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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action, all right. Here we go

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Speaker 2: throwing out spect we're sitting.

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Speaker 1: It's a cash touchtime.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right.

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Speaker 1: This is the ultimate combine.

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Speaker 2: And you want to fall.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 2: am your host, Evan Abrams, and I'm joined by Brandon

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Speaker 2: Anderson for some best bets for NFL Week eleven. Now

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Speaker 2: we will get to those that shortly, but first I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna go through two fun trends just uh kind of

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Speaker 2: about this season, but more or less, this first one

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Speaker 2: about a great game this week. So Seahawks seven and

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Speaker 2: two against the spread seven and two straight up, Rams

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Speaker 2: seven and two against the spread seven to two straight up.

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Speaker 2: Both teams face off this weekend spread about three and

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Speaker 2: real tight game. But in the wildcard. Ever since nineteen ninety,

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Speaker 2: we have yet to have a matchup where both teams

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Speaker 2: have a seventy seven percent win percentage or higher both

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Speaker 2: straight up and against the spread in the tenth game

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Speaker 2: or later of the season. Obviously before that, lots of records,

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Speaker 2: short games, we get it. But at this point this

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Speaker 2: matchup really incredible. And if you I, me and Brandon

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Speaker 2: talked about this and Brandon you can jump in here.

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Speaker 2: Like the past few weeks we've had incredible games, and

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Speaker 2: I feel like it just continues. Like you look ahead,

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Speaker 2: there's Colts Chiefs, Like there is a lot of good

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Speaker 2: games in this middle window of this season. But what

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Speaker 2: are your thoughts overall?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, this is definitely a super exciting game. Oh, it's crazy.

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Speaker 3: Is it's not even necessarily for sure the NFC game

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Speaker 3: of the day because we finished that game, have a

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Speaker 3: little break and then play Lions Eagles in the Sunday

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Speaker 3: night game, which is just as important, and so we

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Speaker 3: kind of cap our day with those two. We're gonna

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Speaker 3: cap our picks today with those two. I've got to

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Speaker 3: pick Onlines Eagles to start us out where I have

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Speaker 3: a pretty good read. I have less of a read

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Speaker 3: on Seattle and the Rams, but I of course want

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Speaker 3: to talk about it, so of course came up with

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Speaker 3: a long shot on that one. I've got a buried

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Speaker 3: down the list prop that will do a fun escalator

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Speaker 3: on and a little bit of Previe on the side.

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Speaker 3: It's a really interesting matchup. A lot of personnel stuff

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Speaker 3: to talk about there, and yeah, it feels like in

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Speaker 3: the AFC we're just like will somebody please be good?

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Speaker 3: And the NFC we're getting battles week after week. It's

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Speaker 3: like King of the Hill. And as soon as you

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Speaker 3: get to the top, like the Eagles just won the

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Speaker 3: game of the week, and now they're in another one

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Speaker 3: against Detroit. Now we got Seattle in LA. They'll play

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Speaker 3: again on a Thursday later this year, so we get

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Speaker 3: that one coming, We'll get you know, Green Bay Detroit.

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Speaker 3: Some of those matchups in here as well. Just yeah,

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Speaker 3: fun game week after week. And I think it's telling

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Speaker 3: to the parody of the league also that we we

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Speaker 3: don't really know who the best team is. We have

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Speaker 3: like nine be best teams. So that's kind of fun

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Speaker 3: because normally you're like, well, is the best team playing

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Speaker 3: a good team?

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Speaker 1: Maybe that's the game of the week.

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Speaker 3: Right now, it's like, well, if there's like nine out

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Speaker 3: of thirty two, pretty good chances two of them are

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Speaker 3: going to play each other given a week, And this case,

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Speaker 3: we've got a few like that. You look, even Bill's

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Speaker 3: Buccaneers is not on our rundown today. It's a pretty

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Speaker 3: good game, Like that's a potential super Bowl matchup if

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Speaker 3: those teams get hot. So yeah, we don't know who

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Speaker 3: the great teams are and it's fun because we get

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Speaker 3: to keep watching really good teams play and kind of

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Speaker 3: find out along the way.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know about you. I'm also kind of

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Speaker 2: glad that games in LA. I like the Seattle on

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Speaker 2: the road stuff and you know them fans. I think

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Speaker 2: it's more fun, all right. My last stat before we

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Speaker 2: move on. Through ten weeks, we've had thirty five total

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Speaker 2: backup quarterbacks start in the NFL this season. One matchup

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Speaker 2: of backup versus backup. We could throw that out the window,

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Speaker 2: but in the thirty four games, the over is actually

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Speaker 2: twenty six and eight when a backup quarterback starts this

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Speaker 2: year seventy seven percent six and one since to start

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Speaker 2: a week nine, now, we got a bunch of backups

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Speaker 2: this week. We got Mariota in Jamison, Flacco's still starting,

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Speaker 2: Davis Mills, and we got backup versus backup basically with

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Speaker 2: Mac Jones and Jacoby Brissett. So any thoughts overall, because

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Speaker 2: I think this season, we're seeing a bunch of odd

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Speaker 2: points and odd games. I think some teams are scoring

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Speaker 2: more than others, some teams are inept. But when you're

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Speaker 2: talking about these games where maybe you know, games getting

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Speaker 2: a little out of hand, or there's some defensive touchdowns potentially,

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Speaker 2: But what do you make of this?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think we're seeing like people probably

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Speaker 3: chasing steam a little bit on some of sure, you know,

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Speaker 3: like the Texans this week.

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Speaker 1: We thought it looked like CJ. Stroud would play.

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Speaker 3: At the time we're recording, it looks like it probably

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Speaker 3: will not be ready to go. And when that news

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Speaker 3: leaked out this week, the total dropped a couple of points.

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Speaker 3: And that's what happens in these matchups. Usually Marcus Mayota

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Speaker 3: once he goes on the lineup. Yeah, of course the

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Speaker 3: toll is going to be lower than Jane Daniels. It's

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Speaker 3: a good like a double down effect. Washington is going

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Speaker 3: to score more with their real quarterback, but them scoring

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Speaker 3: more is also going to force the other team to

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Speaker 3: have to score more, so it even like increases that

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Speaker 3: total sometimes as well. So you kind of have to

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Speaker 3: do like what's the carry down effect here? Like what

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Speaker 3: what is the thing that's happening when Davis Mills goes in.

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Speaker 3: What's happening is it the Texans are scoring more and

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Speaker 3: that's why all these overs are there. Probably not directly,

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Speaker 3: Davis Mills is the backup for a reason, but it's

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Speaker 3: changing the line, it's changing the total, it's changing how

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Speaker 3: teams are playing. Maybe the Texans are more aggressive now

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Speaker 3: because they have to be with Davis Mills because they

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Speaker 3: know he's not that good. Maybe they have to do

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Speaker 3: things that way. Like I'm not even saying that without

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Speaker 3: the Texans. I'm just grabbing a name off the list here.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I think as we do. You know, we

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Speaker 3: talked about this last week at the start of the podcast.

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Speaker 3: What if there's a game where I really like the favorite,

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Speaker 3: but I don't know how to bet it because the

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Speaker 3: line is too high. How can we find a different

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Speaker 3: way to attack? And I think this year kind of

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Speaker 3: parallel with.

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Speaker 1: What we just said.

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Speaker 3: We don't know who the great teams are, but I

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Speaker 3: think because the backup quarterbacks and some of the coach firings,

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Speaker 3: we kind of know who some really bad teams are, right, Like,

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Speaker 3: we really like, Oh, I still love to bet against

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Speaker 3: the Titans this week.

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Speaker 1: That'd be a lot of fun.

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Speaker 3: How do I bet against the Titans right now? And

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Speaker 3: so I think that's the thing with some of these

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Speaker 3: if you want to bet against the backup quarterback or

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Speaker 3: their team, Okay, how do I do that?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 3: I can do that a thousand ways other than the spread.

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Speaker 3: Maybe there's not value or hard to find value there.

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Speaker 3: Maybe the backup quarterback's playing, so this team's going to

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Speaker 3: just run against them all game. Maybe their own running

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Speaker 3: back is going to run all game because they don't

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Speaker 3: trust the quarterback. Like what's the knock on effect of

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Speaker 3: backup quarterback in it's not necessarily this games are go

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Speaker 3: high scoring for the over. Maybe that does buy us

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Speaker 3: some value to tell us some other things in other

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Speaker 3: ways to invest. And I think that's the fun is

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Speaker 3: it's a new puzzle each game to kind of solve.

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Speaker 1: Here's what I think about it.

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Speaker 3: But now how do I find the number and the

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Speaker 3: prop or the line or whatever?

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Speaker 2: Too?

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Speaker 1: Back to the thing that I think, And that's what

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Speaker 1: we do on this podcast. It's a lot of fun

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Speaker 1: every week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the drop on the line, I think is an

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Speaker 2: interesting thought. And also maybe it's just chill Flacco all right,

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Speaker 2: But Before we move on, don't forget to sign up

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Speaker 2: for action Pro for real time pick alert to max.

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Speaker 2: It's like Brandon Anderson, myself, our entire action every team,

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Speaker 2: Plus you can access our pro projections powered by Sean

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Speaker 2: Kerner and our predictive analytics team. Just go to actionework

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Speaker 2: dot com slash pro get twenty dollars off the annual

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Speaker 2: price with the promo code pod twenty Pod twenty. So

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Speaker 2: don't miss out on the best bets at the best prices.

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Speaker 2: Visit actionework dot com slash pro use a promo code

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Speaker 2: po d twenty Pod twenty to get twenty dollars off

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Speaker 2: a year of Action Pro. All right, it's time to

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Speaker 2: get into some NFL Week eleven best bets now. If

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Speaker 2: you want to tell some of these bets, look for

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Speaker 2: the quick sublimic in the podcast and video description, or

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Speaker 2: go to actionework dot com slash bet now b e

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Speaker 2: t n ow bet Now. We will start, as always

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Speaker 2: with Brandon's pick six. Now at the beginning of the

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Speaker 2: pick six, it is Patriots money line, so we get

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Speaker 2: we have to hold you accountable. This podcast will come

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Speaker 2: out after Thursday Night Football, so I actually put this

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Speaker 2: out Teams favored by over ten points on a Thursday

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Speaker 2: thirty three and oh since nineteen seventy, So if this

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Speaker 2: is the one tonight, we blame it on ourselves. Keith,

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Speaker 2: what else you got in the parlay?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, hopefully thirty four no, as you listen, and then

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Speaker 3: we're all in on the early Sunday window. So Steelers, Bills,

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Speaker 3: Packers Texans, they're all about five to seven point favorites.

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Speaker 3: We're taking them all and then one upset that should

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Speaker 3: not come as surprise if you've been listening to our

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Speaker 3: last podcast on the look Ahead last week and on

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Speaker 3: Hot Read. We're all in on Panthers this week at

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Speaker 3: the Falcons. So the Panthers are the upset, plus the

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Speaker 3: Thursday night and other Sunday favorites all on the early window.

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Speaker 3: By middle afternoon we're plus eight fifty one. We're cashing

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Speaker 3: and already watching the rest of our bets. So that's

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Speaker 3: the pick six this week. One upset and a bunch

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Speaker 3: of big favorites, and yeah, we'll see how it goes.

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Speaker 2: You're Sam, this is your best. We will start now

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Speaker 2: with I don't know the second best NFC matchup of

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Speaker 2: the weekend. Depends how you look at it. Lions Eagles.

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Speaker 2: I think you and I are on the same side here,

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Speaker 2: So which side are you takeing in this dogfight?

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Speaker 1: I like the Lions.

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Speaker 3: For all the talk about Rams Seahawks, I think this

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Speaker 3: one is as important. I have a better read on it.

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Speaker 3: And I think two, we don't know yet if the

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Speaker 3: Rams and Seahawks are the real NFC teams. We kind

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Speaker 3: of do know with the Lions and the Eagles. We've

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Speaker 3: seen them, right, We've seen them go on runs, We've

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Speaker 3: seen them play playoff football.

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Speaker 1: What's that mean?

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Speaker 3: Run the football, play defense? Well, right now, I think

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Speaker 3: Detroit's better at both of those things. By DVA defense.

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Speaker 1: Detroit is fifth.

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Speaker 3: Philly's improving but still thirteenth on the season. And then

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Speaker 3: look at the rushing matchup, Detroit sixth in rushing versus

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Speaker 3: twenty first defensively for Philly. And then the flip side.

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Speaker 3: I know we think Philly is good at running twenty

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Speaker 3: second by DVA versus seventh, Detroit's run defense is the

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Speaker 3: advantage there too, So I actually make Detroit the favorite here,

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Speaker 3: even on the road. And I know we just watched Philly.

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Speaker 3: We saw their defense certainly a lot improved. That's the

224
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Speaker 3: talk right now. But how about Detroit. Dan Campbell took

225
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Speaker 3: over play calling last week, and what did we see?

226
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Speaker 3: We saw a lot more motion, and we saw almost

227
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Speaker 3: double the amount of play action last week, and we

228
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Speaker 3: saw their highest pass rate over expectation of the season

229
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Speaker 3: as well. All that is interesting because Detroit is top

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Speaker 3: three EPA per play in motion plays and play action plays,

231
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Speaker 3: so he's leaning in on what he knows they do best.

232
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Speaker 3: And importantly, the Eagles are twenty ninth defensively against play

233
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Speaker 3: action plays by EPA pri plays, so that is an

234
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Speaker 3: area I think that they can be beaten here. And look,

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Speaker 3: I know it's goff on the road. It's windy. We're

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Speaker 3: gonna a lot of windy games up in the Northeast

237
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Speaker 3: corridor this week. I don't love that part, but I

238
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Speaker 3: still have to like the matchup because I have Detroit

239
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Speaker 3: favored here. A lot of injuries on both sides. I

240
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Speaker 3: think that's part of why the line is what it is.

241
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Speaker 3: The Eagles injuries are snipping to four of their five

242
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Speaker 3: linemen are on the injury report, and especially Lane Johnson

243
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Speaker 3: was in and out last week. He is huge to

244
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Speaker 3: their game week after week. So I just trust the

245
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Speaker 3: Lions more. Both sides the ball I trust more, they

246
00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:23,079
Speaker 3: get the better special teams, I trust their coaches more.

247
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Speaker 3: It's a luck side this week as well from our

248
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Speaker 3: luck rankings. So Lions plus three, be sure to grab

249
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Speaker 3: the three if you can while it's there. Nine straight

250
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Speaker 3: Lions wins have been by six or more points. So

251
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Speaker 3: rather than just the money line, we're not getting a

252
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Speaker 3: ton of value there. I'm gonna go more aggressive as

253
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Speaker 3: I do. Lions minus five and a half is the alt.

254
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Speaker 3: I'm gonna play plus two forty six to get the win,

255
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Speaker 3: but with a little bit of margin and if you

256
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Speaker 3: want the futures escalator we did last time Evan our

257
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Speaker 3: MVP conversation, we didn't talk a lot about either quarterback

258
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Speaker 3: in this matchup, and as I dug into the race

259
00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:03,160
Speaker 3: and the number, I think these two guys actually are

260
00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:06,360
Speaker 3: where the best value is. We talked about Mahomes and Allen.

261
00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:09,720
Speaker 3: They're looking at like six seven seeds right now, six' seven.

262
00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:12,720
Speaker 3: May he's got a target on his. BACK i don't

263
00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:15,040
Speaker 3: love betting in at him at like three to one right.

264
00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:19,200
Speaker 3: Now hurts And goff are getting priced Like Justin, herbert

265
00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:21,960
Speaker 3: who doesn't have a line Like Lamar, jackson who has

266
00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:23,920
Speaker 3: like a two percent chance to the top two, seed

267
00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:27,880
Speaker 3: Like Baker, mayfield who his whole team is, Injured hurts And.

268
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Speaker 3: Goff one of those dudes is gonna win this game

269
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Speaker 3: in a primetime spot right, now The eagles are fifty

270
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Speaker 3: two percent AT ftn to be a top two. Seed

271
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Speaker 3: The lions are forty. Percent and whoever wins this, game

272
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Speaker 3: that's gonna go up a. Lot so whoever you like

273
00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:44,880
Speaker 3: to win the, game you should bet them as AN mvp.

274
00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:47,800
Speaker 3: Ticket and right, Now Jared goff is on pace for

275
00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:51,559
Speaker 3: forty two hundred, yards thirty eight touchdowns and six. Interceptions

276
00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:54,800
Speaker 3: that is AN mvp type. Line he's playing better now

277
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Speaker 3: With Dan campbell calling the. Shots we Got thanksgiving against

278
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Speaker 3: The packers for GoF we Got thursday A cowboys. Game

279
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Speaker 3: we got a Late Lions rams game that everyone will be,

280
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,840
Speaker 3: watching a new game of the. Week we Got lions

281
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Speaker 3: On christmas against The. Vikings there are gonna be a

282
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Speaker 3: lot OF mvp spots For Jared goff to show up

283
00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:15,079
Speaker 3: while we're all, Watching and if they make a run

284
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Speaker 3: at the one, SEAT i think he's won over people

285
00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:21,000
Speaker 3: enough to get a little credit now GoF it's thirty to.

286
00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:23,599
Speaker 3: One i'm not calling my shot AS, mvp BUT i

287
00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:26,040
Speaker 3: think it's the right ticket to add in this. Matchup

288
00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:31,640
Speaker 3: So lions plus Three lions Alt Jared GOFF Mvp Sunday.

289
00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:33,319
Speaker 3: Night that's where we're gonna start and that's where we'll.

290
00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:37,160
Speaker 2: FINISH i like ninety five percent of. That the only

291
00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:39,560
Speaker 2: THING i didn't like about what she, said, like could

292
00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:43,080
Speaker 2: you imagine what the internet would look like If Jalen

293
00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:45,839
Speaker 2: hurts ended up with THE mvp at the end of

294
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Speaker 2: the season based off of everything that's happened so, FAR

295
00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:51,760
Speaker 2: i just don't see any way given this, scenario like

296
00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,600
Speaker 2: we're bashing the touch, push the there's you, KNOW Dj

297
00:13:54,720 --> 00:13:57,880
Speaker 2: brown's not doing anything in. That it's just there's a

298
00:13:57,880 --> 00:13:59,960
Speaker 2: lot of. OBSTACLES i feel Like Jared, GOFF i think

299
00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,280
Speaker 2: is a complete right read and given the, SCENARIO i

300
00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:05,640
Speaker 2: was looking at his primetime games coming up as, well

301
00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:07,680
Speaker 2: like lots of opportunities to show up and if you

302
00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:10,079
Speaker 2: look at the numbers this year really. GOOD i want

303
00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:12,680
Speaker 2: to debunk one theory as, well because you had mentioned

304
00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:14,720
Speaker 2: this AND i looked it. Up So Jerry goff And

305
00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:17,240
Speaker 2: Dan campbell and this according to Bet labs when you

306
00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:19,440
Speaker 2: look at win, Data so if they've played an outdoors

307
00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:22,640
Speaker 2: game with ten plus mile an, hour wins nine times

308
00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,040
Speaker 2: as a, duo and that is what we are slated

309
00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:28,040
Speaker 2: for this weekend In. Philadelphia they're five and four straight

310
00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:29,920
Speaker 2: up in ats in those. Games but to, me more,

311
00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:33,880
Speaker 2: importantly WHEN i dug in eleven passing, touchdowns three picks

312
00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:37,360
Speaker 2: and a sixty seven percent completion percentage FOR GoF in those,

313
00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,360
Speaker 2: Games so to, ME i think there's a little bit of.

314
00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:42,400
Speaker 2: That like we see some, fumbles we see some bad

315
00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:47,040
Speaker 2: off talget, throws but overall played pretty well and usually

316
00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:50,320
Speaker 2: those outdoor games and wind like tougher games as. Well

317
00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:53,160
Speaker 2: like it's In, chicago it's you, know different. Spots SO

318
00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:55,240
Speaker 2: i like. IT i like The.

319
00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:58,640
Speaker 3: Lions, yeah AND i believe The lions don't play outdoors

320
00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:01,440
Speaker 3: again until week, eighteen after all those other games In,

321
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Speaker 3: chicago as you, mentioned that will be the last. One so,

322
00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,360
Speaker 3: Yeah i'm with. YOU i think we know HOW i

323
00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,440
Speaker 3: feel About Jalen. HURTS i will say this, though it

324
00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:13,080
Speaker 3: matters more to me what is to come And hurts right,

325
00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:14,760
Speaker 3: now even as poorly.

326
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Speaker 1: As it feels like he's. Played if you add in the.

327
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Speaker 3: Rushing he's on pace right now for four thousand yards,

328
00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:24,800
Speaker 3: combined forty touchdowns, combined and two, interceptions and that's. Now

329
00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,200
Speaker 3: and if they get better and his numbers have been

330
00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:29,640
Speaker 3: better the last month As patula's kind of settled in

331
00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:34,160
Speaker 3: the offense like, that forty five and forty five, touchdowns

332
00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:37,600
Speaker 3: those ARE mvp Numbers and we would feel differently two

333
00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:40,080
Speaker 3: months from now when voting happens than we do right.

334
00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:42,840
Speaker 3: Now that's how you have to bet, futures is what

335
00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:47,040
Speaker 3: what could happen. Later so that's, look nobody hates On

336
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:48,680
Speaker 3: Jalen hurts more THAN i. DO i don't know if

337
00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,040
Speaker 3: it's him Or lamar THAT i dump on, More BUT

338
00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:54,520
Speaker 3: i think in a in a world where there's not

339
00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:58,400
Speaker 3: a dominant team and there's not a DOMINANT mvp stepping,

340
00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,000
Speaker 3: forward And i'm kind of the opinion that THE afc

341
00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:04,760
Speaker 3: Teams drake May Balwin, knicks, whoever the guys are of

342
00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:06,440
Speaker 3: the top, teams that they're going to fade back and

343
00:16:06,480 --> 00:16:08,880
Speaker 3: get like four or five. Losses if we get a

344
00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,800
Speaker 3: king in THE, nfc that's like fifteen and. Two and

345
00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,840
Speaker 3: The eagles do what they did last. Year and here's

346
00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:17,960
Speaker 3: the point On hurts THAT i will, SAY i agree

347
00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,400
Speaker 3: how we feel about him right, Now but we also

348
00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:22,360
Speaker 3: came into the year just a couple of months ago

349
00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,640
Speaker 3: thinking Of Jalen, Hurts Super BOWL, mvp and at some

350
00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:27,920
Speaker 3: point if they go on a run and it's, like,

351
00:16:28,040 --> 00:16:31,280
Speaker 3: man my guys won like twenty eight of the last

352
00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,320
Speaker 3: thirty two games or whatever the number would, be that's

353
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,200
Speaker 3: going to be a stat that speaks for itself. Too

354
00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,360
Speaker 3: SO i have to take it seriously even IF i

355
00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:41,360
Speaker 3: don't like, it because that's how you have to bet.

356
00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:43,520
Speaker 3: Futures AND i think if you like The eagles, HERE

357
00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:45,280
Speaker 3: i think it's the right ticket for you to invest.

358
00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:47,280
Speaker 1: In even THOUGH i don't like, IT i.

359
00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:49,680
Speaker 2: Just can't wait for the media narrative around. That if

360
00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:52,280
Speaker 2: we're on track for that in a few. Weeks all,

361
00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:54,800
Speaker 2: right let's keep going, here which is in a game

362
00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:57,760
Speaker 2: THAT i honestly can't believe is probably the third best

363
00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:01,280
Speaker 2: game of the. Weekend really get an Amazing But, Chiefs,

364
00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:04,800
Speaker 2: broncos how are you attacking this? One BECAUSE i think

365
00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:06,200
Speaker 2: all the numbers kind of agree with.

366
00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:08,440
Speaker 3: You, Yeah i'm looking under all the way, here and

367
00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:10,879
Speaker 3: look this was our hot. Read SO i still like.

368
00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:12,960
Speaker 3: It it's under forty four and a. Half it's been

369
00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,680
Speaker 3: stuck right at that. Line that's, great but that means

370
00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:17,280
Speaker 3: we have to play the mine shaft. Now So i'm

371
00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:20,520
Speaker 3: gonna add on some mind shaft unders and a first

372
00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:22,439
Speaker 3: quarter under WHICH i think might be a new for.

373
00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:25,080
Speaker 3: Me So i'm gonna make the case kind of recapping

374
00:17:25,200 --> 00:17:29,560
Speaker 3: what the hot red Was denver, fraudulent, right Boon ennis

375
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,840
Speaker 3: has the training wheels On Sean payton clearly doesn't trust.

376
00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,800
Speaker 3: Him That thursday night, game we all had to watch.

377
00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:38,440
Speaker 3: It two hundred and twenty yards against The, raiders under

378
00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:41,920
Speaker 3: four yards of, Play bonnicks negative point THREE epa per.

379
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:46,320
Speaker 3: Play they'd no business winning that, game or The jets,

380
00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:48,879
Speaker 3: game or The giants, game or on and on and,

381
00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:49,800
Speaker 3: on or being eight and.

382
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,679
Speaker 1: Two but the defense is still.

383
00:17:52,440 --> 00:17:55,600
Speaker 3: Really good even without certain all those NUMBERS i said

384
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,800
Speaker 3: against The raiders there they're allowed even less one hundred

385
00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:01,040
Speaker 3: and eighty eight yards, allowed three point two yards of.

386
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:04,600
Speaker 3: Play and outside Of, dallas which we, Know dallas skews

387
00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,560
Speaker 3: all the Numbers browncos games on the season just under

388
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:11,120
Speaker 3: thirty eight points a game because the offense isn't trustworthy

389
00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:14,800
Speaker 3: and the defense is pretty. Good and in this matchup

390
00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:19,480
Speaker 3: Vance joseph's, defense WHO i typically against a great, OFFENSE

391
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:21,400
Speaker 3: i want to bet on that offense it's not.

392
00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,119
Speaker 1: Held, up but against The chiefs it has held. Up

393
00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:25,399
Speaker 1: they held The chiefs.

394
00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:28,920
Speaker 3: To their lowest point total both times last season out

395
00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:31,439
Speaker 3: of the entire. Season can't say did their two lowest. Scorers,

396
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,600
Speaker 3: now one Was WEEK eighteam that didn't really, matter but

397
00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:37,040
Speaker 3: in the last four times so the last two, seasons

398
00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:40,600
Speaker 3: that thirty eight from that game was the most total

399
00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 3: in one of these two. Matchups other ones we had thirty,

400
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:47,600
Speaker 3: three thirty and twenty. Seven those are not one team

401
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,679
Speaker 3: that's the whole. Score so they're averaging thirty two points

402
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:54,119
Speaker 3: a game in these. MATCHUPS i think both teams prefer. That,

403
00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:56,920
Speaker 3: FRANKLY i don't think The chiefs, should but it's unfortunately

404
00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 3: The chiefs we've got now they want long drives short

405
00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:03,280
Speaker 3: in the, game and, frankly both of these teams want

406
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:05,920
Speaker 3: that and trust their quarterback to go win the game

407
00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:07,639
Speaker 3: at the. End i'll tell you which One i'd like

408
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,080
Speaker 3: IF i was picking the, quarterback so win my. Game

409
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:12,359
Speaker 3: but we're not on the side, here we're on the

410
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:15,800
Speaker 3: Under broncos seven and three to the under best in

411
00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 3: THE Nfl chiefs six and. Three they're both top five

412
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:20,880
Speaker 3: first half under and top five second half.

413
00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:23,080
Speaker 1: Under so to the mind shaft we.

414
00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,920
Speaker 3: Go remember thirty, three thirty and twenty seven point games

415
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 3: the last couple of, years so key numbers ish on

416
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,879
Speaker 3: the way down under thirty seven and a half plus

417
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,520
Speaker 3: two forty eight under thirty three and a half plus

418
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 3: four to. Ten and THEN i mentioned the first quarter, thing.

419
00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:40,200
Speaker 1: So the stat popped.

420
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 3: Up The chiefs are eight and one to the under

421
00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:44,920
Speaker 3: in the first. Quarter here's the point total The chiefs

422
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:48,240
Speaker 3: have had in first quarters this year seven seven three.

423
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:52,520
Speaker 3: Ten that's the high. Mark seven nine seven zero and.

424
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:55,399
Speaker 3: Seven they're averaging six point three points a game In

425
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,040
Speaker 3: chiefs game in the first quarter In broncos only eight point.

426
00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:02,040
Speaker 3: Eight and that is their Offense enver is dead last

427
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 3: in series conversion rate on their first two drives only twenty.

428
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:10,359
Speaker 3: Percent so what that means is typically offenses are really

429
00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 3: good early in the.

430
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 1: Game those are your.

431
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 3: Scripted, plays, right that's the stuff that you've been practicing

432
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,320
Speaker 3: all week to get. Ready that tells me just how

433
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,440
Speaker 3: broken Bo nix is And Sean payne's trust in. Him

434
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 3: they're the worst offense in the league starting out games

435
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:26,680
Speaker 3: those first two. Drives SO i like the first quarter

436
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,560
Speaker 3: under it's eight and a. Half you can get seven

437
00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 3: and a. Half that's gonna be fine. Here we're not

438
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,040
Speaker 3: gonna end up on eight points and almost any first

439
00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:37,879
Speaker 3: quarter scenario barring safety or something like. That so under

440
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,320
Speaker 3: eight and a half points in the first, quarter and

441
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:43,679
Speaker 3: then one more mind shaft on that part first quarter At,

442
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:45,879
Speaker 3: DraftKings our, sponsor you're gonna have to scroll through the

443
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 3: menu and find.

444
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:47,680
Speaker 1: It just give me the.

445
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:51,960
Speaker 3: Zero zero scoreless first quarter plus seven hundred AND i

446
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,440
Speaker 3: just want a, slow augly slog of a game and

447
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,360
Speaker 3: let us Watch seahawks And rams while nothing's happening over.

448
00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:02,160
Speaker 2: Here, YEAH i can just continue with everything you've said

449
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 2: with just a few, Numbers like the under is nine

450
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,720
Speaker 2: and three in Bone nicks's last twelve, starts the unders

451
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 2: cash in the last four For mahomes When mahomes last

452
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 2: TWELVE Afc west starts under nine and. Three here's the

453
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,399
Speaker 2: ONE i like probably the, most when both teams above

454
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:19,440
Speaker 2: five hundred under his twelve and Four mahomes. Starts since

455
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 2: twenty twenty, two so when he plays really good games

456
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 2: under twelve and. Four and the THING i think probably

457
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,399
Speaker 2: means the most with this. One broncos have trailed in

458
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,280
Speaker 2: all ten games this, year, right so if they trail

459
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 2: against The, Chiefs chiefs are gonna run the ball a.

460
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,640
Speaker 2: Ton they're going to lead the. Clock it's like how

461
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:40,320
Speaker 2: they win. Games so if that stat continues at any,

462
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 2: point you just feel Like case's gonna milk the clock

463
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 2: and make this game a ton. Shorter SO i like the.

464
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:51,680
Speaker 2: Angler all, Right, Bengals, Steelers so a lot of different

465
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:53,959
Speaker 2: ways you could probably attack this, game but given what

466
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,879
Speaker 2: the defenses have shown this, YEAR i assume you're just

467
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 2: unloading on offensive.

468
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,920
Speaker 3: PROPS i, AM i got four guys, here we're gonna

469
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 3: take them all. Down so, yeah we're expecting a, fun

470
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 3: high scoring. Game another look windy, game so be careful.

471
00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,399
Speaker 3: There but totals around, fifty So i'm ready to win the.

472
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 3: Best i'm expecting. Points bengals dead last AND dva, defensively

473
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:18,359
Speaker 3: especially bad against running, backs specially bad against tight. Ends

474
00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 3: pittsburgh's pass defense much, better but we just watched them

475
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:25,160
Speaker 3: get demolished by The bengals in that, game So that's

476
00:22:25,160 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 3: WHERE i. Started Jamar chase last matchup twenty three targets Against,

477
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 3: pittsburgh sixteen, catches one hundred and sixty one. Yards his

478
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:37,160
Speaker 3: pace the last five games over whole season one seventy

479
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 3: catches nineteen hundred and thirty eight. Yards he's at least

480
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:42,399
Speaker 3: ninety one yards every. Game SO i was, like, Okay,

481
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 3: chase let's. Go and by the, way here's your first.

482
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 3: One chase to lead the league in receiving yards on

483
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 3: the season plus five. Fifty he's a couple hundred Behind

484
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 3: Jackson smith And jigbit right. Now but The bengals are.

485
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:56,919
Speaker 3: Terrible they're gonna be passing all, year whether It's burrow

486
00:22:57,080 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 3: Or flack or whoever it, is and a pretty inviting,

487
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 3: schedule And chase can put up some huge. Lines SO

488
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 3: i started. THERE i got my. FUTURE i went for the,

489
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,399
Speaker 3: present and books are onto. It we got to play

490
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 3: like nine receptions to get just an even price For.

491
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,880
Speaker 3: Chase we gotta pay like one hundred yards for traditional

492
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 3: over and all TIMES i would be, like, okay, well

493
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 3: one twenty one, Fifty, like let's go even higher than

494
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,199
Speaker 3: make it worth. It i'm going to pivot in this.

495
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:26,480
Speaker 3: Case to the other, GUY T, higgins who also is

496
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 3: doing pretty well. Lately four games With, flacco four point eight,

497
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 3: catches eighty one yards a, game averaging a touchdown a.

498
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:35,919
Speaker 3: Game in That pittsburgh game as good As chase, WAS

499
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 3: t ten, targets six for ninety six and a. Score

500
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 3: SO i think he can have a good game With,

501
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 3: chase or, hey Maybe pittsburgh will decide to Cover Jamar

502
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 3: chase this. Time what a novel. Concept and if they,

503
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 3: do perhaps t will be. Open so eighty yards plus

504
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,960
Speaker 3: two thirty one hundred yards at five to, one it's

505
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 3: A Jamar chase, angle but it's a pivot to the

506
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 3: prices that are a little bit lower because The Jamar

507
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 3: chase juice is so. High so that's the receiver. Side

508
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 3: that's that side of the, ball now the flip. Side

509
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 3: and you can of course throw some of these together

510
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 3: build your fun parlay if you. LIKE i Think pittsburgh

511
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 3: runs all Over cincinnati, youah real, surprise, Right bengals have

512
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 3: a lot of the most fantasy points to running, backs

513
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 3: the most rushing, attempts most rushing, yards last six clear

514
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 3: running back ones against The bengals eighteen, carries one hundred

515
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 3: and twenty four yards on. Average, Okay Jalen warren time,

516
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 3: Well Jalen warren's line is at seventy one and a

517
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 3: half for. Yardage he's only gone over that once all season,

518
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 3: now it was The bengals. Game sixteen, carries one hundred

519
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 3: and twenty seven. Yards BUT i can't get excited to

520
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 3: play just like a minus one ten on the. Line

521
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 3: he's not hitting, usually so straight to the alts here

522
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 3: one hundred yards Per warren plus three ten one hundred

523
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 3: and twenty yards is seven to, one AND i wanted

524
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 3: a touchdown as. Well The bengals allow a lot of

525
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 3: touchdowns to running back second most in the, league at

526
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 3: least one every game But. Pittsburgh But Jalen warren minus one,

527
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 3: FIFTY i can't do. That he's only scored in two

528
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 3: games this. SEASON i can't even against The. BENGALS i

529
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:11,879
Speaker 3: can't pay minus one. Fifty BUT i can bet in

530
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 3: a different. Way how about the other, Guy Kenneth gainwell

531
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 3: six carries this year inside the, ten already three touchdowns

532
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:21,159
Speaker 3: on those. Carries he's still playing about a third of the,

533
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 3: snaps usually more. Receiving but we can catch a. Touchdown

534
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 3: that's fine, too he is plus four to, seventy not

535
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:28,479
Speaker 3: minus one.

536
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 1: Fifty i'll take that.

537
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:34,199
Speaker 3: Instead Kenneth gainwell touchdown plus four seventy and again we

538
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,159
Speaker 3: gotta do we gotta do two. Touchdowns seventy five to.

539
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 3: One there's no WAY i can't play that in this

540
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 3: game with plenty of points on the. Board SO t

541
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 3: And Chase warren And gainwell let's get the shootout and

542
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 3: run it back again and get all sorts of props.

543
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 2: HERE i can't really hear anything other than seventy five to.

544
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,720
Speaker 2: One that's that is a price on a guy WHO'S i,

545
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 2: mean he could get you, know four garyes inside the

546
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 2: ten like there's AND i think the past reception inside

547
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 2: the ten yard line also a real option for. Him

548
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,239
Speaker 2: so lots of ways inside the red zone for him

549
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 2: to get into the goal. Line the stat THAT i,

550
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 2: liked AND i think it highlights probably MORE T higgins

551
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 2: and The chase. Stuff steel has allowed third most yact this,

552
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 2: year Behind cincinnati And, washington who absolutely, terrible and the

553
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 2: second most yards after catching this week five behind Just.

554
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 2: Washington so not only a whole year, thing but a

555
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 2: recent thing as. Well they're just not tackling very well

556
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 2: in the, secondary AND i think with this, one, yeah

557
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,360
Speaker 2: the chase lines are really, large BUT i think they're

558
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 2: both going to just go up and down the field

559
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 2: on this. Defense so exactly what you. Expect all, right

560
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 2: one more here before the lightning Round Carolina. Atlanta, NOW

561
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 2: i THINK i actually didn't look up the. Numbers what

562
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:51,880
Speaker 2: did they do in the thirty nothing? Game because you're

563
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 2: looking at At Rico daddle, Here but did he go

564
00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:54,439
Speaker 2: nuts in that?

565
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:57,360
Speaker 3: GAME i can't remember he did, not because it's Still

566
00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 3: Chuba hubbard season't at that, point and, frankly thirty nothing

567
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 3: game was not even a thirty nothing game on paper

568
00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 3: like it Really atlanta did not get beat down as

569
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 3: bad as.

570
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 1: That score would.

571
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,480
Speaker 3: Look, well, Look i'm gonna Go Reco Dado escalator here

572
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 3: And panthers have Been we talked like We're panthers podcast.

573
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 3: Now somehow we got back To Panthers. ISLAND i guess

574
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 3: this year they were my look ahead, here they were

575
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 3: my hot red plus three and a half take the money.

576
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 3: Line you can go back and listen to all. That

577
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 3: i'm still in all those. Things why terrible spot For?

578
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 3: Atlanta overtime no rest overseas now they come. Back we

579
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 3: now the stat sixteen out of eighteen teams coming back

580
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 3: with no rest from international game have tied or trailed

581
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 3: in the fourth. Quarter and we talked about this a.

582
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 3: Lot CAROLINA i think is better suited to be an.

583
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 3: Underdog run the, ball stop the, run shorten the. Game

584
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 3: so that's what they want to do. Here atlanta's DEFENSE

585
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 3: i think is very. Gettable they've fallen Off dvoa top

586
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 3: three first five weeks this, season league average since and

587
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,719
Speaker 3: bottom of five against the, run top five most fantasy

588
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 3: points allowed to running, backs top five yards and touchdowns per,

589
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 3: game and specifically in this. Matchup we keep talking about

590
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 3: this With carolina week after a. Week atlanta is dead

591
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 3: last ON epa per play defending inside. Runs that Is carolina.

592
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:17,639
Speaker 3: Football they have the third most inside runs in THE.

593
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:21,919
Speaker 3: Nfl their power run football. Team it's not, pretty but

594
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 3: it's what they do. Well in atlanta last four, games

595
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 3: two opposing running backs has allowed thirty two carries for

596
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 3: one hundred and sixty one yards a. Game three of

597
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 3: those four games one hundred and forty plus. Yards now

598
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 3: here's the. Key typically you asked about the game. Earlier

599
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 3: these two, Guys Rico dowdell And Chuba hubbard were splitting.

600
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 1: Carries not.

601
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 3: Anymore ricodowdell eighty four percent Of carolina's running back carries

602
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 3: the last two. Games, Okay atlanta allowed those. NUMBERS i

603
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 3: just said eighty four percent of that is twenty seven

604
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 3: for one to thirty. Five that's pretty close To Rico

605
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,239
Speaker 3: dowdell's average in his games as The. Belcow he's had

606
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 3: four games this season as the, guy twenty four, carries

607
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 3: one forty. Three SO i Wanted dowtle, props but the

608
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 3: books got ahead in. Me the line is like ninety

609
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 3: yards and twenty one rushing, attempts SO i don't want

610
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 3: the outcomes in the. Middle i'm getting aggressive. Again start

611
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 3: with the rushing. ATTEMPTS i think we just Feed dowtle a.

612
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 3: Lot twenty two carries at draftings plus one fifty, five

613
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 3: twenty four carries plus two sixty. One in three of

614
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 3: the four games where he's been the bellco he's had

615
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 3: twenty three or more. Carries SO i think those are

616
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 3: right in. Line and if he, DOES i think the volume,

617
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 3: comes the yards come as. Well he's had games already

618
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 3: this year won thirty, one eighty, three two oh. Six

619
00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 3: so get, ready we're going all the way to the,

620
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 3: top and we're starting at one, forty one hundred and

621
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 3: forty rushing. Yards remember that's the number that we're expecting

622
00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 3: from our like eighty four percent, math that's the Number

623
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 3: atlanta has been allowing six to one for one hundred

624
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 3: and forty and we're gonna go won sixty one eighty two,

625
00:29:56,760 --> 00:30:00,120
Speaker 3: hundred and those prices are plus nine to fifty and

626
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 3: then about seventeen to one and twenty five to one

627
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 3: all At. DraftKings it's a lot of. Numbers it's all

628
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 3: in the. App you can find it. There rico Dawdle

629
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 3: bell cow chew Up atlanta's defense and obviously if he

630
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 3: does all, that it's going to look good for Our

631
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 3: panthers underdog pick as well this.

632
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 2: Week, yeah this is the STAT i found on this

633
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 2: that really just kind of blew me. Away so adjusted line,

634
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 2: yards which an easy, explanation estimates the offensive lines contribution

635
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 2: to the rushing game on offense this. Year number one

636
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 2: is The, Rams number two is The, Bucks number three

637
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 2: is The. Lions number four is The. Panthers at three

638
00:30:34,240 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 2: point eight yards on the defensive, side worse than THE

639
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 2: nfl thirty, second The bengals thirty. First The falcons also

640
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 2: allowing three point eight yards on the defensive, Side so

641
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 2: basically you Have juggernaut Versus juggernaut basically doing the exact

642
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 2: same things on opposite sides of the. BALL i feel

643
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 2: Like carolina is just going to destroy them in this,

644
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 2: one and the line is just out of respect at

645
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 2: home In, atlanta AND i Think carolina is the right

646
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 2: side we were talking about, earlier the, favorites BUT i

647
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 2: just feel like it's a scary one, considering, hey just

648
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 2: lost thirty nothing Like atlanta is not going to lay an.

649
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 2: Egg but it also feels like a terrible.

650
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 1: Matchup, YEAH i think.

651
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 3: So And i've got a lot of eggs In carolina's

652
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 3: basket this. Week so let's hope WAKL dwn it takes

653
00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 3: care of.

654
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 2: Them all, right sad Cat. Island all, right let's go

655
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 2: to the lightning round herender.

656
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 3: See the, thunder lightning round the.

657
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 2: Thunder we're going To, madrid so the last time here's

658
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 2: an international game this. Year we just came back From.

659
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 2: Germany now we're In. Madrid It's Commander's. Dolphins, boy Given

660
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,239
Speaker 2: madrid our, Best but what are you doing with this?

661
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 3: One as all As i'm gonna take the favorites on

662
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 3: the international, Game so give me The dolphins minus two

663
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 3: and a. Half season long, metrics this is a pretty even.

664
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 3: Matchup it's kind of just like a whatever matchup. Right,

665
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 3: defensively twenty third and twenty fourth special teams both top four.

666
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 3: Offense slight advantage To, washington but about the. Same that's season.

667
00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 3: Long recent results tells a very different. Story Six washington

668
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 3: before that eighth on, offense thirteenth on. Defense Since week,

669
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 3: six twenty sixth on, offense thirty first on. Defense they

670
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,600
Speaker 3: have fallen apart on both sides of the. Ball and

671
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 3: while that, happened The dolphins defensively jumped from dead LAST

672
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 3: dva to. Seventh, now, LOOK i don't Think miami is

673
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 3: quite that strong of a. Defense they've gotten a little

674
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 3: injury matchup luck along the, way but clearly the better

675
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 3: defense right. Now and what's happening With? Washington guess? What

676
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 3: it's The Cliff. Cliff the running game has fallen off

677
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,959
Speaker 3: like it does With Cliff kingsbury along the, way and,

678
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 3: Duh Jade daniels is, out so you're gonna play worse

679
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 3: offense along the. Way SO i like the matchup the

680
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 3: way things are trending Toward. Miami washington's got a ton

681
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 3: of injuries as. Well Darren payne is suspended this. Week

682
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 3: Dan quinn's apparently calling plays on. Defense that's kind of

683
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 3: the panic of just how bad the defense. Is and

684
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 3: in this, matchup the one strength THAT i do like

685
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 3: About washington is the line Backers frankieluhu And Bobby. Wagner

686
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 3: But miami plays really horizontal and attacks, outside not the,

687
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 3: middle SO i think those guys are gonna be too

688
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 3: slow in this. MATCHUP i think it's actually going to

689
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:13,240
Speaker 3: be a detriment in this. Game teams that have allowed

690
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 3: at least twenty five or more five straight, games Like

691
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 3: washington since twenty, eighteen thirty seven percent ats in the next.

692
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 3: Game once your defense is that, bad it's that. Bad

693
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 3: and as allays international games Excluding jaguars take the favorite

694
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 3: twenty eight and thirteen ats sixty eight Percent dolphins two

695
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 3: and a. Half it's In, madrid we had to play

696
00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 3: a one more international game for the.

697
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 2: Year it's a it's a tough one to even, say

698
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 2: Like mariota's lost seven straight starts out right when listed

699
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 2: as a dog and road neutral games as a dog

700
00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 2: From mariota eight twenty and two first half, ats so

701
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 2: basically not going to start. Strong miami gets out to

702
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 2: an early. Lead, listen it's not. PRETTY i had trouble

703
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 2: even looking at this one because looking At miami as a,

704
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:57,920
Speaker 2: favorite you, know obviously at this point in the, season

705
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 2: given what we've, seen it's still hard to see. Stomach

706
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 2: but this, ONE i get it under a field goal makes.

707
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 2: Sense all, right let's keep rolling. Here you're looking at

708
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,960
Speaker 2: a prop with The texans this. Weekend it can't Be

709
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 2: Nick chubb because he's not getting. Carries what are you?

710
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 3: Doing, yeah let's talry what do he? Marks let's give

711
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 3: their rookie a, shot and it's we're playing The, titans

712
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:18,959
Speaker 3: so you already know the bet just gave me any

713
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 3: time touchdown for running back facing The. TITANS i really

714
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 3: Wanted houston here and it will. See maybe they'll make

715
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 3: its way into the. APP i think their defense against

716
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 3: as bad As. Tennessee that's probably enough even with The

717
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 3: titans out of the by but lots Of texans injuries

718
00:34:33,960 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 3: ut scoring this matchup last seven games thirty five points a,

719
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:39,720
Speaker 3: game and then of, course it seems Like Davis mills

720
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:41,359
Speaker 3: is playing, here and we don't really know for sure.

721
00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 3: YET i do think despite all, THAT i think The

722
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 3: texans will score some. Points titans are twenty fifth BY

723
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 3: dba on, defense and they're a lot worse than. That,

724
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 3: honestly they've had some. Injuries they're just kind of done

725
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 3: on that. Side And, houston as much as we get

726
00:34:56,200 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 3: on their, case fifteen and a half points a game

727
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 3: and four games against the top half of the league,

728
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 3: defensively twenty eight and a half against the bottom, half just,

729
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 3: fine and The titans are definitely the bottom. Half houston

730
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 3: twenty six nothing when they played them earlier this. Year

731
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 3: so IF i kind of Like houston AND i kind

732
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 3: of think they're gonna, score who's gonna, Score, well they're

733
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 3: running back against The. Titans that's. It that's the. Case

734
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 3: what he marks is clearly the guy now well ahead Of.

735
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 3: Chubb he's got two touchdowns, rushing he's had two. Receivings

736
00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 3: so we get.

737
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 1: That out as.

738
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 3: Well we get it at minus one oh. Five you

739
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 3: giving me a running, back belcow as the favorite At

740
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,279
Speaker 3: ivan odds basically against The. Titans i'm just gonna keep

741
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:37,320
Speaker 3: hitting it every week and two touchdowns plus five FIFTY

742
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 3: a little touch on that as. Well it's kind of

743
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:42,320
Speaker 3: the same old boring. Bet now we're just play With Kamani.

744
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 3: Badal last week we missed, it But i'm just running

745
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,760
Speaker 3: it back. Again gave me the running back one against

746
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:49,399
Speaker 3: The titans until they consistently show me they're gonna stop.

747
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,320
Speaker 2: It, yeah the THING i wanted to hear was like longest.

748
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 2: Rush but the thing With woody is is you don't

749
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:56,480
Speaker 2: know where it's coming, from so like you might waste

750
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 2: on one, side he gets a long. Reception the thing

751
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 2: you really like is snaps on run. Plays woody's Seventeen

752
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 2: Nick chubb five last. Week it was fourteen eleven the

753
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:09,279
Speaker 2: week before that and fifteen nineteen the week before. That

754
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:11,319
Speaker 2: SO i think you're starting to see a trend in that.

755
00:36:11,400 --> 00:36:13,880
Speaker 2: Direction and you had mentioned it last. Week what he

756
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:18,719
Speaker 2: marks twenty seven routes as a receiver seventeen and seventeen

757
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,320
Speaker 2: the previous two. Weeks so it seems like he's active

758
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 2: all over the place and facing A titans. DEFENSE i

759
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 2: think we understand all. Right next prop Here cardinals and

760
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:31,879
Speaker 2: forty nine. Ers interesting that you're targeting the tight, end

761
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:32,359
Speaker 2: but which.

762
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:34,799
Speaker 1: One, yeah that's a good.

763
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,080
Speaker 3: Point i'm gonna go With trey McBride because the man

764
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:40,280
Speaker 3: is absolutely hot right, now like he is red hot

765
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,880
Speaker 3: With Jacoby, brissett and this matchup is kind of a.

766
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 3: Mess we don't. Know it looks like you mentioned with

767
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 3: the backup, quarterbacks it's kind of looked like a Brock.

768
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 3: Purtty he might at least try to give it a

769
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 3: go this. Week he seems to be getting. Close arizona's

770
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 3: got all sorts of. Injuries harrison is, Out Zay jones is.

771
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 3: Out there are not a lot of, receivers So trey

772
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 3: McBride is kind of the whole receiving at this, point

773
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 3: and it's been going pretty. Well Obviously kyler is, out

774
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 3: But Jacoby brissette is Finding trey McBride and then some

775
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 3: four games With brissett thirty two, catches three hundred and twenty,

776
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 3: yards and five. Touchdowns remember When trade McBride didn't score

777
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 3: like all last season until the last two. Games he's

778
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:20,800
Speaker 3: at at least a touchdown every single game With. Brissett

779
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 3: if you just took these games with, him average pace

780
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:26,919
Speaker 3: is one hundred and thirty five, catches for a tight

781
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 3: end fourteen hundred yards and twenty one. Scores that's the

782
00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:32,479
Speaker 3: sort of ball he's playing right, now like all time

783
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:37,440
Speaker 3: tight end. Value so, again receptions yards already priced, in

784
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:39,879
Speaker 3: BUT i think there's still some value at. Touchdown he's

785
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,880
Speaker 3: plus one twenty for a. Touchdown you're give me a

786
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 3: plus number for a guy that's just scoring week after

787
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 3: week right. Now and we talked a lot about The

788
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 3: niners defense just very beatable right. Now not great over the,

789
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:53,799
Speaker 3: middle not great against the slot where McBride lines. Up

790
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:56,919
Speaker 3: sometimes three touchdowns the tight ends just the last two

791
00:37:56,920 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 3: weeks for the forty nine, Ers saddy mcbrid can find

792
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 3: the end zone. Again at plus, Odds i'm gonna take.

793
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 3: That and from the article of the pick six article this,

794
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:09,239
Speaker 3: week my extra point McBride reception touchdown leader on the

795
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 3: season eighty to. One he's got six right, Now he's

796
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 3: only behind three. Dudes DeVante adams has. Nine that's the.

797
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:18,399
Speaker 3: Leader that would be my pick IF i just got

798
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 3: to not have odds on. It but he does have

799
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 3: an oblique, injury and we'll see how that adds. Up,

800
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 3: Otherwise goddard And amena are the only guys that had to,

801
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 3: McBride and look at the pace he's been on, recently

802
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 3: and we don't really know When kyler will play. Again

803
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:34,239
Speaker 3: maybe not If brissett keeps playing this, Well SO i

804
00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 3: think that's a good sprinkle as. Well but for this,

805
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,480
Speaker 3: week just the Touchdown trey McBride plus one.

806
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:43,240
Speaker 2: Twenty it's not often you like the extra point better

807
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 2: than the touchdown or the pick, Six but that eighty

808
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:48,920
Speaker 2: to one with only back THAT i really like that.

809
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,840
Speaker 2: BET i think that has a legit, shot especially you,

810
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 2: know Losing harrison for a, game and If perssett keeps,

811
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:57,760
Speaker 2: playing it's only. Better how about this? One, so last

812
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 2: four games with, perseet mc has four plus targets in

813
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:03,879
Speaker 2: the first half in all. Four oh, yeah he also

814
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 2: has four plus targets in the second half in all.

815
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 2: Four so he is being, peppered no matter the, quarter

816
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 2: no matter the. Situation versette loves himself some. McBride all,

817
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 2: right let's keep going. Here you're looking at a wide

818
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 2: receiver In Brown's. RAVENS i ACTUALLY i don't love every

819
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 2: one of your. BETS i like most of, them this

820
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 2: ONE i have some, Questions so you sell, me talk to.

821
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:29,480
Speaker 3: Me, Yeah i'm kind of playing a bit of a hunch.

822
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:31,800
Speaker 3: Here so, look this is not really a game you

823
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 3: don't want any receivers on on the surface. Level Browns

824
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 3: ravens low, Total lamar not, practicing like maybe it's kind

825
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 3: of a. Slog twenty mile an hour, wins low. Forties

826
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:46,479
Speaker 3: this looks like the game to just avoid any sorts

827
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:49,760
Speaker 3: of overs on. IT i kind of Think cleveland is

828
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 3: this is a real rivalry because of the history of these,

829
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 3: teams And cleveland has split With baltimore six of the

830
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 3: last seven years with This ravens team as good as they've.

831
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:01,880
Speaker 3: Been SO i started here being, like, okay run it,

832
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 3: Back ravens team.

833
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:04,919
Speaker 1: Total over the total is so, low.

834
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 3: Just twenty three and a, half that's all we got to.

835
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 3: Do lamar every win since the start of last year

836
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:12,840
Speaker 3: twenty seven or more. Points SO i was ready for.

837
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 3: That BUT i don't, know, man the wind and the

838
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 3: weather and everything looks so.

839
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,840
Speaker 1: Bad so why in the world AM i playing A

840
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:20,920
Speaker 1: browns receiver.

841
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:24,719
Speaker 3: Prop so here's the. Hunch browns take it by a.

842
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:28,240
Speaker 3: Week during the bye they turned play calling over To Tommy.

843
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:30,719
Speaker 3: Rees so they come out last week in a game

844
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,719
Speaker 3: nobody wanted to pay attention to except. Us we had

845
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 3: the crazy escalator On brown's, jets SO i paid, attention

846
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 3: And Tommy rees he made his intentions known right off the.

847
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:43,359
Speaker 3: Bat first half in that, game The browns through twenty five,

848
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 3: Passes eleven of twenty five went To Jerry, Judy AND

849
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 3: i Think Jerry judy is the guy where he's not

850
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 3: done much this, season but we know how good he

851
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 3: was last. Season AND i Think reese is, saying, look

852
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 3: we don't have a lot of talent on, offense but

853
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 3: we do Have Jerry, gum let's go to.

854
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:02,040
Speaker 1: Him So i'm gonna take some props on.

855
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 3: Him he had five, catches sixty six yards and a

856
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:09,840
Speaker 3: score just at halftime in that. Game and The ravens

857
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 3: are beatable by. Receivers they allow the fourth most receiving

858
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:16,760
Speaker 3: points To, fantasy second most receptions per, game almost fourteen

859
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 3: to opposing. Receivers and even as quiet As judy's been

860
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 3: five of nine games over, half he's still at forty three.

861
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 3: Yards we're getting thirty nine and a. Half that's the.

862
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 3: Line we just, need really forty yards From Jerry. Judy

863
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 3: it's so low That i'm not gonna go crazy on

864
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,720
Speaker 3: the escalators for all the reasons we've, said but sixty.

865
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 3: Yards he's only done that twice this, year but he's

866
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 3: done it over half of his last nineteen games on this.

867
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 3: Team sixty is plus two forty three at, DraftKings and

868
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:47,279
Speaker 3: then six. Catches he's done that in almost half of

869
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 3: the last eighteen. Games, importantly he ended UP i think

870
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 3: with like thirteen targets last. Week in games with double

871
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 3: digit targets that, stretch seven of eight he got at

872
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 3: least six. Catches so six catches plus three fifth d

873
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:01,360
Speaker 3: is the top of the.

874
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 1: Escalator it's a mini.

875
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,839
Speaker 3: Escalator six catches sixty yards isn't even a good game

876
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 3: that we'll talk about her notice On, sunday but we

877
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:10,240
Speaker 3: will if it hits our escalator along the way.

878
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:13,359
Speaker 2: For A browns wide, receiver that's an, Escalator i'll say

879
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 2: that that's. TRUE i will say. This so you made the.

880
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:19,479
Speaker 2: Point there's a positive a negative. Here the positive The

881
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:23,120
Speaker 2: ravens are like twenty fifty vo wa versus number one wide.

882
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:26,840
Speaker 2: Receivers they tend to struggle even in pass attempts yards

883
00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 2: like they they have been beat this. Year the thing

884
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 2: here is WHERE i had some, hesitation And i'm just

885
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 2: curious your thought here before we move. On so catchable target,

886
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:38,680
Speaker 2: Rate So judy's been terrible all, year but mostly first

887
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 2: four weeks he was sixty three percent when he Had flacco's.

888
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 2: Quarterback you Get gabriel in week, five it's down to

889
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 2: fifty two point eight. Percent that's basically half of his

890
00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:52,720
Speaker 2: targets aren't catchable Since, jue Since gabriel has been the starting.

891
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 2: Quarterback and if you look full, season it's fifty seven

892
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 2: point eight, percent one hundred and seventy second in THE.

893
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:01,720
Speaker 2: Nfl seventy seven one point eight percent just for reference

894
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:04,919
Speaker 2: is the, median so just looking middle of the. Pack

895
00:43:05,280 --> 00:43:07,799
Speaker 2: so my thing is This, judy based off of what

896
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:10,320
Speaker 2: you saw With, reese completely like he is going to

897
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 2: be the focal. Point he just is only being able

898
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 2: to catch half of his. Targets is such a crazy

899
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 2: stat and we see what we've got From. Gabriel people

900
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 2: are talking about other quarterbacks, there but he's got to

901
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 2: be able to see the ball to. Catch it's that

902
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,880
Speaker 2: stat just kind of scared. Me but there's lots of

903
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:28,440
Speaker 2: positives and negatives, here So i'm honestly looking forward to.

904
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 2: It and the fact that line is so low especially

905
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 2: for a number one wide receiver in a, game you

906
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 2: expect them to be. Trailing. Like there's just lots of

907
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 2: positives and negatives. Here really. Fascinating let's keep going. Here

908
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:44,319
Speaker 2: so this is a prop not on the board right,

909
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,880
Speaker 2: now but between you and, ME i love it as,

910
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:49,439
Speaker 2: Well SO i think we're both waiting for it to pop.

911
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:52,759
Speaker 2: Up you start with, it AND i Think i'll kind

912
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 2: of book it with a. Stat.

913
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:58,520
Speaker 3: Yeah so last week we tried The Kenneth locker rushing attempts,

914
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 3: Escalator So i'm going to run back that idea And

915
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:03,640
Speaker 3: i'm gonna do it With Josh jacobs this, Week packers

916
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 3: rushing escalator at The. Giants So packers are gonna pick.

917
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:10,840
Speaker 3: Six it's it's a good. MATCHUP i think for The.

918
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:14,840
Speaker 3: Packers jamis makes them more, volatile but it's high pressure

919
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 3: from pressure rate from Green. Bay they don't allow a

920
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:21,279
Speaker 3: lot of. Explosives it's another very windy. GAME i only

921
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 3: that sets up well For. JAMIS i think it accidentally

922
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 3: does set up well for Green. Bay we're all very

923
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:29,120
Speaker 3: frustrated with this team because they keep, run, run running

924
00:44:29,160 --> 00:44:31,719
Speaker 3: all the, time but The giants are who you want

925
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 3: to do that. Against they're worse in the league RUN

926
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 3: dvoa and RUSHING epa per. Play, defensively this is the

927
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 3: team if you're gonna have a stupid game, plan just

928
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 3: run all night. Long this is the team to accidentally

929
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 3: be good at doing that against Only like With Kenneth,

930
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 3: WALKER i trust you to, run but not to necessarily

931
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:53,280
Speaker 3: be good at. It Elton jenkins is out the. Center

932
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,880
Speaker 3: Tucker kraft being out is a. Problem packers have the

933
00:44:56,920 --> 00:44:59,359
Speaker 3: third or worst rushing yards over expectation on running back

934
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 3: hereries this year minus sixty nine on the.

935
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 1: Season that is not.

936
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 3: Nice jacobs is physical and he's gonna pound the, rock

937
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:09,720
Speaker 3: but he's not real. Explosive SO i kind of wanted yards.

938
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 3: Here but IF i get like twenty, carries how many

939
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 3: yards AM i going to? Get because part of the thing,

940
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:17,960
Speaker 3: too where we don't have to worry With Kenneth. Walker

941
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 3: last week we talked, about, well how much Is sherburne

942
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 3: going to get in the?

943
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 1: Way Green? Bay there's nobody in the.

944
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:26,719
Speaker 3: Way jacob's ninety two percent of expected fantasy points last.

945
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 3: Week he's off the injury port, now which is. Important

946
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:32,239
Speaker 3: week seven to, nine he played fifty six percent of

947
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 3: the snaps fourteen carries fifteen yards a. Game outside of

948
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:39,400
Speaker 3: those weeks when he had the cap injury, designation twenty.

949
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 1: Carries up from.

950
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:43,640
Speaker 3: Fourteen, however seventy two yards a game twenty for seventy

951
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 3: two is not, great my, Friend so TWENTY i like seventy.

952
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 1: TWO i.

953
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:51,240
Speaker 3: Don't The giants do allow a ton of rushing yards

954
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:53,840
Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty a. Game they've allowed eight games

955
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:55,840
Speaker 3: of eighty yards or. More they've allowed a touchdown to

956
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:58,719
Speaker 3: ten running. BACKS i looked at all, that but the

957
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:00,160
Speaker 3: THING i trust most is the.

958
00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:01,080
Speaker 1: Volume they have.

959
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:04,279
Speaker 3: Allowed eighteen rushing attempts by a running back in eight

960
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 3: of their ten, games average twenty and a, half AND

961
00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:09,200
Speaker 3: i think that's kind of what we're gonna get From. Jacobs,

962
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 3: so like you, said no lines, yet it was sixteen

963
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:15,320
Speaker 3: and a half last. WEEK i expect bumping a couple

964
00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 3: this week because it's not The eagles. Anymore it's a

965
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 3: game where you expect to. Run but when they come

966
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:23,839
Speaker 3: out watch the App i'll probably look at like an

967
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:28,840
Speaker 3: eighteen twenty twenty four carries escalator For, jacobs AND i

968
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:32,200
Speaker 3: just want to pound the rock and Probably Green bay

969
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:32,640
Speaker 3: wins that.

970
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 1: Way this.

971
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:34,960
Speaker 3: TIME i don't love it for them long term that's

972
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 3: gonna accidentally, work BUT i think he's just gonna get

973
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,480
Speaker 3: a lot of touches and both sides kind of expect

974
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:40,759
Speaker 3: that in this.

975
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 2: One, yeah something's got to change for Green. Bay zero

976
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 2: to five against the spread this year when favored by

977
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:48,720
Speaker 2: four points or, more and the fact that you're favorite

978
00:46:48,719 --> 00:46:50,879
Speaker 2: in that spot, again not many teams after you don't

979
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 2: cover that many, games just keep getting the opportunity to

980
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:55,239
Speaker 2: be a four plus point. Favorite BUT i think it

981
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 2: says something about the defense and the. Pedigree and then

982
00:46:58,160 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 2: you talk about The. Giants here's USh attempts last six

983
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 2: games against The giants twenty, eight thirty, nine thirty, three twenty,

984
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,480
Speaker 2: four twenty and. Thirty the question you brought it up

985
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:11,239
Speaker 2: was if you have a team like The packers who

986
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:13,160
Speaker 2: Have Josh, jacobs who's going to get all the carries

987
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 2: and it's not going to be split between two or three,

988
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:17,880
Speaker 2: GUYS i think it ends up being the bet you.

989
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 2: MAKE i think in other situations where you have swift

990
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:22,239
Speaker 2: and a nung guy like it gets split up and

991
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 2: makes a little bit more. Difficult Green bay this, year

992
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 2: forty six percent of plays they're. Running it's tenth in THE.

993
00:47:28,640 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 2: Nfl whether they're winning or, Losing they're just want to

994
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:34,239
Speaker 2: run the. Ball it's kind of What lafleur. Does AND

995
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:36,759
Speaker 2: i think you're right the lack of success they've, had

996
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:39,360
Speaker 2: it just seems to keep running the ball like it

997
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 2: doesn't matter whether they're doing it, right they just keep running.

998
00:47:42,120 --> 00:47:44,879
Speaker 2: It SO i think that works towards your favor. Here

999
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 2: so we will wait to see when that prop comes.

1000
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 2: Out check out the, app get those, alerts get Pro all,

1001
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 2: right let's keep looking. Here last prop on the. Board

1002
00:47:53,520 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 2: this one is a. Doozy it's a fun. ONE i

1003
00:47:56,960 --> 00:48:00,120
Speaker 2: think you would probably nickname this prop thirteen. Personnel but

1004
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 2: what are you doing with the?

1005
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 1: Rams, yeah So seahawks.

1006
00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:07,520
Speaker 3: Rams we said we're gonna start With eagles And lions

1007
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:09,359
Speaker 3: and end With seahawks. Rams those are the two BIG

1008
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:12,320
Speaker 3: nfc games of the. Day this is the long shot

1009
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 3: PROP i told you was. Coming so BEFORE i get

1010
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 3: to the, name let me kind of set the stage.

1011
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:19,319
Speaker 3: Here you set thirteen personnel and that's exactly. It so

1012
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:22,880
Speaker 3: the rivalry five of the last six, meetings six points are.

1013
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 3: Last so we're getting close, games two overtime, games on.

1014
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 3: There these are the top two teams BY dvoa offense,

1015
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:33,000
Speaker 3: defense both teams top. SIX i do Think seattle has

1016
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 3: a pretty big special teams, advantage BUT i think they

1017
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 3: also have a rushing the football disadvantage THAT i think

1018
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 3: we'll come into play. Here donald big game spot for.

1019
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 3: Him they've been ahead a lot of the season and

1020
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 3: they now are missing their center and possibly Grayz, abel

1021
00:48:47,800 --> 00:48:49,160
Speaker 3: my TWO ndsu.

1022
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:49,319
Speaker 1: Guys on the.

1023
00:48:49,320 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 3: Line so suddenly you Get, donald maybe under more pressure

1024
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 3: and maybe in a worse script Versus stafford IN. LA

1025
00:48:57,239 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 3: i think you have to lean rams here at, home

1026
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 3: home quarterback that you, trust and it's it's the matchup to,

1027
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:06,880
Speaker 3: me and it's this thirteen personnel. Thing if you want to.

1028
00:49:07,000 --> 00:49:09,759
Speaker 3: SIDE i think the way you play it is who

1029
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 3: do you? Like bet them for one seed or to

1030
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:14,000
Speaker 3: win THE nfc or to win The Super.

1031
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:14,840
Speaker 1: Bowl whoever.

1032
00:49:14,880 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 3: Wins this is set up well in. Futures it's kind

1033
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:19,759
Speaker 3: of the version of the GoF mvp angle for the other.

1034
00:49:19,880 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 3: Game so let's talk about the thirteen personnel and WHAT

1035
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 3: i like in this. Game sean, McVay my man is

1036
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:28,640
Speaker 3: getting his tight ends on the. Field sunday we talked

1037
00:49:28,680 --> 00:49:31,840
Speaker 3: about this on our. Podcast forty five percent of the

1038
00:49:31,880 --> 00:49:36,759
Speaker 3: plays thirteen personnel thirteen means one running, back three tight,

1039
00:49:36,880 --> 00:49:39,400
Speaker 3: ends not so much on the receivers did not go

1040
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:42,319
Speaker 3: all for My Puka Nakua props last. Week forty five

1041
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:44,759
Speaker 3: percent of the snaps with three tight ends of the

1042
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:47,040
Speaker 3: field was the second most by any team in any

1043
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:50,319
Speaker 3: game in the last, decade and they crushed with it

1044
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 3: sixty three percent success, rate twenty percent, explosives almost seven

1045
00:49:55,120 --> 00:49:58,040
Speaker 3: yards of. Play last four games of The. Rams now

1046
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:01,360
Speaker 3: forty percent of their plays are coming in thirteen, personnel

1047
00:50:01,960 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 3: comparatively one hundred and thirty seven games for McVeigh before

1048
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 3: that as a, coach eighty four plays total of thirteen.

1049
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:11,279
Speaker 3: Personnels this is brand, new and let's talk about it

1050
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:13,160
Speaker 3: a little. Bit what is the point of all?

1051
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:13,480
Speaker 1: This who?

1052
00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 3: Cares, Okay so you put the three tight downds on the,

1053
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:18,760
Speaker 3: Field you're bunching them up at the. Line you're playing.

1054
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 3: Heavy why you're trying to force the defense to match

1055
00:50:22,560 --> 00:50:25,279
Speaker 3: you with? Heavy you're trying to get last defensive backs

1056
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:28,279
Speaker 3: on the. Field in the last four weeks when The

1057
00:50:28,360 --> 00:50:32,720
Speaker 3: rams are in thirteen opponent plays base aka four defensive

1058
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:34,440
Speaker 3: backs ninety three percent of the.

1059
00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:35,279
Speaker 1: Time so it's.

1060
00:50:35,320 --> 00:50:39,280
Speaker 3: Working But mike McDonald and this is the fun, part

1061
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 3: he wants, nickel he wants. Dime that's five guys on the,

1062
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 3: field the six defensive backs on the. Field they love their.

1063
00:50:45,600 --> 00:50:48,839
Speaker 3: Corners they Got Iman, worr the rookie at. Safety they

1064
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:52,120
Speaker 3: like their. Line they don't love the running. Backs and

1065
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 3: particularly here's the REASON i worry a bit for The seahawks.

1066
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:59,320
Speaker 3: Here Ernest jones is really the only good running Back seattle,

1067
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 3: has and he not necessarily good to go. Here and

1068
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 3: running backs or linebackers, sorry are so important because the

1069
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:10,400
Speaker 3: whole thing McVay is, DOING i, think is getting not defensive,

1070
00:51:10,440 --> 00:51:14,360
Speaker 3: backs but linebackers onto the field bunched. Up then you attack.

1071
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 3: Them you attack them with four tight ends they've been,

1072
00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:20,719
Speaker 3: using And seattle allows the most tight end catches on

1073
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:23,160
Speaker 3: the season and top five in, yards even as good

1074
00:51:23,520 --> 00:51:27,680
Speaker 3: as they have been. Defensively, okay so which tight end

1075
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:31,720
Speaker 3: we got? FOUR i want their rookie pick the Five

1076
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:36,360
Speaker 3: oregon Rookie Terrence. Ferguson SO i dug into the thirteen.

1077
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:38,520
Speaker 3: Stats what are we seeing the last few weeks when

1078
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:41,560
Speaker 3: they've been playing all This we're seeing More Blake korum

1079
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:44,239
Speaker 3: more running the. Ball we're seeing Less, puka which is.

1080
00:51:44,280 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 3: Interesting he's down to like fifty percent snap. Rate now

1081
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:49,359
Speaker 3: they're way ahead in these, games SO i think that's

1082
00:51:49,440 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 3: part of. It his targets are have, though SO i

1083
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:54,440
Speaker 3: wouldn't mind if you look at some of the underds

1084
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:58,200
Speaker 3: there for. Him But ferguson first eight, games he played

1085
00:51:58,280 --> 00:52:02,000
Speaker 3: eight snaps in THE nfl to the league. Buddy now

1086
00:52:02,040 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 3: he's about a third of the. Snaps and, importantly he's

1087
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:07,319
Speaker 3: a big, dude and even though he's a tight, end

1088
00:52:07,360 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 3: he is athletic enough to get down the field end to.

1089
00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:13,839
Speaker 3: Attack Davis allen's playing, More Colby parkinson's playing. More those

1090
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:16,680
Speaker 3: guys are. Blocking about two thirds of their snaps are

1091
00:52:16,800 --> 00:52:22,120
Speaker 3: run blocking. Snaps our, Guy ferguson eleven targets on the.

1092
00:52:22,160 --> 00:52:26,920
Speaker 3: Season ten of those are qualified as long. Targets twenty

1093
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:29,600
Speaker 3: two and a half averaged up the. Target that is

1094
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:33,200
Speaker 3: a huge. Number that's Like Drew brees throwing a bomb

1095
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:36,279
Speaker 3: to a. Guy number it's double any other tight end

1096
00:52:36,280 --> 00:52:40,640
Speaker 3: in THE. Nfl and he's got five catches for eighteen twenty,

1097
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:44,600
Speaker 3: one thirty, one thirty two and thirty six yards he's

1098
00:52:44,640 --> 00:52:46,520
Speaker 3: not gonna get more than a one or two catch

1099
00:52:46,520 --> 00:52:48,640
Speaker 3: in all, likelihood he's not gonna be in the field a.

1100
00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:51,600
Speaker 3: Ton but he gave me the longest catch prop For

1101
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:55,480
Speaker 3: Terrence ferguson our tight end. Four it's over twelve and

1102
00:52:55,520 --> 00:52:59,319
Speaker 3: a half every catch in his. Career cash is that

1103
00:52:59,400 --> 00:53:03,400
Speaker 3: bet for? Us in, fact it almost cashes over twenty

1104
00:53:03,440 --> 00:53:06,000
Speaker 3: yards or more at plus two. Ten four of us

1105
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 3: five past that One seattle is allowed already this year

1106
00:53:10,239 --> 00:53:13,520
Speaker 3: eight tight end catches of twenty yards or. More let's

1107
00:53:13,560 --> 00:53:16,480
Speaker 3: make it. Nine we'll go thirty. Yards longest catch at

1108
00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:19,360
Speaker 3: plus five point. Fifty he's done that three times already

1109
00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:24,960
Speaker 3: as five. Catches and then last bit sixty yards not longest,

1110
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:27,879
Speaker 3: catch just sixty yards on the. Game maybe we only

1111
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:30,160
Speaker 3: get like a couple of twenty. Fives maybe get more than.

1112
00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:33,360
Speaker 3: One you hate to be right About, ferguson but have

1113
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:37,160
Speaker 3: it be volume rather than a long single. Play sixty

1114
00:53:37,200 --> 00:53:39,360
Speaker 3: yards is ten to, one so we'll throw that in

1115
00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:41,200
Speaker 3: the mix as. Well we know HOW i love to

1116
00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:44,319
Speaker 3: dig into these backup tight ends and find crazy long.

1117
00:53:44,400 --> 00:53:49,120
Speaker 3: Props no touchdown this, week longest catch thirteen. Props Terrence

1118
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:49,879
Speaker 3: ferguson let's.

1119
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:51,839
Speaker 2: GO i thought you were going to try to sell

1120
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:54,360
Speaker 2: us on over fifty nine and a half longest, reception but,

1121
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:57,320
Speaker 2: no it was sixty plus receiving yards in the. Game

1122
00:53:57,600 --> 00:54:00,560
Speaker 2: that a dot for a tight end is absolutely. Crazy

1123
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:03,279
Speaker 2: that that is something you just don't. See and you

1124
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:07,840
Speaker 2: had mentioned. It but thirteen plus pass snaps for four

1125
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 2: different tight ends for The rams last, week thirteen, Plus

1126
00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:15,319
Speaker 2: so they're really rolling everyone out there on all those.

1127
00:54:15,320 --> 00:54:18,279
Speaker 2: Plays So Terrence, ferguson that's what we're looking. At. All,

1128
00:54:18,360 --> 00:54:20,919
Speaker 2: right let's get to your look ahead. Now so last

1129
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:23,959
Speaker 2: week you Ate, Carolina we're On carolina even. More, now

1130
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:26,440
Speaker 2: this is a bet you're look. AHEAD i, LIKE i

1131
00:54:26,480 --> 00:54:28,160
Speaker 2: have a stat to kind of back it, up which

1132
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:30,400
Speaker 2: kind of says it don't matter when you get, in

1133
00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:35,040
Speaker 2: it's just. Fine so what's the. Bet let's walk? Ahead

1134
00:54:35,280 --> 00:54:37,840
Speaker 2: just give it a. Shot how about next? WEEK i

1135
00:54:38,040 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 2: Got mama, SAID.

1136
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 3: I got, Said, yeah we started with The, Lions we're

1137
00:54:45,680 --> 00:54:48,240
Speaker 3: gonna finish with The. Lions give me The lions minus

1138
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:51,160
Speaker 3: nine and a half against The giants next. Week probably

1139
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:53,080
Speaker 3: not to tell you too hard On detroit, here, Right

1140
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:56,000
Speaker 3: normally we are not grabbing a. Lion thus high in any,

1141
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 3: scenario but under ten, here it's eleven and a half

1142
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:00,960
Speaker 3: at one, buck AND i think it probably ends up

1143
00:55:01,000 --> 00:55:03,640
Speaker 3: close to thirteen or fourteen by kickoff because people are

1144
00:55:03,680 --> 00:55:06,719
Speaker 3: gonna want The lions. Here why because they're way better

1145
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:08,319
Speaker 3: than The. Giants like what do we need to talk?

1146
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:10,880
Speaker 3: About the dead cat balance will be gone because the

1147
00:55:10,920 --> 00:55:13,839
Speaker 3: coaching firing has already moved. Past The giants right now

1148
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,440
Speaker 3: are missing their top quarterback and running back and, receiver

1149
00:55:16,800 --> 00:55:20,160
Speaker 3: so there's not much there. Offensively and again number thirty

1150
00:55:20,200 --> 00:55:22,760
Speaker 3: two run. Defense that's what The lions.

1151
00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:23,480
Speaker 1: Do they run the.

1152
00:55:23,480 --> 00:55:26,640
Speaker 3: Football they're gonna run all over this. Defense we set

1153
00:55:26,680 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 3: it before nine straight wins by six or more for The.

1154
00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:32,080
Speaker 3: Lions well we need ten, here but that's not so

1155
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:34,400
Speaker 3: far from six when it's The giants and The.

1156
00:55:34,400 --> 00:55:36,279
Speaker 1: Lions and we talked about these games.

1157
00:55:36,280 --> 00:55:39,200
Speaker 3: Earlier IF i think The lions hang with and beat The,

1158
00:55:39,280 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 3: eagles IF i Think jams struggles against The, packers there's

1159
00:55:42,680 --> 00:55:44,920
Speaker 3: really only one direction that this line ends up probably.

1160
00:55:44,960 --> 00:55:48,359
Speaker 3: Moving so it's not super, fancy it's just a. LINE i,

1161
00:55:48,360 --> 00:55:50,640
Speaker 3: Know i'm gonna, Lie i'm never gonna be, mad just

1162
00:55:50,680 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 3: needing The lions to. Win double digits against The, giants

1163
00:55:53,360 --> 00:55:54,799
Speaker 3: AND i don't think this line will be around next.

1164
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:56,759
Speaker 3: Week So lions nine and a half against The.

1165
00:55:56,800 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 2: Giants, yeah obviously this looks a lot better with No dart.

1166
00:56:00,080 --> 00:56:03,520
Speaker 2: Either it's In detroit, indoors LIKE i could See dark

1167
00:56:03,600 --> 00:56:05,840
Speaker 2: kind of running around and making it a little. Difficult

1168
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:08,640
Speaker 2: that's just not going to happen With russ Or jamis back.

1169
00:56:08,680 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 2: There here was the stat THAT i wanted to give,

1170
00:56:11,000 --> 00:56:14,160
Speaker 2: You So detroit fifty three twenty four to one against

1171
00:56:14,160 --> 00:56:16,759
Speaker 2: the spread With goff And campbell against the closing line

1172
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:20,279
Speaker 2: sixty eight point eight. PERCENT i looked when you bet

1173
00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:23,920
Speaker 2: the opening, line it's sixty six point seven, percent so

1174
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:26,640
Speaker 2: not as good as the closing. Line so in most

1175
00:56:26,680 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 2: of their, games when the line kind of goes in

1176
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 2: their direction because It's, detroit hasn't really. Mattered here's the other,

1177
00:56:31,800 --> 00:56:34,440
Speaker 2: one when the line moves towards them minus two to

1178
00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:38,520
Speaker 2: minus four as an, example twenty nine and thirteen ats closing,

1179
00:56:38,560 --> 00:56:41,560
Speaker 2: line they're thirty and twelve ats on the opening. Line

1180
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:44,239
Speaker 2: why AM i telling you this because of course everybody

1181
00:56:44,280 --> 00:56:46,120
Speaker 2: knows that ten is a key, number so you want

1182
00:56:46,120 --> 00:56:50,120
Speaker 2: to get nine and a. Half but at this, point opening, Closing.

1183
00:56:50,320 --> 00:56:52,879
Speaker 2: Detroit if they cover the, game they're covering the. Game

1184
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:55,320
Speaker 2: and this is a situation where it's nine and a.

1185
00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:59,520
Speaker 2: Half just get get in Onto. Detroit obviously under ten's,

1186
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:02,960
Speaker 2: great but under eleven's probably fine as. Well anything over,

1187
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:05,360
Speaker 2: THAT i think you start to get, to you, know difficult.

1188
00:57:05,400 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 2: Territory so make the bet, now you'll have it for next.

1189
00:57:08,200 --> 00:57:10,880
Speaker 2: Weekend but It's, detroit so that's why we like the.

1190
00:57:10,920 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 3: Bet, yeah nine and a half is really WHAT i

1191
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:16,280
Speaker 3: would make The lions In New york, Here so obviously

1192
00:57:16,280 --> 00:57:19,360
Speaker 3: flipping To, detroit we know how invincible The lions are at.

1193
00:57:19,360 --> 00:57:21,280
Speaker 1: Home you gotta like it at nine and a half

1194
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:22,160
Speaker 1: while it's, there.

1195
00:57:22,680 --> 00:57:24,960
Speaker 2: All, right that'll do. It here on The Action hour

1196
00:57:25,080 --> 00:57:28,000
Speaker 2: podcast for our week Eleven Best bets episode presented By.

1197
00:57:28,080 --> 00:57:32,160
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1198
00:57:32,200 --> 00:57:35,360
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1199
00:57:35,400 --> 00:57:38,000
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1200
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:40,560
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1201
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1203
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1204
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1205
00:57:51,760 --> 00:57:53,600
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1206
00:57:53,600 --> 00:57:55,560
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1207
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:59,680
Speaker 2: video description or go to actionework dot com slash bet now.

1208
00:57:59,800 --> 00:58:04,160
Speaker 2: Bew we will be Back sunday night for OUR nfl

1209
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:07,720
Speaker 2: recap show that'll be live On Action hour YouTube page

1210
00:58:07,920 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 2: shortly After sunday Night Football Lyons eagles is going to be.

1211
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:16,600
Speaker 2: Fantastic thank you for, listening enjoy the. Slate good luck

1212
00:58:16,640 --> 00:58:29,080
Speaker 2: with all your bets this. Weekend let's hit them. All

1213
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:39,520
Speaker 2: Action network reminds you please gamble. Responsibly if you or

1214
00:58:39,520 --> 00:58:42,320
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1215
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