Speaker 1: Check it out. Man Now down Now Tuesday, April nine,
Speaker 1: Beating the Book Podcast. It's Gill Alexander. It's time for
Speaker 1: a tradition unlike any other, the Masters, specifically betting on
Speaker 1: the Masters, Golf's first major. Will do it two different ways.
Speaker 1: First with the man who literally wrote the book on
Speaker 1: strokes gained analysis at Augusta. Joe Peter, author of the
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen Masters Preview, the Joe Peter Tour Guy Masters Preview.
Speaker 1: Really unique stuff from Joe. We'll get into that first.
Speaker 1: And then if you don't like the analytics as much
Speaker 1: as you like sort of a championship formula, much like
Speaker 1: I did with the n C Double A basketball tournament.
Speaker 1: Dave Tindall from Betfair and other outlets including Rotor World.
Speaker 1: He's got your championship formula if you will trend analysis
Speaker 1: for the Masters, and who does it reveal as the
Speaker 1: one and only champion of the twenty nineteen Masters. Now
Speaker 1: keep in mind last year he had Ricky Fowler. Ricky
Speaker 1: Fowler finished in second, So no guarantees ever, but a
Speaker 1: great exercise in its own right. Joe Peter, Dave Tindel,
Speaker 1: The Masters on the Beating the Book Podcast enjoy now
Speaker 1: back to a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander,
Speaker 1: broadcasting live from our Van studios in Las Vegas. Don't
Speaker 1: forget later on the show today Todd Wish neev You're like,
Speaker 1: who's Todd Wish? Now? If you're watching the Showtime Macau
Speaker 1: docuseries Action about sports betting. Uh, Todd is the gentleman
Speaker 1: who sits at the South Point and bets all day long. Uh.
Speaker 1: Todd is a gregarious guy and has great stories and
Speaker 1: is a wonderfully smart, funny guys. So he's gonna be
Speaker 1: in a studio with us. Uh the second hour, we'll
Speaker 1: try to cook some stories out of him first though,
Speaker 1: making his return to the show. U a special numbers
Speaker 1: game investigation reveals once again that it is Masters week
Speaker 1: and this gentleman literally wrote the book on strokes gained analysis,
Speaker 1: specifically to Augusta heretofore not available. Ladies and gentlemen, it's
Speaker 1: my friend Joe Pete. A good morning to you, Joe Gail.
Speaker 1: It's a plugure to be here at the Masters. Weeke
Speaker 1: intro is nice, but I think what we're really excited
Speaker 1: about is the possible World series preview with the Minnesota
Speaker 1: Twins visiting Queens, New York to take on the Mats.
Speaker 1: This might be the most highly anticipated in the league,
Speaker 1: Max since the Subway Series of the late nineties. You know,
Speaker 1: you know the problem with you say that, Joe is
Speaker 1: my initial reaction is, oh, wait, did Joe actually do
Speaker 1: analysis on this and come up with us? And I'm
Speaker 1: guessing not. Perhaps the baseball the baseball sheets are closed. Yes,
Speaker 1: the baseball sheets are closed, Joe. So listen, You've been
Speaker 1: on a couple of times. You were kind enough to
Speaker 1: come in studio to to talk about your Masters preview.
Speaker 1: Joe Pete has Tour Guide, a twenty nineteen Masters preview
Speaker 1: available on Amazon and everywhere else that books are sold.
Speaker 1: But for those who did not, h he are those
Speaker 1: two previous appearances, please, could you explain first of all,
Speaker 1: you know, your transition from baseball to golf and what
Speaker 1: it is that you actually did manually. Um that just
Speaker 1: it didn't exist before until you actually rolled up your
Speaker 1: sleeves and did the work. Uh Gil, I will get
Speaker 1: to that. I'm gonna touch on what you opened with
Speaker 1: for thirty seconds though about my first appearance back in
Speaker 1: in studio in uh January, I was on for I
Speaker 1: think an hour. UM that served as the kickoff for
Speaker 1: the book. It was a wonderful kickoff. So I thank
Speaker 1: you and you are listeners because we all have the
Speaker 1: same passion. Uh. And specifically there was a podcast going
Speaker 1: you know for their shout out to that or a
Speaker 1: call back to that. UM. This morning there is a
Speaker 1: one of the more popular golf broadcast is a house
Speaker 1: from d C, the old the Simmons Buddy who has
Speaker 1: the Fairway Rolling podcast, and on it was a gentleman
Speaker 1: named Chris Vernon and Chris specifically talked about listening on
Speaker 1: Visa and hearing about the book. When Chris Felika called in,
Speaker 1: that's when he was like, well, if if this is
Speaker 1: something Chris listens to, I'm going to pick up the book.
Speaker 1: And he talked all about the book today on this
Speaker 1: podcast and Bee notes to me uh and that all
Speaker 1: goes back to the kickoff on your show, So thank
Speaker 1: you for that. Chris is a friend of show who's
Speaker 1: been on the show several times. Great great basketball guy
Speaker 1: from Memphis. But that's great that he that he uh
Speaker 1: found interest in them. That's awesome. Yes. So just this background, right,
Speaker 1: I transitioned from baseball to golf because I saw what
Speaker 1: I thought was a green field of opportunity to write
Speaker 1: about golf data and maybe even make some discoveries. It
Speaker 1: kind of reminded me of, Hey, this is what it is,
Speaker 1: what it might have been like to be a baseball
Speaker 1: writer in the mid nineties at the early part of
Speaker 1: the UH saber metric revolution. So that drew me to it.
Speaker 1: And so the idea for the book was to introduce
Speaker 1: UH sports fans and maybe golf fans who weren't into
Speaker 1: the stro gained uh, you know, movement to it, and
Speaker 1: to try to tell, you know, if I have a skill,
Speaker 1: it's not you know, it wasn't inventing this stuff, but
Speaker 1: hopefully it's telling the stories maybe that make it digestible
Speaker 1: and relatable to UH people who aren't you know, computer scientists. Uh.
Speaker 1: So that's how it got started. And in terms of
Speaker 1: as I was digging into the world of golf data,
Speaker 1: um I, one of these shortcomings has always been that
Speaker 1: none of the majors has ever had short strokes gained
Speaker 1: data because the PGA Tour doesn't run those events. UM,
Speaker 1: you know, sort of going back to the advent of
Speaker 1: strokes gained and that still hasn't changed in terms of
Speaker 1: the Masters. It has changed at the PGA Championship, but
Speaker 1: not the Masters. And while I was researching, I stumbled
Speaker 1: onto a pristine data set that nobody had ever touched
Speaker 1: on that was sort of embedded in the Master's website
Speaker 1: for the event. I then, um, as we talked about before,
Speaker 1: I handed he at allOur hundred plus strokes into a
Speaker 1: spreadsheet that was taken by the eight seven competitors and
Speaker 1: use that database to then apply the strokes gain framework
Speaker 1: and come up with some insights on the Masters that
Speaker 1: have never been available before. It seems they'd be very
Speaker 1: well received. H It's fun um and it hopefully it'll
Speaker 1: give some people some insight to this year's event. Wait
Speaker 1: will that's for sure. I like the word I use
Speaker 1: I inhaled your book. I really did like it was
Speaker 1: just phenomenal. I don't want you to give away all
Speaker 1: the funding because I want people to go out obviously
Speaker 1: and then get your book. But if you could, because
Speaker 1: I know you come up with, uh, there's a list
Speaker 1: of about ten golfers in there. I think that you
Speaker 1: uh that you highlight in the end. Why don't why
Speaker 1: don't we name a few off the bottom end of
Speaker 1: that ten if we could sure sure, and and we'll look,
Speaker 1: you know, let's I'll even start with one that's uh
Speaker 1: that I have in the top four. I had Justin
Speaker 1: Rose at number four, and I'd certainly stick with that.
Speaker 1: And but what I will say is because all of
Speaker 1: us care about markets and value in pricing, and I
Speaker 1: firmly believe that Justin Rose and not the trio of
Speaker 1: golfers that he makes up in terms of the betting favorites,
Speaker 1: I firmly believe Justin Rose should be the betting favorite
Speaker 1: for this tournament, not Roy McElroy or not Dustin Johnson.
Speaker 1: So I will see value on Justin Rose in head
Speaker 1: to head matchups where he is a plus money against
Speaker 1: both of those golfers. And in fact that that was
Speaker 1: one of the first things I jumped on yesterday when
Speaker 1: I was able to uh. And really the sort of
Speaker 1: history there is that not that those all three of
Speaker 1: them are exceptional golfers. They are the top tier of
Speaker 1: the p g A Tour. But Justin Rose has by
Speaker 1: far the best track record at Augusta. And as I
Speaker 1: do point out the book, um, of course, history matters
Speaker 1: more to Augusta by far in terms of correlation from
Speaker 1: year to year than any other stop on the PGA tour.
Speaker 1: So when I put those you know, current form plus
Speaker 1: more blast year form plus course history, it makes Justin
Speaker 1: Rose to me, uh, the favorite over over those other two,
Speaker 1: over Rory and DJ. So that that's sort of a touch.
Speaker 1: Why don't you throw out another name and I'll i'll,
Speaker 1: I'll give some thoughts. Okay, let me let me give
Speaker 1: you a name that's not necessarily on your list. I
Speaker 1: can't remember if he was in your top ten, but
Speaker 1: he's something I mentioned. I don't know if I said
Speaker 1: it on this show yesterday and behind the book with
Speaker 1: j Rude, I can't remember what show I said it on.
Speaker 1: But when I've made my bets and they are informed
Speaker 1: by your book, believe me, and Justin Rose is one
Speaker 1: of them. But I have this thing in my head
Speaker 1: where I'm like, you know who I didn't bet on.
Speaker 1: I didn't bet on Bubba Watson. And one of the
Speaker 1: things that I remember, So it's funny what what details
Speaker 1: you remember from a book. But one of the things
Speaker 1: that I correct me if I'm wrong here is that
Speaker 1: when you looked at Bubba Watson's eighteen Masters, he was
Speaker 1: number three in driving distance and I want to say
Speaker 1: number two in driving accuracy. Joe, how does he lose
Speaker 1: that tournament? Yeah, he's got I think the way I
Speaker 1: summed it all up in a neat sentence for people
Speaker 1: who don't like numbers, is he drove the ball as
Speaker 1: accurately as Barnard, longer and as far as Rory McIlroy.
Speaker 1: And that is a deadly combination for a golf course,
Speaker 1: and especially Augusta, when you know closer to the whole,
Speaker 1: you know is so important based on what iron you
Speaker 1: have in your hand, because those greens have small target areas. Uh.
Speaker 1: And yes he squandered that. In fact, as I point
Speaker 1: out in the book, his strokes gained off the tea
Speaker 1: was nearly nine uh nine strokes, which is that that
Speaker 1: is standard deviations better uh than than the rest of
Speaker 1: the field. You just don't usually see that sort of
Speaker 1: spread on that skill um on a PGA Tour events,
Speaker 1: So he has got to Yeah, he was three strokes
Speaker 1: better than John Rum and Rory McIlroy. Uh in terms
Speaker 1: of strokes gained off the tea. That's a huge advantage
Speaker 1: that I would say he squandered last year. Uh, and
Speaker 1: I think it it bodes poorly for the future because
Speaker 1: he cannot do that well right here. It's just impossible. So,
Speaker 1: you know, if he's shown a weakness with with his approach,
Speaker 1: shot and putting at at the Masters um in the
Speaker 1: last you know, especially last year. In terms of his
Speaker 1: current form um, I think he's overvalued. He really is
Speaker 1: hit or miss at at Augusta. He's really had three
Speaker 1: only three good tournaments last year and then the two
Speaker 1: he won, and then with a lot of stinkers in there,
Speaker 1: and that is not generally the profile of some of
Speaker 1: the true Masters of Augusta. They do well year after
Speaker 1: year after year, and they're very consistent. Talking to Joe Peter,
Speaker 1: the author of the nineteen Masters Preview, Joe PETA's Tour
Speaker 1: Guide presents a twenty nineteen Masters Preview. We have a
Speaker 1: shot of the cover there for people who might want
Speaker 1: to just look and find it visually, Jeff, a little
Speaker 1: shot of the there. It is right there. Joe Peters
Speaker 1: Tour Guide Presents Masters Preview includes it never before seen
Speaker 1: Augusta National Strokes Game Report. Let me ask about on
Speaker 1: rum Joe, because John is a guy who I sort of, uh,
Speaker 1: just a little dirty analogy. Used to call the the
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars of sports bettors. In other words, until the
Speaker 1: Jaguars had their really good season in twenty eighteen eighteen,
Speaker 1: that is the year before last, they were always the
Speaker 1: professional betterters team of choice during the off season, like
Speaker 1: this is the year, this is the year where the
Speaker 1: Jaguars are going to do something, and it just never happened,
Speaker 1: right Like, year after year after year, it never happened.
Speaker 1: John Rum feels that way when it comes to Major's.
Speaker 1: How do you feel about him entering the twenty nineteen Masters,
Speaker 1: because he's he's had some indication that success could be
Speaker 1: headed his way, that's for sure. Yeah, he's he's well
Speaker 1: suited for this course. He's only played it twice, he's
Speaker 1: made the cut both times, and last year he played
Speaker 1: I think it was he was finished fourth alone. Uh,
Speaker 1: he played very well. And when you look at how
Speaker 1: he did it, it wasn't with a hot putter that
Speaker 1: you think might uh you know, we would have more
Speaker 1: variability to it. It was more if he does have
Speaker 1: a hot putter, this is his tournament to win. So
Speaker 1: I think he definitely fits that you have to sort
Speaker 1: of love the value um range that he's in. You
Speaker 1: know that the uh, you know, not being in the
Speaker 1: top top tier guys. UM, he certainly does get a
Speaker 1: lot of chatter and his I think whether he has
Speaker 1: the um, you know, sort of the emotional stability to
Speaker 1: bake his way around that, you know, what can be
Speaker 1: a frustrating course might be you know, I don't have
Speaker 1: to measure that, so I just go by the numbers
Speaker 1: and I say, yeah, this guy is a guy I
Speaker 1: expect to be in the top five this year. M Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna purposely leave out one of your your number
Speaker 1: one here on this and let people find that discover
Speaker 1: that in your book. Uh. Tiger Woods obviously featured prominently
Speaker 1: in your twenty nineteen Masters preview. You tell an amazing
Speaker 1: story about Tiger and probably the how can I put this,
Speaker 1: the the stat that no one was aware of at
Speaker 1: the time you do this great research. UM. Portion of
Speaker 1: the book is is dedicated to this amazing streak that
Speaker 1: Tiger had back in the day. UM. We can describe that.
Speaker 1: But as as you point out, Tigers, the assessment of
Speaker 1: Tiger is different from the assessment of anybody else. In
Speaker 1: other words, when you say, listen, know what at Tiger's
Speaker 1: age really ever wins the Masters typically, But Tiger is
Speaker 1: not your average golfer, So how do you and certainly
Speaker 1: has not had your average career. So you make the
Speaker 1: case that as great as we thought he was, he's
Speaker 1: even better by the numbers. How seriously do you take
Speaker 1: Tiger here? Very very do not sleep on Tiger this year?
Speaker 1: Uh And and there's a couple of reasons for that. Gil.
Speaker 1: When I wrote the book, UM, I had a something
Speaker 1: that I called par uh performance verse average per round
Speaker 1: and it's it's supposed to be a The idea was
Speaker 1: it that that it would be a one stat you know,
Speaker 1: kind of fits all way to rank golfers. And because
Speaker 1: it's it's it's a scale versus the average PGA Tour
Speaker 1: pro And Tiger was right there in the right outside
Speaker 1: the top ten as of eighteen. But he's actually played
Speaker 1: better in the first three months this year than the
Speaker 1: rounds that have dropped off because he didn't play too
Speaker 1: many rents. You know, he had he played less rounds
Speaker 1: than than all those top guys last year. And it
Speaker 1: doesn't feel like it the first three months of the
Speaker 1: year because he has not. You know, he hasn't been
Speaker 1: in the featured groups on Sunday, but he has very steadily. Remember,
Speaker 1: you know, a good analytics model will look at every
Speaker 1: stroke played right and and we'll judge them all equally,
Speaker 1: not just the ones that were on TV or there.
Speaker 1: You know, it's it's better to finish twelve two tournaments
Speaker 1: in a row than to finish fourth and a missed cut, right,
Speaker 1: because you're gonna look at all the rounds together, and
Speaker 1: Tiger is playing very well. His current form is is fine.
Speaker 1: I'm sure you know we can look at three putting.
Speaker 1: If he's gonna three putt, that's gonna be a problem. Um.
Speaker 1: But in terms of just his whole body of work,
Speaker 1: the form is fine. His course history at Augusta is unparalleled.
Speaker 1: And I and as far as you know someone his
Speaker 1: age not winning before or or you know they they
Speaker 1: tend to drop off at this age. Oh, he's dropped off.
Speaker 1: But he's exactly if you kind of look at his
Speaker 1: aging curb, he's exactly where you'd expect the forty three
Speaker 1: year old golfer to be, who was three strokes plus
Speaker 1: better than everybody else on tour at his peak age
Speaker 1: nine now he's about a stroke and three quarter better. Um,
Speaker 1: which is you know, that's not DJ, that's not Rory,
Speaker 1: and that's not Justin. But it's right there in the
Speaker 1: next year. Uh So, yeah, because of his course history.
Speaker 1: Absolutely don't sleep on Tiger, you know, is the value
Speaker 1: ever there in his futures almost positively? Not because of
Speaker 1: the premium. But I am going to be sappointed if
Speaker 1: Tiger is not a part of the Sunday conversation. Okay, Joe,
Speaker 1: we leave you with this little rapid fire, give me,
Speaker 1: give me ten seconds, the little little thumbnail on each
Speaker 1: of these names, brooks kepco Oh, he's not being talked
Speaker 1: about enough. I'm kind of surprised. I'm a little worried
Speaker 1: about his mental state if he's going on a diet
Speaker 1: for a swimsuit photo shoot, um and losing you know,
Speaker 1: twenty pounds. But absolutely that is a guy that is
Speaker 1: not being talked about enough. Meziama, Yeah, say, you know,
Speaker 1: same sort of thing there. If there's any sex thing
Speaker 1: is value. I think he falls right into the Paul Casey, Decki,
Speaker 1: Manto Yama, Jason Day circle of guys that are sort
Speaker 1: of my favorite values in the futures market. M Okay
Speaker 1: and uh and finally let me think who who else
Speaker 1: can we go to? You? What what name would you
Speaker 1: like to bring up? Uh? You know, everybody has a
Speaker 1: deep value and there and I would be fading guys
Speaker 1: like Molinari and Woodland because of of course history. Uh.
Speaker 1: The name that is most interesting to me, that is
Speaker 1: who I don't think has a chance to win, because
Speaker 1: I think we do our winner is going to come
Speaker 1: from the the the you know, what's say the forty
Speaker 1: year underguys, forty two one or under guys. But Patrick
Speaker 1: Cantley looks a lot to me like Tommy Fleetwood and
Speaker 1: Tony fenwe did last year, guys that would never on
Speaker 1: TV for the six months prior. But you look at
Speaker 1: the body of work, you're like, holy cow, this is
Speaker 1: the top twelve, top fifteen guy who's rising. And we
Speaker 1: know what Fleetwood and Finale did in all the major's
Speaker 1: last year in terms of top tenning and constantly being
Speaker 1: on the board. I think Patrick Cantley is your guy
Speaker 1: to you know this year that maybe you know, a
Speaker 1: lot of people probably haven't seen him take a stroke
Speaker 1: because like I said, he doesn't play on the weekends
Speaker 1: on TV. But that's a name I think that that
Speaker 1: we'll be talking about over the course of the year.
Speaker 1: All right, Felika has got to take it on, can't land.
Speaker 1: I know that for sure? From yesterday. Joe peta author
Speaker 1: of a nine Masters preview. You can follow him on
Speaker 1: Twitter at Magic rat s F Joe, good luck. I
Speaker 1: know you're staying at home. You're soaking at all in
Speaker 1: it before the tournament started, not at work this week,
Speaker 1: big week for you. Enjoy it all man, Thank you, Joe,
Speaker 1: Peter the best in the business. Right there again A
Speaker 1: Masters preview. Check it out on Amazon and anywhere books
Speaker 1: are sold. As always guys. Support for today's show comes
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Speaker 1: Beating the book and at vs in Live. This is
Speaker 1: a numbers game with Gil Alexander, broadcasting only on the
Speaker 1: Vegas Stats and Information Network. Gidiots will believe in analytics
Speaker 1: and analytics, statistics and more are used to win wagers
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Speaker 1: South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander. It is
Speaker 1: our number two and numbers game right here at Visa
Speaker 1: in the Vegas Stats in Information Network. Serious exta channel
Speaker 1: to a four, Visa dot com, the visapp, Fubo, TVs
Speaker 1: Link TV Skill Alexander Jeff Parls is here as well. UM.
Speaker 1: Coming up this hour Todd Wishnef from Showtimes action docuseries
Speaker 1: H the gentleman that bets here in the South Point
Speaker 1: on a day to day basis. He had the storyline
Speaker 1: with his UH friend who comes into town. Lovely young
Speaker 1: lady who sits and UH watches him bet H so
Speaker 1: interesting guy who is very smart, um and has some
Speaker 1: great stories. We can't wait to be uh to uh
Speaker 1: have him in studio because when you're around Todd, you
Speaker 1: can't help but smile. Great guy. So he's coming up.
Speaker 1: Last thing about the NBA, which I didn't get in
Speaker 1: the last segment, I heard on a national show yesterday,
Speaker 1: national betting show there on on the Old TV yesterday
Speaker 1: that the Toronto game didn't mean anything tonight. That is incorrect.
Speaker 1: The Raptors do have something to play for tonight. Raptors
Speaker 1: are seven point favorites at Minnesota. Uh. The comment was
Speaker 1: made that the Raptors nothing to play for because they
Speaker 1: can't catch Milwalkee. But if the Raptors win in a
Speaker 1: potential NBA Finals against the Warriors, they would have the
Speaker 1: home court advantage. So the Raptors do have something to
Speaker 1: play for tonight at Minnesota, So don't make that mistake
Speaker 1: in your handicapping tonight. Before we get to Todd Wishnev though,
Speaker 1: let us continue with our master's coverage. We love having
Speaker 1: this gentleman on UM and we've been blessed to have
Speaker 1: him on the podcast in year's pass also on this
Speaker 1: show from does work with Betfair, with Rhoda World. He's
Speaker 1: all over the place from the UK. We have video
Speaker 1: here audio on him. Audio, But Dave Tindall, good, good afternoon,
Speaker 1: I should say to you, Dave, Yeah, afternoon here in
Speaker 1: the UK. Hi girl, how are you. I'm doing very well, David.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I have ever thanked you on air,
Speaker 1: and this is sort of harkening back to a horrible experience,
Speaker 1: but you were very kind when we had the horrible
Speaker 1: shooting here in Las Vegas, Um several falls ago, not
Speaker 1: this past fall, but the fall before that. You were
Speaker 1: kind enough to send me an email just as a
Speaker 1: kind thing, hoping that I was okay. So I just
Speaker 1: wanted to thank you on air. That was very sweet.
Speaker 1: Of you to do so, sir, very welcome. Yes, um,
Speaker 1: let us talk about the Masters. This is something obviously.
Speaker 1: You do golf tournaments every week of the year. You
Speaker 1: analyze them. By the way, say hello please to our friend,
Speaker 1: my friend Dave Kilner, who you do a wonderful podcast
Speaker 1: with over there at William Hill. Uh. Listen, you do
Speaker 1: a piece on trends. So I had Joe Peter on
Speaker 1: earlier this morning. You are aware of his book, Yeah,
Speaker 1: with the story. I love that book. Yeah, isn't it great.
Speaker 1: It's phenomenal that he did that all manually, put that
Speaker 1: all together. Yeah, it's incredible. We've we've mentioned it in
Speaker 1: a podcast, actually indicted it today on and I gave
Speaker 1: Joe's book a number mentions because it's it's great reading, fascinating.
Speaker 1: It's kind of a secret, isn't it that we didn't
Speaker 1: know was there? And there it is in front of
Speaker 1: our eyes. Joe done all the work for us. Brilliant.
Speaker 1: That's right, It's wonderful. I'm glad and he'll be thrilled
Speaker 1: to know that you You mentioned that across the pond,
Speaker 1: as we like to say here. You do this amazing
Speaker 1: thing though, where you know We're just coming off the
Speaker 1: college basketball season here the United States and before the
Speaker 1: final tournament um, which we affectionately call March Madness. I
Speaker 1: do something every year called this is the Championship formula,
Speaker 1: and every year it works. There's one exception a team
Speaker 1: got there that didn't immediately ascribed to the to the
Speaker 1: Championship formula. You do something similar for the Masters, which,
Speaker 1: of course the fact that it's the on the same
Speaker 1: course every year lends itself to this kind of exercise.
Speaker 1: Would you go through that for us, sir? Yeah, So
Speaker 1: these are based on tenure trends that I've looked at
Speaker 1: down the years, and before I'll say this before we
Speaker 1: start that it's all very well and nice and pretty
Speaker 1: and interesting because last year it picked out Ricky Fowler
Speaker 1: who finished running up just one shot back of the
Speaker 1: of the leader, and two years before that Dustin Johnson,
Speaker 1: who at the time was about one shot. We think
Speaker 1: DJ is going to be eight nine to one, but
Speaker 1: that year two thousand, sixteen to one, and he didn't
Speaker 1: really have much going for him. Augustus, So it has
Speaker 1: it has worked rather nicely the last couple of years.
Speaker 1: After say absolutely, yeah, So again, you know, we should
Speaker 1: put their disclaimer. You're absolutely right, not that this will
Speaker 1: guarantee you, but it is an interesting exercise to go
Speaker 1: through for sure. Yeah, and as you say, because Astern National,
Speaker 1: where we see every year, I think the trends do
Speaker 1: work better than they might in other majors. So let's
Speaker 1: go through them. Then. So this applies to at least
Speaker 1: nine of the last ten Masters winners and sometimes all ten.
Speaker 1: So these are the factors aged under forty Sorry Tiger,
Speaker 1: sorry Phil ranked in the world's top thirty, played in
Speaker 1: at least one Masters. I think we all know that
Speaker 1: one in the fuzzies L nine stats had a top
Speaker 1: thirty er Augustus. So you need to go there and
Speaker 1: need to have shown something at the cost before had
Speaker 1: season surprising when we'll knock out some Yeah, let me
Speaker 1: repeat that one because your audio drafted posted a top
Speaker 1: ten earlier this season. Yeah, that's right and surprising. That
Speaker 1: wouldn't knock out Tony Fee Now who's not posted one
Speaker 1: in the calendar year, So that that knocks him out,
Speaker 1: not the defending champion, so Patrick read that puts the
Speaker 1: kibosh on him, unfortunately. And the and the one that
Speaker 1: people don't like is the not the world number one.
Speaker 1: People go that can't be right. People don't feel good
Speaker 1: about that is true? Yeah? Yeah, So in a bit
Speaker 1: of a hot potato, do you say that, do you
Speaker 1: have that phrase? And we do? We do, Yes, we
Speaker 1: have that. It's been passed, passed back and forth year.
Speaker 1: So it's landed this week. It's landed in the hands
Speaker 1: of Justin Row So that would roll him out, Oh right,
Speaker 1: because he's he's the world number one, number one? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Does that? Does that put DJ back in play? Then?
Speaker 1: Well it doesn't because there's some more trends. Yeah, some
Speaker 1: more trends as we go down to that eliminates i
Speaker 1: would say, of the field. But then we've got some
Speaker 1: other kind of filters that I've I've put this time. Uh.
Speaker 1: Ten of the last ten had had two top fifteens
Speaker 1: that season. So again that's at all just a check
Speaker 1: on current form. This is the one that knocks other
Speaker 1: people out. So nine of the last ten Masters winners
Speaker 1: have had the top fifteen in the stroke play event
Speaker 1: in March or April. So that's a very kind of
Speaker 1: latest them to test of way form is and someone
Speaker 1: for example, who would fail that Justin Thomas and Bryson
Speaker 1: Dish Jambo not had a top fifteen in the stroke
Speaker 1: play in March or April, so that's those two, um
Speaker 1: put away Loui us. This is a new trend. I've
Speaker 1: put in this and eliminate people pen winners had posted
Speaker 1: a win on American soil within the previous two years,
Speaker 1: eight of ten, someone like Louis. Yeah, yeah, I had
Speaker 1: had to win within two yees, so someone like Louis
Speaker 1: Eustay and there's never one on American soil, which is crazy,
Speaker 1: but it's but it's true. Is that would that would
Speaker 1: get rid of? Yeah? It isn't it given how I mean,
Speaker 1: he's been running up in all four majors, it's when
Speaker 1: they open, but it's just never one on American soil.
Speaker 1: So maybe it's asking a lot for him to make
Speaker 1: Augusta Nashal the scene of that first winter that rules
Speaker 1: out him, and then another one that the final one,
Speaker 1: which people again are a bit kind of really but
Speaker 1: but it's true. Is that eight of the last ten
Speaker 1: Masters winners had a starting price of twenty to one
Speaker 1: or higher, So guys under twenty two one, the stats
Speaker 1: and are not good for them. So if you if
Speaker 1: you look back, Bubba went off Um with his wins.
Speaker 1: Adam Scott, Yeah, he was over twenty one. Sergio, I
Speaker 1: think it's about thirty five to one. So even though
Speaker 1: these these are quality of players I'm I'm telling you about,
Speaker 1: they at the time of their master's Wednesday will learn.
Speaker 1: So it's another I mean, we've already said Justin Rostum
Speaker 1: has gone because of world number one. He would go
Speaker 1: via that start. The only exceptions McElroy, Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: the only exceptions over the last eleven years Jordan's speed
Speaker 1: and Mickelson were shorter than Yes, that's right. So it's
Speaker 1: an ideally we want ten out of ten, but eight
Speaker 1: out of ten is still quite strong, I think. All right,
Speaker 1: So where does that bring us? Dave? Yeah, it brings
Speaker 1: us to one manner. When I start start doing these things,
Speaker 1: I genuinely have no idea how they're going to work out,
Speaker 1: and some well I think we lost Dave right there
Speaker 1: for good, and then it's going to okay, yeah, we
Speaker 1: got your back, Go ahead, Dave, go ahead. Yeah. Sometimes
Speaker 1: I do all this work and I think, at the
Speaker 1: end all that work, it's going why did I even bother?
Speaker 1: But this time it come out with the players around
Speaker 1: thirty five to one, and the man is hid Dickie
Speaker 1: Mattsi Yama. Yeah, I didn't see that one coming either. Yeah,
Speaker 1: did Ricky Fowler get in there at all? Day? Very
Speaker 1: very very close for Ricky Fowler, he needed to have
Speaker 1: a um A top thirty in Texas last week and
Speaker 1: he did. The only border line kind of factor for
Speaker 1: him is whether he's under twenty two one. I don't
Speaker 1: know what he is in Vegas, but he is. He
Speaker 1: twenties in Vegas, he's yeah, So that knocks him out
Speaker 1: on that, and I think all but one book he
Speaker 1: has him under twenty two one in the UK as well,
Speaker 1: So I've kind of gone with well, that's you know,
Speaker 1: that's the majority. So Ricky's close, but he is the
Speaker 1: only one who fits them you if you run through
Speaker 1: so his kind of stats. So he's twenty seven years old,
Speaker 1: which is good in the top thirty in the world.
Speaker 1: He's played in seven Masters already. UM he's got a fifth,
Speaker 1: the seventh and eleventh, nineteenth last year. He said four
Speaker 1: top fifteens this season, was third at the Farmer's Insurance
Speaker 1: tie dates at Sawgrass on his last stroke play start,
Speaker 1: and he's one on American soil in the last two years.
Speaker 1: People might have forgotten that one. He won the w
Speaker 1: GC Bridge Stone in two thousand and seventeen. So ticks
Speaker 1: every box. Skill takes every box. Yeah. For those who
Speaker 1: don't like the strokes gained analysis, there's a way to
Speaker 1: look at it, sort of a sort of a a
Speaker 1: trend narrowing version of a championship formula hit Dicky Matiyama.
Speaker 1: So in the end day when we're talking to Dave Tindle,
Speaker 1: you can follow him on Twitter at David Tindle Golf.
Speaker 1: You spelled Tindal t I N d A l L
Speaker 1: A great follow by the way, for everybody. I made
Speaker 1: five bets m my plan on betting head heads and
Speaker 1: tap five stap ten s tap to one. He is
Speaker 1: that kind of thing. But into of the futures, Marting,
Speaker 1: I did make five better and I made them some
Speaker 1: time ago, and one of them is a Decki Marty Yah. Yeah,
Speaker 1: who did you end up in in the in the end,
Speaker 1: I'm sure you paid attention to this, but who did
Speaker 1: you end up bagging in when all is said and done. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So I have gone with the trend. So I batted
Speaker 1: Deckie as well, because you know, if if he won,
Speaker 1: and I don't know what work. And then I hadn't
Speaker 1: put any money on, would be um, you know, banging
Speaker 1: myself in the head for a few days. But I've
Speaker 1: got John Ram, John Ram. Yeah, he very clear. He
Speaker 1: takes all a lot of those boxes as well. Um,
Speaker 1: I think it's just because he's under twenty two one
Speaker 1: that would be his only kind of cross in that box.
Speaker 1: And I do like Bubba. I think Bubba's yeah, it's
Speaker 1: got some um, some great sass. And and and I think
Speaker 1: Joe's book was helped me get with Bubba. Have to say,
Speaker 1: because in Joe's book it said he strokes gained off
Speaker 1: the tea and last year's Masters, Bubba was a mild Yeah,
Speaker 1: strokes both inaccuracy end distance, right, like he was great
Speaker 1: in both. But you know that's crazy. Joe's take on
Speaker 1: that is he won't be able to duplicate that. That's
Speaker 1: Joe's sort of approach to Bubba. Yeah, but I'm with you,
Speaker 1: like he's he's a guy I didn't bet on, But
Speaker 1: he's the one regret I might have not betting, right,
Speaker 1: that's in the back of my mind. So right, yeah,
Speaker 1: I can see what Joe's saying. But if you look
Speaker 1: on this year's strokes going off the tea rankins Bubb's
Speaker 1: second and that, so it's you know, even though yes,
Speaker 1: it will be hard to do what he did last year,
Speaker 1: the way he's played this year, then he's hitting it
Speaker 1: well enough to you know, possibly get close to that.
Speaker 1: So if you're playing that far down the fairway and
Speaker 1: in the fairway, yeah, I think Bubba's only got to
Speaker 1: play reasonably well in other aspects of his games to
Speaker 1: be right there. Yeah, no, I I get it, believe me,
Speaker 1: I do. I'm I'm sort of your mind as well.
Speaker 1: Um So matsu Yama and Bubba for you one more
Speaker 1: who you might have been on and M and Ram Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm on Rom for sure. I'm on Ram in my five,
Speaker 1: Matso Yama, Ram Kepka for me Justin Rose was one
Speaker 1: of mine, and who was my fifth now it's just
Speaker 1: blanking oh Fee now is my fifth. So hopefully one
Speaker 1: of those gets there. Dave, we're having we're having a
Speaker 1: bit of y am. I also I'm sorry, go ahead, hello, yeah,
Speaker 1: go ahead, yeah. Day on the other one I thought
Speaker 1: was was good value was Batt Coucher. Uh okay, Dave,
Speaker 1: we're having a bit of audio problem, so I'm gonna
Speaker 1: let you go, but I appreciate it. We got the
Speaker 1: crux of all of that, so I thank you. UM,
Speaker 1: and again, Uh, I appreciate you making the time. Will
Speaker 1: you be on Long Shots with Brady tomorrow? You coming
Speaker 1: back on that show? Yes, that's right, Yes, perfect, Okay,
Speaker 1: So Long Shots with Brady Cannon, Matt humans West Reynolds tomorrow,
Speaker 1: five pm Pacific, a p m. Eastern, Dave. Hopefully the
Speaker 1: audio connection will be a little better and Dave will
Speaker 1: be able to talk beyond what he did today on
Speaker 1: the show. Thank you, Dave, appreciated man, and I think
Speaker 1: we might have lost Dave for good there. Thank you
Speaker 1: so much, Dave. I'll i'll hit him back on on
Speaker 1: the old Twitter machine and we'll get to him. UM.
Speaker 1: Sorry about the audio there, but I think we got
Speaker 1: the crux of it. It narrowed down to matsu Yama
Speaker 1: based on all his criteria. UM, and matsu Yama, you
Speaker 1: can still get it about thirty five to one. I
Speaker 1: think I headed in to the masters when you go
Speaker 1: through all those By the way, your dad Jeff guests
Speaker 1: when he heard that we were going to go through
Speaker 1: this exercise, he guessed that it would be which golfer
Speaker 1: or golfers Fleetwood and Fleetwood and Kisner. Not the correct
Speaker 1: answer here from the Dave Tindall exercise. But when I
Speaker 1: was hanging out with Jay Rude, the vice president of
Speaker 1: Racing Sports at MGM Resorts International, yesterday, the two biggest
Speaker 1: liabilities he has in the futures market happened to be
Speaker 1: those two golfers, Kissner and Fleetwood. So he did get
Speaker 1: the answer correct to that question, just not this one.
Speaker 1: Coming back Todd Wishnev from the Showtime Action docuseries Action
Speaker 1: Looking Forward? Did I say the action Showtime? What did
Speaker 1: I say? Right there? The Showtime Docuseries Action If I
Speaker 1: could speak and be a great thing? Todd is the
Speaker 1: the better Here at the South Point stories from Todd.
Speaker 1: He will make you love him. Believe me. It's next
Speaker 1: right here on a numbers game, a vision