1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:14,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The single best idea 2 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: which is to avoid this historic storm, Rob Carroll, and 3 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 1: it was fabulous today. He made very clear that the 4 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:26,279 Speaker 1: elements of the storm, the foundations of the storm, are 5 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 1: all the way across the nation to Catalina Island in 6 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:32,560 Speaker 1: Los Angeles. I was stunned by that. But that's why 7 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:35,879 Speaker 1: you know he's so famous. Is the linkages here of 8 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:39,160 Speaker 1: how you get a polar vortex, or how the winds 9 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:42,840 Speaker 1: affect Abilene, Texas, and on and on. We thank Rob 10 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:45,520 Speaker 1: Carroll and for terrific coverage. You'll do much more here 11 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:49,320 Speaker 1: in the coming days as the storm evolves over six, seven, 12 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:52,520 Speaker 1: eight days, and then even after that some historic cold 13 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:55,800 Speaker 1: is well. Rebecca Patterson showed up with the counts on 14 00:00:55,880 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: foreign relations her recent essay in the Financial Times, the 15 00:01:00,880 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 1: senior Fellow from CFR, Rebecca Patterson on the dollar at 16 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 1: this moment. 17 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 2: I think the important thing about the dollar is timeframe 18 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 2: and degree. You know, a lot of the media coverage 19 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 2: this week with the threats of possible military intervention to 20 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 2: acquire Greenland against its will and then the backing off it. 21 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:24,039 Speaker 2: You saw some market reaction, but it was really just 22 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 2: a one day sell America and everyone saying, well, gosh, 23 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:30,759 Speaker 2: no one sold treasuries. Everything's fine, it's all hype like, No, 24 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,959 Speaker 2: it's not. It's time frame. What we're seeing is a 25 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:38,399 Speaker 2: slow erosion of confidence in dollar based assets. This is 26 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:40,600 Speaker 2: something that will play out over years, not a day 27 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 2: or a week or a month. But it's happening. 28 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:46,760 Speaker 1: Just brilliant, and I want to frame there is. Rebecca 29 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: Patterson correctly said the lot of the reporting was treasures 30 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: didn't do much and the answers they did. A question 31 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 1: is where in the curve short term market was very stable. 32 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 1: That's q FED influence the economic data that Michael McKee's 33 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 1: so good at. But farther out there was some movement 34 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: in the thirty year bond. Some people would say it 35 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 1: used to be the benchmark thirty year bond yield up, 36 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 1: price down, began to approach five percent. Now it's turned 37 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: around from that to a four point eighty six I'm 38 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 1: guessing at right now. But out in the curve, even 39 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 1: you know Japan, that's true, but even in the US, 40 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 1: out in the curve, you can watch there as almost 41 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 1: a litmus paper of what the bond vigilantes are thinking 42 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 1: about Rebecca Patterson is thinking about tariffs. Martha Gimble just 43 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 1: phenomenal at the Budget lab at yelled lots of good 44 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: work on tariffs recently. What would be the shock from 45 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court the outcome for your favorite tariff. 46 00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 2: I always look at the intersection of geopolitics, the economy, 47 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 2: and financial markets because they all influence each other. One 48 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 2: of the things I'm looking at now ahead of the 49 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 2: Supreme Court decision about US tariffs is if we reduce 50 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 2: the tariffs, take them off, shift them around, how does 51 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:05,360 Speaker 2: that translate into the affordability narrative in the United States? 52 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 2: If tariffs are removed, do we actually see any price 53 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 2: change that benefits you as consumers? How does that play 54 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 2: out in the midterm election. So again, as looking at 55 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 2: all these connections. 56 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: Rebecca Patterson, I really want to say some of that's 57 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 1: the so called think tanks that I lean on every day. 58 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: I mean, all of us are reading them voraciously here 59 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:26,160 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg. But I really want to do a shout 60 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 1: at Adam Posen and the Peterson Institute just on fire 61 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 1: at recently David Wessel writing up a storm at the 62 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:37,120 Speaker 1: Brookings Institute as well. In Rebecca Patterson providing leadership at 63 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:40,800 Speaker 1: the Council on Foreign Relations. Mister Frohman and company have 64 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 1: just done an outstanding job staggering from story to story 65 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 1: in our international relations. And again look to Bloomberg Opinion 66 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 1: Lionel Laurent. I'll get that out on Twitter and LinkedIn. 67 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 1: Laurent particularly good off the Paris desk today, on all 68 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 1: that's going on on podcasts on Apple, on Spotify, and 69 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea