1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:04,640 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Better than Most, Better than Most, 2 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:16,160 Speaker 1: Better than Most? Winner, trick Down, You got real talent, 3 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 1: Concentrate on God. 4 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:21,480 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Draftkis. I'm 5 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:23,960 Speaker 2: your host Mike Calbers, and every Wednesday, I'm joined by 6 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 2: our golf luminary Spencer Agiar and Kyle Murray to dive 7 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 2: into the upcoming events in the PGA. Today, we'll be 8 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 2: previewing the Vausbar Championship played at the Innsbruck Resort and 9 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 2: Club in Palm Harbor, Florida. They've been playing this tournament 10 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:41,160 Speaker 2: since two thousand and Victor Hovlin held off Justin Thomas 11 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 2: last year to win it with a score of eleven 12 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:45,560 Speaker 2: under par. He's third in the pecking order on the 13 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 2: odds board this week at sixteen to one, behind Xander 14 00:00:48,520 --> 00:00:52,479 Speaker 2: and Matt Fitzpatrick. But before we talk winners, head, the head, placement, wagers, 15 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 2: everything that you've known that to expect coming out of 16 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 2: this pod, let's first talk about this copper Head course. Now, 17 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 2: it's there's no rest for the weary for these golfers, 18 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 2: particularly the ones who attempted to attack TPC sawgrass last week. 19 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:09,119 Speaker 2: For starters, there's over seventy five feet of elevation change 20 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:11,760 Speaker 2: in this course, a rarity for something in the Sunshine 21 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 2: State that translates to a lot of uphill and downhill approaches, 22 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 2: t shots to seemingly tight or invisible targets, and overall, 23 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:22,479 Speaker 2: Copperhead is a tough ball striking challenge with tea and 24 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 2: tree lined fairways, So toss in lots of dog legs 25 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 2: and you know the famous finish that's known as the 26 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 2: snake pit. And it's no wonder that Copperhead has been 27 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 2: graded out as the toughest seventy one par tournament course 28 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 2: among all non majors on tour in two of the 29 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,119 Speaker 2: last three years. So Kyle, let's get you in here. First. 30 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 2: Thoughts on this course overall, what your model thinks of 31 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,160 Speaker 2: it and how it starts to shape the field, and 32 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 2: who you like. 33 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, certainly going to be a tough task for these guys. Obviously, 34 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,160 Speaker 3: looking back at recent scores, we haven't really seen a 35 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 3: ton of you know, exciting, low scoring tournament finishes for 36 00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 3: these guys here. And I think it's funny last week 37 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 3: we talked about maybe the most difficult or one of 38 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 3: the most difficult. Certainly, I would say Sawgrass is one 39 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 3: of the most famous finishing stretches, especially those last two holes, 40 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 3: But sixteen seventeen eighteen here the snake pit is certainly 41 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 3: going to be a tough task for guys who are 42 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 3: looking to close out rounds and maybe even potentially closing 43 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 3: out a tournament. Obviously, lots of volatility has been shown 44 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:22,959 Speaker 3: similar to last week with finishing positions here throughout the 45 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 3: last four or five years. But I find it noteworthy 46 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 3: that no vallaspar winner has ever played the sixteen seventeen 47 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:32,919 Speaker 3: eighteen finished the snake pit under par, so that's worth 48 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 3: noting that. Obviously it's going to be a difficult task. 49 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 3: Certainly you're gonna have to look for guys who don't 50 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,240 Speaker 3: know ruin their rounds, ruin their tournaments in those holes. 51 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 3: But it's also going to be a spot where you 52 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 3: just need to stay alive in that stretch. 53 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 4: So there's certainly going to be some volatility. 54 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 3: I feel like, similar to most weeks, we're going to 55 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,239 Speaker 3: see a lot of tea to greenplay, and last week 56 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 3: I came on and talked about not seeing a lot 57 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,519 Speaker 3: of predictive value in putting. I think it's a little 58 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 3: bit different this week. I did see some pretty solid 59 00:02:57,440 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 3: predictive value towards certain splits and three avoidance on Bermuda splits, 60 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:03,760 Speaker 3: so I think that is going to be a little 61 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,360 Speaker 3: bit more important. I'm still not going to go crazy 62 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:07,639 Speaker 3: with that, because at the end of the day, I 63 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 3: do think ball striking is going to be you know, 64 00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:12,800 Speaker 3: the end all bell for most tournaments, but again specifically 65 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:14,360 Speaker 3: for this one, where it is going to be a 66 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,800 Speaker 3: tough challenge. The approach buckets are going to be very interesting. 67 00:03:18,320 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 3: Going to be a lot of lesson driver out there 68 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 3: this week, kind of putting some guys in some tricky 69 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:24,919 Speaker 3: positions on approach play. So I think there is going 70 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 3: to be a scrambling units that is going to be 71 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 3: pretty you know, high high value this week, because again, 72 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:33,399 Speaker 3: there are going to be pretty good amount of myscreens 73 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 3: with all these difficult and long approach shots, these guys 74 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 3: are going to be forced to take with the lesson 75 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 3: driver approach on a lot of these holes. 76 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 4: So I do think that, yes, t de. 77 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 3: Green play is going to be crucial as it is 78 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 3: every single week, but for me specifically this week, compared 79 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 3: to the way my model works on most weeks, I 80 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 3: am factoring in short game a little bit more than 81 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 3: in previous weeks, specifically last week as. 82 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 2: Well, Spencer. That was a comprehensive recap on the course 83 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 2: itself from Kyle. Anything to add or anything that popped 84 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 2: out from your model when you first sat down to 85 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 2: look at this course. 86 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 5: I mean, I think you kind of talked about it 87 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 5: at the beginning. Michael. It's you get a Florida course here, 88 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 5: but it does not feel like the typical Florida nature 89 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 5: of what you get. It's this tree line disposition that 90 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 5: players are asked and there's been a lot of discussion 91 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 5: in the space over the last I would say twenty 92 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 5: four to forty eight hours of what does this course 93 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 5: actually demand? And Kyle talked about it a little bit 94 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:32,200 Speaker 5: like if we're looking for correlated answers, it's really tough 95 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 5: to find it. And it's a funny answer for me 96 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,919 Speaker 5: to give because if you look at just the winners 97 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,599 Speaker 5: of this tournament, Sam Burns back to back years, you 98 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:41,719 Speaker 5: have Paul Casey who won in back to back years 99 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 5: over the last seven years. But if you take the 100 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 5: deeper dive of this, there is a lot of volatility 101 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 5: around this course and difficulty of a venue will typically 102 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 5: do that water comes into play on nine holes. We 103 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,159 Speaker 5: know water is always the great equalizer at the end 104 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:01,599 Speaker 5: of the day. I do think whether this is a 105 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:03,800 Speaker 5: driver course or not a driver course is a little 106 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 5: bit up for interpretation on it. The one thing I 107 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:09,120 Speaker 5: would say where Kyle is one hundred percent correct is 108 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 5: is there are force layups throughout And that doesn't even 109 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 5: mean a force layup necessarily to where a driver cannot 110 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 5: be used on that whole, but more so, a driver 111 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 5: is going to put everybody in the same spot, and 112 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:23,599 Speaker 5: you're gonna have players that are some of these bigger, 113 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 5: stronger guys that are able to club down. So I 114 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 5: think the only thing that I would add to what 115 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 5: Kyle talked about is seventy two percent of the shots 116 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 5: are going to take place on your approach shots from 117 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 5: one hundred and fifty plus yards. For me, that kind 118 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 5: of just is going to look in my model strokes 119 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 5: gain total aspect. That's a very simplistic outlook to try 120 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 5: to narrow down to. And a lot of the ways 121 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:49,600 Speaker 5: where I'm gonna get different is how I retry to 122 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 5: calculate a lot of those strokes gain metrics. And I'll 123 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 5: talk about it a little bits as I discussed the 124 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:57,600 Speaker 5: players that I bet I've talked a lot on the 125 00:05:57,600 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 5: show over the last few weeks about how I look 126 00:05:59,279 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 5: at way to stroke gained total, how I look at 127 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 5: correlated results for this course, and we'll dive into that 128 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:07,839 Speaker 5: a little bit deeper. But twenty four yard wide fairways, 129 00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 5: they're extremely narrow, and then you're also going to have 130 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 5: this three inch to four inch rough that just complicates 131 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 5: matters for everybody this week. It's going to be a 132 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:18,239 Speaker 5: very difficult scoring course. 133 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 2: All Right, we're gonna put this field into the meat grinder, 134 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 2: see who comes out. Let's start with the head to 135 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 2: head market and I'll go to you first, spencer. You 136 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:31,159 Speaker 2: like Riohisa Soune over Taylor Pendrith, and at least from 137 00:06:31,279 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 2: you know, an analytics perspective, he's very accurate off the 138 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 2: sea and he has very strong mid to long irons, 139 00:06:36,880 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 2: which is something that you just mentioned in terms of 140 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 2: long iron shots headed into the green. So obviously that 141 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 2: brought you to him in this one minus one ten 142 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 2: over tailor in this head to head, where would your 143 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 2: cutoff point be in terms of price, because a lot 144 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 2: of these head to head markets can move pretty you 145 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 2: know substantially as money starts to come in during the week. 146 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:58,159 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'll always shop around for the best price that 147 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 5: you can get. I think somewhere in the high minus 148 00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:03,679 Speaker 5: one twenties my proper that I had as of yesterday. 149 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 5: I haven't re updated the numbers. I usually add in 150 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 5: sharp movement and try to look at some of the 151 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 5: corollary stats that come in over the last couple days 152 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 5: and that number will shift the point or two. But 153 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,320 Speaker 5: I had proper at minus one twenty eight there, So 154 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 5: I think if you shop around, I don't want to 155 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 5: promise that at this particular time, but I still think 156 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 5: you can find a number that's better than that. For me, 157 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 5: it's one of those spots. And it's kind of a 158 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 5: mixed bag when I come on the show, whether it's 159 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 5: a a lot of times I'm trying to find golfers 160 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 5: that I want to fade in particular matchups. And this 161 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 5: answer is not to say that I necessarily love Taylor Pendrith. 162 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 5: I do see a profile of his that might be 163 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 5: a little bit safer than meets the eye. At the 164 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 5: end of the day, if you're trying to like pick 165 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 5: holes in his game, it's LUs fifteen strokes putting over 166 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 5: his last two tournaments that doesn't exactly scream up side potential. 167 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 5: You add in some of the approach metrics that it 168 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:00,080 Speaker 5: takes this similar downturn for what you just talked about 169 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,120 Speaker 5: Michael with Reel, where it's like the mid to long 170 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 5: iron play looks good, accurate driver of the ball, high 171 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 5: greens and regulation percentage. I really liked Rio this week. 172 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 5: We've seen him be a substantial mover in all markets 173 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 5: pretty much anything that you're looking at, whether it's an 174 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 5: outright I think he opened, I want to say, on 175 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 5: Sunday night at potentially eighty to one, and if you 176 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:21,440 Speaker 5: shop around at this point, like there are some sharp 177 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 5: markets out there that have him blow thirty, you can 178 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 5: find better than that if you look around the space. 179 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 5: But it just goes to show that there is a 180 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 5: backing to Rio. There is a statistical profile that makes 181 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 5: a lot of sense. He played extremely well at TPC Sawgrass, 182 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 5: and even the finish that he provided probably was a 183 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 5: lot less than what it should have been. He bogied 184 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:44,439 Speaker 5: three or four of the final five or six holes 185 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 5: there to kind of move himself down that leaderboard. But 186 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 5: I really like Rio this week I'm trying to find 187 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 5: ways to get exposure to him in all different markets, 188 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 5: and I think if you look around and you shop around, 189 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:56,560 Speaker 5: one of the things you're gonna notice is he is 190 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 5: a sharp mover across the board. And from a statistical perspective, 191 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 5: it makes a lot of sense. 192 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 2: Why all right, let's get you in here, Kyle talking 193 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 2: about Austin Smotherman over Thompson at minus one twelve. I 194 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 2: mean it's you don't really need to dive that deep 195 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 2: into the SATs. He's been hot lately, and he's also 196 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 2: earned a reputation going all the way back, you know, 197 00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 2: to his college days for being someone who could really 198 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 2: close And you brought it up earlier in the episode 199 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 2: that the snake pit, can you know, victimize lots of 200 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 2: golfers here? So beyond that, once you get into some 201 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 2: of the ball striking statistics for him, why do you 202 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:29,560 Speaker 2: like smothermn so much? Not just in the head to head, 203 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 2: but not to spoil some of your picks later in 204 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 2: the episode, it looks like you're sprinkling him in lots 205 00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 2: of different markets. 206 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:36,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, it was a nice hit on Smotherman in that 207 00:09:36,679 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 3: top twenty market last week. 208 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 4: I think it was plus six seventy. 209 00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 3: I was, you know, I came on the show, talked 210 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 3: about how I was a little bit hesitant to back 211 00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 3: when the outright market last week at the Players because 212 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 3: of you know, the withdraw in the previous week. But 213 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 3: obviously bounce bounce right back at Sawgrass. There is some 214 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,839 Speaker 3: you know, some maybe some question marks around the potential 215 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 3: birth of his third child, but it sounds like he 216 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,439 Speaker 3: was given the at the full go, so not concerned 217 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 3: about that, you know, a withdrawal due to paternity reasons. 218 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,559 Speaker 3: But yeah, Smallerman. Obviously all the ball striking numbers look fantastic. 219 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:07,679 Speaker 3: He grades out as a top five player in this model, 220 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:10,319 Speaker 3: but you know, even better in this matchup. It's not 221 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 3: just a backing of Smetherment, it's also a fade of 222 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 3: Davis Thompson here. He's someone who has just you know, 223 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 3: dating back to maybe twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four, 224 00:10:19,160 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 3: I was someone who was backing Davis Thompson pretty significantly 225 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:24,559 Speaker 3: in that time period. Obviously, he won the John Deere 226 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty four. He was one of those guys 227 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 3: who was ball striking with the best of them at times, 228 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 3: but he just could not do anything with the putter, 229 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 3: and that was obviously his downfall. I mentioned earlier that 230 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 3: I do think putting and short game does have some 231 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:39,200 Speaker 3: pretty significant predictive value here this week in my opinion, 232 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:43,199 Speaker 3: But now we're seeing a pretty bad form for David 233 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 3: Thompson on the T degreen frame as well. He just 234 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 3: isn't getting things done. He's outside the top sixty and 235 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 3: strokes ted degree in my blended model, and his recent 236 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:53,760 Speaker 3: form over his last twenty four rounds also looks pretty 237 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 3: poor in pretty much across the board, but specifically TEA degreen. 238 00:10:57,360 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 3: We know what we're gonna get from the putting numbers 239 00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 3: from Thompson. It's never going to look good. He has 240 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 3: shown some spikeability with the putting game, but he also 241 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,080 Speaker 3: has bad splits on Bermuda surfaces. So it just looks 242 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 3: like an all around week to fade Davis Thompson due 243 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 3: to some bad recent form with the ball striking and 244 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:15,160 Speaker 3: obviously the short game downfalls that we know we can 245 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 3: get from him. 246 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 2: Now, for a deeper cut, you have Zach Blair in 247 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 2: the first rounds in a three ball at plus one 248 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 2: seventy five, and it's interesting because he's missed the cut 249 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 2: multiple times at this course, but overall Strokes gained in 250 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 2: terms of his approach in the last twenty four rounds, 251 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 2: he's been really hot. He also leads the way in 252 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 2: in par three scoring among most of this field. So 253 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 2: when you look at those two elements, you think that's 254 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 2: going to be enough to help him through the first 255 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 2: eighteen holes. 256 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 4: Yeah. 257 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,360 Speaker 3: I was toying around at the beginning of this season, 258 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 3: the new season over in January, end of December, with 259 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 3: a sort of a breakout metric that was kind of 260 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:51,200 Speaker 3: trying to identify guys who were struggling maybe a year 261 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 3: year and a half ago or so, but we're trending forward. 262 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:56,959 Speaker 3: That sort of identified Pierson Cutias who might be breaking 263 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:58,559 Speaker 3: out at the beginning of the year. That turned out 264 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:01,199 Speaker 3: pretty well. Austin Smotherman, same thing over the past few 265 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 3: weeks where I've been backing him, and Zach player is 266 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:05,680 Speaker 3: also not popping in that metric as well due to 267 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 3: some good recent form. Thanks to that Strokes gain t 268 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 3: de Green play in my composite model, he's a top 269 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 3: twenty t Degreen player in that that blended time frame. 270 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 4: So Zach Blair on approach looks pretty good. The approach rumners. 271 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 3: I do think there's probably going to be some noisy 272 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 3: ness there due to obviously some some strong recent play. 273 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 3: He obviously had that strong finish at the Puerto Rico 274 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:31,439 Speaker 3: Open T eight, so obviously weaker field to sort of 275 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 3: take into account there. But nonetheless the T degree numbers 276 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:36,319 Speaker 3: do look pretty good. So Zach Blair is someone I'm 277 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 3: looking to back here. I think plus one seventy five 278 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 3: in this three ball group that I think he has 279 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 3: a pretty significant just talent advantage, but also a strong 280 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 3: recent form advantage compared to a lot of these guys 281 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 3: in this group, with obviously Tom Kim, someone who has 282 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:52,160 Speaker 3: been doing this thing in the TGL, but when we 283 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:54,199 Speaker 3: see him on course here, we've seen some struggles as 284 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 3: of late and Van Ruy, and so I like this 285 00:12:56,360 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 3: plus one seventy five number showing some some pretty solid 286 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:00,800 Speaker 3: value on that round oneball for Blair. 287 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 2: What is marsh known for. Well, obviously college hoops, spring 288 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 2: training baseball as well. We got that on the card. 289 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 2: But it's also the time of the year when you 290 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 2: can get the absolute best deal on Action Pro. 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Before we get to the rest of 306 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:50,719 Speaker 2: the show, let's toss over to Sean Zerillo for a 307 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 2: quick word from our sponsor, draft Games. 308 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 6: The Action Network podcast has teamed up with Draftings sportsbook, 309 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:57,920 Speaker 6: where new customers could bet five dollars and get two 310 00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 6: hundred hours back in bonus bets instantly, love and throw 311 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 6: a live betting. Draftings has got you covered bet live 312 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 6: on star player props and in progress games right as 313 00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:08,360 Speaker 6: they happen. He get started to use promo code action 314 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 6: work when signing up with Draftings. Again, use code action 315 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 6: work when signing up bet five bucks to get two 316 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:15,680 Speaker 6: hundred dollars back in bonus bets instantly. 317 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 2: The crown is yours. Back to the action here, Spencer 318 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 2: talk to me about Alex Smoley, a top twenty placement 319 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:25,600 Speaker 2: bet here at three to one. His odds are obviously 320 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 2: favorable for a top twenty finish because he's missed the 321 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 2: cut in three of the last four years with a 322 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 2: twenty seventh place finish in the middle. So what's popping 323 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 2: out to you and giving you confidence where at least 324 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 2: you know coming into it, he has to from between 325 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 2: the ears perspective, has to feel that he has amounted 326 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 2: to climb just to make the weekend. 327 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 5: Yeah. I talked about this at the beginning part of 328 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 5: the show. Where two of the big categories that I 329 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 5: run every single week it makes up about forty percent 330 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 5: of my statistical grade, will be the weighted strokes gain total, 331 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 5: which I'll get into in a second, and then the 332 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:02,160 Speaker 5: in event correlation. So weighted strokes gain total looks at 333 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 5: a recalculated outlook of how players have performed inside of 334 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 5: the top ten is usually the threshold amount that I 335 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:14,600 Speaker 5: use at this course over the last five years. So 336 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 5: it's gonna take recalculated dispersion marks of strokes gain off 337 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 5: the tee approach around the green putting, and it's gonna 338 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 5: try to pinpoint the golfer that best fits that threshold return. 339 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 5: And so it's trying to find like whether you have 340 00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 5: found success or not found success on this course. And 341 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 5: Kyle and I kind of talked about it at the beginning. 342 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 5: This is not necessarily the most correlated tournament from yearly results, 343 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,360 Speaker 5: so I think I'm willing to throw out some of 344 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 5: those results that we've seen from him in the past. 345 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 5: But Small ended upgrading second from me, and that weighted 346 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 5: strokes gain total output. The in event correlation ends up 347 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 5: taking what players are actually doing throughout the week. So 348 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 5: how are you gaining those strokes, how are you producing 349 00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 5: and how likely are you to continue to produce those 350 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 5: results in round two if you've done it in round one, 351 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 5: in round three, if you've done it in round two, 352 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 5: across the rest of the tournament. There and smally also 353 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 5: popped inside of the top five of my model in 354 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 5: that area, you look at the profile of him and 355 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 5: what he is bringing to this week, like this was 356 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 5: one of the spots. And unfortunately it's not one of 357 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 5: the names that we talked about a lot last week, Michael, 358 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 5: but I had a lot of exposure tim across the board, 359 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 5: had him in a matchup against a McCarthy, had all 360 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 5: the in tournament stuff, ended up losing a round four 361 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 5: matchup against him, to give a little bit back at 362 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 5: the end. But I thought that twenty fourth place finished 363 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 5: from him from a bulsp striking perspective, was very encouraging 364 00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 5: from what we could get this week. And then you know, 365 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 5: putting does matter in and I agree with Kyle on that. 366 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 5: And if you're looking for a hole in the profile, 367 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 5: one hundred and tenth in my model out of one 368 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 5: hundred and thirty players in strokes game putting over his 369 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 5: last twenty four rounds, that's the discouraging mark from this. 370 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 5: But if you extrapolaid out some of the stats on 371 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 5: jis Bermuda on comp green on hard scoring, that for 372 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:06,600 Speaker 5: putting on this like he is a top fringe, top 373 00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:09,720 Speaker 5: thirty putter for me, and I think if we actually 374 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:12,119 Speaker 5: end up getting that sort of an output and putting 375 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,439 Speaker 5: is always such a volatile statistic that I never really 376 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 5: want to take such a bold stance one way or another. 377 00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:21,119 Speaker 5: Like I would rather find the quality ball strikers and 378 00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 5: find these profiles that have the ability to spike at 379 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 5: any given time. And for me, inside of my model, 380 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 5: Smally is spiking in all of the best ways possible. 381 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:32,439 Speaker 5: I would be pushing this bet up the market as 382 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 5: much as possible, whether that's a top ten, a top twenty, 383 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 5: a top five, and outright I have an outright ticket 384 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:40,920 Speaker 5: on him. Also, I would be playing less of this 385 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 5: for safety, kind of for the reasons that you talked about, Michael. 386 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 5: I think that there are there's a lot of volatility 387 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:49,400 Speaker 5: to this profile, but volatility is not a bad thing 388 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 5: when you're shooting for upside in a lot of these markets. 389 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,359 Speaker 2: Now, Kyle, this has been I believe this is the 390 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 2: fourth episode. I'm in the host chair this season, and 391 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 2: I'm always trying to play catch up, figuring out what 392 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,359 Speaker 2: you guys are seeing in your models, putting down my 393 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 2: own notes. But I think I'm onto you here. You 394 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,880 Speaker 2: like Smotherman and you also like Meisner top twenty. They 395 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:09,200 Speaker 2: both want to SMU. That's got to be the connection, right, 396 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:11,600 Speaker 2: there's no other reason to like Smotherman here for a 397 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:13,240 Speaker 2: top twenty at plus three to one. 398 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:18,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, I like Meisner here and Victor Hoblin T ten 399 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:21,960 Speaker 3: at plus one ten. Meisner at plus three hundred for 400 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 3: the top twenty has been the guys I've been backing 401 00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:26,120 Speaker 3: a few times over the past few weeks. He didn't 402 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 3: quite come through at the players. I did end up 403 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:32,119 Speaker 3: putting in a matchup and a three ball play for 404 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:33,919 Speaker 3: round two and he came through on that one. But 405 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:36,920 Speaker 3: in terms of the top end success for an overall tournament, 406 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 3: haven't had a ton of luck betting Meisner yet, but 407 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:41,920 Speaker 3: I do like him once again here. He's been one 408 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:45,200 Speaker 3: of these guys who's been pretty steady at times. Obviously 409 00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 3: he did miss the cut the last two weeks, but 410 00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 3: to back to back top thirty finishes here at this course, 411 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 3: so he's something that I don't mind backing. At plus 412 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 3: three hundred. He was one of the better mid tier grades. 413 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 3: I actually have a lot of guys who are popping 414 00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:00,959 Speaker 3: for longer shot top twenty players that we'll touch on 415 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 3: in the you know the other bets section, But in 416 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 3: terms of a guy who was you know maybe not 417 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:08,120 Speaker 3: necessarily completely off the wall. He was the best top 418 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,359 Speaker 3: twenty value in my model in that mid range then 419 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 3: obviously Victor Hoblind plus one ten one here last season. 420 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 3: But to smuch his point, you know, I do agree 421 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:18,160 Speaker 3: with that completely. This is going to be a course 422 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 3: we're going to see, you know, not a lot of 423 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 3: year over year consistency in terms of you know, backing 424 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:27,119 Speaker 3: course history, but also looking at course comps, Hobland grades 425 00:19:27,119 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 3: out well here. I'm looking at the approach fit indicators. 426 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:34,160 Speaker 3: He looks fantastic here. He's the best on approach from 427 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:36,760 Speaker 3: this you know, very important bucket from one to fifty 428 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 3: to two hundred plus yards where he has the best 429 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 3: proximity in the field, top five in terms of strokes 430 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 3: skin out approach on those shots. So Victor Hoblin top 431 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 3: ten plus one ten and then Macmeiser top twenty eight 432 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,119 Speaker 3: plus three hundred are my two favorite placement wagers this week. 433 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,880 Speaker 2: All right, it's time for some outright spencer. You're going 434 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,400 Speaker 2: with JJ Spawn at forty to one. He looked really 435 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 2: good at the Players Championship. He profiles as a good 436 00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 2: fit for this course. Accurate off to see great short 437 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 2: game stats historically, he's also overperformed on demanding scoring resistant courses. 438 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,360 Speaker 2: What was the threshold for you to get into bed 439 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,680 Speaker 2: with Spawn this week? At forty to one? It's I mean, 440 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:15,919 Speaker 2: you have my attention, but was there a cutoff in 441 00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 2: that thirty to one range? Where does your model kind 442 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:19,479 Speaker 2: of point you in that direction? 443 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:22,439 Speaker 5: I'm fine with him down into the low thirties there. 444 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,480 Speaker 5: If you can find thirty to one or above, I 445 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 5: think he's one of the better upside climbers in this 446 00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 5: tournament within my sheet. And just very quickly before I 447 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 5: give the Spawn answer, I want to talk about mac 448 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 5: Meisner for one second and just backtrack the shew Meiser 449 00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 5: is also a name that I have been on repeatedly. 450 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 5: I have bet him to make the cut the last 451 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 5: two tournaments, and it's very noted that he has missed 452 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 5: the cut in the last two tournaments. The statistical profile 453 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:49,359 Speaker 5: from him continues to look extremely strong. He is across 454 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 5: the board. I'm talking a lot about upside and these 455 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 5: markets and Spawn and Meser fits a lot of those 456 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 5: same threshold requirements of what I'm trying to find there. 457 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:01,359 Speaker 5: If you look at the Cognizant was a top five 458 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 5: recalculated performer on that board when he missed the cut. 459 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,439 Speaker 5: That is so rare in my sheet. That means that 460 00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 5: the short game statistics underachieved by a mark that not 461 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 5: only did not put him into the top five, it 462 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:15,560 Speaker 5: made him miss the cut entirely. And if you look 463 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 5: at what he did last week, double bogie at the 464 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 5: very end there to miss the cut by one that's 465 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,399 Speaker 5: back to back tournaments of missing the cut by one shot. Like, 466 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 5: I am very big on trying to look deeper into 467 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:33,160 Speaker 5: the statistics. I'm never trying to just look at Okay, 468 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 5: a player's miss back to back cuts, their form is 469 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:37,960 Speaker 5: bad right now? Like that, that's not what the Meisner 470 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 5: profiles saying. No, that's a very long winded answer to 471 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 5: kind of double down on Kyle's take there. But I 472 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,600 Speaker 5: really like the Meisner play. I'm gonna keep going down 473 00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,760 Speaker 5: this well until something changes inside my model there. But 474 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,439 Speaker 5: as far as spawn is concerned, this is not a 475 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 5: golfer I have backed at all this year. We have 476 00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:59,120 Speaker 5: seen nothing better than him than a share of fortieth 477 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:02,480 Speaker 5: at the Sony Open. Through five events, he finally marginally 478 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:04,399 Speaker 5: broke out of that slump at the Players He landed 479 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:08,240 Speaker 5: in twenty fourth place. If you go deeper into the stats, 480 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,280 Speaker 5: you all of us start sudden start seeing a lot 481 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:12,200 Speaker 5: of the things that you talked about Michael from a 482 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 5: long term perspective, difficult scoring courses, the ability to produce 483 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 5: over and over again at these tracks. And you look 484 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 5: at the ball striking of what he put together at 485 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 5: TPC Sawgrass, nearly six strokes gain ball striking, almost five 486 00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 5: of those coming with his irons. This is a very 487 00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:35,960 Speaker 5: difficult track in general, in my opinion, to gain strokes 488 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 5: off the keeon. He's a top ten driver of the 489 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 5: ball inside of my model on comp courses. So if 490 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 5: you have a goal for that, my model likes on 491 00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:48,119 Speaker 5: comp courses. The approach play is seeing an optic right now. 492 00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 5: And now you look at this putter. This putter of 493 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 5: his has been detrimental this season, hadn't gained strokes at 494 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,280 Speaker 5: all this year, and then all of a sudden at 495 00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:00,639 Speaker 5: the players we see him gain one point eight zero nine. 496 00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:03,240 Speaker 5: As I said, this was a fade candidate over and 497 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:05,200 Speaker 5: over for me again this year. I have found ways 498 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 5: to fade him correctly in a lot of spots. And 499 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 5: there was a spot at I believe it was whatever 500 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 5: the tournament that would be. It was the one against 501 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:19,680 Speaker 5: Jason Day, I might be the genesis where Day came 502 00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:23,119 Speaker 5: in last and Spawn came second to last. Incorrect fade 503 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 5: there because technically I was on Day. But like that's 504 00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,239 Speaker 5: kind of been the mentality over and over again, and 505 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,800 Speaker 5: in my model, when I see these differences of opinions 506 00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:33,160 Speaker 5: come into play as quickly as it has with Spawn, 507 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:35,919 Speaker 5: I'm going to trust the long term profile here because 508 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,560 Speaker 5: I wasn't trusting him before this. So I think that 509 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:41,399 Speaker 5: I would rather be ahead of the number here and 510 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 5: ahead of what's going to come. And if we do 511 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,159 Speaker 5: see a result, we're probably in similar fields, going to 512 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,479 Speaker 5: get a much lower into that like twenty to one 513 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 5: range moving forward, and he will be unbettable. So I 514 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:52,960 Speaker 5: think here, at thirty to one or higher, you have 515 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 5: value that you can punch a ticket on. 516 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,480 Speaker 2: Kyle. You're bringing a fifty to one and twenty to 517 00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 2: one to the table here. Austin Smotherman, who you've already discussed, 518 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 2: ranks first on tour in Strokes gained on approach one spot. 519 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:08,119 Speaker 2: I had a colin Morikawa and then Akshay Batsia. I 520 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 2: mean he just led the field in ball striking at 521 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 2: the Players Championship last week, according to Golf Digest, which 522 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,680 Speaker 2: is always a strong indicator coming into a demanding ball 523 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 2: striking track like we have here at Copperhead. If you 524 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:21,399 Speaker 2: had to choose between these two, obviously you're going to 525 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 2: play both, But which one did you land on first? 526 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, it looks like we just got news that Batya 527 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 3: Withdrew like while we're live on air? 528 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,400 Speaker 4: Am I seeing that right? Spencers? Is that you guy 529 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 4: as well? 530 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 5: That's what it looks like on my end. I saw 531 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,920 Speaker 5: it just pop up seconds ago that he has pulled 532 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:38,720 Speaker 5: out of this tournament? 533 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,200 Speaker 2: Makes it makes it easier then, so hit the rewind button. 534 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 2: That never happened, everybody. Luckily, you're bringing two to the table. 535 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:46,560 Speaker 2: So let's talk more about Smotherman. 536 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually I have a quick pivot there because 537 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 3: I was actually torn between two guys in the same 538 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:54,120 Speaker 3: nineteen or twenty to one rain. So I'll talk Smellman 539 00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:55,960 Speaker 3: first and then I'll just pivot to my other option there, 540 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 3: but Smillern in fifty to one. 541 00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,160 Speaker 4: Yeah, I feel like I'm quickly. 542 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,680 Speaker 3: Becoming the guys, you know, beating the Smotherman drum here, 543 00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:05,439 Speaker 3: I suppose, But again, I will say this week there 544 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 3: are maybe some potential concerns for Smotherman just based on 545 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:10,359 Speaker 3: the short game stuff. I do think that is going 546 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,040 Speaker 3: to be important this week, and we have seen some 547 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:15,120 Speaker 3: struggles there, but his ted green play has just been 548 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,639 Speaker 3: so phenomenal and I do think that that's going to 549 00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:20,399 Speaker 3: be enough to where if we do get those upside 550 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,200 Speaker 3: weeks on the greens, I think that'll be something that 551 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:27,120 Speaker 3: can certainly leap him into contention. Over the past month 552 00:25:27,200 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 3: or so, we've seen him with the top ten American 553 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,159 Speaker 3: Express while losing strokes on the green. We saw him 554 00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:35,719 Speaker 3: get that T two at the Cognizant last week at 555 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,680 Speaker 3: the Players T thirteen while losing strokes putting and around 556 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,360 Speaker 3: the green. So I think if we get again can 557 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 3: find those those spike weeks on any short game numbers, 558 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:45,879 Speaker 3: we're going to see some success for smother Man, not 559 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 3: only in the top twenty market, but also a chance 560 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,480 Speaker 3: to really break through and win a PGA tournament. So again, 561 00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,399 Speaker 3: he's just someone that looks so good on approach and 562 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 3: off the tee. He actually is a top ten off 563 00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 3: the t fit for me here top five strokes gain 564 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 3: approach over the past twenty four rounds, and he also 565 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,640 Speaker 3: is a top five approach fit for me this week 566 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,520 Speaker 3: as well. So all the ball striking stuff looks great 567 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:10,479 Speaker 3: for smaller man and at fifty to one, more than 568 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 3: happy to, you know, take a stab there and hope 569 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:14,960 Speaker 3: you can find a spike week on the greens. And 570 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,320 Speaker 3: then my Oxy pivots it's gonna be Victor Hobblin here. 571 00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 3: I was actually torn between these two and who I 572 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,320 Speaker 3: wanted to decide on. I think there's a lot of 573 00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 3: interesting no longer shots. There's gonna be some guys in 574 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:25,959 Speaker 3: this thirty to forty range that I like as well. 575 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 3: I'll touch on a little bit, but I was looking 576 00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 3: for one of these top two guys. Just deciding between 577 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,720 Speaker 3: Hollland and Batia. Oxy went and made my decision a 578 00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,199 Speaker 3: little bit easier there. So Victor Holand at nineteen to 579 00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,680 Speaker 3: one will be this secondary pick again. I talked about 580 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 3: him a little bit in the T ten market, so 581 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:42,399 Speaker 3: don't need to touch on it too much more. But 582 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 3: he just looks excellent in this approach fit here where 583 00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 3: I do think that there's gonna be so many shots 584 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 3: coming from that one fifty to two hundred plus range 585 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 3: and he is one of the better players in pretty 586 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,080 Speaker 3: much all metrics, if not the best. He has the 587 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:58,560 Speaker 3: closest proximity in that one undred yard bucket, and he's 588 00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 3: also in the top five in terms of stroke gained 589 00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:02,679 Speaker 3: on those shots. So yeah, give me Victor Hobblin there 590 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 3: as my ox here replacement at nineteen to one. 591 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:07,640 Speaker 2: All right, as has become tradition here on the show, 592 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,359 Speaker 2: we're gonna go lightning round with your other bets here, Kyle, 593 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:14,240 Speaker 2: some golfers we already discussed Rio Zach Blair, but some 594 00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:16,439 Speaker 2: new ones brought to the table here to finish out 595 00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:17,119 Speaker 2: the episode. 596 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, I like Rio in the outright market. 597 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,240 Speaker 3: Thirty nine to one, had a nice top twenty win 598 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:23,639 Speaker 3: on him last week, so I'll back him once again. 599 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:26,439 Speaker 3: You know, when Spencer was talking about his matchup play 600 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,639 Speaker 3: with Rio, that's actually the second best matchup play in 601 00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 3: my model as well, so I can certainly sign off 602 00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:33,359 Speaker 3: on that one. I also like saw hith here at 603 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 3: thirty six to one. Good to see him rounding into 604 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 3: some good form. And then I have you know, three 605 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 3: or four guys in this you know, long shot tier 606 00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,000 Speaker 3: that i'll name. But also I'm personally liking them more 607 00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:45,679 Speaker 3: in the top twenty market. But I do think that 608 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 3: this is a tournament, in an event that we could 609 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,200 Speaker 3: really see maybe some one hundred to one plus plays 610 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:52,159 Speaker 3: have a chance here. 611 00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:53,359 Speaker 4: Already talked to Zach Blair. 612 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:55,760 Speaker 3: He's two hundred and ten to one on the outright 613 00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,000 Speaker 3: plus six fifty for top twenty. Lucas Glover is another 614 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 3: guy who looks really wrong in these approach buckets one 615 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,000 Speaker 3: fifty to two hundred and two hundred plus. He's won 616 00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,679 Speaker 3: twenty five to one and plus four seventy for a 617 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:11,239 Speaker 3: top twenty. And then finally Kevin Roy won ten to 618 00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:13,920 Speaker 3: one on the outright plus five hundred top twenty. He's 619 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 3: someone I think this course is certainly going to be 620 00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,800 Speaker 3: a spot where we're going to need guys to really 621 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,520 Speaker 3: produce on these par fives to part seventy one with 622 00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:23,240 Speaker 3: four par fives, and there's going to be a lot 623 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:27,879 Speaker 3: of interesting approach spots and potential layup situations for these guys. 624 00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:29,760 Speaker 3: But these par fives, they need to take advantage of 625 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,280 Speaker 3: it if they're going to find themselves, you know, consistently 626 00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 3: finding scoring opportunities. Kevin Roy is one of the better 627 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,640 Speaker 3: par five producers in this field, so I liked him 628 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,080 Speaker 3: as a long shot play in that top twenty market 629 00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,600 Speaker 3: and even you know potential, you know, some couch cushion 630 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,120 Speaker 3: money for one ten to one on Kevin Roy. 631 00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 2: Before we get out of here, it's simon to talk 632 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,680 Speaker 2: about the NCAA tournaments and the Big Dance. I think 633 00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 2: it heard everyone chirping that there's no more upsets, there's 634 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:54,800 Speaker 2: no more, no more Cinderella. It hit it up with 635 00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 2: the Jordan meme. It took that personally because in the 636 00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 2: first two games in Dayton, in the play and they 637 00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 2: were electra UNBC misses a three of the buzzer that 638 00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 2: would have sent it to overtime against Howard, and then 639 00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 2: NC State Texas ends on a buzzer beater. You've got 640 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:08,880 Speaker 2: coaches run on the court. Should they call it technical 641 00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:13,200 Speaker 2: or not. It's already absolutely nuts. So everyone clearly loves 642 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:15,040 Speaker 2: to fill out a bracket, but we need to find 643 00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,600 Speaker 2: out who you guys are picking to win the national championship. 644 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 2: And before we do so, a shout out to our sponsor, DraftKings. 645 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,960 Speaker 2: If you are picking a national champion, head on over 646 00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,840 Speaker 2: to DK because they're giving one hundred percent profit boost 647 00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:29,640 Speaker 2: on NCAA tournament winners, So that futures market is as 648 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 2: good as it's going to get across every single sports 649 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:36,080 Speaker 2: book here in the US. So I assume Kyle, you know, 650 00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 2: you've been all over SMU. They're in the playing game. 651 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:40,480 Speaker 2: Maybe they just ride that wave all the way to 652 00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:42,360 Speaker 2: the national championship, or if you have somebody else in 653 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:43,640 Speaker 2: mind to cut down the nuts. 654 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:44,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know. 655 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 3: I'm about fifteen to twenty minutes from ann Arbor. I've 656 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 3: been a Michigan fan my whole life, and I, you know, 657 00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,920 Speaker 3: obviously have the home court bias. I suppose to pick Michigan, 658 00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 3: but I think, you know, just in general, they look 659 00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 3: like one of the more dominant teams in basketball. I 660 00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,760 Speaker 3: think that loss to Purdue in the Big Ten championship game, 661 00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,080 Speaker 3: we'll maybe give them a little bit of extra motivation. 662 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:05,000 Speaker 3: So I'm gonna stick with my hometown team, going with 663 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:06,240 Speaker 3: the Michigan Wolverenes. 664 00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:07,600 Speaker 2: Here, Spencer, where are you going? 665 00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:10,080 Speaker 5: I'm too deep in the weeds for golf to give 666 00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:13,120 Speaker 5: a sophisticated answer here from I will say this, I 667 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:17,120 Speaker 5: always find myself picking Purdue pretty far. I will go 668 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 5: with Perdue on the show, I think you can find 669 00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:21,480 Speaker 5: them at like twenty five to one give her take. 670 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,920 Speaker 2: Big ten heavy. Lots of Southern schools represented on the 671 00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,560 Speaker 2: PGA tour of it. You guys, you know, no interest there, 672 00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,520 Speaker 2: That's fine, I'm going Houston. I'll keep it in. You know, 673 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:32,800 Speaker 2: a version of the South. I think Texas is his 674 00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,680 Speaker 2: own country, doesn't count as the regular South, but Houston 675 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:39,760 Speaker 2: Samson with his defense Kingston Flemings an incredible point guard. 676 00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 2: They're the ones, particularly with one hundred percent profit boost 677 00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 2: from DraftKings. You got to play the kooks, all right. 678 00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 2: That'll do it for today's episode. Thanks for listening to 679 00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,560 Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast. Be sure to check out Action 680 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:51,480 Speaker 2: network dot com and the Action App for all of 681 00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 2: our great golf coverage and DFS content, and even better, 682 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:56,680 Speaker 2: sign up for Action Pro right now. You can get 683 00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,480 Speaker 2: twenty dollars off by using the promo code pod twenty 684 00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,920 Speaker 2: Action Network dot Com Slash Pro. You can find Spencer 685 00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 2: on x at t off Sports and Kyle at k 686 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:11,120 Speaker 2: murr DFS. That's k m U r r dfs. They're 687 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:13,200 Speaker 2: on the same handles on the free award winning Action 688 00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:15,920 Speaker 2: Network app as well. For Spencer Agar and Kyle Murray 689 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,320 Speaker 2: on Mike Calvary's best of luck with all your bets 690 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,400 Speaker 2: this week at the Vals bar, and we'll see you 691 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,959 Speaker 2: at the window. 692 00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 693 00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:38,800 Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 694 00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:41,720 Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 695 00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:42,600 Speaker 2: hundred Gambler