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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Ju us proud read enough. They're all for running a game.

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Speaker 3: So smooth, so sweet, tid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 1: thousand percent.

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Speaker 4: Of the time. How shot with that?

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Speaker 5: Shop with mind, buddy, and that's why you see your

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Speaker 5: beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 5: Dangerous a mount of the planet. Nobody kicks them.

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Speaker 6: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 5: The love is left to one of the wide eyed,

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Speaker 5: drilled bibused, how on earth did that happened?

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Speaker 6: Hello everyone, welcome back to Wonderful, the Soccer Betting podcast

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Speaker 6: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lee Buff.

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Speaker 6: Joining me in just a minute will be my co

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Speaker 6: host and friends Anthony Dbundo and bj Cunningham. We also

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Speaker 6: have another interview with Eric Wanalda which you can hear

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Speaker 6: at the end of the episode. And today we will

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Speaker 6: look at the FA Cup, some Bundesliga, siri A, La

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Speaker 6: Liga and League. Oh and then next week we'll be

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Speaker 6: off on Sunday night and then next week get back

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Speaker 6: into the Premier League. And before I bring in my

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Speaker 6: co hosts, a reminder that this episode and every episode

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Speaker 6: of wondergl is presented to you by Bet three six five,

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Speaker 6: the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo code

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Speaker 6: action to get Bet three six fives exclusive sign up

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Speaker 6: offer in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar on

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Speaker 6: any game and you can get two hundred free FA

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Speaker 6: Cup Fourth Round clear headliner. Here, it's a It's this

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Speaker 6: seems to keep happening with man City. Whatever team they're

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Speaker 6: in the title race with, they end up playing either

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Speaker 6: in the Fa Cup or Caramel Cup. This time it's Arsenal.

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Speaker 6: This time it's at the ETI had this time City

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Speaker 6: minus one thirty eight at Bet three sixty five Arsenal

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Speaker 6: plus three point thirty three on the three right line.

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Speaker 6: The draw is plus three twenty bj price on Arsenal.

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Speaker 6: Looks pretty tempting here.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, I actually do like Arsenal. I'll better than plus

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Speaker 3: half a goal plus one point fifteen. You know, this

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Speaker 3: is a for fans of tactics. This is an incredibly

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Speaker 3: interesting match just because of what is Arsenal going to

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Speaker 3: do in this one? Because Arsenal has gotten very, very

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Speaker 3: used to holding a lot of possession. You saw it

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Speaker 3: against Manchester United. Absolutely throttled them. Had the most touches

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Speaker 3: in the penalty area in the Premier League since City

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Speaker 3: against Leeds Academy when they won seven to nothing last winter.

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Speaker 3: But Arsenal really hasn't faced a team that's going to

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Speaker 3: control this much possession against them. And my question to

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Speaker 3: Arsenal is is are they going to be able to

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Speaker 3: sit deep in that low block and be able to

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Speaker 3: keep City out and not let them play through the middle.

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Speaker 2: Because Pep right now is adamant.

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Speaker 3: That he wants City to play through the middle. He's

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Speaker 3: and what's funny is that he brought on eighteen year

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Speaker 3: old Rico Lewis just like kind of out of nowhere,

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Speaker 3: and he's become like their best ball progressor on the

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Speaker 3: team with Rodrey dropping back into a back three, and

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Speaker 3: really what he's trying to do is he's saying, I

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Speaker 3: really just want to play through the middle of the

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Speaker 3: pitch because that's the best way to beat a team

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Speaker 3: that polls him out a position.

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Speaker 2: If you play out wide, then they.

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Speaker 3: Can keep their structure and it's very difficult to break

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Speaker 3: down teams like Arsenal, who is one of the best

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Speaker 3: defenses in the Premier League.

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Speaker 2: I go back to the match on January.

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Speaker 3: First of last year when Arsenal lost two to one

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Speaker 3: to City where they did sit deep and they counted

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Speaker 3: them very effectively for the first half. City got a

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Speaker 3: flute penalty and Gabrielle got sent off with two yellow

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Speaker 3: cards back to.

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Speaker 2: Back, and then the match kind of got out of

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Speaker 2: hand after that.

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Speaker 3: If Arsenal could put together that same type of game plan,

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Speaker 3: which they're playing much much better now. They have better players,

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Speaker 3: obviously than Chenko's become. You know, he was Man of

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Speaker 3: the match against United for a reason his ability to

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Speaker 3: progress the ball with the pitch and also defend. I

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Speaker 3: think the price here is pretty good on Arsenal. You know,

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Speaker 3: if you look at Arsenal in City's performances against the

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Speaker 3: Big Six, Arsenal's actually been better. Like Cities played five

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Speaker 3: times against the Big six nine point three expect goals

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Speaker 3: four six point three against. Arsenal's played six matches against

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Speaker 3: the Big six thirteen point four expect the goals for

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Speaker 3: six point five against. So I only have City projected

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Speaker 3: at minus one h two. So I think there actually

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Speaker 3: is some value here on Arsenal at plus one fourteen.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I probably played the money line here on Arsenal.

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Speaker 6: I think three to one in this situations. It's a

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Speaker 6: weird one because of the title race and City's form

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Speaker 6: obviously has not been stalwart since the World Cup. So

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Speaker 6: I think the money line here is where I'd look Anthony,

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Speaker 6: anything for you here. I think the.

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Speaker 1: Biggest question is kind of what the managers do to

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Speaker 1: approach this. This is like the undercard for the main event,

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Speaker 1: which is coming in the middle of February, right after

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl the Wednesday after, in the middle of

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Speaker 1: the Champions League, Arsenal will play City for the first

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Speaker 1: time of two meetings in the league. So how do

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Speaker 1: these managers approach this Cup match? Because I think the

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Speaker 1: fear is that if Arteta chooses to rotate and City

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Speaker 1: chooses to rotate, Arteta doesn't have the depth that City does,

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Speaker 1: Like they have more of a drop off from their

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Speaker 1: best wingers their best midfielders than City does, where City

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Speaker 1: kind of has, you know, more depth, Like if they

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Speaker 1: don't play Holland they have Alvarez. If Arsenal rest Sokka,

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Speaker 1: like who's the next guy up, I don't love that,

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Speaker 1: Like in Katia will probably play because there's nobody else,

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Speaker 1: Like the midfield depth is a little bit lacking too,

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Speaker 1: So I think there's more question marks about depth if

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Speaker 1: you get a rotated team, and I think there's a

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Speaker 1: risk of that.

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Speaker 5: So I haven't bet anything here yet.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna kind of wait, read the tea leaves on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: see what we get with, you know, if any manager

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Speaker 1: gives something away as to whether they weigh rotate or not,

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Speaker 1: and see if lineups kind of get in the mood here.

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Speaker 1: But I would I would look to play Arsenal. I

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Speaker 1: think that they are a little bit undervalued here. I

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Speaker 1: agree with BJ I have downgraded City considerably. I know

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Speaker 1: they just pasted Spurs in the second half and then

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Speaker 1: had a pretty easy win against Wolves, but again.

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Speaker 5: The shots weren't there. I mean the first forty minut

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Speaker 5: that's against Wolves, they did nothing.

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Speaker 1: And this team just looks like it's lacking juice, and

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Speaker 1: so I think that you could see them struggle with

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Speaker 1: Arsenal's successful ability without the ball.

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Speaker 6: The other FA Cup kind of headliner here for the

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Speaker 6: fourth round is Man Liverpool's got to oper siety, Liverpool's

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Speaker 6: got to be sick of thee and Brighton. Brighton's at

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Speaker 6: home and their plus one seventy slight dog on the

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Speaker 6: three way line Liverpool plus one forty five, the draws

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Speaker 6: plus two seventy. I think you know, if you're a

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Speaker 6: listener to the show of any veteran status, like you've

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Speaker 6: listened to more than three episodes of Wonder Goal, you'll

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Speaker 6: know where this is going. I think Brighton any way

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Speaker 6: you want is the way to go here. This Liverpool

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Speaker 6: team is in flux. They've just not been very good

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Speaker 6: and Brighton seems to have their number. Does Irbie really

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Speaker 6: took it to them the last time they played. So

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Speaker 6: whether it's a Brighton money line BJ you have a

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Speaker 6: different bet that you like here, But I think any

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Speaker 6: way you want to back Brighton to have a good

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Speaker 6: performance is worth a sprinkle here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I like Brighton's team total over one

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Speaker 3: and a half. It's still sitting at plus money at

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Speaker 3: plus one oh five. I mean Brighton completely and utterly

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Speaker 3: dismantled Liverpool the last time they've played. I mean they

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Speaker 3: were able to control sixty one percent possession, they outouched

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Speaker 3: Liverpool and the penalty are at thirty six to fifteen

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Speaker 3: and they beat them on actually one point nine to one.

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Speaker 3: But the biggest stat of all. In all of this

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Speaker 3: is Brighton had an eighty nine point nine percent build

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Speaker 3: up completion percentage and Liverpool's passive per defensive action was

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Speaker 3: thirteen point two. That is significantly more than Liverpool's allowing

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Speaker 3: to every other opponent so far this season. They're actually

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Speaker 3: the number one team in the Premier League in build

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Speaker 3: up a completion percentage allowed. But Brighton was able to

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Speaker 3: play right through the middle of the pitch and get

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Speaker 3: the ball out wide where there was acres of space.

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Speaker 3: Because what Klopp was trying to do is he was

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Speaker 3: so worried about Brighton playing through the middle of the pitch,

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Speaker 3: even brought Thiago all the way up to press the

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Speaker 3: opposing center backs. But everybody was staying so compact in

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Speaker 3: the middle that if the ball got to the middle,

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Speaker 3: it was just going immediately out wide and the Matelma

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Speaker 3: and March had acres and acres of space to work in.

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Speaker 3: Of course, you're going against Trent, Alex and Arnold and Robertson,

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Speaker 3: who are not the best defenders in space. I mean,

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Speaker 3: what's gonna change this time around? Van Dyke still out,

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Speaker 3: which we've talked about many times, is maybe not the

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Speaker 3: worst thing in the world. But Liverpool defensively just does

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Speaker 3: not have the midfield or the defenders right now and

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Speaker 3: out wide to hang with this Brighton team. I mean

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Speaker 3: under deservee. Brighton's now what now is twenty six goals

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Speaker 3: off twenty two point six expected in thirteen Premier League matches.

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Speaker 3: They created over one and a half expected goals in

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Speaker 3: both meetings with Liverpool this season. So if you give

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Speaker 3: me a Brighton team total at over one and a

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Speaker 3: half at plus one oh five, I'm gonna take that

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Speaker 3: ten times out of ten. I mean I project Brighton

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Speaker 3: for one point nine goals in this match. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: that's how I love to play Brighton. I'll probably on

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Speaker 3: Brighton minus one and a half at a decent price,

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Speaker 3: so I'll probably be on their money line as well,

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Speaker 3: But this line has Crashedan was an underdog and now

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Speaker 3: it's sitting on a pick them Liverpool the first time around.

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Speaker 2: You know their plus one h five road favorites.

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Speaker 5: I didn't close that though.

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Speaker 2: They did not close that, but they.

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Speaker 3: Certainly didn't close anywhere near this price, which is just

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Speaker 3: just showing you the respect now that Brighton is getting

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Speaker 3: in the market. So I'll be on Brighton team total

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Speaker 3: four and a half and basically any way.

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Speaker 4: You like it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, two weeks ago we have this exact game in

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Speaker 1: the league. You mentioned it and talked about it. I

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Speaker 1: said that I made this close to a toss up.

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Speaker 1: I actually make Brighton a favorite now at home I

201
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Speaker 1: do too, by the way, and so like, and I've

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Speaker 1: upgraded both. I've upgraded Brighton since and Liverpool had another

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Speaker 1: shaky showing at home against Chelsea where they underperformed expectations.

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Speaker 5: They are now worse.

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Speaker 1: I still have them slightly better than Brighton, but once

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Speaker 1: you include home field, just in a straight match, I

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Speaker 1: would make Brighton a favorite. And now you also have

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Speaker 1: a situation where you're Gonnaklop has traditionally not been a

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Speaker 1: cups guy. I know last year when they were chasing

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Speaker 1: the quadruple, they were playing not very rotated teams. But

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Speaker 1: if you go back and you look at what Klop

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Speaker 1: has said about these cups over the years. With Champions

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Speaker 1: League coming up in a couple of weeks, with their

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Speaker 1: league position in serious danger, you could see a pretty

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Speaker 1: rotated Liverpool here. The problem is they can't even really

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Speaker 1: rotate that much because they have so many injuries. But again,

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Speaker 1: like there's a much higher risk of the Big six

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Speaker 1: road team here going to Brighton and rotating than there

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Speaker 1: is Brighton, who will see this as a really big

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Speaker 1: opportunity to have a successful Cup run this season. I

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Speaker 1: make Brighton a favorite. I bet Brighton as a dog.

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Speaker 1: I would bet them up until they're favored, and so

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Speaker 1: I like the Seagulls.

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Speaker 5: Once again, it.

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Speaker 1: Feels like we're getting to the maybe the apex of

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Speaker 1: the market. I'm deservey and that's very sad. But we're

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Speaker 1: not there yet, especially in these spots against Liverpool. But

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Speaker 1: I think their weekend next weekend, they're they're like minus

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Speaker 1: three hundred against Bournemouth, which we will see about that.

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Speaker 5: I gotta think about that.

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Speaker 4: Some more.

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Speaker 5: Might be betting Bournemouth plus one one into like three

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Speaker 5: quarters one and a half.

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Speaker 6: But before we look at that, we've got some business

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Speaker 6: to attend to on this episode, Anthony, including the Bundesliga.

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Speaker 6: Just quickly look at the table. Bayern Munich there at

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Speaker 6: the top, but it is a race. Munich's on thirty

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Speaker 6: six points, un Jan Berlin thirty three, Leipzig at thirty two,

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Speaker 6: Frankfurt Dortmund, Freiberg all at thirty one and Volksburg at

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Speaker 6: twenty nine points. We'll start with Leverkusen and Dortmund. We

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Speaker 6: had a very interesting conversation with Eric Ronald at the

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Speaker 6: end of this podcast that you can listen to about

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Speaker 6: Geo Reina. But in terms of their match this weekend,

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Speaker 6: Leverkusen at plus one forty five home underdog against Dortmun

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Speaker 6: plus one seventy the draw here is plus do fifty bj.

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Speaker 6: You've got something to say about this one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I do like Dortmann in this matchup. I think

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Speaker 3: it's it sets up pretty well for them. So that

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Speaker 3: was coming off a late winner today against Minz and Leverkusen.

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Speaker 3: I mean, let's be honest, they had a dreadful start

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Speaker 3: to the season. They fired they fired gerardos Hallen and

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Speaker 3: then they bring in Shabi Alonso who's been for nine

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Speaker 3: matches in the Bundesliga and they've been okay, Like plus

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Speaker 3: three point one non penalty XG differential is pretty good.

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Speaker 3: They're on a five match win streak. But during that

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Speaker 3: win streak they have not faced the stiffest of competition.

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Speaker 3: It's been Unjan Berlin, Cologne, Stuttgart, Gladbach and Bochum and

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Speaker 3: the toughest point they've played under shot by Alonzo has

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Speaker 3: been Leipzig, who pumped them horribly, maybe them two to nothing.

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Speaker 3: Lever Couston's only bit a muster five shots, twelve penalty

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Speaker 3: box touches and point one x G. And the lever

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Speaker 3: Couston offense is basically just built off converting and getting

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Speaker 3: high quality chances because they're eleventh and shots for ninety

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Speaker 3: but fifth and big scoring chances. And the Dortmund defense,

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Speaker 3: as we mentioned many times, has been much improved this

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Speaker 3: season and one of those big improvements is limiting those

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Speaker 3: big scoring chances, so they are top five in the Bundesliga.

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Speaker 3: They're also top five and passes allowed in the penalty area,

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Speaker 3: while lever Couston is also in the bottom seven in

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Speaker 3: box entries. And the biggest weakness for dormant and you

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Speaker 3: saw it today because it's defending set pieces. They can

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Speaker 3: see it a corner against mines. They're sixteenth in the

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Speaker 3: Bundesliga in next allowed per set piece. Well, lever Cousins

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Speaker 3: only tenth in the Bundesliga in terms of converting those

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Speaker 3: set piece chances. And the Dortmund offense has just been

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Speaker 3: on fire. I mean their second in the Bundesliga and

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Speaker 3: expected goals. Like last six matches they've created fourteen big

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Speaker 3: scoring chances. And the big thing for them as well

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Speaker 3: when we talk about set pieces, their top four in

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Speaker 3: terms of actually per set piece they obviously there's their

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Speaker 3: game winning goal came off a corner against Mines Lever

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Speaker 3: Cousten's fifteenth in the Bundesliga in defending set pieces. So

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Speaker 3: this is a I think it's a good spot here

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Speaker 3: for Dortmann. I don't think they should be underdogs on

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Speaker 3: the road. Actually project them at plus one twenty nine,

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Speaker 3: so I like them. Drawing out bet minus one o

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Speaker 3: five Bayern.

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Speaker 6: Munich minus three hundred, it gets Frankfurt plus six to

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Speaker 6: fifty on the road the draw is five to one. Anthony,

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Speaker 6: you have some thoughts here on this game. You think

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Speaker 6: that Byron should paste one of the teams chasing them

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Speaker 6: in the title race. But you also have some I guess,

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Speaker 6: bigger picture bets on the Bundesliga that you want to

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Speaker 6: at least explore. So let's start with the game and

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Speaker 6: then you can kind of lead that into what you

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Speaker 6: think could be worth a play here As we head

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Speaker 6: down the stretch run it doesn't look like our minds

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Speaker 6: top four bet is going to cash.

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Speaker 1: By the way, no, no, I wish, I wish Mines

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Speaker 1: was running like unon this year where all those shots

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Speaker 1: went in. Imagine that, like just like a paper tiger,

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Speaker 1: Una is an unserious threat. The markets know that they're

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Speaker 1: sitting in second whatever. But first I'll talk about the match.

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Speaker 1: Then we can have more, maybe more of a conversation

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Speaker 1: about Leipzig. Byron has looked really flat first two matches

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Speaker 1: coming out of the World Cup break. They created you know,

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Speaker 1: one and a half expected goals against at home against Coln,

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Speaker 1: really poor and they created less, you know, right around

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Speaker 1: one expected goal against Leipzig and at Leipzig and really

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Speaker 1: didn't have much attacking punch. I think that there is

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Speaker 1: a danger in overreacting to a couple of games in

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Speaker 1: the short term. Here this is a home hammer spot

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Speaker 1: for me for Bayern. They went to Frankfurt earlier in

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Speaker 1: the season and beat him on the opening day, put

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Speaker 1: up over four expected goals. It was a complete demolition.

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Speaker 1: And I know that Mane is out for this match,

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Speaker 1: and I know that Chupumoting is probably not the best

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Speaker 1: first choice striker, but this Frankfurt team, man, I know

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Speaker 1: they owned me. I watched both of their games against

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Speaker 1: Shaka and against Freiburg.

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Speaker 5: They got completely outplayed in both games.

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Speaker 1: I then watched Chaka play Leipzig a few days later,

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Speaker 1: and Shaka looked like they didn't belong on the same

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Speaker 1: pitch as Leipzig. The difference in controlling the game and

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Speaker 1: stopping entries into the penalty area of Freiburg out shooting

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Speaker 1: them by quadruple today, creating over one point six expected goals.

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Speaker 1: Freiburg completely dominating a match a Freiburg team that isn't

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Speaker 1: even really built to do that. I mean, they like

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Speaker 1: to play without the ball, they like to run, they

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Speaker 1: like to press. They don't like to be like a

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Speaker 1: possession dominant, slow build up team. And Frankfort couldn't stop

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Speaker 1: them from doing that today. It was a remarkably bad

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Speaker 1: showing for Frankfurt. I think they are so fraudulent and

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Speaker 1: I am and I am betting against them in a

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Speaker 1: home hammer spot for Byron, so I took some Byron

336
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Speaker 1: first half minus three quarters of a goal. I think

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Speaker 1: they roll here. I don't hate minus one and a

338
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Speaker 1: half either. I think this is a good Byron by

339
00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:21,600
Speaker 1: low against a fraudulent Frankfurt team. But I think when

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Speaker 1: we look bigger picture here, we don't know the status

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Speaker 1: of money and when he'll be back. He is apparently

342
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Speaker 1: back in training now, but like Byron looks flawed. And

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Speaker 1: if you go to the to the data on the

344
00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:39,080
Speaker 1: season and you kind of just sort for when Marco

345
00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:42,080
Speaker 1: Rosa became manager at Leipzig, Byron is about plus one

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Speaker 1: point four x GG difference per ninety Leipzig is about

347
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Speaker 1: plus one point twenty five. That's not that different, and

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Speaker 1: Leipzig is only four points behind them now they will

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Speaker 1: play again at Byron, so that has to be factored in.

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Speaker 1: But you know, if you can find fifteen twenty one,

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Speaker 1: this doesn't I mean, Bien doesn't look like they're really

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Speaker 1: strengthening the additions that they have made Daily Blend, Like,

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Speaker 1: I don't think he fits what they want to do

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Speaker 1: at all because he's limited athletically, like deep lying playmakers

355
00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,399
Speaker 1: are not their problem. He's not adding much defensively, so like,

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Speaker 1: I don't know what that adds. And I don't think

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Speaker 1: they're addressing their midfield issues.

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Speaker 5: So could they get caught here.

359
00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:25,400
Speaker 1: I don't think it's out of the question if Leipzig

360
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,240
Speaker 1: continues to perform this way and the Leipzig's healthy, Berner's

361
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,760
Speaker 1: back looking good and Kungngo will be there the rest

362
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Speaker 1: of the season.

363
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Speaker 5: Like this is a attack that's good enough. Question is

364
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Speaker 5: is the defense good enough?

365
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Speaker 1: Probably not in the end, but like a fifteen twenty

366
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Speaker 1: to one, I may be looking to take a Leipzig

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Speaker 1: shot here to win this league.

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Speaker 6: Kind of reminds me of back in the very beginning

369
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Speaker 6: of our still blaspheming friendship. Right as the Bundesliga was

370
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Speaker 6: going to be the first league to come back from

371
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Speaker 6: the pandemic. I was gung ho on betting brusha mocking

372
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Speaker 6: odd Block back to back they were like seventy to

373
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Speaker 6: one to catch Byron. I mean, the league was off

374
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Speaker 6: for a couple of months. Who knows how these teams

375
00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:12,119
Speaker 6: are going to come back from a pandemic. No crowd.

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Speaker 6: Cloud Block was really good, played well yeah, and then

377
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Speaker 6: and their first game was against Byron, so I was like,

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Speaker 6: all right, this is you know, you get this game

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Speaker 6: and maybe you can charge up the standings. And I

380
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Speaker 6: don't think Byron let up a goal for the rest.

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Speaker 4: Of the city.

382
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Speaker 1: They didn't lose a game they had like six wins

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Speaker 1: and a draw. It clod box was that was back

384
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Speaker 1: when they were good. I mean there was open top four,

385
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:38,359
Speaker 1: then they made the Champions League. Okay, I'll stop here

386
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Speaker 1: because he was reminiscing on the glory days.

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Speaker 6: All right, let's hop skip and jump to Syria. Ah

388
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Speaker 6: BJ's boy, all of our boy Jose Mourinho and Roma.

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Speaker 6: They're four to one on the road against league leaders Napoli,

390
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Speaker 6: who are odds on minus one thirty four. The draw

391
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Speaker 6: is plus two sixty Napoli at the top of the

392
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Speaker 6: table on fifty points, and then everybody else is at

393
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Speaker 6: least twelve back, including Roma who's actually thirteen. But all

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Speaker 6: of aser in agreement here. This is a meeting between

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Speaker 6: the two best defenses in the Italian top flight, and

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Speaker 6: Roma is actually slightly better twelve point four expected goals

397
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Speaker 6: against in nineteen games. I know, Siria Eyes is down, down, down,

398
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:24,320
Speaker 6: but that is outrageously good.

399
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Speaker 2: BJ.

400
00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:28,399
Speaker 6: You can get us started here talking about our boy Jose.

401
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is just an all time hammer

402
00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:31,920
Speaker 2: spot here for Roma.

403
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:37,000
Speaker 3: I mean, two teams that play completely different styles, but

404
00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 3: the xtally differential is essentially exactly the same. I mean

405
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Speaker 3: we're nineteen matches in to Syria. Napoli is a plus

406
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:49,400
Speaker 3: thirty two actual goal differential plus twenty expected goal differential.

407
00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:52,480
Speaker 3: Roma's a plus nine actual goal differential plus nineteen point

408
00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:56,040
Speaker 3: seven expected goldiffential. And Jose Mourinho is just doing a

409
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,680
Speaker 3: masterful job at what he does best, and it's keeping

410
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:02,760
Speaker 3: his teams very very compact and very elite at not

411
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:04,399
Speaker 3: allowing you to play through the middle pitch and not

412
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Speaker 3: most importantly, making it very very difficult for you to

413
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 3: actually get the ball inside the penalty area. I mean,

414
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Speaker 3: Roma's defensive stats are incredible in the season, I mean

415
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:17,520
Speaker 3: point six seven non penalty expected goals allowed. Nobody has

416
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Speaker 3: created over one and a half expected goals against them.

417
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,679
Speaker 3: Only three teams have created over one expected goal against them.

418
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Speaker 3: The last time they faced Napoli, they lost one nothing,

419
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Speaker 3: but they held Napoli to just point nine expected goals

420
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Speaker 3: on thirteen shots, which is just this second time all

421
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Speaker 3: season that Napoli has been held under one expected goal

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Speaker 3: in Syria. And Rome is also a very very underrated offense.

423
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:39,640
Speaker 3: I mean their fourth and non penalty expected goals around

424
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Speaker 3: one and a half per match.

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Speaker 2: They've scored twenty.

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Speaker 3: Five goals off of thirty two expected, they have one

427
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Speaker 3: of the highest x chieper shots and then Syria a

428
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Speaker 3: than the number one x g per set piece team.

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Speaker 3: So quite simply, Michael, if these two teams have pretty

430
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Speaker 3: much exactly the same underlying metrics, why is Napoli sitting

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Speaker 3: up there at minus one fifty. They're just outrageously overvalued.

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Speaker 2: Years.

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Speaker 3: So I love Roma plus half a goal plus one

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00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 3: thirty love them four to one. Just an all time

435
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 3: hammer spot here for Roma.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm with you on the four to one. It's

437
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 6: it's gonna be a fun one. If we had an underdog. Partly,

438
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 6: I think all three of us would be racing to

439
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 6: make that our pick. Anthony, you don't squint at me.

440
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:20,119
Speaker 5: I'm not racing to make the pick. But I am

441
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 5: betting Roma here.

442
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 1: I'm a little scared. Like Roma is extremely conservative, like

443
00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 1: you look at expected threat feel tilt, like they'd let

444
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:31,399
Speaker 1: you just get the ball into dangerous areas, like that's

445
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 1: the Marinho way and they're very good at that. But

446
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 1: like Garge Skeelia and Oceanman Man, like you let them

447
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 1: just run at your penalty.

448
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,679
Speaker 5: Area the whole game in Napoli and that's a.

449
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,320
Speaker 1: That's a dangerous, dangerous game to play, and Roma has

450
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 1: not been good at playing from behind, and that's the

451
00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 1: other thing that's concerning. I know a lot of its variants,

452
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:50,720
Speaker 1: and so like I am betting Roma. Don't get me wrong,

453
00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 1: I will not. This is just a normal play for

454
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 1: me on Roma. I also may play the.

455
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 5: Under because I think that this game could end up

456
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:00,240
Speaker 5: being very similar.

457
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:03,119
Speaker 1: To the last meeting where yeah, Roma had a good start,

458
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 1: they were you know, they closed to pick in that

459
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 1: game at home. They had a good start, but the

460
00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:11,639
Speaker 1: second half they couldn't generate much of anything, and then

461
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 1: Napoli has the one moment they get the win.

462
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 5: It was a pretty even game like Romo was you know, the.

463
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 1: Line was correct. I think they can replicate that, but

464
00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 1: I could. I just know I'm gonna get sick losing

465
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 1: this game like one nail here. So I do lean

466
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 1: toward the under as well. Maybe a Napoli team total under.

467
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 5: I don't know.

468
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 1: I'm kind of work shopping how I feel about this game,

469
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 1: but I did already bet Roma plus a half, so

470
00:22:34,760 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 1: I'm I'm locked into that one.

471
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 6: You already bet It sounds like you're racing you're racing.

472
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 2: Jady, race race.

473
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 6: Yeah.

474
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,720
Speaker 1: I called up the customer service line ask for a refund.

475
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 1: They didn't give me one, but uh yeah no. I

476
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 1: I do show value on Roma here and I love Roma,

477
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:52,959
Speaker 1: and I show value on them almost every week, including

478
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 1: in the Europa League, where I bet them twenty three

479
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 1: to one to win it.

480
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 5: Just a couple of days ago, Baja and I were

481
00:22:57,760 --> 00:22:59,919
Speaker 5: talking about that twenty three to one.

482
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 1: When the top three teams in the league right now

483
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 1: in the Europa League, Arsenal, who will be focused on

484
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 1: the Premier League, Barcelona and United play each other after that,

485
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 1: it's like IAC associadod So I took some Roma to

486
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:12,959
Speaker 1: win Europa League because I think they have a good

487
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,479
Speaker 1: chance of between that, at least better than twenty three

488
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 1: to one, and I took some Roma this weekend. Roma

489
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:20,439
Speaker 1: has been finally cashing some tickets for us.

490
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 5: Let's hope they keep doing that.

491
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 6: Anything else for you around Italy?

492
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 3: Pija, Yeah, I like Krimin Essay enter over three goals

493
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 3: at plus one fifteen. I mean Krimin Essay is the

494
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 3: worst defense in Syria by non penalty expected goal is allowed,

495
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 3: and the reason for that because they press a ton

496
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 3: and it leaves them very very leads to very very

497
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 3: open matches, Like they have forced the fourth most high

498
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 3: turnovers in Syria, which is very impressive, but they're dead

499
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,399
Speaker 3: last in terms of progressive pass and dribbles allowed for

500
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 3: ninety Inter is the best team in Syria a by

501
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 3: far playing through pressure. They're second behind Napoly and expected

502
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,120
Speaker 3: goals and when these two teams faced off the last

503
00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:00,240
Speaker 3: time they've Inter one three one three point five four

504
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:02,959
Speaker 3: expected goals were created. Even kremin Esse created over one

505
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 3: expected goal and they do have a path to success

506
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 3: offensively here. It's because they're actually this number two in

507
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 3: Syria and crosses completed in the penalty area while enter

508
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:14,400
Speaker 3: his fifteenth at defending crosses.

509
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,199
Speaker 2: Kriminis also a top seven team. It touches in the.

510
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 3: Penalty area and passes completed in the penal here, So

511
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,159
Speaker 3: not just a completely horrible offense like offense that can

512
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 3: actually do something here. So I projected around three and

513
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 3: a half goals for this match, so I like the

514
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 3: valueing over three goals plus one fifteen.

515
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,879
Speaker 6: Anthony, another bet for you in Syria.

516
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:35,920
Speaker 1: Huh yeah, I was really hoping to get a good

517
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 1: so swallow number against Milan, so solo goes to Milan.

518
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 1: I mean, I looked like it was going to be

519
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,160
Speaker 1: a good fade Melan spot, but they just got hammered

520
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 1: at Lazio on Tuesday and now they're home and the

521
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 1: number came down a good bit, so I'm gonna end

522
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:53,879
Speaker 1: up probably passing there at the current number. Still lean

523
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 1: towards a swallow plus one and a quarter. This Milan team,

524
00:24:58,080 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 1: I still don't know what to entirely make of them,

525
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,879
Speaker 1: but the regression is coming and unfortunately they played Tottenham

526
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 1: in the Champions League, so it's gonna be a really

527
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 1: tough one for me to bet. But I look towards

528
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 1: the swallow. But I do love Monza plus one at Juventus.

529
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,160
Speaker 1: These two teams just played in the Copa Italia.

530
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 5: Monza was the better team for the first forty five.

531
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: Uventus did improve in the second half and it was

532
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 1: ultimately a deserve two to one winner, but again catching

533
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 1: that full goal for a Manza team that has really

534
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 1: improved and actually has a positive expected goal difference now

535
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 1: in the league, and they've trended up considerably in the

536
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 1: last couple of months, whereas Juventus that defense has started

537
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 1: to fall off a cliff.

538
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 5: We talked about it, that.

539
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 1: They were not actually good, and you know, it always

540
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:43,199
Speaker 1: doesn't always work this beautifully. But when you run as

541
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,360
Speaker 1: good as they did and you con seed five to Napoli,

542
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 1: can seed one of the first half to Monza, three

543
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: to Adalanta, the regression is coming.

544
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 5: And you know, the market just likes this team a

545
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 5: little bit too much.

546
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 1: I would make this around minus one sixty one sixty five,

547
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 1: and you're getting up to minus two hundred now, so

548
00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 1: I'm gonna play against the event is here. They've got

549
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 1: a tricky situation in the league now, like do they

550
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 1: worry about the Cup, which they have a quarterfinal match

551
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 1: with Lazzio on Wednesday, or are they gonna you know,

552
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 1: they're appealing this decision about fifteen points, but like they

553
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 1: have no real chance at the top four here, so

554
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 1: it is a weird situation and the club's in a

555
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 1: bit of flux here.

556
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 5: So like Man's a plus one on too Spain.

557
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 6: Real Madrid minus won forty three at home to reassociate

558
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 6: dot who are four to one. The draw here is

559
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 6: plus two seventy five. These are two of the three

560
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 6: teams in the title race. Barcelona's at forty four points

561
00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:38,679
Speaker 6: a top the table, Madrid forty one points Associate dot

562
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 6: thirty eight. This is a podcast will at least you two.

563
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,440
Speaker 6: You don't think Real Madrid is is very good? You

564
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 6: say it time and time again, and it looks like

565
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 6: that's going to be the theme here at BJ. We

566
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 6: could start with you.

567
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll be on Associated plus half a goal around

568
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 3: plus one thirty.

569
00:26:58,920 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 2: I mean, here's the reality is.

570
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,120
Speaker 3: I think Sociated that is a very very deserving top

571
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 3: four team and might actually be the third best team

572
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:08,920
Speaker 3: in Spain right now. I mean, if you look through

573
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 3: their defensive performances as of late sixteen of their last

574
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 3: seventeen matches only they've held their opponents under one expected goal.

575
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:21,119
Speaker 3: It's incredibly impressive and the reason for that is they

576
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 3: are now the best pressing team by passes per defensive

577
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 3: action in Spain. They just put up a great performance

578
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:29,479
Speaker 3: against Barcelona and Copa del Rey on Wednesday. It obviously

579
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 3: lost one nothing, but really played well in that match.

580
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 3: And this is another spot where I think they can

581
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 3: absolutely defend against this Real Madrid team. And then even

582
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:43,120
Speaker 3: though Madrid has too many like they're still vulnerable in transition,

583
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 3: like I mentioned it in a few weeks ago, but

584
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 3: like Madrid is conceded in pretty much every single match

585
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 3: in La Liga except for against really really bad offenses.

586
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:56,639
Speaker 3: So there is definitely a world here where sociad can

587
00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 3: go on the road to the Bernabout and win this.

588
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 3: And I think that, you know, Real Madrid is just

589
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 3: a tad overpriced here, so I do like sociate Dad

590
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,399
Speaker 3: plus half a goal plus one thirty. You know, I

591
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 3: only project Real Madrid around minus one twenty, So give

592
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 3: me sociate Dad. This team, this team is really really good,

593
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 3: even though they lost e Shak earlier this season.

594
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, Eshak's finally make a difference for Newcastle. This is

595
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 1: interesting because I think I might bet against Real Madrid

596
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 1: every match for the next month looking at the schedule,

597
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,480
Speaker 1: because they have Madrid in the they have ad Letti

598
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 1: in Nicoba del Ray on Thursday. Will not be fitting

599
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 1: them there. I think the market's about right. I agree

600
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:35,359
Speaker 1: with bj at Sociadad is a clear third in the

601
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: league right now. I think we all have I don't know,

602
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 1: I know we said down the preview show four to one,

603
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 1: top four. I have one sitting on that, so hopefully

604
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 1: we get that to the window. But I think they

605
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 1: Associatedad Valencia, then Majorca on the island. Those are all

606
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 1: gonna be fade spots potentially for Madrid. So I think

607
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: you're gonna see them slip up a little bit here.

608
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 5: But I agree.

609
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 1: I mean the improvements defensively, they're they're not quite at

610
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 1: the peak of the market, like they're getting closer to it.

611
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:02,959
Speaker 1: Like if Rial was you know, minus one ten one

612
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 1: twenty one, I would probably pass here. But if I

613
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:08,239
Speaker 1: can get that full goal on Sociodod, which right now

614
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 1: you have to play a little bit of juice for.

615
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 1: But you know, I'm gonna wait until we get closer

616
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 1: to the game time on Sunday to see Sociodad also

617
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 1: got the extra day arrest. They did have to play

618
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 1: Barsa today. They were down a man the whole second half.

619
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 1: There's a valiant effort to only lose by one. But

620
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 1: yeahs Sociodod improving only have about a half goal difference

621
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 1: between these two teams.

622
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 5: Throwing some home field. I would love the plus one

623
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 5: on sociodd again. I bet it today and the Copa

624
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 5: del Rey and was hanging on for dear life.

625
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 6: Anything else for you in La Liga Bijah.

626
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 3: Of course, Michael, I have a both teams to score

627
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 3: no like I do every single week, which has hit

628
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 3: the last two weeks everybody, So all the haters out

629
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 3: there who love to bring up all these high priced ones.

630
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 3: We had Myorica and Celta Vigo on the island, which

631
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 3: is just a perfect match with absolutely nothing happening. And

632
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 3: I have another match where I think absolutely nothing is

633
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 3: going to happen, and it involves sell to Ego again

634
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 3: against one of our favorite teams, Athletic bill Bao. I mean,

635
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 3: these two teams are both top seven in expected goals allowed. Defensively,

636
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 3: Bill Boo, I mean they are. I mean we've said

637
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 3: it many times. They're pretty much one of the best defenses,

638
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 3: not only in Spain but in all of Europe. They

639
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 3: do an outstanding job of defending their penalty area, and

640
00:30:23,280 --> 00:30:25,959
Speaker 3: this is one of those situations where neither teams really

641
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 3: don't want to control out of possession. Cell to Ego again,

642
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 3: a team that does a fantastic job at defending their

643
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 3: penalty area. I mean, Myorca did score but only created

644
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 3: about half an expected goal at home against them. So

645
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 3: this is just another spot where I think the market

646
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 3: on both teams to score no is very very low.

647
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 3: I mean, the total is sitting at two here, and

648
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 3: we're getting a both team to score no at minus

649
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 3: one twenty. So that's where I'm going here in athletic

650
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 3: bill Boo in cel to digo both teams to score no.

651
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 3: Set the notifications and hope you don't get one until

652
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 3: we hit ninety minutes at minus one twenty, all right, and.

653
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 6: We'll sneak in some legal real quick before we head

654
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 6: out here. We'll talk about Marseilles plus one ten Monica

655
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 6: plus two forty and the draw is plus two sixty here.

656
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,280
Speaker 6: You don't want to do it, I don't think, But yeah,

657
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 6: do you even want to talk about it? Or do

658
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 6: you want to just move on? BJ I'm showing.

659
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 2: Value on Marseille and I don't know why.

660
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 3: I've I've run the calculations over and over again, and

661
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 3: I'm plus one ten is kind of cheap for Marseille

662
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 3: at home. I'll be honest, Even though I hate them,

663
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 3: They're underlying metrics have been pretty good.

664
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 2: They're on a very long wind streak right now.

665
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 3: They beat Monaco just right before the World Cup, although

666
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 3: it was a very very even match. But man, I

667
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 3: don't know if I can do it, but I do

668
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 3: project Marseille at minus one eighteen. So if here's the

669
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 3: problem is that if I do play them, they're going

670
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 3: to lose. I mean, it's going to make me hate

671
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,640
Speaker 3: them even more. So I'm probably just getting a passing

672
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 3: on this. But I mean, Marseille, they're they're a plus

673
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 3: twenty three gold differential and they're sitting at plus ten

674
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 3: expect gold differential. They are in the same realm as Lazio,

675
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 3: where at some point in the future these two teams

676
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 3: are gonna stop running ridiculously hot and they're going to

677
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,720
Speaker 3: turn into what Sevilla is right now in La Liga,

678
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:21,640
Speaker 3: and we are just going to cash fade after fade

679
00:32:21,680 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 3: after fade against them, and guess what, I might not

680
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 3: have any money by the time that day comes.

681
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 2: But it's gonna be a very satisfying day. But I

682
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 2: have to stay away. I can't do it with Marseille.

683
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 6: I did he anything for you in legal?

684
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean I'll talk about this match.

685
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 1: I think that uh BJ's right that, like both teams

686
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 1: are probably a little overvalued. I still make monico about

687
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:47,080
Speaker 1: even with Marseille. I think that there's not a ton

688
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 1: of difference between these two teams. I bet Monicota finished

689
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 1: second in this league after PSG.

690
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 5: They're not too far off.

691
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna get there because Lens looks

692
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 1: like just an absolute wagon this year.

693
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 2: Strasburg can overtake all of them.

694
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 5: Yeah, Strasburg is charging up to say, well the are.

695
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 1: They're gonna avoid the four relegation places since legun is

696
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 1: going to eighteen next year, so they'll be one less

697
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 1: French match for everybody every weekend. But yeah, I mean

698
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 1: from a from a from a betting point of view,

699
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 1: I would need a flat plus a half to bet

700
00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 1: Monico here. Otherwise I'm really not that interested. Like you mentioned,

701
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 1: you know, they've run really good. But this Marseille defense too,

702
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 1: has run great. I mean this whole last run that

703
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 1: they've been on.

704
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 5: They've conceded a goal here or there, but they have

705
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 5: really been successful and shot stopping.

706
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 1: In a way that I don't think is going to continue. Uh,

707
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 1: you know, conceding you know, to one point to lose one. Yes,

708
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 1: they had a couple of good showings against Lorient and TWAB,

709
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 1: but those are two of the worst attacks in the league.

710
00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 1: Like Monico has the firepower, like they're not a bad

711
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 1: attacking team whatsoever. And they have you know between en

712
00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 1: Below and Benette or like, that's a really good partnership.

713
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 5: And they play off each other really well. I mean,

714
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 5: Benyett are very good in crossing and Enblow kind of

715
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 5: you know, ball carrying like that.

716
00:33:57,640 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 1: That's a really effective unit. It's why I like them

717
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 1: coming into season. The defense is not held up its

718
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 1: end of the bargain. But I like this Monico team

719
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 1: enough that if I got a flat half, I'd play

720
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 1: it all right, PJ take.

721
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 6: Us out with another league special.

722
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:13,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, a team that's cost me a ton of money,

723
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 3: but I'm gonna go back to the well ren minus

724
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:18,240
Speaker 3: one pH five on the road at Laurent on Friday.

725
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 3: Lorient just sold their best two attackers, Oatara who's now

726
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 3: at Bournemouth and Malfi looks like he's on his way

727
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 3: to west Ham. Both of those guys are around aero

728
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:30,439
Speaker 3: point five XG plus expected assist per ninety minutes, which

729
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 3: is basically the entire Lorient attack. And this Lorient team,

730
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 3: they're pretty high up the table, but they have just

731
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 3: been running ridiculously well. I mean October twenty third is

732
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 3: the last time that they actually won the expected goals battle,

733
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 3: and they've actually played some decent competition as of late.

734
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:49,919
Speaker 3: They got pumped by Marseille coming out of the World

735
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 3: Cup break. They drew with Monico but lost the expected

736
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:55,719
Speaker 3: goals battle. They beat on Jaars despite conceding over to

737
00:34:56,040 --> 00:35:00,360
Speaker 3: expected goals. And this Ren team is a real, really

738
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 3: good attack They just beat PSG one nothing. They've created

739
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:05,920
Speaker 3: over one and a half expected goal in three of

740
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 3: their last five matches, so I do project them at

741
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 3: minus one twenty eight. So I think this is a

742
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 3: really really good fade spot for Lorient, who just lost

743
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 3: their two best attackers.

744
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 6: All right, that does it for this part of wonder goal.

745
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:17,640
Speaker 6: But to be sure to stick around so you can

746
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 6: listen to our interview with Eric Wanalda of the Or

747
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 6: formerly of the US men's national team. We talked more

748
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 6: about g Arena and that soap opera. We talked about

749
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:28,799
Speaker 6: the soap opera at the bottom of the Preier League,

750
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:31,799
Speaker 6: and we talked about Leeds United buying every American player

751
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 6: known to man, So be sure to stick around for that.

752
00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,320
Speaker 6: But for bj Kunny and Anthony Dubundo, Michel Lee Buffin

753
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 6: will wish you best of luck with all your bets

754
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:43,800
Speaker 6: for now. All right, once again we are happy to

755
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 6: be joined by former US men's national team start Eric

756
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 6: Wranalda talk about some of the non betting stuff going

757
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 6: on around the world of football, the beautiful game. Eric,

758
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:59,680
Speaker 6: let's start with Wes McKenny. His move to Leeds looks

759
00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 6: and I guess the best question I want to ask

760
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:07,359
Speaker 6: is how should American soccer fans feel about I feel

761
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 6: like we see every once in a while, these these

762
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 6: English Premier League teams start to like dip in double

763
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 6: dip into American players and start to kind of galvanize

764
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 6: the USMNT fan base around them. So now they got Marsh,

765
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:22,800
Speaker 6: they got Aaronson, they got Tyler Adams. What does that

766
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 6: say like kind of about the direction that Jesse Marsh

767
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 6: has taking this club? And how would you say that

768
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 6: American soccer fans should feel Because I mean, I think

769
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 6: it's cool, but I mean I'm not a Leeds fan.

770
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 6: I'm an everdon fan. And I remember with like Brian

771
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:38,120
Speaker 6: when Brian McBride and then Donovan and then Tim Howard

772
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 6: and it was a point of pride. But at the

773
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 6: same time, it's like it is a little peculiar.

774
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 4: Well yeah, this feels like Fulham all over again, right

775
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 4: because right, yeah, and that gang. But a couple of things.

776
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,240
Speaker 4: I mean, you can blame this all on Harrison. Harrison

777
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 4: was the first one to go to Leeds came from

778
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:57,919
Speaker 4: MLS n y CFC and convince them that you could

779
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 4: come from America and be a great contributor because he

780
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:05,279
Speaker 4: had a great year last year for the club and

781
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 4: the realities of Tyler Adams in his inclusion in this

782
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 4: team Aaronson was way overpriced in my opinion, thirty million

783
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 4: for that great that it's a big number, but it

784
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 4: also brings some added pressure he was ready for and

785
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,880
Speaker 4: he's starting to his form is starting to falter a

786
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 4: little bit. It does cause an issue, man, I mean,

787
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 4: let's face it, this is an American coach who's now

788
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 4: bringing in another American player and an American coach with

789
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 4: Chris Armis. As long as he can get the work permit,

790
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 4: he will be the remember him. He was brought in

791
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 4: by Ralph Ryernick, who is also Ryanick was the guy

792
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 4: that was a part of Red Bull brought that's championed

793
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 4: Jesse marsh in the first place, so it's all kind

794
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:52,239
Speaker 4: of connected. But all things being equal, the bottom line

795
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 4: is is this the best move for Weston McKinney, And

796
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:55,400
Speaker 4: the answer.

797
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 2: Is probably no.

798
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 4: I don't know what will happen in the end of

799
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 4: the day. We just saw, you know, a player get

800
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 4: hijacked who's all signed up to go to Everton ended

801
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 4: up at tading them and this is happening. These are

802
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 4: odd times and crucial moments in the last six days

803
00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 4: of a transfer window. Who knows what might end up happening.

804
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 6: The offer is.

805
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:21,919
Speaker 4: Twenty eight million, that's what Leeds is saying that they're

806
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 4: willing to pay for Weston McKinney, which is a good number.

807
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:27,440
Speaker 4: It's a fair number, and with Juventus' problems right now,

808
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 4: they actually have multiple players who are now being accused

809
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 4: of falsely registering what their salaries are, so they're looking

810
00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 4: at another investigation on top of the fifteen points they

811
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:41,359
Speaker 4: just lost. So they're looking to get not jump ship,

812
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 4: but get guys, a couple of guys to walk the

813
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 4: plank and try and get some money out of them.

814
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 4: Twenty eight is a fair offer. Juventus is asking for

815
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 4: thirty five, so that's the only sticking point right now.

816
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:54,359
Speaker 4: The bottom line is we're two or three days away

817
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 4: from Arsenal saying we'll take them, We'll give you forty.

818
00:38:57,680 --> 00:38:59,839
Speaker 4: We lost Madric anyway, we were willing to give up

819
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 4: sixty seventy and we lost him, so maybe we'll jump

820
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:07,960
Speaker 4: into that. So this thing, this thing could take another turn.

821
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 4: That's what people need to understand. The concerning part for

822
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 4: me and being a guy that played in Europe and

823
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 4: got relegated. Got I broke my leg and watched my

824
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 4: team get relegated, which was horrible, But this would be

825
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 4: a horrible story. Guys, if three Americans are part of

826
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 4: a team that goes down, that's the only concern I have.

827
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:27,000
Speaker 4: I know you guys don't think that that's a realistic possibility,

828
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:30,320
Speaker 4: but this is football. Anything can happen, and I'm concerned

829
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:34,279
Speaker 4: about that component of it. Jesse Marsh is a very man.

830
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:36,880
Speaker 4: He's a kind of a manager. He's a friend. I

831
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 4: played with him, we played together in Chicago. We talked,

832
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:43,760
Speaker 4: not regularly anymore, but we used to. He's got great ideas.

833
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 4: He turned down Everton for this, so you got to

834
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 4: keep that in mind. He's a guy that's not afraid

835
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:53,399
Speaker 4: to go for it. He's not afraid to walk right

836
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:58,719
Speaker 4: into that fire. So that's a pretty risky scenario, and

837
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 4: the risk reward of this is pretty clear. I think

838
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 4: they stay in. I think Western if they get it

839
00:40:05,160 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 4: done in the next twenty four to forty eight hours,

840
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 4: is going to be playing for Leeds. If they don't,

841
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:13,880
Speaker 4: there's gonna be a couple of other other places. Remember

842
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 4: he originally said no to Aniamory at Aston Villa, but

843
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:21,799
Speaker 4: when he said no, that was twelve points ago. Eston

844
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 4: Villa is in a completely different scenario, and who knows

845
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 4: what what kind of pitch is coming weston McKinney's agent's

846
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 4: way after this really good run from an Im Ray's team.

847
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 4: So aston Villa might be a destination. Arsenal still might

848
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 4: be a destination, but Leeds is to forefront.

849
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:40,800
Speaker 5: What does the fit look like.

850
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 1: I mean they already have Raka in Adams Aaronson fits

851
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 1: into that midfield a little bit. I mean it's a

852
00:40:45,239 --> 00:40:47,759
Speaker 1: little bit crowded. Is he getting like you see him

853
00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 1: getting first team minutes how regularly?

854
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 4: Yeah? I don't think they don't like Roca. I mean

855
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:55,959
Speaker 4: you watch his mannerisms, especially when he comes off the bench.

856
00:40:56,680 --> 00:41:00,160
Speaker 4: He's a little volatile, He's he does give the all

857
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 4: the way a lot. Watch him in sixty seventy eighty

858
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 4: minute mark. He has to get subbs because he's still

859
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 4: making stills trying to make the same pass and they're

860
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 4: reading it. These are the kind of principles that that

861
00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:12,800
Speaker 4: Jesse Marsh is going to get angry about. But the

862
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:14,880
Speaker 4: good thing about Jesse to answer I mean to you

863
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 4: about Weston, to answer your question, is he's been playing

864
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 4: wing back recently for for Juventus and and and show

865
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 4: He's showed me something I didn't know he had in

866
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 4: his toolboxes. That's to get to the line at speed

867
00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 4: and hit somebody in the eyebrow. That that's something I

868
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 4: didn't know that he had the capability of doing. So

869
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 4: the versatility of Western McKinney might be another pitch point.

870
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 6: You know.

871
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 3: Giorina obviously too, has been on fire, you know, coming

872
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 3: out of the World Cup break to game winning goals

873
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 3: against Augsburg and then today against Minds. Obviously he is

874
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 3: one of the United States best talents that we have.

875
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 3: And obviously, you know, the whole saga has gone on

876
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:57,400
Speaker 3: and everything like that. But what I'm more interested in

877
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 3: is that is Geo going to stay at Dorton potentially

878
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 3: long term and if he does, potentially go somewhere. And

879
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:06,120
Speaker 3: this is kind of a two part question because now

880
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 3: with Pulistitch looking like he's not gonna get very much

881
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:12,320
Speaker 3: minutes for Chelsea, is there a possibility that Leeds just

882
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:14,920
Speaker 3: turns into Team USA and they just bring all the

883
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 3: Americans over and see if we can win the premiarily

884
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 3: that way.

885
00:42:18,320 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 4: It's contingent on one thing. It's Jesse Morris keeps his job.

886
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:24,759
Speaker 4: I mean, there's a lot to learn for Jesse in

887
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:27,800
Speaker 4: this realm. I watched him really struggle with some of

888
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 4: the cultural differences that exists in Germany because he missed

889
00:42:32,520 --> 00:42:34,880
Speaker 4: the mark a bunch of times in that deal. And

890
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 4: there's a couple of them where I you know, I

891
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:39,879
Speaker 4: sent a message over to him, don't do that, don't

892
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:42,959
Speaker 4: do that German scandal and there's a couple of things

893
00:42:43,080 --> 00:42:46,800
Speaker 4: like that that I would I would say exists in

894
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 4: England as well. I mean, look, Pullistick is probably going

895
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:54,040
Speaker 4: to to ac Milan. I think that that's that's one

896
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:56,719
Speaker 4: piece of it. Going back to Geo, though, how do

897
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:59,439
Speaker 4: you think this all started? They had a huge deal

898
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:01,759
Speaker 4: on the table for him to move to a massive club,

899
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 4: and when he didn't play, that deal was off. Now

900
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 4: you started this conversation, unfortunately with obviously he's one of

901
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 4: the best players in our country. Well it's not that

902
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 4: obvious to Greg Burholter. Who wants him to play a system,

903
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:18,319
Speaker 4: who chose a guy in Tim Waya over him multiple times,

904
00:43:18,360 --> 00:43:20,800
Speaker 4: who's now playing left back for his club in France.

905
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:23,880
Speaker 4: Let's just think about that for a second. I mean,

906
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 4: the reality is is that maybe we had better players

907
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 4: and Tim Waya was our left back and Weston McKinney

908
00:43:29,560 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 4: was our right back because I haven't been impressed with

909
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 4: Desk at all, and we could have seen a very

910
00:43:33,360 --> 00:43:36,880
Speaker 4: different midfield and a very different forward line. These are

911
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 4: all choices that Greg Burholter made, but they certainly dictated

912
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 4: the conversation. When it came to Geoorana's next destination, it

913
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 4: was a big one.

914
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 2: I do know that for a fact.

915
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 4: And when it didn't happen, that's where all this disappointment

916
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 4: is coming from. He was going to make a big move.

917
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 4: It was going to be seventy eighty million, and it

918
00:43:59,160 --> 00:44:02,320
Speaker 4: just didn't happen. Now, his response to that and the

919
00:44:02,719 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 4: you know, the two fingers in the ears and the

920
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:07,760
Speaker 4: Memphis to Pi. That's a direct shot at Greg Burholter

921
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:10,319
Speaker 4: for saying we don't have a Memphis to Pie right

922
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:13,759
Speaker 4: now scoring goals in the Champions League. And that is

923
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 4: if you didn't know Memphis de Pie's signature celebration that

924
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:23,479
Speaker 4: I can't hear you. All of this is a mess.

925
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:26,799
Speaker 4: I mean, what happened is terrible, and it's it's it's

926
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 4: obscene and ludicrous and really amateur. But you know, it's

927
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:34,800
Speaker 4: really unfortunate that geos And in the middle of that,

928
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 4: the one thing I would add is how about that

929
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:41,879
Speaker 4: for a response? Are you kidding me to come into

930
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 4: those scenarios? On all? Everybody? Everybody has had something to

931
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:48,800
Speaker 4: say about this. I'll have I read in an article

932
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,279
Speaker 4: this morning in the La Times from a guy named

933
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 4: Kevin Baxter. Sorry, Kevin, you know nothing about football or sports.

934
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 4: Don't ever do that again. You're embarrassing yourself. But there's

935
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:02,360
Speaker 4: been taking shots at this kid left and right, and

936
00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:05,759
Speaker 4: you have Jude Billiam texting out, you know, love for

937
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:10,719
Speaker 4: number seven. This more than anything has proven that that

938
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 4: yes Giororana could handle it. Yes he had every right

939
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:15,960
Speaker 4: to be pissed off that he wasn't in the team. Yes,

940
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 4: Greg Burholter got it wrong, and he should have never

941
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 4: lied about the status of the player in the first place.

942
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 4: And it just illuminates the fact that we had a

943
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 4: manager who could not handle a player of his caliber

944
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:32,480
Speaker 4: and a player of his ego. And here's the last

945
00:45:32,520 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 4: part to that.

946
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:35,760
Speaker 2: So we want guys to have a big ego.

947
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 4: What do we want everybody to just just say yes,

948
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:40,719
Speaker 4: sir and go out there and be a robot. No,

949
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 4: that's why he's a good player. That's why he's flourishing

950
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,319
Speaker 4: in Germany is because they let him play. And by

951
00:45:47,360 --> 00:45:50,040
Speaker 4: the way, they also explained to him before the game,

952
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:53,920
Speaker 4: you're not going to start today. And here's why that.

953
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:57,840
Speaker 4: It's pretty simple, guys, it's not you're not in my plans,

954
00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:01,320
Speaker 4: so just behave or okay, here's what we're gonna do.

955
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 4: I think this is a really good game for you.

956
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 4: Come in at the end, get us a goal. There's

957
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 4: a big difference between those two conversations, and there's a

958
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 4: respect issue that that that certainly doesn't know that no

959
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:15,279
Speaker 4: longer exists when we're talking about Greg Berhold. So I

960
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:19,719
Speaker 4: am so just blown away by his response and his

961
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:22,920
Speaker 4: ability to come up big for his club in two

962
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 4: very crucial moments. Those are four points that that that

963
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 4: they needed. They were vital vital. I mean fire work

964
00:46:29,640 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 4: has dropped them two to two to six, and Dortmund

965
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:33,719
Speaker 4: has passed them now and now now it's time to

966
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 4: beat Leverkus and be real again. And they're not in

967
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:39,280
Speaker 4: that position without a twenty year old kid that America

968
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 4: doesn't value. So I think that at some point his

969
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:46,399
Speaker 4: play at at Dortmant will dictate an eighty million dollar

970
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:49,759
Speaker 4: transfer somewhere, and that'll be right along the lines of

971
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:54,359
Speaker 4: Jaden Sancho, Dimble Arling, Holland and everybody else that's come

972
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:57,399
Speaker 4: out of Dortmund over the last couple of years, because

973
00:46:57,400 --> 00:46:59,360
Speaker 4: they do the business of football better than anybody.

974
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:03,640
Speaker 6: All right, let's shift gears from that soap opera to

975
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 6: a team that probably does the business of football worse

976
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:09,560
Speaker 6: than anybody at the moment. That's Everden, And we'll look

977
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 6: at the relegation battle right now in the Premier League.

978
00:47:13,080 --> 00:47:16,200
Speaker 6: Bournemouth at Bet three six five are wonderful sponsors, are

979
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 6: minus three thirty four favorites to go down. But Everton

980
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:21,839
Speaker 6: and Southampton are both odds on minus one sixty three each,

981
00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:25,440
Speaker 6: and then Wolves, Nottingham, Forced, Leicester and Leads all between

982
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:28,840
Speaker 6: plus two forty and plus three fifty. My question is

983
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:33,160
Speaker 6: surrounding Everdon. I hate Everton. I'm an Everton fan, but

984
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 6: I hate them. And when a club is like this,

985
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 6: you know, I don't know how much experience you've talked

986
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:43,160
Speaker 6: about going down when you were in Germany, but when

987
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:45,440
Speaker 6: a club is circling the drain like this and it's

988
00:47:45,520 --> 00:47:48,800
Speaker 6: just an absolute you know. I think Andy Hunter and

989
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 6: the Guardian called it a civil war, and I think

990
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:54,960
Speaker 6: that's pretty app as a player, like what do you do?

991
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 4: Like?

992
00:47:56,120 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 5: How can you?

993
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:59,120
Speaker 6: How can you? It's one thing to say drown out

994
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:01,240
Speaker 6: the noise, but it seems it possible.

995
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 4: And when it gets like this, well, look, I managed

996
00:48:04,040 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 4: a team here in Las Vegas and I had a

997
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 4: horrible owner and he and are My idea of the

998
00:48:10,080 --> 00:48:12,880
Speaker 4: way that football club should be run was very different

999
00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:17,080
Speaker 4: than his, and there was just a constant bashing of

1000
00:48:17,600 --> 00:48:20,240
Speaker 4: heads when it came to that stuff. And then the manager.

1001
00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 4: The reason why Frank you know, before he was let go,

1002
00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 4: was so beloved is because he protected players from that

1003
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:30,080
Speaker 4: and then he eventually ended one route with one guy

1004
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:33,520
Speaker 4: because it and it got out of control, and then

1005
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 4: that was the reasoning behind letting him go. The one

1006
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:41,200
Speaker 4: thing that stayed consistent though, guys, whether it's Rafa beneath

1007
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 4: his whether it's Ancelotti, can you all go all the

1008
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:47,839
Speaker 4: way back to Silva or even Martinez, I mean, it's

1009
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 4: it has been the consistent component of every time this

1010
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:55,200
Speaker 4: team starts to figure itself out, and the post Moy's era,

1011
00:48:57,080 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 4: they just they just they just can't unicate. And that's

1012
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:04,560
Speaker 4: a reflection of ownership, that's a reflection of hiring the

1013
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:09,359
Speaker 4: wrong people who manage the right people sometimes. So we're

1014
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 4: seeing this right now with Levy at at Tottenham. Tottenham

1015
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:14,880
Speaker 4: has got a problem and as long as Levy is

1016
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:17,000
Speaker 4: there that they're going to continue to have a problem

1017
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:20,640
Speaker 4: because they just can't get over themselves. Everton's has a

1018
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 4: similar issue. They are circling the drain. I do think

1019
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 4: they go down, and the main reason is because and

1020
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:30,839
Speaker 4: if they make a couple of moves and and they

1021
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 4: try to cash in, they're going to need some really

1022
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 4: smart people to get some undervalued players who are who

1023
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 4: are hungry to keep them in. But that that usually

1024
00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:43,160
Speaker 4: doesn't work and you can't put all your your money

1025
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:46,080
Speaker 4: into one one guy, so it just looks bad. But

1026
00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:48,239
Speaker 4: this is on the management more than anything else. I

1027
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:52,399
Speaker 4: feel bad for Frank because that's that's two shots kind

1028
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:55,400
Speaker 4: of thrown out of Chelsea and now thrown out of Everton,

1029
00:49:55,480 --> 00:49:58,320
Speaker 4: and I don't I really don't think in this occasion

1030
00:49:58,400 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 4: this was his fault.

1031
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 1: That kind of transitions to the to the question I had,

1032
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:04,960
Speaker 1: which was, you know, we saw Gerard get the job

1033
00:50:05,040 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 1: at Villa and that didn't go particularly well, and now

1034
00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:10,560
Speaker 1: they're playing better under Emery. We saw Lampard seem to

1035
00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 1: improve Everton, but things have evolved around him. What about

1036
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:16,600
Speaker 1: you know, those two guys, you know, being high profile

1037
00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:19,360
Speaker 1: players like they were hasn't translated that well to coaching.

1038
00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:21,439
Speaker 5: Do you think that's part of it? And what about

1039
00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 5: a player makes a good coach? You've done both? Like

1040
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:25,360
Speaker 5: what is your experience there and.

1041
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:26,239
Speaker 6: What you look for?

1042
00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:30,399
Speaker 4: Well, I tell everybody I was a lousy player. That's

1043
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:34,799
Speaker 4: why I'm a good coach, right, So the the truth

1044
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:37,840
Speaker 4: of that is it's it comes down to the person

1045
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:41,239
Speaker 4: and your ability to communicate with people. That's all I mean.

1046
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 4: If you don't have the ability to connect and communicate.

1047
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:49,799
Speaker 4: And I was I witnessed Stephen Girard here is as

1048
00:50:49,840 --> 00:50:53,000
Speaker 4: beautiful as a player as he was that he was

1049
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 4: god awful in la He was miserable and it was

1050
00:50:57,280 --> 00:51:00,239
Speaker 4: terrible to even to be around that situation. And of

1051
00:51:00,280 --> 00:51:03,400
Speaker 4: course they were he as being a legend out of

1052
00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:05,279
Speaker 4: Liverpool and being what he was able to bring to

1053
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:09,160
Speaker 4: that team as a leader on the field. He's just

1054
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 4: not good at all at at galvanizing a team or

1055
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:16,200
Speaker 4: getting people on the on board. It's not even about

1056
00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:19,680
Speaker 4: tactics anymore. It's just about the reality of who he

1057
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:23,239
Speaker 4: is and his inability to calm people down. They all

1058
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:26,600
Speaker 4: just stiffen up around him, and that's that's a problem.

1059
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 4: That's a problem. I mean, you can say what you

1060
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:30,600
Speaker 4: want about guys like Jose Mourinho or Ancelotti, but they

1061
00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:33,840
Speaker 4: have a way about them that allows the player to

1062
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:37,560
Speaker 4: just just go out there and do their thing. And

1063
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 4: Anchilai was a great player, he really was. Jose Mourinhos sucked.

1064
00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:44,840
Speaker 4: I played against club. He was terrible at minds. He

1065
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:46,760
Speaker 4: taught me how to eat a pretzel, but that's about

1066
00:51:46,880 --> 00:51:49,640
Speaker 4: all I got out of him. But he is a

1067
00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:51,880
Speaker 4: guy that you want to play for. You have to

1068
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:55,920
Speaker 4: ask yourself that, and you know some guys haven't. Some

1069
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 4: guys don't. It doesn't. It doesn't always mean that if

1070
00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:00,360
Speaker 4: you're a great player, that equates to a great knowledge

1071
00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:03,960
Speaker 4: in a menagerial role. It doesn't always work out.

1072
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:08,600
Speaker 6: Awesome. Well, Eric, thank you again for your time tonight,

1073
00:52:09,040 --> 00:52:09,759
Speaker 6: and you're insight.

1074
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:12,400
Speaker 4: I got a fourteen year old man, my son turned fourteen.

1075
00:52:12,560 --> 00:52:17,200
Speaker 4: He's uh, it's it's it's really cool. He's good. He's good.

1076
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:21,880
Speaker 4: I keep running into this whole raina problem though. Everybody

1077
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:25,080
Speaker 4: just keeps making jokes about it because wondering what kind

1078
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:28,640
Speaker 4: of soccer dad I am. So I've got I stay

1079
00:52:28,680 --> 00:52:30,080
Speaker 4: out of it. I let him do his thing, but

1080
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:31,800
Speaker 4: this is it's his birthday. I'm gonna go buy a

1081
00:52:31,880 --> 00:52:34,799
Speaker 4: mistake and see if we can put some more hair

1082
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:37,040
Speaker 4: on the I was gonna say chess, but it's probably

1083
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:38,120
Speaker 4: pretty much his armpits.

1084
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 6: Well, enjoy that and thanks for joining us here. I'm wonderful.

1085
00:52:43,360 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 6: The Soccer Beanning podcast from the Action Network.

1086
00:52:46,640 --> 00:52:47,879
Speaker 4: You got it, guys. Thanks.

1087
00:52:54,680 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1088
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 5: someone you caret has a gambling problem. Help is available

1089
00:53:02,600 --> 00:53:05,080
Speaker 5: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler