1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,800 Speaker 1: Let's get to our guest, Peter McGuire, CEO of x 2 00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:06,640 Speaker 1: M Australia, for the latest on markets. Well, it seems 3 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:10,239 Speaker 1: like markets are speaking almost with one voice here. There 4 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: seemed to be concerned that these global interest rate hikes 5 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 1: that we've seen are probably too much for the global economy. 6 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: I note that the r B A uh, it's making 7 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: sounds like it's sort of getting towards the end of 8 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: the jumbo hikes. Is that what you're expecting? Or after 9 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: this one are we going to go back to basis 10 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 1: points or so? Uh? And um? Do you think maybe 11 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:38,880 Speaker 1: the Fed should be thinking about that model as well? Well? 12 00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 1: I think that's uh, that will be the kais Braun. 13 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 1: When you're looking at what we're experiencing this week, no 14 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 1: doupt will you know, wratchet up the analysts and everyone's 15 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 1: saying it's going to be fifty basis points for the ABBY. 16 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 1: I probably the ABBY and Z muse a little follow 17 00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: suit and we laid up to Christmas. We've got the 18 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,920 Speaker 1: wild animal being inflation trying to attain it. What the 19 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 1: Fed does, Yeah, they're probably further along the curve than 20 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 1: us naturally, but they've got to hire higher inflation rate 21 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:10,040 Speaker 1: to deal with, So I hope that we can manage 22 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:14,120 Speaker 1: it by November. Christmas is not too far away, and 23 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 1: the herd on Main Street are certainly being felt. So 24 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 1: it's a wait and see approach. Currencies are wild and 25 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 1: the opportunities I think are fairly strong at the moment. 26 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 1: Tell me here that you know what about your clients, 27 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 1: then some of them must of course take some outrageous bets, 28 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 1: but you know, generally, do you see them in particular 29 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 1: looking at any asset class anyway of defending the amount 30 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: of money or they're taking or I'm just taking a 31 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 1: while bets some things? Well, I think Chris, you know 32 00:01:44,480 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 1: that we've looked at currencies and the meltdown you've seen 33 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: as far as everything against dollar over the last let's 34 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:53,960 Speaker 1: put our mind back three to four months has just 35 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: been one way traffic strong US dollar and everything else 36 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 1: has created. Traders have just been rubbing their hands with 37 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:06,160 Speaker 1: glue from the retail sector that's being global and if 38 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 1: you're looking at their cell off. As far as equities, 39 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 1: many have been short on you name it, any equity 40 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 1: market and it's been very you know, the indexes has 41 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,520 Speaker 1: been a one way traffic as well, So that's over 42 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 1: the last say, four to five weeks. So will that 43 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: momentum continue, I wouldn't be surprised. Possibly for the next month. 44 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 1: It's too hard to forecast where we are, but you've 45 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 1: got mid terms leading up, and you've got a whole 46 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:35,160 Speaker 1: heap of other major concerns on on everyone's trading radar. 47 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: So if we do get an end of the year rally, 48 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:42,640 Speaker 1: which seasonally seems to happen quite a lot. I think 49 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:45,519 Speaker 1: the average for twenty years is four percent up for 50 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:50,079 Speaker 1: the SNP, will that be a bear market rally or 51 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:54,800 Speaker 1: will it kind of mark the bottom and moving forward 52 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,639 Speaker 1: from there? Well, Brian, I mean, you know, may well 53 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: be the bear market rally and maybe continues into twenty three. 54 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: The Fed and all the central bankers have inflation under 55 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: control with their uptick as far as rape ratcheting. So 56 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 1: if that's the storyline and we head into January February 57 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 1: with a feel good mood, then that's going to be 58 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 1: a strong gauge for the rest of twenty three, or 59 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 1: at least out of the starting blocks. But there's so many, 60 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: you know, big themes that need to be managed over 61 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 1: the next matter of weeks for us to get to 62 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 1: that launch pad, and that's the that's the uncertainty. So 63 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 1: let's all hope that we're at that point in time. 64 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: But you know, traders are looking through a reality set 65 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: of glasses and I think they're seeing not a lot 66 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: of rose tint at the moment. Well, in the situation 67 00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 1: though that you normally find that one of the biggest 68 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 1: heavens gold or even silver, and why is that materialized? Well, 69 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 1: I think it's been held under water for a long time, 70 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 1: resound and that hasn't just you know that US dollars 71 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: been off to the races goal. It's certainly the physical side. 72 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 1: It's getting a lot of momentum there from physical buyers, 73 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: and it's cheap buying at the moment. It's certainly not 74 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: it's cheap and you if you're looking at US dollars, 75 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 1: but if you're looking at other currencies, it's it's had 76 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 1: a very very solid move to the upside. You know, 77 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 1: we look at the older maxim from Warren Buffett, which 78 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 1: of curiously but one of them is prices, what you pay, 79 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:27,160 Speaker 1: values what you get. Well, with prices where they are, 80 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 1: where's the value or there's two the same saying of 81 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: the same side of the same coin as it were. Well, 82 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:36,040 Speaker 1: in a lot of ways, it is, Richard, because you 83 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 1: know we've have we've seen the floor. It's been a 84 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 1: wild year down for the NAS. Deck were conscious of 85 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,599 Speaker 1: it in September's washout was very, very severe. So yeah, 86 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,040 Speaker 1: the leading traders to scratch their heads a little bit. 87 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:52,720 Speaker 1: They're probably is good buying. But the old story, you know, 88 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 1: is it a falling knife and you might cut yourself 89 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 1: if you keep on trying to pick it up on 90 00:04:57,320 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 1: the way down. M We heard from companies in the US, FedEx, 91 00:05:01,640 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 1: Nike and others that they've they've got issues here and 92 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:09,840 Speaker 1: we'll be looking to cut costs, so they're they're having 93 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: to cut in order to get business. So that the 94 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:15,880 Speaker 1: flip the flip side of that is that that's kind 95 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: of disinflationary for consumers. I mean, bring prices down. It 96 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 1: could it could make the Fed's job a little a 97 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: little easier. So you know, there's there's there are ways 98 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 1: of looking reasonably positive I suppose going forward, but it 99 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 1: timing is a big thing, well exactly right, and that's 100 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 1: a you know, any any c if I will go 101 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 1: to the board and say right, We've had a think tank, 102 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:40,480 Speaker 1: We've looked at how we're going to move forward. We 103 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:44,559 Speaker 1: can cut prices, trim margins, and that's just a normal 104 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,200 Speaker 1: event as far as any strategy is concerned from a 105 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 1: C suite. So if that's going to be successful, we've 106 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:53,839 Speaker 1: just got to see how much appetite main Street has 107 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 1: to those cut costs or those cutting product costs. And 108 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: that's so forward looking. You know, we look back in 109 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 1: a couple of months time and say whether it was successful. 110 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 1: It probably will be, but it's too early to call. 111 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 1: And that's the that's the joy of trading these markets. Joy. Okay, well, 112 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:16,480 Speaker 1: if you find a good at that. I want to 113 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:19,240 Speaker 1: pick up on something you mentioned in the last section 114 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 1: we were talking to you, and that was you mentioned 115 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 1: the midterms and normally the markets would be positioning themselves 116 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:27,200 Speaker 1: ahead of those, and it doesn't look like they could 117 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 1: be very tight. It gives a sense of why people 118 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 1: are not really I suppose it's the FED story which 119 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 1: is dominating, but they're not really concerned, it seems. And 120 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 1: geopolitics playing a role here too, well, exactly right. I 121 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:43,120 Speaker 1: think that everyone's frame is on the you know, the Ukraine, 122 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 1: the nord Stream, possibly the Brazilian elections, and that seems 123 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:49,920 Speaker 1: to be getting a lot of main straight in with 124 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 1: of course what we experienced with the pound last week. 125 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 1: And it's been a very solid month as far as 126 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,719 Speaker 1: news when you're looking at the you know, the Queen 127 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:02,039 Speaker 1: passed away and new king, new prime minister in the UK, 128 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: So it just hasn't really got that sweet spot yet, 129 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: but that may may materialize in the next probably six 130 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: to ten days. I think that news will start to 131 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 1: change and there will be a bit more consideration from 132 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 1: you know, the voting public, and sitting in Australia we 133 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 1: don't see a lot, but I'm sure that that will 134 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 1: uptick across Asia in the next matter of a week 135 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 1: or two. Yeah, we haven't talked about China much. We 136 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: don't have elections there, but we do have the Party 137 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 1: Congress coming up. Is there you know? Is there a 138 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: flip side of that, of that long set of meetings 139 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: that offers opportunities for you, Peter, Well, in some ways 140 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: it does, because Brian, you know, the we've seen that 141 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 1: big sell off affecting global markets, and certainly China hasn't 142 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 1: missed out on that. So I think that many traders 143 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 1: are looking at you know, possibly, uh, we get out 144 00:07:55,920 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 1: of this particular situation for the next couple of weeks 145 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 1: and we get a clear ideas whereas China has positioned itself, 146 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 1: we wouldn't be surprised to see an increase as far 147 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 1: as stimulus would be good for the mining companies. I 148 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 1: think the appetite might start to increase for base medals 149 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 1: and the overall theme there. So you know, we might 150 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 1: be looking at some barely good numbers considering the price 151 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 1: you've seen as far as or sell off and all 152 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 1: of the base medals have certainly created, so that could 153 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: be a turnaround. Peter. Not unrelated, is a line of 154 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 1: least resistance higher for the dollar very quickly? Yes, I 155 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 1: think I think that there is a bit more upside 156 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:40,599 Speaker 1: there for that U S. Dollar index. Peter always go 157 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 1: talking to Peter McGuire they see of x M Australia 158 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 1: getting his taker on the markets.