1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 2: Thanks Charlie, and again, Joe, you talked about it earlier. 7 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 2: A very busy day at the White House. We love 8 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:32,920 Speaker 2: these four o'clock events, you know, it makes everything so 9 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 2: much easier for us later in the day. But we 10 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 2: have another one coming up today when it does come 11 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 2: to the Education decision or discussion. 12 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, look, it's going to be an executive action. This 13 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 3: isn't exactly binding when it comes to eliminating a federal agency, 14 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:49,879 Speaker 3: but can be very powerful when it comes to shrinking 15 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 3: one down here and we did hear from Caroline Levett 16 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 3: earlier today putting a finer point on what exactly this 17 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 3: department will be once they're done. Remembering on the campaign 18 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 3: trail Donald Trump, candidate Trump promised to eliminate the department, 19 00:01:02,560 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 3: and even in the Oval office said that Linda McMahon's 20 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 3: job was to work herself out of a job. 21 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 4: It was a job to become unemployed. 22 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 3: That's right, and she'll be holding forth in the east 23 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 3: room today as well. But there's a different wrinkle in 24 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 3: the conversation today than we've been having. That's where we 25 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 3: start with Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall Live at the White House. 26 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 5: Tyler, Yeah, hey, Joe, Well you said at four pm Eastern, 27 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 5: that is when we are expecting, according to our Bloomberg 28 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 5: News reporting, that President Trump will sign this executive order 29 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:34,199 Speaker 5: essentially ordering federal officials to dismantle the Department of Education. Importantly, though, 30 00:01:34,319 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 5: White House Press Secretary Caroline Levett was here right behind 31 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 5: me on the White House North Lawn last hour, and 32 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:41,400 Speaker 5: she said that the Department's not going to be abolished, 33 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 5: but she did say it's going to look quite different. 34 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 6: The Department of Education will be much smaller than it 35 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 6: is today. As you know, the President's executive order directed 36 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 6: Linda McMahon to greatly minimize the agency. So when it 37 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 6: comes to student loans and pelgrants, those will still be 38 00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 6: run out of the Department of Education. But we don't 39 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 6: need to be spending more than three trillion dollars over 40 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 6: the course of a few decades on a department that's 41 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 6: clearly failing in its initial intention to educate our. 42 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 2: Students, Tyler, Did she seem to have a sense that 43 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 2: there could be some questions and some issues ahead from Congress. 44 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 2: Did she discuss that. 45 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, sorry, Julie, we are having a slate issue there 46 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 5: with the sound. But as you heard Caroline love Att, 47 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 5: there answering some key questions that the department's not going 48 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 5: to be fully abolished, but rather they were looking to 49 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:32,840 Speaker 5: slim this down. Now you asked about Congress, it does 50 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 5: appear at this moment there's no real appetite for Congress 51 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:37,080 Speaker 5: to do this. If we, just for the sake of example, 52 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 5: say that this is something that Congress would want to tackle, 53 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 5: would need at least sixty Senators in order to get 54 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 5: on board there. If there's fifty three Republicans in the Senate, 55 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 5: you need seven more. That seems rather unrealistic. But she 56 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 5: did answer a key question, which is what is going 57 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 5: to be the future when it comes to funding and 58 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 5: the education Department. She said that in this slim down version, pelgrants, 59 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 5: for example, would still be there. There were big questions 60 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 5: about how this would impact federal student law. Owns A 61 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 5: federal assistance that go to students with disabilities, for example, 62 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 5: And just to put a finer point on it, I 63 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 5: wanted to add that even with this executive order, we 64 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 5: really have already seen this White House take that unilateral 65 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 5: action when it comes to slash and slash the department already, 66 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:19,280 Speaker 5: for example last week, cutting about half of the federal 67 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:22,800 Speaker 5: workers that are already there and canceling some of the 68 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 5: releases in regional offices across the country. 69 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,720 Speaker 2: Tyler, thanks so much for being with us. Mick mulvaney, 70 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 2: former congressman, you will now join us to talk with 71 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 2: us a little bit about his Department of Education. 72 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, just getting rid of it. 73 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 7: I'm count me in. Where do you want to start? 74 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 4: As a former congressman? Can we count you in? 75 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 2: I mean in terms of Congress. Do you think it'll 76 00:03:46,440 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 2: be an easy road? Do you think they'll say, Okay, 77 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 2: it's just a dismantling. 78 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 7: What do they do now? They'll never get rid of 79 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 7: it because it's statutory and they'll never change the law. 80 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 7: So what you're seeing the administration try to do is 81 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 7: do as much as they possibly can within the current 82 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 7: executive authority. That parallel I draw Julie is back in 83 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 7: I think it was twenty eighteen when I was running 84 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 7: the CFPB. We did a deep dive on what authority 85 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 7: I had as a director and what authority the president had, 86 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 7: and we're pretty sure we didn't have the authority to 87 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 7: shut the place down and cease to be okay. But 88 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 7: we were pretty sure that president had the right to 89 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:19,599 Speaker 7: tell people to go home, had to pay them okay, 90 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 7: and the thing had to continue to exist. But we 91 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 7: could not sort of get rid of it entirely. And 92 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 7: that's what you're seeing I think in Department Education, which 93 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 7: is a dramatically stripped down version because they can't get 94 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 7: rid of it entirely because it's in statute and the 95 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 7: statute's not going to change. 96 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 3: Solon and McMahon, I guess we'll still have a job 97 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:37,039 Speaker 3: of technically this is done technically, maybe not coming to 98 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 3: spend a lot of time at work. 99 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 8: Thanks for coming back back. 100 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 7: It's going to suy. 101 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,559 Speaker 3: Of course, your history, as Kaylie looks at Chief of staff, 102 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 3: Kaylee does look it today. I can play both roles 103 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 3: the best, I think omb all of your your whole 104 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 3: resume kind of ties into your view on this when 105 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:54,080 Speaker 3: it comes to the idea of executive authority and what 106 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:54,719 Speaker 3: might be left. 107 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 8: The fact is the narrative changed a little bit. 108 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 3: It went from shutting it down to Pelgrant's and other 109 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 3: student loans actually having a home at the Department of 110 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 3: Education instead of saying putting them under treasury. 111 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 8: This is a smart development in your. 112 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 7: View, it's listen. I think they're trying to get their 113 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:13,159 Speaker 7: feet under them. I know what they'd like to do, 114 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 7: which is just blow the place up and be done 115 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 7: with it and not spend. 116 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:18,359 Speaker 8: Any with USA idea exactly. 117 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 7: But I think they're just trying to figure out, Okay, 118 00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 7: we can do something, we can't do everything we want to. 119 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 7: What's that happy medium? And I listen. I think on 120 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:30,159 Speaker 7: the hierarchy of things that conservatives object to about the 121 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,799 Speaker 7: Department of Education, the fact that are a pass through 122 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 7: for funding to the states is probably really, really low. 123 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 7: Every one of these members of the House and the 124 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 7: Senate obviously are from a state, and the state probably 125 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 7: its first or second largest line item in its budget 126 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 7: after Medicaid, is going to be K twelve education or 127 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 7: higher education. So they want the money, right, they just 128 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 7: don't want the federal interference. So I think they're trying 129 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:53,919 Speaker 7: to figure out a way to accomplish that within the 130 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 7: confines of the current law. 131 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 2: How what's the timeframe on this, Like, does it need 132 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 2: to be done quickly with the new president coming in 133 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 2: in such a short period of time saying we need 134 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 2: to do this, I want to do this. I mean 135 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 2: you've seen it. You've seen how quickly everything is happening. 136 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 7: Yeah, well it doesn't need to be done at all. 137 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:10,720 Speaker 7: I think what you're trying to see is this is 138 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 7: this I think is the private sector CEO influence in 139 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:17,280 Speaker 7: the White House right now, which I include Donald Trump 140 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 7: in that, but you also got Wick Coff and Bessent 141 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 7: and Elon Musk, which is, if you're gonna do the 142 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 7: unpopular stuff, if you're gonna do the hard stuff, if 143 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:27,360 Speaker 7: you come into your new CEO in operation, you got 144 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 7: to turnaround do the hard stuff first. And I think 145 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:31,919 Speaker 7: that's what you're saying. 146 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 8: We had a pretty robust debate before you join the program. 147 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 7: Oh I heard Nazi Germany come up when I was 148 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 7: going the. 149 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 8: Mental I did too. So let's talk about higher education, right. 150 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 3: One of your thoughts about what's happening at Columbia University 151 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:45,479 Speaker 3: four hundred million dollars on the line. You pen sees 152 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty seventy five million go poof over 153 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 3: a transgender athlete policies. The same question I asked, then, 154 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 3: is what's the endgame here? What is the vision that 155 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 3: the White House thinks it's about to realize. 156 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 7: If I had, if I had to get and it'd 157 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:02,559 Speaker 7: be an educated guess, it's just to get the federal 158 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 7: government out of subsidizing these institutions. The caller and I 159 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:07,159 Speaker 7: don't know who it was. Literally, I was in the 160 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 7: men's room listening to this because you guys have a 161 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 7: radio system that works like that, right. 162 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 8: Well, that's true. 163 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 7: I'm sure you cannot hide in this building. That's right. 164 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 8: It's our political panel. Aiashia Mills was waging in along 165 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 8: with this. 166 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 7: She's like, you know, they're trying they're trying to shut 167 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 7: down the agent the people that they disagree with them philosophically. No, 168 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 7: we're not. We're just trying to stop subsidizing it. These folks, 169 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 7: these institutions, and I'm I'm the alma mater, I mean 170 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 7: some of them are my alma maters. I mean Harvard, 171 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 7: North Carolina, Georgetown. They're not entitled to taxpayer money. I mean, 172 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 7: why do we think that they are. They're private institutions. 173 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 7: So yeah, Democrat administrations come in, maybe they throw some 174 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 7: money that way, but Republicans come in, maybe they take 175 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:45,760 Speaker 7: them away. I don't know why that is so revolutionary. 176 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 2: And this is something at this point should universities and 177 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 2: colleges even. 178 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 9: Be that surprised about. 179 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 7: No, they shouldn't. And e listen, I haven't seen the 180 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:56,800 Speaker 7: balance sheet on pen anytime soon, but my guess is 181 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 7: they can get by without one hundred and forty million bucks, 182 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 7: but they like to have it. Yeah, they would. I 183 00:08:00,760 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 7: think they're probably more concerned by the way, about the 184 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 7: tax proposals on taxing their their endowments than they are 185 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 7: in these individual contracts and so forth. I think it's 186 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 7: one of the reasons you saw Harvard dramatically expand their 187 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 7: financial services or excuse me, their financial support for students 188 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 7: this week, so that they build up a constituency of 189 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 7: people who can call Congress and say, don't tax my 190 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 7: endowment because my kids are getting this benefit at Harvard 191 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 7: or fill in the blanket. 192 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 3: We haven't spent time with you in a while, so 193 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:28,080 Speaker 3: I want to ask you about a few other things 194 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 3: happening here. I want to delighting the sixty of the 195 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 3: new administration. You might sure has been sixty months. 196 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 8: Whatever. Listen, happy spring. 197 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:41,600 Speaker 3: By the way, Spring, there's a lot going on that 198 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 3: the market is very upset about. Your market sensitive and 199 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:46,440 Speaker 3: so I want your view on this round trip that 200 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 3: we've had back to before the election, because everybody wants 201 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 3: to know what the heck these tariffs are going to mean? Yeah, 202 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 3: which ones are real? Is this about raising revenue? Is 203 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,959 Speaker 3: it about getting concessions out of other countries to zero? 204 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 8: Or trade relationship? Look at this, Mick, What the heck's 205 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 8: going on? 206 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 7: There's a bunch of different answers to a bunch of 207 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 7: different questions. You go through a bunch of are they 208 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 7: are they here for to stay? It depends, right. I 209 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 7: think the ones defending American steel and alumin and probably 210 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 7: here for a good bit. The ones targeting China, probably 211 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 7: here for a good bit. The other ones that are 212 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 7: sort of leveraged for other issues Mexico for example. You'll 213 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:19,960 Speaker 7: hear those coming on and off for the next four years. 214 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,320 Speaker 7: Adding time Donald Trump gets an answer he doesn't like 215 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:23,599 Speaker 7: out of a foreign nation. It's going to be a 216 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:27,080 Speaker 7: discussion about tariffs. I think that if we're if the 217 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 7: markets were honest with itself and they want to speak 218 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 7: candidly to Donald Trump, this is what they tell them. 219 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:35,440 Speaker 7: We get the China thing, okay, and even though we 220 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 7: don't like the steel lumin thing, we get it. We 221 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 7: understand that you ran on that. We get the Canada 222 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 7: thing has got us freaked out because we don't know 223 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 7: why you're doing this. 224 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 8: You might talk to you about Canada. 225 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 7: What's no Mexico, I get Meck you got a drug problem, 226 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 7: you got it, you got it. You got an immigration 227 00:09:49,160 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 7: problem Canada? You know you don't. You don't, you don't 228 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 7: have any of those things. So there's that that there's 229 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 7: an irrationality there that has got people spooked. And when 230 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:00,959 Speaker 7: you line that up. Listen, if you just had a 231 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,959 Speaker 7: Panama Canal conversation by itself, or a Panama maybe with 232 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 7: a Greenland conversation, you can sort of say, oh, it's posturing. 233 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 8: It's all this kind ofcept. 234 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 7: But then when you add real tariffs on Canada, which 235 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 7: which hurts us dramatically. By the way, Australia would be 236 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:15,480 Speaker 7: another one of these, doesn't make any sense to me. 237 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 7: I think That's what got the market spook more than 238 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 7: anything else. Meg. 239 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 2: I'm wonder if you you know, look at CEOs. You know, 240 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:24,040 Speaker 2: Donald Trump has so much support from the business community 241 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 2: until their bottom line is really affected. You know, how 242 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 2: long does he have to do this? And I constantly 243 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 2: hear about the uncertainty, the uncertainty and how it's affecting business. 244 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:36,720 Speaker 2: How long does he have to do this before some 245 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 2: CEOs turn around and say, this is a real problem 246 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:40,559 Speaker 2: for my bottom line. 247 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 7: I always cringed a little bit when when market leaders, 248 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:46,320 Speaker 7: when CEOs Fortune one hundred five hundred guys who come 249 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,079 Speaker 7: the over loss and say we need more certainty. And 250 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:50,440 Speaker 7: I'm like, really, that's that's what your business is all about, certainty. 251 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 7: I didn't realize that was what you know made you 252 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,840 Speaker 7: go into business, that you wanted certainty. It's an uncertain 253 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 7: world that we live in. But I think the answer 254 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 7: to your question how long the wait is that the 255 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,839 Speaker 7: next earnings report so and when they start to see 256 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 7: him hit the bottom line. I think the airlines are 257 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 7: already starting to feel. 258 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 8: We saw that in the last couple of ys from 259 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:10,319 Speaker 8: retailers as well. Retailers scare we see what the results 260 00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 8: The good news. 261 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 7: Is that the lines of communication are really good. And 262 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 7: I think that Look, everybody wants to keep the president happy. 263 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,439 Speaker 7: That that is a statement that applies across the board, 264 00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:24,440 Speaker 7: across the centuries, and across parties. Right, business leaders want 265 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:25,959 Speaker 7: to be on good terms in president I states, you 266 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 7: don't ever want to be the crosshairs. So it doesn't 267 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 7: surprise me. They've said nice things about Trump for the 268 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:32,280 Speaker 7: last sixty days or since the election and so forth. 269 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,680 Speaker 7: But I think they'll have to start being candid if 270 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 7: these policies start hitting their bottom lines. 271 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 8: You buy shares of Tesla this morning? 272 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 7: You know, well, first of all, number one, I don't 273 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:43,760 Speaker 7: take my investment of vice. 274 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:46,240 Speaker 8: From all no more. 275 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,560 Speaker 7: I just wonder how did how did next lawyers feel 276 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 7: about it? Well? 277 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 8: Did the former chief of staff? And you just like 278 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:52,199 Speaker 8: did you? 279 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 7: Was that all the like? 280 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 8: What are the compliance papers going to say? 281 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 7: Now the former lawyer in me is thinking buy Tesla 282 00:11:57,400 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 7: because Tesla goes down, I can sue the commerce secretary. 283 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 3: Let's go went on here with that though they were 284 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 3: selling Tesla's on the driveway the other day in another 285 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 3: commerce secretary put a birating on the stock. 286 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:07,319 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think the lutning thing is probably just a 287 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 7: lack of discipline, and I think he probably walked off 288 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 7: stage and his staff. But mister Secretary's like, yeah, maybe 289 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 7: I should have said that, But what I get the message? 290 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 2: I think, so, yeah, what's the later conversation right after that, 291 00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 2: the exactly what it's got to be? 292 00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 7: Ugly? Yeah, it's ugly, is not it's it's it's respectfully 293 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 7: sort of clarifying. So listen, it's not as bad as 294 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:28,840 Speaker 7: the comment. I don't think that Tim wall said yesterday about, 295 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:31,080 Speaker 7: you know, rooting for Tesla stock to go down when 296 00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:32,559 Speaker 7: the pension fund in his state. 297 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 8: Wanted to put those couple of millions down together. And 298 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:36,800 Speaker 8: I didn't know about what this dental floss. He said, 299 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 8: you'd take the logo off with the dental floss Tesla. 300 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:42,520 Speaker 3: But that's so you used to talk to the President 301 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 3: of the United States about the market? 302 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:44,719 Speaker 5: Sure? Yeah. 303 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:46,839 Speaker 3: Is it true that he's a different man now that 304 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 3: he's not actually kind of doesn't care like he says. 305 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 3: Is he watching secretly wondering when wall Street's gonna gonna 306 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 3: get line or does he see across the valley and say, 307 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 3: you know what, no pain, no gain in a year. 308 00:12:57,720 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 8: This thing's going to be at a new hut. 309 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:00,760 Speaker 7: So let me give you something. It's out of fashion 310 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 7: of Washington, DCNS. The nuanced answer going to say, I 311 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 7: don't know. 312 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 8: No, okay, I'm going. 313 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:06,720 Speaker 7: To say that it's a combination of things, which is 314 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 7: that he is a second term president, and second term 315 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 7: presidents are always different than first terms because you're not 316 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 7: worrying about running reelection, despite what Steve Bannon said on 317 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 7: News Nation the other night, which makes no sense at all. 318 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 7: So yes, you're going to be relieved a little bit 319 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 7: of the political pressure of having to run for office. 320 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 7: At the same time, you'd really like your party to 321 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:25,439 Speaker 7: remain in power in the House, so you still watch 322 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 7: it a little bit. But when anybody from the White 323 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 7: House comes out from either party and says we don't 324 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 7: watch the markets on a day, the market goes down 325 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:34,760 Speaker 7: a thousand points. What that means is they're absolutely watching 326 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 7: the markets very good. 327 00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 2: And then when you see also, and we're going to 328 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 2: talk about this a little bit later too, and you're 329 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:43,200 Speaker 2: seeing what's happening when you talk about the midterms, are 330 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 2: some of these town halls, and you know, what is 331 00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:50,280 Speaker 2: your reaction for these Republicans that do actually go out 332 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:52,360 Speaker 2: there though, and they they listen to it. And now 333 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:53,960 Speaker 2: you're seeing it on the Democratic side as. 334 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:56,960 Speaker 7: Well, and they should go out when I can't remember 335 00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 7: when the word came down to some of the Republican 336 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 7: members that maybe you cancel your town hall meetings. I 337 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 7: had really sort of dramatic flashbacks from two thousand and 338 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,559 Speaker 7: nine when I was running for Congress against the then 339 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:10,520 Speaker 7: sitting budget chairman, and here summer exactly, and the Democrat 340 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:13,080 Speaker 7: leadership told the Democrats the same thing. And one of 341 00:14:13,120 --> 00:14:15,440 Speaker 7: the reasons I'm sitting here today is because the Democrats 342 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,079 Speaker 7: were afraid to do town halls. Okay, I think it's 343 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 7: terrible advice. Go out, take your lumps. Yes, we know 344 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 7: that there's Democrat of activists in the crowd. Everybody knows it. Okay, 345 00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 7: go out. If you're in a purple district, you have 346 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 7: to do it. Anyway, if you're a red district, what 347 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 7: difference does it make go out and take the lumps. So, yeah, 348 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 7: there's a really bad precedent that we should be following, 349 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 7: which is if you stay home, you run the risk 350 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 7: of getting your teeth kicked into November. 351 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 3: Looks like that's exactly what they're doing, is ducking and covering. 352 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 3: Although I saw Mike Flood, the couple of these members 353 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 3: are still going out there. 354 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 8: Do you do a teletown all God bless Yeah. 355 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 7: By the way, that's a great question, and it is 356 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 7: a great compromise because that takes the performance theater out 357 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 7: of it. 358 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 8: Interesting. 359 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 7: I talked to Don Bacon from Nebraska and he said, 360 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 7: I'm doing all teletown halls meeting number one. I can 361 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 7: talk to more people that way. It's easier for people 362 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 7: to get to me because they can do it from 363 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 7: their house, and I take away the showmanship there. I 364 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 7: don't have to deal with the people who are there 365 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 7: to sort of put on a show for their own 366 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 7: left wileaning social media page, and that's smart. 367 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 8: No local news cameras to manage news can. 368 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 3: Still follow it well, you can still make news, but 369 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 3: you don't maybe have the grand standing to your point, 370 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 3: Mick Maulvaney with us in studio. 371 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 8: It's always a great pleasure. 372 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 3: Former acting White House Chief of Staff, of course, former 373 00:15:24,560 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 3: OMB director, co founder of the Freedom Caucus, gentleman and 374 00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 3: a scholar. 375 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 8: Great to see you. 376 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 7: It's always good to be here. 377 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 8: Don't be a stranger with Julie Fine. I'm Joe, Billie. 378 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:34,960 Speaker 3: Glad that you're with us here on the fastest show 379 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 3: in politics, this is Balance of Power. 380 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:37,760 Speaker 8: We'll have a lot more straight ahead. 381 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 382 00:15:44,680 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 383 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen 384 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 385 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 386 00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 3: Thank you for being with us on the Thursday edition 387 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 3: of Balance on Some Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 388 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 3: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington alongside Julie Fine today as 389 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 3: we keep our eyes on Ukraine. Remembering this was the 390 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 3: top story at this time yesterday, President Trump's phone call 391 00:16:12,520 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 3: with President Zelenski. We've been trying to get our heads 392 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 3: around what we heard here, including whether Donald Trump actually 393 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 3: spoke at length with President Zelenski, knowing that the Secretary 394 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 3: of State and President's national security advisor apparently handled a 395 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 3: good chunk of that call. The headline on the terminal 396 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 3: today and it's one that we thought about yesterday as 397 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 3: he referred to nuclear power plants coming under US ownership 398 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 3: Russia and Ukraine keep up drone attacks, Trump's Lensky moving 399 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 3: beyond minerals deal, and then the idea of Zaparisa being 400 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 3: run by the Americans. Is that where we're going here, 401 00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 3: Juliet's an interesting story that we're talking about because it 402 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 3: keeps changing under our feet. The drive to sign a 403 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 3: minerals deal is now apparently on the back burner. 404 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 2: Well, and it's also happening when there was so much 405 00:16:58,360 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 2: tension between President Zelenski and President Trump. So now all 406 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 2: of a sudden, everything's supposed. 407 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 4: To turn around and we're going to be doing this. 408 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 2: I just think we don't even understand Joe their relationship 409 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:12,719 Speaker 2: right now. So how do you even discuss a ceasefire 410 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:15,200 Speaker 2: what's going to happen next? When you're not even sure 411 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:17,399 Speaker 2: what exactly happened in the call, and you're hearing it 412 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 2: from a national security advisor and you're hearing it more 413 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 2: from the Secretary of State. 414 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 4: I mean to be a fly. 415 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 2: On that ball on that phone call might explain if 416 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:28,879 Speaker 2: things have improved even somewhat after their last visit in 417 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:29,639 Speaker 2: the White House. 418 00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 8: Well. 419 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,640 Speaker 3: Striking difference too, between the call that President Trump had 420 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 3: with Zelensky in a day earlier with Putin, in which 421 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 3: they spent time not only talking about a potential economic partnership, 422 00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:42,439 Speaker 3: but hockey. I mean, this was clearly and it went 423 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 3: on for many hours. Yesterday was just about ninety minutes 424 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 3: with other principles on the line, So clearly we're talking 425 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 3: about two different relationships here. The question is what will 426 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,159 Speaker 3: it lead to. Parties get together March twenty fourth for 427 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:54,199 Speaker 3: the next set of meetings. 428 00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:57,119 Speaker 2: It is interesting that you bring up hockey because it 429 00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 2: obviously shows that they have things to talk about out 430 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 2: much more so than just the current events of the world. 431 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 2: So obviously they get along much better and they have 432 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 2: a lot more in common. So it's interesting that it 433 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 2: veered in that direction. Obviously not a major part of 434 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 2: the call, but didn't make the headline. 435 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,399 Speaker 4: You said it, Yeah, I did say it. 436 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,879 Speaker 2: So joining us now is Melissa Herring. Thank you so 437 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 2: much for being with us. We really appreciate your time, 438 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:27,520 Speaker 2: Senior fellow at the Atlanta Council's Eurasia Center, Senior advisor 439 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 2: at Rosenin for Ukraine. 440 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:30,800 Speaker 4: We really appreciate you being here. I kind of want 441 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 4: to start. 442 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 7: With that with you. 443 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:34,360 Speaker 2: I want to talk to you about what you think 444 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:38,680 Speaker 2: the relationship are is between President Zelenski and President Trump 445 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 2: now and what Joe called the contrast with putin Julie. 446 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:46,080 Speaker 4: It's great to be here, So the relationship is changing. 447 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,800 Speaker 10: It doesn't take much to remember that horrible meeting on 448 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:53,400 Speaker 10: the twenty eighth of February between Zelensky, the shout off 449 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:55,679 Speaker 10: right between Zelensky and Trump. 450 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:59,119 Speaker 4: It couldn't have gone worse, and Zelensky did make some mistakes. 451 00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 4: He should have used it interpreter. He's not a very 452 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 4: fluent English speaker. 453 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 10: But I think you're right. I think you put your 454 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 10: finger on something. They don't have a natural fluency. There's 455 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:11,320 Speaker 10: not a warmth between the two guys, and I think 456 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 10: Ukraine is aware of that. So what we said we 457 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 10: didn't see very much coming out of the meeting. We're 458 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,680 Speaker 10: sort of putting the pieces together. But the Zepparisia piece, 459 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 10: the nuclear power plant piece, is a surprise. This is 460 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 10: the first that I've heard of it. I've been to Zepparisia. 461 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:28,919 Speaker 10: I can't think of any historical precedent where the US 462 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,120 Speaker 10: might run a foreign power plant in a country where 463 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 10: the territory is disputed. 464 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 4: It's just weird to be honest. 465 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:36,919 Speaker 3: Well, we've talked a lot about that plant when it 466 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:41,879 Speaker 3: was being used essentially as a bargaining chip here and 467 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,400 Speaker 3: in fact was being fired upon and shelled at one 468 00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:48,159 Speaker 3: point by Russia, pulled power from You know, this is 469 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:51,560 Speaker 3: obviously more than just a power planet could be the 470 00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 3: center of the conflict to a certain degree. Is that 471 00:19:56,680 --> 00:20:00,080 Speaker 3: the president's idea of a security guarantee that we're not 472 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 3: going to have troops on the ground, But hey, if 473 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:03,439 Speaker 3: we own the power plant, nobody is going to come 474 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 3: around there. 475 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 4: I don't think it's quite that thoughtful, Joe. 476 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:10,439 Speaker 10: So we have to remember President Trump is a maximalist 477 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,440 Speaker 10: and he likes to go into negotiations and try to 478 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 10: figure out what's possible. 479 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:16,360 Speaker 4: So I think that the. 480 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,239 Speaker 10: Nuclear power plant is the largest in Europe, so it's 481 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 10: sort of caught his eye from that perspective. Zupporisia is 482 00:20:22,359 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 10: within artillery range of the Russians, so it's pretty close 483 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:29,439 Speaker 10: and it's very dangerous, and as you said, the danger 484 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,320 Speaker 10: goes up and down. The Russians have used it as 485 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:33,919 Speaker 10: a bargaining chip. Yeah, they threaten it, they turn it 486 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 10: on and off. 487 00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:35,720 Speaker 11: We've talked about. 488 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,320 Speaker 3: Ask Donald Trump to acquire the plant. Did putin ask 489 00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:38,640 Speaker 3: for this? 490 00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:39,159 Speaker 4: I don't know. 491 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,720 Speaker 10: I haven't heard that. I think it's important though, to 492 00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 10: zoom out a little bit more so. We're in the 493 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:47,440 Speaker 10: middle of these intense negotiations. Trump talks, he's talked to 494 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,840 Speaker 10: the Russian side, he's talked to the Ukrainian side, But 495 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,679 Speaker 10: the bigger picture is important. The frontline in Ukraine is 496 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 10: not going to collapse, so the Ukrainians are not They 497 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,879 Speaker 10: should not feel like they're under pressure to come to 498 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,360 Speaker 10: some kind of bad deal right now. Zelensky was right 499 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,159 Speaker 10: in the White House to focus on security guarantees. He 500 00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 10: needs real security guarantees. You and I've talked at length 501 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 10: about NATO. It's off the table, both for the Americans 502 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 10: and the Germans. So what's the next best thing Ukraine 503 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 10: can get in terms of security guarantees. It's European troops. 504 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:18,960 Speaker 4: On the ground. But Trump doesn't like that. So we're 505 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 4: sort of stuck right now. So if what do you 506 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 4: do when you're stuck? What do you do you? Yeah, 507 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:25,440 Speaker 4: I mean really what I mean? 508 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 2: You continue to have these conversations, But when you stay 509 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,880 Speaker 2: stuck for this long, you continue to be at war, 510 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 2: what is your option, especially. 511 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 10: With the change in presidency, So the Ukrainians are going 512 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,639 Speaker 10: to continue to fight. So even if a deal, a 513 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:42,200 Speaker 10: y Alta like deal is cut between Moscow and Washington 514 00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,680 Speaker 10: and the Ukrainians are completely cut out of it, Ukrainians 515 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,159 Speaker 10: will continue to fight because this is existential, Julie. They 516 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:50,920 Speaker 10: have no other alternative and they can continue to fight 517 00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:55,680 Speaker 10: with Europe's help. So that's the bottom line is I 518 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:57,480 Speaker 10: expect this fighting to continue. 519 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,680 Speaker 3: The next set of meetings March twenty fourth, As I mentioned, 520 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,280 Speaker 3: does this move the ball? Is it going to be 521 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:08,119 Speaker 3: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin? Will there be a meeting 522 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:09,240 Speaker 3: with Ukraine at the table? 523 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 4: Good question. 524 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,480 Speaker 10: So the last story I saw was that two of 525 00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,359 Speaker 10: the principles, not Trump, were headed back to talk. 526 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:17,359 Speaker 4: I don't know. 527 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:19,720 Speaker 10: This is an evolving story and I don't think we 528 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:21,400 Speaker 10: know the exact shape of it. 529 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,120 Speaker 4: You know, the Ukrainians have learned from their mistakes. 530 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 10: I think they realized that they were too aggressive in 531 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,560 Speaker 10: Washington and they need to be more respectful. Even though Joe, 532 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,199 Speaker 10: it's really interesting I called everyone in Ukraine after that 533 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:39,679 Speaker 10: disastrous White House call, and Ukrainians from Zelensky's Porshenko, President 534 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 10: Porshenko and Zelensky really dislike each other and they have 535 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,159 Speaker 10: no love loss. Porshenko went on Aaron and said, I 536 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 10: cannot say anything negative about him. 537 00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:50,240 Speaker 4: The entire political elite felt like Zelensky did the right 538 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 4: thing well. 539 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:52,840 Speaker 2: And also at that point you do have to remember too, 540 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 2: and you remember Joe that day, I mean, European leader 541 00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 2: after lead or stood up and said we support Ukraine. 542 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:02,159 Speaker 10: Right, absolutely absolutely, And we've seen Europe wake up. So 543 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 10: Europe knows that it cannot rely on Washington for its 544 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:10,200 Speaker 10: security anymore. And we see the Germans authorizing the use 545 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:13,359 Speaker 10: of tourist missiles, we see them putting forward, overcoming their 546 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:17,200 Speaker 10: reluctance to have a budget deficit. That's a really big deal. 547 00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 10: We see Macron trying to be the leader of Europe 548 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:22,879 Speaker 10: as well. I don't think we know the shape of this, 549 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:27,040 Speaker 10: but Zelensky is trying very hard to be more conciliatory 550 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,720 Speaker 10: and tried to come up with some kind of real 551 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 10: security guarantee. So I think it's possible that we're going 552 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 10: to see Washington and Moscow come up with something, and 553 00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 10: Europe and Key have come up with something interesting. 554 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:40,680 Speaker 8: And I bet they don't look a lot alike. 555 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 4: No, I don't think so. 556 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:43,680 Speaker 8: We hit power plants. 557 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 3: But on Air Force one last weekend, Donald Trump said, 558 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:50,960 Speaker 3: we're talking about dividing up land and power plants. These 559 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 3: are the two things I guess that were to be 560 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 3: discussed on the call. We talk about dividing up land. 561 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 3: It doesn't sound like much is going to be divided. 562 00:23:57,800 --> 00:23:59,920 Speaker 3: It sounds like Russia might well take all the land 563 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 3: that it has occupied. 564 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:02,320 Speaker 8: Is that not true? 565 00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,480 Speaker 4: So let's talk about two different pieces, Joe. 566 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 10: So we have Crimea, which is the peninsula the booth 567 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 10: that Russia illegally annexed back in twenty fourteen. You remember 568 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,920 Speaker 10: they held a sham referendum. He said it's Russia, it's 569 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:17,320 Speaker 10: ours now. So the international community has said no, and 570 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,399 Speaker 10: the status of it is disputed. But there's been a 571 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 10: huge population transfer and Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars have moved 572 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:28,000 Speaker 10: to Ukraine itself, and there was a huge shipment of 573 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:31,440 Speaker 10: Russian mostly security officers, who came in and have displaced 574 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 10: them on the peninsula. 575 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,320 Speaker 4: And it's become a hardened security state. 576 00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:37,120 Speaker 10: And then we have twenty percent of Ukraine that's illegally 577 00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:41,919 Speaker 10: occupied by Russia. And Putin in twenty two said he 578 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 10: held fake referenda and said these are ours. So those 579 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,600 Speaker 10: are the bargaining chips, and Zelinski said, I'm not giving 580 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:49,639 Speaker 10: up any territory. 581 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:53,400 Speaker 4: So that's the piece that we're at now. Putin does 582 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:55,400 Speaker 4: not control all four of those oblasts. 583 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 10: There's still pieces of them that he hasn't taken. And 584 00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 10: like I said, the front line is prety stable and 585 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,920 Speaker 10: it's not going to collapse anytime soon. So I think 586 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,840 Speaker 10: we're I think Trump is sort of put he's pushing 587 00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,880 Speaker 10: the Ukrainians. Yeah right, he's put he pulled Intel support out. 588 00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 10: He's he's threatening them and trying to force them to 589 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 10: a deal. But frankly they shouldn't agree to a deal yet. 590 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:19,280 Speaker 3: Let's say that Ukraine loses Crimea and the Dune Boss, 591 00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,879 Speaker 3: does it keep the land in the Curse region that 592 00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 3: it's occupied. 593 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 10: No, they don't have much land left and Curse right, 594 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 10: they only have a tiny piece. 595 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 8: It sounds like Ukraine gains nothing in this deal. 596 00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 4: Ukraine does. I can't understand what they get out of 597 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,679 Speaker 4: this deal. They haven't been promised to anything, so you know, 598 00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:37,600 Speaker 4: so it's a negotiation. 599 00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,639 Speaker 2: It's it's a negotiation, right, I mean you think that 600 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,359 Speaker 2: they're just waiting to see if they can get something 601 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 2: else or something better for them and hold on the 602 00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:47,240 Speaker 2: front line. 603 00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,360 Speaker 4: I think that's the Ukrainian position is we will continue 604 00:25:50,400 --> 00:25:52,200 Speaker 4: to fight. We have the will. 605 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:54,719 Speaker 10: They don't have enough meant manpowered. They do have a 606 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,440 Speaker 10: manpower shortage. But I've been I just got back from 607 00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,639 Speaker 10: the front line about a month ago, and they have 608 00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 10: enough attack drones and they have enough one to fifty 609 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:06,919 Speaker 10: five millimeter ammunition. So this is massively different than it 610 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:09,480 Speaker 10: was a year ago. And this is thanks to US support. 611 00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 10: So the situation has changed. And one other sort of 612 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,880 Speaker 10: factoid that was interesting is the Ukrainians are getting really 613 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,479 Speaker 10: good with their drones. Fifty percent of the kills are 614 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 10: from Ukrainian drones. 615 00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 3: Now, was it smart in the end to provide F 616 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,480 Speaker 3: sixteen's and one Abrams tank some of the other weapons 617 00:26:24,520 --> 00:26:28,720 Speaker 3: platforms that were doubted as being a help to the 618 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:33,520 Speaker 3: Ukrainians instead of what you just talked about, shells, missile interceptors, 619 00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:35,000 Speaker 3: long range missiles. 620 00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,720 Speaker 10: So they should have provided the Biden administration should have 621 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,840 Speaker 10: provided all this kit and much sooner. I went to Harkiev, 622 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,240 Speaker 10: which is the second largest city up in the north, 623 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:47,320 Speaker 10: and Joe every taxi cab driver, every volunteer, every army 624 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,960 Speaker 10: man and woman I talked to said thank you, thank you, 625 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:50,359 Speaker 10: thank you. 626 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:51,919 Speaker 4: Please tell Joe Biden thank you. 627 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:57,199 Speaker 10: His decision to allow Kiev to use US rockets to 628 00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:59,760 Speaker 10: shoot into Russia was a game changer. We went from 629 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,359 Speaker 10: living in the shelters underground for hundreds of days and 630 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:07,080 Speaker 10: our lives are relatively normal. The security situation in Harkiev 631 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:09,960 Speaker 10: has completely changed because of Joe Biden's decision. 632 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:12,320 Speaker 8: You couldn't reach Joe Biden. I'm guessing no. 633 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:13,919 Speaker 4: I hope he's listening today. 634 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,200 Speaker 8: But I don't know if that's the case. He's got 635 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:15,719 Speaker 8: a lot to do. 636 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,400 Speaker 2: But I want to kind of return to how you say, 637 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,880 Speaker 2: the manpower in the front lines holds for now, right. 638 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:25,000 Speaker 4: I mean there, how long does it hold? How long 639 00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:25,399 Speaker 4: can this. 640 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:27,639 Speaker 2: Goo as they try to figure out and the sides 641 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 2: come together or attempt to come together and find some 642 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,920 Speaker 2: sort of agreement, and the land stays. 643 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,320 Speaker 10: Where it is, So, Julie, I have to use a 644 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,280 Speaker 10: lot of ifs, and I know that journalists don't like 645 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 10: it when I put conditions in. But if US continues 646 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 10: to allow Ukraine to have INTEL support, which is a 647 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,560 Speaker 10: big if Ukraine can last to at least this summer. 648 00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 10: I don't expect another package of assistance though from Congress. 649 00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 2: Well, thank you very much for being with us. We 650 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,119 Speaker 2: appreciate you going through reason spending all the time with us. 651 00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:56,119 Speaker 4: Mom doglause, Thank you. 652 00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 3: Melinda Herring, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Councils Eurasia Center, Senior Advisor 653 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:02,480 Speaker 3: RASUM for Ukraine. 654 00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:08,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch 655 00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:11,199 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 656 00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:14,560 Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 657 00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,600 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 658 00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:23,800 Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa, played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 659 00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:27,120 Speaker 3: Watching shares of Invidia. Well that's just any old day, 660 00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:30,200 Speaker 3: but for a whole other reason. Today, with news originally 661 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:32,560 Speaker 3: coming out of the Ft interesting interview with Jensen Wong. 662 00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,320 Speaker 3: Boys been doing a lot of talking this week. Of course, 663 00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:39,720 Speaker 3: it's the Big AI Developers Conference taking place in San Jose. 664 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:41,520 Speaker 3: He had the big keynote the other night and it's 665 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 3: resulted in a series of headlines that have followed here. 666 00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:50,800 Speaker 8: Most recently this we call this reshoring. 667 00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 3: I don't know exactly where I have to go back 668 00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 3: to my glossary on this. But Nvidia is now planning 669 00:28:55,560 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 3: to spend hundreds of billions of dollars around error for 670 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:04,840 Speaker 3: this company to procure US made chips and electronics to 671 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,960 Speaker 3: make this stuff here. Now you start thinking about the 672 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,920 Speaker 3: political implications of this. What's driving Jensen Wong to do it? 673 00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,560 Speaker 3: Remember he had a meeting with President Trump now all 674 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,680 Speaker 3: that long ago at the White House, and of course 675 00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 3: a drive here to secure investment specifically in technology. When 676 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 3: we think about AI crypto, this is something that has 677 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:28,240 Speaker 3: the President's attention, and it always has Mike Shepherd's attention. 678 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 3: As soon as I saw this story today, I thought, well, well, 679 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,360 Speaker 3: let's see what Nvidia is doing. By the way, it 680 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 3: was lower pre market hasn't been a big mover. But 681 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,920 Speaker 3: the Washington side of this story is actually fascinating. That's 682 00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 3: why we turned to Bloomberg Senior editor for Technology and 683 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 3: Strategic Industries. Shep as we call them in the newsroom, 684 00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 3: welcome back, sir. I can't get through a show without 685 00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,000 Speaker 3: having a call you to come on. You have the 686 00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:53,520 Speaker 3: most important beat in town at the moment, and well, 687 00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,640 Speaker 3: hundreds of billions of dollars is nothing to sneeze at 688 00:29:56,640 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 3: when you think about the investment from Oracle from op AI. 689 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,080 Speaker 3: Now this is the White House actually driving this. 690 00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,560 Speaker 9: It's unclear whether the White House is driving this, but 691 00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:09,239 Speaker 9: it is certainly music to President Donald Trump's ears. He 692 00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:13,000 Speaker 9: has been calling for the US to maintain its dominance 693 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 9: in AI and related technologies and really pushing for companies 694 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:22,480 Speaker 9: to do their business and investment here. Now, interesting thing 695 00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:27,600 Speaker 9: about this, Remember, Nvidia does not actually make its own semiconductors, 696 00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 9: that designs them, and it has mainly TSMC make the 697 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:37,600 Speaker 9: AI semiconductors that are we're seeing deployed by the companies 698 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 9: that you just mentioned, Open AI and others. Now TSMC 699 00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:46,000 Speaker 9: about two weeks ago and nounce c C way with 700 00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:50,280 Speaker 9: this big appearance at the White House alongside Trump and 701 00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:53,959 Speaker 9: said he was going to spend an additional one hundred 702 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 9: billion dollars on factories here in the US for both 703 00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 9: chip manufacturing and packaging, two key phases of the of 704 00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:08,280 Speaker 9: the process. Now, TSMC, of course is in Vidia's primary customer, 705 00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 9: and so now you know when it comes to chip making. 706 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,000 Speaker 11: They rely on TSMC. 707 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:16,960 Speaker 9: TSMC builds these factories here whose chips are they going 708 00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 9: to make, so it is very logical that a lot 709 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:24,800 Speaker 9: of this production would be for um Vidia. And with 710 00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 9: the amount that in Video is selling and producing these days, 711 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:34,760 Speaker 9: with hard to satiate demand for AI chips and related products, 712 00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,640 Speaker 9: you know, it's natural that you're going to see a 713 00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,360 Speaker 9: figure like the one that Jensen wants. 714 00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:44,560 Speaker 3: Would this essentially be an announcement in tandem with TSMC, 715 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 3: as in Vidia subsidizing some of these foundries, or will 716 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:49,360 Speaker 3: it in fact start building some of its own. 717 00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:53,280 Speaker 9: No, it's really just getting TSMC to produce. It's those 718 00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:56,120 Speaker 9: chips here. But TSMC was already counting on a Video 719 00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,840 Speaker 9: to be a key customer and had said so on 720 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,320 Speaker 9: the day, and a Video said on the day of 721 00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:05,520 Speaker 9: that announcement that we are looking forward to working with TSMC, 722 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:09,000 Speaker 9: but we hadn't heard a number associated with it. 723 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:09,400 Speaker 5: Now. 724 00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:11,760 Speaker 9: What's interesting about that is that it comes at a 725 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 9: really key moment for in Video. They're facing a lot 726 00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,840 Speaker 9: of questions about whether the AI boom will keep up. 727 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 11: Of course, Deep Seek, you know. 728 00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:24,000 Speaker 9: Really rattled investors back in January who started the question 729 00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:27,560 Speaker 9: about whether there would be as much need for all 730 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:30,440 Speaker 9: those AI chips. Could AI be done on the cheap 731 00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:35,880 Speaker 9: with far fewer accelerators and processors than have been needed 732 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:39,800 Speaker 9: before by the big hyper scalers. But Jensen Wong said 733 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:43,040 Speaker 9: this week several times, and even told investors as they 734 00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,480 Speaker 9: released earnings at the end of last month that look, 735 00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:48,640 Speaker 9: this is a great breakthrough, but once you start the 736 00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:51,920 Speaker 9: scale and put it to function and actual use, you 737 00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:55,240 Speaker 9: are going to need all of those chips and more. 738 00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,800 Speaker 9: The demand will keep going and they will continue to. 739 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:04,120 Speaker 3: See bants in Vidia's capacity. Or will it actually be 740 00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,959 Speaker 3: taking business that's going on in Taiwan and bringing it 741 00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 3: here to the US. Will it be in addition to 742 00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:11,560 Speaker 3: or replacement. 743 00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:12,000 Speaker 11: Of You know, that's a good question. 744 00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,680 Speaker 9: It's certainly one that authorities in Taiwan are wrestling with, 745 00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,520 Speaker 9: is they go to the nervous about this. There is 746 00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:21,560 Speaker 9: some discomfort about this. Seeing this big investment by a 747 00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:24,520 Speaker 9: national champion here in the US rather than back home 748 00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:29,840 Speaker 9: did ruffle some feathers. But the way that some Taiwanese 749 00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 9: officials and the and certainly the Ambassador to Taiwan whom 750 00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:38,000 Speaker 9: we spoke with yesterday for a print discussion, their view 751 00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:39,880 Speaker 9: is that look, this is a creed, if not deluded, 752 00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:44,280 Speaker 9: this is something that will add to capabilities. 753 00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 11: And resilience is supply chain. 754 00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:47,800 Speaker 9: We talked directly to the ambassador and we hit a 755 00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:53,040 Speaker 9: story out overnight on our discussion with him, and they 756 00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,680 Speaker 9: really were trying to sell the upside of this. Look, 757 00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:59,240 Speaker 9: it's a win win for the self governed island and 758 00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:02,560 Speaker 9: for the US in the trade relationship, and also for 759 00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:06,040 Speaker 9: TSMC and in Video because it adds some resilience to 760 00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,160 Speaker 9: the supply chain, which is you know, a question especially 761 00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,600 Speaker 9: since COVID, but also you know, as China has made 762 00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,560 Speaker 9: rumblings about perhaps taking the island back by forth, so 763 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,840 Speaker 9: it is you know, it is all connected, and in 764 00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:22,680 Speaker 9: Video also has to be thinking about that as a 765 00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:23,719 Speaker 9: potential risk. 766 00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:25,759 Speaker 3: As we spent time with Michael Shepherd here on this 767 00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:28,920 Speaker 3: day that in Nvidia announces plans to spend hundreds of 768 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 3: billions of dollars in manufacturing here in the US, hand 769 00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:37,000 Speaker 3: in hand with TSMC. What is it about Jensen along 770 00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,200 Speaker 3: that makes him different than all these other executives. You 771 00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,640 Speaker 3: think that this where any other company, they'd be in 772 00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:44,440 Speaker 3: the Roosevelt Room with the President today standing behind a 773 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:48,040 Speaker 3: podium uncomfortably. Maybe Jensen would have the leather jacket. Maybe 774 00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:51,960 Speaker 3: not to announce this as almost a political event. The 775 00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 3: one time he came to visit, they met and there 776 00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:59,000 Speaker 3: was no public facing element. They didn't meet with the press, right, 777 00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,880 Speaker 3: there was no oval event. Why does Jensen end up 778 00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:03,319 Speaker 3: being the elusive one? 779 00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,080 Speaker 9: That is a great question, Joanah's one of been wrestling 780 00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,799 Speaker 9: with too, and it's one that we've you know, our 781 00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:12,799 Speaker 9: team here in d C is confronted because he keeps well, 782 00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:15,960 Speaker 9: he's kept a low profile in Washington. He has tried 783 00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:19,360 Speaker 9: to maintain a little bit of distance. Tyler Kendall, or 784 00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:21,520 Speaker 9: colleague who you just spoke with, was one of the 785 00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:25,720 Speaker 9: actually cornered him here in Washington to ask him about 786 00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:29,279 Speaker 9: some of the export controls and other restrictions that the 787 00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:34,279 Speaker 9: company could be having to grapple with more intensely already. 788 00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:38,480 Speaker 9: But he does cultivate his own his own heir, the 789 00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:43,480 Speaker 9: black leather jackets. The presentation that he gave during the 790 00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:47,000 Speaker 9: conference the other day was really a spectacle the site 791 00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:51,000 Speaker 9: to behold and he really went through the life story 792 00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,760 Speaker 9: of artificial intelligence as we know it, where in video 793 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:57,120 Speaker 9: fits in, what its current status is, and where it 794 00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:00,200 Speaker 9: intends to go, and his call for new market and 795 00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:05,960 Speaker 9: new areas and use case scenarios robotics, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals. So 796 00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:09,160 Speaker 9: he is also trying to make sure he doesn't get 797 00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:14,040 Speaker 9: too sucked into one part of the political body here 798 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:17,600 Speaker 9: in Washington and maintains a bit of that independence. 799 00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:19,960 Speaker 3: Is just the best way we can read that seems 800 00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:22,480 Speaker 3: very careful about the way he places them. You know, 801 00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:26,040 Speaker 3: maybe just it's the celebrity executive. Maybe Trump kind of 802 00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:28,080 Speaker 3: gives them some space for being the celeb. 803 00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:30,479 Speaker 9: And they also have a big ask underway right now 804 00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:34,120 Speaker 9: with the Trump administration because in the last week before 805 00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:40,000 Speaker 9: leaving office, President Joe Biden's team left the incoming administration 806 00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:45,440 Speaker 9: with the task of deploying and implementing this new AI 807 00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:47,920 Speaker 9: diffusion role. And this is we've talked about this before. 808 00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,920 Speaker 9: This is a new rule of export restrictions that sets 809 00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:57,439 Speaker 9: limits on how many AI chips individual countries can buy. 810 00:36:57,440 --> 00:37:00,440 Speaker 9: If you're a close ally of the US, no limit, 811 00:37:00,880 --> 00:37:03,120 Speaker 9: there's no velvet rope, you can just walk right in. 812 00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:07,440 Speaker 9: Most countries actually face some restrictions on the amount of 813 00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,799 Speaker 9: computing power that they can buy, and that limits the 814 00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:14,120 Speaker 9: amount of in Nvidia chips. They're really the only big 815 00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:18,040 Speaker 9: player in this space. When you get down to it. 816 00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,440 Speaker 9: It limits how much they can sell to countries like 817 00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,840 Speaker 9: the UAE, to Israel and others, and those are big 818 00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:26,880 Speaker 9: and perhaps growing markets for them, and especially as they 819 00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,840 Speaker 9: face restrictions limiting how much they can sell to China, 820 00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:33,160 Speaker 9: they really want to be able to expand into those 821 00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,120 Speaker 9: other markets. So in video is really trying to get 822 00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:40,799 Speaker 9: the Trump administration also to alter or somehow defang this 823 00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:43,479 Speaker 9: rule in a way that would help them out. 824 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:44,160 Speaker 8: Fascinating. 825 00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,120 Speaker 3: You know, I wasn't planning to bring this to you today, 826 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:48,759 Speaker 3: but it just makes me think of some of the 827 00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:52,040 Speaker 3: rhetoric we've heard from the White House also on defunding 828 00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:54,960 Speaker 3: the Chips Act, turning that money around somewhere. That was 829 00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:56,680 Speaker 3: something the President dropped. I think it was in the 830 00:37:56,760 --> 00:38:00,760 Speaker 3: address to Congress. Actually, lawmakers of Bristle that that idea 831 00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:04,760 Speaker 3: that is not likely to happen, right, What's the reality. 832 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:09,920 Speaker 9: It's complex because actually repealing the Chips Act through Congress 833 00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:12,879 Speaker 9: would be a really tall order, and we sensed enough 834 00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:16,800 Speaker 9: opposition not only among Democrats but certainly on the Republican 835 00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:18,080 Speaker 9: side of the aisle as well. 836 00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:19,360 Speaker 11: There were a lot of objections. 837 00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:21,840 Speaker 9: They liked the idea of this money flowing to their district. 838 00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:25,400 Speaker 9: They really supported the theory of Look, we have to 839 00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:27,920 Speaker 9: keep up with China, even though we may not like 840 00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:31,720 Speaker 9: state driven industrial policy. We have to keep up with China, 841 00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:35,560 Speaker 9: which is pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into startups 842 00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:40,160 Speaker 9: and chip making and artificial intelligence. But the President is 843 00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:42,880 Speaker 9: a different view. He sees tariffs as a more effective 844 00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:45,880 Speaker 9: tool to get companies to invest here, and he doesn't 845 00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:49,040 Speaker 9: like the idea of these subsidies being handed out. And 846 00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:51,440 Speaker 9: it will be interesting to see how the Commerce Department 847 00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:56,359 Speaker 9: actually functions in terms of deploying the money that has 848 00:38:56,400 --> 00:39:00,680 Speaker 9: been agreed to already for these companies. The committe are there, 849 00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,360 Speaker 9: but the checks haven't all gone out, and they have 850 00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:08,279 Speaker 9: to meet certain requirements. And will those requirements and goalposts. 851 00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:09,239 Speaker 8: Move just in our remaining moment. 852 00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:12,480 Speaker 3: Do we have any way to measure whether tariffs or 853 00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:16,880 Speaker 3: incentives are more effective in keeping companies here in the US. 854 00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:19,040 Speaker 9: That's a great question, and I think, Joe, it'll be 855 00:39:19,120 --> 00:39:22,600 Speaker 9: really hard to measure. The companies themselves are reluctant to 856 00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:25,000 Speaker 9: say it is tariffs. But of course the White House 857 00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:29,280 Speaker 9: has been eager to claim the decisions from the Apple 858 00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:32,320 Speaker 9: decision to spend as much as five hundred billion dollars 859 00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:34,279 Speaker 9: over the next four years here in the US to 860 00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:37,640 Speaker 9: the TSMC investment that we've talked about. The White House 861 00:39:37,680 --> 00:39:41,080 Speaker 9: certainly embraced that as fruit of the tariff threats that 862 00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:42,120 Speaker 9: the President's made. 863 00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:46,040 Speaker 3: This amazing stuff. It's always a fascinating conversation with Mike Shepard. 864 00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:48,120 Speaker 3: Thank you so much, Mike, as be watching video now, 865 00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:51,120 Speaker 3: dump hundreds of billions here into the US. What could 866 00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:53,560 Speaker 3: be next? We'll keep tabs on this on a very 867 00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:56,040 Speaker 3: important week for the company, and a special that we 868 00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:58,439 Speaker 3: want to point you to on Bloomberg TV at four 869 00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:01,480 Speaker 3: pm Eastern time as we dig into what we learned 870 00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,000 Speaker 3: this week at the Developers Conference in San Jose. 871 00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:11,640 Speaker 8: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 872 00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,400 Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 873 00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:18,080 Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 874 00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:21,839 Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at 875 00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:23,080 Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com.