WEBVTT - BlackRock Global Fixed Income CIO Rick Rieder Talks Equities

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>We begin this hour with stock sitting of record highs

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<v Speaker 2>as investors are potential us around Truce Rick, reader of

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<v Speaker 2>black Rock righting the immense disruption of trade and global

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<v Speaker 2>supply conditions will be what truly influences market price. Sick

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<v Speaker 2>Rick joins us now for more. Rick, Welcome to the program, buddy.

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<v Speaker 2>Always a privilege, a pleasure to catch up with you, sir.

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<v Speaker 2>This move that we've seen in this equity market, we've

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<v Speaker 2>thrown so much of the stock market over the last

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<v Speaker 2>several months AI disruption, private market, jitters and now the

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<v Speaker 2>straight and form most remaining closed for almost two months now, Rick,

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<v Speaker 2>and here we are at all time highs. Does that

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<v Speaker 2>bring you comfort or make you nervous?

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<v Speaker 1>Good question, So i'd I'd say a couple of things.

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<v Speaker 1>First of all, I think what it tells you is

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<v Speaker 1>the technicals in the equity market are extraordinary, and the

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<v Speaker 1>earning numbers that are coming through are pretty powerful. And

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, if you look at the US economy

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<v Speaker 1>and you look at what's you know, I heard to

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<v Speaker 1>begin the show time about the economies weak countmies is strong.

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<v Speaker 1>Actually the parts of the economy and the primary drivers

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<v Speaker 1>are doing quite well.

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<v Speaker 3>You look at tech.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you look at some of the numbers yesterday

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<v Speaker 1>that you cited, and you look at these earnings growth

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<v Speaker 1>and I was looking at some of the semies. You

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<v Speaker 1>took about ninety seven percent earnings.

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<v Speaker 3>Growth year on here.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, like unbelievably powerful numbers. And then you look

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<v Speaker 1>at you know, the high end consumer, that consumption. You

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<v Speaker 1>look at retail sales when you break it down, pretty

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<v Speaker 1>darn good. So you've got an economy and by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>you've got housing's not in good shape, lower income's not

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<v Speaker 1>in good shape.

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<v Speaker 3>So that is is what it is.

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<v Speaker 1>But what drives the equity market is in pretty good shape.

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<v Speaker 1>And the technical So you had this period of time

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<v Speaker 1>that nobody wanted to buy stocks, and then you realize,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I've said it before. You you know you're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna have an IPO calendar this year that maybe's a

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<v Speaker 1>couple hundred billion, Maybe we're gonna buy back a trillion

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<v Speaker 1>of stock this year, so we're actually there's not enough

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<v Speaker 1>stock to buy. So it's just a pretty you talk

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<v Speaker 1>about how explosive this is, you realize people sit on

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<v Speaker 1>their hands. I don't want to do anything, particularly in tech,

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<v Speaker 1>and then all of a sudden, you know, maybe a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit of better news, the earnings come in, and

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<v Speaker 1>then you create this the technicals and equities, by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a completely different And when you think about the treasury market,

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<v Speaker 1>et cetera, because we're getting do we get five hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty billion a week of supply, it's I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it's amazing. In the equity market, how good the technicals are.

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<v Speaker 4>Rick, is there a contradiction in the fact that we're

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<v Speaker 4>seeing such explosive confidence in equities.

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<v Speaker 3>You're seeing so much cash.

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<v Speaker 4>Out there that are looking for places to go, and

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<v Speaker 4>at the same time, people are expecting inflation to come

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<v Speaker 4>back down to two percent over the next five to

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<v Speaker 4>ten years. Does that seem contradictory?

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<v Speaker 1>No, man, listen, I think, I think, and I've been

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<v Speaker 1>doing this for many, many, few decades. I've never seen

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<v Speaker 1>a productivity revolution like this before. I mean, so you

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<v Speaker 1>go through I mean almost every company I look at,

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<v Speaker 1>you see a similar dynamic and grow my top line revenue.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's say it's four to ten percent. Obviously techts significantly

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<v Speaker 1>more significant that.

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<v Speaker 3>But then if I.

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<v Speaker 1>Keep my labor static to down. And then if I

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<v Speaker 1>can get my costs of good soul and you see

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<v Speaker 1>this in M and I, if I can create synergies,

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<v Speaker 1>I can run a higher operating margin. If you could

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<v Speaker 1>run a higher operating margin, then my roees is significantly higher.

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<v Speaker 1>And so then it just keeps driving this dynamic. So

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<v Speaker 1>thinking about what And by the way, we haven't really

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<v Speaker 1>seen automation AI really kick in yet, so I think

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<v Speaker 1>you know, there's this transmission. Part of why I think

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<v Speaker 1>big cap stocks are so powerful is you're building a

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<v Speaker 1>mode because you utilize data so effectively. We're seeing productivity

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<v Speaker 1>take place in Buoye's earnings.

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<v Speaker 3>Companies do great.

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<v Speaker 1>By the way, the counter of that, it's not great

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<v Speaker 1>from an employee point of view. You're seeing that playout,

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<v Speaker 1>which you know is part of what you know what

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<v Speaker 1>affects the interest rate transmission. So it's a really good

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<v Speaker 1>story from a productivity and a corporate earnings point of view,

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<v Speaker 1>not so much for the.

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<v Speaker 3>Broad world population.

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<v Speaker 4>So Raquel bullish are you right now? It sounds like

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<v Speaker 4>you're incredibly bullish on big claps. I mean, are you

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<v Speaker 4>essentially going all in? Do you think it is a

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<v Speaker 4>time to go into equities over bonds, to go into

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<v Speaker 4>equities over cash, to go into equities over commodities.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm not that bullish, but I listen. I think, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>we are long the equity market. You know. One of

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<v Speaker 3>the things that happens when you know you had what

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<v Speaker 3>happened a.

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<v Speaker 1>Few weeks ago, when volatility spikes, you can't really it's

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<v Speaker 1>hard to have a very long equity position because you

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<v Speaker 1>can't manage your risk using the volatility markets. Now vall

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<v Speaker 1>has come down, it allows you to run a bit

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<v Speaker 1>longer equity disposition.

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<v Speaker 3>And so, yeah, I like equities.

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<v Speaker 1>If you said to me, let's look at the credit markets,

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<v Speaker 1>he say, gosh, where is high yield?

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<v Speaker 3>Where's investment grade credit?

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<v Speaker 1>And I say, okay, I've got some beta that I

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<v Speaker 1>could put in a portfolio. Look at where spreads are.

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<v Speaker 1>Investment grade credit not interesting. High yield you know it

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<v Speaker 1>carries well, spreads are not that interesting. So I said, gosh,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to take my beta and orient it a

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<v Speaker 1>bit more towards the equity market, or more towards the

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<v Speaker 1>equity market where the earnings growth is explosive. I got

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<v Speaker 1>convexity of the upside, and I can manage the risk

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<v Speaker 1>that's a better in a portfolio construct. That's a better

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<v Speaker 1>disposition than I think than you know, parts of the

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<v Speaker 1>credit market are today.

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<v Speaker 4>K How do you think the Federal Reserve is thinking

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<v Speaker 4>about all of this, especially given the fact that we

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<v Speaker 4>are seeing higher energy costs in the United States's not

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<v Speaker 4>as high as Asian Europe, but they are.

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<v Speaker 3>Still taking higher.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I'll tell you there's a pretty extraordinary point

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<v Speaker 1>in time. And you know part of what I'm talking

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<v Speaker 1>about productivity and the employment dynamic. Listen, I think the

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<v Speaker 1>Fed you will be on hold and watch the data

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<v Speaker 1>and you'll see it by the way you're going to

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<v Speaker 1>see and we are seeing some what will be some

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<v Speaker 1>particularly at headline inflation, some heavier numbers on inflation. I

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<v Speaker 1>think what the FED has to do and the ECB

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<v Speaker 1>has to do is think about you having a supply shock.

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<v Speaker 1>This is not a demand driven inflation. By the way

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<v Speaker 1>you think about what's happening to lower income, middle income people.

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<v Speaker 1>You're getting hurt on food costs, fuel costs. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>why do we raise interest rates to raise your mortgage?

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<v Speaker 1>It doesn't make any many sense. So I think what

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<v Speaker 1>what your synopsis is around that is gosh, I'll stay

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<v Speaker 1>on hold for a bit. I'll watch the data. I

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<v Speaker 1>think the ECB should do the same. Maybe they get

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<v Speaker 1>ahead of it and hike a couple of times, but

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<v Speaker 1>I listen. I think you know, when we've talked about before,

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<v Speaker 1>how's it look at the housing numbers this week, you

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<v Speaker 1>look at existing home sales, when the mortgage race shifts up,

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<v Speaker 1>home sales come down, and then you look at the

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<v Speaker 1>breakdown or retail sales. You know what's happening. And I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>is the dispersion keeps growing. Lower income, middle income having

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<v Speaker 1>a hard time. That's where the interest sensitivity is. So listen,

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<v Speaker 1>I think they still the Fed has to get the

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<v Speaker 1>rate down.

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<v Speaker 3>I still think you'll get a couple of cuts. Do

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<v Speaker 3>you push it back a little bit?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, maybe, but you're talking about a very two speed

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<v Speaker 1>economy where interest rates really affects things housing, small business,

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<v Speaker 1>lower income, and it's part of what I think the

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<v Speaker 1>rate can come down.

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<v Speaker 2>So reck, let's look across the curve right now. If

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<v Speaker 2>the Fed's going to stand hold, that's going to anchor

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<v Speaker 2>the front end. We've seen a lot of that in

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<v Speaker 2>the performance of fixed incoming treasury yields over the past

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<v Speaker 2>few weeks. If you go further out along the curve,

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<v Speaker 2>it just feels like the ten year is anchored around

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<v Speaker 2>four thirty, which was the upper end of the pre

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<v Speaker 2>wall range. How does your thinking sort of a just

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<v Speaker 2>when you talk about what's going to happen with FED

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<v Speaker 2>funds and the relationship between that, and how it informs

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<v Speaker 2>your view of how we'll get some performance further out

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<v Speaker 2>along the curve.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I had to tell you, Jonathan a minute

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<v Speaker 1>when you know, I hear people come on and say,

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<v Speaker 1>I think rates are going higher, things are going I

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<v Speaker 1>think rates are going lower. I actually find the turn

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<v Speaker 1>year part of the curve from an acid.

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<v Speaker 3>Allocation point of view, not interesting, as you said. But

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<v Speaker 3>by the way, my colleague Rus Brownback talks about your.

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<v Speaker 1>Show all the time. If you go back over the

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<v Speaker 1>last year or so and you look at the end

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<v Speaker 1>of every quarter, you look at the end of the year,

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<v Speaker 1>we've made pretty much hover around four twenty five, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>maybe four thirty, but it's pretty unbelievably stable. There's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of discussion about what do you do with the

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<v Speaker 1>with the with the ten year point. I do think

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<v Speaker 1>there'll be initiatives, and I do think what you know,

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<v Speaker 1>when Kevin Wursh is confirmed, I do think you'll see

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<v Speaker 1>a dynamic where can you contain the ten year point

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<v Speaker 1>of the curve? Can you keep mortgage rates down? Are

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<v Speaker 1>there initiatives to actually pull that mortgage rate down that

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<v Speaker 1>you can have through fiscal stimulus.

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<v Speaker 3>That's really powerful.

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<v Speaker 1>My sense is that ten year note will drift lower

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<v Speaker 1>over the through this year as you get maybe you

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<v Speaker 1>get the funds rate down a bit. Can you keep

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<v Speaker 1>the ten year alongside of it? But I will tell you, Jonathan,

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<v Speaker 1>in our portfolios, I say, look, you know, particularly the

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<v Speaker 1>back end not interesting. I just want to, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>try and do is keep my front to the belly

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<v Speaker 1>yield curve exposure, and I just clip coupon like a year,

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<v Speaker 1>like if we can just keep giving clients six and

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<v Speaker 1>a quarter type of coupon, type of yield, which you

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<v Speaker 1>could do without without compromising rating. I'm just going to

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<v Speaker 1>keep staying there and then, you know, let people get

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<v Speaker 1>excited about where we're going in the back end of

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<v Speaker 1>the curve.

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<v Speaker 2>Rick had got to ask you what kind of initiatives

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<v Speaker 2>would bring down rights yields at the long end of

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<v Speaker 2>the curve.

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<v Speaker 3>So so, by by the way, a bunch of things

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<v Speaker 3>from the FED. From the FED point of.

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<v Speaker 1>View, you can use your balance sheet effectively. We have

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<v Speaker 1>eighty nine percent of the debt of the treasury markets

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<v Speaker 1>in the zero to two year part of the yeld curve.

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<v Speaker 1>It's actually not that much out in the back end.

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<v Speaker 1>The FED can actually be very very effective and how

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<v Speaker 1>you manage the back end.

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<v Speaker 3>Of the yield curve. Second thing you do.

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<v Speaker 1>You see the administration through the GSC program is actually

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<v Speaker 1>buying a huge amount of mortgages, a couple hundred billion mortgages.

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<v Speaker 1>You can actually do a bit more with regard to that.

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<v Speaker 1>There are things you can do in terms of creating

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<v Speaker 1>initiatives to stimulate housing, home builder incentives, et cetera that

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<v Speaker 1>pull out mortgage rate down.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a whole series of things.

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<v Speaker 1>Listen. I mean you look at existing home sales WHI

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<v Speaker 1>should talk about. You look at how there's not enough

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<v Speaker 1>inventory of houses today. It influences labor mobility to the negative.

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<v Speaker 1>Because we don't have enough inventory, people can't move. It

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<v Speaker 1>influences we don't build enough houses. We don't put enough

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<v Speaker 1>people to work in shelter. And by the way, you

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<v Speaker 1>can't bring down shelter inflation because we don't have enough houses.

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<v Speaker 1>There's tremendous motivation and quite frankly the initiative to actually

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<v Speaker 1>bring down housing costs and to bring or to build

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<v Speaker 1>more inventory, to bring down that mortgage rate. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it has much more, much more benefit than

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<v Speaker 1>people give credit to.

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<v Speaker 2>Rick. Appreciate your time, so always good to hear from you.

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<v Speaker 2>That'd be a stranger. Ricreate it there of black crop.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you, sir, Thank you very much