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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: It's good for the wind, all right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go.

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Speaker 2: Throwing into spectacular cat So I'm saying it's a catch

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Speaker 2: to start.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make.

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Speaker 1: Money, all right.

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate combine you want to pull. Man,

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Speaker 2: we are underway. Hello everyone, Welcome to the Action Network

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Speaker 2: podcast NFL Draft Betting Preview, presented by Bett MGM, the

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Speaker 2: official odds provider of the show. I'm Matthew Friedman, the

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Speaker 2: self declared yet unofficial NFL Draft guru at Action Network,

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Speaker 2: and here with me are Shawn Corner and Chris Raybond.

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Speaker 2: We have got the gang back together. Sean is the

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Speaker 2: Action Network Director of Predictive Analytics, and Chris is a

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Speaker 2: senior editor and analyst at the Action Network. They are

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Speaker 2: too of the best fantasy football rankers and NFL prop

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Speaker 2: betters in the world. Sean, Chris, I haven't talked to

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Speaker 2: you guys for a while. Consequently, it's been maybe the

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Speaker 2: best couple of months of my life. How have you

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Speaker 2: guys been.

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Speaker 4: I've been good, man.

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Speaker 1: I'm looking like Sean's hat is fresh right now, man,

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Speaker 1: I'm usually the guy with the freshest hat in the pods,

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Speaker 1: so like prop to Sean, but been good man, it's

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Speaker 1: good to get back together.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Sean, how are you doing that? Chris is right,

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Speaker 2: that hat is very fresh.

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Speaker 4: I need it for my first prop, so it's there's

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Speaker 4: a reason I'm wearing this hat, as you'll find out

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Speaker 4: very soon.

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Speaker 2: All right, very very good. It's great to be back

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Speaker 2: in the saddle with you guys and joining us for

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Speaker 2: this very special episode of the I should mention award

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Speaker 2: winning Action Network podcast is the best NFL mock drafter

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Speaker 2: in the world over the past three years. I'm talking

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Speaker 2: about the Scott Smith, who's mock drafts you can find

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Speaker 2: at Action Network. As you are listening to this, there's

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Speaker 2: a chance, maybe a very good chance, that Scott's most

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Speaker 2: recent mock just completed, will be available on the site. Scott,

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Speaker 2: we're just a few days away from the NFL draft.

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Speaker 3: How's it going, both, Man, it's grind time right now,

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Speaker 3: so you know you're really kind of hedging and going

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Speaker 3: through all the rumors and all the smoke screens that

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Speaker 3: are out there to try to make heads and see

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Speaker 3: what's going on and what's right. You know, all the

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Speaker 3: GM's have got their poker faces going on right now

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Speaker 3: and we're just trying to sort through all the crop.

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Speaker 2: It's great having you on the show. It's always fun

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Speaker 2: to talk shop with you about the NFL Draft. In

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Speaker 2: this episode, we're running through our five favorite NFL draft

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Speaker 2: props in the market right now. Dare I say it

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Speaker 2: is the twenty twenty one NFL Draft propapalooza. The guy

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Speaker 2: is drunk, but there we go. I am almost as

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Speaker 2: excited as to talk props as I am to read

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Speaker 2: the NFL Draft Insider's Prop Tool at Action Labs. In

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Speaker 2: the tool, we have pulled in the odds for many

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Speaker 2: of the draft props in the market so you can

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Speaker 2: see what's out there. And this is the best part

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Speaker 2: in the tool, I provide my lines for each prop

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Speaker 2: so you can see where we think think the biggest

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Speaker 2: edges are. I also have many of my favorite props

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Speaker 2: tracked in the tool so you can see my prop portfolio.

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Speaker 2: purchase at Action Labs. Gentlemen, let's jump into it. We

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Speaker 2: are going from five to one, each of us giving

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Speaker 2: our five favorite props on the board. Now, Scott, I

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Speaker 2: want to start with you give me your fifth favorite prop.

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Speaker 3: Look, my fifth favorite prop is one that I think

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Speaker 3: is like pretty easy to go ahead and digest, and

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Speaker 3: it's going to be over er point five running backs

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Speaker 3: taking in round one. You're looking at the odds at

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Speaker 3: minus two twenty five. I think, really, when you break

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Speaker 3: it down and start looking at it, and you can

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Speaker 3: even refer back to last year when you had five

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Speaker 3: Edward Tilarira going, I think Nase Harrison atm or are

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Speaker 3: both ranked higher than what most people would have had.

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Speaker 3: Cide was Hill last year, and I said, so you

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Speaker 3: start looking at that and even some of the scouting takes.

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Speaker 3: What you have on Naj Harris and how he fits

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Speaker 3: in today's game is a bigger back that's that's smooth

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Speaker 3: and fluid catching the ball. I think there's a very

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Speaker 3: good chance you have these two guys as good bet

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Speaker 3: to one of them going and in the first round

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Speaker 3: with an outside shot with Javonte Williams. A lot of

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Speaker 3: people in the scouting community tend to like him. But really,

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Speaker 3: when I look at this first round and I start

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Speaker 3: looking at some of it, you know, you've got the Jets,

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Speaker 3: You've got the Steelers. You know, even Tampa Bay returned

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Speaker 3: to all twenty two starters. They don't have a drastic need.

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Speaker 3: So and you start looking at some of those teams

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Speaker 3: right there in the second round that may want to

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Speaker 3: trade up to the back end of the first round

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Speaker 3: and maybe get one of these running backs. I like

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Speaker 3: the play to go ahead and bet on at least

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Speaker 3: one running back getting taken here in the first round.

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Speaker 2: Okay, and that number is minus two twenty five across

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Speaker 2: the industry. Sean, I want to kick it to you.

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Speaker 2: What is one of your favorite props.

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Speaker 4: So let's kick it off with the fun one. This

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Speaker 4: is a twenty to one long shot, but I'm going

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Speaker 4: with the Cardinals drafting Jalen Waddle, And this is sort

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Speaker 4: of betting on the draft being chaotics. I'm betting on

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Speaker 4: variants here. I think the funds really going to start

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Speaker 4: when we get to the Falcons, Bengals, Dolphins portion of

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Speaker 4: the draft. And you know, if we get a curveball there,

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Speaker 4: I think it's going to make the range of outcomes

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Speaker 4: for the Lions even wider. I'm including the possibility that

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Speaker 4: the lines trade down, So I think the Lions are

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Speaker 4: probably the most likely spot for Wattle to goo. But

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Speaker 4: I mean, it's not too crazy to see him slip

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Speaker 4: to sixteen. I think that's certainly his floor. But I've

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Speaker 4: been seeing some rumors that the Cardinals love wattle and

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Speaker 4: they're willing to trade up, so you know, they're potentially

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Speaker 4: a trade up candidate, either the Lions or the Giants.

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Speaker 4: And you know, the most recent mock by Daniel Jeremiah

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Speaker 4: has the Cardinals getting wattle at sixteen, and Peter Suger's

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Speaker 4: recent monck has them trading up to seven to take wattle.

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Speaker 4: So I think just the more sharper recent mocks have

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Speaker 4: the Cardinals taking wattle. So I'm going to take them

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Speaker 4: here at twenty to one. I think, you know, this

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Speaker 4: should be closer to thirteen to one. I obviously don't

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Speaker 4: think it's gonna happen, but I'm taking the value here

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Speaker 4: at twenty to one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And as you said, those recent monks have the

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Speaker 2: Cardinals going with Wattle. I think even in my first

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Speaker 2: mock a couple of months ago, I had Wattle going

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Speaker 2: number sixteen to the Cardinals. I've moved off of that,

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Speaker 2: but I mean I can see how it happens a

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Speaker 2: couple of ways it could happen. Ray Bon, give me

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Speaker 2: one of your favorite props for the twenty twenty one

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Speaker 2: NFL drafts on sexy.

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Speaker 1: But I still think the odds are not not as

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Speaker 1: good as they should be here. So I'm going under

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Speaker 1: one and a half tight ends in the first round.

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Speaker 1: Kle Pits obviously will go top ten, probably top five,

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Speaker 1: but I don't really see another tight end going til

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Speaker 1: the mid second round at the earliest. So minus five

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Speaker 1: fifty I think those odds are you know, even though

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Speaker 1: in a juice step I think they're way too low.

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Speaker 1: I'll bet them to about minus nine hundred or so.

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Speaker 2: Okay, my inclination is to side with you on this one.

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Speaker 2: I am slightly terrified though, of Pat Frayermuth coming out

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Speaker 2: of Penn State. There are rumors that Jacksonville really likes

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Speaker 2: him and that they're considering him at number twenty five.

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Speaker 2: I don't think that happens. I think it's likely that

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Speaker 2: if they take him, they do it in the second round.

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Speaker 2: They could do it at the first pick in the

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Speaker 2: second round. They could even do it later in the

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Speaker 2: second round. But Frayermuth. If there is one guy who's

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Speaker 2: going to slide into the first round and ruin this prop,

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Speaker 2: it will be Freyermuth. I don't think it happens. But

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Speaker 2: that is one of the sort of like random players

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Speaker 2: that I'm going to be ayeing on Thursday night and

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Speaker 2: just praying as we get into the twenties that I

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Speaker 2: do not hear his name called Raymond. I'm with you

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Speaker 2: on that prop. One of my favorites, and this one's

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Speaker 2: kind of obscure. Under two and a half pack twelve

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Speaker 2: players in round one, it is plus one hundred. At

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Speaker 2: some books this number should be minus four hundred, minus

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Speaker 2: five hundred. There are two pac twelve guys who are

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Speaker 2: locked in, Pina Suwell and Elijah Veratucker. You know, both

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Speaker 2: of those guys I think go in the top half

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Speaker 2: of round one. But after them, it is very thin

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Speaker 2: edge rusher Joe Tryon out of Washington. He has a shot,

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Speaker 2: but he's in the only maybe ten percent of the

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Speaker 2: sharp mocks that I've seen so I think there might

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Speaker 2: be five other Edges ahead of him in this class. Again,

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Speaker 2: this is something of an obscure prop. That's why it's

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Speaker 2: not higher up this list. But out of all of

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Speaker 2: the props I see right now, this one might be

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Speaker 2: the one that provides the most value. Again under two

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Speaker 2: and a half pack twelve players in round one plus

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Speaker 2: one hundred. Scott, give me another prop that you like

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Speaker 2: for the twenty twenty one NFL draft.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the next one I like is actually had a

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Speaker 3: little bit of movement. Initially it was that plus one

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Speaker 3: oh five. Now it's up to plus one twenty. But

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Speaker 3: it's the over six and a half on Trey Lance. Really,

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Speaker 3: when you start breaking down, Trey Lance has had a

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Speaker 3: few connections there to the third pickover with forty nine ers.

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Speaker 3: But when you start listening to some of the guys

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Speaker 3: that are tuned in, and Michael Lombardi, who you know

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Speaker 3: was a GM, he's tuned in with some of the

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Speaker 3: guys there, you know, he talks about Trey Lance being

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Speaker 3: a year away from being a year away. So I

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Speaker 3: think when we start looking at it, I think if

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Speaker 3: the forty nine ers don't draft him at three, we

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Speaker 3: talked a little bit before the show. I'm highly doubtful

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Speaker 3: that Atlanta would go ahead and take him at four.

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Speaker 3: I think when you start looking at some of those teams,

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Speaker 3: you know, drafting a quarterback that high in the top

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Speaker 3: five who was a year away from being a year

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Speaker 3: away sitting probably two years. And then you know five,

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Speaker 3: we've got Cincinnati kind of tuned in to either Chase

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Speaker 3: or nay Seoul. You really start looking at that six position,

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Speaker 3: and our team's going to trade up to six to

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Speaker 3: get Lance. And if Lance doesn't go at six, you

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Speaker 3: have you know, seven, eight, nine, where seven and eight

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Speaker 3: could be a trade up position to either Carolina or Detroit.

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Speaker 3: And then you're really looking at Denver there at nine

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Speaker 3: being the pick that I would probably project right now

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Speaker 3: to be the one taking Trey Lance.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you there on Trey Lance over six

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Speaker 2: and a half. That is one that is on my card. Sean,

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Speaker 2: give me another of your favorite props.

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Speaker 4: Go with another wide receiver landing spot. This one Devonte

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Speaker 4: Smith gone of the Eagles at plus four fifty. This

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Speaker 4: is sort of a hedge on my extreme Wattle bet.

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Speaker 4: You know, if the Lions or Giants take Wattle, probably

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Speaker 4: lost that bet or I did lose that bet, so

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Speaker 4: I think that that would make it even more likely

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Speaker 4: that the Eagles take DeVonta Smith here. You know, I

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Speaker 4: like the over eleven and a half at minus one

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Speaker 4: thirty first Smith, I think there might be some concern

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Speaker 4: that his recent way in was one sixty six. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I personally wouldn't be concerned about that, but you never know,

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Speaker 4: So that would, you know, land him with the Eagles

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Speaker 4: at number twelve. And I think even if Wattle's on

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Speaker 4: the board, I could see the Eagles, you know, leaning

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Speaker 4: towards the higher floor player. You know, they've had a

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Speaker 4: couple of whiffs recently in drafts at wide receivers, so

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Speaker 4: I think they might be a little more cautious and

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Speaker 4: take Smith. So either way, I think this should be

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Speaker 4: closer to plus three hundred, So I'm gonna take the

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Speaker 4: value here at plus four to fifty.

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Speaker 2: Shawn, to your point, right now, we are seeing eleven

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Speaker 2: and a half is the over under that is out

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Speaker 2: there for Davante Smith, and so for him to go

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Speaker 2: to the Eagles, who right now have the number twelve pick,

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Speaker 2: I mean, that's well within the range of outcomes just

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Speaker 2: in terms of what Vegas is projecting here, and so

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Speaker 2: to get him at four fifty I think is excellent value. Chris,

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Speaker 2: give me another of your favorite NFL draft props.

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Speaker 1: I just got to say, that's like, it's ridiculous, like

263
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Speaker 1: this should go much higher than that, Like in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: he should go right after Chase or you know, like

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Speaker 1: I'm not even like against him going before him, but

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Speaker 1: I know he's not, but that it's just outrageous. But

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Speaker 1: I'm going for mine with another wide receiver a little

268
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Speaker 1: further down the board, Rashad Bateman under twenty sixth and

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Speaker 1: a half draft spot, so I mean getting taken higher

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Speaker 1: at plus one ten, so it's better than plus money.

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Speaker 1: I think it's I think this is this prop is

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Speaker 1: relatively on point, but I like the plus money for

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Speaker 1: him to go under. I think you see a bunch

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Speaker 1: of teams in the twenties that could take a wide receiver,

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Speaker 1: and I think he'll be the fourth guy so on

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Speaker 1: the coast the tight ends, I think to take a

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Speaker 1: wide receiver, I think the Browns at twenty six our

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Speaker 1: team to watch as well, and so and I also

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Speaker 1: think somebody could trade up, even if it's like a

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Speaker 1: spot or two at that spot in the draft. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you have the Packers, you have the Ravens teams like that,

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Speaker 1: so he's been kind of floating around that spot for me.

283
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Speaker 1: But I like the plus money on Bateman to go

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Speaker 1: twenty sixth or higher.

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Speaker 2: All Right, we might have some debate on this, Scott,

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Speaker 2: I would like to get your thoughts. I've seen Bateman

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Speaker 2: in about half of the you know, sharper mock drafts

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Speaker 2: that I look at, So if I had to set

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Speaker 2: this line, I would set it around thirty two and

290
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Speaker 2: a half. I think it's a coin flip roughly whether

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Speaker 2: he gets into round one or not. Scott, do you

292
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Speaker 2: have a lean on Bateman whether we see him in

293
00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:10,120
Speaker 2: round one and where you are on twenty six and

294
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Speaker 2: a half?

295
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think twenty six and a half is a

296
00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,160
Speaker 3: spot or two higher. I would be a little bit

297
00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:18,800
Speaker 3: more comfortable at twenty eight. I think one of the

298
00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:20,840
Speaker 3: tools I particularly use a lot when I'm setting my

299
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Speaker 3: mock draft boards is the consensus big board over at

300
00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:26,520
Speaker 3: the Athletic and they have him ranked twenty eighth. You know,

301
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Speaker 3: that's the aggregate of numerous scouting you know, rankers and

302
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Speaker 3: things like that, So that's kind of the round. The

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00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:34,120
Speaker 3: other thing you really have to look at the player

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Speaker 3: that kind of like throws the monkey wrench in here

305
00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,400
Speaker 3: is Cadarius Tony. You know, I've heard, you know, some

306
00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:41,560
Speaker 3: scouts have him as high as like fifteenth. He's a

307
00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:44,800
Speaker 3: guy that a lot of people seem to like, and

308
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Speaker 3: it's picking up steam as far as going. And he's

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Speaker 3: a guy that I've seen Mack as highest to Chicago

310
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Speaker 3: to you know, to the Bears and things like that.

311
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Speaker 3: So I think Kadarius Tony is the guy who could

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Speaker 3: possibly cause a problem with Bateman being drafted in that position.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think both of those guys are coin flips

314
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Speaker 2: for round one. I mean, I'm with Raymond and that

315
00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:06,040
Speaker 2: I Abateman as my number four wide receiver. I think

316
00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:08,720
Speaker 2: he should be going in that range. Hard to know

317
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Speaker 2: if that's what happens here. One of my favorite props.

318
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Speaker 2: I gotta say this is similar to Raybonds, you know,

319
00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:21,240
Speaker 2: under one and a half tight ends, you know, not sexy.

320
00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:25,080
Speaker 2: I'm going Trayvon Morigg as the number one safety in

321
00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:28,200
Speaker 2: the draft. It's minus four hundred at bet MGM. So again,

322
00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:30,760
Speaker 2: it's not sexy to lay this much juice, But this

323
00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:34,600
Speaker 2: line should be minus nine hundred minus one thousand Morig.

324
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Speaker 2: You know, of course, coming from the great school of TCU.

325
00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:39,880
Speaker 2: He won the Thorpe Award last year as the nation's

326
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Speaker 2: top defensive back, and there's no one close to him

327
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Speaker 2: at safety in this class. Morigg should go in the

328
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Speaker 2: twenties or thirties. The two guys who might challenge him,

329
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Speaker 2: Richie Grant and Javon Holland, they're likely go in the

330
00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,720
Speaker 2: forties and fifties. And not one mock if I seen

331
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Speaker 2: a safety drafted ahead of Moreig, like, I just think

332
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Speaker 2: he's like Chase as the new number one wide receiver

333
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Speaker 2: in this class. That's what Morey is to the safeties

334
00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:06,440
Speaker 2: in this class. Like he's just locked in as the

335
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Speaker 2: number one guy. And to get him at minus four hundred,

336
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,440
Speaker 2: I think it's such fantastic value. Again, no one wants

337
00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,440
Speaker 2: to lay that much juice, but it's totally worth it

338
00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:18,280
Speaker 2: for a guy who really is this head and shoulders

339
00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:22,040
Speaker 2: above everyone else at the position. So that is one

340
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Speaker 2: of my favorite props for the twenty twenty one NFL Draft. Scott,

341
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Speaker 2: coming back to you, give me another of your favorite

342
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Speaker 2: props for the draft.

343
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Speaker 3: Look, whenever you're playing poker and you have your hand.

344
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,000
Speaker 3: You're looking for a bunch of outs and this next

345
00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,560
Speaker 3: prop is kind of going to give you that. And

346
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Speaker 3: what we're talking about is minus one sixty five for

347
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Speaker 3: over five and a half Alabama players drafted in the

348
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Speaker 3: first round. I think when we look at it, you

349
00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:50,360
Speaker 3: can really lock down four guys. We know mac Jones,

350
00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,320
Speaker 3: we know Wattle, we know Smith, and we know Patrick.

351
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Speaker 3: Certain those guys are all kind of like in that

352
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Speaker 3: top half. You know, we just talked about it earlier.

353
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Speaker 3: I think Naje Harris has a good shot of going

354
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Speaker 3: and Christian Barmore is pretty much that the top defensive

355
00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:07,720
Speaker 3: tackle in this draft, and it's a weak class. So

356
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Speaker 3: I think you could also see a team move to

357
00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:12,800
Speaker 3: move in to go ahead and make him, you know,

358
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Speaker 3: their pick, especially in the first round. That right there

359
00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:17,920
Speaker 3: would give you six. And then you start looking at

360
00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 3: some other mock drafts, you start looking at some other

361
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:23,480
Speaker 3: scouting services, and you've got Landon Dickerson. You know who

362
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:27,159
Speaker 3: is ranked around you know pick thirty three, you know

363
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,840
Speaker 3: thirty five ranks. He's a player that could possibly move up.

364
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,080
Speaker 3: I've seen him kind of link to to the Ravens,

365
00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,040
Speaker 3: a decent bit and then you also have to tackle

366
00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:38,119
Speaker 3: Alex Leatherwood. When you start talking about this tackle class,

367
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Speaker 3: one of the complaints that you have with a lot

368
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Speaker 3: of the tackles that are projected here is that they

369
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,640
Speaker 3: all have short arms. Leatherwood's one of the guys who

370
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 3: doesn't fall into that category. He's measuring out right there

371
00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:49,720
Speaker 3: around that thirty four inch arm lenk, which is one

372
00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:52,919
Speaker 3: of the thresholds that you know, Scotting community and GM's

373
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Speaker 3: really look for when they're getting tackles. So I think

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Speaker 3: this is a This is a prop that has a

375
00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,280
Speaker 3: lot of outs for you to go ahead and hit.

376
00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:01,440
Speaker 3: Even if you miss on one of those guys being

377
00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:03,400
Speaker 3: in there, I think you have out to go ahead

378
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 3: and get a couple of other guys. I'd be comfortable

379
00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,040
Speaker 3: betting it down on minus two fifty.

380
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:10,480
Speaker 2: Scott, I'm with you. I love this prop. And looking

381
00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:12,639
Speaker 2: at Leatherwood, I mean, he could go as high as

382
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,160
Speaker 2: the number four tackle on the board. He could maybe

383
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:18,240
Speaker 2: be number seven. But the difference between the guys number

384
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,680
Speaker 2: four to number seven in this tackle class, there's really

385
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:22,640
Speaker 2: not much of a difference between them. And you look

386
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:24,879
Speaker 2: at Leatherwood, as you mentioned, he's got those long arms.

387
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:28,280
Speaker 2: He was a unanimous All American last year, and you

388
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,399
Speaker 2: mentioned Landon Dickerson. I think he's the best center in

389
00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,280
Speaker 2: the class. If not for the injury concerns, he would

390
00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 2: be a lock in the first round. And even with

391
00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:38,880
Speaker 2: the injury issues coming off the ACL, you could still

392
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,199
Speaker 2: see him sneaking into the bottom of round one and

393
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:43,480
Speaker 2: then all those other guys you mentioned. I'm with you,

394
00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:48,560
Speaker 2: absolutely love this prop. Sean, give me another of your

395
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Speaker 2: favorite props for the NFL Draft.

396
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Speaker 4: So I'm gonna go with J. C. Horn Draft position

397
00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:57,560
Speaker 4: over twelve and a half at minus one ten. You

398
00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:01,080
Speaker 4: know Patrick Sutan Junior's likely to be the first cornerback

399
00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,639
Speaker 4: off the board. At minus three fifty, it looks like,

400
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,359
Speaker 4: you know, Dallas will probably be the first team to

401
00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:08,120
Speaker 4: take a corner. So you know, this seems like will

402
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,120
Speaker 4: the Giants or Eagles take him? And I already talked

403
00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:12,719
Speaker 4: about the Eagles will potentially be taking a wide receiver.

404
00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,680
Speaker 4: The Giants have a wide range bout comes at eleven.

405
00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:18,440
Speaker 4: You know, the one wrinkle on this could be if

406
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,399
Speaker 4: Carolina takes a corner at eight, So you know Dallas

407
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,840
Speaker 4: might take Horn, and you know Scott might tell me

408
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,840
Speaker 4: later on that it's more likely than I realized that

409
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,640
Speaker 4: the Panthers might do that. So I think that's that's

410
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:31,639
Speaker 4: one of the wrinkles in this. But I you know,

411
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,240
Speaker 4: when you add up all the probabilities and stuff, I

412
00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:36,399
Speaker 4: think minus one ten is still too low. I'd probably

413
00:19:36,400 --> 00:19:39,400
Speaker 4: bet this up to minus one fifty. And I think,

414
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 4: you know, I think it's very likely he goes between

415
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,040
Speaker 4: thirteen and seventeen. I don't think he falls outside of

416
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:44,800
Speaker 4: the top seventeen.

417
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:48,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's where you see him in the super majority

418
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:53,159
Speaker 2: of mock drafts. Number sixteen to the Cardinals looks like

419
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:56,880
Speaker 2: his absolute floor. That's a pretty standard spot for him

420
00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 2: to be mocked. But I think he has a wide

421
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:03,560
Speaker 2: range of outcomes, you know, because he has such phenomenal athleticism.

422
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,960
Speaker 2: It's within the realm of possibility that there are NFL

423
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:10,520
Speaker 2: teams that actually do prefer him to certain and so that,

424
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 2: you know, might kind of throw a wrench in this.

425
00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:15,800
Speaker 2: But you're looking at the mock draft data right now,

426
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:19,520
Speaker 2: this looks like a pretty good bet. Ray Bond. Give

427
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,320
Speaker 2: me one of your favorite props for the twenty twenty

428
00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:24,360
Speaker 2: one NFL Draft, all right, So.

429
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 1: Here's the one with you know, Scott kind of mentioned

430
00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:30,439
Speaker 1: outs and I'm curious to hear you guys opinion on

431
00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,160
Speaker 1: it because it's I don't know like how data backed

432
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:34,920
Speaker 1: up it is, but I just like the odds here,

433
00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:38,159
Speaker 1: I'm based on his team's history. So I'm going Dallas

434
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,400
Speaker 1: Cowboys to take an offensive player and with their first

435
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:44,600
Speaker 1: pick at plus three seventy five. And the reason being

436
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,399
Speaker 1: is the Cowboys sitting there at number ten. You know,

437
00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 1: everybody expects them to take a cornerback. I think that

438
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,680
Speaker 1: is their biggest need. Obviously it's priced into the odds,

439
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 1: but there could be a lot of chaos in these

440
00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,879
Speaker 1: first ten picks, and it really depends on you know,

441
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 1: situations with with these with these quarterbacks and teams trading up,

442
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:05,920
Speaker 1: and we don't know, you know, we're not one hundred

443
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,120
Speaker 1: percent sure if Kyle Pitts goes you know, top five

444
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,920
Speaker 1: or and guys could start falling down, I mean stools

445
00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 1: another guy. So what happens if, you know, kind of

446
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 1: similar to last season when a top offensive prospect and

447
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:22,920
Speaker 1: there are a lot of them going right, you know,

448
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 1: right before Dallas is you know slated to pick. What

449
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 1: if one of those guys falls, you know, does Dallas

450
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,439
Speaker 1: take the bait. We've seen them do it in the past,

451
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 1: and there are you know, a bunch of you know,

452
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 1: offensive line It's not what it once was for Dallas.

453
00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:39,080
Speaker 1: You know, there are a bunch of offensive line prospects

454
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,159
Speaker 1: kind of that would be you know, to go in

455
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 1: that range as well. So I think Dallas that plus

456
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 1: three seventy five is pretty interesting. I think there's still

457
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 1: about like a one and four is chance that they

458
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,679
Speaker 1: do that. They that they take an offensive player for

459
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 1: whatever reason. So I bet that down to plus three hundred.

460
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, plus three seventy five, that's that's a lot in Scott,

461
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,440
Speaker 2: I would like your thoughts on this because you could see,

462
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 2: you know, whether it's Sewell or whether it's Rashaan Slater.

463
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 2: You could see one of these really premium offensive tackles

464
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 2: falling down to the Cowboys at number ten. If that happens,

465
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 2: let's say Slater and Certain are both on the board,

466
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 2: what do you think the Cowboys will do.

467
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 3: I think if those two players were on the board,

468
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,399
Speaker 3: I think Certain would be the pick. However, when you

469
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 3: start looking at things, Patrick Certain has been the most

470
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 3: mocked draft player to any team going to the Cowboys

471
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:35,920
Speaker 3: in sixty six percent of mock drafts that have been out,

472
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,160
Speaker 3: so it's quite a popular pick. But you know, we'll

473
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:41,640
Speaker 3: see later and I'll talk about Patrick Sartain coming up soon.

474
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 3: But I think if Patrick Sartain's not there, you have

475
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 3: to look at two players for the Cowboys. Those two

476
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,880
Speaker 3: players are going to be Rayshans Later, the tackle from

477
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 3: Northwestern who some people you know, go ahead and compare

478
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:56,439
Speaker 3: to Zach Martin and he may be a better guard,

479
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 3: so the Cowboys could actually play him at guard and

480
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 3: then move him outside to Ales Smith moves on. But

481
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 3: I think both he and j. C. Horn would be

482
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,160
Speaker 3: the two players, and I think rays On Slater may

483
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 3: have a little bit of an edge on JC Horn

484
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:13,120
Speaker 3: as far as like going to the Cowboys. I think

485
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 3: when you start looking at it and if certain is

486
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 3: off the board before that pick goes to the Cowboys,

487
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 3: I think this is a great bet for Slater to

488
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,120
Speaker 3: go ahead and be the pick there for the Cowboys.

489
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, Raymon, I like that one quite a bit. I

490
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:28,159
Speaker 2: think plus three seventy five those are good odds for

491
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 2: a long shot bet. One of my favorites for the

492
00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 2: draft is again it's unsexy, but under five and a

493
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 2: half quarterbacks in round one. You can find this at

494
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 2: bet MGM at minus four point fifty in the way

495
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 2: that Raybond would say this, I would bet this to

496
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 2: any juice. I would bet this to the moon. Okay.

497
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,160
Speaker 2: Benjamin Robinson of Grinding the Mocks, he did a great

498
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 2: study at Football out Siders, noting that quarterbacks slide down

499
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 2: the board relative to where they're mocked. Think of Drew

500
00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 2: Locke sliding to round two a couple of years ago

501
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,679
Speaker 2: when everyone had him mocked in round one. Everyone assumes

502
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 2: that the big five quarterbacks will all go in round one,

503
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,919
Speaker 2: but one of them could slide. Lamar Jackson fell or

504
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 2: almost fell out of the first round a few years ago,

505
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 2: fell all the way to pick number thirty two. You know,

506
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:19,639
Speaker 2: one of them could slide. It's not likely, But even

507
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,720
Speaker 2: if all five of them go in round one, you

508
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 2: still have to get a six quarterback into the top

509
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 2: thirty two, and no quarterback outside of the Big five

510
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 2: is generating anything close to that kind of hype. Only

511
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:35,959
Speaker 2: once in NFL history, with the all time great nineteen

512
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,920
Speaker 2: eighty three class with Elway and Marino and Kelly, only

513
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,440
Speaker 2: once have we seen six quarterbacks go in round one.

514
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,679
Speaker 2: The odds of it happening in this draft are maybe

515
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 2: one percent, and even that feels high. I love under

516
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 2: five and a half quarterbacks in round one again, regardless

517
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 2: of the juice. One of my favorite bets on the board.

518
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 4: Which team would you be most worried about taking the

519
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 4: six dB Tampa Bay at thirty two?

520
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 3: Yeah?

521
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, They being like, Oh, our team is great, we

522
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:09,120
Speaker 2: don't really have any needs. All of our starters are returning.

523
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,879
Speaker 2: Let's draft our quarterback of the future and just let

524
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 2: him sit behind Brady for a couple of years. The

525
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 2: thought of that happening terrifies me, But I don't think

526
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,440
Speaker 2: that's going to happen. I would be more worried about

527
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 2: them taking a running back than about them taking a quarterback.

528
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 2: All right, Scott, I'm coming back to you. I want

529
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 2: to get another of your favorite bets for the twenty

530
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:36,520
Speaker 2: twenty one NFL Draft. And before the show we were talking.

531
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 2: I believe that you think, out of the ones that

532
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 2: you like, that this is the safest bet.

533
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 1: Yeah.

534
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 3: I think when we start looking at a Jamar Chase

535
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 3: to the Bengals is a plus one seventy five. You know,

536
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 3: there's I think when you look at the Bengals, there's

537
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 3: only two players, so you're basically deciding that this is

538
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,679
Speaker 3: the fifty to fifty proposition. They're either going to take

539
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 3: the Nasol or they're going to take you know, Jamar Chase.

540
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 3: We talked a little bit about it. Kyle Pitts is

541
00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 3: a little bit of a question mark, but I really

542
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 3: don't think he gets past Atlanta. You start looking at things,

543
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 3: and Jamar Chase has the connection with Burrow. I think

544
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 3: when you start looking at some of the scouting community,

545
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,119
Speaker 3: not everybody is completely sold that pina Sole is the

546
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 3: best tackle in this draft. You have some guys that

547
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 3: likes later and I think with the depth that you

548
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,440
Speaker 3: have at the tackle position, I think there's a much

549
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,360
Speaker 3: bigger gap as far as the talent dropt off between

550
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:32,879
Speaker 3: getting Jamar Chase at pick five versus what wide receiver

551
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 3: you would be able to pick in the second round,

552
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 3: versus the talent gap that would be between Nay Soul

553
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:39,400
Speaker 3: and the tackle that you could get in the second round.

554
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 3: I just think it's too big of a gap. You know,

555
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,399
Speaker 3: Chase to the Bengals makes a lot of sense to me.

556
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 3: You know, is it going to be a little bit

557
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 3: of a luxury pick possibly, But we're talking about Jamar Chase,

558
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:52,400
Speaker 3: who's basically, you know, the best wide receiver prospect coming

559
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 3: out grated since I think Calvin Johnson on a lot

560
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,679
Speaker 3: of people's books. So when you start looking at that,

561
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,679
Speaker 3: I'm really comfortable getting positive money here. I'm more than

562
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 3: comfortable to go ahead and project Jamar Chase to the

563
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 3: Bangals at five.

564
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,119
Speaker 2: I mean, I think there's a greater chance than not

565
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,600
Speaker 2: that it's Jamar Chase. So even at plus one hundred,

566
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 2: I think you're still getting value if you want to

567
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 2: bet it there. I mean, I think the odds of

568
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 2: him going number five to the Bengals are maybe sixty percent,

569
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 2: maybe even a little bit higher than that. In agreement

570
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:22,159
Speaker 2: here plus one seventy five all the way down to

571
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,400
Speaker 2: plus one hundred for Jamar Chase to the Cincinnati Bengals.

572
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 2: I really do like that. Bet Sean, give me one

573
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 2: of your favorite draft prop bets for twenty twenty one.

574
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 4: So I love the price right now for Najia Harris

575
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 4: to be the first running back drafted at minus one fifty.

576
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 4: Obviously it's between him and Travis ATM. But Scott mentioned,

577
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 4: you know, Javanti Williams is a dark horse for this market,

578
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 4: but you know, I think the first team to take

579
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,959
Speaker 4: a stab at Harris could be the Steelers. And you know,

580
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 4: he kind of fits the mold of the three down back.

581
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 4: You know, Mike Tomlin loves workhorse back, so I could

582
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 4: see him going to the Steelers, and then Tampa Bay.

583
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 4: I thought they were a better fit for but after

584
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 4: the Geoe Bernard signing, I think it lowers their odds

585
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 4: a little bit for taking your running back here. So

586
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 4: I just love Harris being the first running back off

587
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,879
Speaker 4: the board. I would you know, I would expect this

588
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:13,919
Speaker 4: to be closer to minus two hundred, so I think

589
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 4: at minus one fifty it's a good price.

590
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 2: Scott, I would like I'd like your thoughts on this.

591
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 2: This one. This one scares me just a little bit

592
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:24,959
Speaker 2: because I do think that I think Harris should be favored.

593
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,119
Speaker 2: But I think it's a little bit closer to a

594
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 2: coin flip, maybe fifty percent or sixty percent that it's Harris,

595
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:35,040
Speaker 2: and then you know et In with the remainder of

596
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:37,919
Speaker 2: that in terms of just those two guys who goes first,

597
00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 2: I could see it being et in you know, maybe

598
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 2: forty to forty five percent. Oh, how do you view

599
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 2: those two running backs?

600
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 3: I think Harris should be the first, you know, first

601
00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 3: running back pick. But the issue that you run into

602
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 3: when you're trying to match up these running backs these

603
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 3: teams is what are the different teams looking for from

604
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 3: a running back as far as their scheme. You know,

605
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 3: as a team looking for that big back, do they

606
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,800
Speaker 3: maybe have you know, they're running back two on their

607
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 3: roster that is the bigger back to where they want

608
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 3: somebody that's a little bit more explosive. The one thing

609
00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 3: that I would caution with this bet when you start

610
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 3: talking about guys in the mock draft industry, it's been

611
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 3: really accurate. You know, Peter Schrager recently had ATM max

612
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 3: to nineteen to Washington football team. I think that's high.

613
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 3: I don't think he's going to go to the Washington

614
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 3: football team. But I think the actionable item that you

615
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 3: can kind of get out of this is that ATN

616
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 3: may be going higher than what a lot of people thinks,

617
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,520
Speaker 3: and some of these numbers that you're seeing at some

618
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 3: of these books may be a little off or a

619
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 3: little low on ATM. There's some good money to be

620
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 3: had on both, betting Nase Harris as the first running

621
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 3: back taken and atn as the first running back taken.

622
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 3: I think you can get good adds on both.

623
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 2: All right, Ravon, give me one of your favorite props

624
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 2: for the draft.

625
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 1: So, and it kind of goes into what Scott and

626
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 1: you talked about a few moments ago, Freeman, but I'm

627
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 1: going jamar Chase under five and a half at minus

628
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: one twenty. I know you said you would be comfortable

629
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 1: doing it around uh, you know, even money, But I'm

630
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 1: with Freeman. I think these odds are about sixty to

631
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 1: sixty six percent, you know about you know, two out

632
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 1: of every three times. I think it happens somewhere around there.

633
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 1: So I like Chase tit the Bengals at number five.

634
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 2: I think that's where he goes.

635
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 1: But I'm also not you know, for sure what happens

636
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 1: at number four, the Falcons and what they're thinking. I

637
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 1: think it's probably pits, but I think there I wouldn't

638
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 1: be surprised to see, you know, them take Chase even

639
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 1: at number four, So like it's not out of the

640
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 1: normal possibility for me. So I really like Chase at

641
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,160
Speaker 1: under five and a half. I know, you know, he's

642
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: just been graded so high. We he's really kind of

643
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 1: separated himself in terms of these mocks and where he's going,

644
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: and he's like the unquestioned number one wide receiver now

645
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 1: in the draft. So really like Jamar Chase under five

646
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: and a half at minus one twenty and I would

647
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: do it up to minus one forty five because I

648
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,120
Speaker 1: do think around sixty percent is more soda floor.

649
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 2: Rabun to your point about we don't really know what

650
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 2: the Falcons are going to do at number four, so

651
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 2: there's the possibility there. I mean, if they went with Chase,

652
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 2: that would be a I think a fantastic move in

653
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 2: terms of it would be similar to what the Cowboys

654
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 2: did last year with adding CD Lamb and it would

655
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 2: be like, oh, man, like this team has the best

656
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 2: trio of wide receivers in the league instantly if you

657
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 2: add Jamar Chase. So it would be exciting to see

658
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,120
Speaker 2: that happening. The thing is, I'm going against you. I

659
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 2: think it's Kyle Pitts. That's one of my favorite bets.

660
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,120
Speaker 2: Kyle Pitts to the Falcons plus one sixty at bet MGM.

661
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 2: And even if they go with Pitts instead of Jamar Chase.

662
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 2: I still think at this point they have the best

663
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 2: group of pass catchers. I think there's a greater than

664
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:47,960
Speaker 2: fifty percent chance that it is Pits. It's becoming increasingly

665
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 2: clear that they won't go with a quarterback in the future.

666
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 2: At number four. It looks like it will also be

667
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,479
Speaker 2: harder for them to trade down because they've sort of

668
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 2: deleveraged themselves by basically admitting that they're not going to

669
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 2: take a quarterback. So why would a team trade down

670
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 2: to number four when they could trade to maybe number

671
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 2: six or number seven and they don't have to give

672
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 2: as much in the draft to do that trade. So

673
00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 2: you look on the defensive side of the ball, they

674
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 2: don't need an offensive lineman. But you know, Pitts is

675
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 2: a unicorn prospect with his athletic profile and his college production.

676
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 2: He fits their offense and he allows them to be

677
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 2: multiple because he's a tight end, but he basically has

678
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 2: wide receiver skills and so he has that ability to

679
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 2: really open up what they do offensively in Arthur Smith's system.

680
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 2: So to get Pitts to the Falcons at plus money,

681
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 2: I think it's fantastic value, easily one of my favorite

682
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 2: bets on the board. Right now.

683
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:43,480
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Speaker 5: in the data. Thanks for listening. Now back to the show.

712
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 2: Okay, we've gone through five, four, three and two. We're

713
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 2: now at our favorite props for the NFL Draft. Scott,

714
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 2: give it to me. What is your best bet for

715
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 2: the twenty twenty one NFL Draft.

716
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 3: Look, I'm swinging big for the fences here and I'm

717
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 3: going specifically with a player to a certain team, and

718
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,879
Speaker 3: that's going to be Patrick Certain to Carolina at pick

719
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 3: number eight for plus eleven hundred at MGM. When we're

720
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 3: looking for returns, I want a big return when I

721
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 3: break this down this pick. Logically, you know a lot

722
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 3: of these scouts, what you're going to hear is that

723
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,320
Speaker 3: Patrick certain is the best defensive player in this draft.

724
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 3: There's a lot of a lot of action, a lot

725
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 3: of money going on Certain it's the first defensive player

726
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:49,760
Speaker 3: off the board. And when you start looking at teams

727
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 3: that could go ahead and take Certain after you get

728
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 3: past all these quarterbacks and pits and the wide receiver,

729
00:34:55,360 --> 00:34:57,799
Speaker 3: and I think you can look squarely at pick eight

730
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 3: at Carolina. You know they've got Dante Jackson, who is

731
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 3: not a number one cornerback. He's more of a number

732
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,840
Speaker 3: two guy. You know, they did try to adjust address

733
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 3: the secondary with aj Bouye, and it's Dante Jackson and

734
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:14,720
Speaker 3: a bunch of scrubs. So when I'm breaking down their roster,

735
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 3: I think, really, Caroline is looking at two people. I

736
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 3: think it's either going to be Rayshawn Slater, provided that

737
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 3: Pinasal doesn't have a major drop, or it's going to

738
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 3: be Patrick's curtain one of these two guys. And to

739
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:28,520
Speaker 3: go ahead and drop a few bucks down on a

740
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 3: plus eleven hundred odds, I think it's just got, you know,

741
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,800
Speaker 3: the high reward to go ahead and drop and sprinkle

742
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 3: some money down and drop a few units on it,

743
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:39,920
Speaker 3: and look if it's hits. With what I'm looking at

744
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:42,359
Speaker 3: and how I'm projecting my mock drafts, it's not out

745
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:44,280
Speaker 3: of the question for it to either be Patrick's certain

746
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,439
Speaker 3: or Rayshawn Slater. And at plus eleven hundred, I'm more

747
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 3: than willing to take that chance.

748
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 2: All right, love it, Sean, give me your best prop

749
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:55,920
Speaker 2: bet for the twenty twenty one NFL Draft.

750
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:57,839
Speaker 4: So you know, earlier in the pod, I went with

751
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 4: some long shots. This one, I'm going something pretty chalky

752
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 4: total wide receivers drafting the first round over four and

753
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 4: a half at minus three hundred. Like you, guys say,

754
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:09,720
Speaker 4: I bet this to any juice. You know, obviously Chase Wattle,

755
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 4: Smith or locks for the first round. I think Rashaw

756
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 4: Bateman seems likely. And then you have guys like we

757
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 4: mentioned earlier, like a Clarious Tony, Terrence Marshall, Elijah or

758
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 4: even ron Dale Moore could sneak into the first round.

759
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,840
Speaker 4: I think teams like the Bears, Titans, Saints, Bucks, Packers,

760
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:28,319
Speaker 4: or Ravens could target one of them. And I think

761
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 4: with the Ravens trading up to get two first round picks.

762
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 4: I think it makes it even more likely that they're

763
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 4: going to draft at least one wide receiver. So I

764
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 4: love this. I think, you know, we're probably gonna see

765
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 4: five receivers, but I wouldn't be shocked to see six.

766
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 4: So you know, like I said, i'd probably bet this

767
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 4: up to minus five hundred. I think it's that much

768
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:45,600
Speaker 4: of a lock.

769
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 2: Sean, I don't know if I would say betting up

770
00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:53,839
Speaker 2: to five hundred, but I'm imagining when I update my

771
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 2: mock draft, I'm still gonna have five wide receivers and

772
00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 2: it I mean, I think it's likelier than not that

773
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 2: that is what we see. Scott, where are you on

774
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 2: the number of wide receivers we see going in Round one?

775
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm kind of locked in right there at five.

776
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:09,960
Speaker 3: I have some personal preferences as far as like the

777
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 3: type of wide receiver. I think it's valuable, you know,

778
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 3: at that at that measure in the first round. Look,

779
00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 3: you've got a lot of outs. You've got Elijah Moore,

780
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 3: You've got Kadarius Tony. I think we talked about the

781
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:25,319
Speaker 3: top four guys. You know, Marshall's been getting a little

782
00:37:25,360 --> 00:37:28,759
Speaker 3: bit of a blowback from some medical and injury concerns,

783
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 3: but I think more likely than not, you're gonna see

784
00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:35,720
Speaker 3: that extra wide receiver to sneak in, especially since Baltimore

785
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 3: went ahead. I think when you had Kansas City there,

786
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 3: you were going to be projecting more of offensive linemen,

787
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:43,320
Speaker 3: probably one of the tackles there. But since they traded

788
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:46,560
Speaker 3: for tackle and just looking at Baltimore and what their

789
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 3: needs are, they really need another wide receiver kind of

790
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 3: in that alpha middle to go ahead and loosen up

791
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 3: that offense and give them a little bit more you know,

792
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:58,839
Speaker 3: passing volume there in the air. So I like, uh,

793
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 3: I like, I like five for sure, and you know,

794
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 3: I'm gonna kind of kind of get things down and

795
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 3: start narrowing the back end of that draft in. But

796
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 3: I think a six wide receiver could sneak in there

797
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:12,839
Speaker 3: in the first round.

798
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,320
Speaker 2: Oh six. I mean, you can see how it happens.

799
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 2: As you said, there are a number of outs, a

800
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 2: number of guys who could get there, and enough teams,

801
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 2: especially in the second half of the first round, who

802
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 2: could address the position. They certainly have needs there, right Raybaughon,

803
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 2: give me your best bet for the NFL Draft.

804
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:33,359
Speaker 1: So this is one where I think it started out,

805
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:37,319
Speaker 1: there was some uncertainty and then it's kind of, I think,

806
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 1: become more clear. And I think the market is still

807
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:43,439
Speaker 1: because it's kind of a high profile pick and it's

808
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,799
Speaker 1: one of the biggest stories of the draft. You know,

809
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 1: you're you're still getting good odds compared to what it

810
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 1: should be. I think this should be closer to minus

811
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 1: three hundred.

812
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 4: But MATC.

813
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 1: Jones to the with the for the number three pick

814
00:38:56,080 --> 00:39:00,240
Speaker 1: at minus one eighty five, I think he's going nonumber

815
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 1: three to the forty nine ers. I think Zach Wilson

816
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 1: to the Jets at number two is going to happen,

817
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 1: and obviously Lawrence number one. But you look at Jones

818
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 1: and you know the alternatives, and you know, at one

819
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:13,759
Speaker 1: point you know justin Steels, Trey Lance, both of those

820
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:15,360
Speaker 1: guys that are in the conversation.

821
00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 2: But you look at what Kyle.

822
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 1: Shanahan kind of wants, and you know, look at them

823
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 1: trading up. And the thing that separates Jones, I think

824
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 1: is just his mental ability at quarterback. He was you know,

825
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 1: if you compare him to the guy like Fields, you know,

826
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 1: he threw his time to throw is about almost a

827
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 1: fifty seconds, like faster. His pressure to sacrate was half

828
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:42,839
Speaker 1: of what Fields was, and Jones was the number three

829
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 1: quarterback in terms of passer rating under pressure, whereas Fields

830
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 1: was outside the top fiftieth percentile. And I really think

831
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 1: that's going to be important for the forty nine ers.

832
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:54,279
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of reports saying, you know, this

833
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:56,719
Speaker 1: is pretty much a done deals. There will be a

834
00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 1: lot of surprise if they didn't go with Jones, even

835
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,120
Speaker 1: though they have entertaining. You know, they've done their due diligence.

836
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 1: So I think these ads would be again, should be

837
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:06,879
Speaker 1: closer to minus three hundred. I think about seventy five

838
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:10,200
Speaker 1: percent chance that Jones goes at number three. So I

839
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 1: like it at one eighty five minus one eighty five.

840
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 2: Scott, I'd love your thoughts on this because everything that

841
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:22,360
Speaker 2: I look at points towards Mac Jones. I understand why

842
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:24,879
Speaker 2: some people would be really hesitant about it. You know,

843
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 2: justin Fields, he's the sexier player, you know, Trey Lance.

844
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 2: I mean, he's got upside to the moon. You know,

845
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 2: Mac Jones looks a little bit more like a finished product,

846
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:36,799
Speaker 2: and so maybe he just doesn't seem like the kind

847
00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:41,000
Speaker 2: of player who's worth trading two for future first rounders

848
00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:43,399
Speaker 2: for and a third rounder to move up to number

849
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 2: three to take him. But I mean, you know, Schefter

850
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,279
Speaker 2: is on it, Daniel Jeremiah is on it, melkaiper Junior

851
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:51,759
Speaker 2: is on it. Like the sharp mock Rafter, Yeah, the

852
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 2: sharp mocks. They are pretty strongly pointing towards Jones instead

853
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 2: of fields or Lance. Where are you on this?

854
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm My first few mock drafts that I put

855
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 3: out at that at the Action Network all had fields

856
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 3: kind of in that position, and we look at it

857
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 3: as armchair scouts and sit there and it's easy for

858
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:15,680
Speaker 3: us to go ahead and try to break down traits

859
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 3: and say, oh, field is more athletic, he's got the

860
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:20,879
Speaker 3: better arm, he's got this. But when it comes down

861
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 3: to it and you start looking at at at Shanahan,

862
00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 3: I think he's going to know more than anybody what

863
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 3: traits it is that he's looking for. And one of

864
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 3: the things that we can't sit here and grade and

865
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 3: we don't know is the mental capacity that some of

866
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,279
Speaker 3: these players have as far as making decisions and quick.

867
00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 3: I mean, we think we know, but until we're not

868
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 3: getting these players in there on a dry erase board

869
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:42,799
Speaker 3: and running through plays with them and stuff like that.

870
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 3: So it's hard for us to sit there and say,

871
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:47,960
Speaker 3: I think, really when this, when this comes down to it,

872
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 3: the one person that I look at with this is

873
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:54,319
Speaker 3: Adam Schefter, And if Adam Schefter is reporting it, I

874
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:57,360
Speaker 3: can promise you his whole career is based off of

875
00:41:57,440 --> 00:42:00,360
Speaker 3: relationships that he has with you know, with the that

876
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:04,360
Speaker 3: leak out this information. And when he reports something, you know,

877
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 3: it's it's eighty to ninety percent that it's going to happen.

878
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 3: And when you just have as many people within the

879
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:15,320
Speaker 3: industry that have inside information and connections and leaks and

880
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:18,240
Speaker 3: you know all of that, it's hard to go ahead

881
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 3: and bet against that. And this has become such a

882
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:25,359
Speaker 3: huge topic of this draft. It's pretty much the make

883
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 3: or break position of this draft. Guys that do mock drafts,

884
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 3: their mock drafts are going to fall apart getting this

885
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 3: pick wrong because the dominoes that fall after this are

886
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 3: going to really like decide how accurate you are. And

887
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 3: I just don't think that a guy like Adam Schefter

888
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:43,800
Speaker 3: and whoever his his report, whoever he gets his information from,

889
00:42:44,000 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 3: are going to burn him over as big of a

890
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 3: topic as this, So for me, I think you pay

891
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 3: attention to the talking heads that have the you know,

892
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 3: the big media stations that have the inside connections to

893
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 3: give you the information, and you pay attention to this

894
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:00,319
Speaker 3: over the next two or three days, and you may

895
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 3: this may be one of the lines that you see moved.

896
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 3: So I like getting in on a mac Jones action now.

897
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:08,840
Speaker 3: I mean, throughout this process, you've had time to go

898
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 3: ahead and hedge bets and get in on all three

899
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 3: of Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones to the

900
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 3: forty nine ers. But if you're putting me on the

901
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:18,760
Speaker 3: spot asking me who I'm gonna have in my final

902
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 3: mock draft as of right now, it's going to be

903
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:22,240
Speaker 3: Mac Jones to the forty nine ers.

904
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:26,799
Speaker 2: Yeah. If I didn't have positions established already and I

905
00:43:26,840 --> 00:43:29,440
Speaker 2: were coming in just today to the market and I

906
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 2: had to bet, I would be betting on Mac Jones.

907
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:35,480
Speaker 2: And the one thing that gives me just a little

908
00:43:35,520 --> 00:43:39,359
Speaker 2: hesitation here is the idea that if Jones doesn't go

909
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 2: number three, he could fall pretty far down the board. Potentially.

910
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 2: It seems like the forty nine ers view him in

911
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 2: a way that really no other team or few teams

912
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 2: view him. Uh and so that makes me just a

913
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:56,960
Speaker 2: little bit wary. But because of all of the mocks

914
00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:00,040
Speaker 2: and because of the as you said, Scott like the

915
00:44:00,120 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 2: big talking heads at the big networks, because they are

916
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:06,480
Speaker 2: really staking their reputations and they have the established sources,

917
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:09,799
Speaker 2: They're staking their reputations on the idea of Jones going

918
00:44:09,880 --> 00:44:12,360
Speaker 2: number three because that is what they're reporting as what

919
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 2: was likely to happen. That is where I'm leaning here,

920
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:19,239
Speaker 2: So Raybon, I'm with you. Jones number three to the

921
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:22,120
Speaker 2: forty nine ers at minus one eighty five. I do

922
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:24,200
Speaker 2: think there's value there in Scott. To your point, I

923
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:26,720
Speaker 2: do think that line will continue to move the closer

924
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 2: we get to draft day.

925
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 1: So to be clear, yeah, that's why I'm taking him

926
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:33,799
Speaker 1: at number three, Like there's props you could get for

927
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 1: him to go under three and a half. Now those

928
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 1: what i'm seeing at VENMGM. It's already juiced up to

929
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:42,280
Speaker 1: minus too fifty. So I think the value is specifically

930
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 1: taking him to go with that third pick because you

931
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:46,640
Speaker 1: look at Lawrence and you look at Wilson, and the

932
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 1: odds are pretty astronomical that they're going to you know,

933
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 1: they're going top two and then the forty nine is

934
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 1: traded up right, And so that's what kind.

935
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 2: Of like I do agree.

936
00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:58,120
Speaker 1: You know, if things slip up, if you're betting like

937
00:44:58,200 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 1: just the under something the forty nine were there, then

938
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 1: the outcome, the range.

939
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 2: Of outcomes widened.

940
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:07,919
Speaker 1: But it's to bet on Schefter and all these other

941
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 1: guys that do this for a living, on them being right.

942
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 2: And again I just think it makes it.

943
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:14,799
Speaker 1: I mean, you look back at Kyle Shanahan and what

944
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 1: he's what he's had success with, what he's done, what

945
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 1: the moves he's made. They created for Jimmy Garoppolo, he's

946
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 1: not an athletic guy, but he's a guy who what

947
00:45:22,719 --> 00:45:25,120
Speaker 1: is what does he have mental ability? In that Patriot

948
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 1: system for a number of years sitting down, they bet

949
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 1: on his talent, they bet on his potential. Essentially, even

950
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:33,360
Speaker 1: when they take Robert Griffin when he was a coordinator

951
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 1: with the with Washington, what did they go behind and

952
00:45:36,080 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 1: do when no one thought they needed it. They also

953
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 1: took a more traditional passer and Kirk Cousins and who

954
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 1: ended up you know, playing a lot under Shannahan. Even

955
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 1: there Cousins, who is the quarterback that he went to

956
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:50,359
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl with and almost Won, Matt Ryan and

957
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 1: another guy that you would you know, you look at

958
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 1: the skillst it's more comparable to Jones than it is

959
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:58,399
Speaker 1: to Fields or Lance. Even though I agree that those

960
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 1: guys are sexy. I think Lance is a bit more

961
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:02,239
Speaker 1: of a prospect. I think it should come down to

962
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:04,600
Speaker 1: Fields versus Jont, like if I was in that position.

963
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 1: But I think it's pretty clear, especially looking at some

964
00:46:07,200 --> 00:46:09,680
Speaker 1: of the advanced metrics on you know that would indicate

965
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:13,400
Speaker 1: their mental ability and processing speed and things like that.

966
00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 1: That's what really kind of leads me Tord Jones, and

967
00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:17,920
Speaker 1: I think that's why it, like because it's such a

968
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,879
Speaker 1: big topic and because you're getting that actual number three

969
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:23,400
Speaker 1: pick and they traded there. I think that's what's creating

970
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 1: the value because I think a lot of people have

971
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 1: an opinion on this, and so there are there is

972
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:28,960
Speaker 1: going to be money still coming in on like under

973
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:30,839
Speaker 1: you know three and a half or or pick number

974
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 1: three for Fields or Lance because people have a wirrange

975
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 1: of opinions. So that's where I think the value comes from.

976
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 2: All right, rabon with you there on Jones to the

977
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:43,480
Speaker 2: forty nine ers at number three my favorite bet for

978
00:46:43,600 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 2: the NFL Draft and this one is pretty random. The

979
00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:50,720
Speaker 2: Washington football team to draft defense with the first pick,

980
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 2: and you can get this at bet MGM at plus

981
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 2: two to ten. I think this should be plus one hundred,

982
00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 2: maybe minus one twenty. Washington could go with a tackle

983
00:46:59,880 --> 00:47:02,319
Speaker 2: or wide receiver, but this class is deep at both

984
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 2: of those positions, and so you could easily see them

985
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:10,040
Speaker 2: addressing those positions on Day two. Washington also needs, really

986
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:12,880
Speaker 2: needs an off ball linebacker, and in the middle of

987
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 2: round one they are perfectly placed to address that position.

988
00:47:17,160 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 2: They are like three guys who all fit that range

989
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 2: at off ball linebacker, who easily could go there, and

990
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:28,120
Speaker 2: so that's a spot. I really like it over half

991
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 2: the mockx I've seen they go with a linebacker. So

992
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:34,440
Speaker 2: I lean defense here for Washington at pick nineteen, that

993
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 2: side of the ball at plus two ten, I think

994
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:40,959
Speaker 2: that offers the best combination of plus money and real

995
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 2: odds of actually hitting on the prop. So that is

996
00:47:45,200 --> 00:47:48,840
Speaker 2: why right now, that is my favorite bet of the

997
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 2: twenty twenty one NFL Draft. Right that's going to do it.

998
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:56,800
Speaker 2: For NFL Draft betting preview. You can follow Sean, Chris

999
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 2: and Me in the Action Network app at the underscore

1000
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 2: odds maker Chris Raybond and Matt f the Oracle. You

1001
00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 2: can track your NFL Draft prop bets in the app

1002
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 2: for free, so be sure to do that and follow

1003
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 2: Scott on Twitter at Scott smith FF. Be sure to

1004
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:14,360
Speaker 2: check out his most recent up to the minute mock draft,

1005
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 2: as well as the rest of our draft content at

1006
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 2: Action Network. As a reminder, we have our PGA Tour

1007
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:22,880
Speaker 2: betting preview on Tuesday and the NBA Buffet on Wednesday,

1008
00:48:23,160 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 2: plus a bonus Kentucky Derby betting preview this Friday. Thanks

1009
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:30,479
Speaker 2: to bet MGM, the official odds provider of the show,

1010
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 2: and thank you for listening. Please rate and review the

1011
00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:35,880
Speaker 2: show on Apple Podcasts, download and listen on Spotify, and

1012
00:48:35,960 --> 00:48:49,280
Speaker 2: we will see you next time on the Action Network podcast.

1013
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 5: We're finished talking