 12: HR two essentially when it comes to border policy. So

495
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 12: the reconciliation is difficult to see here.

496
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 13: Yeah, the tougher part, I think is the border measures

497
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 13: and the pressure that it could put on House Republican LEADLeadership.

498
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 13: They've been pushed to say we want all of HR two,

499
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 13: even if there are concessions there. You could get Democratic

500
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 13: votes in a bipartisan deal that's going to get through

501
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:14,120
Speaker 13: the Senate. You can count on anything requiring Democratic support,

502
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 13: so you don't need to get two hundred eighteen votes

503
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,199
Speaker 13: from Republicans. But the key question in the House is

504
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 13: how much pressure does the Freedom Caucus put on Mike Johnson,

505
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,919
Speaker 13: the News Speaker. Does it get to the point where

506
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 13: his stance as the leader of the conference is shakier

507
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 13: if he doesn't get a really good deal on border measures.

508
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 13: And that's the really tough stuff that there's still plenty

509
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 13: of Republicans who are supportive of Ukraine, but it's the

510
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 13: it's the quid pro quo that makes it complicated.

511
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 2: The commentary that we're hearing though from both Chris Murphy

512
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 2: and James Langford, it's kind of amazing. We cooked it

513
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 2: down in the last hour. They're using word for word

514
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 2: language that makes you wonder if maybe they're closer than

515
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 2: it appears. I'll walk you through it. This is James

516
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:58,640
Speaker 2: Langford just a short time ago on CNN Mona Raj.

517
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 2: You got him as he was coming up us.

518
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 10: Our majority in the House, we're in a minority in

519
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:04,119
Speaker 10: the Senate, and we don't have the White House on it.

520
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:05,679
Speaker 10: I mean, you know, we don't have the pole position.

521
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,120
Speaker 10: May have resolve this. We're not going to resolve every

522
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 10: area dealing with border security, but.

523
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 2: We're not going to be able to resolve in every area.

524
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,680
Speaker 11: We solve this in the next few weeks, Chris murv

525
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 11: Vlatimir Putin is going to have an opening and opening

526
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 11: to march through the Ukrainian lines. To make a move

527
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 11: on Keys, threatening all of Europe. So this has to

528
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 11: be resolved right now, which is why Republicans have to

529
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 11: be reasonable. We are not going to solve the entire

530
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 11: problem of immigration between now and the end of the year,

531
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:33,919
Speaker 11: but we can make a down payment.

532
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,479
Speaker 2: They're basically saying the same thing, So are we going

533
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 2: to get some form of immigration light here? We're not

534
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:44,159
Speaker 2: going to solve the entire problem, but here's what we've got.

535
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 13: That is the focus. There's a lot of there's a

536
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 13: real reality check from Senate Republicans, even h with regard

537
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 13: to House republicans expectations. House Republicans are saying, we want

538
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,639
Speaker 13: everything that we passed in our partisan bill on the border.

539
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 13: You heard James Langford, you may have heard last week

540
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 13: Tom Tillis say they'll get what we send them. But

541
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 13: it's still very difficult to get a deal in the Senate.

542
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:10,680
Speaker 13: The proposals that have been put forward, according to Chris

543
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 13: Murphy from Republicans, are ones that would not get any

544
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 13: Democratic support, let alone enough to get sixty votes in

545
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 13: the Senate. And you do still have that political pressure

546
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 13: on Mike Johnson. There could be a difference between the

547
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 13: House Republican stance and the Senate Republican stance that makes

548
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 13: it difficult to get something through.

549
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 12: All right, I would say Jack sounded pretty downbeat there

550
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:30,680
Speaker 12: as well.

551
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 2: Really optimist.

552
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 12: Yeah, not upbeat, that's for sure, Jack Fitzpatrick of Bloomberg Government,

553
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 12: thank you so much.

554
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 2: As always, it's straight though, absolutely neutral beats.

555
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 12: Perhaps should we get the beat from from Mick mulvaney,

556
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 12: of course, a former congressman better not neutral himself, as

557
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 12: our listeners know, we talk to him every Monday and

558
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 12: we give the whole list of the resume. I'll skip that.

559
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 12: Are we two down beat or are we appropriately down beat?

560
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 12: What's your take here?

561
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 4: I think you're appropriately downbeat?

562
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 14: And keep in mind, and everybody knows this now that

563
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:04,239
Speaker 14: Washington is not going by any of the typical playbooks, right,

564
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 14: so anybody says, oh, yeah, this is how it's gonna happen,

565
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 14: this is how it's going to happen, this is how

566
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 14: it's going to happen, just isn't paying attention because we're

567
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 14: sort of off the rails when it comes to how

568
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 14: Washington is functioning. So the best I think I can do,

569
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 14: Keiley is give you some additional data points. Right number one.

570
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 14: The whole idea behind this laddered CR, at least one

571
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 14: of the ideas behind the laddered CR was to take

572
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 14: the pressure off that traditionally exists before Christmas. Conservatives in

573
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 14: the House really really hated it when leadership, even in

574
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 14: their own party used the Christmas holidays to pressure them

575
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 14: to do something. And I think you saw some creativity

576
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:43,160
Speaker 14: for Mike Johnson to move it beyond the funding issues now,

577
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 14: beyond Christmas and get it into the new year.

578
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:46,959
Speaker 4: That was done for a reason.

579
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 14: Okay, so factor that into whether or not something's going

580
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 14: to get done right now.

581
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 4: Also you put your yourself.

582
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 14: Yes, the House says they want everything, and I get that,

583
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 14: but they actually have passed something that not that something

584
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 14: in Democrats like they passed something on foreign Aid and

585
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 14: I think they defunded the IRS. I don't think they've

586
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 14: done it. Then they passed HR two. At least they've

587
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 14: passed something the Senate. While they say, look, you know

588
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 14: that the House will take what the Senate can pass.

589
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 14: What we said them, that's you know, that's that's not wrong.

590
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 14: But that only becomes relevant once the Senate actually passes something.

591
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 4: And as your man pointed, out. The Senate hasn't passed

592
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 4: anything yet.

593
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 14: It doesn't show any sort of willingness or at least

594
00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 14: ability in the next forty hours to pass something. So

595
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 14: everything you've just heard is correct. From your guy in

596
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 14: the him, I apologize, I can't remember his name. Everything

597
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 14: you guys have mentioned is correct, and you take those

598
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 14: other pieces and parts, and where do you get.

599
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 4: I still get that nothing happens before Christmas.

600
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 14: There's one other, one other factor the House members that

601
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 14: the right wing of the Republican Party is not going

602
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 14: to believe the Office of Management and Budget when it

603
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 14: says Ukraine is going to run out of money by Christmas.

604
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 14: They are going to perceive that, rightly or wrongly, as

605
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 14: a manufactured deadline and sort of, oh, here we are again.

606
00:30:57,840 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 14: It's the same old thing about using our vacation to

607
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 14: get so you can discount that. So you put all

608
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 14: that together, and I'm fairly downbeating get anything you've done

609
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 14: this week. And I don't think they're staying past Saturday.

610
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 2: What do you make of the in person pitch? President

611
00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 2: Zelenski here tomorrow is going to do the bilateral with

612
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 2: Joe Biden in all senators meeting, I'll be curious to

613
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 2: see how many Senators show up and at the invitation

614
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 2: of Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer. Then he's got a

615
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:27,040
Speaker 2: one on one with Mike Johnson. Mick, I'd love to

616
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 2: get your thoughts on both sides of this conversation, because

617
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 2: President Zelenski knows what's going on. He knows this is

618
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 2: tied to the border. He's heard the refrain. The White

619
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 2: House is keeping him up to speed here, what does

620
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 2: he tell the speaker? And maybe it's more important, what

621
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 2: does the speaker have to tell him?

622
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 14: Listen, Zelenski's the best salesman they have. There's no question

623
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 14: about it. You have to take your head off to

624
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 14: the guy. When I met him a couple of times

625
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 14: in personalizing in the White House, I was not impressed.

626
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 14: I had been thoroughly impressed with the way he's conducted

627
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 14: himself since the Russian invasion. So he is their best

628
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 14: sales when he's the right person to send here. I'm

629
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 14: not sure what he says, Joe, because here's the question.

630
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 14: I would ask, Okay, you ran out of you ran

631
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 14: out of ammunition, and we sent you that and it

632
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 14: did work. He ran out of money to run your government,

633
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 14: and we sent you that and that's not working. Now

634
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 14: you're running out of men. We're not going to send

635
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 14: you any meant people. You're running out of men and

636
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 14: women to fight this battle. We're not doing that. So

637
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 14: your what is your plan? What comes next? Other than

638
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 14: us writing you a blank check? And I know that's

639
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 14: a derogatory term in some people's mind, and it certainly

640
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 14: isn't mind. But what is the plan other than just

641
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 14: asking us for more of the saying that hasn't worked

642
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 14: so far. That's a really tough question to ask in

643
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 14: a really tough question for him to answer. So again,

644
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 14: he's the right person to do it, but there could

645
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 14: be some very frank and very difficult conversations for him,

646
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 14: the toughest questions he's had since he's been coming to

647
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 14: Washington over the last two years.

648
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 12: But make is this really about the plan or is

649
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 12: this about the alternative, which is Russia getting its way

650
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 12: in Ukraine. Isn't that much greater risk than maybe some

651
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 12: money being used ineffectively?

652
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 7: Yes and no, I.

653
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 14: Guess the question is it's really hard to go home

654
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 14: and tell people we spent another X number of dollars

655
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 14: on Ukraine. They don't really have a plan, but we

656
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 14: don't know what else to do. And by the way,

657
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 14: we didn't get anything on the border. That doesn't sell well.

658
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 14: In fact, that doesn't sell well, and even in some

659
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 14: Democrat districts. Keep in mind, this whole border thing has

660
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 14: morphed Cayley a little bit. I'm not trying to oversell this.

661
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,160
Speaker 14: I'm not trying to pick aside us. I'm biased, I'm

662
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 14: a Republican and I get all that. But keep in mind,

663
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 14: the border is now a topic that is crossing party lines.

664
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 14: When you have the Democrat mayors in New York and

665
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 14: Chicago and Washington, D C. And even secondary and tertiary

666
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 14: cities complaining about border policies, it starts to sort of

667
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 14: bleed over. It's no longer just a right wing conservative

668
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 14: thing that pops up, say in a Republican primary. It's

669
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,200
Speaker 14: going to start to impact those swim districts. So it's

670
00:33:57,240 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 14: really hard to go back and say, oh, yeah, we

671
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 14: gave Ukraine money. We don't know what we gave it

672
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 14: to him for what we did. To say we're doing

673
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 14: something and we didn't do anything on the border that

674
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 14: that's not a very tenable position for a lot of folks,

675
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 14: not just Republicans.

676
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 2: Well, so what needs to happen? When you hear Chris

677
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:15,720
Speaker 2: Murphy speaking open mindedly, the White House says it's open

678
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:20,919
Speaker 2: to refining asylum law, maybe enhancing the deportation process. Dick

679
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:24,720
Speaker 2: Durbin speaking today with the Tip Sheets this morning from Guatemala,

680
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 2: he says, we cannot ignore the reality of the numbers

681
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 2: and where they're coming from any longer. Mick, that feels

682
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 2: like we're closer, not further away. Don't you think, Oh,

683
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 2: it's a great point.

684
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:37,800
Speaker 14: And so let's let's let's let's move the chest pieces

685
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 14: as to how do you get to a deal? Okay,

686
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:43,879
Speaker 14: the Senate passes something, anything right right now?

687
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 4: Again, until the Senate passes anything, this is sort.

688
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,439
Speaker 14: Of your your you know, you're well, you're not making

689
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:52,279
Speaker 14: much progress, and use a derogatory sort of analogy, but

690
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 14: you're not doing anything productive until the Senate passes something.

691
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 14: The Senate passes somebody that puts a lot of pressure

692
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 14: on the House. Uh, and maybe that's when you start

693
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 14: to have those conversations. But okay, boys and girls, we

694
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,479
Speaker 14: can't get all of HR two, but we can get

695
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 14: a sodom reform. We can get some maybe return to Mexico.

696
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 14: I don't know, pick something out of it. We're not

697
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 14: going to get everything. That's where that language that you

698
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 14: just heard James Langford use about we're not going to

699
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 14: get everything.

700
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 4: Keeping in mind, James, though.

701
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 14: A good House member is now a senator runs every

702
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 14: six years, not every two. But yet that dynamic starts

703
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 14: to come into focus. So if you want to imagine

704
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 14: how you get to an end result here, the Senate

705
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,799
Speaker 14: has to pass something, they go back to the House

706
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:32,319
Speaker 14: and they sort of meet in the middle. That's how

707
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:33,920
Speaker 14: you get something done. I just don't see that happening

708
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 14: by Christmas.

709
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,799
Speaker 12: Yeah, it's definitely tough when we're speaking in terms of

710
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 12: just days here. But nick to the point of what

711
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 12: we've heard consistently from Senator Langford among them is the

712
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 12: idea that HR two passed the House with absolutely no

713
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 12: Democratic support. So, to paraphrase his words, essentially that it's

714
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 12: unfair for the Senate to expect to get enough Democrats

715
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 12: on board to pass something similarly, is that a reality

716
00:35:57,520 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 12: that just frankly doesn't really matter to this House of Representatives.

717
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,359
Speaker 14: No, again, that's the negotiating language you're going to use right,

718
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 14: and again there's going to be people in the House

719
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 14: who don't want to negotiate on anything. Keep in mind,

720
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,919
Speaker 14: Matt Gates has already proved he's not there to try

721
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:14,839
Speaker 14: and solve any problem. So take the crazy folks out

722
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 14: of the equation in the House. Again, does that raise

723
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 14: an issue about Mike Johnson's viability, Yes, it does, But

724
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 14: let's just focus on this issue at hand, that if

725
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 14: you are a conservative, a normal conservative republic, and you're

726
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 14: sort of the deciding votes and whether or not something

727
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 14: can pass on a bipartisan basis in the House.

728
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:34,839
Speaker 4: Are you listening to James?

729
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 5: Yeah?

730
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 14: I think you probably are you? Okay, Look, we get

731
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:41,759
Speaker 14: something here. We haven't got anything on immigration, especially on

732
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 14: the Biden administration. We're having any really good legislation on

733
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:47,799
Speaker 14: immigration a long time. That could be I could sell

734
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 14: that as a win in my conservative red district back

735
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 14: in South Carolina.

736
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,040
Speaker 2: Nick, I've got to ask you about your former boss

737
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,799
Speaker 2: before you go away, because this dictator thing seems to

738
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 2: be getting real. But then again, I don't know. Well, look,

739
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 2: it seemed like we're normalizing the dictator thing. Now this

740
00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 2: is Donald Trump in New York over the weekend, Following

741
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:10,400
Speaker 2: his interview with Sean.

742
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,800
Speaker 15: Hann Baker today in The New York Times, he said

743
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 15: that I want to be a dictator.

744
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:17,879
Speaker 4: I didn't say that.

745
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 2: I said I want to.

746
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 15: Be a dictator for one day. But the New York

747
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,759
Speaker 15: Times said, and you know why I wanted to be

748
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 15: a dictator because I want a wall, right, I want

749
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 15: a wall, and I want to drill rell drill.

750
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 1: All right.

751
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:34,399
Speaker 2: Well, wow, we won't get into whether he's built the wall,

752
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:38,239
Speaker 2: which he says, but is he doing this dictator thing

753
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,839
Speaker 2: just to get the media in a lather?

754
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 14: Oh yeah, absolutely, that's exactly he's trolling.

755
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:46,799
Speaker 4: That's exactly. He's done that before, you know, and he'll

756
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 4: do it again.

757
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 14: He'll start talking about running in twenty twenty four and

758
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 14: then again in twenty twenty eight. He knows how to

759
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:53,240
Speaker 14: play the media. He knows how to drive a media cycle.

760
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 14: This is what he does. But you know, that's the

761
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 14: first time I've heard that audio. I've seen it in

762
00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 14: print and so forth. But Joe, the thinking you out

763
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 14: at me there, he sounds really really tired. That is

764
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 14: that's not that's not the typical theories of the weather.

765
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 14: We got a cold, or he's that doesn't sound that

766
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 14: doesn't sound like Donald Trump to me.

767
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 4: So and by the way, skip ahead. He also said

768
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,840
Speaker 4: something over the weekend. He went back to the Access

769
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 4: Hollywood tape for the talking about a general.

770
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I heard that. Oh, if there was only time

771
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 2: to play all of this with Mick mulvaney. I'm gonna

772
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 2: call you when they come after me. Mick. This is Bloomberg.

773
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

774
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:35,880
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

775
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:39,280
Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

776
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

777
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

778
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 2: Last week for Congress to get anything done, at least

779
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 2: that's what they say this Monday. We'll see if the

780
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 2: schedule changes later in the week. You know, if we

781
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 2: get some progress on a border deal, for instance, we

782
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 2: could be working for the weekend and maybe into next week.

783
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,840
Speaker 2: Maybe we do creep up on Christmas. Anything is possible

784
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,840
Speaker 2: here in the Capitol. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington alongside

785
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 2: Kaylee Lines. As we read the tea leaves on a

786
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 2: possible border deal here Kaylee, knowing that President Zelenski will

787
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 2: be here tomorrow. Yep, he's of course coming for the

788
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:19,400
Speaker 2: big ass the last to ditch ask on Ukraine funding.

789
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 2: But that can't move until there is a deal on

790
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 2: the border. And interesting to hear from Chris Murphy over

791
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 2: the weekend, the Democratic lead negotiator that without any real

792
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 2: progress happening on Capitol Hill, maybe it's time for the

793
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 2: White House to start leaning in.

794
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 12: Yeah, there's kind of three parties involved in these negotiations, really,

795
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:39,439
Speaker 12: they're Senate Democrats, Senate Republicans, and then the White House

796
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:42,719
Speaker 12: wish initiated this emergency funding request in the first place,

797
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,360
Speaker 12: including not only funding for Ukraine, but funding for the

798
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 12: border as well. Money not necessarily policy changes, however, and

799
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:52,960
Speaker 12: I think that is wherein lies the rub when it's

800
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:57,280
Speaker 12: real policy changes that Republicans in Congress are looking for, and.

801
00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:59,080
Speaker 2: The reporting at the end of last week, it sure

802
00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 2: seemed like we were getting closer to something. The White

803
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 2: House says it's open to refining asylum law, open to

804
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 2: enhancing the deportation program. That's like halfway to a deal.

805
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:11,080
Speaker 12: It seems to me halfway though, Yeah, well it is

806
00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 12: not all the way. Maybe it's the second half of

807
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 12: the journey that proves a little bit harder. Let's add

808
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 12: a voice to this conversation, someone who has worked closely

809
00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 12: with a presidential campaign. Keeping in mind President Biden is

810
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 12: not just in the White House. He wants to stay

811
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 12: there yep, throughout twenty twenty five and beyond.

812
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 2: Be a massive issue on the campaign.

813
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 7: Yeah, period, a big challenge for him.

814
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:31,400
Speaker 12: Lonnie Chen's joining us now, he of course is a

815
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 12: former policy advisor on Mitt Romney's presidential campaign. Now at

816
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 12: the Hoover Institution and a lecture at Stanford Law. Lonnie,

817
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 12: thank you so much for joining us. If you are

818
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 12: not just the Biden White House, but the Biden campaign,

819
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 12: how important is it to get border policy right and

820
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 12: to do it quickly?

821
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,360
Speaker 5: It's crucial. I mean, if you look at all of

822
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 5: the recent polling about this presidential campaign, we know that

823
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 5: there are two issues that are really animating voters above

824
00:40:57,680 --> 00:40:59,840
Speaker 5: all else. One is the economy, the state of the

825
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 5: economy as it tends to be in every election, and

826
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 5: the second is immigration. It's really border security. And so

827
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 5: for President Biden and for his team, the ability to

828
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:14,319
Speaker 5: get a deal done on border security gives him the

829
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 5: potential to at least close the margin on this issue.

830
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:20,839
Speaker 5: The pull we saw from the Wall Street Journal over

831
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 5: the weekend, for example, tells us that former President Trump

832
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 5: has a significant advantage over President Biden when it comes

833
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 5: to public perceptions about handling border security and immigration. So

834
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:34,480
Speaker 5: this kind of a deal, if the President were to

835
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 5: be able to strike something that enhances border security that

836
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:41,600
Speaker 5: he can use to market during his campaign, would be

837
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 5: a significant point of advantage and something I know the

838
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 5: Biden campaign cares deeply about.

839
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 2: Arguably a gift we've heard argued before on this program

840
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:54,960
Speaker 2: for Joe Biden that Republicans are giving him a reason

841
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,240
Speaker 2: to take the border off the table in this campaign

842
00:41:57,239 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 2: while also taking care of our allies in Ukraine Israel.

843
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 2: Seems to be a little bit less of a lift

844
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:06,960
Speaker 2: in Congress. But Lani, I've got another poll for you,

845
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 2: and it's from the University of Michigan's Ross School of

846
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:12,759
Speaker 2: Business with the Financial Times. They put this together specifically

847
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:16,840
Speaker 2: on the matter of funding for Ukraine. Forty eight percent

848
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:21,280
Speaker 2: of registered voters half essentially say the US is spending

849
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 2: too much on aid for Ukraine. Sixty five percent of

850
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:29,360
Speaker 2: Republicans feel that way, and that's compared with only thirty

851
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 2: two percent of Democrats. So would you describe Republicans as

852
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 2: the party of No when it comes to Ukraine?

853
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:40,360
Speaker 5: Well, Joe, I would say that theirs skepticism broadly. The

854
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:42,719
Speaker 5: poll points out, you know, there's a substantial number of

855
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:45,400
Speaker 5: Democrats who also have doubts. I do think amongst Republicans

856
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:47,920
Speaker 5: those doubts are stronger, There's no question about it. I

857
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 5: would say the lack of what appears to be outcomes

858
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:55,080
Speaker 5: for all the spending so far, I think that troubles

859
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 5: some Republican voters. I think, frankly, the lack of some

860
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 5: transparency around on where this money is going. I think

861
00:43:01,600 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 5: the administration could afford to be a little bit more forthcoming,

862
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:06,759
Speaker 5: probably about at least how they've spent the money. I

863
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:10,880
Speaker 5: know that there are various controls in place, and that's important,

864
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 5: but fundamentally, when voters see a lot of money going

865
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:18,280
Speaker 5: out the door, don't necessarily see what's happening. We appear

866
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:22,279
Speaker 5: to be at virtual stalemate in Ukraine now. I think

867
00:43:22,320 --> 00:43:25,279
Speaker 5: there are concerns about where that money's going, and those

868
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 5: are going to be particularly acute amongst Republicans, and therefore

869
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:31,880
Speaker 5: no surprise that increasingly you're hearing voices in the Congress

870
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:35,800
Speaker 5: amongst Republicans say that there need to be more conditions

871
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 5: placed on this money, that there has to be a

872
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:40,719
Speaker 5: little bit more accountability, and maybe some even saying that

873
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:43,320
Speaker 5: the flow of funds needs to slow down or stop.

874
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,840
Speaker 12: Well, so, when we think about foreign policies, maybe something

875
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 12: that doesn't necessarily have as much weight when it comes

876
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 12: to the mind of the US voter. Is it so

877
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 12: much the domestic politics that matter, or the consideration of

878
00:43:55,520 --> 00:43:58,719
Speaker 12: the international politics at play, the message it sends. If

879
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,480
Speaker 12: the US says you know what you care, you're on

880
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 12: your own from here on out.

881
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:07,280
Speaker 5: I think the international politics are part of a scene setting.

882
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:09,920
Speaker 5: They're not necessarily going to be dispositive for voters. I

883
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 5: don't think there's been any real recent evidence that we've

884
00:44:13,239 --> 00:44:17,760
Speaker 5: seen presidential campaigns hinge on issues of national security directly,

885
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,759
Speaker 5: perhaps since two thousand and four, shortly after the nine

886
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:24,719
Speaker 5: to eleven attacks on New York and the Pentagon. But

887
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 5: I would say that for voters, the foreign policy issues

888
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 5: formulate help them to formulate their views of candidates and

889
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 5: whether a candidate is strong or weak, whether a candidate

890
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 5: is vital or not. I think these kinds of issues

891
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 5: clearly issues that have affected President Biden's approval ratings, for example,

892
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:50,360
Speaker 5: are impacted by his perceived lack of good handling in

893
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:53,400
Speaker 5: the foreign policy sphere. And the most recent polling we

894
00:44:53,440 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 5: have on this from over the weekend again suggests that

895
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:58,400
Speaker 5: a lot of Americans don't believe the president has handled

896
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:01,719
Speaker 5: the situation in Ukraine particularly well. They don't believe he's

897
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:03,759
Speaker 5: handled the situation the Middle East particularly well, even though

898
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:07,080
Speaker 5: there's nothing to directly blame him for. In many cases,

899
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 5: I think that there is this sense that how people

900
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 5: view his presidency generally leaks into their views of foreign

901
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 5: policy and vice versa.

902
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:20,359
Speaker 2: You know what it's like to be thirty five days

903
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 2: out from Iowa and I one of your thoughts on this.

904
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:26,560
Speaker 2: An Sealzer poll today. This is the Hawkeye State survey

905
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 2: NBC News. Des Moines register fifty one percent for Donald Trump,

906
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 2: the highest leads, the highest level ever recorded at this

907
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 2: point in a competitive Republican caucus. The next stop down

908
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:41,279
Speaker 2: the line here is Ron de Santis at nineteen, then

909
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 2: Nikki Hayley at sixteen. Are we all done here?

910
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 5: Well, we're not done till voters actually vote. But obviously,

911
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:52,160
Speaker 5: the indications from what are probably the most credible poll.

912
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 5: Ann Selzer's poll is the most credible poll we have

913
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 5: tended to have historically in Iowa tells us that in

914
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 5: that state, at least former President Trump has a commanding lead,

915
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:04,920
Speaker 5: And you know, I think, really the big question is

916
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 5: does he hold that magnitude lead. If he holds that

917
00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:12,400
Speaker 5: magnitude lead through the Iowa caucauses, this is going to

918
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:16,080
Speaker 5: be a pretty short nominating contest, I think. But let's say,

919
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 5: for example, the former president wins Iowa but only by

920
00:46:19,160 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 5: eight or nine points, or there's a strong second place

921
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:25,120
Speaker 5: finish from Nikki Haley, who, as you see in that

922
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:27,839
Speaker 5: poll right now, is running a close third. I think

923
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:31,280
Speaker 5: that those are the conditions that could create an interesting

924
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:35,080
Speaker 5: nominating contest. But if that result holds, if the former

925
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 5: president continues to be in a commanding position, if he's

926
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 5: up thirty points, there's really not much conversation to be had.

927
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:44,799
Speaker 5: So I think a lot of this is going to

928
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:47,040
Speaker 5: depend on what actually happens. And bear this in mind

929
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:50,320
Speaker 5: as well, Joe Iowa is very good at picking winners

930
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:54,920
Speaker 5: of Iowa, not necessarily of the entire presidential nominating cycle.

931
00:46:55,000 --> 00:46:58,439
Speaker 5: You know, we saw Rick Santorum barely edge out Mitt

932
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:00,840
Speaker 5: Romney when I worked on that campaign twenty twelve. We

933
00:47:00,920 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 5: saw Ted Cruz do well in twenty sixteen. So it's

934
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:08,759
Speaker 5: very hard for us to put, I think too much

935
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 5: stock in what happens in Iowa, except to say that

936
00:47:12,239 --> 00:47:14,560
Speaker 5: it has an impact on what happens in New Hampshire,

937
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:16,760
Speaker 5: South Carolina and subsequently.

938
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 12: Well, but it's not just Iowa where the former president

939
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:22,680
Speaker 12: has a commanding lead. It just perhaps is most commanding

940
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 12: in the Hawkeye state. Lonnie, you were talking a moment

941
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 12: ago about how foreign policy and showing strength in that

942
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:31,600
Speaker 12: regard as something that maybe voters find appealing in candidates.

943
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 12: Just how real of a chance do you think NICKI

944
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:36,320
Speaker 12: Haley has, Knowing that she does have that foreign policy

945
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 12: experience and she's been flexing it quite a lot on

946
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 12: the debate Stage's former ambassador to the Unan.

947
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 5: I think she presents a lot of really unique talents,

948
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:47,160
Speaker 5: and I think in this race has has a lot

949
00:47:47,160 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 5: of unique points of view that could be very helpful

950
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:53,080
Speaker 5: to her. Now the question will be can she get

951
00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:56,720
Speaker 5: enough oxygen to last through South Carolina, her home state,

952
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:59,759
Speaker 5: when she has the potential to do quite well. I

953
00:47:59,760 --> 00:48:03,400
Speaker 5: think in New Hampshire, where you have a primary for

954
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:06,279
Speaker 5: president where non Republicans can vote, that's sort of a

955
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 5: unique thing about in New Hampshire. That's why Chris Christy

956
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:13,120
Speaker 5: is developing his infrastructure there, It's why Nikki Haley has

957
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:15,840
Speaker 5: invested so much time there. Really, what it's going to

958
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 5: take is for her to not just burnish those foreign

959
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:22,239
Speaker 5: policy credentials, but be able to talk clearly about why

960
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:24,879
Speaker 5: she's the better choice. And all the polling reveals that

961
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:28,600
Speaker 5: while Donald Trump does beat Joe Biden, if you look

962
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:30,279
Speaker 5: at the head to head nationally as well as in

963
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 5: key states, if Nicki Haley were the Republican nominee, it

964
00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:36,719
Speaker 5: wouldn't even be particularly close. So Nicky Haley, at least

965
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:40,320
Speaker 5: from the data, appears to be the strongest Republican candidate.

966
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:43,040
Speaker 5: She's got to keep making that point and driving that

967
00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:45,760
Speaker 5: home through I when New Hampshire, in these early states,

968
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:48,040
Speaker 5: if she wants to have any chance at knocking off

969
00:48:48,400 --> 00:48:50,440
Speaker 5: someone who's a prohibitive favorite.

970
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 2: Sounds to me like we're going to know around South Carolina,

971
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:56,840
Speaker 2: and that's not far away a third or fourth contest

972
00:48:56,960 --> 00:49:00,120
Speaker 2: on the list here who the Republican nominee is going

973
00:48:59,920 --> 00:49:02,799
Speaker 2: to be? Lonnie, do you agree with that or are

974
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 2: we going to start having sugar plums in our heads

975
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,320
Speaker 2: about a contested convention like we do every four years.

976
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 5: You know, it's gonna be very hard for us to

977
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:13,359
Speaker 5: determine how contested this will be until, as you say,

978
00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:15,479
Speaker 5: we get past the first couple of states, and let's

979
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 5: not forget there will be a tremendous number of delegates

980
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:20,840
Speaker 5: on the line and Super Tuesday the first Tuesday in March,

981
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:24,799
Speaker 5: including California, which has i think it lasts count almost

982
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:28,040
Speaker 5: two hundred delegates to be awarded in that contest. And

983
00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:31,880
Speaker 5: so there are a lot of things yet to develop.

984
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 5: But certainly, if Donald Trump does as we expect he

985
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:37,800
Speaker 5: will do in these first three states, if he sweeps

986
00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:41,400
Speaker 5: these first three states states, it's very, very challenging to

987
00:49:41,520 --> 00:49:44,359
Speaker 5: see how this contest goes on much farther than than

988
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:45,120
Speaker 5: Super Tuesday.

989
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:47,480
Speaker 11: Lonnie.

990
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:49,680
Speaker 12: Joe's brought it up a few times so far this show,

991
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:52,600
Speaker 12: but the Dictator comments that the former president seems only

992
00:49:52,640 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 12: to have doubled down on Frankly, he just wants to

993
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:58,400
Speaker 12: be a dictator on day one. Is that a play

994
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:01,759
Speaker 12: for more media attention or do you think that's real?

995
00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 5: Well, you know, Mitt Romney over the weekend, you know,

996
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 5: when Meet the Press together, described a dess as a

997
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:10,759
Speaker 5: human gumball machine. And I think that that's kind of

998
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:15,359
Speaker 5: an interesting and probably apt comparison when you're talking about

999
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:18,479
Speaker 5: about the former president. Yeah, I think that he has

1000
00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:22,440
Speaker 5: a way of taking these comments and driving them amongst

1001
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 5: his voters, his constituency, to to continue to demonstrate the

1002
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 5: degree to which he believes that the so called mainstream

1003
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:32,960
Speaker 5: media is out of step with with his voters, with

1004
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:36,719
Speaker 5: his supporters, and so I, like others, don't necessarily put

1005
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:38,200
Speaker 5: a whole lot of stock in it. Look, this is

1006
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:40,879
Speaker 5: not the kind of thing you want at presidential candidate saying,

1007
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:43,719
Speaker 5: I understand that. But at the end of the day,

1008
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 5: for the former president, it is part of his persona,

1009
00:50:48,320 --> 00:50:50,279
Speaker 5: It is part of who he is, It is part

1010
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:53,799
Speaker 5: of who he projects, and I don't think he sees

1011
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:56,239
Speaker 5: it as particularly problematic, which is why you know, you

1012
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 5: haven't seen him try to even walk it back, and

1013
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:02,160
Speaker 5: contrary to that, actually double down on these comments. And

1014
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:04,960
Speaker 5: so I don't think he perceives it as a problem.

1015
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:08,200
Speaker 5: I think he believes that it is a demonstration of strength,

1016
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:11,440
Speaker 5: and to our conversation earlier, strength is something that matters

1017
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 5: a lot in these not just primary elections, but elections

1018
00:51:14,239 --> 00:51:14,760
Speaker 5: more broadly.

1019
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:18,920
Speaker 2: At the Hoover Institution of course. A veteran of the

1020
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 2: Mitt Romney campaign, Lonnie Chen, it's great to see you

1021
00:51:22,040 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 2: joining us live from New York here on Bloomberg sound On.

1022
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:27,560
Speaker 2: Thanks for sharing the insights as always, Lennie, and don't

1023
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 2: be a stranger. Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast.

1024
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:35,239
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

1025
00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:37,719
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can

1026
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:40,759
Speaker 2: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one

1027
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:45,280
Speaker 2: pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.