WEBVTT - Joe Gilbert on the Markets (Radio) (Correct)

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<v Speaker 1>All right, let's get to the next guess. Joe Gilbert's

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<v Speaker 1>portfolio managed yet Integrity Asset Management discussing the latest on

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<v Speaker 1>the markets, Joe Wilkins is a program. It does seem

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<v Speaker 1>as that what we had was certainly look at what

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<v Speaker 1>inflation was doing for the last few weeks and not

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<v Speaker 1>looking at the growth picture. Has that been a tilt? No, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for having me on. And you know, I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know necessarily if there's been a tilt. I think the

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<v Speaker 1>market that you know, likes to focus on what it

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<v Speaker 1>you know, what's in front of it. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we have the GDP numbers that come out and we're

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<v Speaker 1>more focused on the growth aspects, we get CPI and

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<v Speaker 1>then the market pivots to more inflation where they're they're

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<v Speaker 1>both are are are big concerns growth and inflation because

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<v Speaker 1>one is running too hot and one is UM. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we fear is running a lot lower than people expect

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<v Speaker 1>right now. So you know, I think right now the

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<v Speaker 1>market is probably ripe to focus on inflation, especially this

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<v Speaker 1>week with Jackson Hole, because that's what UM chairman Pale

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<v Speaker 1>is gonna focus on and where he is to markets

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<v Speaker 1>and how he how strongly he talks down. Inflation is

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<v Speaker 1>gonna pay pivotal how UM, recess has performed this week,

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<v Speaker 1>So inflation, if it is turning, is not so bad

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<v Speaker 1>if you have growth. Um, we did have a strong

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<v Speaker 1>job report, we had a strong services p m I,

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<v Speaker 1>and we had companies announced earnings that were pretty solid

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<v Speaker 1>on the week side, we have a market signal, we

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<v Speaker 1>have the inversion of the yield curve, which suggests recession

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<v Speaker 1>is coming. Um. What else are you looking at to

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<v Speaker 1>figure out that formula? You know? You know, I think

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<v Speaker 1>right there in your question that you have some some

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<v Speaker 1>good road maps there because I think what has happened

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<v Speaker 1>here is that you know, we the market looks at

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<v Speaker 1>the jobless the job numbers, which we were very strong,

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<v Speaker 1>as you alluded to, UM, and then we have all

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<v Speaker 1>the you know, the services p m I which was strong.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of these these indicators are are backward looking.

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<v Speaker 1>So you have right now that so the Fed will

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<v Speaker 1>will talk about how strong the economy is, but it

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<v Speaker 1>really should be saying how strong the economy was. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think that is actually where we're gonna have this

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<v Speaker 1>disconnect because if they keep layering on more and more

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<v Speaker 1>rate hikes, in the midst of these lagging indicators. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that that's how you get caught off size there,

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<v Speaker 1>and then we end up in a situation where the

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<v Speaker 1>FED is going to need to cut a lot sooner

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<v Speaker 1>than they are suggesting that they want to. So the

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<v Speaker 1>question is, then, I suppose you know, with all the

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<v Speaker 1>information available, Joe, how how do you take invest of

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<v Speaker 1>that money? I mean, is this the time to be

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<v Speaker 1>looking at some of those equity or so I say,

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<v Speaker 1>industry groups that should performed badly Again, you've gotta be

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<v Speaker 1>selective here and look at them once again. Uh, that's

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<v Speaker 1>exactly right. That's that's how we're we're playing it right now.

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<v Speaker 1>We look at it as the first and first out

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<v Speaker 1>market UM. And what I mean by that is at

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<v Speaker 1>the beginning of the year UM, we had a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of technology stocks, a lot of the earlier cycle cyclical

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<v Speaker 1>companies UM sell off. And then you add on the

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<v Speaker 1>flip side, the you know, more of the lagging companies

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<v Speaker 1>and sectors such as energy were the ones that performed strongly.

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<v Speaker 1>So we think right now what we've had is we've

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<v Speaker 1>had a pivot in the market. So what we're doing

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<v Speaker 1>is we're just looking at more of the consumer discretionary names,

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<v Speaker 1>which sold off strongly in the beginning in the first

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<v Speaker 1>quarter of the year, some of the semiconductor names, some

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<v Speaker 1>of housing names, because we think that's the contrarian play.

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<v Speaker 1>But we also think that those sectors have already just counted,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a recession, whether it be mild or severe.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think that that is where you're gonna have

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<v Speaker 1>the opportunities, and that's what you're gonna have the evaluation

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<v Speaker 1>protection on the downside. Yeah, that's very interesting. I I

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<v Speaker 1>let's focus on housing for a moment, then, because you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we got some data last week that spooked a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people. Housing starts. We're down nine point six percent,

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<v Speaker 1>and that sounds bad, but it's actually good for for

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<v Speaker 1>the builders. It's it's good for prices, and so it's

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<v Speaker 1>probably good for people. The homebuilders have learned a lot

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<v Speaker 1>since the GFC. Uh. They're shutting down the housing stars

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<v Speaker 1>because they don't want a glut. But what some people

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<v Speaker 1>would like to see is a glut because that would

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<v Speaker 1>really bring down prices, and and that's not this no,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think that you're you're right there. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>the housing the home builders have gotten religion they're managing

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<v Speaker 1>their business a lot, you know, a lot more smartly

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<v Speaker 1>than they previously have, so I we don't expect there

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<v Speaker 1>would be a glut of inventory, and so with that

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<v Speaker 1>that allows them to be able to be a lot

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<v Speaker 1>more strategic and when they actually are building homes and

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<v Speaker 1>making sure that the houses that they sell are going

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<v Speaker 1>to be as profitable now as they were personally, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>a year ago. So I think that is the opportunity there. Unfortunately,

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<v Speaker 1>as you also alluded to, that prevents home prices from

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<v Speaker 1>really dramatically falling, and that owner's equivalent rent aspect of

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<v Speaker 1>it that goes into the CPI from really falling um

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<v Speaker 1>dramatically as well. Mhm, Joe, how does okay, we talk

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<v Speaker 1>about what's going on with interest rate hikes, but how

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<v Speaker 1>does quoditative tightening at the moment effect the way you

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<v Speaker 1>look at investment? And I'll top of that, what have

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<v Speaker 1>we seen so far? Are we seeing any impact from it?

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<v Speaker 1>You know? You know, right now, I think we're we're

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<v Speaker 1>really on the precipice of actually feeling any of the

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<v Speaker 1>quantitative tightening. I think I'm being honest, we haven't really

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<v Speaker 1>even felt this full scale of interest rate hikes UM

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<v Speaker 1>quantitative tightening. You know it's going to be full scale

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<v Speaker 1>UM starting uh next month. UM are are What we

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<v Speaker 1>think is, you know, the market isn't really factoring in

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<v Speaker 1>that quantitative tightening alone this year is roughly equal to

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five basis point of a rate hike. So we

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<v Speaker 1>think that you know that is there's additional tightening going

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<v Speaker 1>on in the system. There's additional tightening with the money supply,

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<v Speaker 1>with money supply coming out of the system. So all

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<v Speaker 1>of these things actually bode well for inflation coming down.

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<v Speaker 1>We just have to get to the point is inflation

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<v Speaker 1>gonna come down fast enough or rapidly enough that that

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<v Speaker 1>the FED is actually lend the pulse. Alright, Joe, I

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<v Speaker 1>like your style direct very good. Thank you for joining

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<v Speaker 1>us here live, particularly on your Sunday evening. Kill Gilbert,

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<v Speaker 1>portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management,