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Speaker 3: Israel sends more troops into Gaza. Welcome to the fastest
Speaker 3: show in politics, as Israeli forces also conductor raid in
Speaker 3: the West Bank and another airstrike in Syria as the
Speaker 3: war with Hamas enters a new phase. We're joined by
Speaker 3: Brett Brewin, former US diplomat now President of the Global
Speaker 3: Situation Room for the latest on this speaker, Mike Johnson
Speaker 3: says he will bring Israeli funding as a standalone bill
Speaker 3: to the House floor this week. And the latest polling
Speaker 3: from Iowa shows Nicki Hayley on the ascent in a
Speaker 3: field that no longer includes Mike Pence. Analysis today from
Speaker 3: our panel Bloomberg Politics contributor Republican strategist Rick Davis, joined
Speaker 3: by Alvin Jordan, Vice president at Rock Solutions Democratic Strategy.
Speaker 3: We've got a lot to cover on this Monday, Let's
Speaker 3: get to it. Welcome to Monday, the Monday edition of
Speaker 3: Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where again
Speaker 3: we're painting out of several buckets today and we'll bring
Speaker 3: you the latest on Israel, on the new Republican speaker,
Speaker 3: and the agenda ahead for the House. No one in
Speaker 3: town right now. Lawmakers don't come back until Wednesday, as
Speaker 3: a matter of fact, and of course the campaign trail
Speaker 3: with new numbers today following Mike Pence dropping out of
Speaker 3: the race over the weekend. So let's get to it.
Speaker 3: We begin in Israel as we prepare to bring in
Speaker 3: Brett Bruin. More Israeli forces have entered Gaza this headline
Speaker 3: crossing the terminal ten fifty five am local time. More
Speaker 3: forces rolling into Gaza, with the invasion advancing gradually and
Speaker 3: according to plan, according to spokesman Daniel Hagari, who says
Speaker 3: now two hundred and thirty nine people are thought to
Speaker 3: be held by Hamas. John Kirby, speaking for the National
Speaker 3: Defense Apparatus at the White House earlier today on ABC's
Speaker 3: Good Morning.
Speaker 4: America, the situation in Gaza is very perilous, which is
Speaker 4: why the President spoke to Prime Minister NETANYAHUO yesterday to
Speaker 4: make sure we can continue to accelerate that flow and
Speaker 4: increase that flow of humanitarian goods.
Speaker 3: The latest though on the terminal, Army says captive soldier
Speaker 3: freed in ground fight. This is brand new, Israel says,
Speaker 3: a female soldier held captive in Gaza was freed as
Speaker 3: the army extends ground operations in the territory. But of
Speaker 3: course we saw a lot happen over the weekend. We
Speaker 3: saw Israel conduct arraid in the West Bank. We saw
Speaker 3: another air strike in Syria. We also saw skirmishes to
Speaker 3: the north where there are great fears that a second
Speaker 3: front could be opening. And that's where we begin our
Speaker 3: conversation with Bret Bruin, the president of the Global Situation Room,
Speaker 3: former US diplomat, back with us here on Bloomberg. Brett,
Speaker 3: it's great to see you. This is the new phase
Speaker 3: as announced by Israel, and there's a lot of pressure,
Speaker 3: of course, coming upon Israel to spare the lives of
Speaker 3: Palestinian civilians. How is this going so far? How effective
Speaker 3: has this operation been?
Speaker 5: Well?
Speaker 6: Look, obviously news of the release of this Israeli soldier
Speaker 6: is encouraging and obviously will bolster Prime Minister net Nyahu
Speaker 6: and his efforts to expeditiously undertake an operation, and it's
Speaker 6: one Joe. I think it's important for listeners to take
Speaker 6: account of the fact that after nine to eleven, after
Speaker 6: the rise of ISIS in Iraq, there was no talk
Speaker 6: of a cease fire. There was no notion that a
Speaker 6: terrorist organization was going to be able to abide by
Speaker 6: those terms, or quite frankly, that we would be any
Speaker 6: better off, any safer in pursuing one. So Israel sees
Speaker 6: the situation through that lens, and it's an understandable one
Speaker 6: after having suffered the most significant terrorist attack on its
Speaker 6: soil since the founding of the Jewish State. So it
Speaker 6: obviously is a very difficult endeavor, and one that because
Speaker 6: of how Hamas has ensconced itself in and amongst civilians, obviously,
Speaker 6: you know these operations will have as a result a number,
Speaker 6: a high number of civilian casualties.
Speaker 3: AMAS says eight thousand, three hundred and six Palestinians have
Speaker 3: been killed since the seventh of October. Authorities in Gaza
Speaker 3: say more than three thousand of them children. Brett, This
Speaker 3: is a very difficult narrative here for an operation that's
Speaker 3: still widening to what extent Israel in fact trying to
Speaker 3: spare civilians' lives. We know we're talking about dense urban
Speaker 3: warfare and a pretty tall order for Israeli troops who
Speaker 3: are being sent into harm's way as well.
Speaker 6: And obviously those numbers are truly tragic and ones that
Speaker 6: speak to just how difficult these operations have been will
Speaker 6: be going forward. And yet obviously it is part of,
Speaker 6: unfortunately the kind of military operation that Hamas initiated. Hamas
Speaker 6: chose to reinitiate its attacks on Israel, and that led
Speaker 6: to the death of fourteen hundred civilians, capture, as you
Speaker 6: mentioned earlier, of two hundred and fifty odd civilians as
Speaker 6: well as soldiers. All of that creates what he is,
Speaker 6: without question, an extraordinarily difficult and dangerous situation. And it's
Speaker 6: why I think it's important that not only the US,
Speaker 6: but particularly regional partner are pressured to do more. You
Speaker 6: have to ask questions, For instance, why has Egypt made
Speaker 6: it so difficult to get humanitarian aid in let alone
Speaker 6: allowing gozens out. You have to wonder why there have
Speaker 6: not been more efforts by the likes of Saudi Arabia Kutar,
Speaker 6: as well as other Golf states and close US partners
Speaker 6: to try and pressure on both sides that there are
Speaker 6: fewer rocket attacks, that there is a commitment to swearing
Speaker 6: off the kinds of brutal tactics that were used in
Speaker 6: these attacks by Hamas.
Speaker 7: So I think there is.
Speaker 6: Obviously, as we often discussed, diplomacy has to be central
Speaker 6: to these efforts. Obviously the military operations are underway and
Speaker 6: will continue, but ultimately the solution is one that runs
Speaker 6: through diplomatic efforts.
Speaker 3: Is it really a realistic conversation though, Brett to be
Speaker 3: talking about sparing civilian in life when we're seeing the
Speaker 3: use of bunker busting bombs to try to get to
Speaker 3: these tunnels underneath Gaza, there are buildings on top of
Speaker 3: those tunnels, and when you start getting into civilians as
Speaker 3: human shields. The stated goal is to eliminate Hamas. Can
Speaker 3: you eliminate Hamas without killing scores more civilians?
Speaker 7: Well?
Speaker 6: I think first the initial phase of the Israeli operation
Speaker 6: did unfortunately involve quite a number of air results. It's
Speaker 6: the same tactics that the US that our allies use,
Speaker 6: whether it was in Israel, Afghanistan, or in other places
Speaker 6: where ahead of sending in your troops you're going to
Speaker 6: want to take out some of those command and control points,
Speaker 6: some of those rocket batteries and other high value military targets.
Speaker 6: And yes, the images coming out of Gaza are absolutely
Speaker 6: horrific and we shouldn't lose sight of that.
Speaker 7: And we should as I think we.
Speaker 6: Have heard over the last several days and the last
Speaker 6: couple of weeks efforts by the Biden administration by other
Speaker 6: world leaders to impress upon Israel the importance of doing
Speaker 6: everything possible to limit civilian casualties, and I think we've
Speaker 6: seen some results to that, whether it was delaying in
Speaker 6: that initial invasion or in just the last couple of
Speaker 6: days restoration of telephone internet service into Gaza as well.
Speaker 3: I'm sure saw images from this airport in Russia over
Speaker 3: the weekend Brett Maka Kala, if I'm saying it right,
Speaker 3: capital of Dagistan, where a mob went on a rampage
Speaker 3: after a Red Wings plane from Tel Aviv arrived. There
Speaker 3: are images and video of crowd running through the airport
Speaker 3: chanting a la akbar, looking for Jews, trying to get
Speaker 3: onto the engine. Somebody got onto the wing of the airplane.
Speaker 3: They had to shut the entire airport down, and we
Speaker 3: have further news on this today Brett that Vladimir Putin
Speaker 3: is meeting with top government officials to address these anti
Speaker 3: Semitic protests in what we should notice a predominantly Muslim
Speaker 3: region of the country. John Kirby spoke about this earlier
Speaker 3: today on ABC. Here's what he said.
Speaker 4: It's certainly worrisome footage to see that all that hatred
Speaker 4: and potential violence against the Jewish passengers on an airplane.
Speaker 4: I mean, it's absolutely unacceptable, and I mean, these are
Speaker 4: two entities, Russia and AMAS, that want to white neighboring
Speaker 4: countries off the map.
Speaker 8: So that's it's very concerning.
Speaker 4: I don't know that there was any, you know, high
Speaker 4: level endorsement of that activity, but it's definitely definitely worrisome.
Speaker 3: He's referring to a meeting with Hamas that Vladimir Putin had,
Speaker 3: and I just wonder what you can tell us about
Speaker 3: all of this bread Obviously, this was chilling to see
Speaker 3: and something that we wouldn't have thought necessarily would have
Speaker 3: involved Vladimir Putin to the extent that it does here.
Speaker 3: But how concerned are you about what happened over the
Speaker 3: weekend in Russia?
Speaker 6: Absolutely was chilling and brought back echoes of the stories
Speaker 6: I used to hear from my grandparents who left Russia,
Speaker 6: Eastern Ukraine and Moldova at the time because of pagrums,
Speaker 6: those attacks that took place against Jews in various villages
Speaker 6: across Russia and neighboring countries. So this ought to set
Speaker 6: off alarm bells in capitals around the world. It ought
Speaker 6: to joe, I think, especially here in the US, where
Speaker 6: some of the rhetoric used by politicians on both sides
Speaker 6: of the Isle, whether it's in describing Israel's actions, whether
Speaker 6: it's in describing what Israel or the United States should do,
Speaker 6: need to be much much more careful. The language that
Speaker 6: I've seen in just the last couple of weeks in
Speaker 6: public statements and interviews as well as social tweets, is
Speaker 6: adding more fuel to this fire, is exacerbating and quite frankly,
Speaker 6: is endangering Americans with some of the suggestions like Vivekarswami
Speaker 6: Ramaswami over the weekend, who suggested what ought to be
Speaker 6: done and I'm not going to repeat it to Hamas soldiers,
Speaker 6: these kinds of very vicious, very just extreme descriptions of
Speaker 6: the situation. Quite frankly, inaccurate descriptions or ill considered descriptions
Speaker 6: are exacerbating the conditions and are a leading to the
Speaker 6: kind of mass hysteria that played out yesterday at that
Speaker 6: Russian airport.
Speaker 3: Yeah, mass hysteria is another good way of putting it.
Speaker 3: And this comes against the backdrop of calls for Benjamin
Speaker 3: Attania whose resignation Brett, while you're still with us, I
Speaker 3: wonder if you could speak to this as he is
Speaker 3: now apologizing for blaming security chiefs in a tweet that
Speaker 3: was then deleted. It's kind of a long story here,
Speaker 3: but he doesn't seem to be keeping the people of
Speaker 3: Israel with him. As I look at the Jerusalem Post,
Speaker 3: four of five Jewish Israelis believe the government and Prime
Speaker 3: Minister Netanya who are to blame for the mass infiltration
Speaker 3: of Hamas terrorists into Israel. How much trouble is he in?
Speaker 9: Oh?
Speaker 6: Without question, there will be a high political price to
Speaker 6: pay for what obviously details still to be forthcoming, but
Speaker 6: completely inacceptable, unacceptable that Hamas fighters could get into Israel.
Speaker 6: And ultimately the buck has to stop with that Yahoo
Speaker 6: at some point, through these investigations and ultimately a determination
Speaker 6: of accountability. I think both he as well as perhaps
Speaker 6: some of his cabinet members will be ushered out, and
Speaker 6: hopefully Israel is able to put forward a government that
Speaker 6: is going to both address the current crisis. But let's
Speaker 6: not forget, Joe, there are a lot of issues when
Speaker 6: it comes to settler activity, when it comes to the
Speaker 6: judicial reform that Netnyahu was pursuing beforehand, which have obviously
Speaker 6: created a very fragile foundation for democracy and for peace
Speaker 6: and stability in Israel.
Speaker 3: Brett, it's good to see you. Thanks for starting your
Speaker 3: week with us Brett Ruin of course, at the Global
Speaker 3: Situation Room here on Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe, Matthew
Speaker 3: and Washington. As we assemble our panel today, Rick Davis
Speaker 3: is with US Bloomberg Politics contributor Republican Strategist, joined by
Speaker 3: Democratic analyst Alvin Jordan, vice president at Rock Solutions. We'll
Speaker 3: have plenty of time to dive into this, though, Rick,
Speaker 3: I wonder your thoughts on what you saw over the
Speaker 3: weekend with the minute or so time that we have.
Speaker 3: Is this next phase just the tip of the iceberg?
Speaker 3: Or is this the ground invasion you were waiting for?
Speaker 10: Well, I think this is a ground invasion we were anticipating,
Speaker 10: but I'm not sure it represents just the next phase.
Speaker 10: I mean, this is such a multi phase.
Speaker 8: Attack plan that the Israelis have, and I.
Speaker 10: Would say that we have to give them time to
Speaker 10: really formulate that plan and let it see what happens
Speaker 10: when it hits the ground, what kind of opposition you'll get,
Speaker 10: whether or not they're successful with negotiating through the Kataris
Speaker 10: to get hostages at back.
Speaker 8: I mean, this is a multi stage.
Speaker 10: Effort, and I think that the ground forces being there,
Speaker 10: rolling up terrace elements within the Hamas organization is just
Speaker 10: one aspect of that.
Speaker 3: We'll have the deep dive next with our panel, not
Speaker 3: only what's happening on the ground in Israel, but here
Speaker 3: in Washington. Whether a request for funding will be taken
Speaker 3: up by the House this week, the new speaker talking
Speaker 3: about it over the weekend. That'll be Israel funding alone. However,
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
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Speaker 3: The new Speaker of the House says he stands ready
Speaker 3: to pass aid for Israel as soon as this week.
Speaker 3: In fact, it looks like there will be a vote
Speaker 3: come Thursday. That's the reporting at Bloomberg. Mike Johnson speaking
Speaker 3: with Fox over the weekend, remembering that the supplemental request
Speaker 3: that came from the White House included funding for Israel,
Speaker 3: for Ukraine sixty billion dollars worth, also for Taiwan, and
Speaker 3: then the rest for border security. That's the way the
Speaker 3: Senate is tackling this, apparently not this Republican Ledhouse. Here's
Speaker 3: the new speaker.
Speaker 13: Well, listen, we're going to move a standalone Israel funding
Speaker 13: bill this week in the House. I know our colleagues
Speaker 13: are Republican. Colleagues in the Senate have a similar measure.
Speaker 13: We believe that that is a pressing and urgent need.
Speaker 13: There are lots of things going on around the world
Speaker 13: that we have to address, and we will, but right now,
Speaker 13: what's happening in Israel takes the immediate attention.
Speaker 3: All right, let's get into this with our panel as
Speaker 3: the ground assaults in Israel enters a new phase, something
Speaker 3: we were just discussing with Brett Ruin. Rick Davis joins,
Speaker 3: of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor Republican Strategist today with Democratic
Speaker 3: analyst Alvin Jordan at Rock Solutions. Alvin, it's great to
Speaker 3: have you back. Thanks for joining the conversation. What's going
Speaker 3: to happen here? If the House decides to tackle Israel
Speaker 3: funding alone, knowing that the Senate and the White House
Speaker 3: see this differently, isn't this kind of inevitable how this
Speaker 3: is going to go? It'll slow things down until the
Speaker 3: combined bill actually becomes law at some point, or are
Speaker 3: these going to go one at a time, each cause
Speaker 3: gets its own piece of legislation.
Speaker 7: I think the hope truly is to have these go
Speaker 7: one at a time.
Speaker 14: And I think that the you know, news speaker correctly
Speaker 14: points out that by prioritizing the immediate need in this
Speaker 14: particular instance, that the turmoil in Israel I think demands
Speaker 14: is a you know, great place and a clear point
Speaker 14: of view. I think as far as you know, looking
Speaker 14: at the situation as it stands, and I think we
Speaker 14: would all hope that as opposed to kind of backlogging
Speaker 14: and jamming this up a bit more, that this would
Speaker 14: free it up and just kind of set the basis
Speaker 14: for an understanding that we kind of have to tackle,
Speaker 14: you know, kind of one bite at the elephant at
Speaker 14: at a time.
Speaker 3: Rick, It's not lost on us that Mitch McConnell is
Speaker 3: appearing today Louisville with Oksana Markarova, the Ukrainian Ambassador of
Speaker 3: the US, who is no stranger to American media. This
Speaker 3: new speaker is going to have a real issue with
Speaker 3: the Republican leader in the Senate, isn't he.
Speaker 10: Yeah, he's got an issue, you know, with the approach
Speaker 10: that Speaker Johnson's taking by taking these one by one.
Speaker 10: But he's also got a problem with his own Senate
Speaker 10: Republican caucus. Just recently, jd Vance, Mike Lee, Ted Cruz
Speaker 10: from Texas, they all indicated a willingness to move forward
Speaker 10: right away with an Israeli bill to fund that supplemental
Speaker 10: request and to do it on an independent basis.
Speaker 8: So, in addition to problems.
Speaker 10: He's got in the House of Representatives moving forward on
Speaker 10: a standalone basis with israel funding, he's got a sort
Speaker 10: of back effort in the Senate that he has to
Speaker 10: stall in order to just make sure his own caucus
Speaker 10: is on his side.
Speaker 3: Well, you do wonder how this is going to come together,
Speaker 3: and if Ukrainian funding reaches the sixty billion or so
Speaker 3: that the President is looking for, much of that's going
Speaker 3: to be spent domestically. Alvin, and I wonder if you
Speaker 3: see the messaging coming out of the White House as
Speaker 3: being effective here when you hear not another dollar for
Speaker 3: Ukraine from some on Capitol Hill, They're not thinking about
Speaker 3: our own munitions here, our own stockpiles, and our own
Speaker 3: work with American defense contractors. Do you agree?
Speaker 14: I think the important part to remember here is, you know,
Speaker 14: just taking a step back, are you know, kind of
Speaker 14: new speaker has already shown the ability to unite what
Speaker 14: seemingly seems to be a kind of divided group, And
Speaker 14: so I think you have to kind of look at
Speaker 14: the statements from the administration and from the President kind
Speaker 14: of with that same lens as if it is very
Speaker 14: clear where the administration and where the president president wants
Speaker 14: this to go from a funding standpoint. But we really,
Speaker 14: I think, have to do the work in prioritizing what exactly.
Speaker 7: That means considering just.
Speaker 14: The amount of not just funding that we've already sent
Speaker 14: out out of the door, but just considering the turmoil
Speaker 14: that the world is in and the amount of assistance
Speaker 14: that will be needed. I think anything hasty that kind
Speaker 14: of overlooks that true point is just, you know, not
Speaker 14: in the in the best interest holistically, you know, at
Speaker 14: this given time.
Speaker 3: Well, when you take a look at some of the
Speaker 3: other items facing the new Speaker as soon as this week,
Speaker 3: it looks like an interesting party here, Rick. It also
Speaker 3: includes not just an effort to fund the government with
Speaker 3: a shutdown looming on November seventeenth, and we can talk
Speaker 3: about that, of course, but three privileged resolutions, one to
Speaker 3: expel George Santos, two others to censure members Marjorie Taylor
Speaker 3: Green and Representative to Lee, who I realize is not
Speaker 3: a Republican in this case. But the Speaker still has
Speaker 3: to herd cats in this House of Representatives. Should all
Speaker 3: of these come to the floor, and what happens when
Speaker 3: they do?
Speaker 10: Yeah, no, Look, I mean these are most of the
Speaker 10: junk resolutions. They're not going to pass. They'll get scheduled
Speaker 10: in due course by the Rules Committee. And they'll come
Speaker 10: up in regular business. So I don't think those things
Speaker 10: are going to sort of slow him down. And I
Speaker 10: would be shocked if he took any of his time
Speaker 10: and prestiges the brand new Speaker of the House to
Speaker 10: even address them much publicly, right, I mean, they are
Speaker 10: these are sort of leftovers, you know, from a period
Speaker 10: of time that he's trying to avoid, which is sort
Speaker 10: of the Balkanization of both parties fighting with each other
Speaker 10: internally and then taking those fights out, you know, on
Speaker 10: the floor of the on the floor of the House.
Speaker 10: So he's got his work cut out for him to
Speaker 10: be able to accomplish this. But every indication I've got
Speaker 10: from his his allies on Capitol Hill is that he's
Speaker 10: going to resist as much as he can these kinds
Speaker 10: of public stunts and try to get some of the
Speaker 10: business done, knowing that you know, as you say, Joe,
Speaker 10: we've got to fund the government. We've got to fund Ukraine,
Speaker 10: We've got a fund Israel, we've got to fund the
Speaker 10: border problems.
Speaker 8: There's a real need.
Speaker 10: To act in the House to catch up to where
Speaker 10: the Senate is on these appropriations bills. I mean, he's
Speaker 10: got other things to worry about that actually have real
Speaker 10: upside for the country.
Speaker 3: You know, there's a Congressman from Ohio named Max Miller.
Speaker 3: He wants to change the threshold on the motion to vacate.
Speaker 3: This is, of course, how Kevin McCarthy got fired, and
Speaker 3: it's still technically hanging over the speaker here to force
Speaker 3: one hundred and twelve members in this case of the
Speaker 3: majority or minority to sign onto the resolution to fire
Speaker 3: a speaker of the House. Does that need to happen? Alvin?
Speaker 3: Will it happen?
Speaker 7: I hope it doesn't happen.
Speaker 14: I think, just as we've seen just up until this point,
Speaker 14: just how much this really just muddies the waters and
Speaker 14: just gives a larger barrier, you know, to injury. As
Speaker 14: far as allowing the speaker to do their job, I think,
Speaker 14: you know, more than anything right now, you know, kind
Speaker 14: of the collaboration and the work across the aisle just
Speaker 14: really matters more than anything. And I think given any
Speaker 14: kind of you know, credence or just look back to
Speaker 14: to these types of things, I think just slows the process.
Speaker 14: So you would like for you know, for us to
Speaker 14: find ourselves in a place where this isn't something that
Speaker 14: continues to kind of become that dark cloud over the speakership,
Speaker 14: if you will.
Speaker 3: I think he wants to make it more difficult though,
Speaker 3: and actually raise the threshold. Is that something you'd support
Speaker 3: to give the speaker a slightly easier ride here?
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean in that way. Sure.
Speaker 14: I just think that up until this point we really
Speaker 14: need to I mean we're talking about you know, funding
Speaker 14: and sending money out of the door and just you know,
Speaker 14: finding ourselves in a place where we're working collaborative, collaboratively,
Speaker 14: and so I just think that in this particular instance, sure,
Speaker 14: you know, making it a hearder threshold is fine, but
Speaker 14: we really need to kind of, you know, pass this
Speaker 14: topic of discussion which seems to keep creeping back up
Speaker 14: into discussion.
Speaker 3: Well what do you do, then, Rick, do you raise
Speaker 3: the threshold or get rid of it all together?
Speaker 10: Well, you can't get rid of it all together, but
Speaker 10: there are mechanisms to make it more difficult, if not
Speaker 10: downright unfeasible, And and and again they probably ought to
Speaker 10: do that. They should have done it the day Johnson
Speaker 10: got elected. Every day that goes by, guys like Matt
Speaker 10: Gaets get a little bit more oxygen.
Speaker 8: I mean he's been chastised, right.
Speaker 10: I mean, here's one guy who was more desperate to
Speaker 10: get a speaker elected than anybody else because he was
Speaker 10: to blame for three and a half weeks of complete,
Speaker 10: you know, misfunctioned malfunction, lack of function of the House
Speaker 10: of Representatives. I mean, that's a heck of a burden
Speaker 10: to carry around with you for the balance your term.
Speaker 8: So I suspect that.
Speaker 10: There's nobody who's really keen to exercise a motion of
Speaker 10: vacate right now, and so they ought to just clean
Speaker 10: that up. But again, you know, I don't think there's
Speaker 10: any there there right now. I think between now and
Speaker 10: the end of the year, you know, they've got so
Speaker 10: much business to do that there is a sense, as
Speaker 10: Alvin said, of a new spree of corps to get
Speaker 10: things done a little bit of by partisanship hopefully, And
Speaker 10: I think it'll be mostly tested by this Ukraine resolution.
Speaker 10: Will the Speaker put a Ukraine resolution on the floor
Speaker 10: without a majority of the Republicans supporting it, because it'll
Speaker 10: pass overwhelmingly with almost the entire Democratic caucus backing it.
Speaker 10: But will we allow a bipartisan solution?
Speaker 3: We will find out. Rick Davis, Alvin Jordan. Great panel,
Speaker 3: they stayed with us. As we turn to the campaign
Speaker 3: trail next, new numbers from IOWA and Selzer's latest just out,
Speaker 3: and of course it's all about number two. We'll have
Speaker 3: a lot more on that ahead.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 3: Prime Minister Benjamin Netan Yahoo just wrapped up a news
Speaker 3: conference in Israel, generating a couple of headlines on the
Speaker 3: terminal for starters and not a surprise. He says he
Speaker 3: will not agree to any cease fire with Hamas and
Speaker 3: getting to one of the issues we were speaking to earlier,
Speaker 3: calls for his resignation after over the weekend apologizing for
Speaker 3: blaming Israeli military and intelligence officials for the Hamas terror
Speaker 3: attack and missing the cues that might have led to it.
Speaker 3: Dismissing calls for his resignation as Prime minister officially, he
Speaker 3: says he is working for Hamas to resign. I'm Joe
Speaker 3: Matthew in Washington. Thanks for being with us on Bloomberg's
Speaker 3: sound on the war with Hamas was a huge issue
Speaker 3: over the weekend in Las Vegas, as the Republican candidate
Speaker 3: spoke to the RJC, the Republican Jewish Coalition, Nicki Haley
Speaker 3: among others speaking to the crowd. Donald Trump was there.
Speaker 3: He said he would reinstate the Muslim ban if re elected.
Speaker 3: Nicki Haley went after the former president for his remarks
Speaker 3: recently about Benjamin Ettanya Who and Hamas.
Speaker 9: While the polls are notable, principles matter a lot more.
Speaker 15: As president, I will not compliment Hesbla.
Speaker 9: Nor will I criticize Israel's prime minister in the middle
Speaker 9: of a tragedy in.
Speaker 3: War not exactly a standing ovation, but she wasn't booed
Speaker 3: for it either. As we reassemble our panel, Rick Davis
Speaker 3: and Alvin Jordan Rick, of course, Republican strategist, Alvin Democratic
Speaker 3: analyst from Rock Solutions. This is a must stop, Rick,
Speaker 3: obviously when you're speaking to the arch They each took
Speaker 3: their own path here, and of course Mike Pence made
Speaker 3: some news dropping out of the race, and that really
Speaker 3: kind of became the headline for the campaign over the weekend.
Speaker 3: I don't know, if you were expecting the former vice
Speaker 3: president to be the next one to drop here. But
Speaker 3: how important is that for this whole conversation that we're having.
Speaker 3: Other than former President Trump and Nikki Haley, he was
Speaker 3: the only one with direct foreign policy experience on that stage.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think it's you know, it's important to note that,
Speaker 10: You're right. I mean, he had incredible foreign policy chops.
Speaker 10: You know, the four years he spent with President Trump,
Speaker 10: he was all over the world developing these relationships, and
Speaker 10: he just wasn't able to gain traction in Iowa, a
Speaker 10: very key state, especially for midwesterner like himself. And I
Speaker 10: thought it was actually very impressive that he took the
Speaker 10: RJC conference to announce that he was suspending his campaign,
Speaker 10: because that would have been a group that I think,
Speaker 10: you know, probably would have been more supportive of Vice
Speaker 10: President Pence than most of the Republican crowds you have,
Speaker 10: especially during a crisis like this, and especially due to
Speaker 10: the fact that he was such a strong supporter of
Speaker 10: Israel throughout his political career, but especially as vice president,
Speaker 10: so all that lined up perfectly for him. I think
Speaker 10: that it does put more focus onto Nikki Haley, one
Speaker 10: of the very few other Republicans besides the President himself,
Speaker 10: who have actionable foreign policy experience, and she's been willing
Speaker 10: to make it a case for that on the campaign trail,
Speaker 10: even before the war broke out in Israel. So she's
Speaker 10: she got to that trough first. Obviously the president has
Speaker 10: made President Trump has made many missteps along the way,
Speaker 10: especially related to this current fight in for Gaza and
Speaker 10: against Hamas, and so yeah, advantage Nicki Hayley consolidation is
Speaker 10: important to her. Getting the spotlight on her commander in
Speaker 10: chief credentials is important to her, and showing a true
Speaker 10: contrast with the president, as she did in her speech
Speaker 10: at DRJC, was I think a really good weekend for her.
Speaker 3: Well, she certainly has a good showing in this and
Speaker 3: Selzer poll. This is NBC news. Des Moines register shows
Speaker 3: Donald Trump dominating the field. That's not news. He's leading
Speaker 3: everyone by nearly thirty percent, but Nicky Haley rising into
Speaker 3: second place to ty Ron de Santis at sixteen percent,
Speaker 3: tied at second. Reminding you that in August, Nicky Haley
Speaker 3: was at six percent in this poll, Ron DeSantis was
Speaker 3: at nineteen percent, and so Alvin when this really starts
Speaker 3: to be looking like a second place coalescing around Nicky Haley.
Speaker 3: Is that not Joe Biden's great worry right now? He
Speaker 3: wants to run a against Donald Trump. Does a Republican
Speaker 3: nominee named former ambassador, former governor Nicki Haley keep him
Speaker 3: up at night?
Speaker 7: I think it absolutely has to keep him up at night.
Speaker 14: I think any you know, formidable politician with as you mentioned,
Speaker 14: kind of the chops to match and the resume to
Speaker 14: match is exactly you know what the Democrats and Joe
Speaker 14: Biden just don't want to see.
Speaker 7: I know we've kind of, you know, joked.
Speaker 14: In in our back and forth that this was, you know,
Speaker 14: has been at least a race to second place. But
Speaker 14: I think as you know, Nikki Haley's base grows and
Speaker 14: she continues to outpace kind of what is that second
Speaker 14: tier group? I think you definitely have to get a
Speaker 14: little bit bit nervous if you're the Biden team, for sure.
Speaker 3: What do you think of the results of this pull Rick,
Speaker 3: the trajectory for Ronda Santis and the trajectory for Nicki
Speaker 3: Haley or hard to.
Speaker 8: Deny, Yeah, it is hard to deny.
Speaker 10: I mean, Desanta's has been you know, sort of just
Speaker 10: going nowhere. And we've been talking about the phenomena that
Speaker 10: he has because he has to make a mark in Iowa.
Speaker 10: He doesn't have another state to really campaign in. All
Speaker 10: his one hundred million dollar super pack is getting spent
Speaker 10: in Iowa and the fact that he's actually ticking down
Speaker 10: in this survey is really bad news for him. In reverse,
Speaker 10: Nikki Hayley, who's actually been making moves in New Hampshire
Speaker 10: and actually we've seen in public polls increasing her capacity
Speaker 10: and even outstripping DeSantis in New Hampshire, now can add
Speaker 10: Iowa as a potential battleground because she almost doubled the
Speaker 10: amount of support that she had since the last de
Speaker 10: Wine registered poll and frankly, with very good underlying data
Speaker 10: a little bit, I've been able to dig in on
Speaker 10: this pole. I mean, she doubled her numbers with Independence,
Speaker 10: while everybody else either went down or stayed the same.
Speaker 8: So you know, Independence makeup.
Speaker 10: Almost a quarter of all the caucus goers and it's
Speaker 10: a it's a likely group that would really attach themselves
Speaker 10: to her, and all the while, nobody else in the
Speaker 10: field moving No, Chris Christy, no, Right, Vivic Ramaswami none,
Speaker 10: of these other people have made any progress.
Speaker 12: Now.
Speaker 3: Of course, Mike Pence is out, so we'll see where
Speaker 3: his couple of percentage points go in Iowa with Rick
Speaker 3: Davis and Alvin Jordan. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern.
Speaker 11: On Bloomberg Radio, the tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com, and.
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Speaker 3: Speaker Mike Johnson has got a long to do list,
Speaker 3: but what can he get done? Welcome to hour two
Speaker 3: of Sound On. As the new Speaker of the House
Speaker 3: promises a standalone bill to fund Israel on the House
Speaker 3: floor this week, even as the Senate moves in another
Speaker 3: direction and a government shut down looms. Just what three
Speaker 3: weeks away. We're joined by Jack Fitzpatrick, Bloomberg government appropriations
Speaker 3: and Congress expert, and we'll have our weekly conversation with
Speaker 3: Nick mulvaney, co founder of the Freedom Caucus, former acting
Speaker 3: Chief of Staff in the Trump White House. Three up
Speaker 3: and three down. You might have heard it. GM cuts
Speaker 3: a tentative deal with the UAW that takes care of
Speaker 3: all three of the big three automakers. We'll be joined
Speaker 3: by Arthur Wheaton, director of Labor Studies at Cornell, and
Speaker 3: his expertise on the way forward.
Speaker 12: Here.
Speaker 3: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound on Monday edition.
Speaker 3: It doesn't feel like a Monday at all.
Speaker 15: Kaylee, Oh, it very much does.
Speaker 3: Kaylee lines is with us, of course. The thing is,
Speaker 3: Kaylee has an excuse. Kaylee ran a marathon over the weekend.
Speaker 3: I slept through the weekend and I feel like I
Speaker 3: need another weekend though. Half marathon. Congratulations. You do this
Speaker 3: like every weekend though, if you have a Saturday, Kaylee,
Speaker 3: as a marathon. It's completely the way things work around here.
Speaker 3: You know, you're just killing time for the appropriations to begin, exactly.
Speaker 3: I understand how this works. Well. We did get a
Speaker 3: speaker last week, and that was a big deal around here.
Speaker 3: Now the speaker's got a menu here of things that
Speaker 3: a lot of people are asking for, and it's unclear
Speaker 3: exactly how all of this is going to work and
Speaker 3: whether the government will stay open through November seventeenth, though
Speaker 3: I know Jack is going to tell us that it
Speaker 3: will happen right well?
Speaker 16: He very well, mae should, we asked Jack, Well, we
Speaker 16: certainly can't rotate some share there He is now Jack
Speaker 16: Fitzpatrick Bloomberg Government from next door on K Street.
Speaker 3: It's good to see you, sir, Thanks for coming in.
Speaker 3: Not a big shocker to hear Mike Johnson say over
Speaker 3: the weekend he wants to stand alone vote on Israel funding.
Speaker 3: He said last week what buyfei or kate was the
Speaker 3: word he used. Now speaking with Fox News, he does
Speaker 3: it again. Just for good measure. Here's Mike Johnson when
Speaker 3: asked about the big request for money for Israel, Ukraine,
Speaker 3: Taiwan and the border.
Speaker 13: Well, listen, we're going to move a standalone Israel funding
Speaker 13: bill this week in the House. I know our colleagues
Speaker 13: are Republican colleagues in the Senate have a similar measure.
Speaker 13: We believe that that is a pressing and urgent need.
Speaker 13: There are lots of things going on around the world
Speaker 13: that we have to address, and we will, but right now,
Speaker 13: what's happening in Israel takes the immediate attention.
Speaker 3: So how is this going to work when the Senate
Speaker 3: apparently wants to do it the way the President is asking.
Speaker 3: Mitch McConnell is appearing in Louisville today with the Ukrainian
Speaker 3: ambassador to the US to make the point, do we
Speaker 3: already have a standoff?
Speaker 17: This is a fight. I'm not sure it is the fight.
Speaker 17: On one hand, yes, the President said, give me a
Speaker 17: bunch of things all in one, and there are lawmakers
Speaker 17: who think it makes sense to put Israel, Ukraine, US
Speaker 17: Mexico border, Taiwan, and the Indo Pacific funding all together
Speaker 17: in one big thing. House Republican leadership clearly does not agree.
Speaker 17: But I remember just a week ago or so a
Speaker 17: group of House Republicans who are pretty pro Ukraine. They
Speaker 17: were led by Dan Crenshaw, sort of defense hawks, said
Speaker 17: the real question is can we get a deal on
Speaker 17: Ukraine with the border stuff.
Speaker 3: That's the political trade off.
Speaker 17: So that the neoliberal neoconservative people get what they want
Speaker 17: in a Ukraine package, the more hardline conservatives get what
Speaker 17: they want in a border measure. And I do not
Speaker 17: think that separating Israel necessarily makes everything collapse. They can
Speaker 17: do multiple bills, but there's still this opportunity to maybe
Speaker 17: bring the two wings together if Ukraine and borders still
Speaker 17: go together.
Speaker 16: Okay, so you're talking about multiple bills here in terms
Speaker 16: of supplemental funding, but there's also a number of bills
Speaker 16: to contend with in terms of appropriations. I know they're
Speaker 16: going to try to pass a couple more this week,
Speaker 16: right What exactly is the sequencing here?
Speaker 17: We don't know yet how much the House is actually
Speaker 17: going to sincerely try to do.
Speaker 3: There was a detailed.
Speaker 17: Plan by Mike Johnson put Forth as he was running
Speaker 17: for speaker that said, here's how we're going to pass
Speaker 17: all our bills by November seventeenth. The House is not
Speaker 17: actually coming back this week until Wednesday, and they are
Speaker 17: going to vote, he said, on this Israel measure which
Speaker 17: then leaves out Ukraine and the border by Thursday. They
Speaker 17: are going to have to vote this week.
Speaker 1: They have to.
Speaker 17: Legally vote within two legislative days on the expulsion of
Speaker 17: George Santos because of a measure that was filed that
Speaker 17: requires a vote on that. So there's a plan to
Speaker 17: vote on three more regular appropriations bills in the House.
Speaker 17: There are a lot of distractions though, and that's also
Speaker 17: the case in the Senate. They've got about ten amendments
Speaker 17: left to go on the Senate on this three bill package,
Speaker 17: so it's pretty slow going.
Speaker 3: Before we bring in Mick mulvaney, I want to ask
Speaker 3: you about the motion to vacate. There's a new effort
Speaker 3: I guess, to increase the threshold on the motion. Does
Speaker 3: that have support in the House after this whole saga
Speaker 3: we just lived through.
Speaker 17: That wasn't answered clearly during the speaker fight, and given
Speaker 17: that Mike Johnson did not make his candidacy contingent on
Speaker 17: people agreeing to change that, that seems more like a
Speaker 17: conversation that has to happen rather than something that's going
Speaker 17: to be forced in action sometime soon.
Speaker 16: It was interesting in that interview he did with Sean
Speaker 16: Hannity last week, though there was a moment in there
Speaker 16: and it was Hannity was getting ready to ask another question,
Speaker 16: but Mike Johnson was kind of like, I think we're
Speaker 16: going to change it.
Speaker 15: I think we're going to change it, and then that's
Speaker 15: kind of going to do.
Speaker 3: So we'll see Jack. Great to see you, Thanks as always.
Speaker 3: Jack Fitzpatrick our colleague at Bloomberg Government, right next door
Speaker 3: Congress reporter who specializes in appropriations, not unlike Mick mulvaney
Speaker 3: who's with us now, each Mondy at this time, the
Speaker 3: former OMB director. I'm just putting that first, because I
Speaker 3: never do. The co founder of the Freedom Pop is
Speaker 3: for the acting chief of Yeah, there's something else in
Speaker 3: here I could put in front of it. It's good
Speaker 3: to see you, Mick. As always, before we get into
Speaker 3: the real work. Does this motion to vacate actually change?
Speaker 3: There's an effort right now. I believe it's Max Miller
Speaker 3: of Ohio who says this should this should require one
Speaker 3: hundred and twelve members. Do you agree?
Speaker 18: Well, that was the rule under Nancy Pelosi. I think
Speaker 18: she'd changed it to the majority of the majority. Other
Speaker 18: than that brief, I think it was two or four
Speaker 18: year period. Every speaker in history had to deal with
Speaker 18: the motion made by one person, and there's a lot
Speaker 18: of weight of history there. Then the question is not
Speaker 18: the number of people, it's the people you've got. So's
Speaker 18: I'd be curious to Jack still listening. I don't remember.
Speaker 18: I've been out of the House now about seven years.
Speaker 18: I don't remember how to change the rules in the
Speaker 18: middle of a Congress. I think the burden is higher
Speaker 18: the boat burden is higher during a Congress to change
Speaker 18: the rules than it is at the outset of every Congress.
Speaker 18: Typically at the beginning of each congress, right after they
Speaker 18: pick a speaker, what happens is they adopt the rules
Speaker 18: package for that Congress for that two year congress, and
Speaker 18: they usually don't change that during the two years, but
Speaker 18: they can. I just think there's a higher burden, and
Speaker 18: if there is, it's highly unlikely you're going to change this.
Speaker 5: Look, everybody I've talked to said that while you know.
Speaker 18: That they're watching Mike very closely, I'm sure the appropriates
Speaker 18: are watching Mike very closely. Folks in the center of
Speaker 18: the Republican Party watching him extraordinarily closely and will hold
Speaker 18: him his feet to the fire. I'm making sure things
Speaker 18: work in the folks I talk to Joe Gaily, I
Speaker 18: don't get the impression there's a lot of appetite right
Speaker 18: now for either changing the rules on the speaker or
Speaker 18: more importantly, having another speaker vote. I think Mike Johnson
Speaker 18: is going to be the speaker for the rest of
Speaker 18: this Congress, and then this discussion will go over into
Speaker 18: what happens after the next election.
Speaker 16: Okay, mix, So if we operate under that assumption that
Speaker 16: it will be Speaker Johnson at least until twenty twenty five,
Speaker 16: how much power and influence does Speaker Johnson really have,
Speaker 16: considering a lot of people didn't even really know who
Speaker 16: he was before he ultimately got the gabble. Is this
Speaker 16: really going to be Speaker Johnson in the front and
Speaker 16: Steve Scalice is the man behind the curtain.
Speaker 15: How do you think the power dynamics are going to
Speaker 15: work here?
Speaker 5: Well?
Speaker 18: You know no, I mean that both Louisiana I assumainly
Speaker 18: know each'all. Again, I don't know Mike Johnson very well.
Speaker 18: He got there just as I was leaving. I know
Speaker 18: Steve Scaleze very well. My guess is to answer your
Speaker 18: question that Mike Johnson will have roughly the same amount
Speaker 18: of authority that Kevin McCarthy had. It's an institutional sort
Speaker 18: of authority. What does the speaker get to do? He
Speaker 18: gets to pick which bills come to the floor. He
Speaker 18: gets to a sort of as he's heavily involved in
Speaker 18: the committee chairmanships, but those have already been set. So
Speaker 18: the Speaker has some authority, but not a tremendous amount
Speaker 18: of authority, especially when the margins are this tight, keep
Speaker 18: in mind Nancy Pelosi did not have a lot of
Speaker 18: authority when she was Speaker, and that sounds strange to
Speaker 18: say it, so let me take two seconds to explain
Speaker 18: why that is. She only had a margin of four
Speaker 18: or five votes. And while she had more control over
Speaker 18: her conference than Kevin McCarthy did or Mike Johnson will,
Speaker 18: she still had to essentially bring stuff to the floor
Speaker 18: that everybody could vote for. She couldn't pass anything that
Speaker 18: was controversial within her party. She had a sort of
Speaker 18: go wherever her majority point at her. And that's the
Speaker 18: same sort of environment that Kevin was in. It will
Speaker 18: be the same environment that my Johnson is in.
Speaker 3: Cool a lot there, And I wonder your thoughts on
Speaker 3: Ukraine funding, specifically with Mitch McConnell. I keep referring to this, Mick,
Speaker 3: but I think it's fascinating he's spending time appearing with
Speaker 3: Oksana Markoova today in Kentucky. Of course, Ukraine's ambassador to
Speaker 3: the US, who is a known entity in our media
Speaker 3: here and has been for the better part of two years.
Speaker 3: This is not something that he's going to drop very easily.
Speaker 3: Is the Speaker do you think already in touch with
Speaker 3: the Senate Republican leader on.
Speaker 18: This, Oh, sure, one hundred percent. I think Jack actually
Speaker 18: in your previous segment hit the nail on the head.
Speaker 18: Is that, Look, a lot of Republican members, a lot
Speaker 18: of congressmen and women from both parties don't like these
Speaker 18: monster deals right where you throw a bunch of crap
Speaker 18: in a bill, and if I want to get the
Speaker 18: one thing i'd like, I have to vote for nine
Speaker 18: things that I don't like.
Speaker 5: They don't like that.
Speaker 18: It perverts the process. That's a bipartisan sort of objection.
Speaker 18: So you hear the speakers say I want to split
Speaker 18: off funding for Israel, My guess is there's going to
Speaker 18: be a good level of support for that. That does
Speaker 18: not necessarily kill Ukraine funding because, as Jack pointed out,
Speaker 18: it still allows the folks in the Senate to talk
Speaker 18: about marrying Ukraine funding with the border. So you could
Speaker 18: have instead of one monster bill, you might have two.
Speaker 18: You'd have one for Israel, which is a relatively small bill.
Speaker 18: Keep on the funding for Israel's about fourteen billion dollars
Speaker 18: or roughly twelve percent of the overall bill. Have one
Speaker 18: bill for Israel, and then another bill for Ukraine married
Speaker 18: with a border. That's the type of thing that sounds
Speaker 18: like it might have some life to it and allow
Speaker 18: everybody to have their own vote, vote yes on one,
Speaker 18: no on the other. But the House in the Senates
Speaker 18: still get to work their will without forcing down a
Speaker 18: monster omnibus bill down a lot of people's throats. So
Speaker 18: I'm cautiously optimistic that sounds like it is the way
Speaker 18: that things should play out.
Speaker 16: So it's going to come down to the math and
Speaker 16: whether or not any of those individual things can get
Speaker 16: the adequate number of votes. And while we're thinking about
Speaker 16: numbers and counting Votesmick, knowing all that work needs to
Speaker 16: be done, that there's so many bills that they're going
Speaker 16: to need to pass, is there any real chance that
Speaker 16: the Republicans kicked George Santos out of the House and
Speaker 16: narrow their margin even further.
Speaker 5: Ooh, really good question.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 18: I think Mike Johnson had said early on that that
Speaker 18: wasn't going to be a priority, that other stuff to do.
Speaker 16: I no longer the Expulsion resolution could come to the
Speaker 16: floor this week, And I just wonder how many people
Speaker 16: are going to vote.
Speaker 18: Yeah, the questions are they going to Kaylee, and I'm
Speaker 18: asking you a question I don't know the answer to.
Speaker 5: Is that a privileged motion? Do they have to vote
Speaker 5: on it?
Speaker 16: Yes, two legislative days is our understanding.
Speaker 18: So it's sort of like the same as the motion
Speaker 18: of vacate. It has to sit for forty eight for
Speaker 18: two days to ripen, but then it can be brought
Speaker 18: at any time. Keep in mind there's two different things there.
Speaker 18: By the way, as soon as I say that out loud,
Speaker 18: you know, people got the motion to vacate wrong. They
Speaker 18: said that after it was interduce used it would have
Speaker 18: to get him up in forty eight hours or two days.
Speaker 18: That's not true. It's after it was introduced. It could
Speaker 18: come up at any time after two days, as long
Speaker 18: as someone then.
Speaker 5: Brought the motion to the floor.
Speaker 18: If the motion did to expel Santos falls into a
Speaker 18: sort of a similar category. You could file the motion
Speaker 18: and then you can bring the motion force a vote
Speaker 18: anytime after two days. But it doesn't mean the vote
Speaker 18: automatically takes place after two days. So if you're a
Speaker 18: Republican from New York and you want to sort of
Speaker 18: beat your chest and say you want to get rid
Speaker 18: of George Santos, you could file the motion but then
Speaker 18: not bring it up for a vote. I don't know
Speaker 18: that George Santos thing is really, really weird. I don't
Speaker 18: know the guy, Thank goodness. My guess is he's probably
Speaker 18: gone if it does come to a vote. And now
Speaker 18: that the speaker thing is sort of put to bed,
Speaker 18: maybe for the rest of this Congress, the Republicans be
Speaker 18: more likely to get rid of him because they don't
Speaker 18: care about that extra one vote. In terms of emotion
Speaker 18: to vk.
Speaker 3: Well, I was compelled by his answer when asked about
Speaker 3: this on Fox last week.
Speaker 18: The Speaker did lie for due process compelled You weren't
Speaker 18: compelled by anything, said, are.
Speaker 3: You kidding me? I don't know if yes, right not.
Speaker 3: Due process was invoked, but not until after he talked
Speaker 3: about the thin margin in the House.
Speaker 12: MC.
Speaker 3: Here's Speaker Johnson, here's the reality, Sean.
Speaker 13: We have a four seat majority in the House. It
Speaker 13: is possible that that number may be reduced even more
Speaker 13: in the coming weeks and months, and so we'll have
Speaker 13: what may be the most razor thin majority in the
Speaker 13: history of the Congress. We have no margin for error,
Speaker 13: and so George Santos is due due process, right, he is.
Speaker 13: My understanding is I think he's appearing in a federal
Speaker 13: court tomorrow and we have to allow due process to
Speaker 13: play itself out. That's what our system of justice is for.
Speaker 7: He's not convicted, he's charged.
Speaker 13: He's charged. And so if we're going to expel people
Speaker 13: from Congress just because they're charged with a crime, then
Speaker 13: you know, are accused, that's a that's a problem.
Speaker 3: So Mick, we're just saying it out loud, right, this
Speaker 3: is not about due process. It's about keeping every vote
Speaker 3: you can.
Speaker 5: Joe, and I owe your apology.
Speaker 18: I thought you meant you were compelled by something that
Speaker 18: George Santos had said.
Speaker 5: I was taking you to task on that, and.
Speaker 3: I'm compelled by everything George Santos says, that's not a question.
Speaker 18: Look at this point, I don't know if there's as
Speaker 18: much of a difference between a five vote margin and
Speaker 18: a four vote margin. It's going to be tight regardless.
Speaker 18: So you know, I think he's let The safe place
Speaker 18: for him to go is to do process. I think
Speaker 18: I respect that and to say, look, the House will
Speaker 18: work its will. It is typical that you know if
Speaker 18: you're if you're under indictment.
Speaker 5: You're supposed to, you're supposed to.
Speaker 18: I know you're supposed to get off your committees, and
Speaker 18: I think George has already done that, or they kicked
Speaker 18: him off of this committee. I don't know what the
Speaker 18: precedent is on indictment on on I don't know if
Speaker 18: there's anybody who's been expelled for an indictment. If not,
Speaker 18: then George is probably safe for a while.
Speaker 5: I think he pled not guilty late last week, right
Speaker 5: after that interviews taking place.
Speaker 3: Yeah, pretty remarkable he did. It was actually just our
Speaker 3: after I always wish we had more time with mcmulvaney.
Speaker 3: It's great to see you make Let's do it in
Speaker 3: a week. Just imagine what will happen between now and then.
Speaker 3: Mick mulvaney here on Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew
Speaker 3: with Kaylee Lines. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern.
Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Business app, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcast.
Speaker 3: So, our historic auto workers strike appears to be over.
Speaker 3: This is just tentative now, but GM is the last
Speaker 3: piece to fall in place following Ford in Stilantis. I'm
Speaker 3: Joe Matthew along with Kaylee lines that news coming this morning.
Speaker 3: GM cutting a deal means the whole thing is done, right,
Speaker 3: This was all three of the Big three.
Speaker 15: Yeah, I mean this is still tentative.
Speaker 16: It'll have to be approved by the union, So we're
Speaker 16: talking thousands of members that will have tens of thousands
Speaker 16: of them that have to sign off on this. But
Speaker 16: it does seem like this brings the beginning of the
Speaker 16: end of a six week long strike. And what they
Speaker 16: got is very similar to what they got out of
Speaker 16: Ford and Stilantis. And when I say they, I mean
Speaker 16: the uaw twenty five percent increase in wages, cost of
Speaker 16: living allowances included in this, and it's Delantis's case, it
Speaker 16: was also an issue of making job security concessions as well.
Speaker 3: Does Sean Fain get like a parade? Does he get
Speaker 3: what are the members do for Sean Fain? Throw himself
Speaker 3: a parade.
Speaker 15: Gift him some more Camo shirts.
Speaker 3: Right, it'll be all white Camo. He must be writing
Speaker 3: a ripper right now for his next Facebook Live. I
Speaker 3: don't know, maybe you know when that happens. This is
Speaker 3: what he was sounding like last week when it was Ford.
Speaker 3: Of course we were talking about.
Speaker 19: We took our strike to a new phase and hit
Speaker 19: the companies with maximum effect. On Monday, we called on
Speaker 19: our UAW family at Sterling Heights Assembly to stand up
Speaker 19: that is stillanus's biggest and most profitable plant. On Tuesday,
Speaker 19: our UAW family at Arlington Assembly answered the call and
Speaker 19: they went out on strike, shutting down GM's biggest and
Speaker 19: most profitable plant. Ford knew what was coming for them
Speaker 19: on Wednesday if we didn't get a deal that was.
Speaker 3: Checkmate, checkmate, maximum effects, he says. The strike delivered, and
Speaker 3: so Sean Fain may have just set a massive precedent
Speaker 3: for organized labor all over the country, which is another
Speaker 3: part of maybe the next part of this story.
Speaker 16: Yeah, because we're thinking about a four year contract here.
Speaker 16: So there's the potential that all this song and dance
Speaker 16: happens again in twenty twenty eight. And what's interesting is
Speaker 16: the UAW has asked other unions to time their contracts
Speaker 16: around the same May twenty twenty eight.
Speaker 15: Everybody could be going on strike.
Speaker 3: This is something and he could probably be the one
Speaker 3: to pull it off right.
Speaker 15: Maybe it's a movement, not a moment. We'll see.
Speaker 1: That was good.
Speaker 15: Oh, thank you.
Speaker 3: I want to talk to the professor. Professor Wheaton, director
Speaker 3: of Labor Studies at Cornell University School of Industrial and
Speaker 3: Labor Relations. Loved our conversation in the throes of this.
Speaker 3: Arthur Wheaton has helped to actually negotiate labor contracts before,
Speaker 3: and it's with us now that we have some news.
Speaker 3: It's good to see professor. Thanks for joining us here
Speaker 3: once again. On Bloomberg's sound on Sean Fain got more
Speaker 3: than a lot of people thought he would get. How
Speaker 3: would you grade his level of success here?
Speaker 20: I think he should receive a grade of an A plus.
Speaker 20: I think he far exceeded what I thought possible for
Speaker 20: him to get. And it's important to remember that they
Speaker 20: got quite a bit for the workers that were hired
Speaker 20: before two thousand and eight, but they got massive increases
Speaker 20: for the new hires, temporaries and what they refer to
Speaker 20: as in progression workers, in some case up to one
Speaker 20: hundred and sixty five percent increases in their wages.
Speaker 16: Yeah, and it's not just about wages, as we know,
Speaker 16: there's other benefits at play. Here, we're still trying to
Speaker 16: figure out what exactly the details are in the case
Speaker 16: of gm as retirement benefits where real sticking point we
Speaker 16: understood in the conversation, so they must have ironed that
Speaker 16: out in some way. But net looking at this, looking
Speaker 16: at what the UAW has been able to pull off
Speaker 16: here with these automakers, is this something that is Sean
Speaker 16: Fain and an Auto workers union specific, or is this
Speaker 16: something that other labor forces are going to be able
Speaker 16: to replicate when they're dealing with companies going forward.
Speaker 20: I think it's also building upon the success that the
Speaker 20: Teamsters had with ups, and it's building upon this strong
Speaker 20: labor market. We have to help in this case, but
Speaker 20: Sean Fain deserves a tremendous amount of our respect and
Speaker 20: support for what he was able to accomplish, not just
Speaker 20: for the UAW, but for all workers, because people will
Speaker 20: start paying higher wages to avoid unionize union drives at
Speaker 20: their places. So this should help all folks in manufacturing,
Speaker 20: especially in the auto sector.
Speaker 3: Should we assume these are all around FID.
Speaker 20: You never you can never assume anything. They thought they
Speaker 20: had a deal at mactruck and that did not get ratified.
Speaker 20: I'm optimistic this one will get ratified, but I'm making
Speaker 20: no guarantees, but really big improvements, much higher than most
Speaker 20: analysts dream possible.
Speaker 16: When you talk about how this creates something that is
Speaker 16: much bigger than the UAW or a force that is
Speaker 16: greater than just the United Autoworkers, I also just wonder
Speaker 16: thinking about auto workers that aren't at these these big three,
Speaker 16: like those that are employed by say Tesla. Do you
Speaker 16: think we could see this force spread there?
Speaker 12: Oh?
Speaker 7: Absolutely.
Speaker 20: Tesla has had a Elon musk Is like the saying
Speaker 20: he's paying as much as the UAW so that there's
Speaker 20: no incentive to join the UAW because they pay decent wages.
Speaker 20: But these improvements for all of the different categories and
Speaker 20: classifications for the UAW means that's no longer the case,
Speaker 20: so they will have an incentive to pay higher or
Speaker 20: face additional organizing drives. And according to Sean Fain, his
Speaker 20: phones ringing off the hook for members trying to join
Speaker 20: with the UAW now that they've got big gains on
Speaker 20: the table. So if you get a big contract, it
Speaker 20: really helps in your organizing efforts.
Speaker 3: Well, you tend to believe him. What did he refer
Speaker 3: to the Big Three becoming the Big five or six
Speaker 3: that would have to include Tesla. I'm assuming Kayley, Professor,
Speaker 3: I want to ask you about the greater picture here.
Speaker 3: We still don't have an actors' union contract, and as
Speaker 3: we look around the country, we can find any number
Speaker 3: of others that appear coiled and set to spring, not
Speaker 3: the smallest of which is in Las Vegas. We've got
Speaker 3: the Culinary Union on the Las Vegas Strip, on the
Speaker 3: verge of what appears to be a massive labor action
Speaker 3: that would come on the eve of an F one race,
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl, the Consumer Electronics show, the type of
Speaker 3: strike that a lot of people would see and would
Speaker 3: likely get a lot of media coverage. We know how
Speaker 3: important that group is for Democrats coming up in the
Speaker 3: Nevada caucuses will also be held at the beginning of
Speaker 3: next year. It could be a collision when it comes
Speaker 3: to timing. Does this deal that we're seeing here in
Speaker 3: the recent action by the UAW prompt more labor actions
Speaker 3: like those it can?
Speaker 20: It shows success of collective bargaining works and taking collective
Speaker 20: action can make a difference. And why would it happen
Speaker 20: with the same sorts of events you're talking about because
Speaker 20: you strike when you have the most leverage and you
Speaker 20: want to make sure you can get the biggest gains.
Speaker 20: If there was nothing happening and you were during the
Speaker 20: heights of the pandemic and no one was going to Vegas,
Speaker 20: it wouldn't have as much impact. Now that you have
Speaker 20: Vegas starting to attract major events, that's when you have
Speaker 20: the most leverage at the table. That's when you want
Speaker 20: to try to get your piece of that economic action.
Speaker 20: So it only makes sense, and I think it's going
Speaker 20: to happen in other sectors as well. I hope they
Speaker 20: get the SAG after ratified very quickly. And you're seeing
Speaker 20: President Biden already trying to make changes for artificial intelligence,
Speaker 20: and that's one of the issues actors are facing. So's
Speaker 20: it's not just one small piece of the puzzle, where
Speaker 20: a lot of people that are just workers and trying
Speaker 20: to get a little bit bigger piece of the pie.
Speaker 19: Yeah.
Speaker 16: I'm glad you brought up President Biden because what you
Speaker 16: just said about the UAW deal being a testament to
Speaker 16: the power of collective, collective bargaining and unions. That's essentially
Speaker 16: what the President said in the statement he put out
Speaker 16: after the news of the Stalantis UAW deal was announced.
Speaker 15: What grade would you.
Speaker 16: Give him in terms of his support of unions and
Speaker 16: his efforts here with the UAW. Knowing that he did
Speaker 16: go visit the picket line in Detroit.
Speaker 20: Being the first sitting president to ever walk a picket
Speaker 20: line and support of the union, I'd have to give
Speaker 20: him an A. I think that's at least an A
Speaker 20: for effort and trying to be there. I think you
Speaker 20: if you try to give all of Congress a great
Speaker 20: that's a little harder to do. So you can only
Speaker 20: do so much as president, and I think he's got
Speaker 20: a good positive attitude towards union, along with about seventy
Speaker 20: percent of America has a positive attitude about unions.
Speaker 3: I thought it was an E for effort, Professor, I
Speaker 3: don't know how that goes that. That's very generous for
Speaker 3: Joe Biden. Does that mean that Donald Trump gets a
Speaker 3: different grade? He went out there to speak to union
Speaker 3: members as well.
Speaker 20: I would have to give him a failing grade, because
Speaker 20: if you're going to go and support of union members,
Speaker 20: you might want to try going to a union facility.
Speaker 20: So he went to talk to non union people in
Speaker 20: a non union factory and trying to criticize the union
Speaker 20: that was on strike. So I think there, in terms
Speaker 20: of their efforts towards helping the workers, I would have
Speaker 20: to give Biden the edge on that going to the
Speaker 20: people actually involved in the same cities they're involved.
Speaker 3: All Right, we got maybe this will be a thing
Speaker 3: on sound one didn't we never did the grading before.
Speaker 3: Thank you for playing along. Arthur Wheaton, director of Labor Studies,
Speaker 3: Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations. Don't assume, Kaylee.
Speaker 3: He says that these deals will be ratified.
Speaker 16: Yeah, I think we should probably be calling them tentative deals.
Speaker 3: Fair enough, and you did. I think we both used
Speaker 3: that word. I think I'm going to give us both
Speaker 3: credit for that, But boy, that would be a major
Speaker 3: blow for Sewn Fain. Yes, well done. That's an A
Speaker 3: I think an editor. That's an E for editorial.
Speaker 12: Nevermind.
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Speaker 3: As the Biden administration brings artificial intelligence back into the
Speaker 3: conversation today, this is not the first time, Kaylee lines,
Speaker 3: it will not be the last, as Capitol Hills seek
Speaker 3: some sort of legislative solution that won't be coming anytime soon.
Speaker 3: We can't even fund the government. The administration should get
Speaker 3: some credit for keeping the drum beat on this. The
Speaker 3: President today signing another executive order, is going to be
Speaker 3: talking about this momentarily here too. I hate to say
Speaker 3: this again, to put guardrails around this emerging technology?
Speaker 12: How did I do?
Speaker 3: Would that go in the news release?
Speaker 15: Yeah, that pretty much sums it up because.
Speaker 3: That doesn't mean anything to us, and we don't always
Speaker 3: know what we're talking about when it comes to AI,
Speaker 3: right to begin with.
Speaker 16: And a lot of these executive orders are multi prompt
Speaker 16: and he's directing different departments and agencies to do different things,
Speaker 16: but broadly sweeping, it's just let's try to do something
Speaker 16: about AI, yes, right, and then it gets a little
Speaker 16: bit more specific. But to be honest, show a lot
Speaker 16: of this still feels.
Speaker 3: Quite a MorphOS sure, and it begins with the matter
Speaker 3: of privacy here and of course getting corporate partners to
Speaker 3: sign on. You were up on Capitol Hill when Elon
Speaker 3: Musk and everyone else came up there to brief lawmakers.
Speaker 3: That was the all Senators briefing. Nothing followed that though, right,
Speaker 3: that was a conversation and a photo op.
Speaker 16: And yeah, Chuck Schumer had said, this is going to
Speaker 16: be the first of many. And really it was about education.
Speaker 16: It wasn't about actually trying to set policy. It was
Speaker 16: just trying to get members of Congress to wrap their
Speaker 16: head around this technology and hear from people so that
Speaker 16: they can proceed on a path forward. And yeah, I
Speaker 16: haven't heard much about what that path forward, at least
Speaker 16: legislatively is too well.
Speaker 3: Bloomberg government was the first to get their hands on
Speaker 3: the Order on the EO. Here we go again, new
Speaker 3: standards on security and privacy protections for AI, with far
Speaker 3: reaching impacts on companies developers such as Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet.
Speaker 3: Of course, these are the main AI concerns out there.
Speaker 3: Google's parent will be directed to put these models through
Speaker 3: safety tests and submit results to the government before their
Speaker 3: public release. So if you're teaching one of these models something,
Speaker 3: apparently you have to tell the government first. I don't
Speaker 3: know how that's going to work or exactly what they
Speaker 3: agree to, but I don't think any of this is
Speaker 3: binding either.
Speaker 16: Well that's very good point of whether these are just
Speaker 16: you know, agreements in principle. Yeah, and then we'll see
Speaker 16: about actual enforcement. Something else is asking the Commerce Department
Speaker 16: to help develop measures to counter public confusion about authentic content.
Speaker 16: This is when we start thinking about deep fakes and misinformation.
Speaker 3: So yeah, well, this afternoon at the White House change anything.
Speaker 3: I don't know, but we wanted to talk to Kaitlyn
Speaker 3: Lagaki about it. Four Corners public affairs partner and spent
Speaker 3: time as an advisor to the Commerce Secretary in this administration. Caitlyn,
Speaker 3: it's great to see you. I know, this is something
Speaker 3: that you were actually briefing the Commerce Secretary on. And
Speaker 3: the Biden administration is trying to keep up with the
Speaker 3: flow here and it feels like Washington is already behind.
Speaker 3: How important is this executive order today?
Speaker 9: Yeah, you know, Kaylee mentioned earlier that a lot of
Speaker 9: this still feels a little bit soft. I was actually
Speaker 9: surprised at how far this executive order went. We're obviously
Speaker 9: still in the early ages, but this was or early stages,
Speaker 9: but this was much more robust than I was expecting.
Speaker 9: I think they cover a breadth of topics, whether it's healthcare, education,
Speaker 9: national and economic security that a lot of folks are
Speaker 9: concerned about. And so, like you said, this is a
Speaker 9: very important first step. But I think the most important
Speaker 9: thing is that at least the Biden administration and to
Speaker 9: an extent, Capitol Hill have learned the lessons of you know,
Speaker 9: the social media debate on Capitol Hill, and they want
Speaker 9: to place some sort of guardrails on this before the
Speaker 9: horse gets too far out of the barn, because you know,
Speaker 9: once these technologies take hold, it's so hard to reel
Speaker 9: them back in. And so I think this executive order
Speaker 9: is a really important first step to kind of one
Speaker 9: tell companies what the administration is concerned about, what they're
Speaker 9: looking at. But it also sent a message with its
Speaker 9: utilization of the Defense Production Act that they want companies
Speaker 9: and businesses at the time table shaping solutions. But this
Speaker 9: administration is not afraid to go even further without them.
Speaker 16: Okay, well, you say it kind of gives companies a
Speaker 16: better idea of what their concerns are and gives companies
Speaker 16: some directives as to what they should be practicing. But
Speaker 16: how hard is it to actually make what has been
Speaker 16: outlined in this executive order a reality, for it to
Speaker 16: have real effect be enforced.
Speaker 9: That's a great question. I mean the interagency coordination that
Speaker 9: this document is going to require as a job in
Speaker 9: and of itself, I saw at least five different Cabinet
Speaker 9: agencies names. You're obviously going to have additional equities within
Speaker 9: the White House Department of Defense, so that I think
Speaker 9: that is, frankly one of the biggest challenges. The good
Speaker 9: news is that as the Biden administration has been approaching
Speaker 9: this question of AI, they've had all of those folks
Speaker 9: at the table from the beginning. But you're totally right
Speaker 9: that there are questions about enforcement. There are questions about
Speaker 9: how is this going to match up with legislation should
Speaker 9: it ever get through the Congress. But I think one
Speaker 9: of the most important things that is in this document
Speaker 9: that is going a little bit under the radar is
Speaker 9: how the government is going to use its procurement capacities
Speaker 9: to help shape some of this technology. The government is
Speaker 9: going to be spending billions and billions of dollars on
Speaker 9: AI technology, both for national security but also for how
Speaker 9: we do business within the government. Enforcing companies to comply
Speaker 9: with this set of guidelines in order to get federal
Speaker 9: contracts is going to be an important tool to enforce
Speaker 9: compliance with these goals.
Speaker 3: That's pretty big leverage, is that? Why, then, Caitlin, all
Speaker 3: fifteen companies signing onto these commitments are actually with the
Speaker 3: president today to try to make a united front here.
Speaker 3: These are the same companies who are asking in some
Speaker 3: cases to be regulated.
Speaker 9: A little yeah that, I think everyone recognizes the importance
Speaker 9: of having a shared set of goals and values and
Speaker 9: guidelines for how we implement this technology. But you're right
Speaker 9: when you look at the companies that aren't with the president,
Speaker 9: it's a lot of the biggest players in the space.
Speaker 3: They have a lot.
Speaker 9: At stake in terms of getting this right and protecting
Speaker 9: their corporate brand reputations. But I also do think that
Speaker 9: companies don't necessarily want to be on the hook for
Speaker 9: managing this on a case by case basis. The way
Speaker 9: that many social media companies are when it comes to
Speaker 9: disinformation on their platforms. They recognize the value and having
Speaker 9: everyone playing from the same set of rules.
Speaker 16: Finally, Kaitlyn, we only have about a minute left, But
Speaker 16: we were just having a whole conversation on labor in
Speaker 16: the power of unions and artificial intelligence's role in that
Speaker 16: was raised in that discussion. How much is this executive
Speaker 16: order going to have an impact on job security for
Speaker 16: American people.
Speaker 9: I don't know that it does yet. I think where
Speaker 9: you'll see a lot of it is in terms of
Speaker 9: figuring out where within the government you can automate tasks
Speaker 9: using that as a pilot. But this administration is very
Speaker 9: focused on making sure that we're balancing those equities and
Speaker 9: that we're not pushing people out of jobs, or if
Speaker 9: there are jobs that are being phased out because of
Speaker 9: technological advancements, how do we account for that. I don't
Speaker 9: see this going away as a major labor issue anytime soon.
Speaker 9: I also see it emerging as a huge issue in
Speaker 9: education and healthcare, and we've been very focused, I think,
Speaker 9: on the consumer applications for this, and.
Speaker 3: It depends up where we had more time with you,
Speaker 3: Kaitlin Legaki from Four Corners This is cut. Thanks for
Speaker 3: listening to the sound on podcast. Make sure to subscribe
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