WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Rebecca Patterson

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The single best idea

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<v Speaker 1>which is to avoid this historic storm, Rob Carroll, and

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<v Speaker 1>it was fabulous today. He made very clear that the

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<v Speaker 1>elements of the storm, the foundations of the storm, are

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<v Speaker 1>all the way across the nation to Catalina Island in

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<v Speaker 1>Los Angeles. I was stunned by that. But that's why

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<v Speaker 1>you know he's so famous. Is the linkages here of

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<v Speaker 1>how you get a polar vortex, or how the winds

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<v Speaker 1>affect Abilene, Texas, and on and on. We thank Rob

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<v Speaker 1>Carroll and for terrific coverage. You'll do much more here

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<v Speaker 1>in the coming days as the storm evolves over six, seven,

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<v Speaker 1>eight days, and then even after that some historic cold

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<v Speaker 1>is well. Rebecca Patterson showed up with the counts on

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<v Speaker 1>foreign relations her recent essay in the Financial Times, the

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<v Speaker 1>senior Fellow from CFR, Rebecca Patterson on the dollar at

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<v Speaker 1>this moment.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the important thing about the dollar is timeframe

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<v Speaker 2>and degree. You know, a lot of the media coverage

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<v Speaker 2>this week with the threats of possible military intervention to

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<v Speaker 2>acquire Greenland against its will and then the backing off it.

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<v Speaker 2>You saw some market reaction, but it was really just

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<v Speaker 2>a one day sell America and everyone saying, well, gosh,

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<v Speaker 2>no one sold treasuries. Everything's fine, it's all hype like, No,

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<v Speaker 2>it's not. It's time frame. What we're seeing is a

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<v Speaker 2>slow erosion of confidence in dollar based assets. This is

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<v Speaker 2>something that will play out over years, not a day

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<v Speaker 2>or a week or a month. But it's happening.

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<v Speaker 1>Just brilliant, and I want to frame there is. Rebecca

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<v Speaker 1>Patterson correctly said the lot of the reporting was treasures

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<v Speaker 1>didn't do much and the answers they did. A question

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<v Speaker 1>is where in the curve short term market was very stable.

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<v Speaker 1>That's q FED influence the economic data that Michael McKee's

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<v Speaker 1>so good at. But farther out there was some movement

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<v Speaker 1>in the thirty year bond. Some people would say it

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<v Speaker 1>used to be the benchmark thirty year bond yield up,

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<v Speaker 1>price down, began to approach five percent. Now it's turned

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<v Speaker 1>around from that to a four point eighty six I'm

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<v Speaker 1>guessing at right now. But out in the curve, even

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<v Speaker 1>you know Japan, that's true, but even in the US,

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<v Speaker 1>out in the curve, you can watch there as almost

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<v Speaker 1>a litmus paper of what the bond vigilantes are thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about Rebecca Patterson is thinking about tariffs. Martha Gimble just

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<v Speaker 1>phenomenal at the Budget lab at yelled lots of good

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<v Speaker 1>work on tariffs recently. What would be the shock from

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<v Speaker 1>the Supreme Court the outcome for your favorite tariff.

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<v Speaker 2>I always look at the intersection of geopolitics, the economy,

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<v Speaker 2>and financial markets because they all influence each other. One

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<v Speaker 2>of the things I'm looking at now ahead of the

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<v Speaker 2>Supreme Court decision about US tariffs is if we reduce

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<v Speaker 2>the tariffs, take them off, shift them around, how does

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<v Speaker 2>that translate into the affordability narrative in the United States?

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<v Speaker 2>If tariffs are removed, do we actually see any price

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<v Speaker 2>change that benefits you as consumers? How does that play

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<v Speaker 2>out in the midterm election. So again, as looking at

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<v Speaker 2>all these connections.

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<v Speaker 1>Rebecca Patterson, I really want to say some of that's

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<v Speaker 1>the so called think tanks that I lean on every day.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, all of us are reading them voraciously here

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg. But I really want to do a shout

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<v Speaker 1>at Adam Posen and the Peterson Institute just on fire

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<v Speaker 1>at recently David Wessel writing up a storm at the

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<v Speaker 1>Brookings Institute as well. In Rebecca Patterson providing leadership at

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<v Speaker 1>the Council on Foreign Relations. Mister Frohman and company have

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<v Speaker 1>just done an outstanding job staggering from story to story

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<v Speaker 1>in our international relations. And again look to Bloomberg Opinion

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<v Speaker 1>Lionel Laurent. I'll get that out on Twitter and LinkedIn.

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<v Speaker 1>Laurent particularly good off the Paris desk today, on all

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<v Speaker 1>that's going on on podcasts on Apple, on Spotify, and

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<v Speaker 1>on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea