1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Lee. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Francie 5 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: Laquad Queen Victoria Street and she is with David folks 6 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: Landa as well. Francying just an extraordinary research piece from DFL. 7 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: This really harkens back to his thoughtful pieces decades ago. 8 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:45,839 Speaker 1: And I'd like to go to a piece of this 9 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 1: right now for Francy, for you to bring up the 10 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:52,960 Speaker 1: conversation with DFL negative interest rates and they have a 11 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 1: punishment to them, the aggressive implementation of a new regulatory 12 00:00:56,840 --> 00:01:00,080 Speaker 1: regime and the failure to create a unified homemark. It 13 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: are this rating bank profitability. Needless to say, since the 14 00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:08,839 Speaker 1: introduction of negative interest rates, EU banks have lost two 15 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 1: fifths of their market value, while US banks have gained 16 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 1: the same amount. It is inappropriate for DFL to speak 17 00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:19,560 Speaker 1: of transactions of German banks, but Francine certainly he can 18 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:23,399 Speaker 1: speak to a larger bank banking system. Right now, how 19 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 1: do we clear this mess David, I'll tell me what 20 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:32,440 Speaker 1: first needs to understand that there in modern economies, the 21 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 1: intermedia is financial intermedia is are key to making it work. 22 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:39,400 Speaker 1: They're not just there to take the positis and make loans, 23 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:41,960 Speaker 1: but they allocate credit. And they's just key if if 24 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,680 Speaker 1: banks don't if banks are sick, economies don't do well. 25 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 1: That's sort of a fundamental proposition. And once you see that, 26 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 1: then you get worried because then you see the European 27 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: banking system compared to the US, is in dire straits. 28 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 1: In all the normal metrics of return on assets, return 29 00:01:56,560 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 1: on tangible equity, uh that interest margins, European banks are 30 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 1: pale shadow compared to the Americans, and so it's very 31 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:08,800 Speaker 1: very difficult for them to making money, to organically raise capital, 32 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 1: organically deal with non performing loans. And there's a history 33 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: to this, of course, and sen sense. The Americans were 34 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 1: restructured early after the crisis. In Europe didn't do that, 35 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: so we had we had a lot of legacy issues 36 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,079 Speaker 1: in the banking system. But this is a serious problem 37 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: and and and it affects fundamental verbles like productivity. As 38 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,720 Speaker 1: I said before, if you have to make loans when 39 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 1: you capital constraint, you stay with you stay with with 40 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 1: the with the borrowers where you already have your money. 41 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 1: You don't take it from him and give it to 42 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:36,640 Speaker 1: new borrowers, because then you've got it write down the 43 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: old money. So and that requires capital. So you have 44 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 1: all kinds of of inflexibilities in the system that developed 45 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 1: when you were When you were are not profitable, so 46 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 1: profitability is important. What kind of banking system does Europe 47 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: actually need? It's pretty straightforward what has to be done. 48 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 1: We need to have a unified banking system. The only 49 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 1: one percent of household loans come from across border. Now 50 00:03:00,440 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: imagine if we talk about single markets for twenty four 51 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: hours a day. Yet the borrowers in Italy don't borrow 52 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 1: from German banks. In German banks don't lend to Spanish borrowers, 53 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 1: not because they don't onto it, because there's just so 54 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 1: many hindrances going across borders. So the completion of the 55 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 1: banking union and of the capital markets union is the 56 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 1: first thing that has to go done. And this is 57 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: where I keep criticizing the European authorities that it's so 58 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: easy to do these things. I want to do these 59 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 1: things with monetary policy. But that's a very blunt tool 60 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:31,359 Speaker 1: to steer an economy when when you're failing to do 61 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: the more elementary but also the hardest stuff, namely the 62 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 1: completion of the single market. D David focused lend does 63 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 1: thriank you so much? For our US audience, particularly a 64 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: US drive time audience, There's no I think that's going 65 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: to make you turn the channel like another discussion of Brexit. 66 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 1: But we can do that, and we can make it 67 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 1: charming and lovely. Always with Anna Edwards, Chief Brexit corresponded. 68 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 1: Anna helped the US audience here with an absolutely original phrase, 69 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 1: an indicative vote. What is an indicative vote? Well, good 70 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 1: morning to you, Tom and Jonathan. We're all on a 71 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 1: on a big learning cave when it comes to Brexit. 72 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: Another part at the twist and turning Brexit process for 73 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 1: you this morning. Indicative votes. So basically the way this goes. 74 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 1: MP spend today coming up with options that they see 75 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 1: for a way forward on Brexit. They suggest those to 76 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: the Speaker of the House. Do you remember him, John Burgo, 77 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: the one who shouts order, order a lot. He comes 78 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:47,280 Speaker 1: up with this list. The list goes on a piece 79 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 1: of paper and then they all rank which options they 80 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 1: would tolerate, which ones they would like, which ones they 81 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:56,239 Speaker 1: could hold their nose and vote for. And then after 82 00:04:56,279 --> 00:05:00,080 Speaker 1: that process next Monday, the top few get debated and 83 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: and Parliament craft some sort of preference out of all 84 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 1: of that. Oh, that's wonderful, except that reads like that 85 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:10,280 Speaker 1: required summer reading, seventh grade Lord of the Flies. I mean, 86 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 1: this is not, you know, required democracy as well. It's 87 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 1: unusual who controls this process or does it turn into 88 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:25,640 Speaker 1: something completely original for the home of constitutional law. It 89 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:27,919 Speaker 1: does seem as if a lot of what we're seeing 90 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 1: in this Brexit process is being i mean being crafted creatively, 91 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 1: shall we put it up to now? What we've seen 92 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 1: a lot is the government bringing motions and members of 93 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,600 Speaker 1: the opposition tabling amendments to that, and that's been the 94 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 1: process we've been going through. But this is something new. 95 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 1: This is something different. The government is called this something 96 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:52,600 Speaker 1: dangerous with an unpredictable precedent because it does certainly open 97 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,799 Speaker 1: up the floodgates for other activity like this in the future. 98 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:59,159 Speaker 1: It upends the balance between the democratic institutions. Is the 99 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 1: government's ache on this? Those who put this forward though, 100 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 1: and I have to point out this is a cross bench, 101 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 1: across party group of MPs who put this plan forward. 102 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 1: They see this as really trying to answer the question 103 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: as too okay, we know what Parliament doesn't want, but 104 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 1: what does Parliament really want? What can parliament get behind 105 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 1: important to note though, this doesn't mean that this is 106 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,599 Speaker 1: what will come to part. Parliament will express its wishes 107 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 1: this way, but the Executive does not have to listen 108 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:25,679 Speaker 1: to this. Theresa May and her team have been saying 109 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 1: we can't pre commit to implement a plan that we 110 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 1: don't know what that is. That would not be responsible. 111 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:33,840 Speaker 1: So Anna, I'm wondering whether they actually all of this 112 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: mess plays into the Prime minister strategy that she gets 113 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 1: the hardcore Brexiteers to start thinking that it's either her 114 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,600 Speaker 1: plan or they're not going to get anything they want. 115 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: That is exactly the subject of the most recent modcast. 116 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 1: If you've not heard of this, Jonathan and Tom, this 117 00:06:48,360 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: is the Jacob Reese Marko, I'm sure you have heard of, 118 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:51,919 Speaker 1: the leader of the e r G, the sort of 119 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 1: breakaway part of the Conservative Party, far on the right side, 120 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: the brexiteer side at the Conservative Party. He does a 121 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: podcast called modcast he releases this morning, and it makes 122 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: that point. But the choice, there's a continuum of choices, 123 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:06,599 Speaker 1: and May's deal, he says, he is better than no 124 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: deal at all. He said it before and last night 125 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 1: he said he would be tempted to hold his nose 126 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 1: and vote for the reason May's deal if this was 127 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 1: the best chance of getting any kind of Brexit. And 128 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 1: so what's interesting about indicative votes is that they could 129 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 1: paint a picture of the way forward, or they could 130 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: just be used to whip the E r G and 131 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 1: other holdouts into supporting Thereason May's deal. In the end, Okay, 132 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: I'm lost and thank you so much, greatly appreciate it, 133 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 1: and can't say enough about her work on the green 134 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 1: at Westminster. She has been absolutely extraordinary. What Jack far 135 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:51,679 Speaker 1: and I love to do is to fold like six 136 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 1: of the Zeitgey stories at the moment into one lovely story. 137 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 1: And John, we can do that with Jennifer Bailey, vice 138 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 1: president of Apple PA yesterday who got up and introduced 139 00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 1: the Goldman Sachs Apple Titanium credit card, and there in 140 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: front of thousands of Apple fans, you know, the Apple idiots, 141 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:16,680 Speaker 1: was the Titan card and across it. It's a Jeffrey 142 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:18,480 Speaker 1: Curry not let me get away with that. Did you 143 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: just call the Apple fans the Apple idiots? You know, 144 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 1: the fan boys, the fan boys, they're all into it. 145 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 1: And there was David Solomon there, and there's the titanium 146 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 1: Apple card and it says across a commodity guru Jeffrey Curry, 147 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 1: Jeff carries with us. But Jeff Curry can always say 148 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:37,840 Speaker 1: that you've got an Apple if X I do. But but, 149 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: Jeffrey Curry, titanium and credit. What is titanium used for? 150 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 1: I prefer the precious medals over these rare earth metals, 151 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 1: but platum but not titanium unfortunately. But it's but but 152 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: they're like they're different from gold. I get that. What 153 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:58,960 Speaker 1: did you do with palladium and platinum um? They go 154 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: into autocats and because of the VW problem um the 155 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 1: demand for diesel cars collapse and the platinum goes into those. 156 00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 1: And then at the platinum price went down and we 157 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 1: buy more gasoline cars in lieu of the diesel cars 158 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 1: and palladium. And so as of yesterday, are you're covering titanium? 159 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 1: Not yet? Not yet? So, Jeff the question used to 160 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,880 Speaker 1: be what's going on with China just OSCA commodity strategists. 161 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:27,440 Speaker 1: Now it's which commodity do I look at to understand 162 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:29,839 Speaker 1: what he's going on with China? Woke me through a 163 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 1: Jeff Well. In general, the policy in China has become 164 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 1: much more selective, Like if you look at their how 165 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 1: they stimulated housing this time around, they went in city 166 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:42,839 Speaker 1: by city, credit worthy by credit worthy, and so you 167 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 1: end up with these very idiosyncratic stories. Now, in terms 168 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:48,679 Speaker 1: of thinking about the current environment, the one thing we've 169 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:52,560 Speaker 1: learned is they won't step aside and let the economy collapse, 170 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 1: nor are they going to turbot charge it. So really 171 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 1: what it does it creates a relatively benign outlook, like 172 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:01,160 Speaker 1: our outlook for steel demand in China this year's flat 173 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 1: ere overyear. I think that's really the core outlook going forward. 174 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:08,439 Speaker 1: But that reluctance not to step aside has that also 175 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: made it more difficult over time to boost the economy 176 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 1: when they need to know when two thousand and fifteen 177 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 1: and sixteen they did it in the large scale, and 178 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:20,560 Speaker 1: they did it again back in was it twelve and thirteen? 179 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:22,880 Speaker 1: It looks different this time though, Jeff, They've been trying 180 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: to stimulate the economy, for one, and there are very 181 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:28,439 Speaker 1: little signs of it actually stimulated the economy. Well, I mean, 182 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 1: if you got rid of the tail risk, you know, 183 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:34,040 Speaker 1: you look at you know, the the underlying um economic 184 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:35,679 Speaker 1: growth is somewhere in that five and a half to 185 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 1: six percent growth range, and they've taken down their targets. 186 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:43,560 Speaker 1: Does dr copper work anymore? Really important question about you know, 187 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 1: what do you follow for China? I mean, the regression 188 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 1: from two thousand and ten is not pretty No, it's not. 189 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 1: But but if you look at um what copper was 190 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 1: primarily used to create that electrical grid system in China, 191 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:59,120 Speaker 1: and infrastructure projects are slower right now. As a result, 192 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 1: demand is slower for copper and other base metals right now. 193 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:07,439 Speaker 1: Do you have a good handle on various industrial demands? 194 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:10,559 Speaker 1: I mean, I mean we run into in oil all 195 00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 1: the time, supply, supply, supply. Nobody really wants to measure demand. 196 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:19,040 Speaker 1: Is it truly measurable? Well, you get an implied demand 197 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:20,559 Speaker 1: that I think it's pretty close to it, and it's 198 00:11:20,559 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 1: consistent with the underlying economic data. But I think the 199 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 1: key here is durable demand, whether if it's houses, autos, 200 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 1: in the developed markets or infrastructure in China is a 201 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 1: lot lower today than it was five ten years ago, 202 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:36,199 Speaker 1: and that's primary reason why copper and the rest of 203 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 1: the metals complex is lower. So Tom's brought up an 204 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 1: interesting point about DR copper. If DR copper along has 205 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:44,199 Speaker 1: a PhD, and I cannot believe what the inversion of 206 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 1: the yield curve is used to tell me, or is 207 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 1: telling me? Now, what is the signal that I get 208 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 1: from price? Where do I get signal from price anymore? Well, 209 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:55,559 Speaker 1: if you look at the prices across the complex, they're 210 00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 1: sitting pretty much on their equilibrium values. We got coppers 211 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 1: a little bit stronger UM, but more broadly UM. Most 212 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 1: of these prices are telling you it's kind of a 213 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 1: mid lean type story, consistent with the underlying fundamentals. And 214 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 1: one of my great charts I put this out years ago. 215 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,920 Speaker 1: It's the old c R y c RB indexes, ancient 216 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 1: stuff folks, back to the fifties, and I adjust for 217 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 1: inflation and the answer is cop blended commodity prices now, 218 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,680 Speaker 1: Jeff Curry, are back to where they were in on 219 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:27,600 Speaker 1: an inflation adjusted basis. We haven't broken that cycle, other 220 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 1: than the one off commodity boom. What's the house call 221 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:36,280 Speaker 1: at Goldman Sex, I'm breaking this deflationary cycle. Well, if 222 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: you take the non energy, which a CRB is primarily composed, 223 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 1: it's bacing. That's that lack of Chinese demand for capex commodities. 224 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:48,720 Speaker 1: The op x commodities like oil looks a lot better. 225 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:52,079 Speaker 1: So it offsets that chart and makes it slightly tilt 226 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 1: up as opposed to tilting down. What's your calling oil 227 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 1: right now? Have you revisited that seventies seventy five? The 228 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:00,360 Speaker 1: market is really tight today. You know, we got million 229 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 1: barrel per day deficit forward curves in backgradation, so it's 230 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 1: a rock solid story right now. However, you got a 231 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 1: relatively barry story going into because of the pipe capacity, 232 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 1: and as a result, we think this markets can remain back. 233 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 1: This is on w T I s Brent, I was 234 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:18,920 Speaker 1: gonna send us a big job from what we are now. 235 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 1: That's still eight dollars. That's a big move. Well, from 236 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 1: fifty to seventy five, I was thinking that that was 237 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 1: a little bit, but from sixty whatever. Jef, last time 238 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: you were with us, we talked about gold, and I 239 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:33,400 Speaker 1: think a fourteen hundred dollar price target on gold. Are 240 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 1: you still there is how we're still looking for? Definitely? Um, 241 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 1: you know most of the evidence coming in on central 242 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: bank buying is there. Um. The Chinese bought in both 243 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:45,200 Speaker 1: December as well as January ten tons Um, you have 244 00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 1: a dovish fed Um. You know the flying the white 245 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 1: mate right now is really what's going on with the 246 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 1: US dollar. But you take the the underlying fundamental picture 247 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:55,440 Speaker 1: and you get a stronger e M, which looks to 248 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:58,199 Speaker 1: be the case ex China. Um, that's the tail wind 249 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 1: that you need to push gold up to fourteen we 250 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 1: viewed as a grain higher as opposed to is the 251 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 1: house view still for a week a dollar from here? 252 00:14:04,520 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 1: And what undepends that? Jeff? Yeah, I mean it's you know, 253 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 1: the situation in Europe is probably about as bad as 254 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:12,559 Speaker 1: is it's going to get at this point right now. Um. 255 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 1: And if you look at the dollar against the e 256 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 1: M x China, it's it's it's much weaker than what 257 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 1: it was last year. Jeff created John Ferre and I 258 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 1: need to be in Vienna April eighteen or seventeen. In 259 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: April eighteen, do we need to be there for the 260 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: OPEC meetings? I mean, do we need to be there 261 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: for all the excitement of OPEC now. I think I 262 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 1: think the big question with OPEC right now is the 263 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: exit strategy and when they're gonna start talking about it, 264 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 1: our rexit strategy. From Vienna Aprilt Tomas just trying to 265 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 1: arrange a vacation. I don't think it's going to be 266 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 1: that exciting this April. This is this last time. Jeff 267 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 1: is great to catch up with you. Now you've got 268 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: to run to TV. So thank you very much, Thank you. 269 00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:59,160 Speaker 1: Come back when you can say, Vienna looks lovely in April, 270 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: just for a night, just for a night. Jeff went 271 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 1: once in I was six, just killing us. So when Jeff, 272 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: when Jeff goes to Vienna after that getting started, just 273 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: emailed in and said, you'll be lucky. You'll see Vienna Virginia. 274 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 1: Christina Huper here with Investco, their chief global market strategist, 275 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 1: to help us reset this morning. Let's look back first, 276 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 1: how did you reset on December of last year. Well, 277 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: we recognized at that point that the FED may actually 278 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 1: be feeling more flexible and maybe beginning to pivot um. 279 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:57,240 Speaker 1: But having said that, it really wasn't confirmed for a while, 280 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 1: and so I don't think that man any adjusted portfolios 281 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 1: because of that slight indicate. But on the south side, 282 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 1: they're report December rather December, they're doing it for three 283 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 1: weeks of December. You gotta rip that up, throat and 284 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 1: waste basket. What's your new twenty page report when you 285 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 1: speak to invest Goo shareholders. Well, clearly it's a much 286 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 1: more accommodative environment for risk assets because of the FED pivot. 287 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 1: But the caveat is if economic data holds up, because 288 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 1: that's really the concern because this pivot was so abrupt, 289 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 1: was so dramatic. What it does is raise very significant 290 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 1: concerns about the state of the global economy. So we're 291 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,920 Speaker 1: gonna need to follow the data closely before we really 292 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 1: have a solid picture of what is to come this year. Um, 293 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: my expectation is that we will see the global economic 294 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 1: data hold up, that China stimulus, for example, will power 295 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 1: the Chinese economy and enable them to hit that six 296 00:16:57,880 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: to hit six and a half percent target? Is that 297 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 1: very easily? That is my call. Your call is a 298 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 1: six percent plus China GDP. That is correct. That is 299 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:08,280 Speaker 1: lonely Joe, Well, that's China is called as well and 300 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: typically what China's call is is what growth will be 301 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 1: as lonely as you'd expect. I think that the thing 302 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:18,119 Speaker 1: that I find really hard to reconcile right now is 303 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 1: why the rates market would begin kind again pricing get 304 00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 1: a rate cut at the same time that risky parts 305 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: of credit continue to rally. A question I asked this morning, 306 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 1: is an environment where the FED needs to cut is 307 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:32,919 Speaker 1: not typically an environment where risk performs well. So I 308 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:36,159 Speaker 1: think something's got to give. Either the rate cut doesn't happen, 309 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 1: or the credit market needs to adjust and adjust quickly. 310 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 1: Which one is it? Christina? From what you're saying, you 311 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 1: just don't think the right cut happens. I don't expect 312 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 1: a rate cut to happen. I know that the probability 313 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 1: is going up if we look at FED funds futures, 314 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 1: but we have seen a decoupling between expectations and FED policy, 315 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: so I wouldn't be surprised if that continues. I just 316 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: believe that the economic data will hold up fairly well. 317 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,200 Speaker 1: I'm not telling you we're going to see very strong 318 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 1: global growth, but it's not going to be as bad 319 00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 1: as many expect. As the treasury market the coupled from 320 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 1: the domestic growth story. Uh, it has to a certain extent. 321 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: But I think that that is to be expected given 322 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: just the abrupt change that the FED made that set 323 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 1: off all kinds of alarm bells and has made many 324 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: investors wonder what's going on. So we have to wait 325 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:31,399 Speaker 1: for the data to appear to really confirm views. So 326 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:33,399 Speaker 1: when does that actually come? Because there was an immense 327 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:35,919 Speaker 1: amount of faith that China would be able to stabilize 328 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 1: the situation, that we would see it stabilized as the 329 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:40,680 Speaker 1: year progresses. Are you seeing any of that in the 330 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:45,000 Speaker 1: data at the moment, not particularly, although it's not terrible. 331 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:47,880 Speaker 1: I think what we're likely to see is improvement as 332 00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:50,360 Speaker 1: we move through the spring into the summer. What gives 333 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 1: you the confidence because I have a lot of confidence 334 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:56,480 Speaker 1: that the Chinese government, when they want something to happen, 335 00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:59,360 Speaker 1: they make it happen. Um. They have a lot of 336 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:03,960 Speaker 1: stimulus that they're throwing at this fiscal, monetary administrative and 337 00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 1: I believe it will ultimately result in grow. I want 338 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 1: to point out that within what we saw the last 339 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 1: number of days, John, that we heard the same thing 340 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:15,560 Speaker 1: in a different way from Dr Shepherdson Pantheon. Absolutely that 341 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:19,399 Speaker 1: within the I mean, I'm sorry, I'm looking at the 342 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg screen and it's not giving me Christina Hooper's story 343 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:28,080 Speaker 1: right now, but she's looking out to a restorative process. 344 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,720 Speaker 1: I'm catching up with Wackin Fouls of PIMCO a little 345 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 1: bit later, and their cyclical outlook came out a couple 346 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:38,240 Speaker 1: of days ago, flatlining at the new neutral. And ultimately 347 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:40,200 Speaker 1: their take is what I think many people's take is 348 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 1: now that the swing factor in the global economy is 349 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:44,760 Speaker 1: China and what happens with China later this year. They 350 00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 1: also share that faith that we will have a little 351 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 1: bit of stability there, we will have a bottoming out 352 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: process that begins as the year progresses. Christina, some people 353 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,399 Speaker 1: don't buy into that. How do you convince them when 354 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 1: you speak to clients. Well, one argument is to just 355 00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,639 Speaker 1: point to the US China trade war. It behooves China 356 00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:05,879 Speaker 1: to stimulate its economy so that it can last through 357 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 1: the U S China trade wars until the US capitulates. 358 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:13,199 Speaker 1: That is an incredibly powerful incentive to throw stimulus at 359 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,199 Speaker 1: the economy right now. So if I believe that, the 360 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 1: next question is how to express that in financial markets? 361 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 1: If I believe that China is going to stabilize, then 362 00:20:21,520 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 1: I'm looking at the markets right now, I'm thinking, well, actually, 363 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 1: European equities have already having a decent year. Chinese equities 364 00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 1: are already having a different decent year. Likewise, with credit 365 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 1: markets have fixed income in Asia, in Europe? Where do 366 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:35,040 Speaker 1: I get value? Where should I push that view through 367 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 1: that China is going to stabilize and things will be okay? 368 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: Is it on the short side and rates? Is it 369 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 1: long in equity somewhere? What should I be doing? I 370 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:47,440 Speaker 1: see opportunities and equities, and we have a significant amount 371 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,200 Speaker 1: of altility, so there's an opportunity to buy on the dips, 372 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 1: both in the US and emerging markets equities. Although I 373 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 1: focus on Asia, E m interesting. Christina Hooper grets to 374 00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:00,119 Speaker 1: catch up with you, Investco Chief Global Markets, trying just 375 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,920 Speaker 1: on a really interesting morning til an interesting wickip price 376 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:06,120 Speaker 1: action to well, the interesting Waka price action. But what's 377 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,359 Speaker 1: interesting about it is where we are and where the 378 00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,439 Speaker 1: mood is. I mean, right now, John, if we created 379 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:15,919 Speaker 1: a dot plot today and with the market perception of it, 380 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 1: it would be an original dot plot. It would would 381 00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:22,920 Speaker 1: Let's be clear about that. I mean the market could 382 00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 1: could have its ound dot right now on the FMC 383 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:28,879 Speaker 1: del plant, you know what I mean. The Christina, they 384 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:30,680 Speaker 1: don't move. I know you've got to get up and leave, 385 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,159 Speaker 1: but but Christina, I think this is critical. And then 386 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:35,399 Speaker 1: I went back and looked at two years of dots, 387 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 1: which you could do on the Bloomberg, and the slopes 388 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 1: have all changed. I mean, the view out for the 389 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 1: fancy people at the FED is radically different than it 390 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,920 Speaker 1: was two years ago, right, absolutely, But I think that 391 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 1: has a lot to do with the fact that this 392 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 1: is a policy prescription essentially created in a vacuum by 393 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,919 Speaker 1: each individual member of the f o MC, So it 394 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 1: doesn't reflect group think and the kind of consensus that 395 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 1: goes along with Actually, but our listeners don't have a 396 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:09,280 Speaker 1: luxury of group think in consensus. They're just scared stuff 397 00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 1: and they missed the rebound January February and Cell, what 398 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 1: are you doing to allocate right now for those that 399 00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 1: didn't enjoy up eleven. Well, we're encouraging them to take 400 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 1: a long term view, which means that right now central 401 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 1: bank policy is relatively accommodative. Although I would say that 402 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,320 Speaker 1: one area I do worry about and We've already seen 403 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:34,360 Speaker 1: a run up there as European equities just because one 404 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 1: thing that not many people is talking are talking about 405 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: is that Marrow Droggy leaves this position at the end 406 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,639 Speaker 1: of October. So he's essentially a lame duck, and so 407 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,360 Speaker 1: no matter what kind of stimulus we see coming out 408 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 1: of the e c B, we may not see markets 409 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:56,160 Speaker 1: to Christina Uper, thank you so much with Investco. Thanks 410 00:22:56,200 --> 00:23:00,520 Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen 411 00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:06,040 Speaker 1: to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform 412 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:10,440 Speaker 1: you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. 413 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:14,000 Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio