1 00:00:01,440 --> 00:00:06,160 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound on 2 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: Democracy is at stake, and we have to have alliances 3 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: of people that strongly disagree on everything, but that fact 4 00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:15,920 Speaker 1: inflation is not going to be a problem. Placion will 5 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: moderate Bloomberg Sound on Politics, Policy and perspective from DC's 6 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: top name. It would be insanity if the Democrats don't 7 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: do something on Bill back Better. Pennsylvania, one of the 8 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: closest states in the election, will be critical for deciding 9 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: which party controls the Senate. After Bloomberg Sound On with 10 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 1: Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio, how could it be data 11 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 1: dependent if COVID keeps changing the data. Maybe that's the point. 12 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:49,599 Speaker 1: The results of a Macron turning up in the economy 13 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 1: as we enter the month of February, and we'll talk 14 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: about the impact on jobs and overall growth along with 15 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: the backdrop of inflation with Jared Bernstein. When of President 16 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: Biden's top eken Coomic advisers back with us today on 17 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg and on the same day, Senator Joe Mansion calls 18 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: build back Better Dead. We're going to connect the dots 19 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 1: between the economy and the rest of the Biden agenda 20 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill will be joined by Michael Hardaway of 21 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:13,960 Speaker 1: The Hardaway Wire and the best political panel in the business, 22 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Schanzano and Rick Davis with us 23 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:21,199 Speaker 1: on the Fastest hour in Politics, the News on Jobs Today. 24 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 1: Openings up unexpectedly in December. There are now ten point 25 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:29,199 Speaker 1: nine million open jobs so called. Quits fell slightly during 26 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 1: that same time, according to the Labor Department's Jolts survey. Now, look, 27 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,199 Speaker 1: we already know there are some concerns about Friday's monthly 28 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:37,840 Speaker 1: jobs report. If you listen to Bloomberg, you heard us 29 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 1: talk yesterday with Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, who told me 30 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 1: the number will likely be distorted by COVID because of 31 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 1: the timing the survey against oh Macron. The survey was 32 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: done roughly around the week of January twelve. Uh there 33 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 1: were millions of people that were still not not in work. 34 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 1: A lot of them were outsick folks. Some folks were 35 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:01,559 Speaker 1: outsick and if they were not l will for paid leave. 36 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 1: They're going to be mocked as not working when in 37 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: fact they are. So is the report even worth reading? 38 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 1: And what will the other indicators tell us about this 39 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,399 Speaker 1: economy in the opening month of the year. We talked 40 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 1: about it now with Jared Bernstein, a member of the 41 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 1: White House Council of Economic Advisors. Jared, thank you for 42 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 1: being back on Bloomberg. It's good to have you here. 43 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:26,079 Speaker 1: Was January a lost month for jobs because of the virus? Well, 44 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 1: we don't have a crystal ball. We have to wait 45 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:31,959 Speaker 1: and see the numbers. But Marty uh informed. I think 46 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 1: listeners have an extremely important thing, which is that in 47 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 1: the week that this survey was taken, this is the 48 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: payroll sir, right, that's the top line jobs number. We 49 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: all kind of go crazy at Friday morning, at day thirty. 50 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:46,639 Speaker 1: Uh that during the week of January twelve, that was 51 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,679 Speaker 1: the height of the omicron spike. And here's the key thing. 52 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: If you're not on the payroll, meaning you're sick or 53 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:56,240 Speaker 1: you're absence and you're not getting paid, yes, so you're 54 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,080 Speaker 1: on some sort of unpaid leave, you're not going to 55 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:02,120 Speaker 1: be counted on the payroll for the payroll survey. And 56 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:05,799 Speaker 1: the fact is, as Marty was saying, um, virtually all 57 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 1: of those folks likely still have their jobs. So when 58 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:11,239 Speaker 1: they go back in February, they'll be counted again. So 59 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:13,919 Speaker 1: should we be doing the survey somewhat differently than to 60 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 1: to be able to I think that's a fair it's 61 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 1: a fair question. I don't think so. It is a 62 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 1: survey of pay rolls. Uh, this is an anomalous development 63 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 1: having to do with a pandemic of the type that 64 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: we haven't seen for about a century. Um, it's very 65 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: important to systematically evaluate payrolls the way that the Bureau 66 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: of Labor statistics of it. Now. You know that they 67 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 1: also do a household survey and that they report in 68 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 1: the very same day, and if you are home from work, Um, 69 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:47,880 Speaker 1: even if you're on unpaid leave, you're going to tell 70 00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 1: the surveyor from the household survey that you still have 71 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: your job. So we'll look at that too. So, like 72 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: the month earlier, you could have a soft payrolls number 73 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 1: but still have an historically low unemployment rate because of 74 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 1: the method. Al g Yes, and I think that the 75 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: thing that we're getting at here, which is probably even 76 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 1: more important than one month, is that you really have 77 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: to be mindful of the broader trend. We at the 78 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: White House have tried to be very careful never to 79 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 1: lean too hard into one month even if we get 80 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 1: an upside surprise. In the background, we know that we've 81 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 1: had in the fastest economic growth in nearly four decades 82 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 1: GDP of five point seven percent over the year. We 83 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 1: know that in the backdrop of this job report is 84 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: the strongest job market on record by a variety of metrics, 85 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:37,720 Speaker 1: with the record that goes back to six million job 86 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:41,880 Speaker 1: last year, fastest balling unemployment rate on record. So one 87 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: month does not a new trend. Understand if we see 88 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 1: a kind of destruction, if that ends up being the case, 89 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 1: it plays out where there was you know, destruction in 90 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 1: the peril number because of COVID, some distortion maybe is 91 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 1: a better word than destruction. Wouldn't it then bounce right 92 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 1: back the next month, wouldn't we see pretty instantly if 93 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 1: that was the case, to the extent that people who 94 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 1: are counted as absent from work because they're unpaid are 95 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 1: back at work in February, They will be back up payroll, 96 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: and they will be back counted in February. Got it. 97 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:13,040 Speaker 1: I don't have a crystal ball for January and even 98 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:15,840 Speaker 1: less of one for February, but that is the mechanics 99 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 1: of how it works. Well, this is a heck of 100 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 1: a time to be in your business. How can you 101 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 1: possibly do any modeling? And maybe you've got a couple 102 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:24,560 Speaker 1: of different models that you're working on here. When you 103 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 1: guys get together and and put the green visors on, 104 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 1: when you're so data dependent, when there's so much uncertainty, 105 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 1: whether it's inflation, whether it's a job growth, this ten 106 00:05:33,279 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: point nine million UH open jobs number is a big one. 107 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: How do you forecast and make policy when there's so 108 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: much uncertainty? Jared, Yeah, great question. Well, the first thing 109 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: you do is you really focus on the facts of 110 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:51,480 Speaker 1: the case and you downplay especially high frequency, meaning these 111 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 1: kinds of forecast for weekly or monthly variables just too 112 00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 1: much variation around them, too large a forecast. There, We know, 113 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 1: and you just said it yourself, that the amount of 114 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 1: job openings is that an historic high. We know that 115 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 1: the unemployment rate back down under four percent, about three 116 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 1: years ahead of schedule according to CBO's projections. We know 117 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 1: that this is one of the tightest, most welcoming labor 118 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 1: markets in our history. So those are the facts when 119 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 1: it comes to forecasting. To stay away from the week 120 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:21,040 Speaker 1: to week in the month to month and look at 121 00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 1: the broader picture, and there you see the backdrop of 122 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 1: an historically strong economy ten point nine million open jobs. 123 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 1: Participation has been an issue. We ask the Labor Secretary 124 00:06:30,640 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 1: and yourself about this just about every month. Is it 125 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:37,160 Speaker 1: a COVID story? Still? Are we concerned about childcare? How 126 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: do you get that participation number back up where you 127 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 1: need it? You remember the old movie Murder on the 128 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:44,920 Speaker 1: Rain Express where it turned out I'm a spoiler here. 129 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 1: Uh you know it wasn't one purpose, it was a 130 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,840 Speaker 1: bunch of different purpose. Uh. That's that's really what we're 131 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 1: talking about here. Um concerned about COVID sure, but yes, childcare, 132 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 1: elder care, schooling issues. It's one of the reasons why 133 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 1: President Biden has kids instantly leaned in to the essential 134 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: importance of an affordable, accessible child care sector of the 135 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:08,599 Speaker 1: type they have in so many other advanced economies that 136 00:07:08,680 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 1: have higher participation rates, especially among caretakers, than we do. 137 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: So improving the economy's capacity on the supply side by 138 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 1: investing in childcare is a really smart idea. Well, what 139 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,760 Speaker 1: that says if if you've got build back better passed 140 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 1: with a paid leave component, would this have happened in 141 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 1: January or people would be unpaid leave and counted as 142 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 1: having a job. Correct. That's simple. Uh, you know, Look, 143 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 1: there are lots of different important policies under consideration right now. 144 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:46,280 Speaker 1: Mechanically speaking, yes, if you're if you're paid, if you're 145 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:49,400 Speaker 1: sick or absent for work, and you're paid on the payroll, 146 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 1: you're counted as being on the payroll. The exactly the 147 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 1: issue period, the issue we're looking at on Friday is 148 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: many people because the payroll period of Cohen's sided with 149 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 1: the peak in the Omicron cases is the problem that 150 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 1: we've detailed unpaid lead. You're not count as being on 151 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 1: the peril. But what I was talking about a second 152 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 1: ago was an affordable, accessible child care sector of the 153 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 1: type that President Biden has been fighting for will continue 154 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: to fight for, not just having nothing to do with 155 00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: with the fact that it's good politics, and a lot 156 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 1: of people really need this because of how much it 157 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:25,239 Speaker 1: means for their family budget and how much it means 158 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: for our labor force supply. Let's go down that road. 159 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: Let's go down that road for a second. With regard 160 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 1: to the child tax credit. We were told going into 161 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: this year that as it expired without build back better 162 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,920 Speaker 1: that eight to nine million children could be pushed below 163 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 1: the poverty line. Is that happening now as we speak, 164 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 1: And what's your plan to try to get the conversation 165 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 1: going again for an expanded child credit the tax credit 166 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:51,199 Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill. Ever since President Biden talked about the 167 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 1: child tax credit, he's talked about it in terms of 168 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 1: reaching families with kids, in terms of alleviating the pressures 169 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 1: that anyone who's ever raised a child those about, especially 170 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 1: for families in the bottom half of the pay scale. 171 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:07,760 Speaker 1: And he is consistently touted this impact on poverty, the 172 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: fact that the child tax Credit reduced child poverty by 173 00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 1: last year. And therefore this is not something that he 174 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: intends to, uh, you know, just let go by the wayside. 175 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,080 Speaker 1: He's going to continue to fight for that, and you 176 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 1: can hear him talking about that anytime the subject comes up. Um, 177 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: I'm not going to get into political negotiation on the 178 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 1: economics team, not the political team, but finding a path 179 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 1: for the child tax credit is essential for the well 180 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 1: being a blow income family. Well, of course, we also 181 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 1: heard from from you and others in the administration that 182 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 1: build back better would be one of the strongest ways 183 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 1: to lower prices, that it was anti inflation area as 184 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 1: opposed to what Republicans, we're accusing you of spending too 185 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 1: much money and fanning the flames of inflation. Now that 186 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,560 Speaker 1: build back Better is somewhere, I don't know where exactly 187 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: on a shelf. What tools does the administration have aside 188 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:01,439 Speaker 1: from deferring to the Federal Reserve to deal with inflation. Well, 189 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 1: first of all, let me just say about building back better. 190 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:07,559 Speaker 1: There remains very strong support in the Senate among Democrats 191 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 1: on Medicare, on helping people pay for healthcare, lowering the 192 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: cost of prescription drugs, lowering the cost of childcare, lowering 193 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 1: the cost of education. All of those are built back 194 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 1: better elements for which there is strong support among Democrats 195 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 1: in the Senate. In terms of what we can do 196 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 1: to help on inflation, this is such a critical question, 197 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 1: and I want everyone who can hear my voice to 198 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 1: hear this dispatch from the President to his economics team 199 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 1: is to work relentlessly doing everything we can to help 200 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 1: unsnarl supply chains, which we know are a key part 201 00:10:41,520 --> 00:10:44,080 Speaker 1: of the inflation problem. That involves our work at the 202 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: ports twenty four and seven making sure that the ports 203 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 1: are active twenty four and seven, getting goods from ship 204 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:54,439 Speaker 1: to shelf. That involves lowering container times, dwell times, the 205 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 1: containers spending the port. It involves our trucking agenda again 206 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 1: to get the goods from the containers to the trucks. 207 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:04,079 Speaker 1: We have extensive agendas and every one of those working 208 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 1: with the private sector to try to make that happen. 209 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: How do you get build back Better back on track? 210 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 1: When Joe Manchin says it's dead, I only have a minute. 211 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:13,839 Speaker 1: I'm just wondering if you see that still happening in 212 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: this year. Let me just finish the prior thought. We 213 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:20,080 Speaker 1: have a competition agenda, we have an energy agenda, every 214 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:23,760 Speaker 1: element of price pressures. We're trying to help do what 215 00:11:23,800 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 1: we can from our side in terms of getting Building 216 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 1: Back Better on track. All I can tell you is 217 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 1: that there is strong support among senators for lowering the 218 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 1: cost of prescription drugs, lowering the cost of healthcare, lowering 219 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 1: the cost of childcare, and that when you do that, 220 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 1: you don't you ease the inflationary problem in two ways, 221 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 1: one by lowering the cost of family the budgets by increase, 222 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:50,840 Speaker 1: and two by increasing labor supply. Understood economy's productive capacity 223 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:53,079 Speaker 1: We're gonna have to do a documentary next time. Jared, 224 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 1: I have like ten more questions for you, and I 225 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:57,319 Speaker 1: know you're not done talking. This stuff is complicated and 226 00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:00,280 Speaker 1: the the ground is shifting under our feet. Jared burn Stein, 227 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: we thank you for being with us. Straight from the 228 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 1: White House and the Biden Economic Agenda. Will assemble the 229 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 1: panel next. Rick and Genie on Bloomberg stay here, This 230 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:16,400 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. So long with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. 231 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 1: And just when the White House thinks it's safe to 232 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: build Back Better, the gentleman from West Virginia walks out 233 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 1: of his office and faces a horde of reporters with microphones, 234 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:33,560 Speaker 1: sticks in cameras to let them down again. It happened 235 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 1: again today, Senator Joe Manchin generating the headlines right around 236 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 1: lunchtime as we pick up the conversation we just had 237 00:12:41,559 --> 00:12:44,199 Speaker 1: with Jared Bernstein from the White House, and we're gonna 238 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 1: assemble the panel here, Rick and Jennie on their way in. 239 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:50,440 Speaker 1: First listen to the Senator from West Virginia talking specifically 240 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 1: about Build Back Better number one. He issued a statement 241 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: earlier said it was dead b B B. He says, 242 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 1: D e d and of course every reporter in the 243 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:05,319 Speaker 1: nation's capital had to follow up on it. Here's how 244 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: it went. Can you just clarify your remarks on build 245 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 1: Back Better? You're open to there's formal costs going on now, 246 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 1: but the bill wasn't before. It's been quiably structure difference. 247 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 1: I do anything, but there's no formal talking. You're still 248 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 1: looking at things have changed since then, things have changed. 249 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:32,079 Speaker 1: Bringing the panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Chanzano and Rick Davis. 250 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 1: How much are we reading into Joe Mansion's latest year, Genie. 251 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,280 Speaker 1: As you just heard Jared walked through with the White 252 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:41,640 Speaker 1: House is hoping for this plan B on build back 253 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:48,079 Speaker 1: Better is starting to feel as elusive as the first plan. Yeah, 254 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:51,959 Speaker 1: you know, Joe Mansion was very clear, as he has 255 00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:55,080 Speaker 1: been throughout and and that's the thing is that he 256 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:58,679 Speaker 1: really hasn't wavered. He was willing to talk about build 257 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:02,079 Speaker 1: back Better up to a point, and today he reiterated 258 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 1: what we've all known. It is dead for now. He 259 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 1: left the door open a tiny crack, said if there's 260 00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:09,440 Speaker 1: anything on the table, we could talk about it. But 261 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:12,679 Speaker 1: that's pretty much it. So this notion of a skinny 262 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 1: Build Back Better at this point is all but dead, 263 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 1: and that's something that we can't be surprised at. Rick 264 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:21,280 Speaker 1: Davis told the White House on this program to stop it, 265 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 1: stop having this conversation and focus on what you can 266 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 1: get done, like a budget. But Rick, we keep going 267 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 1: around again. Well we aren't. Joe Mansions not fair enough 268 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:37,000 Speaker 1: for whatever reason. Bernie Sanders is caught in this. Uh. 269 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 1: You know, we're coming up against groundhog Day, and with 270 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders it is groundhog Day. I mean, I think 271 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:46,120 Speaker 1: they had a rename Build Back Better the Dreaming Act, 272 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 1: not the Dreamers Act. Man um no, really, I mean 273 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 1: like Joe Mansion has been uber consistent. He's a one 274 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 1: guy who staked out of position last summer and stuck 275 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,720 Speaker 1: to it. Everyone else has been spinning around trying to 276 00:14:56,760 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 1: find a way to spend more money. Uh. It's pretty 277 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 1: clear that there are a lot of independent actors who 278 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 1: are probably calling him up saying, hey, would you take 279 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 1: my deal? But the reality is that's what leaderships for. 280 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 1: Where's where's Chuck Schumer stepping into the breach, filling the 281 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 1: vacuum and saying, look, these are our priorities and they're 282 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 1: either gonna be a skinny down, as Genie said, build 283 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 1: back better plan, or it's gonna be the budget, or 284 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:21,080 Speaker 1: it's gonna be making sure we get this China Competitiveness 285 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 1: Bill done. I mean, there are a lot of things 286 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 1: that the country needs done, and beating the door down 287 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 1: in West Virginia of Joe mansion is not actually a 288 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 1: productive thing to do. But the thing is, Genie, if 289 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:34,840 Speaker 1: it was slimmed down, if it was the skinny BBB, 290 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 1: how does that work against inflation and in many of 291 00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 1: the other effects that that Jared Bernstein was describing. That 292 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 1: was a that was a massive piece of legislation. If 293 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: you bring it down in just a couple of programs, 294 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: can you still say that it will lower prices and 295 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: make people's lives better? They can say it. And that's 296 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 1: what the President tried to do when he gathered those 297 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: CEOs and head of industry. You know, if you weeks 298 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 1: ago at the White House to make that case. But 299 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 1: the reality is the White House and the Democrats cannot 300 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 1: say anything without Joe Manchin. So you know, the point 301 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 1: is they have got to listen to what he is saying. 302 00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 1: He has been saying for some time. There are certain 303 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 1: aspects of the bill that he could see supporting. But 304 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 1: at this point, you know, I think he's grown a 305 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,720 Speaker 1: bit tired of and frustrated by the way he's been 306 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 1: treated by the Democrats. He's raised a boatload of money 307 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,840 Speaker 1: as as he's been going along, and I don't think he's, 308 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 1: you know, got any reason to turn around on this. 309 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,520 Speaker 1: So if they want to deal with Joe Manchin, why 310 00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 1: don't they start with the Electoral count Act, which he 311 00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 1: is gathering a bipartisan group to around and start getting 312 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 1: some wins on the table. Get him back in the fold, 313 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:47,680 Speaker 1: and they may be able to move forward. But at 314 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 1: this point it's a losing battle. Rick, you mentioned the 315 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 1: Innovation and Competition Act u SKA is what the wonks 316 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 1: call it. I'm understanding that Republicans in the House are 317 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 1: going to go against this, that Kevin McCarthy is telling 318 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 1: members to say no. Is that right? Well, I mean, 319 00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:06,879 Speaker 1: here's what's happened. The Democrats have shut out the Republicans 320 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 1: at any discussions around putting the bill together. Republicans have 321 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:12,200 Speaker 1: a number of provisions that they would really like to 322 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 1: see included that are actually, uh not offensive to most 323 00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 1: of the Democrats, but they can't get them into the bill. 324 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 1: So the problem that this is now starting to look 325 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 1: like is just a partisan fight on the floor of 326 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 1: the House rather than a bipartisan effort to try and 327 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 1: build the bill, unlike what happened in the Senate, where 328 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:33,439 Speaker 1: Republicans and Democrats sat down together crafted the bill they 329 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 1: both could could do. So the good news for Democrats 330 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 1: is they don't need the Republicans have passed this bill. 331 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,600 Speaker 1: The bad news is it's another step in the wrong direction. 332 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,119 Speaker 1: The bills that are making an impact in America today 333 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 1: are the bipartisan ones that are passed, and this is 334 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,159 Speaker 1: one that should be treated the same way. Wait, this 335 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: is starting to feel familiar, Genie. I mean now now 336 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy will be able to hold his briefing UH 337 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:56,360 Speaker 1: and do interviews on Sunday morning saying that Democrats shot 338 00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 1: out Republicans and negotiations. What else do you want? There's 339 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 1: your midterm election, your message. That's right, and and that's 340 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 1: why you know, Democrats have to go to remember that 341 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,640 Speaker 1: they have room to maneuver in some of these areas 342 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:12,880 Speaker 1: and they should be using that. And I go back 343 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,640 Speaker 1: to something like the Electoral count Act. As we look 344 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 1: at what's coming out in the last couple of days 345 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:20,639 Speaker 1: about President Trump and the election. That's an area we 346 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:22,879 Speaker 1: can all get behind. Why don't they move forward on 347 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 1: that and get a win and then move forward on 348 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:27,600 Speaker 1: other things as well. Rick and Jennie with a lot 349 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 1: more to talk about this hour. Our panel is intact 350 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 1: on the fastest hour in politics. We're gonna add Michael 351 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 1: Hardaway to the conversation next, founder of Hardaway Wire, with 352 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 1: the inside view on what's happening inside the House Democratic 353 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,040 Speaker 1: Caucus and what might see the light of day. Stay 354 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 1: with us sun Sound on this is Bloomberg. The fact 355 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 1: is it's not only build back better right you pull 356 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 1: the cameras out full, get the whole picture of what's 357 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 1: going on in Washington, d C. The Democratic agenda on 358 00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:03,400 Speaker 1: Capitol Hill is actually pretty full. All well, remember February eighteenth, 359 00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:05,560 Speaker 1: we told you about this. That's when the government runs 360 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 1: out of money and no, no one's talking about a 361 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:12,200 Speaker 1: government shutdown. But something's got to be done. That could 362 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 1: be a continuing resolution, and it looks like it's all 363 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,680 Speaker 1: on track to lead to an actual budget and omnibus 364 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:20,240 Speaker 1: budget and that could come with some other interesting things 365 00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 1: We've been asking a lot of people if there are 366 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,119 Speaker 1: any leftovers from Build Back Better that could end up 367 00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:27,520 Speaker 1: in there. It remains unclear. But there's more than that. 368 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 1: As we just talked about with Rick and Genie. The 369 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:35,359 Speaker 1: Electoral count Act appears to be moving through a bipartisan 370 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,720 Speaker 1: group here on the way to reform voting rights is 371 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 1: another matter. And then there's the chunk the leftovers as 372 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 1: we mentioned of Build Back Better, the Innovation and Competition Bill. 373 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 1: I mean, come on, this is a full buffet for Democrats. 374 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: And that's why we want to spend some time with 375 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 1: Michael Hardaway because the environment is not getting easier on 376 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 1: Capitol Hill. It's gonna get harder as we head for 377 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:02,399 Speaker 1: the midterm elections. He's the founder of Hardaway Wire Briefs 378 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 1: Political Intelligence to CEOs, former communications director for the House 379 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 1: Democratic Caucus and Congressman HACKEM Jeffreys. Michael, it's great to 380 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 1: have you back. What's the first order of business? Lawmakers? 381 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 1: Obviously you just got back into town yesterday. They need 382 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:18,480 Speaker 1: to get this budget done before we talk about the 383 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 1: rest or is it onto you? Seka? Well, are come 384 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 1: bearing good news and I come bearing bad news? You 385 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:28,360 Speaker 1: always do. The good news is there is some bipartisan 386 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 1: effort surrounding the Tonic Competition Bill. You can expect that 387 00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 1: that's coming to the floor this week for the House. 388 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:38,120 Speaker 1: You can expect that to move and eventually become law. 389 00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:41,440 Speaker 1: That is the good news. The other piece of good 390 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 1: news here is that looking a little further down the road, 391 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,360 Speaker 1: there won't be a government shutdown. We're essentially telling our 392 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:51,400 Speaker 1: CEOs that they likely would be a cr that leads 393 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,480 Speaker 1: into a larger omnibus budget, but there will not be 394 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:58,640 Speaker 1: a shutdown. Okay, so let's you okay, God, you're bringing 395 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:00,119 Speaker 1: me the bell. Okay, now let's go straight through it 396 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 1: ripped the band aid. The bad news is there is 397 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: no build back better. As we discussed multiple times last year, 398 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 1: they're unfortunately is zero percent chance that happens. And I'll 399 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 1: tell you why. The Senate and the House are too 400 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 1: vastly different places. Think of this like the financial services industry. 401 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 1: The House is like the investment bankers. The Senate is 402 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:24,680 Speaker 1: like the private equity guys. Right, and so whatever the 403 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:28,120 Speaker 1: Senate comes up with the House will not be satisfied. 404 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:32,439 Speaker 1: They'll want significantly more involved. If the House comes up 405 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,919 Speaker 1: with something the Senate will consider it to be entirely 406 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 1: too much, and so the for that particular reason, you 407 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: can't square that circle, and there will be no build 408 00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 1: back Better. And they're really for the most part, for 409 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 1: the balance of the year, you won't see much action. 410 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,119 Speaker 1: So it was the end of last year. I'm pretty 411 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 1: sure December. Michael Hardaway on this broadcast said if build 412 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 1: Back Better does not pass this month, it will not 413 00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 1: pass this year. And it's not going to pass this month. 414 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,400 Speaker 1: So here we are fast forward. What is it two 415 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,159 Speaker 1: months here? Michael? And people keep talking about chunks. The 416 00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 1: White House doesn't like us to talk about legislation as 417 00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:13,160 Speaker 1: a bunch of chunks. I guess it generates an image. 418 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,320 Speaker 1: But you know what I'm saying. You slice this thing up, 419 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 1: find a couple of winners, attach it to another piece 420 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,320 Speaker 1: of legislation, try to get it passed, and called it 421 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:24,159 Speaker 1: a win. Does that happen? If it were possible for 422 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 1: something to pass the Senate and become law, then it 423 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,159 Speaker 1: could happen. But that's not the way things work. I 424 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:34,159 Speaker 1: think there's bipartisan consensus around things like negotiating drug prices. 425 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 1: For instance, of Americans support that, So I think there 426 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 1: are facets that have bipartisan support, but none of these 427 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: things will happen, and I'll tell you why. And the 428 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 1: Senate you'll find consensus around that. But when you'll find 429 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,840 Speaker 1: in the House is that nothing will pass that doesn't 430 00:22:53,000 --> 00:23:00,160 Speaker 1: include significant environmental um sort of money and policies at 431 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 1: address climate change in a number of other items, and 432 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,040 Speaker 1: of course that would never pass the Senate. So what 433 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 1: you have is the House of Representatives that wants to 434 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 1: address climate change. If that is not included in whatever 435 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 1: legislation comes together, it will not pass the House. And 436 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: of course the Senate would never pass something that specifically 437 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 1: addresses climate change. At this particular moment, talk to me 438 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 1: about the leadership that was obviously your world, Michael, and 439 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:29,919 Speaker 1: you're flying pretty close to the sun on this one 440 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 1: because you were working for hackem Jeffreys. And there's a 441 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: big conversation going on right now among Democrats to prepare 442 00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,680 Speaker 1: for the post Pelosi era, as the Washington Post put it, 443 00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 1: that could be in a minority role as opposed to 444 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:44,960 Speaker 1: holding the gavel next year. But is hackem Jeffrey is 445 00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,159 Speaker 1: going to be the next leader in the House for Democrats? 446 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 1: It looks like it. The reality is that, you know, 447 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 1: Hikim is not only the party's best messenger, but in 448 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,280 Speaker 1: terms of getting things done, there are very few members 449 00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,200 Speaker 1: of Congress that can match Hiss. He's worked in a 450 00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:05,160 Speaker 1: bipartisan way to pass the number of bills from criminal 451 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 1: justice of forum to trade secrets to a number of 452 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 1: sort of trademark related pieces of legislation, and I think 453 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,120 Speaker 1: for that particular reason, he's got to be your quarterback. 454 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,320 Speaker 1: It takes the party into sort of this next era, 455 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 1: a heck of a time to take over. Will he 456 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 1: be holding the gavel or will he be minority leader 457 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 1: work in the opposition against a say, Speaker McCarthy. He'll 458 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,640 Speaker 1: be the latter, which is a much more fun job. 459 00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:35,640 Speaker 1: It's a Democrats will get crushed in the mid terms, 460 00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,680 Speaker 1: They'll get absolutely crushed, and he came will come in 461 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:42,159 Speaker 1: and he'll essentially be sort of the bomb thrower that 462 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,640 Speaker 1: from a messaging perspective, really drives the party's message while 463 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,600 Speaker 1: also trying to find ways to work with McCarthy, UH 464 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,480 Speaker 1: and Republican leadership where he can. I'll tell you what, 465 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,920 Speaker 1: Stanny Hoyer, Adam Schiff, I wonder if they're listening because 466 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:56,440 Speaker 1: there are a couple of other names on the list 467 00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,399 Speaker 1: and we'd love to stay in touch with you on 468 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 1: this one. Michael Hardaway, It's gonna take some time to 469 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,480 Speaker 1: figure this out. Michael, thanks for being back on Sound On. 470 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:06,440 Speaker 1: We're gonna go back to the panel next. We haven't 471 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,280 Speaker 1: even talked about Russia Ukraine yet, and there has been 472 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:12,119 Speaker 1: news today. We'll bring you in the room for this 473 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 1: conversation with Rick and Janie our panel on the Tuesday 474 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:17,920 Speaker 1: edition of Sound On. Market Check coming. We've got a 475 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 1: lot of earnings to pick through with Charlie Palett will 476 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 1: check traffic for you to get you home as well. 477 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 1: That's why you're here. The fastest hour in politics. This 478 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:33,199 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg. So long with Joe Matthew 479 00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:38,440 Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. So we heard back from the Russians. 480 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,880 Speaker 1: They are still not happy. The written response to our 481 00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:45,920 Speaker 1: letter from last week has been delivered. Vladimir Putin saying 482 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,040 Speaker 1: today in the news conference that the US and NATO 483 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:53,640 Speaker 1: ignored Moscow's security demands, which you might remember include binding 484 00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 1: agreements as they proposed to keep NATO from expanding end 485 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,800 Speaker 1: and up with defensive weapons near the Russian boorder non 486 00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:05,080 Speaker 1: starters for the administration. I talked about it earlier today, 487 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 1: this whole standoff on balance of power with Senator Mark Warner, 488 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,320 Speaker 1: Democrat from Virginia. He chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee. I 489 00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:14,399 Speaker 1: think we're gonna keep ratching up that pressure again. I 490 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,200 Speaker 1: think the next few weeks are going to be absolutely critical, 491 00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,080 Speaker 1: and I think Putin is starting to realize the downside 492 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 1: on this in terms of not only economic sanctions, but 493 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:27,880 Speaker 1: potentially Russia being the oligarchs that support Russia being hurt 494 00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 1: in the pocket books at a level that has been unprecedented. 495 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,720 Speaker 1: I hope he is giving him pause to reassemble the 496 00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:38,280 Speaker 1: panel with Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeannie Shenzano and Rick Davis. Rick, 497 00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:40,680 Speaker 1: what do you make of that? I thought that the 498 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,639 Speaker 1: next several weeks, the next two to three weeks, and 499 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:45,239 Speaker 1: this has to do with a lot of things from 500 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,359 Speaker 1: the Olympics to the weather, will be the most critical 501 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:51,200 Speaker 1: and possibly the most dangerous in this standoff. Yeah. Absolutely, 502 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 1: anything that leads up to either a provocation that requires 503 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin, uh, you know, demonstrators manhood, enroll those tanks, 504 00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 1: or that creates an opening uh to where he can 505 00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:07,920 Speaker 1: actually fall back and take his hand off the crisis button. Um, 506 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:10,639 Speaker 1: I think this really is. I think Mark Warner has 507 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,120 Speaker 1: it exactly right. This is this is the moment in time, 508 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:17,479 Speaker 1: with the Olympics going on, for everybody to get cooler heads, Genie. Um, 509 00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,680 Speaker 1: what makes us believe that Vladimir Putin would pull back? 510 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:25,200 Speaker 1: What has to happen for him to see the exit lane. Well, 511 00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:27,640 Speaker 1: listening to his statement today, the first time we've heard 512 00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,399 Speaker 1: from him since December, at least in my reading, there 513 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,920 Speaker 1: was no indication that he was willing, able or ready 514 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,640 Speaker 1: to back down at this point. You know, his statement 515 00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:41,359 Speaker 1: was very clear he wants to go back to that 516 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:46,760 Speaker 1: involves multiple countries withdrawing from the block. That's you know, 517 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,879 Speaker 1: not going to happen if that is what he is 518 00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,280 Speaker 1: sticking to and and he sounded very short today, that 519 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,840 Speaker 1: is what he's sticking to. Um, you know, it's sounded 520 00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,520 Speaker 1: to me like, um, you know, we are not in 521 00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 1: a position of diplomacy at this point, although he did 522 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 1: indicate he'd liked the communication to continue. And you know, 523 00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:07,720 Speaker 1: I know Senator Warner is saying the next two to 524 00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,600 Speaker 1: three weeks are critical. They certainly are, but I am 525 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 1: not even convinced that after that this will be something 526 00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,719 Speaker 1: that subsides. This has been Putin's stated goal since before 527 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:20,679 Speaker 1: he took office, and I don't see it subsiding at 528 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 1: any point in the future. It may have been flow 529 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:25,440 Speaker 1: depending on whether and other events, but he's going to 530 00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,719 Speaker 1: come right back to what we've seen that since genius, right, Rick, 531 00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:33,480 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin said, I hope that dialogue will continue. Is 532 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,600 Speaker 1: that just happy talk? You know? I don't think it's 533 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:40,200 Speaker 1: happy talk. He's a master of manipulation, right, So he's 534 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,120 Speaker 1: got to always have an off ramp. He's always got 535 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,520 Speaker 1: to have some way of saying it was never his 536 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:47,720 Speaker 1: fault that the Americans caved or something like that. I 537 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 1: would say, we're entering a really important period, as Mark 538 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 1: Warner says, but like for a particularly different reasons nobody's 539 00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,360 Speaker 1: been talking about. And that is Vladimir Putin's going to 540 00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,080 Speaker 1: the Olympics and going to hang out with his other 541 00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,600 Speaker 1: communist buddy chi and and is going to have a 542 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:03,560 Speaker 1: big influence on what he does. And all of a sudden, 543 00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:06,120 Speaker 1: whether or not Huawei can get business in Ukraine is 544 00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,040 Speaker 1: going to be an important thing for the for the 545 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,960 Speaker 1: Chinese government. Do they want more instability or do they 546 00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,080 Speaker 1: want less? And I think that I'd love to hear 547 00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,600 Speaker 1: the first interview with G, which of course he won't give, 548 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,400 Speaker 1: asking him what his advice of Vladimir Putin is going 549 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 1: to be. It's interesting where China is on all of 550 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:25,640 Speaker 1: this genius statement from China's Foreign Minister Wang Ye saying 551 00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:30,560 Speaker 1: Russia's legitimate security concerns should be taken seriously and should 552 00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:33,720 Speaker 1: be addressed. What does that mean when China is looking 553 00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,880 Speaker 1: the other way or almost tacitly approving this behavior on 554 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 1: the international stage, That means they would very much like 555 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:44,000 Speaker 1: to substitute in Taiwan for the Ukraine and say they're 556 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:48,480 Speaker 1: legitimate security concerns. This is the playbook, and I think 557 00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 1: we see it with G. I think we see it 558 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 1: as we look to North Korea. I think we see 559 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 1: it as we looked to Putin. I mean, this is 560 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:56,760 Speaker 1: what the president has been warning about, and he's not 561 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,920 Speaker 1: alone and others have about this fight in the twenty 562 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:03,760 Speaker 1: first century between autocracy and democracy. It is heating up 563 00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:07,080 Speaker 1: and it is not going to subside. These these uh 564 00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,320 Speaker 1: you know, as Rick called them, What did you call Himrick? 565 00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:12,640 Speaker 1: Communist buddies, however you want to describe them. They certainly 566 00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,960 Speaker 1: are working together in concert. And I don't think that's 567 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 1: going to change even after the Olympics. They're going to 568 00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:22,840 Speaker 1: keep at it. Will he be emboldened after his sare 569 00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,360 Speaker 1: with she Rick? Well, I think he wakes up every 570 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,240 Speaker 1: morning in bolden Uka thanks that he's running circles around 571 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:31,560 Speaker 1: the west and uh and and look, maybe this is 572 00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:35,160 Speaker 1: a time to focus the attention in the world on this, 573 00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:38,640 Speaker 1: this combination of China and Russia. I mean, George Bush 574 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,440 Speaker 1: started his administration talking about the access of evil. I 575 00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:45,040 Speaker 1: can't imagine a better time right now, just to basically 576 00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 1: wake up the world while they're all in China and say, 577 00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 1: look at look at the future. If that's what you want, 578 00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,280 Speaker 1: they're gonna be decisions that will be needed to be made. 579 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,800 Speaker 1: Nobody's talking about troops anymore, right, I mean, we we 580 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:59,040 Speaker 1: had the five hundred troops that could be deployed in 581 00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:01,200 Speaker 1: Eastern Europe. I said, as that could happen, according to 582 00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 1: the President pretty much any time. Maybe that's just posturing. 583 00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 1: But we're done talking about hot wars here right this 584 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 1: this conversation, Genie's evolved a lot last couple of weeks 585 00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,239 Speaker 1: may take me in and give me the reality check 586 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,880 Speaker 1: if I'm wrong. Now, I think you're right about that, 587 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:16,880 Speaker 1: although I think it's left on the table and it 588 00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:20,120 Speaker 1: depends an awful lot on how events unfold, and you 589 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,960 Speaker 1: know what putin does. But I do think it's something 590 00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,480 Speaker 1: the President put out there. He hasn't quite removed it. 591 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:27,720 Speaker 1: It may not be in the offering in the near future. 592 00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,440 Speaker 1: But you know, as we think about it, so much 593 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:34,760 Speaker 1: of President Biden's both foreign and domestic policy agenda is 594 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,280 Speaker 1: wrapped up at this. You know, you were just talking 595 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,600 Speaker 1: to uh to Michael about the competition bill that is 596 00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,160 Speaker 1: all designed for US to be able to compete with 597 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,760 Speaker 1: China on semiconductors and everything else. So you know, I 598 00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:52,520 Speaker 1: think this defines the President's administration in ways we you know, 599 00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,760 Speaker 1: historians are going to be talking about both domestically and 600 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:59,160 Speaker 1: foreign policy wise. Well, I don't know where the next 601 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,120 Speaker 1: attorney is he for this White House rick outside of 602 00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:05,200 Speaker 1: the normal you know, press secretary briefings and so forth. 603 00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:08,640 Speaker 1: But is it not time to do something to be 604 00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,880 Speaker 1: noticed for Joe Biden and or we just waiting for 605 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:14,760 Speaker 1: our European allies to get on board here and start 606 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,160 Speaker 1: talking more about sanctions. There's nothing we can do to 607 00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:20,200 Speaker 1: shake Vladimir Putin right now. Yeah, I mean, look, this 608 00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,200 Speaker 1: White House has done everything they could to tamp down 609 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:24,920 Speaker 1: sanctions in their own Congress, so it's not likely that 610 00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:28,040 Speaker 1: that's going to echo across Europe. I mean, really the 611 00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,200 Speaker 1: holdout is is the Germans on sanctions, and and I 612 00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:35,080 Speaker 1: think right now they've probably smartly decided the more we push, 613 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,120 Speaker 1: the more likely it is an announcement that they're not 614 00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 1: going to go for a sanction against nord Stream too, 615 00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:43,240 Speaker 1: and then that undercuts are our rhetoric. So um, I 616 00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,560 Speaker 1: think you can believe what Joe Biden tells you. He's 617 00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:48,120 Speaker 1: gonna hit the road and talk about infrastructure and you know, 618 00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,000 Speaker 1: until he's got something to say about this. Uh, but 619 00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,600 Speaker 1: I still believe he should address the country and the 620 00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:59,360 Speaker 1: world and and put the real situation in perspective from 621 00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,440 Speaker 1: from a perspective of freedom and liberty and not one 622 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 1: of politics. Are we done with meetings, Genie, We're gonna 623 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,960 Speaker 1: hear about Joe Biden Vladimir Putin do wing a video 624 00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:09,560 Speaker 1: call at some point in the next couple of weeks, 625 00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 1: you know, I think they should keep talking. I don't 626 00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,080 Speaker 1: think we had no of any plans at this point. 627 00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:17,360 Speaker 1: The Putin said, you know, he hopes they keep talking. 628 00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:19,840 Speaker 1: Joe Biden has long said he will meet with and 629 00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 1: talk with people even if he doesn't agree with them. 630 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:26,200 Speaker 1: But I'm not convinced that that will make much headway, right, 631 00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,959 Speaker 1: I mean, at this point, it seems that they are 632 00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:32,160 Speaker 1: dug in. I mean, Putin was very clear today that 633 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:35,200 Speaker 1: he is not backing down from these demands, and certainly 634 00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 1: the United States and NATO are not. And we shouldn't 635 00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:42,080 Speaker 1: forget about President Biden's meeting with the Qatari a mere yesterday. 636 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,600 Speaker 1: That is critical component of this entire discussion as it 637 00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,880 Speaker 1: pertains to energy, oil Germany and trying to shore up 638 00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,680 Speaker 1: the energy resources that are needed in a Europe which 639 00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:54,640 Speaker 1: is a you know, increased cross three for energy this 640 00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:59,480 Speaker 1: last year alone, three words liquefied natural gas. Prime Minister 641 00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:03,040 Speaker 1: Boris Johnson's going to Ukraine, Rick Uh, He's gonna be 642 00:34:03,120 --> 00:34:06,400 Speaker 1: sitting down with Zelenski. According to Downing Street, do we 643 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:11,440 Speaker 1: need constant travel like that, more Codel's from Washington, more 644 00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:15,160 Speaker 1: leaders like this to keep Ukraine on the mainstream level, 645 00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,399 Speaker 1: keep the eyes and cameras on Ukraine. Absolutely. I think 646 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,799 Speaker 1: that this this is the time, as Mark Warner said, 647 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:25,680 Speaker 1: to really push the advantage that the world has to 648 00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:30,000 Speaker 1: bring eyeballs into Ukraine. These are free people. Russia wants 649 00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,680 Speaker 1: to put them under their their their tords. So uh 650 00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:35,480 Speaker 1: and and and Boris Johnson, with all his faults, he's 651 00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,880 Speaker 1: been completely consistent and very outfront on this. He's been 652 00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:41,560 Speaker 1: the leader of the Western Caucus, you know, uh and 653 00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,400 Speaker 1: and talking about you know, why we need to defend Ukraine. 654 00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:47,480 Speaker 1: So more power to him. But I just think we 655 00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:49,840 Speaker 1: need to see this administration take the same tact. They 656 00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:54,960 Speaker 1: have good parties in Ukraine. Don't answer that, Rick and 657 00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,879 Speaker 1: Jennie our panel on sound On, thanks to you both, 658 00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:01,440 Speaker 1: Jetzo and Rick Davis. Don't mind me. I'll make you 659 00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:03,920 Speaker 1: back here tomorrow sound On and David West will be 660 00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:07,440 Speaker 1: back on Balance of Power. February is Black History Month, 661 00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:10,520 Speaker 1: and every day this month we're celebrating significant moments in 662 00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:15,520 Speaker 1: US black history. Bring you your installment now for February one, 663 00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,200 Speaker 1: that's today. Here's Bloomberg's Renita Young