1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim 2 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,160 Speaker 1: Fox along with my co host Lisa A. Brahmowitz. Each 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: day we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful 4 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,079 Speaker 1: interviews for you and your money, whether you're at the 5 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 1: grocery store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P 6 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: and L Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. 7 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 1: President Donald Trump said that he had a quote very 8 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:34,639 Speaker 1: good conversation with President j Ping of China that signaled 9 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:38,519 Speaker 1: progress in the nation's trade dispute. Now, this came just 10 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 1: hours before federal prosecutors unsealed charges against the Chinese technology 11 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 1: firm for allegedly stealing trade secrets. Here to tell us 12 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,599 Speaker 1: more about the US China trade relationship is Mike McDonough, 13 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: chief economist for financial Products for Bloomberg LP, and he 14 00:00:56,960 --> 00:01:00,080 Speaker 1: joins us here in studio. Mike, what can you tell 15 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:08,039 Speaker 1: us about the information so far regarding US China trade negotiations. Well, 16 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 1: we don't have a lot of information as it relates 17 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 1: to this new development, but um, the timing is interesting. 18 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 1: You have to say right when you know when, when 19 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:21,960 Speaker 1: the economy is growing strongly, when equity markets are going up. Uh, 20 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 1: it's kind of easy to be more hawkish on China, 21 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 1: right because you know things are going well, why not 22 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:30,119 Speaker 1: you know? Um, then when you know, you start seeing 23 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 1: big sell off in the market, there's some concern about 24 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 1: what could happen with this US China relation. You have 25 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 1: a midterm election. Um, you know, I think that that 26 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:42,320 Speaker 1: probably has something to do with the timing another words, 27 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 1: President Trump wanted to give some kind of jolt to markets, 28 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: to stock markets ahead of the election by indicating that 29 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: could deal. Yeah, let's take a big step back. Let's 30 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 1: take steps step back. Right. You have to say, one 31 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 1: thing that the Trump administration has done a really good 32 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: job of is bringing animal spirits back into the market. 33 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 1: That is, people become blindly optimistic about the future, willing 34 00:02:02,680 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 1: to invest in their companies, you know, grow companies, and 35 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,680 Speaker 1: which is great for the economy. And that's been happening. 36 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: And you could track that really by the spread between 37 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,120 Speaker 1: survey based data and heart economic data. Survey based data, 38 00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 1: economic data confidence numbers. Business confidence has been off the 39 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: charts since President Trump has been elected. And I think 40 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 1: the whole Trump rally was really predicated on the fact 41 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 1: that there was an expectation for gradual fed tightening, tax reform, deregulation, 42 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:30,079 Speaker 1: and the belief that there'd be no major disruption international trade. 43 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: Uh so you go back to Q one, Suddenly you 44 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: have a tariff on washing machines. So that whole premise 45 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:39,799 Speaker 1: that there's going to be no actual disruption international trade 46 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:42,520 Speaker 1: got shaken, and you saw the market sell off earlier 47 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: this year. But then what we saw we saw a 48 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 1: deal with the EU that wasn't really a win. It 49 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 1: wasn't really a deal. It was a one one thousandths 50 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 1: of what would have been agreed upon with t TIP, 51 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:54,639 Speaker 1: which was a trade deal and investment deal already in 52 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:57,519 Speaker 1: the works. But that made people say, okay, easy win there. 53 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: This we were maybe a right originally. Then you had 54 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:02,800 Speaker 1: to deal with NAFTA with Mexico and that was a 55 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 1: fraction of what um TPP would have been. So people said, 56 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 1: we're over worrying about this, and you saw markets continue 57 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 1: to go up. But then people started realizing, wait a second, 58 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 1: it's not the same with China then. And part of 59 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: the reason is if you survey most Americans, the majority 60 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 1: would say there's something wrong with our trade relationship with China. 61 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: They might not be able to put their finger on 62 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 1: it well and in fairness, on both sides of the aisle. 63 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 1: People agree on that that there have been some some 64 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:31,239 Speaker 1: profound imbalances there. Yeah, so that that has helped give 65 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:34,320 Speaker 1: President the administration some runway to run with the idea. 66 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 1: Uh some of their ideas. Now. I don't think the 67 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 1: majority of the population would agree with how President Trump 68 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 1: is handling it, but they most agree that something's wrong. Now. 69 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 1: All of a sudden, though, people are realizing this is 70 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 1: a lot more complicated than NAFTA. There probably won't be 71 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: this quick easy win and how far could this escalate? 72 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: Most people, I think have this idea that once you 73 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 1: tear off all imports on both sides, as as far 74 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: as it could go. But that's not necessarily the case. 75 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 1: Right We've already seen some issues bubbling up in the 76 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: self China see rhetoric from UM Vice President Pence. Uh. 77 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 1: So people are realizing this could go further. Uh and 78 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 1: at some point right now, China has been very reactive. 79 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: At some point they could become more proactive. UM. The 80 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 1: issue we had the US had with ZT, a Chinese company, 81 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 1: we were going to stop allowing them to buy any 82 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:24,359 Speaker 1: US inputs that could have potentially bankrupt a major Chinese 83 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 1: tech company. The thing is, if you flip it over 84 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 1: and let's say President She had issues with some US companies, 85 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: he has a lot more firepower than President Trump has 86 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 1: on going after these companies. So there's a lot of 87 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:38,840 Speaker 1: ways this could escalate in ways that would be really bad. 88 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:40,679 Speaker 1: And I think the market is now kind of getting 89 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,799 Speaker 1: a sense of that, and those animal spirits are retracting 90 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:45,720 Speaker 1: a little or going back in the hibernation at least 91 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:47,600 Speaker 1: a little bit. And you saw some of that evidence 92 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 1: maybe in the GDP data. Mike, just quickly, when I 93 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 1: think of China and I try to research China perspective, 94 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:57,919 Speaker 1: I go to China daily just to see what the 95 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:03,719 Speaker 1: Chinese perspective is. There is nothing except a small link 96 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:07,920 Speaker 1: to anything having to do with President j pinon President 97 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: Donald Trump discussing trade on this phone call. The big 98 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 1: issue is aid to private businesses, does China need a 99 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: trade deal? China certainly doesn't want to have to deal 100 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:24,560 Speaker 1: with the headwinds of a trade war. While it's you know, 101 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 1: it's it's the leveraging agenda. We talked about this the 102 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: other day. Had a little bit more negative effect on 103 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:33,280 Speaker 1: growth than people had been anticipating, and it especially hit 104 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 1: the private sector hard because they were trying to stamp 105 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 1: out the shadow banking sector, which they benefited the most. 106 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: So they don't want to double whammy of having to 107 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:43,840 Speaker 1: deal with a trade war and the domestic factors. So yeah, 108 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 1: I mean, I think they do need a trade deal. 109 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 1: Mike McDonough always a pleasure. Your insights are very valuable. 110 00:05:49,480 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 1: We really appreciate you being here. Mike mcdonnah, chief economist 111 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 1: for financial products for Bloomberg LP, talking about President Trump's 112 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: wish for a draft of a potential deal with China. 113 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,280 Speaker 1: This comes ahead of the midterm elections, did cause a 114 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 1: pop in markets, although it is sort of different from 115 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:07,560 Speaker 1: some of the rhetoric that we have heard from him 116 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:12,039 Speaker 1: of late, so perhaps that is what markets were responding to. 117 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 1: The topic is globalization and global growth as well as populism. 118 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,039 Speaker 1: Earlier today we heard from Matt forest Or, the chief 119 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:27,359 Speaker 1: investment officer of bn y Melon's Lockwood Advisors, and he 120 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 1: says the biggest investor worry is a global slowdown. Here 121 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 1: to tell us about some of the forces that may 122 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:37,159 Speaker 1: be affecting the global economy is Barry eichen Green. He 123 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 1: is an economist. He is a historian and a professor 124 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 1: of economics and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, 125 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 1: and he joins us appropriately from Athens, Greece, whose citizens 126 00:06:50,279 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: have of course endured economic insecurity as well as a 127 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:59,039 Speaker 1: political system which many call on responsive. His latest book 128 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 1: is entire The Populist Temptation, Economic Grievance and Political Reaction 129 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,359 Speaker 1: in the Modern Era. Professor I can Green, thank you 130 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 1: very much for being with us. Do you believe that 131 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 1: we are at a historical turning point that cannot be 132 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 1: changed or are there still individual forces which can, in 133 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: a sense reclaim the promise of globalization? I think the 134 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: um existing global system, global supply chains, the global division 135 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 1: of labor exists for good reasons and are deeply entrenched. 136 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: So big corporations understand the advantages of globalization. UH, informed 137 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: leaders understand the advantages as well, and quite simply beating 138 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 1: back the forces of populism UH nationalist populism on the right, 139 00:07:56,240 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 1: anti elite populism on the left. Squires helping those who 140 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 1: can't help themselves who are being displaced by globalization. The 141 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 1: fundamental problem is that we don't do create adjustment assistance 142 00:08:10,880 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 1: in the United States, we don't do the right kind 143 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 1: of education and training in principle, UH, those are solutions 144 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 1: we could adopt, Professor I can. One reason why we 145 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: were sort of drawn to this question is because Richard 146 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:27,640 Speaker 1: Jones of Bloomberg wrote a peace where he said that 147 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 1: populism is the biggest threat to markets, and certainly he 148 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 1: is not alone in feeling that we are watching the 149 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: beginnings of a complete upheaval of our sense of the 150 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: global economy. Do you agree we're certainly seeing that kind 151 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 1: of upheaval in the United States with President Crump's trade 152 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: wars and aggressive rhetoric toward China. UM. I'm not sure 153 00:08:55,880 --> 00:09:01,079 Speaker 1: how broadly based globally this reaction is. If you spend 154 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:04,560 Speaker 1: time in Asia, you learn pretty quickly that not only 155 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:09,439 Speaker 1: China and Japan, but all the Southeast Aation economies are 156 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: still deeply committed to globalization and they're not turning away 157 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 1: from it. Despite all the noise in Italy over nationalism, 158 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 1: and despite Brexit, I think there is also deep in 159 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 1: a and and dividing support for UH an integrated global 160 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 1: economy in Europe. We're going to have to see now 161 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:37,319 Speaker 1: what happens in Brazil. The story is always changing, but 162 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 1: I think it's important not to over generalize from the 163 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 1: peculiar things happening at the moment in the US, Professor 164 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 1: I can Green, Do you believe that the power of 165 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 1: political reform is likely to change the outcome as you 166 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:02,319 Speaker 1: describe it in the United States? I think political reform 167 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: could UH create an environment where people think that their 168 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 1: government is being more responsive and that it's managing globalization 169 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: in a way that benefits everyone and not only the elites. 170 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:20,839 Speaker 1: But if you ask me what kind of political reform 171 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 1: are we talking about, then it becomes harder. Campaign finance reform, 172 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:31,680 Speaker 1: reform of how congressional district lines are drawn. In California 173 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:36,680 Speaker 1: we outsourced that to an independent commission, reform the electoral college. 174 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 1: Those would be major reforms. To put it mildly, you know, 175 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,680 Speaker 1: very I have to wonder did we get globalization wrong? 176 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:46,680 Speaker 1: I mean, is this a legitimate rejection of certain aspects 177 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:50,000 Speaker 1: of globalization that we're seeing in the movements that are 178 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 1: sweeping the globe right now. I think that we forgot 179 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 1: some basic um lessons about globalization. We got overly caught 180 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 1: up and include the UH professional economists and academics among 181 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:08,559 Speaker 1: those who committed the mistake. I don't let myself off 182 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 1: the hook. Uh. Globalization international trade doesn't automatically raise all boats. 183 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 1: It doesn't benefit everyone equally. It benefits some absolutely, and 184 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 1: there are others who are who lose. And the fact 185 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 1: that we forgot that last point, and that we didn't 186 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:33,680 Speaker 1: put in place education, training, place based policies that would 187 00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 1: help to compensate the losers or put them in a 188 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:41,959 Speaker 1: position where they would also benefit from globalization. We forgot 189 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 1: that fact and we're now seeing the consequences to those 190 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 1: consequences also express themselves in things such as status anxiety 191 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:56,160 Speaker 1: and questions of identity. I think all of these things 192 00:11:56,240 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: are UM wrapped up together. So UM. The political landscape 193 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:05,280 Speaker 1: in the US at the moment is very, very complicated, 194 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 1: as everyone knows. But some of the same people who 195 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:16,559 Speaker 1: feel left behind by globalization are UM are are are 196 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:20,560 Speaker 1: similarly UH feeling that they are being left behind in 197 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 1: terms of identity, politics, and UM their status is being 198 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:28,439 Speaker 1: threatened by immigrant groups and others. Well, I guess it. 199 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 1: I just want to quickly get from you a sense 200 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 1: of do you think that populism could actually be beneficial 201 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:36,439 Speaker 1: at the sort of wave just pushed and not forget 202 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:39,280 Speaker 1: people have been left behind, could actually make the economy 203 00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:44,840 Speaker 1: globally stronger. Well, if by populism you mean UH political 204 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 1: movements and leaders with authoritarian tendencies, then I would say no. 205 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 1: If you mean UH political leaders who make policy on 206 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 1: the basis of disinformation, I would say no as well. 207 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 1: But UM disenfranchised people are rightly unhappy by their disenfranchisements, 208 00:13:05,800 --> 00:13:09,319 Speaker 1: so to the extent that they become part of the 209 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:14,959 Speaker 1: political UH represented and mains political mainstream again, that can 210 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:17,679 Speaker 1: only be a good thing. Barry I. Can Green, Well, 211 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:19,480 Speaker 1: let you go get your phone. Barry I. Can Green 212 00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 1: is economic historian, professor of economics and political silence science 213 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 1: at the University of California, Berkeley. Joining us from Athens, Greece. 214 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:33,439 Speaker 1: We really appreciate you taking the time. Apple shares plunging 215 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 1: today the most since April sixteen, down nearly six percent, 216 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:42,640 Speaker 1: after reporting a weaker than expected forecasts for holiday sales 217 00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:47,560 Speaker 1: of iPhones and also removing detailed information about the number 218 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,440 Speaker 1: of iPhones that they sell each quarter going forward. Joining 219 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 1: us now Michael Scanlon, portfolio manager MANU Life Asset Management 220 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 1: in Boston, Michael, what was your reaction to this report 221 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 1: and do you think that the market response right now 222 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 1: is proportionate, disproportionate or not enough? Sure? So the results 223 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:09,800 Speaker 1: last night pretty strong, Um, you know, as certainly within 224 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 1: the range of general expectations that the street was looking for. Obviously, 225 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 1: the biggest surprise that most people are focused on is 226 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 1: this movement that they're gonna no longer disclose the unit 227 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: sales of their individual products, which certainly could introduce more 228 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: volatility to the the results going forward. So why do you 229 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 1: think they did this? Um, you know, I'm not really sure. 230 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 1: I think when when you think about it longer term, 231 00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 1: I guess their their point of argument would be that 232 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 1: focusing on how many units of a device they're selling 233 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,760 Speaker 1: every given ninety days is less important than the longer 234 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: term trajectory of the business. But again, when you're modeling 235 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 1: these companies on a quarterly basis, you know those are 236 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 1: certainly important inputs. Um. You know, a pessimist would tell 237 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 1: you that, you know, the expectations are the iPhone units 238 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:57,920 Speaker 1: are going to slow further, uh, and that they don't 239 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 1: want to have that as a highlighted number. Um. So 240 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 1: it's definitely gonna introduce more volatility to results going forward. 241 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: You own Apple shares right in your portfolios? Yeah, within 242 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 1: the John Haycock Balance one. We've been a long term 243 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 1: holder of the stock. Does this quarterly report make you 244 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 1: less willing to add to your allocation currently? Well, it's 245 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 1: a position that we've held for a long time. Um. 246 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: I think when you look at the results, really, for us, 247 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 1: the big thing that we always come back to is 248 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: just the total return profile of the stock. You look 249 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 1: at last year with the amount of cash that they 250 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 1: kicked off, they bought back seventy two billion dollars of stock, 251 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:34,880 Speaker 1: the share count was down over six percent year over year, 252 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 1: and going forward they're committed to bringing that net cash 253 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 1: balance down to zero. So you know, I think you 254 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:43,240 Speaker 1: can get a very high single digit return just from 255 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: the capital return on the stock buying back about six 256 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 1: percent and a point and a half on the dividend 257 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 1: um and then more modest operating income growth going forward. 258 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 1: But you know, when you look at that versus expectations 259 00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 1: for the market on a total return basis, it's still 260 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 1: pretty attractive. Okay, Well, I mean, um, all right, let's 261 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 1: move on to the information that they have reported or 262 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 1: will report they've got a new product category, right, this 263 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 1: category wearables, home and Accessories. They produced record quarter there, 264 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: four point two billion. What's your outlook for how fast 265 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 1: that unit can grow. Each incremental device, in addition to 266 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 1: just the pure revenue number of it is increasingly important, 267 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 1: right because we always talk about Apple with getting people 268 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:27,920 Speaker 1: into this ecosystem, and you know, getting a person to 269 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: buy that first device and then the second device is 270 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 1: incrementally more important when you think about some of those 271 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 1: other devices and you think about the watch, I mean 272 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 1: that's becoming more and more of a focal point. Is 273 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 1: they've added to sort of the healthcare element of it, 274 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:44,480 Speaker 1: and you know there's obviously a lot of talk with 275 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 1: this echo cardiogram functionality that they'll have within there. So 276 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 1: all these incremental devices just add to the bowl case 277 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 1: for Apple. And when you think about the refresh rates 278 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 1: and the customer loyalty levels that they experience, you know, 279 00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 1: when you look at the company's revenue base and the 280 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 1: multiple verse the SMP, it doesn't seem to reflect just 281 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 1: how loyal their customers are. Well, Apple will ultimately be 282 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 1: a software company and a services company and not a 283 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: hardware company. At its heart. UH. You know, they're certainly 284 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:16,439 Speaker 1: focused on the services today, right and they have that 285 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 1: goal of doubling the services revenue UM to by and 286 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,200 Speaker 1: it looks like they're going to get there probably next year, 287 00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:27,199 Speaker 1: so about a full year ahead of expectations. UM. You know, 288 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 1: the the certainly slowed units in terms of the iPhone 289 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:33,240 Speaker 1: units that are sold. But you never know what they're 290 00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 1: working on, right There's been a lot of speculation over 291 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:37,760 Speaker 1: the years, whether it's a TV or a car. You 292 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:40,679 Speaker 1: never know what that next device might be. But right 293 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:42,719 Speaker 1: now there is a lot of focuses on the focus 294 00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 1: on that service side of the business. What is your 295 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 1: thought about the Apple Watch and you believe that that 296 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 1: will be a big money maker for them, Well, right now, 297 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 1: it's not a huge money maker for them. I think 298 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:59,440 Speaker 1: longer term, the opportunity there is to UM you know, 299 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,320 Speaker 1: along the line of what they've been doing with the 300 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: heart monitoring and now this fall monitoring UH as well. 301 00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,480 Speaker 1: You know, if they're able to to move closer in 302 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 1: relationships with insurance companies UH and you know, have subsidized 303 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,640 Speaker 1: pricing for those units to get more of them actually 304 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 1: out there in circulation, then it could start to be 305 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:20,120 Speaker 1: a big driver for them going forward. But today it's 306 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,359 Speaker 1: just not a it's not as big of a focal 307 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,879 Speaker 1: point for investors as things like the iPhone units are 308 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 1: iPhone e sps are. So Apple shares are seeing their 309 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,360 Speaker 1: biggest declient at least in the initial hour of trading 310 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:35,439 Speaker 1: since two thousands sixteen. Is this a buying opportunity? Well, 311 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 1: when you look at the stock, I mean, you know, 312 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,639 Speaker 1: Apple is going to be out there buying the shares again. 313 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 1: They've committed to getting that hundred and thirty five billion 314 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 1: dollars or share of a hundred thirty five billion dollars 315 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 1: of cash or about twenty bucks a shared down to 316 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:50,160 Speaker 1: a net zero. Uh. So they're going to be buying 317 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:53,439 Speaker 1: back an extraordinary amount of shares. I'm not surprised to 318 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:56,239 Speaker 1: see the stock week on the open here. Uh And 319 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 1: again that's just reflective of UM a little bit softer 320 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 1: guide on the top line for next quarter and this 321 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,159 Speaker 1: new call it volatility that could be introduced to the 322 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:08,479 Speaker 1: results as as they're no longer just going to disclose units. 323 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:11,640 Speaker 1: Michael Scanlon, thank you very much for spending time with us. 324 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:16,200 Speaker 1: Michael Scanlon is portfolio manager for Manu Life as said management. 325 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:19,439 Speaker 1: They're based in Boston. The topic, of course Apple and 326 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,879 Speaker 1: the shares of Apple right now is least was saying 327 00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:26,679 Speaker 1: down more than six per cent, Apple saying that they 328 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 1: are no longer going to report unit sales of iPhones. 329 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:38,080 Speaker 1: Joe Meisack, the editor for the Bloomberg Brief on Municipals, 330 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 1: joins us now in our Bloomberg Interactor broker's studio Joe 331 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: Mysak four days, one hour, forty minutes to the mid 332 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 1: term elections. Are municipal bond markets ready for the outcome 333 00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:57,560 Speaker 1: of those elections? Well? Sure, plus we have the bond elections. PIM. 334 00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:01,360 Speaker 1: Come on, Well, that's what I'm asking about. Billion dollars 335 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 1: in municipal bonds on ballots, which is, you know, not 336 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:09,240 Speaker 1: the record for the general election. That's a little over 337 00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 1: eight billion, but it's still pretty good and it shows 338 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:17,240 Speaker 1: you that municipalities are really serious about getting back to 339 00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:20,920 Speaker 1: WRK Okay. So just get a little bit more specific here. 340 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,520 Speaker 1: So basically, municipalities are saying to voters, please sign off 341 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 1: on these projects and say that you'll pay for them, 342 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,719 Speaker 1: and you'll be willing to fund the assessments that come 343 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,679 Speaker 1: along with them. Uh, and then we'll go ahead and 344 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 1: make improvements. Can you give us a sense of what 345 00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:37,679 Speaker 1: some of these projects are and where they are? Okay, 346 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,920 Speaker 1: in in Colorado, for example, there they have a couple 347 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:46,520 Speaker 1: of transportation, big roadway issues. But I was struck when 348 00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:50,159 Speaker 1: I took a look at the list from I pre oh, 349 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:56,200 Speaker 1: the guys who put together how many deals and how 350 00:20:56,280 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 1: much borrowing is for schools? So much is for school construction, 351 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:09,639 Speaker 1: school renovation, pools, athletic facilities, so much for children's hospital, 352 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 1: high schools. Uh, that's really the you know, and that 353 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 1: that's usually what we see to schools, that's what people 354 00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 1: are spending money on, and that's what people are there, 355 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:24,359 Speaker 1: what governments are asking people to spend money on. It's fabulous. 356 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,480 Speaker 1: And the states where we're seeing most of this potential 357 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 1: issuance California, Texas, California, Colorado, Texas. You know, but let's 358 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,639 Speaker 1: step back here just a bit, because we talked about 359 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,160 Speaker 1: seven year, six billion dollars, and of course it never 360 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 1: all comes to market the year after that. It takes 361 00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:48,199 Speaker 1: municipalities and states years to go through their authorized but 362 00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:52,800 Speaker 1: unissued amounts. Uh. So you know, it's not as though, oh, yeah, 363 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: we're gonna see this big bumpet volume. Next year we'll 364 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 1: probably see a big bumpet volume anyway, because we're what 365 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 1: about probably wind up the year it over three d 366 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:05,840 Speaker 1: billion billion. Maybe next year we'll see wouldn't be surprised 367 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 1: four hundred maybe. Um So why why now? Why are 368 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 1: we seeing so many, so many projects like this being floated? 369 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:19,480 Speaker 1: Now you know there's a boom going on out there, 370 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 1: although you may not know it. This has been our theme, 371 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 1: I want to say, for the last two years, where 372 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:32,200 Speaker 1: so many municipalities are putting you know, they're going after 373 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:38,440 Speaker 1: with hammered tongs, either economic development projects or roadways or 374 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:44,239 Speaker 1: bridges or sewers or sidewalks. Their new issuance is up 375 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 1: this year. The thing that we saw take a hit 376 00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,720 Speaker 1: out of the market is when Congress did away with 377 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:56,160 Speaker 1: advance of fundings. Otherwise, municipalities are after, you know, the 378 00:22:56,280 --> 00:23:01,360 Speaker 1: longest time of being down because of the financial crisis. 379 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,960 Speaker 1: They're really back to it and building stuff. So I 380 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 1: think at one point earlier this year new issue volume 381 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 1: solely new money being raised was up. Something which is 382 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,240 Speaker 1: astounding in the muni market is this because states are 383 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: confident about their tax collections and that's connected to the 384 00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 1: job market, I would I would say, so sure, they're 385 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:30,159 Speaker 1: more they're more buoyant, upbeat about the state of affairs. 386 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,400 Speaker 1: And you know, it's funny. Back in the seventies, for example, 387 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:41,359 Speaker 1: you remember PIM the the electorate was not very approving 388 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,000 Speaker 1: of bond issues and so many of them went down. 389 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 1: But for the last I want to say, um, twenty years, 390 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:56,440 Speaker 1: we've seen the electorate in a much more approving uh 391 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 1: uh attitude toward bond issues. So I wouldn't be surprised 392 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,360 Speaker 1: if on Tuesday we see the approval ratio on these 393 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 1: bond issues more. Just real quick, I'd love to get 394 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,919 Speaker 1: your thoughts on the healthcare bill coming due for New 395 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 1: York City, considering the fact that it hits pretty close 396 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,720 Speaker 1: to home all the other post employment benefits story by 397 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 1: Martin Braun. Well, you know these other post employment benefits, 398 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,280 Speaker 1: you don't you pay for them over time, and so 399 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 1: many municipalities, just like New York City, don't really put 400 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,439 Speaker 1: aside a lot of money for them. They just know 401 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:30,960 Speaker 1: they're gonna, you know, as the bills come in, that's 402 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 1: when you pay them. Some municipalities are starting to uh 403 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 1: you know, reserve and set aside lots of money for 404 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 1: these things, but other post employment benefits. It's one of those. 405 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,359 Speaker 1: It's almost like a shadow number. Just to give a 406 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,679 Speaker 1: little more color to that New York City needs to 407 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,560 Speaker 1: end up or potentially could pay health costs for its 408 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:50,960 Speaker 1: entire workers of a hundred and three billion dollars, which 409 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 1: is an increase of forty billion over a decade. And 410 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 1: how much has it set aside for that bill five 411 00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:00,920 Speaker 1: billion dollars, So that shortfall needs to get bridged at 412 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:05,920 Speaker 1: some point, uh, and could potentially be a problem. Well, 413 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,400 Speaker 1: you know, New York City has such a it's such 414 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 1: a robust economy and such a such a strong tax base. Uh. 415 00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,400 Speaker 1: You know, May I tend not to get too excited 416 00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:20,640 Speaker 1: about the open but that's me. Well, Joe Meisac, it's 417 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,639 Speaker 1: just you, but we really appreciate your ideas. Joe Meisac 418 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,240 Speaker 1: is the editor for the Bloomberg brief to focused on 419 00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 1: musivals and has been in this market for decades, so 420 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 1: we actually do really value his views on all of 421 00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:35,080 Speaker 1: these things. We really appreciate you being with us the 422 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:40,440 Speaker 1: conclusions just to get exercise. Uh. Nice and Lisa rom 423 00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,920 Speaker 1: when it's along with my co host and colleague pim Fox, 424 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:47,280 Speaker 1: and this is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 425 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,960 Speaker 1: P and L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to 426 00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 1: interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 427 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 1: I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at pim Fox, I'm 428 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Lisa, I'm Allo. Its one before the podcast. 429 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,480 Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio