Speaker 1: Hey everyone on Pat Fitzmorris, managing editor of Fantasy Pros
Speaker 1: and Betting Pros, here to run through some of my
Speaker 1: favorite Week eighteen player props and trying to wash last
Speaker 1: week's bad taste out of my mouth. I think we
Speaker 1: are now at seventy one and fifty for the season.
Speaker 1: Still a pretty solid season overall, but yeah, last week
Speaker 1: was bad. Let's turn things around, and let's start with
Speaker 1: Josh Dobbs under two hundred and four point five passing yards.
Speaker 1: So Dobbs made his first NFL start in Week seventeen
Speaker 1: and completed twenty of thirty nine passes for two hundred
Speaker 1: and thirty two yards with one touchdown in one interception
Speaker 1: against the Cowboys. With Ryan Tannehill uninjured reserve after ankle surgery,
Speaker 1: and with rookie Malik Willis having played poorly in his
Speaker 1: stint as Tannehill's replacement, Dobbs is going to get another
Speaker 1: start here in an attempt to save the Titans season.
Speaker 1: They've lost six straits, but they can still get into
Speaker 1: the playoffs Saturday night with a win over the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: The Jaguars are twenty ninth in DVA against the pass
Speaker 1: this year. Their pass defense has generally not been good,
Speaker 1: but over their last four games they are seventh in
Speaker 1: DA against the pass. They have been better lately. The
Speaker 1: Titans have been one of the run heaviest teams in
Speaker 1: the league this year. They are running on forty eight
Speaker 1: point seven percent of their offensive snaps. I think they're
Speaker 1: just going to pound away with Derrick Henry in this
Speaker 1: game and try to minimize the burden on the inexperienced Dobs,
Speaker 1: So I think Dobbs under two hundred and four point
Speaker 1: five yards is a pretty good bet here. I'm also
Speaker 1: taking the under on Kenny Pickett's passing yardage, which is
Speaker 1: set at one hundred and ninety six point five yards.
Speaker 1: He is going against the Browns this weekend, and the
Speaker 1: Browns pass defense has been quietly excellent for the last
Speaker 1: two months. Over Cleveland's last ten games, only four of
Speaker 1: their opponents have thrown for more than two hundred yards
Speaker 1: and only one has thrown for more than two hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty nine yards, so they've basically just been shutting
Speaker 1: down every other passing game they've faced. Since Week seven,
Speaker 1: the Browns are number two in DVA against the pass.
Speaker 1: Pickett in his starts and We're not going to count
Speaker 1: the Week fourteen start against the Ravens, where he was
Speaker 1: knocked out early with a concussion. In his ten other starts,
Speaker 1: he's averaged two hundred and eight point nine passing yards.
Speaker 1: Look for him to finish pretty well below that number
Speaker 1: this week against this excellent Cleveland defense, which, by the way,
Speaker 1: has been a run funnel this year. Cleveland is not
Speaker 1: very good against the run, and the Browns have faced
Speaker 1: the sixth fewest pass attempts this season. So can he
Speaker 1: Pickett under one hundred and ninety six point five passing yards.
Speaker 1: I like Isaiah Pacheco, the Chiefs running back, to go
Speaker 1: over sixty one point five rushing yards this week. Pacheco
Speaker 1: has fallen short of this number in his last two games,
Speaker 1: but before that he had rattled off six straight games
Speaker 1: with better than sixty one and a half rushing yards.
Speaker 1: So six of his last eight he has cleared this number,
Speaker 1: and over those eight games he's averaged fourteen point eight
Speaker 1: rushing attempts and seventy one point one rushing yards per game.
Speaker 1: He is facing a Las Vegas defense that ranks twenty
Speaker 1: first in DVA against the run, and the Raiders have
Speaker 1: given up an average of one hundred and sixty point
Speaker 1: seven rushing yards over their last three games. They were
Speaker 1: completely trampled by the Patriots Ramondre Stevenson in week fifteen
Speaker 1: he had one hundred and seventy two rushing yards against them,
Speaker 1: and Christian McCaffrey of the forty nine ers had one
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty one rushing yards against them last week.
Speaker 1: I think Pachecko can top sixty one and a half
Speaker 1: rushing yards pretty easily here, so I like Pachecko over
Speaker 1: sixty one point five rushing yards. We will get to
Speaker 1: the rest of this week's plays in just a minute,
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Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the rest of this week's selections.
Speaker 1: Travis Etn under sixty one point five rushing yards. On
Speaker 1: the surface, I don't love the idea of betting an
Speaker 1: under on Etn since he's been so good lately, averaging
Speaker 1: ninety eight rushing yards over his last three games. But
Speaker 1: this is more about the Titans run defense than it
Speaker 1: is about Etn himself. When Etn faced the Titans in
Speaker 1: Week fourteen, he had seventeen carries for just thirty two
Speaker 1: years yards. The Titans have held thirteen of their last
Speaker 1: fourteen opponents under one hundred rushing yards. They've given up
Speaker 1: only sixty five point four rushing yards a game to
Speaker 1: opposing running backs this season, second lowest total in the
Speaker 1: league behind only the forty nine ers, and Tennessee's defense
Speaker 1: has just been a pass funnel all season. It has
Speaker 1: faced a league high six hundred and thirty nine pass
Speaker 1: attempts this season and only three hundred and seventy six
Speaker 1: rushing attempts, third fewest, which means the Titans opponents have
Speaker 1: run the ball on only thirty seven percent of their
Speaker 1: offensive snaps this year. Teams attack the Tennessee Titans through
Speaker 1: the air, not on the ground. I think ETN finishes
Speaker 1: with under sixty one and a half rushing yards Dereck
Speaker 1: Henry and yes, I'm hitting this Titans Jaguars game pretty
Speaker 1: hard because motivation levels are always hard to gauge in
Speaker 1: Week eighteen, but we know the Titans and Jaguars are
Speaker 1: both going to be motivated in a game that will
Speaker 1: settle the AFC South title and will give someone a
Speaker 1: playoff spot and send someone home. So both teams very
Speaker 1: motivated for this one. And as mentioned earlier, the Titans
Speaker 1: are probably going to run the ball as much as
Speaker 1: possible this week to try to minimize the Josh Dobbs
Speaker 1: effect on this game. Dobbs is inexperienced. I think they'll
Speaker 1: try to take the ball out of his hands as
Speaker 1: much as possible. Dereck Henry has run for more than
Speaker 1: one hundred yards in three straight games, and he is
Speaker 1: averaging ninety five point three rushing yards for this season.
Speaker 1: When Henry faced the Jaguars in Week fourteen seventeen, carries
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty one yards. I think he gets
Speaker 1: over eighty nine point five rushing yards this week. Jeric
Speaker 1: McKinnon over thirty two point five rushing or receiving yards.
Speaker 1: Excuse me. McKinnon has cleared this number in three of
Speaker 1: his last four games, and the one game where he
Speaker 1: missed over that stretch, he only missed by one and
Speaker 1: a half yards. So since the beginning of November, McKinnon
Speaker 1: has averaged five point seven targets a game, four point
Speaker 1: six catches a game, and forty four receiving yards a game.
Speaker 1: On Saturday Night, he is going to be facing the Raiders,
Speaker 1: who have given up a league high eight hundred and
Speaker 1: eighteen receiving yards to running backs. I think McKinnon clears
Speaker 1: thirty two and a half receiving yards pretty easily, Evan Ingram,
Speaker 1: the Jaguars tight end over forty five point five receiving
Speaker 1: yards maybe my favorite bet of the week. Ingram has
Speaker 1: just been a monster over the last month, averaging six
Speaker 1: point eight receptions and eighty eight point three receiving yards
Speaker 1: over his last four games. One of those games was
Speaker 1: an eleven catch, one hundred and sixty two yard two
Speaker 1: touchdown outburst against the Tennessee Titans, whom he will face
Speaker 1: again on Saturday nights. Tennessee has given up one thousand,
Speaker 1: ninety two receiving yards to tight ends this season, the
Speaker 1: most in the NFL. And finally, another tight end prop,
Speaker 1: Haydenhurst of the Bengal under thirty and a half receiving yards.
Speaker 1: Hurst has played seven games this season where Bengals wide
Speaker 1: receivers Jamar Chase and t Higgins have both been active,
Speaker 1: and in those seven games, Hurst has cleared this number
Speaker 1: thirty and a half only two times. He's failed to
Speaker 1: hit it in five of those games. And Hurst is
Speaker 1: going to be going up against a Ravens defense that
Speaker 1: has allowed the eighth fewest receiving yards to tight ends
Speaker 1: this season. Yes, revenge game for Hayden Hurst going against
Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens who drafted him, but I think his
Speaker 1: old team keeps him in check this week and he
Speaker 1: finishes under thirty and a half receiving yards. So let's
Speaker 1: recap this week's plays one last time. Josh Dobbs Titans
Speaker 1: quarterback under two hundred and four point five passing yards,
Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett of the Steelers under one hundred and ninety
Speaker 1: six point five passing yards, Isaiah Piccheko of the Chiefs
Speaker 1: over sixty one point five rushing yards, Travis Eta of
Speaker 1: the Jaguars under sixty one point five rushing yards, Derrick
Speaker 1: Henry of the Titans over eighty nine point five rushing yards,
Speaker 1: Jeric McKinnon of the Kansas City Chiefs over thirty two
Speaker 1: point five receiving yards, Evan Ingram of the Jaguars over
Speaker 1: forty five point five receiving yards, and Hayden Hurst of
Speaker 1: the Bengals under thirty point five receiving yards. I wouldn't
Speaker 1: issh you all. Good luck with your bets in Week eighteen,
Speaker 1: the final week of the NFL regular season, and of
Speaker 1: course we will be back with you next week for
Speaker 1: the wild card round of the playoffs. I can't wait
Speaker 1: for the NFL playoffs. It's gonna be fun, and I
Speaker 1: hope you will stick with us here on Betting Pros.
Speaker 1: We'll be back soon, friends. Good luck,