1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Joining us 11 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 2: now formerly with City Group, is Abraham Rabari, who has 12 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 2: been greatly greatly missed on Wall Street. Thank you so 13 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 2: much for joining us here. Let me just get right 14 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:05,040 Speaker 2: to your academics, the disinflation in presumed almost true deflation 15 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 2: of China. How will that affect Americans? 16 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:11,360 Speaker 1: Well, I think it's a first of all, it's great 17 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 1: to be back with you after a little break. But 18 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:17,319 Speaker 1: I think you point to a really important change in 19 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 1: the debate. I think a lot of people have emphasized 20 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:23,759 Speaker 1: that the FED has shifted focus from growth from inflation 21 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 1: towards growth, but underneath that there's actually a lot more 22 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 1: I think attention on downside risks to inflation. If you 23 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 1: look across the board, really inflation expectations, which chap Howe 24 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 1: once again emphasized at Jackson Hall, have been soft and 25 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: are now back to clearly pre pandemic levels, maybe a 26 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:47,320 Speaker 1: little bit before commodity prices and oil prices are collapsing, 27 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: and the actual inflation data has been sufficiently soft that 28 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: maybe pre the Great Inflation the. 29 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 2: FED would have thought of it broadly. 30 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 1: At targets CPI at two and a half percent a 31 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 1: year on year. In the past, we thought of that 32 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 1: as roughly around target inflation for the FED. So I 33 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 1: think the significance of your questions of your question comes 34 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 1: from the context China is imparting a disinflation shock to 35 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 1: the world, when actually the risks to inflation are now 36 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 1: broadly speaking, including for the US, to the downside. 37 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 2: Back to your academics at Oxford, where microeconomics molded into 38 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 2: bacro economics as frankly multi decade even centuries gospel, what 39 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 2: are the microeconomic foundations now of supply and demand of 40 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 2: goods services? And I guess just productivity out there? What 41 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 2: are those micro dynamics of our macroeconomics and this disinflation. 42 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:43,359 Speaker 1: Well, the big shift that we'd seen in the US 43 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 1: but globally was that inflation went from being almost entirely 44 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 1: demand driven for a little while and generally soft. I mean, 45 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: supply was helpful, but nevertheless, I think a lot of 46 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:58,720 Speaker 1: emphasis was on demand. The Great Inflation had a big 47 00:02:58,760 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 1: supply elem it. 48 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 2: I know they still a lot of debate. 49 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 1: We saw that debate at Jackson Hall, we saw it 50 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:06,960 Speaker 1: in CenTra, but it's clear that supply took on much 51 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 1: more significance. I think now we're back to a world 52 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 1: where demand is back in the in the foreground, we've 53 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 1: seen demand softly, so it's not to the full exclusion 54 00:03:20,639 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 1: of supply factors, but we see this in all the 55 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 1: company announcements. We see this obviously in continued disinflation and 56 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:30,799 Speaker 1: deflation and goods prices. Certainly demand is taking on much 57 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 1: more of a role. And that's what hands the ball 58 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 1: back to the Fed at the end, because they obviously 59 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 1: work through demand. 60 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 3: Well, then what is our what do you expect our 61 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 3: federal reserve to do? Beginning September eighteenth and then maybe 62 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 3: through the remainder of the year. 63 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 4: Yeah. 64 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 1: So I think that's obviously the big question of the 65 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:47,119 Speaker 1: day for markets, and I think it matters a lot 66 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: more than you know. The question between twenty five and 67 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 1: fifty would indicate, because markets will have to price the 68 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,839 Speaker 1: whole sequence of steps, and it will indicate what sort 69 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 1: of further easing steps in size the FED has in mind. 70 00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 1: In practice, I think it's going to be a twenty 71 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 1: five basis point cut in September, but coupled with a 72 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: projection that they're very much ready to take more decisive 73 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 1: steps in the future. And if anything, it's actually easier 74 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 1: to make the case for a fifty basis point cut 75 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:17,719 Speaker 1: at this meeting. The risks are clearly to the downside. 76 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 1: So the balance of risks points to a more decisive step, 77 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:22,840 Speaker 1: but also simply the fact that at a minimum, the 78 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:25,679 Speaker 1: FED is trying to planning to ease by one hundred, 79 00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty basis ponds. So I might as 80 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:28,479 Speaker 1: well get on the way I do. 81 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 2: That with Jess. Let's talk about two X city groupers. 82 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:35,480 Speaker 2: Catherine Mann would say you're nuts. She would say, Abraham, 83 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:38,279 Speaker 2: shut up, put a cork in your mouth. Nobody's going 84 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:42,159 Speaker 2: fifty beeps? Why is doctor Man and people like doctor 85 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 2: Man suggesting that's too abrupt? 86 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: And in fact, in the end I agree with her. 87 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: I think it's the context that will pull the FED 88 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:51,160 Speaker 1: towards a twenty five basis point cut. But the two 89 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 1: critical factors that get you there is this is a 90 00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 1: really uncomfortable moment for a feed. It's the first it's 91 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 1: the first cut ahead of a contentious and the FED 92 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 1: hasn't really prepared anybody for a potential fifty basis point cut. 93 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 1: So it's the timing is really what I think tips 94 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 1: the tips the balance for me, when you take a 95 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: step back, it's really for a lot of people the 96 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: scarring effect. And it's the difficulty of changing your mind 97 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 1: so quickly. When we've talked for you know, the last 98 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,280 Speaker 1: three years mainly about central banks being behind the curb 99 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 1: and bringing inflation back down, I think that's bygones. I 100 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: think Chapowell historically has been very proactive. So I think 101 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: with that context out of the way, which we will 102 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:31,599 Speaker 1: have as soon as the November meeting for the FOMC, 103 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 1: I think it'll be very easy for them to be 104 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 1: decisive and proactive. This time around, he has to get 105 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 1: the rest of the committee on board. So I think 106 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:41,359 Speaker 1: twenty five basis points this time around, and project we 107 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 1: can do fifty as early as November. 108 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 3: The European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank 109 00:05:45,400 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 3: of Japan, how close they are they monitoring what we're 110 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 3: going to see from the FED on September. 111 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 1: Eighteenth, very closely, and I think it does have relevance 112 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:54,839 Speaker 1: for all of them, and in the end it will 113 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:57,720 Speaker 1: pull all of them in a somewhat more dubbish direction. 114 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,360 Speaker 1: Now we have the ECV tomorrow and is what I 115 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 1: would call fear of forward guidance now, so they are 116 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 1: going to try as hard as they can to say 117 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 1: absolutely nothing about their future decisions. But we have a 118 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: very interesting question for THECB, because unlike the other central banks, 119 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 1: it's really the next, the following policy meeting that markets 120 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 1: are trying to grapple with, and the question is whether 121 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 1: the VCB could quote unquote follow the FED in moving 122 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: away from a quarterly easing cycle to something which is 123 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 1: at every meeting. I think that'll be the case, and 124 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 1: I think the dubvish FED message could prepare the grounds 125 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 1: for it. But I think even for the Bank of 126 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: England and for the Bank of Japan. Obviously in the 127 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:38,359 Speaker 1: case of the Bank of Japan, they're hiking. The dubishness 128 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 1: will make them less keen. 129 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:43,040 Speaker 2: There's a whole belief out there that they're going to 130 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 2: revert to what I'm going to call it green spanning 131 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 2: and measured Your former bank, the Andrew Hollenhorse has been 132 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 2: brilliant about we're going higher and now the basic theme 133 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 2: from City Group is sequential measured rate cuts. I see 134 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 2: Europe to take a different approach with all your global work. 135 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:07,719 Speaker 2: Iver in Mabari is measured dead or do we just 136 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 2: revert back to the green spanning and convenience of our 137 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 2: quarter point? 138 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:16,960 Speaker 1: I think I side with measured is less relevant again, 139 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 1: and the case is pretty simple. Rates are very high 140 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:24,679 Speaker 1: by recent by recent illustration, and all of these central 141 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 1: banks except the Bank of Japan of course, agree that 142 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 1: their rates are very restrictive. So in that environment, if 143 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 1: you have high policy rates and the balance of risks 144 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 1: again points towards much bigger downside risks than upside risks, 145 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 1: it makes a lot more sense to be decisive. And 146 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:41,920 Speaker 1: there's a large body of work too that says if 147 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 1: you're decisive early, it actually may mean that you have 148 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: to do less overall and over time. So I think 149 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: we will go back towards more decisive measures. And again 150 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 1: an interested will lead, BCB will follow, the Bank of England. 151 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 1: You never quite know. It falls somewhere in between, but 152 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 1: I think the broader theme will be we are going 153 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 1: to see pretty steep rate cuts across the world. 154 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 2: Five minutes away, make it four minutes away, Paul from 155 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:07,880 Speaker 2: this inflation report. Ibraham Rbari with US now formerly with 156 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 2: City Group Economics. 157 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 3: So, Ibraham, what do we do in a currency market here? 158 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 3: We've had the US dollar kind of fall four to 159 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 3: five percent from recent highs against major currencies. 160 00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 2: Where do you see. 161 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 3: Value out there in the currency market if most central 162 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 3: banks aren't fat cutting rates? 163 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, so I thought you were. 164 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: I mean, the currency markets are always tricky, but you 165 00:08:26,160 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: ended up with making my life a little easier. There's 166 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 1: an obvious place where there's still value globally, and that's 167 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 1: the end, and I think people have latched onto it. 168 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 1: But we're looking across assets at the world where finding 169 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 1: value is difficult. Finding value in defensive assets is even harder. 170 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:44,199 Speaker 1: And the end stands out in that regard, and if 171 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 1: you are a highly levered hedge fund investor, it's a 172 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 1: little hard to take a long end position when it's fallen. 173 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 1: When Dolly end has fallen in the end has risen 174 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 1: so much, so quickly. But for a medium term investor, 175 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:58,680 Speaker 1: the end is still by far the best place to 176 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: be in currency markets. If you want to sleep really soundly, 177 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:05,040 Speaker 1: being along the end against the RENMNB is probably where 178 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:08,720 Speaker 1: you can sleep forever soundly. But I think the end 179 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:10,560 Speaker 1: would really be where you find value. 180 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 2: I get one minute here before we get to the report, 181 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 2: and if we want you to stay with us to 182 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 2: get your initial reactions to it. We had a one 183 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 2: off jump condition and inflation of the pandemic. What's the 184 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 2: robari timeline out to get to the glide path out 185 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:30,600 Speaker 2: to diminish that refuse it? 186 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 4: Great? Great question. 187 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 1: Once again. I think cyclically we're looking at I think 188 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 1: fast falling inflation will be at target by early next year, 189 00:09:41,000 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 1: but I think there's a there's a time limit on that. 190 00:09:43,920 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: I think structurally we are looking at a high inflation 191 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:48,440 Speaker 1: volatility world, so inflation. 192 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 2: Will be more volatile. 193 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 1: I think over time we'll see a rebound, but for now, 194 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:53,560 Speaker 1: I think inflation is going to fall pretty pretty fast. 195 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 2: If you remember Bari with us, you'll stay with us 196 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 2: constant hunter to give us a perspective and GDP, and 197 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:01,959 Speaker 2: of course it'll GDP. And I looked at the number recently, 198 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:06,280 Speaker 2: but talking to us about a two percent real GDP. 199 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 2: Let's go through the data when I walked in this morning, Paul, 200 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:11,000 Speaker 2: and you know, Paul, I want you to jump on 201 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 2: the CPI data to expect here in two minutes. But 202 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 2: the data that matters is a swingeing yield three point 203 00:10:17,679 --> 00:10:21,080 Speaker 2: five seven is flat out stunning YEP. And the two 204 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 2: year your ten year yield three point six two at percent, 205 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:29,200 Speaker 2: thirty year bond under four percent and the real yield wow, 206 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 2: uh one point five to nine percent in two basis 207 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:36,360 Speaker 2: points this morning. I mean that that's a huge move 208 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 2: off thirty days ago as well, Paul. The CPI numbers, 209 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 2: which one sticks up to you? 210 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 3: You know it's going to be I think, you know, 211 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:44,240 Speaker 3: you look at the CPI X food and Energy, trying 212 00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 3: to just get to the core here what this economy 213 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 3: is doing, and the expectations are for on a month 214 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:51,439 Speaker 3: month basis your point two percent ton, they'll be kind 215 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 3: of right in line with what we've seen recently, certainly 216 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 3: right in line with last month as well here. So 217 00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 3: I mean that's just I think the market's just looking 218 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 3: at the data. Today's a little bit of confirmation that 219 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 3: in fact epulation is moderating, has moderated, and will likely 220 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 3: continue to moderate, which will allow the Fed again to 221 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 3: kind of focus on the growth side of the mandate. 222 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 2: Like the jobs report, I will look at also prior 223 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 2: revised and we'll have to get that that comes out 224 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 2: a little bit later. Here we welcome all of you 225 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:23,080 Speaker 2: across the nation driving to work. Appal Car play, Good morning, 226 00:11:23,160 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 2: Android Auto, bigger and better than ever. Good morning across 227 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:31,199 Speaker 2: all of our radio services on the East Coast, the Corridor, 228 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 2: if you will, ninety nine to one FM in Washington, 229 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 2: Bloomberg eleven three to oh here in the Tri State area, 230 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 2: and of course Bloomberg ninety two nine FM in New 231 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:47,240 Speaker 2: England as well in Boston. We all say a good 232 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:51,839 Speaker 2: morning to you worldwide. We're on YouTube. Subscribe to that. 233 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:53,600 Speaker 2: You're out of the car, get to the office. Like 234 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 2: Constant Hunter, she's got the fifty three inch screen. You 235 00:11:57,080 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 2: know she's living large. You get the YouTube up there, 236 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 2: it's intention to color as well subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts 237 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 2: as well. So we're going to get the CPI report 238 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 2: here from doctor Robari, and then we will speak with 239 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 2: Constance Honor here about inflation coast to coast. Here is 240 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 2: the CPI report coming out promptly as well. Sweeney nailing 241 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 2: it just absolutely on survey. There's no other way to 242 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 2: put it. I would know year over year hourly earnings 243 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 2: with a little bit of a lift there, Paul. And 244 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 2: in the wage inflation, you don't have to get the revisions, 245 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 2: don't have that yet. Equities go south negative twenty two 246 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 2: on equities and yields. I'm gonna say they churn, but 247 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:42,440 Speaker 2: they work a little bit higher, Paul. 248 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:44,319 Speaker 3: What do you see, Yeah, Thomas, you mentioned just kind 249 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,079 Speaker 3: of right in line with expectations CPI. The headline number 250 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:49,199 Speaker 3: month the month is zero point two percent gain, right 251 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:53,960 Speaker 3: in line with expectations. X food and energy zero point 252 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 3: three percent, a little bit higher than the consensus of 253 00:12:56,880 --> 00:13:01,720 Speaker 3: zero point on an annualized basis EPI X food energy 254 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:04,880 Speaker 3: annualized three point two percent, again right in line with 255 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:06,720 Speaker 3: consensus and right in line. 256 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 2: With what we saw last month. 257 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 3: Again, so we'll wait for the revisions time. 258 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, year over year. My headline is a tangible wage 259 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 2: lift which gets into the real wage as well all 260 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 2: our economic indicators, a leadership of Michael McKee. There, I 261 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 2: guess I ermor it's on plan and that's all great 262 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 2: for inflation. We got to wait for the revisions, but 263 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 2: we have a buoyant sy in wages. It's tangible. That's 264 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 2: not disinflation, is it. 265 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: Well, we've actually seen the moderation in pretty much all 266 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:37,560 Speaker 1: measures of wage growth. Unit labor costs have in fact 267 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:40,720 Speaker 1: been very low because productivity growth has been pretty resilient 268 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 1: as well. So I think even when you look at wages, 269 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 1: you can't really find inflationary risk, risks of reigniting inflation. 270 00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 1: It's a little bit about target consistent wage growth, but 271 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 1: nothing to worry about there, and if anything, I think 272 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 1: the Fed will continue to worry about downside risks. 273 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 3: Now and Abraham, just quickly, I'm just reading some of 274 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:00,600 Speaker 3: the top live reporting from Bloomberg. It was the higher 275 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 3: than expected cor inflation rating is going to be a 276 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:07,680 Speaker 3: problem for the fifty basis point FED rate cutscenere for 277 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,559 Speaker 3: next exactly for next Wednesday. So maybe you know a 278 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:13,080 Speaker 3: little bit higher core takes that off the you. 279 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:15,600 Speaker 1: Know, yeah, yes, yes, Actually I think the market worried 280 00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 1: actually about a low reading coming into into this morning, 281 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 1: and I think something broadly lined with expectations is slightly above. 282 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: It doesn't quite seal. I think the case for a 283 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:26,520 Speaker 1: twenty five basis point move first, but I think it 284 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 1: makes it a lot more likely. 285 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 2: The heart of the matter, and this is off a 286 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 2: way I should say from today's report, is the number. 287 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 2: I look at the ECI year over year, the employment 288 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 2: cost Index, which is a blend of wages and benefits. 289 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 2: It's just flat out not back to pre pandemic end 290 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,080 Speaker 2: of discussion. But we don't want it. 291 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 1: To go back to pre pandemic levels, so we economists complained, 292 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 1: and you know, obviously society at large for many years 293 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 1: that wages weren't keeping pace, that living standards weren't keeping pace. 294 00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 1: So I think the point here is not so much 295 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 1: where the wage growth is back to pre pandemic levels. 296 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 1: It's whether inflation is and if base goes is a 297 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 1: little bit higher, that's actually probably a good thing. 298 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 2: Okay, Ibram, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it. Today, 299 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 2: Ibramori with us on this inflation report. We turned a 300 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 2: constant hunter that's grilled at macro policy perspectives and why 301 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 2: equals C plus I plus G plus NX. Let's go 302 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 2: to the debate last night. Fold in here the state 303 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:37,200 Speaker 2: of this inflation report and how it affects consumers. 304 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:44,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, so it's it's it's the it's the shelter index 305 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 5: that's really causing the problem. Right, we're of zero point 306 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:50,000 Speaker 5: five percent month over month. That's close to five percent 307 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:53,600 Speaker 5: year over year, five percent on an annualized basis, And 308 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 5: and this is where the worry is. Of course, there 309 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 5: is a very strong argument that if we lower rates, 310 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 5: that's actually going to help unlock some of the stuckness 311 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 5: in housing. Right, we don't have a lot of transactions. 312 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 5: People are rate locked in their mortgages, so they're not 313 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 5: selling their homes. There's limited supply that's pushing up prices. 314 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 5: That's leading people to interpret the OEER at a higher level. 315 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 5: But I agree with Ibrahim. Look, this is a twenty 316 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 5: five basis point cut environment. It is unlikely they will 317 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 5: move fifty basis points. And the hysteria around an intermeeting 318 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 5: cut that happened in August is. 319 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 2: Luzian Saunder's with the chart of Austin, Texas with a 320 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 2: basic plunge in rents, and I mean in every city's 321 00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 2: every mental region is a different story. But Constance Hunter 322 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 2: the delusion year is FED policy can look at subsets 323 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 2: of inflation. Is there any literature that says they can 324 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 2: be successful doing FED policy looking at this or that 325 00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 2: part of inflation. 326 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 5: Yeah, you bring up a good point, and so yes, 327 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:05,680 Speaker 5: you're correct, they're not going to Historically we wouldn't think 328 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 5: of the FED influencing specific subsets of inflation. However, coming 329 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:14,200 Speaker 5: out of the pandemic, we're in such an unusual situation 330 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:19,560 Speaker 5: that coming out of the pandemic, we're in such an 331 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 5: unusual situation that housing is in this unique place. 332 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:27,720 Speaker 3: So we step back here and we've got inflation moderating. 333 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:31,159 Speaker 3: What's your call in the US consumer these days? I 334 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:34,440 Speaker 3: mean we I guess we hear lots of data ferent 335 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 3: companies in the reported earnings about some folks are really 336 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 3: struggling at there was other folks. I guess maybe you 337 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,880 Speaker 3: own stocksa bonds or real estate are doing Okay. What's 338 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 3: your call in EUOS consumer? 339 00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:49,119 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean we're seeing it that bifurcation that we 340 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 5: that we often have and that we have in the US. 341 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:55,240 Speaker 5: And certainly it's helpful that lower income groups got a 342 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 5: boost in wages through the pandemic, but of course they're 343 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 5: most impacted by price increases. 344 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 2: Constance Hunter with us here, and we'll continue this discussion. 345 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 2: Trouga asking schedule to be with us. Sometimes it takes 346 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:10,640 Speaker 2: tragedy to make a nation come together. This is an 347 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:15,720 Speaker 2: extraordinary image now downtown, Paul, let's step in with this 348 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:19,920 Speaker 2: with Senator Schumer on the left and Vice President Harris 349 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 2: speaking with him, and then President Biden and then mister Bloomberg. 350 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:27,199 Speaker 2: I should mention that Michael Bloomberg is the owner of 351 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 2: all that we do here on Bloomberg Surveillance. Next to 352 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 2: mister Bloomberg, mister Trump as well after this debate, Paul, 353 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 2: an extraordinary scene to see on this September eleventh. 354 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:40,679 Speaker 3: I guess I'm looking at this image here, as you mentioned, 355 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 3: members of all parties there, and it's just a time 356 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:47,119 Speaker 3: of togetherness which you'd like to see, and that is 357 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:51,360 Speaker 3: certainly happening down there in ground zero, Lower Manhattan. 358 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,000 Speaker 2: This twenty third, remember, and so we'll give you coverage 359 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:56,640 Speaker 2: on that here in about ten minutes and on through 360 00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 2: the day. I believe mister Trump traveling to Shanksville, Pence, 361 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,960 Speaker 2: Paul and Alex Steele will have that for you in 362 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 2: the ten o'clock I should mention that the Senator from Ohio, 363 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:11,920 Speaker 2: mister Vance, standing next to mister Trump as well this morning. 364 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 2: An extraordinary scene for those of you out on YouTube 365 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 2: and for those of you on radio, I can just 366 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 2: say it is, Paul, as you mentioned at the top 367 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 2: of the show, a perfect day yep. In New York City, yep. 368 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,399 Speaker 3: Absolutely a perfect day. Today just reminds you of the 369 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:27,600 Speaker 3: day back twenty three years ago in terms of just 370 00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:30,199 Speaker 3: the weather and everything. You walk outside and you just 371 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,960 Speaker 3: know it's that time of year, and it makes you 372 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:33,479 Speaker 3: think about it. 373 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:37,679 Speaker 2: We continue with Constance Hunter Macro Policy Perspectives. Constance My 374 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 2: great theme for the year, and I would say back 375 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 2: eighteen months is corporations adapt and I think we've seen 376 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,160 Speaker 2: that in a bull market. I haven't looked, even with 377 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 2: the market carnage here, I haven't even looked to see 378 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 2: what year over year, a year to date SPX is out. 379 00:19:55,280 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 2: That's terrible, Paul, SPX one year trailing up twenty two percent, concerts, 380 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 2: Hunter corporations adapt. How will the American economy adapt post pandemic. 381 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:10,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, well, so I'm also now with the EIU, the 382 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 5: Economist Intelligence Unit, as they're chief economists, and of course 383 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 5: we cover two hundred countries globally. And what I think 384 00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 5: is so interesting if we look around the world, the 385 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:25,439 Speaker 5: stickiness of services inflation is global, and so what is 386 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,719 Speaker 5: that about? That is about the bounce back from the pandemic, 387 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:35,199 Speaker 5: and so therefore, you know, we think about what is 388 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 5: that that stickiness is because people didn't participate in goods 389 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:43,840 Speaker 5: and service in services activities and now they're bringing that forward, 390 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:48,560 Speaker 5: whether we're talking about travel, eating out, concerts, medical services, 391 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 5: and so we see this everywhere from from Chile to 392 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:55,320 Speaker 5: Europe to the US. It's a global phenomenon and that 393 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 5: is that is the long tail of the pandemic still 394 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 5: working its way through the inflation and statistics. 395 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:02,879 Speaker 2: Canson, thank you so much for joining us a hectic 396 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:06,119 Speaker 2: day to say the least constant hunter with macro policy 397 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 2: joining us here for a quick four minutes five minutes 398 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 2: is Troy Gieski, chief market strategists with FF Investments as well. Troy, 399 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 2: you got to write a memo coming off of September 400 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 2: thirty to reset for Q four, what's your major message? 401 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 6: Well, I think the major message from an economic standpoint 402 00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,639 Speaker 6: is when you look at the US consumer. You were 403 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 6: talking about it before with your prior guest. You know, 404 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,360 Speaker 6: the labor market has moved from white hot to red 405 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 6: hot to warm, and that is good news from an 406 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:41,160 Speaker 6: inflation standpoint, because there is no possible way we could 407 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:44,360 Speaker 6: ever get inflation under control if we still had two 408 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:48,159 Speaker 6: job openings for every unemployed person. So the consumer is 409 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 6: not as strong as they were, the excess savings has 410 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:54,200 Speaker 6: been run down. Obviously, the labor market's no longer white hot, 411 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 6: it's warm, but that, unto itself, does not precipitate a recession. 412 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,640 Speaker 6: Right when you combine and continue to labor market growth 413 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 6: with the consumer's propensity to consume, with us very strong 414 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,520 Speaker 6: business fixed investment CAPEC cycle, driven in large part by 415 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 6: tech and energy needs, it still appears to us that 416 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:17,400 Speaker 6: recession risk is very low and the Fed is going 417 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,679 Speaker 6: to be very very patient lowering the front end. And 418 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,920 Speaker 6: the new terminal eight is right around three percent, which 419 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 6: probably means the yield curve needs to steep it from 420 00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 6: here in the back end, it's priced to perfection. And 421 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:33,159 Speaker 6: then if you flip over to equity markets, there's nothing 422 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,879 Speaker 6: necessarily to fear from a revenue or earning standpoint. The 423 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,960 Speaker 6: issue is valuations. You know, you have growth at either 424 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:43,800 Speaker 6: unreasonable prices or at least very high prices. To your point, 425 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:48,720 Speaker 6: corporations adapt the American corporate entities are incredible at that. 426 00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,320 Speaker 6: It's just you know, you have less upside going forward 427 00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 6: than you've had since October of twenty two based on 428 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:55,640 Speaker 6: valuation alone. 429 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 3: So, Troy, what does that mean? Just as we think 430 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,400 Speaker 3: about equity markets here, I mean a lot of folks 431 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 3: were wondering about is the AI trade played out? Do 432 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,440 Speaker 3: I need to think about other sectors to maybe lead 433 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 3: this market higher? How do you think about that in 434 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 3: the equity space. 435 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:15,680 Speaker 6: Yeah, so there's been an incredible amount of thought put 436 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 6: into various factor trading, right, whether it's quant shops or 437 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 6: fundamentally based shops. And you know, the cautionary note there is, 438 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 6: as you know, why do you own equities? 439 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 4: Right? 440 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,439 Speaker 6: You own equities for growth? Where are you getting growth? 441 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 6: Obviously in tech predominantly, but also in the select handful 442 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:38,000 Speaker 6: of pharmaceutical companies. So trying to play sector rotations and 443 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,480 Speaker 6: catch up trades is very, very challenging, you know. I'll say, 444 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:44,960 Speaker 6: for instance, in our multi strategy fund, it's something we pursue, 445 00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 6: but the probability of success we have there is not 446 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:51,440 Speaker 6: as high as more straightforward expressions like vivid end futures 447 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:55,760 Speaker 6: or yield curve steveners. So we're not big fans of 448 00:23:56,040 --> 00:24:01,080 Speaker 6: people dropping tech to grab value, just because as valuations 449 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,600 Speaker 6: have expanded and these days there's so many other choices 450 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 6: for investors, whether it's in private credit or middle market 451 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 6: private equity or in the hedge fund space, that there's 452 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,159 Speaker 6: no reason to be overly obsessed with this concept of 453 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 6: sector rotation and trying to delude yourself into timing it perfectly. 454 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,760 Speaker 2: Troy too short of visit the news flow today extraordinary. 455 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,680 Speaker 2: Troy Geyeski will do this again longer. Please join us 456 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 2: at in our studio. Mister Gayeski is Chief Market Strategies 457 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:34,720 Speaker 2: FS Investments. By popular claim, we will get to olive 458 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:39,639 Speaker 2: oil with our surveillance. Olive Oil correspondent, I've bluss, but 459 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,160 Speaker 2: ave I want to go to something you just had out. 460 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 2: You've been so busy here with this interesting collapse in 461 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 2: the microeconomics of oil. British petroleum can't get out of 462 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:57,040 Speaker 2: their way. Ten years back with dividends three percent, annual return, 463 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:02,679 Speaker 2: twenty years back with dividends ends two percent and your return, 464 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:07,920 Speaker 2: Javier with your global expertise, how to boards, how to 465 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:13,359 Speaker 2: institutional shareholders let big oil get away with that mediocrity. 466 00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:16,919 Speaker 7: Well, that's one of the reasons that big oil was 467 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,640 Speaker 7: one of the most hated sectors until about three years ago. 468 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,840 Speaker 7: And it was not just because a climate changed. It 469 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:25,600 Speaker 7: was a big factor here in Europe. But the biggest 470 00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:30,199 Speaker 7: reason that most investors really didn't like big oil was 471 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:31,840 Speaker 7: that it has a squandered. 472 00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,840 Speaker 4: A lot of the riches. It just over spend on 473 00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:35,679 Speaker 4: the good years. 474 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 7: Between two thousand and two thousand and eight, return fell. 475 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 7: And the fact of the matter was that at one 476 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,920 Speaker 7: point in two thousand and eight, Big Oil, with oil 477 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:48,280 Speaker 7: at one hundred dollars worth, making less money on the 478 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:50,240 Speaker 7: investment that it was making when. 479 00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 4: Oil was at fifty dollars. 480 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 7: That had changed in the last few years, but with 481 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:58,440 Speaker 7: a massive, massive focus on return on invested capital from 482 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 7: Big Oil. But that was the big reason on that 483 00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,320 Speaker 7: investors really hated the sector and many left. 484 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,440 Speaker 4: The sector it just because the returns were not there. 485 00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,399 Speaker 3: So have in a recent column you point out the 486 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 3: risk to Big Oil here with falling prices, and again 487 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,720 Speaker 3: we've got brent just around seventy dollars a barrel. It 488 00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 3: was below seventy yesterday. Because that really calls into question 489 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:26,800 Speaker 3: their ability to return cash to shareholders to keep shareholders happy. 490 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,480 Speaker 3: What is the risk there for Big Oil and their 491 00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:30,000 Speaker 3: cash flow. 492 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:34,040 Speaker 7: Well, the main problem is that when prices were at 493 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,840 Speaker 7: eighty five ninety dollars a barrel, everyone could make money 494 00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,200 Speaker 7: that where as seventy it's going to be more difficult 495 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:40,360 Speaker 7: to the weakest players to. 496 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 4: Make the money. 497 00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,800 Speaker 7: Big Oil has been returning a lot of money to shareholders, 498 00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 7: not just via dividends, but particularly through buybacks. In some cases, 499 00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,440 Speaker 7: some companies were returning more money be a buyback that 500 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:53,920 Speaker 7: they were doing by dividends. I think that those buy 501 00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 7: backs are in dungeon, at least the size. I don't 502 00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,360 Speaker 7: think that they will have stop completely, but some companies 503 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:00,960 Speaker 7: are going to have to use the size of those 504 00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:04,560 Speaker 7: buybacks because prices are coming down. The strongest players, the 505 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,440 Speaker 7: ones that probably are going to be able to water 506 00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 7: the storm, are going to be the American oil companies 507 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,879 Speaker 7: in Big Oil, Exton and and Devron. I think the 508 00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,719 Speaker 7: Cell and Total energies, the British and unFrench companies are 509 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,880 Speaker 7: in the middle ground, and BP clearly the weakest partner 510 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 7: of those of those five. 511 00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 2: Javier Blass bloombergers with us in London, Javier the World 512 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,679 Speaker 2: for sale and a claim book. Huge response of the 513 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,879 Speaker 2: Penguin Press. Javier Blass Jack Archie with that your world. 514 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:36,959 Speaker 2: Javier is meeting in Singapore right now. How scared is 515 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:41,000 Speaker 2: the oil world? And what I believe is the APEX Summit. 516 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:46,960 Speaker 7: Yes ACA Pacific Petroleum Energy Conference every year in Singapore 517 00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:49,600 Speaker 7: forty years this year there is the best place to 518 00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 7: take a pull. 519 00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:52,919 Speaker 4: Of what the oil industry is feeling. 520 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,880 Speaker 7: I have been talking to people participating and the sentiment 521 00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,919 Speaker 7: is buried. A lot of people will say it's all 522 00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 7: about China. I think that there are two things at 523 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,880 Speaker 7: play here. One is true that the global economy has 524 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,520 Speaker 7: we can and it appears to be weaker as we 525 00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:11,679 Speaker 7: go into twenty twenty five, particularly in China. But I 526 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,000 Speaker 7: think that the other big problem is that OPEC kept 527 00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:18,359 Speaker 7: prices too high for too long, incentivized production from every 528 00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:22,320 Speaker 7: of his rivals Texas, New Mexico, but also Canada, Guiana, 529 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:26,640 Speaker 7: Brazil and other places. And when oil Deman was booming, 530 00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:29,760 Speaker 7: the growth of oil Deman was very strong that extra 531 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:33,800 Speaker 7: oil can be abstorbed with relatively easy. Now the things 532 00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:36,240 Speaker 7: are slowing down a bed and they are not really 533 00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:39,120 Speaker 7: I mean, I hear some people talking about oil demand 534 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 7: is tachnating. 535 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:41,600 Speaker 4: We are going to still grow year and. 536 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:43,560 Speaker 7: Yet about a million borrows a day of oil demand. 537 00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 7: The problem is that the supply is increasing too much 538 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,640 Speaker 7: and everyone is looking at the plant for Opek to 539 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,600 Speaker 7: bring extra barrels in twenty twenty five barrels that the 540 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,400 Speaker 7: market is now clearly tell in the cartel that they 541 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 7: are not needed if they want to keep the prices 542 00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 7: at the current level. There is a big problem is 543 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 7: that Exact is really confused in the market, is not 544 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 7: really showing his cars for twenty twenty five and financial 545 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:10,520 Speaker 7: investors are responding to that uncertainty with a massive selloff 546 00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,480 Speaker 7: in the financial market for oil. About one hundred million 547 00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,600 Speaker 7: barrels over the last few weeks have been liquidated and 548 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,280 Speaker 7: that's what it has caused the price to drop Juice 549 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:23,480 Speaker 7: undred seventy dollars a barrel brand yesterday on the price 550 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 7: now is recovery and we are trading Juese hundred seventy one. 551 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,080 Speaker 3: What do you expect the American producers to do in 552 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:31,400 Speaker 3: America now? For the you know, the first summer several 553 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,160 Speaker 3: years ago is a net exporter of oil. What do 554 00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:36,080 Speaker 3: you expect American companies to do? 555 00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:40,200 Speaker 7: I think that they can carry producing more oil. The 556 00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 7: usail industry in Texas and New Mexico has consolidated a 557 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 7: lot that has consolidated towards bigger players with a big 558 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,480 Speaker 7: role for big oil, including by Excellent. I think that 559 00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:54,440 Speaker 7: those companies are going to carry on. I mean, certainly, 560 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,360 Speaker 7: I'm not expecting everyone to be invested in the same way. 561 00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,080 Speaker 7: At eighty five and now the WTI. 562 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:02,520 Speaker 4: Is to it is close to sixty five dollars a barrel. 563 00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:05,400 Speaker 7: But good news for one of the American producers is 564 00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 7: that they have been battling with problems to get in 565 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 7: read of the natural gas that comes along the oil 566 00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,440 Speaker 7: in techras that natural gas prices have dropping Texas to. 567 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 4: Be low zero. 568 00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,360 Speaker 7: A new pipeline is coming on a stream on the 569 00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,560 Speaker 7: next few days, a couple of weeks, and that's going 570 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 7: to really allow some producers to increase output in the 571 00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,280 Speaker 7: last final year, final months of the. 572 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,600 Speaker 2: Year, and nobody cares. All we care about is Javier 573 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 2: Blass and olive oil. You got me reading olive oil times. 574 00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 2: We're Spain because the elevated prices, they remove the value 575 00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 2: added tags TU Niches doing some price cap or whatever 576 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:49,440 Speaker 2: to our listeners across the nation and worldwide, including Saudi Arabia, 577 00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,560 Speaker 2: Javier Blast, do we need to get used to these 578 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 2: terrible high prices for olive oil. 579 00:30:56,400 --> 00:31:00,480 Speaker 7: I have good news, as Brendon WTI had dropped in 580 00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,560 Speaker 7: the price of olive oil is starting to drop, not 581 00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:07,320 Speaker 7: a lot. The wholesale market remained tight at the harvest 582 00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,080 Speaker 7: in Spain, world largest producer of olive oil is not 583 00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:12,800 Speaker 7: coming until November December, but the harvest. 584 00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,560 Speaker 4: Look a lot better, a lot lot better than the 585 00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 4: previous year. 586 00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 7: I just came back from my home country and things 587 00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:19,960 Speaker 7: are looking good. 588 00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:25,720 Speaker 4: So we have a couple of months of tiny October 589 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:27,440 Speaker 4: September October are going to be high. 590 00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 7: Prices high, but coming into December and Centaly into twenty 591 00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:34,600 Speaker 7: twenty five, new crop of rye big recovery in Louction 592 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:38,320 Speaker 7: in Spain prices to drop. Tom I bought a portal 593 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:42,160 Speaker 7: of Estra Bergin olive oil in Spain for six and 594 00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:45,840 Speaker 7: a half euro, so that is good news that we 595 00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:47,280 Speaker 7: were paying double that price. 596 00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,880 Speaker 2: A mean I got thirty seconds. Saudi Arabia just won 597 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:55,520 Speaker 2: the Dubai olive oil competition. Can Saudi Arabia lead the 598 00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:57,680 Speaker 2: Middle East to olive oil excellence? 599 00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:01,720 Speaker 7: God, you know you are making with Italy, You're making 600 00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:04,520 Speaker 7: trouble with greet and now you want me to make 601 00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:07,960 Speaker 7: trouble in Saudi Arabia. Ali Arabi is a great oil country. 602 00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,920 Speaker 7: When it comes to mineral oil or olive oil. 603 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:12,960 Speaker 4: You are better with the splain. 604 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:27,120 Speaker 2: Okay, thank you so much. I honored to have with 605 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:31,600 Speaker 2: us now from Brown University, all of our expertise, truly 606 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:35,960 Speaker 2: her wheelhouse, the state of our civility, the state of 607 00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:39,720 Speaker 2: our debate. Professor Wendy Schiller joins us this morning. Why 608 00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:43,480 Speaker 2: I got fourteen questions, Paul's twelve. We don't have the time. 609 00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:48,600 Speaker 2: It's seventy eighty miles from Milwaukee due west to Madison, 610 00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:53,760 Speaker 2: Wisconsin along that road. Who were those two candidates talking 611 00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:55,080 Speaker 2: to last night? 612 00:32:56,200 --> 00:33:00,520 Speaker 8: Well, Kama Harris was talking to women, particularly on the 613 00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 8: issue of abortion, but also more generally on the sort 614 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:07,320 Speaker 8: of chaotic nature of what a Trump presidency, a second 615 00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:08,560 Speaker 8: Trump presidency would be. 616 00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:10,160 Speaker 9: That was her pitch. 617 00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:13,400 Speaker 8: They are really still in the House campaign trying to 618 00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:17,640 Speaker 8: solidify and short up enthusiasm among the Democratic base. There 619 00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:20,760 Speaker 8: is a gender gap between the parties, and in particular 620 00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,840 Speaker 8: even on a decided voters on abortion. So, you know, 621 00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:26,200 Speaker 8: spending a lot of time and getting Donald Trump to 622 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,560 Speaker 8: take credit, you know, wholeheartedly for a long time on 623 00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,280 Speaker 8: the reversal of Robie Wade was one of their goals, 624 00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:33,840 Speaker 8: and they accomplished that goal last night. 625 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:36,840 Speaker 2: Tell me about the effect that she touched on. I'm 626 00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:41,400 Speaker 2: surprised she didn't do it more of admirals in generals 627 00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 2: coming out making political statements. I mean, these guys aren't 628 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:49,160 Speaker 2: Taylor Swift, but admirals and generals do they carry some 629 00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:50,480 Speaker 2: weight in what they say. 630 00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 9: Well, you know, it's interesting. I think you're right. 631 00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,080 Speaker 8: She probably could have done more with the idea that 632 00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,320 Speaker 8: he would be commander in chief and that you know, 633 00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:00,720 Speaker 8: commander in chief is of the armed force, and that 634 00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:02,760 Speaker 8: there are many people in the armed forces that don't 635 00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:04,000 Speaker 8: think you should be commander in chief. 636 00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:05,120 Speaker 9: She tried to make that point. 637 00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:06,600 Speaker 8: It was a little bit late in the debate, but 638 00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:09,160 Speaker 8: you know, it's a fine line when you haven't served. 639 00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:13,400 Speaker 8: You know, Tim Wall served and for more than twenty years, 640 00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:16,440 Speaker 8: her vice presidential candidate. Maybe he could make that point, 641 00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:19,120 Speaker 8: but I think it's a little tough to haven't served. 642 00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:22,919 Speaker 3: Yeah, Wendy, I mean, where do we go from here? 643 00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:26,399 Speaker 3: I mean it was by all accounts, a pretty good 644 00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,840 Speaker 3: night for Vice President Harrison. Where did the two candidates 645 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:34,799 Speaker 3: go from here? For those undecided voters, well, it. 646 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:37,360 Speaker 8: Is always, in the end of the day, a ground game, 647 00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,800 Speaker 8: and even more so in twenty twenty four than twenty 648 00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,439 Speaker 8: twenty when we had a lot of mail in voting. Now, 649 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:44,480 Speaker 8: you know, people may choose to want to vote in 650 00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:46,759 Speaker 8: person and they may not be using the mail in valve, 651 00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:48,360 Speaker 8: you know in some of these swing states. 652 00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,640 Speaker 9: So ground game and organization is key. 653 00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:53,799 Speaker 8: You can still register to vote in a lot of 654 00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,279 Speaker 8: places that deadline has not expired. That is going to 655 00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,920 Speaker 8: be more important, I think to the Democrats than the Republicans, 656 00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:03,080 Speaker 8: because they have that sort of Trump wave of enthusiasm 657 00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:05,080 Speaker 8: that's driving people who voted. 658 00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:06,640 Speaker 9: In twenty twenty to make sure to vote in twenty 659 00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:07,320 Speaker 9: twenty four. 660 00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:11,480 Speaker 3: Down ballot, How should we as voters think about all 661 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,480 Speaker 3: of the various congressional races across the country. Where are 662 00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:17,120 Speaker 3: the parties positioning themselves. 663 00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:20,360 Speaker 9: When Joe Biden Paul is a great question. When Joe 664 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:24,280 Speaker 9: Biden stepped down, it sort of separated the presidential campaign 665 00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:28,880 Speaker 9: from ongoing congressional campaigns. It freed up Democrats in particular, 666 00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:32,600 Speaker 9: to run more individual races, more state tailored races. And 667 00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:33,759 Speaker 9: so they're still. 668 00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:35,600 Speaker 8: Trying to do that because really it's a toss up 669 00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:36,640 Speaker 8: at the presidential level. 670 00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,320 Speaker 9: They can't really afford to go all in on Kamala Harris. 671 00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:42,000 Speaker 8: They have to really go local. And that's why it's 672 00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 8: a little bit unpredictable. What's going to happen in the House. 673 00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:46,959 Speaker 8: You know, have ten seats fifteen seats that are really 674 00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:51,080 Speaker 8: in contestation, but they are in New York and California, 675 00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,800 Speaker 8: and so that gives Democrats a potential edge in claiming 676 00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:56,759 Speaker 8: back some of the seats they lost in twenty twenty two. 677 00:35:57,120 --> 00:36:00,520 Speaker 8: And the Senate is really unpredictable at this point in time. 678 00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,440 Speaker 8: You've got Trump up in Nevada, Trump up in Arizona, 679 00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:07,600 Speaker 8: but the Senate candidates are polling ahead of the Republican challenger, 680 00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:09,760 Speaker 8: so it's really a toss up there too. 681 00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,440 Speaker 2: Professor Shulman, the time we've got left, I got got 682 00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:14,040 Speaker 2: two themes here. I want to get them both in 683 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:17,560 Speaker 2: and are important. I was shocked at the number of 684 00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:21,240 Speaker 2: debates in the fifties, even within the Democratic Party debates 685 00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:25,640 Speaker 2: just single party debates. But also in nineteen sixty is 686 00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:29,000 Speaker 2: there any value to either candidate to do a second debate? 687 00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:33,560 Speaker 8: You know, Tom, You know, if you're the Harris campaign, 688 00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:35,759 Speaker 8: you want to, like, you know, take the victory lap and. 689 00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:36,880 Speaker 9: Don't do this again. 690 00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,120 Speaker 8: You know, just like Trump did so well against Biden. 691 00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:42,400 Speaker 8: You know, you have a great debate. Trump had to 692 00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,280 Speaker 8: debate Harris, right, but you have a great debate. 693 00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:47,919 Speaker 9: You cannot even do better than you did last night. 694 00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:49,120 Speaker 9: Don't do it again. 695 00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:52,919 Speaker 8: Trump may want a debate again, obviously, but I think 696 00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,840 Speaker 8: the margin utility Trump is probably really little. You know, 697 00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,279 Speaker 8: people know Donald Trump. It's whether they want to see 698 00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:00,759 Speaker 8: him back in the office of the President's again or not. 699 00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,239 Speaker 9: I don't think another debate with Harris is going to 700 00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:03,719 Speaker 9: is a move. 701 00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,279 Speaker 2: The el on that Wendy the heritage of Bloomberg and 702 00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:08,640 Speaker 2: what we do at Bloomberg Surveillance is good morning, Matt 703 00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,759 Speaker 2: Winkler and John Mickeltswaite is Paul Sween And I really 704 00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:14,600 Speaker 2: try to keep the politics out of it. But the 705 00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:17,240 Speaker 2: thing Wendy in there that just I'm like, you gotta 706 00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:20,880 Speaker 2: be kidding me. You go back to Smoot Hawley nineteen 707 00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:25,399 Speaker 2: thirty no boy or Fortney McCumber tariff, which my grandfather 708 00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,799 Speaker 2: used to talk about. I mean, Wendy, come on, there 709 00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:35,160 Speaker 2: is no literature that exists that says that China or 710 00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:39,440 Speaker 2: Germany or Romania are going to pay a tariff. Am 711 00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:41,200 Speaker 2: I right, you. 712 00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:43,760 Speaker 8: Are correct, And it's really important to bring back Smoot 713 00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,040 Speaker 8: Hawley as an example of what not to do to 714 00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,120 Speaker 8: exacerbate any kind of economic condition, because what really sent 715 00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:53,600 Speaker 8: us into a depression was that bill, and that you know, 716 00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:56,120 Speaker 8: it is always much more expensive for the American consumer 717 00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:59,759 Speaker 8: for tarris you know, eighteen nineties, nineteen thirties, you know, 718 00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:02,600 Speaker 8: and it cost us billions of dollars when Trump had 719 00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:05,359 Speaker 8: these tariffs in place, in subsidies to farmers to pay 720 00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:08,240 Speaker 8: them for lost product sales in China. 721 00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,560 Speaker 9: So you know, it is a dangerous tool I believe 722 00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:12,560 Speaker 9: to use. 723 00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:15,840 Speaker 8: Sort of as a political or diplomatic weapon against a 724 00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,960 Speaker 8: country because it backfires on the United States. And Tom 725 00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:20,920 Speaker 8: Iris was okay on that, but you know, there was 726 00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:22,839 Speaker 8: a little bit not much wiggle room since Biden has 727 00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:25,040 Speaker 8: kept these tariffs in place for the most part exactly. 728 00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:29,239 Speaker 3: So if you were advising Vice President Harris Wendy, what 729 00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,759 Speaker 3: would you tell her about the key message between now 730 00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:33,239 Speaker 3: and election day for her? 731 00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:36,640 Speaker 8: You know, she had a good combination last night of 732 00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:39,880 Speaker 8: particular issues that are on the ballot. For example in Arizona, 733 00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:43,360 Speaker 8: abortion and resonate. She threw in the fact that she 734 00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:45,719 Speaker 8: was a gun owner. I think that's an important thing 735 00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:50,360 Speaker 8: in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and Michigan and Georgia 736 00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,160 Speaker 8: and North Carolina, all these states. You know, making sure 737 00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:56,239 Speaker 8: that people don't believe that she is as left as 738 00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:59,480 Speaker 8: Donald Trump wants to portray her to be. That is 739 00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:04,640 Speaker 8: her messing challenge. And then just retail organizational politics. There 740 00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:08,719 Speaker 8: are more richter Democrats than Republicans in the country and 741 00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,880 Speaker 8: whether they can really turn out the vote, and that 742 00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:13,760 Speaker 8: is the challenge from now it's on November. 743 00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:16,879 Speaker 2: Yeah, you think about Brown University, I mean, Gordon Wood, 744 00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:20,880 Speaker 2: Wendy Schiller. I mean, yeah, it's like serious for all 745 00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:24,360 Speaker 2: of you, whatever your political affiliation. The professor from Providence, 746 00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,480 Speaker 2: Wendy Shilder, thank you so much. This is a Bloomberg 747 00:39:27,560 --> 00:39:31,960 Speaker 2: Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, 748 00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:35,760 Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 749 00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:40,319 Speaker 2: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 750 00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:43,840 Speaker 2: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 751 00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:47,880 Speaker 2: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 752 00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:51,680 Speaker 2: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 753 00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,640 Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 754 00:39:55,680 --> 00:40:03,480 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.