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Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites

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Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm Chad Nowman,

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Speaker 1: chief Content officer of the Action Network. Big NFL Show Today.

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Speaker 1: You say, how can it be a Big NFL show

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Speaker 1: where three weeks past the Super Bowl but Combine is

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Speaker 1: coming up Aaron Rodgers speculation has us all on high alert.

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Speaker 1: I am going to be joined by the one that

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Speaker 1: got Away. In addition to Simon Hunter Professional Better, my bff,

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Speaker 1: my companion, Mike and Padre still on his world tour

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Speaker 1: of God Knows where, Matthew Freedman, chief Strategists at f

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Speaker 1: t N, former Action Network analyst Draft Genius, the man

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Speaker 1: who originated the draft coverage for the Action Network, is

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Speaker 1: joining us on the podcast today. Simon, how excited are

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Speaker 1: we do to see Freedman? I'm so excited, Chad. And

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Speaker 1: I didn't realize that said you were to hear a

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Speaker 1: story about a fan of yours in Cuba. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what you're talking about. I would never twist your

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Speaker 1: arm to tell people in public a story about when

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Speaker 1: someone recognized me from another country. No, you would not.

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Speaker 1: Someone named Chad would not do something like that way.

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Speaker 1: But yes, Chad, the rumors are true. We have fans

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Speaker 1: in the Middle East, we have fans all over the world.

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Speaker 1: We even have a fan in Cuba, which people wouldn't

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Speaker 1: believe it. They use satellites to get internet and like

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Speaker 1: get music, podcasts, everything you can think of from America.

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Speaker 1: Hearing a Cuban person talking about liking Chad and how

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Speaker 1: they went out of their way through smuggle a book

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Speaker 1: from America that Chad wrote so they could read some

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Speaker 1: of your writing, Chad was truly alarming. Chad Millman wrote

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Speaker 1: a book which fun fact, people doesn't know Cuba has

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Speaker 1: the most literate country in the entire world. Like it

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Speaker 1: was shocking hearing and Cuban talking about his love for Chad,

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Speaker 1: his writing and his gab, his gambling knowledge. There's a

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Speaker 1: lot to take in. Chad doesn't sound shocking to me

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Speaker 1: at all. Simon, I'm surprised you would tell that story

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Speaker 1: that comes out of nowhere. To me, I'm so glad

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Speaker 1: you would spontaneously share that. We're definitely not going to

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Speaker 1: clip this and put it on YouTube. There's no way

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Speaker 1: we would do something that shameless, and I probably won't

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Speaker 1: text it to everyone in my family. I feel like

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Speaker 1: Freedman should be disappointed that he decided to ditch the

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Speaker 1: Action Network, where he could have been working with someone

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Speaker 1: who's known worldwide. I don't know how many people at

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Speaker 1: f t N Freedman are known have fans in Cuba.

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Speaker 1: First of all, I just want to say I previously

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Speaker 1: thought that all Millman books should be banned. Uh Now

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Speaker 1: I no longer think that. You've given that they are

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Speaker 1: spreading the good news in Cuba chat. Thank you for

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Speaker 1: the wonderful introduction, Although I want to say I'm not

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Speaker 1: just the chief strategy officer a f IN. By the way,

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Speaker 1: great title sounds impressive, but no one knows what it means,

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Speaker 1: so they don't expect anything from me. But not just

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Speaker 1: the chief strategist at ft IN, I'm also the former

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Speaker 1: one time fill in host of the favorite podcast. While

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Speaker 1: you were off last summer gallivanting around the country, Simon,

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell and I were holding down the Fort and

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Speaker 1: it was probably the greatest episode the show has ever had.

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Speaker 1: Simon won't say that because I imagine he still has

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Speaker 1: a performance review coming up, but he knows he knows

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Speaker 1: it's true. Also, Simon, great job on the Sunday Morning

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Speaker 1: Live Show this year, a real upgrade on the Bozo

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Speaker 1: Who's that Chair Flash year. I mean, the show is

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Speaker 1: obviously great, but one thing the show is missing, missing

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Speaker 1: the nemesis, the donkey everyman who can sometimes make sense

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Speaker 1: out of stupidity. You need to get yourself a freedman

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Speaker 1: another someone that you love to hate. And speaking of

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Speaker 1: which you know, I know I'm going on the tangent now.

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Speaker 1: But anyway, I had a girlfriend early in college from

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Speaker 1: my hometown. I gave her a ring, not like a

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Speaker 1: ring ring, but like we've been dating a while, here's

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Speaker 1: a ring kind of ring. Anyway, we eventually broke up

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Speaker 1: after we graduated. I was with someone else, she was

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Speaker 1: with someone else, but we were both back in our

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Speaker 1: hometown for the summer. So one evening we met up

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Speaker 1: just to catch up, and she wore the ring. It

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Speaker 1: was a nice gesture, you know, for old time's sake.

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Speaker 1: And so that's what's happening here, Chad, for you, not

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Speaker 1: for Simon, not for Matt Mitchell, but for you, Chad,

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Speaker 1: you alone. I am wearing the Action Network hoodie because

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Speaker 1: you know, we did have some good times together, and

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Speaker 1: you know, I just want to say thanks for having

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Speaker 1: me on the show. It's good to be back. You

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Speaker 1: are a hundred percent of class. Act Fredman, I rue

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Speaker 1: the day you decided to ditch us. Speaking of ditching,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of speculation about what Aaron Rodgers is

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Speaker 1: gonna do. So on Tuesday, midday before he made his

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Speaker 1: appearance with Pat McAfee, there was an announcement that the

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Speaker 1: Packers were having a conference press conference on Wednesday with

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Speaker 1: their GM. He put out a post about on Instagram

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Speaker 1: about how gratefully was Um for this past season with

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Speaker 1: the Packers. Um. He goes on McAfee and immediately punctures

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Speaker 1: a hole in any speculation says, look, I'm not making

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Speaker 1: an announced it right now. I'm still contemplating my decision.

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Speaker 1: I was on a Pancha Karma cleans on which he

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Speaker 1: does every offseason, for twelve days, and when he was done,

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Speaker 1: it filled him with gratitude. That's why he put out

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Speaker 1: the post. That's all it was about. If we're betting

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Speaker 1: on this, if we are betting people, which we are,

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Speaker 1: Simon already know your future is Ravens Jags Steelers Falcons,

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Speaker 1: and we're trying to make a bet on where we

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Speaker 1: think Aaron Rodgers will be next year. Do you think

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Speaker 1: he'll be with the Packers? If not, where do you

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Speaker 1: think he goes? And is there value of making that bet?

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Speaker 1: I think he will likely be with the Packers, But

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Speaker 1: I will say if you're of the mind that he

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Speaker 1: won't be with the Packers, I think the bet is

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Speaker 1: actually on the Bears. Chad, this is blatant. I'm trying

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Speaker 1: to appeal to your homeraism. In fact, I would say

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Speaker 1: you could take it a step further. Right now, you

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Speaker 1: can find a hundred and fifty to one odds for

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Speaker 1: one second year quarterback who happens to play for the

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Speaker 1: Bears to be the league envy p and I actually

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Speaker 1: kind of don't hate that bet on its own anyway.

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Speaker 1: But if you think Aaron Rodgers is leaving the gray

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Speaker 1: A Packers, then that bet all of a sudden becomes

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Speaker 1: a little more intriguing. So if I had to think

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Speaker 1: about Aaron Rodgers and what that might mean if he leaves,

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Speaker 1: I'm actually looking at Justin Fields at a hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty one to be the NFL MVP. Simon. That's an

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Speaker 1: interesting take. That's what we love, Matt. He's thinking outside

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Speaker 1: the box here. That's that's a good way to look

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Speaker 1: at this position where you're if you're looking to get

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Speaker 1: value off there in Rodgers move, he is gonna move.

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Speaker 1: Those are the kind of bet you make. I just

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Speaker 1: don't believe it either. I'm I'm I'm thinking Rodgers needs

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Speaker 1: to go eat mushrooms in Hawaii and walk around but

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Speaker 1: naked for a couple of weeks and then he'll make

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Speaker 1: a decision like he always does. So we know he's

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Speaker 1: a weird guy. He's gonna do some weird stuff. So

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Speaker 1: it's impossible to say. But last year what we did

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Speaker 1: chat is we just faded the noise. And what we

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Speaker 1: do is we wait. We wait for Rogers to become

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Speaker 1: the narcissist he is. He'll talk more, He'll throw out

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Speaker 1: more speculation. The Green Bay odds will keep shifting up.

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Speaker 1: More people on ESPN and the Action Network will talk

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Speaker 1: about Aaron Rodgers going to Denver, Aaron Rodgers going to Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 1: Green Bay's odds will keep going up. And last year

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Speaker 1: we got green Bay one to make the super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: Obviously that was a terrible bet. They lost in the

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Speaker 1: second round at home. But that's a value bet. They

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Speaker 1: dropped all the way down to six to one, five

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Speaker 1: to one in some books for Super Bowl at that point.

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Speaker 1: So when you're trying to find value a long term,

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Speaker 1: long term bet, usually the waiting games to go. So

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Speaker 1: if you do believe the hype, you do think he's

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Speaker 1: gonna leave, don't speculate what team he's gonna go to.

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Speaker 1: Try to take Matt Freeman's approach here and just take

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Speaker 1: you know, the Bears to win the division because we

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Speaker 1: obviously don't believe in Minnesota. We we don't believe in Detroit.

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Speaker 1: That's a good bet on a second year quarterback and

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Speaker 1: fields with the with this Bears team. So I like

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Speaker 1: respecting with that. I love both of those things. That's great.

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Speaker 1: All right, Let's get to the Combine because that is

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Speaker 1: coming up more and more. You're able to bet on

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Speaker 1: the Combine more and more markets. For those who don't know,

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Speaker 1: the Combine has been going on four years. I covered

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Speaker 1: the Combine when I got out of college and worked

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Speaker 1: at Sports Illustrated in the mid nineties. And Peter King,

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Speaker 1: who is probably one of the pre eminent NFL writers

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Speaker 1: in the history of covering the NFL. He couldn't go

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Speaker 1: one year, and he whispered to me, he said to me,

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Speaker 1: before I was going, he called me on a telephone

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Speaker 1: on landline because that's all we had, and he's like, Chad,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna love the Combine. You're gonna have GMS just

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Speaker 1: whispering sweet nothings in your ear all week long. And

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Speaker 1: I'm like, this is gonna be amazing, and it actually

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Speaker 1: is great to cover. You go. You basically hang out

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Speaker 1: at Saint Almost the Steakhouse, which is a block away

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Speaker 1: from where they hold the Combine. The coaches, the gens,

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Speaker 1: the writers, the analysts, everyone sent to the bar for

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Speaker 1: eight straight nights or seven straight nights whatever. It is,

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Speaker 1: getting drunk, trading gossip and sharing news about what's happening

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Speaker 1: at the Combine and elsewhere. That's everything you'll see from

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Speaker 1: on every single media outlet. It is coming from somebody

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Speaker 1: at Saint Almost Seakhouse. I'm just telling you right now,

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Speaker 1: all that talking just to drop Peter King's name. Alright, Chad,

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Speaker 1: let's keep it going. Why why are you being me?

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Speaker 1: Are you mad? Because I'm known in Cuba. It's just anorable.

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Speaker 1: It's just a long story to just drop Peter King's name.

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Speaker 1: We love it. We love Peter King. We love Chad

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Speaker 1: dropping names. Oh my god. So here we go. All

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Speaker 1: these players are flying to Indie. Three players are flying Indie.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna be tested physically, mentally, They're going to be interviewed.

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Speaker 1: Everybody is going to get poked and product. You've all

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Speaker 1: seen that famous picture of Tom Brady sort of in

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Speaker 1: his combine photo. This is where decisions are made, Fortunes

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Speaker 1: are made, fortunes are lost. Players move up and down

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Speaker 1: the draft board based on combine performance. So, Freeman, I'll

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Speaker 1: start with you what type of player has the most

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Speaker 1: to gain from the combine right now? So I think

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Speaker 1: there are two types of players. The first is maybe

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Speaker 1: like the smaller school type of prospect, the guy who's

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Speaker 1: on the fringe of NFL value. And so I would

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Speaker 1: put that as the guy who, you know, does he

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Speaker 1: go on Day two with a good combine or does

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Speaker 1: he fail at the combine and go Day three or

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Speaker 1: go undrafted. And then the second kind of guy is

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Speaker 1: the one that already like has clear NFL value. The

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Speaker 1: question is does he catapult himself to being a top

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Speaker 1: player at his position? His position? So think of Cavon Thibodeau, right,

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Speaker 1: who just you know, four to six weeks ago, look

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Speaker 1: like he might be the number one player in the draft.

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Speaker 1: His draft stock is declined, but we know the guy

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Speaker 1: is a freak athlete. We know that from his days

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Speaker 1: as a high school student. He was potentially one of

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Speaker 1: the if not the top prospect in his recruitment class,

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Speaker 1: a five star recruit, the top defensive lineman in his class.

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Speaker 1: We know he could tear up the combine. If he

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Speaker 1: does it, he shoots right back up to having potentially

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Speaker 1: number one draft stock. So a guy like that, he

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Speaker 1: has a lot to gain from the combine. And then

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Speaker 1: smaller school guys, if they have a good combine, they

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Speaker 1: have the college production, you know, they've got the size,

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Speaker 1: if they have athleticism, the draft capital wolf follow who

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Speaker 1: has the most to lose? I mean they, I would say,

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Speaker 1: guys who have already checked all of the boxes or

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Speaker 1: most of the boxes, and they just need to avoid

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Speaker 1: a catastrophic combined. And so there are some guys who

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Speaker 1: who come to mind, I would say, this is a

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Speaker 1: decent wide receiver class in comparison to some of the

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Speaker 1: other positions. It's a decent wide receiver class, so we

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Speaker 1: could see five to six guys go in the top

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Speaker 1: we'll say fourty picks at the wide receiver position. So

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Speaker 1: there are a number of guys who just need not

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Speaker 1: to destroy themselves at the combine. I'm thinking of someone

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Speaker 1: like Brake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olava. All of these

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Speaker 1: guys are kind of consensus e first round wide receivers.

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Speaker 1: As long as they don't do anything terrible at the combine,

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Speaker 1: they should all go in the first round. So guys

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Speaker 1: who are in you know, the wheelhouse of locked in

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Speaker 1: top forty, top fifty NFL value, those are the guys

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Speaker 1: who have a lot to lose this draft class. I stay.

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Speaker 1: I think we talked last year a lot about it.

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Speaker 1: I I've mainly focused towards the quarterback because quarterback that

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Speaker 1: lets me help prepare for the upcoming season knowing these

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks note their strength or weaknesses are I kind of

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Speaker 1: had millions now run through the draft and other prospects,

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Speaker 1: and when I bet the draft, I bet off rumor

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Speaker 1: and try to find the value in what the pros

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Speaker 1: are talking about and where I can like find where

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Speaker 1: the public here is one thing, but the pros. Note,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be a different thing. So this draft class,

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Speaker 1: just on paper, people are gonna talk about it. It's

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Speaker 1: it's not what last year was. Like. Last year was

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Speaker 1: we could argue one of the best draft classes we

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Speaker 1: bell oversee the three receivers taking the top ten. We're

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Speaker 1: all incredible, Like, none of them were bad. Pits was

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Speaker 1: great at tight end, both offensive linemen were great. It

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Speaker 1: was just a very special draft last year. Where this

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Speaker 1: draft is more of a class of just solid players.

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Speaker 1: Like there, as an Eagles fan, we have three first

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Speaker 1: round picks. That's a big deal in this draft. Like

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Speaker 1: if you need a d linement, if you need an

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Speaker 1: offensive lineman, if you need linebacker help this this draft

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Speaker 1: class is littered with studs. So I definitely want to

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Speaker 1: hear a Matt stake on this quarterback class. You know,

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Speaker 1: there's a there's a couple of different athletes that could

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Speaker 1: push their way into being the first quarterback taken. But

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Speaker 1: like Chad talked earlier in the year, it's it's hard

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Speaker 1: to see a quarterback on the top ten, but I

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Speaker 1: can see it happening, just because teams are gonna be desperate.

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Speaker 1: We always know who teams are gonna take a quarterback.

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Speaker 1: So I would love to hear what you think, Matt, like,

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Speaker 1: who do you think will be the first quarterback to go?

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Speaker 1: And do you think there would be one of the

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Speaker 1: top ten? Hold on, I want Freemen to answer this.

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Speaker 1: But Chad didn't say it'll be tough for a quarterback

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Speaker 1: to be in the top ten. Chad said there will

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Speaker 1: not be a quarterback taken in the top ten, and

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Speaker 1: you and Mitchell laughed uproarially. So Freedman, please weigh in.

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Speaker 1: It's a great take, Chad. The two teams that might

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Speaker 1: give problems the Panthers and the Broncos, But I think

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Speaker 1: both of those teams have a decent chance of going

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Speaker 1: after other quarterbacks. So let's say Aaron Rodgers. I mean,

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Speaker 1: there's a natural landing spot with the Broncos and the Panthers.

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Speaker 1: I could see them looking to uh to make a

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Speaker 1: splash in the trade market. You know, you could see

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Speaker 1: them going with Jimmy Garoppolo. You can see them going

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Speaker 1: with Deshaun Watson. And I mean, you would rather have

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Speaker 1: any of those quarterbacks over one of the rookies in

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Speaker 1: this class, because, as Simon said, this is a nasty class.

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Speaker 1: Balance of probability, we probably get one quarterback in the

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Speaker 1: top ten, but I think it happens at pick number nine.

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Speaker 1: But I don't have any confidence in that. I would

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Speaker 1: just say I think it's probably likely. But this is

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Speaker 1: a disgusting quarterback class. Any of the quarterbacks who go

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Speaker 1: in round one this year one didn't have gone in

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Speaker 1: round one last year. I think if you're looking at

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Speaker 1: the betting market, we might talk about that a little

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Speaker 1: bit later. But Malik Willis is interesting as the guy

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Speaker 1: who could be the number one quarterback. I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: he's starting to get some heat. He had a good

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Speaker 1: Senior Bowl. He's the guy would look at right now

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Speaker 1: to be the number one quarterback drafted. But Kenny Pickett

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Speaker 1: is also a guy who's been universally mocked in round one.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to be interested at the combine. The hand

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Speaker 1: measurement thing is hilarious and ridiculous. So you know, nine

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Speaker 1: inches is sort of like the threshold, like are you

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Speaker 1: a legitimate NFL quarterback? Nine inches is a threshold. Kenny

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Speaker 1: Pickett would not let his hand be measured at the

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Speaker 1: Senior Bowl because he is reportedly double jointed, so his

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Speaker 1: thumb sticks out at a weird angle. Uh okay, whatever.

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Speaker 1: That's a sign of where we are in the off

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Speaker 1: season that we're talking about a dude's thumb. Anyway, he's

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Speaker 1: apparently doing thumb exercises to try to stretch out his hand.

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Speaker 1: This is ridiculous. I think he has small hands and

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Speaker 1: is using the double jointed stuff as an excuse. Like

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Speaker 1: I think it's real. He does have double joint enhanced,

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Speaker 1: but it's an excuse. So I will be curious to

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Speaker 1: see the hand measurement for Kinney Pickett. But that's the

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Speaker 1: most notable thing about these quarterbacks at the combine out

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Speaker 1: of what we see for the most part doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: This is a class that is really boring. I cannot

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Speaker 1: believe we're having a conversation about a quarterback who would

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Speaker 1: be a third or fourth round pick, but because of

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Speaker 1: the the shallow nature of this particular draft and the

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks in it, he can be a first round pick,

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Speaker 1: and we got to talk about him being double jointed.

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Speaker 1: I got validation from Freedom and that there will not

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Speaker 1: be a top ten quarter quarterback taken in the top ten. Simon,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned the rumors. Do you feel that the rumors

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Speaker 1: that come out of the combine are reliable and do

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Speaker 1: they drive any sort of betting actionable betting for you guys.

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Speaker 1: So I think there are two types of rumors that

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Speaker 1: come out of the combine. One has to do with

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Speaker 1: the prospects, that's obvious. The other type of rumors are

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Speaker 1: like free agent type of rumors, like, you know, we

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Speaker 1: think that this guy is going to be released by

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Speaker 1: his team or something like that. Those rumors seem to

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Speaker 1: have more validity because it's like, why else would would

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Speaker 1: teams to be talking about that are like, this guy's

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Speaker 1: on the trade market stuff like that. Those rumors are interesting,

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Speaker 1: and we can see them come to fruition pretty quickly

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Speaker 1: with free agency coming up just a little bit after

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Speaker 1: the combine. The rumors that have to do with the prospects,

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Speaker 1: a lot of those are fluffy type of rumors, you know,

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Speaker 1: to where it's like, oh, NFL teams evaluators are high

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Speaker 1: on this guy. He seems really likely to be a

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Speaker 1: first round pick. You add up all of the rumors

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Speaker 1: and it's like, look, everyone's saying that fifty guys are

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Speaker 1: going to go in the first round, Like mathematically that

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Speaker 1: is not possible. But the rumors that are negative on guys.

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Speaker 1: Those are the rumors that really catch your eye, because

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's fluff season. Everyone's in love with different prospects.

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Speaker 1: If people are out there talking about how a guy

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Speaker 1: isn't really impressing the evaluators, that stuff means something. So

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Speaker 1: that is really where I start to pay attention on

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Speaker 1: prospect rumors. Yeah, I'm right there with them. It's hard, though, Like,

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Speaker 1: especially the more I've learned about media, it feels like

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Speaker 1: unless I know. But the one thing I have learned

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Speaker 1: is there are certain guys are just straight puppets. You

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Speaker 1: kind of when you kind of need to make a

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Speaker 1: list of who's legit and who's reporting stuff that you're like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: this is really good infot and there's other people that

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Speaker 1: they're just reporting back what other general managers are telling them,

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Speaker 1: which is to get people off their scent or whatever.

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Speaker 1: And we've seen people in the media they drive markets.

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Speaker 1: Like we talked all last year. I mean it literally,

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Speaker 1: I like not to brag, but it felt like we're

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Speaker 1: the only show that said Mac Jones was not gonna

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Speaker 1: be the third pick. And it was just one of

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Speaker 1: those where I mean we took a lot of heatport

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Speaker 1: because people are just like well Pro Football Focus or

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Speaker 1: ESPN or all these different shows we're talking about that

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Speaker 1: Mac was a lock to be the third pick of

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Speaker 1: role and that it was Shana Hand's guy, and John

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Speaker 1: Lynch was obsessed with him and he had traveled out

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Speaker 1: to go see him, and he had visit him in

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Speaker 1: Bam and all this other stuff that I mean, for

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Speaker 1: the fact, for not to just simply not be true.

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Speaker 1: It's like these people have to fill two months of conversation.

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Speaker 1: That's their job. Their job is not to be right,

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Speaker 1: Their job is just to get people to will listen

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Speaker 1: and watch the stuff they're saying. So my advice and

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Speaker 1: would be two people is a lot of it is true,

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Speaker 1: but it's so much of it just bs where it's

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Speaker 1: the general managers trying to mess around with other teams

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Speaker 1: either trying to get team to trade up, trade down,

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Speaker 1: different players to follow them. So definitely, definitely be careful

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Speaker 1: what sources you use. It is a fluff season. It

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Speaker 1: is definitely fluff season. What I will say, I'm like, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I am blocked now by Adam Schefter, which is hilarious

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Speaker 1: to me. But Schefter, I mean he outright said last

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Speaker 1: year he outright said it will be Mac Jones when

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Speaker 1: someone asked him about the number three pick. He backtracked

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Speaker 1: a little bit after that. But you know, Schefter hasn't

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Speaker 1: had a great year. I said that on Twitter and

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Speaker 1: he blocked me. So now I'm just gonna say, if

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Speaker 1: Adam Schefter says anything, Adam, please stop blocking me. Uh

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Speaker 1: you are great at your job. If Schefter reports it,

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Speaker 1: it must be true. Here's the thing, Simon, You're wrong

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Speaker 1: in that people are trying to just fill the airwaves. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they're trying to fill the airwaves, but they also want

413
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Speaker 1: to be right. You don't want to give bad information.

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Speaker 1: Don't listen. Don't be that x NFL player who goes

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Speaker 1: into the broadcast booth and then whines about the media

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Speaker 1: as if you're not a part of the media. You're

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Speaker 1: a part of the media, buddy. You have a massively

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Speaker 1: popular podcast. Your face is part of the logo. You

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Speaker 1: are in the media. You want to be right as

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Speaker 1: much as the next guy. Yeah, but my job is easy.

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Speaker 1: I have a job where I need to be right

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Speaker 1: for a half hour segment or an hour or show,

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Speaker 1: whatever we're doing. And I know what I'm talking about.

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Speaker 1: These other people on TV they don't know, Like, no,

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Speaker 1: not everyone has sources. It's so hard to get good,

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Speaker 1: reliable sources in life. Like that's the thing I joke

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Speaker 1: all the time. There are not thousands of professional sports

428
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,440
Speaker 1: bettors on Twitter chat Like it's the same thing I media.

429
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,359
Speaker 1: There aren't hundreds of people with good intel. Here's people

430
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,679
Speaker 1: that do shows five days a week that just need

431
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:54,880
Speaker 1: to fill the airwaves. Yeah, they might be right every

432
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,160
Speaker 1: now and then they're gonna talk up those rights. They're

433
00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 1: not gonna talk about their losses, which just gonna show

434
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:02,120
Speaker 1: right into the carpet. Like do you ever hear Chris

435
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:05,199
Speaker 1: Simms go backtrack about how loud wrong he was or

436
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 1: Adam Schefter, how loud wrong they were about mac Jones. No,

437
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:09,760
Speaker 1: they moved on to the second day of the draft

438
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:12,239
Speaker 1: and kept it moving. So people in the media they

439
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 1: ship all the time. But I think more often than not,

440
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 1: it's gonna be good info. Like again, we just talked

441
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,119
Speaker 1: about Schefter had a rough year, that's because he was

442
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:21,919
Speaker 1: so good at his job all these other years, and

443
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 1: like that's what I'm trying to give the people. It's like, yeah,

444
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 1: I think a lot of it it's fluff, like Matt

445
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 1: was saying, but there are is a lot of good information.

446
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,200
Speaker 1: That's your job. You have to kind of figure out

447
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,560
Speaker 1: who to trust and who not to trust. All Right,

448
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 1: that's very that's a good point. I like the way

449
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:37,959
Speaker 1: you're framing it excellent. As a member of the media,

450
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,960
Speaker 1: a longstanding Capital j journalist, I feel like people do

451
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:43,440
Speaker 1: their best and sometimes you get it right, sometimes you

452
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 1: get it wrong. Not a hater, don't hate participate, But

453
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,959
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454
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Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. Friedman, You're kind of a

483
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 1: draft freak, are you, already thinking about players you're excited

484
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,439
Speaker 1: to see at the combine, excited to get reports on

485
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 1: who are they? Yeah, so you know running backs. You know,

486
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 1: I'm a I'm a fantasy guy, so I always like

487
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: to think about the running backs. There were three running

488
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 1: backs in this class that I think have a decent

489
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 1: chance of being you know, you're you're sort of typical

490
00:24:55,359 --> 00:25:00,679
Speaker 1: three down leadback grinder. Those guys Bruce Hall, I Jais, Biller,

491
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 1: Kenny Walker. All three of them had multiple years of production.

492
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 1: I want to see how big these guys actually are, Like,

493
00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 1: we want verified size on them. Are they the type

494
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 1: of build that can be an NFL lead back? And

495
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 1: then you know, we want reports on them in the

496
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 1: past catching drills. Can they actually be three down backs,

497
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 1: high volume guys who can contribute on the ground or

498
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 1: through the air. If so, I think all of them

499
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 1: have a decent chance of going in Round two. If

500
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 1: not maybe round two, probably more like rounds three or four.

501
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 1: And there's for running backs a pretty big difference between

502
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 1: the guys who go in round two and the guys

503
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 1: who go after that. And then a couple of wide

504
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 1: receivers really catch my eye. The first one is Treylon

505
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:46,439
Speaker 1: Burke's stud sec receiver Dominator out of Arkansas listed at

506
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 1: six pounds. Is he really that big, right? And then

507
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: if he is, what kind of athleticism accompanies that size?

508
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 1: His tape looks great. Does he have the measurements to

509
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 1: back it up the way that Justin Jefferson and Mark

510
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 1: chased it. If he's big, easily going in round one.

511
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,359
Speaker 1: If he's big and fast, I think he could go

512
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 1: in the top ten. Personally right now, I have him

513
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 1: as the number one wide receiver in the class, and

514
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 1: part that's because Jamison Williams is injured. But I have

515
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: him as the number one wide receiver in the class.

516
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 1: It could could it could change based on the combine,

517
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 1: but I'm excited to see him. And then the other

518
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 1: wide receiver, John Dotson out of Penn State. He's a

519
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 1: do it all type of playmaker. He's scored touchdowns as

520
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 1: a receiver, a runner, as a punt returner. He's a

521
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 1: smaller guy with an electric skill set. And he's on

522
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 1: the round one borderline. So if he blazes a really

523
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: fast forty time and the low four fours or the

524
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 1: high four threes, I think he's gonna go on Day

525
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,640
Speaker 1: one so excited to see what he can do at

526
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 1: the combine, Like a signon has already indicated he's coming

527
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 1: after me for dropping Peter King, but how he casually

528
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 1: drops in there. I got millions who are helping me

529
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 1: manage a lot of I draft research, so I will

530
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 1: throw this one to sign it. Have you or your

531
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 1: minions considered either of the two draft props that are

532
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:15,479
Speaker 1: currently up at fandel number one overall pick or first

533
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: QB taken? Do you have an opinion on either one

534
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 1: of those? Yeah, I definitely struck gall the first overall pick.

535
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 1: I basically was betting on either Detroit having the worst

536
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,560
Speaker 1: record in football or just anyone but like the jack

537
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:31,239
Speaker 1: like the Jaguars, like you just didn't want to have

538
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 1: the worst team and football have a quarterback that they

539
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:36,679
Speaker 1: just drafted last year. So I was hoping it was

540
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,399
Speaker 1: gonna be Detroit and then maybe hit on one of

541
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks to be the first pick, just because you

542
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:42,960
Speaker 1: know Detroit would be desperate and they would maybe just

543
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,159
Speaker 1: take a quarterback. But I failed that one. So the

544
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 1: way the first pick is looking, it seems like they're

545
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:50,159
Speaker 1: either gonna taken offense a lignment or d N with

546
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 1: the Jaguars, So we touched on a little bit this offseason.

547
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,480
Speaker 1: We had d NC state offensive alignment. I don't know

548
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,400
Speaker 1: if you remember, oh, but I remember we talked about

549
00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 1: how his draft numbers were moving, right, so went from

550
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 1: about a hundred oh one to eight to one, seven

551
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: oh one down to five to one to be the

552
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 1: first to roll fixed. So it's between him and it's

553
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 1: kid from Bama right now for offensive linemen, and then

554
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 1: we all know the d n story and stuff. We

555
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:14,400
Speaker 1: got the kid out of Michigan, which is like being

556
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 1: hyped up. So I'm gonna get more into it. But

557
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 1: as we sit here right now, I just see again

558
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk a lot of Jacks this year. People

559
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:23,919
Speaker 1: are gonna learn I really love the Jaguars, and I

560
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:26,680
Speaker 1: love the hire of Doug Peterson, which we can argue

561
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 1: all day about how Carson Wentz might be one of

562
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 1: the worst quarterbacks in football. He turned that get into

563
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 1: a stud and was one number one seed in football

564
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 1: the year he coached Carson Wentz. So that was Carson

565
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 1: went second year. So I'm I'm been in a big

566
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,520
Speaker 1: leap from this Jaguars team with Trevor Lawrence at the

567
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 1: quarterback position. They gotta get offensive lineman. The kid was

568
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 1: running for his life all the time. So if you're

569
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: if you're looking to make I bet right now you

570
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 1: just want action. I like being the first pick overall

571
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 1: being offensive lineman. It's it's good value right now. But

572
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 1: leave the Vanduel was plus one forty. They took it down.

573
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 1: So again, I've been away for a week. Out they

574
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 1: hang it again. It's probably gonna be plus one ten

575
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 1: plus one twenty because all the pros I've talked to

576
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 1: they think the same way I do. They think. Once

577
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 1: they hired Doug Peterson, that's that's the sign they're gonna

578
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 1: take an offensive linement for this team. Freedman number one

579
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 1: over I'll pick first be taken. So on first quarterback taken,

580
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 1: I already have positions. Malik Willis a plus two hundred

581
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 1: and Kinney Pickett plus one seventy five. If fan duel,

582
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 1: those lines are now Malik Willis I believe plus one

583
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 1: fifty and Kinney Pickett plus one twenty. So shout out

584
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 1: me on getting that sweet sweet closing line value. But

585
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 1: I still think that there's value on both of those guys.

586
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 1: I don't see Sam Howell, Matt mac coral, Desmond Ritter.

587
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 1: I don't see any of those guys challenging to be

588
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: the number one quarterback. I think it's a two man

589
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 1: race between Willis and Pike It and for the number

590
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 1: one pick, I mean came on Thibodeaux at six to one.

591
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 1: He is intriguing because, I mean, just a couple of

592
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 1: months ago he seemed kind of locked in is the

593
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 1: number one pick. Now. I do know that we could

594
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 1: see as Simon was mentioning offensive tackle as the number

595
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 1: one player taken, and it's between Evan Neil and Kim

596
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: a Quantu And okay, I think this is very similar

597
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 1: to the situation we have last year where everyone had

598
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 1: Piney Sewell as the number one offensive tackle, but really

599
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 1: close just behind him was Rashawn Slater, and I think

600
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 1: similarly now Neil and a Quantu are very close. Everyone

601
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 1: is saying that Neil is number one, but a Quantu

602
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 1: has a very very good chance of going in the

603
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 1: top five, and if he does well at the combine

604
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: or Evan Neil slips a little bit, a Quantu could

605
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 1: be the top tackle in the class. And right now

606
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 1: he's available ten to one at Vandel I think there's

607
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 1: some value there, so a quantu. If I had to

608
00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 1: make a bet on the number one pick right now,

609
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 1: I would go a quantum. That's exciting. I like both

610
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 1: of these conversations the top q B. I'm just I'm

611
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 1: positive because I'm making a note on ma leak or

612
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 1: pick it and a quanta at number one overall. Freedman,

613
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 1: you know what he came back. I think it shows

614
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 1: what what big people me and Simon and Matt Mitchell

615
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 1: are and that we're having me back on because we

616
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 1: respect your draft authority, even though you know he bailed

617
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 1: on us. But no one questions your largest Chad. Everyone

618
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 1: knows how magnanimous you are as a person all the

619
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 1: way to Cuba. They know absolutely. Chad Millman is proud

620
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 1: of himself. Matt Friedman, chief strategist at f t N.

621
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 1: Check it out really good content, really good ideas on

622
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 1: the ft N network overall, whether you listen to podcasts

623
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 1: or watch it on video or go to the site,

624
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 1: or you're on Twitter at Matt f the Oracle on Twitter.

625
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 1: His m a's are legendary. Simon Hunter professional better might

626
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 1: be f F. I'm so glad you're enjoying your world

627
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 1: tour and taking your job seriously and coming on even

628
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 1: when you're on vacation because I'm not. I'm not doing

629
00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: that for Matt Mitchell, our producer. I am Chad Millman.

630
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the Volume podcast Network.

631
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 1: Download us from Apple Podcasts, got Spotify. Until next time,

632
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 1: I Love you,