1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: Ye. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: jay Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Joining 5 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:34,200 Speaker 1: us here in New York City is Kate more blank 6 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:37,919 Speaker 1: Rock Investment Institute Chief Equity Strategistics. She joins us Now, 7 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:41,160 Speaker 1: Good morning, Kate, Good morning. Some optimism this morning in China. 8 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: Do you have it longer term? I definitely have a 9 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 1: longer term, and I think that some of what we've 10 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 1: seen in terms of the price action so far has 11 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 1: been really really overdone this year. You know, I don't 12 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 1: understand why investors are surprised that the government has come 13 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 1: out and said that they are going to support strategic 14 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: industries technology private firms going to provide both explicit and 15 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:06,759 Speaker 1: implicit support on financing as well as on the regulatory side. 16 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 1: This has always been the case, and people who have 17 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:13,479 Speaker 1: been reluctant to invest in China are those that don't 18 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: understand the strength of Chinese political will and how important 19 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: the growth and the breadth of the economy is for 20 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:24,679 Speaker 1: the future plans. So we saw the plunge protection team 21 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 1: get into action. What if they learned from and why 22 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 1: is this response any different? So I think what's happened 23 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 1: in two thousand eighteen is a little bit different in 24 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:38,119 Speaker 1: that um the government has put a series of policies 25 00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:41,759 Speaker 1: and new regulations in place that, you know, while hurting 26 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 1: earnings maybe a little bit in the near term, especially 27 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 1: around some of the key sectors in China, actually really 28 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:51,280 Speaker 1: lay the groundwork for more sustained and better growth in 29 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: the future. This isn't just about supporting stocks right now. 30 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 1: This is about creating the right framework and the long 31 00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 1: term support from you know, the policy side that will 32 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 1: allow the kind of growth and development that they need 33 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 1: to achieve their big technology goals. Well, then all the 34 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 1: you know, the optimism we have and shall we heard 35 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 1: Kate Moore's optimism here over the last number of hours. 36 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 1: But within this optimism is a gloom crew. Doug Cass 37 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 1: will join us later on. Doug Cass is a little 38 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 1: bit cautious on the market. What do the cautious people 39 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,959 Speaker 1: get wrong? Is it financial? Is it mood? Is it 40 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 1: the size of the bet one way or another? What 41 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 1: is it? Yeah? Tom. Let me just say, I don't 42 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:34,880 Speaker 1: think I'm gonna live this down when I get into 43 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 1: the office today. Kate, You're too optimistic is going to 44 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: be branded right across my face. But here's what I 45 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: will say. The people who are very pessimistic are concerned that, 46 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 1: you know, all of these policy things will weigh indefinitely 47 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,800 Speaker 1: on the potential for earnings and growth. People who are optimistic, 48 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: you tend to have a slightly longer time horizon. Exactly 49 00:02:56,240 --> 00:03:00,120 Speaker 1: is Doug cass would say that, did Kate? More is 50 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: X access is way different than the kind of access 51 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 1: Doug Kiss, don't anow us the characterize what you're saying. 52 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 1: If it's not optimism, what would you call it? How 53 00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 1: would you frame the way you're thinking about the world 54 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 1: right now? I'd say I have the ability to look 55 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 1: through some of the near term noise volatility UH and 56 00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 1: some challenges and some headwinds to Chinese sectors into Chinese 57 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,919 Speaker 1: growth expectations is very likely in the near term, and 58 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:25,680 Speaker 1: I'm gonna, if I'm gonna be totally honest with you, 59 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 1: I can't necessarily identify catalysts that's gonna lead China to 60 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 1: rip and outperform the rest of the market in the 61 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: fourth quarter. But I think you know, as especially longer 62 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 1: term investors and individual investors think about their allocation to 63 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 1: this incredibly important economy, to these really interesting markets where 64 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 1: companies don't look exactly like their US counterparts, they need 65 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: to think about adding over the medium term. And you 66 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: know this is what you hear me say, which is 67 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: to try and reverse the negative. I think that the 68 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: order take away the cloud that's been hanging over a 69 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 1: lot of people's recent experience in emerging markets and say 70 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 1: there are some very very strong growth stories. A big 71 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 1: week for tech earnings in the United States this week. 72 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: The divergence, though, in between Chinese tech and US tech 73 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: has been absolutely massive. Are you saying that you would 74 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 1: buy the Chinese side of the story and look for 75 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: some convergence here. It's really convenient to say that US company, 76 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:25,840 Speaker 1: US tech and Chinese tech are kind of similar sides 77 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:28,839 Speaker 1: of the same idea, But the composition of these companies, 78 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 1: their demand, their content, the regulatory environment are all totally different. 79 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: And you've seen what is almost four four thousand basis 80 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 1: points spread between the performance of US tech companies and 81 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 1: Chinese tech. But apples to apples or it's not these 82 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:48,679 Speaker 1: are you know. My point is if you're thinking about 83 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:51,919 Speaker 1: technology over the long term, you've got to own both sides. 84 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:55,559 Speaker 1: These companies do different things, access different consumer bases and 85 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:59,240 Speaker 1: and are developing technologies at different pieces. It's not you know, 86 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:02,359 Speaker 1: you don't have a an Apple in China or you 87 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 1: know an Amazon in China that I feel pretty calfinated accident. 88 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 1: She's stand up on the upper west side of the week. 89 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: Kay as much sharper than us about that big week 90 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:19,280 Speaker 1: coming up for tech and eggs. What are you looking for? 91 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: Netflix just does everything the bulls wanted to do, and 92 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 1: then the stock ends the week down two. Well, we're 93 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:28,719 Speaker 1: in this market where if you are putting up numbers 94 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 1: that look too good that everyone's going to step back. 95 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 1: Is it possible that we continue to get the same 96 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: kind of subscription growth? Who knows? Um, there's we really 97 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 1: are looking for goldilocks numbers, things strong but not so 98 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: strong that they don't look unsustainable. And you know, it's 99 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,239 Speaker 1: possible that good numbers this year pardon me, this quarter 100 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: on the top line and the bottom line aren't met 101 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 1: with huge out performance. So um, but I would say 102 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 1: that's an opportunity especially our growth managers are looking to 103 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 1: add shares. At this point, does it matter what corporations 104 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: are doing with their cash, because to me, it's my 105 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: my official line interview after interview is nothing's changed, and 106 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 1: they're doing a little bit of capex and everybody stands 107 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: up and cheers, but it's a yeah, but kind of capex, 108 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: that's no big deal. Well, the only CAPEX we're really 109 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 1: seeing grow in a meaningful way into thousand eighteen is 110 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: in tech. Actually, every other sector is kind of doing 111 00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 1: what it's done for most of the post crisis period. 112 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 1: It's like low single digit growth, just what they need 113 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: to do. It's really interesting to me, though, that when 114 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:26,479 Speaker 1: growth starts to want to perform, we get a lot 115 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 1: of people come on this program and say it's time 116 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 1: to shift to value, that rotation is here, get out 117 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: of growth, go to value. And then you just said 118 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 1: your growth managers are looking to add to exposure. So 119 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 1: clearly for black Rock that's the theme. You think growth 120 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 1: is where it's at, that's where it stays. So last 121 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:42,719 Speaker 1: week we had a great debate. We had our equities 122 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 1: off site and value versus growth was one of our 123 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 1: key discussion points. What do you see Houston, Red Sex. 124 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:51,479 Speaker 1: Is that where your off site was. Well, there are 125 00:06:51,480 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 1: a lot of different teams here. This is what I'm 126 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 1: gonna say when it comes to value. You tend to 127 00:06:56,960 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 1: have value as a style outperform when you are in 128 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 1: an economic or accelerating economic environment, when the second derivative 129 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,840 Speaker 1: growth looks really good. Um, and that has been you know, 130 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:11,480 Speaker 1: the experience that most people have lived through. What I 131 00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: will tell you though, is that like what's falling into 132 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: the value style and disease right now? Some of it's 133 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: just not very good quality and some of it is 134 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: structurally impaired. And I think our value managers would say, 135 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 1: you know, the work they have to do is that 136 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 1: much more difficult than it's ever been in the past. 137 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: We are also, while we're looking for a sustained expansion, 138 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: are not looking for a massive acceleration in the growth 139 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 1: rate at this point. And that I think, you know, 140 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 1: tempers the opportunity for value. John Hudeck where this was Brookings, 141 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 1: we talked policy after the election. Do you just assume John, 142 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: I mean, you're not like a poll wank, but do 143 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: you just assume gridlock Democrat House? Yeah, if the Democrats 144 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 1: take back the House. Sure, gridlock is going to increase dramatically. 145 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 1: You're going to have one party controlling the House, another 146 00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 1: party controlling the Senate that agree on next to nothing. 147 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 1: And unless unless Pelosi and Schumer can somehow extend an 148 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: olive branch to the president, um, it's going to be 149 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 1: a period in which we have another nothing. Congress. Is 150 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 1: grid luck good? Well, gridlock is good if Congress is 151 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 1: proposing a lot of bad ideas. And I think there 152 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 1: are a lot of Americans who see Congress as a 153 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 1: group that's proposing a lot of bad ideas in terms 154 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:33,679 Speaker 1: of policy. But at the same time, there are must 155 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 1: pass pieces of legislation like appropriations bills that gridlock really threatens, 156 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:42,679 Speaker 1: and that increases the likelihood of government shutdowns, lacks of 157 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 1: reauthorization for essential agencies, and in a whole host of 158 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:48,839 Speaker 1: other problems. John, what can the president do without a 159 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:51,960 Speaker 1: Republican Congress if that is indeed what we get after 160 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 1: the midterms, And why do you think the focus will 161 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 1: be well? Presidents face this fairly regularly. Right the past, 162 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,839 Speaker 1: several presidents have baced a period of unified government and 163 00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 1: then a period in which they lost control of at 164 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:07,319 Speaker 1: least one House of Congress, and they handle it in 165 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:11,719 Speaker 1: different ways. An effective president takes a deep breath and says, well, 166 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 1: the political landscape has changed dramatically, and if I want 167 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 1: to be effective at all, I have to become a dealmaker. 168 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: And for President Trump, he sort of prides himself on that, 169 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 1: and I think he has an opportunity to change course 170 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:27,559 Speaker 1: a bit. If, however, he stays course given a different 171 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 1: political environment, it means that he will contribute to that gridlock. 172 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: In Any hope of breaking that gridlock, of course, comes 173 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:36,599 Speaker 1: from the Oval Office, and if the Oval Office is 174 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 1: not willing to put in the time, then gridlock is 175 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 1: the name of the game. Who was the last effective president? John, Well, 176 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:47,079 Speaker 1: you know, I think, uh, It's not often talked about, 177 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:51,000 Speaker 1: but I think President George W. Bush actually worked surprisingly 178 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:55,080 Speaker 1: well with uh Democrats in Congress after the two thousand 179 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:58,880 Speaker 1: six of wave of Democrats taking control. I mean they 180 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 1: didn't you know, they didn't do everything that they wanted 181 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:05,560 Speaker 1: to get done, but they were as antagonist because people 182 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:07,800 Speaker 1: thought they'd be. And John, this goes the heart of 183 00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 1: your academics, which is the idea of a president with 184 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:16,280 Speaker 1: executive experience, And we can clearly state that President Trump 185 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,439 Speaker 1: did not have that not serving in government, and President 186 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 1: Obama was Senator Obama. Do you make a big deal 187 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 1: of someone that enters the office that actually was a governor. 188 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 1: I think that's pretty helpful when you look at a 189 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 1: President Clinton who worked well with a Republican Congress, or 190 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:35,040 Speaker 1: I should say relatively well President Bush who worked well 191 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 1: with the Democratic Congress. Part of that had to do 192 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 1: with their experience previously. But I think with President Trump, 193 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 1: you know, he is an executive. He is a business executive, 194 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: and in his many decades of working not just in 195 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 1: New York, but in other countries I'm sorry, other major 196 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:55,720 Speaker 1: cities around the world, he saw these changes in political environments, 197 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: real estate environments, and economic environments, and to be effective 198 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 1: he need to change when those environments changed. And so 199 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 1: I think he has an opportunity to do that. The 200 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,439 Speaker 1: question is whether he will. The president's tone and I 201 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 1: believe I saw the video and the blur of the weekend, 202 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 1: But Johanna Hudec, can the president get tax legislation through 203 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: by the first Tuesday of November? Absolutely not, thank you. 204 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:24,559 Speaker 1: Not going to get anything through between now in this 205 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:28,400 Speaker 1: next election day or frankly now in November of twenty nineteen. 206 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:30,959 Speaker 1: So let's tell foreign policy, John, because that's where the 207 00:11:31,000 --> 00:11:34,839 Speaker 1: focus is right now, Saudi Arabia. Would it be fant 208 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:36,839 Speaker 1: to say this is the biggest foreign policy crisis so 209 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 1: far of the Trump administration. Absolutely. I think some are 210 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: looking at this, or I should say very few are 211 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: looking at this as an issue of a journalist being 212 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:50,720 Speaker 1: tortured and dismembered. But this is of course much larger. 213 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 1: It has to do with American values and leadership around 214 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:58,199 Speaker 1: the world, respect for media, and of course economic and 215 00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 1: defense relationships. And audio Arabia is an important, important economic 216 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:06,679 Speaker 1: partner and an important partner in America's defense. But we 217 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: have a lot of partners who do things from time 218 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 1: to time that appalls the US and there has to 219 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:15,320 Speaker 1: be a response to that. And the president right now 220 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 1: is facing acrossroads, and he can make a very bad choice, 221 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 1: and he can make a series of better choices, and 222 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:24,960 Speaker 1: the ball is really in his core. So walk me through, John, 223 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 1: what you think are a series of better choices? You know, 224 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: I think a series of better choices includes a serious 225 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:34,679 Speaker 1: reprimand of Saudi Arabia that would probably come in the 226 00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 1: form of some mild sanctions. Um it would come from 227 00:12:38,720 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 1: a very um uh you know, firm statement from the 228 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 1: President and probably a firm statement from the Congress that 229 00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 1: the United States does not condone this behavior and it 230 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 1: will stand up for media around the world who, frankly, 231 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 1: as you both know, are under attack and a variety 232 00:12:56,800 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: of countries every day. John, one more question, what happens 233 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:04,040 Speaker 1: the first Wednesday of November. I mean, if there's let's 234 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,320 Speaker 1: assume the Democrats take the House, what's the lame duck 235 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:09,959 Speaker 1: character of I mean, John Farrell is looking at me like, 236 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 1: what's lane duck? Explain lame duck to our global audience, 237 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 1: and what flavor of lame duck? Will this be? Sure? 238 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:20,200 Speaker 1: Lame duck exists for a Congress or for a president, 239 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:23,679 Speaker 1: and that happens after an election and before either a 240 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:25,959 Speaker 1: new Congress has sworn in or a new president is 241 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 1: sworn in. What you're going to see in the lamb 242 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 1: Duck is a Senate that is rapidly approving judges as 243 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 1: quickly as they can. I think that's going to be 244 00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 1: true even if uh the uh, you know, Republicans maintain control. 245 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:43,079 Speaker 1: There are some loose ends in terms of appropriations. A 246 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:47,079 Speaker 1: farm bill etcetera that Congress wants to get through, and 247 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 1: I think sanctions on Saudi Arabia is something that this 248 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 1: Congress is going to want to get done before January. John, 249 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:56,200 Speaker 1: Thank you so much January Duck with Brookings to give 250 00:13:56,280 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 1: us a good election, John, why don't you bring in 251 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:10,480 Speaker 1: young Mailey. In the equity markets, Matt Madbie millerit back 252 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 1: and lac Managing director and equity strategist. Good morning to 253 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 1: your Matt. Big week for tech nes this week in America. 254 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:20,840 Speaker 1: What are you looking for? Well, I mean it's it's 255 00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 1: going to be very very important because the tech has 256 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 1: obviously been the key, key leader in the market, in 257 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: the stock market since the election. Remember everybody said that 258 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 1: the you know, President Trump is gonna be negative for 259 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: uh for tech companies, and in the group was getting 260 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 1: hit right after the election. They've rallied strongly since then. 261 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 1: The one concern, of course, is the key leader within 262 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 1: the tech group has been the semi conductors, and they've 263 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 1: been acting very poorly lately. Uh so uh you know, 264 00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:49,000 Speaker 1: they've been much more weaker than the rest of the group. 265 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 1: We keep talking about the Tunter day moving average in 266 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 1: the in the SMP five hundred, which we continue to 267 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 1: cling to the same thing as in the XLK, the 268 00:14:55,720 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 1: UH Tech ETF, but the SOCKS Semiconductor Index or the 269 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,760 Speaker 1: SMH which is the semi e t F, it's broken 270 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 1: well below. It's two winter day moving average seven percent below. 271 00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 1: And it's a very very important support level for that 272 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: one as well. So if we don't get to UH 273 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 1: this group to turn around and for the general UH 274 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: group to see good earnings to help the you know, 275 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 1: the tech group, the key leadership group bounced back, We're 276 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 1: gonna have some more headwines as we moved to the bag, 277 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 1: just to break down tech a little bit more. We 278 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 1: have seen a divergence within the big fang names themselves, 279 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 1: notably the difference between say, Facebook and Netflix through and 280 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 1: it's been quite dramatic. Are there any particular names, any companies, 281 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 1: any business models that you think will do better in 282 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:40,360 Speaker 1: the current environment. Well, I mean, the one thing that 283 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: we have to look at is, you know, this whole 284 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 1: thing with when it's kind of funny because away from 285 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 1: the fundamental side of the situation, I'm more interested in 286 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: how crowded this trade. As you talk about the fang stocks, 287 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 1: you look at a Facebook. You know, in this recent 288 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,560 Speaker 1: most recent downturn, Facebook is actually outperformed. It's it's come 289 00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 1: down a little bit, but it's actually been trading more sideways. 290 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 1: A lot of these stocks are very very crowded because 291 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: they performed very well. Uh. But Facebook, of course it's 292 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 1: been washed out. It's done more. It's no longer crowded people. 293 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 1: It's not not a lot of week money in it. 294 00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:15,040 Speaker 1: So I think some of these underperformers are going to 295 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 1: do better. It's October whatever it is, and we're all 296 00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:20,760 Speaker 1: focused on the first Tuesday of November. Michael Purvis, Weed 297 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 1: and Matt Malie wrote a wonderful note a couple of 298 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: weeks ago. A number of weeks ago, I should say 299 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 1: about how portfolios have to adjust, what percent of portfolios 300 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:37,000 Speaker 1: are behind right now? The answers, it's ginormous, isn't it. Yes, 301 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,160 Speaker 1: you know, it's well, of course every year it's it's 302 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 1: kind of funny how how badly the tend money managers, 303 00:16:44,320 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 1: both on the hedge fund side and on the mutual 304 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 1: fund side, UH tend to underperform the market. The thing 305 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 1: is nowadays, it's it's on a percentage basis. It's a 306 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,200 Speaker 1: big percentage, but a lot of them are very tied, 307 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 1: very closely to these indexes, so they're not well behind 308 00:16:57,640 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 1: the market. However, it's kind of funny because I'm still 309 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 1: think we might need need to get a little bit 310 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 1: of more of a wash out here before the market 311 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 1: really bottoms. But as you get past the election, you know, 312 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:09,160 Speaker 1: we all know that the in mid term election years, 313 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:11,639 Speaker 1: and market tends a rally towards the end of the year. Uh, 314 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 1: then performance sphere become plays a huge, huge, uh component 315 00:17:18,600 --> 00:17:20,440 Speaker 1: to what's going on in the marketplace. Even if you 316 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 1: think we're gonna have a horrible gonna have a horrible 317 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:24,679 Speaker 1: recession in two thousand nineteen, if the markets trailing at 318 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:26,919 Speaker 1: the end of the year, and you're an institutional money manager, 319 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 1: you've got to be in the market. You've got to 320 00:17:28,600 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 1: be buying. So uh. You know, people may be a 321 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:32,720 Speaker 1: little bit of careful, especially on some of these groups 322 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:34,640 Speaker 1: that are very badly beaten up, some of the bank 323 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:36,879 Speaker 1: stocks which have rallied strongly at the end of the 324 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:38,879 Speaker 1: year the last two years. I've been really negative on 325 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:42,200 Speaker 1: the group, but I always be careful. Wait are you 326 00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 1: saying no? Uh, you know, I'll take it back yes, 327 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 1: I think right now. I think as we look at 328 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:51,760 Speaker 1: the two thousand nineteen with interest rates moving higher, things 329 00:17:51,800 --> 00:17:53,879 Speaker 1: have changed. We keep them saying that in the fundamentals 330 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:56,680 Speaker 1: haven't changed. You know, mortgage rates have doubled, I'm sorry, 331 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 1: not double, They've gone up a full percent in the 332 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 1: last year. Uh A. Long term bonds have doubled since 333 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:04,479 Speaker 1: a little of two thousand sixteen. The yield on long 334 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:06,960 Speaker 1: term bonds. Uh. There's, of course, there's a lot of 335 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:10,000 Speaker 1: uncertainly now with earnings. So my thing is raising a 336 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:11,880 Speaker 1: little bit of cash in case we have a tough year, 337 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 1: get a little bit more defensive, because these defensive groups 338 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:17,479 Speaker 1: are out performing, especially Matt MAYLEI thank you so much, 339 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:31,160 Speaker 1: milar type. I greatly appreciate it, without question. My interview 340 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:34,640 Speaker 1: of the day on the issues of Saudi Arabia, Turkey 341 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:37,960 Speaker 1: at the United States. Stephen Cook, Stephen A. Cook is 342 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:41,400 Speaker 1: with the Council on Foreign Relations. I can't say enough 343 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 1: about his book False Dawn, Protest, Democracy and Violence. I'll 344 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 1: look at the Middle East, look at the Arab Spring. 345 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 1: It is one of those books where I'm reading every 346 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:54,119 Speaker 1: word cover to cover. Stephen Cook, good morning. If you 347 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:57,680 Speaker 1: uh wrote false Dawn today, How would you change the 348 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 1: chapter on Turkey? Well, I think the chapter actually holds 349 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:06,880 Speaker 1: up even stronger now. Turkey was one of those countries 350 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:10,479 Speaker 1: in the early two thousand's that I think people widely 351 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 1: believed would be a member of the European Union. By 352 00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:18,200 Speaker 1: and um, it is more authoritarian now than I think 353 00:19:18,280 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 1: it's been in since the Republic of Turkey's founding almost 354 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 1: nine years ago. So the Turkish president ridget type Aerdan 355 00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 1: essentially runs a one man elected autocracy. Within this is 356 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:39,200 Speaker 1: a present from Mr Rohan in his autocracy? Would you 357 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:43,320 Speaker 1: explain his calculus now? I think it's been confusing within 358 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:47,680 Speaker 1: the media, the Ariduan calculus of Saudi Arabia combined with 359 00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 1: the calculus is to the United States and to Iran 360 00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 1: as well. Well. The issue of the day being the 361 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:59,160 Speaker 1: relationship between Turkey and Saudi Arabian. I think it's fairly 362 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 1: clear that everyone has multiple interest in doing everything possible 363 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 1: to embarrass the saudiast Um. First of all, he can 364 00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:17,200 Speaker 1: demonstrate through the leaks to the press that Turkey can 365 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 1: be a responsible citizen as opposed to a reckless Saudi Arabia. 366 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 1: He's scheduled to announce tomorrow. Uh. There the Turkish government's 367 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,639 Speaker 1: belief of what happened to the Saudi journalist Jamal Kashogi, 368 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 1: And I think what he's trying to do is to 369 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:38,360 Speaker 1: demonstrate that for all the criticism that the Turkish Turkish 370 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 1: press has taken for its past fabrications on this issue, 371 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:48,399 Speaker 1: they've been one on the story and have reflected accurately 372 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 1: what's happened. And then it's important to remember that Saudi Arabia, 373 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:58,480 Speaker 1: he is a arrival and actually in conflict with one 374 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:03,200 Speaker 1: of Turkeys st jijik Allas, the government of Cota, and 375 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 1: so anything that Aireduan can do to kind of bring 376 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,959 Speaker 1: the Saudis down and notch will be beneficial to him. 377 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,399 Speaker 1: On the question of Iran, the Turks really have played 378 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 1: a double game. Um. They have been signal publicly that 379 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 1: they want to be on the side of the United States, 380 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:23,200 Speaker 1: while over the course of the preceding decade helped the 381 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:30,159 Speaker 1: Iranians evade UN sanctions. So uh, it's entirely unclear what 382 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 1: they're going to do with the renewing sanctions. Stephen A. Cook, 383 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:36,920 Speaker 1: with his constant formulations, I can't say enough about False Dawn. 384 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 1: I'm reading it cover to cover Stephen A. Cook. This 385 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 1: came up this weekend. Let's let's have the pro answer 386 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:46,120 Speaker 1: the question. If the Saudis are Sunni and the Iranians 387 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:52,639 Speaker 1: are Shia, what is Turkey. Well, Turkey is predominantly a 388 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:56,320 Speaker 1: Sunni country, but the Turks have never really pursued a 389 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:59,040 Speaker 1: sectarian farm policy in the same way that the Saudis have, 390 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 1: for example, the way the Iranians have. Um, the Turks 391 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: see themselves as natural leaders of the Muslim world and 392 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:11,800 Speaker 1: that includes sunny and Well then all this is where 393 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 1: we go from here. Of course, CNN leading with the 394 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 1: report uh this morning of a double coming out of 395 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,440 Speaker 1: the consulate that looked like Mr Shogen all that. What 396 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 1: is a pro like you monitoring over the next over 397 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:30,400 Speaker 1: the next seventy two hours. Well, what's really, I think 398 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,960 Speaker 1: crucially important is the way in which the sad government 399 00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 1: responds to these revelations. Uh. It is a situation which 400 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,560 Speaker 1: is obviously very very difficult for the Saudist to get 401 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:46,479 Speaker 1: out of. The stories they've told are not believable. Uh. 402 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 1: This is going to shake the royal family even if 403 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:57,399 Speaker 1: Mohammed bin Salman remains the crown prince. Uh. Look for 404 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,200 Speaker 1: the king to reign him in a it and for 405 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 1: his enemies to regain some ground within the royal family. 406 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,080 Speaker 1: How do you depose Mohammed been Salmon if the royal 407 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,800 Speaker 1: family decides to do that. He's not the king, so 408 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 1: I guess he's not deposable. But have you figured out 409 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:18,159 Speaker 1: a path yet to what the royal family would do. 410 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:23,360 Speaker 1: I think it's unlikely that the king will depose his son, 411 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 1: and it's really up to the king. So any enemies 412 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 1: of Mohammed bin Salman will have to depose King Salman, 413 00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:34,880 Speaker 1: and it's going to be very hard. The Crown Prince 414 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:39,440 Speaker 1: and the king control all of the important services, the military, 415 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,960 Speaker 1: the Ministry of in Curia, the Saudi Arabian National Guard, 416 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 1: that could that could be the instruments of of toppling 417 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:50,399 Speaker 1: the king. But one can imagine that as Mohammed bin 418 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 1: Salman gets pulled deeper and deeper into this this scandal, 419 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,280 Speaker 1: that the king and people around him determined that the 420 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 1: young Crown Prince is doing a service to Saudi Arabia 421 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,159 Speaker 1: and some of those people who have been previously been 422 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,879 Speaker 1: sidelined been brought back as steady hands for the kingdom. 423 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:08,920 Speaker 1: Stephen at the time that we've got left with you. 424 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,159 Speaker 1: Let's pull it back to the United States. Can you 425 00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:16,159 Speaker 1: rate UH Secretary Pompeo's shuttle diplomacy of last week and 426 00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:19,720 Speaker 1: what would be the next step for the Secretary of State. Well, 427 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 1: I think that the administration is caught an extraordinarily awkward position. 428 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 1: Um too allies Turkey and Saudi Arabia vastly different stories, 429 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,640 Speaker 1: and I think that Pompeo's effort to try to get 430 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:36,520 Speaker 1: the Saudia's on board to at least telling something that's 431 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:41,359 Speaker 1: believable so that we can get past that wasn't entirely successful. 432 00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 1: I think the administration is growing frustrated with the Saudia. 433 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,120 Speaker 1: Isn't it's time for them to take them on publicly 434 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 1: and say you have to come clean. Does the Trump 435 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,680 Speaker 1: administration have a Middle East policy? I see Jerusalem in 436 00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:57,200 Speaker 1: the embassy there now Australia is considering that is well, 437 00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:00,040 Speaker 1: But do they have a Stephen A Cook policy? You 438 00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 1: can UH find. I think it's UH focus on countering Iran, 439 00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:12,159 Speaker 1: which is why the administration has been reluctant to UH 440 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,879 Speaker 1: come out swinging against the Saudis on the death of 441 00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:20,080 Speaker 1: Jamak Choti. UH it is to destroy the Islamic State 442 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 1: UH and in doing both of those things, it's maximum 443 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,800 Speaker 1: support for America's allies in the region, most of whom 444 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,160 Speaker 1: are authoritarian systems. Steven, thank you for the updates Stephen 445 00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,359 Speaker 1: and Cook with a Console on foreign relations, and again 446 00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:38,960 Speaker 1: just the highest recommendation of his short brief terse book 447 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 1: False Dawn on the Arab Spring in the path from that. 448 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:53,040 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and 449 00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast 450 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before 451 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.