1 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:03,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to two percent. I'm your host, Michael Easter. Today's 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: guest is Maria Konikova. So Maria got her PhD studying 3 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: psychology specifically decision making at Columbia University, and then once 4 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: she had done all those years in school at a 5 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 1: very high level, she decided to go to a real 6 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:20,439 Speaker 1: life decision making laboratory the best there is. She decided 7 00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 1: to go all in as being a professional poker player. 8 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: Now it turns out that poker might be the best 9 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 1: way that we all can learn how to make better 10 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: decisions every single day. 11 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 2: So she happens to be in town. 12 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:35,600 Speaker 1: For the World Series of Poker, which is happening in 13 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 1: Las Vegas right now. So we dragged her into the 14 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 1: studio and she's going to break down the art, science 15 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:43,880 Speaker 1: and psychology of how you can make better decisions, no matter. 16 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:44,159 Speaker 2: What they are. 17 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: So with all that said, we'll take a quick break 18 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 1: and we're going to bring in Maria. 19 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 2: Maria, thanks for coming on, Thanks so much for having Michael. 20 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: Okay, so you go to Columbia, you get a PhD 21 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: in psychology specifically decision making, right yep. But then you 22 00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 1: come across game theory and this guy who argues poker 23 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 1: as one of the best ways to understand decision making. 24 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 1: So you go, Okay, maybe there's a book here, and 25 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 1: instead of just looking at it from the outside, you're like, 26 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 1: I'm going to. 27 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 2: Go all in on poker for a year. Now. That 28 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:24,399 Speaker 2: was what ten years ago, It was a. 29 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 3: Little less than ten years ago. So I started playing. 30 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 3: I picked up my first hand of cards in twenty seventeen. 31 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:34,319 Speaker 1: Okay, And now here we are twenty twenty six, yep, 32 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 1: and you're literally playing in the World Series of Poker. 33 00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,400 Speaker 3: I am literally playing in the World Series of Poker. 34 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 3: We're doing this in Vegas. I'm taking a day off 35 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 3: and we are taping this one day before I play 36 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:46,480 Speaker 3: the main event. 37 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 2: So you caught some sort of bug. 38 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 3: I definitely did, in the sense of realizing that poker 39 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 3: really is the best tool I have personally ever encountered 40 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 3: to teach good decision and it's something that I started 41 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 3: just believing fervently in as a tool to teach people 42 00:02:07,000 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 3: to be better, to make better decisions. And so I 43 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 3: decided to stay in that world and to kind of 44 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 3: straddle the worlds of writing and poker because it unlocked 45 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 3: something in the way that I approached decision making the 46 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:21,239 Speaker 3: way I approached kind of my life, the way I 47 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 3: approached the world, and I felt that if other people 48 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:27,959 Speaker 3: could discover it, they would be better, Their lives would 49 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:29,639 Speaker 3: be better, the world would be a better place. I 50 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 3: know it sounds ridiculous to be like, if everyone plays poker, 51 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:33,959 Speaker 3: the world would be a better place, but I actually 52 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 3: believe that's true because I think that makes people much 53 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 3: more rational, kind of better, able to deal with emotions, 54 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:44,680 Speaker 3: with all sorts of things, and it puts decision making 55 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 3: on a different level that can help us become better 56 00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,119 Speaker 3: and in total, the world becomes better. 57 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 2: Yeah. 58 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 1: So one thing I love too is that, I mean 59 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: a lot of journalists they look at things from the outside, 60 00:02:56,440 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: they observe, they talk to sources, But you actually started. 61 00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 2: Playing with your own money. 62 00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 1: Yes, why was that skin in the game, literal financial 63 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 1: skin in the game important? And then what do you 64 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: think it tells us about like broader decisions and learning 65 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 1: when we actually have a stake in something. 66 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, so first of all, I felt like, 67 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 3: you know, I wanted to pull at George Plimpton just 68 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 3: like and just to actually like do the thing, because 69 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 3: I do think that that's really important. And it was, 70 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 3: you know, talking about getting out of your comfort zone, 71 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 3: something that you know something about. I knew nothing about poker. 72 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 3: This was a world that was totally foreign to me. 73 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 3: It's a very very masculine world. So I come from 74 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 3: the world of media, which already is pretty male centric. 75 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 3: And you know, my first job in media was as 76 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 3: a TV producer, so you know, you know how that is. 77 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 3: You know that world well, and then you get to 78 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 3: poker and you realize, oh wow, like in any given field, 79 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 3: anywhere between ninety six and ninety eight percent of the 80 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 3: field is going to be male. And if you get 81 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 3: a field where it's ninety six percent mail, all the 82 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 3: organizers are like, this is amazing, Like we crushed it, guys. 83 00:04:06,440 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 2: Look at the. 84 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 3: Number of women playing. This is so cool and so 85 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:13,120 Speaker 3: like everything about it was just very different from what 86 00:04:13,240 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 3: I did. But I felt like the only way to 87 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,680 Speaker 3: make this work is if I actually understood it, if 88 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 3: I actually learned it and saw like, is you know, 89 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 3: what is this thing? Right? If I just if I 90 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 3: just describe it, then it becomes you know, it's journalist. 91 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 3: I'm sure you know, I don't become an astrophysicist. Just 92 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:34,600 Speaker 3: because I'm interviewing you know, Neil Decrasse Tyson. I don't 93 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 3: suddenly decide to get a PhD in that. But this 94 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 3: was something where I felt like it could potentially be 95 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:42,799 Speaker 3: a tool to decision making because of John Matt Nuyman, 96 00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 3: as you mentioned, because of the Game Theorist, Yes, the 97 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:49,919 Speaker 3: Game Theorist guy, because of what he wrote about poker 98 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:52,839 Speaker 3: being able to teach you how to think strategically at 99 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 3: the highest level. And the reason that I had to 100 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 3: play with my own money I felt like I had 101 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 3: to was that from what I know in psychology is 102 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 3: that you actually have to have stakes be real in 103 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,839 Speaker 3: order for learning to take place. People don't learn well 104 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 3: when you put them in an environment where, like you know, 105 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 3: they don't really care about the outcome. So whenever I 106 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 3: designed studies, and whether it was for you know, undergrads 107 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 3: or you know, I worked with everyone from undergraduate Columbia 108 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 3: students to Wall Street hedge fund people, portfolio managers, people 109 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:33,920 Speaker 3: who have lots of money. You have to figure out 110 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 3: how do you actually make them have skin in the 111 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,920 Speaker 3: game so that they care, so that they take this seriously. 112 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 3: For students, you know, I give them twenty bucks, right, 113 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:44,919 Speaker 3: like great, it's amazing. And you know, all of the 114 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 3: all of the studies that we did, the better they did, 115 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 3: the more money they got, like it was actually real 116 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 3: financial outcomes. So we got them to perform really well. 117 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 3: They cared, They cared. H portfolio manager is like twenty 118 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 3: bucks not so much. So what we did with for 119 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 3: that was we had them compete against each other. We 120 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 3: actually like they kind of had rankings and then they cared, 121 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 3: Oh oh shit, like I better, I better do well 122 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 3: because I you know, I want to perform well. And 123 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:14,360 Speaker 3: so you have to you have to figure out what 124 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 3: is something that makes this real. And my graduate advisor 125 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 3: was the late great Walter Michelle, who people might know 126 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 3: as the Marshmallow Guy, the person who could created the 127 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 3: marshmallow test, famous test of preschoolers originally in Stanford, the 128 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 3: Being Preschool huge study, huge study still going on, where 129 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:37,479 Speaker 3: you know, put a people think marshmallow in front of 130 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:40,040 Speaker 3: a kid. I say people think because it was all 131 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,520 Speaker 3: sorts of things. You find out what's the treat that 132 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 3: that kid wants, and that's that's the treat, and then 133 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 3: see how long they wait. But I learned from that 134 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:51,159 Speaker 3: that the only reason that that study worked and was 135 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 3: diagnostic was because you put them in a situation where 136 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 3: they wanted it and they actually cared. It was a 137 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,120 Speaker 3: hot stimulus. If you put them in a situation and 138 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:02,720 Speaker 3: it's not something that they really care about. I mean, 139 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:04,600 Speaker 3: if you put money in front of a three year old, 140 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 3: like I would hope that they are like, I've, uh, 141 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:09,039 Speaker 3: I don't know what what am I supposed to do 142 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,920 Speaker 3: with this exactly exactly. Maybe I'll you know, make an 143 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 3: airplane or whatever it is if it's a particularly dexterous 144 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 3: three year old. But so you have to you have 145 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:22,880 Speaker 3: to make sure that someone cares. And if it's not 146 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 3: your money, you know, it's very difficult to learn correctly. 147 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 3: And that's why I always tell people like who are 148 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 3: starting out who want to play booker, I was like, 149 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 3: I don't care. You know, it doesn't have to be 150 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 3: a lot of money. You can play micro stakes, you know, 151 00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 3: you can play online for like one cent, two cent, 152 00:07:39,040 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 3: but it has to be real. Don't play for play money, right, 153 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 3: Don't don't do that because you're going to pick up 154 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 3: bad habits because you'll be like I don't care, like 155 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 3: I'm all in, Like let's just and what you're trying 156 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 3: to learn is that this is not gambling, right, This 157 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 3: is actually a highly skilled game of decision making, and 158 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 3: you have to try to make the best decisions you can, 159 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 3: and you care about it if there's money involved. And 160 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 3: I am so far from the first person to kind 161 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:08,000 Speaker 3: of understand that you have to put your money where 162 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 3: your mouth is. One of the people I quoted in 163 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:15,320 Speaker 3: the Biggest bluff was Emmanuel Kant, who almost became a 164 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 3: professional gambler by the way. We're We're happy, We're happy. 165 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 3: He didn't, but he had this absolutely incredible chapter and 166 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 3: defensive reason which is all about the need to incentivize 167 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 3: decision making. And it really stuck with me was this 168 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 3: scenario of imagine you go to a doctor. You say, 169 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 3: you know, hey, doctor, like there's something wrong with me, 170 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 3: like these aren't The doctor says, oh, like this, I know, 171 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 3: I know exactly what it is. Here's what it is, like, 172 00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 3: here's your diagnosis. But what if you ask that doctor, okay, well, 173 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 3: how sure are you how much are you willing to 174 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:53,720 Speaker 3: pay to say that? Okay, this is what I believe 175 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 3: ten dollars Obviously it wasn't dollars we're talking about con 176 00:08:57,240 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 3: but ten dollars, one hundred dollars, dollars, ten thousand dollars, 177 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 3: your wife, your marriage, you're happy, like, what what is 178 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:07,320 Speaker 3: kind of what are we talking about? How certain are you? 179 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:10,480 Speaker 3: And then all of a sudden, the doctor recalibrates and says, oh, well, 180 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,520 Speaker 3: you know this isn't necessarily my area of expertise, Like 181 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 3: maybe you know you need a second opinion. Maybe I'm 182 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 3: only willing to like stake ten dollars on this, but 183 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 3: not even one hundred. And all of a sudden, your 184 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:25,520 Speaker 3: diagnosis becomes a lot better and a lot cleaner because 185 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 3: you know exactly how much the doctor believes in what 186 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 3: he is saying. 187 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:36,079 Speaker 1: That feels useful for any time you're trying to get 188 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 1: information or any sort of diagnosis. I mean, it could 189 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:43,240 Speaker 1: be your car breaks and the mechanics is definitely be 190 00:09:43,559 --> 00:09:45,040 Speaker 1: how much would you yeah, what did you put it on? 191 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 1: I mean, there's so many different ways you can apply 192 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 1: that to daily life. 193 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 3: Absolutely absolutely, and that principle has really I mean it's 194 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:53,959 Speaker 3: something that Poker has then ingrained in me, but it 195 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 3: really has carried over into my into the way that 196 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:00,319 Speaker 3: I think about my life. It's made me a lot 197 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 3: less confident in the sense of like being overconfident. Right before, 198 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 3: I'd be like, oh no, this is definitely this, and 199 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 3: now I'm like, wait, hold on. First of all, I'll 200 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:09,080 Speaker 3: never say definitely because there's no such thing as one 201 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 3: hundred percent certain things. Then like, how how sure am 202 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,840 Speaker 3: I really? And I've started caveating things and being like, well, 203 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 3: like like seventy five percent sure that this is that 204 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 3: this is right, but let's let's look right it's It 205 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 3: actually has made me kind of add a little decision 206 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 3: loop in my head that didn't exist before, where I 207 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 3: self fact check. You know, in the magazine world you 208 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 3: have fact checkers. You're like, ah, if I'm wrong, you'll 209 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 3: find it, they'll get it. Let me. Just like sometimes 210 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 3: you put something in to a piece because you're like, oh, 211 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:42,200 Speaker 3: I'll look this up later, and then you kind of 212 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 3: forget and then they're like, where'd you get this? And 213 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 3: you're like, oh oops, you know it seemed right at 214 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 3: this time, but they catch it obviously. But when you're 215 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 3: not working with a fact checker, you got you have 216 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 3: to do it yourself. Yeah, And it's a really good 217 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 3: habit to have. It makes you, It makes you a 218 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:00,720 Speaker 3: lot better, makes you a better friend. You know, when 219 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 3: you're not like, oh yeah, I'll definitely be there, you're like, well, like, 220 00:11:03,520 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 3: I'm you know, seventy percent to show up, Like yeah. 221 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 1: If I don't, when they go, are am I an asshole? 222 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: You go, you know, I'm sixty one percent sure you're 223 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 1: an asshole. 224 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 2: That's the more honest, honest thing. 225 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:18,199 Speaker 1: I think what's important here too for people who are 226 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 1: not familiar with poker, and this this stat really surprised 227 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 1: me that you had in the biggest bluff. There was 228 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:27,839 Speaker 1: a researcher you'll know who he was, where he came from, 229 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 1: or she looked at all these poker games online and 230 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 1: they found that the best hand only one like twelve 231 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 1: percent of the time. 232 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 2: Is that right? 233 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 3: Yeah? 234 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 2: So what does that tell us about. 235 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 1: Poker and why it's different than all the other games 236 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: I could go play in a casino, and then why 237 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,960 Speaker 1: that makes it good for unique for decision making? 238 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 3: So what that tells us so every other game in 239 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 3: a casino. If you and I were to stop this 240 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 3: interview right now and go and drive to any casino 241 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 3: and you're like, Marie, I want to play blackjack or 242 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 3: whatever else. I don't gamble, So like, I actually don't 243 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 3: know what other games we can play, but I'm sure, 244 00:12:04,320 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 3: I'm sure, I'm sure we could do any of them. 245 00:12:07,280 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 3: You have to have the best hand to win, right. 246 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 3: You won't be able to be like, oh, I have 247 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 3: pluck jack and you know you cover your cards, pay 248 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 3: me and if you're convincing enough, the dealer pays you. Right, Right, 249 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 3: That's not how it works. Every single game in a casino. 250 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 3: You have to have the best of it in order 251 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 3: to get paid. 252 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, the rule up ball falls where it's going to fall. 253 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 1: There's no other discussion. 254 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 3: There's exactly the outcome is the outcome. Poker is different. 255 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 3: In poker, you can win with the worst hand and 256 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 3: you can lose with the best hand, because it's not 257 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:45,199 Speaker 3: about that. It's about the play. It's about the player. 258 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,200 Speaker 3: And it's the only game where you're playing against someone else. 259 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 3: You're not playing against the house. You're playing against other people. 260 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 3: And if I can convince you that I have a 261 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 3: better hand than you have, you might fold the winner. 262 00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 3: If I fail to convince you, you know you you 263 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 3: you might call me and be right, and I might 264 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 3: fold the winner because you know, I just don't know, right, 265 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 3: And I think that I might be beat and I 266 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:14,559 Speaker 3: do that decision calculus and I lose. And the fact 267 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:18,200 Speaker 3: that in all of these hundreds of thousands of hands online, 268 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 3: twelve percent of the time it was the best hand. 269 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 3: That's crazy, right, That tells you that over time. Now, 270 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 3: the reason that this particular study was so good is 271 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 3: because it was online and we have such a huge sample, right, 272 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:36,080 Speaker 3: because you need a big sample because in the short term, 273 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 3: do you play poke? 274 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:39,520 Speaker 2: I lech go no, maybe after this interview that who knows? 275 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,319 Speaker 3: All right, So you and I could get a deck 276 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:44,800 Speaker 3: of cards right now and play, and you might beat me, 277 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 3: even though you don't play Pokerguner's luck. Yeah, it's heads 278 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 3: up poker. There's a lot of variants. You just might 279 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 3: get hit with the deck. You might have just great 280 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 3: cards and you beat me. That doesn't mean you're a 281 00:13:57,600 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 3: better player than I am. Right, I can go right 282 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 3: now and play with Eric Sidell, who is. 283 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 2: My coach, great like one of the legends. 284 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely absolutely, so I could beat him. Doesn't mean 285 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 3: I'm a better player than he is. So any one game, 286 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 3: any one hand, anything can happen. The reason the study 287 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 3: is so powerful is it took hundreds of thousands of hands, right, 288 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:19,880 Speaker 3: we have that volume, and volume is where the variance 289 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 3: kind of evens out in the long term. And you 290 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 3: see that over the long term that more skilled players 291 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 3: walk away with all the money. And you start to 292 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 3: understand how important small edges are. Right. If you tell me, like, oh, 293 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:33,880 Speaker 3: this adds a one percent edge to you, I'm like, 294 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 3: that's huge. Oh my god, that's amazing, right, because over 295 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 3: time that one percent is going to be so incredibly important. 296 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 3: And poker teaches you that in a way that nothing 297 00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 3: else in life really does, because, as you say, we 298 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 3: write it off right, like one percent, Okay, it's one percent, 299 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 3: But then you think about the numbers and you're like, 300 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 3: oh my god, Like if you told me that some 301 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:58,520 Speaker 3: disease or some surgery, some elective procedure has a one 302 00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 3: percent complication, right, and millions of people do it, I 303 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 3: ain't doing it if I don't need it, right, right, 304 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 3: because you realize that one percent is either hundreds of 305 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 3: thousands or like depends it depends on what we're talking about. 306 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 3: It's a lot of people, right, And so when you 307 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 3: start when you start realizing that, when you start making 308 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 3: those translations, you see kind of how how important those 309 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 3: small skill edges are and you see that in poker 310 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 3: once again skill, so over the long term, your skill 311 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 3: is going to win out. When I saw that study, yeah, 312 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 3: it is a crazy statistic. To this day, I still 313 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:36,320 Speaker 3: I still don't quite believe it. 314 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 1: You and well, what this gets to speaking to our 315 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:43,720 Speaker 1: speaking to our one percent stat is poker. It's a 316 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 1: sort of dance between I guess I would say reading 317 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 1: people sort but also probabilities. 318 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 2: Yes, now, despite your. 319 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 1: PhD from Columbia, you go in this going like I'm 320 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 1: not a huge numbers. 321 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 3: Person, not a numbers person at all, but. 322 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 1: You had to learn all these different probabilities. And you 323 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: read in the book how people are terrible with probabilities, 324 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 1: like we literally didn't evolve to understand them. And so 325 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 1: why is it important to understand probabilities in daily life, 326 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 1: like examples beyond absolutely how it can help us. 327 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:21,240 Speaker 3: I mean, we make decisions all the time that involve 328 00:16:21,320 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 3: probabilistic thinking, and we make them incorrectly when we don't 329 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:29,480 Speaker 3: understand what probabilities actually mean. And even by the way, 330 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 3: even statisticians often don't understand it in real life because 331 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 3: it's very different to you know, you can be someone 332 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 3: with PhD and statistics who understands probabilities. Sure, I can 333 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:43,200 Speaker 3: explain the most complicated equations to you, and yet when 334 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 3: it comes to a decision that you personally are making 335 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:50,640 Speaker 3: right now, you just don't translate it. Because when we learn, 336 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 3: the human brain learns from experience and not from description. 337 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:57,440 Speaker 3: As a statistician, all your knowledge is from description, right, 338 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 3: It's from textbooks, it's from understanding these formulas. It's not 339 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 3: from actually viscerally experiencing it, living it in your case 340 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:11,040 Speaker 3: exactly right, unless you play poker. We'll come to that 341 00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:13,359 Speaker 3: in a second. But but normally the human brain is 342 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 3: really bad because we do learn from experience, and those 343 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 3: experiences are incorrectly weighted in the sense that we never 344 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:25,119 Speaker 3: get to experience kind of the full range, right, We 345 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 3: don't sample correctly, so to speak. So if this is 346 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 3: an example I use all the time because you know, 347 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:36,679 Speaker 3: it's it's something that I think even now now people 348 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:38,800 Speaker 3: are are like, oh, I don't I have no idea. 349 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:40,679 Speaker 3: I wasn't even born yet. But like, if you were 350 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:43,880 Speaker 3: in New York on nine to eleven, right, you're someone 351 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 3: who's probably going to overestimate the probability of terrorist attacks 352 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,919 Speaker 3: or something happening, especially if you knew someone you know 353 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 3: who was in the towers or anything like that, or 354 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:56,719 Speaker 3: if anything like that ever happened to you, you're going 355 00:17:56,800 --> 00:18:00,520 Speaker 3: to really overestimate that unless, like you person suddenly know 356 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 3: someone who died in the shower, really going to vastly 357 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:08,359 Speaker 3: underestimate the risk of falling in a shower and dying, right, 358 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 3: and yet one is much higher than the other, exactly, 359 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 3: and yet in your mind it's just completely warped because 360 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,680 Speaker 3: of the way that you experienced it, and so you're 361 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 3: going to make incorrect choices based on that. You might 362 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 3: avoid a destination, you might avoid doing something because you're like, 363 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:32,480 Speaker 3: you know what, it's too risky, like I might get 364 00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:35,280 Speaker 3: kidnapped or I might you know, a terrorist might do 365 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 3: something to me. And you might, on the flip side 366 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,200 Speaker 3: of it, not make safety precautions for your aging parents, 367 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 3: for instance, in the shower because they're like, uh, you know, 368 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,640 Speaker 3: it's totally you don't even think about it, right, And 369 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 3: it should be completely reversed, right, You should be actually 370 00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:55,359 Speaker 3: waiting the risk backwards from what you're doing and making 371 00:18:55,400 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 3: your decisions backwards. So what probabilistic things in real life 372 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:04,880 Speaker 3: translates to is these sources of choices that sometimes it's 373 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,359 Speaker 3: you know, non consequential, but other times it's life and death. 374 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:12,680 Speaker 3: And oftentimes it's also a non consequential in the sense 375 00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:14,919 Speaker 3: of life and death. But sometimes it's like an important 376 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:17,840 Speaker 3: financial choice, right where you don't make an investment because 377 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:20,919 Speaker 3: you're like, oh, like you know, it's a little too risky, 378 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 3: but you don't actually realize that, no, you should take 379 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:27,200 Speaker 3: this risk because it's going to pay out, like because 380 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:30,080 Speaker 3: the expected value is so high that this is actually 381 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 3: worth it. Or you do something else where you're like, oh, well, 382 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 3: you know, let me, let me, let me do this 383 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,480 Speaker 3: because it seems cool. You're like, no, this, you're just 384 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,359 Speaker 3: wasting money, Like this is not what you should be doing. 385 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:47,160 Speaker 3: So those choices just add up finance, health, personal life, 386 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 3: and relationships, just everything down the line. Everything revolves around 387 00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 3: how do you understand the risk reward, how do you 388 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:59,240 Speaker 3: understand the probabilities? And are you doing so accurately? And 389 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:02,160 Speaker 3: the answer is going to be no, ninety nine from 390 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 3: point nine percent of the time. 391 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 2: Yeah. The health. 392 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,919 Speaker 1: The health example I think is especially for my audience, 393 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 1: it's into health and wellness is really great I recently 394 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,959 Speaker 1: did a sub stack piece that was just looking at 395 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 1: the data on you know, there's this big trend and longevity, 396 00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,040 Speaker 1: and we all want to live longer. But when you 397 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 1: look at what actually kills people up to age fifty five, 398 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:29,119 Speaker 1: it's drug overdoses, it's you crashed your SUV because you 399 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:32,360 Speaker 1: were sending a text message. You it's all these things 400 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:35,160 Speaker 1: that are very preventable, and yet people tend to obsess. Oh, 401 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:37,199 Speaker 1: like I saw this cancer study or whatever. But if 402 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 1: you just look at the numbers, it's like, well. 403 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 3: This is what's going to kill you time exactly what's 404 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:43,119 Speaker 3: in your stack exactly? 405 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,760 Speaker 1: So thinking about that, like, okay, what did the numbers 406 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:48,360 Speaker 1: actually say about my risks and health? And then how 407 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:50,919 Speaker 1: can I use that to steer my behavior, because we 408 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,719 Speaker 1: tend to to your point, everyone probably knows someone who 409 00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:58,440 Speaker 1: got cancer distantly and died. To freak out about that. 410 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 1: Even if you're thirty in your risk of that is 411 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 1: just exceedingly well. 412 00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, and so you might be getting your full body scans, right, 413 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:07,880 Speaker 3: you might be paying however much two thousand dollars, however 414 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 3: much they cost to get the full body scan at 415 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,360 Speaker 3: age thirty, and yet there you are in your ATV 416 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 3: like going you know, it's so funny, you know, because 417 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:23,399 Speaker 3: speaking of that, I was a few years ago asked 418 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:27,400 Speaker 3: to do this activity and that involved going in ATVs 419 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,800 Speaker 3: and my sister is a doctor, and she's like, don't 420 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 3: you dare She's like, are you I was like no, no, no, no, 421 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:36,840 Speaker 3: don't worry. She's like, okay, good right, Like that, you 422 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 3: have no idea what the you are looks like and 423 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,399 Speaker 3: what the what you're doing. And people are like, oh, 424 00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,160 Speaker 3: but it's fun. I was like, well sure, but right, yes, 425 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 3: how fun is it? 426 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 2: Right? 427 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 3: And if you're someone who's obsessing over your full body 428 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,120 Speaker 3: scan and then you get in one. 429 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:54,200 Speaker 1: And start drive to the full body stam place while 430 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,360 Speaker 1: you're sending text messages and messing with your exactly car 431 00:21:57,480 --> 00:21:59,879 Speaker 1: screen exactly, that's going to kill your way before this. 432 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely. And people will engage in those sorts of 433 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,720 Speaker 3: risky behaviors all the time and not even think twice 434 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,479 Speaker 3: about it. And yet they're like, oh, but I'm you know, 435 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:15,119 Speaker 3: I don't smoke. Oh, but I gave up drinking, Like 436 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:16,280 Speaker 3: good for you. 437 00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 1: Well, this also gets to this idea that you have 438 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 1: in the book when good things happen to us. We say, oh, 439 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:26,440 Speaker 1: I'm very skilled at this, this was all my doing. 440 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:27,000 Speaker 2: Look at me. 441 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:30,680 Speaker 1: Yeah when bad things happen, Yeah, cards didn't fall my 442 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:31,200 Speaker 1: way today. 443 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:32,160 Speaker 2: This is totally luck. 444 00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 1: So talk to us about that, and how's that shapes 445 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:35,120 Speaker 1: our decisions too. 446 00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 3: There's an incredible study that was done by Ellen Langer 447 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:44,640 Speaker 3: at Harvard. The title of the paper, I might get 448 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 3: it backwards, but it's something like heads I win, tails 449 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 3: its chance. It might be tails, I win heads its chance, 450 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 3: but that's the title of the paper. And it's about 451 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 3: this amazing study about the illusion of control, which was 452 00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,399 Speaker 3: ended up being the center of my dissertation, the illusion 453 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 3: of control. And we we actually, as a side note, 454 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:06,720 Speaker 3: were able to recreate alan Ninger study perfectly. Like the 455 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,879 Speaker 3: results stiff that's always good, still still hold up completely. 456 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:14,639 Speaker 3: So what you do. And she is in the psychology 457 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 3: department at Harvard University at the time, was at Harvard University, 458 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 3: worked with Harvard students. This is important because these are 459 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,879 Speaker 3: kids who are supposed to be smart. So that's why 460 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,639 Speaker 3: that's why I'm stressing that. It's that it's Harvard, like 461 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 3: we're supposed to be keyword. So she had them participate 462 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,159 Speaker 3: in a coin flipping study. Now before before we do this, like, 463 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 3: let me just set our parameters. Michael is coin flipping skiller. Chance. 464 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 1: That would be chance unless I get the heads and 465 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:46,199 Speaker 1: I called it heads and that was my my my 466 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:47,280 Speaker 1: though doing the right motion. 467 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:50,160 Speaker 3: So so so we we can we can agree right 468 00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 3: that coin flip is a coin flip. It's a chance. 469 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,680 Speaker 3: So someone would flip a coin and you had to 470 00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:58,320 Speaker 3: guess whether it was going to be heads or tails, 471 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 3: and then the person would tell you whether you were 472 00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 3: right or whether you were wrong. Now, the study was rigged, 473 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 3: as a lot of psych studies are, in the sense 474 00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 3: that people were either told they were right a lot 475 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:13,879 Speaker 3: early on, or they were wrong a lot early on, 476 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:16,920 Speaker 3: or it was pretty evenly distributed. The number was always 477 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 3: the same right, so you were always right and wrong 478 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 3: the same number of times. They just kind of changed 479 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 3: where the where the distribution. 480 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 4: So fifty percent of the time, I wasn't fifty to fifty, 481 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:29,480 Speaker 4: but yeah, they but they would say basically fifty to fifty. 482 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 3: Yeah. 483 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:31,440 Speaker 1: Some of them them would say, hey, you were right, 484 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,000 Speaker 1: you were right, you were right, you were right, and 485 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,480 Speaker 1: then others wrong wrong, wrong, hey wrong again. 486 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 3: Yep, exactly exactly, and so like right, wrong, wrong, right? 487 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 3: You know, they how you think probability is going to look? Yeah, 488 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:46,440 Speaker 3: And they found something really really interesting, which was that 489 00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:50,679 Speaker 3: the students, the Harvard students who were told that they 490 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:55,919 Speaker 3: were right early on frequently would then response. So then 491 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:57,439 Speaker 3: there was a questionnaire that you did at the end, 492 00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:01,920 Speaker 3: and there were questions like I am good at predicting 493 00:25:02,040 --> 00:25:05,200 Speaker 3: outcomes of coin tosses. They would say, yes, I am. 494 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:10,760 Speaker 3: I would improve with practice, Yes I would if given 495 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 3: more time and you know, quiet to learn this, I 496 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:19,240 Speaker 3: would be even more exceptional. Yes, absolutely, So they answered 497 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 3: this questionnaire as if it was a skill rather than 498 00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 3: just absolute chance. And all it took was saying, oh, 499 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,800 Speaker 3: you're right at the beginning, and all of a sudden 500 00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:34,680 Speaker 3: they exhibited what's known as the illusion of control, thinking 501 00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 3: you're in control of something when you're actually not. And 502 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,680 Speaker 3: that's why the hence the title of the paper. Right, 503 00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:49,040 Speaker 3: and it's a finding that has been recreated in different guises. 504 00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:51,639 Speaker 3: And we just we just coin toss, like we just 505 00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:56,359 Speaker 3: did literally a coin toss with Columbia students and same 506 00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 3: exact thing. 507 00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:01,360 Speaker 4: Also a smart group, also a smart group, and you 508 00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:05,560 Speaker 4: just realize how prone we are to taking credit for 509 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:09,480 Speaker 4: things that really aren't due to us or due to 510 00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:10,280 Speaker 4: anything we did. 511 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,320 Speaker 3: We just got lucky, but we like to appropriate luck 512 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 3: when it's on our side. And it's such an easy 513 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,160 Speaker 3: and such a human thing to do. 514 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 2: What's the takeaway for people? How to use them life? 515 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:23,960 Speaker 3: So the takeaway is that you have to understand how 516 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,960 Speaker 3: prone you are to this, and you have to get 517 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:31,440 Speaker 3: used to acknowledging just how much of a role chance 518 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:35,600 Speaker 3: plays in your life, and to asking yourself. So one 519 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,800 Speaker 3: of the lessons I learned early on in poker was 520 00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 3: it's actually very good for you if you don't do 521 00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:42,119 Speaker 3: well at the beginning, right, because it forces you to 522 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 3: get better. And poker players who get very lucky early on, 523 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 3: who end up making a lot of money, they often 524 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:51,719 Speaker 3: go broke right because they never learn that self calibration process. 525 00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:55,200 Speaker 3: They just think they're geniuses, right, that they're naturally incredibly gifted. 526 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:55,879 Speaker 2: This reminds me. 527 00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:57,440 Speaker 1: So there was a study I think it was on 528 00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:02,960 Speaker 1: slot machine players found that what most correlated to a 529 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:07,000 Speaker 1: slot machine gambler becoming a problem gambler was getting a 530 00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:08,240 Speaker 1: jackpot very early. 531 00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 2: So that was like the. 532 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 1: One thing that could you know, a third time place slot. 533 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,159 Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, i won one hundred thousand dollars. 534 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,240 Speaker 2: I'm good at this. I got the right hand. 535 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, no, no, that's exactly right. And so what 536 00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,840 Speaker 3: this teaches us is that we want to get into 537 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:27,879 Speaker 3: a habit of actually using that corrective process and trying 538 00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,960 Speaker 3: to think through our decision making when things are going well. 539 00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:36,440 Speaker 3: And that's much easier said than done, right to be like, wait, okay, 540 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:40,400 Speaker 3: you know, let's pause for a second. This completely worked out. 541 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:44,399 Speaker 3: This was wonderful. Was it because I'm smart and I 542 00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 3: thought about this the right way or did the stars 543 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,840 Speaker 3: just align in a way that it worked out for me? 544 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:55,159 Speaker 3: Because poker is the best tool that I have found 545 00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:58,160 Speaker 3: to teach you to separate the process from the outcome 546 00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:02,159 Speaker 3: and to make you realize that the one is not 547 00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,640 Speaker 3: equal to the other. Right, you can have a great outcome. 548 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:10,400 Speaker 3: You guessed heads correctly, Yeah, but that doesn't mean that 549 00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,560 Speaker 3: you had a good process. Like, there's no process right 550 00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:15,000 Speaker 3: in guessing heads or tails unless you know that it's 551 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,639 Speaker 3: an unfair coin, unless you have some sort of information. 552 00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 3: But in the absence of that, there's there's no process there. 553 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 3: So you know that it's all outcome, but our brains 554 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 3: just equate the two. So it's it's very it's a 555 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,240 Speaker 3: very useful exercise to try to figure out, you know, 556 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:33,800 Speaker 3: how do I separate? 557 00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 2: Is this outcome blindness? Is that the term? Or is 558 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:37,440 Speaker 2: that a totally different thing? 559 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 3: That is, it's a similar thing, But outcome blindness is 560 00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:48,600 Speaker 3: when you are making the decision, you just need to 561 00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 3: not even think about the outcome, right, Okay? And why 562 00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:57,920 Speaker 3: is that? Because then you make the best decision possible. Right. 563 00:28:58,040 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 3: You just have to try to figure out what do 564 00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:03,240 Speaker 3: I know? Right? My goal is to make the best 565 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,760 Speaker 3: decision I can with the information that I have, and 566 00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:09,600 Speaker 3: the outcome is not up to me, right, the outcome 567 00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 3: is out of my hands. How do I control what 568 00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,000 Speaker 3: I can? Right? And how do I let go of 569 00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 3: what I can't control? I control the process, I don't 570 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:20,120 Speaker 3: control the outcome. And so if you're too focused on 571 00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,880 Speaker 3: the outcome, then that might actually make you make the 572 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:28,800 Speaker 3: wrong decision because you become too risk averse or too 573 00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:32,400 Speaker 3: risk seeking or whatever it is. You end up not 574 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 3: having a fully properly calibrated process right because you're you're 575 00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 3: too busy maybe trying to avoid a bad outcome right, 576 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:46,960 Speaker 3: or you're too busy trying to ensure that you get 577 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 3: like some minimally satisfying outcome. Right, you start you start 578 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,640 Speaker 3: thinking of that a little bit too much, and it 579 00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:59,479 Speaker 3: starts feeding back into your decision process. Now I say that, 580 00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:03,080 Speaker 3: but there always exceptions, right in the sense that not 581 00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:07,960 Speaker 3: life isn't a poker game. Right, Maybe there's an incredible, 582 00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:10,560 Speaker 3: you know, gamble that you really should take because it's 583 00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:14,600 Speaker 3: really positive expected value. But if you lose, you can't 584 00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:18,239 Speaker 3: pay your rent, Right, you shouldn't take that, right, Like 585 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:22,000 Speaker 3: there you should you should realize that, you know, abstractly, sure, 586 00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:27,000 Speaker 3: but really all of these things that decision scientists call 587 00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 3: decision biases, they're not biases. They're preventing me from you know, 588 00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 3: losing my livelihood, losing my job, losing whatever it is. 589 00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:38,400 Speaker 3: So you always so you do need to caveat all 590 00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:40,760 Speaker 3: of these things to say, you know, there's there's theory, 591 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,880 Speaker 3: there's practice, and sometimes you do have to think of 592 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 3: the outcome. Sometimes you do have to kind of play 593 00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,200 Speaker 3: through that because one of the things that you also 594 00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:51,240 Speaker 3: learn in poker is that you need to avoid the 595 00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:53,880 Speaker 3: risk of ruin. Right, You always have to make sure 596 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,440 Speaker 3: that you can play again, because anything can happen in 597 00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:00,320 Speaker 3: one hand, right, anything can happen in one game, and 598 00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:04,160 Speaker 3: so you never ever ever risk it all if you're smart. 599 00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,640 Speaker 3: That's why some people go broke, because they're not smart. 600 00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,840 Speaker 3: When it comes to that, you always have to understand, 601 00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:13,560 Speaker 3: how do I ensure that I can play the long game? 602 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:15,600 Speaker 3: How do I ensure that I'm in this for the 603 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:19,120 Speaker 3: long term? How do I ensure that I survive? And 604 00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:21,880 Speaker 3: that's I think true of all great decision makers in 605 00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:22,920 Speaker 3: any walk of life. 606 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, hew finances, whatever. 607 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:29,680 Speaker 3: Careeratly what exactly there's a full equation there where how 608 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 3: do I make decisions that make it so that I 609 00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:36,400 Speaker 3: can make these decisions for the long term and that 610 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:39,560 Speaker 3: I'm not risking ruin right, that I'm not risking going 611 00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:43,959 Speaker 3: to zero now. And like you said, that's not just financial, 612 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,000 Speaker 3: that is all all of these things. It's the suite 613 00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:50,080 Speaker 3: that makes up your life. And you constantly have to 614 00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,000 Speaker 3: think about that as you kind of move those different 615 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,480 Speaker 3: lovers in your head and try to try to calibrate 616 00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:57,560 Speaker 3: where you want to be, what you want to be doing. 617 00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,160 Speaker 1: We're going to take a break and the Maria is 618 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 1: going to explain why paying attention is not only the 619 00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:04,560 Speaker 1: hack for poker, but also how to live a better life. 620 00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,720 Speaker 1: So the book is the biggest bluff. Subtitle How I 621 00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:18,920 Speaker 1: Learned to Pay Attention, Master myself and win attention comes first. 622 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:20,080 Speaker 1: Why did it come first? 623 00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:24,960 Speaker 3: So for a few reasons. First, I mean the first 624 00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,120 Speaker 3: thing that Eric Saidell taught me when I started playing poker, 625 00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 3: when I was like, what's the one thing you know, 626 00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,520 Speaker 3: what's the dumbest question you can ask, what's the one 627 00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:33,480 Speaker 3: thing I need to learn? 628 00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:34,880 Speaker 2: Tell me one thing I'm going. 629 00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:37,760 Speaker 3: To win exactly. But the one thing he told me 630 00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:39,720 Speaker 3: was absolutely brilliant. He just said, pay attention. 631 00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:41,000 Speaker 2: It's like very sien. 632 00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:44,920 Speaker 3: It is it is, He's very sid but it's very true. 633 00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:49,560 Speaker 3: And it's something that I have been writing about, thinking 634 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,360 Speaker 3: about for basically, you know, my entire career. My first 635 00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 3: ever book, Mastermind, is all about presence. It's all about mindfulness. 636 00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 3: And this was before mindfulness was a catch term. I 637 00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:05,720 Speaker 3: used Sherlock Holmes as an example of mindful thinking, of 638 00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:12,120 Speaker 3: learning to you know, be present, be paying attention in 639 00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:16,640 Speaker 3: the real sense of paying attention, both seeing and observing. 640 00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:22,200 Speaker 3: And so it's something that I've always known and tried 641 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 3: to practice as absolutely fundamental to everything else. If you 642 00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:30,440 Speaker 3: can't pay attention, what are you even doing? Right in 643 00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:35,120 Speaker 3: a sense that that's what you pay attention to is 644 00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:37,800 Speaker 3: who you are, It's what you are, it's what populates 645 00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:39,920 Speaker 3: your brain. It's the things that you end up knowing, 646 00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 3: it's the things you end up retaining remembering, it's your experiences, 647 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:48,040 Speaker 3: it's your life. And it's so easy to not pay attention, 648 00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,680 Speaker 3: and it's so easy to hijack our brains and the 649 00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:55,160 Speaker 3: modern world. And you know, I've written about this ad nauseum. 650 00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,840 Speaker 3: You everyone has who thinks about it. The modern world 651 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:03,960 Speaker 3: is just it's catnip for our brain wanted to instruct 652 00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:08,160 Speaker 3: exactly exactly, and the downstream effects of that are so bad. 653 00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:12,480 Speaker 3: And so, you know, I think that it's just you 654 00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,479 Speaker 3: can't master yourself. You can't win if you don't first 655 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,160 Speaker 3: learn how to pay attention. So that that has to 656 00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:21,960 Speaker 3: come first, and it is very zen because you do 657 00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:25,160 Speaker 3: have to learn to just really really be in the 658 00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:31,160 Speaker 3: moment and to have your brain just be engaged with 659 00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:34,080 Speaker 3: what you're doing, because otherwise, you know, if you're trying 660 00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,920 Speaker 3: to do multiple things. Britt about this too, it doesn't. 661 00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,839 Speaker 3: That's there's no such thing our brain that we can't multitask. 662 00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:43,440 Speaker 3: What we're doing is rapidly just task switching, and that 663 00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:46,800 Speaker 3: exhausts us. That means we're not fully paying attention to anything, 664 00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,000 Speaker 3: and that just makes us worse at everything. It's tough, 665 00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,680 Speaker 3: you know, But it's a lesson that you know, I 666 00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,120 Speaker 3: talk about, I give talks on, I write about, I've 667 00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,920 Speaker 3: written books about, and yet you find I find myself 668 00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:01,120 Speaker 3: being like, you know, let me just check my phone. 669 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,719 Speaker 3: It's still it's very hard. It's something that you constantly 670 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:08,200 Speaker 3: have to relearn and retrain yourself over and over. 671 00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:11,520 Speaker 1: Does the poker table force that for you because you're 672 00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:12,760 Speaker 1: not on your phone your life? 673 00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:13,520 Speaker 2: Or is it you. 674 00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:18,000 Speaker 3: Shouldn't be on your right you know? I actually so, 675 00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:20,759 Speaker 3: I have a love hate relationship with being on televised 676 00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:24,080 Speaker 3: stream tables. The one hand, I hate it because you're 677 00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:26,560 Speaker 3: giving away a lot of information because people see your cards. 678 00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,200 Speaker 3: On the other hand, I love it because you're not 679 00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,440 Speaker 3: allowed to have your phones or headphones, and so it 680 00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:36,080 Speaker 3: forces you to be fully present and so you end 681 00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,560 Speaker 3: up really paying attention to all of the nuances, everything 682 00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:41,440 Speaker 3: that's going on, which is what you should be doing 683 00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:45,880 Speaker 3: all the time, and yet it's so easy when you're sitting. 684 00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:48,399 Speaker 3: You know, I play tournaments, not cash games. So it's 685 00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,759 Speaker 3: not like I can get up and walk away for 686 00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:52,919 Speaker 3: an hour to take a break. I mean I can, 687 00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:56,920 Speaker 3: but I'm gonna lose. I'm gonna lose in the meantime 688 00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:58,920 Speaker 3: because it's not like I can be like, hey, guys, 689 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,040 Speaker 3: you know, just continue on without me, don't you know, 690 00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:03,480 Speaker 3: don't blind me up. Doesn't work that way. In a tournament, 691 00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:06,239 Speaker 3: you have to play. And so when you're when you 692 00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:10,320 Speaker 3: have these insanely long days, you get tired, and there's 693 00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:12,520 Speaker 3: an urge to be like, oh, you know, let me 694 00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,799 Speaker 3: check my email, let me let me do this, let 695 00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:19,160 Speaker 3: me see what's going on, you know on Instagram, let 696 00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:23,680 Speaker 3: me like my friend's story, oh this, And you constantly 697 00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:26,520 Speaker 3: have to say wait, no, like put away your phone, 698 00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,600 Speaker 3: pay attention to what's going on at the table. And 699 00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:32,600 Speaker 3: it's true even when you're not in hand, because that 700 00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:37,280 Speaker 3: is actually prime time to gather information that other people 701 00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:39,600 Speaker 3: are missing. Because you don't have to focus on your 702 00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:41,319 Speaker 3: own cards, you don't have to think about how am 703 00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:43,560 Speaker 3: I going to play this? You can watch other people 704 00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,760 Speaker 3: exactly see what are they doing? How are they acting? 705 00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:49,440 Speaker 3: You know? How is all of this drama at the 706 00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:52,799 Speaker 3: table playing out? And it's you miss it if you're 707 00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:55,680 Speaker 3: on your phone, and yet you will. It's so funny. 708 00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:59,000 Speaker 3: There's a picture that was taken I think on day 709 00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,239 Speaker 3: one of the World Series here, and the poker media 710 00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:05,120 Speaker 3: keep using that picture over and over of me. And 711 00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:07,720 Speaker 3: I'm sitting there and my phone is in my hands, 712 00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:13,080 Speaker 3: and I'm like, oh no, this is a picture that 713 00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:15,360 Speaker 3: is being you know, every update about me. It's me. 714 00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,200 Speaker 3: I'm not looking at my phone, but I'm holding it 715 00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:21,480 Speaker 3: in one of my hands because I was probably just 716 00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:25,080 Speaker 3: looking at it, yeah, you know, or just about to 717 00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:28,400 Speaker 3: look at it. And it's it's so funny because and 718 00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,400 Speaker 3: I even on my substack, I even posted that picture 719 00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,440 Speaker 3: and I was like, this is funny. I'm not supposed 720 00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:37,680 Speaker 3: to be. I acknowledge it, I accept it, and I 721 00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:41,000 Speaker 3: did bad, but it's it's hard to not do bad. 722 00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:44,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, totally, So I have I have a question. 723 00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:46,560 Speaker 1: We kind of talked about how poker is this balance 724 00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:50,359 Speaker 1: of math but also reading people. We had a mutual friend, 725 00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,839 Speaker 1: Brian Koppleman. He was on a couple of months ago 726 00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:57,360 Speaker 1: and in Rounders, he has this famous tell with Teddy. 727 00:37:58,239 --> 00:37:59,160 Speaker 2: With the Oreos. 728 00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:04,600 Speaker 1: Because of your background in psychology PhD, Columbia, how are 729 00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:07,560 Speaker 1: you at reading people and spotting tells? Did that give 730 00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:08,359 Speaker 1: you an adge or now? 731 00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:13,000 Speaker 3: So multi layered question. First of all, there usually is 732 00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:15,239 Speaker 3: not an Oreo hotel. It's great for the movie. 733 00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:18,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's amazing, especially at your level. 734 00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,360 Speaker 3: But yeah, and the better the better you get, the 735 00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:25,400 Speaker 3: higher stakes you play, the less that happens. Yeah. The 736 00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:29,520 Speaker 3: thing that I know from psychology, I know two things. One, 737 00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:33,480 Speaker 3: humans are very very bad at spotting deception about fifty 738 00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:37,719 Speaker 3: to fifty coin flip? Yeap about a coin flip. We 739 00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:40,560 Speaker 3: are also very bad at knowing when we're right at 740 00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:44,600 Speaker 3: spotting deceptions. So also we feel just as strongly when 741 00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:47,480 Speaker 3: we're right as when we're wrong. Again about fifty to fifty. 742 00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:49,480 Speaker 3: I know that to be the case. And I've written 743 00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:51,359 Speaker 3: a book about con artists and have spent a lot 744 00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:54,040 Speaker 3: of time with people who deceive at the highest levels 745 00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,080 Speaker 3: and have learned that man like, if someone's good at this, 746 00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:01,239 Speaker 3: you just don't stand a chance. And kind this absolutely 747 00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:04,920 Speaker 3: holy shit moment for me was when I was researching 748 00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:09,640 Speaker 3: the book. I ended up interviewing a woman who was 749 00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:15,240 Speaker 3: one of the subjects of Paul Ekman's study of super 750 00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:21,040 Speaker 3: basically light detector humans. People. Yes, people, There are a 751 00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:26,120 Speaker 3: handful of human beings who are just absolutely ludicrously good 752 00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:29,839 Speaker 3: at spotting, whether it's micro expressions or whatever it is. 753 00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:31,920 Speaker 3: But who can spawn when people are wrong? And she 754 00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:36,279 Speaker 3: was good enough that she was a consultant for you know, FBI, police, etc. 755 00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:42,200 Speaker 3: And she told me that when she's brought in and 756 00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:47,160 Speaker 3: it's you know, a psychopath or somebody you know who's 757 00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:51,600 Speaker 3: there's a certain type of criminal, and it terrifies her 758 00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:54,880 Speaker 3: because she has no idea, she doesn't know if they're long, 759 00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,800 Speaker 3: or she can't read them at all. And if someone 760 00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:01,000 Speaker 3: like that can't, then I mean, I'm not saying that 761 00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:04,000 Speaker 3: poker players are psychopaths, but they are people who are 762 00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:06,080 Speaker 3: used to hiding kind of there. 763 00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:07,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, they've trained it. 764 00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:12,040 Speaker 3: They've trained it, and so in that particular context, you know, 765 00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:14,160 Speaker 3: it's very difficult. So I want to I want to 766 00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:18,600 Speaker 3: caveat that caveat what I'm about to say. With that 767 00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:22,560 Speaker 3: that said, there are certainly things that you can pay 768 00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,279 Speaker 3: attention to, and I do think that kind of my 769 00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:29,480 Speaker 3: training and my background can help me. One of the 770 00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:32,680 Speaker 3: physical things is so there's work that I that I 771 00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:35,480 Speaker 3: wrote about in the Biggest Bluff that was actually on 772 00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:41,880 Speaker 3: Poker Tells, and it basically showed that people pay attention 773 00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:45,239 Speaker 3: to the wrong things. That they showed footage of the 774 00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:49,799 Speaker 3: main event, and they showed either unedited footage where you know, 775 00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:53,480 Speaker 3: you just see everything except for the cards, footage just 776 00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:55,439 Speaker 3: of you know, shoulders up so you could just see 777 00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:58,880 Speaker 3: the kind of the faces, or just the hands so 778 00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:02,839 Speaker 3: like below your shoulders down. And they found that people 779 00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:06,040 Speaker 3: who saw the ununited footage or were fifty to fifty 780 00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:08,839 Speaker 3: people who just saw faces were actually worse. So they 781 00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:13,200 Speaker 3: they performed worse, and people who just saw the hands 782 00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:14,719 Speaker 3: were the people who performed the best. 783 00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:15,560 Speaker 2: What do you think that is? 784 00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:17,960 Speaker 3: So it turns out that there's a lot more information 785 00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,279 Speaker 3: in the hands than there is in other parts of 786 00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:23,000 Speaker 3: the body for a few reasons. One, you're you've heard 787 00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:25,239 Speaker 3: the term poker face, right. Have you ever heard the 788 00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:27,160 Speaker 3: term poker hands? I have not either, have I It 789 00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:31,680 Speaker 3: doesn't exist. So poker face, everyone knows right, control your face. 790 00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:34,400 Speaker 3: I sit at the table. I know I'm not supposed 791 00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,200 Speaker 3: to give anything off in my face. And that's why 792 00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:39,200 Speaker 3: when people wear sunglasses, I'm like, dude, you're hiding the 793 00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:42,800 Speaker 3: wrong thing, right, it doesn't you're actually hurting yourself because 794 00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:44,680 Speaker 3: you see a lot less with sunglasses on. 795 00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:48,640 Speaker 1: Your pass if. The sunglasses, the hoodies, the hats, they 796 00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:49,320 Speaker 1: hurt you. 797 00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:53,279 Speaker 3: Because you're you're not seeing stuff and your peripheral vision 798 00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:57,200 Speaker 3: is just shot. You're missing all of this information and 799 00:41:57,480 --> 00:42:00,200 Speaker 3: you're not hiding anything because your face doesn't really give 800 00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:03,480 Speaker 3: anything off. But the hands were not as used to 801 00:42:03,560 --> 00:42:07,959 Speaker 3: consciously controlling. You're not thinking about it, right you People 802 00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:09,200 Speaker 3: are like, so, oh, I don't know what to do 803 00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:13,239 Speaker 3: with my hands. Yeah, yeah, exactly, but it But it 804 00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:16,600 Speaker 3: turns out that we do convey a lot of information 805 00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:19,560 Speaker 3: with how we bet, how we move, like all of 806 00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:22,600 Speaker 3: that stuff. So people who have zero training can tell. 807 00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:25,040 Speaker 3: And they had to say, like this, does this person 808 00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:26,600 Speaker 3: have a strong hand or not? Like that's it. That 809 00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:28,959 Speaker 3: was the question wasn't like are they bluffing. They didn't 810 00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:31,760 Speaker 3: have to have any poker knowledge, just is this person 811 00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:34,800 Speaker 3: strong or weak? And it turns out that the hands 812 00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:37,279 Speaker 3: did have a lot of information, and there are other 813 00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,759 Speaker 3: things like it's easier to control your face than your 814 00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:42,200 Speaker 3: pulse for instance, and the hands you can you know, 815 00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:44,399 Speaker 3: you can see pulse. So people, you know, people who 816 00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:48,080 Speaker 3: cover up their necks, that is actually something because if 817 00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:52,239 Speaker 3: you're especially if you're a newer player. Yeah, but but 818 00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:55,600 Speaker 3: once again, that tells you something. But what does it 819 00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,000 Speaker 3: tell you? And this is what the problem is with 820 00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:01,960 Speaker 3: light detector tests see exact same thing, which is why 821 00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:05,000 Speaker 3: lie detectors are so incredibly inaccurate. It can tell when 822 00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:08,239 Speaker 3: you're uncomfortable, right when, when something's wrong? But why is 823 00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:12,040 Speaker 3: it because you're lying? Is it because you're telling the 824 00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:14,120 Speaker 3: truth but you're thinking about something else that's making you 825 00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:17,480 Speaker 3: really nervous? Is it because you're stressed that your kid 826 00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:21,000 Speaker 3: is running a fever? And like the more you sit here, 827 00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:24,920 Speaker 3: like the more stressed you're becoming. Why? Right, what is 828 00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:28,120 Speaker 3: the reason? And unless you have a baseline of behavior, 829 00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:32,000 Speaker 3: it's really really difficult to figure that out. So if 830 00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:34,480 Speaker 3: I'm sitting across from you and I see that you 831 00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:38,200 Speaker 3: know your your arteries are pumping and that you know 832 00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:41,040 Speaker 3: your your heart's beaten fast, is it because you're bluffing? 833 00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:43,160 Speaker 3: Or is it because you have a really strong hand? 834 00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:47,160 Speaker 3: And unless I see the outcome of that situation. I 835 00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,480 Speaker 3: don't know. But even if I see the outcome, it's 836 00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:54,040 Speaker 3: just one just one point, right, Maybe next time you're 837 00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:56,759 Speaker 3: just as you know your your heart is beating just 838 00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,560 Speaker 3: as fast, and it's for the opposite reason. And until 839 00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:02,279 Speaker 3: I have enough of a sample size, and until I 840 00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:07,560 Speaker 3: know what your baseline behavior is, using that would be irresponsible. 841 00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:10,480 Speaker 3: Right now, if I have no idea and like I 842 00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:13,560 Speaker 3: just need something to help me make my decision, Do 843 00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:16,560 Speaker 3: I want to use that as like an additional input? Sure? 844 00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:19,920 Speaker 3: But do I want to rely on that? Probably not. 845 00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:23,719 Speaker 3: And the things that I think that I'm better at, 846 00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:26,399 Speaker 3: which are the real tells, are how do you get 847 00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:30,240 Speaker 3: inside someone's head? Right? So, how do I pay attention 848 00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:33,800 Speaker 3: to the dynamics at the table to understand how someone 849 00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:37,279 Speaker 3: is thinking at any given moment. Maybe you're someone who 850 00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:40,759 Speaker 3: you lose a huge hand and it makes you, you know, 851 00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,239 Speaker 3: it puts it's going to put you on tilt? Does 852 00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:46,400 Speaker 3: the poker term for emotions getting into your decisions? But 853 00:44:46,440 --> 00:44:48,600 Speaker 3: how is it going to make you till maybe you 854 00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,920 Speaker 3: become too risk averse? Right because you don't want to 855 00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:53,920 Speaker 3: lose any more chips. You want to protect what you have. 856 00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:56,400 Speaker 3: But maybe you're one of those people who becomes too 857 00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:59,959 Speaker 3: risk seeking after because you want to get those chips back, 858 00:45:00,239 --> 00:45:03,120 Speaker 3: and you're much more likely to bluff. Maybe there's a 859 00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:07,520 Speaker 3: person who has raised you three times in a row, 860 00:45:07,560 --> 00:45:09,839 Speaker 3: and I can see you getting angry, so I know 861 00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:11,600 Speaker 3: that you know when you reraise them, you might not 862 00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:13,799 Speaker 3: have as strong a hand as you normally would because 863 00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:15,640 Speaker 3: you're just putting your foot down. And then I can 864 00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:19,359 Speaker 3: take advantage of that situation. So noticing things like that, 865 00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:24,720 Speaker 3: I think that is much more psychologically helpful than Oh, 866 00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:28,760 Speaker 3: you know, his left nostril twitched when he made that bet. 867 00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:31,880 Speaker 3: I think that means that you know he's not telling 868 00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:32,320 Speaker 3: the truth. 869 00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:34,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, we're going to take a break, and then Maria 870 00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:37,120 Speaker 1: is going to tell us an insane story about tilt 871 00:45:37,320 --> 00:45:47,200 Speaker 1: that she experienced at this year's World Series. So tilt 872 00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:50,480 Speaker 1: is when you let your emotions get the best of you. Generally, 873 00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:51,440 Speaker 1: is it always negative? 874 00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:54,440 Speaker 3: No, tilt can be anything. So you can go on 875 00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:56,799 Speaker 3: tilt because you've won a huge hand. So let me 876 00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:59,280 Speaker 3: give you an example. Actually that happened to me earlier 877 00:45:59,400 --> 00:46:03,440 Speaker 3: this week. So I wasn't the one who tilted because 878 00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:07,319 Speaker 3: I don't tilt. Michael that's not true. That's not true. 879 00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,319 Speaker 3: Every single person tilts, and the moment you say I 880 00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:13,920 Speaker 3: don't tilt is you're in trouble. So this was the 881 00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:18,840 Speaker 3: five thousand dollars buy in six handed tournament, very big event, 882 00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:23,319 Speaker 3: like something something that people really care about World Series. Yeah, 883 00:46:23,360 --> 00:46:26,680 Speaker 3: so this is one of the side events. It was. 884 00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:31,759 Speaker 3: It was at the Paris Hotel, so I got into 885 00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:35,080 Speaker 3: a hand. It was a multi way pot, so more 886 00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:38,840 Speaker 3: than one person in the hand with a recreational player. 887 00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:41,319 Speaker 3: I know he's a recreational player because I talked to 888 00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:43,359 Speaker 3: people and I try to find out kind of what 889 00:46:43,400 --> 00:46:46,000 Speaker 3: they do and where they're from, because that helps me. 890 00:46:47,800 --> 00:46:50,080 Speaker 2: I'm a janitor and I'm an accountant. 891 00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:52,839 Speaker 3: You're that's well, you know, first of all, like I'm 892 00:46:52,840 --> 00:46:55,560 Speaker 3: a journalist, so to me, it's interesting and I've actually 893 00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:57,600 Speaker 3: found a lot of stories and a lot of people 894 00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:01,160 Speaker 3: like at the poker table, so like I'm genuinely trusted. However, 895 00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:04,000 Speaker 3: it also gives me good information, right, I know, you know, 896 00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:06,319 Speaker 3: if this is like a big deal for you, or 897 00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:08,120 Speaker 3: if this is if you know, if this is like 898 00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:11,359 Speaker 3: no big deal till I know exactly, it really helps 899 00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:13,520 Speaker 3: me figure out how you're playing. So this guy is 900 00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:19,480 Speaker 3: an amateur player who's only here for basically this one event. 901 00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:22,960 Speaker 3: You know it's a it's a big deal. And we 902 00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:25,680 Speaker 3: get into a big hand three ways, and I end 903 00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:28,359 Speaker 3: up on the turn, so the turn for people who 904 00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:31,480 Speaker 3: don't play pokers. When four cards are out in hold them. 905 00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:34,640 Speaker 3: That means there's one card still to come. And on 906 00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:36,440 Speaker 3: the turn I have the nuts, which means I have 907 00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:41,120 Speaker 3: the absolute best hand possible. No one can beat me. However, 908 00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:43,560 Speaker 3: it's a very wet board, which means there are lots 909 00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:47,000 Speaker 3: of draws available, and so you know the river card 910 00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:49,520 Speaker 3: could change that, and so I end up going all 911 00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:52,080 Speaker 3: in on the turn after a lot of betting, and 912 00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:57,040 Speaker 3: he ends up snapcalling obviously with a worse hand, and 913 00:47:57,239 --> 00:48:00,200 Speaker 3: another person calls, so we're all in three ways. This 914 00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:04,200 Speaker 3: is people insanely huge pot. I always say the movie exactly, 915 00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:06,080 Speaker 3: I obviously have the nuts, I have the best hand, 916 00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:10,560 Speaker 3: and both of them have draws. He's just so so excited, 917 00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:14,560 Speaker 3: and on the river it hits his draw and he 918 00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:17,120 Speaker 3: ends up knocking me and the other player out because 919 00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:20,120 Speaker 3: he has a slightly out chipped and you should see 920 00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:22,560 Speaker 3: like he whoops, he gets out of his chair, like 921 00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:26,080 Speaker 3: his chair, like it's just insane, you know. I'm like, okay, 922 00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:28,759 Speaker 3: I'm gonna go redbuy like that. That was unfortunate. Yeah, 923 00:48:28,800 --> 00:48:31,239 Speaker 3: but he is so excited and I look him like 924 00:48:31,280 --> 00:48:33,520 Speaker 3: that guy even though he's now chip leading the tournament. 925 00:48:33,560 --> 00:48:35,160 Speaker 3: Because this was early on. This was like one of 926 00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:37,440 Speaker 3: the first levels and now he has three starting stacks, 927 00:48:37,760 --> 00:48:39,919 Speaker 3: so that's a lot of chips. I was like, he's 928 00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:42,880 Speaker 3: going to bust in the next two levels, and he did. Really, 929 00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:45,080 Speaker 3: it was like, because Winter's tilt is a real thing 930 00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:48,120 Speaker 3: where some people when you went, I was like, if 931 00:48:48,200 --> 00:48:50,840 Speaker 3: that's his reaction, he's not going to be able to 932 00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:54,359 Speaker 3: hold onto those chips. And I hated to be wrong, 933 00:48:54,440 --> 00:48:56,000 Speaker 3: like I was, you know, rooting for him, use my 934 00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:59,200 Speaker 3: chips well and make it to the final table. But 935 00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:02,360 Speaker 3: sometimes times tilt can be very positive in the sense 936 00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:05,600 Speaker 3: that you're elated, you're so happy, but then it can 937 00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:07,359 Speaker 3: do weird things to you. It can make you think 938 00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:10,480 Speaker 3: that you can't lose. You start playing marginal hands that 939 00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:14,520 Speaker 3: you shouldn't be playing. You stop understanding the value of 940 00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:16,560 Speaker 3: your chips because you're like, ah, I can I can 941 00:49:16,560 --> 00:49:18,560 Speaker 3: gamble a little more because look at all these chips 942 00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:22,160 Speaker 3: I have. So you start calling raises you shouldn't be calling. 943 00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:25,200 Speaker 3: You start making raises you shouldn't be making. You start 944 00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:27,719 Speaker 3: getting yourself in situations that you should not be in, 945 00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:31,360 Speaker 3: and instead of growing those chips, they start shrinking and 946 00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:34,759 Speaker 3: shrinking and shrinking. And then you get frustrated because you say, wait, 947 00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,000 Speaker 3: I was the chip leader and now I have half 948 00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:40,520 Speaker 3: that that's terrible. I'm all in right, I need to 949 00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:42,160 Speaker 3: make it back. And suddenly you're out. 950 00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:44,760 Speaker 2: Where do you see that? In daily life? 951 00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:47,040 Speaker 3: That happened? I mean that happens all the time in 952 00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:48,760 Speaker 3: daily life. When things are going well. 953 00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:52,520 Speaker 1: And you're like, I am on a heater, I run 954 00:49:52,600 --> 00:49:54,960 Speaker 1: the world, and then all of a sudden something goes 955 00:49:55,000 --> 00:49:56,600 Speaker 1: bad and then you're like, no, I can recover, and 956 00:49:56,640 --> 00:49:57,000 Speaker 1: then you. 957 00:49:56,920 --> 00:49:59,040 Speaker 3: Do, and then and then and then exactly, it keeps 958 00:49:59,080 --> 00:50:03,000 Speaker 3: going bad and people. It also hampers your ability to 959 00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:06,320 Speaker 3: react well when things go bad, right, because you start 960 00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:08,719 Speaker 3: getting I hate to put it this way, but it's 961 00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:11,560 Speaker 3: almost a sense of entitlement right where you're like, no, 962 00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:14,320 Speaker 3: but I deserve for things to be going well because 963 00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:16,840 Speaker 3: like this is and then you say it's not fair, 964 00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:20,200 Speaker 3: which are words you should just never ever say thank 965 00:50:20,239 --> 00:50:22,719 Speaker 3: you mom. You know, she hammered it into me when 966 00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:24,239 Speaker 3: I was growing up, but you know, when you're a 967 00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:26,640 Speaker 3: little kid. I remember coming home, I don't remember what happened. 968 00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:29,520 Speaker 3: I was like, it's so unfair. She's like, I never 969 00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:34,120 Speaker 3: want to hear you say that phrase, because the world's unfair, right, 970 00:50:34,160 --> 00:50:37,760 Speaker 3: And if your attitude is it's so unfair, you're gonna lose. Yeah, 971 00:50:37,840 --> 00:50:40,279 Speaker 3: your attitude needs to be Okay, this happened. What do 972 00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:43,400 Speaker 3: I do? Right? World's on fair, honey, Like, live with 973 00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:48,480 Speaker 3: it and advice it's such good advice. But yeah, when 974 00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:52,040 Speaker 3: but people start thinking it's so unfair, like I deserve 975 00:50:52,080 --> 00:50:54,799 Speaker 3: for things to be better, and it starts once again, 976 00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:57,120 Speaker 3: you start going on tilt in life, and once again, 977 00:50:57,160 --> 00:50:59,879 Speaker 3: it can come from positive things. People do, I think 978 00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:03,319 Speaker 3: misunderstand the concept to say, oh, it's only like when 979 00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:06,560 Speaker 3: bad things are happening. But in some ways, winners tilt 980 00:51:06,640 --> 00:51:09,480 Speaker 3: can be more dangerous because you're less aware of it. Right, 981 00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:12,880 Speaker 3: because when those negative emotions are easier to process in 982 00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:16,960 Speaker 3: the sense of being self aware enough to know that 983 00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:20,640 Speaker 3: the negative emotions are happening, But when the positive ones 984 00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:24,200 Speaker 3: are happening, you're just elated. You're just happy, right, and 985 00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:27,879 Speaker 3: you're not taking the time to say, wait, is this 986 00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:32,799 Speaker 3: influencing my decision process? A hilarious study was done with 987 00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:37,879 Speaker 3: Wall Street that showed that people's investing decisions changed when 988 00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:38,879 Speaker 3: the home team won. 989 00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:45,440 Speaker 2: So and people people, Yeah. 990 00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:47,760 Speaker 3: When the team you're rooting for wins, you start investing 991 00:51:47,800 --> 00:51:51,120 Speaker 3: differently on the whole. It's such a fun It's not 992 00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:54,160 Speaker 3: just wall Street. I'm using Wall Street as shorthand for 993 00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:59,360 Speaker 3: global stuff markets, for financial markets. But it's so funny 994 00:52:00,200 --> 00:52:02,040 Speaker 3: not matter, and yet it does, and yet it does. 995 00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:04,480 Speaker 3: And when your home team loses, like you start you 996 00:52:04,520 --> 00:52:07,920 Speaker 3: start just evaluating risk differently, And it's just it's the 997 00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:10,640 Speaker 3: funniest thing. Man. I wonder what happened when the Knicks 998 00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:13,319 Speaker 3: finally won Nixon five. I wonder what happened to us? 999 00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:15,760 Speaker 1: A lot of money got thrown into the market. We'll see, 1000 00:52:16,600 --> 00:52:20,040 Speaker 1: So your mentor yeah, Eric's sidel give us an idea 1001 00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:23,040 Speaker 1: of who rises to the top in poker, because I 1002 00:52:23,040 --> 00:52:25,480 Speaker 1: think if people are unfamiliar, they're thinking, oh, this is 1003 00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:25,960 Speaker 1: like it's a. 1004 00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:26,799 Speaker 2: Bunch of degenerates. 1005 00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:29,880 Speaker 1: So just gamble all day, like who what type of 1006 00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:31,359 Speaker 1: personality is doing really well? 1007 00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:35,680 Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, obviously there are gamblers in poker, and 1008 00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:38,400 Speaker 3: like there are everywhere else. But I've met some of 1009 00:52:38,440 --> 00:52:43,239 Speaker 3: the smartest and you know, most just interesting and intelligent 1010 00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:46,719 Speaker 3: people I've ever met at the poker tables. So Eric 1011 00:52:46,840 --> 00:52:49,640 Speaker 3: used to work on Wall Street. He used to be 1012 00:52:49,680 --> 00:52:54,240 Speaker 3: a trader, and then people who have not seen Rounders 1013 00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:57,680 Speaker 3: should see Rounders. That was the only poker background I 1014 00:52:57,719 --> 00:53:01,160 Speaker 3: had prior to embarking on the show Journey. The reason 1015 00:53:01,239 --> 00:53:05,719 Speaker 3: I asked Eric to coach me was because he was 1016 00:53:05,760 --> 00:53:10,600 Speaker 3: in Rounders Awesome. And you know, there was a scene 1017 00:53:10,840 --> 00:53:14,160 Speaker 3: where basically over and over Matt Damon, who's one of 1018 00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:17,719 Speaker 3: the main characters of Rounders, keeps rewatching this footage of 1019 00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:20,480 Speaker 3: Eric Sidell coming in second in the main event of 1020 00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:24,880 Speaker 3: the world series to Johnny Chan where Yeah, Eric, just 1021 00:53:25,040 --> 00:53:27,000 Speaker 3: as he has since told me, like he's like, oh 1022 00:53:27,000 --> 00:53:29,799 Speaker 3: I got outplayed, but he had top pair, like he 1023 00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:32,359 Speaker 3: actually had a good hand heads up. Anyway, we won't 1024 00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:36,640 Speaker 3: go there. But he is very humble and modest, which 1025 00:53:36,640 --> 00:53:40,879 Speaker 3: is why he's still the best of the worlds. But yeah, 1026 00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:43,520 Speaker 3: so he used to be on Wall Street and you know, 1027 00:53:43,719 --> 00:53:47,200 Speaker 3: incredibly intelligent person, someone who has never gone broke right. 1028 00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:52,040 Speaker 3: People people say, oh, you know, I I've been broke 1029 00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:53,799 Speaker 3: three times and I've come back. That's not a point 1030 00:53:53,840 --> 00:53:55,839 Speaker 3: of pride. Like going broken ain't good and it means 1031 00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:59,200 Speaker 3: you did something wrong. I Caxton considered one of the 1032 00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:03,080 Speaker 3: best players in the world. Philosophy major from Brown University. 1033 00:54:04,320 --> 00:54:08,400 Speaker 3: You know, you end up meeting these There's a Harvard 1034 00:54:08,400 --> 00:54:11,080 Speaker 3: professor Brandon Adams, who you know is an incredibly good 1035 00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:14,520 Speaker 3: high stakes player. Like the other week, I was playing 1036 00:54:14,680 --> 00:54:19,799 Speaker 3: with someone who was an economic history professor and it 1037 00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:22,400 Speaker 3: was so amazing. I started asking him. I was like, oh, 1038 00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:24,840 Speaker 3: what do you specialize in? You know, Mesopotamia. I was like, 1039 00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:26,080 Speaker 3: how did you get into that? He said, well, I 1040 00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:28,640 Speaker 3: used to be an archaeologist, and I like all the digs, 1041 00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:30,600 Speaker 3: Like I got so into this that I, you know, 1042 00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:33,479 Speaker 3: went for a PhD in history, but then I became 1043 00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:36,480 Speaker 3: fascinated by economic history. And he starts giving He's like, oh, 1044 00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:38,120 Speaker 3: I'm sorry, like I'm giving you a lecture, Like please 1045 00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:42,760 Speaker 3: keep talking, this is fascinating, Like, tell me more about Mesopotamia. 1046 00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:45,440 Speaker 3: He's like, the reason there are sixty minutes in an 1047 00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:48,760 Speaker 3: hour is because of Mesopotamia and how they counted and 1048 00:54:48,560 --> 00:54:50,440 Speaker 3: all and I was like, this is so cool, this 1049 00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:55,040 Speaker 3: is amazing. But you see just incredibly intelligent people who 1050 00:54:55,480 --> 00:54:59,560 Speaker 3: love the game right because they love the intellectual challenge. 1051 00:55:00,280 --> 00:55:02,759 Speaker 3: They love kind of what it does for them. I mean, 1052 00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:04,279 Speaker 3: one of the things that I love is that it 1053 00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:06,279 Speaker 3: has made me so much better at other elements of 1054 00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:10,080 Speaker 3: my life, and it has really helped me uncover a 1055 00:55:10,080 --> 00:55:14,040 Speaker 3: lot of the problems that I've had in my decision 1056 00:55:14,040 --> 00:55:17,040 Speaker 3: making process, in my kind of emotional control, and it's 1057 00:55:17,040 --> 00:55:19,440 Speaker 3: helped me start working on them because you're putting, you know, 1058 00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:21,839 Speaker 3: to come full circle from earlier in the interview, You're 1059 00:55:21,840 --> 00:55:23,719 Speaker 3: putting your money where your mouth is. So unless you 1060 00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:26,719 Speaker 3: work on it, you're going to lose, and that's not good. 1061 00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:27,760 Speaker 2: We will break. 1062 00:55:27,800 --> 00:55:30,279 Speaker 1: And then Maria is going to describe why you can 1063 00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:32,640 Speaker 1: actually improve your luck if you focus on what she 1064 00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:43,120 Speaker 1: calls luck amplifiers. What's a luck amplifier? I love this 1065 00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:44,040 Speaker 1: idea in the book. 1066 00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:50,240 Speaker 3: Luck is obviously just chance, right, It's just stuff that happens. However, 1067 00:55:50,520 --> 00:55:54,120 Speaker 3: our mental the way that we respond to luck, the 1068 00:55:54,160 --> 00:55:56,000 Speaker 3: way that we respond to bad luck, and the way 1069 00:55:56,080 --> 00:56:00,480 Speaker 3: that we frame it in our minds, really can help change. 1070 00:56:00,800 --> 00:56:05,200 Speaker 3: So if you're someone who you know gets unlucky, and 1071 00:56:05,239 --> 00:56:07,440 Speaker 3: you're like, oh, man, Michael, you know, let me tell 1072 00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:11,560 Speaker 3: you this story about like this horrific bad beat. You know, 1073 00:56:11,680 --> 00:56:15,800 Speaker 3: I this this should always happens to me. You're like, okay, 1074 00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:19,719 Speaker 3: I am tuning out right, and I'm never going to 1075 00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:22,319 Speaker 3: have her here again. Now. If on the other hand, 1076 00:56:22,360 --> 00:56:23,880 Speaker 3: I was like, you know, this happened to me, but 1077 00:56:24,000 --> 00:56:26,239 Speaker 3: here's what I learned from it. And this is so 1078 00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:28,880 Speaker 3: great because you know, I am now in what I 1079 00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:32,000 Speaker 3: call the victor mindset as opposed to the victim mindset. 1080 00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:33,279 Speaker 3: You're like, oh, this is great. And I was like, 1081 00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:34,960 Speaker 3: you know, so I lost my job, but you know 1082 00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:36,840 Speaker 3: I learned all these great things. You're like, you know, 1083 00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:39,719 Speaker 3: next time someone has an opening, I'm going to think 1084 00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:44,880 Speaker 3: of Maria and I will actually mention her name because 1085 00:56:44,960 --> 00:56:46,919 Speaker 3: you know she, you know, she seems like it would 1086 00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:50,319 Speaker 3: be a really good fit. And you've just amplified your luck. 1087 00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:52,440 Speaker 3: But it can also be this type of thing where 1088 00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:55,040 Speaker 3: you're in a positive mindset and so you start noticing 1089 00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:57,600 Speaker 3: more things, right, so you become luckier just because you're 1090 00:56:57,640 --> 00:57:01,480 Speaker 3: more aware, and so kind of luck comes to you. 1091 00:57:01,480 --> 00:57:05,280 Speaker 3: You're like, wow, I'm sut, I'm lucky, right, and sure 1092 00:57:05,360 --> 00:57:07,600 Speaker 3: that there could be someone walking right next to you 1093 00:57:07,880 --> 00:57:10,880 Speaker 3: who is experiencing all the same things, but they're not, 1094 00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:13,520 Speaker 3: and so they didn't get lucky. But you're the one 1095 00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:16,040 Speaker 3: who kind of uncovered that hundred dollars bill on the 1096 00:57:16,040 --> 00:57:18,840 Speaker 3: ground and all of these things. And so they feed 1097 00:57:18,880 --> 00:57:21,560 Speaker 3: on each other and they amplify each other, and so 1098 00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:23,880 Speaker 3: luck can be amplified in all sorts of ways, from 1099 00:57:24,400 --> 00:57:29,000 Speaker 3: the mental framing to just your awareness the situations you 1100 00:57:29,080 --> 00:57:31,880 Speaker 3: end up putting yourself in. And it's also an understanding. 1101 00:57:31,920 --> 00:57:33,960 Speaker 3: You know, everyone's going to go on good runs and 1102 00:57:34,000 --> 00:57:36,240 Speaker 3: bad runs in life. You know, that's just the way 1103 00:57:36,240 --> 00:57:38,720 Speaker 3: that it works. When I'm on a good run, how 1104 00:57:38,760 --> 00:57:42,240 Speaker 3: do I maximize that, right? How do I take advantage 1105 00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:46,000 Speaker 3: of the fact that right now I'm healthy. Everything's okay, right, 1106 00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:49,520 Speaker 3: I am. You know, my brain's functioning, I'm able to 1107 00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:51,760 Speaker 3: do all this. You might think, oh, you know, you 1108 00:57:51,840 --> 00:57:53,880 Speaker 3: just got knocked out of it, But you're incredibly lucky. 1109 00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:57,720 Speaker 3: I'm here. I get to play poker, like what I guess. 1110 00:57:57,600 --> 00:57:58,760 Speaker 2: The World series exactly. 1111 00:57:58,840 --> 00:58:00,560 Speaker 3: In the World Series, I get to you know, be 1112 00:58:00,640 --> 00:58:04,040 Speaker 3: thinking about making notes for my next book that I'm 1113 00:58:04,040 --> 00:58:07,720 Speaker 3: going to finish writing as soon as the says is over. Right, 1114 00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:10,600 Speaker 3: So you have to kind of have that mindset of 1115 00:58:11,200 --> 00:58:13,640 Speaker 3: I am so lucky to be here, right, I am 1116 00:58:13,920 --> 00:58:17,880 Speaker 3: luckier than so many other people, and like that, I 1117 00:58:17,880 --> 00:58:21,160 Speaker 3: think that attitude will will help bring more lucky your way, 1118 00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:23,720 Speaker 3: so to speak, Like I do want to be very 1119 00:58:23,760 --> 00:58:26,479 Speaker 3: careful to you know, and how I phrase it because 1120 00:58:26,520 --> 00:58:28,760 Speaker 3: I don't. I hate the phrase you make your own 1121 00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:31,680 Speaker 3: luck because you don't like luck is luck. But you 1122 00:58:31,720 --> 00:58:35,560 Speaker 3: can put yourself in situations. Your goal is to put 1123 00:58:35,560 --> 00:58:38,400 Speaker 3: yourself in more situations to get lucky, right, give yourself 1124 00:58:38,440 --> 00:58:39,800 Speaker 3: more chances to get lucky. 1125 00:58:39,840 --> 00:58:42,640 Speaker 1: Well, and it changes your experience of day to day life. 1126 00:58:43,280 --> 00:58:46,760 Speaker 1: It's constantly pessimistic that and that's not fun in day life. 1127 00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:49,400 Speaker 3: It makes life so much better, right because if that 1128 00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:52,720 Speaker 3: I'm in the habit now of just I constantly reframe 1129 00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:55,320 Speaker 3: things and I try, and you know, people who are 1130 00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:58,000 Speaker 3: pessimists can find that annoying. They're like, stop telling me. 1131 00:58:58,080 --> 00:59:01,680 Speaker 3: I'm like, oh, look like okay, like you're allowed to experience, 1132 00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:03,920 Speaker 3: you know. It's not that I don't experience bad emotions. 1133 00:59:03,960 --> 00:59:07,640 Speaker 3: I do, of course, but then I actively start working 1134 00:59:07,680 --> 00:59:10,480 Speaker 3: on it and say, Okay, what do I learn from this? 1135 00:59:10,840 --> 00:59:13,320 Speaker 3: How do I get something positive out of this? And yeah, 1136 00:59:13,360 --> 00:59:16,200 Speaker 3: it's shitty, it happens, right, I don't think. I also 1137 00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:18,680 Speaker 3: hate the saying, you know, bad things happen for a reason. No, 1138 00:59:18,760 --> 00:59:21,000 Speaker 3: they don't like Sometimes they just happen and it sucks, 1139 00:59:21,360 --> 00:59:23,240 Speaker 3: and then you just have to like figure out, Okay, 1140 00:59:23,240 --> 00:59:26,440 Speaker 3: what do I do? It happened? I cannot change that. 1141 00:59:26,440 --> 00:59:29,200 Speaker 3: That's something I can't control. What I can control is 1142 00:59:29,240 --> 00:59:31,680 Speaker 3: my kind of mental framing of it. How I respond 1143 00:59:31,720 --> 00:59:35,360 Speaker 3: to what I do going forward. And that's it does 1144 00:59:35,440 --> 00:59:38,440 Speaker 3: make your life much better because it gives you back agency, right, 1145 00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:41,240 Speaker 3: it gives you back control over This is something that 1146 00:59:41,280 --> 00:59:43,840 Speaker 3: I can do. This is how I can actually make 1147 00:59:43,880 --> 00:59:47,680 Speaker 3: this experience at least get something out of it. Right. 1148 00:59:47,720 --> 00:59:50,200 Speaker 3: I'm not making it into a positive experience, but at 1149 00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:53,120 Speaker 3: least I'm figuring out, Okay, what do I do? How 1150 00:59:53,160 --> 00:59:56,160 Speaker 3: do I move on? And how do I you know, 1151 00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:58,840 Speaker 3: how do I put myself in a position where I 1152 00:59:58,880 --> 00:59:59,760 Speaker 3: can be luckier? 1153 01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:00,480 Speaker 2: I love it. 1154 01:00:00,600 --> 01:00:02,920 Speaker 1: We're going to break and Maria is going to describe 1155 01:00:03,160 --> 01:00:05,800 Speaker 1: when she decides how to bluff and how you can 1156 01:00:05,880 --> 01:00:15,320 Speaker 1: bluff to get ahead in life? How do you decide 1157 01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:18,600 Speaker 1: to bluff? So I how can a person use that? 1158 01:00:18,960 --> 01:00:22,200 Speaker 1: I feel like in my own career in magazines in particular, 1159 01:00:22,520 --> 01:00:24,800 Speaker 1: I saw people who are really good at bluffing, just 1160 01:00:24,840 --> 01:00:27,640 Speaker 1: like rise up the ranks of Now I will say 1161 01:00:27,760 --> 01:00:31,240 Speaker 1: the caveat is they didn't stay in positions a long time. 1162 01:00:31,920 --> 01:00:33,920 Speaker 1: They would be like, you know, they would talk a 1163 01:00:33,920 --> 01:00:35,600 Speaker 1: big game, then they'd show up and then they'd be 1164 01:00:35,640 --> 01:00:36,960 Speaker 1: gone in a year. But they would take a next 1165 01:00:37,040 --> 01:00:39,520 Speaker 1: higher position, so they're just kind of bouncing around. 1166 01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:40,160 Speaker 2: They fell upward. 1167 01:00:40,240 --> 01:00:43,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, no, there's a So there's there's a difference 1168 01:00:43,400 --> 01:00:47,360 Speaker 3: obviously between bluffing and poker and bluffing in real life. 1169 01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:49,960 Speaker 3: But I think that, you know, a little bit of 1170 01:00:49,960 --> 01:00:52,760 Speaker 3: bluff is actually very good, especially for someone like me. 1171 01:00:53,200 --> 01:00:55,439 Speaker 3: And I say especially for someone like me because one 1172 01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:57,560 Speaker 3: I'm female and changes the game. 1173 01:00:57,680 --> 01:01:00,320 Speaker 1: Yeah absolutely, you said, like, what is it for two 1174 01:01:00,520 --> 01:01:01,840 Speaker 1: four percent on average games? 1175 01:01:02,040 --> 01:01:02,240 Speaker 4: Women? 1176 01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:05,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, yep, you know that that really just that changes things. 1177 01:01:06,000 --> 01:01:08,320 Speaker 3: And I'm female both in poke rand in life, and 1178 01:01:08,560 --> 01:01:13,000 Speaker 3: it's just just a just the way I am and 1179 01:01:13,120 --> 01:01:15,400 Speaker 3: so and so you have to understand that, like perceptions 1180 01:01:15,400 --> 01:01:18,280 Speaker 3: of you are different and also things that society has 1181 01:01:18,280 --> 01:01:22,040 Speaker 3: taught us. And by us, I mean women are different 1182 01:01:22,200 --> 01:01:25,960 Speaker 3: than the way that you know, unfortunately society treats men like. 1183 01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:30,000 Speaker 3: We still live in a society that's very patriarchal, and 1184 01:01:30,040 --> 01:01:34,000 Speaker 3: that's that's just kind of the facts of life. And so, 1185 01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:36,960 Speaker 3: you know, you sometimes you'll find that, you know, woman 1186 01:01:36,960 --> 01:01:39,520 Speaker 3: has passed over for a job because when she's asked 1187 01:01:39,520 --> 01:01:42,440 Speaker 3: about her qualifications, she's honest about it. And there's a 1188 01:01:42,480 --> 01:01:45,040 Speaker 3: guy who comes in, as you say, and he's like, oh, yeah, absolutely, 1189 01:01:45,040 --> 01:01:47,560 Speaker 3: I've done this, I've done got yeah, I got this, 1190 01:01:47,680 --> 01:01:50,200 Speaker 3: and you know, gets hired. And the woman was probably 1191 01:01:50,240 --> 01:01:54,320 Speaker 3: more qualified and I'm talking theoretically of course, and could 1192 01:01:54,320 --> 01:01:58,360 Speaker 3: probably do a better job, but didn't bluff quite enough. 1193 01:01:58,800 --> 01:02:02,360 Speaker 3: And it's a it's this A little goes a long way. 1194 01:02:02,640 --> 01:02:05,320 Speaker 3: What I mean by that is you can actually take 1195 01:02:05,360 --> 01:02:07,680 Speaker 3: something from poker. And because for me, bluffing was really 1196 01:02:07,720 --> 01:02:10,880 Speaker 3: hard at the beginning. It's not something that comes naturally 1197 01:02:10,960 --> 01:02:13,000 Speaker 3: to me. So when I tried to kind of be 1198 01:02:13,040 --> 01:02:15,600 Speaker 3: aggressive and do it, it didn't work because people could 1199 01:02:15,760 --> 01:02:18,200 Speaker 3: see through it. And then I figured out how to 1200 01:02:18,320 --> 01:02:21,320 Speaker 3: kind of make it a natural part of how I 1201 01:02:21,360 --> 01:02:23,840 Speaker 3: play and do it in a way that was more 1202 01:02:23,920 --> 01:02:25,160 Speaker 3: in tune with my style. 1203 01:02:25,720 --> 01:02:29,240 Speaker 1: And so maybe don't want to talk about this because no. 1204 01:02:29,040 --> 01:02:30,960 Speaker 3: No, it's fine. It's fine. So you know, I might 1205 01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:34,160 Speaker 3: not No, no, I might not be kind of as 1206 01:02:34,200 --> 01:02:36,160 Speaker 3: aggressive as kind of people are like, no, you're like 1207 01:02:36,200 --> 01:02:38,160 Speaker 3: you're not being You're not bluffing enough. Okay, that's fine. 1208 01:02:38,160 --> 01:02:40,520 Speaker 3: Like I might not bluff quite as much as they do, 1209 01:02:40,920 --> 01:02:43,800 Speaker 3: but I do it in the spots where I might 1210 01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:46,240 Speaker 3: get more credit because I'm a woman, right, I try 1211 01:02:46,280 --> 01:02:48,720 Speaker 3: to use kind of I try to use my image 1212 01:02:48,760 --> 01:02:50,680 Speaker 3: and I try to figure out, you know, how do 1213 01:02:50,760 --> 01:02:52,720 Speaker 3: you see women when they play right? How do you 1214 01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:55,600 Speaker 3: see me as as a player, And how do I 1215 01:02:55,720 --> 01:02:57,600 Speaker 3: kind of how do I use that right? How do 1216 01:02:57,720 --> 01:03:02,080 Speaker 3: I massage my bluff? How do I change my approach 1217 01:03:02,120 --> 01:03:04,800 Speaker 3: based on you, right, based on how you see me? 1218 01:03:06,000 --> 01:03:09,600 Speaker 3: And sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. And I've also 1219 01:03:09,680 --> 01:03:12,160 Speaker 3: become much more comfortable with when it doesn't work. You know, 1220 01:03:12,200 --> 01:03:14,840 Speaker 3: you show that bluff with pride, right, because it helps 1221 01:03:14,840 --> 01:03:17,120 Speaker 3: you in the future, it's setting up table limit, it's 1222 01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:20,760 Speaker 3: doing good things for you as well. And not being 1223 01:03:20,920 --> 01:03:23,000 Speaker 3: kind of afraid to be caught, I think has also 1224 01:03:23,040 --> 01:03:26,600 Speaker 3: been very liberating and also learning the game more where 1225 01:03:26,760 --> 01:03:28,680 Speaker 3: I don't feel like it's a bluff, I feel like 1226 01:03:28,680 --> 01:03:31,560 Speaker 3: it's a correct play, right. I've reframed it and I've 1227 01:03:31,600 --> 01:03:34,240 Speaker 3: said I'm not bluffing. I'm making the play I should 1228 01:03:34,280 --> 01:03:35,920 Speaker 3: be making with these cards at this moment. 1229 01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:36,440 Speaker 2: Yeah. 1230 01:03:36,520 --> 01:03:40,320 Speaker 1: Some of the smartest people I know, they purposefully come 1231 01:03:40,360 --> 01:03:44,360 Speaker 1: off publicly as almost you know, kind of laid back, 1232 01:03:44,640 --> 01:03:46,880 Speaker 1: good old boys, but they're just math geniuses. 1233 01:03:47,000 --> 01:03:47,160 Speaker 3: Yeah. 1234 01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:48,440 Speaker 2: I'm thinking of Dave Ramsey. 1235 01:03:48,600 --> 01:03:50,960 Speaker 1: He's got this like, you know, kind of Oh, I'm 1236 01:03:50,960 --> 01:03:52,840 Speaker 1: just kind of a Southern hick who talks about money, 1237 01:03:52,880 --> 01:03:55,280 Speaker 1: but he's like a math genius up in there. 1238 01:03:55,480 --> 01:03:58,120 Speaker 3: You know. It's so funny how people You know, this 1239 01:03:58,200 --> 01:04:01,280 Speaker 3: is something that I've thought about. I'm sure you've thought 1240 01:04:01,280 --> 01:04:04,200 Speaker 3: about it, written about, and as a psychologist, I have 1241 01:04:04,200 --> 01:04:06,280 Speaker 3: thought about all the time, the way that our kind 1242 01:04:06,280 --> 01:04:10,520 Speaker 3: of preconceptions and biases of what certain things mean, how 1243 01:04:10,560 --> 01:04:14,280 Speaker 3: they color how we see people. And it's you know, 1244 01:04:14,360 --> 01:04:16,520 Speaker 3: things like, you know, are you female, Things like do 1245 01:04:16,560 --> 01:04:19,520 Speaker 3: you have a Southern accent? Right? All of a sudden, 1246 01:04:19,600 --> 01:04:21,840 Speaker 3: like people might tell you more because they're like, oh, 1247 01:04:22,000 --> 01:04:24,560 Speaker 3: like you must not you know, Yeah, Oh, you're just 1248 01:04:24,600 --> 01:04:26,960 Speaker 3: like a You're just like a homeboy. You're like, you're 1249 01:04:26,960 --> 01:04:30,280 Speaker 3: so laid back, like with that southern drawl. How can 1250 01:04:30,320 --> 01:04:34,320 Speaker 3: you not be right? You're you're just so trustworthy and 1251 01:04:34,320 --> 01:04:36,720 Speaker 3: and it's so funny. And you can learn to manipulate 1252 01:04:36,760 --> 01:04:39,080 Speaker 3: those types of signals that have absolutely nothing to do 1253 01:04:39,120 --> 01:04:43,960 Speaker 3: with reality. But and yet the stereotypes, kind of the perceptions, 1254 01:04:44,040 --> 01:04:47,000 Speaker 3: those those learned things really do affect our behaviors. 1255 01:04:47,360 --> 01:04:48,760 Speaker 1: I will start to land the plane because I want 1256 01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:52,000 Speaker 1: you to get back to plant broker. Two final questions. 1257 01:04:52,000 --> 01:04:55,240 Speaker 1: First one is where's an instance of in your life 1258 01:04:55,280 --> 01:04:58,680 Speaker 1: where the lessons you learned from poker enhanced it or 1259 01:04:58,800 --> 01:05:01,480 Speaker 1: change your decision make in some way that ended up 1260 01:05:01,680 --> 01:05:02,520 Speaker 1: in a better outcome. 1261 01:05:02,840 --> 01:05:05,480 Speaker 3: So one that I talk about frequently is kind of 1262 01:05:05,760 --> 01:05:08,440 Speaker 3: is financial and negotiations. So I'm not going to talk 1263 01:05:08,480 --> 01:05:12,720 Speaker 3: about that now because that's very obvious, right, that it's 1264 01:05:12,760 --> 01:05:14,200 Speaker 3: made me better at negotiating. 1265 01:05:15,960 --> 01:05:18,240 Speaker 2: But yeah, have a great anecdote about that in the book, 1266 01:05:18,280 --> 01:05:18,640 Speaker 2: by the way. 1267 01:05:18,720 --> 01:05:23,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, but one that is less obvious. So poker teaches 1268 01:05:24,040 --> 01:05:26,880 Speaker 3: you that sometimes you just need to walk away, right, 1269 01:05:27,440 --> 01:05:31,880 Speaker 3: that sometimes the best play is folding, and that if 1270 01:05:31,920 --> 01:05:35,560 Speaker 3: you keep holding onto a hand because it was really 1271 01:05:35,600 --> 01:05:38,919 Speaker 3: good before. And you don't learn to let go, you're 1272 01:05:39,040 --> 01:05:42,680 Speaker 3: going to go broke. Right, you could have pocket aces, 1273 01:05:42,920 --> 01:05:47,840 Speaker 3: single best hands, and then you know should happens, and 1274 01:05:47,880 --> 01:05:50,600 Speaker 3: your pocket aces are just another pair that now have 1275 01:05:50,920 --> 01:05:52,480 Speaker 3: just no relation to the board. And there are some 1276 01:05:52,520 --> 01:05:57,200 Speaker 3: people who just they cannot fold sunk cost fallacy. Right, 1277 01:05:57,240 --> 01:06:00,960 Speaker 3: I've already invested so much money into this that you 1278 01:06:01,000 --> 01:06:04,040 Speaker 3: know I can't walk away, Yeah, exactly, and you go 1279 01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:08,200 Speaker 3: broke learning to that the sun cost fallacy really is 1280 01:06:08,400 --> 01:06:10,760 Speaker 3: a fallacy, right, that you should not be putting good 1281 01:06:10,760 --> 01:06:14,520 Speaker 3: money after bad, good time after bad, good emotional energy 1282 01:06:14,560 --> 01:06:17,240 Speaker 3: after bad, because as we've already said, you can't change 1283 01:06:17,280 --> 01:06:19,280 Speaker 3: the past, but you can change the future, right, you 1284 01:06:19,320 --> 01:06:21,800 Speaker 3: can ask you can change how you're acting right now. 1285 01:06:22,400 --> 01:06:24,840 Speaker 3: And so everything you've already done, all the money you've invested, 1286 01:06:24,880 --> 01:06:27,760 Speaker 3: all the emotional energy, whatever it is that's gone, you 1287 01:06:27,800 --> 01:06:30,520 Speaker 3: can't change that, but you can change your action now. 1288 01:06:30,760 --> 01:06:32,480 Speaker 3: And if something that used to be the right decision 1289 01:06:32,560 --> 01:06:36,480 Speaker 3: is no longer the right decision, walk away. And that 1290 01:06:36,520 --> 01:06:39,200 Speaker 3: has been such an unlock in my life. I have 1291 01:06:39,720 --> 01:06:43,080 Speaker 3: ended up. I won't name any names, but there are 1292 01:06:43,080 --> 01:06:46,360 Speaker 3: a few frenemies that I've carried through a lot of 1293 01:06:46,400 --> 01:06:49,479 Speaker 3: my life, and this enabled me to just walk away 1294 01:06:49,480 --> 01:06:52,120 Speaker 3: from those relationships. Yeah, I was like, you know what, 1295 01:06:52,320 --> 01:06:55,120 Speaker 3: I'm done, you are no longer going to be a part. 1296 01:06:55,160 --> 01:06:57,040 Speaker 3: And before it was so hard because you're like, I've 1297 01:06:57,080 --> 01:06:59,880 Speaker 3: known you for so long, and then you realize, you know, 1298 01:07:00,160 --> 01:07:03,040 Speaker 3: this person is not good for me, hasn't been for 1299 01:07:03,080 --> 01:07:05,600 Speaker 3: a long time. I just need to fold. I need 1300 01:07:05,640 --> 01:07:09,200 Speaker 3: to walk away, and that power to just do that 1301 01:07:10,120 --> 01:07:12,640 Speaker 3: in all areas of your life. But I think so 1302 01:07:12,720 --> 01:07:15,160 Speaker 3: many people need that nudge in the personal area. Right. 1303 01:07:15,360 --> 01:07:17,880 Speaker 3: Do you know how many people do you know who 1304 01:07:17,920 --> 01:07:20,360 Speaker 3: are in bad relationships or who ended up getting married 1305 01:07:20,400 --> 01:07:22,480 Speaker 3: when they should have just split up because they're like 1306 01:07:22,800 --> 01:07:25,080 Speaker 3: or have a kid even though they should have gotten divorced, 1307 01:07:25,400 --> 01:07:28,479 Speaker 3: because they just keep just keep putting good time after 1308 01:07:28,560 --> 01:07:31,040 Speaker 3: bad and they're like, oh but we've been together for 1309 01:07:31,080 --> 01:07:34,960 Speaker 3: so long, we you know, no, Okay, Well things change. 1310 01:07:35,080 --> 01:07:37,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, totally. I love it all. 1311 01:07:37,560 --> 01:07:40,480 Speaker 1: Right, final question, I think I think this is correct. 1312 01:07:40,720 --> 01:07:43,000 Speaker 1: Koppleman is doing a Vegas show. 1313 01:07:43,480 --> 01:07:44,760 Speaker 3: Yes, it's called The Roman. 1314 01:07:44,960 --> 01:07:46,800 Speaker 2: The Roman. It's going to be on Netflix, and you're. 1315 01:07:46,640 --> 01:07:48,280 Speaker 3: Helping yeah, it's going to be on Netflix. 1316 01:07:48,360 --> 01:07:50,160 Speaker 1: I tell me, can you tell us anything about it 1317 01:07:50,160 --> 01:07:50,680 Speaker 1: before we go? 1318 01:07:51,240 --> 01:07:53,200 Speaker 3: No, I can say that I was a consulting producer, 1319 01:07:53,560 --> 01:07:55,880 Speaker 3: so I was in the writer's room for it. Oscar 1320 01:07:55,960 --> 01:07:59,560 Speaker 3: Isaacs starring Alec Baldwin's and it's going to be It's 1321 01:07:59,560 --> 01:08:01,680 Speaker 3: going to be rate. It's about, you know, the high 1322 01:08:01,680 --> 01:08:06,200 Speaker 3: stakes world of Vegas casinos and I'm really excited for it. 1323 01:08:06,240 --> 01:08:08,920 Speaker 2: Amazing. And then your next book comes out next year. 1324 01:08:08,960 --> 01:08:11,680 Speaker 3: We hope it does not have a publication date yet, 1325 01:08:12,680 --> 01:08:16,800 Speaker 3: but yes, yes, Scott Scott's my own while I will 1326 01:08:16,880 --> 01:08:19,880 Speaker 3: I will get this. We hope it will be out 1327 01:08:19,880 --> 01:08:21,400 Speaker 3: next year. It's about cheating in games. 1328 01:08:21,560 --> 01:08:22,080 Speaker 2: I love it. 1329 01:08:22,360 --> 01:08:24,679 Speaker 1: Well, Maria, We're gonna let you get back to taking 1330 01:08:24,760 --> 01:08:27,639 Speaker 1: money off people hopefully, and I hope you go far. 1331 01:08:27,920 --> 01:08:30,000 Speaker 3: Thank you so much, Michael, it's been an absolute pleasure. 1332 01:08:30,400 --> 01:08:31,200 Speaker 2: That is a wrap. 1333 01:08:31,240 --> 01:08:33,160 Speaker 1: Thanks for checking out the show, and thanks to Maria 1334 01:08:33,240 --> 01:08:35,360 Speaker 1: for dropping into the studio, and good luck. 1335 01:08:35,160 --> 01:08:36,920 Speaker 2: To hear it this year's world series. 1336 01:08:37,000 --> 01:08:38,600 Speaker 1: As always, we're in your feed twice a week, so 1337 01:08:38,640 --> 01:08:40,920 Speaker 1: please keep an eye out for more. Give us a review, 1338 01:08:41,040 --> 01:08:43,280 Speaker 1: hit subscribe helps. The show also helps you know when 1339 01:08:43,320 --> 01:08:45,760 Speaker 1: new episodes are coming out and speaking of betting, I 1340 01:08:45,800 --> 01:08:49,040 Speaker 1: bet you won't download the iHeart app which gives video 1341 01:08:49,280 --> 01:08:54,040 Speaker 1: of this show for free. As always, have fun, don't die, 1342 01:08:54,400 --> 01:08:55,720 Speaker 1: and go all in once in a while. 1343 01:09:02,640 --> 01:09:03,920 Speaker 2: Kla Scot