1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:05,439 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast. 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these 3 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:16,560 Speaker 2: people over for a second. 4 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. 5 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: We are presented by our friends at bet MGM. I'm 6 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 1: your host today, Brendan Glaschen, joined by Sean. 7 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:35,720 Speaker 3: Zarrillo and Billy Board. 8 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 1: We are here for a UFC betting preview UFC Fight 9 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:44,159 Speaker 1: Night taking place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas 10 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 1: this coming Saturday, UFC ninety five Vegas ninety five will 11 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:50,919 Speaker 1: make our way through the card, Billy and Shawn's Fight 12 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:52,919 Speaker 1: of the night, Underdogs. 13 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 3: Props, and best bets. 14 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:55,640 Speaker 1: We'll start with the main event on the card this week, 15 00:00:56,160 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 1: heavyweight fight between Marccene ty Bura and Serge Speedbok Sean Zarrella. 16 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:04,399 Speaker 3: When you take a look at the betting lines, Speedboc. 17 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 1: Is the favorite minus one seventy Tyberrow plus one forty two, 18 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 1: the round set at three. 19 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 3: And a half. What do you make of the matchup 20 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 3: and how would you like to bet? 21 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:16,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a rematch from February of twenty twenty. 22 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,040 Speaker 4: I believe it was the last, if not one of 23 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 4: the last cards before we went into pandemic shutdown mode. 24 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 4: Ended up coming back with those cards in Jacksonville. But 25 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 4: this was a pick up fight the first time, and 26 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 4: Tibera ended up winning pretty comfortably by al grappling Spevac. 27 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 4: But now Spevak is four years older, He's in his 28 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 4: physical prime. Tibera is thirty eight, nearing the end of 29 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:41,320 Speaker 4: his career, and Stevach has also added twenty pounds of 30 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 4: muscle since the first fight. Tibera had an eleven pound 31 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,839 Speaker 4: twelve pound weight advantage in that first matchup two forty six, 32 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 4: Speedvac was two thirty four. Speedvak is laid weighed in 33 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 4: at two fifty six in his last two fights and 34 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:56,240 Speaker 4: looked much more muscular. He really filled out his frame physically, 35 00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 4: so I would expect him to be bigger and stronger 36 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 4: than he was relative the first fight, whereas Taberah maybe 37 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 4: declining a little bit physically. Now we give heavyweights a 38 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 4: lot of deference even into their forties, so I don't 39 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:11,959 Speaker 4: think tiber is necessarily slowed down. I just think Spivak 40 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 4: is stronger and better and the better athlete relative to 41 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 4: the first fight. Now where does that help him, I'm 42 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 4: not sure, because he had the better boxing in the 43 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 4: first fight and Tybera was trying to grapple in order 44 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 4: to get it, you know, out of danger for him. 45 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 4: But the two takedowns, the first two takedowns that Spevak 46 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 4: gave up, he actually put himself on the ground. Tibera 47 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 4: initiated the takedown and then Spevak I couldn't tell if 48 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 4: he was going for a wizard or if he was 49 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 4: just trying to hip toss Tybera, but either way, both 50 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 4: times he tried to use his weight in his leverage 51 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 4: to get tiber off of him or to get on 52 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 4: top of Tibera, and he ended up putting himself once 53 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 4: on his back, and then the second time he gave 54 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 4: up his back and tiberrow took it. The third round, 55 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:02,359 Speaker 4: take that that Tybera got, he did lock his hands 56 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:04,600 Speaker 4: up against the cage and actually just muscle him down. 57 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,639 Speaker 4: And all three times that Speedbac got put on his back, 58 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,840 Speaker 4: he had nothing to get up with. If Speedvak lands 59 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 4: takedowns here, I think Tybera can get up. If Tibera 60 00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 4: lands takedowns, I don't think Speedbac gets up. Just like 61 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 4: the first fight. So even though Spevak's the better striker, 62 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 4: even though I think his takedown defense should be better 63 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 4: than the first fight. He should be stronger than the 64 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 4: first fight. I Oh, by the way, this fight is 65 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 4: in the apex cage as opposed to a normal size octagon, 66 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 4: so I think he should be able to use the 67 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 4: fence to keep himself upright a little bit more as well. 68 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 4: So I don't see Tyber having as much success with 69 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 4: the grappling as he did in the first fight. I 70 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 4: think Spevak should be the better striker, should be just 71 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:44,320 Speaker 4: a little bit quicker, even though I think both guys 72 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 4: will land. So even though you know this fight was 73 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 4: a pick up the first time, I get why Speedback 74 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 4: has moved towards being the favorite, younger, stronger, you know, 75 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 4: all the ways that he's probably improved relative to the 76 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,400 Speaker 4: first fight, and also the I think the apex cage 77 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 4: helps him a little bit more too. That said, I 78 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 4: still expect this to be another close and competitive fight 79 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 4: that extends where they spend time grappling or clinching against 80 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 4: the cage. And I don't think either guy has particularly 81 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 4: big power either. I don't think either guy's durable for 82 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 4: the heavyweight division. I think they both have average to 83 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,599 Speaker 4: below average durability, but I also think they both have 84 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 4: below average power for heavyweights, and even though they were 85 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:26,039 Speaker 4: both landing relatively clean in the first fight, neither was 86 00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 4: really hurting each other to a significant degree. I think 87 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 4: one certainly could get a submission or get a finish 88 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 4: down the stretch as the other is potentially tiring. Tiber 89 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 4: has only been in the championship rounds once in his career. 90 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:40,719 Speaker 4: Speedvac has never been in his career, even though both 91 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 4: have had made event bookings, So I'm not really sure 92 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 4: how the cardio looks, you know, over the final seven 93 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 4: and a half minutes, But the over three and a 94 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 4: half rounds I think is the best way to bet 95 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:52,359 Speaker 4: this fight. They went to a decision pretty comfortably in 96 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 4: the first fight, nobody ever came close to finishing. I 97 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:58,480 Speaker 4: think they go at least seventeen and a half minutes here. Again, 98 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 4: so the over three and a half, even the ghost 99 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 4: the decision at about plus one fifty plus one seventy, 100 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 4: I made it closer to plus one twenty five. So 101 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 4: I like either fighter to win by decision. I like 102 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:11,599 Speaker 4: another close and competitive decision. I just think Speedback is 103 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 4: going to get the better of the striking and keep 104 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 4: this up a little bit, standing a little bit more 105 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 4: than the first fight. But you know, the main threat 106 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 4: to my bets, the main threat to the over three 107 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 4: and a half, the main threat that ghost of the decision, 108 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 4: I think would be an early speed Vatko. So if 109 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 4: you want to bet speed Vakko one two Speed vack 110 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,480 Speaker 4: Ko one, I think that's the likeliest way this finishes. 111 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: Over on the Action Network app, Actionnetwork dot Com and 112 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: the UFC, Tob Billy Ward puts out his UFC Luck 113 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 1: ratings and those came out a couple days ago, Billy, 114 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 1: and as Shan mentioned, the line has moved about twenty 115 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 1: cents ty burw as you're an underdog now in the 116 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: plus one forty range. As it becomes as you said 117 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 1: a few days ago, it's a fairly valued line at 118 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 1: the time. That's no longer the case. So you tempted 119 00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 1: to take the dog here. 120 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't love it or feel great about it. 121 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 5: It's kind of a weird situation where typically in rematches 122 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 5: we like the fighter who won the first fight, but 123 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:10,599 Speaker 5: typically we also like the younger fighter, so those things 124 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:13,240 Speaker 5: kind of cancel out, even if you look at their resumes. 125 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 5: Since then, it's been weirdly similar. I believe tiber is 126 00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 5: seven and two since then he's lost to tom aspinall 127 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 5: and Alexander Volkov Spivac is six and two. Since then 128 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,800 Speaker 5: he's lost to tom Aspinall and Serio gun Gone and 129 00:06:25,880 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 5: Volkoff are one spot away from each other in the rankings, 130 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 5: and they're fighting soon like they've been the almost the 131 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 5: exact same guy. 132 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 6: They both like to grapple now. 133 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 5: Spivek didn't want to then, but he's kind of morphed 134 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:38,920 Speaker 5: into that a little bit in his recent fights. But yeah, 135 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 5: it's one of those where if this or any other 136 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 5: weight class and one guy was now thirty nine, I'd 137 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 5: be a little bit worried about a big change in 138 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 5: how he performs at heavyweight. Can we say thirty nine 139 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:50,360 Speaker 5: isn't even his prime, like Grandy Coutur won his first 140 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 5: title at fifty two, or however old he was, he 141 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:55,560 Speaker 5: wasn't really that old. I know, guys, but it's just 142 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 5: not as big of a concern with heavyweight. You can't 143 00:06:58,000 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 5: slow down when you were slow to begin with. You 144 00:06:59,839 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 5: can only be so slow, and they seem to both 145 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 5: be be pretty close to as slow as you can be. 146 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 5: So if plus one forty. I like that on the 147 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 5: tyber side, I think broadly speaking, the smaller cage tends 148 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 5: to help the guy who's got the grappling edge. Shaw 149 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 5: make some good points about using that defensively. Again, don't 150 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 5: feel great about it, but plus one forty is a 151 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 5: pretty big number. Seems like money's coming in on Spivac though, 152 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:25,119 Speaker 5: so wait, can you get plus one fifty? 153 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 6: Can you get plus one sixty? 154 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 5: And then last thing, you know, Sean's point is we 155 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 5: think it's going to be close enough to go to 156 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 5: the fourth or fifth round, just like we say with 157 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 5: you know, our female one hundred and fifteen pound fights. 158 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 5: If we think it's going to be really close and 159 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 5: one person's an underdog, you're kind of logically you want 160 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 5: the bigger payout on that coin flip. 161 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,800 Speaker 6: So not my favorite bet, don't especially want. 162 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,680 Speaker 5: To see this fight necessarily, but yeah, I'll take the 163 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 5: plus one forty payoffs if I have to. 164 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 4: The last point I want to make towards the tiber 165 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 4: side of the underdog. His round where he wins should 166 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 4: be clear. When he wins the round with grappling, it's 167 00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 4: going to be obviously his round. The striking rounds are 168 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 4: going to be much close, sort of fifty to fifty, 169 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 4: you know, maybe sixty forty speedback or fifty five to 170 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 4: forty five speedback. But the striking rounds are gonna be competitive, 171 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:10,239 Speaker 4: and I don't really see Speedback holding takedowns or getting 172 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 4: positioned for long. If Tibera gets takedowns, I think it's 173 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 4: his round. So that is just something to add to 174 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 4: the underdog side. He may have one clear round in 175 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 4: his favor, the other four rounds may be up for grabs, 176 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 4: and at that point you certainly want the utter drop deack. 177 00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 1: Okay, very good, there's your main event breakdown the heavyweight 178 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 1: between Tyber and Speedvac. Let's go to Sean and Billy's 179 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 1: fight of the night featherweight matchup, Jose Mariscal and Damon Jackson. 180 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:40,719 Speaker 1: Latest betting line for you Mariscal at minus two h 181 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: five Damon Jackson plus one seventy rounds. 182 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 3: Two and a half. Sean, what do you make of 183 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 3: this one? And where do you see an edge? 184 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 4: Jackson four years older. He's getting in his late thirties, 185 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 4: so for this division, getting a bit old. But I 186 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 4: think he has both the grappling and the strikling edge 187 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 4: in this matchup, I think Chepe is the better athlete. 188 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:00,480 Speaker 4: I don't think he's an amazing athlete. I think he's 189 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 4: an average athlete where Jackson is below average athlete. And 190 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:06,839 Speaker 4: also Chepe is the much more durable fighter with better cardios. 191 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 4: So down the stretch, Chepe takes over this fight pretty consistently, 192 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 4: but I think Jackson gets out to a lead pretty 193 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 4: consistently as well. In round one, Chepe could be grappled. 194 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 4: He's shown regionally he got out grappled by strikers. Granted 195 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 4: this a few years ago, but I think Damon Jackson 196 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 4: is very tricky to fight against. He's very sticky, he 197 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 4: has a lot of top pressure. He's really good at 198 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 4: taking the back and locking in that body triangle, and 199 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 4: I think he outgrapples or out wrestles Chepe pretty consistently 200 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 4: here in round one. The question is whether he can 201 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 4: maintain that for at least ten minutes and then hang 202 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:44,440 Speaker 4: on for a decision in round three. So Jackson pre 203 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:46,800 Speaker 4: fighted about plus one to eighty five, then I would 204 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:49,480 Speaker 4: live bet Chepe after round one, take a little bit 205 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 4: off of that position, and Jackson by decision at plus 206 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:54,839 Speaker 4: five hundred I think is interesting as well, because I 207 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 4: could see him getting control for two rounds and you know, 208 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,560 Speaker 4: getting enough, doing enough over the two rounds to get 209 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 4: points to win a decision. As I said, I think 210 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 4: he's even the better striker on the field. I think 211 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 4: he's more technical. Chepe throws more volume, he's a bit 212 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,560 Speaker 4: more active, and just has more of that dog in him. Right. 213 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,320 Speaker 4: He's he's not going to go away. He's probably not 214 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:16,319 Speaker 4: going to get finished, and I think he's going to 215 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 4: be pouring it on Jackson down the stretch. So Jackson, 216 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:21,199 Speaker 4: as I said, Jackson moneyline pre fight into a Chepe 217 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 4: live bet. I could even see a draw in this fight. 218 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 4: I think it's very possible that Jackson wins the first 219 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:28,439 Speaker 4: two rounds and then Chepe comes back in ten, eights 220 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 4: him or finishes him in round three. So I don't 221 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 4: mind Billy's approach on the fight at all. I think 222 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 4: we're both taking very logical approaches to how this fight 223 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 4: plays out. But I think the Jackson pre fight side 224 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 4: is the side that you want your money on on 225 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 4: the money line perspective, And as I said, his decision 226 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 4: prop at plus five hundred seems like decent value as well. 227 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 1: I'm excited that we can clip Sean Zarella saying he's 228 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 1: got that dog in him. 229 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:57,840 Speaker 4: Just make he does. Though some fighters their best skill 230 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 4: is is cardio and not done. And Chepe I believe 231 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,320 Speaker 4: has never been finished. But he also he'll get knocked 232 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 4: down and pop right back up, like even when he 233 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:09,920 Speaker 4: gets hurt, he seemingly is not affected by it. So 234 00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 4: for judges perspective, for showing, you know, showing the judges, hey, 235 00:11:15,200 --> 00:11:17,840 Speaker 4: that shot didn't affect me. He gives really good body 236 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,560 Speaker 4: language to the judges and a close decision that can 237 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 4: help you a lot, So I think that is absolutely 238 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 4: worth considering. But yeah, the toughness, the cardio, those are 239 00:11:26,800 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 4: his best skills. I think Jackson is the more talented fighter, 240 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:31,559 Speaker 4: but over the final seven and a half minutes that 241 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:32,200 Speaker 4: might not matter. 242 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 1: Bill, you have similar thoughts where you might want to 243 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 1: wait on Chepe. Maybe later in the fight there might 244 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:38,200 Speaker 1: be an edge. 245 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think we're seeing it the same way. I 246 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 5: just feel slightly more confident in Chepe where Sean likes 247 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:48,439 Speaker 5: Jackson a little bit. It's funny you mentioned the athleticism thing. 248 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:50,839 Speaker 5: I did the full fight breakdown here and I think 249 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 5: I put that damon Jackson is the one featherweight that 250 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:56,640 Speaker 5: might make myras Kalla look like a good athlete, right 251 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 5: because when you look at him against other people, you're like, 252 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,200 Speaker 5: and again I always have to say this, I mean, 253 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 5: by UFC standards, right your local CBS, these are the 254 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 5: best athletes there. Compared to other UFC level featherweights, these 255 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 5: are not great athletes, But I think Mariskall is a 256 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:15,319 Speaker 5: cut above Damon Jackson. Damon Jackson is featherweight Neil Magne 257 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 5: at this point, right Like, he's the filtering between the 258 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:21,160 Speaker 5: rankings and just some guy. And it's a good role 259 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:23,600 Speaker 5: to be in, right Like, it's it's not an insult 260 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 5: to use gatekeeper the way some people use it. 261 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:27,199 Speaker 6: It's a good spot. 262 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 5: Like if you aren't one of the best guys in 263 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,319 Speaker 5: the world, or one of the best twenty or thirty, 264 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 5: at the very least, you're not gonna beat Damon Jackson. 265 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 5: The thing I really like about Mariskall and it speaks 266 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:37,679 Speaker 5: to him having that dog in him. 267 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:39,080 Speaker 6: He thought it's. 268 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 5: Either seven or eight future UFC competitors before he ever 269 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 5: got to the UFC. He is not one of these 270 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:48,280 Speaker 5: like pampered pretty boy prospects that crush his cans until 271 00:12:48,280 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 5: they get on a Contender series like he's. He was 272 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,400 Speaker 5: fighting the toughest dudes they had anywhere for you know, 273 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:56,960 Speaker 5: eight hundred bucks at some random arena somewhere, so that 274 00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 5: really does speak to his heart, his determination. I think 275 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 5: he's the better striker by virtue of that athleticism and 276 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 5: that durability and that speed. The only spot I kind 277 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:09,040 Speaker 5: of disagree with Sean on is the grappling, which I 278 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:11,440 Speaker 5: think will be closer to even. I've got the grappling 279 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:13,680 Speaker 5: at even and mars call the better striker, where Shawn's 280 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 5: kind of one step down on each of those. He's 281 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 5: a judo black belt, he's been doing judo forever. Mars Call, 282 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:22,680 Speaker 5: briefly wrestled in college, doesn't have the credentials that Jackson does. 283 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 6: There. 284 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:25,559 Speaker 5: The thing about judo is you can lose via pin 285 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:27,760 Speaker 5: if you're held down in judo for a certain amount 286 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 5: of time, and it's not a guard. 287 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 6: That's an automatic loss. Those guys are good at getting 288 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:32,199 Speaker 6: off their back. 289 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 5: So I have it even in that I don't think 290 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 5: either guy is going to get that top position and 291 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 5: do a ton with it because both are so good 292 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 5: at getting back up, which thus who do you like 293 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 5: more in the striking that gives me chape, So I'm 294 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:46,319 Speaker 5: taking chape in round three or by decision at plus 295 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 5: one pint forty if he gets to finish. I think 296 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:51,200 Speaker 5: it's attritional other than like, you know, a freak hip 297 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:53,720 Speaker 5: toss where Jackson plants his arm and breaks it like 298 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:57,439 Speaker 5: Jack Jenkins did. Obviously you don't see that happening very often. 299 00:13:57,440 --> 00:13:59,160 Speaker 5: That's not something you're going to bet on. So I 300 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 5: could see an attrition will stoppage down the stretches that 301 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 5: athletics takes over, but that also covers the likelier option, 302 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 5: which is Maris called by decision and they're getting plus money. 303 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 4: So yeah, Jackson's had a couple of back ko losses 304 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 4: and I think of him as this cheney fighter, But 305 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:15,560 Speaker 4: those losses were to Eliotaporia and Danny Gay and those 306 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 4: are two of the biggest punching featherweights. So maybe he's 307 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 4: not so chenny, but I do think that, as he said, 308 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 4: the attritional finish, the cardio down the stretch. If the 309 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 4: finish comes, it's likely round three. 310 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:27,480 Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast Everybody Is Brought to You by 311 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 1: bet MGM used the bonus code action when signing up 312 00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 1: to get up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus 313 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:34,800 Speaker 1: bets if your first bet does not win. 314 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 3: For new users in Arizona. 315 00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 1: Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, 316 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:46,360 Speaker 1: North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming. 317 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 3: Terms and conditions apply. 318 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 1: Must be twenty one plus gambling problem called one eight 319 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 1: hundred gambler as it pertains to underdogs. As we've mentioned 320 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 1: before on this podcast, and we do with these betting previews. 321 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 1: We have a rundown. 322 00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 3: Taking folks behind the curtain, but we have rundown. 323 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 1: We have a sheet that we the guys fill out 324 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 1: before we get going, and Billy kind of jumped on 325 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:07,840 Speaker 1: this first as far as an underdog is concerned. So Billy, 326 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 1: I'll let you go first and lead with your favorite 327 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:10,640 Speaker 1: underdog on the car. 328 00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, the other heavyweight fight on the card arguably a 329 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,600 Speaker 5: much more exciting heavyweight fight. I've got Jennada Denise at 330 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 5: plus one seventy five. For those that don't know his background, 331 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 5: he's kind of like the heavyweight version of Alex Peda 332 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 5: where he's coming in with a very very extensive kickboxing background, 333 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 5: has some you know, world or international level titles as 334 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 5: a kickboxer, not a ton of MMA experience. I believe 335 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 5: five total fight seven total fights, five before he got 336 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 5: to the promotion, one in the Contender Series, one in 337 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 5: the UFC proper. He's won them all by knockout. Only 338 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:45,320 Speaker 5: once has he gone to the second round. He's fighting 339 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 5: Carl Williams, who is the exact optite Carl Williams is 340 00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:51,480 Speaker 5: for a big athletic dude who was like I think, 341 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 5: tried out for the Olympics, is one hundred meter dash 342 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 5: and then one hundred meter dash, wrestled you know, at 343 00:15:57,560 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 5: a high level, but just puts on the most boring 344 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 5: like plotting fights. I'm just going to control you against 345 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 5: the fence or get some takedowns and do nothing with it. 346 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 5: It's kind of the inverse about what we talk about 347 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 5: sometimes with fights. We expect to go to a decision 348 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 5: where we want the underdog. If one guy has finishing 349 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 5: upside and one guy doesn't. If you can get the 350 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 5: guy with the finishing upside at plus money, I'm gonna 351 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 5: take it. The worst case scenario for Denise is probably 352 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 5: he gets three chances to start each round on his 353 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 5: feet and try to find a knockout, where Williams is 354 00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:28,240 Speaker 5: just going to try to control him and not really 355 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:32,680 Speaker 5: hunt for finishes in Denise against a least athletically similar 356 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 5: opponent in his last fight, kind of passed the test 357 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 5: on the ground. He stayed safe, he got back to 358 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 5: his feet. He's not gonna submit anyone off his back 359 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 5: or anything crazy. But if he can survive, that gives 360 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 5: him enough opportunity to stand up and bang. Even if 361 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 5: he's getting taken down and controlled for parts of the round. 362 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 5: If he lands bigger shots on the feet, he could 363 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,200 Speaker 5: also just win the round on the judge's scorecard by 364 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 5: doing more damage, which is kind of why I'm playing 365 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 5: Denise's money line and not just his knockout prop. That's 366 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 5: what Sean's gonna mention here in this spot, but I 367 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 5: think the logic's pretty similar. 368 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 4: Carl Williams is a state champion in the one hundred 369 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 4: meter to ash the guy's two hundred thirty five pounds. Incredible, 370 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:12,200 Speaker 4: what an athlete. Yeah, so, I think Williams showed big 371 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 4: concerns cardio wise in his last fight against Tafa. He 372 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 4: as he typically does, kept getting takedowns, but Tafa was 373 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 4: actually scrambling up and it seemed like somebody making him 374 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 4: work made Williams tire out. Now, Denise was held down 375 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 4: for an entire round by Austin Lane, who is a 376 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 4: football player, not a wrestler, so I think that was 377 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 4: extremely concerning for his prospects in this fight. He needs 378 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 4: to make severe improvements not only to the grappling, but 379 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 4: also also with his urgency to getting off of his 380 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 4: back after he's taken down, because I'm pretty certain Williams 381 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:46,879 Speaker 4: is going to land takedowns here. The question is just 382 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 4: whether Denise tries to get up or not. But I 383 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 4: think later in the fight he's gonna have opportunities regardless 384 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:55,360 Speaker 4: because I think the takedowns will become tougher for Williams. 385 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 4: If again, if Denise shows any resistance at any point 386 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 4: of the first two rounds, I think the takedown will 387 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,120 Speaker 4: eventually become tougher to get. And you saw Tava hurt 388 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:05,320 Speaker 4: Williams nearly put him away in the third rounds, so 389 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:08,440 Speaker 4: I think Denise could follow a pretty similar game plan. 390 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:10,679 Speaker 4: It is kind of the style he has had to 391 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 4: fight through his MMA career being the kickboxer getting taken 392 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 4: down and just sort of waiting out rounds until his 393 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 4: opportunities the knock opponents out. I don't know how many 394 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 4: opportunities he's going to get here. I don't know how 395 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:23,280 Speaker 4: much he's going to spend on his back. This could 396 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 4: be a fight where he spends fourteen and a half 397 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:27,200 Speaker 4: minutes on his back. If Williams, you know, fights the 398 00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:32,360 Speaker 4: game plan. But Denise's KO I think is extremely live 399 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:35,960 Speaker 4: considering Williams recklessness to some of his entries. He does 400 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:37,920 Speaker 4: shoot from pretty far away in the cage, and then 401 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 4: also his gast and his chin in round three, I 402 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 4: think he's very capable of getting finished at some point 403 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,439 Speaker 4: by some heavyweight opponent who can actually show resistance in 404 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:51,680 Speaker 4: the grappling. So Denise KO plus three thirty five I 405 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 4: think was the best number I saw. Hopefully he tries 406 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:57,359 Speaker 4: to counter rap a little better at least scrabble if 407 00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:58,119 Speaker 4: he's taken out. 408 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 6: Only other thing that one. 409 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,119 Speaker 5: It's kind of like a spectrum of risk reward here 410 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 5: where you can take the Denise knockout is you know, 411 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 5: the most high return, But Denise in the finish only 412 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,120 Speaker 5: market is even money. Yeah, Carl Williams doesn't even try 413 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 5: to finish people with takedown. So if you want to 414 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:15,720 Speaker 5: make this a safe pick and you know, bout it 415 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 5: a little bit bigger, but maybe get it returned if 416 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,120 Speaker 5: it goes to a decision, you can get even money 417 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 5: on disease finish only. And then Denise's money line is 418 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 5: kind of the midpoint in there. So it's really just 419 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 5: those all make sense to me. It's just like a 420 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:29,680 Speaker 5: risk tolerance thing and how big how much you want 421 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,840 Speaker 5: to chase on this one versus what level of safety 422 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:34,360 Speaker 5: you want. 423 00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: And speaking just to dogs overall, Sean and Billy you 424 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,520 Speaker 1: can weigh on weighing on this too. It's not a 425 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 1: lot of you don't see a lot of value. It's 426 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:44,399 Speaker 1: it's only a ten fight card right six on the 427 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 1: main card, four prelims. There's not a whole lot of 428 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 1: value as far as dogs this week. 429 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 4: There's two other dogs that I'm betting against in terms 430 00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 4: of finish props because I think they are the value 431 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 4: on the money line side of the fight. That would 432 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:59,919 Speaker 4: be journal Errands and journal ERNs against use of Sowah 433 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:04,360 Speaker 4: and then also Nikola I Verrettnakoff against Danny Barlow. We're 434 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:06,679 Speaker 4: gonna get to those fights in a minute. I do 435 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 4: think though, the underdogs in both of those fights, from 436 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 4: a pure money line perspective, are the value side. I 437 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,720 Speaker 4: would not lay chalk on the favorite. But there's only 438 00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 4: ten fights on the card. We had a few cancelations. 439 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 4: Not too many underdogs caught my eye, and the ones 440 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 4: who did I think I ended up betting against in 441 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,240 Speaker 4: terms of finished prop. So yeah, Dama Jackson the lone 442 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 4: underdog in this this card that really caught my eye 443 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 4: denis that I'll be betting in the prop market. 444 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 3: Okay, it's head to prop Sean, We're uh give them 445 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:33,959 Speaker 3: to us. 446 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:34,440 Speaker 6: What do you got? 447 00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,000 Speaker 4: Yeah? So the first of the two guys I mentioned 448 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:40,400 Speaker 4: us Off Salal against Jarna ERNs Aerons was just promoted 449 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 4: to blue belt. Yusef Salal is a brown belt who 450 00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:47,159 Speaker 4: submitted a Gracie black belt and Billy Quarantio in his 451 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:49,120 Speaker 4: last fight. Not only submitted him in the second round, 452 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 4: nearly submitted him in the first round two after hurting 453 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 4: him and Zalal in his last week. This is his 454 00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 4: second stint in the UFC. His last fight before coming 455 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,119 Speaker 4: back to the UFC choked down an opponent too. I 456 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:01,120 Speaker 4: think this is a guy who twenty five, he's coming 457 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:04,680 Speaker 4: into his own He's recognized that he needs to change 458 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:08,040 Speaker 4: up his style a little bit in order to proactively 459 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:09,920 Speaker 4: finish upon its because he used to be more of 460 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,280 Speaker 4: a point fighter. And I think he has a severe 461 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 4: grappling edge in this fight. I think he is a 462 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 4: bigger grappling edge in this fight than he had in 463 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,439 Speaker 4: the last fight, Like a significantly bigger grappling edge than 464 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,399 Speaker 4: he did in the last fight. So yeah, zilal as 465 00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,440 Speaker 4: I said, the money line is blown out a little bit. 466 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,240 Speaker 4: If he gets caught in a striking fight with Jarno Erins. 467 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 4: Earns is a very good striker and could absolutely outpoint him, 468 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:34,160 Speaker 4: but if he pursues the grappling edge, he should comfortably 469 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,120 Speaker 4: cover his price and also likely finish the fight. So's 470 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 4: the law by submission of plus three hundred, we're inside 471 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 4: the distance at plus two hundred, and then char Lampo's 472 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:51,160 Speaker 4: Grigororu Amazing Name against Toshiomi Kazama. Pretty binary fight, binary 473 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:56,400 Speaker 4: striker versus grappler fight. Kazama the grappler, Gregorio the striker, 474 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,440 Speaker 4: and I think he has bigger power. I don't like 475 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 4: Kazama's chin. He's been knocked out out on road to UFC. 476 00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 4: By the way Kazama rode to UFC fighters in general, 477 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 4: I think are pretty low level and I'm generally looking 478 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:13,200 Speaker 4: to bet against them. And Charlappos is well trained, one 479 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,960 Speaker 4: of my long island guys. I think he should have 480 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 4: the power to hurt Kazama and put him away rather quickly. 481 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 4: So Gregorio inside the distance at minus one point twenty. 482 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,120 Speaker 4: I don't think Kazama is able to forget this fight 483 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 4: to the matten. He's gonna get KOed pretty quickly. 484 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:32,000 Speaker 3: Billy, how about yourself in the prop market? Where do 485 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 3: you see value? 486 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 6: Yeah? 487 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 5: Looking one that Sean has alluded to, and we'll also 488 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:38,399 Speaker 5: talk about a little bit with his best bet, but 489 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 5: Danny left handed God Barlow versus Veratnikoff short notice fight 490 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,520 Speaker 5: for Verrattnikoff. He was supposed to get a second shot 491 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,359 Speaker 5: on the Contender Series this year after losing to Michael 492 00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:51,800 Speaker 5: Morale as a couple of years ago, got called up 493 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,320 Speaker 5: to this one. The interesting thing about Ratnakoff's first appearance 494 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:57,880 Speaker 5: on the Contender Series against Michael Morales is he turned 495 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 5: Michael Morales into a grappler and seen Morales look really 496 00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:05,200 Speaker 5: good since then, primarily with his striking. So that tells 497 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 5: me that he's at least dangerous enough that he's making 498 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 5: people feel that Danny Barlow's nickname. 499 00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 6: I didn't make this up. 500 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,520 Speaker 5: It's left hand to God, all one word, and he 501 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 5: just swings wild. He's landing like nine significant strikes per minute, 502 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,119 Speaker 5: almost all of his wins by knockout. You know what 503 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,639 Speaker 5: he's trying to do. He is not being sneaky with 504 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,720 Speaker 5: his game plan. He is not going to confuse anyone 505 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 5: with his intentions. We know the Danny Barlow method here. 506 00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:31,960 Speaker 5: I think this will be a pretty violent striking match 507 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 5: between both guys who can crack a little bit. Rettnikoff 508 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 5: arguably a little bit more technical, but big discrepancy in speed, power, athleticism, 509 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 5: all that stuff to Barlow. You can get this one 510 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 5: to end in knockout either guy at minus one thirty five. 511 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,480 Speaker 5: Sean's gonna take kind of some similar angles here or 512 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:51,159 Speaker 5: some similar mentions. I think that's the way that covers 513 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,160 Speaker 5: the most ground without giving up something that I see 514 00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,440 Speaker 5: is or giving up too much of a price. I 515 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,560 Speaker 5: should say, while covering the most ground, I like Sean's 516 00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:01,919 Speaker 5: angles too, So I think we're saying, broadly speaking, the 517 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 5: same thing. It's kind of like we talked about with 518 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,760 Speaker 5: in the Is there some risk reward calculations here and 519 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 5: how confident you feel on either guy. 520 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 1: And Sean you can take it here for best bets, 521 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 1: you've got a flurry of a flurry of ways to 522 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:16,720 Speaker 1: get it on Barlow. 523 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,359 Speaker 4: Yeah, Barlow inside the distance and even money is my 524 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 4: favorite way to bet this fight. But there's some alternate 525 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:24,520 Speaker 4: angles I think I may mess around with. I'm going 526 00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 4: to decide which ones I want to play. So, first off, 527 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,399 Speaker 4: Barlow foreign's reach advantage for Retnikov on short notice. As 528 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,359 Speaker 4: Billy mentioned, he was going to fight for a second 529 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:37,000 Speaker 4: opportunity on Contenders series, and he's thirty three years old. 530 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 4: He's four years older in this fight. So he's not 531 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 4: or he's five years older in this fight. He's thirty four. 532 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,080 Speaker 4: He's not some young prospect that the UFC is looking 533 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:48,119 Speaker 4: to sign promote up the rankings quickly. He's a roster 534 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 4: filler with a good record who's fought well regionally and 535 00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 4: hasn't been finished in ten years. But Danny Barlow is different, 536 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,680 Speaker 4: and it's very difficult to cover minus three hundred and 537 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,679 Speaker 4: appear striking fight, which is why I said Retnikov on 538 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,959 Speaker 4: the money line maybe the side, because over fifteen minutes, 539 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 4: if he doesn't get finished, I think he's very likely 540 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:12,360 Speaker 4: to make this close and competitive. However, I think Barlow 541 00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 4: finishes him at a pretty high clip. But if he does, 542 00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,720 Speaker 4: I think he does so early. This is guy who's 543 00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:18,800 Speaker 4: five of eight wins in round one and his last 544 00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 4: fight against Josh Quinland, who Quentland's a very durable fighter. 545 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 4: He hit him with ninety five significant strikes and all 546 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,919 Speaker 4: of those were significant. I mean he beat the crap 547 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,560 Speaker 4: out of Josh Quinland, tripled him up on shrikes, hit 548 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,800 Speaker 4: him a lot, and Quinland wore the kind of damage 549 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,359 Speaker 4: where you watch it and you're like, I don't know 550 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,720 Speaker 4: how many fighters are taking this many power punches and survive. 551 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 4: So to me, Barlow ko's guys early more often than not, 552 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:50,119 Speaker 4: especially lower level short notice replacements. I think he finishes 553 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,880 Speaker 4: guys on the lower rung of the MMA spectrum more 554 00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:57,080 Speaker 4: often than not. I think his power is different, his 555 00:25:57,200 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 4: size is a little different, and I think when he 556 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 4: touches people he's going to hurt them more than they're 557 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,400 Speaker 4: expecting to or more than they're used to. So it's 558 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,120 Speaker 4: round one odds at plus three twenty I think are interesting. Obviously. 559 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:12,119 Speaker 4: I like the inside the distance at even money, but 560 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 4: then also the unders, the under one and a half, 561 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,680 Speaker 4: the ends inside the distance at about plus one fifty 562 00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:19,680 Speaker 4: and minus one seventy five, respectively. I think those might 563 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:21,560 Speaker 4: be solid bets as well. I know Billy's on the 564 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 4: ko prop. I just like to protect against the club 565 00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:26,879 Speaker 4: and sub you know, to a degree if there's not 566 00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:31,359 Speaker 4: a huge price discrepancy. But yeah, I think Barlow is 567 00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,120 Speaker 4: a pure finisher and a guy who's going to continue 568 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,400 Speaker 4: to skyrocket up the rankings. They're going to keep matching 569 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:41,119 Speaker 4: them up well. But yeah, you know, you see you 570 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,560 Speaker 4: see the finished record for Retnikov. It hasn't happened in 571 00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 4: ten years. I just think Barlow is different, and sometimes 572 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 4: you just bet on the guys I thought tom As 573 00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 4: when all was different. Sometimes you bet on the guys 574 00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 4: you think are different athletes. I think Danny Barlow is 575 00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:57,359 Speaker 4: a different athlete. So even money on his inside the 576 00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,200 Speaker 4: distance prop, I don't think you're going to be getting 577 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 4: that on against fighters at this level for very long. 578 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 4: I think you know if he Kao's Retnikov, if he 579 00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,400 Speaker 4: fights another guy at for Retnikov's level, the Ko line 580 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,919 Speaker 4: is going to be minus two hundred. So taking the 581 00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:12,960 Speaker 4: price before I think it blows out his future. 582 00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:15,640 Speaker 3: All right, Billy, you can take us home. 583 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:19,280 Speaker 1: Your best bet lands in the women's bantamweight matchup. 584 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, more of a final bet than a best bet. 585 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,040 Speaker 5: I think Denis is probably my favorite play. But Chelsea 586 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:27,520 Speaker 5: Chandler at plus one twenty five, she's fighting Yana Santos 587 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:31,680 Speaker 5: used to be Yana Kunitskaya, now married to Piago Santos. 588 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,320 Speaker 5: Yana Santos is not won to fight in a little 589 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,959 Speaker 5: bit over three years, fought tough for competition, so it's 590 00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 5: a bit of a step down as much as there is, 591 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,160 Speaker 5: you know, in these weight classes that are a little 592 00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 5: bit thinner, Chelsea Chandler kind of on the come up 593 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 5: a little bit two and one in the UFC good grappling, 594 00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 5: a little bit more athletic. The thing I noticed here, though, 595 00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,960 Speaker 5: is this line moved pretty heavily towards Santos just because 596 00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,399 Speaker 5: she posted a picture on Instagram of her looking kind 597 00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 5: of jack, which to me is not like good handicapping, 598 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,560 Speaker 5: because you know, she looked kind of shredded before a fight. Cool, 599 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:06,240 Speaker 5: but she's also probably well past her prime, had a 600 00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 5: kid a couple of years ago. 601 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:07,919 Speaker 3: You know. 602 00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,400 Speaker 5: Chandler is basically just now becoming a full time pro 603 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 5: fighter within the last year or two, which is something 604 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:15,800 Speaker 5: I like to look at. These people that were probably 605 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:18,919 Speaker 5: working other full time jobs and kind of just training 606 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,320 Speaker 5: and fighting in the evenings or whatever. They get that 607 00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,840 Speaker 5: UFC deal. They make enough money that they can kind 608 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:26,080 Speaker 5: of do this all the time. I expect a little 609 00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:28,919 Speaker 5: bit more improvement from her than I do from Santos 610 00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:30,320 Speaker 5: at this point in her career. 611 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:32,720 Speaker 6: Wish there is more of an age gap here. 612 00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 5: Chelsea Chandler, despite being pretty new in her career, is 613 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,800 Speaker 5: thirty three, I think, like six months younger than Santos, 614 00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,440 Speaker 5: a year younger than Santos, something like that. Don't love that, 615 00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,480 Speaker 5: but at plus money plus it's also a fight that 616 00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 5: we think probably goes to a decision more often than not. 617 00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 5: We got an underdog on one side. Again, not a 618 00:28:49,040 --> 00:28:51,680 Speaker 5: bet I'm running out to the bank to make a 619 00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,880 Speaker 5: huge withdrawal to make, But I do like it at 620 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:55,720 Speaker 5: plus money. 621 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:57,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, what is that fight like? Minus four hundred minus 622 00:28:57,800 --> 00:28:59,800 Speaker 4: four fifty go to a decision. It's very up up. 623 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:01,680 Speaker 4: One of the more tree stop fights we'll see in 624 00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:06,360 Speaker 4: the Apex minus three hundred. There is another woman's fight 625 00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 4: in the car, though I believe it has a minus 626 00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,120 Speaker 4: four hundred goes to decision prop. 627 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,360 Speaker 6: So yeah, Hosea and Panny. 628 00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,680 Speaker 4: Oh yeah, hose and panic caans idea minus four fifty, 629 00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,120 Speaker 4: which might be the most juiced GTD prop I've seeing 630 00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:21,200 Speaker 4: in an Apex fight, because, as we know, the Apex 631 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:23,760 Speaker 4: fights and inside the distance about fifteen percent more often 632 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:27,680 Speaker 4: then your typical cage. But also nobody's finishing handing fights 633 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 4: this year with the new gloves, so maybe it doesn't 634 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:31,800 Speaker 4: even matter, you know, fifteen percent of nothing is still nothing. 635 00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 5: I thought about that one too, as with the similar logic, 636 00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,600 Speaker 5: I just don't I don't think Panny has a skill 637 00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 5: set to make this look it's close for our Carol 638 00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:44,760 Speaker 5: hos is very active, very athletic. And then the other 639 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,440 Speaker 5: the female opener fight. I'll mention that one too, another 640 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 5: rematch that probably nobody asked for if they had to draw. 641 00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:51,240 Speaker 6: In the Contender series. 642 00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,680 Speaker 5: If you want to take Alan Carr a pre fight 643 00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:55,880 Speaker 5: and then just wait till you get plus money on 644 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,440 Speaker 5: Luciano or whatever we're calling here, because they both have 645 00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:01,680 Speaker 5: seven names, and just get plus money on both sides. 646 00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,640 Speaker 5: I think that's probably going to be there Alan Carr 647 00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,080 Speaker 5: as much I like to tease jiu jitsu people like 648 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:10,080 Speaker 5: six time world champion really good for a round, but 649 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:11,840 Speaker 5: it takes her twenty takedowns to get one, and then 650 00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,080 Speaker 5: she gets tyrid and you can take her opponents. So 651 00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:16,240 Speaker 5: that's another like, I don't want to have a position 652 00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:18,240 Speaker 5: on that fight, but I think it's a pretty easy 653 00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:20,320 Speaker 5: way to end up with plus money tickets on both women. 654 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, I might just wait for a lot bet on Luciano, 655 00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 4: but I think she's the clear live side. 656 00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:25,560 Speaker 3: All right, very good. 657 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 1: There you go your UFC betting preview for Vegas ninety 658 00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,120 Speaker 1: five at the Apex. Six on the main card and 659 00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,400 Speaker 1: four prelimbs. It all get started on the ESPN Family 660 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:39,840 Speaker 1: of Networks four o'clock Eastern for the pre limbs, seven 661 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,240 Speaker 1: o'clock Eastern for the main card for Billy. 662 00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:43,920 Speaker 3: Ward and Shan Zerillo. 663 00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,160 Speaker 1: Be sure to find those guys in the free award 664 00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 1: winning Action Network app. Also all of the UFC betting 665 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:52,960 Speaker 1: content over on on the app. Also actionnetwork dot com 666 00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 1: for Billy and Sewn. 667 00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 3: Brendan glass Sheen. 668 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,840 Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in to another UFC betting preview here 669 00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast z hned by bet MGM 670 00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:02,040 Speaker 1: best of Block. 671 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:03,600 Speaker 3: Talk to you again next week. 672 00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:16,840 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 673 00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,680 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 674 00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,800 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler