1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. 2 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:06,520 Speaker 2: Oh now do you Berlain? 3 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: Whose guys are good? Hello everybody, and welcome to the 4 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:17,400 Speaker 1: Action Network Podcast. My name is Michael Leeboff. I am 5 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:20,159 Speaker 1: the hockey editor here at Action Network. And joining me 6 00:00:20,280 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: for this very special Stanley Cup Final betting preview show 7 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: is my friend one of our hockey experts, Nick Martin, 8 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: coming to us from Calgary, Alberta. And Nick, we've got 9 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,560 Speaker 1: a dream matchup here for the Stanley Cup Final. Two 10 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning looking for 11 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:41,159 Speaker 1: a three peat and their twelfth playoff series win in 12 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 1: a row, and they're the underdogs taking on the Colorado Avalanche, 13 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:47,919 Speaker 1: who were the Stanley Cup favorites on Night one, they 14 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 1: were the Stanley Cup favorites the day the playoffs started, 15 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 1: and they are the Stanley Cup favorites minus one seventy 16 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 1: five to hoist the cup right now as we embark 17 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: on the Stanley Cup Final, which begins Wednesday night in Colorado, 18 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:03,640 Speaker 1: the Lightning plus one fifty. Let's start with the Avalanche, 19 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: twelve and two overall in the postseason so far, they're 20 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 1: averaging four point six goals per game. They've been a 21 00:01:10,240 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: favorite in every game so far. They were the underdog 22 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: seven times from opening night to where we are right 23 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: now this entire season, and one of those nights was 24 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 1: a night the last night of the regular season on 25 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 1: a back to back where they just rested everybody. That 26 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 1: just tells you what this team's all about, and saying that, 27 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: I think that the number if you're just looking for action, 28 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 1: I think the number is pretty close to being fair. 29 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,200 Speaker 1: But it's Tampa or nothing for me on the series line, 30 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:37,680 Speaker 1: because I just think the Lightning they have a decided 31 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 1: edging goaltending. Their depth is especially if bradon point. It 32 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 1: looks like he's going to be go for Game one, 33 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 1: and if he's not for Game one, it'll be game 34 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 1: two with him in the lineup. The depth, maybe it 35 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 1: doesn't tip towards the Lightning, but it's close enough that 36 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: it becomes a little bit The series becomes closer to 37 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 1: a coin flip than I think the odds will make 38 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: it out to be. 39 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, I definitely agree with that. I think it's gotten 40 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 3: pretty long, especially there are some questions around the Avalanche. 41 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 3: We haven't really seen Kemper actually have to do anything, 42 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 3: which I think you can obviously take as a big 43 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 3: positive towards their play. We probably haven't seen a team 44 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 3: get through three rounds without really relying on their goalie 45 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 3: at any point like the Avalanche have, so obviously that 46 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 3: can be looked at as a pro. But they're not 47 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 3: going to control play to the same rate versus Tampa Bay, 48 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 3: and the goals aren't just they're not just another way 49 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:27,119 Speaker 3: score their way out of all their problems. And then yeah, 50 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 3: obviously with Cadre out, if point comes back and can 51 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 3: actually make a difference, then that's a pretty big swing 52 00:02:32,080 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 3: in the depth for sure. 53 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,639 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, like you said, like twelve and two, 54 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 1: the Avalanche are four point six goals per game, favorite 55 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 1: in every game, two sweeps. The two games they lost 56 00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: to the Blues, one of them was in overtime and 57 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,079 Speaker 1: was just a crazy game where the Blues came back 58 00:02:47,080 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 1: twice in like the last four minutes. And yet, like 59 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: you look at those teams, Nashville was on their backup 60 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: goalie and then had to go to their third string 61 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 1: goaliecause David Riddick just wasn't up to snuff. I guess 62 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 1: the Avalanche of games so two they play the Blues. 63 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:03,519 Speaker 1: Jordan Bennington looks great in the early part of the 64 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:05,799 Speaker 1: series and he gets hurt. And you add into that 65 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 1: that the Blues were playing without Tory Kruge, Marco Scandella 66 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:11,679 Speaker 1: at points, nick Letti at points, so their blue line 67 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 1: was all banged up. And then the Oilers, who are 68 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,919 Speaker 1: good a good team, top eight NHL team going into 69 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 1: the playoffs. I think we can all agree on that 70 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:23,880 Speaker 1: at this point. However, their defense is their weak link, right, 71 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,960 Speaker 1: so the Oilers just excuse me. The Avalanche just haven't 72 00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 1: really been tested by a juggernaut yet, whereas the Lightning 73 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: played a lot of teams Trendy Stanley Cup pick in 74 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 1: the round first round, which was the Toronto Maple Leaves 75 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 1: hung in there, went down one to nothing, two to one, 76 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 1: three to two, and then won a game seven in 77 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 1: Toronto to to one. Then they sweep to Florida Panthers 78 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 1: of President's Trophy winners most goals scored in a regular 79 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: season in the Salary cap Era, and then they go 80 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 1: down two nil to the Rangers and then two nil 81 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: in Game three, come all the way back to win 82 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: four in a row against the only goaltender who can 83 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 1: come close to andre As a Leski in terms of 84 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 1: best goalie in the world status. Right, So, whereas Tampa 85 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 1: Bay has passed an incredible amount of you know, arduous tests, 86 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 1: Colorado has it. And that's why I think, like it's 87 00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 1: I'm not being skeptical of Colorado. I admit that they 88 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,280 Speaker 1: are the best team in the NHL, it's just when 89 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 1: you're playing when you need to win four out of 90 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 1: seven against Tampa Bay in their current form, the way 91 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 1: they're playing and with their goaltender, it's a lot different 92 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:29,080 Speaker 1: from you know, blowing the doors off of the National 93 00:04:29,120 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 1: Predators and then doing the same thing to the Edmonton 94 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 1: Oilers and just kind of outlasting the Blues the way 95 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: that they did. Right. 96 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, I definitely think there's not really a 97 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 3: debate that Tampa Bay have had a much tougher path 98 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 3: to the final. I think we've seen some hate over 99 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:46,279 Speaker 3: the last two years, justified or not that the Cup 100 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 3: wins were kind of cheapies. I don't really bind too that, 101 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 3: but this one definitely would not be, because they've taken 102 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 3: out for really, really good teams if they were to 103 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:57,120 Speaker 3: win the Cup again. So yeah, I think Tampa obviously 104 00:04:57,120 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 3: has proven more so far. It's hard to say if 105 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 3: that'll end being necessarily such a positive or not, maybe 106 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,040 Speaker 3: if they're a little worn down. But that said, with 107 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:07,839 Speaker 3: Qudrey out of it, it's not like they should be 108 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 3: heading into this with a much worse injury situation than Colorado. 109 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 3: Especially you're with Gerardo too obviously bob Byrom's really really 110 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 3: stepped up. But yeah, I just I think this all 111 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 3: kind of comes back to the question which we started 112 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 3: this all with. Is the series price a little too 113 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 3: long right now? And I think with those question marks 114 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 3: it is kind of just a good comment towards it 115 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 3: might be for Tampa. 116 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 1: And you look at the like the series spread Colorado 117 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 1: minus one and a half is plus one ten. Similarly, like, 118 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 1: I think that is way too short, Like you need 119 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 1: to give me a much better number to back Colorado 120 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:43,600 Speaker 1: to win by more than one game. Because of the 121 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 1: way that Tampa has shown just their one of their 122 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,000 Speaker 1: innate skills, and this is something we can really quantify, 123 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:52,520 Speaker 1: is just hanging around and pacing themselves in a series. 124 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,799 Speaker 1: They just look what they did to the Rangers, going 125 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 1: down to nothing and then just willing their way back 126 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 1: not only into the series, but then to win four 127 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:03,599 Speaker 1: straight games to win that series. And there was a 128 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:06,280 Speaker 1: moment basically, and I don't want to say because it's 129 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:08,920 Speaker 1: too obvious to point at the Rangers losing that Game 130 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 1: three when they're up to nothing, but I would say, 131 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 1: like around Game four in that series, there were just 132 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 1: a moment where the lightning just kind of clicked, like 133 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 1: and when that happens in a series, I'm I've seen 134 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:21,760 Speaker 1: it twice with the Islanders, right, like when they get 135 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 1: their teeth into an opponent, they just don't let them go. 136 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 1: And that doesn't mean that they're gonna win, but it 137 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: does mean that they're gonna hang in, like they're just 138 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 1: gonna hang on for the ride. So I think Tampa 139 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:33,000 Speaker 1: and basically any of the derivatives too, if you want 140 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 1: to take a shot on Tampa to win like a 141 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 1: short series, like I just think everything based off of 142 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: Tampa having value to win the series will then also 143 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 1: have have value. Let's switch to Game one. Then it's 144 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: minus one fifty five for the Avalanche plus one thirty 145 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:48,599 Speaker 1: five for the Bolts. Over under is at six, with 146 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 1: the overjuiced minus one twenty. I think that what this 147 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,159 Speaker 1: line is telling us, the minus one fifty five being 148 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:59,479 Speaker 1: twenty cents below the series line is the market knows 149 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,720 Speaker 1: the rest versus RUSS narrative by now in the NHL playoffs, 150 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: we know that the Lightning have they played a couple 151 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 1: of nights ago, they'll have an adequate amount of rest, 152 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 1: a normal amount of rest, let's say, and they can 153 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 1: also get acclimatized to the altitude in Denver, whereas the 154 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: Avalanche are going to be off for a long time 155 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: in between series and just going back, we now have 156 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 1: historical data, not just in this postseason and the postseason 157 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 1: before that, that you just don't want to be off 158 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: this long in the NHL, like the bye weeks were 159 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 1: always a disaster for the teams coming off of buye 160 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 1: if they were playing a team that wasn't off a 161 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 1: buy and it's especially true for goaltending. The only thing 162 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 1: is the Avalanche aren't as reliant on their goaltenders are's 163 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 1: a lot of other teams. So even if Darcy Kemper is, 164 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 1: you know, not inform and he's also we need to 165 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: mention that, you know, he's been injured twice in this playoffs, 166 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 1: so his layoff is even longer than the team, it's 167 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 1: not a huge deal if he's not informed because they 168 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: just don't really need him, and on a game by 169 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 1: game basis, obviously over series they will, but I truly 170 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: expect Andrey Vasilevski just to pick up where he left 171 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: off against the Rangers. So it's a little expensive on 172 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: the Lightning, But once again, like if I'm making a 173 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 1: bet in this game, it's I'm taking the plus one 174 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 1: thirty five over the minus one fifty five year as well. 175 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think with how much the Lightning have shown, like, 176 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 3: you don't really want to jump in on a team 177 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 3: with a couple question marks at such a long number. 178 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 3: I think personally I would say lightning or the under 179 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 3: kind of my two means that obviously, I think it's 180 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 3: a game where it wouldn't be really surprising to see 181 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:33,680 Speaker 3: really any number of things happen. But I think with 182 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 3: what we saw at the end of the Rangers series, 183 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:38,199 Speaker 3: it's pretty likely we'll see tampas to get out defenseimbly, 184 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 3: come out sharp, and even with how high power they 185 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:44,160 Speaker 3: Avalanche's offenses, when you do the right things and you 186 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 3: have Aslevskia net, it's pretty hard to generate. Like if 187 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 3: they're not going to have complete breakdowns, they're not going 188 00:08:48,679 --> 00:08:51,199 Speaker 3: to give up easy aud Man rushes that sort of thing, 189 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 3: it's pretty likely that they're still going to keep that 190 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 3: much to a reasonable total. So I think kind of 191 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:58,200 Speaker 3: with where the lines are set, those would be my 192 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 3: first two looks, kind of around maybe a lower scoring 193 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 3: Avalanche or sorry Lightning win or probably kind of the 194 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 3: angles where I see some value. 195 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: And on that note, one long shot bet I like 196 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:11,319 Speaker 1: for Game one is Besilevsky to pitch a shutout. It's 197 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 1: sixteen to one, which tells you a couple of things. 198 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 1: One like he was being dealt at like eight to one, 199 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 1: nine to one to pitch a shout out against the Rangers. 200 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 1: So it just tells you just how good this Avalanche 201 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 1: offense is, especially at home. But the reason I think 202 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:29,200 Speaker 1: that that bet holds the value is because the rust factor, right, 203 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 1: we just don't know how this Avalanche team. I mean, 204 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: they could score a goal thirty five seconds and we 205 00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: know that this team can score on the blink of 206 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: an eye, and it's an unlikely bet to win, but 207 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: there just is a there is a universe out there 208 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:45,439 Speaker 1: where the Avalanche just aren't clicking out of the gates, 209 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 1: and with the Lightning's defensive prowess, if they sense that 210 00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:50,559 Speaker 1: they're going to just lock it up and they're just 211 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 1: going to turn this game into a rock fight, Like, Okay, 212 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 1: we'll try to win the two one game because that's 213 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 1: what the Avalanche giving them. If the Avalanche score early 214 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 1: and you know, open things up, then the Lightning can 215 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:01,679 Speaker 1: also play that way. But I so that's why I 216 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,120 Speaker 1: think that that bet, Like I actually really like that 217 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:05,839 Speaker 1: bet at sixteen oh one on Bess left speed to 218 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 1: pitch a shut out. 219 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I can definitely agree. I see some value there. 220 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 3: And I'm not saying it's going to go this way 221 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:15,400 Speaker 3: and wouldn't be surprising to see Colorado Colorado come up 222 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 3: flying by any means, but yeah, at that kind of 223 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 3: a price. And we saw Vegas last year of Colorado 224 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 3: did kind of shut down, got a little nervy at 225 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 3: the end of the series, and I think at the 226 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 3: first game of the final it's not insane to think 227 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:28,720 Speaker 3: that we could see them look that way here. 228 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 1: And the way that Tampa kind of paces themselves as well, 229 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 1: Like I think that they're going to just be much 230 00:10:35,920 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: more comfortable in the game one kind of feeling out 231 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 1: process than the Bavalanch will because the Avalanche just they 232 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 1: know and they're much more versatile than this is going 233 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:45,440 Speaker 1: to make it sound like. But like they know and 234 00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: want to play at one speed, right, They just want 235 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 1: to play north south. They just want to generate as 236 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 1: many pucks into the offensive zone. They want to skate 237 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:54,480 Speaker 1: as many pucks into the offense zone as possible. Whereas 238 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:56,720 Speaker 1: against the Lightning, like, if they don't give you that, 239 00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:59,199 Speaker 1: you need to find a plan be pretty quickly or 240 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:01,040 Speaker 1: else you're going to pay for it and you're just 241 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 1: gonna get fresh. I mean, we saw it with the 242 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 1: Florida Panthers, right, like they would just get visibly frustrated 243 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 1: at every game and like couldn't generate anything consistently. So 244 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 1: if Tampa's able to do that then and frustrate the 245 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 1: Avalanche offense, you're talking about Bezileski maybe getting through a 246 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 1: period and a half where he's and of course he's 247 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 1: one of the best goalies in the world. So that's 248 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 1: also why this vet has some value. We didn't even 249 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 1: mention that, but like you could see like getting into 250 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 1: like the middle of that second period where the Avalanche 251 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 1: are just trying to find it still and if you 252 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 1: do that, you're holding a sixteen to one ticket on 253 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 1: a shutout. You'll take that any day of the week. 254 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:37,680 Speaker 2: Now onto Sleeper. Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform 255 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,560 Speaker 2: today with millions of players. You probably already have a 256 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 2: fantasy league on there. I use it for mine. 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Make sure 275 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:33,200 Speaker 2: to use promo code action and sleep or match your 276 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:36,679 Speaker 2: deposit up to one hundred dollars again download Sleeper, then 277 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 2: use promo code action when you deposit. Terms and conditions apply. 278 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:43,400 Speaker 2: See Sleepers Terms of use for details. Okay, back to 279 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:43,839 Speaker 2: the show. 280 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,240 Speaker 1: All right, let's look at the con smythe market really quick. 281 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 1: It's you know, it's so late in the game now 282 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 1: that it's kind of hard to find entry points here. 283 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 1: Cale mccarr is the favorite at plus two hundred, Nathan 284 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,679 Speaker 1: McKinnon plus two twenty. Then it's the key to Kutrev, 285 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:02,679 Speaker 1: which I find interesting plus three seventy five. Vesilevski's four 286 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:06,200 Speaker 1: to one stampcost fourteen to one. And the only kind 287 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 1: of long shot that I think has any shred of 288 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:10,839 Speaker 1: value at this point is is Andre Pillott. I'll get 289 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 1: into him in a little bit. What are your thoughts 290 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: there at the top of the board, anything you like? 291 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:19,199 Speaker 1: You know, we talk about the strategy before the playoffs, 292 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:21,679 Speaker 1: and then you know, last week when we did kind 293 00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 1: of an update before the series was set about finding 294 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 1: a correlated consome might bet to get a better number 295 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 1: on you know, series line for both of these teams. 296 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:32,320 Speaker 1: But I guess at this point like that strategy has 297 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:34,839 Speaker 1: to go out the window because the way Kutou's. 298 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 3: Price, Yeah, I think personally they the betting market's undervaluing 299 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:42,440 Speaker 3: what Vesilevsky's done a little bit so far. I don't 300 00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 3: know if they think the voters are going to like 301 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 3: this story of finally giving Kutrov one if maybe that's 302 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,960 Speaker 3: something that's going into it that I personally think Vesilevsky 303 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 3: should have established a pretty huge lead entering this series 304 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 3: more than I think those prices reflect, because I think 305 00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 3: at the end of the Toronto series is pretty clear 306 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:02,440 Speaker 3: that he kind of got it done for them, came 307 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 3: through basically in the huge moments in game six, in 308 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 3: game seven, and then the Florida series is pretty obvious 309 00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 3: that he was by far and away their most key player, 310 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,400 Speaker 3: So I think, basically yeah, and then same deal with 311 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 3: the Rangers series. At the end, I think he established himself, 312 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 3: so I really am surprised he's not more heavily favored. 313 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 3: I do think this could potentially be a good series 314 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 3: for Kutrov if it does end up being a little 315 00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:28,560 Speaker 3: higher scoring and the Avalanche comunity kemper falters a little 316 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 3: bit and the Lightning you end up with some pretty 317 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 3: big totals and they win. I could see how that 318 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:36,080 Speaker 3: would help Kutrov, But personally, I still do think that 319 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 3: there's some value there on Basilevski because I just don't 320 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 3: think that market's reflecting how far ahead he should be 321 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 3: in this race right now. 322 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. I would make Vezileski the favorite 323 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: of the Lightning players. I think you're right right. It's 324 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: the narrative. The betty market knows that these are human 325 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 1: beings that vote on the award. It Vasileski won it 326 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 1: last year, and they don't want to give it to 327 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 1: the same gay two years in a row, basically, So 328 00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 1: that's what I think we're starting to see some love 329 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 1: for Kuchrov. I think some people would point to stamp Coast. 330 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:08,480 Speaker 1: He's got nine goals, so he's leading the team there 331 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 1: in that regards as a potential long shot. But I 332 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: think that if you're going to go beyond those guys, 333 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 1: I think Andre pilot is and you just want to, 334 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 1: you know, a punt, like a true true punt. Here 335 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 1: it's Andre Pallot eight goals, eight assists for sixteen points. 336 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 1: His eight goals are one behind Stamp Coast for the 337 00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 1: team lead. But it's he's building himself this kind of 338 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 1: reputation of being a really clutch performer because he is. 339 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 1: He had the game winning goal in Game five, he 340 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 1: had the game winning goal in the last minute of 341 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 1: Game three, and he was the one who made that 342 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 1: stretch pass to Kuchirov, which who then passed the stamp 343 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 1: coast for the game winning goal in the elimination game 344 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 1: Game six. So the reason I think it's a very 345 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 1: very thin path for Palot, but the reason I think 346 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:00,280 Speaker 1: there is one is because we're going to be seeing 347 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 1: a lot of if the Lightning win, then you would 348 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: think that we'd probably see some tight, lower scoring two 349 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 1: to one, three two type games, and he's just the 350 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 1: type of player that in those environments will pop up 351 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 1: on the score sheet. And if he has two, maybe 352 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 1: three big goals in this series and pass his stampcos 353 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:19,920 Speaker 1: for the goal scoring lead, and maybe Kouchirov is a little, 354 00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 1: you know, pedestrian, maybe Vasileski has an off game or two, 355 00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 1: then we're talking he's he should be in at least 356 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 1: in the conversation, and he, like I said, he's become 357 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:30,800 Speaker 1: a little bit of immedia darling with what he did 358 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 1: in the Rangers series, So at eighty to one, I 359 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: find him just to be a little bit a little 360 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 1: bit interesting. 361 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, I can definitely see the logic there 362 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 3: should we go into the Avalanche guy. 363 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, the Avalanche guys, this is I think the car 364 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 1: if they win, it's macar. 365 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 3: Right, it's kind of like a little more seeing a 366 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 3: lot more of the narratives in the media. It's like 367 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 3: you said when we talked last time, I do think 368 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 3: it's kind of became clear that he's the one who's 369 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 3: really overtaken most of the story. I think it would 370 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 3: take a pretty big series from McKinnon for it to 371 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,880 Speaker 3: be him over mccarr. And I don't know, we will 372 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 3: see that mccar has just been so dominant that and 373 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,359 Speaker 3: all the underlying numbers suggest that he is making a 374 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 3: bigger difference. So yeah, I think I think it's starting 375 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 3: to look like it'll be mccarr if it is the Avalanche. 376 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 1: So yeah, you need a huge series from McKinnon. And 377 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:22,919 Speaker 1: even if he has a big series like that probably 378 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 1: means mccar is doing a lot of the work too, right, 379 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 1: Like he's facilitating, he's getting assists on McKinnon goals, and 380 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,440 Speaker 1: you know, if McKinnon's going off, that means probably the 381 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:33,919 Speaker 1: games are open, wide open, and that suits mcar so 382 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:37,199 Speaker 1: I have a tough time. I think McKinnon should be 383 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 1: kind of where Vasilevski is at like four to one. 384 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:42,720 Speaker 1: I think mccars should be almost odds on at this point, 385 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 1: So maybe there is like a shred of value there 386 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 1: if you want to take the chance of betting the 387 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 1: Avalanche series price instead, maybe take a little bit of 388 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:56,399 Speaker 1: a riskier bet with a higher ceiling and back mccarids. 389 00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:59,480 Speaker 3: And one other important note that I'd make is I 390 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:01,919 Speaker 3: think a lot of the Avalanche's series wins are going 391 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 3: to involve shutting down the coucher Ofvline and Taves and mccarr. 392 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 3: They've shown that they can shut down the top units 393 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 3: very clearly. The series versus Edmonton proved that, you know, 394 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,960 Speaker 3: full full tilt, and I just think it's quite likely 395 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:17,679 Speaker 3: if they win, it's going to be with that pairing 396 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:20,159 Speaker 3: dominating the Kuchurov unit, and then that's going to be 397 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,440 Speaker 3: really apparent as well, and I think that'll swing some 398 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 3: voters into how just how crucial macar is to the team. 399 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,160 Speaker 1: And let's talk about one last market before we sign off, 400 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 1: your top goal scorer for the series. Run through the 401 00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 1: odds really quick, at least at the top of the board, 402 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: Granton in five to one for the Avalanche as a favorite, 403 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 1: McKinnon plus five fifty stamp posts seven to one, Coutra 404 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 1: up seven and a half to one, Gabriel Landiscott eight 405 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 1: to one, and then you know there's a bunch of 406 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:47,120 Speaker 1: players in between that it's very unlikely that that win 407 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:49,600 Speaker 1: and the prices aren't good enough. But then plot shows 408 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 1: up again at twenty to one. I have a little 409 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 1: bit interested again there, like it would have to be 410 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 1: a pretty low scoring series where someone like five goals 411 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 1: for Palt is enough or maybe before. So if I'm 412 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:03,160 Speaker 1: going to bet that one, I would just rather bet. 413 00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 1: I think take the eighty to one on the conser. 414 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: I'm a man, Andre Pollatt, But anything you see here 415 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: for the goal scorers. 416 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:14,439 Speaker 3: Yeah, for the goals, I didn't personally, but I definitely agree. Actually, 417 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 3: my favorite long shot would be Pilatte. If they're going 418 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 3: to stick him out on that line the whole time, 419 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 3: there's definitely a good chance we saw in the Rangers 420 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 3: series he can end up on the end of some 421 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:27,160 Speaker 3: easy ones there from Kouchurov, and you might not think 422 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 3: of him as much. He's not as noticeable driving the 423 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 3: play but it's definitely possible he ends up on enough 424 00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 3: to hang around at a twenty to one price. 425 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 1: There, you said it right there, right, he hangs around. 426 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:38,720 Speaker 1: He's just the type of player that's just he's always 427 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:42,200 Speaker 1: around the action. And if this is a low scoring 428 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 1: type series, like that's the type of player that you need, 429 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:45,679 Speaker 1: Like just the guy who's in the right place at 430 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 1: the right time, at the right moment. Anything else for you, 431 00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 1: I know you were kind of targeting another market real 432 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:52,960 Speaker 1: quick before we get out of here. 433 00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:56,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, the last market that I saw some value on, 434 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,880 Speaker 3: so points Bet had Cale mccar at six to one 435 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,479 Speaker 3: to win the or to put up the most points 436 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,640 Speaker 3: in the series, and I think there's some strong value there. 437 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 3: He entering the series has the most best points per 438 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 3: game in the playoffs with anyone in the series. It's 439 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 3: got twenty two, which leads the Avalanche, and then Kucharov 440 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 3: had twenty three, but he's obviously played more games. So 441 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 3: just on that narrative, the fact the Avalanche could control 442 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 3: more of the play it's quite possible they're obviously rightfully 443 00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 3: favored to win the series. So yeah, I think that's 444 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 3: a pretty good number for someone who's I think more 445 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 3: logically the series leader in points than that suggests awesome. 446 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 1: So that'll do it for this episode of the Action 447 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:38,199 Speaker 1: Network podcast for Dick Martin and Michael Leeboff. And a 448 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 1: reminder if you are into betting on hockey, we have 449 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 1: a hockey betting podcast that we'll be covering every game 450 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:47,679 Speaker 1: of the Stanley Cup Final. It's called Line Change with 451 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:49,680 Speaker 1: an exclamation point at the end, and you can find 452 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,320 Speaker 1: it the same place you can find this podcast. But 453 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:54,239 Speaker 1: until we talk to you again, we wish you all 454 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,480 Speaker 1: the best of luck with your bets on the Stanley 455 00:20:56,480 --> 00:21:04,000 Speaker 1: Cup Final. He may not be doing there.