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Speaker 2: She has been a foundation for us in our coverage
Speaker 2: of this war. On a difficult Friday, into her afternoon
Speaker 2: and evening in Dubai, Jaban and Versati joins us now
Speaker 2: with Bloomberg Horizons. Jamana, I am thunderstruck by the message
Speaker 2: spinning in the American media and people covering mar Lago
Speaker 2: in the White House, and to look at the National
Speaker 2: in Dubai with every story being about attack and the
Speaker 2: results of those attacks, led by banner headlines about eight
Speaker 2: being hit by rockets? Is the Persian golf as a
Speaker 2: general statement aware of how surreal the war is across
Speaker 2: so much of America.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, when you use the word thunderstock, I
Speaker 3: thought for a moment you were talking about the storms,
Speaker 3: because that's also on the front page of the National
Speaker 3: Divine the UAE. I've been hit by really strong storms overnight.
Speaker 3: But I think to your point, there definitely is a
Speaker 3: disconnect between what we feel is happening on the ground
Speaker 3: and the skepticism about the possibility of a breakthrough versus
Speaker 3: what is being presented back home. That is for sure,
Speaker 3: with President Trump yesterday sort of reiterating that the talks
Speaker 3: are going well, but the rhetoric coming from Iran doesn't
Speaker 3: suggest So it doesn't really indicate that there are any
Speaker 3: direct negotiations going on or that they've agreed to an
Speaker 3: in person summit, which is what people were talking about
Speaker 3: earlier this week. There are no signs of that happening
Speaker 3: anytime soon.
Speaker 4: So Jamana, I guess one of the uncertainties I guess
Speaker 4: for market participants is we just don't know if any
Speaker 4: conversations are going between the two sides, if there's intermediaries.
Speaker 4: There doesn't seem to be any clear re reporting. What
Speaker 4: do you guys know in that part of the world.
Speaker 3: Okay, So one thing we do know for sure is
Speaker 3: Pakistan are emerging as key mediators here. The Gulf States
Speaker 3: themselves have ruled themselves out as mediators for obvious reasons.
Speaker 3: They're not going to be continued to be attacked and
Speaker 3: at the same time tried to mediate so Pakistan has
Speaker 3: stepped up alongside Egypt and Turkey, and actually the Iranian
Speaker 3: Forum Minister abbas I actually gave an interview yesterday to
Speaker 3: local state TV and he said, yes, the messages from
Speaker 3: the US are being delivered to US via Pakistan, but
Speaker 3: you should not read that as an indication that we're
Speaker 3: willing or wanting to end the war anytime soon. So
Speaker 3: that is coming through from one of the I would say,
Speaker 3: more official political voices in the Iranian regime right now. Again,
Speaker 3: no real signs that they're looking to capitulate, and if anything,
Speaker 3: they seem to be consolidating the control that they have
Speaker 3: of the strait of hormones in the last twenty four hours.
Speaker 5: Jumana.
Speaker 2: Not to be snide or curged, but just let me
Speaker 2: make it short and sweet. Is the United States of
Speaker 2: America in Israel fighting the same war.
Speaker 3: Well, they would say yes, They would say that they
Speaker 3: are militarily aligned, the objectives are aligned. But I think
Speaker 3: there's a key difference here, which is that the Israeli
Speaker 3: public is overwhelmingly behind this war. Our colleagues from the
Speaker 3: Tel Avi Boro Ethan Brunner, will say that around eighty
Speaker 3: percent of the Israeli public is behind it. That is
Speaker 3: not the case in the US. And for as long
Speaker 3: as you continue to see pushing, the push up of
Speaker 3: energy prices, the knock on effects to the US consumer
Speaker 3: potential inflation, you are going to continue to see impact
Speaker 3: on the president's pulling and also the public opinion really
Speaker 3: turning tower on the steal. And we haven't even told
Speaker 3: talked about the potential for ground troops. And there's been
Speaker 3: a lot of reporting that the US are obviously looking
Speaker 3: to deploy more.
Speaker 2: Can we do Bloomberg Horizons right now, Jumana? Can we
Speaker 2: like you know, you be the lead anchor, So, Jumana,
Speaker 2: you're in Dubai and you have the privilege of interviewing
Speaker 2: Anna Wong of Bloomberg Economics. Ladies and gentlemen from Dubai,
Speaker 2: Jumana burset you with doctor Wong here in our studios.
Speaker 5: Take it away, Jumana.
Speaker 3: She's fantastic. I don't know if you're being serious or not,
Speaker 3: but if she is, because I can't see the outpha,
Speaker 3: but she is. I think the big question that everybody
Speaker 3: is asking, Okay, the big question that everyone is asking
Speaker 3: is does the FED actually hike into this inflation shock
Speaker 3: or do they stand put.
Speaker 6: Yeah, we're actually I'm here because there was a huge conference,
Speaker 6: the ten year anniversary its ANTI conference yesterday, and I
Speaker 6: was on the panel Rich Clarita, and we were just
Speaker 6: debating this question. And so you know, typically the the
Speaker 6: FED should be seeing through an oil shock. So in
Speaker 6: the Furbus model that the FED used as a workhorse,
Speaker 6: it would say that a one hundred dollars additional increase
Speaker 6: in the oil price should actually result in a negative
Speaker 6: twelve BIPs of cuts, whereas today, I think the market
Speaker 6: has priced in about positive twelve BIPs of hikes. So
Speaker 6: I think and that's where that's a disconnect between market
Speaker 6: pricing and a model. But I think the market is
Speaker 6: also thinking about all these other shocks aside from oil shocks,
Speaker 6: such as fertilizer shocks, such as computer memory chips shock,
Speaker 6: which personally I'm more concerned about.
Speaker 2: Helped Youvana here, it's one hundred and eleven dollars a
Speaker 2: barrel oil? Is that a new tip point for anamog?
Speaker 6: Yesterday I actually modeled I showed the result of a
Speaker 6: two hundred dollars barrel oil because I think if you
Speaker 6: and and you know, you think about the worst case
Speaker 6: two hundred dollars oil will cause the headline CPI to
Speaker 6: go up to possibly six percent five point five six percent.
Speaker 6: But even if it stays at two hundred dollars, the
Speaker 6: important insight that the year of year will immediately fall
Speaker 6: in twenty twenty seven and by the end of twenty
Speaker 6: twenty seven early twenty twenty eight, it will fall back
Speaker 6: to pre aron. So that's the nature of a transitory shock.
Speaker 5: Jumana.
Speaker 2: Last question, if you didn't fall off your chair there,
Speaker 2: what does two hundred dollars a barrel oil do to
Speaker 2: the Arab world?
Speaker 3: Well, it depends on how long the disruptions around the
Speaker 3: Street of Humus last for. And I think the issue
Speaker 3: is that they're sitting on all of this oil that
Speaker 3: they would like to get out. But they can get
Speaker 3: it out. Obviously, in the case of Saudi Arabia and
Speaker 3: the UAE, they've managed to divert a good sum of it,
Speaker 3: you know, the the East West pipeline in Saudi Arabia.
Speaker 3: One thing I will leave you with though, we were
Speaker 3: looking at the local stock market industry's performance over the
Speaker 3: last month. Tadowell, which is the Saudi stock market is
Speaker 3: actually positive since this war started. It's up four percent
Speaker 3: to account for the fact that oil prices are high. Right,
Speaker 3: That is not the case for the rest of the region,
Speaker 3: which obviously a lot more vulnerable and exposed from a
Speaker 3: non oil perspective.
Speaker 2: Shamana, thank you so much on a Friday I for
Speaker 2: your leadership on all of this Bloomberg horizons in Dubai,
Speaker 2: and please have some sense of a RESTful weekend. Shell
Speaker 2: be out leading our coverage here in the coming days.
Speaker 2: Jaman E present you again in Dubai. We continue with
Speaker 2: Anna one of Bloomberg Economics. Okay, I don't need to
Speaker 2: know what you and Vice Jr. Mcclareda talked about. But
Speaker 2: at Chicago, you look at the Becker Freeman Institute define
Speaker 2: demand destruction right now for Anna Wong. And when I
Speaker 2: look at my Bloomberg launch pad, are we going to
Speaker 2: enjoy demand destruction?
Speaker 7: Yeah?
Speaker 6: So the one big beautiful bill is probably going to
Speaker 6: boost the average household in buying three hundred and fifty
Speaker 6: to eight hundred dollars. And I think about demand destruction
Speaker 6: by how much oil price has to rise in order
Speaker 6: to completely offset this boost that they're supposed to get.
Speaker 6: And my calculation is as long as oil price stays
Speaker 6: above eighty three dollars per barrel, you'll see there that
Speaker 6: And then if you look at the oil futures price,
Speaker 6: it has it's slightly at below eighty three dollars in
Speaker 6: the second half of this year into twenty twenty six.
Speaker 6: So I think that is telling you there's minor demand destruction. However,
Speaker 6: if oil price exceed the oil future curve, which I
Speaker 6: think there's a very good case to say it should be,
Speaker 6: then I think there would be a demand destruction. I
Speaker 6: think that will shave off from GDP a couple percentage
Speaker 6: point from.
Speaker 5: This year inflation.
Speaker 4: You know, we're seeing it at the pump right now,
Speaker 4: it's real, it's tangible, or everybody out there. When we
Speaker 4: see it in the numbers that maybe the FED will
Speaker 4: really start to see it. I know they sent it's
Speaker 4: out there, but they'll see it.
Speaker 6: Yes, they'll see it. And I mean in my simulation
Speaker 6: of a two hundred dollars per barrel oil, I see
Speaker 6: gasoline price going to eight dollars per gallon, and in
Speaker 6: that case, the headline CPI, as I said, we'll go
Speaker 6: to five point five to six percent. But I think
Speaker 6: the scarier thing is something that's more persistent because the
Speaker 6: oil shock will eventually go away. And as our reporter
Speaker 6: just said, there's all this oil stuck in the gulf.
Speaker 6: So what happens when the straight up horn mows is
Speaker 6: partially open? You suddenly see this flood of oil coming?
Speaker 2: Are you talking about a swing to I mean, I've
Speaker 2: heard this from a number of people. Were not there yet,
Speaker 2: but in your uncertainty one of your models is this
Speaker 2: inflation sudden disinflation?
Speaker 6: Right, Yes, it's a risk that you cannot discount certainly.
Speaker 6: What I've also heard is that this war will raise
Speaker 6: the premium, you know, for oil, maybe by twenty dollars
Speaker 6: extra dollar per barrel. So if the fair price before
Speaker 6: before the war sixty five dollars per barrel, then it
Speaker 6: permanently would be at eighty five dollars per barrel. But
Speaker 6: as I said, even if oil price stay elevated at
Speaker 6: that permanently higher level, is the delta that drives inflation, right,
Speaker 6: as long as inflation expectations are anchored, that delta would
Speaker 6: not keep pushing up and you will have a decline
Speaker 6: in your.
Speaker 5: Okay, Paul wants to jump in here, I'm being rude.
Speaker 5: Is the FED down over anchored? Are we like almost
Speaker 5: too fixated unanchored?
Speaker 6: I think the FED is not fixated u anchored, And
Speaker 6: it is because of that lack of confidence that it
Speaker 6: will be anchored. That they are talking about their job
Speaker 6: owning the finance market and they are kind of okay
Speaker 6: with the financial market pricing and twelve BIPs of hikes.
Speaker 4: You know, yesterday I was filling up my car paying
Speaker 4: more and the woman next to me in a pickup truck,
Speaker 4: she has a landscape business. She was filling up like
Speaker 4: six or seven gas cans and I was talking to
Speaker 4: her about it, and she says, this is my profit.
Speaker 5: I just lost my week's.
Speaker 4: Profit right there due to this hiery That was my
Speaker 4: profit for the week on the number of jobs I had.
Speaker 4: When are we going to which was tough to hear,
Speaker 4: But when are.
Speaker 5: You going to see? When will we see that?
Speaker 4: In consumer spending?
Speaker 6: Yeah, So suppose that the one big beautiful bill was
Speaker 6: supposed to give an average consumer an extra three hundred
Speaker 6: and fifty dollars to spend after this tax season, right,
Speaker 6: and the average households spent about two hundred dollars per
Speaker 6: month on gasoline. So if oil price has gasoline prices
Speaker 6: increased by thirty three percent, then you're basically you know,
Speaker 6: you you have to pay about sixty dollars more per month,
Speaker 6: and so three hundred and fifty dollars extra tax for
Speaker 6: fund defined by sixty is the runway. So in maybe
Speaker 6: five to six months.
Speaker 5: I got thirty seconds.
Speaker 2: We got to get you up here because Tucker insists
Speaker 2: on sitting in the chair of the news is so difficult.
Speaker 5: Anahom okay, two hundred dollars. We're all upset here.
Speaker 2: Paul's breaking out the Tito's maintain, what if we only
Speaker 2: go up another twenty dollars, I mean one twenty eight,
Speaker 2: one thirty two a Brent crude barrel.
Speaker 5: I'm sorry, that's not good, right.
Speaker 6: Well, it's still not good. Higher oil price is not good.
Speaker 6: That would be the same as the peak in the
Speaker 6: twenty twenty two peak of the energy crisis. Then, so
Speaker 6: that would be doubling the oil price. And I will
Speaker 6: I think a gasoline price will go up to five
Speaker 6: dollars and in that case, headline CPI will go up
Speaker 6: by one point eight percentage point, so two point four
Speaker 6: pre war plus one point eight. But she's at four
Speaker 6: point two.
Speaker 2: You can bring a bar conversation to Did I do okay?
Speaker 2: Picking Berry King Green as my book of the summer,
Speaker 2: Money and Borders.
Speaker 6: He was my former he was my undergraduate thesis advisor.
Speaker 5: He yeah, so I did okay?
Speaker 2: Yes, I mean people, it's a little it's a little
Speaker 2: more weighty than Rogoff's book last year.
Speaker 5: It's like Berry Iking Green. Serious. But if you're going
Speaker 5: to do the dollar, you go to King Green. Right,
Speaker 5: that's right. So I did okay. Okay, You're dismissed and
Speaker 5: thank you so much. Stay with us more.
Speaker 2: From Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live
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Speaker 5: S SHAW with us.
Speaker 2: Now Chief Clothes Strategy Principal Asset Management SIMA. What does
Speaker 2: the bond market tell equity stock market and participants?
Speaker 7: Yeah, Hi, Tom, it's good to be with you.
Speaker 3: Well.
Speaker 7: I think what we've been seeing in the last couple
Speaker 7: of weeks is that the bond market has been very,
Speaker 7: very concerned about the conflict the potential impact inflation pressures,
Speaker 7: how centromats are going to be responding, Whereas with the
Speaker 7: acuty market, there's ontainly been more of a reaction this week,
Speaker 7: but there has been I think a little bit of complacency.
Speaker 7: So there's something in between the bond market saying this
Speaker 7: is really severe, the actually market has been a little
Speaker 7: bit more muted. We think the reality is somewhere in between.
Speaker 4: So, Asima, how do you what are the conversations you're
Speaker 4: having with your clients these days? Are people pulling in
Speaker 4: risk waiting to see how this plays out, or are
Speaker 4: they trying to look to the other side, look through
Speaker 4: this and try to focus on the fundamentals here. What
Speaker 4: are those conversations.
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's been really interesting. I think generally investors want
Speaker 7: to see how this is going to pan out. You know,
Speaker 7: typically gyboltical crossis they don't have a very sustained significant
Speaker 7: impact on the market. But I think from early days
Speaker 7: investors were more worried about this one, more concerned that
Speaker 7: they could be a more protracted impact. And so certainly
Speaker 7: what we're seeing is that although they're trying to stay
Speaker 7: quite positive and looking at the constructive macro foundations that
Speaker 7: were already in play. There are concerns about trying to
Speaker 7: buy the dip and repositioning off the back of this.
Speaker 7: So I think that this is something of a bit
Speaker 7: of a parallel paralysis across investors, rather than looking at
Speaker 7: it as an opportunity to kind of buy some things
Speaker 7: which are on good offer at the.
Speaker 4: Moment, baseline outlook, how do you kind of frame out
Speaker 4: where this might check out it? I mean, a lot
Speaker 4: of folks are concerned that this oil may in fact
Speaker 4: be higher for longer, It may have an impact on
Speaker 4: economic growth that may have an impact on inflation.
Speaker 2: What's your view?
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's almost impossible to play out how this conflict
Speaker 7: is going to be going on. So I know a
Speaker 7: lot of people have been trying to utilize scenarios. We've
Speaker 7: done the same thing, But I think we are leaning
Speaker 7: towards the idea that, look, this is going to be
Speaker 7: more protracted. We think anti prices are going to stay
Speaker 7: more elevated than people were anticipating, and they're going to
Speaker 7: stay more elevated for a longer time period given the
Speaker 7: impact to in guinefrastructure. The other thing that we're doing
Speaker 7: is we're trying to put a little bit more emphasis
Speaker 7: on the fact that this isn't just about the direct
Speaker 7: energy and all prices, it's all the other goods which
Speaker 7: are going to be impacted by the conflict. So that's helium, words,
Speaker 7: that's sulfur, fertilizer, et cetera. So with that, we are
Speaker 7: downgrading forecasts almost around the world, the US the least,
Speaker 7: obviously because of energy exporter status, but we are seeing
Speaker 7: that now. The thing that we are probably feeling more
Speaker 7: confident about is around the Central Bank forecast and they're
Speaker 7: rather than the leaning on scenarios and that we have
Speaker 7: clearly stated that we're adjusting our forecasts, moving the sight
Speaker 7: to the more hawkish ground. But there is a symmetry
Speaker 7: across a global central bank space.
Speaker 2: What's the value looking at risk, uncertainty, ambiguity and our
Speaker 2: listeners and viewers Seemen can choose whichever of those they're
Speaker 2: looking at, of do nothing? What's the value to Seema
Speaker 2: Shah of do nothing on this Friday?
Speaker 7: Well, I think I mean the value is that there
Speaker 7: is so much noise, even the various posts that we're
Speaker 7: seeing from the President, the responses that we're getting from wrong,
Speaker 7: it's very difficult to understand how this exactly is playing out.
Speaker 7: So trying to make moves on something which is generally
Speaker 7: a lot of noise at the moment is I think
Speaker 7: very difficult. It's very uncertain exactly how this is going
Speaker 7: to play out, which is why we're seeing so many
Speaker 7: investors just sit still and really focusing on the fact
Speaker 7: that there has been macro strength and so once this
Speaker 7: conflict ends, some of the things that will already employ
Speaker 7: the various dynamics that were there will reassert themselves. But
Speaker 7: you know, this is a very very challenging environment for
Speaker 7: investors simply of not knowing how long this is going
Speaker 7: to go on, for how severe it's going to be.
Speaker 2: Past Screenian term Kein of Sema Shaw, we continue now
Speaker 2: with the chief Global strategist Principal Asset Management Sima. What
Speaker 2: will you write about Monday within the study of markets
Speaker 2: in linking them into a global strategy, What's going to
Speaker 2: be your theme to publish for Monday Morning?
Speaker 7: I mean, gosh, it could be anything, but I think
Speaker 7: at the moment it's really about trying to focus on
Speaker 7: whether or not which reagions are the most exposed. We
Speaker 7: already know that the US is looking the most resilient.
Speaker 7: But how long that can can that persist for? And
Speaker 7: what are the vulnerabilities that One of the interesting things
Speaker 7: I think is it coming into this year, there was
Speaker 7: an expectation that US consumers would be quite resilient, particularly
Speaker 7: because of this for stimulus coming through from the One
Speaker 7: Big Beautiful Bill. Now what we're seeing is that the
Speaker 7: gasoline prices increase that's coming through more than offsets some
Speaker 7: of that benefit from the One Big Beautiful Bill. So
Speaker 7: we're trying to understand exactly how vulnerable US consumers are
Speaker 7: this year relative to where we started the twenty twenty
Speaker 7: six SEEMA.
Speaker 4: We see the dollar resuming kind of a safe safe
Speaker 4: haven status, rising from a dxy, rising from a ninety
Speaker 4: six level to today around one hundred. Is that kind
Speaker 4: of does that make sense for you, because boy, that
Speaker 4: wasn't the case during the tariff situation last year when
Speaker 4: people kind of were shedding the dollar.
Speaker 7: I guess I think it has been a little bit
Speaker 7: surprising given them. I think the structural aspects which we're
Speaker 7: pushing DOLLI lower were very much in play, and particularly
Speaker 7: when you consider that this is from a central bank perspective,
Speaker 7: the FED is likely to be the most dubvish, So
Speaker 7: we are expecting that once it comfort ends whatever that is,
Speaker 7: that the dollar reasserts that down which trend that had
Speaker 7: already been in play.
Speaker 5: See we got to let you go.
Speaker 2: But the headline just comes out Paul Sweeney right in
Speaker 2: the headline for Bloomberg nasdeck one underdrops ten percent from
Speaker 2: October high set to enter correction.
Speaker 5: Is there a.
Speaker 2: Sema Shaw fear of missing out when the nasdeck pulls
Speaker 2: back ten.
Speaker 7: I know we don't have. Really, it's really important. You
Speaker 7: asked me before what I've been writing about, and this
Speaker 7: is actually a key thing is that technology has been
Speaker 7: a favorite for investors over the last couple of weeks,
Speaker 7: but there are vulnerabilities within that tech supply chain, which
Speaker 7: I think is starting to feed through to invest his
Speaker 7: perspectives about how to position.
Speaker 2: Seema, Thank you so much, Sema Shaw with us the
Speaker 2: principal asset management, greatly appreciate that.
Speaker 5: Stay with us.
Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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Speaker 2: We are skilled to bring you Bob Michael Global Ahead
Speaker 2: of fixed Income JP Morgan Asset Management the real yield
Speaker 2: out of two point one one percent.
Speaker 5: I haven't done a standard deviation study. When does a
Speaker 5: higher real yield.
Speaker 2: Impinge on the American economy and on industry in America?
Speaker 8: Well, I would argue right now it's already starting to
Speaker 8: have an impact, because it was only a week ago
Speaker 8: that we came out of the FMC meeting expecting a
Speaker 8: couple rate cuts, and you looked at the labor market
Speaker 8: that was their primary concern for good reason, it seemed
Speaker 8: a bit soft. Now you're paying a lot more to
Speaker 8: fill up your automobiles, and if you're a business, your
Speaker 8: input costs or energy's gone up. I would say it's
Speaker 8: having an impact right about now.
Speaker 4: If that is the case, certainly for a lot of
Speaker 4: folks that are starting to feel it. How does the
Speaker 4: FED react to that? There's really not a whole lot
Speaker 4: they can do, is there.
Speaker 8: I think the problem is at these levels there's no
Speaker 8: obvious solution because even ourselves with one hundred dollars oil,
Speaker 8: we don't see recession. We see growth slowing down a
Speaker 8: lot from where we had it, inflation going up a
Speaker 8: little bit. Then they just have to wait and see
Speaker 8: what cracks First. Does the labor market come under a
Speaker 8: lot of pressure and unemployment go up? Or do they
Speaker 8: see energy prices passed through to finish goods and services
Speaker 8: and consumers still buying and demanding wage price spirals.
Speaker 2: David Rosenberg in Toronto publishes moments Ago Rosenberg Research quotes
Speaker 2: still no market panic inequities even with a vis out
Speaker 2: of twenty nine point five three. How do you measure in?
Speaker 2: Is there panic in the Bob Michael world? I mean
Speaker 2: price down, yield up?
Speaker 5: How does it?
Speaker 2: You know?
Speaker 5: Equity panic? How does it work in the bond space.
Speaker 8: It's well, there are also volatility indicators in the bond market,
Speaker 8: and they've actually been muted. So it's been a prizingly
Speaker 8: orderly sell off a little bit at a time. A
Speaker 8: lot of confidence that you have an administration looking for
Speaker 8: an off rapp they'll find one. They watch the markets,
Speaker 8: they know the midterm elections are coming up soon. They
Speaker 8: have to figure out how to extricate themselves from the
Speaker 8: Middle East, and that's what the market's hanging it's hot on.
Speaker 4: So the FED has a little bit of leeway the
Speaker 4: US economy. We are a net exporter of oil. But boy,
Speaker 4: I guess we're all learning how exposed other parts of
Speaker 4: the world are to this pinch in Mid East oil.
Speaker 4: How do you expect other central banks around the world
Speaker 4: to react here?
Speaker 8: It's strange, right, because this all started with us being
Speaker 8: told that twenty percent of oil passes through the Strait
Speaker 8: of Hormuz. So you say, okay, sixty dollars a barrel,
Speaker 8: let's go to seventy two dollars a barrow, maybe a
Speaker 8: little premium in there. You're up at eighty. Not you're
Speaker 8: going right to one hundred and hanging out there and
Speaker 8: expectations I saw one could be two hundred dollars. I
Speaker 8: think that's a bit extreme. I think by the time
Speaker 8: you get to one twenty to one point fifty, you'll
Speaker 8: create a tremendous amount of demand destruction. So it's a
Speaker 8: bit puzzling that you're there. Unlike the FED, which has
Speaker 8: a dual mandate, they have to watch the labor market
Speaker 8: as well as inflation, the ECB and the Bank of
Speaker 8: England have single mandates. They have to watch inflation and
Speaker 8: there's no differentiation between core and headline. All they know
Speaker 8: right now is headlines going up a lot. Hence they're
Speaker 8: talking hawkish. You would expect the ECB to hike grates
Speaker 8: once or twice in here, or watch for the Bank
Speaker 8: of England.
Speaker 5: Who knows you.
Speaker 2: Have a sterling academics which goes back as far as Persian.
Speaker 2: You're working Greek and Latin with all of your academics
Speaker 2: at pen and your work of course driving the bondship
Speaker 2: from mister Diamond. The cultural overlay here of Persian patients.
Speaker 2: What I keep reading and informed articles is these people
Speaker 2: are patient. Is that what you would would you agree
Speaker 2: with that Iran will be patient beyond anything?
Speaker 8: Well, if you look at their position, there's little else
Speaker 8: they can do, a lot of the infrastructure in their
Speaker 8: country has been destroyed, and yet somehow they're able to
Speaker 8: control the global supply of oil by controlling the Strait
Speaker 8: of Hormuz with a fleet of drones, despite all the
Speaker 8: military might of the West. And I think this is
Speaker 8: what the market's starting to get concerned about. The administration
Speaker 8: may want an offramp, but the Iranians don't need to
Speaker 8: give him one.
Speaker 5: Some bym Michael. Thank you so much.
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